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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:49.5
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:9
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-32.00.02%
27-48.10.08%
26-512.00.47%
25-616.31.49%
24-720.64.49%
23-826.49.70%
22-932.915.61%
21-1041.819.56%
20-1151.418.66%
19-1263.814.04%
18-1377.59.18%
17-1491.84.27%
16-15108.21.75%
15-16126.90.57%
14-17144.60.09%
13-18170.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi Valley St. (316.6)SWACH94-63W100%0.0
11-14Eastern Washington (201.0)BSkyH86-72W100%0.0
11-16Butler (14.3)BEA70-68L0%0.0
11-21Texas (118.2)B12N77-58W100%0.0
11-22Notre Dame (24.1)ACCN66-70L0%0.0
11-25Bryant (225.3)NECH86-66W100%0.0
11-28Wake Forest (52.1)ACCH65-58W100%0.0
12-3DePaul (189.5)BEH80-64W100%0.0
12-11New Orleans (252.7)SlndH0-098%23.6
12-14Chicago St. (275.4)WACH0-099%26.9
12-17Dayton (38.8)A10N0-052%0.6
12-20IUPUI (160.7)SumH0-089%14.9
12-22Houston Baptist (225.5)SlndH0-097%22.1
12-27Penn St. (120.6)B10A0-065%4.8
12-30Michigan St. (48.9)B10A0-042%-2.5
1-5Minnesota (40.0)B10H0-066%5.0
1-8Nebraska (87.2)B10A0-059%2.7
1-12Rutgers (138.5)B10A0-068%5.8
1-15Iowa (190.1)B10H0-084%12.1
1-22Ohio St. (55.9)B10A0-044%-1.8
1-26Nebraska (87.2)B10H0-077%9.0
1-29Indiana (20.8)B10H0-045%-1.5
2-1Purdue (23.6)B10A0-021%-9.6
2-7Illinois (90.8)B10H0-076%8.6
2-12Wisconsin (22.3)B10A0-022%-9.1
2-15Maryland (87.4)B10H0-078%9.1
2-18Rutgers (138.5)B10H0-084%12.0
2-21Illinois (90.8)B10A0-058%2.4
2-25Indiana (20.8)B10A0-026%-7.8
3-1Michigan (40.6)B10H0-058%2.5
3-4Purdue (23.6)B10H0-039%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1028.0626.1171.4363.2712.036.93
IndianaB100.353.8787.5075.200.261.95
PurdueB100.003.8177.7878.190.002.15
IllinoisB100.003.7866.6752.440.000.18
RutgersB100.453.7887.5052.140.330.16
NebraskaB100.003.7857.1445.780.00-0.32
MichiganB100.392.3377.7866.640.220.78
IowaB100.352.3344.4439.17-0.04-0.51
Penn St.B100.002.3066.6746.560.00-0.16
WisconsinB100.002.2877.7876.520.001.21
Michigan St.B100.352.2760.0058.800.070.40
MarylandB100.002.2587.5060.300.000.46
Ohio St.B100.002.2277.7862.220.000.54
MinnesotaB100.002.1988.8968.020.000.79
Notre DameACC6.601.77100.0076.216.600.93
DePaulBE6.251.7583.3338.984.17-0.39
ButlerBE6.251.72100.0073.966.250.82
Houston BaptistSlnd0.001.700.0040.25-0.00-0.33
IUPUISum0.001.6933.3353.09-0.000.10
Chicago St.WAC0.351.6920.0022.88-0.21-0.92
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.251.690.0026.00-6.25-0.81
DaytonA100.001.6771.4374.180.000.81
BryantNEC7.041.6725.0048.12-3.52-0.06
TexasB126.701.6757.1440.020.96-0.33
Eastern WashingtonBSky6.991.6783.3357.674.660.26
New OrleansSlnd0.001.6540.0043.29-0.00-0.22
Wake ForestACC6.251.6487.5057.084.690.23
MarquetteBE0.000.2277.7864.250.000.06
VillanovaBE0.350.21100.0084.740.350.15
CreightonBE0.000.19100.0076.540.000.10
Seton HallBE0.000.1975.0054.480.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1944.4436.20-0.00-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1887.5075.690.000.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.180.0017.92-0.00-0.11
Central ArkansasSlnd0.390.1712.5030.51-0.29-0.07
SeattleWAC1.240.1716.6738.83-0.83-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1642.8638.35-0.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.1687.5070.880.000.07
Fort WayneSum0.690.1662.5070.890.170.07
GeorgetownBE0.000.1655.5647.600.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.1688.8977.470.000.09
Florida St.ACC0.000.1688.8967.470.000.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.140.0016.33-0.00-0.09
ClemsonACC0.000.1471.4354.560.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.500.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1316.6739.99-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1375.0050.980.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1377.7859.940.000.03
DukeACC0.000.1390.0080.060.000.08
West VirginiaB120.350.1385.7183.250.250.09
North CarolinaACC0.000.1387.5081.910.000.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1342.8650.33-0.000.00
LamarSlnd0.450.1242.8640.38-0.06-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.390.1225.0042.78-0.20-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.820.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1142.8658.24-0.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.010.000.01
VCUA100.000.1175.0072.930.000.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.88-0.000.02
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.650.000.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1128.5727.38-0.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.000.1177.7866.740.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.760.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1175.0048.980.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1111.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.1057.1436.370.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.1088.8978.430.000.06
Iowa St.B120.000.1075.0071.330.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0057.950.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1060.0062.420.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0940.0054.81-0.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0942.8637.05-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0055.44-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0920.0022.88-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.0925.0023.99-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.450.0942.8645.65-0.06-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0957.1450.860.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.080.0025.31-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.0887.5061.660.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0875.0058.720.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0837.5050.92-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0022.75-0.00-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.080.0022.30-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.0842.8650.57-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6743.53-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0840.0039.19-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0812.5029.77-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0850.0041.640.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0857.1453.860.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0850.0071.340.000.03
