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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:43.3
Current RPI:48
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:49
Current Record:14-6
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-611.00.16%
23-715.21.82%
22-821.16.49%
21-929.118.27%
20-1038.526.76%
19-1148.424.81%
18-1259.014.57%
17-1372.05.65%
16-1487.61.24%
15-15110.10.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Stony Brook (188.8)AEN61-76W100%0.0
11-12Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACH96-43W100%0.0
11-15Butler (37.3)BEH79-65W100%0.0
11-18Bucknell (84.9)PatH80-78W100%0.0
11-20Jackson St. (292.8)SWACH76-45W100%0.0
11-24St. Bonaventure (50.3)A10N61-63L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico (157.9)MWCN80-65W100%0.0
11-27Syracuse (43.7)ACCA72-70L0%0.0
12-1Purdue (6.5)B10H75-80L0%0.0
12-3Illinois (159.6)B10A91-92W100%0.0
12-7Ohio (171.2)MACH87-62W100%0.0
12-9Gardner Webb (214.6)BSthH82-60W100%0.0
12-21Fairleigh Dickinson (278.6)NECH75-50W100%0.0
12-29UMBC (159.0)AEH66-45W100%0.0
1-2Penn St. (113.7)B10H75-69W100%0.0
1-4Michigan St. (21.2)B10A91-61L0%0.0
1-7Iowa (157.0)B10H91-73W100%0.0
1-11Ohio St. (21.0)B10A91-69L0%0.0
1-15Michigan (38.7)B10A68-67L0%0.0
1-18Minnesota (98.6)B10H77-66W100%0.0
1-22Indiana (115.9)B10A0-059%2.4
1-28Michigan St. (21.2)B10H0-034%-4.6
1-31Purdue (6.5)B10A0-012%-13.0
2-4Wisconsin (130.2)B10H0-074%7.3
2-7Penn St. (113.7)B10A0-050%0.1
2-10Northwestern (126.0)B10H0-073%7.0
2-13Nebraska (100.4)B10A0-060%2.9
2-17Rutgers (185.2)B10H0-087%12.4
2-19Northwestern (126.0)B10A0-052%0.6
2-24Michigan (38.7)B10H0-058%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1026.3026.1067.5763.289.246.93
Penn St.B102.693.9465.0057.910.810.62
PurdueB102.743.9390.0088.002.192.99
MichiganB102.813.9373.6870.211.331.59
NorthwesternB100.363.9355.0051.310.040.10
Michigan St.B102.693.9184.2183.191.842.59
RutgersB100.502.3857.8948.310.08-0.08
Ohio St.B102.802.3580.0075.731.681.21
WisconsinB100.242.3550.0046.950.00-0.14
IowaB102.812.3250.0045.500.00-0.21
MinnesotaB102.742.3266.6759.560.910.44
NebraskaB100.372.2966.6760.450.120.48
IllinoisB102.682.2950.0045.800.00-0.19
IndianaB100.302.2957.8951.000.050.05
Stony BrookAE2.621.8341.1848.35-0.46-0.06
St. BonaventureA102.701.7564.7167.620.790.62
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.561.7525.0033.88-1.28-0.56
ButlerBE2.621.7570.0065.171.050.53
UMBCAE2.501.7262.5060.520.620.36
Jackson St.SWAC2.641.7241.1844.98-0.47-0.17
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.641.7216.6721.67-1.76-0.98
BucknellPat2.571.7065.0070.270.770.69
SyracuseACC2.571.6966.6759.980.860.34
Gardner WebbBSth2.501.6743.7545.02-0.31-0.17
New MexicoMWC2.501.6747.3750.24-0.130.01
OhioMAC2.501.6750.0050.170.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.190.190.003.12-0.19-0.18
DePaulBE0.190.1942.1134.32-0.03-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.240.1980.0075.050.150.10
VermontAE0.270.1773.6877.120.130.09
BinghamtonAE0.130.1744.4442.74-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.179.5217.94-0.17-0.11
Alabama A&MSWAC0.260.1710.5316.75-0.21-0.11
CreightonBE0.130.1675.0070.690.060.07
HartfordAE0.140.1452.6346.880.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.1429.4130.67-0.03-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.210.1462.5058.700.050.02
Seton HallBE0.130.1475.0067.890.070.05
MarquetteBE0.120.1368.4260.530.040.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.1230.0033.49-0.03-0.04
AlbanyAE0.070.1270.0068.050.030.04
MaineAE0.140.1210.5314.86-0.11-0.08
New HampshireAE0.070.1229.4138.15-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.210.1121.0539.47-0.12-0.02
CampbellBSth0.130.1143.7545.34-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.270.1161.1158.750.060.02
ToledoMAC0.210.1166.6767.690.070.04
BuffaloMAC0.140.1172.2274.900.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.190.1127.7840.97-0.09-0.02
ArizonaP120.200.1180.0078.980.120.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1121.0544.26-0.11-0.01
ColgatePat0.200.1150.0051.040.000.00
VCUA100.120.1160.0059.690.020.02
La SalleA100.060.1140.0042.72-0.01-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.200.1152.6347.390.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.190.1168.4254.090.070.01
ProvidenceBE0.190.1170.0060.460.070.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1168.4270.810.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.060.1122.2228.67-0.03-0.05
North FloridaASun0.130.1131.5835.15-0.05-0.03
ValparaisoMVC0.060.1150.0051.360.000.00
DukeACC0.060.1189.4785.190.050.08
LouisvilleACC0.060.1177.7869.360.030.04
Notre DameACC0.130.1163.1661.050.030.02
PittsburghACC0.130.1140.0030.87-0.03-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.0940.0042.57-0.04-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0942.1144.97-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0952.9459.250.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.099.5217.080.00-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.0952.3848.520.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0957.1460.400.020.02
LibertyBSth0.140.0952.9457.320.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.140.0917.6517.23-0.09-0.06
IonaMAAC0.210.0963.1666.880.060.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0944.4448.91-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.130.0961.1160.790.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.090.009.15-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.80-0.05-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0910.5327.310.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0943.7554.09-0.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.130.0826.3230.43-0.06-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.0816.6724.29-0.09-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.0836.8444.12-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0847.0641.45-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.0857.8953.190.020.01
BrownIvy0.070.0850.0045.130.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0870.0058.100.030.01
ArmyPat0.130.0861.1160.530.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.130.0838.8944.14-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.130.0876.4769.020.070.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0846.6746.98-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.0883.3384.230.130.06
UNLVMWC0.130.0873.6865.280.060.03
AmericanPat0.130.0826.3228.14-0.06-0.04
ClemsonACC0.130.0884.2173.210.090.04
ColumbiaIvy0.130.0820.0032.26-0.08-0.03
DrakeMVC0.180.0855.0049.070.02-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0827.7834.50-0.06-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.190.0868.4257.780.070.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0852.6343.120.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0850.0051.650.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0847.3746.91-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.120.0863.1657.620.030.01
UCLAP120.060.0865.0062.040.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0820.0023.36-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.060.0845.0041.35-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.0844.4441.15-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.190.0863.1663.180.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0868.4255.060.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0840.0043.34-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0868.4257.770.020.01
