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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Maryland

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:73.0
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:93
Current SOS:93
Current Record:22-12
Expected Record:22-12
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1273.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Kentucky (56.0)SECN72-69L0%0.0
11-12Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH67-45W100%0.0
11-16Long Island (179.0)NECH91-74W100%0.0
11-20Lafayette (153.0)PatH83-74W100%0.0
11-24Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH70-53W100%0.0
11-27Northwestern (168.0)B10A57-77W100%0.0
12-2George Mason (162.0)CAAN69-62W100%0.0
12-5Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACH100-68W100%0.0
12-8South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH61-46W100%0.0
12-12Monmouth (282.0)NECH71-38W100%0.0
12-21Stony Brook (81.0)AEH76-69W100%0.0
12-29Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH79-50W100%0.0
1-1IUPUI (326.0)SumH81-63W100%0.0
1-5Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCH94-71W100%0.0
1-9Florida St. (85.0)ACCH62-65L0%0.0
1-13Miami FL (4.0)ACCA54-47L0%0.0
1-16North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCH51-50W100%0.0
1-19North Carolina (17.0)ACCA62-52L0%0.0
1-22Boston College (113.0)ACCH64-59W100%0.0
1-26Duke (1.0)ACCA84-64L0%0.0
1-30Florida St. (85.0)ACCA73-71L0%0.0
2-2Wake Forest (170.0)ACCH86-60W100%0.0
2-7Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA55-60W100%0.0
2-10Virginia (76.0)ACCH69-80L0%0.0
2-16Duke (1.0)ACCH83-81W100%0.0
2-19Boston College (113.0)ACCA69-58L0%0.0
2-23Clemson (185.0)ACCH72-59W100%0.0
2-27Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA78-68L0%0.0
3-2Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA57-67W100%0.0
3-6North Carolina (17.0)ACCH68-79L0%0.0
3-10Virginia (76.0)ACCA61-58L0%0.0
3-14Wake Forest (170.0)ACCN75-62W100%0.0
3-15Duke (1.0)ACCN74-83W100%0.0
3-16North Carolina (17.0)ACCN79-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandACC26.3826.3861.7661.766.216.21
North CarolinaACC5.125.1266.6766.671.711.71
DukeACC5.125.1289.6689.664.064.06
Wake ForestACC5.075.0746.4346.43-0.36-0.36
Florida St.ACC3.723.7251.6151.610.120.12
Virginia TechACC3.683.6843.3343.33-0.49-0.49
Boston CollegeACC3.683.6848.3948.39-0.12-0.12
VirginiaACC3.673.6763.3363.330.980.98
North Carolina St.ACC2.392.3972.7372.731.081.08
Miami FLACC2.382.3881.2581.251.491.49
Georgia TechACC2.272.2750.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC2.252.2543.3343.33-0.30-0.30
Long IslandNEC1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
KentuckySEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
LafayettePat1.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
Delaware St.MEAC1.571.5743.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Morehead St.OVC1.541.5443.3343.33-0.21-0.21
MonmouthNEC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.521.527.417.41-1.29-1.29
South Carolina St.MEAC1.521.5214.8114.81-1.07-1.07
George MasonCAA1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
Georgia SouthernSC1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
NorthwesternB101.491.4941.9441.94-0.24-0.24
IUPUISum1.471.4713.7913.79-1.06-1.06
Stony BrookAE1.471.4779.3179.310.860.86
DelawareCAA0.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
NC GreensboroSC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
FurmanSC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
IowaB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
DavidsonSC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.CAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Penn St.B100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
ButlerA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.100.106.906.90-0.08-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BradleyMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.090.099.689.68-0.07-0.07
ElonSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
MichiganB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
College of CharlestonSC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
NavyPat0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Old DominionCAA0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
BryantNEC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
CharlotteA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UABCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
BucknellPat0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
IndianaB100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.070.0748.0048.00-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
High PointBSth0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ArmyPat0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0429.6329.63-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00