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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:173.6
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:187
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-635.00.01%
23-743.50.02%
22-856.70.03%
21-973.20.18%
20-1084.80.76%
19-1197.92.13%
18-12114.34.85%
17-13130.49.92%
16-14146.714.44%
15-15164.119.07%
14-16182.717.63%
13-17201.813.90%
12-18220.49.74%
11-19237.74.81%
10-20255.81.79%
9-21271.90.55%
8-22290.90.09%
7-23306.70.03%
6-24301.70.03%
5-25296.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11VMI (322.2)SCH72-69W100%0.0
11-14Old Dominion (102.4)CUSAH61-64L0%0.0
11-20Robert Morris (226.1)NECH81-69W100%0.0
11-22Hampton (312.6)MEACH65-52W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (87.4)B10N82-88L0%0.0
11-26Boston College (233.5)ACCN67-54W100%0.0
11-30Bucknell (94.2)PatA73-68L0%0.0
12-3Wake Forest (52.1)ACCH67-75L0%0.0
12-10UMBC (208.3)AEH0-080%10.0
12-17Texas Tech (72.4)B12H0-025%-7.9
12-20James Madison (264.0)CAAA0-063%4.0
12-23Oral Roberts (290.1)SumA0-069%5.8
12-31Davidson (68.7)A10A0-023%-9.0
1-4Fordham (219.4)A10H0-070%6.4
1-8George Washington (187.8)A10A0-048%-0.7
1-11St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10H0-039%-3.3
1-14Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10A0-038%-3.6
1-19Dayton (38.8)A10A0-013%-13.4
1-22George Mason (191.5)A10H0-071%6.6
1-25Rhode Island (34.2)A10H0-030%-6.4
1-28Duquesne (244.3)A10H0-075%8.1
2-1VCU (43.9)A10A0-017%-11.5
2-4George Washington (187.8)A10H0-068%5.6
2-11La Salle (90.1)A10A0-030%-6.2
2-14George Mason (191.5)A10A0-051%0.3
2-17VCU (43.9)A10H0-033%-5.3
2-21Davidson (68.7)A10H0-041%-2.8
2-25Fordham (219.4)A10A0-050%0.1
3-1Massachusetts (109.7)A10A0-034%-5.0
3-4Saint Louis (286.5)A10H0-087%13.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1028.1726.1138.8945.49-6.26-2.36
VCUA100.004.0075.0072.780.001.82
George WashingtonA100.003.9755.5642.150.00-0.62
George MasonA100.003.9662.5047.020.00-0.24
DavidsonA100.003.9671.4362.600.001.00
FordhamA100.003.9250.0041.780.00-0.64
DuquesneA100.312.3940.0039.66-0.06-0.49
Rhode IslandA100.392.3366.6770.400.130.95
DaytonA100.002.3371.4372.790.001.06
La SalleA100.312.3357.1456.060.040.28
Saint LouisA100.002.3125.0024.36-0.00-1.18
MassachusettsA100.002.3071.4357.900.000.36
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.3042.8644.78-0.00-0.24
St. BonaventureA100.002.2775.0070.680.000.94
James MadisonCAA0.391.7812.5029.94-0.29-0.71
Old DominionCUSA6.251.7857.1465.340.890.54
Robert MorrisNEC7.011.7533.3347.01-2.34-0.10
BucknellPat6.911.7566.6769.552.300.68
Wake ForestACC6.561.7575.0053.643.280.13
Boston CollegeACC6.251.7266.6730.752.08-0.66
UMBCAE0.001.7280.0055.490.000.19
VMISC6.251.700.0017.19-6.25-1.11
HamptonMEAC6.561.6916.6744.42-4.38-0.19
MarylandB106.251.6785.7157.624.460.25
Oral RobertsSum0.001.670.0022.43-0.00-0.92
Texas TechB120.001.6787.5061.230.000.37
TowsonCAA1.540.2542.8653.80-0.220.02
MercerSC0.000.2042.8647.68-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.350.2062.5050.630.090.00
HowardMEAC0.000.1916.6743.53-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B121.600.1988.8956.711.240.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1711.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.1666.6746.170.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1633.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE1.280.1537.5043.19-0.32-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.1522.2226.44-0.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1583.3379.920.000.09
Virginia TechACC0.520.1485.7162.500.370.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.450.140.0034.54-0.45-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.450.1433.3346.06-0.15-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.350.1466.6761.690.120.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1471.4354.560.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1420.0060.00-0.000.03
PennIvy0.310.1433.3356.66-0.100.02
BaylorB120.000.14100.0076.070.000.07
TempleAmer0.000.1475.0064.820.000.04
St. John'sBE0.390.1444.4436.20-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1428.5727.38-0.00-0.06
LSUSEC0.390.1471.4347.690.17-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1444.4438.15-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1216.6730.09-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.1250.0042.750.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.450.1157.1450.790.060.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.910.000.07
DrexelCAA0.000.1150.0041.460.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.1188.8977.470.000.06
RutgersB100.000.1187.5050.250.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.1175.0070.570.000.05
DukeACC0.000.1190.0080.060.000.07
LongwoodBSth0.000.1120.0021.92-0.00-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0050.980.000.00
LehighPat0.310.1137.5061.81-0.080.03
PittsburghACC0.390.1175.0048.980.20-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1116.6739.99-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.1166.6751.140.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1188.8967.470.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.1157.1436.370.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1137.5047.44-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.1177.7866.740.000.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1133.3350.05-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1133.3340.37-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0950.0030.320.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0971.4355.570.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.310.090.0036.38-0.31-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0962.5056.520.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0920.0035.15-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0950.0071.340.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.63-0.00-0.05
