live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:47
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1356.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Radford (154.0)BSthH64-46W100%0.0
11-18Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA63-57L0%0.0
11-22High Point (89.0)BSthH80-56W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA84-72L0%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA55-50L0%0.0
12-3William & Mary (93.0)CAAH68-67W100%0.0
12-7James Madison (148.0)CAAA51-46L0%0.0
12-13Howard (255.0)MEACH54-41W100%0.0
12-18South Alabama (275.0)SBH65-54W100%0.0
12-20Pepperdine (134.0)WCCN63-65W100%0.0
12-23IUPUI (260.0)SumH57-53W100%0.0
12-28Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH63-65L0%0.0
12-31Northeastern (86.0)CAAH57-58L0%0.0
1-3Davidson (35.0)A10A81-67L0%0.0
1-8George Mason (221.0)A10H75-65W100%0.0
1-11St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H60-41W100%0.0
1-15George Washington (84.0)A10A73-70L0%0.0
1-17Davidson (35.0)A10H89-63W100%0.0
1-24Dayton (32.0)A10A63-60L0%0.0
1-28Duquesne (222.0)A10H86-55W100%0.0
1-31VCU (15.0)A10A55-64W100%0.0
2-5La Salle (101.0)A10A64-62L0%0.0
2-8Rhode Island (66.0)A10H74-79L0%0.0
2-11Fordham (238.0)A10H73-71W100%0.0
2-14George Mason (221.0)A10A71-67L0%0.0
2-18St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A56-71W100%0.0
2-21George Washington (84.0)A10H56-48W100%0.0
2-25VCU (15.0)A10H67-63W100%0.0
2-28Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A57-63W100%0.0
3-4Massachusetts (80.0)A10A53-56W100%0.0
3-7Saint Louis (272.0)A10H67-51W100%0.0
3-13VCU (15.0)A10N67-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.1326.1358.5958.594.494.49
VCUA105.425.4278.1278.123.053.05
DavidsonA103.833.8378.5778.572.192.19
George MasonA103.813.8125.0025.00-1.90-1.90
George WashingtonA103.803.8064.5264.521.101.10
St. BonaventureA103.693.6962.0762.070.890.89
DuquesneA102.302.3037.9337.93-0.56-0.56
DaytonA102.302.3075.0075.001.151.15
FordhamA102.272.2731.0331.03-0.86-0.86
Saint LouisA102.232.2333.3333.33-0.74-0.74
La SalleA102.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA102.212.2143.3343.33-0.29-0.29
MassachusettsA102.212.2154.8454.840.210.21
Rhode IslandA102.202.2068.9768.970.830.83
William & MaryCAA1.761.7662.0762.070.420.42
HowardMEAC1.741.7446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
James MadisonCAA1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
NortheasternCAA1.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
Old DominionCUSA1.711.7176.6776.670.910.91
Northern IowaMVC1.681.6890.6290.621.371.37
RadfordBSth1.671.6764.2964.290.480.48
High PointBSth1.671.6770.3770.370.680.68
IUPUISum1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
South AlabamaSB1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
PepperdineWCC1.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
North Carolina St.ACC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Wake ForestACC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
VirginiaACC0.310.3190.6290.620.250.25
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.2527.2727.27-0.11-0.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
DelawareCAA0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
DrexelCAA0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.150.1568.5768.570.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
WinthropBSth0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
SienaMAAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
VillanovaBE0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00