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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:72.0
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:43
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1372.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lehigh (168.0)PatH57-47W100%0.0
11-17St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H79-66W100%0.0
11-21Elon (160.0)CAAH66-55W100%0.0
11-25Charlotte (234.0)CUSAN83-70W100%0.0
11-26Connecticut (32.0)AmerN79-76W100%0.0
11-27Texas A&M (18.0)SECN67-74W100%0.0
12-2Wisconsin (43.0)B10H58-66L0%0.0
12-5Georgetown (106.0)BEA79-72L0%0.0
12-8Colgate (241.0)PatH78-51W100%0.0
12-13St. John's (246.0)BEA84-72L0%0.0
12-19Cornell (244.0)IvyH67-46W100%0.0
12-22Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH82-60W100%0.0
12-27Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
12-30Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
1-2Miami FL (9.0)ACCA64-51L0%0.0
1-5Clemson (131.0)ACCH73-74L0%0.0
1-9North Carolina (5.0)ACCH73-84L0%0.0
1-13Boston College (250.0)ACCH62-40W100%0.0
1-16Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA55-83W100%0.0
1-18Duke (20.0)ACCA62-64W100%0.0
1-24Virginia (3.0)ACCA73-65L0%0.0
1-28Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH81-66W100%0.0
1-30Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH60-57W100%0.0
2-2Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH68-60W100%0.0
2-11Florida St. (82.0)ACCH85-72W100%0.0
2-14Boston College (250.0)ACCA61-75W100%0.0
2-17Louisville (17.0)ACCA72-58L0%0.0
2-20Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH52-66L0%0.0
2-27North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH75-66W100%0.0
2-29North Carolina (5.0)ACCA75-70L0%0.0
3-5Florida St. (82.0)ACCA78-73L0%0.0
3-9Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCN72-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC26.0826.0856.8256.823.563.56
PittsburghACC5.225.2260.7160.711.121.12
North CarolinaACC3.763.7681.2581.252.352.35
Florida St.ACC3.683.6860.0060.000.740.74
Boston CollegeACC3.683.6823.3323.33-1.96-1.96
Georgia TechACC2.262.2659.3859.380.420.42
Virginia TechACC2.222.2259.3859.380.420.42
DukeACC2.222.2271.8871.880.970.97
VirginiaACC2.222.2278.1278.121.251.25
North Carolina St.ACC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC2.192.1953.3353.330.150.15
Notre DameACC2.192.1967.7467.740.780.78
Miami FLACC2.192.1977.4277.421.201.20
LouisvilleACC2.152.1573.3373.331.001.00
Wake ForestACC2.122.1236.6736.67-0.56-0.56
GeorgetownBE1.711.7143.7543.75-0.21-0.21
CornellIvy1.691.6934.6234.62-0.52-0.52
ColgatePat1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
LehighPat1.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
CharlotteCUSA1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
ElonCAA1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
Texas SouthernSWAC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
ConnecticutAmer1.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
WisconsinB101.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
Montana St.BSky1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
St. BonaventureA101.561.5675.8675.860.810.81
Texas A&MSEC1.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
DavidsonA100.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
DePaulBE0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
BucknellPat0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
DuquesneA100.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
MarquetteBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
IndianaB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
VCUA100.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
TempleAmer0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
LafayettePat0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
ArmyPat0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
FordhamA100.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
HofstraCAA0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
FloridaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1235.2935.29-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0229.1729.17-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00