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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:290.8
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:203
Current Record:6-13
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:317
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14205.00.03%
12-15222.70.49%
11-16243.03.74%
10-17263.413.47%
9-18282.027.48%
8-19298.431.28%
7-20313.619.10%
6-21325.44.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACA77-65L0%0.0
11-16Holy Cross (289.7)PatH71-55W100%0.0
11-18Niagara (308.3)MAACA75-66L0%0.0
11-21Providence (45.4)BEA94-73L0%0.0
11-24New Hampshire (194.6)AEH77-88L0%0.0
11-29SMU (11.5)AmerA77-69L0%0.0
12-2Central Connecticut (350.3)NECH82-64W100%0.0
12-5Bryant (318.1)NECA68-76W100%0.0
12-7Georgetown (70.3)BEA74-57L0%0.0
12-22Marist (313.2)MAACN83-84L0%0.0
12-28Bethune Cookman (301.5)MEACH81-73W100%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (97.3)A10H85-88L0%0.0
1-2Maine (304.0)AEA98-92L0%0.0
1-16Yale (55.4)IvyA77-68L0%0.0
1-22Yale (55.4)IvyH66-90L0%0.0
1-29Princeton (52.6)IvyH59-83L0%0.0
1-30Penn (277.2)IvyH89-83W100%0.0
2-5Cornell (209.2)IvyH86-80W100%0.0
2-6Columbia (125.6)IvyH73-77L0%0.0
2-12Harvard (213.7)IvyA0-019%-9.6
2-13Dartmouth (290.9)IvyA0-035%-4.3
2-19Penn (277.2)IvyA0-032%-5.0
2-20Princeton (52.6)IvyA0-05%-18.1
2-26Dartmouth (290.9)IvyH0-059%2.4
2-27Harvard (213.7)IvyH0-039%-2.9
3-4Columbia (125.6)IvyA0-013%-12.4
3-5Cornell (209.2)IvyA0-037%-3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy26.2926.3526.5129.81-12.35-10.64
DartmouthIvy0.514.6431.5830.02-0.19-1.85
HarvardIvy0.444.6135.0036.01-0.13-1.29
YaleIvy5.714.6170.5972.662.352.09
CornellIvy2.964.5544.4440.91-0.33-0.83
PrincetonIvy2.904.5570.5972.871.202.08
PennIvy2.904.5441.1837.93-0.51-1.10
ColumbiaIvy2.914.5265.0063.120.871.19
BryantNEC3.052.2126.0927.30-1.46-1.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.942.1138.1041.19-0.70-0.37
Central ConnecticutNEC3.012.0813.6414.03-2.19-1.50
MaristMAAC2.862.0818.1821.48-1.82-1.19
New HampshireAE2.912.0855.0052.220.290.09
MaineAE2.872.0530.4330.74-1.12-0.79
Holy CrossPat2.862.0540.9139.68-0.52-0.42
ProvidenceBE2.792.0473.9170.021.340.82
NiagaraMAAC2.751.9820.8322.03-1.60-1.11
SMUAmer2.831.9590.4885.632.291.39
GeorgetownBE2.741.9454.1751.260.230.05
Rhode IslandA102.741.9156.5255.740.360.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.631.8533.3337.43-0.88-0.47
HartfordAE0.540.4325.0026.75-0.27-0.20
VermontAE0.420.4052.0054.860.020.04
FairfieldMAAC0.370.3954.1754.140.030.03
AlbanyAE0.490.3676.0076.310.260.19
CanisiusMAAC0.240.3344.0045.31-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.410.3240.0042.11-0.08-0.05
LafayettePat0.330.3021.7423.00-0.19-0.16
BinghamtonAE0.380.3020.8324.09-0.22-0.16
Saint Joseph'sA100.370.2982.6178.910.240.17
SienaMAAC0.460.2964.0064.140.130.08
MonmouthMAAC0.350.2980.0081.160.210.18
Stony BrookAE0.250.2681.8282.630.160.17
Robert MorrisNEC0.360.2628.0030.73-0.16-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.2647.8348.87-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.330.2536.3636.15-0.09-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.240.2334.7835.65-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.190.2336.3638.92-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.2350.0051.920.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.2334.7837.05-0.09-0.06
Seton HallBE0.170.2273.9169.970.080.09
ManhattanMAAC0.230.2242.8642.05-0.03-0.04
IonaMAAC0.390.2260.8760.720.090.05
BucknellPat0.250.2054.5558.160.020.03
LehighPat0.260.2036.3639.78-0.07-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.230.1929.1726.74-0.10-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.230.1973.9172.480.110.09
VillanovaBE0.240.1987.5086.910.180.14
ColgatePat0.250.1743.4844.80-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.120.1622.7324.97-0.06-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1654.1755.600.010.02
NJITASun0.260.1654.1755.280.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1637.5043.38-0.04-0.02
ArmyPat0.220.1654.1754.580.020.01
WagnerNEC0.170.1663.6465.020.050.05
MassachusettsA100.110.1640.9139.33-0.02-0.03
MarquetteBE0.160.1562.5056.050.040.02
St. John'sBE0.210.1525.0023.40-0.11-0.08
NavyPat0.190.1362.5062.370.050.03
UMBCAE0.170.1324.0026.33-0.09-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.190.1359.0961.320.040.03
WoffordSC0.060.1343.4846.22-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.250.1375.0071.800.120.06
La SalleA100.180.1320.0020.46-0.11-0.08
MarylandB100.180.1387.5083.700.140.09
AmericanPat0.170.1330.4331.91-0.07-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1329.1733.74-0.07-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1340.0045.50-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.220.1350.0049.460.00-0.00
