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Through games of Jan 19, 2017.


USC

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:41.3
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:59
Current Record:16-4
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-415.30.03%
26-521.10.54%
25-625.13.91%
24-729.313.57%
23-834.726.10%
22-942.028.69%
21-1051.218.61%
20-1162.46.71%
19-1275.51.65%
18-1386.90.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Montana (183.6)BSkyH75-61W100%0.0
11-13Nebraska Omaha (150.0)SumH82-72W100%0.0
11-18Texas A&M (108.0)SECA63-65W100%0.0
11-22New Orleans (198.2)SlndH88-54W100%0.0
11-25SMU (29.1)AmerH78-73W100%0.0
11-27UC Santa Barbara (291.1)BWH96-72W100%0.0
11-30San Diego (174.5)WCCA55-76W100%0.0
12-3BYU (67.4)WCCN91-84W100%0.0
12-11Pepperdine (253.9)WCCH93-67W100%0.0
12-17Troy (196.9)SBH82-77W100%0.0
12-19Cornell (288.8)IvyH79-67W100%0.0
12-22Missouri St. (161.7)MVCN75-83W100%0.0
12-23Wyoming (127.9)MWCN94-92W100%0.0
12-28Oregon St. (282.1)P12A63-70W100%0.0
12-30Oregon (12.4)P12A84-61L0%0.0
1-5Stanford (85.9)P12H72-56W100%0.0
1-8California (57.1)P12H73-74L0%0.0
1-12Utah (62.1)P12A86-64L0%0.0
1-15Colorado (125.5)P12A68-71W100%0.0
1-19Arizona (11.1)P12H66-73L0%0.0
1-22Arizona St. (127.2)P12H0-080%9.4
1-25UCLA (15.8)P12H0-030%-5.8
2-1Washington (139.0)P12A0-054%1.0
2-4Washington St. (190.4)P12A0-081%9.7
2-9Oregon St. (282.1)P12H0-095%18.1
2-11Oregon (12.4)P12H0-031%-5.5
2-18UCLA (15.8)P12A0-014%-12.0
2-23Arizona (11.1)P12A0-017%-10.6
2-26Arizona St. (127.2)P12A0-061%3.2
3-1Washington St. (190.4)P12H0-092%15.9
3-4Washington (139.0)P12H0-074%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USCP1226.4226.2277.7869.9914.6810.48
UCLAP120.654.0695.0090.500.583.29
Washington St.P120.503.9847.0634.89-0.03-1.20
ArizonaP122.863.9588.8984.022.222.69
Arizona St.P120.353.9347.3745.55-0.02-0.35
WashingtonP120.343.9250.0043.930.00-0.48
OregonP122.703.9088.2483.352.062.60
Oregon St.P122.643.8717.6514.45-1.71-2.75
ColoradoP122.712.4052.9454.710.160.23
CaliforniaP122.712.3966.6763.220.900.63
StanfordP122.702.3958.8249.780.48-0.01
UtahP122.642.3766.6766.440.880.78
MontanaBSky2.791.8152.6360.220.150.37
San DiegoWCC2.721.8052.9445.240.16-0.17
BYUWCC2.711.7573.6870.991.280.74
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.701.7514.2928.13-1.93-0.76
WyomingMWC2.851.7568.7559.781.070.34
PepperdineWCC2.691.7523.5321.94-1.43-0.98
Texas A&MSEC2.571.7256.2552.780.320.10
SMUAmer2.651.6784.2180.401.821.02
TroySB2.661.6750.0049.800.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd2.501.6753.8555.090.190.17
CornellIvy2.651.6721.4325.49-1.51-0.82
Nebraska OmahaSum2.581.6455.5655.080.290.17
Missouri St.MVC2.501.6166.6761.650.830.38
PortlandWCC0.210.3047.0640.46-0.01-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.270.2747.3745.82-0.01-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.140.27100.0097.310.140.25
San FranciscoWCC0.370.2563.1660.550.100.05
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2526.3236.97-0.11-0.06
PacificWCC0.270.2436.8435.69-0.07-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.220.2218.7527.05-0.14-0.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.2037.5037.70-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.1988.8987.300.160.14
UC RiversideBW0.140.1721.4330.90-0.08-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1737.5044.22-0.04-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.140.1733.3340.47-0.05-0.03
NevadaMWC0.230.1784.2178.670.150.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.1653.3361.580.020.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.1647.0644.31-0.01-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.210.1658.8254.690.040.02
UNLVMWC0.140.1647.3743.68-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.1688.8987.510.060.12
UC IrvineBW0.210.1452.6360.230.010.03
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1446.6738.47-0.01-0.03
TulsaAmer0.160.1458.8251.180.030.00
IdahoBSky0.130.1440.0044.97-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.130.1462.5063.130.030.04
TulaneAmer0.150.1422.2220.61-0.08-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.1320.0024.23-0.04-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1358.8264.370.020.04
Weber St.BSky0.260.1350.0061.630.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1335.2939.23-0.04-0.03
TCUB120.060.1376.4763.610.030.04
Portland St.BSky0.130.1357.1457.200.020.02
HawaiiBW0.150.1243.7546.21-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1121.0528.90-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.230.1143.7543.98-0.03-0.01
DenverSum0.210.1157.8955.930.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.1131.5833.42-0.08-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1157.1465.320.000.03
SeattleWAC0.150.1140.0037.09-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1122.2229.91-0.07-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.130.1160.0066.100.030.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1140.0044.67-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1152.9450.610.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.210.1141.1837.56-0.04-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.1161.1159.640.010.02
CreightonBE0.000.1194.4484.720.000.07
New MexicoMWC0.070.1157.8958.030.010.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.1116.6720.44-0.05-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1125.0031.86-0.07-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.200.1177.7877.230.110.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1135.2941.78-0.04-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.1129.4125.95-0.03-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1131.2536.85-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0940.0051.38-0.020.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0940.0038.61-0.01-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0952.9455.040.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0928.5733.63-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.150.0952.9454.690.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.0962.5062.700.040.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0958.3361.520.010.02
LamarSlnd0.160.0846.6747.34-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0864.7162.600.040.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0877.7862.320.040.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0855.0054.820.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.0817.6535.32-0.10-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.0831.5835.66-0.08-0.02
DePaulBE0.210.0842.1130.40-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.200.0833.3335.89-0.07-0.02
Little RockSB0.070.0856.2551.110.010.00
ButlerBE0.140.0884.2178.340.100.05
HoustonAmer0.080.0868.4268.050.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0864.7157.690.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0870.5958.260.060.01
TennesseeSEC0.140.0847.0648.42-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0888.2484.500.050.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.0858.8260.280.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0812.5022.05-0.09-0.04
