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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:246.3
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:126
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:256
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12105.00.02%
16-13110.10.09%
15-14126.30.18%
14-15149.10.96%
13-16166.62.45%
12-17184.55.54%
11-18203.910.08%
10-19223.114.22%
9-20240.918.75%
8-21259.618.03%
7-22277.113.88%
6-23292.48.61%
5-24306.14.51%
4-25316.82.03%
3-26327.70.56%
2-27334.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa St. (40.2)B12A93-82L0%0.0
11-17Eastern Michigan (157.0)MACA89-77L0%0.0
11-19Western Michigan (119.8)MACH71-82L0%0.0
11-24Western Carolina (177.3)SCH79-88L0%0.0
11-25Chicago St. (302.4)WACH0-081%10.6
11-26Georgia St. (102.3)SBH0-040%-3.0
11-29Toledo (67.7)MACH0-031%-6.0
12-6Morehead St. (165.2)OVCA0-026%-7.8
12-14Michigan St. (29.3)B10A0-03%-22.2
12-16Arizona (17.9)P12A0-04%-21.6
12-20Pittsburgh (105.2)ACCA0-013%-13.8
12-22Clemson (118.2)ACCA0-012%-13.9
12-27Maryland (59.5)B10A0-07%-17.4
1-2Valparaiso (177.8)HorzH0-049%-0.2
1-8Cleveland St. (167.3)HorzA0-026%-7.6
1-10Detroit (131.1)HorzA0-021%-9.8
1-15Green Bay (99.6)HorzH0-032%-5.7
1-22Milwaukee (262.7)HorzH0-064%4.2
1-26Cleveland St. (167.3)HorzH0-048%-0.5
1-28Wright St. (131.9)HorzH0-045%-1.6
2-1Youngstown St. (260.4)HorzA0-042%-2.5
2-4Illinois Chicago (272.2)HorzA0-043%-2.2
2-8Valparaiso (177.8)HorzA0-027%-7.4
2-10Milwaukee (262.7)HorzA0-040%-3.0
2-15Detroit (131.1)HorzH0-041%-2.6
2-18Wright St. (131.9)HorzA0-023%-8.7
2-22Illinois Chicago (272.2)HorzH0-066%5.0
2-25Youngstown St. (260.4)HorzH0-065%4.7
2-28Green Bay (99.6)HorzA0-014%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz32.8126.390.0029.52-32.81-10.81
Green BayHorz0.004.4250.0067.610.001.56
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.3833.3344.78-0.00-0.46
Youngstown St.Horz1.564.3540.0037.73-0.31-1.07
Wright St.Horz0.004.3566.6756.680.000.58
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.3320.0033.73-0.00-1.41
DetroitHorz0.004.3250.0053.780.000.33
ValparaisoHorz0.004.3275.0054.990.000.43
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.3225.0034.53-0.00-1.34
Georgia St.SB2.081.9533.3363.31-0.690.52
ToledoMAC0.001.9450.0065.240.000.59
Eastern MichiganMAC12.501.94100.0048.8912.50-0.04
Western CarolinaSC12.501.900.0053.02-12.500.12
Chicago St.WAC0.001.880.0022.71-0.00-1.03
Western MichiganMAC12.501.8550.0051.350.000.05
Michigan St.B100.001.8175.0072.460.000.81
Morehead St.OVC0.001.7920.0052.95-0.000.11
MarylandB100.001.78100.0065.780.000.56
ClemsonACC0.001.7560.0050.470.000.02
Iowa St.B1212.501.75100.0066.2212.500.57
PittsburghACC0.001.7566.6750.280.000.01
ArizonaP120.001.72100.0074.190.000.83
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.31100.0058.710.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.2533.3346.31-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.25100.0053.170.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.2475.0066.130.000.08
UMKCWAC0.000.2225.0046.39-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.21100.0070.020.000.08
DrakeMVC2.080.190.0025.30-2.08-0.10
WisconsinB100.000.19100.0084.620.000.13
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.19100.0043.380.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1966.6732.480.00-0.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1875.0071.990.000.08
NorthwesternB100.000.18100.0041.460.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1875.0056.870.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.1675.0069.590.000.06
DePaulBE0.000.15100.0036.280.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC1.560.150.0028.12-1.56-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.15100.0055.770.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1566.6757.950.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.15100.0073.810.000.07
OregonP120.000.1575.0068.720.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.1580.0072.950.000.07
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0081.370.000.09
IndianaB100.000.1580.0057.960.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0074.230.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.13100.0078.600.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1366.6759.480.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1366.6750.930.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.1350.0055.630.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.130.0036.85-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0032.95-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0074.590.000.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.120.0039.88-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.12100.0060.950.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1250.0050.880.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.12100.0047.530.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3339.78-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0042.83-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.120.0039.32-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.120.0033.20-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1233.3333.50-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.12100.0085.500.000.08
Florida St.ACC0.000.1225.0042.98-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1266.6735.400.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0075.310.000.05
LongwoodBSth1.560.0925.0020.27-0.78-0.06
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0950.0034.020.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0975.0072.970.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0920.0029.26-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0950.0055.640.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0043.080.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0933.3368.63-0.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6749.970.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0966.6753.640.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0940.0050.60-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0037.06-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.090.0039.25-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0940.0039.62-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0032.210.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0026.64-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0940.0038.53-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.880.000.03
IowaB100.000.0960.0064.030.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6762.260.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0065.950.000.03
VCUA100.000.0975.0067.590.000.03
VMISC0.000.0933.3337.04-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0051.910.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6752.810.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0060.870.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0980.0043.930.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0040.87-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.070.0031.81-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.67-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.87-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3334.36-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.570.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.70-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.020.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6760.760.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.460.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.71-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0616.6730.01-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.230.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0066.65-0.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3348.25-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.040.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.61-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6751.260.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0031.710.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.110.000.04
AlabamaSEC4.170.0675.0058.192.080.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.100.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3322.95-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0068.180.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.88-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6756.740.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.97-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.930.000.03
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0675.0057.780.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0633.3352.75-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6758.810.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.840.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0034.21-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.360.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.43-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.170.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.180.000.00
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.280.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.420.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.960.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.580.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0070.800.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0675.0062.270.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.01-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0045.520.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0026.270.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.790.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.390.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0044.74-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0056.390.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.48-0.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.46-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3332.25-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC2.080.0375.0050.401.040.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0029.05-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.390.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.130.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.410.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.26-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0043.71-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0058.760.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0074.040.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.000.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0360.0050.930.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0064.010.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0052.27-0.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC2.080.03100.0047.402.08-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.93-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0033.06-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.20-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.70-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.540.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3340.57-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.51-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.410.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.56-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.83-0.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.700.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0340.0028.54-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.270.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.070.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3328.67-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0320.0035.82-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0031.34-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.710.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0024.54-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.840.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.290.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0054.950.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.16-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.28-0.00-0.00