Brown

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	241.0
Current RPI:	241
Expected SOS:	295
Current SOS:	295
Current Record:	12-15
Expected Record:	12-15
Current Conf Record:	7-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-6
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	259
Expected OOC SOS:	278

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-15	241.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	49-58	W	100%
11-15	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	A	86-71	L	0%
11-17	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	68-70	W	100%
11-21	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	61-68	L	0%
11-24	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	72-76	L	0%
11-29	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	69-56	W	100%
12-1	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	63-50	L	0%
12-8	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	84-57	L	0%
12-23	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	63-42	L	0%
12-28	Providence (91.0)	BE	H	69-68	W	100%
12-31	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	57-50	L	0%
1-4	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	A	59-47	L	0%
1-8	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	75-74	W	100%
1-19	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	65-51	W	100%
1-26	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	76-64	L	0%
2-1	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	50-62	W	100%
2-2	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	89-82	L	0%
2-8	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	63-46	L	0%
2-9	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	71-48	L	0%
2-15	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	58-55	W	100%
2-16	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	66-69	L	0%
2-22	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	47-65	L	0%
2-23	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	59-50	W	100%
3-1	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	65-84	W	100%
3-2	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	58-61	W	100%
3-8	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	64-66	L	0%
3-9	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	80-67	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Brown	Ivy	26.32	26.32	46.28	46.28	-1.96	-1.96
Yale	Ivy	4.60	4.60	40.74	40.74	-0.85	-0.85
Dartmouth	Ivy	4.59	4.59	32.00	32.00	-1.65	-1.65
Pennsylvania	Ivy	4.54	4.54	24.14	24.14	-2.35	-2.35
Cornell	Ivy	4.54	4.54	39.29	39.29	-0.97	-0.97
Harvard	Ivy	4.49	4.49	64.00	64.00	1.26	1.26
Princeton	Ivy	4.49	4.49	60.00	60.00	0.90	0.90
Columbia	Ivy	4.49	4.49	41.67	41.67	-0.75	-0.75
Bryant	NEC	2.24	2.24	62.07	62.07	0.54	0.54
New Hampshire	AE	2.23	2.23	25.93	25.93	-1.07	-1.07
Binghamton	AE	2.19	2.19	7.14	7.14	-1.88	-1.88
Maine	AE	2.13	2.13	35.71	35.71	-0.61	-0.61
Albany	AE	2.11	2.11	69.70	69.70	0.83	0.83
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.10	2.10	32.14	32.14	-0.75	-0.75
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.04	2.04	41.38	41.38	-0.35	-0.35
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.00	2.00	37.93	37.93	-0.48	-0.48
Providence	BE	1.94	1.94	56.67	56.67	0.26	0.26
Notre Dame	BE	1.91	1.91	72.73	72.73	0.87	0.87
Rhode Island	A10	1.88	1.88	25.00	25.00	-0.94	-0.94
Niagara	MAAC	1.88	1.88	61.29	61.29	0.42	0.42
Northwestern	B10	1.85	1.85	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Vermont	AE	0.57	0.57	65.62	65.62	0.18	0.18
Stony Brook	AE	0.46	0.46	76.67	76.67	0.25	0.25
Hartford	AE	0.40	0.40	56.67	56.67	0.05	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.40	0.40	61.29	61.29	0.09	0.09
Holy Cross	Pat	0.40	0.40	40.00	40.00	-0.08	-0.08
Boston University	AE	0.38	0.38	58.62	58.62	0.07	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.35	0.35	34.38	34.38	-0.11	-0.11
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.34	0.34	23.33	23.33	-0.18	-0.18
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.34	0.34	17.24	17.24	-0.22	-0.22
Army	Pat	0.33	0.33	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.31	0.31	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.30	0.30	84.38	84.38	0.21	0.21
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.28	0.28	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.26	0.26	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.26	0.26	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.25	0.25	69.70	69.70	0.10	0.10
Fordham	A10	0.23	0.23	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
Villanova	BE	0.22	0.22	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Elon	SC	0.21	0.21	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.19	74.29	74.29	0.09	0.09
Rutgers	BE	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.18	22.58	22.58	-0.10	-0.10
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.16	81.25	81.25	0.10	0.10
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Butler	A10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.09	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00