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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Milwaukee

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:274.5
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:155
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21257.614.32%
8-22272.058.87%
7-23289.326.81%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Milwaukee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Memphis (105.7)AmerA68-54L0%0.0
11-20DePaul (227.3)BEA77-59L0%0.0
11-25East Tennessee St. (63.5)SCN62-86L0%0.0
11-26UC Irvine (151.4)BWN37-54W100%0.0
11-27South Dakota St. (206.9)SumN81-58L0%0.0
11-30Jacksonville (279.5)ASunH72-67W100%0.0
12-3Montana (217.9)BSkyA75-69L0%0.0
12-5Montana St. (250.7)BSkyA78-83W100%0.0
12-10Loyola Chicago (152.6)MVCA72-56L0%0.0
12-14Ohio (100.8)MACA71-69L0%0.0
12-17Western Illinois (316.8)SumH59-75L0%0.0
12-19Belmont (56.8)OVCH56-62L0%0.0
12-29Youngstown St. (269.3)HorzA88-87L0%0.0
12-31Cleveland St. (251.5)HorzA62-53L0%0.0
1-6Green Bay (132.9)HorzA80-74L0%0.0
1-12Northern Kentucky (116.8)HorzH68-58W100%0.0
1-14Wright St. (116.2)HorzH67-70L0%0.0
1-17Illinois Chicago (241.3)HorzA71-57L0%0.0
1-20Cleveland St. (251.5)HorzH63-62W100%0.0
1-22Youngstown St. (269.3)HorzH94-85W100%0.0
1-27Detroit (287.1)HorzA69-73W100%0.0
1-29Oakland (115.8)HorzA79-70L0%0.0
2-2Valparaiso (62.5)HorzH53-71L0%0.0
2-4Illinois Chicago (241.3)HorzH100-105L0%0.0
2-9Wright St. (116.2)HorzA76-65L0%0.0
2-11Northern Kentucky (116.8)HorzA69-63L0%0.0
2-18Green Bay (132.9)HorzH56-80L0%0.0
2-21Valparaiso (62.5)HorzA67-61L0%0.0
2-24Detroit (287.1)HorzH0-065%4.2
2-26Oakland (115.8)HorzH0-022%-8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Milwaukee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Milwaukee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Milwaukee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MilwaukeeHorz26.3926.3825.4125.37-12.98-12.99
Cleveland St.Horz4.504.3123.0824.98-2.42-2.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.424.3140.0038.96-0.88-0.95
Youngstown St.Horz4.464.2830.7730.58-1.72-1.66
DetroitHorz2.734.2823.0822.75-1.47-2.33
Wright St.Horz4.394.2860.0059.670.880.83
ValparaisoHorz4.364.2676.9275.772.352.19
Northern KentuckyHorz4.364.2564.0063.541.221.15
OaklandHorz2.704.2573.0872.351.251.90
Green BayHorz4.424.2554.1755.090.370.43
South Dakota St.Sum1.961.8240.7441.30-0.36-0.32
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.921.7855.5655.530.210.20
East Tennessee St.SC1.881.7876.9277.201.010.97
UC IrvineBW1.881.7553.8556.310.140.22
BelmontOVC1.851.7279.1779.111.081.00
DePaulBE1.851.7229.6328.59-0.75-0.74
JacksonvilleASun1.851.7252.0051.270.070.04
MontanaBSky1.821.7248.1548.68-0.07-0.05
OhioMAC1.851.7266.6767.390.620.60
Western IllinoisSum1.851.7222.7322.84-1.01-0.94
Montana St.BSky1.821.7248.0047.68-0.07-0.08
MemphisAmer1.791.6765.3861.940.550.40
ToledoMAC0.300.2948.1549.49-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.240.2421.4321.43-0.14-0.14
Murray St.OVC0.240.2446.1546.49-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.210.2340.7440.19-0.04-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.230.2312.0011.80-0.18-0.18
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.2146.1546.96-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.200.2162.9662.810.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.210.2130.7729.92-0.08-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.140.1860.0060.590.030.04
Central MichiganMAC0.210.1853.8551.910.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.170.1755.5655.100.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1742.3143.63-0.03-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.1764.0065.600.060.05
IdahoBSky0.200.1747.8350.77-0.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1712.0013.36-0.12-0.12
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1751.7250.330.010.00
DenverSum0.140.1657.1456.680.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1551.8551.810.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1544.0046.00-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1540.7442.17-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.170.1477.7876.390.090.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1437.9339.64-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.140.1355.5655.680.020.01
IUPUISum0.140.1238.4639.08-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1265.3864.780.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1248.1547.60-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1230.7732.11-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1237.5039.90-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1158.6258.690.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1155.5655.020.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1159.2657.930.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1148.2848.17-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.130.1122.2223.45-0.07-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.130.1163.6464.970.040.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1123.0823.14-0.07-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.130.1125.0027.75-0.07-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1135.7135.66-0.04-0.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1182.1481.760.080.07
UC DavisBW0.070.1156.0055.930.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.1116.0016.87-0.05-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.130.1140.9144.15-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1134.7836.95-0.04-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.1160.8760.770.010.02
WyomingMWC0.130.1153.8553.510.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0929.6331.16-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0937.0436.81-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.110.0960.7159.890.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0914.8115.43-0.07-0.06
AmericanPat0.100.0925.0025.07-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.100.0982.1480.780.070.06
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0930.7730.10-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0959.2659.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0920.0022.21-0.06-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.0916.0018.13-0.07-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.100.0944.0042.77-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0948.0046.99-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.0966.6766.780.030.03
PacificWCC0.100.0932.1432.21-0.04-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0948.0047.41-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0946.1546.92-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0948.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0986.2186.330.070.06
Ball St.MAC0.100.0962.9661.340.030.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0978.5778.260.040.05
Washington St.P120.100.0842.3139.94-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0850.0049.560.00-0.00
OregonP120.100.0885.7185.930.070.06
