Oakland

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	152.0
Current RPI:	152
Expected SOS:	138
Current SOS:	138
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	107
Expected OOC SOS:	20

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	152.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	90-79	L	0%
11-13	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	88-80	L	0%
11-17	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	72-62	L	0%
11-20	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	69-71	W	100%
11-23	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	70-52	L	0%
11-26	Tennessee (59.0)	SEC	A	77-50	L	0%
12-1	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	76-72	L	0%
12-8	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	78-61	L	0%
12-17	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	70-68	W	100%
12-19	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	76-71	L	0%
12-22	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	57-59	W	100%
12-27	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	73-63	L	0%
12-29	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	62-84	W	100%
1-3	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	91-79	W	100%
1-5	Alabama (60.0)	SEC	A	65-45	L	0%
1-10	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	81-74	L	0%
1-12	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	73-65	L	0%
1-17	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	81-68	W	100%
1-19	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	78-97	L	0%
1-24	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	89-71	W	100%
1-26	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	67-60	W	100%
2-2	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	81-96	W	100%
2-7	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	66-63	W	100%
2-9	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	88-83	W	100%
2-14	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	75-76	W	100%
2-16	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	74-86	W	100%
2-20	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	77-71	L	0%
2-23	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	82-79	W	100%
3-2	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	72-74	L	0%
3-10	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	N	72-91	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oakland	Sum	26.37	26.37	53.23	53.23	1.70	1.70
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	5.89	5.89	39.29	39.29	-1.26	-1.26
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.39	4.39	72.41	72.41	1.97	1.97
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.39	4.39	72.41	72.41	1.97	1.97
Western Illinois	Sum	4.28	4.28	73.08	73.08	1.97	1.97
IUPUI	Sum	4.25	4.25	14.29	14.29	-3.04	-3.04
South Dakota	Sum	4.25	4.25	26.92	26.92	-1.96	-1.96
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.23	4.23	24.14	24.14	-2.19	-2.19
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.17	4.17	37.04	37.04	-1.08	-1.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.85	1.85	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Morehead St.	OVC	1.83	1.83	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Valparaiso	Horz	1.80	1.80	80.65	80.65	1.10	1.10
Alabama	SEC	1.80	1.80	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Western Michigan	MAC	1.80	1.80	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.75	1.75	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
Michigan St.	B10	1.75	1.75	74.19	74.19	0.85	0.85
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.75	1.75	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Ohio	MAC	1.75	1.75	71.88	71.88	0.76	0.76
Boise St.	MWC	1.75	1.75	64.29	64.29	0.50	0.50
Tennessee	SEC	1.74	1.74	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Pittsburgh	BE	1.67	1.67	74.19	74.19	0.81	0.81
West Virginia	B12	1.67	1.67	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Ball St.	MAC	0.31	0.31	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.27	0.27	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.24	0.24	13.79	13.79	-0.18	-0.18
North Dakota	BSky	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Miami OH	MAC	0.21	0.21	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Akron	MAC	0.21	0.21	80.65	80.65	0.13	0.13
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.19	0.19	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.16	0.16	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.16	0.16	23.33	23.33	-0.09	-0.09
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.16	28.12	28.12	-0.07	-0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	28.00	28.00	-0.06	-0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Central Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	10.00	10.00	-0.11	-0.11
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.09	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01