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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:89.5
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:308
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-132.90.08%
27-238.71.07%
26-348.34.64%
25-458.911.16%
24-570.218.20%
23-683.722.12%
22-798.118.55%
21-8113.912.78%
20-9130.76.74%
19-10150.13.10%
18-11166.91.20%
17-12191.70.32%
16-13202.50.02%
15-14236.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bowling Green (217.3)MACH78-70W100%0.0
11-14Western Michigan (212.4)MACH77-60W100%0.0
11-19Chicago St. (292.4)WACH107-79W100%0.0
11-23Nevada (46.6)MWCN82-78L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (236.9)BWN66-79W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (305.9)SumH92-64W100%0.0
12-3Southern Utah (331.3)BSkyH0-097%22.9
12-10Robert Morris (246.0)NECA0-083%11.3
12-20Northeastern (167.3)CAAH0-084%11.9
12-21Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-022%-9.4
12-23Georgia (65.1)SECH0-055%1.4
12-29Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-083%11.4
12-31Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH0-085%12.3
1-6Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-046%-1.2
1-8Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzA0-072%7.0
1-13Detroit (301.2)HorzH0-096%20.9
1-16Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzH0-093%17.8
1-20Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzA0-069%6.1
1-22Wright St. (152.2)HorzA0-067%5.2
1-27Green Bay (161.8)HorzH0-083%11.3
1-29Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-093%17.8
2-2Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzA0-081%10.7
2-4Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzA0-083%11.7
2-10Detroit (301.2)HorzA0-089%14.7
2-17Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-066%5.0
2-19Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzH0-086%13.1
2-21Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH0-092%16.9
2-24Green Bay (161.8)HorzA0-066%5.1
2-26Milwaukee (251.6)HorzA0-083%11.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz29.2426.3877.2778.0815.9514.82
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4685.7176.600.002.37
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.4542.8639.40-0.00-0.94
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.044.4250.0052.470.000.22
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.4216.6731.64-0.00-1.62
DetroitHorz0.004.420.0020.39-0.00-2.62
Green BayHorz0.694.4233.3350.43-0.230.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4033.3334.68-0.00-1.35
Northern KentuckyHorz0.004.3950.0054.300.000.38
Wright St.Horz0.004.3971.4358.020.000.70
Bowling GreenMAC8.331.8740.0045.15-1.67-0.18
Michigan St.B100.001.8450.0061.040.000.41
Chicago St.WAC8.331.840.0017.96-8.33-1.18
Western MichiganMAC8.331.8120.0037.75-5.00-0.44
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7825.0040.01-0.00-0.36
Southern UtahBSky0.001.780.0023.99-0.00-0.93
NortheasternCAA0.001.7557.1449.350.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum8.331.750.0020.01-8.33-1.05
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7266.6754.690.000.16
NevadaMWC8.331.7271.4369.493.570.67
UC DavisBW8.331.7266.6750.132.780.00
ToledoMAC0.000.3542.8650.36-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2466.6756.360.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.2350.0051.820.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.2380.0068.320.000.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.690.2166.6754.420.230.02
Murray St.OVC0.690.2142.8661.90-0.100.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.2150.0033.010.00-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.2050.0052.330.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.20100.0086.250.000.15
DePaulBE0.000.1880.0035.960.00-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.1883.3369.840.000.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1840.0061.37-0.000.04
UMKCWAC0.690.1571.4356.050.300.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.150.0022.69-0.00-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.600.1514.2928.15-0.43-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1550.0055.850.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.1557.1442.660.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.1450.0054.690.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.520.1440.0050.91-0.100.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0059.670.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1250.0056.260.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1220.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1266.6770.930.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1275.0064.960.000.04
WisconsinB101.040.1275.0073.840.520.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1214.2937.52-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3335.92-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1233.3341.52-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1250.0043.490.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1266.6751.460.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.1233.3353.29-0.000.01
MontanaBSky0.690.1214.2947.44-0.50-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1240.0040.65-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.700.000.07
ElonCAA0.000.1283.3358.030.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.480.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1285.7172.660.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1271.4374.450.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6756.020.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1140.0037.44-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0054.490.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0960.0058.950.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0950.0038.430.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0928.5747.72-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0061.810.000.02
South DakotaSum0.690.0957.1447.220.10-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0916.6730.02-0.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0940.0050.88-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.090.0021.30-0.60-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0937.5034.65-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0985.7155.890.000.01
PacificWCC0.520.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0962.5043.960.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0033.44-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.090.0028.15-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.600.0937.5036.24-0.15-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.690.0983.3377.170.460.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.0950.0042.710.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.690.0950.0058.980.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0971.4349.590.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0883.3357.990.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
MississippiSEC0.690.0671.4346.010.30-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.600.0620.0054.94-0.360.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.690.06100.0074.460.690.03
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.520.0633.3345.60-0.17-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0683.3355.200.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
IonaMAAC1.040.0660.0070.140.210.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0616.6729.36-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
Notre DameACC1.040.03100.0075.011.040.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
TulsaAmer0.690.0360.0039.200.14-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.690.0314.2929.15-0.50-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.600.030.0021.30-0.60-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.600.0383.3370.360.400.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.690.0325.0043.26-0.35-0.00
VillanovaBE0.690.03100.0083.120.690.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0038.72-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.690.0316.6737.09-0.46-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.520.0328.5723.76-0.22-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.520.03100.0089.040.520.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00