live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:5.8
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:29
Current Record:21-3
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-31.86.51%
26-43.328.77%
25-55.639.25%
24-69.020.81%
23-713.84.12%
22-818.50.52%
21-924.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Mount St. Mary's (233.7)NECH80-56W100%0.0
11-17Georgetown (70.3)BEH75-71W100%0.0
11-20Rider (228.2)MAACH65-58W100%0.0
11-24Illinois St. (128.4)MVCN66-77W100%0.0
11-25Rhode Island (97.9)A10N86-63W100%0.0
11-28Cleveland St. (273.8)HorzH80-63W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina (11.0)ACCA89-81L0%0.0
12-4St. Francis PA (237.8)NECH96-55W100%0.0
12-8Connecticut (36.1)AmerN66-76W100%0.0
12-12Maryland Eastern Shore (276.1)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
12-19Princeton (53.0)IvyN82-61W100%0.0
12-27Marshall (127.2)CUSAH87-67W100%0.0
12-30Penn St. (132.8)B10H70-64W100%0.0
1-2Northwestern (120.4)B10A59-72W100%0.0
1-6Rutgers (281.5)B10H88-63W100%0.0
1-9Wisconsin (59.0)B10A60-63W100%0.0
1-12Michigan (47.1)B10A70-67L0%0.0
1-16Ohio St. (90.9)B10H100-65W100%0.0
1-19Northwestern (120.4)B10H62-56W100%0.0
1-23Michigan St. (18.9)B10A74-65L0%0.0
1-28Iowa (7.4)B10H74-68W100%0.0
1-31Ohio St. (90.9)B10A61-66W100%0.0
2-3Nebraska (149.4)B10A65-70W100%0.0
2-6Purdue (14.6)B10H72-61W100%0.0
2-13Wisconsin (59.0)B10H0-082%9.9
2-18Minnesota (247.2)B10A0-089%13.3
2-21Michigan (47.1)B10H0-073%6.7
2-27Purdue (14.6)B10A0-033%-4.8
3-3Illinois (157.5)B10H0-094%16.9
3-6Indiana (39.1)B10A0-040%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1026.2226.0990.6286.3521.3018.97
Ohio St.B104.593.9665.2259.371.400.74
PurdueB102.523.9383.3381.031.682.44
NorthwesternB104.593.9369.5766.371.801.29
MichiganB102.433.9369.5766.960.951.33
WisconsinB102.513.9365.2260.260.760.81
Michigan St.B102.562.3579.1780.971.491.45
NebraskaB102.522.3454.1752.470.210.12
Penn St.B102.512.3252.1748.310.11-0.08
IllinoisB100.472.3245.8345.38-0.04-0.21
MinnesotaB100.512.3225.0027.78-0.25-1.03
IowaB102.512.3286.3683.301.821.54
IndianaB100.432.2979.1774.520.251.12
RutgersB102.472.2922.7321.04-1.34-1.33
ConnecticutAmer2.251.8077.2775.001.230.90
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.211.7841.6747.00-0.37-0.11
GeorgetownBE2.221.7858.3354.600.370.16
RiderMAAC2.231.7541.6743.52-0.37-0.23
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.211.7530.4334.94-0.87-0.53
Rhode IslandA102.211.7560.8759.130.480.32
St. Francis PANEC2.171.7552.3851.320.100.05
Cleveland St.Horz2.171.7222.7323.55-1.18-0.91
North CarolinaACC2.171.7282.6177.681.410.95
PrincetonIvy2.121.6976.4777.551.120.93
Illinois St.MVC2.081.6756.5252.740.270.09
MarshallCUSA2.081.6752.1752.900.090.10
BryantNEC0.220.2025.0026.40-0.11-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.1934.7837.06-0.07-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.1750.0051.910.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.1713.0413.56-0.17-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1730.4332.35-0.05-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.250.1654.1754.110.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1656.5262.820.020.04
TempleAmer0.130.1663.6459.710.040.03
ProvidenceBE0.170.1672.0069.150.070.06
SyracuseACC0.170.1666.6762.560.060.04
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1466.6765.220.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.1483.3381.320.150.09
WagnerNEC0.170.1463.6465.020.050.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.149.0912.25-0.07-0.11
HowardMEAC0.130.1436.3638.93-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.1459.0959.650.020.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1470.8367.820.060.05
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1434.7840.89-0.04-0.02
CreightonBE0.170.1464.0062.040.050.03
MarquetteBE0.130.1464.0057.920.040.02
DePaulBE0.210.1333.3334.01-0.07-0.04
BrownIvy0.140.1231.5831.04-0.05-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1147.8348.87-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1128.0030.70-0.06-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.1137.5043.37-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.1133.3335.05-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.180.1129.1731.18-0.07-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.115.007.22-0.12-0.10
Green BayHorz0.090.1154.5556.010.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1152.1754.140.010.01
LehighPat0.130.1139.1342.82-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1150.0049.770.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.130.1133.3330.27-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.090.1172.7367.630.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.040.1186.9682.900.030.07
TexasB120.130.1166.6762.210.040.03
XavierBE0.090.1187.5081.860.060.07
Chicago St.WAC0.080.114.357.72-0.08-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.090.1180.0081.160.050.07
St. John'sBE0.130.1125.0023.45-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.090.1182.6179.390.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.170.1134.7835.64-0.05-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1129.1726.73-0.07-0.05
ButlerBE0.080.1170.8368.990.030.04
DukeACC0.040.1175.0071.800.020.05
MemphisAmer0.170.1158.3359.360.030.02
SienaMAAC0.090.1164.0064.110.020.03
YaleIvy0.060.0973.6874.680.030.04
Kent St.MAC0.140.0965.2260.580.040.02
BucknellPat0.140.0852.1754.960.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0882.6177.520.060.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.0840.9143.25-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0819.0525.90-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.130.0868.0067.990.050.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0881.8283.030.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0873.9174.700.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.0845.8343.68-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0860.8756.360.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.130.0820.8324.09-0.08-0.04
DrakeMVC0.130.0820.8323.19-0.08-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0837.5037.41-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0873.9176.740.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0829.1733.11-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0858.3358.370.010.01
ElonCAA0.090.0852.1750.420.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0856.0055.420.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0886.9682.150.030.05
George WashingtonA100.130.0875.0071.920.070.04
KentuckySEC0.130.0875.0072.630.060.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0870.8368.100.040.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0827.7829.16-0.04-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0850.0052.380.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0841.6739.91-0.01-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0844.0045.35-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0872.0071.540.040.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0866.6766.330.030.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0870.8367.980.040.03
IonaMAAC0.130.0860.8760.750.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.0870.8369.490.050.03
La SalleA100.130.0819.0520.33-0.08-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0871.4368.750.040.03
