live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Northwestern

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:115.0
Current RPI:115
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:136
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:326



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-12115.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH79-57W100%0.0
11-18Fairfield (142.0)MAACH79-72W100%0.0
11-20Columbia (132.0)IvyH83-80W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina (5.0)ACCN80-69L0%0.0
11-24Missouri (222.0)SECN67-62W100%0.0
11-28New Orleans (343.0)SlndH90-63W100%0.0
12-1Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA79-81W100%0.0
12-5SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH81-56W100%0.0
12-13Chicago St. (348.0)WACH77-35W100%0.0
12-15Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH78-48W100%0.0
12-19DePaul (198.0)BEA70-78W100%0.0
12-21Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH103-67W100%0.0
12-27Loyola MD (255.0)PatH74-59W100%0.0
12-30Nebraska (165.0)B10A72-81W100%0.0
1-2Maryland (14.0)B10H59-72L0%0.0
1-6Ohio St. (74.0)B10H56-65L0%0.0
1-9Minnesota (257.0)B10A52-77W100%0.0
1-12Wisconsin (43.0)B10H70-65W100%0.0
1-16Penn St. (125.0)B10H62-71L0%0.0
1-19Maryland (14.0)B10A62-56L0%0.0
1-23Indiana (24.0)B10A89-57L0%0.0
1-28Michigan St. (12.0)B10H45-76L0%0.0
1-31Iowa (28.0)B10A85-71L0%0.0
2-4Minnesota (257.0)B10H82-58W100%0.0
2-9Ohio St. (74.0)B10A71-63L0%0.0
2-13Illinois (149.0)B10H58-56W100%0.0
2-16Purdue (15.0)B10A71-61L0%0.0
2-24Michigan (56.0)B10A72-63L0%0.0
2-27Rutgers (294.0)B10H98-59W100%0.0
3-3Penn St. (125.0)B10A61-71W100%0.0
3-6Nebraska (165.0)B10H65-54W100%0.0
3-10Michigan (56.0)B10N72-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northwestern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northwestern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NorthwesternB1026.0826.0859.4259.424.914.91
MichiganB103.783.7861.2961.290.850.85
NebraskaB103.783.7850.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB103.773.7773.3373.331.761.76
Penn St.B103.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B103.733.7358.0658.060.600.60
MinnesotaB103.703.7027.5927.59-1.66-1.66
IllinoisB102.322.3245.4545.45-0.21-0.21
Michigan St.B102.292.2984.8584.851.591.59
PurdueB102.282.2875.7675.761.181.18
RutgersB102.262.2620.0020.00-1.35-1.35
IndianaB102.212.2177.4277.421.211.21
IowaB102.182.1866.6766.670.730.73
WisconsinB102.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
FairfieldMAAC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
Chicago St.WAC1.661.663.573.57-1.54-1.54
North CarolinaACC1.661.6681.8281.821.061.06
DePaulBE1.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
UMass LowellAE1.611.6137.0437.04-0.42-0.42
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6123.5323.53-0.85-0.85
ColumbiaIvy1.591.5967.8667.860.570.57
Loyola MDPat1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
MissouriSEC1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
Virginia TechACC1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
New OrleansSlnd1.561.5626.9226.92-0.72-0.72
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.561.5622.2222.22-0.87-0.87
ConnecticutAmer0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
UMKCWAC0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
MarquetteBE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01