live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Jan 26, 2015.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:152.7
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:78
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1266.40.05%
18-1382.10.32%
17-1497.01.48%
16-15111.36.54%
15-16126.814.41%
14-17143.224.95%
13-18160.526.55%
12-19177.717.88%
11-20193.86.55%
10-21209.11.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Houston Baptist (282.6)SlndH65-58W100%0.0
11-17Brown (250.0)IvyA56-69W100%0.0
11-20North Florida (162.9)ASunH69-67W100%0.0
11-22Elon (247.9)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
11-25Miami OH (271.4)MACN46-55W100%0.0
11-26Northern Iowa (22.1)MVCN42-61L0%0.0
12-3Georgia Tech (123.1)ACCH58-66L0%0.0
12-6Butler (26.0)BEA65-56L0%0.0
12-14Mississippi Valley St. (345.9)SWACH101-49W100%0.0
12-17Central Michigan (68.2)MACH67-80L0%0.0
12-20Western Michigan (127.4)MACH67-61W100%0.0
12-22Illinois Chicago (315.1)HorzH63-46W100%0.0
12-27Northern Kentucky (229.7)ASunH76-55W100%0.0
12-30Rutgers (143.6)B10A47-51W100%0.0
1-4Wisconsin (6.7)B10H58-81L0%0.0
1-11Michigan St. (40.2)B10A84-77L0%0.0
1-14Illinois (70.5)B10H67-72L0%0.0
1-17Michigan (94.6)B10A56-54L0%0.0
1-22Ohio St. (24.7)B10H67-69L0%0.0
1-25Maryland (22.7)B10A68-67L0%0.0
1-31Purdue (90.3)B10H0-041%-2.6
2-3Nebraska (97.5)B10A0-032%-5.2
2-7Wisconsin (6.7)B10A0-03%-21.1
2-10Michigan St. (40.2)B10H0-028%-6.4
2-15Iowa (50.5)B10H0-037%-3.7
2-18Minnesota (80.6)B10A0-018%-10.0
2-21Penn St. (119.0)B10H0-059%2.6
2-25Indiana (40.2)B10H0-039%-3.2
2-28Illinois (70.5)B10A0-018%-10.2
3-3Michigan (94.6)B10H0-056%1.6
3-7Iowa (50.5)B10A0-017%-10.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.3526.1043.4837.93-3.44-6.30
IllinoisB102.763.8460.0058.420.550.65
IowaB100.373.8365.0062.590.110.97
WisconsinB102.693.8189.4786.382.132.77
Michigan St.B102.623.8163.1662.450.690.95
MichiganB102.743.8055.5648.790.30-0.09
NebraskaB100.312.3063.1650.810.080.04
Ohio St.B102.692.2775.0076.051.351.18
IndianaB100.422.2775.0068.680.210.85
PurdueB100.312.2560.0056.670.060.30
MinnesotaB100.302.2460.0055.750.060.26
RutgersB102.692.2250.0038.680.00-0.50
MarylandB102.742.2285.0076.641.921.18
Penn St.B100.312.2265.0052.200.090.10
North FloridaASun2.701.8155.5662.610.300.46
Northern KentuckyASun2.631.7541.1845.11-0.46-0.17
Miami OHMAC2.791.7335.2931.11-0.82-0.65
Western MichiganMAC2.571.7068.7558.910.960.30
Central MichiganMAC2.571.7076.9274.051.380.82
Northern IowaMVC2.571.6989.4783.982.031.15
ElonCAA2.641.6750.0045.680.00-0.14
BrownIvy2.561.6643.7539.30-0.32-0.36
ButlerBE2.501.6470.0069.501.000.64
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.501.6410.5315.72-1.97-1.12
Georgia TechACC2.501.6144.4440.93-0.28-0.29
Houston BaptistSlnd2.501.6141.6735.00-0.42-0.48
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.501.6116.6719.21-1.67-0.99
Eastern MichiganMAC0.290.2853.3353.310.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.2543.7538.83-0.02-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.360.2266.6765.570.120.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.2225.0025.64-0.13-0.11
MarquetteBE0.250.2152.6346.710.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.230.1757.8959.340.040.03
OhioMAC0.000.1741.1838.61-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.190.1761.1162.850.040.04
AkronMAC0.240.1766.6762.820.080.04
OaklandHorz0.200.1636.8442.19-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.180.1690.0084.390.150.11
Indiana St.MVC0.260.1647.3744.57-0.01-0.02
DukeACC0.190.1689.4783.760.150.11
North CarolinaACC0.120.1680.9576.270.070.08
GeorgetownBE0.180.1673.6868.210.090.06
Ball St.MAC0.160.1437.5037.43-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.1414.2917.07-0.16-0.09
Kent St.MAC0.070.1472.2264.220.030.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.1428.5736.64-0.09-0.04
SyracuseACC0.130.1366.6758.550.040.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1361.1158.490.040.02
Notre DameACC0.190.1390.4884.080.160.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1345.0057.03-0.010.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.1261.1166.600.010.04
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1221.0521.30-0.08-0.07
LipscombASun0.140.1241.1842.84-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.1211.7619.41-0.05-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.290.1235.0034.43-0.09-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1175.0070.890.000.05
BradleyMVC0.220.1130.0031.32-0.09-0.04
DetroitHorz0.130.1140.0042.45-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1158.8257.880.030.02
SMUAmer0.130.1178.9577.540.080.06
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1127.7828.20-0.09-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.130.1147.3748.02-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1163.1662.110.050.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1110.5319.74-0.10-0.07
Green BayHorz0.130.1178.9577.920.070.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.1126.3229.12-0.03-0.04
OregonP120.130.1168.4259.870.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.1125.0031.37-0.10-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.130.1142.1135.39-0.02-0.03
MissouriSEC0.130.1133.3330.04-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.060.1184.2177.800.040.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.1016.6722.01-0.04-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.060.1040.0038.76-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.120.1078.9569.690.070.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0958.3365.150.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0982.3584.870.040.07
LamarSlnd0.100.0937.5037.63-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0952.9447.070.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.0847.3750.47-0.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0866.6766.990.020.03
YaleIvy0.210.0864.7164.070.060.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0850.0044.160.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0855.5654.970.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.0815.0023.69-0.13-0.04
BucknellPat0.070.0850.0050.910.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0847.0648.23-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0850.0050.930.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0827.7829.49-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.130.0857.1458.270.020.01
New HampshireAE0.210.0850.0052.990.000.00
DrakeMVC0.140.0815.7917.73-0.09-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.0840.0037.57-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.200.0884.2179.140.140.05
Rhode IslandA100.140.0870.5968.840.060.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0820.0027.23-0.08-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.130.0842.1151.57-0.020.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0873.6869.260.060.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0845.0040.37-0.01-0.02
AmericanPat0.130.0855.0056.700.010.01
DePaulBE0.070.0852.3843.050.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.0821.0533.20-0.08-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.130.0875.0065.760.070.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.0840.0045.20-0.04-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0857.8948.680.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.140.0835.2937.89-0.04-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0842.8638.61-0.01-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0821.0526.08-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0873.6870.410.030.03
RiderMAAC0.130.0861.9062.380.030.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0831.5844.76-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0866.6760.500.020.02
UMBCAE0.000.0815.0020.03-0.00-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.130.0855.5654.010.010.01
VirginiaACC0.180.08100.0093.900.180.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.006.69-0.00-0.07
