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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:49.5
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:134
Current Record:10-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-25.00.01%
28-38.00.01%
27-411.80.08%
26-513.80.45%
25-617.52.11%
24-721.65.64%
23-827.311.22%
22-935.017.63%
21-1044.720.80%
20-1156.618.93%
19-1270.413.05%
18-1385.86.55%
17-14101.22.55%
16-15118.90.73%
15-16136.80.20%
14-17158.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wagner (274.6)NECH82-48W100%0.0
11-17Central Connecticut (310.8)NECH93-57W100%0.0
11-20Fordham (262.5)A10H66-50W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (98.7)P12N78-73W100%0.0
11-25Iowa St. (37.1)B12N63-72W100%0.0
11-28Monmouth (176.5)MAACH61-56W100%0.0
11-30VMI (271.3)SCH95-77W100%0.0
12-3Virginia (7.3)ACCH65-76L0%0.0
12-6Winthrop (265.9)BSthH82-62W100%0.0
12-10North Carolina Central (151.2)MEACH67-56W100%0.0
12-13USC Upstate (174.6)ASunH67-57W100%0.0
12-21Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12A0-028%-6.8
12-27Oakland (237.7)HorzH0-094%18.5
12-30Michigan St. (26.6)B10A0-019%-10.3
1-3Minnesota (45.9)B10H0-057%2.1
1-7Illinois (53.3)B10A0-031%-6.0
1-10Purdue (59.1)B10A0-029%-6.6
1-14Rutgers (159.4)B10H0-092%16.5
1-17Michigan St. (26.6)B10H0-045%-1.6
1-22Indiana (78.9)B10A0-041%-2.7
1-25Northwestern (162.0)B10H0-087%13.3
1-29Ohio St. (11.1)B10A0-010%-15.0
2-4Penn St. (103.3)B10H0-084%11.8
2-8Iowa (50.0)B10A0-029%-6.4
2-11Indiana (78.9)B10H0-070%6.0
2-14Penn St. (103.3)B10A0-060%3.0
2-19Nebraska (100.9)B10H0-080%9.8
2-24Wisconsin (5.3)B10H0-022%-9.1
2-28Michigan (137.8)B10H0-082%10.8
3-3Rutgers (159.4)B10A0-075%7.8
3-8Nebraska (100.9)B10A0-054%1.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1027.8826.1182.9364.0618.367.34
RutgersB100.233.8660.0036.190.05-1.07
Penn St.B100.323.8190.9155.350.270.41
Michigan St.B100.003.8172.7373.530.001.79
IndianaB100.003.8180.0058.210.000.63
NebraskaB100.003.7566.6745.140.00-0.36
IllinoisB100.002.2572.7364.980.000.67
IowaB100.252.2572.7362.150.110.55
WisconsinB100.002.2590.9188.890.001.75
MinnesotaB100.002.2580.0067.400.000.78
Ohio St.B100.002.2590.0084.270.001.54
PurdueB100.002.2572.7363.520.000.61
MichiganB100.002.2455.5643.330.00-0.30
NorthwesternB100.002.2260.0041.290.00-0.39
MonmouthMAAC5.121.7550.0058.480.000.30
Iowa St.B124.551.72100.0065.594.550.54
Central ConnecticutNEC4.801.7025.0031.51-2.40-0.63
OaklandHorz0.251.6930.0032.24-0.10-0.60
FordhamA104.801.6933.3329.10-1.60-0.71
WagnerNEC4.551.6916.6734.82-3.03-0.51
Oklahoma St.B120.001.6788.8963.600.000.45
VirginiaACC4.551.66100.0085.274.551.17
Arizona St.P124.551.6166.6755.421.520.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.551.6150.0072.450.000.72
USC UpstateASun4.551.6166.6767.291.520.56
VMISC4.551.6137.5040.43-1.14-0.31
WinthropBSth4.551.6128.5746.35-1.95-0.12
George WashingtonA100.230.1966.6766.380.080.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1950.0058.380.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1922.2240.60-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.570.1718.1827.79-0.36-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1733.3343.01-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.510.1790.0067.450.400.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1628.5741.46-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1650.0062.120.000.04
KansasB120.000.1688.8969.210.000.06
RiderMAAC0.250.1650.0053.130.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.16100.0085.970.000.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.450.150.0024.34-0.45-0.07
The CitadelSC0.250.1416.6730.30-0.17-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.730.1418.1831.71-0.47-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.1450.0057.210.000.02
ClemsonACC0.280.1460.0044.120.06-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.1455.5638.620.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.1490.0073.800.000.06
Kansas St.B120.000.1460.0037.150.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.1477.7867.320.000.05
TexasB120.000.1490.0081.650.000.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1310.0018.50-0.00-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1322.2237.84-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.230.1360.0049.590.05-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.1271.4364.140.120.03
CincinnatiAmer0.250.1277.7868.980.140.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.1262.5073.430.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1120.0041.08-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1145.4550.81-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1122.2237.12-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.230.1160.0057.640.050.02
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5746.99-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1133.3344.60-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1137.5038.31-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0039.58-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.1144.4448.82-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1133.3334.61-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.11100.0066.920.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.1190.0055.490.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.250.1170.0072.100.100.05
ArizonaP120.000.11100.0082.300.000.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1171.4363.270.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6752.850.000.01
OregonP120.000.1166.6757.860.000.02
SMUAmer0.250.1170.0071.300.100.05
DukeACC0.000.10100.0087.560.000.08
Notre DameACC0.000.1090.9172.430.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1011.1144.75-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1036.3647.58-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.230.090.0012.00-0.23-0.07
CampbellBSth0.000.0925.0044.56-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0937.5050.60-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0962.5056.220.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0026.51-0.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.480.0955.5660.240.050.02
CreightonBE0.250.0975.0051.760.130.00
FurmanSC0.000.0922.2231.52-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0940.0049.77-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0936.3633.52-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.250.0933.3331.23-0.08-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.0920.0029.91-0.14-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0038.230.00-0.02
La SalleA100.230.0850.0049.930.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.67-0.00-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.230.0877.7851.830.130.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.0833.3349.72-0.08-0.00
MaristMAAC0.510.0810.0018.65-0.40-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0818.1836.00-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.250.0820.0021.61-0.15-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0875.0077.200.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0818.1821.03-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.0828.5731.22-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.320.0833.3348.90-0.11-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6758.330.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0038.520.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0840.0036.30-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.92-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0877.7855.570.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0881.8264.670.000.02
LamarSlnd0.250.0814.2933.59-0.18-0.03
UMBCAE0.250.0810.0020.97-0.20-0.05
BrownIvy0.000.0840.0033.52-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.0880.0072.370.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.9168.690.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.250.0844.4440.07-0.03-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0866.6759.590.000.01
