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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:75.0
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:58
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1475.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Delaware (65.0)CAAH71-69W100%0.0
11-11Belmont (57.0)OVCH69-61W100%0.0
11-16Minnesota (50.0)B10H59-74L0%0.0
11-19Hofstra (277.0)CAAH74-63W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina (25.0)ACCN72-82L0%0.0
11-24Fairfield (289.0)MAACN47-68W100%0.0
11-27Air Force (251.0)MWCA60-83W100%0.0
11-30James Madison (233.0)CAAH68-53W100%0.0
12-4William & Mary (119.0)CAAA60-71W100%0.0
12-7Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA76-66L0%0.0
12-14Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH71-49W100%0.0
12-22Ohio (87.0)MACH69-70L0%0.0
12-28Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH67-58W100%0.0
12-31Northeastern (222.0)CAAA66-70W100%0.0
1-4Florida (1.0)SECA67-58L0%0.0
1-8St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A84-70L0%0.0
1-11Fordham (226.0)A10A74-77W100%0.0
1-18Dayton (43.0)A10H73-64W100%0.0
1-22Massachusetts (23.0)A10H58-55W100%0.0
1-25Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H77-62W100%0.0
1-29Saint Louis (27.0)A10A77-57L0%0.0
2-1VCU (13.0)A10A81-70L0%0.0
2-5St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H64-62W100%0.0
2-12Duquesne (187.0)A10A58-75W100%0.0
2-15Fordham (226.0)A10H82-70W100%0.0
2-18George Washington (29.0)A10H65-73L0%0.0
2-22La Salle (98.0)A10H62-49W100%0.0
2-26George Mason (164.0)A10A69-60L0%0.0
3-1Rhode Island (155.0)A10A66-43L0%0.0
3-6VCU (13.0)A10H50-56L0%0.0
3-8Dayton (43.0)A10A60-48L0%0.0
3-13Duquesne (187.0)A10N76-64W100%0.0
3-14VCU (13.0)A10N71-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.1126.1156.6456.643.473.47
VCUA105.125.1274.1974.192.482.48
St. BonaventureA103.633.6353.3353.330.240.24
FordhamA103.603.6034.4834.48-1.12-1.12
DaytonA103.563.5670.9770.971.491.49
DuquesneA103.533.5344.4444.44-0.39-0.39
Saint Joseph'sA102.202.2075.0075.001.101.10
George WashingtonA102.202.2074.1974.191.061.06
Saint LouisA102.182.1880.0080.001.311.31
George MasonA102.142.1433.3333.33-0.71-0.71
La SalleA102.112.1150.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA102.112.1177.4277.421.161.16
Rhode IslandA102.112.1140.0040.00-0.42-0.42
DelawareCAA1.821.8275.7675.760.940.94
NortheasternCAA1.821.8235.4835.48-0.53-0.53
HofstraCAA1.771.7731.2531.25-0.67-0.67
William & MaryCAA1.751.7563.3363.330.470.47
James MadisonCAA1.701.7036.6736.67-0.45-0.45
Old DominionCUSA1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC1.651.6574.1974.190.800.80
Wake ForestACC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC1.581.5870.9770.970.660.66
FairfieldMAAC1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
OhioMAC1.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
Air ForceMWC1.521.5237.0437.04-0.39-0.39
Coppin St.MEAC1.521.5236.6736.67-0.40-0.40
FloridaSEC1.521.5293.9493.941.331.33
MinnesotaB101.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
TowsonCAA0.310.3167.7467.740.110.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.310.3123.3323.33-0.16-0.16
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.2841.9441.94-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.280.2853.3353.330.020.02
SienaMAAC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Penn St.B100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
HamptonMEAC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
WinthropBSth0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
WisconsinB100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Notre DameACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
WagnerNEC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
VMIBSth0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0441.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0293.1093.100.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00