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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:199.6
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:236
Current SOS:261
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:280



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8102.00.03%
19-9122.90.47%
18-10146.83.54%
17-11167.012.94%
16-12186.926.38%
15-13205.629.33%
14-14222.918.75%
13-15239.97.10%
12-16256.31.37%
11-17271.90.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Saint Louis (176.5)A10A62-46L0%0.0
11-15Washington St. (171.2)P12A75-59L0%0.0
11-18Detroit (297.3)HorzN71-102W100%0.0
11-19Belmont (82.3)OVCA90-77L0%0.0
11-24Washington (76.6)P12A89-84L0%0.0
11-27Idaho St. (263.4)BSkyH73-67W100%0.0
11-30Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH66-54W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Washington (191.9)BSkyH84-65W100%0.0
12-9Saint Mary's (34.6)WCCA97-73L0%0.0
12-16Portland (257.4)WCCH89-76W100%0.0
12-19California (190.3)P12H59-81L0%0.0
12-23Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH95-89W100%0.0
12-28Grambling St. (286.4)SWACH93-63W100%0.0
12-30UC Riverside (301.7)BWH95-71W100%0.0
1-6Grand Canyon (147.1)WACH57-73L0%0.0
1-11Chicago St. (336.7)WACH67-64W100%0.0
1-13UMKC (262.9)WACH77-75W100%0.0
1-18New Mexico St. (43.1)WACA75-62L0%0.0
1-20UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACA76-79W100%0.0
1-26Cal St. Bakersfield (216.8)WACH0-069%5.4
2-3Utah Valley (84.6)WACH0-041%-2.7
2-8UMKC (262.9)WACA0-060%2.7
2-10Chicago St. (336.7)WACA0-087%12.5
2-15UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACH0-068%5.3
2-17New Mexico St. (43.1)WACH0-021%-9.1
2-22Grand Canyon (147.1)WACA0-014%-11.8
2-24Cal St. Bakersfield (216.8)WACA0-046%-1.0
3-3Utah Valley (84.6)WACA0-021%-9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.3426.3354.9352.872.601.51
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.924.4147.3747.18-0.15-0.25
Grand CanyonWAC3.054.4168.4269.631.121.73
Utah ValleyWAC0.434.4066.6765.750.141.39
New Mexico St.WAC2.834.3782.3583.811.832.95
Chicago St.WAC2.774.350.002.82-2.77-4.10
UMKCWAC2.764.3422.2225.10-1.54-2.16
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.274.3329.4132.43-0.11-1.52
WashingtonP122.982.0068.4260.151.100.41
Saint Mary'sWCC2.841.9890.0088.592.271.52
Washington St.P122.911.9644.4439.42-0.32-0.42
CaliforniaP122.911.9633.3328.74-0.97-0.83
UC RiversideBW2.771.9418.7524.74-1.73-0.98
Idaho St.BSky2.701.9146.6742.50-0.18-0.29
Grambling St.SWAC2.761.9138.8945.63-0.61-0.17
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.701.8541.1847.70-0.48-0.09
Nicholls St.Slnd2.701.8553.3353.360.180.12
PortlandWCC2.631.8429.4128.29-1.08-0.80
Saint LouisA102.701.8244.4445.09-0.30-0.18
DetroitHorz2.701.8222.2226.89-1.50-0.84
BelmontOVC2.701.8170.0073.811.080.86
Kennesaw St.ASun2.701.8117.6525.87-1.75-0.88
IdahoBSky0.220.2964.7166.850.070.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.2956.2556.830.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.350.2563.1657.540.090.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.2366.6765.370.050.07
Portland St.BSky0.380.2258.8263.210.070.06
BYUWCC0.220.2280.9576.240.130.12
UC IrvineBW0.200.2230.0039.93-0.08-0.04
UCLAP120.270.2265.0062.050.080.05
StanfordP120.280.2155.0050.370.030.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.2011.1115.29-0.12-0.14
North DakotaBSky0.160.1929.4134.76-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.380.1917.6519.30-0.25-0.12
UC DavisBW0.210.1958.8262.440.040.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.290.1916.6724.45-0.19-0.10
ArizonaP120.070.1980.0078.940.040.11
USCP120.280.1871.4368.280.120.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.340.1850.0052.460.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.1827.7829.10-0.12-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.200.1810.5318.34-0.16-0.12
UtahP120.210.1863.1659.710.050.03
Oregon St.P120.070.1857.8950.840.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.1656.2557.400.010.02
UTEPCUSA0.220.1633.3334.10-0.07-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.167.6923.28-0.18-0.08
PacificWCC0.280.1545.0044.47-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1550.0048.730.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.150.1578.9576.130.090.08
GonzagaWCC0.200.1580.9583.260.120.10
ColoradoP120.140.1560.0053.720.030.01
OregonP120.000.1565.0063.850.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.1362.5058.690.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.150.1345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.1368.7563.990.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.1311.1118.00-0.05-0.08
IllinoisB100.140.1347.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1358.8257.140.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1337.5033.78-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.210.135.8819.35-0.19-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1321.0539.48-0.08-0.03
MontanaBSky0.140.1270.5973.150.060.06
South DakotaSum0.210.1273.6872.380.100.06
LipscombASun0.200.1252.9459.340.010.02
OaklandHorz0.140.1261.9065.160.030.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.1242.1143.51-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.200.1252.9452.230.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1233.3332.94-0.05-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.120.0010.67-0.07-0.10
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1236.8432.76-0.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.1050.0054.890.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1043.7549.130.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.107.6920.09-0.13-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1045.0049.29-0.02-0.00
DavidsonA100.140.1058.8261.450.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.1052.9455.030.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0927.7827.10-0.07-0.04
UMBCAE0.150.0955.5655.540.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.0921.0523.51-0.09-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.220.0911.7612.81-0.17-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.070.0923.5328.21-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.140.0973.6862.720.070.02
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0978.9577.380.080.05
