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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Milwaukee

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:242.2
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:254
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11166.50.02%
17-12191.40.63%
16-13206.95.74%
15-14221.918.08%
14-15236.831.21%
13-16251.625.56%
12-17266.513.85%
11-18281.04.30%
10-19296.00.54%
9-20305.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Milwaukee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Iowa St. (107.1)B12A56-74W100%0.0
11-18FIU (287.9)CUSAH66-51W100%0.0
11-19Elon (143.4)CAAH72-71W100%0.0
11-24Wisconsin (128.8)B10A71-49L0%0.0
11-29Northern Illinois (225.3)MACA62-75W100%0.0
12-2Montana St. (220.8)BSkyH64-68L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (301.6)ASunA52-62W100%0.0
12-9Western Illinois (297.6)SumA90-69L0%0.0
12-13Belmont (82.3)OVCA82-63L0%0.0
12-16Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCH73-56W100%0.0
12-22Western Michigan (163.8)MACH63-66L0%0.0
12-28Oakland (137.4)HorzH68-76L0%0.0
12-30Detroit (297.3)HorzH87-79W100%0.0
1-4Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzA72-63L0%0.0
1-6Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzA63-67W100%0.0
1-10IUPUI (300.2)HorzA72-71L0%0.0
1-12Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA88-73L0%0.0
1-15Green Bay (325.1)HorzA99-92L0%0.0
1-18Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzH64-91L0%0.0
1-20Wright St. (110.8)HorzH66-61W100%0.0
1-25Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH0-078%8.7
1-27Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzH0-075%7.7
1-29Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzH0-061%3.0
2-2Green Bay (325.1)HorzH0-072%6.6
2-8Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzA0-010%-14.4
2-10Wright St. (110.8)HorzA0-022%-8.4
2-16IUPUI (300.2)HorzH0-074%7.0
2-22Detroit (297.3)HorzA0-053%0.8
2-24Oakland (137.4)HorzA0-019%-9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Milwaukee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Milwaukee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Milwaukee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MilwaukeeHorz26.3626.4146.7447.48-1.72-1.33
Green BayHorz3.294.4921.0525.18-1.90-2.23
Wright St.Horz3.094.4772.2271.511.371.92
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.094.4638.8944.26-0.69-0.51
OaklandHorz3.034.4460.0063.430.611.19
Cleveland St.Horz3.034.4421.0524.13-1.76-2.30
DetroitHorz3.034.4322.2226.14-1.68-2.12
IUPUIHorz3.114.4323.5327.15-1.65-2.03
Youngstown St.Horz2.954.4116.6720.75-1.97-2.58
Northern KentuckyHorz2.954.4064.7171.530.871.89
Western MichiganMAC2.691.9650.0050.530.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC2.701.9343.7540.56-0.34-0.37
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.631.8483.3376.841.750.99
Western IllinoisSum2.641.8238.4632.30-0.61-0.64
Iowa St.B122.661.7964.7148.850.78-0.04
BelmontOVC2.561.7970.0073.811.030.85
WisconsinB102.561.7947.3744.51-0.13-0.20
JacksonvilleASun2.571.7835.2935.07-0.75-0.53
ElonCAA2.571.7555.5652.910.290.10
FIUCUSA2.571.7537.5036.85-0.64-0.46
Montana St.BSky2.501.7247.0645.79-0.15-0.15
ToledoMAC0.330.3566.6767.700.110.12
Kent St.MAC0.410.2744.4444.92-0.05-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.370.2629.4133.93-0.15-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.280.2552.6351.690.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.2346.6746.97-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.230.1947.0641.41-0.01-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1861.1158.700.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.1877.7879.150.110.11
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1823.5328.69-0.07-0.08
Michigan St.B100.120.1785.0083.200.090.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.1636.8432.76-0.06-0.05
StetsonASun0.140.1633.3336.93-0.05-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.210.1525.0028.24-0.10-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1558.8249.760.02-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1544.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1531.5832.72-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1562.5058.690.020.03
Murray St.OVC0.190.1570.5975.950.080.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1568.4270.810.070.06
Chicago St.WAC0.270.140.003.07-0.27-0.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.1325.0028.01-0.11-0.06
South DakotaSum0.160.1373.6872.380.070.06
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1330.0032.52-0.06-0.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1265.0057.880.040.02
LipscombASun0.190.1252.9459.340.010.02
PurdueB100.130.1290.4888.370.110.09
MichiganB100.140.1276.1970.740.070.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.1272.2274.930.070.06
DePaulBE0.130.1242.1134.31-0.02-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1247.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1270.0068.300.050.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1258.8257.140.020.02
AkronMAC0.210.1247.0644.91-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.130.1263.1665.970.030.04
KansasB120.130.1184.2179.750.090.07
DenverSum0.070.1033.3336.48-0.02-0.03
ButlerBE0.160.1066.6763.070.050.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0957.8966.260.010.03
North FloridaASun0.140.0931.5835.15-0.05-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.140.0938.8944.08-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0938.8940.78-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0911.1115.29-0.11-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.0937.5037.68-0.04-0.02
MissouriSEC0.130.0966.6763.200.040.02
