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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Marist

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:271.2
Current RPI:234
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:94
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9104.00.01%
18-10134.30.03%
17-11143.80.05%
16-12155.30.32%
15-13172.70.86%
14-14190.32.35%
13-15208.95.38%
12-16228.09.43%
11-17246.214.12%
10-18264.916.17%
9-19282.317.28%
8-20298.714.88%
7-21312.010.08%
6-22323.35.76%
5-23332.42.26%
4-24338.10.68%
3-25344.90.28%
2-26348.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Marist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Bucknell (225.6)PatA75-72L0%0.0
11-22Army (133.1)PatH62-76L0%0.0
11-24Florida Gulf Coast (97.7)ASunN43-58L0%0.0
12-1Boston College (162.2)ACCA0-016%-12.0
12-4Monmouth (168.1)MAACH0-041%-2.7
12-7Manhattan (185.5)MAACA0-021%-9.5
12-9Penn (314.3)IvyA0-049%-0.4
12-13VMI (272.1)SCA0-044%-1.8
12-20Saint Joseph's (204.6)A10H0-050%0.1
12-28Elon (229.8)CAAA0-032%-5.7
1-2Rider (216.0)MAACH0-053%1.0
1-4Saint Peter's (298.2)MAACA0-043%-2.2
1-8Canisius (144.2)MAACH0-041%-2.6
1-11Quinnipiac (129.8)MAACA0-016%-11.8
1-16Fairfield (252.9)MAACA0-043%-2.1
1-18Quinnipiac (129.8)MAACH0-035%-4.7
1-23Siena (147.2)MAACA0-018%-11.1
1-25Fairfield (252.9)MAACH0-066%5.1
1-30Niagara (305.4)MAACA0-054%1.2
2-1Canisius (144.2)MAACA0-021%-9.8
2-6Niagara (305.4)MAACH0-076%8.3
2-8Iona (63.9)MAACA0-09%-16.4
2-12Siena (147.2)MAACH0-037%-3.9
2-16Monmouth (168.1)MAACA0-021%-9.9
2-20Iona (63.9)MAACH0-022%-9.2
2-23Manhattan (185.5)MAACH0-042%-2.3
2-27Saint Peter's (298.2)MAACH0-066%5.0
3-1Rider (216.0)MAACA0-030%-6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Marist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Marist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Marist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MaristMAAC31.5326.460.0034.79-31.53-8.05
IonaMAAC0.004.7075.0073.180.002.18
MonmouthMAAC0.004.7050.0053.970.000.37
FairfieldMAAC0.004.6940.0032.74-0.00-1.62
NiagaraMAAC0.004.6933.3323.38-0.00-2.50
RiderMAAC0.004.6950.0046.760.00-0.30
SienaMAAC0.004.6933.3359.19-0.000.86
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.660.0027.28-0.00-2.12
CanisiusMAAC0.004.6666.6755.930.000.55
ManhattanMAAC0.004.6625.0051.09-0.000.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.6666.6765.470.001.44
PennIvy0.002.000.0023.68-0.00-1.05
BucknellPat16.671.970.0033.53-16.67-0.65
ArmyPat16.671.88100.0065.1516.670.57
Florida Gulf CoastASun16.671.84100.0072.9616.670.85
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.8250.0037.470.00-0.46
VMISC2.081.8233.3336.31-0.69-0.50
Boston CollegeACC0.001.7940.0036.96-0.00-0.47
ElonCAA0.001.7933.3340.48-0.00-0.34
MassachusettsA100.000.3780.0061.930.000.09
LehighPat0.000.310.0033.90-0.00-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.000.2850.0032.050.00-0.10
AlbanyAE0.000.2833.3364.13-0.000.08
CornellIvy0.000.2533.3337.47-0.00-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2533.3360.92-0.000.05
HartfordAE0.000.2475.0040.470.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.2466.6753.410.000.02
FordhamA100.000.240.0024.54-0.00-0.12
PittsburghACC0.000.2266.6751.570.000.01
VermontAE0.000.2133.3358.52-0.000.04
La SalleA100.000.21100.0054.280.000.02
NavyPat0.000.1920.0033.06-0.00-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.000.19100.0064.010.000.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.18100.0075.310.000.09
PrincetonIvy0.000.1825.0040.14-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.1880.0076.960.000.10
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.180.0031.34-0.00-0.07
RutgersB100.000.1866.6735.400.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.1675.0064.540.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.160.0029.07-0.00-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.160.0041.06-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.15100.0085.500.000.11
DrexelCAA0.000.1520.0035.62-0.00-0.04
WagnerNEC0.000.150.0042.28-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.1520.0021.70-0.00-0.08
AmericanPat0.000.1360.0057.920.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.1325.0038.68-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.1375.0069.180.000.05
BrownIvy0.000.1220.0037.46-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.120.0017.71-0.00-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6759.480.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1280.0059.570.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0070.420.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1260.0045.520.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1020.0025.79-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.1033.3323.97-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.000.100.0026.64-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.100.0028.12-0.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1066.6747.180.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.100.0020.52-0.00-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0966.6765.570.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0950.0067.730.000.03
VillanovaBE1.670.09100.0073.381.670.04
DavidsonA100.000.0950.0053.850.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0042.98-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0066.670.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.26-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC2.080.090.0055.84-2.080.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0038.810.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0023.63-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.070.0043.29-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0044.98-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3339.78-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0033.27-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.780.070.0055.80-2.780.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0766.6753.640.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6757.950.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0733.3352.75-0.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0740.0039.62-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0733.3354.64-0.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.80-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0066.800.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.460.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6746.440.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6774.460.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
USCP120.000.0640.0028.54-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0040.87-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0073.300.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3350.07-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.940.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.20-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.990.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0675.0072.970.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0078.600.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0072.950.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0064.210.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.090.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.85-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0065.950.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.43-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.590.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0039.30-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0047.380.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6738.720.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.360.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0450.0043.570.00-0.00
OhioMAC2.780.0450.0055.630.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0433.3350.01-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.04100.0080.240.000.02
Air ForceMWC2.080.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0036.18-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0041.460.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
MichiganB101.670.03100.0070.021.670.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.670.0333.3340.10-0.56-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
ToledoMAC1.670.0350.0065.370.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6764.880.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.000.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0081.370.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.46-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0070.800.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0071.170.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.060.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0041.560.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.230.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00