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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:267.0
Current RPI:267
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:273
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17267.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Washington (104.0)P12A88-78L0%0.0
11-13Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH75-71W100%0.0
11-19Boise St. (82.0)MWCA86-68L0%0.0
11-25UC Riverside (319.0)BWH69-68W100%0.0
11-29Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyA82-75L0%0.0
12-2UC Davis (326.0)BWH77-53W100%0.0
12-5Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA53-58W100%0.0
12-7Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA65-74W100%0.0
12-19Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACN70-67W100%0.0
12-22Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA76-69L0%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH70-86L0%0.0
1-4UMKC (248.0)WACH84-95L0%0.0
1-9New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA96-87L0%0.0
1-11Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA46-64W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH57-61L0%0.0
1-19Utah Valley (144.0)WACH51-52L0%0.0
1-25Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA71-63L0%0.0
2-1Idaho (238.0)WACA67-68W100%0.0
2-6Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH83-62W100%0.0
2-8New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH77-92L0%0.0
2-13Utah Valley (144.0)WACA57-71W100%0.0
2-15Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA83-65L0%0.0
2-20Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH73-74L0%0.0
2-27Chicago St. (259.0)WACH77-84L0%0.0
3-1Idaho (238.0)WACH76-68W100%0.0
3-6UMKC (248.0)WACN82-73L0%0.0
3-8Chicago St. (259.0)WACA67-53L0%0.0
3-13New Mexico St. (72.0)WACN70-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.4626.4639.8639.86-5.37-5.37
New Mexico St.WAC6.316.3170.9770.972.652.65
IdahoWAC4.784.7848.3948.39-0.15-0.15
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.634.6334.4834.48-1.44-1.44
Utah ValleyWAC4.564.5662.9662.961.181.18
UMKCWAC4.534.5329.6329.63-1.85-1.85
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.524.5227.5927.59-2.02-2.02
Chicago St.WAC4.514.5132.1432.14-1.61-1.61
Grand CanyonWAC4.434.4341.6741.67-0.74-0.74
Cal St. FullertonBW3.813.8137.9337.93-0.92-0.92
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.202.2046.8846.88-0.14-0.14
UC DavisBW2.132.1325.0025.00-1.07-1.07
UC RiversideBW2.082.0828.5728.57-0.89-0.89
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.082.0866.6766.670.690.69
Nebraska OmahaSum1.901.9046.1546.15-0.15-0.15
Boise St.MWC1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
WashingtonP121.821.8251.6151.610.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.811.8142.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Norfolk St.MEAC1.791.7955.1755.170.180.18
HawaiiBW0.550.5562.0762.070.130.13
UC IrvineBW0.480.4865.6265.620.150.15
Long Beach St.BW0.470.4743.3343.33-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.420.4236.6736.67-0.11-0.11
New MexicoMWC0.310.3181.8281.820.200.20
Idaho St.BSky0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
NevadaMWC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.200.2041.3841.38-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.200.2053.5753.570.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
UTSACUSA0.170.1722.2222.22-0.10-0.10
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
USCP120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
South DakotaSum0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.070.07
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
TulsaCUSA0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.120.123.573.57-0.11-0.11
Air ForceMWC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02