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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:66.2
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.14%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:55


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-921.70.11%
20-1029.21.07%
19-1137.55.77%
18-1247.816.39%
17-1359.327.41%
16-1472.327.36%
15-1586.415.77%
14-1699.85.45%
13-17114.50.66%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Pan American (309.3)GWCH60-36W100%0.0
11-17Louisiana St. (85.2)SECN88-82W100%0.0
11-18Tulsa (105.7)CUSAN69-65W100%0.0
11-20Seton Hall (53.1)BEN73-80W100%0.0
11-25Stony Brook (154.7)AEH63-58W100%0.0
11-29Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA60-76W100%0.0
12-2Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH92-67W100%0.0
12-4Baylor (6.8)B12H41-69L0%0.0
12-15Texas Southern (244.5)SWACH81-51W100%0.0
12-17Central Connecticut (236.3)NECH70-64W100%0.0
12-18Eastern Illinois (293.4)OVCH87-72W100%0.0
12-22Creighton (21.0)MVCA87-79L0%0.0
12-28Ohio St. (3.4)B10A87-54L0%0.0
1-1Penn St. (163.2)B10H68-56W100%0.0
1-4Illinois (39.4)B10H56-57L0%0.0
1-11Michigan (25.3)B10A66-64L0%0.0
1-14Michigan St. (8.2)B10H81-74W100%0.0
1-18Wisconsin (21.8)B10A77-57L0%0.0
1-22Minnesota (68.5)B10A75-52L0%0.0
1-28Purdue (65.0)B10H56-58L0%0.0
2-2Nebraska (117.6)B10H84-74W100%0.0
2-5Illinois (39.4)B10A0-029%-6.2
2-9Iowa (139.5)B10H0-070%5.8
2-12Purdue (65.0)B10A0-027%-6.8
2-15Indiana (20.6)B10A0-012%-13.0
2-18Minnesota (68.5)B10H0-055%1.4
2-21Michigan (25.3)B10H0-047%-0.9
2-25Penn St. (163.2)B10A0-057%2.0
2-29Ohio St. (3.4)B10H0-011%-13.1
3-3Iowa (139.5)B10A0-047%-0.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.1226.2157.6552.134.001.12
IllinoisB102.804.0471.4362.961.201.05
IowaB100.584.0454.1749.990.05-0.00
PurdueB102.704.0463.6458.780.740.71
MichiganB102.694.0471.4366.101.151.30
Ohio St.B102.764.0286.3684.852.012.80
Penn St.B102.754.0143.4839.86-0.36-0.81
MinnesotaB102.703.9968.1860.540.980.84
IndianaB100.632.5175.0075.360.321.27
Michigan St.B102.812.4880.0075.431.681.26
WisconsinB102.872.4873.9173.111.371.15
NebraskaB102.792.4855.0048.350.28-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC2.551.7833.3343.58-0.85-0.23
CreightonMVC2.491.7886.9684.901.841.24
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.481.7552.3860.160.120.36
Stony BrookAE2.441.7270.0070.660.980.71
Texas Pan AmericanGWC2.431.7220.0025.56-1.46-0.84
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.441.7035.0035.79-0.73-0.48
BaylorB122.441.6990.4883.291.971.13
Central ConnecticutNEC2.441.6947.6247.39-0.12-0.09
Georgia TechACC2.441.6940.9143.57-0.44-0.22
Louisiana St.SEC2.431.6961.9059.250.580.31
TulsaCUSA2.431.6963.6461.090.660.38
Seton HallBE2.381.6768.1865.930.870.53
Jackson St.SWAC0.270.2219.0525.52-0.16-0.11
Chicago St.GWC0.160.204.769.95-0.15-0.16
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1917.6527.10-0.14-0.09
Iowa St.B120.110.1973.9168.430.050.07
DePaulBE0.210.1750.0042.830.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1726.0928.60-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.270.1769.5765.150.110.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1717.3924.41-0.11-0.09
DukeACC0.210.1686.3683.090.160.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.1662.5062.490.060.04
HartfordAE0.160.1517.3920.97-0.10-0.08
Boston CollegeACC0.160.1430.4326.44-0.06-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1456.5254.220.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1416.6723.02-0.11-0.08
GramblingSWAC0.160.1415.0015.73-0.11-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.1435.0040.78-0.06-0.03
CornellIvy0.160.1436.8441.45-0.04-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.145.267.30-0.10-0.12
BradleyMVC0.200.1424.0024.86-0.11-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.160.1468.1869.100.060.05
MississippiSEC0.160.1463.6456.710.040.02
MaineAE0.170.1250.0049.730.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.160.1225.0028.52-0.08-0.05
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.110.1213.6416.35-0.08-0.08
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.220.1276.1975.940.110.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1226.3229.71-0.05-0.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.170.1254.5556.090.020.01
RutgersBE0.110.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.160.1161.9058.590.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1147.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1130.0037.30-0.06-0.03
VirginiaACC0.160.1181.8276.800.100.06
SouthernSWAC0.110.1145.0046.13-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.210.1186.9683.160.160.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1140.9138.38-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.1150.0048.360.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.100.1152.1750.090.000.00
FloridaSEC0.160.1182.6177.630.100.06
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1162.5062.060.040.03
KansasB120.110.1178.2678.390.060.06
MarylandACC0.110.1159.0950.820.020.00
MissouriB120.110.1191.3087.180.090.08
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1162.5061.500.020.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1140.9139.56-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1195.8392.570.100.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1142.1149.81-0.02-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.1135.0035.31-0.02-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.0944.0045.89-0.02-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.0933.3338.38-0.04-0.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.170.0957.1449.540.02-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0952.6348.410.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0827.7829.87-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.110.0861.9067.230.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.110.0819.0521.29-0.07-0.05
BrownIvy0.050.0827.2723.80-0.02-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.100.0870.8371.050.040.04
AuburnSEC0.110.0856.5248.810.01-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.110.0847.6244.63-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0869.5771.510.020.04
MercerASun0.160.0870.8371.640.060.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0878.2672.340.060.04
Missouri St.MVC0.150.0854.1757.200.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.160.0845.4540.70-0.01-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0882.6180.420.070.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0828.5734.20-0.05-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0873.9175.490.050.04
Southern CaliforniaP120.110.0825.0025.13-0.05-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0845.4544.02-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.160.0879.1775.980.090.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0870.8364.420.020.02
