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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:109.0
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:245
Current Record:22-8
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:145
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-8109.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bowling Green (225.0)MACH78-70W100%0.0
11-14Western Michigan (173.0)MACH77-60W100%0.0
11-19Chicago St. (318.0)WACH107-79W100%0.0
11-23Nevada (29.0)MWCN82-78L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (166.0)BWN66-79W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH92-64W100%0.0
12-3Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH78-68W100%0.0
12-10Robert Morris (237.0)NECA53-74W100%0.0
12-20Northeastern (136.0)CAAH59-61L0%0.0
12-21Michigan St. (51.0)B10A77-65L0%0.0
12-23Georgia (52.0)SECH86-79W100%0.0
12-29Wright St. (115.0)HorzH81-62W100%0.0
12-31Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH76-65W100%0.0
1-6Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA66-78W100%0.0
1-8Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA57-58W100%0.0
1-13Detroit (289.0)HorzH88-93L0%0.0
1-16Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH65-76L0%0.0
1-20Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA70-79W100%0.0
1-22Wright St. (115.0)HorzA88-67L0%0.0
1-27Green Bay (157.0)HorzH72-80L0%0.0
1-29Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH79-70W100%0.0
2-2Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA76-90W100%0.0
2-4Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA51-53W100%0.0
2-10Detroit (289.0)HorzA80-89W100%0.0
2-17Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH82-71W100%0.0
2-19Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH87-75W100%0.0
2-21Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH101-72W100%0.0
2-24Green Bay (157.0)HorzA72-85W100%0.0
2-26Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA75-86W100%0.0
3-4Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzN80-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.3926.3970.2770.2710.7010.70
Youngstown St.Horz6.026.0234.4834.48-1.87-1.87
MilwaukeeHorz4.474.4731.2531.25-1.68-1.68
Northern KentuckyHorz4.434.4373.3373.332.072.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.384.3844.8344.83-0.45-0.45
ValparaisoHorz4.354.3579.3179.312.552.55
Cleveland St.Horz4.354.3525.0025.00-2.17-2.17
Green BayHorz4.324.3255.5655.560.480.48
DetroitHorz4.324.3221.4321.43-2.47-2.47
Wright St.Horz4.304.3060.7160.710.920.92
Bowling GreenMAC1.811.8140.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Michigan St.B101.801.8056.2556.250.230.23
Chicago St.WAC1.771.7710.7110.71-1.39-1.39
Western MichiganMAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC1.741.7443.7543.75-0.22-0.22
Southern UtahBSky1.721.7213.3313.33-1.26-1.26
NortheasternCAA1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Oral RobertsSum1.691.6922.2222.22-0.94-0.94
GeorgiaSEC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
NevadaMWC1.671.6781.8281.821.061.06
UC DavisBW1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
ToledoMAC0.380.3850.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.220.2261.7661.760.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
KentuckySEC0.210.2185.2985.290.150.15
OhioMAC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
Murray St.OVC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
DePaulBE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
UMKCWAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Ohio St.B100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
MontanaBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00