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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


USC

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:34.7
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:33
Current Record:15-6
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-612.10.43%
24-716.23.47%
23-821.313.19%
22-927.723.32%
21-1035.027.47%
20-1143.320.70%
19-1252.18.45%
18-1361.92.57%
17-1473.90.38%
15-1696.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cal St. Fullerton (160.5)BWH84-42W100%0.0
11-13North Dakota St. (167.6)SumH75-65W100%0.0
11-19Vanderbilt (140.3)SECA89-93W100%0.0
11-22Lehigh (237.6)PatH88-63W100%0.0
11-26Texas A&M (29.4)SECH59-75L0%0.0
12-2SMU (41.6)AmerA72-55L0%0.0
12-8Oklahoma (22.3)B12N83-85L0%0.0
12-14Santa Clara (258.4)WCCH82-59W100%0.0
12-17UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH98-87W100%0.0
12-19Princeton (140.5)IvyH93-103L0%0.0
12-22Akron (214.2)MACN84-53W100%0.0
12-23Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAN89-84W100%0.0
12-25New Mexico St. (43.2)WACN72-77W100%0.0
12-29Washington (76.1)P12H81-88L0%0.0
12-31Washington St. (171.8)P12H89-71W100%0.0
1-4California (190.8)P12A62-80W100%0.0
1-7Stanford (89.4)P12A77-76L0%0.0
1-10Colorado (84.5)P12H70-58W100%0.0
1-14Utah (67.2)P12H84-67W100%0.0
1-18Oregon (68.5)P12A70-75W100%0.0
1-20Oregon St. (144.1)P12A67-74W100%0.0
1-24Stanford (89.4)P12H0-081%9.6
1-28California (190.8)P12H0-094%17.3
2-3UCLA (63.3)P12A0-044%-1.7
2-8Arizona St. (31.6)P12A0-036%-4.0
2-10Arizona (16.0)P12A0-028%-6.6
2-15Oregon (68.5)P12H0-067%4.9
2-17Oregon St. (144.1)P12H0-084%11.0
2-21Colorado (84.5)P12A0-064%4.1
2-24Utah (67.2)P12A0-053%0.9
3-3UCLA (63.3)P12H0-067%4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USCP1226.3526.2267.6866.429.328.61
UCLAP120.493.9765.0063.290.151.06
CaliforniaP122.643.9038.8933.12-0.59-1.31
OregonP122.633.8968.4267.070.971.33
ColoradoP122.633.8763.1656.280.690.49
StanfordP122.573.8752.6349.690.14-0.02
Oregon St.P122.563.8661.1153.920.570.30
UtahP122.633.8666.6762.410.880.96
ArizonaP120.552.5080.0079.160.331.46
Arizona St.P120.432.4478.9576.580.251.30
WashingtonP122.692.4268.4260.180.990.49
Washington St.P122.682.4150.0042.860.00-0.34
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.581.7375.0072.211.290.77
Cal St. FullertonBW2.511.7260.0059.090.500.31
PrincetonIvy2.581.7050.0058.750.000.30
Texas A&MSEC2.451.6966.6762.770.820.43
VanderbiltSEC2.451.6938.8936.76-0.54-0.45
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.511.6776.4777.391.330.91
North Dakota St.Sum2.451.6747.0652.24-0.140.07
OklahomaB122.441.6676.4766.931.290.56
AkronMAC2.451.6450.0046.530.00-0.11
LehighPat2.451.6441.1846.40-0.43-0.12
SMUAmer2.381.6468.4269.630.880.64
New Mexico St.WAC2.381.6188.2487.491.821.21
Santa ClaraWCC2.381.6135.2934.18-0.70-0.51
Cal PolyBW0.460.3123.5328.20-0.24-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.260.3140.0043.34-0.05-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.210.2330.0039.95-0.08-0.05
HawaiiBW0.200.2068.7564.010.080.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.330.2090.4888.970.270.16
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.320.1925.0039.91-0.16-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.250.1958.8263.210.040.05
KansasB120.120.1884.2179.760.080.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.1717.6519.29-0.04-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.210.1717.6523.84-0.13-0.09
UC DavisBW0.200.1758.8262.450.030.04
San DiegoWCC0.200.1763.1657.530.050.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.1727.7829.10-0.12-0.07
SeattleWAC0.250.1757.8954.500.040.01
DenverSum0.190.1733.3336.47-0.06-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.200.1750.0048.730.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1645.0049.28-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.130.1673.6868.040.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.260.1433.3334.10-0.09-0.05
BYUWCC0.200.1480.9576.240.120.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.1425.0028.02-0.10-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.1429.4133.20-0.03-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.190.1445.0048.57-0.02-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.1445.0044.49-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1445.0041.31-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.190.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.130.1361.1158.710.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1338.8946.05-0.04-0.01
MissouriSEC0.130.1366.6763.150.040.04
Kansas St.B120.190.1375.0065.320.100.04
Wichita St.Amer0.190.1378.9577.380.110.07
AlabamaSEC0.130.1368.4259.020.050.02
FloridaSEC0.180.1373.6871.600.090.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.1266.6766.030.070.04
PortlandWCC0.210.1227.7827.26-0.09-0.05
South DakotaSum0.070.1173.6872.400.030.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1172.2272.970.060.05
PepperdineWCC0.200.1110.5318.34-0.16-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1145.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.1144.4444.91-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1133.3339.89-0.06-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.117.1414.82-0.16-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1172.2258.880.060.02
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1158.8262.830.020.03
MontanaBSky0.190.1170.5973.150.080.05
CincinnatiAmer0.060.1189.4785.550.050.08
TCUB120.190.1175.0067.830.100.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.1068.4264.160.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.1052.6347.380.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.130.1061.1153.190.030.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0937.5046.70-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.140.0952.6351.680.010.00
Miami FLACC0.200.0977.7870.410.110.04
LafayettePat0.140.0922.2227.46-0.08-0.04
YaleIvy0.070.0941.1847.61-0.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.130.0866.6763.070.040.02
GonzagaWCC0.190.0880.9583.260.120.06
MarshallCUSA0.140.0868.4263.610.050.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.080.0010.26-0.13-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0866.6755.900.020.01
MaristMAAC0.130.0821.0521.99-0.07-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0811.1115.30-0.05-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.130.0872.2274.940.060.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0873.6865.250.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.0868.4270.820.050.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0847.3742.16-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0885.7180.060.040.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0889.4776.990.050.04
BelmontOVC0.190.0871.4374.670.080.04
Oklahoma St.B120.190.0868.4254.040.070.01
West VirginiaB120.130.0880.0076.040.080.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0820.0040.93-0.07-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.120.0878.9576.980.070.04
