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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:267.8
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:98
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9143.00.01%
18-10109.00.02%
17-11145.40.13%
16-12158.60.77%
15-13180.42.36%
14-14200.74.84%
13-15221.28.78%
12-16241.713.49%
11-17260.217.94%
10-18279.318.29%
9-19296.515.04%
8-20309.110.16%
7-21321.65.12%
6-22330.62.16%
5-23338.20.73%
4-24345.20.14%
3-25346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Saint Peter's (299.8)MAACH70-58W100%0.0
11-17Northwestern (169.8)B10H56-69L0%0.0
11-19Holy Cross (110.9)PatA80-65L0%0.0
11-22Indiana St. (158.5)MVCA78-66L0%0.0
11-24Illinois (42.0)B10A0-04%-21.4
11-27Austin Peay (306.5)OVCN0-059%2.9
12-3American (131.5)PatH0-040%-3.2
12-6Bryant (169.0)NECH0-049%-0.2
12-8Providence (28.6)BEA0-04%-21.4
12-22Central Connecticut (300.7)NECA0-048%-0.5
12-28Sacred Heart (290.5)NECH0-070%6.4
12-31Rhode Island (105.2)A10A0-012%-14.0
1-5UMass Lowell (294.7)AEH0-076%8.6
1-8New Hampshire (274.9)AEA0-041%-2.7
1-17Yale (86.0)IvyH0-030%-6.4
1-24Yale (86.0)IvyA0-013%-13.6
1-30Cornell (261.9)IvyA0-037%-4.0
1-31Columbia (131.8)IvyA0-016%-12.0
2-6Harvard (76.9)IvyH0-022%-9.1
2-7Dartmouth (291.9)IvyH0-067%5.2
2-13Princeton (253.8)IvyA0-033%-5.2
2-14Penn (313.4)IvyA0-048%-0.6
2-20Columbia (131.8)IvyH0-034%-4.8
2-21Cornell (261.9)IvyH0-061%3.2
2-27Penn (313.4)IvyH0-071%6.6
2-28Princeton (253.8)IvyH0-057%2.0
3-6Dartmouth (291.9)IvyA0-043%-2.0
3-7Harvard (76.9)IvyA0-09%-16.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy33.3326.3418.7536.40-20.83-7.17
DartmouthIvy0.004.450.0034.92-0.00-1.34
YaleIvy0.004.4566.6761.350.001.01
CornellIvy0.004.4140.0039.77-0.00-0.90
HarvardIvy3.124.4150.0066.590.001.46
ColumbiaIvy0.004.3850.0061.630.001.02
PrincetonIvy0.004.3825.0039.78-0.00-0.89
PennIvy0.004.350.0024.45-0.00-2.22
BryantNEC0.002.1350.0055.060.000.22
Sacred HeartNEC0.002.0650.0038.170.00-0.49
UMass LowellAE0.002.0450.0034.900.00-0.62
New HampshireAE0.001.970.0041.33-0.00-0.34
AmericanPat0.001.9550.0054.420.000.17
Holy CrossPat12.501.94100.0061.9512.500.46
IllinoisB100.001.94100.0066.090.000.62
Saint Peter'sMAAC12.501.920.0029.30-12.50-0.79
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.910.0034.81-0.00-0.58
ProvidenceBE0.001.88100.0068.780.000.71
Indiana St.MVC12.501.8550.0050.250.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.001.850.0030.87-0.00-0.71
Rhode IslandA100.001.85100.0054.980.000.18
NorthwesternB1012.501.85100.0040.1212.50-0.36
Stony BrookAE0.000.3933.3364.76-0.000.11
HartfordAE1.560.3875.0042.500.78-0.06
VermontAE0.000.3533.3358.93-0.000.06
LafayettePat0.000.3575.0064.270.000.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.3450.0038.370.00-0.08
ColgatePat0.000.3233.3341.16-0.00-0.06
WagnerNEC0.000.310.0045.12-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2933.3359.57-0.000.06
BinghamtonAE0.000.290.0034.71-0.00-0.09
Loyola MDPat0.000.2650.0031.980.00-0.09
AlbanyAE0.000.2533.3362.56-0.000.06
NJITind0.000.2525.0025.21-0.00-0.12
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.240.0043.84-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.240.0056.24-0.000.03
NavyPat0.000.220.0032.62-0.00-0.08
RiderMAAC0.000.2266.6751.290.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2133.3336.55-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2133.3343.68-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.190.0018.23-0.00-0.12
La SalleA101.560.19100.0053.841.560.01
BucknellPat0.000.1925.0035.71-0.00-0.05
LehighPat0.000.190.0036.87-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.19100.0076.190.000.10
Penn St.B100.000.1975.0047.170.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1825.0041.91-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1775.0060.410.000.03
George MasonA100.000.1625.0019.94-0.00-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1650.0041.480.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.160.0036.19-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1625.0049.94-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.16100.0066.100.000.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1666.6756.650.000.02
RutgersB100.000.1550.0037.560.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1566.6758.230.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.15100.0065.270.000.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1350.0037.110.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.130.0042.80-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.13100.0047.840.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1266.6752.320.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.120.0034.55-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC1.560.1233.3324.07-0.52-0.06
SienaMAAC0.000.1233.3359.64-0.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0071.340.000.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1266.6763.960.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0061.850.000.03
MichiganB100.000.12100.0064.370.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.1266.6771.600.000.05
FordhamA100.000.100.0035.11-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA102.080.10100.0065.142.080.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1033.3344.56-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6752.550.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0033.25-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.100.0031.61-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1075.0068.160.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0966.6762.810.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0085.630.000.07
TempleAmer0.000.0950.0053.100.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6766.670.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0925.0035.65-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0950.0065.570.000.03
PurdueB100.000.09100.0060.550.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.890.000.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0925.0031.12-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.09100.0064.500.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0056.980.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.07100.0056.330.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.98-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0049.760.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.060.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0071.440.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0075.720.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0052.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0069.830.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3335.41-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0071.840.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0733.3345.85-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3341.92-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0033.700.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.180.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0750.0041.630.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6760.610.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0035.51-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0633.3322.74-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.860.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.990.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0072.420.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0054.290.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0085.100.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
North FloridaASun1.560.060.0047.13-1.56-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.710.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6767.200.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0625.0051.56-0.000.00
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3357.45-0.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.850.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.850.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3340.91-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0333.3354.50-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.510.000.02
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6773.760.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.030.0045.18-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.36-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum2.080.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0046.020.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA1.560.0333.3341.21-0.52-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd1.560.030.0025.73-1.56-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.540.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.89-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6734.100.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.48-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0375.0053.860.000.00