USCP120.000.0860.0036.070.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.310.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.06-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.14-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5659.230.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.11-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.590.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.22-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0622.2238.12-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.250.0644.4444.53-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.15-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.790.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0620.0045.49-0.17-0.01
HowardMEAC0.250.0630.0043.48-0.10-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.580.0638.4644.31-0.13-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.19-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.970.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.760.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.680.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.280.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.60-0.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.440.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0662.5067.130.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.0654.5559.120.020.01
UMKCWAC0.250.0622.2242.00-0.14-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.0650.0053.800.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0027.11-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5076.810.000.03
St. John'sBE0.320.0688.8964.830.250.02
VCUA100.230.0670.0071.450.090.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0070.970.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.81-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.320.0577.7878.860.180.03
PennIvy0.320.0537.5033.00-0.08-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.320.0555.5654.330.040.00
Georgia St.SB0.250.0562.5071.350.060.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0566.6766.120.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.230.050.0011.34-0.23-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6737.98-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.050.0018.32-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0536.3641.21-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0081.870.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5055.010.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.250.050.0034.05-0.25-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.480.0566.6754.650.160.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7172.890.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.230.0570.0060.840.090.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0581.8266.320.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0056.170.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0518.1838.45-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0555.5661.600.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0560.0063.510.000.01
ColgatePat0.230.0520.0043.07-0.14-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0566.6757.620.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0555.5648.170.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0550.0046.960.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0036.23-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0560.0075.470.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3644.80-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.250.0566.6772.800.080.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0575.0059.930.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0525.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.56-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0520.0046.54-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0512.5029.32-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0590.0078.440.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.230.0575.0057.990.110.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0544.4449.63-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0040.680.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0057.490.000.01
TowsonCAA0.510.0566.6751.280.170.00
UtahP120.000.0577.7879.680.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1464.570.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.320.000.02
AuburnSEC0.280.0344.4435.91-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.88-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0357.1470.410.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.280.0355.5637.870.03-0.01
ArmyPat0.250.0377.7868.880.140.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.0336.3638.89-0.06-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.66-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.0333.3339.29-0.08-0.01
FIUCUSA0.230.0344.4450.85-0.030.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0316.6744.58-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.610.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0336.3647.56-0.07-0.00
UCFAmer0.230.0355.5634.700.03-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.320.0362.5064.770.080.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0026.38-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.320.0375.0070.210.160.01
MaineAE0.320.0311.1121.27-0.25-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.270.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.900.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.210.000.01
VermontAE0.320.0344.4457.69-0.040.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.740.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.96-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.69-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0058.890.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.900.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.250.0377.7871.770.140.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0320.0020.26-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.500.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0032.93-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3343.77-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.030.0015.18-0.23-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.56-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0064.750.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.98-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.55-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0069.170.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7870.500.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6768.290.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.370.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0057.700.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0337.5038.43-0.06-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.90-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.500.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.00-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.250.0350.0050.810.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.24-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3333.03-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.380.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.68-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.230.0325.0023.09-0.11-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.260.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.87-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.230.0377.7865.880.130.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0036.94-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.230.000.00
UNLVMWC0.230.0375.0049.970.11-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.400.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.84-0.00-0.01