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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:134.9
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:190
Current Record:15-9
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9106.88.09%
20-10120.026.24%
19-11134.734.01%
18-12149.522.29%
17-13164.37.95%
16-14179.61.29%
15-15192.90.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (268.0)HorzA78-100W100%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (228.8)MVCA69-62L0%0.0
11-25San Jose St. (294.3)MWCN89-74W100%0.0
11-27Loyola Chicago (228.8)MVCN74-82W100%0.0
11-28Middle Tennessee (82.3)CUSAN78-70L0%0.0
12-2Cleveland St. (264.0)HorzH76-65W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (158.7)HorzA69-71W100%0.0
12-9Detroit (206.4)HorzA75-72L0%0.0
12-12Oakland (117.4)HorzH64-76L0%0.0
12-19Bethune Cookman (310.6)MEACH102-68W100%0.0
12-21North Carolina A&T (335.1)MEACH95-62W100%0.0
12-30Northern Kentucky (260.0)HorzH90-73W100%0.0
1-6Ball St. (158.9)MACA87-69L0%0.0
1-9Miami OH (224.6)MACA76-84W100%0.0
1-12Northern Illinois (122.0)MACH66-71L0%0.0
1-15Akron (37.7)MACH78-64W100%0.0
1-19Bowling Green (212.2)MACA74-81W100%0.0
1-22Northern Illinois (122.0)MACA58-49L0%0.0
1-26Ohio (84.0)MACH79-81L0%0.0
1-30Buffalo (104.4)MACH68-73L0%0.0
2-2Western Michigan (204.1)MACH89-62W100%0.0
2-6Kent St. (111.5)MACA67-82W100%0.0
2-9Buffalo (104.4)MACA69-71W100%0.0
2-13Miami OH (224.6)MACH93-48W100%0.0
2-16Central Michigan (163.5)MACA0-055%1.5
2-20Eastern Michigan (142.9)MACA0-052%0.6
2-23Ball St. (158.9)MACH0-078%8.6
2-27Central Michigan (163.5)MACH0-077%8.1
3-1Western Michigan (204.1)MACA0-063%3.6
3-4Eastern Michigan (142.9)MACH0-075%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC26.4226.3361.8663.096.276.89
Eastern MichiganMAC0.714.1742.8644.54-0.10-0.45
Ball St.MAC2.574.1260.8759.860.560.81
Western MichiganMAC2.674.0936.3636.11-0.73-1.14
Central MichiganMAC0.584.0945.4546.78-0.05-0.26
Northern IllinoisMAC4.614.0857.8956.950.730.57
BuffaloMAC4.624.0654.5554.870.420.39
Miami OHMAC4.624.0236.3634.01-1.26-1.29
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.213.3645.4543.36-0.38-0.45
AkronMAC2.772.5682.6181.781.801.63
Kent St.MAC2.712.5665.2261.860.820.61
Bowling GreenMAC2.662.5650.0045.200.00-0.25
OhioMAC2.722.5063.6463.410.740.67
Cleveland St.Horz2.692.1326.0925.82-1.29-1.03
DetroitHorz2.472.0545.4544.20-0.22-0.24
OaklandHorz2.482.0265.3865.170.760.61
Youngstown St.Horz2.522.0230.4331.21-0.98-0.76
Green BayHorz2.471.9956.5258.920.320.35
Northern KentuckyHorz2.421.9831.8233.43-0.88-0.66
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.261.8433.3334.94-0.75-0.55
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.131.7531.8235.61-0.77-0.50
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.081.6768.1867.950.760.60
San Jose St.MWC2.081.6723.8123.44-1.09-0.89
Wright St.Horz0.580.5056.0057.240.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.530.4713.6413.35-0.39-0.34
MilwaukeeHorz0.390.4158.3360.350.060.08
ValparaisoHorz0.390.4179.1779.630.230.24
South Carolina St.MEAC0.260.2250.0051.120.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.220.174.177.54-0.21-0.15
BradleyMVC0.220.1712.0012.00-0.16-0.13
Indiana St.MVC0.220.1748.0047.35-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.260.1774.0773.100.120.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1543.4844.22-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1518.1823.04-0.08-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.180.1529.1727.08-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.180.1450.0049.050.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.130.1420.0022.69-0.08-0.08
FIUCUSA0.140.1241.6743.11-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.180.1260.0060.920.040.03
Montana St.BSky0.180.1245.8345.02-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.090.1252.0054.840.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1245.8351.18-0.010.00
HowardMEAC0.090.1234.7836.55-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.130.1252.0052.860.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1237.5038.17-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.180.1247.8343.65-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1225.0026.16-0.07-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.090.1172.0072.970.040.05
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1156.0054.070.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.1140.0039.49-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1157.6958.590.010.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1170.8373.510.040.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.1123.8124.32-0.05-0.06
IPFWSum0.130.1172.0069.300.060.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.1128.5735.02-0.04-0.03
IUPUISum0.130.1138.4638.52-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.150.0958.3356.810.020.01
Penn St.B100.040.0948.0045.86-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0952.1751.940.010.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0980.0081.510.020.06
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0960.0060.860.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0983.3382.060.030.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0962.5063.540.030.02
UTSACUSA0.130.0912.5012.74-0.10-0.06
XavierBE0.130.0988.0084.240.100.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0947.8351.11-0.010.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0945.8346.51-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.130.0972.0070.180.060.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0956.0059.610.020.02
VCUA100.130.0972.0071.480.060.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.0847.8352.95-0.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0826.3232.38-0.04-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0840.9141.22-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.130.0873.9172.090.060.04
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0842.3144.54-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.130.0830.7732.74-0.05-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.130.0824.0026.42-0.07-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0641.6737.79-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0662.5061.440.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0630.4329.85-0.04-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0660.8760.120.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0676.0073.910.000.03
MissouriSEC0.100.0636.0032.69-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0660.0059.940.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0660.0061.790.000.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0661.5455.940.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0670.8370.070.020.02
