live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:34.2
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:186
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-32.90.07%
27-44.70.26%
26-56.41.07%
25-69.53.41%
24-712.87.39%
23-817.713.17%
22-924.118.89%
21-1031.618.31%
20-1141.115.62%
19-1252.211.08%
18-1364.86.11%
17-1479.62.94%
16-1595.51.20%
15-16109.00.35%
14-17132.40.09%
13-18145.50.02%
12-19195.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kennesaw St. (321.5)ASunH89-42W100%0.0
11-16Hampton (241.8)MEACH65-47W100%0.0
11-20California (45.1)P12N73-59L0%0.0
11-21Iowa (38.6)B10N66-63W100%0.0
11-25Loyola MD (272.3)PatH0-098%25.3
11-28Holy Cross (110.9)PatH0-090%15.2
12-2Michigan (46.1)B10A0-044%-1.7
12-6St. John's (116.1)BEH0-083%11.6
12-14Louisiana Tech (69.9)CUSAH0-080%10.1
12-20Villanova (68.8)BEA0-052%0.6
12-22Colgate (206.6)PatH0-096%20.7
12-28Long Beach St. (78.5)BWH0-085%12.6
12-31Cornell (261.9)IvyH0-097%22.5
1-3Virginia Tech (232.6)ACCA0-085%12.4
1-7Georgia Tech (84.5)ACCA0-060%3.1
1-11Florida St. (130.3)ACCH0-084%11.9
1-13Wake Forest (143.5)ACCH0-088%13.9
1-17Clemson (110.8)ACCA0-057%2.2
1-20Boston College (154.6)ACCH0-088%14.3
1-24Miami FL (18.9)ACCH0-059%2.7
1-26North Carolina (11.8)ACCA0-028%-7.1
2-3Virginia Tech (232.6)ACCH0-095%19.5
2-7Pittsburgh (105.0)ACCA0-061%3.3
2-11Boston College (154.6)ACCA0-072%7.1
2-14Duke (2.5)ACCH0-032%-5.8
2-18Louisville (11.1)ACCH0-047%-0.9
2-21Pittsburgh (105.0)ACCH0-081%10.5
2-24Notre Dame (36.7)ACCA0-034%-4.8
2-28Duke (2.5)ACCA0-014%-12.9
3-2Virginia (14.7)ACCH0-052%0.7
3-7North Carolina St. (57.0)ACCA0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC30.9426.0668.7565.8911.608.28
PittsburghACC0.003.7966.6752.400.000.18
DukeACC0.003.77100.0086.740.002.77
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7650.0043.090.00-0.52
Virginia TechACC0.003.7466.6734.820.00-1.14
LouisvilleACC0.002.24100.0079.480.001.32
Notre DameACC0.002.24100.0074.920.001.12
Florida St.ACC0.002.2433.3347.82-0.00-0.10
Miami FLACC0.002.23100.0074.640.001.10
North CarolinaACC0.002.23100.0073.330.001.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.21100.0059.520.000.42
Wake ForestACC0.002.2150.0042.610.00-0.33
VirginiaACC0.002.20100.0076.720.001.18
ClemsonACC0.002.1850.0051.410.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.002.18100.0053.570.000.16
Holy CrossPat0.001.78100.0065.400.000.55
ColgatePat0.001.7633.3342.44-0.00-0.27
Loyola MDPat0.001.7650.0033.060.00-0.59
St. John'sBE0.001.75100.0053.830.000.13
IowaB1014.061.7066.6767.764.690.60
VillanovaBE0.001.67100.0065.860.000.53
CornellIvy0.001.6740.0041.97-0.00-0.27
Long Beach St.BW0.001.6733.3355.24-0.000.17
CaliforniaP1213.751.6466.6768.824.580.62
HamptonMEAC14.061.6433.3353.40-4.690.11
Kennesaw St.ASun14.061.6425.0027.85-7.03-0.73
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.6475.0072.860.000.75
MichiganB100.001.64100.0064.700.000.48
BucknellPat0.000.2525.0035.71-0.00-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.24100.0069.670.000.10
AmericanPat0.000.2250.0054.620.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.22100.0066.100.000.07
LehighPat0.000.200.0036.87-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.200.0032.62-0.00-0.07
IllinoisB100.000.19100.0067.100.000.07
ButlerBE0.000.19100.0061.850.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.19100.0071.340.000.08
HarvardIvy0.000.1750.0067.960.000.06
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1733.3359.57-0.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.1775.0064.270.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1666.6771.600.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.1666.6761.350.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.16100.0084.890.000.11
NJITind0.000.1425.0025.21-0.00-0.07
NorthwesternB100.000.14100.0042.120.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1433.3340.91-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.14100.0077.070.000.07
Penn St.B100.000.1475.0047.170.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.140.0034.71-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.14100.0062.040.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1425.0031.88-0.00-0.05
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0067.570.000.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.130.0024.77-0.00-0.07
HawaiiBW0.000.1175.0054.790.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1150.0062.620.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.11100.0051.050.000.00
RutgersB100.000.1150.0037.560.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.110.0035.51-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.11100.0072.860.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0028.50-0.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1133.3321.74-0.00-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.000.1125.0040.91-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0055.850.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.11100.0037.850.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.11100.0062.070.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.110.0040.40-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0056.980.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1120.0027.80-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC4.380.110.0031.92-4.38-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1175.0060.410.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.110.0047.13-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.1150.0027.780.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6752.320.000.00
