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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Maryland

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:112.8
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:48
Current Record:13-9
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.05%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1159.10.16%
18-1272.41.92%
17-1387.19.96%
16-14101.626.31%
15-15116.337.27%
14-16131.521.30%
13-17147.73.07%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Maryland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13NC Wilmington (207.8)CAAH71-62W100%0.0
11-17Alabama (30.4)SECN62-42L0%0.0
11-18Colorado (75.2)P12N71-78W100%0.0
11-20Iona (46.0)MAACN63-89L0%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)ASunH73-67W100%0.0
11-29Illinois (39.4)B10H62-71L0%0.0
12-4Notre Dame (66.5)BEN78-71W100%0.0
12-7Mount St. Mary's (291.1)NECH77-74W100%0.0
12-14Florida International (212.8)SBH65-61W100%0.0
12-23Radford (335.2)BSthH65-60W100%0.0
12-28Albany (208.3)AEH83-72W100%0.0
12-31Samford (254.7)SCH75-63W100%0.0
1-3Cornell (178.3)IvyH70-62W100%0.0
1-8North Carolina St. (62.9)ACCA79-74L0%0.0
1-11Wake Forest (171.6)ACCH70-64W100%0.0
1-15Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCH61-50W100%0.0
1-17Florida St. (21.9)ACCA84-70L0%0.0
1-21Temple (24.4)A10A73-60L0%0.0
1-25Duke (4.2)ACCH61-74L0%0.0
1-28Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCH73-69W100%0.0
2-1Miami FL (64.4)ACCA90-86L0%0.0
2-4North Carolina (4.6)ACCH74-83L0%0.0
2-7Clemson (148.3)ACCA0-025%-7.4
2-11Duke (4.2)ACCA0-05%-18.4
2-16Boston College (248.2)ACCH0-084%11.0
2-18Virginia (39.5)ACCA0-09%-14.7
2-21Miami FL (64.4)ACCH0-039%-3.1
2-25Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA0-036%-3.9
2-29North Carolina (4.6)ACCA0-03%-19.8
3-4Virginia (39.5)ACCH0-023%-8.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Maryland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Maryland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Maryland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MarylandACC26.1226.1250.0044.320.00-2.97
North CarolinaACC2.583.9186.3682.121.872.51
DukeACC2.523.8885.7182.091.802.49
Miami FLACC2.473.8863.1658.500.650.66
Georgia TechACC2.583.8640.9142.85-0.47-0.55
VirginiaACC0.313.8581.8276.290.192.03
Virginia TechACC2.532.3059.0957.040.460.32
North Carolina St.ACC2.532.3069.5763.240.990.61
Florida St.ACC2.522.3071.4370.731.080.95
Wake ForestACC2.622.3050.0045.160.00-0.22
Boston CollegeACC0.352.2730.4326.81-0.14-1.05
ClemsonACC0.312.2750.0047.440.00-0.12
AlbanyAE2.381.7362.5062.440.600.43
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.331.7252.3850.710.110.02
AlabamaSEC2.321.7266.6768.030.770.62
CornellIvy2.371.7238.8943.04-0.53-0.24
TempleA102.321.7276.1974.201.220.83
IllinoisB102.331.7071.4363.241.000.45
NC WilmingtonCAA2.321.6940.9137.39-0.42-0.43
Florida InternationalSB2.321.6935.0038.59-0.70-0.39
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.321.6927.2729.63-1.05-0.69
ColoradoP122.271.6770.0064.970.910.50
IonaMAAC2.271.6778.2679.421.280.98
Notre DameBE2.271.6768.1864.740.830.49
RadfordBSth2.271.679.0913.57-1.86-1.21
SamfordSC2.271.6735.0036.61-0.68-0.45
NC GreensboroSC0.210.2034.7833.46-0.07-0.07
George MasonCAA0.200.2076.0072.500.100.09
PurdueB100.260.1965.2260.580.080.04
Appalachian St.SC0.210.1735.0039.29-0.06-0.04
North FloridaASun0.210.1745.8346.68-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.240.1745.4545.55-0.02-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1759.0957.280.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.190.1628.0028.91-0.09-0.07
MichiganB100.050.1672.7366.810.020.05
Michigan St.B100.200.1676.1972.910.110.07
JacksonvilleASun0.260.1517.3922.00-0.17-0.08
MercerASun0.210.1570.8371.640.090.06
DelawareCAA0.210.1447.8350.65-0.010.00
DavidsonSC0.160.1476.1976.760.080.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.160.1454.5556.840.010.02
Penn St.B100.210.1441.6738.67-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.260.1460.8760.960.060.03
ElonSC0.150.1450.0047.590.00-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.200.1477.2773.450.110.07
KentuckySEC0.200.1495.8392.570.190.12
MassachusettsA100.110.1473.9168.580.050.05
WinthropBSth0.100.1434.7834.61-0.03-0.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.150.1480.0078.060.090.08
GeorgiaSEC0.200.1445.4541.20-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.210.1460.0059.060.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.200.1440.9142.96-0.04-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1462.5062.490.040.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.150.1468.1867.640.050.05
Florida AtlanticSB0.170.1236.3639.72-0.05-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.210.1266.6769.690.070.05
HarvardIvy0.110.1290.4887.910.090.09
PrincetonIvy0.160.1247.3752.87-0.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.150.1214.2917.17-0.11-0.08
OregonP120.050.1269.5764.530.020.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1152.3852.860.000.01
CharlotteA100.160.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
Long IslandNEC0.200.1170.8371.050.080.05
BinghamtonAE0.110.110.004.02-0.11-0.10
BelmontASun0.100.1169.5773.280.040.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1134.7838.77-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1163.6456.710.030.02
Boston UniversityAE0.110.1148.0051.88-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.150.1166.6768.050.050.04
BryantNEC0.100.118.3310.86-0.08-0.09
NebraskaB100.150.1152.3846.680.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.200.1156.0055.650.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1140.9143.66-0.02-0.01
RutgersBE0.110.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.060.1165.2265.170.020.03
FordhamA100.100.1140.9134.50-0.02-0.03
MaineAE0.150.1150.0049.730.00-0.00
RichmondA100.200.1150.0048.490.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.200.1169.5761.310.080.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1135.2939.85-0.04-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1161.9055.140.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1140.9139.56-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.150.1160.8761.370.030.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1186.9685.460.080.08
SyracuseBE0.190.1195.8392.010.180.09
WisconsinB100.100.1175.0073.970.050.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.160.0940.0041.30-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.0952.3852.870.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0972.2263.190.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0927.2723.80-0.02-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0934.7837.24-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0972.2271.970.050.04
FurmanSC0.050.0947.6248.83-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0966.6768.550.020.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0930.4331.43-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.100.0931.8231.31-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.100.0943.4843.82-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.0969.5768.290.040.03
ToledoMAC0.150.0938.1040.81-0.04-0.02
LibertyBSth0.150.0927.2727.21-0.07-0.04
