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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Milwaukee

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:231.0
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:280
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:233


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16231.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Milwaukee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Iowa St. (144.0)B12A56-74W100%0.0
11-18FIU (295.0)CUSAH66-51W100%0.0
11-19Elon (205.0)CAAH72-71W100%0.0
11-24Wisconsin (114.0)B10A71-49L0%0.0
11-29Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA62-75W100%0.0
12-2Montana St. (283.0)BSkyH64-68L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (286.0)ASunA52-62W100%0.0
12-9Western Illinois (302.0)SumA90-69L0%0.0
12-13Belmont (81.0)OVCA82-63L0%0.0
12-16Loyola Chicago (22.0)MVCH73-56W100%0.0
12-22Western Michigan (177.0)MACH63-66L0%0.0
12-28Oakland (182.0)HorzH68-76L0%0.0
12-30Detroit (318.0)HorzH87-79W100%0.0
1-4Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzA72-63L0%0.0
1-6Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzA63-67W100%0.0
1-10IUPUI (294.0)HorzA72-71L0%0.0
1-12Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzA88-73L0%0.0
1-15Green Bay (303.0)HorzA99-92L0%0.0
1-18Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzH64-91L0%0.0
1-20Wright St. (99.0)HorzH66-61W100%0.0
1-25Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzH66-55W100%0.0
1-27Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzH70-47W100%0.0
1-29Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzH56-74L0%0.0
2-2Green Bay (303.0)HorzH76-58W100%0.0
2-8Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzA54-52L0%0.0
2-10Wright St. (99.0)HorzA73-74W100%0.0
2-16IUPUI (294.0)HorzH71-76L0%0.0
2-22Detroit (318.0)HorzA49-72W100%0.0
2-24Oakland (182.0)HorzA72-70L0%0.0
3-4Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzN75-80W100%0.0
3-5Wright St. (99.0)HorzN59-53L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Milwaukee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Milwaukee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Milwaukee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MilwaukeeHorz26.5126.5148.9748.97-0.55-0.55
Wright St.Horz5.905.9075.8675.863.053.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.785.7848.1548.15-0.21-0.21
Cleveland St.Horz4.454.4534.3834.38-1.39-1.39
Green BayHorz4.384.3832.1432.14-1.56-1.56
OaklandHorz4.314.3154.8454.840.420.42
DetroitHorz4.254.2521.4321.43-2.43-2.43
IUPUIHorz4.254.2526.9226.92-1.96-1.96
Youngstown St.Horz4.224.2217.8617.86-2.71-2.71
Northern KentuckyHorz4.224.2266.6766.671.411.41
Northern IllinoisMAC1.831.8337.9337.93-0.44-0.44
Western MichiganMAC1.821.8248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.771.7787.1087.101.311.31
Western IllinoisSum1.701.7030.4330.43-0.66-0.66
JacksonvilleASun1.691.6939.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Iowa St.B121.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
BelmontOVC1.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
WisconsinB101.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
ElonCAA1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
FIUCUSA1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Montana St.BSky1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
ToledoMAC0.330.3366.6766.670.110.11
Kent St.MAC0.280.2848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.2158.6258.620.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.180.1882.7682.760.120.12
Michigan St.B100.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
Ball St.MAC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1622.2222.22-0.09-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
DePaulBE0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.333.33-0.12-0.12
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
PurdueB100.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
MichiganB100.110.1179.4179.410.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
DenverSum0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TCUB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Washington St.P120.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00