Brown

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	305.2
Current RPI:	303
Expected SOS:	226
Current SOS:	243
Current Record:	6-16
Expected Record:	7-23
Current Conf Record:	1-5
Expected Conf Record:	2-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-6
Current OOC Record:	5-11
Expected OOC Record:	5-11
Expected OOC RPI:	317
Expected OOC SOS:	308

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	265.4	0.10%
10-20	277.9	1.03%
9-21	289.1	7.00%
8-22	298.1	23.19%
7-23	306.2	40.91%
6-24	314.8	27.76%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Albany (208.3)	AE	N	77-68	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	N	52-54	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	59-52	W	100%	0.0
11-21	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	74-48	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	N	79-71	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	77-64	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Rhode Island (250.6)	A10	H	65-56	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Iowa (139.5)	B10	A	75-54	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Providence (146.8)	BE	A	80-49	L	0%	0.0
12-7	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	56-69	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	90-80	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	58-71	L	0%	0.0
12-29	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	66-49	L	0%	0.0
1-2	American (150.9)	Pat	H	61-70	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Longwood (311.5)	ind	H	77-79	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	A	68-64	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	H	60-73	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	60-67	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	66-59	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	59-68	L	0%	0.0
2-3	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	63-77	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	H	48-65	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		10%	-14.3
2-11	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		11%	-13.6
2-17	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	A	0-0		1%	-25.2
2-18	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-24	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		26%	-6.9
2-25	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	H	0-0		24%	-7.5
3-2	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	0-0		6%	-17.0
3-3	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	A	0-0		6%	-16.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Brown	Ivy	26.26	26.28	22.22	21.32	-14.59	-15.08
Yale	Ivy	5.01	4.17	68.75	60.12	1.88	0.84
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.71	4.16	15.00	15.84	-1.90	-2.84
Columbia	Ivy	0.31	4.10	55.00	52.63	0.03	0.22
Cornell	Ivy	0.31	4.09	36.84	38.24	-0.08	-0.96
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.50	4.08	52.38	54.07	0.12	0.33
Harvard	Ivy	2.55	4.07	90.00	87.05	2.04	3.02
Princeton	Ivy	2.45	4.04	44.44	49.48	-0.27	-0.04
Albany	AE	2.68	2.05	58.33	59.10	0.45	0.37
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.70	1.99	41.67	44.08	-0.45	-0.24
Bryant	NEC	2.70	1.98	8.70	11.23	-2.23	-1.54
Hartford	AE	2.76	1.96	18.18	21.71	-1.75	-1.11
New Hampshire	AE	2.62	1.95	31.58	36.22	-0.97	-0.54
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.73	1.92	47.62	47.39	-0.13	-0.10
Monmouth	NEC	2.61	1.92	29.17	29.87	-1.09	-0.77
Maine	AE	2.47	1.87	47.37	47.80	-0.13	-0.08
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.51	1.86	54.55	54.37	0.23	0.16
Rhode Island	A10	2.55	1.82	21.74	21.29	-1.44	-1.04
Manhattan	MAAC	2.37	1.81	66.67	68.04	0.79	0.65
American	Pat	2.27	1.79	63.64	62.50	0.62	0.45
George Mason	CAA	2.46	1.77	75.00	71.59	1.23	0.77
Providence	BE	2.42	1.75	54.55	48.61	0.22	-0.05
Longwood	ind	2.33	1.72	26.32	25.07	-1.10	-0.86
Iowa	B10	2.27	1.67	52.17	47.76	0.10	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.54	0.44	40.91	42.05	-0.10	-0.07
Vermont	AE	0.55	0.41	60.00	62.49	0.11	0.10
Stony Brook	AE	0.30	0.38	66.67	68.05	0.10	0.14
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.38	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.51	0.37	56.52	57.15	0.07	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.40	0.37	82.61	84.57	0.26	0.25
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.46	0.35	13.64	16.35	-0.34	-0.23
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.35	0.34	8.70	12.13	-0.29	-0.26
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.43	0.34	26.09	28.60	-0.21	-0.14
Binghamton	AE	0.31	0.32	0.00	4.02	-0.31	-0.30
Lafayette	Pat	0.30	0.31	43.48	42.95	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.34	0.31	68.00	70.03	0.12	0.12
Army	Pat	0.44	0.30	40.91	41.72	-0.08	-0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.19	0.28	70.83	71.05	0.08	0.12
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.33	0.28	21.74	22.76	-0.19	-0.15
Bucknell	Pat	0.21	0.26	73.91	75.00	0.10	0.13
Colgate	Pat	0.30	0.26	30.43	29.50	-0.12	-0.11
Marist	MAAC	0.25	0.26	34.78	33.43	-0.08	-0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.25	0.22	37.50	38.52	-0.06	-0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.25	0.20	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.30	0.20	30.43	26.44	-0.12	-0.09
Elon	SC	0.11	0.18	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.17	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.20	0.17	65.22	62.65	0.06	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.17	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.16	0.17	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.19	0.16	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.28	0.15	65.22	63.74	0.09	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.15	73.91	74.91	0.05	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.14	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.14	9.52	13.19	-0.16	-0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.14	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.20	0.14	70.83	68.82	0.08	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.14	32.00	35.39	-0.07	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.14	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.04	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.12	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.12	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.12	33.33	38.38	-0.05	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.12	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.12	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.15	0.11	71.43	66.60	0.06	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.15	0.11	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.11	37.50	41.54	-0.05	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.11	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.11	4.00	5.26	-0.13	-0.10
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.11	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.11	95.83	92.01	0.17	0.09
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.09	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.09	36.36	38.48	-0.04	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.09	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.08	17.39	19.81	-0.07	-0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.08	77.27	73.45	0.06	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.08	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.08	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.08	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.08	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.08	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.08	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.08	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.00	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.05	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.05	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.05	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.05	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.05	62.50	61.50	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.05	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.05	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.05	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.05	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.00	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01