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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:270.3
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:329
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-11208.50.04%
14-12227.21.94%
13-13246.515.55%
12-14265.841.05%
11-15282.933.26%
10-16297.98.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (319.7)SWACH56-58L0%0.0
11-15Sacramento St. (248.1)BSkyH65-77L0%0.0
11-18Eastern Washington (208.4)BSkyA76-70L0%0.0
11-23Eastern Washington (208.4)BSkyH58-52W100%0.0
12-1California (41.7)P12A66-52L0%0.0
12-4Cal St. Fullerton (284.8)BWH61-70L0%0.0
12-6Mississippi Valley St. (327.7)SWACH84-72W100%0.0
12-13UAB (87.4)CUSAA79-73L0%0.0
12-20San Jose St. (295.5)MWCH67-64W100%0.0
12-22Washington (62.3)P12A79-68L0%0.0
12-28UC Davis (253.5)BWH80-75W100%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (122.4)BWH50-88L0%0.0
1-7UMKC (274.0)WACA84-69L0%0.0
1-9Chicago St. (343.8)WACA50-66W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Bakersfield (143.1)WACH52-79L0%0.0
1-21New Mexico St. (119.9)WACH60-68L0%0.0
1-23UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACH70-59W100%0.0
1-28Utah Valley (257.3)WACA62-73W100%0.0
1-30Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA57-59W100%0.0
2-4Chicago St. (343.8)WACH59-56W100%0.0
2-6UMKC (274.0)WACH65-55W100%0.0
2-12Grand Canyon (101.1)WACH0-025%-7.3
2-18UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACA0-064%3.9
2-20New Mexico St. (119.9)WACA0-07%-15.7
2-27Utah Valley (257.3)WACH0-062%3.4
3-5Cal St. Bakersfield (143.1)WACA0-011%-13.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.4926.4742.4241.37-4.01-4.57
Grand CanyonWAC2.984.7486.3684.502.173.27
New Mexico St.WAC2.984.7463.6466.480.811.56
Utah ValleyWAC2.984.7435.0036.29-0.89-1.30
Chicago St.WAC5.214.714.768.33-4.71-3.93
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.034.7065.0065.440.911.45
UMKCWAC5.204.7026.3231.27-2.46-1.76
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.924.7015.0015.25-2.05-3.27
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.823.9252.6354.310.250.34
UC DavisBW2.682.2142.1138.19-0.42-0.52
Sacramento St.BSky2.612.1338.8943.64-0.58-0.27
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.542.1340.0048.55-0.51-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.532.1217.3920.79-1.65-1.24
Cal St. FullertonBW2.612.1031.5829.67-0.96-0.85
WashingtonP122.502.0263.6459.740.680.39
CaliforniaP122.441.9963.6461.670.660.46
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.431.9817.3921.17-1.59-1.14
San Jose St.MWC2.381.9226.3223.64-1.13-1.01
UABCUSA2.381.9281.8278.721.521.10
Portland St.BSky0.460.4631.5837.72-0.17-0.11
IdahoBSky0.410.4354.5554.930.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.180.2945.0046.14-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.410.2940.9143.72-0.08-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.290.2945.8341.66-0.02-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.340.2815.0015.36-0.24-0.20
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2845.4551.34-0.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.280.2872.7371.610.130.12
HawaiiBW0.330.2784.2181.680.230.17
Arizona St.P120.330.2754.1751.650.030.01
South DakotaSum0.350.2541.6741.24-0.06-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.2510.0013.12-0.23-0.18
WyomingMWC0.220.2443.4842.51-0.03-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.210.2452.1751.930.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.300.2230.0035.78-0.12-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.170.2245.0046.77-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.220.2282.6177.730.140.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.2185.7185.390.160.15
Weber St.BSky0.120.2165.0069.270.040.08
Cal PolyBW0.180.2130.0034.56-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.2128.5728.55-0.08-0.09
New MexicoMWC0.160.2160.8762.990.040.05
MontanaBSky0.350.2157.8962.290.060.05
Air ForceMWC0.280.2145.4538.48-0.03-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1936.8438.40-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.150.1965.0066.790.050.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.1856.5256.310.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1747.3749.97-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1728.5726.96-0.05-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1772.7372.030.070.08
Oregon St.P120.170.1661.9056.430.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1547.8350.14-0.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1576.1973.380.090.07
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1561.9059.650.040.03
DenverSum0.170.1454.1751.800.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1472.7368.020.050.05
MinnesotaB100.220.1426.0927.82-0.10-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.1440.9140.64-0.04-0.03
PacificWCC0.240.1425.0028.89-0.12-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.100.1350.0051.170.000.00
StanfordP120.170.1350.0046.610.00-0.01
USCP120.160.1378.2673.060.090.06
ArizonaP120.160.1379.1778.310.090.07
ColoradoP120.160.1369.5765.300.060.04
UtahP120.160.1372.7368.540.070.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1238.8945.64-0.03-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1215.7920.03-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1247.6252.67-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.129.0917.11-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1245.4554.10-0.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1163.6462.150.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1177.2776.850.090.06
Boise St.MWC0.120.1163.6462.520.030.03
PortlandWCC0.180.1140.0038.50-0.04-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.180.1131.8229.14-0.06-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.170.1122.7323.25-0.09-0.06
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.6413.63-0.08-0.08
MarquetteBE0.160.1062.5056.260.040.01
BYUWCC0.110.1066.6769.500.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1047.8344.37-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.170.1054.5550.110.020.00
IllinoisB100.160.1047.8344.55-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1025.0024.37-0.08-0.05
OaklandHorz0.160.1068.0067.970.060.04
DavidsonA100.170.1060.0057.950.030.02
Iowa St.B120.150.1073.9170.070.070.04
NorthwesternB100.150.1066.6763.430.050.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1028.0030.73-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1068.1866.670.040.03
UCLAP120.100.1056.5253.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.1036.3632.01-0.01-0.03
OregonP120.050.0981.8278.150.030.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0731.5831.77-0.02-0.03
DrakeMVC0.110.0721.7423.66-0.06-0.04
IowaB100.110.0781.8280.120.070.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0731.5831.96-0.02-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0780.9575.490.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0720.0026.76-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0765.2267.130.020.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0713.6415.80-0.04-0.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0738.8938.51-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.120.0752.3850.420.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.0739.1338.57-0.03-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0755.0054.530.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0763.6459.230.030.01
BaylorB120.050.0772.7366.500.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0731.8236.12-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0750.0051.170.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.079.5213.53-0.04-0.05
DePaulBE0.100.0734.7834.45-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.100.0754.5556.010.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0757.1459.450.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0752.6350.230.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0763.1658.810.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0739.1341.12-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.110.0776.1968.220.060.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0717.3920.65-0.03-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0781.8283.030.070.05
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0728.5731.37-0.05-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0727.7829.14-0.05-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0756.2556.100.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0730.4331.18-0.04-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0634.7840.92-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.18-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.410.020.02
TexasB120.100.0669.5762.640.040.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.29-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.100.0628.5729.71-0.04-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.0633.3332.99-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0654.1749.290.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.0654.1751.820.010.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0459.0960.070.010.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0450.0055.190.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0381.8280.040.040.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0359.0959.660.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0354.1757.520.000.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.870.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.720.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.51-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.12-0.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5831.99-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0370.5975.550.020.02
TCUB120.050.0343.4837.22-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.69-0.03-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.35-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4542.00-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.550.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.37-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.02
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.360.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0370.8370.930.020.01
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.370.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.010.030.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.36-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.420.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0315.0027.27-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.130.010.00