live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


FIU

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:287.9
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:268
Current SOS:258
Current Record:6-11
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12200.00.01%
15-13217.60.05%
14-14230.50.80%
13-15243.93.36%
12-16258.69.69%
11-17273.621.06%
10-18288.126.72%
9-19302.022.48%
8-20314.512.33%
7-21324.83.10%
6-22331.70.39%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for FIU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Stetson (305.8)ASunH64-70L0%0.0
11-17Elon (143.4)CAAN95-87L0%0.0
11-18Milwaukee (242.2)HorzA66-51L0%0.0
11-27South Carolina (70.8)SECH61-78L0%0.0
12-2South Alabama (235.0)SBH87-58W100%0.0
12-11South Florida (296.6)AmerA53-65W100%0.0
12-13North Florida (241.9)ASunA87-85L0%0.0
12-16James Madison (278.3)CAAH67-76L0%0.0
12-19Florida Gulf Coast (149.6)ASunH91-88W100%0.0
12-22Hartford (253.5)AEH72-79L0%0.0
12-30Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAH58-57W100%0.0
1-4Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAH66-71L0%0.0
1-6UAB (126.6)CUSAH64-75L0%0.0
1-11UTSA (248.7)CUSAA76-79W100%0.0
1-13UTEP (283.4)CUSAA72-68L0%0.0
1-18Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAH54-64L0%0.0
1-20Charlotte (301.7)CUSAH79-59W100%0.0
1-25Rice (321.9)CUSAA0-048%-0.5
1-27North Texas (217.4)CUSAA0-027%-6.8
2-1Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAH0-057%2.1
2-3Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAH0-034%-4.7
2-8Marshall (101.3)CUSAA0-015%-11.3
2-10Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA0-06%-17.2
2-17Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAA0-039%-3.2
2-22North Texas (217.4)CUSAH0-049%-0.4
2-24Rice (321.9)CUSAH0-070%5.9
3-1Charlotte (301.7)CUSAA0-043%-2.0
3-3Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAA0-07%-16.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

