live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:13.0
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:45
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-613.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wagner (294.0)NECH82-48W100%0.0
11-17Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH93-57W100%0.0
11-20Fordham (238.0)A10H66-50W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (102.0)P12N78-73W100%0.0
11-25Iowa St. (9.0)B12N63-72W100%0.0
11-28Monmouth (176.0)MAACH61-56W100%0.0
11-30VMI (286.0)SCH95-77W100%0.0
12-3Virginia (7.0)ACCH65-76L0%0.0
12-6Winthrop (210.0)BSthH82-62W100%0.0
12-10North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH67-56W100%0.0
12-13USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH67-57W100%0.0
12-21Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A64-73W100%0.0
12-27Oakland (155.0)HorzH72-56W100%0.0
12-30Michigan St. (23.0)B10A66-68W100%0.0
1-3Minnesota (98.0)B10H70-58W100%0.0
1-7Illinois (73.0)B10A64-57L0%0.0
1-10Purdue (55.0)B10A60-69W100%0.0
1-14Rutgers (178.0)B10H73-65W100%0.0
1-17Michigan St. (23.0)B10H75-59W100%0.0
1-22Indiana (61.0)B10A89-70L0%0.0
1-25Northwestern (125.0)B10H68-67W100%0.0
1-29Ohio St. (41.0)B10A80-56L0%0.0
2-4Penn St. (108.0)B10H64-58W100%0.0
2-8Iowa (43.0)B10A71-55L0%0.0
2-11Indiana (61.0)B10H68-66W100%0.0
2-14Penn St. (108.0)B10A73-76W100%0.0
2-19Nebraska (158.0)B10H69-65W100%0.0
2-24Wisconsin (4.0)B10H59-53W100%0.0
2-28Michigan (81.0)B10H66-56W100%0.0
3-3Rutgers (178.0)B10A50-60W100%0.0
3-8Nebraska (158.0)B10A61-64W100%0.0
3-13Indiana (61.0)B10N75-69W100%0.0
3-14Michigan St. (23.0)B10N58-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1026.2026.2082.2282.2216.8816.88
Michigan St.B105.155.1570.9770.972.162.16
IndianaB105.125.1263.3363.331.371.37
Penn St.B103.693.6956.2556.250.460.46
RutgersB103.683.6833.3333.33-1.23-1.23
NebraskaB103.583.5844.8344.83-0.37-0.37
WisconsinB102.242.2493.9493.941.961.96
Ohio St.B102.232.2368.7568.750.840.84
PurdueB102.212.2165.6265.620.690.69
MinnesotaB102.192.1954.8454.840.210.21
NorthwesternB102.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MichiganB102.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB102.172.1758.0658.060.350.35
IowaB102.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
MonmouthMAAC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
Iowa St.B121.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
OaklandHorz1.601.6048.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC1.591.5916.6716.67-1.06-1.06
WagnerNEC1.591.5932.1432.14-0.57-0.57
FordhamA101.581.5831.0331.03-0.60-0.60
VirginiaACC1.561.5690.3290.321.261.26
Oklahoma St.B121.561.5658.6258.620.270.27
Arizona St.P121.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.521.5278.5778.570.870.87
USC UpstateASun1.521.5265.5265.520.470.47
VMISC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
WinthropBSth1.521.5257.1457.140.220.22
KansasB120.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
George WashingtonA100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
OklahomaB120.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
RiderMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.150.1529.6329.63-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
North FloridaASun0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
MarquetteBE0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.120.1268.5768.570.040.04
BaylorB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
DukeACC0.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
OregonP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
NavyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.040.0458.8258.820.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00