Seattle

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	165.0
Current RPI:	165
Expected SOS:	202
Current SOS:	202
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	8-6
Expected OOC Record:	8-6
Expected OOC RPI:	187
Expected OOC SOS:	250

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	165.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	62-46	L	0%
11-15	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	75-59	L	0%
11-18	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	N	71-102	W	100%
11-19	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	90-77	L	0%
11-24	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	89-84	L	0%
11-27	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	73-67	W	100%
11-30	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	66-54	W	100%
12-3	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	84-65	W	100%
12-9	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	97-73	L	0%
12-16	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	89-76	W	100%
12-19	California (216.0)	P12	H	59-81	L	0%
12-23	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	95-89	W	100%
12-28	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	93-63	W	100%
12-30	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	95-71	W	100%
1-6	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	57-73	L	0%
1-11	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	67-64	W	100%
1-13	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	77-75	W	100%
1-18	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	75-62	L	0%
1-20	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	76-79	W	100%
1-26	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	59-55	W	100%
2-3	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	55-54	W	100%
2-8	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	74-67	L	0%
2-10	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	A	81-91	W	100%
2-15	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	85-68	W	100%
2-17	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	73-63	W	100%
2-22	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	76-64	L	0%
2-24	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	64-57	L	0%
3-3	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	73-47	L	0%
3-8	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	N	77-60	W	100%
3-9	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	N	84-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Seattle	WAC	26.45	26.45	56.25	56.25	3.31	3.31
New Mexico St.	WAC	5.87	5.87	85.19	85.19	4.13	4.13
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	5.79	5.79	48.15	48.15	-0.21	-0.21
Grand Canyon	WAC	4.39	4.39	63.33	63.33	1.17	1.17
Utah Valley	WAC	4.29	4.29	66.67	66.67	1.43	1.43
Chicago St.	WAC	4.21	4.21	3.57	3.57	-3.91	-3.91
UMKC	WAC	4.17	4.17	25.93	25.93	-2.01	-2.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	4.17	4.17	32.00	32.00	-1.50	-1.50
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.86	1.86	84.38	84.38	1.28	1.28
Washington	P12	1.86	1.86	61.29	61.29	0.42	0.42
Washington St.	P12	1.83	1.83	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
California	P12	1.83	1.83	23.33	23.33	-0.97	-0.97
UC Riverside	BW	1.80	1.80	25.00	25.00	-0.90	-0.90
Grambling St.	SWAC	1.80	1.80	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Idaho St.	BSky	1.78	1.78	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.75	1.75	62.96	62.96	0.45	0.45
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.72	1.72	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Portland	WCC	1.72	1.72	25.00	25.00	-0.86	-0.86
Saint Louis	A10	1.69	1.69	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	1.69	1.69	71.88	71.88	0.74	0.74
Detroit	Horz	1.69	1.69	20.69	20.69	-0.99	-0.99
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.69	1.69	29.63	29.63	-0.69	-0.69
Idaho	BSky	0.26	0.26	68.97	68.97	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.25	0.25	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
BYU	WCC	0.22	0.22	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.20	0.20	30.77	30.77	-0.08	-0.08
UCLA	P12	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
USC	P12	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.19	16.13	16.13	-0.13	-0.13
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.13	-0.13
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.17	0.17	14.29	14.29	-0.12	-0.12
North Dakota	BSky	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.16	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.09	0.09	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01