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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Oakland

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:122.5
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:217
Current SOS:227
Current Record:17-9
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:9-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-9101.76.21%
21-10112.936.80%
20-11126.139.58%
19-12140.415.15%
18-13153.62.16%
17-14165.60.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oakland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Eastern Michigan (148.2)MACH91-81W100%0.0
11-22Colorado St. (170.5)MWCA95-89L0%0.0
11-24Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCA97-88L0%0.0
11-27Alcorn St. (279.7)SWACN84-51W100%0.0
11-28Abilene Christian (317.1)SlndN57-85W100%0.0
12-1Georgia (86.7)SECA86-82L0%0.0
12-5Robert Morris (306.1)NECA74-92W100%0.0
12-7Binghamton (299.5)AEH83-72W100%0.0
12-12Toledo (141.8)MACA64-76W100%0.0
12-19Washington (65.7)P12A83-97W100%0.0
12-22Michigan St. (18.7)B10N93-99L0%0.0
12-28Chicago St. (344.4)WACH101-93W100%0.0
12-30Virginia (5.7)ACCA71-58L0%0.0
1-2Cleveland St. (273.0)HorzH86-68W100%0.0
1-4Youngstown St. (260.7)HorzH98-100L0%0.0
1-8Valparaiso (36.3)HorzH67-84L0%0.0
1-10Illinois Chicago (345.3)HorzH86-61W100%0.0
1-16Detroit (218.4)HorzA82-86W100%0.0
1-19Northern Kentucky (246.7)HorzH73-90L0%0.0
1-23Green Bay (155.8)HorzA95-111W100%0.0
1-25Milwaukee (155.2)HorzA79-82W100%0.0
1-29Wright St. (172.6)HorzH89-63W100%0.0
2-1Northern Kentucky (246.7)HorzA74-85W100%0.0
2-4Youngstown St. (260.7)HorzA85-107W100%0.0
2-6Cleveland St. (273.0)HorzA57-67W100%0.0
2-11Milwaukee (155.2)HorzH85-93L0%0.0
2-13Green Bay (155.8)HorzH0-076%7.8
2-15Wright St. (172.6)HorzA0-058%2.2
2-19Valparaiso (36.3)HorzA0-018%-9.9
2-21Illinois Chicago (345.3)HorzA0-093%16.1
2-26Detroit (218.4)HorzH0-085%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oakland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oakland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oakland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OaklandHorz26.4426.3966.9167.608.949.29
Green BayHorz2.694.2059.0961.080.490.93
Youngstown St.Horz4.484.1928.5730.92-1.92-1.60
DetroitHorz2.774.1947.6246.79-0.13-0.27
ValparaisoHorz2.694.1781.8282.451.712.71
Cleveland St.Horz4.454.1723.8124.46-2.33-2.13
Northern KentuckyHorz4.524.1630.0033.93-1.81-1.34
MilwaukeeHorz4.444.1461.9063.391.061.11
Wright St.Horz2.654.1456.5256.230.350.52
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.594.1310.0011.25-2.08-3.20
ToledoMAC2.261.9663.6464.210.620.56
Eastern MichiganMAC2.011.7542.1144.87-0.32-0.18
Chicago St.WAC2.011.724.557.99-1.82-1.45
Robert MorrisNEC2.051.7028.0029.55-0.90-0.69
Michigan St.B102.011.6779.1780.941.171.03
Colorado St.MWC1.971.6452.3850.840.090.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.971.6436.8436.21-0.52-0.45
BinghamtonAE1.961.6425.0027.37-0.98-0.74
GeorgiaSEC1.961.6457.1453.560.280.12
Alcorn St.SWAC1.921.6142.1141.90-0.30-0.26
Southern IllinoisMVC1.921.6172.0071.700.850.70
VirginiaACC1.921.6182.6177.721.250.89
WashingtonP121.921.6165.2262.220.590.39
Bowling GreenMAC0.340.2850.0045.860.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.260.2660.0057.680.050.04
Kent St.MAC0.290.2265.2260.710.090.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.290.2245.8343.78-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.170.2060.8757.170.040.03
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1747.6249.39-0.01-0.00
AkronMAC0.220.1782.6181.130.140.10
BelmontOVC0.170.1768.0066.640.060.06
Murray St.OVC0.200.1747.8350.90-0.010.00
WisconsinB100.160.1662.5056.990.040.02
DrakeMVC0.130.1420.8323.28-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.210.1470.8366.750.090.05
BuffaloMAC0.220.1454.1754.420.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.130.1434.7832.89-0.04-0.05
Notre DameACC0.210.1470.8367.910.090.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1416.6719.49-0.11-0.08
UCFAmer0.090.1250.0044.640.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1239.1341.06-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1252.1753.440.010.01
XavierBE0.130.1287.5081.840.100.07
IllinoisB100.130.1145.8344.06-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.180.1138.4638.04-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1131.8232.68-0.03-0.04
OhioMAC0.130.1165.2263.630.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.1156.0054.080.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.1156.0055.750.020.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1144.0043.56-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.160.1125.0027.25-0.08-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1154.1751.980.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.130.1179.1776.000.070.06
Air ForceMWC0.120.1143.4837.80-0.02-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1150.0049.490.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.1137.5037.41-0.02-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1142.3146.12-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0928.5733.29-0.04-0.03
DePaulBE0.090.0933.3334.02-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0931.5832.03-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0958.3359.970.010.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0983.3382.090.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0929.1733.08-0.05-0.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0972.7367.600.040.03
West VirginiaB120.130.0979.1778.100.070.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.0025.68-0.05-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0925.0025.09-0.07-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0920.0022.24-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.080.0948.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0945.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.0913.0415.26-0.09-0.06
New HampshireAE0.130.0959.0956.880.020.01
VermontAE0.090.0952.0054.840.000.01
SeattleWAC0.120.0845.4543.98-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.0854.1754.210.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0865.2268.610.020.03
KentuckySEC0.080.0875.0072.620.040.04
OregonP120.040.0879.1777.220.020.04
Oregon St.P120.040.0863.6458.770.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.130.0823.8122.85-0.07-0.04
StanfordP120.040.0847.6244.07-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0833.3333.62-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0850.0046.760.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.130.0860.8760.430.030.02
DuquesneA100.120.0860.8756.270.030.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0866.6766.320.030.03
MarylandB100.120.0887.5083.680.090.05
PurdueB100.120.0880.0077.900.070.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0858.3358.410.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0870.8365.570.030.03
PennIvy0.120.0836.8437.30-0.03-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.0812.5013.26-0.08-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0856.0055.450.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0852.1751.840.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.0011.95-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.040.0860.0055.570.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.87-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0615.0018.12-0.07-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0650.0049.890.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0655.5652.480.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.220.000.01
