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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:79.0
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:91
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1379.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH71-58W100%0.0
11-18VCU (15.0)A10A87-78L0%0.0
11-21Oregon (27.0)P12A78-68L0%0.0
11-24Bucknell (136.0)PatH92-65W100%0.0
11-25Detroit (205.0)HorzH79-82L0%0.0
11-29Oakland (155.0)HorzA81-79L0%0.0
12-3Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA54-59W100%0.0
12-6Chicago St. (333.0)WACH87-59W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH73-65W100%0.0
12-17Robert Morris (171.0)NECH83-57W100%0.0
12-20McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA69-83W100%0.0
12-29Duke (6.0)ACCA86-69L0%0.0
1-3Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA55-57W100%0.0
1-6Central Michigan (70.0)MACH62-65L0%0.0
1-9Akron (115.0)MACH84-67W100%0.0
1-14Ohio (231.0)MACA73-80W100%0.0
1-17Western Michigan (119.0)MACH78-81L0%0.0
1-21Kent St. (94.0)MACA67-60L0%0.0
1-24Bowling Green (109.0)MACH71-67W100%0.0
1-27Miami OH (229.0)MACH70-65W100%0.0
1-31Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA69-80W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH84-60W100%0.0
2-7Ball St. (284.0)MACA61-72W100%0.0
2-10Buffalo (28.0)MACA88-92W100%0.0
2-13Kent St. (94.0)MACH75-76L0%0.0
2-18Akron (115.0)MACA66-68W100%0.0
2-21Western Michigan (119.0)MACA87-97W100%0.0
2-25Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH82-84L0%0.0
2-28Ball St. (284.0)MACH70-59W100%0.0
3-3Central Michigan (70.0)MACA85-77L0%0.0
3-6Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA85-59L0%0.0
3-12Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACN78-67W100%0.0
3-13Central Michigan (70.0)MACN75-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC26.3826.3861.6461.646.146.14
Eastern MichiganMAC5.335.3359.2659.260.990.99
Central MichiganMAC5.305.3068.0068.001.911.91
Western MichiganMAC3.913.9158.6258.620.670.67
AkronMAC3.863.8662.5062.500.960.96
Ball St.MAC3.843.8422.2222.22-2.13-2.13
Northern IllinoisMAC3.833.8344.4444.44-0.43-0.43
Kent St.MAC3.723.7262.0762.070.900.90
Bowling GreenMAC2.472.4768.9768.970.940.94
BuffaloMAC2.442.4474.1974.191.181.18
OhioMAC2.362.3634.4834.48-0.73-0.73
Miami OHMAC2.362.3640.0040.00-0.47-0.47
OaklandHorz1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
DetroitHorz1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Cleveland St.Horz1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
McNeese St.Slnd1.601.6042.3142.31-0.25-0.25
Chicago St.WAC1.571.5717.8617.86-1.01-1.01
VCUA101.561.5673.5373.530.740.74
OregonP121.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
Robert MorrisNEC1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
Arkansas St.SB1.521.5237.0437.04-0.39-0.39
BucknellPat1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
DukeACC1.521.5287.5087.501.141.14
Northern ArizonaBSky1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
Northern KentuckyASun1.521.5240.7440.74-0.28-0.28
Youngstown St.Horz0.430.4327.5927.59-0.19-0.19
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2383.3383.330.150.15
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Wright St.Horz0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
NorthwesternB100.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
DaytonA100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
MichiganB100.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
MaineAE0.130.1310.0010.00-0.11-0.11
IdahoBSky0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
BryantNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1138.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ArizonaP120.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
LafayettePat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
ArmyPat0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
DuquesneA100.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.040.0413.3313.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00