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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:38.0
Current RPI:38
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:147
Current Record:26-6
Expected Record:26-6
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-638.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Boston College (207.0)ACCA92-95W100%0.0
11-18Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH79-69W100%0.0
11-22Stony Brook (165.0)AEN99-103W100%0.0
11-23Detroit (230.0)HorzA78-80W100%0.0
11-24Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAN94-74W100%0.0
12-4Detroit (230.0)HorzH91-75W100%0.0
12-7Robert Morris (129.0)NECA77-80W100%0.0
12-14Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH77-61W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA65-78W100%0.0
12-21Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH71-67W100%0.0
12-28Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH85-66W100%0.0
12-30Kansas (3.0)B12A93-83L0%0.0
1-8Western Michigan (66.0)MACA87-76L0%0.0
1-11Central Michigan (294.0)MACH86-71W100%0.0
1-15Buffalo (106.0)MACH67-65W100%0.0
1-18Akron (93.0)MACA61-75W100%0.0
1-22Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH77-68W100%0.0
1-26Kent St. (213.0)MACH81-78W100%0.0
1-29Miami OH (161.0)MACA70-83W100%0.0
2-1Ohio (87.0)MACA95-90L0%0.0
2-5Bowling Green (194.0)MACH83-76W100%0.0
2-8Ball St. (309.0)MACA73-80W100%0.0
2-12Ohio (87.0)MACH82-76W100%0.0
2-15Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA65-44L0%0.0
2-20Bowling Green (194.0)MACA58-60W100%0.0
2-23Ball St. (309.0)MACH85-74W100%0.0
2-26Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA74-66L0%0.0
3-1Western Michigan (66.0)MACH96-85W100%0.0
3-4Central Michigan (294.0)MACA69-73W100%0.0
3-8Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH77-66W100%0.0
3-14Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACN59-44W100%0.0
3-15Western Michigan (66.0)MACN98-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC26.4226.4285.7185.7118.8718.87
Eastern MichiganMAC5.615.6158.6258.620.970.97
Western MichiganMAC5.455.4571.4371.432.342.34
Northern IllinoisMAC4.024.0244.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Central MichiganMAC3.963.9629.6329.63-1.61-1.61
Ball St.MAC3.963.9611.5411.54-3.04-3.04
OhioMAC3.923.9267.7467.741.391.39
Bowling GreenMAC3.913.9137.9337.93-0.94-0.94
DetroitHorz3.303.3039.2939.29-0.71-0.71
AkronMAC2.582.5865.6265.620.810.81
Miami OHMAC2.422.4244.8344.83-0.25-0.25
BuffaloMAC2.422.4266.6766.670.810.81
Kent St.MAC2.382.3850.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz1.871.8765.5265.520.580.58
Robert MorrisNEC1.691.6963.6463.640.460.46
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.661.6627.5927.59-0.75-0.75
Stony BrookAE1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Boston CollegeACC1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
Florida A&MMEAC1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Arkansas St.SB1.561.5658.6258.620.270.27
KansasB121.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.561.5671.4371.430.670.67
OaklandHorz0.380.3835.4835.48-0.11-0.11
ValparaisoHorz0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2660.6160.610.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
Green BayHorz0.230.2377.7877.780.130.13
MassachusettsA100.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.2041.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2016.6716.67-0.14-0.14
James MadisonCAA0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.160.1613.7913.79-0.11-0.11
DukeACC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Iowa St.B120.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.100.103.703.70-0.09-0.09
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01