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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:272.3
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:284
Current SOS:281
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8125.00.01%
19-9104.50.02%
18-10142.60.08%
17-11169.80.65%
16-12191.22.22%
15-13213.26.10%
14-14234.410.95%
13-15254.917.66%
12-16274.420.16%
11-17290.818.64%
10-18305.312.70%
9-19317.86.90%
8-20326.82.97%
7-21334.40.72%
6-22339.40.20%
5-23337.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA84-55L0%0.0
11-13Niagara (304.2)MAACH88-79W100%0.0
11-16Rhode Island (33.6)A10A79-72L0%0.0
11-19Marist (236.1)MAACN79-87L0%0.0
11-20Albany (156.7)AEN80-76L0%0.0
11-23Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH81-75W100%0.0
11-28Bryant (194.6)NECH91-90W100%0.0
11-30St. Francis NY (314.7)NECH81-71W100%0.0
12-3Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA0-050%0.1
12-6Providence (75.1)BEA0-06%-18.7
12-22Maine (310.8)AEH0-077%8.9
12-29Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACH0-063%4.0
12-31Stony Brook (298.6)AEH0-068%5.5
1-4NJIT (192.6)ASunA0-030%-6.4
1-13Princeton (95.0)IvyA0-010%-15.1
1-14Penn (138.5)IvyA0-015%-12.2
1-20Yale (103.3)IvyH0-025%-8.1
1-27Yale (103.3)IvyA0-012%-14.3
2-3Cornell (260.9)IvyA0-042%-2.5
2-4Columbia (253.3)IvyA0-034%-4.9
2-10Harvard (224.3)IvyH0-043%-2.3
2-11Dartmouth (310.5)IvyH0-069%6.1
2-17Penn (138.5)IvyH0-031%-6.0
2-18Princeton (95.0)IvyH0-023%-8.9
2-24Dartmouth (310.5)IvyA0-050%-0.1
2-25Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-024%-8.4
3-3Columbia (253.3)IvyH0-054%1.3
3-4Cornell (260.9)IvyH0-062%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy28.8726.3742.8639.34-4.12-5.62
DartmouthIvy0.894.510.0022.12-0.89-2.51
ColumbiaIvy0.004.5142.8641.36-0.00-0.78
YaleIvy0.454.4833.3362.68-0.151.14
PennIvy0.004.4240.0056.46-0.000.57
CornellIvy0.004.4228.5729.23-0.00-1.84
HarvardIvy0.004.410.0040.98-0.00-0.80
PrincetonIvy0.004.3925.0062.34-0.001.08
AlbanyAE6.702.2040.0059.01-1.340.40
MaineAE0.002.1316.6725.70-0.00-1.04
BryantNEC6.252.1133.3351.93-2.080.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.002.0740.0037.22-0.00-0.53
MaristMAAC6.702.0333.3333.54-2.23-0.67
Stony BrookAE0.002.0116.6733.88-0.00-0.65
QuinnipiacMAAC0.002.0016.6734.22-0.00-0.63
St. Francis NYNEC6.251.9720.0030.38-3.75-0.77
Rhode IslandA107.141.9466.6769.312.380.75
NiagaraMAAC6.251.9020.0027.93-3.75-0.84
ProvidenceBE0.521.8871.4355.020.220.19
CincinnatiAmer7.221.8583.3380.324.811.12
NJITASun0.001.8242.8649.57-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC6.251.7920.0038.46-3.75-0.41
VermontAE0.450.4762.5071.630.110.21
HartfordAE0.520.4012.5022.55-0.39-0.22
UMass LowellAE0.450.3425.0040.81-0.22-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.3171.4371.570.000.13
FairfieldMAAC0.000.3183.3362.080.000.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.3183.3357.990.000.05
New HampshireAE0.000.3150.0057.480.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.2842.8640.94-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.520.2728.5750.51-0.220.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2650.0046.780.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.2633.3331.87-0.00-0.10
HoustonAmer0.520.2683.3376.370.350.14
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2542.8638.05-0.00-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2525.0039.28-0.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2440.0043.86-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.2433.3353.85-0.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2433.3338.19-0.00-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2333.3341.52-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.2271.4363.570.000.06
Holy CrossPat0.520.2242.8647.69-0.07-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2120.0034.22-0.00-0.07
IonaMAAC0.000.2160.0070.140.000.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2060.0052.760.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.2057.1448.240.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2050.0027.250.00-0.09
ColgatePat0.000.2020.0041.31-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1971.4354.520.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1812.5048.98-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.1880.0055.340.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1750.0047.990.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.170.0038.26-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.1733.3367.01-0.000.06
NavyPat0.000.1628.5743.62-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1683.3358.080.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.1371.4365.740.000.04
FordhamA100.000.1357.1443.680.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.130.0034.18-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.520.13100.0082.550.520.08
La SalleA100.000.1360.0051.780.000.00
DrexelCAA0.520.1242.8636.82-0.07-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1283.3374.620.000.06
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0083.120.000.08
RutgersB100.520.1283.3344.770.35-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1057.1444.160.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.1057.1440.550.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.1033.3345.58-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.1085.7178.150.000.06
DelawareCAA0.000.1040.0040.65-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.1057.1442.940.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.1025.0024.66-0.00-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1066.6765.810.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.520.090.0024.19-0.52-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
LipscombASun0.450.0914.2933.07-0.32-0.03
Penn St.B100.970.0962.5043.960.24-0.01
DukeACC0.890.0987.5078.680.670.05
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0075.690.000.04
XavierBE0.000.09100.0074.800.000.04
StanfordP120.000.0775.0059.100.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0775.0067.660.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0771.4368.660.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0783.3363.610.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0750.0050.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0740.0050.71-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0785.7155.550.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0757.1452.630.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
TroySB0.000.0733.3332.23-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.07100.0075.380.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0760.0048.590.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.520.0650.0054.490.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.520.0633.3343.64-0.17-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.450.06100.0091.060.450.05
BuffaloMAC0.520.0640.0050.91-0.100.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.970.0650.0056.260.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.520.0325.0033.54-0.26-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
High PointBSth0.520.0350.0051.260.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
BelmontOVC0.450.0340.0061.37-0.090.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.450.0366.6751.460.150.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.450.0320.0032.60-0.27-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.520.0371.4350.570.220.00
NorthwesternB100.450.0371.4366.220.190.01
Notre DameACC0.450.03100.0075.010.450.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.520.0325.0024.28-0.26-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0385.7174.430.320.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.450.0371.4368.970.190.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.520.0340.0030.80-0.10-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
SamfordSC0.450.0357.1455.810.060.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01