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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:45.0
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:19
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1345.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cornell (248.0)IvyH77-45W100%0.0
11-14Iona (107.0)MAACH71-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
11-20Oakland (182.0)HorzH74-50W100%0.0
11-22Toledo (75.0)MACH72-64W100%0.0
11-27Maryland (74.0)B10H72-70W100%0.0
12-2Kansas (5.0)B12N60-76L0%0.0
12-5Connecticut (123.0)AmerN63-72W100%0.0
12-9Colgate (185.0)PatH72-58W100%0.0
12-16Georgetown (169.0)BEA79-86W100%0.0
12-19Buffalo (25.0)MACH81-74W100%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H57-60L0%0.0
12-27Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH62-47W100%0.0
12-31Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH68-56W100%0.0
1-3Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA73-67L0%0.0
1-6Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH49-51L0%0.0
1-9Virginia (1.0)ACCA68-61L0%0.0
1-13Florida St. (54.0)ACCA101-90L0%0.0
1-16Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH59-45W100%0.0
1-24Boston College (96.0)ACCH81-63W100%0.0
1-27Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA55-60W100%0.0
1-31Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA55-51L0%0.0
2-3Virginia (1.0)ACCH44-59L0%0.0
2-5Louisville (38.0)ACCA73-78W100%0.0
2-11Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH78-70W100%0.0
2-14North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCH70-74L0%0.0
2-17Miami FL (28.0)ACCA55-62W100%0.0
2-21North Carolina (4.0)ACCH74-78L0%0.0
2-24Duke (7.0)ACCA60-44L0%0.0
2-28Boston College (96.0)ACCA85-70L0%0.0
3-3Clemson (11.0)ACCH55-52W100%0.0
3-6Wake Forest (160.0)ACCN73-64W100%0.0
3-7North Carolina (4.0)ACCN78-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC26.1126.1155.9455.943.103.10
Wake ForestACC5.015.0135.7135.71-1.43-1.43
North CarolinaACC3.643.6469.7069.701.431.43
Boston CollegeACC3.623.6256.2556.250.450.45
VirginiaACC3.613.6193.5593.553.153.15
PittsburghACC3.543.5426.6726.67-1.65-1.65
DukeACC2.212.2178.1278.121.241.24
Notre DameACC2.192.1956.2556.250.270.27
ClemsonACC2.192.1974.1974.191.061.06
LouisvilleACC2.172.1762.5062.500.540.54
Georgia TechACC2.172.1738.7138.71-0.49-0.49
North Carolina St.ACC2.172.1764.5264.520.630.63
Miami FLACC2.142.1473.3373.331.001.00
Virginia TechACC2.102.1067.7467.740.740.74
Florida St.ACC2.102.1063.3363.330.560.56
ToledoMAC1.741.7468.7568.750.650.65
Eastern MichiganMAC1.651.6560.7160.710.350.35
OaklandHorz1.631.6359.3859.380.310.31
ColgatePat1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
BuffaloMAC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
Texas SouthernSWAC1.611.6145.4545.45-0.15-0.15
KansasB121.581.5878.7978.790.910.91
CornellIvy1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
St. BonaventureA101.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5445.1645.16-0.15-0.15
MarylandB101.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
GeorgetownBE1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
IonaMAAC1.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
RichmondA100.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.180.1887.8887.880.140.14
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
DavidsonA100.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
West VirginiaB120.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1526.9226.92-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
LehighPat0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
BucknellPat0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
YaleIvy0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
DuquesneA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Penn St.B100.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
IndianaB100.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
LafayettePat0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DetroitHorz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
SienaMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0932.3532.35-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
TCUB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0412.5012.50-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00