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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:106.5
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:104
Current Record:14-10
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1067.90.88%
19-1178.26.60%
18-1290.121.89%
17-13104.033.46%
16-14118.825.40%
15-15134.210.32%
14-16150.61.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13James Madison (80.5)CAAH75-87L0%0.0
11-15Stetson (312.2)ASunH108-85W100%0.0
11-18Wake Forest (134.6)ACCA82-91W100%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (310.6)MEACH89-64W100%0.0
11-26West Virginia (8.9)B12N59-67L0%0.0
11-27California (31.2)P12N90-94W100%0.0
12-1Florida (31.1)SECA76-56L0%0.0
12-5Northern Iowa (99.1)MVCH82-67W100%0.0
12-12Longwood (324.8)BSthH77-59W100%0.0
12-16Old Dominion (162.1)CUSAH77-61W100%0.0
12-22Presbyterian (339.9)BSthH74-44W100%0.0
12-29Texas Tech (44.6)B12A85-70L0%0.0
1-2Saint Joseph's (27.3)A10H73-77L0%0.0
1-5Rhode Island (108.9)A10A77-65L0%0.0
1-10Fordham (195.3)A10A82-93W100%0.0
1-13La Salle (259.6)A10H83-61W100%0.0
1-16VCU (45.5)A10H89-94L0%0.0
1-25Davidson (80.8)A10H70-78L0%0.0
1-28George Washington (62.8)A10A90-98W100%0.0
1-31St. Bonaventure (38.9)A10A84-68L0%0.0
2-3George Mason (180.1)A10H74-78L0%0.0
2-6Massachusetts (182.6)A10H69-53W100%0.0
2-10Saint Louis (212.2)A10A53-67W100%0.0
2-13Fordham (195.3)A10H71-67W100%0.0
2-16Davidson (80.8)A10A0-046%-1.2
2-19VCU (45.5)A10A0-021%-8.9
2-24George Washington (62.8)A10H0-057%2.0
2-27Duquesne (117.6)A10A0-053%0.9
3-1Dayton (11.7)A10H0-041%-2.4
3-5George Mason (180.1)A10A0-070%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.1426.1253.5753.811.871.99
George MasonA102.654.0633.3333.95-0.88-1.30
VCUA102.624.0070.8370.221.091.62
DavidsonA102.473.9957.1454.060.350.32
George WashingtonA102.533.9875.0073.811.261.89
FordhamA104.553.8955.0054.300.460.33
Saint Joseph'sA102.752.3783.3380.841.831.46
Rhode IslandA102.622.3454.1754.180.220.20
DuquesneA100.402.3460.8756.540.090.31
Saint LouisA102.432.3334.7832.98-0.74-0.79
MassachusettsA102.532.3145.4543.77-0.23-0.29
La SalleA102.482.3119.0520.84-1.53-1.35
DaytonA100.502.2887.5084.550.371.58
St. BonaventureA102.522.2872.7371.101.150.96
West VirginiaB122.301.8479.1777.771.341.02
LongwoodBSth2.171.7821.7423.52-1.23-0.95
Old DominionCUSA2.211.7758.3361.590.370.41
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.171.7631.8235.61-0.79-0.51
StetsonASun2.171.7522.7326.65-1.18-0.82
James MadisonCAA2.171.7568.0068.910.780.66
CaliforniaP122.131.7370.8367.830.890.62
PresbyterianBSth2.131.7323.8123.51-1.11-0.91
FloridaSEC2.171.7262.5061.670.540.40
Northern IowaMVC2.121.7260.0060.610.430.37
Texas TechB122.121.7260.8756.920.460.24
Wake ForestACC2.081.6741.6740.50-0.35-0.32
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2248.0043.71-0.01-0.03
UCFAmer0.220.2047.8343.65-0.01-0.03
VirginiaACC0.210.1980.0077.220.120.10
LibertyBSth0.180.1837.5038.73-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1841.6744.46-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.170.1750.0051.760.000.01
North FloridaASun0.180.1760.0061.790.040.04
High PointBSth0.130.1559.0960.710.020.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1547.8351.11-0.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1450.0051.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.130.1464.0060.170.040.03
Iowa St.B120.170.1472.0069.230.070.05
Kansas St.B120.170.1456.0054.680.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.170.1454.1754.540.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.160.1452.0052.860.010.01
TCUB120.170.1444.0039.06-0.02-0.03
MississippiSEC0.170.1464.0061.040.050.03
CampbellBSth0.180.1234.7834.91-0.06-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1262.5063.540.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1259.0958.530.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1245.8346.51-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1218.1823.04-0.12-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1262.5060.760.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.130.1283.3378.350.090.07
PittsburghACC0.050.1272.7367.670.020.04
HofstraCAA0.170.1168.0067.350.060.04
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1140.0043.15-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.140.1145.8347.12-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1147.8345.05-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.090.1164.0065.380.020.03
DrexelCAA0.170.1112.5015.98-0.13-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1152.0052.460.010.01
PennIvy0.130.1140.0039.62-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.1148.0050.99-0.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.1165.2264.480.020.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.1152.0050.510.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.1160.0060.860.020.02
BaylorB120.130.1170.8365.330.050.03
DukeACC0.080.1176.0073.090.040.05
KansasB120.130.1183.3381.420.080.07
OklahomaB120.090.1183.3380.440.060.07
TexasB120.130.1164.0061.080.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.1152.0048.970.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1166.6763.280.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.1173.0871.580.040.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.0926.0926.99-0.07-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.140.0925.0024.15-0.07-0.05
The CitadelSC0.140.0929.1729.25-0.06-0.04
WinthropBSth0.130.0968.1865.870.050.03
MaineAE0.140.0932.0031.16-0.05-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0928.0028.34-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.130.0960.0059.840.030.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0929.1726.62-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.0950.0051.400.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0954.1755.060.010.01
FIUCUSA0.130.0941.6743.11-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0940.0039.42-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.090.0923.0825.88-0.05-0.04
Miami FLACC0.130.0882.6177.560.090.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0832.0033.77-0.01-0.03
LafayettePat0.090.0820.0020.81-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.0847.6250.56-0.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0848.0047.35-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0874.0773.100.060.04
Wichita St.MVC0.120.0870.8373.510.050.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0828.0031.38-0.06-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0823.0823.86-0.07-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0856.0054.070.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0864.0061.350.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0830.4331.63-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.040.0848.0045.86-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0820.8319.90-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.130.0870.8368.550.050.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0843.4844.22-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0828.0030.05-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0869.5769.090.030.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0830.4332.18-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.0045.69-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0661.5456.600.020.01
LipscombASun0.050.0630.7732.74-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.090.0657.6957.310.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0669.5767.210.040.02