NavyPat0.000.0833.3338.56-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0885.7183.250.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0047.990.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.350.0875.0066.090.170.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0850.0041.700.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.350.08100.0084.740.350.06
OklahomaB120.000.0871.4348.030.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0855.5643.870.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0875.0075.180.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.860.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0883.3377.290.000.05
DartmouthIvy0.840.080.0020.72-0.84-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.390.0887.5075.690.290.04
ManhattanMAAC0.310.0822.2232.01-0.17-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0833.3331.35-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.390.0812.5028.64-0.29-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0842.8650.29-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0842.8635.40-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0887.5075.730.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0076.970.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.390.0871.4354.010.170.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0877.7859.940.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0862.5062.080.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0850.0059.840.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0888.8978.430.000.05
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5030.11-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0842.8645.85-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0885.7175.800.000.04
WagnerNEC0.000.0828.5752.65-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0642.8660.66-0.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.590.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.16-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.520.0633.3351.98-0.170.00
MaineAE0.000.0614.2923.40-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0662.5062.120.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.400.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5050.92-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.820.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.870.0628.5734.49-0.37-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0662.5044.840.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.390.0655.5647.600.04-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.830.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.740.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.310.0655.5646.770.03-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0637.5025.74-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.41-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0662.5053.550.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0688.8966.920.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.49-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.350.0620.0035.46-0.21-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0533.3352.03-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.42-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0061.350.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0525.0029.90-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.90-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0585.7157.280.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8655.07-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0522.2246.51-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.310.0562.5055.890.080.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1451.810.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0575.0071.330.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0528.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0562.5052.400.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0516.6729.83-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0542.8637.05-0.06-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1433.200.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0512.5026.05-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.05100.0060.950.000.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0038.730.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0562.5071.850.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.520.0342.8639.64-0.07-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0320.0038.50-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0370.0050.010.180.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.520.0328.5724.39-0.22-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.540.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.70-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0357.1450.730.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0357.1464.500.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.350.0325.0038.98-0.17-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.820.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.60-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.75-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0050.170.000.00
ButlerBE0.310.03100.0074.830.310.01
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5067.080.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.07-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.310.0371.4337.680.13-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.77-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.0316.6740.32-0.21-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.57-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0377.7886.650.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.310.0337.5038.08-0.08-0.01