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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


USC

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:40.0
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:72
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-940.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Montana (221.0)BSkyH75-61W100%0.0
11-13Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH82-72W100%0.0
11-18Texas A&M (92.0)SECA63-65W100%0.0
11-22New Orleans (154.0)SlndH88-54W100%0.0
11-25SMU (13.0)AmerH78-73W100%0.0
11-27UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH96-72W100%0.0
11-30San Diego (205.0)WCCA55-76W100%0.0
12-3BYU (65.0)WCCN91-84W100%0.0
12-11Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH93-67W100%0.0
12-17Troy (147.0)SBH82-77W100%0.0
12-19Cornell (270.0)IvyH79-67W100%0.0
12-22Missouri St. (210.0)MVCN75-83W100%0.0
12-23Wyoming (152.0)MWCN94-92W100%0.0
12-28Oregon St. (280.0)P12A63-70W100%0.0
12-30Oregon (9.0)P12A84-61L0%0.0
1-5Stanford (100.0)P12H72-56W100%0.0
1-8California (53.0)P12H73-74L0%0.0
1-12Utah (83.0)P12A86-64L0%0.0
1-15Colorado (99.0)P12A68-71W100%0.0
1-19Arizona (2.0)P12H66-73L0%0.0
1-22Arizona St. (125.0)P12H82-79W100%0.0
1-25UCLA (16.0)P12H84-76W100%0.0
2-1Washington (211.0)P12A74-82W100%0.0
2-4Washington St. (159.0)P12A77-86W100%0.0
2-9Oregon St. (280.0)P12H92-66W100%0.0
2-11Oregon (9.0)P12H70-81L0%0.0
2-18UCLA (16.0)P12A102-70L0%0.0
2-23Arizona (2.0)P12A90-77L0%0.0
2-26Arizona St. (125.0)P12A83-82L0%0.0
3-1Washington St. (159.0)P12H87-64W100%0.0
3-4Washington (211.0)P12H74-58W100%0.0
3-8Washington (211.0)P12N78-73W100%0.0
3-9UCLA (16.0)P12N76-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


USC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  USC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
USCP1226.3226.3271.7271.7211.4311.43
UCLAP125.385.3890.0090.004.314.31
WashingtonP125.215.2132.1432.14-1.86-1.86
ArizonaP123.913.9187.5087.502.932.93
Arizona St.P123.823.8245.1645.16-0.37-0.37
OregonP123.813.8183.8783.872.582.58
Washington St.P123.813.8142.8642.86-0.54-0.54
Oregon St.P123.693.6913.7913.79-2.67-2.67
ColoradoP122.382.3858.0658.060.380.38
CaliforniaP122.372.3762.5062.500.590.59
StanfordP122.292.2944.8344.83-0.24-0.24
UtahP122.282.2860.7160.710.490.49
San DiegoWCC1.711.7141.3841.38-0.29-0.29
MontanaBSky1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.661.6619.2319.23-1.02-1.02
BYUWCC1.641.6468.7568.750.610.61
PepperdineWCC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
WyomingMWC1.631.6355.1755.170.170.17
Texas A&MSEC1.631.6353.3353.330.110.11
SMUAmer1.571.5790.9190.911.281.28
TroySB1.571.5760.6160.610.330.33
New OrleansSlnd1.571.5762.9662.960.410.41
CornellIvy1.561.5625.9325.93-0.75-0.75
Nebraska OmahaSum1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
Missouri St.MVC1.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
PortlandWCC0.310.3129.0329.03-0.13-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2740.6240.62-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.270.2731.2531.25-0.10-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.260.2696.9796.970.250.25
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2261.2961.290.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2087.5087.500.150.15
NevadaMWC0.180.1882.3582.350.110.11
UC RiversideBW0.170.1722.2222.22-0.10-0.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
KentuckySEC0.160.1685.2985.290.120.12
Montana St.BSky0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
SeattleWAC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.1078.5778.570.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DenverSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0444.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00