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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:123.0
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:49
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:211
Expected OOC SOS:227



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19123.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH72-55W100%0.0
11-14Stanford (41.0)P12A71-58L0%0.0
11-17Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH64-68L0%0.0
11-20UIC (315.0)HorzA58-93W100%0.0
11-22IUPUI (322.0)SumH63-61W100%0.0
11-25Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH72-59W100%0.0
11-28Missouri (49.0)SECN67-78L0%0.0
11-29UCLA (14.0)P12N79-95L0%0.0
12-4North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA69-48L0%0.0
12-7Western Michigan (66.0)MACH51-35W100%0.0
12-16Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH86-64W100%0.0
12-22Brown (229.0)IvyH58-52W100%0.0
12-27DePaul (154.0)BEH56-57L0%0.0
1-2Wisconsin (6.0)B10H49-76L0%0.0
1-5Michigan (11.0)B10A74-51L0%0.0
1-9Iowa (56.0)B10A93-67L0%0.0
1-12Illinois (70.0)B10H49-43W100%0.0
1-15Michigan St. (18.0)B10H40-54L0%0.0
1-18Indiana (102.0)B10A47-54W100%0.0
1-21Purdue (145.0)B10H63-60W100%0.0
1-25Iowa (56.0)B10H50-76L0%0.0
1-29Wisconsin (6.0)B10A56-65W100%0.0
2-1Minnesota (50.0)B10A54-55W100%0.0
2-8Nebraska (48.0)B10H49-53L0%0.0
2-13Michigan St. (18.0)B10A85-70L0%0.0
2-16Minnesota (50.0)B10H48-54L0%0.0
2-19Ohio St. (24.0)B10A76-60L0%0.0
2-22Indiana (102.0)B10H56-61L0%0.0
3-1Nebraska (48.0)B10A54-47L0%0.0
3-6Penn St. (114.0)B10H32-59L0%0.0
3-9Purdue (145.0)B10A65-74W100%0.0
3-13Iowa (56.0)B10N62-67W100%0.0
3-14Michigan St. (18.0)B10N67-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.3126.3139.2639.26-5.65-5.65
Michigan St.B105.235.2374.1974.192.532.53
IowaB105.175.1760.7160.711.111.11
WisconsinB103.833.8380.6580.652.352.35
MinnesotaB103.763.7660.0060.000.750.75
PurdueB103.713.7150.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB103.713.7153.3353.330.250.25
NebraskaB103.663.6658.6258.620.630.63
MichiganB102.472.4775.0075.001.241.24
Ohio St.B102.412.4172.7372.731.101.10
IllinoisB102.412.4159.3859.380.450.45
Penn St.B102.312.3145.1645.16-0.22-0.22
MissouriSEC1.661.6665.6265.620.520.52
UCLAP121.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
StanfordP121.601.6062.5062.500.400.40
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
UICHorz1.571.5714.2914.29-1.12-1.12
Gardner WebbBSth1.561.5651.7251.720.050.05
IUPUISum1.561.5610.7110.71-1.23-1.23
DePaulBE1.541.5434.3834.38-0.48-0.48
Illinois St.MVC1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC1.541.5460.6160.610.330.33
Western MichiganMAC1.541.5473.3373.330.720.72
BrownIvy1.521.5253.8553.850.120.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.521.5221.4321.43-0.87-0.87
OaklandHorz0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.160.1630.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
IPFWSum0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
PennIvy0.150.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
WashingtonP120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
SyracuseACC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
OregonP120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1078.5778.570.060.06
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ButlerBE0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00