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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:71.5
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:31
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-716.70.13%
23-822.10.63%
22-927.22.07%
21-1035.25.95%
20-1143.811.70%
19-1255.117.81%
18-1368.120.32%
17-1482.218.86%
16-1597.712.50%
15-16112.86.29%
14-17128.22.52%
13-18145.70.88%
12-19160.00.27%
11-20180.80.05%
10-21207.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kennesaw St. (295.2)ASunH89-42W100%0.0
11-16Hampton (246.4)MEACH65-47W100%0.0
11-20California (56.7)P12N73-59L0%0.0
11-21Iowa (50.4)B10N66-63W100%0.0
11-25Loyola MD (294.1)PatH70-37W100%0.0
11-28Holy Cross (158.1)PatH72-48W100%0.0
12-2Michigan (137.4)B10A68-65L0%0.0
12-6St. John's (43.2)BEH57-69L0%0.0
12-14Louisiana Tech (111.8)CUSAH71-69W100%0.0
12-20Villanova (17.0)BEA0-018%-10.8
12-22Colgate (185.4)PatH0-088%13.5
12-28Long Beach St. (90.1)BWH0-080%9.9
12-31Cornell (181.7)IvyH0-088%14.1
1-3Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCA0-069%5.7
1-7Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCA0-050%-0.0
1-11Florida St. (207.5)ACCH0-089%14.2
1-13Wake Forest (156.3)ACCH0-084%11.5
1-17Clemson (159.7)ACCA0-059%2.8
1-20Boston College (153.8)ACCH0-085%12.3
1-24Miami FL (23.0)ACCH0-048%-0.5
1-26North Carolina (11.6)ACCA0-013%-13.5
2-3Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCH0-089%14.5
2-7Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCA0-050%-0.0
2-11Boston College (153.8)ACCA0-062%3.6
2-14Duke (4.6)ACCH0-025%-8.0
2-18Louisville (7.1)ACCH0-026%-7.5
2-21Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCH0-077%8.7
2-24Notre Dame (68.4)ACCA0-026%-7.5
2-28Duke (4.6)ACCA0-08%-16.8
3-2Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-029%-6.4
3-7North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCA0-030%-6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC27.6726.0457.1453.863.952.01
PittsburghACC0.003.7866.6753.440.000.26
DukeACC0.003.75100.0087.370.002.80
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7566.6743.220.00-0.51
Virginia TechACC0.003.7355.5639.310.00-0.80
Notre DameACC0.002.2290.9171.820.000.97
LouisvilleACC0.002.22100.0085.710.001.58
Miami FLACC0.002.2290.0076.310.001.17
Florida St.ACC0.002.2250.0038.380.00-0.51
North CarolinaACC0.252.2270.0071.100.100.94
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.1981.8263.920.000.61
Wake ForestACC0.002.1950.0038.720.00-0.49
VirginiaACC0.002.19100.0085.810.001.57
ClemsonACC0.002.1666.6745.840.00-0.18
Georgia TechACC0.002.1677.7851.400.000.06
Holy CrossPat5.561.7766.6755.181.850.18
ColgatePat0.001.7620.0044.14-0.00-0.21
Loyola MDPat5.561.7537.5028.69-1.39-0.75
St. John'sBE5.561.7485.7163.843.970.48
IowaB105.831.6980.0064.683.500.50
VillanovaBE0.311.69100.0082.080.311.09
CornellIvy0.311.6755.5649.550.03-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.001.6740.0051.11-0.000.04
MichiganB105.561.6650.0040.500.00-0.32
CaliforniaP125.811.6488.8965.584.520.51
HamptonMEAC5.811.6444.4452.12-0.650.07
Kennesaw St.ASun5.831.6440.0034.87-1.17-0.50
Louisiana TechCUSA5.561.6480.0070.093.330.66
BucknellPat0.310.2540.0036.29-0.06-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.2472.7353.260.000.02
AmericanPat0.530.2260.0065.400.110.07
ArmyPat0.000.2277.7868.780.000.08
LehighPat0.000.2037.5047.71-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.2020.0021.58-0.00-0.11
IllinoisB100.280.1972.7365.930.130.06
ButlerBE0.560.1980.0072.550.340.08
Ohio St.B100.000.1990.0084.680.000.13
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1733.3342.19-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.1775.0069.820.000.07
HarvardIvy0.400.1785.7172.940.280.08
Michigan St.B100.000.1672.7373.150.000.07
XavierBE0.000.1680.0070.960.000.07
MinnesotaB100.350.1677.7864.730.190.05
WisconsinB100.000.1690.9188.390.000.12
NJITind1.050.1436.3640.98-0.29-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1460.0035.070.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1360.0040.620.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0011.87-0.00-0.10
Penn St.B100.000.1390.9153.850.000.01
SamfordSC0.510.1333.3331.58-0.17-0.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1355.5647.870.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.1380.0057.630.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1390.0066.940.000.04
PresbyterianBSth0.250.130.008.63-0.25-0.11
ColumbiaIvy0.310.1162.5064.770.080.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.280.110.0016.85-0.28-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.000.1160.0064.620.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1130.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC1.060.110.0028.26-1.06-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1175.0071.730.000.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.1118.1835.99-0.18-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1144.4456.91-0.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.280.1127.2737.85-0.13-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.280.1137.5034.19-0.07-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1141.6744.33-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6743.780.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.1172.7363.730.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1160.0064.610.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.1172.7351.560.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.1160.0034.110.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1166.6759.460.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1166.6754.830.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1190.0067.260.000.04
USCP120.000.1160.0036.120.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1160.0055.630.000.01
TempleAmer0.250.1063.6455.600.070.01
UCLAP120.000.1072.7357.280.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1060.0064.930.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1075.0057.570.000.02
BrownIvy0.400.0940.0033.79-0.08-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0850.0056.340.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.080.0014.79-0.28-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0840.0046.73-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0810.0018.58-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.780.0855.5656.400.090.01
PennIvy0.000.0837.5033.00-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0810.0027.42-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.560.0810.0020.91-0.45-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.0855.5654.360.000.01
FIUCUSA0.250.0844.4451.04-0.030.00
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.660.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.560.080.0018.94-0.56-0.05
DaytonA100.000.0877.7870.120.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0857.1464.620.000.02
