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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Syracuse

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:39.6
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:102
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:162



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-37.20.04%
27-48.90.42%
26-512.71.63%
25-616.45.61%
24-721.510.99%
23-827.317.07%
22-934.620.10%
21-1043.518.56%
20-1154.413.17%
19-1266.97.53%
18-1379.43.35%
17-1495.11.11%
16-15110.40.32%
15-16134.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Syracuse.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Colgate (231.7)PatH83-55W100%0.0
11-15Holy Cross (183.0)PatH90-46W100%0.0
11-18Monmouth (65.5)MAACH71-50W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH101-59W100%0.0
11-26South Carolina (17.4)SECN64-50L0%0.0
11-29Wisconsin (29.2)B10A77-60L0%0.0
12-3North Florida (270.2)ASunH0-099%28.1
12-5Connecticut (143.2)AmerN0-087%13.6
12-10Boston University (172.4)PatH0-096%21.0
12-17Georgetown (104.0)BEH0-082%10.9
12-19Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-092%16.6
12-21St. John's (167.9)BEH0-091%16.0
12-27Cornell (260.9)IvyH0-099%26.9
1-1Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-092%17.1
1-4Miami FL (45.8)ACCH0-065%4.7
1-7Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCH0-080%10.1
1-10Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-057%2.2
1-14Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-097%23.3
1-16North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-023%-9.0
1-21Notre Dame (26.0)ACCA0-038%-3.7
1-24Wake Forest (59.3)ACCH0-080%10.2
1-28Florida St. (50.8)ACCH0-073%7.3
2-1North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-072%7.1
2-4Virginia (4.7)ACCH0-037%-3.9
2-7Clemson (68.2)ACCA0-061%3.4
2-11Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA0-063%3.9
2-13Louisville (6.5)ACCH0-047%-1.0
2-19Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA0-081%10.3
2-22Duke (8.6)ACCH0-043%-2.0
2-26Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-027%-7.2
3-4Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH0-092%16.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Syracuse's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Syracuse's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Syracuse.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SyracuseACC28.9726.0460.0067.015.798.86
PittsburghACC0.003.7885.7157.410.000.56
LouisvilleACC0.003.7585.7176.850.002.02
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7350.0028.770.00-1.58
Georgia TechACC0.003.7366.6741.560.00-0.63
Notre DameACC0.002.27100.0075.440.001.16
ClemsonACC0.002.2566.6753.970.000.18
North CarolinaACC0.522.2485.7180.100.371.35
Miami FLACC0.002.2371.4366.810.000.75
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2271.4351.330.000.06
VirginiaACC0.002.22100.0083.230.001.47
Virginia TechACC0.002.1985.7163.620.000.60
Wake ForestACC0.002.1971.4353.500.000.15
DukeACC0.002.1787.5079.410.001.27
Florida St.ACC0.002.1785.7163.580.000.59
Holy CrossPat10.361.8150.0049.280.00-0.03
ColgatePat8.331.7825.0042.74-4.17-0.26
Boston UniversityPat0.001.7750.0055.300.000.19
MonmouthMAAC10.361.7583.3373.966.900.84
South Carolina St.MEAC10.121.750.0028.84-10.12-0.74
South CarolinaSEC10.361.72100.0080.1110.361.04
GeorgetownBE0.521.7250.0048.540.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.001.7033.3339.68-0.00-0.35
North FloridaASun0.001.6714.2932.89-0.00-0.57
CornellIvy1.431.6728.5731.76-0.61-0.61
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.6650.0057.680.000.26
St. John'sBE0.001.6628.5734.74-0.00-0.51
WisconsinB108.331.6671.4372.973.570.76
Penn St.B100.830.2162.5043.960.21-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.1933.3331.87-0.00-0.07
BucknellPat0.000.1975.0067.660.000.07
ArmyPat0.000.1933.3345.58-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1933.3340.49-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.18100.0083.120.000.12
ProvidenceBE0.000.1871.4356.280.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1871.4363.090.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
AmericanPat0.000.1616.6735.65-0.00-0.05
LehighPat0.000.1633.3367.01-0.000.05
NavyPat0.000.1628.5743.62-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.520.1625.0034.47-0.26-0.05
XavierBE0.000.16100.0074.800.000.08
CreightonBE0.520.16100.0076.650.520.08
YaleIvy0.000.1433.3364.14-0.000.04
HarvardIvy0.600.140.0043.04-0.60-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1457.1469.300.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1483.3355.200.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1366.6754.380.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1314.2926.81-0.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.000.1371.4354.520.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1383.3362.080.000.03
IndianaB100.000.1383.3375.060.000.07
ColumbiaIvy0.830.1142.8642.47-0.12-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.1180.0068.320.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1157.1448.240.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0018.22-0.00-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.000.1133.3338.20-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.110.0023.47-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0024.32-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.110.0034.23-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1185.7159.740.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.110.0039.35-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.1116.6725.61-0.00-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.1185.7172.660.000.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1160.0052.760.000.01
MichiganB100.600.1171.4366.530.260.03
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0086.250.000.08
ButlerBE0.000.10100.0075.690.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.1042.8635.68-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.1085.7156.490.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1085.7165.670.000.03
PurdueB100.000.1071.4374.450.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.1080.0035.960.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0950.0052.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
NJITASun0.830.0942.8650.32-0.120.00
PennIvy0.000.0940.0057.97-0.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0925.0063.95-0.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
AlbanyAE0.600.0850.0060.380.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0842.8640.94-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0875.0047.510.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0840.0050.91-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0820.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0833.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0828.5750.51-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.830.0871.4386.030.360.06
TempleAmer0.000.0871.4363.570.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.080.0033.58-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0833.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0850.0043.610.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0866.6758.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0837.5034.65-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0842.8644.33-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0871.4366.220.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0883.3344.770.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0850.0056.260.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0857.1442.660.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0860.0070.140.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0833.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.600.0816.6734.31-0.40-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0842.8638.05-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0047.990.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.600.0662.5071.630.150.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0583.3357.990.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3353.85-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0550.0051.260.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.600.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0525.0056.92-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0514.2928.66-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0525.0038.72-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0557.1444.160.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0533.3336.31-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0516.6729.36-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.520.050.0017.30-0.52-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8646.78-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0533.3340.39-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0512.5022.55-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0583.3359.600.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0520.0041.93-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0585.7169.010.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0516.6733.82-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.600.0340.0067.95-0.120.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.520.0314.2929.15-0.37-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
DrexelCAA0.600.0342.8636.82-0.09-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MassachusettsA100.600.0383.3358.080.400.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.520.0316.6732.62-0.35-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01