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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:245.2
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:267
Current Record:4-6
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:223
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12108.20.06%
16-13124.00.15%
15-14147.50.51%
14-15167.32.11%
13-16187.25.37%
12-17206.911.28%
11-18226.817.37%
10-19245.520.96%
9-20263.519.06%
8-21278.913.38%
7-22292.76.80%
6-23304.42.47%
5-24311.60.44%
4-25327.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACH70-58W100%0.0
11-17Northwestern (143.6)B10H56-69L0%0.0
11-19Holy Cross (157.7)PatA80-65L0%0.0
11-22Indiana St. (240.2)MVCA78-66L0%0.0
11-24Illinois (46.3)B10A89-68L0%0.0
11-27Austin Peay (295.4)OVCN58-79L0%0.0
11-28Prairie View A&M (293.3)SWACN71-81W100%0.0
12-3American (98.4)PatH49-66L0%0.0
12-6Bryant (202.7)NECH69-62W100%0.0
12-8Providence (85.6)BEA67-77W100%0.0
12-22Central Connecticut (310.2)NECA0-047%-0.9
12-28Sacred Heart (163.4)NECH0-049%-0.2
12-31Rhode Island (65.3)A10A0-04%-20.5
1-5UMass Lowell (181.9)AEH0-055%1.5
1-8New Hampshire (160.6)AEA0-017%-11.3
1-17Yale (69.2)IvyH0-031%-5.9
1-24Yale (69.2)IvyA0-010%-14.9
1-30Cornell (182.5)IvyA0-021%-9.6
1-31Columbia (100.3)IvyA0-010%-15.5
2-6Harvard (46.0)IvyH0-021%-9.7
2-7Dartmouth (186.8)IvyH0-047%-1.0
2-13Princeton (239.2)IvyA0-026%-7.7
2-14Penn (276.5)IvyA0-034%-4.8
2-20Columbia (100.3)IvyH0-029%-6.5
2-21Cornell (182.5)IvyH0-048%-0.6
2-27Penn (276.5)IvyH0-064%4.2
2-28Princeton (239.2)IvyH0-054%1.3
3-6Dartmouth (186.8)IvyA0-020%-10.0
3-7Harvard (46.0)IvyA0-06%-18.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy27.7826.3139.1333.27-6.04-8.80
DartmouthIvy0.004.2844.4445.92-0.00-0.35
YaleIvy0.584.2870.0063.470.231.15
CornellIvy0.004.2555.5647.270.00-0.23
HarvardIvy0.364.2485.7172.610.261.92
PrincetonIvy0.234.2227.2736.35-0.10-1.15
ColumbiaIvy0.254.2162.5063.360.061.13
PennIvy0.004.1937.5030.95-0.00-1.60
BryantNEC5.002.0633.3348.60-1.67-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.361.9950.0058.010.000.32
UMass LowellAE0.001.9755.5654.700.000.19
New HampshireAE0.361.9157.1463.920.050.53
AmericanPat5.251.8855.5663.890.580.52
Holy CrossPat5.001.8850.0051.040.000.04
IllinoisB105.811.8766.6765.291.940.57
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.001.8440.0049.19-1.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.8422.2230.21-0.00-0.73
ProvidenceBE5.001.8180.0054.233.000.15
Indiana St.MVC5.531.7825.0032.13-2.76-0.64
Rhode IslandA100.231.7862.5071.910.060.78
Austin PeayOVC5.531.7812.5029.27-4.15-0.74
NorthwesternB105.001.7862.5042.881.25-0.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.001.720.0040.16-5.00-0.34
Stony BrookAE0.230.3737.5054.91-0.060.04
HartfordAE0.580.3650.0050.920.000.01
VermontAE0.360.3450.0060.040.000.07
LafayettePat0.000.3375.0069.750.000.13
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.3228.5741.09-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.3120.0042.53-0.00-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.3014.2933.61-0.00-0.10
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2833.3342.09-0.08-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.230.270.0011.93-0.23-0.21
Loyola MDPat0.000.2433.3326.81-0.00-0.11
AlbanyAE0.580.2433.3348.50-0.19-0.01
NJITind0.360.2436.3641.92-0.10-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2425.0040.22-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2425.0047.42-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.230.2120.0021.16-0.14-0.12
RiderMAAC0.000.2045.4551.71-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2037.5037.71-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.250.2042.8655.87-0.040.02
MaineAE0.000.1911.1121.00-0.00-0.11
LehighPat0.000.1942.8651.80-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1940.0036.16-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.360.1857.1456.000.050.02
La SalleA100.480.1850.0049.920.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.1890.9154.340.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1733.3343.11-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.230.1666.6741.850.08-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1660.0055.070.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.1510.0021.35-0.00-0.09
ArmyPat0.360.1577.7869.100.200.06
George MasonA100.000.1525.0025.93-0.00-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.1560.0050.220.060.00
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1550.0061.890.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1544.4456.62-0.000.02
VillanovaBE0.250.15100.0082.270.250.09
RutgersB100.230.1460.0035.390.05-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1255.5639.850.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.280.1225.0042.82-0.14-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1275.0060.540.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1210.0018.60-0.00-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1214.2932.16-0.16-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1288.8984.020.000.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1237.5046.01-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1237.5051.38-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6742.930.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.560.1180.0072.430.330.05
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.720.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1170.0070.960.000.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3340.42-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0928.5727.72-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5639.260.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0064.650.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0977.7877.550.000.05
KentuckySEC0.230.09100.0094.460.230.08
SyracuseACC0.360.0966.6757.080.120.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0933.3339.81-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.280.0955.5631.620.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.250.0960.0054.040.050.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0920.0020.84-0.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.280.0910.0018.39-0.22-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.0950.0056.650.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0990.0079.360.220.05