South DakotaSum0.100.0642.3143.13-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0647.6249.23-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0641.6741.64-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0672.0068.710.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0654.1755.060.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0612.5014.81-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.090.0680.0078.490.050.03
UABCUSA0.050.0680.0078.010.030.03
BYUWCC0.000.0669.2371.010.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0623.0823.73-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0621.0529.38-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0647.8355.29-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0668.1870.090.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0665.2264.480.000.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0672.7367.670.040.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0665.3865.160.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0675.0075.150.040.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0669.5767.210.040.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0640.0043.15-0.02-0.01
CreightonBE0.090.0665.3863.470.030.02
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3333.86-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0669.2369.940.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0637.5038.73-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0664.0065.380.010.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.0642.8646.51-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0673.6876.550.020.03
StetsonASun0.050.0621.7425.66-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0678.2675.550.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0613.0414.58-0.06-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.340.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0628.0031.38-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0618.1825.29-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0623.0823.86-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0676.9275.980.050.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0629.6330.87-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0635.0039.98-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.090.0687.5083.680.070.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0624.0024.18-0.05-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0676.0073.090.050.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0648.1547.52-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0672.0069.230.040.02
LongwoodBSth0.040.0620.8322.68-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.040.0660.0062.090.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0684.0081.460.060.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0666.6764.740.030.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0361.5456.600.010.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0361.9062.900.010.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0359.0956.770.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0344.0043.30-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0332.0031.18-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.4544.05-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0354.1755.730.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0337.5034.54-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0352.3851.410.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0373.9172.350.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0350.0051.470.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.4331.63-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0330.4332.18-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0339.1337.90-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0328.5730.34-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0356.0055.750.010.00
AmericanPat0.040.0328.0030.05-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0323.0825.64-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0328.5728.84-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.0871.580.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0358.3358.870.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.280.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0352.0050.510.000.00
MarylandB100.040.0384.0080.600.030.02
PacificWCC0.040.0322.7324.73-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0356.0055.660.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0358.3356.260.010.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0338.4641.33-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.6250.56-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0320.0022.33-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.040.0350.0046.650.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0352.0052.460.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0329.1729.25-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0364.0064.280.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0344.0039.90-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0323.0825.88-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.040.0364.0060.000.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0348.0050.99-0.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0326.0926.99-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0340.0039.42-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0364.0062.910.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0314.2917.11-0.03-0.02
IonaMAAC0.040.0358.3358.480.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0347.8349.74-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0320.8322.46-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.040.0357.6957.310.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0358.3358.450.010.00
SMUAmer0.040.0387.5084.290.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0350.0050.520.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0326.0928.44-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0325.0024.15-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0388.0086.620.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.970.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0335.0034.88-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0342.8641.45-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0360.8757.660.010.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0380.0077.220.020.01
WashingtonP120.040.0360.0059.040.010.00