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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:36.0
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:44
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-836.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11American (310.0)PatH62-56W100%0.0
11-15Georgetown (106.0)BEA75-76W100%0.0
11-20Towson (88.0)CAAH71-66W100%0.0
11-22Stony Brook (176.0)AEH77-63W100%0.0
11-25Richmond (80.0)A10N82-88W100%0.0
11-26Kansas St. (57.0)B12N69-68W100%0.0
11-29Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH59-73L0%0.0
12-3Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H71-70W100%0.0
12-7Howard (337.0)MEACH79-56W100%0.0
12-10Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH66-56W100%0.0
12-12Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH92-66W100%0.0
12-20Charlotte (240.0)CUSAN88-72W100%0.0
12-27Illinois (62.0)B10H84-59W100%0.0
1-1Nebraska (107.0)B10H65-67L0%0.0
1-7Michigan (25.0)B10A70-77W100%0.0
1-10Indiana (79.0)B10H75-72W100%0.0
1-14Illinois (62.0)B10A56-62W100%0.0
1-19Iowa (81.0)B10A76-84W100%0.0
1-24Rutgers (177.0)B10H67-55W100%0.0
1-28Minnesota (20.0)B10A78-85W100%0.0
1-31Ohio St. (90.0)B10A71-77W100%0.0
2-4Purdue (19.0)B10H72-73L0%0.0
2-7Penn St. (101.0)B10A70-64L0%0.0
2-11Ohio St. (90.0)B10H86-77W100%0.0
2-15Northwestern (50.0)B10A64-74W100%0.0
2-19Wisconsin (35.0)B10A71-60L0%0.0
2-22Minnesota (20.0)B10H75-89L0%0.0
2-25Iowa (81.0)B10H69-83L0%0.0
2-28Rutgers (177.0)B10A59-79W100%0.0
3-4Michigan St. (51.0)B10H63-60W100%0.0
3-10Northwestern (50.0)B10H64-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1026.0826.0869.0369.039.939.93
RutgersB103.923.9246.6746.67-0.26-0.26
NorthwesternB103.903.9068.7568.751.461.46
IowaB103.833.8356.6756.670.510.51
Ohio St.B103.823.8256.6756.670.510.51
MinnesotaB103.823.8274.1974.191.851.85
IllinoisB103.813.8158.6258.620.660.66
MichiganB102.392.3970.5970.590.980.98
WisconsinB102.382.3872.7372.731.081.08
Penn St.B102.342.3443.7543.75-0.29-0.29
Michigan St.B102.312.3159.3859.380.430.43
IndianaB102.282.2856.2556.250.280.28
NebraskaB102.282.2834.4834.48-0.71-0.71
PurdueB102.252.2577.4277.421.241.24
HowardMEAC1.711.7125.8125.81-0.83-0.83
Stony BrookAE1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
GeorgetownBE1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6963.3363.330.450.45
Kansas St.B121.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
TowsonCAA1.641.6461.2961.290.370.37
AmericanPat1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
Jacksonville St.OVC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
PittsburghACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
CharlotteCUSA1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
RichmondA101.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
West VirginiaB120.180.1876.4776.470.090.09
Iowa St.B120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
VirginiaACC0.170.1768.7568.750.070.07
St. John'sBE0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
TexasB120.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
KansasB120.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
DePaulBE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
ElonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Texas TechB120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ButlerBE0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
North TexasCUSA0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LafayettePat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01