MichiganB100.060.0863.1658.150.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.0831.2538.34-0.05-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0628.5734.64-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0625.0034.03-0.04-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.0642.8650.50-0.020.00
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0043.270.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0646.1546.12-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4323.10-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0664.7166.920.020.02
IUPUISum0.070.0638.8943.17-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0642.8647.99-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0626.6727.54-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.150.0672.2267.680.070.02
AlbanyAE0.150.0552.6358.990.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0522.2225.61-0.08-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.0557.1458.890.020.01
PittsburghACC0.130.0563.1651.640.030.00
Seton HallBE0.140.0566.6758.210.050.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.056.2511.89-0.12-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0577.7870.280.040.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0564.7165.930.000.02
ArmyPat0.070.0538.8942.65-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0594.1280.860.060.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0536.8433.57-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0543.7543.70-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.140.0516.6718.29-0.09-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0529.4127.72-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.0541.1846.17-0.03-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0544.4443.59-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0552.6348.220.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0562.5060.090.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0553.3355.960.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0577.7878.450.040.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0547.0648.06-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0525.0028.40-0.03-0.02
LSUSEC0.070.0552.9438.790.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0543.7541.37-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0552.6347.710.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0553.3346.010.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0568.7570.280.030.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0543.7538.29-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0544.4442.61-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0547.3745.09-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0578.9582.980.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0543.7543.72-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0561.1155.020.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.140.0535.2928.99-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0588.8986.530.050.04
DavidsonA100.000.0552.9453.550.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0547.3741.51-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0561.1163.050.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0573.6867.210.030.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0563.1657.640.020.01
NebraskaB100.000.0547.0641.69-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0563.1658.000.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0578.9576.900.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0540.0040.82-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0550.0053.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0550.0066.280.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0533.3328.99-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0328.5741.75-0.04-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0323.0830.70-0.05-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0378.9569.150.050.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0352.9450.570.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0362.5063.240.020.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0357.8962.450.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0335.2937.33-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.080.0321.0527.28-0.05-0.01
IowaB100.070.0355.0049.300.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0364.7161.810.020.01
LafayettePat0.080.0329.4123.73-0.03-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0373.6874.190.040.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0363.1659.510.020.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0358.8264.790.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0340.0045.17-0.02-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0357.8952.530.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.080.0340.0040.47-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0338.8939.96-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0375.0074.450.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0312.5024.38-0.05-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0356.2551.890.010.00
KansasB120.070.0394.4481.780.060.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0370.5960.550.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0325.0029.15-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0364.7160.060.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6762.880.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0318.7527.91-0.05-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0321.4336.54-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0327.7830.70-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.50-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6755.390.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7874.910.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0364.7158.500.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0352.6352.910.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0364.7169.700.020.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0384.2176.530.050.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0382.3574.990.050.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0314.2929.28-0.05-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0335.2944.15-0.02-0.00
TexasB120.070.0338.8935.40-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.310.020.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0382.3576.310.040.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0377.7862.530.040.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
WoffordSC0.070.0331.2540.50-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0317.6529.61-0.04-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0341.1849.24-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.060.0361.1153.430.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0322.2227.20-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0368.4252.190.020.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0350.0057.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0327.7824.33-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0311.7618.02-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0377.7867.010.000.01