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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:266.3
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:180
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-8148.00.41%
17-9163.60.83%
16-10182.32.67%
15-11204.55.84%
14-12224.410.70%
13-13244.815.97%
12-14264.917.43%
11-15282.817.11%
10-16299.013.92%
9-17312.88.52%
8-18323.24.08%
7-19332.81.73%
6-20338.90.63%
5-21342.80.14%
4-22346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas St. (209.9)SBH53-62L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska Omaha (225.8)SumH98-74W100%0.0
11-21Washington (106.0)P12H48-63L0%0.0
11-23Montana (177.9)BSkyH62-66L0%0.0
11-29Cal St. Northridge (201.0)BWH0-056%1.7
12-4UC Santa Barbara (124.4)BWA0-016%-11.8
12-6Eastern Washington (69.0)BSkyH0-028%-6.9
12-13San Jose St. (305.9)MWCA0-049%-0.2
12-19Minnesota (74.0)B10A0-07%-17.7
12-21Sacramento St. (223.4)BSkyH0-064%4.3
12-30UC Davis (265.2)BWH0-066%5.1
1-3Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWA0-044%-1.9
1-10Utah Valley (210.8)WACA0-038%-3.8
1-15Texas Pan American (281.9)WACH0-078%9.4
1-17New Mexico St. (93.7)WACH0-030%-6.3
1-22Chicago St. (315.8)WACA0-062%3.7
1-24UMKC (232.1)WACA0-037%-4.0
1-31Cal St. Bakersfield (291.1)WACA0-047%-0.8
2-5Grand Canyon (272.6)WACH0-065%4.7
2-7Utah Valley (210.8)WACH0-061%3.4
2-12New Mexico St. (93.7)WACA0-013%-13.4
2-14Texas Pan American (281.9)WACA0-057%2.2
2-18UMKC (232.1)WACH0-060%3.1
2-21Chicago St. (315.8)WACH0-082%10.9
2-28Cal St. Bakersfield (291.1)WACH0-070%6.3
3-7Grand Canyon (272.6)WACA0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC32.8126.3812.5041.69-24.61-4.38
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.8066.6750.600.000.06
UMKCWAC0.004.7125.0046.22-0.00-0.36
Chicago St.WAC0.004.700.0019.35-0.00-2.88
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.004.70100.0029.970.00-1.88
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.6740.0066.74-0.001.56
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.6740.0047.38-0.00-0.25
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.6720.0037.86-0.00-1.13
UC DavisBW0.002.24100.0042.600.00-0.33
Cal St. FullertonBW0.002.2025.0032.49-0.00-0.77
Sacramento St.BSky0.002.2050.0046.450.00-0.16
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.002.1775.0074.060.001.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.002.1340.0044.85-0.00-0.22
Nebraska OmahaSum12.502.1366.6751.714.170.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.002.120.0056.66-0.000.28
MontanaBSky12.502.030.0049.45-12.50-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.002.030.0018.05-0.00-1.29
WashingtonP1212.501.99100.0054.3212.500.17
MinnesotaB100.001.9266.6758.290.000.32
Texas St.SB12.501.9250.0044.010.00-0.23
Idaho St.BSky0.000.450.0028.60-0.00-0.19
UC RiversideBW0.000.450.0029.35-0.00-0.18
UC IrvineBW0.000.3833.3367.26-0.000.13
Montana St.BSky0.000.350.0021.79-0.00-0.19
HawaiiBW0.000.3466.6754.720.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.320.0044.87-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.310.0051.20-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.280.0038.43-0.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.000.28100.0048.940.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.2850.0034.200.00-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2825.0052.70-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.2760.0056.280.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.2575.0061.090.000.06
IdahoBSky0.000.2533.3348.77-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.2525.0054.27-0.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.210.0020.18-0.00-0.13
CaliforniaP120.000.2175.0069.250.000.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2033.3353.25-0.000.01
UTSACUSA2.080.1833.3328.79-0.69-0.08
Washington St.P120.000.1833.3329.16-0.00-0.07
Colorado St.MWC2.080.18100.0065.602.080.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1766.6751.550.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.17100.0087.570.000.13
Air ForceMWC0.000.1433.3345.79-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.140.0025.33-0.00-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.1450.0067.050.000.05
NevadaMWC0.000.1425.0043.34-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1420.0050.95-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1460.0051.970.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.14100.0067.780.000.05
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0060.560.000.03
UtahP120.000.1466.6772.710.000.06
OregonP120.000.1460.0063.180.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0075.900.000.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1325.0036.61-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.1380.0058.080.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0021.34-0.00-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.13100.0053.250.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.13100.0070.870.000.06
Boise St.MWC2.080.1180.0063.111.250.03
LamarSlnd2.080.1125.0037.60-1.04-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1166.6744.530.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1150.0065.510.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0046.130.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1060.0054.250.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1066.6754.750.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0031.74-0.00-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1025.0037.50-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1025.0050.46-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1025.0040.73-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1060.0057.210.000.01
NebraskaB101.560.1075.0053.250.780.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0038.95-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1066.6754.040.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1040.0040.15-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0025.530.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0034.32-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0079.080.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0050.520.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0725.0051.72-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0064.410.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0038.65-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.070.0042.64-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0050.770.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0050.900.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0740.0066.55-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0066.91-0.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0081.020.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0055.470.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.82-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0766.6760.350.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0064.740.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0775.0047.410.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0733.3340.34-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0766.6763.740.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0067.43-0.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0733.3323.56-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.76-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0062.250.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0775.0059.500.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0018.08-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0766.6766.590.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0036.220.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0766.6769.740.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0056.990.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6761.780.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0031.23-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0027.32-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0780.0071.450.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0720.0029.38-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0032.89-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0740.0047.10-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0780.0070.420.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0740.0060.63-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0025.51-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.07100.0065.220.000.02
USCP120.000.0750.0028.900.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.07100.0070.500.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0720.0030.80-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0775.0064.660.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0766.6755.870.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.790.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0766.6774.280.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0720.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0775.0044.920.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0760.0064.290.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0775.0063.470.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0089.550.000.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0030.040.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0740.0036.72-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0783.3348.030.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0780.0067.040.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.500.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.070.0032.66-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0766.6744.670.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0083.950.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0084.260.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0740.0038.29-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.07100.0079.500.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3349.98-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0466.6760.800.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.040.0040.78-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0475.0050.700.000.00
TexasB120.000.04100.0080.120.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0433.3358.10-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0450.0053.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.04100.0085.190.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd1.560.030.0023.12-1.56-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE1.560.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.07-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6756.850.000.00
PacificWCC2.080.0333.3330.38-0.69-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC2.080.030.0035.72-2.08-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0066.080.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6738.430.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0072.100.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.400.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.680.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0047.180.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.780.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0039.00-0.00-0.01