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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:318.3
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:246
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17239.00.01%
12-18244.30.06%
11-19262.80.24%
10-20276.42.04%
9-21291.05.83%
8-22304.515.43%
7-23315.826.32%
6-24325.427.95%
5-25332.617.82%
4-26338.44.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lehigh (237.9)PatH76-84L0%0.0
11-15UMass Lowell (320.4)AEA76-73L0%0.0
11-18Army (188.0)PatH73-94L0%0.0
11-23West Virginia (15.9)B12N78-84L0%0.0
11-24Nebraska (100.4)B10N59-84L0%0.0
11-26Oregon St. (145.3)P12N46-65L0%0.0
12-1The Citadel (314.8)SCA91-100W100%0.0
12-2Army (188.0)PatN82-75L0%0.0
12-6Colgate (219.6)PatH78-76W100%0.0
12-9Stetson (305.8)ASunH76-79L0%0.0
12-16Murray St. (88.6)OVCA100-63L0%0.0
12-22Brown (261.3)IvyA90-69L0%0.0
12-29Siena (259.9)MAACH63-58W100%0.0
1-2Manhattan (216.7)MAACH96-101L0%0.0
1-7Niagara (187.6)MAACH70-86L0%0.0
1-10Quinnipiac (307.8)MAACA80-79L0%0.0
1-13Fairfield (217.8)MAACH95-89W100%0.0
1-18Siena (259.9)MAACA68-65L0%0.0
1-20Rider (106.0)MAACA60-57L0%0.0
1-25Quinnipiac (307.8)MAACH0-059%2.5
1-27Monmouth (175.3)MAACN0-017%-10.5
1-30Manhattan (216.7)MAACA0-017%-10.6
2-2Canisius (141.9)MAACH0-027%-6.9
2-4Iona (82.3)MAACH0-017%-10.8
2-8Saint Peter's (226.6)MAACA0-016%-11.0
2-10Rider (106.0)MAACH0-023%-8.2
2-15Fairfield (217.8)MAACA0-018%-10.1
2-17Saint Peter's (226.6)MAACH0-034%-4.6
2-23Niagara (187.6)MAACA0-021%-9.2
2-25Canisius (141.9)MAACA0-012%-13.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC26.6526.3617.9819.49-17.07-16.08
QuinnipiacMAAC2.994.2027.7827.09-1.33-1.92
NiagaraMAAC3.124.1755.0050.710.310.06
SienaMAAC5.544.1427.7830.42-2.46-1.62
RiderMAAC2.914.1163.1663.720.761.13
CanisiusMAAC0.344.1160.0058.930.070.73
ManhattanMAAC2.984.1144.4445.07-0.33-0.40
FairfieldMAAC2.904.1041.1844.37-0.51-0.46
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.274.1044.4446.98-0.03-0.25
ArmyPat5.403.5156.2557.500.670.53
MonmouthMAAC0.272.5827.7839.44-0.12-0.55
IonaMAAC0.332.5563.1666.310.090.83
LehighPat2.981.9335.2942.70-0.88-0.28
ColgatePat2.701.8552.9452.930.160.11
BrownIvy2.781.7546.1542.94-0.21-0.25
UMass LowellAE2.731.7025.0028.10-1.36-0.74
NebraskaB102.701.7065.0058.440.810.29
StetsonASun2.691.6929.4134.50-1.11-0.53
Murray St.OVC2.631.6768.7575.000.990.83
Oregon St.P122.631.6755.5649.110.29-0.03
The CitadelSC2.631.6720.0019.11-1.58-1.03
West VirginiaB122.631.6783.3377.441.750.91
Holy CrossPat0.490.3826.3230.43-0.23-0.15
LafayettePat0.360.3522.2227.51-0.20-0.16
Loyola MDPat0.370.3322.2228.67-0.21-0.14
BucknellPat0.420.3261.9068.010.100.12
Boston UniversityPat0.370.2750.0053.160.000.02
AmericanPat0.360.2626.3228.14-0.17-0.12
AlbanyAE0.280.2570.0068.050.110.09
HofstraCAA0.410.2557.8959.470.070.05
NavyPat0.290.2460.0055.160.060.02
ColumbiaIvy0.290.2120.0032.26-0.17-0.07
NJITASun0.390.2138.8942.60-0.09-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.2033.3335.19-0.10-0.06
UMBCAE0.380.1858.8258.360.070.03
CornellIvy0.210.1833.3333.36-0.07-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.240.1840.0042.57-0.05-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.1721.4326.21-0.04-0.08
New HampshireAE0.210.1729.4138.15-0.09-0.04
HartfordAE0.210.1752.6346.880.01-0.01
VermontAE0.280.1773.6877.120.130.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.1657.1460.400.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.190.1666.6768.700.060.06
YaleIvy0.260.1541.1847.51-0.05-0.01
PennIvy0.070.1564.7162.780.020.04
BinghamtonAE0.220.1544.4442.74-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.220.1464.7164.540.060.04
Seton HallBE0.070.1475.0067.890.030.05
MassachusettsA100.210.1450.0046.780.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.1252.9460.270.000.02
HarvardIvy0.070.1237.5046.63-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.1233.3333.80-0.02-0.04
NorthwesternB100.160.1255.0050.370.020.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.1257.8966.250.030.04
MaineAE0.070.1210.5314.86-0.05-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.220.1244.4441.15-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.150.1137.5031.76-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1152.6351.090.000.00
DrexelCAA0.140.1130.0030.99-0.05-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.130.1120.0041.76-0.08-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.270.1140.0043.34-0.05-0.01
Penn St.B100.130.1161.9055.770.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.1172.2274.900.030.05
MinnesotaB100.130.1163.6457.640.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.0936.8432.79-0.04-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.090.0938.8946.68-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0970.0068.220.060.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0929.4133.94-0.06-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0950.0045.900.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.0968.4269.240.060.03
ProvidenceBE0.160.0970.0060.460.060.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0930.0033.49-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.230.099.5217.08-0.18-0.06
USCP120.140.0971.4368.300.060.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0923.5332.620.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.210.0868.4260.880.080.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0835.2940.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.140.0894.4485.440.130.06
PurdueB100.140.0890.4888.380.110.06
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0852.9459.250.010.02
WisconsinB100.140.0850.0046.260.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.140.0860.0053.730.030.01
FordhamA100.140.0831.5829.06-0.05-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0829.4139.62-0.06-0.02
