live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 16, 2017.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:83.8
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:114
Current Record:8-4
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:135
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-618.50.04%
23-724.10.15%
22-830.01.02%
21-937.93.39%
20-1046.97.31%
19-1156.813.25%
18-1268.917.65%
17-1382.919.69%
16-1498.216.96%
15-15115.311.64%
14-16132.85.74%
13-17152.02.23%
12-18171.30.74%
11-19186.80.15%
10-20189.50.02%
9-21223.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Loyola MD (303.9)PatH79-75W100%0.0
11-13Saint Peter's (223.4)MAACH75-66W100%0.0
11-15Creighton (28.5)BEH88-92L0%0.0
11-18La Salle (132.2)A10N82-74W100%0.0
11-19Texas Tech (34.8)B12N49-85L0%0.0
11-24Sacred Heart (300.2)NECH81-50W100%0.0
11-28Georgia Tech (186.3)ACCA52-51L0%0.0
12-1Illinois (127.9)B10H72-68W100%0.0
12-3Purdue (11.1)B10A74-69L0%0.0
12-11Chicago St. (336.1)WACH96-31W100%0.0
12-14Valparaiso (88.4)MVCH84-50W100%0.0
12-16DePaul (174.2)BEA60-62W100%0.0
12-22Oklahoma (26.2)B12A0-027%-7.2
12-30Brown (264.2)IvyH0-095%19.6
1-2Nebraska (136.0)B10H0-076%8.2
1-5Penn St. (73.0)B10A0-037%-3.8
1-10Minnesota (72.7)B10H0-058%2.5
1-14Indiana (129.9)B10A0-054%1.2
1-17Ohio St. (54.8)B10H0-057%2.1
1-20Penn St. (73.0)B10H0-059%2.5
1-23Minnesota (72.7)B10A0-037%-3.9
1-29Michigan (48.0)B10A0-030%-6.2
2-1Wisconsin (113.6)B10A0-048%-0.7
2-6Michigan (48.0)B10H0-051%0.2
2-10Maryland (45.2)B10A0-030%-6.2
2-13Rutgers (135.7)B10A0-054%1.3
2-17Michigan St. (12.3)B10H0-028%-6.7
2-19Maryland (45.2)B10H0-051%0.2
2-22Wisconsin (113.6)B10H0-068%5.6
2-25Iowa (154.1)B10A0-054%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1027.5026.1062.5055.146.872.68
MarylandB100.333.9375.0066.800.171.32
WisconsinB100.003.9141.6746.520.00-0.27
Penn St.B100.003.9172.7365.090.001.18
MichiganB100.003.9075.0067.440.001.36
MinnesotaB100.003.8875.0064.590.001.13
PurdueB104.572.4383.3382.163.051.57
IowaB100.172.3850.0044.260.00-0.27
NebraskaB100.212.3758.3351.250.030.06
Michigan St.B100.192.3590.9186.550.151.72
Ohio St.B100.002.3275.0065.600.000.72
IllinoisB104.362.3263.6450.851.190.04
IndianaB100.002.2954.5547.160.00-0.13
RutgersB100.002.2675.0055.370.000.24
DePaulBE4.341.7860.0038.170.87-0.42
Chicago St.WAC4.331.770.003.23-4.33-1.66
CreightonBE4.171.7577.7870.422.310.71
Texas TechB124.171.7288.8969.123.240.66
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.561.7250.0052.600.000.09
OklahomaB120.001.7288.8964.730.000.51
La SalleA104.401.7050.0050.780.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC4.401.7044.4438.94-0.49-0.37
ValparaisoMVC4.331.6975.0063.692.160.46
BrownIvy0.001.6744.4445.090.00-0.16
Georgia TechACC4.171.6742.8633.46-0.60-0.55
Loyola MDPat4.171.670.0026.62-4.17-0.78
ProvidenceBE0.000.2270.0052.870.000.01
Seton HallBE0.440.2281.8270.990.280.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.2212.5034.17-0.17-0.07
MarquetteBE0.330.2270.0053.500.130.02
ButlerBE0.160.2272.7357.600.070.03
BaylorB120.210.1977.7863.110.120.05
YaleIvy0.210.1741.6754.21-0.030.01
DrakeMVC0.170.1740.0035.01-0.03-0.05
St. John'sBE0.210.1777.7858.330.120.03
Notre DameACC0.360.1670.0064.900.150.05
TexasB120.000.1670.0058.580.000.03
XavierBE0.000.1690.9179.700.000.10
UCLAP120.470.1670.0062.040.190.04
UMass LowellAE0.470.1450.0041.830.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1450.0051.110.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.1430.0047.080.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1436.3661.900.000.03
VillanovaBE0.190.14100.0088.960.190.11
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.140.0017.20-0.19-0.09
Iowa St.B120.000.1480.0047.490.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.1480.0075.840.000.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.1490.0077.260.000.07
Boston CollegeACC0.610.1472.7351.990.280.01
DartmouthIvy0.470.1228.5725.28-0.20-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.129.0932.120.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1233.3348.410.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.1218.1824.180.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1230.0039.740.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1211.1130.200.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.440.1211.1125.97-0.34-0.06
BryantNEC0.000.129.0923.080.00-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.400.1133.3336.92-0.13-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.1133.3329.45-0.20-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.260.1160.0054.090.050.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1145.4549.100.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.1154.5559.250.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1188.8949.620.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1181.8256.900.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1180.0054.440.000.01
TCUB120.000.11100.0070.080.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1190.0075.700.000.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0021.230.00-0.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1154.5554.760.000.01
Miami FLACC0.190.11100.0076.660.190.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1127.2731.870.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.1190.0080.890.000.07
PennIvy0.190.0963.6466.470.050.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0930.0029.140.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.170.0980.0061.200.100.02
Northern IowaMVC0.170.0966.6767.910.060.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0966.6774.010.000.04
FairfieldMAAC0.420.0944.4449.06-0.05-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.0922.2238.06-0.14-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0970.0069.000.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3339.560.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.0977.7875.840.100.04
Florida St.ACC0.260.0890.0071.940.210.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.260.0846.1543.17-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0825.0030.880.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.170.0850.0048.880.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.0818.1819.21-0.13-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.630.0850.0040.000.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0827.2737.640.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0854.5561.400.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0880.0072.390.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0890.0066.090.000.03
VCUA100.000.0854.5564.640.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0870.0056.320.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0880.0074.070.000.04
FordhamA100.000.0840.0033.100.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.089.0923.150.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.170.0860.0044.870.03-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0891.6781.410.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.160.0880.0064.880.100.02
North TexasCUSA0.260.0850.0047.930.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0890.0065.600.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0842.8638.080.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0845.4538.480.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0845.4547.200.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0872.7352.190.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0854.5533.300.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.190.0870.0060.250.080.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.0860.0068.510.030.03
