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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


FIU

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:338.0
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:250
Current Record:5-24
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-14
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-24338.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for FIU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Stetson (328.0)ASunA82-67L0%0.0
11-18South Alabama (231.0)SBA69-64L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville (291.0)ASunN75-78L0%0.0
11-20Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzN78-73L0%0.0
11-27Binghamton (311.0)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-30Elon (161.0)CAAA84-81L0%0.0
12-4South Carolina (42.0)SECA70-54L0%0.0
12-11Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA82-63L0%0.0
12-15Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH68-75L0%0.0
12-17Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH53-60L0%0.0
12-21North Florida (217.0)ASunH78-54W100%0.0
12-31Marshall (112.0)CUSAH70-94L0%0.0
1-2Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH66-69L0%0.0
1-7Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
1-12UTEP (222.0)CUSAA88-87L0%0.0
1-14UTSA (264.0)CUSAA57-55L0%0.0
1-19Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH52-65L0%0.0
1-21UAB (201.0)CUSAH94-85W100%0.0
1-26Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH65-83L0%0.0
2-2Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA64-57L0%0.0
2-4Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA95-80L0%0.0
2-9Rice (167.0)CUSAH78-89L0%0.0
2-11North Texas (339.0)CUSAH90-71W100%0.0
2-16Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA69-66L0%0.0
2-18Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA77-61L0%0.0
2-23UTSA (264.0)CUSAH67-69L0%0.0
2-25UTEP (222.0)CUSAH76-90L0%0.0
3-2Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA70-67L0%0.0
3-4UAB (201.0)CUSAA56-68W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

FIU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


FIU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  FIU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FIUCUSA26.1026.1014.5014.50-18.53-18.53
Middle TennesseeCUSA4.234.2387.1087.103.143.14
Florida AtlanticCUSA4.164.1623.0823.08-2.24-2.24
UTEPCUSA4.154.1541.3841.38-0.72-0.72
UTSACUSA4.154.1534.4834.48-1.29-1.29
UABCUSA4.124.1253.3353.330.270.27
MarshallCUSA2.562.5654.5554.550.230.23
Louisiana TechCUSA2.542.5466.6766.670.850.85
Southern MissCUSA2.452.4521.4321.43-1.40-1.40
Western KentuckyCUSA2.452.4545.1645.16-0.24-0.24
RiceCUSA2.432.4363.3363.330.650.65
CharlotteCUSA2.422.4239.2939.29-0.52-0.52
Old DominionCUSA2.372.3760.0060.000.470.47
North TexasCUSA2.342.3422.2222.22-1.30-1.30
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.142.1475.8675.861.111.11
JacksonvilleASun1.981.9844.4444.44-0.22-0.22
North FloridaASun1.961.9637.9337.93-0.47-0.47
StetsonASun1.961.9625.0025.00-0.98-0.98
South AlabamaSB1.951.9537.9337.93-0.47-0.47
Georgia SouthernSB1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz1.781.7832.2632.26-0.63-0.63
ElonCAA1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
BinghamtonAE1.751.7532.1432.14-0.63-0.63
Northern IllinoisMAC1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
South CarolinaSEC1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
USC UpstateASun0.270.2746.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.260.2656.6756.670.040.04
NJITASun0.240.2431.0331.03-0.09-0.09
ToledoMAC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
TroySB0.200.2058.8258.820.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
FloridaSEC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
HofstraCAA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
HawaiiBW0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
VermontAE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
RadfordBSth0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01