Marist

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	324.0
Current RPI:	324
Expected SOS:	220
Current SOS:	220
Current Record:	6-25
Expected Record:	6-25
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-11
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	320
Expected OOC SOS:	235

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-25	324.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	76-84	L	0%
11-15	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	76-73	L	0%
11-18	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	73-94	L	0%
11-23	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	N	78-84	L	0%
11-24	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	N	59-84	L	0%
11-26	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	N	46-65	L	0%
12-1	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	91-100	W	100%
12-2	Army (280.0)	Pat	N	82-75	L	0%
12-6	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	78-76	W	100%
12-9	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	76-79	L	0%
12-16	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	100-63	L	0%
12-22	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	90-69	L	0%
12-29	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	63-58	W	100%
1-2	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	96-101	L	0%
1-7	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	70-86	L	0%
1-10	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	80-79	L	0%
1-13	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	95-89	W	100%
1-18	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	68-65	L	0%
1-20	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	60-57	L	0%
1-25	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	77-85	L	0%
1-27	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	N	91-78	L	0%
1-30	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	59-62	W	100%
2-2	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	67-73	L	0%
2-4	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	64-98	L	0%
2-8	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	70-66	L	0%
2-10	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	79-89	L	0%
2-15	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	83-79	L	0%
2-17	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	69-51	W	100%
2-23	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	100-76	L	0%
2-25	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	98-74	L	0%
3-1	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	71-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Marist	MAAC	26.36	26.36	17.45	17.45	-17.16	-17.16
Fairfield	MAAC	5.67	5.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	4.24	4.24	32.26	32.26	-1.50	-1.50
Niagara	MAAC	4.11	4.11	56.67	56.67	0.55	0.55
Saint Peter's	MAAC	4.06	4.06	43.33	43.33	-0.54	-0.54
Siena	MAAC	4.06	4.06	23.33	23.33	-2.16	-2.16
Rider	MAAC	4.03	4.03	68.97	68.97	1.53	1.53
Canisius	MAAC	4.01	4.01	63.33	63.33	1.07	1.07
Manhattan	MAAC	4.00	4.00	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Army	Pat	3.38	3.38	37.04	37.04	-0.88	-0.88
Iona	MAAC	2.65	2.65	59.38	59.38	0.50	0.50
Monmouth	MAAC	2.55	2.55	33.33	33.33	-0.85	-0.85
Lehigh	Pat	1.85	1.85	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	1.78	1.78	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
Brown	Ivy	1.69	1.69	36.00	36.00	-0.47	-0.47
UMass Lowell	AE	1.64	1.64	35.71	35.71	-0.47	-0.47
Nebraska	B10	1.64	1.64	67.74	67.74	0.58	0.58
Stetson	ASun	1.64	1.64	25.93	25.93	-0.79	-0.79
Murray St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	82.14	82.14	1.04	1.04
Oregon St.	P12	1.61	1.61	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
The Citadel	SC	1.61	1.61	28.57	28.57	-0.69	-0.69
West Virginia	B12	1.61	1.61	69.70	69.70	0.64	0.64
Loyola MD	Pat	0.38	0.38	26.67	26.67	-0.18	-0.18
Holy Cross	Pat	0.37	0.37	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
Lafayette	Pat	0.34	0.34	30.00	30.00	-0.14	-0.14
Bucknell	Pat	0.32	0.32	73.53	73.53	0.15	0.15
Boston University	Pat	0.27	0.27	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.24	0.24	20.00	20.00	-0.15	-0.15
Hofstra	CAA	0.24	0.24	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Navy	Pat	0.22	0.22	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
UMBC	AE	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.19	0.19	26.92	26.92	-0.09	-0.09
NJIT	ASun	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Cornell	Ivy	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.16	0.16	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Hartford	AE	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Wagner	NEC	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01