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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:69.0
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:38
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1369.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH89-42W100%0.0
11-16Hampton (251.0)MEACH65-47W100%0.0
11-20California (95.0)P12N73-59L0%0.0
11-21Iowa (43.0)B10N66-63W100%0.0
11-25Loyola MD (270.0)PatH70-37W100%0.0
11-28Holy Cross (200.0)PatH72-48W100%0.0
12-2Michigan (81.0)B10A68-65L0%0.0
12-6St. John's (44.0)BEH57-69L0%0.0
12-14Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH71-69W100%0.0
12-20Villanova (3.0)BEA82-77L0%0.0
12-22Colgate (194.0)PatH78-43W100%0.0
12-28Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH85-67W100%0.0
12-31Cornell (227.0)IvyH61-44W100%0.0
1-3Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA66-68W100%0.0
1-7Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA45-46W100%0.0
1-11Florida St. (110.0)ACCH70-57W100%0.0
1-13Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH86-83W100%0.0
1-17Clemson (106.0)ACCA66-53L0%0.0
1-20Boston College (165.0)ACCH69-61W100%0.0
1-24Miami FL (65.0)ACCH62-66L0%0.0
1-26North Carolina (11.0)ACCA93-83L0%0.0
2-3Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCH72-70W100%0.0
2-7Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA83-77L0%0.0
2-11Boston College (165.0)ACCA56-70W100%0.0
2-14Duke (6.0)ACCH72-80L0%0.0
2-18Louisville (21.0)ACCH69-59W100%0.0
2-21Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH61-65L0%0.0
2-24Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA60-65W100%0.0
2-28Duke (6.0)ACCA73-54L0%0.0
3-2Virginia (7.0)ACCH47-59L0%0.0
3-7North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA71-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC25.9825.9854.1454.142.152.15
PittsburghACC3.773.7753.3353.330.250.25
DukeACC3.773.7787.1087.102.802.80
Boston CollegeACC3.773.7743.3343.33-0.50-0.50
Virginia TechACC3.753.7535.4835.48-1.09-1.09
North CarolinaACC2.312.3167.6567.650.820.82
Notre DameACC2.282.2887.8887.881.731.73
North Carolina St.ACC2.262.2659.3859.380.420.42
Miami FLACC2.262.2662.5062.500.560.56
Florida St.ACC2.242.2453.1253.120.140.14
Wake ForestACC2.212.2141.9441.94-0.36-0.36
LouisvilleACC2.212.2177.4277.421.211.21
VirginiaACC2.212.2190.3290.321.781.78
Georgia TechACC2.182.1840.0040.00-0.44-0.44
ClemsonACC2.162.1650.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat1.791.7946.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Loyola MDPat1.771.7737.9337.93-0.43-0.43
ColgatePat1.751.7548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE1.741.7463.3363.330.460.46
VillanovaBE1.691.6993.9493.941.491.49
IowaB101.691.6967.7467.740.600.60
CornellIvy1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Long Beach St.BW1.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
MichiganB101.661.6646.6746.67-0.11-0.11
CaliforniaP121.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
HamptonMEAC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
Louisiana TechCUSA1.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
ProvidenceBE0.270.2766.6766.670.090.09
BucknellPat0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
AmericanPat0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
NavyPat0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
LehighPat0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
ButlerBE0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Ohio St.B100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
WisconsinB100.180.1891.1891.180.140.14
XavierBE0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
HarvardIvy0.160.1674.0774.070.080.08
Penn St.B100.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
MinnesotaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Michigan St.B100.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
MarquetteBE0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
HawaiiBW0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
NorthwesternB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.130.1356.0056.000.020.02
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.130.1316.6716.67-0.08-0.08
IndianaB100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00