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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:244.3
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:272
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12109.30.03%
18-13119.20.08%
17-14133.10.34%
16-15149.40.89%
15-16167.82.57%
14-17186.65.54%
13-18204.49.96%
12-19223.515.27%
11-20241.818.45%
10-21259.318.51%
9-22274.014.29%
8-23288.68.62%
7-24301.33.99%
6-25312.41.20%
5-26320.00.23%
4-27329.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Duke (9.9)ACCA94-49L0%0.0
11-14Rhode Island (37.3)A10A107-65L0%0.0
11-16Vermont (86.8)AEH72-76L0%0.0
11-19Brown (248.0)IvyN79-87W100%0.0
11-20Grand Canyon (179.1)WACN72-84L0%0.0
11-26Dartmouth (319.5)IvyA69-75W100%0.0
11-29UMass Lowell (265.7)AEH81-69W100%0.0
12-2Niagara (267.5)MAACH72-66W100%0.0
12-4Quinnipiac (255.0)MAACA77-63L0%0.0
12-7Albany (147.3)AEA0-018%-11.0
12-10Jacksonville (204.9)ASunH0-045%-1.6
12-20Delaware (219.8)CAAA0-027%-7.5
12-23Holy Cross (196.9)PatA0-028%-7.1
12-31Iona (106.3)MAACA0-013%-13.6
1-2Manhattan (249.8)MAACH0-056%1.8
1-6Rider (205.6)MAACH0-044%-1.8
1-8Monmouth (68.0)MAACA0-09%-16.3
1-14Canisius (195.1)MAACA0-027%-7.5
1-16Niagara (267.5)MAACA0-034%-5.0
1-21Rider (205.6)MAACA0-025%-8.1
1-26Saint Peter's (189.2)MAACH0-041%-2.8
1-28Fairfield (144.8)MAACA0-018%-10.9
1-30Monmouth (68.0)MAACH0-020%-10.1
2-4Manhattan (249.8)MAACA0-035%-4.5
2-9Fairfield (144.8)MAACH0-035%-4.7
2-11Siena (136.1)MAACH0-033%-5.2
2-14Saint Peter's (189.2)MAACA0-022%-9.1
2-17Iona (106.3)MAACH0-027%-7.3
2-19Canisius (195.1)MAACH0-046%-1.2
2-23Quinnipiac (255.0)MAACH0-056%1.7
2-26Siena (136.1)MAACA0-017%-11.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC28.2226.3646.1535.13-2.17-7.84
QuinnipiacMAAC5.904.2516.6734.43-3.94-1.33
SienaMAAC0.004.2337.5050.43-0.000.04
NiagaraMAAC5.864.2128.5735.23-2.51-1.24
IonaMAAC0.354.2057.1462.920.051.09
CanisiusMAAC0.004.2037.5043.05-0.00-0.58
MonmouthMAAC0.404.2075.0069.590.201.65
FairfieldMAAC0.464.2071.4358.870.200.75
ManhattanMAAC0.004.1825.0033.03-0.00-1.42
RiderMAAC0.004.1850.0047.660.00-0.20
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.1757.1449.140.00-0.07
AlbanyAE0.711.9142.8660.39-0.100.40
VermontAE5.951.8657.1470.330.850.75
BrownIvy6.251.8362.5048.711.56-0.05
DartmouthIvy5.901.780.0021.35-5.90-1.02
Holy CrossPat0.001.7737.5046.54-0.00-0.12
Rhode IslandA106.641.7257.1468.070.950.62
UMass LowellAE5.561.7225.0039.82-2.78-0.35
DukeACC6.301.6787.5077.684.720.92
Grand CanyonWAC5.861.6733.3357.10-1.950.24
DelawareCAA0.001.6650.0040.870.00-0.30
JacksonvilleASun0.001.6157.1459.440.000.30
HartfordAE0.350.3522.2226.33-0.19-0.17
MaineAE0.310.3314.2924.15-0.22-0.17
CornellIvy0.000.2828.5729.95-0.00-0.11
DrexelCAA0.350.2750.0040.600.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.2257.1458.840.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.310.2114.2926.74-0.22-0.10
BucknellPat0.000.2166.6766.340.000.07
YaleIvy0.350.2042.8663.41-0.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.400.2042.8642.62-0.06-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.1928.5738.15-0.00-0.05
HofstraCAA0.350.1962.5043.220.09-0.03
WagnerNEC0.310.1933.3354.47-0.100.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1842.8654.90-0.000.02
FordhamA100.000.1850.0041.310.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1871.4370.390.000.07
PennIvy0.000.1733.3356.57-0.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1720.0046.79-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1725.0063.27-0.000.04
NJITASun0.310.1750.0049.780.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.1650.0043.560.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.1680.0054.540.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.1642.8650.09-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.310.1671.4358.600.130.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1687.5065.250.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.1471.4359.470.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.1342.8645.94-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1342.8638.17-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1375.0051.040.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.1112.5033.04-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1157.1471.940.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1125.0030.23-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.460.1157.1429.790.07-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.1171.4355.820.130.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1137.5033.74-0.00-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.310.1133.3346.01-0.10-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.12-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1142.8653.19-0.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1116.6739.78-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.1133.3333.36-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.350.10100.0078.850.350.06
BuffaloMAC0.350.1033.3352.21-0.120.00
NevadaMWC0.000.1077.7871.970.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.1087.5081.960.000.07
SyracuseACC0.000.1071.4366.700.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0942.8660.54-0.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0871.4363.170.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.690.0875.0056.590.350.01
CincinnatiAmer0.660.0887.5082.360.490.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.0850.0044.400.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0850.0050.840.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.75-0.00-0.05
La SalleA100.000.0866.6755.540.000.01
Seton HallBE0.400.0871.4354.560.170.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.0814.2938.26-0.22-0.02
Penn St.B100.710.0866.6746.420.24-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.69-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0857.1433.230.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0077.380.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5029.71-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0844.4442.03-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0855.5641.690.00-0.01
KansasB120.310.0887.5075.860.230.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0885.7170.060.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.79-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.310.0625.0047.82-0.15-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.460.0671.4368.050.200.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.0633.3332.92-0.10-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.75-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.68-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.050.0025.23-0.31-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.400.0587.5075.590.300.03
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.400.05100.0091.920.400.05
HoustonAmer0.350.0585.7178.280.250.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.400.0542.8650.11-0.060.00
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.330.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0514.2931.35-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.22-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.67-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.360.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.800.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0542.8666.67-0.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0055.500.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0575.0066.100.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0525.0037.38-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.350.0533.3330.44-0.12-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0583.3371.480.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8646.14-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.350.0585.7145.370.25-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.920.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0054.670.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.85-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0557.1467.260.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0575.0054.490.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0516.6749.65-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0585.7183.660.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0550.0071.070.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.460.0320.0021.80-0.28-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.51-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.400.030.0017.13-0.40-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.400.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0032.52-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.350.0350.0064.350.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.310.0371.4370.210.130.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
IndianaB100.310.0387.5074.490.230.01
LibertyBSth0.310.0333.3348.07-0.10-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.350.0385.7174.990.250.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
WoffordSC0.350.030.0034.81-0.35-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.310.0316.6729.80-0.21-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.310.0355.5658.610.030.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01