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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


USC

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:39
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)BWH84-42W100%0.0
11-13North Dakota St. (210.0)SumH75-65W100%0.0
11-19Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA89-93W100%0.0
11-22Lehigh (214.0)PatH88-63W100%0.0
11-26Texas A&M (29.0)SECH59-75L0%0.0
12-2SMU (113.0)AmerA72-55L0%0.0
12-8Oklahoma (49.0)B12N83-85L0%0.0
12-14Santa Clara (264.0)WCCH82-59W100%0.0
12-17UC Santa Barbara (127.0)BWH98-87W100%0.0
12-19Princeton (226.0)IvyH93-103L0%0.0
12-22Akron (227.0)MACN84-53W100%0.0
12-23Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAN89-84W100%0.0
12-25New Mexico St. (35.0)WACN72-77W100%0.0
12-29Washington (71.0)P12H81-88L0%0.0
12-31Washington St. (179.0)P12H89-71W100%0.0
1-4California (216.0)P12A62-80W100%0.0
1-7Stanford (86.0)P12A77-76L0%0.0
1-10Colorado (82.0)P12H70-58W100%0.0
1-14Utah (59.0)P12H84-67W100%0.0
1-18Oregon (72.0)P12A70-75W100%0.0
1-20Oregon St. (137.0)P12A67-74W100%0.0
1-24Stanford (86.0)P12H69-64W100%0.0
1-28California (216.0)P12H77-59W100%0.0
2-3UCLA (36.0)P12A82-79L0%0.0
2-8Arizona St. (66.0)P12A80-78L0%0.0
2-10Arizona (13.0)P12A81-67L0%0.0
2-15Oregon (72.0)P12H72-70W100%0.0
2-17Oregon St. (137.0)P12H72-59W100%0.0
2-21Colorado (82.0)P12A64-75W100%0.0
2-24Utah (59.0)P12A58-74W100%0.0
3-3UCLA (36.0)P12H72-83L0%0.0
3-8Oregon St. (137.0)P12N61-48W100%0.0
3-9Oregon (72.0)P12N74-54W100%0.0
3-10Arizona (13.0)P12N75-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USCP1226.3426.3466.0366.038.448.44
OregonP125.155.1570.9770.972.162.16
Oregon St.P125.075.0755.1755.170.520.52
ArizonaP123.893.8978.1278.122.192.19
UCLAP123.783.7863.3363.331.011.01
StanfordP123.683.6854.8454.840.360.36
ColoradoP123.653.6556.6756.670.490.49
CaliforniaP123.653.6527.5927.59-1.64-1.64
UtahP123.643.6467.8667.861.301.30
Arizona St.P122.362.3663.3363.330.630.63
WashingtonP122.342.3461.2961.290.530.53
Washington St.P122.342.3440.0040.00-0.47-0.47
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.571.5772.4172.410.700.70
Cal St. FullertonBW1.571.5764.2964.290.450.45
Texas A&MSEC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
PrincetonIvy1.541.5440.7440.74-0.29-0.29
VanderbiltSEC1.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
North Dakota St.Sum1.541.5442.8642.86-0.22-0.22
OklahomaB121.541.5456.6756.670.200.20
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.521.5279.3179.310.890.89
SMUAmer1.511.5150.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC1.501.5043.3343.33-0.20-0.20
LehighPat1.501.5053.5753.570.110.11
New Mexico St.WAC1.471.4786.2186.211.061.06
Santa ClaraWCC1.471.4735.7135.71-0.42-0.42
Long Beach St.BW0.350.3541.9441.94-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.290.2924.1424.14-0.15-0.15
UC IrvineBW0.240.2448.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
HawaiiBW0.180.1853.5753.570.010.01
UC DavisBW0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
KansasB120.160.1679.4179.410.100.10
AlabamaSEC0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
DenverSum0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
UTEPCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
FloridaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
South DakotaSum0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.108.008.00-0.08-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MontanaBSky0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
WyomingMWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0615.6215.62-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0478.7978.790.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.040.0471.4371.430.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
PurdueB100.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01