FIU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


FIU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  FIU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FIUCUSA26.3626.1829.2133.03-10.96-8.88
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.594.3740.0038.24-0.72-1.03
CharlotteCUSA3.264.3125.0025.42-1.63-2.12
Old DominionCUSA3.194.2977.7875.341.772.17
North TexasCUSA0.334.2644.4445.51-0.04-0.38
RiceCUSA0.334.2611.1115.96-0.26-2.90
UTEPCUSA3.202.5629.4131.75-1.32-0.94
UTSACUSA3.192.5643.7541.12-0.40-0.46
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.272.5370.5973.811.351.21
MarshallCUSA0.332.5368.4262.930.120.65
Western KentuckyCUSA0.332.5368.4270.010.121.01
Southern MissCUSA0.412.5041.1838.31-0.07-0.58
Louisiana TechCUSA0.332.4752.6354.890.020.24
UABCUSA3.112.4758.8262.850.550.63
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.282.0461.1168.710.730.76
James MadisonCAA3.272.0021.0525.76-1.89-0.97
South FloridaAmer3.281.9836.8426.99-0.86-0.91
StetsonASun3.171.9729.4134.50-1.31-0.61
North FloridaASun2.941.9227.7832.74-1.31-0.66
ElonCAA3.161.9050.0049.340.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB3.021.8552.9447.510.18-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz3.021.8242.1145.18-0.48-0.18
South CarolinaSEC3.021.8258.8250.250.530.01
HartfordAE2.941.7947.3744.00-0.15-0.21
JacksonvilleASun0.230.2633.3333.77-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.250.2563.1665.970.060.08
William & MaryCAA0.300.2164.7159.990.090.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.240.1916.6724.91-0.16-0.10
LipscombASun0.240.1952.9459.340.010.04
NJITASun0.240.1938.8942.61-0.05-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.240.1911.1118.00-0.18-0.12
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.1950.0052.460.000.01
Texas TechB120.170.1978.9571.810.100.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1960.0062.030.030.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1866.6765.640.050.06
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1844.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.310.1533.3337.23-0.10-0.04
NebraskaB100.170.1366.6759.820.060.02
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1327.7831.11-0.07-0.05
TroySB0.160.1335.2942.76-0.05-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.1272.2258.920.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1222.2228.59-0.09-0.05
Texas St.SB0.170.1257.8950.210.030.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.250.1227.7838.14-0.11-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.1266.6765.520.030.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1245.0045.030.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.160.1252.6345.860.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.230.1242.1132.47-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.150.1273.6871.560.070.05
AuburnSEC0.160.1289.4777.000.130.07
DelawareCAA0.070.1247.3743.02-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1230.0030.99-0.06-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1231.5832.720.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.150.1257.8959.490.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.220.1263.1663.220.060.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.1222.2227.33-0.04-0.05
RichmondA100.230.1231.5834.36-0.09-0.04
TempleAmer0.160.1252.6351.740.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1041.1839.16-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1070.0068.300.040.04
Green BayHorz0.160.0925.0027.94-0.08-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0921.0523.51-0.04-0.05
OklahomaB120.090.0977.7867.910.050.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0983.3381.370.000.06
MaineAE0.160.0910.5314.83-0.12-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.080.0945.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0980.0078.850.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0958.8249.760.03-0.00
VCUA100.150.0960.0059.700.030.02
BelmontOVC0.160.0971.4374.660.070.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0966.6773.210.050.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0968.4269.250.030.04
UCFAmer0.160.0968.4260.860.060.02
Western MichiganMAC0.240.0952.9452.230.010.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0955.0053.320.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0965.0058.540.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0963.1657.890.020.01
SMUAmer0.070.0970.0070.570.030.04
MinnesotaB100.090.0763.6457.630.030.01
MichiganB100.080.0676.1970.740.040.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.080.0652.6351.690.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.0644.4450.31-0.020.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.0636.8432.76-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.0658.8261.450.020.01
High PointBSth0.090.0643.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0668.4254.090.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0627.7827.10-0.04-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.160.0677.7870.480.090.03
Illinois St.MVC0.160.0647.3746.09-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.080.0661.1153.170.020.00
MissouriSEC0.160.0666.6763.200.050.02
WoffordSC0.160.0668.7563.690.060.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.34-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.97-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0668.4254.070.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.370.030.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0636.8444.110.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1146.00-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.83-0.03-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.0640.0042.52-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0626.6729.040.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0628.5731.260.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3340.080.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.0683.3384.240.110.04
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0637.5045.24-0.04-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.067.1414.820.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0661.9065.160.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.0642.1146.09-0.03-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0663.1657.540.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.21-0.02-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.87-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0673.6865.260.000.02
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.150.0678.9577.380.090.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0668.4258.980.030.01
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.30-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.150.0657.8958.850.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.160.0636.8435.57-0.04-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.160.0610.5327.29-0.12-0.03
DaytonA100.080.0647.3750.94-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0638.8944.08-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0666.6755.940.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.7920.91-0.05-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0618.7536.82-0.05-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.410.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0672.2268.930.040.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
CampbellBSth0.080.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.080.0370.0058.090.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.640.000.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0321.0522.02-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.140.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.380.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.700.020.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0365.0057.880.030.01
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.48-0.03-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0310.0019.63-0.06-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.035.8819.35-0.08-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0385.0083.200.050.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0383.3381.430.050.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.21-0.03-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.037.6923.28-0.07-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0366.6766.020.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0316.6724.260.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.990.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.670.020.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0350.0053.260.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0372.2274.930.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.140.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.210.060.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.540.030.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.037.6920.09-0.07-0.02
IowaB100.080.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0361.1147.220.02-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.430.00-0.00
La SalleA100.080.0340.0042.69-0.02-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.890.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0322.2225.250.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.030.0010.67-0.08-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0370.5975.950.030.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.220.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.320.020.01
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.510.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.000.0363.1657.630.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0368.7567.600.030.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.280.040.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
Washington St.P120.080.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.24-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.910.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4446.000.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.240.060.01
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.970.040.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.690.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0327.7840.970.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.500.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.36-0.05-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.700.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0361.1156.830.020.00
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.060.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.710.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.63-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.29-0.06-0.02