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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Milwaukee

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:256.0
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:164
Current Record:10-24
Expected Record:10-24
Current Conf Record:7-15
Expected Conf Record:7-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-24256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Milwaukee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Memphis (120.0)AmerA68-54L0%0.0
11-20DePaul (239.0)BEA77-59L0%0.0
11-25East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCN62-86L0%0.0
11-26UC Irvine (135.0)BWN37-54W100%0.0
11-27South Dakota St. (160.0)SumN81-58L0%0.0
11-30Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH72-67W100%0.0
12-3Montana (221.0)BSkyA75-69L0%0.0
12-5Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA78-83W100%0.0
12-10Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA72-56L0%0.0
12-14Ohio (117.0)MACA71-69L0%0.0
12-17Western Illinois (325.0)SumH59-75L0%0.0
12-19Belmont (61.0)OVCH56-62L0%0.0
12-29Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA88-87L0%0.0
12-31Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA62-53L0%0.0
1-6Green Bay (157.0)HorzA80-74L0%0.0
1-12Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH68-58W100%0.0
1-14Wright St. (115.0)HorzH67-70L0%0.0
1-17Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA71-57L0%0.0
1-20Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH63-62W100%0.0
1-22Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH94-85W100%0.0
1-27Detroit (289.0)HorzA69-73W100%0.0
1-29Oakland (109.0)HorzA79-70L0%0.0
2-2Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH53-71L0%0.0
2-4Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH100-105L0%0.0
2-9Wright St. (115.0)HorzA76-65L0%0.0
2-11Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA69-63L0%0.0
2-18Green Bay (157.0)HorzH56-80L0%0.0
2-21Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA67-61L0%0.0
2-24Detroit (289.0)HorzH74-81L0%0.0
2-26Oakland (109.0)HorzH75-86L0%0.0
3-3Detroit (289.0)HorzA60-85W100%0.0
3-4Valparaiso (71.0)HorzN41-43W100%0.0
3-6Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzN68-74W100%0.0
3-7Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzN59-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Milwaukee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Milwaukee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Milwaukee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MilwaukeeHorz26.6326.6330.3830.38-10.45-10.45
Northern KentuckyHorz5.435.4368.9768.972.062.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.425.4239.2939.29-1.16-1.16
DetroitHorz5.345.3422.2222.22-2.97-2.97
ValparaisoHorz5.335.3375.0075.002.662.66
Youngstown St.Horz4.104.1033.3333.33-1.37-1.37
Cleveland St.Horz4.004.0025.0025.00-2.00-2.00
Wright St.Horz3.993.9957.1457.140.570.57
Green BayHorz3.973.9751.8551.850.150.15
OaklandHorz3.953.9571.4371.431.691.69
South Dakota St.Sum1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC1.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
DePaulBE1.541.5425.8125.81-0.75-0.75
UC IrvineBW1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
BelmontOVC1.521.5276.9276.920.820.82
MontanaBSky1.521.5248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC1.521.5262.0762.070.370.37
JacksonvilleASun1.521.5248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky1.521.5248.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum1.521.5220.0020.00-0.91-0.91
MemphisAmer1.471.4758.0658.060.240.24
ToledoMAC0.290.2950.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.240.2410.3410.34-0.19-0.19
South DakotaSum0.230.2364.5264.520.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.2244.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2021.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Miami OHMAC0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1912.9012.90-0.14-0.14
Fort WayneSum0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
IdahoBSky0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
DenverSum0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
UC DavisBW0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.100.1067.8667.860.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
OregonP120.090.0984.8584.850.070.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
NevadaMWC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0418.5218.52-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00