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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:181.0
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:87
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20181.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8North Carolina (25.0)ACCA84-61L0%0.0
11-12UCLA (14.0)P12A91-60L0%0.0
11-15California (63.0)P12A64-60L0%0.0
11-17Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA82-67L0%0.0
11-23Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBN84-75L0%0.0
11-24St. Francis NY (190.0)NECN62-68L0%0.0
11-26Western Michigan (66.0)MACA99-88L0%0.0
12-7Ohio (87.0)MACH73-56W100%0.0
12-10Indiana (102.0)B10A81-54L0%0.0
12-14Michigan St. (18.0)B10N67-63L0%0.0
12-16Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH90-75W100%0.0
12-21Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH79-81L0%0.0
12-22Robert Morris (129.0)NECH100-94W100%0.0
1-2Wright St. (173.0)HorzA76-64L0%0.0
1-4Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH75-70W100%0.0
1-8Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH75-84L0%0.0
1-11Detroit (230.0)HorzA69-77W100%0.0
1-16Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA86-76L0%0.0
1-22Green Bay (58.0)HorzA83-69L0%0.0
1-25UIC (315.0)HorzH76-75W100%0.0
1-31Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH86-85W100%0.0
2-2Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA86-64L0%0.0
2-6Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH85-92L0%0.0
2-9Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA63-60L0%0.0
2-14Detroit (230.0)HorzH83-82W100%0.0
2-16Wright St. (173.0)HorzH71-72L0%0.0
2-21UIC (315.0)HorzA71-86W100%0.0
2-27Green Bay (58.0)HorzH63-71L0%0.0
3-1Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA81-87W100%0.0
3-4Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH96-92W100%0.0
3-7Wright St. (173.0)HorzN73-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.4526.4533.8333.83-8.55-8.55
Wright St.Horz5.765.7651.7251.720.200.20
Youngstown St.Horz5.665.6646.1546.15-0.44-0.44
MilwaukeeHorz4.344.3458.0658.060.700.70
ValparaisoHorz4.224.2250.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz4.214.2160.7160.710.900.90
Green BayHorz4.154.1576.0076.002.162.16
UICHorz4.144.1414.8114.81-2.91-2.91
DetroitHorz4.144.1439.2939.29-0.89-0.89
Robert MorrisNEC1.831.8363.6463.640.500.50
Eastern MichiganMAC1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
OhioMAC1.741.7468.7568.750.650.65
Western MichiganMAC1.711.7170.0070.000.680.68
Michigan St.B101.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
UCLAP121.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
CaliforniaP121.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
IndianaB101.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6653.3353.330.110.11
North CarolinaACC1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
GonzagaWCC1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
ToledoMAC0.390.3981.2581.250.240.24
AkronMAC0.280.2863.6463.640.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.260.2610.7110.71-0.20-0.20
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
NorthwesternB100.250.2542.4242.42-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.230.2357.5857.580.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.210.2134.4834.48-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
South AlabamaSB0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
DePaulBE0.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
DrakeMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
ColoradoP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01