Toledo

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	193.0
Current RPI:	193
Expected SOS:	271
Current SOS:	271
Current Record:	15-13
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	10-6
Expected Conf Record:	10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-4
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	244
Expected OOC SOS:	277

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	193.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	62-50	L	0%
11-12	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	A	82-56	L	0%
11-14	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	84-81	L	0%
11-21	Samford (291.0)	SC	N	82-69	W	100%
11-22	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	72-66	L	0%
11-28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	80-68	W	100%
12-1	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	78-73	L	0%
12-5	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	79-73	L	0%
12-8	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	59-67	W	100%
12-29	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	74-55	W	100%
12-31	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	53-58	L	0%
1-9	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	58-70	W	100%
1-12	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	76-72	W	100%
1-16	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	79-56	L	0%
1-19	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	76-67	L	0%
1-23	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	56-71	L	0%
1-26	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	75-62	W	100%
1-30	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	78-85	W	100%
2-2	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	A	64-69	W	100%
2-6	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	H	65-64	W	100%
2-9	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	H	60-52	W	100%
2-13	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	A	75-60	L	0%
2-16	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	A	64-73	W	100%
2-23	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	79-66	W	100%
2-27	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	H	62-65	L	0%
3-2	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	H	72-86	L	0%
3-5	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	70-46	W	100%
3-9	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	67-78	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Toledo	MAC	26.12	26.12	56.35	56.35	3.32	3.32
Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.43	4.43	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
Northern Illinois	MAC	4.36	4.36	14.81	14.81	-3.07	-3.07
Western Michigan	MAC	4.34	4.34	58.62	58.62	0.75	0.75
Ball St.	MAC	4.27	4.27	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Central Michigan	MAC	4.25	4.25	35.71	35.71	-1.21	-1.21
Kent St.	MAC	2.52	2.52	61.29	61.29	0.57	0.57
Buffalo	MAC	2.52	2.52	35.48	35.48	-0.73	-0.73
Bowling Green	MAC	2.49	2.49	37.93	37.93	-0.60	-0.60
Akron	MAC	2.48	2.48	80.00	80.00	1.49	1.49
Miami OH	MAC	2.48	2.48	27.59	27.59	-1.11	-1.11
Ohio	MAC	2.46	2.46	71.88	71.88	1.08	1.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	2.15	2.15	53.33	53.33	0.14	0.14
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.14	2.14	44.83	44.83	-0.22	-0.22
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.14	2.14	35.71	35.71	-0.61	-0.61
Detroit	Horz	2.02	2.02	58.62	58.62	0.35	0.35
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.94	1.94	36.67	36.67	-0.52	-0.52
Chicago St.	GWC	1.87	1.87	22.22	22.22	-1.04	-1.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.85	1.85	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.85	1.85	18.52	18.52	-1.16	-1.16
Samford	SC	1.84	1.84	33.33	33.33	-0.61	-0.61
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.81	1.81	67.74	67.74	0.64	0.64
Minnesota	B10	1.79	1.79	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.79	1.79	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Wright St.	Horz	0.42	0.42	62.50	62.50	0.10	0.10
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.39	0.39	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.36	0.36	78.12	78.12	0.20	0.20
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.36	0.36	20.00	20.00	-0.21	-0.21
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.30	0.30	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.23	0.23	78.12	78.12	0.13	0.13
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.18	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	28.00	28.00	-0.07	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	85.19	85.19	0.09	0.09
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.12	-0.12
Indiana St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Temple	A10	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.10	-0.10
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01