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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:169.8
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:269
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-925.00.01%
20-1047.20.06%
19-1159.80.30%
18-1278.40.62%
17-1391.71.99%
16-14109.84.72%
15-15128.59.18%
14-16146.215.47%
13-17164.119.66%
12-18181.819.54%
11-19198.914.54%
10-20214.98.54%
9-21230.73.95%
8-22247.51.10%
7-23260.30.27%
6-24277.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Houston Baptist (321.6)SlndH65-58W100%0.0
11-17Brown (267.8)IvyA56-69W100%0.0
11-20North Florida (220.5)ASunH69-67W100%0.0
11-22Elon (231.7)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
11-25Miami OH (237.8)MACN0-070%6.3
12-3Georgia Tech (84.5)ACCH0-040%-3.0
12-6Butler (78.3)BEA0-017%-11.6
12-14Mississippi Valley St. (344.2)SWACH0-096%20.7
12-17Central Michigan (211.7)MACH0-073%7.4
12-20Western Michigan (127.8)MACH0-060%2.9
12-22Illinois Chicago (270.5)HorzH0-076%8.5
12-27Northern Kentucky (256.4)ASunH0-081%10.6
12-30Rutgers (170.5)B10A0-035%-4.5
1-4Wisconsin (6.2)B10H0-08%-16.5
1-11Michigan St. (30.7)B10A0-07%-17.7
1-14Illinois (42.0)B10H0-025%-8.2
1-17Michigan (46.1)B10A0-011%-14.9
1-22Ohio St. (38.8)B10H0-022%-9.3
1-25Maryland (57.7)B10A0-013%-13.5
1-31Purdue (64.5)B10H0-032%-5.7
2-3Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-017%-11.3
2-7Wisconsin (6.2)B10A0-02%-23.7
2-10Michigan St. (30.7)B10H0-019%-10.5
2-15Iowa (38.6)B10H0-021%-9.6
2-18Minnesota (62.9)B10A0-013%-13.6
2-21Penn St. (122.0)B10H0-048%-0.5
2-25Indiana (67.9)B10H0-033%-5.4
2-28Illinois (42.0)B10A0-010%-15.3
3-3Michigan (46.1)B10H0-026%-7.7
3-7Iowa (38.6)B10A0-08%-16.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1033.8526.16100.0036.0533.85-7.30
IllinoisB100.003.99100.0066.000.001.28
IowaB100.003.9650.0064.200.001.13
WisconsinB100.003.95100.0084.180.002.70
Michigan St.B100.003.9566.6770.460.001.62
MichiganB100.003.95100.0063.040.001.03
NebraskaB100.002.4066.6751.190.000.06
Ohio St.B100.002.37100.0071.120.001.00
IndianaB100.002.37100.0061.860.000.56
MinnesotaB100.002.3466.6760.430.000.49
PurdueB100.002.34100.0060.270.000.48
RutgersB100.002.3250.0036.620.00-0.62
MarylandB100.002.32100.0063.730.000.64
Penn St.B100.002.3275.0047.020.00-0.14
Northern KentuckyASun0.001.8233.3341.83-0.00-0.30
North FloridaASun12.501.810.0048.94-12.50-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.001.7966.6734.250.00-0.56
Western MichiganMAC0.001.76100.0055.280.000.19
Central MichiganMAC0.001.76100.0046.820.00-0.11
BrownIvy12.501.7233.3338.69-4.17-0.39
ElonCAA12.501.7050.0042.740.00-0.25
ButlerBE0.001.69100.0061.080.000.38
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.690.0018.97-0.00-1.05
Georgia TechACC0.001.67100.0052.840.000.09
Houston BaptistSlnd12.501.670.0026.85-12.50-0.77
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.6725.0036.07-0.00-0.46
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.31100.0049.250.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.27100.0045.990.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.2566.6760.610.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2420.0026.89-0.00-0.11
ToledoMAC0.000.1933.3364.19-0.000.05
AkronMAC0.000.1866.6763.730.000.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.18100.0051.050.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.170.0032.48-0.00-0.06
DukeACC0.000.17100.0086.130.000.13
MarquetteBE0.000.1733.3340.91-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.17100.0073.290.000.08
Ball St.MAC0.000.160.0036.36-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1650.0056.270.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.150.0034.81-0.00-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.15100.0070.980.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.15100.0074.620.000.07
SyracuseACC0.000.1475.0068.160.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0037.22-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.12100.0072.860.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0025.03-0.00-0.06
LipscombASun0.000.120.0042.80-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.120.0032.07-0.00-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.12100.0061.500.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1225.0035.61-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0033.700.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.120.0046.61-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1233.3354.50-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.120.0031.23-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.1250.0068.880.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0033.68-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.000.12100.0071.440.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.110.0067.49-0.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.110.0033.14-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC1.560.1166.6752.030.520.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1166.6758.650.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1125.0033.97-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0065.270.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0078.630.000.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0031.92-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1125.0051.56-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0052.260.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.100.0050.76-0.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.100.0034.03-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0071.440.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0933.3346.79-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0041.97-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0049.760.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0966.6748.790.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.630.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0966.6762.540.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0925.0035.71-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA2.080.09100.0070.032.080.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0950.0051.120.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0940.0040.58-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0035.64-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.090.0032.23-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0055.850.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.640.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0950.0063.720.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0069.670.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0966.6746.540.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0047.840.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0037.850.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.090.0038.59-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.540.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0041.59-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0950.0054.620.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0073.530.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6749.590.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0056.980.000.01
Northern IowaMVC2.080.08100.0072.422.080.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0850.0037.890.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.08100.0062.070.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.0025.50-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0038.72-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0833.3322.74-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.080.0036.19-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.08100.0061.830.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0028.76-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0766.6767.990.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0067.09-0.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0044.91-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.060.0018.23-0.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0047.120.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0033.75-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.41-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0056.39-0.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0029.55-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6762.810.000.02
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.21-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0675.0053.860.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6744.970.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6768.230.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.17-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.36-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.560.060.0028.32-1.56-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.720.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.180.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.040.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.830.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.290.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.08-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.18-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0034.510.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0032.70-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.44-0.000.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6758.230.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0044.810.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.05100.0050.830.000.00
TexasB120.000.05100.0081.740.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.00-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.19-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB3.120.0375.0057.061.560.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.98-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3353.79-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.330.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC2.080.0350.0054.290.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.74-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.080.030.0034.98-2.08-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
Holy CrossPat1.560.03100.0063.361.560.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0034.55-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.620.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6773.760.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3325.18-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6768.980.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0031.980.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.01-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.730.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3332.78-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0056.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0038.370.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3357.45-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0052.590.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0049.460.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.24-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.550.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0045.12-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0060.360.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.00