South CarolinaSEC0.220.0961.1151.910.050.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0941.1838.47-0.01-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0961.9063.140.030.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0943.7540.93-0.01-0.02
Saint LouisA100.140.0947.3746.92-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.0922.2227.33-0.07-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.140.0945.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0944.4450.08-0.020.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.095.8819.35-0.11-0.05
IndianaB100.130.0957.8950.710.020.00
SeattleWAC0.130.0957.8954.500.020.01
UCLAP120.130.0965.0062.050.040.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0952.3848.530.01-0.00
IowaB100.140.0947.6244.02-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.130.0961.1156.090.030.01
RutgersB100.130.0955.0046.690.01-0.01
TCUB120.130.0973.6865.600.060.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0744.4450.310.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0772.2272.980.040.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.61-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.140.0661.1164.130.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0610.0019.63-0.05-0.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0660.0064.110.010.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0672.2258.920.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.650.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.750.040.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0611.1117.680.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.960.030.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.290.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.140.0635.0026.12-0.04-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0627.7831.71-0.06-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0621.4326.35-0.04-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0647.3743.020.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.09-0.07-0.05
DrakeMVC0.000.0655.0048.980.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0652.6347.520.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0664.7166.850.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.970.030.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0670.5973.150.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0643.7554.11-0.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.220.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0647.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0658.8263.210.010.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0616.6724.45-0.05-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0655.0052.470.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0668.4257.740.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7159.990.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0672.2274.710.060.03
Appalachian St.SB0.140.0633.3337.23-0.05-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.0678.9576.990.080.03
TulsaAmer0.140.0655.0053.320.010.00
MarquetteBE0.140.0668.4260.550.050.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0642.1143.51-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0627.7831.11-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0689.4785.550.050.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.069.5217.90-0.05-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0657.1453.050.010.00
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.090.030.00
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.630.020.01
Texas TechB120.070.0678.9571.810.040.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0684.2178.170.000.03
IllinoisB100.060.0647.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0670.0068.220.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0666.6759.820.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0637.5045.24-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0668.4261.230.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0635.2940.480.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0657.8953.190.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0621.0544.26-0.03-0.01
AmericanPat0.090.0426.3228.11-0.04-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.070.030.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.740.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
HartfordAE0.070.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.650.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.260.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.210.050.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0338.8946.050.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.67-0.07-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0318.7536.82-0.04-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.850.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.600.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0356.2557.400.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.45-0.05-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.250.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0363.6457.630.000.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0380.9576.520.040.01
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.760.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0310.5318.34-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.020.01
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.740.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0394.7486.140.060.02
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.020.01
XavierBE0.060.0385.7180.080.040.02
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00