Brown

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	298.0
Current RPI:	298
Expected SOS:	321
Current SOS:	321
Current Record:	10-16
Expected Record:	10-16
Current Conf Record:	4-10
Expected Conf Record:	4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	233
Expected OOC SOS:	320

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-16	298.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	72-79	W	100%
11-19	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	77-74	L	0%
11-22	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	77-64	L	0%
11-25	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	94-86	W	100%
11-26	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	67-81	W	100%
11-28	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	86-62	L	0%
12-2	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	62-68	L	0%
12-6	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	77-72	L	0%
12-9	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	89-75	W	100%
12-22	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	90-69	W	100%
12-30	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	95-73	L	0%
1-3	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	70-69	W	100%
1-12	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	78-72	L	0%
1-19	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	81-80	W	100%
1-26	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	64-62	W	100%
1-27	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	77-86	L	0%
2-2	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	95-90	L	0%
2-3	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	100-102	W	100%
2-9	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	60-78	L	0%
2-10	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	91-88	W	100%
2-16	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	65-58	L	0%
2-17	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	66-63	L	0%
2-23	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	89-82	L	0%
2-24	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	73-68	L	0%
3-2	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	63-78	L	0%
3-3	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	93-99	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Brown	Ivy	26.33	26.33	38.18	38.18	-6.22	-6.22
Harvard	Ivy	4.81	4.81	53.57	53.57	0.34	0.34
Penn	Ivy	4.81	4.81	72.41	72.41	2.15	2.15
Yale	Ivy	4.77	4.77	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	4.76	4.76	36.00	36.00	-1.33	-1.33
Columbia	Ivy	4.71	4.71	25.00	25.00	-2.36	-2.36
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.71	4.71	20.83	20.83	-2.75	-2.75
Princeton	Ivy	4.66	4.66	42.31	42.31	-0.72	-0.72
Bryant	NEC	2.25	2.25	10.00	10.00	-1.80	-1.80
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	2.24	2.24	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
UMass Lowell	AE	2.18	2.18	39.29	39.29	-0.47	-0.47
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.14	2.14	41.94	41.94	-0.35	-0.35
Quinnipiac	MAAC	2.13	2.13	37.50	37.50	-0.53	-0.53
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.13	2.13	35.71	35.71	-0.61	-0.61
Stony Brook	AE	2.12	2.12	36.67	36.67	-0.57	-0.57
Marist	MAAC	2.01	2.01	20.00	20.00	-1.21	-1.21
NJIT	ASun	1.99	1.99	44.44	44.44	-0.22	-0.22
Providence	BE	1.98	1.98	60.61	60.61	0.42	0.42
Rhode Island	A10	1.95	1.95	77.42	77.42	1.07	1.07
Northwestern	B10	1.92	1.92	43.33	43.33	-0.26	-0.26
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.41	0.41	30.00	30.00	-0.17	-0.17
Albany	AE	0.40	0.40	67.74	67.74	0.14	0.14
Vermont	AE	0.39	0.39	78.79	78.79	0.22	0.22
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.38	0.38	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
Wagner	NEC	0.37	0.37	70.00	70.00	0.15	0.15
Maine	AE	0.34	0.34	13.33	13.33	-0.25	-0.25
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.28	0.28	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.28	0.28	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.27	0.27	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.27	0.27	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Monmouth	MAAC	0.25	0.25	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.25	0.25	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.23	0.23	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Canisius	MAAC	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.22	0.22	88.24	88.24	0.17	0.17
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.22	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.21	0.21	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Creighton	BE	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.17	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.16	0.16	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.16	0.16	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.16	0.16	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Longwood	BSth	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Loyola MD	Pat	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	Pat	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01