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Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:130.8
Current RPI:133
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:105
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:11-5
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:5.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15130.8100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iowa St. (15.4)B12A93-82L0%0.0
11-17Eastern Michigan (164.2)MACA89-77L0%0.0
11-19Western Michigan (116.9)MACH71-82L0%0.0
11-24Western Carolina (237.6)SCH79-88L0%0.0
11-25Chicago St. (332.3)WACH70-57W100%0.0
11-26Georgia St. (74.2)SBH78-83L0%0.0
11-29Toledo (74.8)MACH81-79W100%0.0
12-6Morehead St. (219.6)OVCA68-70W100%0.0
12-14Michigan St. (31.5)B10A87-61L0%0.0
12-16Arizona (6.2)P12A101-64L0%0.0
12-20Pittsburgh (56.9)ACCA81-77L0%0.0
12-22Clemson (92.7)ACCA70-60L0%0.0
12-27Maryland (10.2)B10A72-56L0%0.0
1-2Valparaiso (64.6)HorzH89-75W100%0.0
1-8Cleveland St. (126.5)HorzA65-61L0%0.0
1-10Detroit (199.2)HorzA74-54L0%0.0
1-15Green Bay (60.7)HorzH69-66W100%0.0
1-22Milwaukee (208.6)HorzH66-53W100%0.0
1-26Cleveland St. (126.5)HorzH59-56W100%0.0
1-28Wright St. (263.1)HorzH84-76W100%0.0
2-1Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzA80-96W100%0.0
2-4Illinois Chicago (305.3)HorzA77-91W100%0.0
2-8Valparaiso (64.6)HorzA82-76L0%0.0
2-10Milwaukee (208.6)HorzA84-67L0%0.0
2-15Detroit (199.2)HorzH83-78W100%0.0
2-18Wright St. (263.1)HorzA67-76W100%0.0
2-22Illinois Chicago (305.3)HorzH81-56W100%0.0
2-25Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzH82-71W100%0.0
2-28Green Bay (60.7)HorzA83-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.3526.3450.4350.430.230.23
Green BayHorz4.414.4076.9276.922.372.37
DetroitHorz4.384.3842.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Youngstown St.Horz4.384.3829.6329.63-1.78-1.78
Wright St.Horz4.384.3833.3333.33-1.46-1.46
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.354.3525.0025.00-2.18-2.18
Cleveland St.Horz4.314.3153.8553.850.330.33
MilwaukeeHorz4.294.2942.3142.31-0.66-0.66
ValparaisoHorz4.294.2984.6284.622.972.97
ToledoMAC1.972.0065.5265.100.610.60
Georgia St.SB1.941.9466.6767.170.650.67
Eastern MichiganMAC1.901.9352.0051.810.080.07
Chicago St.WAC1.881.8719.2318.57-1.15-1.18
Western MichiganMAC1.851.8455.5655.140.210.19
Western CarolinaSC1.851.8440.7440.74-0.34-0.34
Michigan St.B101.811.8164.2964.280.520.52
MarylandB101.811.8182.7682.201.191.16
Morehead St.OVC1.791.7946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Iowa St.B121.781.7871.4371.050.760.75
PittsburghACC1.751.7560.7160.110.380.35
ClemsonACC1.751.7553.5752.100.130.07
ArizonaP121.721.7289.2989.611.351.37
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.3070.3768.760.120.11
Ball St.MAC0.250.2422.2223.22-0.14-0.13
Central MichiganMAC0.210.2476.0075.230.110.12
Kent St.MAC0.240.2365.5265.390.070.07
UMKCWAC0.210.2139.2940.08-0.05-0.04
MichiganB100.210.2046.4347.81-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.190.1841.3841.54-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1844.4444.64-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.180.1889.6687.990.140.14
BelmontOVC0.180.1864.2964.290.050.05
Arizona St.P120.180.1751.7252.550.010.01
NorthwesternB100.180.1750.0048.760.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1551.8551.850.010.01
DePaulBE0.150.1540.0039.59-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.150.1558.6257.940.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1559.2658.600.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.150.1579.3177.770.090.08
VirginiaACC0.150.1596.5595.280.140.13
Ohio St.B100.150.1472.4172.030.070.06
Notre DameACC0.120.1482.7681.290.080.09
OregonP120.150.1472.4171.810.070.06
IndianaB100.120.1463.3362.760.030.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.130.1232.1432.89-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1262.9662.960.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.120.1268.9769.160.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1279.3178.090.070.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1242.8642.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1250.0050.330.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1253.8555.440.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1224.0024.00-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.090.1262.0761.970.020.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.120.1125.9327.35-0.06-0.05
UCFAmer0.110.1140.7440.68-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.1150.0049.980.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.120.1150.0048.800.00-0.00
DukeACC0.120.1189.6688.420.090.09
RutgersB100.120.1133.3332.69-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0933.3331.66-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.090.0985.7185.710.070.07
AuburnSEC0.090.0937.9337.48-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0961.5461.540.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0979.3178.650.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0935.4836.31-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0927.5927.74-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.7730.77-0.04-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0957.6958.370.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0930.7731.10-0.04-0.03
VCUA100.090.0972.4172.030.040.04
VMISC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0964.2964.290.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0957.1456.740.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0938.4639.08-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.090.0980.0078.510.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.0060.240.020.02
IowaB100.090.0866.6767.370.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0837.9338.69-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0860.0059.110.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0862.0761.980.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0846.4344.97-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0851.7249.590.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0637.0437.86-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0640.7440.41-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0657.6958.440.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.2848.80-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0662.9664.240.010.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0625.9327.44-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.0047.71-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0624.0024.52-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.060.0679.3179.310.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0625.9325.32-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0640.7440.34-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0629.6328.86-0.02-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0668.9768.960.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.5754.430.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0637.0437.16-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0672.4173.240.030.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0670.8368.840.010.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0660.0059.400.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.6757.720.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0668.9768.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.3771.010.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0678.5778.540.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0648.1548.34-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.0026.97-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.030.0658.6257.110.010.01
TexasB120.060.0660.0060.870.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.6741.70-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0643.3342.03-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0630.7731.17-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0655.5655.060.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0673.3373.220.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0689.6689.660.050.05
YaleIvy0.060.0670.3768.760.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0670.0069.540.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.10-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0644.8343.31-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0653.8553.850.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0658.6255.600.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.4346.73-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0657.1456.750.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0665.5264.170.010.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.0075.370.030.03
StanfordP120.030.0664.2961.960.010.01
UtahP120.060.0677.7878.820.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.87-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0343.3342.98-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.32-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0357.1457.410.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0361.5458.940.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.0029.86-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.037.417.66-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.9768.280.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.02-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.16-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0353.5754.400.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0382.1481.290.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.54-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0344.0043.04-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0372.4171.340.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.0020.58-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0326.9225.64-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.5779.280.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.4443.51-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0326.9226.01-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0324.1423.75-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0334.6233.87-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.7731.66-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.3393.330.030.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.7160.860.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0339.2940.47-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0337.5039.77-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.9277.690.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0353.5754.710.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.810.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0358.6260.310.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.0060.840.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.9337.13-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.240.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.5752.310.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0342.8641.44-0.00-0.00