UC RiversideBW0.060.0826.0928.38-0.03-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.060.0860.7160.840.010.02
TempleAmer0.100.0848.2850.61-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0651.8551.270.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0657.6956.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0673.0873.880.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0640.7440.75-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0629.6330.60-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0629.6328.76-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0650.0049.750.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0650.0050.440.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0681.4880.840.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0629.6328.42-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0669.2368.600.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0634.4834.78-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0669.5771.400.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0665.3866.650.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0637.0435.10-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.060.0635.7134.58-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0655.5656.900.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0642.8643.65-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0678.5776.210.020.03
FurmanSC0.070.0664.2964.510.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0653.8554.930.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0660.0059.400.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0665.3865.420.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0682.1481.630.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0633.3332.68-0.01-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0640.7440.78-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0657.6958.050.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0631.0331.60-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0675.0077.120.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.030.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.5752.340.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0655.5656.300.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0664.2964.460.020.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0623.0822.08-0.04-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0669.2368.790.010.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0636.0035.97-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.070.0616.0016.75-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0678.5777.800.040.03
WoffordSC0.070.0644.4443.90-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0622.2222.75-0.02-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0666.6766.210.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0651.7249.530.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0629.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0633.3334.37-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0661.5459.750.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0665.5264.140.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0650.0049.820.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0643.4843.27-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0625.9326.05-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0648.0047.45-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0612.5014.87-0.05-0.04
ButlerBE0.060.0578.5777.620.040.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0550.0049.270.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.060.0577.7875.390.040.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0550.0049.130.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0570.3769.130.010.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0562.9661.410.020.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0560.7159.870.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0562.9661.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0585.7185.540.020.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0526.9225.66-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0518.5218.47-0.02-0.03
TulsaAmer0.070.0546.1547.81-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0564.2963.820.020.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0589.6688.760.050.04
XavierBE0.030.0564.2964.300.010.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.600.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0353.5751.920.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.6233.56-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.8552.600.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.0020.88-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.030.003.38-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.0029.86-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0335.7137.15-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0355.5652.750.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0362.0762.320.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0353.8554.710.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0358.3359.220.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0348.0047.16-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0352.1749.960.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0380.7779.440.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.9327.44-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0344.4444.02-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.0055.900.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0351.8550.690.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.0063.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0357.6958.100.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0351.8552.250.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0381.4881.510.020.02
UtahP120.030.0360.0060.170.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.2987.680.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3384.080.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0388.8989.350.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0342.3143.98-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0340.0041.64-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0388.8987.450.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0331.8233.09-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0353.5751.590.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.5042.38-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0350.0052.050.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0322.7323.17-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0382.7681.880.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0371.4368.340.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0333.3333.59-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.33-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0370.3770.540.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0351.8553.220.000.00
USCP120.030.0377.7875.870.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0328.0028.37-0.01-0.01