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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:72
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16121.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13James Madison (103.0)CAAH75-87L0%0.0
11-15Stetson (303.0)ASunH108-85W100%0.0
11-18Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA82-91W100%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH89-64W100%0.0
11-26West Virginia (10.0)B12N59-67L0%0.0
11-27California (16.0)P12N90-94W100%0.0
12-1Florida (55.0)SECA76-56L0%0.0
12-5Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH82-67W100%0.0
12-12Longwood (323.0)BSthH77-59W100%0.0
12-16Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH77-61W100%0.0
12-22Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH74-44W100%0.0
12-29Texas Tech (36.0)B12A85-70L0%0.0
1-2Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H73-77L0%0.0
1-5Rhode Island (119.0)A10A77-65L0%0.0
1-10Fordham (176.0)A10A82-93W100%0.0
1-13La Salle (232.0)A10H83-61W100%0.0
1-16VCU (37.0)A10H89-94L0%0.0
1-25Davidson (64.0)A10H70-78L0%0.0
1-28George Washington (68.0)A10A90-98W100%0.0
1-31St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A84-68L0%0.0
2-3George Mason (201.0)A10H74-78L0%0.0
2-6Massachusetts (171.0)A10H69-53W100%0.0
2-10Saint Louis (206.0)A10A53-67W100%0.0
2-13Fordham (176.0)A10H71-67W100%0.0
2-16Davidson (64.0)A10A83-79L0%0.0
2-19VCU (37.0)A10A87-74L0%0.0
2-24George Washington (68.0)A10H61-73L0%0.0
2-27Duquesne (162.0)A10A67-83W100%0.0
3-1Dayton (21.0)A10H84-85L0%0.0
3-5George Mason (201.0)A10A83-73L0%0.0
3-10Fordham (176.0)A10N55-70W100%0.0
3-11Dayton (21.0)A10N69-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.2026.2047.3747.37-1.38-1.38
FordhamA105.205.2061.5461.541.201.20
VCUA103.873.8768.7568.751.451.45
DavidsonA103.863.8658.6258.620.670.67
George MasonA103.843.8430.0030.00-1.54-1.54
George WashingtonA103.793.7970.9770.971.591.59
DaytonA103.723.7276.6776.671.981.98
Saint Joseph'sA102.412.4178.7978.791.381.38
Saint LouisA102.322.3235.4835.48-0.67-0.67
La SalleA102.312.3127.5927.59-1.04-1.04
MassachusettsA102.282.2845.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Rhode IslandA102.282.2851.6151.610.070.07
DuquesneA102.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA102.232.2372.4172.411.001.00
West VirginiaB121.711.7175.7675.760.880.88
LongwoodBSth1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
Old DominionCUSA1.661.6664.7164.710.490.49
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
StetsonASun1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
James MadisonCAA1.631.6363.3363.330.440.44
PresbyterianBSth1.611.6129.6329.63-0.66-0.66
CaliforniaP121.611.6171.8871.880.710.71
Northern IowaMVC1.611.6165.6265.620.500.50
FloridaSEC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Texas TechB121.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Wake ForestACC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
TCUB120.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
High PointBSth0.160.1664.2964.290.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Iowa St.B120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
KansasB120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
OklahomaB120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
CampbellBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1157.6957.690.020.02
MaineAE0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
PennIvy0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02