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.17-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0643.4850.67-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.13-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0614.2924.87-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.340.010.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0676.1972.410.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.18-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0645.4546.07-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0666.6767.660.030.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0628.5732.73-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0614.2915.47-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0633.3334.95-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.090.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0680.0075.690.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0652.0050.770.000.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0673.0873.770.040.03
AmericanPat0.080.0629.1731.18-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.040.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
DenverSum0.080.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0660.8760.240.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0650.0052.880.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0624.0024.55-0.04-0.03
IonaMAAC0.040.0660.8760.730.010.01
IPFWSum0.040.0670.8368.650.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0658.3356.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0628.0030.50-0.04-0.02
MaineAE0.040.0632.0031.17-0.01-0.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0662.5058.940.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0633.3330.27-0.03-0.02
NevadaMWC0.040.0657.1455.350.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0623.0823.85-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0645.0048.15-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.040.0623.8125.99-0.02-0.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0638.4641.36-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0669.5770.090.030.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0633.3332.04-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0686.9680.430.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0673.9174.640.040.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0682.6183.030.050.04
UMass LowellAE0.040.0637.5037.68-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.040.0623.0825.89-0.02-0.03
UNLVMWC0.040.0652.1755.080.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0647.6249.27-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0643.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0631.8230.08-0.01-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0627.2727.81-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0655.0053.660.000.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0564.0062.090.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0547.8351.93-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.080.0580.0078.730.050.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0556.0053.630.010.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0566.6764.780.010.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0582.6177.600.030.03
TexasB120.080.0566.6762.200.030.01
UCLAP120.080.0554.1752.980.010.00
USCP120.080.0575.0071.140.040.02
UtahP120.080.0570.8368.530.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0552.0048.910.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.040.0534.7831.64-0.01-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0529.1726.68-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.080.0539.1342.83-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0524.0024.92-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0572.0073.080.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0552.1753.740.000.00
IowaB100.080.0579.1778.890.040.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0550.0051.280.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0531.8232.47-0.03-0.02
RutgersB100.040.0521.7420.33-0.02-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0533.3336.30-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0540.0043.49-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0560.8762.520.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0573.9176.700.040.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0323.8129.52-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.63-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.13-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0366.6767.110.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0358.3358.580.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0326.3232.42-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0362.5064.110.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.60-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.710.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0350.0050.500.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.64-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0370.8367.960.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0364.0057.890.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0360.8755.980.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0052.940.000.00
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.450.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.500.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0383.3383.710.030.02
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.040.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0363.6461.560.000.01
High PointBSth0.040.0357.1459.870.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.040.0362.5059.070.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0343.4843.76-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0358.3360.710.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0370.8368.090.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0372.7370.390.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.120.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.350.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0321.7422.42-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0366.6763.790.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.13-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0333.3330.63-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0375.0071.810.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0366.6763.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.980.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0379.1777.510.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0368.1867.730.020.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0360.0062.700.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.89-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0383.3378.390.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0048.970.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0368.0064.070.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0387.5086.850.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.040.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0368.1867.120.010.01
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.970.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0372.0071.570.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.040.0382.6179.210.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0372.0069.130.020.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0365.2264.330.010.01