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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:197.0
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:69
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12106.00.01%
16-13113.50.26%
15-14130.12.25%
14-15149.28.69%
13-16170.217.82%
12-17191.225.79%
11-18211.323.64%
10-19230.314.55%
9-20249.15.52%
8-21268.11.29%
7-22281.00.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa St. (27.6)B12A93-82L0%0.0
11-17Eastern Michigan (166.3)MACA89-77L0%0.0
11-19Western Michigan (129.4)MACH71-82L0%0.0
11-24Western Carolina (251.6)SCH79-88L0%0.0
11-25Chicago St. (339.4)WACH70-57W100%0.0
11-26Georgia St. (84.3)SBH78-83L0%0.0
11-29Toledo (89.1)MACH81-79W100%0.0
12-6Morehead St. (219.1)OVCA68-70W100%0.0
12-14Michigan St. (41.2)B10A87-61L0%0.0
12-16Arizona (5.9)P12A101-64L0%0.0
12-20Pittsburgh (95.8)ACCA81-77L0%0.0
12-22Clemson (127.3)ACCA70-60L0%0.0
12-27Maryland (22.4)B10A72-56L0%0.0
1-2Valparaiso (81.2)HorzH89-75W100%0.0
1-8Cleveland St. (126.8)HorzA65-61L0%0.0
1-10Detroit (174.2)HorzA74-54L0%0.0
1-15Green Bay (54.5)HorzH69-66W100%0.0
1-22Milwaukee (277.9)HorzH66-53W100%0.0
1-26Cleveland St. (126.8)HorzH0-046%-1.2
1-28Wright St. (192.2)HorzH0-068%5.1
2-1Youngstown St. (273.1)HorzA0-053%0.7
2-4Illinois Chicago (314.6)HorzA0-064%4.0
2-8Valparaiso (81.2)HorzA0-014%-11.8
2-10Milwaukee (277.9)HorzA0-053%0.9
2-15Detroit (174.2)HorzH0-055%1.5
2-18Wright St. (192.2)HorzA0-044%-1.7
2-22Illinois Chicago (314.6)HorzH0-083%10.7
2-25Youngstown St. (273.1)HorzH0-075%7.5
2-28Green Bay (54.5)HorzA0-013%-12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.3526.3531.4340.71-9.79-4.90
Green BayHorz3.294.4283.3380.602.202.70
Cleveland St.Horz3.074.3650.0053.910.000.34
DetroitHorz3.074.3338.8943.93-0.68-0.53
Youngstown St.Horz0.464.3335.0034.06-0.14-1.38
Wright St.Horz0.444.3344.4444.59-0.05-0.47
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.294.3015.7918.06-0.20-2.75
MilwaukeeHorz3.004.3029.4130.43-1.23-1.68
ValparaisoHorz2.924.3083.3380.871.952.65
ToledoMAC3.082.0061.1161.430.690.46
Georgia St.SB3.151.9461.1165.190.700.59
Eastern MichiganMAC2.851.9350.0051.500.000.06
Western CarolinaSC2.931.9033.3339.35-0.98-0.41
Chicago St.WAC3.071.875.8812.01-2.71-1.42
Western MichiganMAC2.851.8462.5055.390.710.20
Michigan St.B103.011.8163.1662.790.790.46
MarylandB102.991.8184.2176.792.050.97
Morehead St.OVC2.851.7936.8445.52-0.75-0.16
Iowa St.B122.921.7876.4767.031.550.61
PittsburghACC2.851.7564.7153.660.840.13
ClemsonACC2.851.7555.5647.040.32-0.10
ArizonaP122.781.7289.4786.752.191.27
Bowling GreenMAC0.390.3075.0071.030.190.13
Central MichiganMAC0.170.2478.5774.650.090.12
Ball St.MAC0.250.2437.5037.47-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.170.2472.2264.420.070.07
UMKCWAC0.230.2131.5838.42-0.09-0.05
MichiganB100.240.2057.8950.370.040.00
Miami OHMAC0.170.1833.3329.95-0.06-0.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1861.1161.640.000.04
DrakeMVC0.310.1816.6718.13-0.20-0.12
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.1843.7538.83-0.01-0.04
WisconsinB100.150.1890.0087.110.120.13
Arizona St.P120.290.1750.0052.250.000.01
NorthwesternB100.150.1752.6343.260.01-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1516.6722.12-0.11-0.09
DePaulBE0.150.1552.3843.130.01-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.290.1558.8258.890.050.03
AkronMAC0.240.1566.6762.710.080.04
Ohio St.B100.070.1575.0076.160.030.08
Oklahoma St.B120.220.1566.6758.710.070.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1490.0082.690.120.09
LouisvilleACC0.150.1483.3376.670.100.08
VirginiaACC0.220.14100.0094.460.220.13
OregonP120.220.1468.4259.850.080.03
IndianaB100.220.1478.9568.920.130.05
EvansvilleMVC0.070.1273.6869.120.030.05
South DakotaSum0.080.1245.0047.79-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.1235.2934.93-0.07-0.04
OhioMAC0.070.1241.1838.69-0.01-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.1252.9458.930.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1247.3750.43-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1247.3749.58-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.1266.6765.570.030.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1238.8943.45-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.230.1278.9572.060.130.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1233.3335.68-0.05-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.220.1247.0654.29-0.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1235.0031.73-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.1247.0641.71-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.1231.2527.90-0.03-0.05
Miami FLACC0.070.1273.6870.620.030.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1250.0054.950.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.1223.5329.50-0.04-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.150.1150.0044.230.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.220.1160.0047.800.04-0.00
DukeACC0.220.1188.8982.600.170.07
RutgersB100.140.1147.6237.42-0.01-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0921.0526.14-0.05-0.04
DaytonA100.090.0984.2179.070.060.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0956.2555.420.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.140.0978.9580.740.080.06
AuburnSEC0.150.0950.0040.150.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.150.0938.1040.99-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0940.0037.49-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.0925.0032.65-0.07-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0961.1166.550.030.03
MissouriSEC0.140.0933.3330.04-0.05-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.140.0952.9457.380.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0961.1162.930.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0935.2938.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0957.8956.220.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.140.0916.6723.15-0.10-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.150.0966.6767.030.050.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0958.8257.870.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0961.1158.450.020.01
SamfordSC0.150.0936.3636.13-0.04-0.02
The CitadelSC0.140.0929.4131.59-0.06-0.03
VCUA100.150.0984.2180.710.100.05
VMISC0.070.0931.5837.61-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.140.0960.0056.670.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0944.4443.20-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0950.0045.560.00-0.01
KansasB120.150.0984.2175.960.100.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0965.0061.690.020.02
IowaB100.150.0865.0063.320.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0847.0640.34-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0870.0058.840.030.01
IllinoisB100.070.0861.9060.570.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0863.1651.440.020.00
Penn St.B100.070.0865.0051.740.020.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0626.3236.33-0.04-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3331.69-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0635.2931.61-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0643.7540.74-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0629.4131.61-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0661.1161.280.000.01
