Oakland

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	139.0
Current RPI:	139
Expected SOS:	139
Current SOS:	139
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-3
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	116
Expected OOC SOS:	49

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	139.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Alabama (36.0)	SEC	A	74-57	L	0%
11-16	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	A	91-68	L	0%
11-19	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	A	45-75	W	100%
11-22	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	74-76	W	100%
11-25	Utah Valley (230.0)	GWC	H	89-83	W	100%
11-28	Tennessee (86.0)	SEC	H	89-81	W	100%
12-1	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	H	101-83	W	100%
12-3	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	H	86-73	W	100%
12-7	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	H	82-84	L	0%
12-10	Michigan (14.0)	B10	N	90-80	L	0%
12-17	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	A	80-82	W	100%
12-20	Arizona (79.0)	P12	A	85-73	L	0%
12-23	Western Michigan (205.0)	MAC	H	76-91	L	0%
12-28	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	A	96-69	L	0%
12-30	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	A	76-64	L	0%
1-3	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	H	80-89	L	0%
1-5	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	H	61-71	L	0%
1-7	IUPUI (211.0)	Sum	H	93-81	W	100%
1-14	IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)	Sum	A	86-96	W	100%
1-19	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	A	63-72	W	100%
1-21	Oral Roberts (51.0)	Sum	A	93-86	L	0%
1-26	South Dakota St. (42.0)	Sum	H	92-87	W	100%
1-28	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	H	75-78	L	0%
2-1	IUPUI (211.0)	Sum	A	79-75	L	0%
2-4	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	A	70-74	W	100%
2-11	IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)	Sum	H	93-82	W	100%
2-15	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	H	76-68	W	100%
2-18	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	79-75	L	0%
2-23	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	A	56-89	W	100%
2-25	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	A	77-84	W	100%
3-4	Southern Utah (232.0)	Sum	N	82-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oakland	Sum	26.46	26.46	53.69	53.69	1.95	1.95
Southern Utah	Sum	5.79	5.79	42.31	42.31	-0.89	-0.89
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.41	4.41	80.00	80.00	2.64	2.64
Western Illinois	Sum	4.36	4.36	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	4.31	4.31	80.65	80.65	2.64	2.64
IUPUI	Sum	4.26	4.26	39.29	39.29	-0.91	-0.91
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.26	4.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.24	4.24	32.00	32.00	-1.53	-1.53
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.21	4.21	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
South Dakota	Sum	4.16	4.16	30.43	30.43	-1.63	-1.63
Arkansas	SEC	1.80	1.80	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Utah Valley	GWC	1.75	1.75	59.26	59.26	0.32	0.32
Valparaiso	Horz	1.75	1.75	66.67	66.67	0.58	0.58
Western Michigan	MAC	1.75	1.75	37.50	37.50	-0.44	-0.44
Houston	CUSA	1.70	1.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	1.70	1.70	70.97	70.97	0.71	0.71
Grambling	SWAC	1.69	1.69	14.81	14.81	-1.19	-1.19
Alabama	SEC	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Tennessee	SEC	1.66	1.66	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Arizona	P12	1.64	1.64	66.67	66.67	0.55	0.55
Ohio	MAC	1.64	1.64	78.12	78.12	0.92	0.92
Illinois St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	59.38	59.38	0.30	0.30
North Dakota	GWC	0.39	0.39	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.23	0.23	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.18	0.18	16.67	16.67	-0.12	-0.12
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Troy	SB	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.15	0.15	13.79	13.79	-0.11	-0.11
Florida	SEC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.15	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	34.62	34.62	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	19.23	19.23	-0.07	-0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	94.12	94.12	0.09	0.09
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	78.57	78.57	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	11.11	11.11	-0.06	-0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	18.75	18.75	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01