Notre DameBE0.110.0865.2262.650.030.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.160.0856.5257.720.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0842.8641.13-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0856.0055.650.010.01
DaytonA100.100.0860.8760.960.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.0881.8281.490.070.05
Miami FLACC0.100.0865.0060.020.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0833.3337.25-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.100.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0821.7424.58-0.06-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0856.5255.200.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0852.3857.860.000.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0850.0050.800.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0882.6181.440.070.05
AlbanyAE0.110.0660.0060.420.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.060.004.02-0.11-0.06
Boston UniversityAE0.110.0648.0051.88-0.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0647.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0650.0051.730.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0645.4546.99-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.110.06100.0094.550.110.06
New HampshireAE0.060.0635.0038.58-0.02-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.060.0633.3341.31-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0647.6247.18-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.064.359.66-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0654.5557.690.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0660.0062.490.010.02
ArmyPat0.110.0640.9141.72-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.068.7012.13-0.09-0.05
BryantNEC0.110.068.3310.86-0.09-0.05
QuinnipiacNEC0.000.0656.5257.150.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0668.0070.030.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0621.7422.76-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0682.6184.570.040.04
St. John'sBE0.060.0643.4840.28-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0656.5253.100.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.0656.5255.950.010.01
YaleIvy0.110.0672.2263.190.050.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.100.0668.1863.990.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.0672.7371.710.050.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0672.7368.280.020.02
OaklandSum0.050.0648.0050.21-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0659.0954.700.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0647.6246.46-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0685.7178.050.070.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.06-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0638.1037.86-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.050.0660.8761.370.010.01
Texas A&MB120.110.0652.3846.150.01-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0643.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0631.8225.98-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.064.005.26-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.050.0640.9139.82-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0654.5556.790.000.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0680.0078.060.060.03
West VirginiaBE0.110.0665.2265.170.030.02
Western KentuckySB0.110.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.0575.0076.000.050.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.110.0534.7835.20-0.03-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0535.0039.29-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.9175.000.020.03
DuquesneA100.050.0559.0956.350.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0554.5554.300.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0531.8232.75-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0579.1780.100.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0034.15-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0561.9063.520.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0545.8346.68-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.058.7013.10-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.050.0550.0048.490.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0560.0059.060.010.01
TempleA100.050.0577.2775.060.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0565.2263.610.020.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0545.0044.15-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0534.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0540.9142.96-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0541.6740.61-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.0565.2263.740.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0550.0051.530.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0355.0054.800.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0330.0030.06-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0334.7838.42-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0360.8759.760.000.01
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.030.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0369.5764.530.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0326.3228.83-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0347.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
CincinnatiBE0.000.0369.5765.470.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0372.2271.970.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.02-0.01
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0344.4441.71-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.9577.380.000.02
IUPUISum0.050.0334.7835.50-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0373.9174.910.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.03-0.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
PittsburghBE0.000.0360.8758.160.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0356.5250.270.010.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0345.4545.55-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0352.3852.870.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.58-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0390.9187.740.040.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0369.5765.870.000.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0327.2735.02-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0334.7838.77-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0318.1822.22-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0338.8943.93-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0331.8231.31-0.00-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00