OaklandHorz0.130.0861.9065.160.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.120.0830.0032.53-0.05-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.120.0837.5033.78-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0847.3742.180.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0894.4485.440.060.06
XavierBE0.060.0885.7180.080.040.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0633.3335.190.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0664.7164.540.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0028.720.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.070.0640.0047.86-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0629.4127.74-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0055.650.000.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0646.6758.78-0.000.01
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.60-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.140.0620.0041.76-0.08-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.130.0652.9460.270.010.01
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0612.5025.47-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0630.0036.480.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.440.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.760.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0010.650.00-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.76-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.130.0618.7518.40-0.08-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.880.030.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.0611.1117.96-0.10-0.04
DaytonA100.140.0647.3750.95-0.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.140.0668.4263.640.050.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.0625.0028.02-0.07-0.02
Iowa St.B120.130.0661.1147.260.03-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.0641.1839.13-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0627.7831.67-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0637.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0678.9576.970.040.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0645.0041.340.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0666.6763.420.020.01
LSUSEC0.060.0661.1153.160.010.00
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.900.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0683.3381.410.050.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0611.7612.81-0.05-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0641.1838.46-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.130.0673.6865.590.060.02
Texas TechB120.000.0678.9571.810.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0617.6523.89-0.04-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0645.0045.500.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0661.1156.830.010.01
ColoradoP120.120.0560.0053.730.020.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0573.6869.610.030.02
MassachusettsA100.130.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0557.1453.220.020.00
RichmondA100.060.0531.5834.35-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.130.0530.0031.69-0.05-0.02
YaleIvy0.070.0541.1847.51-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0521.0523.50-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.0568.4264.200.040.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0550.0053.160.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.055.8819.37-0.06-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.060.0527.7829.84-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.070.0584.2179.740.050.03
LafayettePat0.060.0522.2227.51-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.060.0538.8944.75-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0552.9459.360.000.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0570.5973.140.020.02
NavyPat0.000.0560.0055.160.000.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0565.0065.370.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0536.8432.79-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.920.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0535.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0568.4263.980.020.02
VillanovaBE0.060.0594.7490.310.050.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.060.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.550.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.240.020.01
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.630.030.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0363.1666.000.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.240.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.470.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0329.4139.62-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.760.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0352.6350.250.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.230.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0327.7831.120.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0360.0060.340.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0342.1132.480.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0352.6351.700.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0385.7182.070.040.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0358.8262.830.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.0026.140.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.52-0.03-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0333.3334.11-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0368.4258.990.020.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0333.3337.22-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0361.1156.090.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.36-0.02-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.940.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0337.5037.68-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0366.6768.500.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0380.9583.260.040.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0325.0027.940.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.63-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0316.6724.91-0.04-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0383.3381.350.040.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0521.990.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0345.0047.050.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.70-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.640.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0358.8263.210.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0372.2272.970.030.01
StanfordP120.060.0355.0050.370.010.00
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.920.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.730.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0361.1164.130.010.01
UtahP120.060.0361.1158.950.010.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0338.8935.35-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.980.020.01