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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:153.4
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:126
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14134.929.78%
15-15156.353.53%
14-16177.216.69%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Saint Joseph's (184.4)A10A77-76L0%0.0
11-15Youngstown St. (272.1)HorzH103-98W100%0.0
11-19Wright St. (119.4)HorzA78-82W100%0.0
11-22Middle Tennessee (36.0)CUSAA80-70L0%0.0
11-25Evansville (188.3)MVCN83-79W100%0.0
11-26Middle Tennessee (36.0)CUSAN73-70L0%0.0
11-27UNC Wilmington (34.0)CAAN102-77L0%0.0
12-3Green Bay (143.9)HorzH77-78L0%0.0
12-7Detroit (270.6)HorzH73-65W100%0.0
12-10Marshall (123.8)CUSAA111-105L0%0.0
12-17Southeastern Louisiana (253.9)SlndH78-56W100%0.0
12-20Loyola Chicago (166.8)MVCH74-70W100%0.0
1-3Buffalo (151.2)MACH86-54W100%0.0
1-7Miami OH (311.0)MACH91-76W100%0.0
1-10Western Michigan (176.7)MACA90-74L0%0.0
1-13Central Michigan (205.5)MACA96-88L0%0.0
1-17Bowling Green (212.7)MACH85-73W100%0.0
1-21Kent St. (178.2)MACA85-61L0%0.0
1-24Ohio (111.2)MACA76-79W100%0.0
1-28Northern Illinois (221.7)MACH72-74L0%0.0
1-31Ball St. (192.2)MACA81-80L0%0.0
2-4Bowling Green (212.7)MACA104-100L0%0.0
2-7Eastern Michigan (170.3)MACH73-57W100%0.0
2-11Kent St. (178.2)MACH78-58W100%0.0
2-14Akron (53.3)MACA71-65L0%0.0
2-18Northern Illinois (221.7)MACA80-88W100%0.0
2-21Western Michigan (176.7)MACH56-61L0%0.0
2-24Central Michigan (205.5)MACH87-66W100%0.0
2-28Ball St. (192.2)MACH0-071%5.8
3-3Eastern Michigan (170.3)MACA0-042%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC26.3026.3249.1249.72-0.46-0.15
Central MichiganMAC4.264.1552.0050.840.170.07
Ball St.MAC2.554.1259.2659.430.470.78
Western MichiganMAC4.204.1140.0041.35-0.84-0.71
Bowling GreenMAC4.264.1142.3141.45-0.66-0.70
Northern IllinoisMAC4.234.1145.8345.84-0.35-0.34
Eastern MichiganMAC2.544.1141.6742.21-0.42-0.64
Kent St.MAC4.244.0557.6957.370.650.60
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.703.4584.6285.462.562.44
AkronMAC2.582.5377.7877.431.431.39
Miami OHMAC2.612.5030.7729.06-1.00-1.05
OhioMAC2.572.5068.0069.110.930.95
BuffaloMAC2.512.4750.0050.290.000.01
Green BayHorz2.172.0155.5655.560.240.22
DetroitHorz2.071.9625.0025.00-1.04-0.98
Wright St.Horz2.101.9564.2964.290.600.56
Youngstown St.Horz2.001.8732.1432.14-0.72-0.67
EvansvilleMVC2.011.8646.4346.43-0.14-0.13
MarshallCUSA1.981.8451.8553.420.070.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.951.8182.1482.141.251.16
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.911.7857.1457.140.270.25
Saint Joseph'sA101.821.7033.3333.87-0.61-0.55
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.791.6748.1547.57-0.07-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.410.3727.5927.59-0.19-0.17
OaklandHorz0.380.3475.8675.860.200.18
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.350.3241.3841.38-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.2923.3323.33-0.17-0.15
Indiana St.MVC0.290.2934.4834.48-0.09-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.280.2976.6776.670.150.15
Northern KentuckyHorz0.280.2665.5265.520.090.08
FIUCUSA0.200.2314.8114.35-0.14-0.16
Murray St.OVC0.250.2342.8642.86-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.260.2344.8345.81-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.160.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.190.1764.2963.720.060.05
UTEPCUSA0.190.1744.4445.02-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.190.1750.0052.300.000.01
IUPUISum0.100.1539.2939.29-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1450.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1482.7682.760.100.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1432.0030.44-0.03-0.05
PittsburghACC0.100.1251.7250.150.000.00
ElonCAA0.130.1255.1755.170.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1126.6727.00-0.06-0.05
DrakeMVC0.120.1121.4321.43-0.07-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.130.1126.6726.67-0.06-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1186.6786.670.090.08
William & MaryCAA0.130.1151.8551.850.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.117.698.10-0.11-0.09
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1148.1547.90-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.130.1150.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1125.9326.04-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1167.8668.870.050.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1123.0822.49-0.05-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1142.3142.27-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1164.2964.650.040.03
South DakotaSum0.130.1165.5265.520.040.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.0965.3865.550.030.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.0957.1457.010.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0944.4445.62-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.100.0990.0089.570.080.07
Georgia St.SB0.090.0861.5460.990.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0840.0042.28-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0833.3333.33-0.02-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0842.3142.60-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0886.2185.440.070.06
George MasonA100.100.0860.7159.910.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.0862.0760.370.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0866.6765.550.020.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0834.4833.33-0.02-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0825.9325.10-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.100.0837.0436.94-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.100.0879.3178.000.060.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0653.5753.570.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0637.9338.88-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0653.5753.570.000.00