St. John'sBE0.130.0847.3742.18-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0830.0036.48-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.130.0884.2179.740.090.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.0652.3848.520.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.160.0643.7545.34-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0677.7879.160.000.04
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.500.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.360.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0644.4454.890.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0631.5835.150.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0627.7832.66-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0642.1143.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0626.3231.52-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0657.8953.190.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0668.7567.640.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1117.96-0.06-0.04
VMISC0.080.0625.0024.17-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0638.8935.35-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0668.7563.620.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4445.980.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.090.0683.3381.410.060.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0631.5832.72-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.150.0647.3746.91-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0680.9576.520.050.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.270.030.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0641.1843.41-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.065.8819.370.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.0640.0042.720.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.760.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0668.4255.060.050.01
PittsburghACC0.140.0640.0030.87-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0680.0078.980.040.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0678.9576.130.040.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0652.9457.320.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.420.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0641.1839.13-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.830.020.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1666.000.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.290.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0630.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.040.020.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.71-0.04-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0670.0061.440.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.080.050.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0573.6867.950.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0510.5316.75-0.05-0.04
BaylorB120.070.0561.1156.090.020.01
BYUWCC0.060.0580.9576.230.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0520.0023.36-0.04-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.0566.6765.620.040.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0552.6347.360.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.060.0547.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0561.1147.260.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0573.6862.720.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.130.0577.7869.360.070.02
MemphisAmer0.130.0565.0058.490.040.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0518.7536.76-0.04-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0577.7867.900.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0568.4254.090.030.00
PacificWCC0.000.0545.0044.460.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0557.8947.140.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.0573.6865.590.000.02
TexasB120.070.0563.1657.620.020.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0557.8950.210.000.00
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0560.0062.030.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0521.0523.500.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0389.4777.030.060.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.440.000.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0310.0019.62-0.06-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.610.040.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.700.000.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0340.0047.86-0.02-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.700.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.700.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0355.5656.710.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0352.6350.250.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0368.4257.780.030.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.120.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.130.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.11-0.03-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0366.6773.240.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.440.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0055.650.000.00
UtahP120.070.0361.1158.950.020.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0356.2557.400.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.94-0.06-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0375.0070.690.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.030.009.15-0.06-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.680.000.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.030.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.320.000.01
MichiganB100.060.0375.0070.270.030.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0385.0083.180.040.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.980.030.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01