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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:115.6
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:128
Current Record:16-8
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-873.50.15%
22-983.53.63%
21-1095.117.29%
20-11109.334.86%
19-12125.630.50%
18-13142.711.74%
17-14158.71.78%
16-15174.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UMass Lowell (274.0)AEH79-57W100%0.0
11-18Fairfield (179.2)MAACH79-72W100%0.0
11-20Columbia (134.4)IvyH83-80W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina (9.5)ACCN80-69L0%0.0
11-24Missouri (216.5)SECN67-62W100%0.0
11-28New Orleans (296.0)SlndH90-63W100%0.0
12-1Virginia Tech (138.1)ACCA79-81W100%0.0
12-5SIU Edwardsville (309.6)OVCH81-56W100%0.0
12-13Chicago St. (343.1)WACH77-35W100%0.0
12-15Mississippi Valley St. (324.6)SWACH78-48W100%0.0
12-19DePaul (165.2)BEA70-78W100%0.0
12-21Sacred Heart (283.7)NECH103-67W100%0.0
12-27Loyola MD (245.5)PatH74-59W100%0.0
12-30Nebraska (148.4)B10A72-81W100%0.0
1-2Maryland (8.2)B10H59-72L0%0.0
1-6Ohio St. (97.6)B10H56-65L0%0.0
1-9Minnesota (237.8)B10A52-77W100%0.0
1-12Wisconsin (61.5)B10H70-65W100%0.0
1-16Penn St. (144.1)B10H62-71L0%0.0
1-19Maryland (8.2)B10A62-56L0%0.0
1-23Indiana (31.6)B10A89-57L0%0.0
1-28Michigan St. (19.2)B10H45-76L0%0.0
1-31Iowa (7.4)B10A85-71L0%0.0
2-4Minnesota (237.8)B10H82-58W100%0.0
2-9Ohio St. (97.6)B10A0-040%-2.9
2-13Illinois (158.4)B10H0-078%8.3
2-16Purdue (14.4)B10A0-010%-13.8
2-24Michigan (41.1)B10A0-020%-9.2
2-27Rutgers (278.5)B10H0-095%18.4
3-3Penn St. (144.1)B10A0-061%3.1
3-6Nebraska (148.4)B10H0-064%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.3126.1061.1160.165.855.30
Penn St.B102.493.8145.4541.85-0.23-0.62
NebraskaB102.453.8054.5553.860.220.29
MarylandB104.533.8085.7180.473.242.32
MinnesotaB104.483.7828.5729.79-1.92-1.53
Ohio St.B102.493.7856.5252.330.320.18
IllinoisB100.452.3047.8345.25-0.02-0.22
RutgersB100.412.3022.7321.24-0.22-1.32
MichiganB100.412.2772.7367.560.190.80
PurdueB100.362.2582.6177.850.241.25
IndianaB102.442.2581.8276.611.561.20
Michigan St.B102.502.2581.8280.761.591.38
WisconsinB102.402.2263.6457.760.650.34
IowaB102.362.2280.9579.211.461.30
FairfieldMAAC2.281.7254.5554.800.210.17
Chicago St.WAC2.221.724.768.20-2.01-1.44
North CarolinaACC2.261.7285.7180.011.621.03
DePaulBE2.181.6938.1036.16-0.52-0.47
Sacred HeartNEC2.181.6733.3336.41-0.73-0.45
UMass LowellAE2.131.6735.0034.09-0.64-0.53
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.131.6618.1822.46-1.35-0.92
ColumbiaIvy2.131.6468.4266.610.780.54
Loyola MDPat2.131.6433.3335.59-0.71-0.47
MissouriSEC2.081.6438.1032.01-0.50-0.59
Virginia TechACC2.131.6454.5548.830.19-0.04
New OrleansSlnd2.081.6131.2540.01-0.78-0.32
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.081.6119.0523.68-1.29-0.85
ConnecticutAmer0.230.1972.7372.440.100.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.1941.6746.85-0.04-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1831.8226.61-0.07-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.1821.7424.60-0.13-0.09
BucknellPat0.190.1652.3856.770.010.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.1627.2732.84-0.13-0.06
Notre DameACC0.190.1668.1863.720.070.04
CreightonBE0.140.1660.8759.050.030.03
UMKCWAC0.190.1430.0034.84-0.07-0.04
YaleIvy0.140.1472.2273.760.060.06
MarquetteBE0.190.1465.2256.530.060.02
GeorgetownBE0.230.1356.5253.460.030.01
ClemsonACC0.140.1363.6462.340.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1352.1749.340.01-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.140.1345.4542.14-0.01-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.1380.9575.640.030.07
VirginiaACC0.090.1381.8276.020.060.07
VMISC0.130.1316.6718.97-0.09-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1316.6720.71-0.09-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.134.7614.01-0.12-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.1110.5325.37-0.04-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.150.1180.0082.460.090.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1150.0050.860.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1181.8281.010.090.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1113.6413.80-0.07-0.08
WagnerNEC0.190.1161.9063.360.050.03
LehighPat0.150.1130.0036.08-0.06-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.1170.5974.500.040.05
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1147.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1125.0029.52-0.07-0.04
ButlerBE0.140.1168.1866.490.050.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1161.9062.050.040.03
DuquesneA100.150.1166.6758.760.050.02
Iowa St.B120.140.1172.7368.840.060.04
SienaMAAC0.140.1166.6767.290.050.04
RiderMAAC0.180.1141.6743.51-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1166.6760.120.050.02
St. John'sBE0.050.1127.2724.41-0.02-0.05
XavierBE0.140.1190.9184.430.120.07
CanisiusMAAC0.090.1141.6743.85-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.140.1168.1863.250.050.03
George WashingtonA100.090.1177.2771.670.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1140.0044.95-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.1154.5555.990.010.01
TempleAmer0.180.1161.9058.420.040.02
VillanovaBE0.050.1186.3685.330.030.07
ProvidenceBE0.090.1178.2671.960.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1126.3233.83-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.090.1072.7369.920.040.04
PittsburghACC0.050.1080.0070.290.030.04
SyracuseACC0.140.1066.6762.710.050.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0916.6724.27-0.04-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0918.7533.17-0.07-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0973.6870.400.050.04
HartfordAE0.150.0926.0926.47-0.07-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.0920.8325.01-0.06-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.100.0852.1754.400.000.01
CornellIvy0.150.0844.4441.14-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0834.7837.55-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0822.7326.19-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0838.1042.99-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.140.0857.1457.880.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0826.0925.56-0.07-0.04
VermontAE0.050.0856.5258.380.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0840.9139.70-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.140.0823.8125.26-0.07-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0833.3333.55-0.02-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0863.6468.210.030.03
SeattleWAC0.140.0845.0042.81-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0826.0927.58-0.02-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.100.0833.3332.01-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0852.3853.820.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.0827.7829.23-0.06-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0845.0043.19-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0838.1037.53-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0866.6765.410.050.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0840.0042.53-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0879.1780.770.050.05
Seton HallBE0.050.0872.7368.630.020.03
Kansas St.B120.150.0859.0955.550.030.01
WoffordSC0.150.0838.1043.35-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0859.0959.470.030.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0839.1339.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0810.0014.87-0.04-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0885.7176.030.070.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0838.8943.22-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0868.1867.800.020.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0872.7369.690.040.03
