live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Maryland

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:78.0
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:10
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1578.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Connecticut (22.0)AmerN78-77L0%0.0
11-17Oregon St. (100.0)P12H83-90L0%0.0
11-22Marist (250.0)MAACN68-43W100%0.0
11-24Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCN80-66W100%0.0
11-25Providence (40.0)BEN52-56W100%0.0
11-29Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH89-62W100%0.0
12-4Ohio St. (24.0)B10A76-60L0%0.0
12-8George Washington (29.0)A10N77-75L0%0.0
12-12Boston College (207.0)ACCA80-88W100%0.0
12-14Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH66-62W100%0.0
12-21Boston University (84.0)PatH77-83L0%0.0
12-29Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH85-74W100%0.0
12-31North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH70-56W100%0.0
1-4Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH77-61W100%0.0
1-6Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA79-59L0%0.0
1-12Florida St. (54.0)ACCA85-61L0%0.0
1-15Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH74-66W100%0.0
1-20North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA65-56L0%0.0
1-25Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH79-83L0%0.0
1-29Miami FL (110.0)ACCH74-71W100%0.0
2-1Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA60-80W100%0.0
2-4North Carolina (25.0)ACCA75-63L0%0.0
2-8Florida St. (54.0)ACCH83-71W100%0.0
2-10Virginia (8.0)ACCA61-53L0%0.0
2-15Duke (9.0)ACCA69-67L0%0.0
2-18Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH71-60W100%0.0
2-24Syracuse (16.0)ACCH55-57L0%0.0
3-2Clemson (79.0)ACCA77-73L0%0.0
3-4Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH64-47W100%0.0
3-9Virginia (8.0)ACCH75-69W100%0.0
3-13Florida St. (54.0)ACCN65-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandACC26.0726.0748.0648.06-1.01-1.01
Florida St.ACC5.385.3858.6258.620.930.93
VirginiaACC3.973.9784.3884.382.732.73
PittsburghACC3.823.8271.8871.881.671.67
Virginia TechACC3.773.7731.0331.03-1.43-1.43
Miami FLACC2.342.3453.1253.120.150.15
Boston CollegeACC2.282.2823.3323.33-1.22-1.22
DukeACC2.282.2875.7675.761.181.18
North Carolina St.ACC2.282.2860.6160.610.480.48
ClemsonACC2.282.2861.2961.290.510.51
Notre DameACC2.232.2348.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Wake ForestACC2.232.2353.1253.120.140.14
Georgia TechACC2.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC2.202.2083.8783.871.491.49
North CarolinaACC2.202.2070.9770.970.920.92
Morgan St.MEAC1.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.691.6986.6786.671.241.24
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
ProvidenceBE1.661.6669.7069.700.660.66
Ohio St.B101.661.6672.7372.730.760.76
ConnecticutAmer1.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
MaristMAAC1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Boston UniversityPat1.661.6669.7069.700.650.65
George WashingtonA101.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
Northern IowaMVC1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
TulsaCUSA1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
Oregon St.P121.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.300.3076.4776.470.160.16
MassachusettsA100.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
La SalleA100.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Seton HallBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonSC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
VMIBSth0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.100.1086.2186.210.070.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
AmericanPat0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
LehighPat0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
LafayettePat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00