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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Richmond

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:135.3
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:101
Current Record:12-12
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC Record:9-6
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1282.40.08%
18-1392.91.08%
17-14106.38.44%
16-15120.123.37%
15-16134.633.97%
14-17150.524.11%
13-18167.37.91%
12-19184.11.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Richmond.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11American (150.9)PatH66-56W100%0.0
11-14Davidson (64.0)SCA74-61L0%0.0
11-17Hampton (307.2)MEACH72-51W100%0.0
11-19Sacred Heart (242.3)NECH83-58W100%0.0
11-22Illinois (39.4)B10N70-61L0%0.0
11-23Rutgers (141.7)BEN53-58W100%0.0
11-30William & Mary (304.7)CAAA61-92W100%0.0
12-3Wake Forest (171.6)ACCA62-70W100%0.0
12-9Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)CAAA73-51L0%0.0
12-14Iona (46.0)MAACH79-88L0%0.0
12-17Bucknell (71.1)PatA79-65L0%0.0
12-20Old Dominion (126.1)CAAH90-82W100%0.0
12-23UCLA (109.2)P12A71-63L0%0.0
12-28Liberty (309.6)BSthH77-61W100%0.0
12-30NC Greensboro (256.3)SCH78-58W100%0.0
1-4Charlotte (140.3)A10A75-70L0%0.0
1-7Rhode Island (250.6)A10A53-70W100%0.0
1-14Temple (24.4)A10H76-65W100%0.0
1-18George Washington (196.4)A10A83-65L0%0.0
1-21Massachusetts (76.4)A10H68-79L0%0.0
1-25Fordham (243.2)A10H102-58W100%0.0
1-28St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10A62-47L0%0.0
2-1Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10H60-70L0%0.0
2-4Duquesne (79.5)A10A81-72L0%0.0
2-8La Salle (69.1)A10H0-045%-1.5
2-11George Washington (196.4)A10H0-079%8.8
2-15St. Louis (32.0)A10A0-010%-13.9
2-18Charlotte (140.3)A10H0-068%5.1
2-22Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10A0-024%-7.6
2-25Xavier (55.8)A10A0-024%-7.7
2-29Dayton (77.1)A10H0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Richmond's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Richmond's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Richmond.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RichmondA1026.0926.0050.0047.420.00-1.34
Saint Joseph'sA102.413.7260.8760.740.520.80
George WashingtonA102.363.7131.8230.05-0.86-1.48
CharlotteA102.363.7147.6248.22-0.11-0.13
La SalleA100.362.1670.8369.260.150.83
MassachusettsA102.412.1572.7367.501.090.75
XavierA100.282.1365.2263.320.090.57
DaytonA100.282.1360.8761.450.060.49
FordhamA102.452.1342.8635.74-0.35-0.61
TempleA102.262.1380.9577.651.401.18
St. BonaventureA102.312.1257.8957.550.370.32
Rhode IslandA102.372.1021.7421.29-1.34-1.21
DuquesneA102.272.1057.1454.790.320.20
St. LouisA100.282.1077.2777.240.161.14
William & MaryCAA2.391.8313.0413.91-1.77-1.32
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.301.8079.1777.331.340.98
HamptonMEAC2.351.7838.1039.81-0.56-0.36
AmericanPat2.221.7568.1866.070.810.56
DavidsonSC2.221.7275.0075.901.110.89
Old DominionCAA2.171.7262.5060.230.540.35
BucknellPat2.131.6972.7374.110.970.82
LibertyBSth2.221.6928.5728.21-0.95-0.74
IonaMAAC2.171.6978.2679.421.231.00
NC GreensboroSC2.171.6736.3634.66-0.59-0.51
RutgersBE2.171.6752.1748.380.09-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC2.171.6745.8347.41-0.18-0.09
IllinoisB102.141.6471.4363.240.920.43
Wake ForestACC2.081.6450.0045.160.00-0.16
UCLAP122.081.6152.3855.300.100.17
NC WilmingtonCAA0.310.2739.1336.10-0.07-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.350.2640.0040.18-0.07-0.05
George MasonCAA0.260.2176.0072.500.140.10
TowsonCAA0.260.214.005.26-0.24-0.19
LehighPat0.230.1973.9174.910.110.10
Loyola MDMAAC0.230.1977.2773.450.130.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.1942.1149.81-0.04-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.220.1966.6769.690.070.07
VillanovaBE0.140.1945.4546.08-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.210.1847.8348.56-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.130.1865.2263.740.040.05
LafayettePat0.130.1643.4842.95-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.180.1665.0060.020.050.03
St. Francis PANEC0.230.1621.7422.76-0.13-0.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1625.0037.58-0.07-0.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.190.1654.5556.840.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.180.1630.4326.44-0.07-0.08
Georgia TechACC0.130.1639.1342.12-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.170.1647.8350.65-0.010.00
DrexelCAA0.130.1679.1778.100.070.09
HofstraCAA0.210.1632.0035.39-0.08-0.05
College of CharlestonSC0.140.1458.3359.980.020.03
ColgatePat0.180.1430.4329.50-0.07-0.06
DukeACC0.190.1486.3683.090.140.09
SienaMAAC0.230.1445.4545.55-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.140.1440.9141.72-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1440.9142.05-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.180.1444.4441.71-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.140.1495.8392.010.130.11
HowardMEAC0.230.1318.1822.22-0.14-0.07
HarvardIvy0.140.1390.4887.910.110.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1368.0070.030.050.05
PurdueB100.140.1365.2260.580.040.03
Boston UniversityAE0.130.1348.0051.88-0.010.00
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1127.2735.02-0.07-0.03
RadfordBSth0.140.118.7013.10-0.12-0.08
SamfordSC0.090.1133.3335.26-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.140.119.5211.44-0.11-0.09
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.1140.0041.30-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.090.1159.0957.930.020.02
ElonSC0.090.1150.0047.590.00-0.01
NavyPat0.090.119.5213.19-0.07-0.08
Virginia Military InstBSth0.090.1145.0044.15-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.190.1136.8441.45-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.1138.8943.93-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1147.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.1120.0019.96-0.05-0.07
St. John'sBE0.090.1143.4840.28-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.090.1175.0074.610.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.1135.2939.85-0.01-0.02
MinnesotaB100.140.1169.5761.310.050.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.170.1156.5257.150.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.1154.5554.300.010.01
MarylandACC0.180.1159.0950.820.030.00
Penn St.B100.140.1141.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1045.4545.70-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.130.1070.8371.050.050.04
NebraskaB100.140.1052.3846.680.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.130.1034.7834.48-0.04-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0940.9143.66-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.140.0947.6248.83-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.140.0835.0039.29-0.04-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.140.0834.7837.24-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0869.5765.870.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0817.3919.81-0.09-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.140.0837.5041.54-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0870.8364.420.060.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.0868.4266.450.040.03
