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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:280.0
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:334
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15280.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas St. (236.0)SBH53-62L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH98-74W100%0.0
11-21Washington (126.0)P12H48-63L0%0.0
11-23Montana (144.0)BSkyH62-66L0%0.0
11-29Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH70-58W100%0.0
12-4UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA87-46L0%0.0
12-6Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH75-87L0%0.0
12-13San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA38-54W100%0.0
12-19Minnesota (98.0)B10A92-57L0%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyH66-47W100%0.0
12-30UC Davis (75.0)BWH76-67W100%0.0
1-3Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA67-55L0%0.0
1-10Utah Valley (308.0)WACA70-52L0%0.0
1-15Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH70-47W100%0.0
1-17New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH58-52W100%0.0
1-22Chicago St. (333.0)WACA67-75W100%0.0
1-24UMKC (295.0)WACA75-55L0%0.0
1-31Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACA71-61L0%0.0
2-5Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH64-66L0%0.0
2-7Utah Valley (308.0)WACH53-33W100%0.0
2-12New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA73-47L0%0.0
2-14Texas Pan American (334.0)WACA68-57L0%0.0
2-18UMKC (295.0)WACH74-56W100%0.0
2-21Chicago St. (333.0)WACH57-31W100%0.0
2-28Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH53-43W100%0.0
3-7Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA83-70L0%0.0
3-12Chicago St. (333.0)WACN49-45W100%0.0
3-13UMKC (295.0)WACN69-63W100%0.0
3-14New Mexico St. (103.0)WACN80-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.6026.6044.6344.63-2.86-2.86
UMKCWAC6.096.0939.2939.29-1.31-1.31
New Mexico St.WAC6.066.0667.8667.862.162.16
Chicago St.WAC6.026.0219.2319.23-3.70-3.70
Utah ValleyWAC4.494.4930.7730.77-1.73-1.73
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.474.4735.7135.71-1.28-1.28
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.434.4323.0823.08-2.39-2.39
Grand CanyonWAC4.324.3248.1548.15-0.16-0.16
UC DavisBW2.022.0282.1482.141.301.30
Sacramento St.BSky1.991.9964.2964.290.570.57
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.991.9973.3373.330.930.93
Nebraska OmahaSum1.961.9640.7440.74-0.36-0.36
Cal St. FullertonBW1.961.9621.4321.43-1.12-1.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.931.9323.3323.33-1.03-1.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.901.9055.1755.170.200.20
MontanaBSky1.841.8458.6258.620.320.32
San Jose St.MWC1.811.810.000.00-1.81-1.81
WashingtonP121.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB101.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
Texas St.SB1.721.7237.0437.04-0.45-0.45
Idaho St.BSky0.380.3817.8617.86-0.25-0.25
UC RiversideBW0.380.3841.3841.38-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.370.3761.2961.290.080.08
HawaiiBW0.320.3260.6160.610.070.07
Montana St.BSky0.290.2920.6920.69-0.17-0.17
Northern ColoradoBSky0.290.2946.4346.43-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.290.2948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.260.2621.4321.43-0.15-0.15
Cal PolyBW0.260.2640.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.260.2645.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.260.2648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2081.2581.250.130.13
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
UTSACUSA0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
WyomingMWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
Washington St.P120.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.146.906.90-0.12-0.12
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1458.3358.330.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
UtahP120.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Arizona St.P120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0942.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
OaklandHorz0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01