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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:62.2
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:14
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-310.00.01%
27-48.80.06%
26-59.10.25%
25-614.10.91%
24-719.93.45%
23-826.76.50%
22-935.411.42%
21-1045.716.53%
20-1157.318.40%
19-1271.215.90%
18-1384.912.56%
17-1498.87.46%
16-15114.84.18%
15-16132.81.62%
14-17149.80.59%
13-18166.80.13%
12-19179.00.01%
11-20206.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Radford (229.1)BSthH64-46W100%0.0
11-18Old Dominion (79.5)CUSAA63-57L0%0.0
11-22High Point (152.5)BSthH80-56W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina St. (34.5)ACCA84-72L0%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (35.6)MVCA0-032%-5.8
12-3William & Mary (115.3)CAAH0-081%10.6
12-7James Madison (223.0)CAAA0-078%9.2
12-13Howard (263.4)MEACH0-094%18.8
12-18South Alabama (235.1)SBH0-093%17.4
12-20Pepperdine (135.8)WCCN0-064%4.2
12-23IUPUI (266.5)SumH0-095%20.1
12-28Wake Forest (92.9)ACCH0-064%4.2
12-31Northeastern (83.8)CAAH0-074%7.6
1-3Davidson (76.9)A10A0-042%-2.5
1-8George Mason (226.8)A10H0-092%16.7
1-11St. Bonaventure (145.7)A10H0-080%10.0
1-15George Washington (70.1)A10A0-035%-4.8
1-17Davidson (76.9)A10H0-065%4.6
1-24Dayton (56.0)A10A0-035%-4.6
1-28Duquesne (146.7)A10H0-080%10.0
1-31VCU (23.7)A10A0-027%-7.3
2-5La Salle (98.1)A10A0-054%1.1
2-8Rhode Island (97.0)A10H0-071%6.7
2-11Fordham (257.3)A10H0-093%17.5
2-14George Mason (226.8)A10A0-079%9.5
2-18St. Bonaventure (145.7)A10A0-059%2.8
2-21George Washington (70.1)A10H0-058%2.4
2-25VCU (23.7)A10H0-050%-0.1
2-28Saint Joseph's (187.2)A10A0-073%7.2
3-4Massachusetts (41.1)A10A0-037%-4.0
3-7Saint Louis (170.3)A10H0-084%12.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1030.6326.1450.0063.670.007.14
VCUA100.003.9280.0073.870.001.87
George MasonA100.003.9220.0022.24-0.00-2.17
George WashingtonA100.003.8675.0070.430.001.58
DavidsonA100.003.8666.6763.040.001.01
St. BonaventureA100.003.7875.0053.690.000.28
DuquesneA100.002.34100.0055.600.000.26
MassachusettsA100.002.2883.3366.720.000.76
Saint LouisA100.002.2875.0047.470.00-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.2560.0039.910.00-0.45
DaytonA100.002.2575.0071.360.000.96
FordhamA100.002.250.0026.71-0.00-1.05
La SalleA100.002.23100.0056.970.000.31
Rhode IslandA100.002.22100.0061.610.000.52
HowardMEAC1.561.8125.0047.19-0.78-0.10
William & MaryCAA0.001.8075.0057.550.000.27
James MadisonCAA1.561.7880.0047.750.94-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.001.7580.0068.030.000.63
Old DominionCUSA12.501.7575.0073.646.250.83
High PointBSth12.501.73100.0058.1312.500.28
RadfordBSth12.501.7333.3348.44-4.17-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.001.72100.0078.230.000.97
IUPUISum0.001.7040.0031.71-0.00-0.62
South AlabamaSB0.001.700.0040.32-0.00-0.33
PepperdineWCC0.001.7066.6756.290.000.21
North Carolina St.ACC12.501.66100.0064.2812.500.48
Wake ForestACC0.001.6666.6752.110.000.07
VirginiaACC0.000.32100.0073.600.000.15
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2840.0053.46-0.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.2514.2931.08-0.00-0.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.250.2566.6747.140.42-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.220.0019.74-0.00-0.13
DrexelCAA0.000.2220.0036.68-0.00-0.06
HofstraCAA1.250.2260.0068.220.250.08
TowsonCAA0.000.1980.0057.990.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.170.0034.56-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1720.0022.02-0.00-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1760.0067.390.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1775.0067.420.000.06
ElonCAA0.000.1640.0039.53-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth1.250.1540.0057.50-0.250.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1566.6753.550.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1525.0052.61-0.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1433.3361.50-0.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1425.0048.57-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1460.0057.880.000.02
Illinois St.MVC1.250.1350.0064.230.000.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.0022.89-0.00-0.06
WinthropBSth0.000.1233.3353.30-0.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.1142.8640.94-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0027.68-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1133.3330.18-0.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.1183.3348.410.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.1166.6751.430.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1160.0067.690.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.1160.0036.000.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0079.800.000.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1175.0043.690.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1133.3354.73-0.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1160.0050.770.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.1180.0079.380.000.06
DenverSum0.000.1150.0060.810.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0077.100.000.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1040.0038.08-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0049.260.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1040.0038.71-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0950.0073.640.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0920.0029.02-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0960.0042.120.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0925.0039.67-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0966.6750.870.000.00
NJITind0.000.0920.0029.79-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0860.0058.400.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0088.520.000.07
UMBCAE0.000.080.0027.57-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0833.3330.44-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0825.0026.31-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.0850.0067.000.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0825.0048.11-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.08100.0071.830.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0833.3339.69-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0850.0052.730.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC1.250.0820.0043.55-0.75-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0037.52-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.08100.0069.720.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0840.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.08100.0084.900.000.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0875.0068.330.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0825.0041.79-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0825.0024.98-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0061.080.000.02