RichmondA100.350.0850.0048.500.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0850.0042.770.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.390.0855.5646.770.04-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.450.0830.0045.49-0.18-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0837.5043.19-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0833.3336.67-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.740.0875.0062.450.370.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0816.6738.87-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0862.5052.400.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0825.0041.19-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0888.8956.710.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.390.080.0036.38-0.39-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0862.5062.080.000.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.070.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0812.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.08-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.350.0828.5746.79-0.15-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0844.4451.58-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0871.4348.030.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0812.5033.18-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.350.0820.0035.15-0.21-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0064.910.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0657.1457.780.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.450.0660.0058.900.090.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3351.98-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0611.1120.27-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6770.400.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0070.350.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.390.0516.6740.32-0.26-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.390.0557.1451.740.060.00
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.490.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5642.150.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0533.3355.64-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.740.0570.0070.530.300.02
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5067.080.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.350.0562.5050.630.090.00
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0550.0041.460.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.44-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0562.5044.840.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.75-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0544.4438.15-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0512.5026.05-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3340.37-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0528.5752.65-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.390.0577.7870.290.220.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.440.000.03
DrakeMVC0.450.050.0020.21-0.45-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.690.05100.0092.200.690.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.740.0516.6729.83-0.49-0.02
NavyPat0.350.0533.3338.56-0.12-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.32-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.29-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0587.5069.040.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.90-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0585.7157.280.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.07-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5030.11-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0061.350.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0525.0030.02-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.350.0557.1454.200.050.00
TCUB120.000.05100.0060.950.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0550.0066.380.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.390.0562.5067.590.100.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0537.5038.08-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8629.20-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0050.170.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.820.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.920.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0357.1456.540.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0357.1450.730.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.34-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.450.0385.7153.770.320.00
VMISC0.000.030.0016.56-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0312.5028.64-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.350.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.350.0325.0038.98-0.17-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.350.0366.6761.690.120.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.450.0337.5037.96-0.11-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0362.5062.120.000.01
OhioMAC0.350.0383.3371.500.230.01
RadfordBSth0.350.0328.5734.49-0.15-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4355.570.000.00
UtahP120.390.0380.0058.220.230.00
UTEPCUSA0.350.0320.0035.46-0.21-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6753.730.000.00
YaleIvy0.350.0342.8663.63-0.050.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8660.66-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.350.0342.8645.85-0.05-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0056.270.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.350.030.0020.63-0.35-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0344.4443.25-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.49-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.02-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0377.7886.650.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.060.000.00