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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:121.8
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:297
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-626.00.01%
24-737.40.10%
23-844.80.39%
22-953.61.83%
21-1067.34.00%
20-1178.18.46%
19-1293.514.74%
18-13108.718.09%
17-14125.517.91%
16-15143.415.76%
15-16161.49.90%
14-17180.95.47%
13-18200.22.33%
12-19219.10.71%
11-20241.00.26%
10-21251.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Arizona (220.1)BSkyH71-58W100%0.0
11-18VCU (27.3)A10A87-78L0%0.0
11-21Oregon (103.7)P12A78-68L0%0.0
11-24Bucknell (258.6)PatH92-65W100%0.0
11-25Detroit (131.7)HorzH79-82L0%0.0
11-29Oakland (228.6)HorzA81-79L0%0.0
12-3Cleveland St. (149.4)HorzA54-59W100%0.0
12-6Chicago St. (338.9)WACH87-59W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas St. (279.3)SBH73-65W100%0.0
12-17Robert Morris (250.5)NECH0-087%13.4
12-20McNeese St. (237.6)SlndA0-061%3.4
12-29Duke (4.7)ACCA0-03%-23.1
1-3Northern Kentucky (269.6)ASunA0-073%7.2
1-6Central Michigan (122.3)MACH0-063%4.0
1-9Akron (153.8)MACH0-070%6.1
1-14Ohio (208.8)MACA0-057%2.0
1-17Western Michigan (121.1)MACH0-068%5.6
1-21Kent St. (122.7)MACA0-037%-3.9
1-24Bowling Green (93.2)MACH0-061%3.2
1-27Miami OH (280.4)MACH0-089%14.4
1-31Northern Illinois (265.1)MACA0-066%5.0
2-4Eastern Michigan (99.2)MACH0-061%3.3
2-7Ball St. (169.8)MACA0-043%-2.0
2-10Buffalo (45.1)MACA0-025%-8.1
2-14Kent St. (122.7)MACH0-067%5.0
2-18Akron (153.8)MACA0-040%-2.9
2-21Western Michigan (121.1)MACA0-039%-3.4
2-24Northern Illinois (265.1)MACH0-088%14.0
2-28Ball St. (169.8)MACH0-072%7.0
3-3Central Michigan (122.3)MACA0-034%-5.0
3-6Eastern Michigan (99.2)MACA0-031%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC28.0226.2854.2957.732.404.07
Western MichiganMAC0.284.0362.5055.610.070.45
Ball St.MAC0.004.0133.3347.70-0.00-0.18
Eastern MichiganMAC0.284.0083.3367.540.191.40
Central MichiganMAC0.004.0083.3364.150.001.13
Northern IllinoisMAC0.003.9850.0033.940.00-1.28
AkronMAC0.003.9160.0057.310.000.57
Kent St.MAC0.003.9171.4361.060.000.86
Bowling GreenMAC0.692.4975.0067.890.350.89
BuffaloMAC0.002.4475.0069.580.000.96
Miami OHMAC0.002.4122.2227.64-0.00-1.08
OhioMAC0.002.4150.0036.780.00-0.64
OaklandHorz5.861.8722.2229.06-3.26-0.78
DetroitHorz5.901.7842.8651.77-0.840.06
Cleveland St.Horz5.561.7842.8650.16-0.790.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.001.6725.0049.49-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC5.831.670.0012.02-5.83-1.27
VCUA105.901.6766.6770.151.970.67
OregonP126.181.6757.1456.350.880.21
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.6433.3344.15-0.00-0.19
Arkansas St.SB5.561.6125.0035.09-2.78-0.48
BucknellPat5.561.6144.4437.40-0.62-0.41
DukeACC0.001.61100.0087.190.001.20
Northern ArizonaBSky5.561.6144.4450.99-0.620.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.001.6125.0033.54-0.00-0.53
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.4050.0051.120.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2280.0069.650.000.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.2255.5653.100.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2220.0020.84-0.00-0.13
Green BayHorz0.000.2071.4377.180.000.11
NorthwesternB100.000.1866.6744.720.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1733.3334.02-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1540.0044.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1511.1130.96-0.00-0.06
IdahoBSky0.000.1437.5049.62-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1422.2227.64-0.00-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1433.3339.81-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.1477.7869.570.000.06
MichiganB100.970.1455.5642.720.11-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.350.140.0014.53-0.35-0.10
Notre DameACC0.310.1490.9171.250.250.06
MaineAE0.000.1211.1121.00-0.00-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1230.0028.28-0.00-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1254.5557.870.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.590.1171.4372.840.250.05
Michigan St.B100.280.1170.0070.960.110.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1142.8639.29-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1142.8644.96-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.350.1125.0038.94-0.17-0.02
Arizona St.P120.310.1160.0053.940.060.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1155.5656.150.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5746.92-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.1160.0037.100.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.560.090.0015.96-0.56-0.06
LamarSlnd0.560.0914.2932.21-0.40-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.090.0023.06-0.00-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0942.8652.83-0.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0975.0070.980.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0933.3332.65-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0942.8633.13-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.310.0966.6739.030.10-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0920.0020.57-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0022.93-0.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.0975.0061.240.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.350.090.0039.43-0.35-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0844.4449.79-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0833.3347.11-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0822.2242.30-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0855.5655.850.000.01
UtahP120.000.0877.7880.520.000.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.0860.0050.220.060.00
Western CarolinaSC0.590.0822.2245.74-0.33-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0875.0064.650.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.300.000.06
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
ArizonaP120.280.08100.0080.930.280.05
Western IllinoisSum0.350.0837.5031.71-0.09-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6745.880.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.900.0841.6743.24-0.15-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0875.0069.750.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.0844.4444.49-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0837.5037.71-0.07-0.02
Penn St.B100.280.0890.9154.340.230.01
Portland St.BSky0.350.0857.1447.350.05-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0816.6727.17-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.280.08100.0086.080.280.06
ArmyPat0.000.0877.7869.100.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0890.0075.840.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.650.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0037.860.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0039.09-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0019.38-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.83-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1143.47-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0657.1447.630.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.82-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0061.230.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1129.36-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2238.58-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6765.150.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0013.85-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.560.0671.4367.660.240.02
