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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:229.0
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:301
Current SOS:301
Current Record:14-13
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:7-7
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13229.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Binghamton (325.0)AEH74-57W100%0.0
11-13Providence (40.0)BEA73-69L0%0.0
11-16Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA73-85W100%0.0
11-19UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA76-87W100%0.0
11-22Longwood (337.0)BSthA69-81W100%0.0
11-27Bryant (177.0)NECA70-67L0%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH72-61W100%0.0
12-7American (118.0)PatA67-72W100%0.0
12-10Albany (185.0)AEH68-74L0%0.0
12-22Northwestern (123.0)B10A58-52L0%0.0
12-29Niagara (302.0)MAACA68-65L0%0.0
1-2Rhode Island (155.0)A10H66-75L0%0.0
1-7New Hampshire (340.0)AEH72-68W100%0.0
1-18Yale (147.0)IvyA74-67L0%0.0
1-25Yale (147.0)IvyH73-56W100%0.0
1-31Cornell (334.0)IvyH78-66W100%0.0
2-1Columbia (130.0)IvyH64-56W100%0.0
2-7Harvard (46.0)IvyA52-45L0%0.0
2-8Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA62-75W100%0.0
2-14Princeton (122.0)IvyH65-69L0%0.0
2-15Penn (284.0)IvyH62-55W100%0.0
2-21Columbia (130.0)IvyA70-68L0%0.0
2-22Cornell (334.0)IvyA75-81W100%0.0
2-28Penn (284.0)IvyA67-76W100%0.0
3-1Princeton (122.0)IvyA69-64L0%0.0
3-7Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH68-75L0%0.0
3-8Harvard (46.0)IvyH93-98L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy26.3326.3354.2654.262.252.25
YaleIvy4.684.6852.0052.000.190.19
DartmouthIvy4.634.6337.5037.50-1.16-1.16
ColumbiaIvy4.584.5860.7160.710.980.98
HarvardIvy4.544.5485.1985.193.203.20
PennIvy4.544.5430.7730.77-1.74-1.74
CornellIvy4.534.534.004.00-4.17-4.17
PrincetonIvy4.504.5068.0068.001.621.62
New HampshireAE2.302.3017.8617.86-1.48-1.48
BryantNEC2.242.2453.3353.330.150.15
UMass LowellAE2.202.2034.6234.62-0.68-0.68
BinghamtonAE2.142.1424.1424.14-1.11-1.11
AlbanyAE2.112.1154.8454.840.200.20
Sacred HeartNEC2.082.0816.6716.67-1.38-1.38
Central ConnecticutNEC2.072.0735.7135.71-0.59-0.59
ProvidenceBE1.951.9566.6766.670.650.65
Rhode IslandA101.951.9540.0040.00-0.39-0.39
LongwoodBSth1.921.9214.8114.81-1.35-1.35
NiagaraMAAC1.921.9218.7518.75-1.20-1.20
AmericanPat1.911.9164.5264.520.560.56
NorthwesternB101.851.8540.6240.62-0.35-0.35
VermontAE0.570.5766.6766.670.190.19
HartfordAE0.480.4851.5251.520.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.410.4168.7568.750.150.15
MaineAE0.380.3817.8617.86-0.24-0.24
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.3131.0331.03-0.12-0.12
UMBCAE0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
LafayettePat0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
ColgatePat0.280.2840.0040.00-0.06-0.06
NJITind0.260.2636.0036.00-0.07-0.07
WagnerNEC0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.250.2532.2632.26-0.09-0.09
St. John'sBE0.250.2562.5062.500.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.240.2459.3859.380.050.05
George MasonA100.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.200.2046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
RiderMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
IowaB100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Michigan St.B100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
RutgersAmer0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
PortlandWCC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
ArmyPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
NavyPat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00