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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:84.0
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:61
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1484.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Colgate (294.0)PatH83-55W100%0.0
11-15Holy Cross (204.0)PatH90-46W100%0.0
11-18Monmouth (49.0)MAACH71-50W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH101-59W100%0.0
11-26South Carolina (42.0)SECN64-50L0%0.0
11-29Wisconsin (35.0)B10A77-60L0%0.0
12-3North Florida (217.0)ASunH77-71W100%0.0
12-5Connecticut (118.0)AmerN50-52L0%0.0
12-10Boston University (187.0)PatH99-77W100%0.0
12-17Georgetown (106.0)BEH71-78L0%0.0
12-19Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH105-57W100%0.0
12-21St. John's (140.0)BEH60-93L0%0.0
12-27Cornell (270.0)IvyH80-56W100%0.0
1-1Boston College (219.0)ACCA96-81L0%0.0
1-4Miami FL (41.0)ACCH70-55W100%0.0
1-7Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH77-66W100%0.0
1-10Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA83-73L0%0.0
1-14Boston College (219.0)ACCH76-53W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina (5.0)ACCA85-68L0%0.0
1-21Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA84-66L0%0.0
1-24Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH81-76W100%0.0
1-28Florida St. (14.0)ACCH82-72W100%0.0
2-1North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA93-100W100%0.0
2-4Virginia (18.0)ACCH66-62W100%0.0
2-7Clemson (69.0)ACCA81-82W100%0.0
2-11Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA80-75L0%0.0
2-13Louisville (7.0)ACCH72-76L0%0.0
2-19Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA71-65L0%0.0
2-22Duke (6.0)ACCH78-75W100%0.0
2-26Louisville (7.0)ACCA88-68L0%0.0
3-4Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH90-61W100%0.0
3-8Miami FL (41.0)ACCN57-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC26.0326.0350.8250.820.430.43
PittsburghACC3.743.7448.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Miami FLACC3.713.7166.6766.671.241.24
Georgia TechACC3.653.6551.7251.720.130.13
LouisvilleACC3.653.6573.3373.331.701.70
Boston CollegeACC3.633.6326.6726.67-1.69-1.69
Notre DameACC2.272.2772.7372.731.031.03
DukeACC2.242.2479.4179.411.321.32
North CarolinaACC2.232.2378.1278.121.261.26
ClemsonACC2.222.2254.8454.840.210.21
VirginiaACC2.212.2170.9770.970.930.93
North Carolina St.ACC2.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC2.192.1967.7467.740.780.78
Wake ForestACC2.192.1961.2961.290.490.49
Florida St.ACC2.162.1678.1278.121.221.22
Holy CrossPat1.741.7448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat1.711.7130.0030.00-0.69-0.69
Boston UniversityPat1.711.7156.6756.670.230.23
South Carolina St.MEAC1.711.7132.1432.14-0.61-0.61
MonmouthMAAC1.691.6984.3884.381.161.16
GeorgetownBE1.681.6841.9441.94-0.27-0.27
South CarolinaSEC1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
ConnecticutAmer1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
North FloridaASun1.641.6437.9337.93-0.39-0.39
St. John'sBE1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
CornellIvy1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
WisconsinB101.611.6172.7372.730.730.73
Eastern MichiganMAC1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
LehighPat0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
LafayettePat0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
NavyPat0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
MarquetteBE0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
AmericanPat0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.070.07
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.130.1361.5461.540.030.03
YaleIvy0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
AuburnSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
SMUAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
MichiganB100.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MaineAE0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
MaristMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01