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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:250.0
Current RPI:250
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:189
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:9-12
Expected Conf Record:9-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19250.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Stony Brook (165.0)AEA71-55L0%0.0
11-10Elon (162.0)SCH48-75L0%0.0
11-13Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A81-62L0%0.0
11-16Providence (40.0)BEA93-48L0%0.0
11-22Maryland (78.0)ACCN68-43L0%0.0
11-23Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCN70-76L0%0.0
11-25Morgan St. (225.0)MEACN74-67L0%0.0
12-4Iona (59.0)MAACA83-74L0%0.0
12-6Manhattan (60.0)MAACH59-70L0%0.0
12-15College of Charleston (242.0)CAAA62-69W100%0.0
12-20Bucknell (167.0)PatH69-51W100%0.0
12-22Penn (284.0)IvyH76-62W100%0.0
1-2Fairfield (289.0)MAACH75-56W100%0.0
1-6Canisius (96.0)MAACH65-62W100%0.0
1-10Siena (193.0)MAACA67-58L0%0.0
1-12Manhattan (60.0)MAACA86-79L0%0.0
1-18Rider (198.0)MAACH56-66L0%0.0
1-20Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH70-63W100%0.0
1-24Niagara (302.0)MAACA80-74L0%0.0
1-26Canisius (96.0)MAACA78-65L0%0.0
1-30Monmouth (292.0)MAACH75-73W100%0.0
2-1Niagara (302.0)MAACH78-64W100%0.0
2-6Rider (198.0)MAACA61-68W100%0.0
2-10Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA83-78L0%0.0
2-14Siena (193.0)MAACH65-64W100%0.0
2-16Monmouth (292.0)MAACA92-96W100%0.0
2-20Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA58-57L0%0.0
2-23Iona (59.0)MAACH67-86L0%0.0
2-28Fairfield (289.0)MAACA78-74L0%0.0
3-2Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH103-72W100%0.0
3-6Niagara (302.0)MAACN76-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC26.4026.4037.2137.21-6.75-6.75
NiagaraMAAC5.845.8416.6716.67-3.89-3.89
ManhattanMAAC4.344.3476.6776.672.322.32
IonaMAAC4.344.3466.6766.671.451.45
CanisiusMAAC4.324.3266.6766.671.441.44
RiderMAAC4.314.3144.8344.83-0.45-0.45
QuinnipiacMAAC4.314.3165.5265.521.341.34
FairfieldMAAC4.294.2920.0020.00-2.57-2.57
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.294.2944.8344.83-0.44-0.44
MonmouthMAAC4.274.2736.6736.67-1.14-1.14
SienaMAAC4.264.2646.6746.67-0.28-0.28
PennIvy1.811.8129.6329.63-0.74-0.74
Saint Joseph'sA101.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
ProvidenceBE1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
BucknellPat1.661.6655.1755.170.170.17
ElonSC1.661.6653.5753.570.120.12
MarylandACC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Loyola MarymountWCC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Stony BrookAE1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
La SalleA100.310.3148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.270.2753.1253.120.020.02
AlbanyAE0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
Seton HallBE0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
HofstraCAA0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
CornellIvy0.190.193.703.70-0.17-0.17
Kent St.MAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
FordhamA100.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.170.1764.2964.290.050.05
LehighPat0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
DavidsonSC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
BrownIvy0.150.1551.8551.850.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
MaineAE0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Penn St.B100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
LafayettePat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01