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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:287.0
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:307
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:327
Expected OOC SOS:304



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16287.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH56-58L0%0.0
11-15Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH65-77L0%0.0
11-18Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyA76-70L0%0.0
11-23Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH58-52W100%0.0
12-1California (16.0)P12A66-52L0%0.0
12-4Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH61-70L0%0.0
12-6Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH84-72W100%0.0
12-13UAB (88.0)CUSAA79-73L0%0.0
12-20San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH67-64W100%0.0
12-22Washington (83.0)P12A79-68L0%0.0
12-28UC Davis (281.0)BWH80-75W100%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH50-88L0%0.0
1-7UMKC (286.0)WACA84-69L0%0.0
1-9Chicago St. (348.0)WACA50-66W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH52-79L0%0.0
1-21New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH60-68L0%0.0
1-23UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH70-59W100%0.0
1-28Utah Valley (272.0)WACA62-73W100%0.0
1-30Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA57-59W100%0.0
2-4Chicago St. (348.0)WACH59-56W100%0.0
2-6UMKC (286.0)WACH65-55W100%0.0
2-12Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH60-71L0%0.0
2-18UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA67-57L0%0.0
2-20New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA70-57L0%0.0
2-27Utah Valley (272.0)WACH72-69W100%0.0
3-5Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA93-71L0%0.0
3-10UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACN75-52W100%0.0
3-11Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACN72-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.6126.6139.0639.06-5.82-5.82
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC6.306.3069.2369.232.422.42
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC6.166.1616.6716.67-4.11-4.11
New Mexico St.WAC4.644.6465.5265.521.441.44
UMKCWAC4.574.5730.7730.77-1.76-1.76
Chicago St.WAC4.554.553.703.70-4.21-4.21
Utah ValleyWAC4.544.5436.0036.00-1.27-1.27
Grand CanyonWAC4.484.4881.4881.482.822.82
Eastern WashingtonBSky3.633.6350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW2.072.0733.3333.33-0.69-0.69
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.002.0055.1755.170.210.21
Sacramento St.BSky1.971.9739.2939.29-0.42-0.42
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.961.9623.5323.53-1.04-1.04
Cal St. FullertonBW1.941.9425.9325.93-0.93-0.93
WashingtonP121.871.8754.8454.840.180.18
CaliforniaP121.841.8468.7568.750.690.69
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.841.8421.8821.88-1.03-1.03
San Jose St.MWC1.791.7922.2222.22-0.99-0.99
UABCUSA1.791.7980.0080.001.071.07
IdahoBSky0.490.4961.2961.290.110.11
Portland St.BSky0.470.4737.9337.93-0.11-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.300.3010.7110.71-0.24-0.24
HawaiiBW0.300.3083.3383.330.200.20
Idaho St.BSky0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.280.2843.3343.33-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.280.2838.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.2883.8783.870.190.19
Arizona St.P120.260.2646.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.250.2514.2914.29-0.18-0.18
South DakotaSum0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.240.2471.8871.880.110.11
UTEPCUSA0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
WyomingMWC0.240.2440.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.230.2348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
Weber St.BSky0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
Cal PolyBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
New MexicoMWC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
HoustonAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
ArizonaP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
OregonP120.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
Texas St.SB0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
DavidsonA100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
TexasB120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01