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Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:315.9
Current RPI:314
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:242
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:6-15
Expected Conf Record:6-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.73%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:281



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24315.9100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bucknell (122.8)PatA75-72L0%0.0
11-22Army (234.0)PatH62-76L0%0.0
11-24Florida Gulf Coast (141.8)ASunN58-43L0%0.0
11-25Hawaii (171.9)BWN62-55L0%0.0
11-26Fresno St. (181.4)MWCN68-64W100%0.0
12-1Boston College (165.9)ACCA79-61L0%0.0
12-4Monmouth (191.4)MAACH50-57L0%0.0
12-7Manhattan (191.4)MAACA60-38L0%0.0
12-9Penn (270.3)IvyA59-42L0%0.0
12-13VMI (282.1)SCA92-77L0%0.0
12-20Saint Joseph's (171.0)A10H58-75L0%0.0
12-28Elon (262.0)CAAA69-64L0%0.0
1-2Rider (129.7)MAACH59-69L0%0.0
1-4Saint Peter's (243.9)MAACA79-67L0%0.0
1-8Canisius (168.6)MAACH52-67L0%0.0
1-11Quinnipiac (226.7)MAACA66-54L0%0.0
1-16Fairfield (300.6)MAACA60-54L0%0.0
1-18Quinnipiac (226.7)MAACH71-72L0%0.0
1-23Siena (266.9)MAACA69-60L0%0.0
1-25Fairfield (300.6)MAACH73-67W100%0.0
1-30Niagara (285.6)MAACA61-65W100%0.0
2-1Canisius (168.6)MAACA67-75W100%0.0
2-6Niagara (285.6)MAACH63-61W100%0.0
2-8Iona (50.1)MAACA89-67L0%0.0
2-12Siena (266.9)MAACH64-66L0%0.0
2-16Monmouth (191.4)MAACA69-65L0%0.0
2-20Iona (50.1)MAACH68-72L0%0.0
2-23Manhattan (191.4)MAACH54-67L0%0.0
2-27Saint Peter's (243.9)MAACH69-67W100%0.0
3-1Rider (129.7)MAACA59-49L0%0.0
3-5Quinnipiac (226.7)MAACN74-80W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC26.4826.4722.7622.76-14.43-14.42
QuinnipiacMAAC5.795.7948.1548.15-0.21-0.21
NiagaraMAAC4.324.3228.5728.57-1.85-1.85
FairfieldMAAC4.314.3120.6920.69-2.53-2.53
SienaMAAC4.314.3132.1432.14-1.54-1.54
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.294.2946.6746.67-0.29-0.29
MonmouthMAAC4.274.2751.7251.720.150.15
RiderMAAC4.274.2765.5265.521.331.32
IonaMAAC4.274.2775.8675.862.212.21
CanisiusMAAC4.234.2355.5655.560.470.47
ManhattanMAAC4.234.2351.8551.850.160.16
PennIvy1.801.8025.0026.32-0.90-0.85
BucknellPat1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
ArmyPat1.691.6946.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.661.6664.2964.290.480.48
Saint Joseph'sA101.651.6442.8641.79-0.24-0.27
VMISC1.641.6430.7730.77-0.63-0.63
Boston CollegeACC1.611.6135.7136.68-0.46-0.43
ElonCAA1.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Fresno St.MWC1.611.6148.1546.65-0.06-0.11
HawaiiBW1.611.6157.1457.630.230.25
MassachusettsA100.330.3356.6755.620.040.04
LehighPat0.300.3051.7251.720.010.01
AlbanyAE0.270.2773.3373.330.120.12
Loyola MDPat0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2441.3841.38-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.240.2444.8344.83-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.220.2260.0059.670.040.04
CornellIvy0.190.2244.4444.54-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.220.2257.1458.010.030.03
VermontAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
FordhamA100.220.2229.6329.20-0.09-0.09
La SalleA100.220.2150.0049.660.00-0.00
NavyPat0.200.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.160.1679.3179.310.100.10
NortheasternCAA0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.130.1646.1547.68-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.160.1633.3332.68-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1616.1316.13-0.11-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.09
YaleIvy0.150.1470.3768.760.060.05
LafayettePat0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1423.3322.92-0.07-0.07
MaineAE0.140.1410.0010.00-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA0.140.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.140.1390.0088.610.110.10
George MasonA100.140.1328.5727.77-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.140.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.110.1168.9769.170.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1155.5656.340.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1173.3373.210.050.05
BrownIvy0.110.1140.7438.88-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.1043.3343.10-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0875.0075.330.050.04
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0848.0048.70-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0848.2848.71-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.0883.3382.790.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0893.3393.140.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.080.0844.0043.17-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0859.2658.620.020.01
DavidsonA100.080.0877.7878.110.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
MercerSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0646.1547.14-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.3363.730.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0670.0069.660.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0675.0075.650.010.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.7681.940.040.04
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0625.9325.08-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.8676.600.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.12-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0639.2940.13-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0660.7160.060.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.4370.300.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0537.0437.87-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0537.0436.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0525.0025.13-0.01-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0579.3178.680.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0544.8345.40-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0563.3363.700.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0583.3383.560.040.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0570.3771.000.010.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0568.9767.090.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0560.0059.100.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0580.7779.950.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0544.4444.21-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0580.0079.770.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0531.0332.31-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0580.0078.510.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0566.6766.280.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.4443.97-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0576.9274.970.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0578.5778.600.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0555.1753.880.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.6257.790.010.00
BryantNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0356.6755.470.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.3344.74-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.9227.45-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0341.3841.54-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0327.5927.73-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0355.1755.550.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0332.1432.89-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.3342.02-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.7253.220.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0360.0060.270.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.650.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0348.2848.75-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0337.0436.18-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.3393.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0376.6775.460.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0344.8344.45-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.450.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0341.3843.04-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0370.0069.390.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0360.0061.160.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.47-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.4345.71-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.0070.800.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0362.9661.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0389.6689.660.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0358.0659.050.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0346.4347.82-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0049.040.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0363.3363.000.010.01