TennesseeSEC0.130.0872.2268.930.060.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.0616.6724.44-0.10-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.06-0.07-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.220.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.130.0670.0068.290.050.02
North DakotaBSky0.130.0629.4134.78-0.05-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.54-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.760.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0642.8635.220.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.140.0658.8261.440.020.01
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0026.03-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.070.0661.1160.440.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0650.0053.280.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0661.9068.000.020.02
ColgatePat0.070.0650.0051.030.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.0633.3333.23-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.340.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.070.0630.0032.58-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0622.2228.660.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0627.7841.03-0.06-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0660.0055.160.010.01
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.690.020.01
PittsburghACC0.140.0640.0030.88-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0620.0032.24-0.04-0.02
IdahoBSky0.130.0664.7166.850.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0650.0051.640.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.740.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0657.8966.270.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.280.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0647.0641.380.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.430.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.47-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0666.6767.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.150.010.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0645.0045.47-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.130.0594.7486.110.120.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0544.4446.66-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0541.1839.66-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0537.5031.78-0.01-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0557.8953.280.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0070.720.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0521.0525.990.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0555.0048.980.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0531.5832.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0552.6343.040.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0543.7540.91-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0547.6243.94-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0557.8946.220.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0570.0068.210.030.02
MercerSC0.060.0544.4454.87-0.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0576.1970.800.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0558.8257.130.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0535.0031.82-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0547.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0526.3230.450.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0537.5033.77-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.000.0565.0058.600.000.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.750.040.02
VCUA100.060.0560.0059.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.000.0550.0046.270.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.060.0568.7563.660.020.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0561.1156.790.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.0550.0052.500.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0515.7922.64-0.04-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.059.5217.86-0.05-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.30-0.01-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0542.1132.460.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0566.6763.450.020.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0578.9573.000.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0576.1972.570.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.210.020.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0581.8276.870.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0561.1151.910.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0535.0026.13-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.120.0563.1657.870.030.01
UCFAmer0.060.0568.4260.830.020.01
UMBCAE0.060.0555.5655.550.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0310.0019.62-0.05-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.870.040.02
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.31-0.04-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.57-0.04-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.650.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.98-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.120.050.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.11-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.05-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.93-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0331.5836.23-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.710.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.57-0.04-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6747.00-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.67-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.960.030.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.770.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.680.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.48-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.46-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.250.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.060.0327.7829.82-0.03-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0316.6716.150.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0317.6527.34-0.04-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.035.8819.39-0.06-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0316.6724.90-0.04-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0326.6729.12-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.24-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.350.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0366.6773.220.020.01
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.820.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.020.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.390.000.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0357.8958.880.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0331.5836.43-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0375.0067.910.030.01
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.740.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0352.6358.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0370.0060.400.020.01