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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:57.7
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:327
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-35.00.03%
26-47.70.18%
25-59.30.68%
24-614.32.07%
23-719.34.74%
22-826.08.86%
21-934.814.45%
20-1045.717.03%
19-1158.317.69%
18-1272.313.89%
17-1388.19.92%
16-14105.16.01%
15-15123.92.90%
14-16142.41.14%
13-17155.90.30%
12-18185.50.06%
11-19189.70.03%
10-20200.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wagner (232.8)NECH82-48W100%0.0
11-17Central Connecticut (300.7)NECH93-57W100%0.0
11-20Fordham (224.6)A10H66-50W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (89.9)P12N0-060%3.0
11-28Monmouth (147.4)MAACH0-086%12.8
11-30VMI (274.1)SCH0-096%21.5
12-3Virginia (14.7)ACCH0-041%-2.7
12-6Winthrop (166.8)BSthH0-089%14.9
12-10North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACH0-083%11.3
12-13USC Upstate (247.6)ASunH0-094%18.9
12-21Oklahoma St. (84.3)B12A0-047%-0.8
12-27Oakland (245.0)HorzH0-092%16.9
12-30Michigan St. (30.7)B10A0-026%-7.8
1-3Minnesota (62.9)B10H0-061%3.5
1-7Illinois (42.0)B10A0-033%-5.4
1-10Purdue (64.5)B10A0-040%-3.0
1-14Rutgers (170.5)B10H0-085%12.6
1-17Michigan St. (30.7)B10H0-048%-0.6
1-22Indiana (67.9)B10A0-041%-2.6
1-25Northwestern (169.8)B10H0-087%13.5
1-29Ohio St. (38.8)B10A0-029%-6.6
2-4Penn St. (122.0)B10H0-078%9.4
2-8Iowa (38.6)B10A0-028%-6.9
2-11Indiana (67.9)B10H0-065%4.5
2-14Penn St. (122.0)B10A0-057%2.2
2-19Nebraska (84.0)B10H0-068%5.8
2-24Wisconsin (6.2)B10H0-029%-6.6
2-28Michigan (46.1)B10H0-057%2.2
3-3Rutgers (170.5)B10A0-067%5.4
3-8Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1035.4226.14100.0060.1135.425.29
RutgersB100.003.9850.0038.540.00-0.91
IndianaB100.003.96100.0063.080.001.03
Penn St.B104.173.9575.0048.252.08-0.14
Michigan St.B100.003.9566.6772.220.001.76
NebraskaB100.003.8966.6753.020.000.24
IllinoisB100.002.35100.0067.090.000.80
MinnesotaB100.002.3466.6762.160.000.57
WisconsinB100.002.34100.0085.390.001.66
Ohio St.B100.002.34100.0071.360.001.00
MichiganB100.002.34100.0065.170.000.71
PurdueB100.002.34100.0060.580.000.49
IowaB100.002.3250.0065.370.000.71
NorthwesternB100.002.32100.0043.120.00-0.32
MonmouthMAAC2.081.8166.6759.690.690.35
Central ConnecticutNEC16.671.750.0036.54-16.67-0.47
FordhamA1016.671.750.0036.41-16.67-0.48
WagnerNEC16.671.750.0046.79-16.67-0.11
OaklandHorz0.001.720.0033.35-0.00-0.57
Arizona St.P120.001.67100.0056.890.000.23
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.670.0074.30-0.000.81
Oklahoma St.B120.001.67100.0052.600.000.09
USC UpstateASun0.001.67100.0052.790.000.09
VirginiaACC0.001.67100.0076.330.000.88
VMISC0.001.6733.3340.64-0.00-0.31
WinthropBSth0.001.6750.0062.340.000.41
George WashingtonA100.000.2066.6776.510.000.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2050.0037.890.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.200.0056.24-0.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1850.0041.720.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1833.3340.99-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1750.0038.370.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1733.3343.68-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1766.6751.290.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.17100.0078.630.000.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.160.0024.17-0.00-0.08
The CitadelSC0.000.150.0028.08-0.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.150.0037.13-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.150.0047.13-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1550.0051.120.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1466.6733.180.00-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1433.3357.45-0.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1350.0052.290.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0063.820.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.120.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.12100.0056.240.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1225.0051.56-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0067.570.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0049.250.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.120.0033.14-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0073.290.000.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0032.70-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1266.6758.650.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.12100.0061.830.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1233.3354.50-0.000.01
DukeACC0.000.11100.0086.130.000.08
Notre DameACC0.000.11100.0074.620.000.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0018.48-0.00-0.07
ArizonaP120.000.11100.0069.320.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.1150.0054.900.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.110.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1133.3336.55-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1125.0041.91-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.11100.0071.440.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6750.790.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0037.22-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.1150.0068.880.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.110.0028.32-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0018.27-0.00-0.06
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0055.850.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0966.6768.980.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0032.69-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0030.19-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.0975.0055.790.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0933.3322.74-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0033.68-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0046.61-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0933.3325.18-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0925.0031.88-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.89-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0040.40-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.090.0032.62-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0933.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0966.6754.240.000.01
La SalleA100.000.09100.0053.840.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0053.080.000.01
TexasB120.000.09100.0081.740.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3346.93-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0067.49-0.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.630.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0068.160.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0925.0035.71-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0052.610.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0049.460.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0925.0035.65-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.080.0034.55-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0875.0069.830.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.08100.0047.840.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0833.3359.64-0.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0833.3340.91-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.080.0036.19-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0825.0037.31-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0061.850.000.02
FairfieldMAAC2.080.0825.0031.12-1.04-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3335.41-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3345.63-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0035.51-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.810.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3345.85-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0034.07-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.860.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0042.80-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0675.0075.140.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.640.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0052.260.000.00
KansasB120.000.0650.0061.790.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0675.0060.410.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6746.620.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.120.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0037.110.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0033.700.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.900.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.97-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0625.0035.61-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6762.810.000.01
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.21-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0034.510.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.710.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.730.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.720.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.97-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0056.980.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.02
UtahP120.000.0666.6769.700.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0533.3341.16-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0566.6734.100.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.05100.0050.830.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0566.6756.650.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6768.230.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0062.070.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0049.760.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0566.6766.670.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.050.0034.03-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0033.75-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0533.3324.07-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0566.6763.960.000.02
TowsonCAA2.080.0575.0053.861.040.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.56-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0033.25-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3336.99-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0063.56-0.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.100.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.160.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.730.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy4.170.0350.0062.620.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0064.270.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0018.23-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.15-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0065.140.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.93-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.040.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.01-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3349.04-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0046.020.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.73-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
LehighPat0.000.030.0036.87-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3327.10-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0062.510.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0053.210.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0065.270.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0057.540.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.58-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.990.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01