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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:80.7
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:104
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-58.00.01%
23-613.80.13%
22-719.10.52%
21-825.41.41%
20-931.03.45%
19-1040.26.85%
18-1150.112.06%
17-1262.216.05%
16-1375.817.66%
15-1492.115.81%
14-15109.112.75%
13-16127.17.73%
12-17146.13.55%
11-18166.91.52%
10-19185.50.37%
9-20203.90.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Loyola MD (257.8)PatH79-75W100%0.0
11-13Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACH75-66W100%0.0
11-15Creighton (36.3)BEH88-92L0%0.0
11-18La Salle (107.5)A10N82-74W100%0.0
11-24Sacred Heart (306.6)NECH0-097%22.5
11-28Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-039%-3.4
12-1Illinois (84.8)B10H0-063%3.9
12-3Purdue (9.2)B10A0-011%-15.0
12-11Chicago St. (324.5)WACH0-0100%31.4
12-14Valparaiso (84.9)MVCH0-074%7.7
12-16DePaul (198.3)BEA0-067%5.2
12-22Oklahoma (39.9)B12A0-023%-8.9
12-30Brown (278.2)IvyH0-095%19.8
1-2Nebraska (165.0)B10H0-079%9.6
1-5Penn St. (87.4)B10A0-045%-1.6
1-10Minnesota (39.3)B10H0-044%-1.9
1-14Indiana (137.3)B10A0-054%1.1
1-17Ohio St. (85.4)B10H0-061%3.4
1-20Penn St. (87.4)B10H0-064%4.4
1-23Minnesota (39.3)B10A0-025%-7.9
1-29Michigan (60.4)B10A0-034%-5.1
2-1Wisconsin (36.5)B10A0-024%-8.3
2-6Michigan (60.4)B10H0-053%0.9
2-10Maryland (25.7)B10A0-025%-8.0
2-13Rutgers (181.4)B10A0-063%3.8
2-17Michigan St. (23.7)B10H0-032%-5.8
2-19Maryland (25.7)B10H0-043%-2.0
2-22Wisconsin (36.5)B10H0-042%-2.3
2-25Iowa (98.1)B10A0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1032.8126.1561.1152.567.291.34
MarylandB100.004.09100.0072.180.001.81
WisconsinB100.004.0666.6766.990.001.38
Penn St.B100.004.06100.0061.460.000.93
MichiganB100.004.06100.0062.080.000.98
MinnesotaB100.004.03100.0072.130.001.79
PurdueB100.002.54100.0085.210.001.79
IowaB100.002.48100.0058.250.000.41
NebraskaB100.002.4866.6740.740.00-0.46
Michigan St.B100.002.4550.0078.150.001.38
IllinoisB100.002.42100.0060.000.000.49
Ohio St.B100.002.42100.0060.620.000.51
IndianaB100.002.3933.3341.050.00-0.43
RutgersB100.002.37100.0047.200.00-0.13
DePaulBE0.001.8433.3331.220.00-0.69
Chicago St.WAC0.001.840.007.940.00-1.55
CreightonBE12.501.82100.0066.3012.500.59
Saint Peter'sMAAC14.061.7850.0050.440.000.02
La SalleA1014.581.75100.0053.0414.580.11
Sacred HeartNEC2.081.750.0038.53-2.08-0.40
ValparaisoMVC0.001.75100.0060.960.000.38
BrownIvy0.001.72100.0040.640.00-0.32
Georgia TechACC0.001.720.0057.390.000.25
Loyola MDPat12.501.720.0039.62-12.50-0.36
OklahomaB120.001.72100.0059.440.000.33
ProvidenceBE0.000.2475.0064.570.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.2450.0050.870.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.240.0044.950.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.2175.0052.360.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.21100.0067.950.000.08
YaleIvy2.080.1825.0054.93-1.040.02
St. John'sBE0.000.18100.0054.590.000.02
XavierBE0.000.18100.0078.990.000.10
Notre DameACC0.000.18100.0073.730.000.08
DrakeMVC0.000.1850.0035.740.00-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1525.0040.490.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1550.0042.730.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.150.0047.400.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0082.960.000.10
BucknellPat0.000.150.0061.460.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0022.610.00-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.000.130.0033.700.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1233.3350.350.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1225.0045.730.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.120.0030.910.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.120.0021.970.00-0.07
HarvardIvy0.000.1233.3354.200.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.120.0030.230.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0058.070.000.02
TexasB120.000.12100.0063.830.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1233.3329.980.00-0.05
BaylorB120.000.12100.0061.110.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1266.6755.210.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.1225.0038.080.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1250.0051.840.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0078.160.000.07
UCLAP120.000.12100.0064.910.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1250.0042.160.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0022.840.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0074.500.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0023.260.00-0.06
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0074.140.000.05
PennIvy1.560.1033.3349.35-0.52-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.090.0023.830.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0925.0032.490.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0950.0073.230.000.04
FairfieldMAAC2.080.0966.6754.900.690.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.09100.0048.790.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0950.0038.730.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.09100.0082.910.000.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.09100.0075.130.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0950.0069.320.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0975.0048.770.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0966.6763.220.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0028.770.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0036.690.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.090.0036.070.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0054.450.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0933.3331.840.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0036.640.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0933.3336.170.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3343.810.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.09100.0068.200.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0975.0045.290.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0062.240.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0975.0048.930.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0056.600.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0061.320.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0071.180.000.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.580.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0066.990.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.09100.0054.960.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.090.0039.010.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0054.680.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0933.3334.560.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0825.0035.000.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3334.680.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.070.0051.010.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0650.0052.870.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.150.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0633.3339.360.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.06100.0039.920.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
TowsonCAA2.080.0650.0066.710.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0633.3327.100.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3359.680.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0666.6749.940.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0051.410.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0044.830.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0022.920.00-0.02
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC2.080.030.0037.12-2.08-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3341.010.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0333.3349.220.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB1.560.0333.3345.78-0.52-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.00