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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Syracuse

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:2.1
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:13
Current Record:23-1
Expected Record:29-2
Current Conf Record:10-1
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:44.64%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.017.38%
29-21.336.92%
28-32.329.58%
27-44.112.40%
26-56.73.31%
25-69.80.38%
24-713.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Fordham (243.2)A10H78-53W100%0.0
11-14Manhattan (115.3)MAACH92-56W100%0.0
11-15Albany (208.3)AEH98-74W100%0.0
11-19Colgate (296.0)PatH92-47W100%0.0
11-23Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCN69-58W100%0.0
11-25Stanford (89.9)P12N69-63W100%0.0
11-29Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACH84-48W100%0.0
12-2Florida (14.9)SECH72-68W100%0.0
12-6Marshall (61.3)CUSAH62-56W100%0.0
12-10George Washington (196.4)A10H85-50W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCA72-88W100%0.0
12-20Bucknell (71.1)PatH80-61W100%0.0
12-22Tulane (174.9)CUSAH80-61W100%0.0
12-28Seton Hall (53.1)BEH75-49W100%0.0
1-1DePaul (187.2)BEA68-87W100%0.0
1-4Providence (146.8)BEA73-87W100%0.0
1-7Marquette (15.5)BEH73-66W100%0.0
1-11Villanova (98.5)BEA66-79W100%0.0
1-14Providence (146.8)BEH78-55W100%0.0
1-16Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH71-63W100%0.0
1-21Notre Dame (66.5)BEA67-58L0%0.0
1-23Cincinnati (89.8)BEA53-60W100%0.0
1-28West Virginia (31.4)BEH63-61W100%0.0
2-4St. John's (151.1)BEA70-95W100%0.0
2-8Georgetown (13.9)BEH0-076%7.5
2-11Connecticut (27.1)BEH0-085%11.3
2-13Louisville (25.3)BEA0-062%3.5
2-19Rutgers (141.7)BEA0-085%11.3
2-22South Florida (96.1)BEH0-096%18.8
2-25Connecticut (27.1)BEA0-066%4.6
3-3Louisville (25.3)BEH0-082%10.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseBE26.1825.9897.0092.5124.6122.09
ProvidenceBE4.353.7161.9053.741.030.28
LouisvilleBE0.413.7078.2675.770.231.91
ConnecticutBE0.323.7068.1866.820.121.25
PittsburghBE2.442.1963.6460.100.670.44
St. John'sBE2.452.1745.4541.62-0.22-0.36
CincinnatiBE2.412.1772.7367.661.090.77
West VirginiaBE2.362.1768.1867.350.860.75
Seton HallBE2.402.1768.1865.930.870.69
Notre DameBE2.262.1763.6461.410.620.49
RutgersBE0.412.1750.0047.870.00-0.09
DePaulBE2.312.1752.3844.310.11-0.25
South FloridaBE0.362.1754.5550.130.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.362.1680.9579.340.221.27
MarquetteBE2.452.1482.6178.521.601.22
VillanovaBE2.402.1447.6247.67-0.11-0.10
ColgatePat2.261.7531.8230.55-0.82-0.68
FordhamA102.261.7242.8635.74-0.32-0.49
MarshallCUSA2.221.6961.9061.850.530.40
BucknellPat2.131.6777.2777.681.160.92
AlbanyAE2.171.6762.5062.440.540.41
Eastern MichiganMAC2.171.6742.8639.71-0.31-0.34
North Carolina St.ACC2.131.6773.9166.571.020.55
Virginia TechACC2.131.6759.0957.040.390.23
George WashingtonA102.131.6436.3633.19-0.58-0.55
ManhattanMAAC2.131.6470.8371.370.890.70
TulaneCUSA2.131.6465.0060.760.640.35
FloridaSEC2.081.6486.3680.221.520.99
StanfordP122.131.6472.7370.650.970.68
Holy CrossPat0.180.2240.9142.05-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.050.1969.5771.510.020.08
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1869.5765.870.070.06
AmericanPat0.180.1765.2263.790.060.05
NavyPat0.180.179.5213.19-0.15-0.12
LehighPat0.180.1773.9174.910.090.08
La SalleA100.180.1670.8368.820.080.06
BinghamtonAE0.220.160.004.02-0.22-0.15
Rhode IslandA100.230.1620.8320.60-0.13-0.09
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1654.5554.300.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.1672.7371.710.040.07
Boston CollegeACC0.220.1630.4326.44-0.09-0.07
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1471.4366.600.040.05
UABCUSA0.190.1440.9139.82-0.03-0.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.130.1433.3338.38-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.140.1450.0048.490.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.140.1339.1342.12-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.170.1334.7833.43-0.05-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.180.1360.0059.060.040.02
DartmouthIvy0.180.1314.2917.17-0.13-0.09
MonmouthNEC0.180.1328.0028.91-0.08-0.06
New HampshireAE0.180.1335.0038.58-0.05-0.03
MaineAE0.090.1350.0049.730.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.1345.4544.66-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.138.7012.13-0.11-0.10
KentuckySEC0.050.1395.8392.570.040.11
Miami FLACC0.090.1365.0060.020.030.03
RiderMAAC0.170.1337.5038.52-0.04-0.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.1185.7182.180.070.07
ArmyPat0.140.1140.9141.72-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.090.1143.4842.95-0.01-0.02
TempleA100.090.1177.2775.060.050.05
HarvardIvy0.090.1190.4887.910.070.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1162.5062.490.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.1134.7835.50-0.01-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1155.0054.800.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.130.1148.0051.88-0.010.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.130.1177.2773.450.070.05
OhioMAC0.050.1181.8277.200.030.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1156.5255.950.020.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1145.4545.55-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1045.4540.70-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.180.1047.8343.66-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.170.1027.2723.80-0.08-0.05
DukeACC0.090.1086.3683.090.070.07
MarylandACC0.180.1059.0950.820.030.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.130.1013.6416.35-0.09-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1040.9139.56-0.03-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1045.4541.20-0.01-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.050.0947.6244.63-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.150.0947.6246.46-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0938.1037.86-0.01-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.0943.4843.31-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.100.0960.8759.050.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.000.0844.4441.71-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0834.7838.42-0.04-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.140.0819.0524.61-0.09-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0821.7422.76-0.08-0.04
CharlotteA100.090.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0860.8760.960.010.02
St. LouisA100.090.0877.2777.670.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.140.0845.0046.13-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.140.0868.1867.910.050.03
DuquesneA100.050.0859.0956.350.010.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0869.5761.310.050.02
XavierA100.140.0865.2263.740.040.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0875.0074.610.050.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.085.267.30-0.08-0.07
