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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:311.9
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:235
Current Record:5-17
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-11
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:289



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18262.20.28%
10-19278.62.20%
9-20291.69.98%
8-21303.925.49%
7-22315.133.78%
6-23324.222.34%
5-24331.25.92%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Holy Cross (290.0)PatH64-67L0%0.0
11-17Dartmouth (290.8)IvyH73-63W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (113.8)MACA79-72L0%0.0
11-29Vermont (161.8)AEA86-60L0%0.0
12-4Iona (124.0)MAACH66-101L0%0.0
12-6Manhattan (227.6)MAACA70-75W100%0.0
12-9Albany (89.4)AEH53-75L0%0.0
12-12Delaware (274.3)CAAH69-70L0%0.0
12-20Army (215.2)PatA83-89W100%0.0
12-22Brown (290.9)IvyN83-84W100%0.0
12-29Jacksonville (242.7)ASunA69-68L0%0.0
1-2Canisius (216.1)MAACH83-92L0%0.0
1-4Saint Peter's (222.3)MAACH60-68L0%0.0
1-9Iona (124.0)MAACA90-80L0%0.0
1-14Rider (227.6)MAACA102-100L0%0.0
1-17Saint Peter's (222.3)MAACA76-67L0%0.0
1-22Fairfield (169.8)MAACH76-88L0%0.0
1-24Monmouth (41.1)MAACA83-72L0%0.0
1-28Niagara (308.7)MAACH66-69L0%0.0
1-30Siena (99.8)MAACA77-66L0%0.0
2-4Quinnipiac (275.2)MAACA79-53L0%0.0
2-7Siena (99.8)MAACH79-73W100%0.0
2-9Monmouth (41.1)MAACH0-09%-14.5
2-13Manhattan (227.6)MAACH0-049%-0.3
2-15Fairfield (169.8)MAACA0-017%-10.3
2-18Niagara (308.7)MAACA0-037%-3.6
2-20Canisius (216.1)MAACA0-018%-10.0
2-23Rider (227.6)MAACH0-034%-4.4
2-26Quinnipiac (275.2)MAACH0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC26.3826.4323.1524.26-14.17-13.61
NiagaraMAAC3.304.5820.8320.57-1.93-2.70
QuinnipiacMAAC3.124.5733.3333.37-1.04-1.52
CanisiusMAAC3.174.5541.6742.12-0.53-0.72
SienaMAAC5.334.5565.2265.111.621.38
MonmouthMAAC3.094.5278.2679.701.752.69
FairfieldMAAC3.164.5252.1751.460.140.13
IonaMAAC5.284.5157.1457.850.750.71
RiderMAAC3.164.4937.5039.31-0.79-0.96
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.314.4535.0038.98-1.59-0.98
ManhattanMAAC2.924.4245.0043.28-0.29-0.59
VermontAE2.611.9850.0053.310.000.13
AlbanyAE2.601.9875.0075.491.301.01
BrownIvy2.471.9333.3332.28-0.82-0.69
DartmouthIvy2.411.9333.3332.99-0.80-0.66
Holy CrossPat2.481.9036.3636.12-0.68-0.53
ArmyPat2.371.8456.5256.520.310.24
DelawareCAA2.371.7818.1820.59-1.51-1.05
Kent St.MAC2.321.7861.9058.060.550.29
JacksonvilleASun2.271.7247.6247.93-0.11-0.07
HartfordAE0.450.4125.0026.76-0.22-0.19
CornellIvy0.450.3842.1140.18-0.07-0.08
MaineAE0.400.3033.3333.12-0.13-0.10
BucknellPat0.390.2954.5558.170.040.05
ColumbiaIvy0.270.2866.6765.220.090.08
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2654.1755.570.020.03
PrincetonIvy0.270.2472.2274.700.120.12
YaleIvy0.260.2473.6874.680.120.12
Loyola MDPat0.280.2334.7837.17-0.09-0.06
New HampshireAE0.260.2157.1453.980.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.230.2071.4368.950.100.07
HarvardIvy0.210.1935.0038.49-0.06-0.04
LafayettePat0.250.1821.7422.99-0.14-0.10
Rhode IslandA100.250.1856.5256.630.030.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1713.6418.14-0.11-0.11
LehighPat0.140.1736.3639.78-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.190.1759.0958.870.030.03
HofstraCAA0.190.1765.2264.210.060.05
WagnerNEC0.140.1763.6465.030.040.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.1537.5043.36-0.05-0.02
NavyPat0.200.1562.5062.390.050.04
BryantNEC0.260.1525.0026.39-0.13-0.07
ColgatePat0.240.1543.4844.80-0.03-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1534.7837.06-0.05-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.180.1420.8324.10-0.11-0.07
PennIvy0.120.1338.8937.62-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.150.1254.1755.240.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.1250.0051.900.000.00
AmericanPat0.100.1230.4331.91-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.150.1261.9056.420.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1219.0525.89-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.100.1281.8280.030.060.07
Stony BrookAE0.090.1181.8282.630.060.08
UMass LowellAE0.140.1134.7835.64-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.140.1124.0026.33-0.07-0.05
USCP120.090.1178.2673.050.050.05
Seton HallBE0.160.0973.9169.840.080.04
George WashingtonA100.150.0978.2674.430.090.04
South FloridaAmer0.150.0920.0019.67-0.09-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0933.3335.47-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0942.8650.39-0.020.00
GeorgetownBE0.110.0956.0052.770.010.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0947.8348.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.110.0975.0070.940.050.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0936.8441.40-0.03-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0821.7422.73-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0842.8646.36-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0829.1733.14-0.04-0.03
Penn St.B100.100.0850.0046.710.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0830.4332.36-0.04-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0631.8236.15-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0647.6252.07-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.39-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0625.0029.27-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0665.2267.160.020.02
StetsonASun0.100.0623.8127.69-0.05-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0622.7323.24-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.240.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0655.0052.260.010.00
George MasonA100.050.0634.7834.14-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.780.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.390.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.0665.2266.070.030.02
SMUAmer0.110.0690.9186.160.090.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.500.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.17-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0645.4554.11-0.010.00
TowsonCAA0.100.0665.2259.750.030.01
TulsaAmer0.100.0665.2261.430.030.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0676.1973.410.050.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0681.8283.040.060.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.0671.4369.860.040.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0652.3847.040.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0629.1733.74-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0631.8230.47-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.660.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0666.6763.440.020.02
OhioMAC0.100.0661.9059.450.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.57-0.02-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0686.3682.380.030.04
DukeACC0.090.0675.0071.700.050.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0620.0020.45-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.700.030.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0618.1821.06-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.730.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0656.5262.790.010.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0650.0051.290.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.35-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0682.6178.890.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0625.0023.34-0.02-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.240.010.00
WisconsinB100.090.0660.8755.840.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.19-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0366.6767.690.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0313.0413.55-0.04-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.850.020.01
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.570.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.35-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0322.7324.96-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.150.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0350.0046.620.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.69-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.54-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.56-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.600.030.02
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.89-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.9686.360.040.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.220.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.560.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0363.1658.810.000.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.030.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.510.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.510.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.100.010.01