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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:330.3
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:286
Current Record:1-9
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:0-2
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-13
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17229.50.02%
12-18260.90.07%
11-19277.10.41%
10-20293.61.41%
9-21304.83.70%
8-22315.38.42%
7-23323.615.58%
6-24329.921.58%
5-25335.521.88%
4-26339.716.17%
3-27343.28.13%
2-28345.62.23%
1-29347.20.39%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bucknell (256.5)PatA75-72L0%0.0
11-22Army (141.8)PatH62-76L0%0.0
11-24Florida Gulf Coast (91.3)ASunN58-43L0%0.0
11-25Hawaii (225.6)BWN62-55L0%0.0
11-26Fresno St. (261.2)MWCN68-64W100%0.0
12-1Boston College (155.2)ACCA79-61L0%0.0
12-4Monmouth (176.3)MAACH50-57L0%0.0
12-7Manhattan (288.5)MAACA60-38L0%0.0
12-9Penn (272.2)IvyA59-42L0%0.0
12-13VMI (270.6)SCA92-77L0%0.0
12-20Saint Joseph's (193.4)A10H0-038%-3.5
12-28Elon (190.1)CAAA0-010%-15.0
1-2Rider (193.6)MAACH0-033%-5.3
1-4Saint Peter's (228.7)MAACA0-011%-14.7
1-8Canisius (126.6)MAACH0-023%-8.8
1-11Quinnipiac (248.6)MAACA0-015%-12.4
1-16Fairfield (249.2)MAACA0-021%-9.5
1-18Quinnipiac (248.6)MAACH0-038%-3.7
1-23Siena (202.5)MAACA0-010%-15.1
1-25Fairfield (249.2)MAACH0-047%-0.8
1-30Niagara (276.0)MAACA0-023%-8.5
2-1Canisius (126.6)MAACA0-07%-17.6
2-6Niagara (276.0)MAACH0-051%0.2
2-8Iona (81.7)MAACA0-03%-22.1
2-12Siena (202.5)MAACH0-030%-6.3
2-16Monmouth (176.3)MAACA0-08%-16.5
2-20Iona (81.7)MAACH0-013%-13.4
2-23Manhattan (288.5)MAACH0-041%-2.6
2-27Saint Peter's (228.7)MAACH0-031%-5.9
3-1Rider (193.6)MAACA0-012%-14.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC27.7926.4111.3617.53-21.48-17.15
IonaMAAC0.284.3766.6771.030.091.84
MonmouthMAAC5.004.3737.5054.00-1.250.35
RiderMAAC0.314.3745.4550.22-0.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.534.3744.4438.14-0.06-1.04
NiagaraMAAC0.004.3614.2928.76-0.00-1.85
SienaMAAC0.004.3637.5049.34-0.00-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.3436.3645.06-0.00-0.43
CanisiusMAAC0.004.3350.0059.910.000.86
ManhattanMAAC5.004.3312.5034.64-3.75-1.33
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.3337.5043.82-0.00-0.54
PennIvy5.001.8628.5730.41-2.14-0.73
BucknellPat5.001.8433.3333.94-1.67-0.59
ArmyPat5.281.7575.0067.652.640.62
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.001.7271.4370.372.140.70
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.7055.5639.460.00-0.36
VMISC5.281.7025.0036.53-2.64-0.46
Boston CollegeACC5.001.6762.5039.941.25-0.34
ElonCAA0.001.6737.5046.65-0.00-0.11
Fresno St.MWC5.001.6733.3330.54-1.67-0.65
HawaiiBW5.001.6762.5052.321.250.08
MassachusettsA100.870.3460.0055.530.170.04
LehighPat0.000.2842.8652.31-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.2633.3327.49-0.00-0.12
AlbanyAE0.250.2633.3348.85-0.08-0.01
PittsburghACC0.560.2366.6752.270.190.01
CornellIvy0.000.2355.5648.590.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.2375.0064.990.000.07
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2333.3341.58-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.280.2228.5728.28-0.12-0.10
HartfordAE0.000.2250.0050.820.000.00
VermontAE0.000.2050.0059.880.000.04
La SalleA100.000.2050.0049.770.00-0.00
NavyPat0.590.1820.0021.41-0.35-0.10
Holy CrossPat0.000.1757.1452.640.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.1777.7876.160.000.09
NortheasternCAA0.280.1766.6757.570.090.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1727.2737.77-0.00-0.04
RutgersB100.280.1660.0034.930.06-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.1622.2231.12-0.15-0.06
LafayettePat0.310.1475.0069.390.160.06
BinghamtonAE1.150.140.0012.01-1.15-0.11
DukeACC0.280.14100.0087.440.280.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1420.0037.19-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1425.0037.61-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.280.1425.0025.95-0.14-0.07
WagnerNEC0.310.1414.2933.80-0.22-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.1237.5064.54-0.080.04
YaleIvy0.000.1270.0064.820.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.1260.0065.060.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.1220.0042.80-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.280.1211.1121.17-0.22-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1175.0069.340.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.590.1140.0046.88-0.12-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.1140.0033.85-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.830.1190.0066.760.670.04
TowsonCAA0.280.1166.6751.310.090.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0038.030.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0925.0029.26-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.280.0916.6730.49-0.19-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.250.0942.8638.02-0.04-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0936.3633.75-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0944.4456.92-0.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.250.0937.5046.91-0.06-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0922.2237.53-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.280.0950.0053.700.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.250.0962.5065.190.060.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0985.7172.940.000.04
DelawareCAA0.280.090.008.74-0.28-0.07
VillanovaBE0.250.09100.0082.310.250.06
DavidsonA100.000.0987.5077.040.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.280.0950.0037.400.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.280.0970.0058.440.110.01
