Oakland

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	182.0
Current RPI:	182
Expected SOS:	261
Current SOS:	261
Current Record:	19-14
Expected Record:	19-14
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-6
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	70
Expected OOC SOS:	97

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-14	182.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	85-71	W	100%
11-13	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	87-68	W	100%
11-18	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	87-74	L	0%
11-20	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	74-50	L	0%
11-24	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	102-59	L	0%
11-27	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	86-93	W	100%
11-30	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	97-87	W	100%
12-2	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	73-78	W	100%
12-6	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	A	95-89	L	0%
12-9	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	82-50	W	100%
12-16	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	N	73-86	L	0%
12-20	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	97-86	W	100%
12-22	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	86-81	W	100%
12-28	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	68-76	W	100%
12-30	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	80-79	L	0%
1-5	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	83-87	L	0%
1-7	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	81-86	L	0%
1-10	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	95-82	W	100%
1-12	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	81-68	W	100%
1-15	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	68-78	W	100%
1-20	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	86-92	W	100%
1-26	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	70-83	W	100%
1-28	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	64-51	L	0%
2-2	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	73-79	L	0%
2-4	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	82-74	W	100%
2-9	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	87-78	W	100%
2-14	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	75-73	L	0%
2-16	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	66-82	W	100%
2-19	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	74-67	L	0%
2-22	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	90-96	L	0%
2-24	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	72-70	W	100%
3-4	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	N	62-55	W	100%
3-5	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	N	43-44	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oakland	Horz	26.52	26.52	58.39	58.39	4.45	4.45
Cleveland St.	Horz	5.63	5.63	32.26	32.26	-2.00	-2.00
IUPUI	Horz	5.38	5.38	32.00	32.00	-1.94	-1.94
Wright St.	Horz	4.12	4.12	70.00	70.00	1.65	1.65
Milwaukee	Horz	4.05	4.05	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Detroit	Horz	4.05	4.05	21.43	21.43	-2.32	-2.32
Green Bay	Horz	4.02	4.02	28.57	28.57	-1.72	-1.72
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.00	4.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	3.99	3.99	17.86	17.86	-2.57	-2.57
Northern Kentucky	Horz	3.99	3.99	70.37	70.37	1.63	1.63
Eastern Michigan	MAC	3.17	3.17	59.26	59.26	0.59	0.59
Toledo	MAC	1.95	1.95	65.62	65.62	0.61	0.61
Western Michigan	MAC	1.86	1.86	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.67	1.67	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	ACC	1.63	1.63	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Kansas	B12	1.58	1.58	78.79	78.79	0.91	0.91
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.58	1.58	45.45	45.45	-0.14	-0.14
Michigan St.	B10	1.58	1.58	87.50	87.50	1.19	1.19
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.57	1.57	29.63	29.63	-0.64	-0.64
Chicago St.	WAC	1.54	1.54	3.45	3.45	-1.43	-1.43
New Orleans	Slnd	1.52	1.52	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
Towson	CAA	1.52	1.52	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.38	0.38	36.67	36.67	-0.10	-0.10
Akron	MAC	0.29	0.29	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.28	0.28	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.28	0.28	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.27	0.27	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Indiana	B10	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.16	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.10	0.10
Denver	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	82.76	82.76	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.04	0.04	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	12.50	12.50	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.04	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00