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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:261
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:97



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-14182.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Fort Wayne (209.0)SumH85-71W100%0.0
11-13New Orleans (239.0)SlndH87-68W100%0.0
11-18Toledo (75.0)MACA87-74L0%0.0
11-20Syracuse (45.0)ACCA74-50L0%0.0
11-24Kansas (5.0)B12A102-59L0%0.0
11-27Oral Roberts (255.0)SumA86-93W100%0.0
11-30Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH97-87W100%0.0
12-2Western Michigan (177.0)MACA73-78W100%0.0
12-6Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA95-89L0%0.0
12-9Chicago St. (335.0)WACH82-50W100%0.0
12-16Michigan St. (14.0)B10N73-86L0%0.0
12-20Towson (153.0)CAAH97-86W100%0.0
12-22Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH86-81W100%0.0
12-28Milwaukee (231.0)HorzA68-76W100%0.0
12-30Green Bay (303.0)HorzA80-79L0%0.0
1-5Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzH83-87L0%0.0
1-7Wright St. (99.0)HorzH81-86L0%0.0
1-10Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzH95-82W100%0.0
1-12Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzH81-68W100%0.0
1-15Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzA68-78W100%0.0
1-20Detroit (318.0)HorzA86-92W100%0.0
1-26Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzA70-83W100%0.0
1-28Wright St. (99.0)HorzA64-51L0%0.0
2-2Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzH73-79L0%0.0
2-4IUPUI (294.0)HorzH82-74W100%0.0
2-9Detroit (318.0)HorzH87-78W100%0.0
2-14Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzA75-73L0%0.0
2-16Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzA66-82W100%0.0
2-19IUPUI (294.0)HorzA74-67L0%0.0
2-22Green Bay (303.0)HorzH90-96L0%0.0
2-24Milwaukee (231.0)HorzH72-70W100%0.0
3-4IUPUI (294.0)HorzN62-55W100%0.0
3-5Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzN43-44L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.5226.5258.3958.394.454.45
Cleveland St.Horz5.635.6332.2632.26-2.00-2.00
IUPUIHorz5.385.3832.0032.00-1.94-1.94
Wright St.Horz4.124.1270.0070.001.651.65
MilwaukeeHorz4.054.0551.7251.720.140.14
DetroitHorz4.054.0521.4321.43-2.32-2.32
Green BayHorz4.024.0228.5728.57-1.72-1.72
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.004.0050.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz3.993.9917.8617.86-2.57-2.57
Northern KentuckyHorz3.993.9970.3770.371.631.63
Eastern MichiganMAC3.173.1759.2659.260.590.59
ToledoMAC1.951.9565.6265.620.610.61
Western MichiganMAC1.861.8651.7251.720.060.06
Fort WayneSum1.671.6751.8551.850.060.06
SyracuseACC1.631.6359.3859.380.310.31
KansasB121.581.5878.7978.790.910.91
Texas SouthernSWAC1.581.5845.4545.45-0.14-0.14
Michigan St.B101.581.5887.5087.501.191.19
Oral RobertsSum1.571.5729.6329.63-0.64-0.64
Chicago St.WAC1.541.543.453.45-1.43-1.43
New OrleansSlnd1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
TowsonCAA1.521.5255.1755.170.160.16
Northern IllinoisMAC0.380.3836.6736.67-0.10-0.10
AkronMAC0.290.2941.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.280.2858.0658.060.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.270.2748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
WisconsinB100.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
IndianaB100.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
South DakotaSum0.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
DenverSum0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
PurdueB100.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
DePaulBE0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Washington St.P120.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
SeattleWAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
BelmontOVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.1082.7682.760.060.06
MichiganB100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.049.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0412.5012.50-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00