Longwoodind0.050.0930.0027.84-0.02-0.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0957.1449.540.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.160.0982.6180.420.100.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0955.0060.330.010.02
High PointBSth0.100.0931.8232.75-0.04-0.03
HofstraCAA0.100.0932.0035.39-0.03-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.150.0912.5013.44-0.11-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.088.7012.13-0.08-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.0856.5255.950.020.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0879.1778.100.030.05
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0868.0069.070.030.03
MaristMAAC0.100.0834.7833.43-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0852.3857.860.000.01
TowsonCAA0.050.084.005.26-0.05-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0866.6760.800.040.02
WashingtonP120.110.0869.5766.540.040.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0844.0045.89-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0817.6527.10-0.07-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0856.5248.810.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.140.0817.3920.97-0.09-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.0820.8320.60-0.06-0.05
RiderMAAC0.050.0837.5038.52-0.01-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.150.0868.1863.990.050.02
Oklahoma St.B120.150.0845.4540.70-0.01-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0845.4544.66-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.090.0860.0062.490.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0835.0038.58-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.100.0875.0075.780.050.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0850.0058.160.000.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0882.6181.440.070.05
St. John'sBE0.050.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0627.2735.02-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.120.0655.0054.800.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.110.0683.3384.760.070.04
TroySB0.050.0628.5730.17-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.110.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.110.0665.2263.790.030.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0675.0074.610.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.068.7011.67-0.09-0.05
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6463.160.010.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0654.5556.090.000.01
UtahP120.050.0618.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0647.6248.82-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.0668.4266.450.040.02
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0658.3359.980.010.01
DenverSB0.050.0670.8372.230.020.03
The CitadelSC0.050.069.5211.44-0.04-0.05
WoffordSC0.100.0659.0957.930.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0626.3229.79-0.05-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0645.4545.70-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.060.0669.5771.510.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0660.0058.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.8759.760.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.0645.0044.15-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0682.6184.570.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.0659.0959.720.020.01
CincinnatiBE0.100.0669.5765.470.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0640.9138.38-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0662.5062.060.030.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0679.1775.980.060.03
NavyPat0.090.069.5213.19-0.08-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.0647.8348.56-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0669.5765.150.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0617.3919.81-0.06-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0652.1750.090.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.5554.300.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0682.6177.630.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0019.96-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0678.2672.340.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0637.5041.54-0.02-0.01
Seattleind0.000.0623.5333.28-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0610.0014.93-0.00-0.04
St. LouisA100.050.0677.2777.670.030.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0621.7424.58-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0661.9058.590.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.000.0635.0039.38-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.100.0547.8349.03-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.9577.380.030.03
IowaB100.000.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.100.0572.7368.280.050.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0538.8943.93-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0556.5250.270.000.00
Seton HallBE0.100.0565.2263.740.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0569.5765.870.040.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0545.4546.08-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.4544.02-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0581.8281.490.060.03
KansasB120.050.0578.2678.390.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0571.4373.350.020.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0513.6416.35-0.07-0.04
MissouriB120.100.0591.3087.180.080.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.0023.75-0.02-0.03
PittsburghBE0.090.0560.8758.160.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0556.5253.100.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0343.4844.25-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0337.5038.33-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0373.9175.000.030.02
LehighPat0.060.0373.9174.910.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.03
North TexasSB0.000.0350.0050.010.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.940.030.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0357.1460.750.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0350.0051.530.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.52-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.03-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0376.1970.730.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0359.0956.350.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0334.7832.08-0.00-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.000.0357.1453.120.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0340.9142.05-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
NevadaWAC0.000.0380.9576.420.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0381.8281.030.000.02
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0334.7832.06-0.00-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.000.0343.4843.31-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8639.66-0.00-0.01
XavierA100.000.0365.2263.740.000.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.000.020.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.05-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0354.5548.600.00-0.00