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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Syracuse

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:14.0
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:7
Current Record:26-9
Expected Record:26-9
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-914.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11San Diego St. (30.0)MWCN49-62W100%0.0
11-18Wagner (126.0)NECH88-57W100%0.0
11-21Princeton (124.0)IvyH73-53W100%0.0
11-25Colgate (256.0)PatH87-51W100%0.0
11-30Arkansas (89.0)SECA82-91W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACH84-48W100%0.0
12-6Long Beach St. (115.0)BWH84-53W100%0.0
12-8Monmouth (282.0)NECH108-56W100%0.0
12-15Canisius (112.0)MAACH85-61W100%0.0
12-17Detroit (63.0)HorzH72-68W100%0.0
12-22Temple (42.0)A10N79-83L0%0.0
12-29Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACH57-36W100%0.0
12-31Central Connecticut (200.0)NECH96-62W100%0.0
1-2Rutgers (109.0)BEH78-53W100%0.0
1-6South Florida (156.0)BEA44-55W100%0.0
1-9Providence (91.0)BEA66-72W100%0.0
1-12Villanova (52.0)BEH72-61W100%0.0
1-19Louisville (3.0)BEA68-70W100%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (50.0)BEH57-55W100%0.0
1-26Villanova (52.0)BEA75-71L0%0.0
2-2Pittsburgh (44.0)BEA65-55L0%0.0
2-4Notre Dame (35.0)BEH63-47W100%0.0
2-10St. John's (96.0)BEH77-58W100%0.0
2-13Connecticut (49.0)BEA66-58L0%0.0
2-16Seton Hall (138.0)BEA65-76W100%0.0
2-20Providence (91.0)BEH84-59W100%0.0
2-23Georgetown (11.0)BEH46-57L0%0.0
2-25Marquette (13.0)BEA74-71L0%0.0
3-2Louisville (3.0)BEH53-58L0%0.0
3-6DePaul (204.0)BEH78-57W100%0.0
3-9Georgetown (11.0)BEA61-39L0%0.0
3-13Seton Hall (138.0)BEN75-63W100%0.0
3-14Pittsburgh (44.0)BEN59-62W100%0.0
3-15Georgetown (11.0)BEN55-58W100%0.0
3-16Louisville (3.0)BEN78-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseBE26.2426.2473.1073.1012.1212.12
LouisvilleBE4.874.8787.1087.103.613.61
GeorgetownBE4.804.8082.1482.143.093.09
VillanovaBE3.553.5560.0060.000.710.71
Seton HallBE3.483.4848.3948.39-0.11-0.11
ProvidenceBE3.463.4658.6258.620.600.60
PittsburghBE3.443.4476.6776.671.831.83
Notre DameBE2.162.1675.7675.761.111.11
CincinnatiBE2.132.1368.7568.750.800.80
RutgersBE2.122.1250.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE2.122.1273.3373.330.990.99
St. John'sBE2.102.1053.3353.330.140.14
South FloridaBE2.102.1040.0040.00-0.42-0.42
DePaulBE2.032.0335.4835.48-0.59-0.59
ConnecticutBE2.012.0165.5265.520.620.62
WagnerNEC1.591.5963.3363.330.430.43
TempleA101.571.5770.9770.970.660.66
MonmouthNEC1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
DetroitHorz1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
Central ConnecticutNEC1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Alcorn St.SWAC1.521.5229.0329.03-0.64-0.64
ColgatePat1.501.5035.4835.48-0.43-0.43
CanisiusMAAC1.501.5060.0060.000.300.30
PrincetonIvy1.471.4761.5461.540.340.34
ArkansasSEC1.451.4561.2961.290.330.33
Eastern MichiganMAC1.431.4343.3343.33-0.19-0.19
Long Beach St.BW1.431.4358.6258.620.250.25
San Diego St.MWC1.431.4368.9768.970.540.54
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Long IslandNEC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.180.1848.0048.00-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
BryantNEC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
St. Peter'sMAAC0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
BrownIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacNEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
KentuckySEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
LehighPat0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
DukeACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
SamfordSC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.077.147.14-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0710.0010.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Arizona St.P120.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
ArmyPat0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.040.040.000.00-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
KansasB120.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00