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0880.0078.060.050.05
George MasonCAA0.130.0876.0072.500.070.04
IonaMAAC0.130.0879.1780.100.080.05
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0845.4546.99-0.01-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0847.3752.87-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0869.5765.150.000.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0856.5248.810.01-0.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.040.0868.1867.640.020.03
UCLAP120.050.0854.5556.790.000.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0882.6184.570.030.06
ArizonaP120.140.0866.6768.550.050.03
ButlerHorz0.050.0850.0050.800.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0835.2939.85-0.04-0.02
DetroitHorz0.140.0847.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0819.0522.37-0.06-0.04
Kansas St.B120.140.0872.7368.280.060.03
MississippiSEC0.140.0863.6456.710.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.0850.0058.160.000.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.130.0854.5556.840.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.090.0821.7424.58-0.05-0.04
VermontAE0.040.0860.0062.490.010.02
BryantNEC0.140.088.3310.86-0.11-0.06
ClemsonACC0.050.0850.0048.360.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0871.4373.350.020.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0859.0957.280.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0868.1869.680.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.0886.9683.160.070.05
Stony BrookAE0.080.0866.6768.050.030.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0881.8276.800.060.04
KansasB120.000.0678.2678.390.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0620.0019.96-0.06-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0633.3333.82-0.03-0.02
BelmontASun0.090.0669.5773.280.040.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0568.1869.100.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0516.6723.02-0.06-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0519.0521.29-0.06-0.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0573.9168.580.040.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0530.0037.30-0.04-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0536.8441.45-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0536.3638.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0532.0035.39-0.03-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0539.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0555.0054.480.010.00
WisconsinB100.090.0575.0073.970.040.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0530.4331.43-0.04-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0555.0057.410.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0547.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0528.5734.20-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0566.6762.650.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0542.1149.81-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0569.5764.530.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0563.6463.160.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0528.5726.30-0.04-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0538.1040.81-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0518.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0540.9142.96-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0525.0025.13-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0517.3924.41-0.06-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.090.054.769.95-0.08-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0566.6760.800.030.01
Fresno St.WAC0.090.0539.1344.52-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0571.4369.050.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.090.0530.0034.15-0.04-0.02
MissouriB120.090.0591.3087.180.080.04
RadfordBSth0.090.058.7013.10-0.08-0.04
WashingtonP120.090.0569.5766.540.030.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.040.0535.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0556.5257.720.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0572.2263.190.040.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0537.5038.33-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0556.0055.650.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0517.3919.81-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0558.3359.980.000.01
HartfordAE0.080.0517.3920.97-0.05-0.03
IndianaB100.090.0575.0075.780.040.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0573.9168.430.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0517.3922.00-0.06-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0561.9067.230.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0578.2672.340.050.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0526.0928.60-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0537.5041.54-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0545.8346.68-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0562.5061.500.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.054.359.66-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MB120.090.0552.3846.150.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.000.0534.7834.48-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0541.6740.61-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0317.6527.10-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0318.1822.22-0.00-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0352.3857.860.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0324.0024.86-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0381.8280.430.000.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0336.3639.72-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0340.0041.30-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.020.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
Old DominionCAA0.000.0360.0058.290.000.00
PacificBW0.050.0335.0037.47-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0341.6738.67-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.010.01
Seattleind0.050.0323.5333.28-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.850.040.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.000.020.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
ElonSC0.040.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5062.060.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.200.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.030.02
OklahomaB120.050.0359.0954.700.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0326.3229.79-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
TexasB120.040.0360.8761.370.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.040.034.005.26-0.04-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0334.7837.24-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.03-0.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01