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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Brown

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:248.0
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:187
Current Record:11-18
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:4-10
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:241



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18248.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Brown.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH70-58W100%0.0
11-17Northwestern (125.0)B10H56-69L0%0.0
11-19Holy Cross (200.0)PatA80-65L0%0.0
11-22Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA78-66L0%0.0
11-24Illinois (73.0)B10A89-68L0%0.0
11-27Austin Peay (318.0)OVCN58-79L0%0.0
11-28Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACN71-81W100%0.0
12-3American (135.0)PatH49-66L0%0.0
12-6Bryant (189.0)NECH69-62W100%0.0
12-8Providence (22.0)BEA67-77W100%0.0
12-22Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA55-67W100%0.0
12-28Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH79-76W100%0.0
12-31Rhode Island (66.0)A10A80-60L0%0.0
1-5UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH58-49W100%0.0
1-8New Hampshire (193.0)AEA68-61L0%0.0
1-17Yale (64.0)IvyH62-80L0%0.0
1-24Yale (64.0)IvyA69-65L0%0.0
1-30Cornell (227.0)IvyA57-49L0%0.0
1-31Columbia (196.0)IvyA86-65L0%0.0
2-6Harvard (52.0)IvyH74-76L0%0.0
2-7Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH67-64W100%0.0
2-13Princeton (191.0)IvyA75-64L0%0.0
2-14Penn (254.0)IvyA55-71W100%0.0
2-20Columbia (196.0)IvyH59-76L0%0.0
2-21Cornell (227.0)IvyH57-56W100%0.0
2-27Penn (254.0)IvyH75-69W100%0.0
2-28Princeton (191.0)IvyH62-80L0%0.0
3-6Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA75-69L0%0.0
3-7Harvard (52.0)IvyA72-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Brown's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Brown's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Brown.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BrownIvy26.2726.2737.0137.01-6.83-6.83
YaleIvy4.334.3364.2964.291.241.24
HarvardIvy4.294.2972.0072.001.891.89
DartmouthIvy4.274.2750.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy4.244.2440.7440.74-0.79-0.79
PrincetonIvy4.214.2148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
ColumbiaIvy4.204.2040.0040.00-0.84-0.84
PennIvy4.184.1834.6234.62-1.29-1.29
BryantNEC2.082.0853.3353.330.140.14
Sacred HeartNEC2.012.0146.6746.67-0.13-0.13
UMass LowellAE1.961.9640.7440.74-0.36-0.36
New HampshireAE1.901.9057.1457.140.270.27
AmericanPat1.871.8750.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat1.871.8742.8642.86-0.27-0.27
IllinoisB101.861.8658.0658.060.300.30
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.841.8448.4848.48-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC1.841.8416.6716.67-1.22-1.22
ProvidenceBE1.811.8168.7568.750.680.68
Indiana St.MVC1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Rhode IslandA101.781.7868.9768.970.680.68
Austin PeayOVC1.781.7818.5218.52-1.12-1.12
NorthwesternB101.781.7845.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
HartfordAE0.380.3844.8344.83-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.360.3665.6265.620.110.11
LafayettePat0.340.3461.2961.290.080.08
VermontAE0.330.3356.6756.670.040.04
ColgatePat0.320.3246.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.320.3225.0025.00-0.16-0.16
WagnerNEC0.290.2931.0331.03-0.11-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.270.2716.6716.67-0.18-0.18
Loyola MDPat0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.260.2675.0075.000.130.13
Boston UniversityPat0.260.2641.3841.38-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.240.2456.0056.000.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
BucknellPat0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
LehighPat0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
NavyPat0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.180.1810.0010.00-0.15-0.15
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1858.8258.820.030.03
Penn St.B100.170.1752.9452.940.010.01
La SalleA100.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
George MasonA100.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
MaristMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01