MarylandB100.560.0890.9167.700.450.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0822.2240.77-0.15-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0828.5741.30-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.090.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.69-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.18-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.070.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.36-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.50-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0049.99-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.280.0637.5041.84-0.07-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.13-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.280.0633.3331.37-0.09-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.590.0644.4449.01-0.07-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1128.93-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.530.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8643.73-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.580.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0622.2245.85-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.530.0611.1129.64-0.41-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.530.0637.5038.59-0.13-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.44-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.690.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.100.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.280.0657.1461.280.040.01
TempleAmer0.310.0660.0053.790.060.00
USCP120.280.0660.0037.230.06-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.72-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.510.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0077.970.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.810.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0612.5024.75-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0675.0049.720.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.940.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0072.770.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.87-0.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5064.520.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.15-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.090.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.430.000.01
DaytonA100.280.0677.7869.890.150.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.760.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.750.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.580.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.090.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.600.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0577.7871.830.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0520.0034.02-0.17-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0537.5048.87-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3332.85-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0588.8969.540.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0572.7373.120.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0550.0056.370.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0041.530.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0588.8963.530.000.01
SMUAmer0.280.0570.0071.340.110.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0016.94-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0320.0038.33-0.17-0.01
BYUWCC0.280.0366.6767.780.090.01
FIUCUSA0.310.0350.0054.660.000.00
Green BayHorz0.310.0375.0078.710.160.02
High PointBSth0.280.0362.5056.250.070.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.830.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.310.0350.0037.520.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.0357.1454.700.040.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.38-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0380.0071.020.000.01
BryantNEC0.280.0328.5747.24-0.12-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.600.000.01
CaliforniaP120.250.0390.0066.470.200.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.660.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.250.0375.0070.220.130.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.35-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.65-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0340.0050.48-0.050.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.460.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8638.32-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.250.0375.0058.890.130.01
Texas TechB120.250.0388.8955.730.190.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0053.980.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0091.070.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0040.49-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0341.6744.37-0.04-0.00
MichiganB100.250.0355.5642.690.03-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.0337.5038.03-0.06-0.01
New HampshireAE0.280.0357.1464.510.040.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.470.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.060.000.01
Penn St.B100.250.0390.9154.060.200.00
ProvidenceBE0.280.0372.7352.880.130.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0034.010.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.250.0360.0059.520.050.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.600.000.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.520.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5648.830.00-0.00