IPFWSum0.070.0635.2937.84-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0657.1458.270.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0025.62-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.070.065.268.87-0.07-0.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0650.0053.230.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0665.0062.970.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0062.000.000.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0652.6349.040.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0647.0649.64-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0672.2263.510.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0627.7828.15-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0630.0031.23-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0663.1662.110.020.01
FurmanSC0.070.0623.5328.67-0.04-0.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0670.0074.650.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0652.3857.180.000.01
MercerSC0.070.0647.3751.60-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0668.7568.430.030.02
San DiegoWCC0.160.0645.0045.94-0.02-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0640.0041.96-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0617.6526.23-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0678.9577.540.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0633.3332.50-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.065.5610.98-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0642.1145.74-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0688.8987.630.060.04
WoffordSC0.070.0673.6873.960.030.03
YaleIvy0.000.0664.7164.100.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.0666.6760.550.050.01
UNLVMWC0.140.0652.6354.310.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0644.4441.09-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0677.7871.550.040.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0671.4369.400.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0650.0051.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0663.1664.380.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0652.9453.130.010.00
TCUB120.000.0673.6861.590.000.01
TexasB120.000.0673.6868.840.000.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0643.7545.87-0.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.080.0655.0041.160.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0631.2531.36-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0661.1159.630.020.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0684.2174.830.050.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0652.9455.350.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0680.0075.860.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0644.4434.61-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0645.0040.42-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.140.0643.7548.25-0.02-0.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0655.0045.750.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0652.6351.170.000.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0672.2262.220.030.01
PurdueB100.070.0660.0056.940.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.150.0673.6875.840.070.03
StanfordP120.070.0673.6869.340.030.02
UtahP120.070.0682.3583.030.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.035.5616.72-0.08-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0333.3334.70-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0345.0039.23-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0338.8940.90-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0370.5967.460.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0320.0029.52-0.05-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0357.8959.420.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0327.7828.23-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.030.003.89-0.07-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0372.2272.450.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0342.1151.89-0.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0373.6872.630.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0344.4434.89-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0350.0053.010.000.00
PacificWCC0.080.0338.8934.81-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0317.6518.13-0.04-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.030.002.08-0.08-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0338.8940.51-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0347.3749.76-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0337.5045.85-0.02-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0355.5654.000.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0389.4783.130.060.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.40-0.07-0.03
High PointBSth0.070.0370.5968.470.030.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0340.0038.39-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0378.9569.100.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0310.5315.25-0.06-0.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0325.0026.14-0.04-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9579.430.040.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0333.3345.67-0.03-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0325.0022.97-0.04-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0049.170.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.070.0350.0051.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0325.0028.11-0.03-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0314.2915.43-0.05-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0329.4127.40-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0325.0024.65-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0395.0094.580.060.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0363.1657.340.020.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0341.1842.95-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0344.4444.98-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0352.6346.670.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0323.0839.11-0.04-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0355.0055.870.010.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0347.3749.78-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0331.5832.84-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0316.6723.70-0.05-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0370.5977.580.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.26-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0361.9062.350.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0347.3741.09-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0364.7156.740.020.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0342.1156.86-0.010.00
UCLAP120.000.0355.0052.130.000.00
USCP120.000.0347.3739.90-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0363.1668.460.020.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0327.7832.08-0.03-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0377.7865.930.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3738.18-0.00-0.01