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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:116.0
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:206
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:186



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11116.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH91-81W100%0.0
11-22Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA95-89L0%0.0
11-24Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA97-88L0%0.0
11-27Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACN84-51W100%0.0
11-28Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndN57-85W100%0.0
12-1Georgia (62.0)SECA86-82L0%0.0
12-5Robert Morris (291.0)NECA74-92W100%0.0
12-7Binghamton (299.0)AEH83-72W100%0.0
12-12Toledo (182.0)MACA64-76W100%0.0
12-19Washington (83.0)P12A83-97W100%0.0
12-22Michigan St. (12.0)B10N93-99L0%0.0
12-28Chicago St. (348.0)WACH101-93W100%0.0
12-30Virginia (3.0)ACCA71-58L0%0.0
1-2Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH86-68W100%0.0
1-4Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH98-100L0%0.0
1-8Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH67-84L0%0.0
1-10Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH86-61W100%0.0
1-16Detroit (204.0)HorzA82-86W100%0.0
1-19Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH73-90L0%0.0
1-23Green Bay (112.0)HorzA95-111W100%0.0
1-25Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA79-82W100%0.0
1-29Wright St. (146.0)HorzH89-63W100%0.0
2-1Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA74-85W100%0.0
2-4Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA85-107W100%0.0
2-6Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA57-67W100%0.0
2-11Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH85-93L0%0.0
2-13Green Bay (112.0)HorzH111-93W100%0.0
2-15Wright St. (146.0)HorzA73-89W100%0.0
2-19Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA86-84L0%0.0
2-21Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA63-74W100%0.0
2-26Detroit (204.0)HorzH108-97W100%0.0
3-7Wright St. (146.0)HorzN55-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.3826.3867.6867.689.339.33
Wright St.Horz5.685.6863.3363.331.521.52
Green BayHorz4.294.2967.7467.741.521.52
DetroitHorz4.174.1751.8551.850.150.15
MilwaukeeHorz4.114.1158.6258.620.710.71
Youngstown St.Horz4.114.1128.5728.57-1.76-1.76
ValparaisoHorz4.084.0878.5778.572.332.33
Cleveland St.Horz4.074.0725.0025.00-2.04-2.04
Northern KentuckyHorz4.074.0723.0823.08-2.19-2.19
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.074.0711.5411.54-3.13-3.13
ToledoMAC1.901.9053.3353.330.130.13
Eastern MichiganMAC1.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC1.661.663.573.57-1.54-1.54
Robert MorrisNEC1.641.6432.2632.26-0.58-0.58
Michigan St.B101.621.6284.8584.851.131.13
Colorado St.MWC1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.591.5934.6234.62-0.49-0.49
GeorgiaSEC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
BinghamtonAE1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Alcorn St.SWAC1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
VirginiaACC1.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
WashingtonP121.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.2843.7543.75-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.260.2658.6258.620.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
AkronMAC0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
BelmontOVC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Notre DameACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
IllinoisB100.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
WagnerNEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01