Toledo

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	277.2
Current RPI:	285
Expected SOS:	294
Current SOS:	292
Current Record:	8-13
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	2-7
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	264
Expected OOC SOS:	305

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-13	219.9	0.11%
15-14	235.0	1.42%
14-15	250.0	7.57%
13-16	264.8	20.48%
12-17	276.9	30.58%
11-18	286.9	25.22%
10-19	295.1	11.90%
9-20	302.6	2.48%
8-21	310.9	0.23%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-18	Texas St. (316.7)	Slnd	N	91-94	L	0%	0.0
11-19	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	N	70-75	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	A	54-64	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	82-67	W	100%	0.0
11-30	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	H	75-73	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Chicago St. (335.8)	GWC	A	61-73	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Temple (24.4)	A10	H	58-77	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	55-57	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	86-77	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	70-72	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	83-80	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	64-72	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	A	85-69	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	H	68-70	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	A	74-52	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	H	71-41	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	A	41-38	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	A	61-63	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	H	61-77	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	86-72	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Buffalo (70.7)	MAC	H	65-72	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	H	0-0		24%	-7.8
2-11	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	A	0-0		16%	-10.6
2-15	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	A	0-0		23%	-7.9
2-18	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	A	0-0		52%	0.6
2-22	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	H	0-0		65%	4.1
2-25	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	H	0-0		51%	0.3
2-29	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	A	0-0		79%	8.7
3-3	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	0-0		73%	6.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Toledo	MAC	26.20	26.18	35.51	38.77	-7.59	-5.88
Central Michigan	MAC	2.84	4.17	25.00	31.72	-1.42	-1.52
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.85	4.14	38.10	36.58	-0.68	-1.11
Western Michigan	MAC	2.78	4.14	38.10	40.71	-0.66	-0.77
Ball St.	MAC	2.84	4.14	52.63	55.04	0.15	0.42
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.78	4.13	5.56	7.04	-2.47	-3.55
Akron	MAC	2.84	2.39	66.67	66.80	0.95	0.80
Buffalo	MAC	2.84	2.38	66.67	65.16	0.95	0.72
Bowling Green	MAC	0.51	2.35	47.62	47.58	-0.02	-0.11
Kent St.	MAC	2.78	2.35	70.00	67.95	1.11	0.84
Ohio	MAC	0.47	2.33	81.82	77.23	0.30	1.27
Miami OH	MAC	2.72	2.32	31.58	35.41	-1.00	-0.68
Illinois Chicago	Horz	2.78	2.09	31.58	31.21	-1.03	-0.78
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.78	2.00	80.95	79.76	1.72	1.19
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.78	1.97	52.63	53.51	0.15	0.14
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.66	1.94	15.00	18.37	-1.87	-1.23
Temple	A10	2.55	1.90	76.19	74.20	1.34	0.92
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.61	1.88	57.14	58.09	0.37	0.30
Chicago St.	GWC	2.55	1.88	5.00	10.31	-2.30	-1.49
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.61	1.88	20.00	25.56	-1.57	-0.92
Texas St.	Slnd	2.49	1.85	17.65	24.72	-1.61	-0.94
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	1.82	26.32	29.10	-0.06	-0.76
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.44	1.78	47.62	47.01	-0.12	-0.11
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.38	1.72	40.91	37.39	-0.43	-0.43
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.38	1.72	66.67	68.59	0.79	0.64
Valparaiso	Horz	0.35	0.37	65.22	63.61	0.11	0.10
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.41	0.37	56.52	57.72	0.05	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.46	0.37	41.67	40.61	-0.08	-0.07
Detroit	Horz	0.45	0.36	47.83	49.03	-0.02	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.29	0.31	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.23	0.30	35.00	39.38	-0.07	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.24	0.22	76.19	75.94	0.12	0.12
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.21	34.78	32.06	-0.05	-0.08
Purdue	B10	0.22	0.21	65.22	60.58	0.07	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.19	18.18	21.13	-0.04	-0.11
Utah Valley	GWC	0.18	0.19	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.34	0.18	60.87	60.96	0.07	0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.17	0.18	34.78	35.50	-0.05	-0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.07	0.16	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.16	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.07
DePaul	BE	0.23	0.16	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.16	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.06
Mercer	ASun	0.22	0.15	70.83	71.64	0.09	0.07
Belmont	ASun	0.17	0.15	69.57	73.28	0.07	0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.17	0.15	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.15	8.70	11.67	-0.13	-0.11
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.14	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.13	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.13	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.12	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.12	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.16	0.12	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.16	0.12	17.39	22.00	-0.11	-0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.12	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.12	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.12	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.17	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.12	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.12	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.09	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.12	0.09	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.17	0.09	86.96	85.46	0.13	0.07
Texas Christian	MWC	0.16	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.09	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.12	-0.07
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.09	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.16	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.09	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.09	32.00	35.39	-0.04	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.09	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.06	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.09	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.09	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.09	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.06
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.09	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.07	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.07	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.07	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.12	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.05	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.08	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.00	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.07	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.11	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.00	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.00	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.00	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.00	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.03	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.00	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.00	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.00	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.00	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.00	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.00	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.00	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.00	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00