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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


FIU

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:295.0
Current RPI:295
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:298
Current Record:11-18
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18295.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for FIU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Stetson (325.0)ASunH64-70L0%0.0
11-17Elon (205.0)CAAN95-87L0%0.0
11-18Milwaukee (231.0)HorzA66-51L0%0.0
11-27South Carolina (90.0)SECH61-78L0%0.0
12-2South Alabama (270.0)SBH87-58W100%0.0
12-11South Florida (278.0)AmerA53-65W100%0.0
12-13North Florida (218.0)ASunA87-85L0%0.0
12-16James Madison (272.0)CAAH67-76L0%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)ASunH91-88W100%0.0
12-22Hartford (198.0)AEH72-79L0%0.0
12-30Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH58-57W100%0.0
1-4Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAH66-71L0%0.0
1-6UAB (155.0)CUSAH64-75L0%0.0
1-11UTSA (187.0)CUSAA76-79W100%0.0
1-13UTEP (293.0)CUSAA72-68L0%0.0
1-18Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAH54-64L0%0.0
1-20Charlotte (323.0)CUSAH79-59W100%0.0
1-25Rice (328.0)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
1-27North Texas (235.0)CUSAA69-67L0%0.0
2-1Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAH76-70W100%0.0
2-3Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAH71-68W100%0.0
2-8Marshall (87.0)CUSAA76-66L0%0.0
2-10Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAA83-76L0%0.0
2-17Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAA77-72L0%0.0
2-22North Texas (235.0)CUSAH69-68W100%0.0
2-24Rice (328.0)CUSAH67-64W100%0.0
3-1Charlotte (323.0)CUSAA83-89W100%0.0
3-3Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA79-53L0%0.0
3-7Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAN68-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

FIU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


FIU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  FIU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FIUCUSA26.1826.1834.3534.35-8.19-8.19
Florida AtlanticCUSA4.254.2530.7730.77-1.63-1.63
Old DominionCUSA4.204.2076.6776.672.242.24
Southern MissCUSA4.164.1639.2939.29-0.89-0.89
CharlotteCUSA4.154.1519.2319.23-2.56-2.56
North TexasCUSA4.144.1442.8642.86-0.59-0.59
RiceCUSA4.114.1114.8114.81-2.89-2.89
UTSACUSA2.552.5555.1755.170.260.26
MarshallCUSA2.552.5568.7568.750.960.96
Western KentuckyCUSA2.552.5568.7568.750.960.96
UTEPCUSA2.532.5331.0331.03-0.96-0.96
Louisiana TechCUSA2.522.5250.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.522.5275.8675.861.301.30
UABCUSA2.502.5056.6756.670.330.33
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.991.9966.6766.670.660.66
James MadisonCAA1.931.9326.6726.67-0.90-0.90
South FloridaAmer1.911.9132.2632.26-0.68-0.68
StetsonASun1.891.8925.9325.93-0.91-0.91
North FloridaASun1.871.8734.4834.48-0.58-0.58
ElonCAA1.831.8337.9337.93-0.44-0.44
South AlabamaSB1.811.8141.3841.38-0.31-0.31
MilwaukeeHorz1.751.7546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
South CarolinaSEC1.751.7548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
LipscombASun0.230.2368.9768.970.090.09
JacksonvilleASun0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
NJITASun0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.200.2010.7110.71-0.16-0.16
William & MaryCAA0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Texas TechB120.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1777.4277.420.100.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
TroySB0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Texas St.SB0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
FloridaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
RichmondA100.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
TempleAmer0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Green BayHorz0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
OklahomaB120.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
UCFAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0632.3532.35-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02