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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:172.5
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:36
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-751.00.01%
22-844.00.01%
21-972.20.10%
20-1077.00.64%
19-1193.02.06%
18-12107.14.26%
17-13122.78.16%
16-14139.913.06%
15-15157.817.62%
14-16176.517.79%
13-17195.714.87%
12-18214.311.24%
11-19233.86.07%
10-20251.22.62%
9-21266.31.09%
8-22281.20.30%
7-23298.90.07%
6-24309.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10A77-76L0%0.0
11-15Youngstown St. (238.3)HorzH103-98W100%0.0
11-19Wright St. (167.7)HorzA78-82W100%0.0
11-22Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAA80-70L0%0.0
11-25Evansville (186.0)MVCN83-79W100%0.0
11-26Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAN73-70L0%0.0
11-27UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAN102-77L0%0.0
12-3Green Bay (162.2)HorzH77-78L0%0.0
12-7Detroit (293.6)HorzH0-084%11.8
12-10Marshall (120.3)CUSAA0-036%-4.2
12-17Southeastern Louisiana (230.6)SlndH0-076%8.3
12-20Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCH0-046%-1.1
1-3Buffalo (134.9)MACH0-055%1.6
1-7Miami OH (294.8)MACH0-081%10.7
1-10Western Michigan (219.2)MACA0-047%-0.9
1-14Central Michigan (150.9)MACA0-037%-3.9
1-17Bowling Green (237.3)MACH0-067%5.4
1-21Kent St. (195.3)MACA0-036%-4.2
1-24Ohio (88.0)MACA0-023%-8.8
1-28Northern Illinois (208.8)MACH0-062%3.8
1-31Ball St. (226.5)MACA0-044%-1.9
2-4Bowling Green (237.3)MACA0-047%-0.8
2-7Eastern Michigan (104.9)MACH0-047%-0.8
2-11Kent St. (195.3)MACH0-057%2.0
2-14Akron (83.8)MACA0-021%-9.6
2-18Northern Illinois (208.8)MACA0-042%-2.5
2-21Western Michigan (219.2)MACH0-067%5.4
2-25Central Michigan (150.9)MACH0-058%2.3
2-28Ball St. (226.5)MACH0-064%4.3
3-3Eastern Michigan (104.9)MACA0-028%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC29.0926.3239.4746.58-6.12-1.80
Central MichiganMAC0.784.1475.0059.180.390.76
Ball St.MAC0.004.1250.0050.460.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.524.1216.6735.39-0.35-1.20
Bowling GreenMAC0.784.1125.0040.65-0.39-0.77
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.1142.8645.32-0.00-0.38
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.1150.0055.580.000.46
Kent St.MAC0.004.0657.1454.250.000.34
Middle TennesseeCUSA13.413.4583.3373.998.941.65
AkronMAC0.392.5371.4368.580.170.94
Miami OHMAC0.392.5037.5028.83-0.10-1.06
OhioMAC0.002.5083.3371.300.001.06
BuffaloMAC0.002.4733.3352.29-0.000.11
Green BayHorz6.252.0128.5747.03-2.68-0.12
DetroitHorz0.001.960.0021.48-0.00-1.12
Wright St.Horz6.251.9571.4353.922.680.15
Youngstown St.Horz6.251.8742.8639.44-0.89-0.39
EvansvilleMVC7.551.8657.1446.741.08-0.12
MarshallCUSA0.001.8462.5053.200.000.12
UNC WilmingtonCAA7.421.8180.0076.504.450.96
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.451.7871.4359.020.190.32
Saint Joseph'sA106.251.7033.3343.46-2.08-0.22
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.6742.8651.25-0.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.3728.5731.07-0.00-0.14
OaklandHorz0.000.3485.7177.000.000.19
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.3242.8644.89-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2942.8650.98-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.2937.5037.96-0.00-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2985.7175.250.000.14
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.2657.1453.860.000.02
FIUCUSA0.390.2314.2935.05-0.28-0.07
Murray St.OVC1.170.2350.0060.950.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2337.5035.03-0.00-0.07
BradleyMVC0.000.1737.5025.74-0.00-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.1775.0070.350.000.07
UTEPCUSA0.000.1720.0035.46-0.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.1750.0059.840.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1533.3351.57-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.390.1457.1449.420.06-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1460.0067.820.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1428.5738.92-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1275.0048.980.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.74-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1262.5054.660.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1112.5030.51-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0020.21-0.00-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1160.0058.900.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1133.3352.49-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1177.7886.650.000.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0013.32-0.00-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0017.16-0.00-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.000.1112.5030.17-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1125.0035.75-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0036.38-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3346.06-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1157.1472.530.000.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1133.3331.35-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1162.5050.630.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.520.1150.0050.980.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1162.5066.500.000.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.820.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1144.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.390.0950.0056.890.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0966.6751.140.000.00
VillanovaBE0.450.09100.0084.740.450.06
BelmontOVC0.000.0857.1464.500.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0850.0041.700.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.390.0850.0061.350.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0825.0031.76-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.390.0812.5034.49-0.29-0.03
South AlabamaSB1.170.0871.4357.210.500.01
UMKCWAC0.390.0855.5649.660.04-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.440.000.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0850.0041.460.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0862.5046.490.00-0.01
MississippiSEC1.230.0875.0047.990.61-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0875.0070.570.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0825.0023.99-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0820.0017.37-0.00-0.05
UTSACUSA0.000.0825.0029.90-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0875.0072.930.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3351.98-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5050.92-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.400.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0625.0043.29-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0688.8966.920.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.200.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.88-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.81-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.390.060.0032.29-0.39-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0612.5028.64-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.67-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.390.0637.5044.42-0.10-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.540.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.51-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.390.0630.0045.49-0.16-0.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0086.650.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.140.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.520.0683.3379.920.350.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.390.0616.6738.87-0.26-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.450.0675.0050.980.220.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.49-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.740.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0657.1456.540.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.170.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6770.400.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0025.31-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.780.0685.7169.920.560.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.80-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0655.5643.870.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.390.0350.0064.910.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.090.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0388.8967.470.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0092.200.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.390.0362.5060.090.100.01
Kansas St.B120.390.0388.8956.710.300.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0342.8640.38-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.390.0387.5075.690.290.01
MaineAE0.000.0314.2923.40-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2232.01-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.68-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.390.0360.0058.780.080.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0362.5062.120.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.390.0333.3355.64-0.130.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.390.0342.8645.98-0.06-0.00
Penn St.B100.390.0366.6746.170.13-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.260.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0344.4453.29-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8629.20-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.64-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0342.8643.78-0.06-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0337.5044.87-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0342.8635.40-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.66-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.450.0375.0064.820.220.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.02-0.00-0.01