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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:155.0
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:127
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16155.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A77-76L0%0.0
11-15Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH103-98W100%0.0
11-19Wright St. (115.0)HorzA78-82W100%0.0
11-22Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA80-70L0%0.0
11-25Evansville (188.0)MVCN83-79W100%0.0
11-26Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAN73-70L0%0.0
11-27UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAN102-77L0%0.0
12-3Green Bay (157.0)HorzH77-78L0%0.0
12-7Detroit (289.0)HorzH73-65W100%0.0
12-10Marshall (112.0)CUSAA111-105L0%0.0
12-17Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH78-56W100%0.0
12-20Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH74-70W100%0.0
1-3Buffalo (146.0)MACH86-54W100%0.0
1-7Miami OH (302.0)MACH91-76W100%0.0
1-10Western Michigan (173.0)MACA90-74L0%0.0
1-13Central Michigan (216.0)MACA96-88L0%0.0
1-17Bowling Green (225.0)MACH85-73W100%0.0
1-21Kent St. (142.0)MACA85-61L0%0.0
1-24Ohio (117.0)MACA76-79W100%0.0
1-28Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH72-74L0%0.0
1-31Ball St. (169.0)MACA81-80L0%0.0
2-4Bowling Green (225.0)MACA104-100L0%0.0
2-7Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH73-57W100%0.0
2-11Kent St. (142.0)MACH78-58W100%0.0
2-14Akron (58.0)MACA71-65L0%0.0
2-18Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA80-88W100%0.0
2-21Western Michigan (173.0)MACH56-61L0%0.0
2-24Central Michigan (216.0)MACH87-66W100%0.0
2-28Ball St. (169.0)MACH74-82L0%0.0
3-3Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA56-60W100%0.0
3-6Bowling Green (225.0)MACH77-62W100%0.0
3-9Ohio (117.0)MACN67-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC26.3626.3648.5348.53-0.78-0.78
Bowling GreenMAC5.425.4239.2939.29-1.16-1.16
Kent St.MAC4.024.0262.5062.501.011.01
Ball St.MAC3.973.9760.0060.000.790.79
Western MichiganMAC3.973.9744.8344.83-0.41-0.41
Eastern MichiganMAC3.963.9644.4444.44-0.44-0.44
OhioMAC3.953.9564.2964.291.131.13
Central MichiganMAC3.943.9446.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Northern IllinoisMAC3.913.9140.7440.74-0.72-0.72
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.243.2487.1087.102.412.41
AkronMAC2.572.5775.0075.001.291.29
Miami OHMAC2.452.4531.0331.03-0.93-0.93
BuffaloMAC2.422.4251.7251.720.080.08
Green BayHorz1.901.9053.5753.570.140.14
DetroitHorz1.851.8524.1424.14-0.96-0.96
Wright St.Horz1.821.8262.0762.070.440.44
MarshallCUSA1.781.7854.5554.550.160.16
EvansvilleMVC1.761.7646.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Youngstown St.Horz1.741.7435.4835.48-0.51-0.51
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6983.8783.871.141.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.661.6655.1755.170.170.17
Saint Joseph'sA101.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.380.3826.6726.67-0.18-0.18
OaklandHorz0.360.3673.3373.330.170.17
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.3141.9441.94-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.3129.4129.41-0.13-0.13
Indiana St.MVC0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Northern KentuckyHorz0.280.2868.7568.750.110.11
ValparaisoHorz0.260.2674.1974.190.120.12
Murray St.OVC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.200.2017.2417.24-0.13-0.13
UTEPCUSA0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1581.2581.250.100.10
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
William & MaryCAA0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
UTSACUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
DelawareCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01