live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 21, 2017.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:287.5
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:294
Current Record:9-14
Expected Record:10-16
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-14240.70.99%
11-15259.215.16%
10-16283.148.96%
9-17307.534.88%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Colorado (109.8)P12A67-55L0%0.0
11-16Notre Dame (27.4)ACCA92-49L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Monroe (303.0)SBN81-75W100%0.0
11-22Eastern Washington (144.4)BSkyA80-76L0%0.0
11-26UCF (100.0)AmerA67-51L0%0.0
12-4Eastern Washington (144.4)BSkyH88-93L0%0.0
12-12Arkansas Pine Bluff (340.6)SWACH63-58W100%0.0
12-15Mississippi Valley St. (338.8)SWACH82-67W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (342.0)BSkyH89-75W100%0.0
12-22Washington (196.0)P12H72-94L0%0.0
12-28UC Davis (206.8)BWH65-72L0%0.0
12-30UC Santa Barbara (328.6)BWA76-80W100%0.0
1-7Cal St. Bakersfield (79.3)WACA78-71L0%0.0
1-12UMKC (182.3)WACH68-84L0%0.0
1-14Chicago St. (314.5)WACH65-50W100%0.0
1-21Grand Canyon (147.8)WACA61-59L0%0.0
1-26New Mexico St. (56.1)WACH56-71L0%0.0
1-28UT Rio Grande Valley (303.0)WACH96-84W100%0.0
2-4Utah Valley (230.5)WACH63-50W100%0.0
2-9Chicago St. (314.5)WACN65-90W100%0.0
2-11UMKC (182.3)WACA102-72L0%0.0
2-16Grand Canyon (147.8)WACH58-61L0%0.0
2-18Cal St. Bakersfield (79.3)WACH48-51L0%0.0
2-23UT Rio Grande Valley (303.0)WACA0-049%-0.4
2-25New Mexico St. (56.1)WACA0-09%-14.6
3-4Utah Valley (230.5)WACA0-026%-6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.4326.4433.3334.80-8.81-8.04
Grand CanyonWAC4.974.7662.5062.871.241.23
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.974.7566.6769.011.661.81
Chicago St.WAC4.924.7213.0412.71-3.64-3.52
Utah ValleyWAC3.014.7136.3636.61-0.82-1.26
UMKCWAC4.884.6943.4842.92-0.64-0.66
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.974.6929.1728.56-1.24-2.01
New Mexico St.WAC2.974.6982.6183.151.943.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky4.433.9460.8763.050.961.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.452.1413.0415.47-1.81-1.48
ColoradoP122.422.1253.8554.140.190.18
UC DavisBW2.312.0754.1754.320.190.18
Southern UtahBSky2.262.0612.5013.84-1.70-1.49
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.302.0514.8118.72-1.62-1.28
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.302.0523.0825.10-1.24-1.02
Notre DameACC2.302.0274.0773.501.110.95
WashingtonP122.251.9930.7730.19-0.87-0.79
Louisiana MonroeSB2.211.9620.8322.54-1.29-1.07
UCFAmer2.171.9261.5460.810.500.42
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.3423.0823.15-0.19-0.18
UC RiversideBW0.260.2826.0928.37-0.13-0.12
Portland St.BSky0.270.2840.9144.14-0.05-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.220.2760.8760.760.050.06
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2440.7442.89-0.04-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.180.2416.0016.87-0.12-0.16
ArizonaP120.300.2489.2987.670.230.18
Cal PolyBW0.260.2425.0027.74-0.13-0.11
IdahoBSky0.260.2347.8350.76-0.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.2337.5040.15-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.180.2153.8556.840.010.03
North DakotaBSky0.270.2163.6464.980.070.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.2140.7442.17-0.04-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2047.8347.11-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.170.2060.0060.180.030.04
Washington St.P120.170.2042.3139.95-0.03-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.2034.7836.96-0.07-0.05
NorthwesternB100.250.2071.4368.300.110.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.240.1952.1749.960.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.180.1865.5264.140.060.05
New MexicoMWC0.130.1757.1456.380.020.02
DenverSum0.170.1759.2658.980.030.03
HawaiiBW0.170.1748.0047.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1759.2659.750.030.03
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.4344.11-0.01-0.02
MontanaBSky0.220.1750.0050.340.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.220.1746.1546.03-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.1536.0035.94-0.03-0.04
North FloridaASun0.140.1430.7732.11-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.090.1440.0041.65-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.180.1485.7185.550.130.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1443.4843.29-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.1459.0960.270.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.14100.0099.810.130.14
Air ForceMWC0.130.1432.0032.04-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1344.4443.17-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.170.1374.0773.490.080.06
Texas St.SB0.090.1354.1753.200.010.01
DrakeMVC0.170.1323.0823.92-0.09-0.07
HoustonAmer0.120.1369.2368.340.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1366.6763.160.040.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1329.1731.48-0.07-0.05
UCLAP120.130.1388.8988.040.100.10
USCP120.130.1377.7875.860.070.07
TexasB120.170.1335.7134.86-0.05-0.04
BryantNEC0.170.1335.7137.15-0.05-0.03
CaliforniaP120.120.1369.2367.330.050.04
LouisvilleACC0.120.1381.4879.740.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.134.005.37-0.15-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1328.0028.93-0.07-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.1337.5042.37-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1330.7734.70-0.06-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.160.1348.0047.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1359.2662.730.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.1140.7440.12-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1050.0049.420.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.1020.0022.22-0.05-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.090.1065.3864.110.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.1034.7833.52-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1064.2964.460.040.03
Saint LouisA100.130.1033.3331.01-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.130.1053.8552.830.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1078.5777.380.070.06
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1053.8551.910.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1051.8550.750.000.00