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0620.0047.17-0.17-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.23-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.41-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0064.120.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0011.08-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3334.47-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.660.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.66-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6753.260.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0050.27-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.39-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.630.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0065.07-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8638.51-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0677.7875.600.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.95-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5045.72-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0660.0047.810.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3341.99-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8644.92-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3341.10-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0049.220.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4450.93-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6776.390.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.350.0650.0048.280.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.280.0660.0062.380.060.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.900.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.790.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.560.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.350.05100.0085.390.350.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0562.5053.840.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5072.760.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0560.0065.090.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3342.09-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0522.2230.95-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0042.53-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0528.5741.09-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0557.1452.850.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0516.6733.31-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0542.8651.80-0.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0525.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3326.81-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.620.0566.6751.450.210.00
NavyPat0.000.0520.0021.16-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0525.0033.19-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0533.3359.83-0.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0575.0050.490.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0542.8643.01-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0550.0057.760.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0562.5064.900.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0525.0047.42-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0542.8655.87-0.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.470.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0510.0021.35-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0514.2933.61-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.05100.0070.570.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.86-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.20-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0533.3338.84-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5048.77-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.280.0544.4440.58-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0571.4361.160.000.01
VillanovaBE0.560.05100.0082.270.560.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5076.910.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0525.0025.93-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0550.0056.190.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0555.5631.620.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6757.080.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0320.0026.45-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0388.8975.070.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.020.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0362.5078.030.000.02
TCUB120.000.03100.0067.440.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0328.5726.77-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6742.930.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0340.0058.50-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0067.550.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.02-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.310.0372.7351.370.140.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5051.76-0.000.00
PurdueB100.560.0372.7363.400.250.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.24-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.350.0366.6772.270.120.01
Iowa St.B120.280.0388.8964.670.220.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.350.0355.5639.260.04-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.920.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0344.4449.60-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.350.0318.1827.73-0.22-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0350.0030.140.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.350.0387.5085.930.260.02
AlbanyAE0.280.0333.3348.50-0.09-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.93-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0065.960.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0061.890.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.220.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.280.0362.5064.640.070.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.540.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.008.21-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3340.42-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0325.0037.29-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0330.0028.54-0.11-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
IllinoisB100.350.0370.0066.410.140.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.130.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5732.96-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0328.5722.66-0.12-0.01
MaristMAAC0.280.0310.0018.60-0.22-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0050.98-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0325.0027.78-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.650.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.280.0344.4469.77-0.030.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0388.8984.020.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.0371.4356.890.120.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5051.38-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1454.620.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.280.030.0034.13-0.28-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
UTSACUSA0.280.0342.8635.74-0.04-0.01
XavierBE0.280.0380.0071.140.170.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.850.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0375.0065.380.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.1456.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0344.4433.13-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.72-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.22-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.200.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0362.5065.100.070.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.920.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.070.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0380.0063.530.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.0079.360.220.02
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0387.5080.890.210.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5639.850.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.670.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0054.040.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.280.0357.1445.530.04-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0375.0077.280.000.01