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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Toledo

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:189
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15182.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Toledo.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA78-100W100%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA69-62L0%0.0
11-25San Jose St. (301.0)MWCN89-74W100%0.0
11-27Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCN74-82W100%0.0
11-28Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAN78-70L0%0.0
12-2Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH76-65W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (112.0)HorzA69-71W100%0.0
12-9Detroit (204.0)HorzA75-72L0%0.0
12-12Oakland (116.0)HorzH64-76L0%0.0
12-19Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH102-68W100%0.0
12-21North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH95-62W100%0.0
12-30Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH90-73W100%0.0
1-6Ball St. (179.0)MACA87-69L0%0.0
1-9Miami OH (195.0)MACA76-84W100%0.0
1-12Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH66-71L0%0.0
1-15Akron (34.0)MACH78-64W100%0.0
1-19Bowling Green (200.0)MACA74-81W100%0.0
1-22Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA58-49L0%0.0
1-26Ohio (81.0)MACH79-81L0%0.0
1-30Buffalo (90.0)MACH68-73L0%0.0
2-2Western Michigan (202.0)MACH89-62W100%0.0
2-6Kent St. (124.0)MACA67-82W100%0.0
2-9Buffalo (90.0)MACA69-71W100%0.0
2-13Miami OH (195.0)MACH93-48W100%0.0
2-16Central Michigan (156.0)MACA77-69L0%0.0
2-20Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA91-85L0%0.0
2-23Ball St. (179.0)MACH77-67W100%0.0
2-27Central Michigan (156.0)MACH74-76L0%0.0
3-1Western Michigan (202.0)MACA70-64L0%0.0
3-4Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH75-79L0%0.0
3-7Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA69-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Toledo's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Toledo's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Toledo.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ToledoMAC26.3626.3651.7051.700.900.90
Eastern MichiganMAC5.635.6342.3142.31-0.87-0.87
Ball St.MAC4.054.0558.6258.620.700.70
Northern IllinoisMAC4.054.0555.5655.560.450.45
BuffaloMAC4.044.0458.0658.060.650.65
Western MichiganMAC4.034.0335.7135.71-1.15-1.15
Central MichiganMAC3.993.9944.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Miami OHMAC3.983.9840.0040.00-0.80-0.80
Loyola ChicagoMVC3.253.2544.8344.83-0.34-0.34
AkronMAC2.612.6178.1278.121.471.47
Bowling GreenMAC2.562.5645.1645.16-0.25-0.25
Kent St.MAC2.512.5160.0060.000.500.50
OhioMAC2.502.5063.3363.330.670.67
Cleveland St.Horz2.062.0624.1424.14-1.06-1.06
DetroitHorz2.012.0146.4346.43-0.14-0.14
OaklandHorz1.971.9764.5264.520.570.57
Youngstown St.Horz1.961.9631.0331.03-0.74-0.74
Green BayHorz1.941.9465.6265.620.600.60
Northern KentuckyHorz1.901.9025.9325.93-0.92-0.92
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.611.6170.0070.000.650.65
San Jose St.MWC1.611.6122.2222.22-0.90-0.90
Wright St.Horz0.530.5360.6160.610.110.11
MilwaukeeHorz0.430.4358.0658.060.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.430.4310.7110.71-0.34-0.34
ValparaisoHorz0.400.4080.0080.000.240.24
BradleyMVC0.210.2112.9012.90-0.15-0.15
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Chicago St.WAC0.160.163.453.45-0.15-0.15
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
MarshallCUSA0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1062.8662.860.030.03
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01