Loyola MDPat0.120.0833.3335.16-0.04-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.0820.0022.26-0.07-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.089.0917.14-0.07-0.05
TulaneAmer0.130.0836.0034.92-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.040.0873.9174.060.020.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5086.870.060.06
VirginiaACC0.080.0883.3378.470.060.05
Virginia TechACC0.130.0852.0048.860.01-0.00
VMISC0.130.0815.0016.73-0.09-0.05
CornellIvy0.000.0642.1140.18-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.74-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0635.0038.52-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0638.8937.69-0.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.310.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.020.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0614.2920.65-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.090.0682.6181.130.060.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0658.3356.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.20-0.04-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0663.6461.480.020.01
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.33-0.04-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0643.4846.22-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.040.0612.0011.96-0.03-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0675.0076.190.020.03
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0650.0049.600.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0673.0872.640.020.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.73-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0569.5764.900.030.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0570.8368.000.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0542.8646.35-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0541.6741.24-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.090.0545.8339.35-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0543.4837.81-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0524.0025.67-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.040.0561.9058.060.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0539.1341.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0540.0043.42-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0522.7327.18-0.05-0.02
FordhamA100.040.0552.3850.750.000.00
FurmanSC0.090.0554.1754.080.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.090.0578.2676.880.050.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0515.0018.11-0.06-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0552.9452.060.000.00
IUPUISum0.040.0540.0039.76-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0579.1776.070.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0542.8642.01-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0521.7424.20-0.02-0.03
MassachusettsA100.040.0540.9139.26-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0569.5769.040.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0571.4369.430.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.040.0558.3360.690.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0527.7834.45-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0524.0024.57-0.02-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.040.0547.3749.90-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0560.0057.640.020.01
OklahomaB120.040.0586.9682.580.030.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0536.3636.20-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0550.0051.280.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0517.3920.66-0.05-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.0550.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0576.1972.310.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0566.6764.730.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0550.0044.680.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0568.1871.310.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0558.3359.960.010.01
VermontAE0.040.0552.0054.870.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0545.4546.21-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.060.0320.8321.68-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.51-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0325.0029.28-0.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0381.8282.620.040.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.320.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.260.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.660.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.54-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0358.3358.480.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0345.8342.32-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0369.5770.070.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.160.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.010.01
Texas TechB120.000.0360.8755.300.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.80-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0340.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.040.0326.0929.18-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0042.85-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0360.8760.530.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0386.9686.650.000.02
ColoradoP120.040.0369.5765.310.020.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.6418.18-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0352.0050.230.000.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.70-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1751.980.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.130.030.02
HartfordAE0.040.0325.0026.74-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0370.8368.590.000.01
KansasB120.040.0382.6179.190.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0321.7423.40-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.03-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.980.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0363.6462.150.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0365.2267.120.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0333.3333.07-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0345.8346.63-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0328.5729.66-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.730.010.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.42-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.040.0341.6742.61-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.76-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.86-0.03-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5832.01-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0372.7370.400.020.01
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.270.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0365.2266.190.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0376.1973.410.020.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0352.1755.090.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.040.0352.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.040.0313.6413.63-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.040.0362.5060.110.010.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.060.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5731.30-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0343.4842.47-0.01-0.00