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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:45.7
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:212
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-31.00.01%
27-42.60.05%
26-55.40.21%
25-67.60.67%
24-711.42.34%
23-816.04.99%
22-921.48.95%
21-1028.413.08%
20-1135.916.72%
19-1244.717.53%
18-1355.914.59%
17-1468.49.86%
16-1581.86.10%
15-1698.23.15%
14-17114.71.15%
13-18134.80.48%
12-19152.10.09%
11-20149.00.01%
10-21189.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Cornell (281.3)IvyH77-45W100%0.0
11-14Iona (89.3)MAACH71-62W100%0.0
11-18Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
11-20Oakland (109.5)HorzH0-082%11.1
11-22Toledo (81.7)MACH0-082%11.2
11-27Maryland (25.7)B10H0-051%0.4
12-2Kansas (4.9)B12N0-018%-10.8
12-5Connecticut (68.1)AmerN0-063%3.9
12-9Colgate (214.3)PatH0-094%18.6
12-16Georgetown (126.6)BEA0-053%0.8
12-19Buffalo (79.2)MACH0-082%10.9
12-22St. Bonaventure (90.6)A10H0-078%9.3
12-27Eastern Michigan (127.9)MACH0-088%14.0
12-31Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCH0-056%1.9
1-3Wake Forest (166.4)ACCA0-066%4.8
1-6Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH0-044%-1.9
1-9Virginia (15.8)ACCA0-023%-8.8
1-13Florida St. (40.2)ACCA0-032%-5.6
1-16Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCH0-086%13.1
1-24Boston College (152.8)ACCH0-080%10.0
1-27Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCA0-072%7.1
1-31Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-047%-0.9
2-3Virginia (15.8)ACCH0-041%-2.8
2-5Louisville (28.0)ACCA0-031%-5.9
2-11Wake Forest (166.4)ACCH0-082%10.8
2-14North Carolina St. (131.2)ACCH0-073%7.2
2-17Miami FL (24.3)ACCA0-025%-8.0
2-21North Carolina (9.5)ACCH0-034%-5.0
2-24Duke (6.8)ACCA0-016%-12.0
2-28Boston College (152.8)ACCA0-063%4.0
3-3Clemson (64.3)ACCH0-067%5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC31.9426.07100.0057.4831.943.90
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7875.0046.480.00-0.27
PittsburghACC0.003.7533.3335.550.00-1.08
Wake ForestACC0.003.7425.0035.630.00-1.08
VirginiaACC0.003.74100.0074.600.001.84
Georgia TechACC0.002.250.0057.660.000.34
LouisvilleACC0.002.24100.0066.930.000.76
DukeACC0.002.24100.0083.560.001.50
Miami FLACC0.002.24100.0074.500.001.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.22100.0055.660.000.25
Virginia TechACC0.002.2275.0062.550.000.56
Florida St.ACC0.002.21100.0068.210.000.81
ClemsonACC0.002.21100.0055.760.000.25
Notre DameACC0.002.21100.0074.380.001.08
North CarolinaACC0.002.19100.0078.580.001.25
ToledoMAC0.001.81100.0065.730.000.57
OaklandHorz0.001.7566.6767.230.000.60
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.75100.0054.860.000.17
ColgatePat2.781.7250.0051.940.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC16.671.720.0052.04-16.670.07
BuffaloMAC0.001.70100.0062.600.000.43
KansasB120.001.69100.0082.960.001.12
St. BonaventureA100.001.6750.0055.650.000.19
CornellIvy16.671.6750.0036.020.00-0.47
ConnecticutAmer0.001.64100.0057.050.000.23
MarylandB100.001.64100.0072.570.000.74
GeorgetownBE0.001.61100.0058.450.000.27
IonaMAAC16.671.6133.3361.91-5.560.38
OhioMAC0.000.2233.3348.480.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2033.3353.190.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1733.3345.540.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.17100.0050.450.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1733.3350.350.000.00
LehighPat0.000.1766.6751.580.000.01
RichmondA100.000.170.0030.280.00-0.07
West VirginiaB120.000.1666.6771.200.000.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1466.6748.040.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.14100.0039.920.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1450.0051.840.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.1425.0054.930.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.140.0033.700.00-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.140.0048.610.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.14100.0060.370.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.14100.0047.670.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.14100.0070.080.000.06
IndianaB100.000.1433.3341.220.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.1450.0052.870.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1466.6759.740.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.140.0056.560.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1450.0077.820.000.08
Penn St.B100.000.14100.0060.400.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.140.0044.500.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.11100.0066.010.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.110.0047.690.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.1150.0053.620.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.110.0061.460.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1133.3346.330.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0054.590.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.110.0037.060.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1125.0047.800.00-0.00
Ohio St.B102.080.11100.0059.872.080.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.11100.0048.350.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0064.570.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6740.070.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.11100.0062.630.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.100.0029.290.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.100.0041.210.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.090.0051.010.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0950.0048.680.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.090.0021.970.00-0.05
PennIvy0.000.0933.3349.350.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.09100.0048.790.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0933.3333.210.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0950.0073.230.000.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6745.880.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.080.0038.210.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0866.6759.540.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0082.350.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.0833.3331.290.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0866.6766.590.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0866.6753.390.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0875.0052.360.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.08100.0059.240.000.02
MichiganB100.000.08100.0061.710.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0825.0032.490.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0082.960.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.0866.6766.970.000.03
AlbanyAE2.080.08100.0072.512.080.04
TulaneAmer0.000.08100.0054.140.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.080.0035.760.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0022.840.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0028.770.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0850.0050.670.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0866.6748.280.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0055.040.000.01
PurdueB100.000.08100.0085.360.000.06
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0067.950.000.03
MaineAE0.000.080.0013.450.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0034.040.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0022.610.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz2.080.08100.0070.962.080.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0044.630.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0850.0066.710.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3333.580.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.08100.0059.540.000.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0061.110.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.0032.770.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0875.0071.830.000.03
TCUB120.000.08100.0061.150.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3354.200.000.01
BinghamtonAE2.780.0625.0038.08-1.39-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0675.0051.210.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0052.900.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.060.0044.950.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3360.630.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0025.140.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.000.06100.0082.290.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.007.670.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.050.0018.400.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0575.0048.930.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.05100.0071.010.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0533.3335.310.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.05100.0080.230.000.03
RutgersB100.000.05100.0046.880.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.050.0030.230.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.05100.0058.250.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0550.0036.640.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.05100.0076.200.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.050.0016.000.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3359.680.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0049.860.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.050.0039.740.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0525.0040.490.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.050.0021.590.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0533.3326.430.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0533.3347.540.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0023.170.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0550.0060.130.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.050.0037.310.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0533.3350.220.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0533.3330.460.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.050.0026.180.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0037.120.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.910.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.050.0044.830.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0550.0048.410.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0550.0038.730.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.050.0032.200.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.05100.0060.010.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0018.970.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.05100.0060.070.000.01
TexasB120.000.05100.0063.830.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.050.0027.250.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.05100.0062.930.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0033.850.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.030.0029.710.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky2.080.0366.6766.020.690.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
GonzagaWCC2.080.03100.0086.182.080.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
Washington St.P122.080.03100.0041.782.08-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.360.000.00