FurmanSC0.050.0657.6956.200.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0612.0012.46-0.07-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0656.5256.100.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0650.0050.880.000.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0624.0023.69-0.05-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0669.5771.830.040.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0634.7836.09-0.01-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0623.8124.32-0.02-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0628.5735.02-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0665.2264.150.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0648.1547.52-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.090.0638.4641.33-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0665.2262.390.030.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0688.0086.620.070.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0634.7836.55-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.0064.130.030.02
BrownIvy0.090.0628.5728.84-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0613.0414.58-0.06-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0618.1825.29-0.06-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0645.8351.18-0.010.00
VermontAE0.090.0652.0054.840.000.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0612.0012.00-0.06-0.04
DelawareCAA0.040.0624.0024.18-0.02-0.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0620.0022.69-0.05-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0648.0048.33-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0672.0072.970.020.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0685.7183.660.060.04
LouisvilleACC0.090.0676.0073.910.040.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0645.8343.81-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0640.0039.49-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0626.3232.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0652.0049.600.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0672.0070.180.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0678.2675.550.050.03
XavierBE0.040.0688.0084.240.030.04
AlabamaSEC0.040.0562.5059.270.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0541.6741.41-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0573.0870.170.040.02
UCLAP120.040.0554.1753.010.000.00
Washington St.P120.040.0534.7831.61-0.01-0.02
ArizonaP120.040.0580.0078.720.020.03
Arizona St.P120.040.0556.0053.620.010.00
ArmyPat0.040.0556.0055.430.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0572.0066.650.040.02
DePaulBE0.040.0533.3333.86-0.01-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0560.8757.660.010.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0576.0074.450.020.03
OregonP120.080.0576.0074.790.040.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0560.8757.820.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0513.0418.03-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0576.9275.980.040.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0543.4844.13-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0570.8370.070.030.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0570.8368.070.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0520.0019.75-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.080.0550.0046.650.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.040.0562.5063.810.010.01
WisconsinB100.040.0564.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0556.0057.240.010.01
VMISC0.050.0319.0519.66-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0348.0048.31-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.9139.87-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0372.0069.300.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0362.5059.920.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0333.3332.89-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0379.1779.050.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.42-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.54-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.060.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.340.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0332.0033.46-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2264.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0340.9141.22-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0366.6766.950.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0362.5063.370.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0335.0039.98-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0386.9686.020.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0323.0825.64-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0357.6958.190.010.00
BucknellPat0.040.0350.0052.720.000.00
BYUWCC0.040.0369.2371.010.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0323.8129.48-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0384.0085.050.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0352.1751.940.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0365.3863.470.010.01
HartfordAE0.040.0324.0024.54-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0336.3638.01-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.820.020.01
IowaB100.000.0379.1778.810.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0333.3331.74-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0358.3360.350.000.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0325.0027.21-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0319.2321.27-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0380.7781.920.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0344.4447.27-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0360.0060.920.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.040.0342.8646.51-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0344.0043.30-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0360.0062.090.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0329.6330.87-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0320.0022.33-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0375.0075.150.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0312.5014.81-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0340.0043.52-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0373.6876.550.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0326.0928.44-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0334.7834.89-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0337.5034.54-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0325.0026.16-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0352.3851.410.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.59-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0372.0068.870.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0355.5652.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0358.3358.480.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0347.8349.74-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0373.9172.350.020.01
MarylandB100.040.0384.0080.600.030.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.510.020.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0336.0032.69-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.040.0365.3865.340.010.01
NebraskaB100.040.0353.8551.650.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0330.4332.19-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0375.0077.280.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0382.6181.730.030.02
SeattleWAC0.040.0345.4544.05-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0383.3378.690.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0328.5730.34-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0372.0072.950.020.01
UABCUSA0.040.0380.0078.010.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0375.0071.170.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0356.0055.750.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0312.5012.74-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0379.1779.630.020.02
WashingtonP120.000.0360.0059.040.000.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0341.6741.64-0.01-0.00