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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Maryland

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:14.0
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:32
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-814.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH80-56W100%0.0
11-17Georgetown (106.0)BEH75-71W100%0.0
11-20Rider (242.0)MAACH65-58W100%0.0
11-24Illinois St. (114.0)MVCN66-77W100%0.0
11-25Rhode Island (119.0)A10N86-63W100%0.0
11-28Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH80-63W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina (5.0)ACCA89-81L0%0.0
12-4St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH96-55W100%0.0
12-8Connecticut (32.0)AmerN66-76W100%0.0
12-12Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
12-19Princeton (39.0)IvyN82-61W100%0.0
12-27Marshall (128.0)CUSAH87-67W100%0.0
12-30Penn St. (125.0)B10H70-64W100%0.0
1-2Northwestern (115.0)B10A59-72W100%0.0
1-6Rutgers (294.0)B10H88-63W100%0.0
1-9Wisconsin (43.0)B10A60-63W100%0.0
1-12Michigan (56.0)B10A70-67L0%0.0
1-16Ohio St. (74.0)B10H100-65W100%0.0
1-19Northwestern (115.0)B10H62-56W100%0.0
1-23Michigan St. (12.0)B10A74-65L0%0.0
1-28Iowa (28.0)B10H74-68W100%0.0
1-31Ohio St. (74.0)B10A61-66W100%0.0
2-3Nebraska (165.0)B10A65-70W100%0.0
2-6Purdue (15.0)B10H72-61W100%0.0
2-13Wisconsin (43.0)B10H57-70L0%0.0
2-18Minnesota (257.0)B10A68-63L0%0.0
2-21Michigan (56.0)B10H86-82W100%0.0
2-27Purdue (15.0)B10A83-79L0%0.0
3-3Illinois (149.0)B10H81-55W100%0.0
3-6Indiana (24.0)B10A80-62L0%0.0
3-11Nebraska (165.0)B10N97-86W100%0.0
3-12Michigan St. (12.0)B10N64-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandB1026.1126.1176.5676.5613.8713.87
Michigan St.B103.853.8584.3884.382.642.64
PurdueB103.843.8478.1278.122.162.16
NebraskaB103.823.8250.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB103.823.8264.5264.521.111.11
Ohio St.B103.823.8264.5264.521.111.11
NorthwesternB103.773.7766.6766.671.261.26
WisconsinB103.763.7663.3363.331.001.00
IllinoisB102.282.2845.4545.45-0.21-0.21
Penn St.B102.282.2851.6151.610.070.07
RutgersB102.252.2520.0020.00-1.35-1.35
IndianaB102.232.2377.4277.421.221.22
IowaB102.232.2370.0070.000.890.89
MinnesotaB102.212.2123.3323.33-1.18-1.18
ConnecticutAmer1.681.6872.7372.730.760.76
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.661.6643.7543.75-0.21-0.21
GeorgetownBE1.661.6646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.661.6630.0030.00-0.66-0.66
Rhode IslandA101.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
RiderMAAC1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
St. Francis PANEC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
North CarolinaACC1.611.6181.8281.821.031.03
Cleveland St.Horz1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
PrincetonIvy1.591.5980.7780.770.980.98
Illinois St.MVC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
MarshallCUSA1.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
TempleAmer0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
Notre DameACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
DePaulBE0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.040.04
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
VillanovaBE0.120.1285.2985.290.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
MemphisAmer0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
BrownIvy0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
MissouriSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.070.07
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ButlerBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0729.1729.17-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
La SalleA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00