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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:318.0
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:251
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:4-17
Expected Conf Record:4-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:287



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23318.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Holy Cross (248.0)PatH64-67L0%0.0
11-17Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH73-63W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (124.0)MACA79-72L0%0.0
11-29Vermont (126.0)AEA86-60L0%0.0
12-4Iona (77.0)MAACH66-101L0%0.0
12-6Manhattan (229.0)MAACA70-75W100%0.0
12-9Albany (107.0)AEH53-75L0%0.0
12-12Delaware (274.0)CAAH69-70L0%0.0
12-20Army (214.0)PatA83-89W100%0.0
12-22Brown (312.0)IvyN83-84W100%0.0
12-29Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA69-68L0%0.0
1-2Canisius (220.0)MAACH83-92L0%0.0
1-4Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH60-68L0%0.0
1-9Iona (77.0)MAACA90-80L0%0.0
1-14Rider (242.0)MAACA102-100L0%0.0
1-17Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA76-67L0%0.0
1-22Fairfield (142.0)MAACH76-88L0%0.0
1-24Monmouth (52.0)MAACA83-72L0%0.0
1-28Niagara (315.0)MAACH66-69L0%0.0
1-30Siena (104.0)MAACA77-66L0%0.0
2-4Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA79-53L0%0.0
2-7Siena (104.0)MAACH79-73W100%0.0
2-9Monmouth (52.0)MAACH61-87L0%0.0
2-13Manhattan (229.0)MAACH73-81L0%0.0
2-15Fairfield (142.0)MAACA76-73L0%0.0
2-18Niagara (315.0)MAACA76-72L0%0.0
2-20Canisius (220.0)MAACA81-66L0%0.0
2-23Rider (242.0)MAACH71-58W100%0.0
2-26Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH91-77W100%0.0
3-3Manhattan (229.0)MAACN81-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC26.4326.4321.8321.83-14.89-14.89
ManhattanMAAC5.995.9939.2939.29-1.28-1.28
SienaMAAC4.514.5164.5264.521.311.31
MonmouthMAAC4.514.5178.1278.122.542.54
IonaMAAC4.504.5066.6766.671.501.50
CanisiusMAAC4.494.4938.7138.71-1.01-1.01
FairfieldMAAC4.464.4656.6756.670.590.59
NiagaraMAAC4.464.4616.6716.67-2.97-2.97
QuinnipiacMAAC4.454.4528.5728.57-1.91-1.91
RiderMAAC4.434.4338.7138.71-1.00-1.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.404.4042.8642.86-0.63-0.63
VermontAE1.911.9159.3859.380.360.36
AlbanyAE1.901.9073.3373.330.890.89
BrownIvy1.861.8626.9226.92-0.86-0.86
Holy CrossPat1.861.8640.6240.62-0.35-0.35
DartmouthIvy1.861.8634.6234.62-0.57-0.57
ArmyPat1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
DelawareCAA1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
Kent St.MAC1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
JacksonvilleASun1.671.6740.7440.74-0.31-0.31
HartfordAE0.400.4028.1228.12-0.18-0.18
CornellIvy0.360.3633.3333.33-0.12-0.12
BucknellPat0.310.3155.1755.170.030.03
MaineAE0.300.3026.6726.67-0.14-0.14
ColumbiaIvy0.280.2865.5265.520.090.09
Boston UniversityPat0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.230.2377.7877.780.130.13
YaleIvy0.230.2377.7877.780.130.13
New HampshireAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
LehighPat0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
HarvardIvy0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.160.1620.0020.00-0.10-0.10
Rhode IslandA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
DrexelCAA0.160.1620.0020.00-0.09-0.09
HofstraCAA0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
WagnerNEC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
BryantNEC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
NavyPat0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
PennIvy0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
LipscombASun0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01