OklahomaB120.120.0863.1664.400.030.02
Seton HallBE0.180.0868.4260.870.070.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0735.2932.48-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0770.5975.570.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.0621.4339.82-0.11-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.060.003.50-0.10-0.06
IdahoBSky0.140.0637.5043.67-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.160.0636.8435.44-0.04-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0623.0835.96-0.05-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.0642.1145.63-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.150.0610.0012.94-0.12-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0670.5973.690.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0635.0043.91-0.04-0.01
LibertyBSth0.140.0611.7617.54-0.10-0.04
ArizonaP120.070.0690.0087.170.050.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0650.0053.430.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0628.5733.12-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0653.3356.270.000.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0621.0522.39-0.04-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0664.2965.370.000.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0666.6770.420.020.02
NJITind0.070.0652.3854.450.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0633.3334.03-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0643.7542.93-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.150.0645.0045.98-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.130.0640.0037.69-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0680.0079.110.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0658.8262.350.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.0514.2915.34-0.10-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0547.6250.23-0.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.130.0540.0041.44-0.03-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0516.6722.10-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0572.2265.290.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0557.8959.490.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0533.3334.70-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0525.0032.96-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0589.4787.870.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0561.9060.140.000.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0563.1654.100.020.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0564.2967.420.020.02
BaylorB120.060.0577.7871.500.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0566.6767.930.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0555.0045.730.01-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0525.0024.52-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0580.0071.460.040.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0571.4369.500.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0525.0037.78-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.060.0584.2176.020.040.03
MonmouthMAAC0.120.0552.3854.020.010.00
NavyPat0.060.0531.5832.87-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0572.2277.830.050.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0561.1160.430.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0557.8956.240.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0547.3741.07-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0570.0067.370.000.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0529.4131.63-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0547.3749.78-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0565.0063.140.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0340.0048.18-0.02-0.00
RiceCUSA0.100.0326.6730.25-0.04-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0340.0041.97-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0322.2240.58-0.05-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0338.8936.56-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0361.1159.790.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0335.2935.00-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0384.2175.010.050.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0366.6760.600.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0321.0530.50-0.04-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.64-0.07-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0352.9453.080.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.0350.0049.250.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0342.8642.72-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0341.1842.92-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0342.1151.85-0.010.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0310.0013.96-0.05-0.02
PacificWCC0.070.0338.8934.78-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.030.002.05-0.07-0.03
UCFAmer0.070.0344.4441.07-0.01-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0331.2527.84-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0344.4441.02-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0350.0042.950.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0373.6872.910.000.01
DenverSum0.060.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0323.5328.57-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0329.4131.72-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0363.1657.370.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0025.40-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0338.8940.89-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0352.6355.850.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0347.0649.59-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0365.0068.160.020.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0323.5327.83-0.04-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0331.5838.36-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.060.0384.2180.650.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0336.8441.50-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0370.5967.540.000.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0350.0052.210.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0344.4443.27-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0363.1663.090.020.01
BYUWCC0.000.0365.0067.610.000.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0326.3233.55-0.03-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0340.0046.29-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0329.4127.39-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0333.3334.34-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0051.880.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0372.2269.040.030.01
IUPUISum0.000.0338.1040.90-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0047.710.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0336.8433.26-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0347.3747.21-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0316.6723.18-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0344.4434.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0335.2933.20-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0366.6758.420.020.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0372.2262.200.030.01
SamfordSC0.000.0336.3636.13-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0316.6725.22-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0355.0060.970.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0350.0055.540.000.00
TCUB120.060.0373.6861.650.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0366.6754.640.020.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0363.1653.840.020.00
USCP120.000.0347.3740.00-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.060.0331.5837.64-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0327.7832.08-0.03-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0343.7548.08-0.01-0.00