Boise St.MWC0.140.0978.9576.990.080.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.0926.3231.50-0.06-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.140.0952.6343.110.01-0.01
IowaB100.140.0947.6244.02-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.140.0927.7829.83-0.06-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.140.0944.4446.65-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0935.2940.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0957.8953.190.020.01
Green BayHorz0.130.0925.0027.94-0.07-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.0945.0047.07-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.200.0970.5975.950.080.05
Virginia TechACC0.200.0968.4257.740.080.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0921.0544.26-0.08-0.01
VCUA100.140.0960.0059.700.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0931.5832.72-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0947.3750.94-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.200.0970.0060.470.080.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0768.4264.200.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0747.3743.020.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0766.6763.420.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0745.0041.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0789.4785.210.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0757.8966.260.010.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0733.3333.77-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0773.6867.970.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0728.5731.26-0.04-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0777.7870.480.040.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0737.5045.240.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0738.8942.610.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0731.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.077.1414.82-0.07-0.05
StetsonASun0.070.0733.3336.93-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0741.1839.650.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0640.0043.35-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.340.020.01
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.720.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.980.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0670.5969.630.030.03
ButlerBE0.140.0666.6763.070.050.02
MichiganB100.150.0676.1970.740.080.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.0668.4270.810.050.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.880.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.34-0.04-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.63-0.05-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.73-0.04-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.1146.000.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.25-0.04-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.16-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.790.040.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.550.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.63-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.82-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0643.7554.11-0.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0641.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0644.4450.08-0.010.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.210.020.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0655.0050.330.010.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0663.1661.020.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.090.020.01
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.370.050.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0611.1117.68-0.05-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.570.030.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.960.020.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0657.8950.210.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0660.0062.030.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.250.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0610.5316.75-0.05-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0616.6724.26-0.05-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0612.5025.45-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0630.0036.500.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.36-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.140.0658.8262.820.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0627.7840.97-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6768.730.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0670.0068.220.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0623.5328.690.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0352.9452.650.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.640.030.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.490.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.370.050.02
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.850.050.02
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.890.020.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.03
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.31-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.02
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.910.040.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.150.040.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.520.020.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.700.020.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.260.030.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.480.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.050.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.470.010.00
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.690.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0366.6755.940.020.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.69-0.02-0.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0372.2274.710.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.01-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.01
TCUB120.060.0373.6865.600.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0352.6358.590.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01