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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:80.0
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:91
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1280.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11VMI (329.0)SCH72-69W100%0.0
11-14Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH61-64L0%0.0
11-20Robert Morris (237.0)NECH81-69W100%0.0
11-22Hampton (283.0)MEACH65-52W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (36.0)B10N82-88L0%0.0
11-26Boston College (219.0)ACCN67-54W100%0.0
11-30Bucknell (63.0)PatA73-68L0%0.0
12-3Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH67-75L0%0.0
12-10UMBC (165.0)AEH78-75W100%0.0
12-17Texas Tech (124.0)B12H72-79L0%0.0
12-20James Madison (255.0)CAAA55-75W100%0.0
12-23Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA87-72L0%0.0
12-31Davidson (93.0)A10A80-82W100%0.0
1-4Fordham (215.0)A10H80-72W100%0.0
1-8George Washington (102.0)A10A70-77W100%0.0
1-11St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H78-61W100%0.0
1-14Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A66-70W100%0.0
1-19Dayton (30.0)A10A75-59L0%0.0
1-22George Mason (103.0)A10H77-82L0%0.0
1-25Rhode Island (31.0)A10H73-62W100%0.0
1-28Duquesne (267.0)A10H101-90W100%0.0
2-1VCU (22.0)A10A81-74L0%0.0
2-4George Washington (102.0)A10H84-75W100%0.0
2-11La Salle (133.0)A10A52-64W100%0.0
2-14George Mason (103.0)A10A93-70L0%0.0
2-17VCU (22.0)A10H73-84L0%0.0
2-21Davidson (93.0)A10H84-76W100%0.0
2-25Fordham (215.0)A10A48-70W100%0.0
3-1Massachusetts (195.0)A10A64-75W100%0.0
3-4Saint Louis (238.0)A10H72-62W100%0.0
3-10George Washington (102.0)A10N70-67W100%0.0
3-11VCU (22.0)A10N87-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.2226.2260.5360.535.525.52
VCUA105.405.4074.1974.192.612.61
George WashingtonA105.325.3263.3363.331.421.42
George MasonA103.893.8956.6756.670.520.52
DavidsonA103.853.8556.6756.670.510.51
FordhamA103.733.7341.3841.38-0.64-0.64
Rhode IslandA102.342.3475.0075.001.171.17
DuquesneA102.292.2932.2632.26-0.81-0.81
Saint LouisA102.272.2737.5037.50-0.57-0.57
DaytonA102.262.2675.8675.861.171.17
La SalleA102.242.2451.7251.720.080.08
MassachusettsA102.222.2246.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Saint Joseph'sA102.192.1936.6736.67-0.59-0.59
St. BonaventureA102.192.1964.5264.520.640.64
Old DominionCUSA1.681.6860.0060.000.340.34
James MadisonCAA1.661.6629.0329.03-0.70-0.70
Wake ForestACC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
Robert MorrisNEC1.641.6443.7543.75-0.20-0.20
BucknellPat1.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Boston CollegeACC1.641.6429.0329.03-0.69-0.69
UMBCAE1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
VMISC1.591.5914.8114.81-1.12-1.12
HamptonMEAC1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
MarylandB101.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
Oral RobertsSum1.561.5618.5218.52-0.98-0.98
Texas TechB121.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
TowsonCAA0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
HowardMEAC0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
MercerSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
HarvardIvy0.170.1761.5461.540.040.04
Penn St.B100.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
TempleAmer0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.150.1578.5778.570.080.08
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
HartfordAE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Miami FLACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
LehighPat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
SienaMAAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
RutgersB100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
NavyPat0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
ArmyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01