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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:125.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:50
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH65-58W100%0.0
11-17Brown (248.0)IvyA56-69W100%0.0
11-20North Florida (162.0)ASunH69-67W100%0.0
11-22Elon (259.0)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
11-25Miami OH (229.0)MACN46-55W100%0.0
11-26Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCN42-61L0%0.0
12-3Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH58-66L0%0.0
12-6Butler (31.0)BEA65-56L0%0.0
12-14Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH101-49W100%0.0
12-17Central Michigan (70.0)MACH67-80L0%0.0
12-20Western Michigan (119.0)MACH67-61W100%0.0
12-22Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH63-46W100%0.0
12-27Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH76-55W100%0.0
12-30Rutgers (178.0)B10A47-51W100%0.0
1-4Wisconsin (4.0)B10H58-81L0%0.0
1-11Michigan St. (23.0)B10A84-77L0%0.0
1-14Illinois (73.0)B10H67-72L0%0.0
1-17Michigan (81.0)B10A56-54L0%0.0
1-22Ohio St. (41.0)B10H67-69L0%0.0
1-25Maryland (13.0)B10A68-67L0%0.0
1-31Purdue (55.0)B10H60-68L0%0.0
2-3Nebraska (158.0)B10A76-60L0%0.0
2-7Wisconsin (4.0)B10A65-50L0%0.0
2-10Michigan St. (23.0)B10H44-68L0%0.0
2-15Iowa (43.0)B10H66-61W100%0.0
2-18Minnesota (98.0)B10A66-72W100%0.0
2-21Penn St. (108.0)B10H60-39W100%0.0
2-25Indiana (61.0)B10H72-65W100%0.0
2-28Illinois (73.0)B10A86-60L0%0.0
3-3Michigan (81.0)B10H82-78W100%0.0
3-7Iowa (43.0)B10A69-52L0%0.0
3-12Indiana (61.0)B10N71-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.0826.0841.5541.55-4.41-4.41
WisconsinB103.803.8090.6290.623.093.09
Michigan St.B103.803.8065.6265.621.191.19
MichiganB103.773.7748.2848.28-0.13-0.13
IllinoisB103.753.7556.6756.670.500.50
IndianaB103.753.7561.2961.290.850.85
IowaB103.723.7266.6766.671.241.24
Ohio St.B102.282.2868.7568.750.860.86
PurdueB102.262.2662.5062.500.560.56
MarylandB102.252.2581.2581.251.411.41
NebraskaB102.242.2440.0040.00-0.45-0.45
Penn St.B102.232.2354.5554.550.200.20
MinnesotaB102.212.2154.8454.840.210.21
RutgersB102.192.1932.2632.26-0.78-0.78
North FloridaASun1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
Northern KentuckyASun1.681.6840.7440.74-0.31-0.31
Miami OHMAC1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Western MichiganMAC1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Central MichiganMAC1.641.6470.3770.370.670.67
Northern IowaMVC1.641.6490.6290.621.331.33
ElonCAA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
BrownIvy1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
ButlerBE1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6119.3519.35-0.99-0.99
Georgia TechACC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Houston BaptistSlnd1.561.5634.7834.78-0.48-0.48
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.561.5625.8125.81-0.76-0.76
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.2344.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2026.6726.67-0.10-0.10
MarquetteBE0.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
OhioMAC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
AkronMAC0.180.1858.8258.820.030.03
OaklandHorz0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
LipscombASun0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.150.1568.5768.570.050.05
DukeACC0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Green BayHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
LamarSlnd0.110.1142.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0986.6786.670.070.07
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01