IonaMAAC0.280.0966.6772.270.090.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4440.58-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.660.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.920.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.400.000.02
Seton HallBE0.230.0888.8964.060.180.02
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.300.000.06
Arizona St.P120.000.0760.0053.940.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0750.0051.980.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0740.0044.19-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0783.3358.570.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0775.0061.240.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0086.080.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0662.5053.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0633.3338.84-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.130.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0622.2227.64-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5041.09-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0058.490.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.140.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.06-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.24-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0671.4367.660.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.560.0662.5078.030.140.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.950.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0620.0047.17-0.15-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.02-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.92-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0611.1130.96-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.65-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.770.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0065.960.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.57-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.29-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.780.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0633.3343.17-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5065.100.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0666.6773.810.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0610.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4360.170.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5732.96-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.790.000.01
MemphisAmer0.560.0650.0059.030.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0054.960.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.870.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.95-0.00-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.900.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1145.10-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.150.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0037.860.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.930.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0011.08-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.280.0677.7851.200.150.00
North FloridaASun0.280.0650.0061.230.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.060.0017.65-0.23-0.04
BaylorB120.530.0688.8975.070.410.03
HamptonMEAC0.250.0644.4449.79-0.03-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.560.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0037.01-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.220.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.250.0690.0075.840.200.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.850.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5064.670.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.140.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.910.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.570.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.73-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.900.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6751.450.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0056.190.000.00
SamfordSC0.280.0333.3331.09-0.09-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0041.450.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.740.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
TroySB0.280.0333.3341.99-0.09-0.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.0350.0049.220.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.360.0360.0056.480.070.00
Ball St.MAC0.280.0333.3347.31-0.09-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0344.4455.06-0.000.00
IUPUISum0.280.0320.0026.66-0.17-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.73-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.280.0388.8964.140.220.01
RiceCUSA0.280.0316.6725.01-0.19-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.020.000.01
TCUB120.280.03100.0067.440.280.01
Texas St.SB0.280.0360.0047.810.06-0.00
Texas TechB120.280.0387.5047.890.21-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.30-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0314.2944.11-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6753.260.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.0370.0066.510.100.01
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.009.06-0.25-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0033.87-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3363.180.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.030.0014.53-0.25-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5037.27-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.280.0337.5048.77-0.07-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.230.0344.4433.13-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0360.0064.120.050.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.280.0320.0039.53-0.17-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0330.0028.28-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.280.0322.2227.10-0.15-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.46-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0033.31-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.230.0390.9171.250.190.01
OregonP120.250.0362.5057.800.060.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.390.000.00