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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:45.7
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:34
Current Record:17-8
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-819.40.46%
22-924.25.27%
21-1031.221.96%
20-1143.436.92%
19-1257.526.76%
18-1369.27.83%
17-1481.60.79%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lehigh (196.7)PatH57-47W100%0.0
11-17St. Bonaventure (38.9)A10H79-66W100%0.0
11-21Elon (145.4)CAAH66-55W100%0.0
11-25Charlotte (228.9)CUSAN83-70W100%0.0
11-26Connecticut (38.6)AmerN79-76W100%0.0
11-27Texas A&M (32.5)SECN67-74W100%0.0
12-2Wisconsin (48.7)B10H58-66L0%0.0
12-5Georgetown (75.5)BEA79-72L0%0.0
12-8Colgate (217.9)PatH78-51W100%0.0
12-13St. John's (231.1)BEA84-72L0%0.0
12-19Cornell (222.9)IvyH67-46W100%0.0
12-22Montana St. (253.3)BSkyH82-60W100%0.0
12-27Texas Southern (190.7)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
12-30Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
1-2Miami FL (10.5)ACCA64-51L0%0.0
1-5Clemson (100.9)ACCH73-74L0%0.0
1-9North Carolina (10.4)ACCH73-84L0%0.0
1-13Boston College (233.2)ACCH62-40W100%0.0
1-16Wake Forest (134.6)ACCA55-83W100%0.0
1-18Duke (15.1)ACCA62-64W100%0.0
1-24Virginia (6.0)ACCA73-65L0%0.0
1-28Notre Dame (24.7)ACCH81-66W100%0.0
1-30Georgia Tech (95.1)ACCH60-57W100%0.0
2-2Virginia Tech (131.0)ACCH68-60W100%0.0
2-11Florida St. (51.8)ACCH85-72W100%0.0
2-14Boston College (233.2)ACCA0-085%11.1
2-17Louisville (21.2)ACCA0-015%-11.1
2-20Pittsburgh (47.2)ACCH0-056%1.7
2-27North Carolina St. (114.2)ACCH0-072%6.5
2-29North Carolina (10.4)ACCA0-019%-9.4
3-5Florida St. (51.8)ACCA0-040%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC26.0326.0564.3662.407.486.46
Boston CollegeACC2.373.7630.4327.92-0.93-1.66
PittsburghACC2.373.7671.4367.361.021.30
North CarolinaACC2.333.7682.6177.521.522.07
Florida St.ACC2.333.7369.5765.670.911.17
Georgia TechACC2.462.2654.1752.190.200.10
DukeACC2.402.2579.1775.531.401.15
ClemsonACC2.502.2558.3358.450.420.38
Miami FLACC2.412.2281.8276.791.531.19
North Carolina St.ACC0.452.2252.0050.340.020.01
Virginia TechACC2.372.2054.1750.600.200.03
LouisvilleACC0.452.2076.0073.550.231.04
VirginiaACC2.502.2079.1776.431.461.16
Notre DameACC2.452.2075.0072.601.230.99
Wake ForestACC2.372.1741.6740.50-0.39-0.41
GeorgetownBE2.241.7752.0050.080.090.00
ColgatePat2.131.7347.8348.86-0.09-0.04
CornellIvy2.131.7240.0038.18-0.43-0.41
LehighPat2.081.7040.9144.36-0.38-0.19
CharlotteCUSA2.121.6941.6744.59-0.35-0.18
ElonCAA2.081.6650.0050.050.000.00
St. John'sBE2.081.6620.8321.06-1.21-0.96
Texas SouthernSWAC2.041.6450.0057.200.000.24
ConnecticutAmer2.041.6475.0072.981.020.75
WisconsinB102.041.6462.5058.670.510.28
Montana St.BSky2.001.6147.8346.63-0.09-0.11
St. BonaventureA102.001.6177.2774.671.090.80
Texas A&MSEC2.001.6175.0075.391.000.82
BucknellPat0.210.1750.0052.720.000.01
DavidsonA100.170.1659.0955.710.030.02
VCUA100.210.1672.0071.480.090.07
DePaulBE0.120.1633.3333.86-0.04-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1641.6741.41-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.240.1680.0075.820.140.08
VillanovaBE0.200.1688.0086.620.150.12
ProvidenceBE0.160.1673.0870.170.070.06
MarylandB100.200.1684.0080.600.140.10
LafayettePat0.130.1520.0020.81-0.08-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.170.1432.0033.46-0.06-0.05
DuquesneA100.130.1460.8756.210.030.02
HofstraCAA0.170.1468.0067.350.060.05
PurdueB100.130.1476.9275.980.070.07
FordhamA100.170.1450.0050.420.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.170.1337.5037.69-0.04-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1326.0928.44-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.160.1368.0066.750.060.04
CreightonBE0.160.1365.3863.470.050.04
XavierBE0.160.1388.0084.240.120.09
MichiganB100.120.1372.0068.710.050.05
MarquetteBE0.160.1361.5456.600.040.02
Michigan St.B100.080.1380.0081.510.050.08
TempleAmer0.160.1365.2262.390.050.03
TulaneAmer0.160.1338.4637.32-0.04-0.03
AmericanPat0.170.1228.0030.05-0.07-0.05
ArmyPat0.130.1256.0055.430.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1257.6958.190.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1241.6739.59-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.130.1265.3865.340.040.04
YaleIvy0.130.1176.1976.290.070.06
HarvardIvy0.090.1136.3638.01-0.02-0.03
SienaMAAC0.170.1166.6766.950.060.04
NortheasternCAA0.120.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.1165.2264.480.020.03
DelawareCAA0.080.1124.0024.18-0.04-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1131.8236.20-0.04-0.03
New HampshireAE0.120.1159.0956.880.020.01
FloridaSEC0.130.1164.0062.910.040.03
IowaB100.080.1179.1778.810.050.06
RutgersB100.160.1120.8319.90-0.09-0.06
Seton HallBE0.080.1170.8368.070.030.04
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1160.0060.860.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1118.1825.82-0.08-0.05
LSUSEC0.120.1064.0061.350.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.1040.0043.52-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.120.1048.0048.31-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.160.1048.0050.99-0.010.00
NorthwesternB100.120.1065.3862.780.040.03
TexasB120.120.1064.0061.080.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.140.0965.2264.150.040.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0975.0077.280.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.130.0924.0026.42-0.07-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0942.3144.54-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.090.0928.5728.84-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.130.0836.0035.97-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0856.5256.100.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0880.7781.920.080.05
UMBCAE0.120.0823.0825.88-0.07-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0862.5060.760.030.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.4842.31-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.130.0854.1754.540.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0828.0031.38-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0842.8646.51-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0884.0081.460.060.05
Saint LouisA100.040.0833.3331.88-0.01-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.0878.2675.550.070.04
OhioMAC0.090.0865.2264.670.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.0872.7371.580.050.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.0862.5063.540.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.120.0862.5059.270.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0823.0825.64-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.0026.16-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2917.11-0.06-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.0813.0418.03-0.09-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.120.0883.3378.690.080.05
UTSACUSA0.080.0812.5012.74-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0860.8757.660.030.01
IllinoisB100.080.0844.0043.45-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.0861.5455.940.030.01
UCLAP120.080.0854.1753.010.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0824.0027.56-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0812.0012.46-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.080.0856.0054.680.010.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0876.0074.450.020.04
