Toledo

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	75.0
Current RPI:	75
Expected SOS:	114
Current SOS:	114
Current Record:	22-11
Expected Record:	22-11
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	114
Expected OOC SOS:	119

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-11	75.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	98-87	W	100%
11-18	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	87-74	W	100%
11-22	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	72-64	L	0%
11-24	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	80-77	L	0%
11-28	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	96-58	L	0%
12-2	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	71-69	W	100%
12-6	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	86-89	W	100%
12-9	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	87-93	L	0%
12-16	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	69-77	L	0%
12-20	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	83-57	W	100%
12-23	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	62-77	W	100%
12-29	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	72-85	W	100%
1-2	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	104-94	L	0%
1-5	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	67-65	W	100%
1-9	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	H	84-61	W	100%
1-13	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	82-93	W	100%
1-16	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	57-91	W	100%
1-20	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	H	72-65	W	100%
1-23	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	81-85	W	100%
1-27	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	101-75	W	100%
1-30	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	63-75	L	0%
2-3	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	56-77	W	100%
2-6	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	82-77	W	100%
2-9	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	67-73	W	100%
2-13	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	82-74	W	100%
2-17	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	99-71	L	0%
2-20	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	A	85-79	L	0%
2-23	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	H	89-76	W	100%
2-27	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	67-97	W	100%
3-2	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	69-71	L	0%
3-8	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	N	71-69	W	100%
3-9	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	N	64-63	W	100%
3-10	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	N	76-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Toledo	MAC	26.36	26.36	67.52	67.52	9.23	9.23
Eastern Michigan	MAC	5.38	5.38	57.69	57.69	0.83	0.83
Western Michigan	MAC	3.94	3.94	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
Akron	MAC	3.92	3.92	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Buffalo	MAC	3.90	3.90	74.19	74.19	1.89	1.89
Miami OH	MAC	3.90	3.90	48.28	48.28	-0.13	-0.13
Central Michigan	MAC	3.90	3.90	57.14	57.14	0.56	0.56
Ball St.	MAC	3.85	3.85	55.17	55.17	0.40	0.40
Northern Illinois	MAC	3.85	3.85	39.29	39.29	-0.82	-0.82
Ohio	MAC	3.82	3.82	46.43	46.43	-0.27	-0.27
Kent St.	MAC	2.52	2.52	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	2.41	2.41	48.28	48.28	-0.08	-0.08
Oakland	Horz	1.95	1.95	59.38	59.38	0.37	0.37
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.83	1.83	33.33	33.33	-0.61	-0.61
Wright St.	Horz	1.75	1.75	70.97	70.97	0.73	0.73
Syracuse	ACC	1.74	1.74	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Detroit	Horz	1.70	1.70	20.69	20.69	-1.00	-1.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	34.48	34.48	-0.51	-0.51
Penn	Ivy	1.65	1.65	76.67	76.67	0.88	0.88
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.63	1.63	45.45	45.45	-0.15	-0.15
Marshall	CUSA	1.61	1.61	68.75	68.75	0.61	0.61
Cornell	Ivy	1.59	1.59	38.46	38.46	-0.37	-0.37
Kansas	B12	1.58	1.58	78.79	78.79	0.91	0.91
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.54	1.54	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Green Bay	Horz	0.31	0.31	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Milwaukee	Horz	0.31	0.31	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.26	0.26	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.21	0.21	68.97	68.97	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.17	0.17	12.50	12.50	-0.13	-0.13
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	3.33	3.33	-0.12	-0.12
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.04	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00