Seattle

Conference:	ind
Expected RPI:	288.1
Current RPI:	287
Expected SOS:	249
Current SOS:	154
Current Record:	4-13
Expected Record:	8-16
Current Conf Record:	0-0
Expected Conf Record:	2-0
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-7
Current OOC Record:	4-13
Expected OOC Record:	6-16
Expected OOC RPI:	293
Expected OOC SOS:	237

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-13	235.1	0.55%
10-14	258.3	6.91%
9-15	276.2	24.90%
8-16	289.7	36.58%
7-17	300.2	23.22%
6-18	310.9	6.85%
5-19	320.5	0.97%
4-20	327.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	A	66-65	L	0%	0.0
11-19	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	A	73-85	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	49-72	L	0%	0.0
12-4	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	A	80-70	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	62-73	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	A	87-74	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	78-53	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Virginia (39.5)	ACC	H	77-83	L	0%	0.0
12-30	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	H	74-84	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	A	77-72	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Washington (69.1)	P12	A	91-83	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	H	74-84	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	H	91-78	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	H	73-66	W	100%	0.0
1-24	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	A	78-67	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	75-69	W	100%	0.0
2-7	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	0-0		17%	-10.3
2-11	Longwood (311.5)	ind	A	0-0		72%	6.2
2-16	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	H	0-0		61%	3.2
2-20	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	H	0-0		87%	12.2
2-23	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	0-0		19%	-9.5
2-29	Longwood (311.5)	ind	H	0-0		88%	13.0
3-10	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	H	0-0		54%	1.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Seattle	ind	26.51	26.32	20.25	29.71	-15.77	-10.68
Idaho	WAC	3.27	4.63	45.00	47.99	-0.33	-0.19
Utah St.	WAC	6.15	4.53	50.00	53.14	0.00	0.28
Portland St.	BSky	3.29	4.47	40.00	43.71	-0.66	-0.56
Utah Valley	GWC	6.07	4.31	50.00	54.30	0.00	0.37
Longwood	ind	0.07	4.20	30.00	28.47	-0.03	-1.81
Arkansas St.	SB	5.88	4.17	36.36	37.49	-1.60	-1.04
San Jose St.	WAC	3.34	2.59	23.81	24.34	-1.75	-1.33
Fresno St.	WAC	0.52	2.48	39.13	43.27	-0.11	-0.33
Eastern Washington	BSky	3.23	2.46	42.86	45.67	-0.46	-0.21
Montana St.	BSky	3.35	2.46	47.37	43.43	-0.18	-0.32
UC Davis	BW	0.41	2.34	0.00	5.09	-0.41	-2.10
UC Irvine	BW	3.01	2.23	31.58	32.77	-1.11	-0.77
Pepperdine	WCC	0.20	2.20	31.82	33.64	-0.07	-0.72
San Francisco	WCC	3.01	2.20	54.55	52.06	0.27	0.09
Stanford	P12	3.01	2.19	68.18	67.20	1.09	0.75
Virginia	ACC	2.94	2.16	80.95	76.00	1.82	1.12
Washington	P12	3.01	2.12	68.18	65.38	1.09	0.65
Harvard	Ivy	2.94	2.08	90.00	87.47	2.35	1.56
Nevada	WAC	0.52	0.54	80.95	76.42	0.32	0.29
Hawaii	WAC	0.39	0.54	57.14	53.12	0.06	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.33	0.50	42.86	43.45	-0.05	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.61	0.49	70.00	73.28	0.25	0.23
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.32	0.47	69.57	68.90	0.13	0.18
Weber St.	BSky	0.54	0.45	80.00	76.84	0.33	0.24
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.41	0.42	13.64	16.14	-0.30	-0.28
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.21	0.38	30.00	33.20	-0.08	-0.13
Idaho St.	BSky	0.34	0.37	33.33	33.88	-0.11	-0.12
Pacific	BW	0.40	0.33	35.00	37.47	-0.12	-0.08
Oregon	P12	0.33	0.32	69.57	64.53	0.13	0.09
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.31	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.21	0.30	30.00	31.54	-0.08	-0.11
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.21	0.30	65.00	66.70	0.06	0.10
Brigham Young	WCC	0.19	0.30	75.00	76.00	0.09	0.16
UCLA	P12	0.27	0.29	54.55	56.79	0.02	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.27	0.29	63.64	63.16	0.07	0.08
Denver	SB	0.44	0.28	70.83	72.23	0.18	0.13
Wyoming	MWC	0.41	0.27	76.19	70.73	0.22	0.11
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.27	81.82	81.49	0.08	0.17
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.28	0.26	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.14	0.26	21.05	22.46	-0.08	-0.14
Cal Poly	BW	0.21	0.26	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.26	0.25	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.14	0.25	55.56	58.01	0.02	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.13	0.23	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.21	0.22	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.22	33.33	33.82	-0.07	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.22	71.43	73.35	0.06	0.10
Arizona St.	P12	0.20	0.22	30.43	31.43	-0.08	-0.08
Utah	P12	0.27	0.21	18.18	15.01	-0.17	-0.15
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.20	0.19	25.00	28.52	-0.10	-0.08
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.19	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.13
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.19	90.91	87.74	0.11	0.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.20	0.19	59.09	57.76	0.04	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.19	28.57	26.30	-0.06	-0.09
Portland	WCC	0.19	0.19	21.74	21.70	-0.11	-0.11
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.20	0.19	14.29	17.17	-0.15	-0.12
California	P12	0.27	0.18	75.00	74.61	0.13	0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.19	0.18	54.17	54.75	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.15	19.05	24.61	-0.08	-0.08
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.15	27.27	35.02	-0.06	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.15	36.36	38.48	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.13	0.15	34.78	35.20	-0.04	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.15	4.76	9.95	-0.12	-0.12
