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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:16.0
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:63
Current Record:27-5
Expected Record:27-5
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:108



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-516.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Cornell (334.0)IvyH82-60W100%0.0
11-12Fordham (226.0)A10H89-74W100%0.0
11-16Colgate (256.0)PatH69-50W100%0.0
11-18St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH56-50W100%0.0
11-25Minnesota (50.0)B10N75-67W100%0.0
11-26California (63.0)P12N92-81W100%0.0
11-27Baylor (30.0)B12N67-74W100%0.0
12-3Indiana (102.0)B10H69-52W100%0.0
12-7Binghamton (325.0)AEH93-65W100%0.0
12-15St. John's (67.0)BEA63-68W100%0.0
12-20High Point (172.0)BSthH75-54W100%0.0
12-28Villanova (5.0)BEH78-62W100%0.0
12-31Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH70-48W100%0.0
1-4Miami FL (110.0)ACCH49-44W100%0.0
1-7Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA52-72W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina (25.0)ACCH57-45W100%0.0
1-13Boston College (207.0)ACCA59-69W100%0.0
1-18Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH59-54W100%0.0
1-25Miami FL (110.0)ACCA52-64W100%0.0
1-29Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA57-67W100%0.0
2-1Duke (9.0)ACCH91-89W100%0.0
2-3Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH61-55W100%0.0
2-9Clemson (79.0)ACCH57-44W100%0.0
2-12Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA56-58W100%0.0
2-15North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH56-55W100%0.0
2-19Boston College (207.0)ACCH59-62L0%0.0
2-22Duke (9.0)ACCA66-60L0%0.0
2-24Maryland (78.0)ACCA55-57W100%0.0
3-1Virginia (8.0)ACCA75-56L0%0.0
3-4Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH62-67L0%0.0
3-9Florida St. (54.0)ACCA58-74W100%0.0
3-14North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCN63-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC26.0226.0282.6482.6416.9816.98
North Carolina St.ACC3.773.7762.5062.500.940.94
Miami FLACC3.723.7254.8454.840.360.36
DukeACC3.723.7278.1278.122.092.09
PittsburghACC3.703.7078.1278.122.082.08
Boston CollegeACC3.633.6320.6920.69-2.13-2.13
Georgia TechACC2.242.2446.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Wake ForestACC2.232.2353.1253.120.140.14
VirginiaACC2.212.2181.8281.821.411.41
Notre DameACC2.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC2.182.1861.2961.290.490.49
Virginia TechACC2.182.1830.0030.00-0.87-0.87
ClemsonACC2.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
North CarolinaACC2.182.1874.1974.191.051.05
MarylandACC2.132.1353.3353.330.140.14
ColgatePat1.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
St. John'sBE1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
CornellIvy1.641.643.853.85-1.51-1.51
BinghamtonAE1.621.6224.1424.14-0.84-0.84
FordhamA101.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
IndianaB101.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
MinnesotaB101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
VillanovaBE1.611.6190.3290.321.301.30
St. Francis NYNEC1.611.6156.6756.670.210.21
Eastern MichiganMAC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
BaylorB121.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
CaliforniaP121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
High PointBSth1.561.5651.8551.850.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.200.2067.6567.650.070.07
Penn St.B100.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
WisconsinB100.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
MichiganB100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Loyola MDPat0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
MassachusettsA100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
USCP120.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
RadfordBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.100.10
Stony BrookAE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
VMIBSth0.130.1355.5655.560.010.01
NavyPat0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
AlbanyAE0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ToledoMAC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
WashingtonP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
OaklandHorz0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
IllinoisB100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DavidsonSC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BryantNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
FurmanSC0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.023.573.57-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01