FordhamA100.170.1255.0052.190.020.01
ButlerBE0.160.1269.5767.150.060.04
CreightonBE0.160.1264.0062.090.040.03
DePaulBE0.160.1233.3334.01-0.05-0.04
XavierBE0.110.1287.5081.810.080.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.109.0912.24-0.11-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1043.4850.65-0.020.00
StanfordP120.060.1050.0046.540.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.130.1063.6459.810.040.02
George MasonA100.130.1033.3333.68-0.04-0.03
IllinoisB100.190.1045.8344.13-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.120.1066.6762.530.040.02
KansasB120.060.1082.6179.190.040.06
DelawareCAA0.120.1021.7423.34-0.07-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0929.1733.12-0.02-0.03
HoustonAmer0.170.0969.5766.580.070.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0766.6767.700.000.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0713.6418.15-0.05-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0752.1751.510.000.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.7836.50-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0725.0029.30-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0782.6177.520.050.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0772.7367.630.030.02
USCP120.140.0778.2673.050.080.03
WashingtonP120.070.0765.2261.100.020.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0739.1335.43-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6769.490.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0745.8346.64-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0786.9682.650.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0625.0025.08-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.120.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.8758.300.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0634.7837.17-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0625.0033.22-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0664.0062.060.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0652.1754.170.000.01
StetsonASun0.060.0623.8127.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.110.0678.2674.410.060.03
Kent St.MAC0.120.0665.2260.590.040.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.0645.0049.25-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.120.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
RichmondA100.110.0654.5554.470.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0672.0071.540.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0643.4841.96-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0660.8760.820.010.01
MichiganB100.110.0669.5766.220.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.120.0620.0019.68-0.07-0.04
TulaneAmer0.060.0633.3332.36-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0665.2261.470.020.01
TCUB120.110.0645.8339.34-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0686.9682.300.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0656.5262.790.010.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.0671.4368.940.050.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.80-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0382.6181.140.040.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0314.2920.67-0.04-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0382.6181.120.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.89-0.04-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0321.7420.37-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0347.8350.19-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0360.8762.040.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0379.1778.090.030.02
ColoradoP120.060.0369.5765.330.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0378.2676.810.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0318.1821.15-0.04-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.91-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0360.0057.940.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.430.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.250.030.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.600.030.02
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.880.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.300.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.54-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.200.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.420.030.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.970.000.01
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.830.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01