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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


FIU

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:336.8
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:265
Current Record:4-21
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:2-12
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-13
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21314.80.14%
7-22326.75.24%
6-23334.032.26%
5-24338.245.35%
4-25341.417.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for FIU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Stetson (330.9)ASunA82-67L0%0.0
11-18South Alabama (217.8)SBA69-64L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville (279.5)ASunN75-78L0%0.0
11-20Youngstown St. (269.3)HorzN78-73L0%0.0
11-27Binghamton (290.7)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-30Elon (135.4)CAAA84-81L0%0.0
12-4South Carolina (30.8)SECA70-54L0%0.0
12-11Florida Gulf Coast (84.3)ASunA82-63L0%0.0
12-15Georgia Southern (117.9)SBH68-75L0%0.0
12-17Northern Illinois (217.2)MACH53-60L0%0.0
12-21North Florida (239.9)ASunH78-54W100%0.0
12-31Marshall (124.6)CUSAH70-94L0%0.0
1-2Western Kentucky (218.0)CUSAH66-69L0%0.0
1-7Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
1-12UTEP (261.3)CUSAA88-87L0%0.0
1-14UTSA (301.2)CUSAA57-55L0%0.0
1-19Middle Tennessee (35.5)CUSAH52-65L0%0.0
1-21UAB (182.6)CUSAH94-85W100%0.0
1-26Florida Atlantic (278.5)CUSAH65-83L0%0.0
2-2Old Dominion (131.9)CUSAA64-57L0%0.0
2-4Charlotte (235.4)CUSAA95-80L0%0.0
2-9Rice (168.2)CUSAH78-89L0%0.0
2-11North Texas (327.6)CUSAH90-71W100%0.0
2-16Southern Miss (336.3)CUSAA69-66L0%0.0
2-18Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAA77-61L0%0.0
2-23UTSA (301.2)CUSAH0-062%3.4
2-25UTEP (261.3)CUSAH0-045%-1.2
3-2Middle Tennessee (35.5)CUSAA0-03%-19.9
3-4UAB (182.6)CUSAA0-015%-11.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

