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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Seattle

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:165.0
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:202
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:250



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13165.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seattle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Saint Louis (148.0)A10A62-46L0%0.0
11-15Washington St. (179.0)P12A75-59L0%0.0
11-18Detroit (318.0)HorzN71-102W100%0.0
11-19Belmont (81.0)OVCA90-77L0%0.0
11-24Washington (71.0)P12A89-84L0%0.0
11-27Idaho St. (268.0)BSkyH73-67W100%0.0
11-30Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunH66-54W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Washington (122.0)BSkyH84-65W100%0.0
12-9Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCA97-73L0%0.0
12-16Portland (285.0)WCCH89-76W100%0.0
12-19California (216.0)P12H59-81L0%0.0
12-23Nicholls St. (145.0)SlndH95-89W100%0.0
12-28Grambling St. (249.0)SWACH93-63W100%0.0
12-30UC Riverside (300.0)BWH95-71W100%0.0
1-6Grand Canyon (156.0)WACH57-73L0%0.0
1-11Chicago St. (335.0)WACH67-64W100%0.0
1-13UMKC (256.0)WACH77-75W100%0.0
1-18New Mexico St. (35.0)WACA75-62L0%0.0
1-20UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA76-79W100%0.0
1-26Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH59-55W100%0.0
2-3Utah Valley (83.0)WACH55-54W100%0.0
2-8UMKC (256.0)WACA74-67L0%0.0
2-10Chicago St. (335.0)WACA81-91W100%0.0
2-15UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH85-68W100%0.0
2-17New Mexico St. (35.0)WACH73-63W100%0.0
2-22Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA76-64L0%0.0
2-24Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACA64-57L0%0.0
3-3Utah Valley (83.0)WACA73-47L0%0.0
3-8UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACN77-60W100%0.0
3-9New Mexico St. (35.0)WACN84-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seattle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seattle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seattle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SeattleWAC26.4526.4556.2556.253.313.31
New Mexico St.WAC5.875.8785.1985.194.134.13
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC5.795.7948.1548.15-0.21-0.21
Grand CanyonWAC4.394.3963.3363.331.171.17
Utah ValleyWAC4.294.2966.6766.671.431.43
Chicago St.WAC4.214.213.573.57-3.91-3.91
UMKCWAC4.174.1725.9325.93-2.01-2.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.174.1732.0032.00-1.50-1.50
Saint Mary'sWCC1.861.8684.3884.381.281.28
WashingtonP121.861.8661.2961.290.420.42
Washington St.P121.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
CaliforniaP121.831.8323.3323.33-0.97-0.97
UC RiversideBW1.801.8025.0025.00-0.90-0.90
Grambling St.SWAC1.801.8055.1755.170.190.19
Idaho St.BSky1.781.7844.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Nicholls St.Slnd1.751.7562.9662.960.450.45
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
PortlandWCC1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
Saint LouisA101.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
DetroitHorz1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Kennesaw St.ASun1.691.6929.6329.63-0.69-0.69
IdahoBSky0.260.2668.9768.970.100.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2562.0762.070.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.250.2548.4848.48-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
BYUWCC0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
StanfordP120.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
UC DavisBW0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.2030.7730.77-0.08-0.08
UCLAP120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
USCP120.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
PepperdineWCC0.190.1916.1316.13-0.13-0.13
Oregon St.P120.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1713.3313.33-0.13-0.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1716.6716.67-0.11-0.11
OregonP120.160.1664.7164.710.050.05
UtahP120.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.140.1477.4277.420.070.07
Arizona St.P120.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
DavidsonA100.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
IllinoisB100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ColoradoP120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
HawaiiBW0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
South DakotaSum0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
LipscombASun0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1112.5012.50-0.08-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.100.1082.7682.760.070.07
LamarSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0912.5012.50-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
IUPUIHorz0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.068.008.00-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PennIvy0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.069.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0632.3532.35-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01