PurdueB100.000.11100.0060.550.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1150.0053.100.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1075.0071.090.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0925.0037.31-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.080.0025.60-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0850.0034.510.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0850.0037.760.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0850.0044.170.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0833.3324.07-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0833.3345.85-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.080.0032.48-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0033.68-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.08100.0064.500.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0833.3346.76-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0041.59-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0833.3348.73-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.08100.0070.030.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.080.0041.97-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0833.3344.56-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.080.0025.03-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0833.3357.45-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum4.380.0850.0044.810.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.080.0032.07-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.080.0036.19-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.080.0043.18-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.08100.0053.840.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0069.320.000.03
TexasB123.120.08100.0081.743.120.05
UCLAP120.000.08100.0062.510.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.08100.0043.160.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0850.0041.720.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0833.3341.21-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0825.0031.12-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0833.3336.55-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.08100.0045.990.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.08100.0072.420.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.080.0028.08-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.08100.0056.330.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0866.6767.200.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0875.0075.140.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.650.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0042.650.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0063.070.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6762.540.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3362.56-0.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.64-0.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0054.290.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0042.500.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.900.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.27-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.060.0042.80-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0018.23-0.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0034.55-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0041.91-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0032.69-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6752.550.000.00
OregonP120.000.05100.0071.440.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0566.6746.540.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0037.110.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.05100.0073.570.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.05100.0073.660.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0533.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0550.0038.370.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0085.630.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0550.0035.040.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0533.3335.41-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0550.0045.600.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0550.0053.430.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.05100.0069.180.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0550.0037.430.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0533.3336.99-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0566.6751.200.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0533.3341.77-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0550.0054.970.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.05100.0076.190.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0533.3325.18-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0566.6767.450.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.05100.0046.040.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0533.3364.19-0.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.05100.0057.540.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0533.3327.58-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0333.3354.50-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.32-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.630.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0068.880.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.710.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0035.11-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6768.980.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.510.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0070.980.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.84-0.00-0.00
MercerSC1.250.0350.0052.260.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3354.70-0.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.830.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3364.76-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0032.70-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6744.970.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0060.360.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0056.39-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0029.55-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.98-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0067.49-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.00-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.040.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0025.43-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.720.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6762.810.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.670.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.830.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0333.3322.74-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0049.460.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.830.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.730.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3345.63-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6748.790.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.700.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.850.000.01