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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:168.0
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:66
Current SOS:66
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19168.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Southern (184.0)SWACH79-49W100%0.0
11-15Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)SWACH81-68W100%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)NECH80-53W100%0.0
11-20Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH69-50W100%0.0
11-23Texas Christian (238.0)B12N31-55W100%0.0
11-24Illinois St. (117.0)MVCN72-69W100%0.0
11-27Maryland (73.0)ACCH57-77L0%0.0
12-1Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzH44-50L0%0.0
12-4Baylor (71.0)B12A70-74W100%0.0
12-8Butler (22.0)A10H65-74L0%0.0
12-17Texas St. (272.0)WACH74-68W100%0.0
12-21Stanford (77.0)P12H68-70L0%0.0
12-23Brown (241.0)IvyH63-42W100%0.0
1-3Michigan (20.0)B10H66-94L0%0.0
1-6Minnesota (34.0)B10A69-51L0%0.0
1-10Penn St. (186.0)B10A54-70W100%0.0
1-13Iowa (79.0)B10H50-70L0%0.0
1-17Illinois (40.0)B10A54-68W100%0.0
1-20Indiana (8.0)B10H59-67L0%0.0
1-23Minnesota (34.0)B10H55-48W100%0.0
1-26Nebraska (104.0)B10A64-49L0%0.0
1-30Michigan (20.0)B10A68-46L0%0.0
2-2Purdue (136.0)B10H75-60W100%0.0
2-9Iowa (79.0)B10A71-57L0%0.0
2-14Ohio St. (10.0)B10A69-59L0%0.0
2-17Illinois (40.0)B10H41-62L0%0.0
2-20Wisconsin (32.0)B10H41-69L0%0.0
2-24Purdue (136.0)B10A74-43L0%0.0
2-28Ohio St. (10.0)B10H53-63L0%0.0
3-7Penn St. (186.0)B10H59-66L0%0.0
3-10Michigan St. (9.0)B10A71-61L0%0.0
3-14Iowa (79.0)B10H59-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.2226.2234.3834.38-8.19-8.19
IowaB105.325.3260.0060.001.061.06
IllinoisB103.873.8764.5264.521.121.12
MichiganB103.853.8576.6776.672.052.05
Penn St.B103.843.8431.0331.03-1.46-1.46
PurdueB103.823.8246.6746.67-0.25-0.25
MinnesotaB103.823.8263.3363.331.021.02
Ohio St.B103.803.8077.4277.422.082.08
IndianaB102.432.4381.2581.251.521.52
WisconsinB102.432.4366.6766.670.810.81
NebraskaB102.402.4043.7543.75-0.30-0.30
Michigan St.B102.402.4074.1974.191.161.16
Delaware St.MEAC1.681.6843.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Texas SouthernSWAC1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
Texas ChristianB121.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.641.6418.5218.52-1.03-1.03
ButlerA101.631.6375.0075.000.820.82
BaylorB121.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
StanfordP121.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
MarylandACC1.591.5963.6463.640.430.43
BrownIvy1.561.5646.1546.15-0.12-0.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.WAC1.561.5634.3834.38-0.49-0.49
West VirginiaB120.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
TexasB120.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
Iowa St.B120.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Southern CaliforniaP120.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
DukeACC0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
BradleyMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
XavierA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
GramblingSWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
La SalleA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Oregon St.P120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.7593.750.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
DenverWAC0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
SeattleWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.090.0979.4179.410.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BryantNEC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Notre DameBE0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
PittsburghBE0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.077.147.14-0.06-0.06
MonmouthNEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
OregonP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UtahP120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
South DakotaSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Utah St.WAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0348.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
New Orleansind0.020.0218.1818.18-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01