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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Oakland

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:139.0
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:139
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15139.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama (36.0)SECA74-57L0%0.0
11-16Arkansas (110.0)SECA91-68L0%0.0
11-19Grambling (341.0)SWACA45-75W100%0.0
11-22Houston (221.0)CUSAA74-76W100%0.0
11-25Utah Valley (230.0)GWCH89-83W100%0.0
11-28Tennessee (86.0)SECH89-81W100%0.0
12-1South Dakota (291.0)SumH101-83W100%0.0
12-3Missouri Kansas City (266.0)SumH86-73W100%0.0
12-7Ohio (47.0)MACH82-84L0%0.0
12-10Michigan (14.0)B10N90-80L0%0.0
12-17Valparaiso (95.0)HorzA80-82W100%0.0
12-20Arizona (79.0)P12A85-73L0%0.0
12-23Western Michigan (205.0)MACH76-91L0%0.0
12-28North Dakota St. (184.0)SumA96-69L0%0.0
12-30South Dakota St. (42.0)SumA76-64L0%0.0
1-3Oral Roberts (51.0)SumH80-89L0%0.0
1-5Western Illinois (150.0)SumH61-71L0%0.0
1-7IUPUI (211.0)SumH93-81W100%0.0
1-14IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)SumA86-96W100%0.0
1-19Southern Utah (232.0)SumA63-72W100%0.0
1-21Oral Roberts (51.0)SumA93-86L0%0.0
1-26South Dakota St. (42.0)SumH92-87W100%0.0
1-28North Dakota St. (184.0)SumH75-78L0%0.0
2-1IUPUI (211.0)SumA79-75L0%0.0
2-4Western Illinois (150.0)SumA70-74W100%0.0
2-11IUPU Fort Wayne (278.0)SumH93-82W100%0.0
2-15Southern Utah (232.0)SumH76-68W100%0.0
2-18Illinois St. (100.0)MVCA79-75L0%0.0
2-23Missouri Kansas City (266.0)SumA56-89W100%0.0
2-25South Dakota (291.0)SumA77-84W100%0.0
3-4Southern Utah (232.0)SumN82-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandSum26.4626.4653.6953.691.951.95
Southern UtahSum5.795.7942.3142.31-0.89-0.89
South Dakota St.Sum4.414.4180.0080.002.642.64
Western IllinoisSum4.364.3650.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum4.314.3180.6580.652.642.64
IUPUISum4.264.2639.2939.29-0.91-0.91
North Dakota St.Sum4.264.2650.0050.000.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum4.244.2432.0032.00-1.53-1.53
Missouri Kansas CitySum4.214.2133.3333.33-1.40-1.40
South DakotaSum4.164.1630.4330.43-1.63-1.63
ArkansasSEC1.801.8054.8454.840.170.17
Utah ValleyGWC1.751.7559.2659.260.320.32
ValparaisoHorz1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
Western MichiganMAC1.751.7537.5037.50-0.44-0.44
HoustonCUSA1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB101.701.7070.9770.970.710.71
GramblingSWAC1.691.6914.8114.81-1.19-1.19
AlabamaSEC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
TennesseeSEC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
ArizonaP121.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
OhioMAC1.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
North DakotaGWC0.390.3948.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.180.1816.6716.67-0.12-0.12
MississippiSEC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
AkronMAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
TroySB0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.170.1713.3313.33-0.12-0.12
PurdueB100.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
MinnesotaB100.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
FloridaSEC0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
Chicago St.GWC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
NebraskaB100.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
BradleyMVC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Texas St.Slnd0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
Utah St.WAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC0.110.116.676.67-0.09-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Arizona St.P120.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MemphisCUSA0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
OklahomaB120.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
WashingtonP120.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
UCLAP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Texas El PasoCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
DaytonA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Fresno St.WAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
LouisvilleBE0.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
ButlerHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Seattleind0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Longwoodind0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
North TexasSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.033.123.12-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
RutgersBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
OregonP120.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01