Seattle

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	303.0
Current RPI:	303
Expected SOS:	207
Current SOS:	207
Current Record:	7-22
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	3-16
Expected Conf Record:	3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-7
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	300
Expected OOC SOS:	298

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	303.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	H	87-72	W	100%
11-17	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	83-43	L	0%
11-28	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	68-57	L	0%
12-2	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	64-87	L	0%
12-10	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	A	69-75	W	100%
12-13	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	74-87	L	0%
12-17	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	82-91	L	0%
12-19	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	75-48	W	100%
12-22	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	72-49	W	100%
12-29	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	64-71	L	0%
1-3	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	75-66	L	0%
1-5	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	76-71	L	0%
1-10	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	82-83	L	0%
1-12	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	51-64	L	0%
1-17	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	44-61	W	100%
1-19	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	78-71	L	0%
1-24	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	75-78	L	0%
1-26	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	83-86	L	0%
1-31	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	56-48	W	100%
2-2	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	46-68	L	0%
2-7	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	72-55	L	0%
2-9	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	60-57	L	0%
2-14	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	58-64	L	0%
2-16	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	63-65	L	0%
2-28	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	67-65	L	0%
3-2	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	37-53	W	100%
3-6	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	74-75	L	0%
3-9	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	76-72	L	0%
3-12	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	N	68-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Seattle	WAC	26.43	26.43	22.15	22.15	-14.72	-14.72
Texas St.	WAC	6.19	6.19	26.67	26.67	-2.89	-2.89
Texas Arlington	WAC	4.63	4.63	60.00	60.00	0.93	0.93
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.60	4.60	67.74	67.74	1.63	1.63
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.58	4.58	30.00	30.00	-1.83	-1.83
Idaho	WAC	4.50	4.50	33.33	33.33	-1.50	-1.50
Denver	WAC	4.50	4.50	67.86	67.86	1.61	1.61
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.45	4.45	79.31	79.31	2.61	2.61
Utah St.	WAC	4.45	4.45	64.29	64.29	1.27	1.27
San Jose St.	WAC	4.42	4.42	26.92	26.92	-2.04	-2.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.89	1.89	36.00	36.00	-0.53	-0.53
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.85	1.85	33.33	33.33	-0.62	-0.62
Montana St.	BSky	1.84	1.84	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Boise St.	MWC	1.84	1.84	64.29	64.29	0.52	0.52
Washington	P12	1.81	1.81	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Stanford	P12	1.81	1.81	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.75	1.75	14.29	14.29	-1.25	-1.25
Campbell	BSth	1.72	1.72	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Virginia	ACC	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Weber St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	80.00	80.00	0.14	0.14
Idaho St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	17.24	17.24	-0.15	-0.15
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.22	0.22	85.29	85.29	0.16	0.16
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.22	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Montana	BSky	0.18	0.18	79.31	79.31	0.10	0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
California	P12	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.17	17.86	17.86	-0.11	-0.11
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.17	0.17	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.15	0.15	18.18	18.18	-0.10	-0.10
Utah Valley	GWC	0.15	0.15	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
North Dakota	BSky	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02