FIU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


FIU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  FIU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FIUCUSA26.0626.1711.2113.37-20.22-19.17
Florida AtlanticCUSA4.514.1823.8125.62-2.36-2.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.644.1384.6284.501.822.85
UTEPCUSA2.564.1137.5039.01-0.64-0.90
UTSACUSA2.564.1133.3333.53-0.85-1.35
UABCUSA2.604.1053.8553.980.200.33
Louisiana TechCUSA2.672.5068.0069.210.960.96
Southern MissCUSA2.642.4720.8319.67-1.54-1.50
Western KentuckyCUSA2.552.4346.1545.85-0.20-0.20
MarshallCUSA2.552.4352.0053.150.100.15
CharlotteCUSA2.592.4039.1340.24-0.56-0.47
RiceCUSA2.562.3862.5062.200.640.58
Old DominionCUSA2.562.3860.0061.590.510.55
North TexasCUSA2.562.3826.0926.80-1.22-1.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.432.1072.0072.871.070.96
JacksonvilleASun2.271.9748.0047.42-0.09-0.10
South AlabamaSB2.271.9641.6740.73-0.38-0.36
StetsonASun2.231.9526.9226.12-1.03-0.93
North FloridaASun2.191.9132.0033.35-0.79-0.64
Georgia SouthernSB2.161.8556.0053.780.260.14
Youngstown St.Horz2.081.7929.6329.48-0.85-0.73
ElonCAA2.081.7953.8555.360.160.19
BinghamtonAE2.041.7634.6236.13-0.63-0.49
Northern IllinoisMAC2.041.7545.8345.46-0.17-0.16
South CarolinaSEC2.041.7569.2369.530.780.68
USC UpstateASun0.350.2850.0049.750.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.300.2540.7440.75-0.06-0.05
LipscombASun0.300.2555.5655.680.030.03
NJITASun0.300.2529.6330.60-0.12-0.10
ToledoMAC0.230.2348.1549.49-0.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.210.2154.1753.210.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.190.2160.0059.400.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1844.4443.17-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.190.1853.8552.820.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.200.1526.9225.66-0.09-0.07
FloridaSEC0.190.1582.1480.600.120.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1576.0076.570.080.08
James MadisonCAA0.190.1525.0026.38-0.10-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1551.8550.690.000.00
MississippiSEC0.110.1460.7159.870.020.03
HofstraCAA0.160.1242.8642.57-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.160.1253.5752.340.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.1242.3143.63-0.01-0.02
LSUSEC0.150.1233.3331.80-0.05-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1225.0027.77-0.08-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.120.1225.0027.75-0.06-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1248.1548.38-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.120.1260.7159.310.030.02
AkronMAC0.150.1277.7876.390.080.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1256.0055.900.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.1283.3384.080.050.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.1234.7836.63-0.02-0.03
AuburnSEC0.110.1260.7159.670.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1252.1753.700.010.01
VCUA100.110.1282.1479.370.070.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1281.4881.510.070.07
Miami FLACC0.130.1070.3767.240.050.03
HawaiiBW0.130.0948.0047.45-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.0914.8115.43-0.09-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.080.0962.9661.340.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0920.0020.88-0.07-0.05
HartfordAE0.120.0930.0029.22-0.05-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0925.0026.25-0.05-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.0962.9662.450.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.0925.9327.44-0.06-0.04
VermontAE0.110.0982.7682.940.070.06
DrexelCAA0.120.0928.5729.06-0.05-0.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0914.2913.58-0.06-0.07
RadfordBSth0.110.0938.4640.55-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0957.1455.800.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.0935.7135.66-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0969.2368.600.020.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.0946.1547.50-0.01-0.00
Little RockSB0.040.0944.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.0920.0021.74-0.07-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0930.7733.71-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0927.2728.66-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0930.7734.71-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0929.6331.16-0.05-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.094.005.36-0.07-0.08
TowsonCAA0.110.0964.2961.960.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.0952.0053.050.000.01
OhioMAC0.120.0968.0068.550.040.03
DetroitHorz0.110.0922.2222.38-0.06-0.05
MemphisAmer0.070.0966.6763.170.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0953.5751.920.010.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0980.0079.920.040.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0988.8989.350.060.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0659.2659.740.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0634.6233.56-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0620.0022.21-0.05-0.03
DavidsonA100.080.0653.8552.600.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0640.7442.89-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.080.0657.1456.680.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0659.2657.930.010.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0658.6259.810.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0653.8551.910.010.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0646.4343.89-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0637.5039.90-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0655.5655.100.010.01
MaineAE0.040.0617.2417.48-0.02-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0630.7729.92-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0657.6958.050.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0660.7159.030.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0661.5460.470.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0675.0071.920.040.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0628.0029.86-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0658.6257.910.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0675.0073.470.040.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0631.0331.60-0.03-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.060.003.38-0.08-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.070.0661.5459.750.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0637.5042.38-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0625.0026.71-0.02-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0671.4372.700.030.03
DelawareCAA0.040.0637.0435.10-0.01-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0657.6957.750.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0657.6958.300.010.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0650.0052.050.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0657.1456.440.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0623.0823.14-0.02-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0662.9662.600.020.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0674.0773.500.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0660.8762.050.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0651.8554.430.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0678.5777.380.040.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0653.5750.750.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0628.0028.91-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0635.7134.80-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0622.2224.27-0.02-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0642.8643.65-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.040.0664.2964.510.010.02
George WashingtonA100.040.0651.8551.210.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0653.8554.930.010.01
KansasB120.040.0689.2987.840.030.04
Murray St.OVC0.040.0646.1546.49-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.040.0651.8552.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0657.6956.380.010.01
TexasB120.040.0635.7134.84-0.01-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.9325.77-0.04-0.03
BaylorB120.040.0381.4878.550.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0369.5771.400.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0350.0049.270.00-0.00
La SalleA100.040.0353.8554.810.000.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0363.6464.970.010.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0348.2848.54-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0328.0028.37-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0339.2938.46-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0343.4843.27-0.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0340.0040.08-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0318.5220.01-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.040.0331.0332.74-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.040.0325.0025.31-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0378.5776.210.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.040.0360.0060.590.010.01
IdahoBSky0.040.0347.8350.77-0.000.00
IowaB100.040.0353.5751.590.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.040.0348.1549.03-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.040.0377.7876.990.020.02
RutgersB100.040.0342.8642.33-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0358.3359.220.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.040.0340.7440.12-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0357.6958.100.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0342.3143.88-0.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.040.0323.0822.08-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0318.5218.47-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.040.0364.2963.820.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0352.1749.960.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.040.0325.0025.07-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0366.6766.210.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0358.6258.690.010.01
DukeACC0.040.0378.5776.170.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0350.0049.130.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0337.5040.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0342.8645.36-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0331.8233.09-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0340.7440.78-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0344.0042.70-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0351.8551.810.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0337.9339.64-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0357.1457.270.010.00
SamfordSC0.040.0355.5656.300.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.37-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0359.2662.730.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0374.0773.870.020.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0376.0077.350.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0365.3866.650.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0388.8987.450.030.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.680.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.040.0326.0925.97-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0350.0050.080.000.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0319.2321.44-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.760.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0378.5778.520.020.02
MichiganB100.040.0364.2963.090.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0382.7681.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0344.0046.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0375.0077.120.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0359.2659.930.010.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0362.9661.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0351.8551.660.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0322.2222.75-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0330.7730.10-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0351.8551.270.000.00
WashingtonP120.040.0333.3332.52-0.01-0.01