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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:25.7
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:234
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-13.00.01%
27-21.70.18%
26-33.00.76%
25-45.12.51%
24-57.66.24%
23-611.311.16%
22-716.216.64%
21-821.818.98%
20-929.117.55%
19-1037.013.31%
18-1146.97.37%
17-1258.33.27%
16-1373.91.41%
15-1489.90.49%
14-15103.90.09%
13-16122.00.01%
11-18176.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Stony Brook (185.8)AEN61-76W100%0.0
11-12Maryland Eastern Shore (320.1)MEACH96-43W100%0.0
11-15Butler (79.5)BEH79-65W100%0.0
11-18Bucknell (96.6)PatH80-78W100%0.0
11-20Jackson St. (279.5)SWACH0-099%28.3
11-24St. Bonaventure (90.6)A10N0-077%8.8
11-27Syracuse (45.7)ACCA0-049%-0.4
12-1Purdue (9.2)B10H0-037%-3.9
12-3Illinois (84.8)B10A0-060%3.0
12-7Ohio (174.6)MACH0-093%17.9
12-9Gardner Webb (221.4)BSthH0-097%23.3
12-21Fairleigh Dickinson (237.1)NECH0-098%24.3
12-29UMBC (173.3)AEH0-095%20.1
1-2Penn St. (87.4)B10H0-078%9.4
1-4Michigan St. (23.7)B10A0-029%-6.7
1-7Iowa (98.1)B10H0-076%8.5
1-11Ohio St. (85.4)B10A0-058%2.4
1-15Michigan (60.4)B10A0-050%-0.1
1-18Minnesota (39.3)B10H0-060%3.1
1-22Indiana (137.3)B10A0-070%6.2
1-28Michigan St. (23.7)B10H0-048%-0.7
1-31Purdue (9.2)B10A0-020%-9.9
2-4Wisconsin (36.5)B10H0-059%2.7
2-7Penn St. (87.4)B10A0-061%3.4
2-10Northwestern (80.7)B10H0-075%8.0
2-13Nebraska (165.0)B10A0-076%8.6
2-17Rutgers (181.4)B10H0-089%14.9
2-19Northwestern (80.7)B10A0-057%2.0
2-24Michigan (60.4)B10H0-069%5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1033.3326.16100.0069.5933.3310.25
Penn St.B100.004.10100.0062.560.001.03
MichiganB100.004.09100.0063.270.001.09
PurdueB100.004.09100.0086.400.002.98
NorthwesternB100.004.0975.0056.590.000.54
Michigan St.B100.004.0650.0079.010.002.36
RutgersB100.002.49100.0048.120.00-0.09
WisconsinB100.002.4666.6767.860.000.88
MinnesotaB100.002.43100.0072.760.001.11
Ohio St.B100.002.43100.0060.510.000.51
IowaB100.002.42100.0059.480.000.46
IndianaB100.002.4033.3341.600.00-0.40
IllinoisB100.002.40100.0059.900.000.47
NebraskaB100.002.3966.6740.660.00-0.45
Stony BrookAE12.501.910.0049.09-12.50-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.810.0046.600.00-0.12
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.790.0046.110.00-0.14
ButlerBE12.501.78100.0054.2312.500.15
UMBCAE0.001.780.0054.830.000.17
St. BonaventureA100.001.7850.0055.610.000.20
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC12.501.750.0029.88-12.50-0.71
SyracuseACC0.001.75100.0062.600.000.44
BucknellPat12.501.750.0063.51-12.500.47
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.720.0045.210.00-0.17
OhioMAC0.001.7233.3350.030.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.007.670.00-0.18
DePaulBE0.000.2133.3331.290.00-0.08
VermontAE0.000.1866.6774.120.000.09
BinghamtonAE0.000.1825.0038.080.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.180.0022.840.00-0.10
CreightonBE0.000.18100.0067.460.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0022.610.00-0.10
HartfordAE0.000.1533.3326.430.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.1550.0042.730.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.150.0048.610.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.15100.0067.950.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1550.0050.870.000.00
North CarolinaACC1.560.14100.0078.161.560.08
AlbanyAE0.000.13100.0072.510.000.06
MaineAE0.000.130.0013.450.00-0.09
New HampshireAE0.000.130.0048.110.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.120.0037.310.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.12100.0061.010.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.12100.0064.120.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0044.630.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE3.120.12100.0058.073.120.02
Ball St.MAC2.080.1233.3345.54-0.69-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0050.360.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.120.0051.410.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0036.690.00-0.03
ValparaisoMVC0.000.12100.0059.760.000.02
La SalleA100.000.1275.0051.210.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1275.0064.570.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.1250.0050.310.000.00
DukeACC0.000.12100.0083.580.000.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0066.990.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0073.730.000.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.120.0038.210.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1133.3334.560.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0925.0045.730.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.090.0036.070.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3359.680.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0047.670.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0933.3360.630.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.090.0030.230.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0925.0040.490.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0049.250.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0033.850.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0933.3348.640.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0025.140.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.770.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.09100.0039.920.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0046.150.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6753.390.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0026.180.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0925.0059.770.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.090.0017.060.00-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0966.6754.900.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0029.620.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.0950.0035.740.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0966.6759.540.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.09100.0039.270.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0933.3327.100.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0054.590.000.01
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0950.0053.620.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.09100.0054.960.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0950.0049.480.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0975.0048.930.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3333.580.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.09100.0078.990.000.05
AmericanPat0.000.090.0030.350.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.09100.0048.790.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0053.280.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.520.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0966.6765.630.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0933.3350.350.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0074.500.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0975.0045.290.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0054.680.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0023.260.00-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0074.140.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0825.0035.000.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0030.910.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0666.6749.940.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy1.560.060.0051.01-1.560.00
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0633.3335.310.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0633.3347.540.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0016.000.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0650.0073.230.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.060.0064.600.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0650.0051.070.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0046.410.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer2.080.06100.0056.362.080.01
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
ArkansasSEC1.560.06100.0071.181.560.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.03
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0650.0052.870.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3341.010.00-0.01
FurmanSC1.560.0350.0059.440.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun1.560.030.0031.38-1.56-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.03100.0067.160.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.03100.0038.710.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0069.320.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
MonmouthMAAC1.560.0366.6759.740.520.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02