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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:43.7
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:19
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-79.30.09%
23-813.10.76%
22-918.23.93%
21-1025.211.37%
20-1133.720.69%
19-1242.825.67%
18-1352.220.87%
17-1462.411.56%
16-1574.74.13%
15-1689.10.82%
14-17107.70.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cornell (278.9)IvyH77-45W100%0.0
11-14Iona (82.3)MAACH71-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
11-20Oakland (137.7)HorzH74-50W100%0.0
11-22Toledo (70.7)MACH72-64W100%0.0
11-27Maryland (43.3)B10H72-70W100%0.0
12-2Kansas (5.9)B12N60-76L0%0.0
12-5Connecticut (102.7)AmerN63-72W100%0.0
12-9Colgate (219.6)PatH72-58W100%0.0
12-16Georgetown (143.2)BEA79-86W100%0.0
12-19Buffalo (34.0)MACH81-74W100%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (50.3)A10H57-60L0%0.0
12-27Eastern Michigan (177.4)MACH62-47W100%0.0
12-31Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCH68-56W100%0.0
1-3Wake Forest (129.1)ACCA73-67L0%0.0
1-6Notre Dame (57.5)ACCH49-51L0%0.0
1-9Virginia (4.4)ACCA68-61L0%0.0
1-13Florida St. (40.6)ACCA101-90L0%0.0
1-16Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCH59-45W100%0.0
1-24Boston College (97.8)ACCH0-076%7.8
1-27Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCA0-079%9.0
1-31Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCA0-060%2.8
2-3Virginia (4.4)ACCH0-031%-5.5
2-5Louisville (24.8)ACCA0-028%-6.5
2-11Wake Forest (129.1)ACCH0-075%7.4
2-14North Carolina St. (96.3)ACCH0-070%5.8
2-17Miami FL (28.3)ACCA0-029%-6.1
2-21North Carolina (5.3)ACCH0-035%-4.4
2-24Duke (3.1)ACCA0-010%-14.2
2-28Boston College (97.8)ACCA0-055%1.4
3-3Clemson (14.2)ACCH0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC26.3626.0461.6456.526.143.39
Boston CollegeACC0.293.7668.4256.480.110.49
PittsburghACC2.703.7342.1132.28-0.43-1.32
VirginiaACC2.703.7394.1285.512.382.65
Wake ForestACC2.703.7341.1839.61-0.48-0.77
Georgia TechACC0.282.2252.6343.220.01-0.30
LouisvilleACC0.272.2277.7869.260.150.86
DukeACC0.272.2289.4785.030.221.56
Miami FLACC0.142.2276.4768.950.070.84
North Carolina St.ACC0.222.2068.4258.700.080.38
Virginia TechACC2.912.1972.2259.701.290.43
Florida St.ACC2.702.1972.2268.561.200.81
ClemsonACC0.142.1984.2174.080.091.06
Notre DameACC2.632.1961.1159.710.580.43
North CarolinaACC0.282.1780.0075.370.171.10
ToledoMAC2.991.8170.5970.021.230.72
OaklandHorz3.021.7565.0067.340.910.61
Eastern MichiganMAC2.761.7550.0048.780.00-0.04
ColgatePat2.791.7252.9452.930.160.10
Texas SouthernSWAC2.841.7222.2245.73-1.58-0.15
BuffaloMAC2.781.7076.4777.491.470.93
KansasB122.841.6983.3379.071.890.98
CornellIvy2.781.6735.7134.70-0.79-0.51
St. BonaventureA102.771.6764.7167.620.810.59
ConnecticutAmer2.701.6455.5648.970.30-0.03
MarylandB102.701.6473.6867.571.280.58
GeorgetownBE2.631.6172.2256.021.170.19
IonaMAAC2.631.6166.6769.190.880.62
OhioMAC0.300.2247.0648.44-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.210.1952.9452.230.010.01
Michigan St.B100.270.1885.0083.180.190.12
ColumbiaIvy0.230.1720.0032.26-0.14-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1741.1839.13-0.03-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.230.1761.1158.750.050.03
LehighPat0.210.1638.8944.75-0.05-0.02
RichmondA100.140.1631.5834.35-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.210.1684.2178.170.140.09
YaleIvy0.140.1441.1847.51-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.1421.4326.21-0.04-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1458.8249.760.02-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.1447.0641.45-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1462.5058.700.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.300.1457.1453.220.040.01
AkronMAC0.230.1447.0644.91-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.150.1470.0058.100.060.02
NavyPat0.140.1460.0055.160.030.01
IndianaB100.160.1457.8950.680.020.00
Rhode IslandA100.220.1383.3381.410.140.08
DavidsonA100.150.1358.8261.440.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.210.1327.7840.88-0.09-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1368.7567.640.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.1338.8943.43-0.06-0.02
Penn St.B100.130.1361.9055.770.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.1372.2268.920.030.05
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1368.4254.090.050.01
ArmyPat0.070.1161.1160.530.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.1144.4444.86-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1150.0053.160.000.01
BucknellPat0.140.1161.9068.010.030.04
St. John'sBE0.210.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1170.0060.460.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.1115.7920.92-0.19-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.220.1160.0060.340.040.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.1142.1144.97-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.140.1130.0031.69-0.06-0.04
La SalleA100.000.1140.0042.720.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.140.1180.9576.520.080.06
NebraskaB100.070.1066.6759.780.020.02
TCUB120.210.1073.6865.590.100.03
DetroitHorz0.210.1021.0525.98-0.12-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.140.1068.4269.240.050.04
Texas TechB120.070.1078.9571.810.040.05
PennIvy0.160.0964.7162.780.050.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0952.9460.270.010.02
LafayettePat0.160.0922.2227.51-0.09-0.04
DelawareCAA0.230.0847.3743.04-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.140.0826.3230.43-0.07-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.140.0822.2228.67-0.08-0.04
NJITASun0.220.0838.8942.60-0.05-0.01
ButlerBE0.140.0866.6763.070.050.02
DePaulBE0.140.0842.1134.32-0.02-0.03
AlbanyAE0.140.0870.0068.050.060.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0875.0067.890.030.03
VillanovaBE0.140.0894.7490.310.120.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0855.5656.710.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.0827.7838.13-0.06-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.140.0847.3744.27-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0831.5830.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.0850.0051.650.000.00
VCUA100.070.0860.0059.690.010.02
WisconsinB100.070.0850.0046.260.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0810.5316.75-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.089.5217.94-0.11-0.05
MaineAE0.070.0810.5314.86-0.05-0.06
FloridaSEC0.070.0873.6871.550.030.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0878.9572.990.040.04
MichiganB100.070.0875.0070.270.030.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0855.0050.370.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0890.4888.380.050.06
Saint LouisA100.070.0847.3746.91-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0889.4785.520.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.0820.0023.36-0.08-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.0866.6773.240.040.04
TempleAmer0.000.0852.6351.730.000.00
TulaneAmer0.140.0863.1657.900.040.01
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0878.9577.360.080.04
