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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:155.0
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:110
Current SOS:110
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16155.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa St. (9.0)B12A93-82L0%0.0
11-17Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA89-77L0%0.0
11-19Western Michigan (119.0)MACH71-82L0%0.0
11-24Western Carolina (220.0)SCH79-88L0%0.0
11-25Chicago St. (333.0)WACH70-57W100%0.0
11-26Georgia St. (53.0)SBH78-83L0%0.0
11-29Toledo (79.0)MACH81-79W100%0.0
12-6Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA68-70W100%0.0
12-14Michigan St. (23.0)B10A87-61L0%0.0
12-16Arizona (5.0)P12A101-64L0%0.0
12-20Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA81-77L0%0.0
12-22Clemson (106.0)ACCA70-60L0%0.0
12-27Maryland (13.0)B10A72-56L0%0.0
1-2Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH89-75W100%0.0
1-8Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA65-61L0%0.0
1-10Detroit (205.0)HorzA74-54L0%0.0
1-15Green Bay (54.0)HorzH69-66W100%0.0
1-22Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH66-53W100%0.0
1-26Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH59-56W100%0.0
1-28Wright St. (264.0)HorzH84-76W100%0.0
2-1Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA80-96W100%0.0
2-4Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA77-91W100%0.0
2-8Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA82-76L0%0.0
2-10Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA84-67L0%0.0
2-15Detroit (205.0)HorzH83-78W100%0.0
2-18Wright St. (264.0)HorzA67-76W100%0.0
2-22Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH81-56W100%0.0
2-25Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH82-71W100%0.0
2-28Green Bay (54.0)HorzA83-63L0%0.0
3-6Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzN69-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.3726.3748.3348.33-0.88-0.88
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.905.9024.1424.14-3.05-3.05
Green BayHorz4.414.4175.0075.002.202.20
DetroitHorz4.314.3141.3841.38-0.74-0.74
Cleveland St.Horz4.304.3053.5753.570.310.31
ValparaisoHorz4.284.2885.7185.713.063.06
Wright St.Horz4.274.2733.3333.33-1.42-1.42
Youngstown St.Horz4.254.2529.6329.63-1.73-1.73
MilwaukeeHorz4.164.1642.3142.31-0.64-0.64
ToledoMAC1.941.9462.5062.500.490.49
Eastern MichiganMAC1.881.8855.1755.170.190.19
Georgia St.SB1.861.8670.9770.970.780.78
Chicago St.WAC1.801.8017.8617.86-1.16-1.16
Western CarolinaSC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Western MichiganMAC1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
Michigan St.B101.771.7766.6766.670.590.59
MarylandB101.771.7781.2581.251.101.10
Morehead St.OVC1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B121.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
PittsburghACC1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
ClemsonACC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP121.671.6790.9190.911.361.36
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.3066.6766.670.100.10
Central MichiganMAC0.240.2471.4371.430.100.10
Kent St.MAC0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.220.2220.6920.69-0.13-0.13
UMKCWAC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
MichiganB100.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
DePaulBE0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.160.1658.8258.820.030.03
Ohio St.B100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Arizona St.P120.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
IndianaB100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
VirginiaACC0.130.1390.6290.620.110.11
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
Florida St.ACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
UCFAmer0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
RutgersB100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00