live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:312.0
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:250
Current Record:7-20
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:3-11
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:322
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20312.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA77-65L0%0.0
11-16Holy Cross (248.0)PatH71-55W100%0.0
11-18Niagara (315.0)MAACA75-66L0%0.0
11-21Providence (40.0)BEA94-73L0%0.0
11-24New Hampshire (177.0)AEH77-88L0%0.0
11-29SMU (13.0)AmerA77-69L0%0.0
12-2Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH82-64W100%0.0
12-5Bryant (320.0)NECA68-76W100%0.0
12-7Georgetown (106.0)BEA74-57L0%0.0
12-22Marist (318.0)MAACN83-84L0%0.0
12-28Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH81-73W100%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (119.0)A10H85-88L0%0.0
1-2Maine (317.0)AEA98-92L0%0.0
1-16Yale (44.0)IvyA77-68L0%0.0
1-22Yale (44.0)IvyH66-90L0%0.0
1-29Princeton (39.0)IvyH59-83L0%0.0
1-30Penn (283.0)IvyH89-83W100%0.0
2-5Cornell (244.0)IvyH86-80W100%0.0
2-6Columbia (132.0)IvyH73-77L0%0.0
2-12Harvard (193.0)IvyA79-73L0%0.0
2-13Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA87-70L0%0.0
2-19Penn (283.0)IvyA79-74L0%0.0
2-20Princeton (39.0)IvyA77-66L0%0.0
2-26Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH84-83W100%0.0
2-27Harvard (193.0)IvyH52-61L0%0.0
3-4Columbia (132.0)IvyA66-63L0%0.0
3-5Cornell (244.0)IvyA75-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy26.3426.3422.5222.52-14.47-14.47
DartmouthIvy4.644.6432.0032.00-1.67-1.67
YaleIvy4.614.6176.0076.002.402.40
HarvardIvy4.604.6038.4638.46-1.06-1.06
PennIvy4.544.5436.0036.00-1.27-1.27
CornellIvy4.544.5432.0032.00-1.64-1.64
PrincetonIvy4.544.5476.0076.002.362.36
ColumbiaIvy4.524.5262.9662.961.171.17
BryantNEC2.212.2124.1424.14-1.14-1.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.112.1144.8344.83-0.22-0.22
Central ConnecticutNEC2.082.0814.2914.29-1.49-1.49
New HampshireAE2.072.0757.1457.140.300.30
MaristMAAC2.072.0720.6920.69-1.21-1.21
MaineAE2.042.0424.1424.14-1.06-1.06
Holy CrossPat2.042.0443.7543.75-0.26-0.26
ProvidenceBE2.032.0368.7568.750.760.76
NiagaraMAAC1.981.9819.3519.35-1.21-1.21
SMUAmer1.951.9582.7682.761.281.28
GeorgetownBE1.941.9443.7543.75-0.24-0.24
Rhode IslandA101.911.9151.6151.610.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.851.8541.3841.38-0.32-0.32
VermontAE0.450.4560.6160.610.100.10
FairfieldMAAC0.410.4159.3859.380.080.08
HartfordAE0.410.4128.1228.12-0.18-0.18
AlbanyAE0.350.3574.1974.190.170.17
CanisiusMAAC0.350.3542.4242.42-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.330.3326.6726.67-0.15-0.15
RiderMAAC0.310.3139.3939.39-0.07-0.07
LafayettePat0.290.2920.0020.00-0.18-0.18
Saint Joseph'sA100.290.2979.4179.410.170.17
SienaMAAC0.280.2863.6463.640.080.08
MonmouthMAAC0.280.2879.4179.410.160.16
ManhattanMAAC0.280.2841.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.260.2631.2531.25-0.10-0.10
Stony BrookAE0.260.2680.0080.000.150.15
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.2551.6151.610.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.240.2430.0030.00-0.10-0.10
VillanovaBE0.240.2485.2985.290.170.17
HowardMEAC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.230.2335.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
LehighPat0.220.2251.6151.610.010.01
Seton HallBE0.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
IonaMAAC0.210.2168.7568.750.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
MassachusettsA100.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
NJITASun0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
ColgatePat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
MarquetteBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
St. John'sBE0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
ButlerBE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
DePaulBE0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
La SalleA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
MarylandB100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
NavyPat0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
AmericanPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01