LouisvilleACC0.140.0881.8277.490.090.04
RadfordBSth0.090.0852.3853.620.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.090.0842.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0833.3334.18-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0618.7526.09-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0610.0015.28-0.05-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.110.0661.9058.190.030.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0655.5650.840.010.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0673.9175.010.020.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0665.0067.510.010.02
MaineAE0.050.0636.3635.58-0.01-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0647.6252.92-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0652.6351.510.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0614.2916.31-0.03-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0645.4547.97-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0615.0015.65-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0635.0035.36-0.01-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0653.3355.180.000.01
LamarSlnd0.110.0633.3332.69-0.04-0.02
TulaneAmer0.110.0633.3332.41-0.04-0.02
NJITASun0.100.0652.1754.520.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0665.0060.810.030.01
AmericanPat0.050.0631.8232.71-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0654.5556.020.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0633.3331.83-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0642.8643.53-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0636.8441.45-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0665.2265.230.010.02
PennIvy0.000.0635.2934.69-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0634.7841.59-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0663.6457.330.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0545.0041.83-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.090.0573.9170.210.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0552.3854.240.000.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0566.6767.310.030.02
KansasB120.090.0580.9577.000.060.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0581.8277.440.060.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0522.7323.37-0.05-0.03
DrakeMVC0.090.0522.7324.85-0.05-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0552.1747.620.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0559.0959.680.020.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.0521.40-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0547.8350.56-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0540.9138.03-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0525.0025.48-0.02-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0550.0045.730.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0538.1041.92-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0576.1976.220.050.03
Texas TechB120.090.0561.9054.010.020.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.055.267.22-0.04-0.05
TexasB120.050.0568.1861.780.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0531.8233.75-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0054.850.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0573.9173.090.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0572.7366.970.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0514.2918.63-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0560.0056.080.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.5552.750.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0566.6761.680.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0575.0072.220.020.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0559.0958.550.010.01
MercerSC0.040.0571.4370.600.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0563.6456.050.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0526.0930.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0540.9143.37-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0547.6252.96-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0581.8281.010.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0581.8278.320.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0565.0068.750.010.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0559.0962.730.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.2944.50-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0056.540.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0563.1666.150.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0547.6257.27-0.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.060.038.709.77-0.05-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0357.8961.920.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0342.8639.84-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0368.7574.730.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0369.5770.030.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0333.3339.27-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0375.0073.480.020.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.130.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.050.030.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0322.7323.64-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.420.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0319.0522.35-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.070.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.0086.120.040.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0336.3642.19-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.7922.51-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0385.7181.220.030.02
ElonCAA0.000.0354.5553.020.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0330.0032.46-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0390.4885.550.000.02
StanfordP120.050.0352.6347.690.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.57-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0376.1979.640.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1452.310.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.43-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0378.2677.230.030.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0342.8637.19-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0366.6766.030.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0385.7184.560.000.02
DavidsonA100.050.0357.8955.400.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0341.6740.25-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0322.7324.28-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0363.6459.440.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0342.8641.75-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0363.6464.090.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0344.4446.94-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0361.9060.410.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0368.1869.350.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.69-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0390.4884.890.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0354.5561.950.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0331.5833.51-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.350.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0330.0033.57-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.3857.440.000.00
VCUA100.050.0377.2776.780.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0381.8278.720.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0029.91-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.030.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0373.9176.040.020.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0383.3380.130.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.93-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01