ArizonaP120.310.08100.0080.590.310.05
ElonCAA0.000.0837.5047.87-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4439.74-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.0837.5037.96-0.08-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.0850.0032.620.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0850.0055.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0818.1828.02-0.00-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.280.0842.8638.75-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0820.0028.20-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0850.0049.960.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.280.0811.1125.02-0.22-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.0830.0037.28-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0053.820.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0860.0037.220.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.350.0814.2930.74-0.25-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0830.0031.57-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0870.0072.830.000.04
TexasB120.530.0890.0081.860.420.05
WashingtonP120.000.08100.0071.820.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0822.2237.50-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0890.0078.050.000.04
The CitadelSC0.000.0816.6730.84-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0877.7876.240.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5661.390.000.01
AlbanyAE0.400.0633.3348.89-0.13-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.400.0650.0058.360.000.01
HartfordAE0.400.0650.0051.050.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.310.0637.5051.81-0.080.00
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.050.0012.36-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0562.5064.260.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0520.0029.81-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0037.13-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0544.4470.08-0.000.02
OregonP120.310.0566.6758.060.100.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.0555.5640.500.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0536.3638.88-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0570.0060.790.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0511.1121.08-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0510.0018.61-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0544.4445.64-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0570.0058.600.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0542.8627.08-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0585.7161.020.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0537.5046.78-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0542.8643.10-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0537.5064.43-0.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0566.6772.670.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0542.8637.65-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.960.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0533.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5077.020.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.350.0528.5741.17-0.15-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0518.1844.62-0.16-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0525.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0039.44-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.790.000.01
VCUA100.000.0570.0071.420.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0555.5649.500.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0542.8649.98-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0057.510.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0528.5731.23-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.59-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0094.790.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.0525.0034.77-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.50-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0555.5657.090.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0544.4444.78-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0065.410.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0560.0059.420.000.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3339.22-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.86-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.250.0344.4451.58-0.030.00
DetroitHorz0.310.0344.4448.88-0.03-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.310.0371.4363.410.130.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.250.0371.4361.370.110.01
MercerSC0.250.0337.5042.45-0.06-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.78-0.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.13-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.330.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3354.74-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.310.0388.8955.910.240.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.0345.4544.07-0.02-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
FordhamA100.350.0328.5728.26-0.15-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.40-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.350.0390.0090.940.280.02
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.350.0333.3344.71-0.12-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.0342.8652.71-0.040.00
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0318.1846.16-0.16-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.030.0037.73-0.25-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0052.800.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.100.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.250.030.0033.84-0.25-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.980.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0068.680.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.240.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0330.0029.80-0.11-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.008.88-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.480.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
Iowa St.B120.250.0388.8963.800.200.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.250.0320.0026.57-0.15-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.280.0325.0052.09-0.140.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.860.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7855.460.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.250.0375.0058.430.130.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5634.940.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.19-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.75-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.480.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.750.000.00
WyomingMWC0.280.0377.7873.370.150.01