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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:287.0
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:273
Current Record:10-17
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:5-10
Expected Conf Record:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-17287.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado (99.0)P12A67-55L0%0.0
11-16Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA92-49L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBN81-75W100%0.0
11-22Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA80-76L0%0.0
11-26UCF (68.0)AmerA67-51L0%0.0
12-4Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH88-93L0%0.0
12-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH63-58W100%0.0
12-15Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH82-67W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyH89-75W100%0.0
12-22Washington (211.0)P12H72-94L0%0.0
12-28UC Davis (166.0)BWH65-72L0%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA76-80W100%0.0
1-7Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA78-71L0%0.0
1-12UMKC (184.0)WACH68-84L0%0.0
1-14Chicago St. (318.0)WACH65-50W100%0.0
1-21Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA61-59L0%0.0
1-26New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH56-71L0%0.0
1-28UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH96-84W100%0.0
2-4Utah Valley (206.0)WACH63-50W100%0.0
2-9Chicago St. (318.0)WACN65-90W100%0.0
2-11UMKC (184.0)WACA102-72L0%0.0
2-16Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH58-61L0%0.0
2-18Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH48-51L0%0.0
2-23UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA77-86W100%0.0
2-25New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA86-53L0%0.0
3-4Utah Valley (206.0)WACA61-54L0%0.0
3-9Utah Valley (206.0)WACN65-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.4826.4834.1534.15-8.40-8.40
Utah ValleyWAC6.416.4140.0040.00-1.28-1.28
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.764.7665.3865.381.471.47
New Mexico St.WAC4.734.7382.1482.143.043.04
UMKCWAC4.674.6742.8642.86-0.67-0.67
Chicago St.WAC4.634.6311.1111.11-3.60-3.60
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.604.6025.9325.93-2.21-2.21
Grand CanyonWAC4.604.6066.6766.671.531.53
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.793.7962.0762.070.920.92
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.042.0419.2319.23-1.26-1.26
ColoradoP122.032.0354.8454.840.200.20
UC DavisBW2.022.0261.2961.290.460.46
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.981.9822.5822.58-1.08-1.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.971.9720.6920.69-1.16-1.16
Southern UtahBSky1.971.9713.3313.33-1.45-1.45
Notre DameACC1.941.9472.7372.730.880.88
WashingtonP121.911.9126.6726.67-0.89-0.89
Louisiana MonroeSB1.881.8823.3323.33-1.00-1.00
UCFAmer1.851.8564.5264.520.540.54
Weber St.BSky0.370.3756.6756.670.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.300.3025.8125.81-0.15-0.15
UC RiversideBW0.290.2922.2222.22-0.16-0.16
Portland St.BSky0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.250.2531.0331.03-0.09-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2513.3313.33-0.18-0.18
ArizonaP120.250.2588.2488.240.190.19
Washington St.P120.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.240.2437.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2240.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
UtahP120.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
IdahoBSky0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
UTSACUSA0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
DenverSum0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
NorthwesternB100.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Montana St.BSky0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.160.1688.2488.240.120.12
GonzagaWCC0.160.1696.9796.970.150.15
HawaiiBW0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Texas St.SB0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
USCP120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
MemphisAmer0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Arizona St.P120.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
HoustonAmer0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.120.1277.1477.140.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
BryantNEC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
PortlandWCC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
OregonP120.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01