High PointBSth0.140.0831.8232.75-0.05-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0828.5734.20-0.04-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.050.0869.5771.510.020.04
Virginia TechACC0.140.0856.5255.200.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.0880.9577.380.080.04
ArizonaP120.090.0866.6768.550.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0868.0069.070.050.03
MaristMAAC0.090.0834.7833.43-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0869.5766.540.020.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.0872.7371.710.060.04
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0840.9142.96-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.090.0860.0062.490.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0830.4331.43-0.04-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.040.0830.0034.15-0.02-0.03
BrownIvy0.130.0827.2723.80-0.06-0.04
MonmouthNEC0.130.0828.0028.91-0.06-0.03
PittsburghBE0.090.0860.8758.160.020.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0837.5038.52-0.01-0.02
TexasB120.140.0860.8761.370.030.02
UABCUSA0.090.0840.9139.82-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0872.7366.810.020.03
MissouriB120.130.0891.3087.180.110.06
YaleIvy0.130.0872.2263.190.060.02
Notre DameBE0.090.0865.2262.650.030.02
South FloridaBE0.130.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0656.0055.650.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.090.0668.1867.640.030.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0634.7834.61-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0637.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0650.0051.730.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0634.7838.77-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.100.0678.2678.390.050.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0682.6180.420.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0669.5765.150.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.060.004.02-0.09-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0652.3852.860.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.068.7011.67-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0661.9067.230.010.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0641.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0581.8280.430.060.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0559.0957.760.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.090.0583.3384.760.060.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0534.7832.06-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0568.1867.910.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0514.2917.17-0.06-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0519.0521.29-0.06-0.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0513.6416.35-0.06-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0526.0928.60-0.04-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0547.3752.87-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0533.3335.97-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0524.0024.86-0.02-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0550.0048.360.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0572.7368.280.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0568.1869.680.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0525.0025.13-0.02-0.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.040.0521.7424.58-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0569.5768.290.020.02
UtahP120.090.0518.1815.01-0.06-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0550.0048.170.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.040.0568.1869.100.020.02
CincinnatiBE0.040.0569.5765.470.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.490.030.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.0533.3338.38-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0526.3229.71-0.04-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.058.3310.86-0.00-0.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.090.0571.4366.600.040.02
CreightonMVC0.040.0587.5085.410.030.04
HartfordAE0.040.0517.3920.97-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0562.5062.060.020.01
LipscombASun0.090.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0562.5061.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0561.9055.140.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0586.9685.460.030.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0556.5250.270.010.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0556.5255.950.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0566.6768.050.030.02
TulsaCUSA0.040.0560.8759.050.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.090.0565.2265.170.030.02
WisconsinB100.050.0575.0073.970.020.02
Texas A&MB120.050.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0330.0037.30-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0381.8281.030.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0359.0954.700.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0321.7421.70-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0356.5253.100.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0331.8242.13-0.00-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0338.1042.78-0.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.000.0350.0050.800.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
DenverSB0.040.0370.8372.230.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0319.0522.37-0.00-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.000.0333.3337.16-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
HawaiiWAC0.000.0357.1453.120.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0330.0030.06-0.00-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.000.0335.0035.31-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0359.0959.720.010.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.03100.0094.550.000.02
NevadaWAC0.000.0380.9576.420.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0352.3857.860.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.000.0354.5556.090.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0381.8276.800.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.040.0368.1863.990.020.01
DePaulBE0.040.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.038.7012.13-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.6177.630.030.01
IndianaB100.000.0375.0075.780.000.01
IowaB100.000.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0395.8392.570.040.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.040.0359.0957.280.010.00
LouisvilleBE0.040.0378.2672.660.020.01
MaineAE0.040.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0379.1775.980.000.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0354.1757.200.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0382.6184.570.030.02