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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:316.7
Current RPI:344
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:339
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:6-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-10
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10138.00.01%
15-12173.00.02%
14-13199.00.02%
13-14225.30.26%
12-15240.10.78%
11-16258.31.89%
10-17274.94.33%
9-18289.58.22%
8-19303.613.62%
7-20314.618.35%
6-21324.418.40%
5-22332.316.51%
4-23338.610.52%
3-24342.84.96%
2-25345.31.70%
1-26348.30.37%
0-27349.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lehigh (189.6)PatH76-84L0%0.0
11-15UMass Lowell (285.2)AEA76-73L0%0.0
11-18Army (203.9)PatH73-94L0%0.0
11-23West Virginia (33.4)B12N0-01%-30.0
12-1The Citadel (292.5)SCA0-039%-3.4
12-6Colgate (214.3)PatH0-036%-4.2
12-9Stetson (321.2)ASunH0-057%2.0
12-16Murray St. (146.9)OVCA0-09%-16.1
12-22Brown (278.2)IvyA0-029%-6.5
12-29Siena (227.7)MAACH0-039%-3.2
1-2Manhattan (178.2)MAACH0-031%-6.1
1-7Niagara (180.5)MAACH0-033%-5.3
1-10Quinnipiac (307.4)MAACA0-034%-4.9
1-13Fairfield (168.0)MAACH0-031%-5.9
1-18Siena (227.7)MAACA0-022%-9.2
1-20Rider (152.2)MAACA0-013%-13.4
1-25Quinnipiac (307.4)MAACH0-054%1.1
1-27Monmouth (75.4)MAACN0-012%-14.1
1-30Manhattan (178.2)MAACA0-016%-12.1
2-2Canisius (227.2)MAACH0-036%-4.3
2-4Iona (89.3)MAACH0-017%-11.3
2-8Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACA0-019%-10.5
2-10Rider (152.2)MAACH0-027%-7.4
2-15Fairfield (168.0)MAACA0-016%-11.9
2-17Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACH0-035%-4.5
2-23Niagara (180.5)MAACA0-017%-11.3
2-25Canisius (227.2)MAACA0-020%-10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC36.1126.380.0022.16-36.11-14.69
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.6925.0030.730.00-1.81
SienaMAAC2.784.630.0034.85-2.78-1.40
NiagaraMAAC0.004.6350.0050.200.000.02
RiderMAAC0.004.6066.6753.380.000.31
CanisiusMAAC0.004.5933.3344.540.00-0.50
FairfieldMAAC0.004.5966.6753.300.000.30
ManhattanMAAC0.004.58100.0053.550.000.33
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.5833.3346.790.00-0.29
MonmouthMAAC2.782.9066.6758.760.930.51
IonaMAAC0.002.8625.0058.950.000.51
LehighPat16.672.0850.0049.790.00-0.01
ArmyPat16.672.050.0051.84-16.670.08
ColgatePat0.001.9950.0049.810.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.001.95100.0038.010.00-0.47
UMass LowellAE16.671.890.0040.61-16.67-0.35
Murray St.OVC0.001.8550.0065.590.000.58
StetsonASun0.001.8533.3333.250.00-0.62
The CitadelSC0.001.8533.3329.240.00-0.77
West VirginiaB120.001.8566.6770.190.000.75
Holy CrossPat0.000.36100.0048.790.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.330.0021.970.00-0.19
Loyola MDPat0.000.300.0038.210.00-0.07
BucknellPat0.000.290.0061.460.000.07
AlbanyAE0.000.28100.0072.510.000.13
HofstraCAA4.170.2675.0056.122.080.03
NJITASun0.000.2333.3333.210.00-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.000.230.0047.690.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.230.0030.350.00-0.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.200.0030.910.00-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2033.3350.350.000.00
NavyPat0.000.2050.0052.870.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.2033.3334.680.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2025.0045.730.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.190.0033.700.00-0.06
HartfordAE0.000.1933.3326.430.00-0.09
New HampshireAE0.000.190.0048.110.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.1966.6774.120.000.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.180.0036.070.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1850.0054.450.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.1725.0054.930.000.02
PennIvy0.000.1733.3349.350.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.17100.0067.950.000.06
WagnerNEC0.000.1666.6749.940.00-0.00
MassachusettsA104.170.1650.0042.160.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1433.3354.200.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.140.0051.010.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.1325.0038.080.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.130.0052.900.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.130.0029.620.00-0.05
MaineAE0.000.130.0013.450.00-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1366.6773.200.000.06
DrexelCAA0.000.1333.3339.360.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1333.3350.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.12100.0061.010.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1033.3329.980.00-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1075.0055.040.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.100.0047.400.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.1033.3336.170.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1033.3335.150.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1075.0064.570.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.100.0037.310.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1025.0035.000.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.100.0041.210.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.100.0044.950.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0074.140.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.100.0030.230.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3359.680.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.09100.0044.740.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0046.410.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0038.990.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0733.3357.840.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0059.440.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0775.0076.250.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3347.970.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0056.560.000.01
VMISC0.000.0733.3327.450.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.070.0021.380.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.070.0039.740.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0051.410.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0725.0040.490.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0029.880.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3341.010.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0068.280.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0031.380.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0733.3349.220.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0036.690.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0725.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0039.640.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0750.0048.690.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.070.0026.150.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.070.0039.010.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0750.0073.230.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0038.960.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0775.0051.210.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0061.110.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.05
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.150.000.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0063.830.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6768.790.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.04100.0068.200.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0433.3347.540.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.040.0031.810.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0466.6748.280.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.04100.0059.870.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0475.0061.940.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01