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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:84
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1492.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Liberty (288.0)BSthH84-42W100%0.0
11-13NC Wilmington (301.0)CAAH101-58W100%0.0
11-15Hampton (287.0)MEACH68-58W100%0.0
11-18Minnesota (34.0)B10A72-57L0%0.0
11-20Wofford (250.0)SCH64-58W100%0.0
11-24Ohio (67.0)MACA73-48L0%0.0
11-28William & Mary (271.0)CAAH86-78W100%0.0
12-1Wake Forest (170.0)ACCH62-60W100%0.0
12-4Old Dominion (318.0)CAAA53-80W100%0.0
12-8James Madison (182.0)CAAA82-83W100%0.0
12-15Stetson (220.0)ASunH76-57W100%0.0
12-18Kansas (5.0)B12A87-59L0%0.0
12-22George Mason (162.0)CAAN64-67L0%0.0
12-29Davidson (61.0)SCH64-70L0%0.0
1-2Air Force (80.0)MWCH91-68W100%0.0
1-9Rhode Island (201.0)A10H64-61W100%0.0
1-12La Salle (46.0)A10A71-59L0%0.0
1-16Butler (22.0)A10A62-47L0%0.0
1-19Charlotte (68.0)A10H81-61W100%0.0
1-24Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H86-74W100%0.0
1-27Massachusetts (57.0)A10A70-65L0%0.0
1-30Temple (42.0)A10A71-64L0%0.0
2-2Xavier (87.0)A10H73-71W100%0.0
2-9St. Louis (15.0)A10H46-56L0%0.0
2-13Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A61-55L0%0.0
2-16St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H83-80W100%0.0
2-23Fordham (228.0)A10A55-72W100%0.0
2-27George Washington (147.0)A10H73-64W100%0.0
3-2Dayton (114.0)A10A78-74L0%0.0
3-6Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A93-82L0%0.0
3-9Duquesne (229.0)A10H79-55W100%0.0
3-14Charlotte (68.0)A10N63-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1025.9025.9055.0055.002.592.59
Virginia CommonwealthA103.633.6378.1278.122.042.04
CharlotteA103.573.5766.6766.671.191.19
St. LouisA102.132.1381.2581.251.331.33
MassachusettsA102.112.1164.5264.520.610.61
ButlerA102.092.0975.0075.001.041.04
XavierA102.092.0956.6756.670.280.28
TempleA102.062.0670.9770.970.860.86
Saint Joseph'sA102.062.0656.6756.670.270.27
George WashingtonA102.032.0344.8344.83-0.21-0.21
DuquesneA102.012.0127.5927.59-0.90-0.90
DaytonA102.012.0153.3353.330.130.13
La SalleA102.012.0168.9768.970.760.76
St. BonaventureA102.012.0150.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA102.012.0128.5728.57-0.86-0.86
FordhamA101.991.9923.3323.33-1.06-1.06
James MadisonCAA1.881.8860.6160.610.400.40
William & MaryCAA1.861.8642.8642.86-0.27-0.27
NC WilmingtonCAA1.841.8432.1432.14-0.66-0.66
Old DominionCAA1.811.8117.2417.24-1.19-1.19
George MasonCAA1.771.7754.8454.840.170.17
WoffordSC1.711.7140.0040.00-0.34-0.34
OhioMAC1.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
DavidsonSC1.691.6977.4277.420.930.93
HamptonMEAC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Wake ForestACC1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
KansasB121.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
StetsonASun1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Air ForceMWC1.561.5655.5655.560.170.17
MinnesotaB101.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
NortheasternCAA0.380.3862.5062.500.090.09
DelawareCAA0.300.3057.5857.580.050.05
DrexelCAA0.300.3041.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.CAA0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.230.2319.3519.35-0.14-0.14
Georgia SouthernSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.170.1784.3884.380.120.12
WinthropBSth0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Miami FLACC0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
NC GreensboroSC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonSC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
New MexicoMWC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
High PointBSth0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
ElonSC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
MemphisCUSA0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
MercerASun0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
New Orleansind0.080.0818.1818.18-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0753.8553.850.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
OklahomaB120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
SyracuseBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00