SMUAmer0.040.0686.2186.520.030.05
SyracuseACC0.040.0656.6757.420.000.01
VermontAE0.040.0683.3383.330.020.04
Cal PolyBW0.070.0630.7732.97-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0640.0041.36-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0652.0053.420.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0675.8674.340.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0625.9325.22-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0656.0056.310.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0646.1545.04-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0639.1339.73-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0654.1752.440.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0621.4322.28-0.04-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0611.1111.53-0.05-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.5778.180.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0647.8349.16-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0642.3141.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0648.1547.91-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0658.3359.230.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0640.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0630.4331.29-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0689.6690.150.050.05
WashingtonP120.070.0632.1430.72-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0675.0074.570.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0636.0040.25-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0633.3335.14-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0655.1754.740.010.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0657.1456.750.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0626.9228.27-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.7780.770.040.03
FordhamA100.060.0642.8642.42-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0651.8553.370.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0614.8114.81-0.02-0.04
MassachusettsA100.060.0648.2847.58-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0617.2420.08-0.04-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0646.1546.81-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0613.7913.43-0.05-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.030.0667.8668.280.010.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0648.0046.19-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0611.1111.98-0.02-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
TexasB120.060.0634.4834.12-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.1752.800.010.00
WoffordSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0353.5752.450.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0358.6257.980.010.00
PacificWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.030.0375.8676.270.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.0072.040.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0367.8666.480.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0350.0052.370.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0366.6765.560.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0344.8343.04-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0319.2319.72-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0379.3177.540.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0348.0049.70-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0379.3179.060.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0320.8321.37-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0362.0761.020.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.17-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.3179.090.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0365.2266.440.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0348.2847.91-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0355.5656.670.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0352.0053.480.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0362.5062.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0317.8618.08-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0365.5266.270.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0344.4441.81-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.0057.060.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.0762.620.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0333.3332.49-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0362.9663.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0341.6741.50-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0351.8551.280.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0381.4880.740.020.02
DuquesneA100.000.0334.4834.29-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0359.2658.100.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.6796.670.030.03
LafayettePat0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0342.8643.57-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.290.020.02
PennIvy0.030.0348.0049.55-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0375.0075.780.020.01
RichmondA100.030.0360.7161.450.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.990.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0353.5755.070.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0321.4322.56-0.02-0.02