CornellIvy0.000.0650.0039.410.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0640.0049.120.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0645.4545.620.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0633.3333.010.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0655.5659.360.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0637.5046.090.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0640.0050.750.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0644.4452.820.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0672.7361.410.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0640.0045.040.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0636.3645.800.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0680.0055.080.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0640.0044.420.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0655.5662.160.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0681.8266.600.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0672.7366.890.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.2749.500.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0650.0055.280.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0620.0033.400.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0044.670.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0618.1830.220.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0655.5660.900.000.01
DrexelCAA0.190.0640.0042.26-0.04-0.01
TowsonCAA0.450.0688.8978.530.350.03
Ball St.MAC0.230.0655.5662.980.030.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.230.0612.5037.54-0.17-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.0650.0039.160.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.170.0654.5563.790.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0061.590.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0622.2230.490.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0611.1132.740.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.210.0640.0029.47-0.04-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0611.1135.210.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0620.0024.510.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6746.240.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0620.0037.240.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0055.840.000.01
OregonP120.190.0675.0068.890.090.02
PortlandWCC0.190.0612.5023.98-0.14-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8635.050.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0637.5058.830.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0671.4363.120.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.060.0014.85-0.19-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0525.0032.900.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.050.0011.98-0.19-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.210.0581.8286.480.130.04
MaineAE0.420.0511.1117.41-0.32-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0555.5635.960.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.210.0522.2231.85-0.12-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.170.0520.0041.93-0.10-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0544.4448.830.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0537.5048.680.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.260.0530.0047.62-0.10-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0525.0033.070.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0533.3340.590.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0560.0062.420.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0542.8657.930.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0544.4446.920.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0540.0040.890.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.210.0510.0026.95-0.17-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0518.1828.330.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0550.0046.890.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.420.0587.5070.170.320.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0590.0077.650.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0581.8268.230.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0522.2226.620.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.470.0542.8644.82-0.07-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0370.0053.200.000.00
ElonCAA0.230.0350.0042.990.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.230.0344.4444.41-0.03-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0340.0044.630.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.170.0344.4431.21-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.230.0320.0030.68-0.14-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0325.0030.140.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.230.0337.5043.17-0.06-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.230.0314.2929.96-0.17-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.230.0345.4547.25-0.02-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0057.470.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.030.0030.29-0.21-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0330.0031.440.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.170.0325.0040.97-0.09-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0355.5631.670.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4359.830.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0350.0046.200.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0032.840.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.0333.3339.41-0.06-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.170.030.009.23-0.17-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.170.0370.0052.780.070.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0380.0070.250.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0316.6726.590.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.0327.2752.75-0.080.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0022.570.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0345.4530.290.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.0320.0037.69-0.10-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0355.5652.920.000.00
UNLVMWC0.170.0381.8276.330.110.01
USCP120.000.0362.5068.620.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0370.0071.590.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0380.0081.220.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0357.1447.360.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0021.600.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0330.0045.020.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.160.0372.7375.090.070.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.260.0330.0047.79-0.10-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0372.7350.970.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0370.0048.240.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0063.010.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0350.0052.340.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0366.6747.890.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0312.5035.370.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.200.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0377.7847.820.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.160.0312.5029.23-0.12-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.0311.1130.74-0.16-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0355.5665.420.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0377.7871.420.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0065.860.000.01
NevadaMWC0.210.0380.0081.600.120.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0355.5658.700.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0342.8653.850.000.00
RiceCUSA0.210.0311.1122.24-0.16-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0320.0024.400.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0380.0055.950.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0354.5565.540.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0345.4538.100.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0340.0039.470.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0342.8643.640.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0048.100.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0325.0022.180.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0355.5666.290.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0370.0056.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0362.5048.260.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5658.390.000.00