MaineAE0.080.0832.0031.16-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.040.0836.0032.69-0.01-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0848.0045.86-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0843.4844.22-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0633.3332.89-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0640.0039.62-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0673.0873.780.040.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0634.7836.55-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0644.4447.27-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0650.0050.520.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0682.6183.030.050.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0623.8129.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.040.0687.5083.680.030.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.8346.26-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.040.0612.5015.98-0.03-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0669.2369.940.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0662.5059.800.010.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0661.9062.900.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0654.1755.060.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.069.0911.96-0.07-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0626.0925.94-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.080.0628.5735.58-0.04-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0638.1043.56-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0622.7322.58-0.05-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0613.6414.63-0.06-0.04
TowsonCAA0.040.0664.0060.170.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0634.7836.09-0.01-0.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0641.6741.64-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0572.0070.430.040.02
La SalleA100.040.0518.1820.09-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0523.0823.86-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.080.0558.3356.260.010.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0541.6743.11-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0528.0028.34-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0531.8234.35-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0535.0039.98-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0542.8641.45-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0526.0926.99-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0547.8352.95-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0545.8346.51-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0519.2321.27-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0517.3920.09-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.040.0563.6465.350.010.02
BaylorB120.080.0570.8365.330.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0550.0053.010.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0558.3360.350.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0525.0027.21-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.080.0553.8551.650.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0525.0024.15-0.04-0.03
UtahP120.080.0570.8368.550.030.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0580.0078.490.050.03
Arizona St.P120.040.0556.0053.620.000.00
BryantNEC0.080.0523.0823.72-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0573.0871.580.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0540.0039.42-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0556.0055.650.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0557.6956.200.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0576.0076.260.040.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0554.1756.890.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0572.0068.870.020.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0572.0069.230.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0552.0052.860.000.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0556.0056.660.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0532.0033.77-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0530.4331.63-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0557.6958.590.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0556.0059.610.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0550.0051.760.000.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0530.4332.18-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0532.0031.18-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0587.5084.290.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0520.0019.75-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0548.0045.69-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0564.0064.280.020.01
UABCUSA0.080.0580.0078.010.050.03
UC IrvineBW0.040.0570.8370.190.020.02
UCFAmer0.040.0547.8343.65-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0343.4844.13-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0329.6330.87-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.040.0344.0039.06-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0385.7183.660.030.02
IdahoBSky0.040.0358.3356.810.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0350.0049.580.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0360.0059.940.010.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0359.0956.770.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0358.3358.450.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0356.0055.660.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0350.0051.120.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.840.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0368.1870.090.000.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0312.0012.00-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0368.0065.640.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0345.4545.84-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0359.0958.530.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0355.5652.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0358.3358.480.010.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0337.5038.73-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0357.1460.240.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0345.8343.81-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0318.1825.29-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0360.0060.920.010.01
NJITASun0.040.0357.6957.310.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0328.5735.02-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0366.6766.290.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0322.7322.61-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0373.6876.550.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0313.6414.93-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0362.5063.810.010.01
Washington St.P120.040.0334.7831.61-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0329.1730.14-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0337.5034.54-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0331.8236.10-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.040.0334.7834.91-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0358.3358.870.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0342.8643.95-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.8351.11-0.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0340.9139.87-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0383.3382.060.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0324.0024.54-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0359.0960.710.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0338.4638.52-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0323.0823.73-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.25-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0373.9172.350.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0369.5769.090.020.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0364.0061.040.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0360.0061.790.000.01
OklahomaB120.040.0383.3380.440.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0336.0037.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0338.4640.25-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0339.1337.90-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0328.5730.34-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0329.1729.25-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0331.8233.29-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0347.6249.23-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0356.0055.750.000.00
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.66-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.040.0360.0059.040.010.00
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0330.0030.99-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0368.1865.870.000.01