PortlandWCC0.080.1029.6329.44-0.03-0.04
IowaB100.080.1053.5751.530.010.00
West VirginiaB120.130.1078.5777.770.070.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1025.9326.05-0.06-0.05
Little RockSB0.130.1044.0043.42-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.130.1066.6766.160.040.03
DukeACC0.120.1081.4878.450.080.06
OregonP120.120.1085.1984.810.080.07
Oregon St.P120.120.1014.8113.94-0.08-0.07
StanfordP120.080.1048.0046.99-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0726.0925.96-0.05-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0756.0054.880.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0740.0042.25-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0762.9662.450.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0753.8554.290.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0740.7440.19-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0732.1432.59-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0780.7778.230.050.04
DePaulBE0.090.0729.6327.86-0.04-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0757.6958.300.010.01
KansasB120.090.0788.8987.370.070.05
LamarSlnd0.040.0747.8349.98-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0753.5752.490.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.090.0746.1546.48-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.090.0762.9662.810.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0742.8643.31-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0710.7111.38-0.03-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.090.0750.0049.750.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0726.0925.92-0.04-0.03
WisconsinB100.090.0781.4880.890.050.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0777.7877.180.050.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0760.7160.550.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0769.2368.600.030.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.040.0746.1547.50-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0757.6955.360.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0760.0059.390.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0756.0055.900.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0724.1424.51-0.04-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0744.0046.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0762.9662.610.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0750.0048.800.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0760.0060.890.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0714.8115.44-0.06-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0776.0076.540.020.04
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0688.8987.440.030.05
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0652.0050.070.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0646.4343.90-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0651.8551.320.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.040.0626.9225.65-0.02-0.03
TCUB120.080.0661.5458.110.020.01
TempleAmer0.040.0650.0052.260.000.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0646.1547.81-0.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0692.8691.340.070.05
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0632.1430.40-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0678.5776.170.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0660.0060.590.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0655.5652.790.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0462.0762.310.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0325.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0362.9661.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0368.0068.630.020.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4639.09-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0351.8551.270.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0346.1546.35-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0364.0063.270.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0328.5730.87-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0352.1748.670.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0344.0042.78-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0352.1753.600.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0357.6956.380.010.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0337.0436.28-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.040.0381.4879.390.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0371.4372.700.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0330.7733.69-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0348.1547.58-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.040.0330.7729.92-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0365.3863.380.010.01
PennIvy0.040.0347.8350.34-0.000.00
SienaMAAC0.040.0348.2848.54-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.040.0329.6328.76-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0318.5218.47-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0348.1547.60-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0342.3143.65-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.040.0342.3143.04-0.01-0.00
YaleIvy0.040.0359.0960.200.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0351.8553.690.000.00
ColgatePat0.040.0332.1433.17-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0353.5752.940.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0366.6764.790.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.090.000.00
LibertyBSth0.040.0357.6957.620.010.00
Loyola MDPat0.040.0350.0050.300.000.00
Miami FLACC0.040.0370.3767.210.020.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0359.2657.860.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.040.0381.4879.400.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.38-0.04-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.540.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0355.5651.610.000.00
PurdueB100.040.0382.1480.770.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0357.1457.270.010.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0357.1455.700.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.040.0334.4834.58-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.630.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0370.3769.240.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0355.5654.920.000.00