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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:50.0
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:159



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1150.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH94-63W100%0.0
11-14Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH86-72W100%0.0
11-16Butler (15.0)BEA70-68L0%0.0
11-21Texas (156.0)B12N77-58W100%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN66-70L0%0.0
11-25Bryant (285.0)NECH86-66W100%0.0
11-28Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH65-58W100%0.0
12-3DePaul (239.0)BEH80-64W100%0.0
12-11New Orleans (154.0)SlndH83-49W100%0.0
12-14Chicago St. (318.0)WACH68-64W100%0.0
12-17Dayton (30.0)A10N67-64W100%0.0
12-20IUPUI (218.0)SumH87-65W100%0.0
12-22Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH72-63W100%0.0
12-27Penn St. (101.0)B10A77-87W100%0.0
12-30Michigan St. (51.0)B10A61-52L0%0.0
1-5Minnesota (20.0)B10H66-70L0%0.0
1-8Nebraska (107.0)B10A66-74W100%0.0
1-12Rutgers (177.0)B10A60-69W100%0.0
1-15Iowa (81.0)B10H89-54W100%0.0
1-22Ohio St. (90.0)B10A72-74W100%0.0
1-26Nebraska (107.0)B10H73-61W100%0.0
1-29Indiana (79.0)B10H68-55W100%0.0
2-1Purdue (19.0)B10A80-59L0%0.0
2-7Illinois (62.0)B10H61-68L0%0.0
2-12Wisconsin (35.0)B10A59-66W100%0.0
2-15Maryland (36.0)B10H64-74L0%0.0
2-18Rutgers (177.0)B10H69-65W100%0.0
2-21Illinois (62.0)B10A66-50L0%0.0
2-25Indiana (79.0)B10A63-62L0%0.0
3-1Michigan (25.0)B10H67-65W100%0.0
3-5Purdue (19.0)B10H65-69L0%0.0
3-9Rutgers (177.0)B10N83-61W100%0.0
3-10Maryland (36.0)B10A64-72W100%0.0
3-11Wisconsin (35.0)B10N76-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.2126.2165.1365.137.937.93
RutgersB105.015.0148.2848.28-0.17-0.17
IndianaB103.653.6554.8454.840.350.35
WisconsinB103.653.6575.0075.001.821.82
MarylandB103.563.5675.8675.861.841.84
IllinoisB103.533.5351.7251.720.120.12
PurdueB103.533.5376.6776.671.881.88
NebraskaB103.513.5139.2939.29-0.75-0.75
MichiganB102.342.3470.5970.590.960.96
IowaB102.252.2558.0658.060.360.36
Penn St.B102.232.2346.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Ohio St.B102.182.1854.8454.840.210.21
Michigan St.B102.162.1656.2556.250.270.27
MinnesotaB102.132.1371.8871.880.930.93
DePaulBE1.611.6129.0329.03-0.68-0.68
Notre DameACC1.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
ButlerBE1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Chicago St.WAC1.561.5610.7110.71-1.22-1.22
Houston BaptistSlnd1.541.5452.0052.000.060.06
IUPUISum1.541.5441.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.541.5422.5822.58-0.84-0.84
DaytonA101.521.5279.3179.310.890.89
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.521.5266.6766.670.510.51
BryantNEC1.521.5236.6736.67-0.40-0.40
TexasB121.521.5234.3834.38-0.47-0.47
New OrleansSlnd1.501.5062.9662.960.390.39
Wake ForestACC1.491.4961.2961.290.340.34
MarquetteBE0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
XavierBE0.190.1961.7661.760.040.04
CreightonBE0.190.1972.7372.730.080.08
Seton HallBE0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
St. John'sBE0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1619.2319.23-0.10-0.10
SeattleWAC0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
KansasB120.140.1487.5087.500.100.10
Virginia TechACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
VirginiaACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
LamarSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
FordhamA100.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
TCUB120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0417.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01