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.15	27.27	23.80	-0.03	-0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.14	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.12	0.14	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.26	0.14	36.36	39.72	-0.07	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.14	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.13	0.14	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.25	0.14	71.43	69.05	0.11	0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.25	0.14	8.70	8.99	-0.20	-0.11
North Texas	SB	0.25	0.14	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.13	0.14	25.00	25.13	-0.06	-0.07
Georgia St.	CAA	0.20	0.11	66.67	69.69	0.07	0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.07	0.11	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.14	0.11	20.00	19.96	-0.08	-0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.11	35.00	39.38	-0.04	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.19	0.11	100.00	94.55	0.19	0.10
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.11	72.73	71.71	0.06	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.10	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.19	0.10	27.78	29.87	-0.08	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.19	0.10	77.27	77.67	0.10	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.08	69.57	65.15	0.05	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.08	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.13	0.08	15.00	15.73	-0.09	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.08	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.13	0.08	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.08	5.26	7.30	-0.12	-0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.08	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Army	Pat	0.00	0.08	40.91	41.72	-0.00	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.00	0.08	17.39	19.81	-0.00	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.08	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.00	0.08	8.70	12.13	-0.00	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.00	0.08	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.00	0.08	9.52	13.19	-0.00	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.08	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.08	35.00	40.78	-0.00	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.00	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.00	0.08	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.07	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.13	0.07	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.07	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.00	0.07	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.00	0.07	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	72.22	63.19	0.03	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.07	30.43	26.44	-0.05	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.07	33.33	35.97	-0.04	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.07	86.36	83.09	0.10	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.07	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.07	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.07	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.07	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.07	83.33	84.76	0.08	0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.07	78.26	72.34	0.07	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.07	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.00	0.07	86.96	83.16	0.00	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.07	70.83	64.42	0.05	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.07	81.82	77.20	0.08	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.00	0.07	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.07	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.07	21.74	24.58	-0.07	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.07	4.35	9.66	-0.11	-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.12	0.07	18.18	21.13	-0.08	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.12	0.07	76.19	75.94	0.06	0.04
Troy	SB	0.00	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.00	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.07	34.78	34.48	-0.00	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.07	82.61	80.42	0.08	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.04	81.82	81.03	0.05	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.04	85.71	82.18	0.05	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.04	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.04	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.07	0.04	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.00	0.04	8.33	10.86	-0.00	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.04	71.43	66.60	0.03	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.04	68.18	63.99	0.03	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.04	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.04	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.04	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.07	0.04	28.00	28.91	-0.03	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.04	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.00	0.04	85.71	78.05	0.00	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.04	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.04	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.00	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.00	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.04	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.03	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.06	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.06	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.00	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01