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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:317.0
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:242
Current Record:7-25
Expected Record:7-25
Current Conf Record:6-16
Expected Conf Record:6-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-25317.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bucknell (136.0)PatA75-72L0%0.0
11-22Army (235.0)PatH62-76L0%0.0
11-24Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunN58-43L0%0.0
11-25Hawaii (152.0)BWN62-55L0%0.0
11-26Fresno St. (182.0)MWCN68-64W100%0.0
12-1Boston College (165.0)ACCA79-61L0%0.0
12-4Monmouth (176.0)MAACH50-57L0%0.0
12-7Manhattan (168.0)MAACA60-38L0%0.0
12-9Penn (254.0)IvyA59-42L0%0.0
12-13VMI (286.0)SCA92-77L0%0.0
12-20Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H58-75L0%0.0
12-28Elon (259.0)CAAA69-64L0%0.0
1-2Rider (140.0)MAACH59-69L0%0.0
1-4Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA79-67L0%0.0
1-8Canisius (180.0)MAACH52-67L0%0.0
1-11Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA66-54L0%0.0
1-16Fairfield (299.0)MAACA60-54L0%0.0
1-18Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH71-72L0%0.0
1-23Siena (261.0)MAACA69-60L0%0.0
1-25Fairfield (299.0)MAACH73-67W100%0.0
1-30Niagara (287.0)MAACA61-65W100%0.0
2-1Canisius (180.0)MAACA67-75W100%0.0
2-6Niagara (287.0)MAACH63-61W100%0.0
2-8Iona (51.0)MAACA89-67L0%0.0
2-12Siena (261.0)MAACH64-66L0%0.0
2-16Monmouth (176.0)MAACA69-65L0%0.0
2-20Iona (51.0)MAACH68-72L0%0.0
2-23Manhattan (168.0)MAACH54-67L0%0.0
2-27Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH69-67W100%0.0
3-1Rider (140.0)MAACA59-49L0%0.0
3-5Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACN74-80W100%0.0
3-7Manhattan (168.0)MAACN74-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC26.5026.5022.0022.00-14.84-14.84
ManhattanMAAC5.725.7255.1755.170.590.59
QuinnipiacMAAC5.625.6248.1548.15-0.21-0.21
IonaMAAC4.324.3275.0075.002.162.16
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.294.2946.8846.88-0.27-0.27
MonmouthMAAC4.254.2551.6151.610.140.14
SienaMAAC4.244.2431.0331.03-1.61-1.61
RiderMAAC4.194.1963.3363.331.121.12
NiagaraMAAC4.194.1928.5728.57-1.79-1.79
FairfieldMAAC4.184.1820.6920.69-2.45-2.45
CanisiusMAAC4.164.1653.5753.570.300.30
PennIvy1.741.7429.6329.63-0.71-0.71
BucknellPat1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
ArmyPat1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
Saint Joseph'sA101.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
VMISC1.591.5929.6329.63-0.65-0.65
Boston CollegeACC1.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
ElonCAA1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Fresno St.MWC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
HawaiiBW1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
MassachusettsA100.320.3253.1253.120.020.02
LehighPat0.280.2851.7251.720.010.01
AlbanyAE0.260.2675.0075.000.130.13
St. BonaventureA100.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.230.2336.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.220.2256.2556.250.030.03
FordhamA100.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
CornellIvy0.200.2041.3841.38-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
NavyPat0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
RutgersB100.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
WoffordSC0.150.1581.2581.250.100.10
PrincetonIvy0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
George MasonA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
YaleIvy0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
WagnerNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02