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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:324.0
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:140
Current Record:4-25
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:1-16
Expected Conf Record:1-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-25324.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Temple (42.0)A10A77-63L0%0.0
11-22Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCN54-36L0%0.0
11-23Drake (143.0)MVCN77-66L0%0.0
11-25Drexel (206.0)CAAN47-55L0%0.0
12-1Houston Baptist (310.0)GWCH61-53W100%0.0
12-12Long Island (179.0)NECH70-97L0%0.0
12-15Hartford (187.0)AEH51-58L0%0.0
12-19Chicago St. (320.0)GWCH63-60W100%0.0
12-22Texas Christian (238.0)B12H63-65L0%0.0
12-29Texas (116.0)B12A57-41L0%0.0
1-5Harvard (93.0)IvyA92-62L0%0.0
1-9Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH52-75L0%0.0
1-12Tulsa (127.0)CUSAA64-51L0%0.0
1-16Memphis (12.0)CUSAH51-77L0%0.0
1-19New Orleans (346.0)indH95-71W100%0.0
1-23Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA78-67L0%0.0
1-26Tulane (175.0)CUSAA73-66L0%0.0
1-30Houston (197.0)CUSAH79-69W100%0.0
2-2East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH63-79L0%0.0
2-6Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA65-53L0%0.0
2-9Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAH39-61L0%0.0
2-13Marshall (208.0)CUSAA71-70L0%0.0
2-16UAB (144.0)CUSAA80-57L0%0.0
2-23Tulane (175.0)CUSAH64-89L0%0.0
2-27Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAA67-55L0%0.0
3-2Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAH56-67L0%0.0
3-6Houston (197.0)CUSAA84-62L0%0.0
3-9Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH71-77L0%0.0
3-13Houston (197.0)CUSAN72-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.2226.228.898.89-21.56-21.56
HoustonCUSA5.895.8959.2659.261.091.09
Texas El PasoCUSA4.264.2653.3353.330.280.28
TulaneCUSA4.234.2353.3353.330.280.28
TulsaCUSA4.204.2048.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Southern MethodistCUSA4.174.1741.3841.38-0.72-0.72
MemphisCUSA2.492.4987.8887.881.881.88
UABCUSA2.432.4345.1645.16-0.23-0.23
Southern MississippiCUSA2.422.4270.9770.971.021.02
MarshallCUSA2.372.3736.6736.67-0.63-0.63
East CarolinaCUSA2.362.3652.0052.000.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA2.312.3160.7160.710.490.49
Texas ChristianB122.032.0330.0030.00-0.81-0.81
Chicago St.GWC1.961.9625.9325.93-0.94-0.94
Houston BaptistGWC1.951.9540.7440.74-0.36-0.36
TexasB121.811.8148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
New Orleansind1.791.7919.0519.05-1.11-1.11
Georgia TechACC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy1.751.7565.3865.380.540.54
DrakeMVC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
DrexelCAA1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
HartfordAE1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Long IslandNEC1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
TempleA101.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.370.3742.8642.86-0.05-0.05
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.230.2348.0048.00-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.220.2219.3519.35-0.13-0.13
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
CreightonMVC0.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
San Jose St.WAC0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
WagnerNEC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Utah ValleyGWC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Iowa St.B120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
West VirginiaB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Kansas St.B120.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Oral RobertsSlnd0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.CAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
GramblingSWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
BaylorB120.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
XavierA100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
VermontAE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
CharlotteA100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
FordhamA100.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
Old DominionCAA0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
OregonP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Texas St.WAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
La SalleA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0685.1985.190.040.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.03-0.03
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
TroySB0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01