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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:85.4
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:80
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-517.70.03%
24-621.20.23%
23-728.80.70%
22-835.22.59%
21-944.05.51%
20-1055.011.31%
19-1166.515.62%
18-1280.218.72%
17-1394.818.34%
16-14109.213.51%
15-15126.08.27%
14-16142.03.74%
13-17159.71.05%
12-18173.10.33%
11-19191.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11American (290.4)PatH62-56W100%0.0
11-15Georgetown (97.1)BEA75-76W100%0.0
11-20Towson (157.6)CAAH71-66W100%0.0
11-22Stony Brook (275.0)AEH77-63W100%0.0
11-25Richmond (176.7)A10N82-88W100%0.0
11-26Kansas St. (77.0)B12N69-68W100%0.0
11-29Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCH59-73L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12H71-70W100%0.0
12-7Howard (263.6)MEACH0-093%17.3
12-10Saint Peter's (189.2)MAACH0-084%11.9
12-12Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH0-087%13.5
12-20Charlotte (177.6)CUSAN0-077%8.7
12-27Illinois (93.1)B10H0-059%2.7
1-1Nebraska (86.3)B10H0-060%3.0
1-7Michigan (38.7)B10A0-019%-10.4
1-10Indiana (20.4)B10H0-027%-7.4
1-14Illinois (93.1)B10A0-038%-3.6
1-19Iowa (195.6)B10A0-051%0.4
1-24Rutgers (168.4)B10H0-076%8.7
1-28Minnesota (36.2)B10A0-025%-8.0
1-31Ohio St. (39.3)B10A0-022%-9.3
2-4Purdue (28.0)B10H0-025%-8.0
2-7Penn St. (121.4)B10A0-046%-1.1
2-11Ohio St. (39.3)B10H0-040%-3.0
2-15Northwestern (51.2)B10A0-023%-8.9
2-19Wisconsin (22.2)B10A0-011%-14.9
2-22Minnesota (36.2)B10H0-044%-1.7
2-25Iowa (195.6)B10H0-071%6.7
2-28Rutgers (168.4)B10A0-058%2.4
3-5Michigan St. (48.5)B10H0-043%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1028.3026.1080.5655.1617.302.70
IowaB100.003.9437.5037.67-0.00-0.97
RutgersB100.003.9385.7146.260.00-0.29
Ohio St.B100.003.9187.5068.580.001.45
MinnesotaB100.003.9087.5068.230.001.42
IllinoisB100.003.9062.5050.650.000.05
Penn St.B100.002.3766.6746.180.00-0.18
WisconsinB100.352.3777.7875.600.191.21
MichiganB100.002.3275.0065.990.000.74
NorthwesternB100.002.3275.0065.800.000.73
Michigan St.B100.002.3255.5658.650.000.40
NebraskaB100.002.3257.1445.070.00-0.23
PurdueB100.002.2975.0075.360.001.16
IndianaB100.002.2687.5074.540.001.11
HowardMEAC0.791.7816.6745.66-0.53-0.15
GeorgetownBE6.701.7562.5049.491.67-0.02
Stony BrookAE6.701.7533.3339.51-2.23-0.37
Oklahoma St.B126.601.7583.3356.194.400.22
Kansas St.B126.251.72100.0061.296.250.39
AmericanPat6.251.7016.6732.47-4.17-0.59
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.7050.0047.600.00-0.08
TowsonCAA6.701.7050.0055.030.000.17
PittsburghACC6.251.6971.4347.482.68-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.001.6771.4352.500.000.08
RichmondA106.251.6757.1449.880.89-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.001.6757.1451.610.000.05
KansasB120.000.1687.5075.860.000.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1616.6739.78-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1685.7183.660.000.11
MarquetteBE0.390.1675.0066.410.200.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1671.4368.070.000.06
TexasB120.000.1657.1438.680.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.1671.4354.560.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.16100.0077.380.000.09
St. John'sBE0.000.1637.5037.03-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.1687.5078.510.000.09
Old DominionCUSA0.840.1471.4368.050.360.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1471.4354.860.000.01
ElonCAA0.350.1471.4359.470.150.03
VCUA100.000.1475.0073.060.000.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.1414.2938.26-0.32-0.03
FordhamA100.000.1450.0041.310.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC1.670.1457.1429.790.24-0.06
IUPUISum0.000.1437.5051.64-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.14100.0061.680.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.1487.5062.040.000.03
BaylorB120.000.14100.0076.590.000.07
DePaulBE0.000.1466.6735.430.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1487.5065.250.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1471.4348.350.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.450.1487.5081.960.330.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.1233.3330.44-0.00-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.450.1142.8645.94-0.06-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1112.5030.68-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.110.0034.47-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.1180.0054.540.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.1122.2226.33-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC1.230.1114.2942.67-0.88-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.390.1175.0054.490.200.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.390.1133.3352.11-0.130.00
Morehead St.OVC0.390.1116.6738.58-0.26-0.03
NavyPat0.000.1125.0037.38-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1157.1471.520.000.05
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5641.690.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.450.1150.0044.400.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1142.8638.63-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1150.0040.600.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1125.0035.09-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.450.1162.5046.900.11-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.630.000.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1112.5037.99-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.1150.0049.780.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.11100.0086.690.000.08
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0084.840.000.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1142.8638.17-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.450.1133.3339.61-0.15-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0074.440.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.390.1142.8655.09-0.060.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0056.590.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1171.4366.700.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.09-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0071.470.000.04
LehighPat0.000.0942.8666.67-0.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0957.1458.840.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.350.0944.4441.30-0.04-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0971.4363.170.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0942.8654.90-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.390.0966.6766.340.130.03
LafayettePat0.000.0933.3333.36-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0842.8661.11-0.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5029.71-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0022.58-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0825.0027.53-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0822.2238.49-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0862.5043.220.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0816.6730.34-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0857.1464.030.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0018.64-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.990.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.840.080.0016.68-0.84-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0051.040.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC1.230.0822.2241.71-0.68-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0885.7166.190.000.03
DuquesneA100.390.0844.4442.03-0.04-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.450.0812.5030.39-0.33-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.350.0875.0066.370.170.03
DukeACC0.000.0888.8978.400.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0825.0030.23-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0025.23-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0811.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0642.8642.62-0.06-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0614.2924.15-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.450.0633.3339.94-0.15-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.350.060.0017.13-0.35-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.95-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0671.4359.880.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.65-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.92-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0566.6755.540.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.450.0540.0041.93-0.09-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0022.31-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.390.0528.5723.78-0.17-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0575.0086.710.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0542.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.010.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.390.0542.8651.95-0.060.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0514.2943.58-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0571.4355.820.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0571.4363.930.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0055.500.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0533.3354.32-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.84-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0514.2931.28-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.390.0566.6766.860.130.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.130.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0528.5728.24-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0540.0041.12-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0557.1467.260.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.390.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0522.2221.23-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.240.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.12-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.890.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.450.0371.4368.980.190.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.65-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.590.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.450.0366.6766.180.150.01
WagnerNEC0.450.0333.3354.47-0.150.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.450.0342.8639.20-0.06-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
VMISC0.390.030.0016.78-0.39-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.390.0350.0056.740.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.01
OregonP120.350.0375.0072.250.170.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.06-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
YaleIvy0.390.0342.8663.41-0.060.01