BaylorB120.140.0861.1156.090.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0836.8444.12-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.140.0873.6867.950.070.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0865.0058.490.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0827.7831.670.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0827.7840.97-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.070.0863.1657.620.020.01
TowsonCAA0.130.0863.1666.000.030.02
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0637.5046.630.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.160.0644.4442.74-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.160.0663.1663.180.040.02
HowardMEAC0.160.0610.5327.31-0.12-0.03
AmericanPat0.070.0626.3228.14-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.160.0689.4777.030.120.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0635.0026.14-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0621.0521.99-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.140.0658.8258.360.020.01
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.690.030.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.530.030.01
XavierBE0.000.0685.7180.080.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0533.3333.80-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0544.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4445.98-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0555.0049.070.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0538.8944.14-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.0523.5332.62-0.07-0.02
FordhamA100.140.0531.5829.06-0.05-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0541.1843.41-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0566.6765.360.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0520.0041.76-0.04-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0552.9457.320.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0547.3748.170.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0563.6457.640.020.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0565.0065.370.020.02
RutgersB100.070.0557.8947.140.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0527.7834.50-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0536.8435.55-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0520.0028.72-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.050.003.12-0.13-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0510.0019.620.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0545.0041.350.00-0.01
IowaB100.140.0547.6244.03-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0557.1460.400.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0572.2272.970.060.02
Stony BrookAE0.140.0538.8946.68-0.03-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0568.4263.980.030.01
The CitadelSC0.140.0518.7518.40-0.09-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0538.8935.350.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0516.6724.290.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0512.5025.47-0.05-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0580.0078.980.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0568.4264.200.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0530.0036.480.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.059.5217.080.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0552.3848.520.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0542.1132.48-0.01-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0525.0027.94-0.03-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0552.6346.880.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0542.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0561.1147.260.02-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.0527.7829.840.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0573.6862.720.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0545.0047.05-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.65-0.07-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0525.0028.02-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0547.0652.510.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.900.000.02
OregonP120.140.0565.0063.830.040.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0521.0539.47-0.04-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0529.4127.74-0.03-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0530.0033.490.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0552.9459.250.000.01
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.370.010.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0555.0053.290.010.00
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.880.030.01
WashingtonP120.140.0570.0061.440.060.01
WoffordSC0.000.0568.7563.620.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.50-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.009.15-0.07-0.04
High PointBSth0.070.0540.0047.86-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0528.5731.27-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0570.5973.140.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0570.5969.610.030.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0317.6517.23-0.06-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0329.4130.67-0.04-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0327.7831.12-0.04-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0340.0043.34-0.02-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7563.960.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.8959.470.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.350.000.02
LSUSEC0.070.0361.1153.160.020.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.640.030.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0383.3384.230.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0327.7832.660.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.900.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.040.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.46-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.130.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0055.650.000.00
VermontAE0.070.0373.6877.120.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.440.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.230.040.01
ElonCAA0.000.0352.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0352.6351.700.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0366.6768.500.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.930.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0370.0071.230.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.37-0.06-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0327.7827.300.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0361.1160.790.020.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0070.630.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.360.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0352.6350.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0365.0062.040.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0321.0524.710.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0345.0045.020.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0024.170.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00