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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:167.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:288
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11167.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13James Madison (255.0)CAAA70-94W100%0.0
11-16Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH68-71L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA87-100W100%0.0
11-21Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH83-78W100%0.0
11-23Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH80-58W100%0.0
11-26Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA79-87W100%0.0
11-30Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH90-77W100%0.0
12-3Texas Tech (124.0)B12A85-84L0%0.0
12-10Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH70-63W100%0.0
12-17Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA83-73L0%0.0
12-19Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH100-93W100%0.0
12-31Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA62-56L0%0.0
1-2Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA70-89W100%0.0
1-5Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH77-80L0%0.0
1-7UAB (201.0)CUSAH81-88L0%0.0
1-14North Texas (339.0)CUSAH101-79W100%0.0
1-19Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA74-64L0%0.0
1-21Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA58-61W100%0.0
1-26Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH72-80L0%0.0
1-28Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH84-67W100%0.0
2-4North Texas (339.0)CUSAA80-95W100%0.0
2-9FIU (338.0)CUSAA78-89W100%0.0
2-11Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA75-81W100%0.0
2-16UTSA (264.0)CUSAH80-68W100%0.0
2-18UTEP (222.0)CUSAH71-79L0%0.0
2-23Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH72-71W100%0.0
2-25Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH88-81W100%0.0
3-2Marshall (112.0)CUSAA88-89W100%0.0
3-4Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA79-72L0%0.0
3-8Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAN86-75W100%0.0
3-9UTEP (222.0)CUSAN86-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.2726.2764.0564.057.387.38
Southern MissCUSA5.505.5026.9226.92-2.54-2.54
North TexasCUSA4.004.0023.0823.08-2.15-2.15
UTEPCUSA3.983.9841.3841.38-0.69-0.69
Louisiana TechCUSA3.983.9868.9768.971.511.51
Old DominionCUSA3.923.9258.6258.620.680.68
CharlotteCUSA3.913.9144.4444.44-0.43-0.43
MarshallCUSA2.492.4957.5857.580.380.38
UTSACUSA2.442.4440.0040.00-0.49-0.49
UABCUSA2.392.3948.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.352.3587.5087.501.771.77
Western KentuckyCUSA2.332.3345.1645.16-0.23-0.23
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.302.3029.6329.63-0.94-0.94
FIUCUSA2.282.2817.8617.86-1.46-1.46
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.881.8853.5753.570.130.13
Incarnate WordSlnd1.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Northwestern St.Slnd1.781.7837.5037.50-0.45-0.45
James MadisonCAA1.771.7729.0329.03-0.74-0.74
Houston BaptistSlnd1.761.7652.0052.000.070.07
Texas TechB121.761.7654.8454.840.170.17
Delaware St.MEAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Montana St.BSky1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Nebraska OmahaSum1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
PittsburghACC1.661.6646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.350.3546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.300.3056.6756.670.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.270.2760.7160.710.060.06
LamarSlnd0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2137.0437.04-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.1919.2319.23-0.11-0.11
LSUSEC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.166.906.90-0.13-0.13
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.160.1636.0036.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
South DakotaSum0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01