DukeACC0.000.08100.0083.600.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.0883.3369.220.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0044.110.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.64-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.77-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0025.330.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.01-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3331.37-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0049.940.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0058.990.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6740.010.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0650.0064.920.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0074.750.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.430.000.03
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.830.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0066.35-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0027.510.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.220.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.83-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0022.97-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.180.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6726.420.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.010.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.69-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0051.72-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0055.640.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0675.0064.910.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.520.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0064.150.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6746.630.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0043.61-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.520.000.00
VMISC0.000.0625.0036.44-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.860.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0566.6749.610.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0550.0065.840.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0550.0029.060.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0566.6762.950.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0550.0040.810.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0550.0044.930.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0550.0049.570.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0550.0050.040.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0047.310.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0575.0038.820.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0540.0038.45-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.050.0023.29-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.050.0038.82-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0560.0050.320.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.05100.0079.750.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0533.3346.13-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.31-0.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0039.02-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0580.0071.830.000.02
LSUSEC1.250.0560.0055.990.250.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0525.0036.66-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0583.3368.600.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0580.0076.610.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0525.0049.12-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0566.6758.830.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0566.6773.440.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0079.150.000.03
OregonP120.000.0560.0063.060.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0580.0068.140.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0540.0060.24-0.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.01-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6759.280.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.300.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.560.0316.6731.72-1.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.560.0320.0038.42-0.94-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.350.000.01
HawaiiBW1.560.0371.4357.180.670.00
TCUB121.560.03100.0061.121.560.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.63-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.110.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0325.0033.19-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3338.74-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.42-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0023.00-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.860.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.150.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0320.0038.27-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.26-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.60-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0046.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0058.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.580.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3350.63-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.810.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.51-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.500.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.670.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.480.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3339.40-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.23-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0049.14-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.26-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0033.15-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.26-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.34-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0340.0052.52-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0383.3339.590.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.700.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0041.72-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0051.96-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.490.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3329.25-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.810.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0062.960.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.82-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.63-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.38-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.41-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0071.650.000.01
JacksonvilleASun1.250.030.0025.58-1.25-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0320.0029.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0031.85-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0325.0034.11-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer1.250.0375.0055.330.620.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.290.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.510.000.00