Marist

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	223.0
Current RPI:	223
Expected SOS:	200
Current SOS:	200
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	177
Expected OOC SOS:	204

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	223.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	A	108-58	L	0%
11-14	South Florida (52.0)	BE	A	81-67	L	0%
11-19	Vermont (134.0)	AE	N	84-75	L	0%
11-20	Radford (329.0)	BSth	N	47-60	W	100%
11-22	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	H	68-74	L	0%
11-26	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	H	81-73	W	100%
12-1	Loyola MD (77.0)	MAAC	A	76-63	L	0%
12-4	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	H	95-75	W	100%
12-7	Army (301.0)	Pat	H	59-56	W	100%
12-17	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	A	73-56	L	0%
12-21	Hartford (307.0)	AE	H	89-86	W	100%
12-23	Pennsylvania (98.0)	Ivy	A	84-71	L	0%
12-28	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	79-59	W	100%
1-2	St. Peter's (305.0)	MAAC	H	71-67	W	100%
1-6	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	A	99-86	L	0%
1-8	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	H	76-100	L	0%
1-13	Canisius (333.0)	MAAC	A	67-57	L	0%
1-15	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	A	86-67	L	0%
1-20	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	H	44-61	L	0%
1-27	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	A	66-55	L	0%
1-29	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	A	81-53	L	0%
2-2	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	A	73-51	L	0%
2-4	Canisius (333.0)	MAAC	H	80-69	W	100%
2-9	St. Peter's (305.0)	MAAC	A	47-66	W	100%
2-12	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	A	83-74	L	0%
2-15	Loyola MD (77.0)	MAAC	H	72-54	W	100%
2-18	Maine (282.0)	AE	A	71-77	W	100%
2-20	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	H	49-60	L	0%
2-23	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	H	61-52	W	100%
2-26	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	H	89-77	W	100%
3-2	St. Peter's (305.0)	MAAC	N	64-57	W	100%
3-3	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	N	87-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Marist	MAAC	26.44	26.44	42.19	42.19	-4.13	-4.13
Iona	MAAC	5.60	5.60	75.86	75.86	2.89	2.89
St. Peter's	MAAC	5.55	5.55	17.86	17.86	-3.57	-3.57
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.23	4.23	76.67	76.67	2.26	2.26
Fairfield	MAAC	4.21	4.21	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
Niagara	MAAC	4.16	4.16	41.94	41.94	-0.67	-0.67
Siena	MAAC	4.13	4.13	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
Manhattan	MAAC	4.12	4.12	60.00	60.00	0.82	0.82
Rider	MAAC	4.08	4.08	40.00	40.00	-0.82	-0.82
Canisius	MAAC	4.05	4.05	14.29	14.29	-2.90	-2.90
Vermont	AE	1.97	1.97	66.67	66.67	0.66	0.66
Hartford	AE	1.87	1.87	30.00	30.00	-0.75	-0.75
New Hampshire	AE	1.84	1.84	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Maine	AE	1.74	1.74	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Colgate	Pat	1.72	1.72	27.59	27.59	-0.77	-0.77
Bucknell	Pat	1.72	1.72	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Columbia	Ivy	1.69	1.69	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	1.66	1.66	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Kentucky	SEC	1.64	1.64	93.94	93.94	1.44	1.44
Radford	BSth	1.59	1.59	13.79	13.79	-1.15	-1.15
South Florida	BE	1.59	1.59	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Binghamton	AE	0.49	0.49	6.45	6.45	-0.42	-0.42
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.43	0.43	13.33	13.33	-0.32	-0.32
Albany	AE	0.36	0.36	57.58	57.58	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.31	0.31	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.31	0.31	70.00	70.00	0.12	0.12
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.28	0.28	78.12	78.12	0.16	0.16
Brown	Ivy	0.24	0.24	23.33	23.33	-0.13	-0.13
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.23	0.23	13.79	13.79	-0.17	-0.17
Lafayette	Pat	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.23	0.23	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.23	7.14	7.14	-0.20	-0.20
Long Island	NEC	0.23	0.23	75.76	75.76	0.12	0.12
American	Pat	0.21	0.21	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.20	0.20	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.18	0.18	65.38	65.38	0.06	0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.18	0.18	64.29	64.29	0.05	0.05
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.13	0.13	86.21	86.21	0.09	0.09
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.13	0.13	10.34	10.34	-0.10	-0.10
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	93.94	93.94	0.11	0.11
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.10	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	3.12	3.12	-0.09	-0.09
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01