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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:297.8
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:187
Current Record:6-16
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16204.00.01%
12-17238.50.15%
11-18257.21.82%
10-19273.69.08%
9-20288.126.15%
8-21300.534.20%
7-22312.223.02%
6-23321.75.56%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13California (35.8)P12A97-65L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (230.8)WCCA80-54L0%0.0
11-19Oregon St. (48.4)P12H69-77L0%0.0
11-22Fresno St. (115.3)MWCH65-82L0%0.0
11-25Lamar (335.9)SlndH92-84W100%0.0
11-27UC Riverside (264.2)BWH87-81W100%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (99.4)SBH74-92L0%0.0
12-2Houston Baptist (204.0)SlndA77-73L0%0.0
12-19New Mexico (104.5)MWCA89-90W100%0.0
12-22South Alabama (250.5)SBA74-67L0%0.0
12-29Incarnate Word (186.5)SlndH76-82L0%0.0
1-1UTEP (221.5)CUSAA61-60L0%0.0
1-3UTSA (342.6)CUSAA85-80L0%0.0
1-9North Texas (298.7)CUSAA85-74L0%0.0
1-14Western Kentucky (179.4)CUSAH83-73W100%0.0
1-16Marshall (125.5)CUSAH90-94L0%0.0
1-21UAB (89.5)CUSAA82-70L0%0.0
1-23Middle Tennessee (86.1)CUSAA87-73L0%0.0
1-30North Texas (298.7)CUSAH95-87W100%0.0
2-4Louisiana Tech (119.6)CUSAH78-90L0%0.0
2-6Southern Miss (296.8)CUSAH72-65W100%0.0
2-11Charlotte (232.8)CUSAA102-73L0%0.0
2-13Old Dominion (141.8)CUSAA0-06%-17.0
2-18Florida Atlantic (277.2)CUSAH0-061%3.1
2-20FIU (242.9)CUSAH0-042%-2.3
2-25Southern Miss (296.8)CUSAA0-038%-3.2
2-27Louisiana Tech (119.6)CUSAA0-011%-13.4
3-3Charlotte (232.8)CUSAH0-041%-2.4
3-5Old Dominion (141.8)CUSAH0-017%-10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.2326.1623.4024.22-13.95-13.49
North TexasCUSA5.004.1830.0031.17-2.00-1.57
Louisiana TechCUSA2.744.1371.4368.731.171.55
Southern MissCUSA2.724.1231.5831.84-1.00-1.50
CharlotteCUSA2.584.0934.7839.76-0.78-0.84
Old DominionCUSA0.504.0958.3361.410.080.93
UTEPCUSA2.782.4752.1752.630.120.13
UTSACUSA2.732.439.099.85-2.23-1.96
MarshallCUSA2.672.4347.8349.52-0.12-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA2.672.4247.6247.72-0.13-0.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.772.4066.6766.530.920.79
UABCUSA2.732.3782.6179.121.781.38
FIUCUSA0.502.3739.1342.43-0.11-0.36
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.502.3726.0927.50-0.24-1.07
UT ArlingtonSB2.531.9366.6770.350.840.79
LamarSlnd2.491.9231.5830.33-0.92-0.75
Houston BaptistSlnd2.381.8947.3747.97-0.13-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd2.381.8852.9450.500.140.02
South AlabamaSB2.431.8833.3334.02-0.81-0.60
Fresno St.MWC2.431.8461.9060.180.580.38
CaliforniaP122.391.8265.2263.600.730.50
UC RiversideBW2.441.8247.8343.08-0.11-0.25
New MexicoMWC2.321.7860.8762.730.510.45
San FranciscoWCC2.371.7850.0047.270.00-0.10
Oregon St.P122.321.7861.9057.250.550.26
Georgia St.SB0.360.3055.0053.660.040.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.370.2845.0049.16-0.04-0.00
TroySB0.310.2722.7324.37-0.17-0.14
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.280.2335.0034.87-0.08-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.2372.2275.710.070.12
Nicholls St.Slnd0.390.2218.1821.06-0.25-0.13
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.2076.1972.410.120.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.189.0912.25-0.17-0.13
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1860.0062.260.030.04
Texas St.SB0.200.1840.0038.87-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1725.0028.14-0.08-0.08
MemphisAmer0.160.1558.3359.310.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.1573.0872.610.120.07
OregonP120.200.1579.1777.220.120.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.1545.4551.69-0.010.00
NevadaMWC0.150.1557.1455.350.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.1565.2268.610.070.05
UNLVMWC0.250.1452.1755.080.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.200.1469.5770.090.080.06
WyomingMWC0.190.1443.4842.54-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1322.2231.13-0.07-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.230.1323.8129.52-0.12-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1250.0054.220.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1241.6741.18-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.160.1256.0053.630.020.01
PurdueB100.110.1280.0077.900.070.07
ColoradoP120.200.1270.8365.570.080.04
StanfordP120.200.1247.6244.07-0.01-0.01
USCP120.100.1275.0071.140.050.05
UtahP120.200.1270.8368.530.080.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1286.3684.240.110.08
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1240.9138.83-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.150.1228.5734.10-0.06-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1242.8641.32-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1245.4549.06-0.01-0.00
ArizonaP120.150.1280.0078.730.090.07
Washington St.P120.090.1234.7831.64-0.03-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.100.1243.4837.80-0.01-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1223.8122.85-0.08-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.090.1247.6249.27-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.1162.5060.140.010.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.1141.6739.50-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.180.1026.3232.42-0.08-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1017.6526.60-0.11-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1014.2924.87-0.13-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0952.1753.440.000.01
PacificWCC0.100.0923.8125.99-0.05-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.0958.3360.910.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0933.3332.04-0.05-0.03
BelmontOVC0.150.0968.0066.640.060.03
BYUWCC0.150.0968.0070.260.050.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0981.8281.780.060.06
UCLAP120.050.0954.1752.980.000.01
CreightonBE0.150.0964.0062.070.040.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0950.0052.880.000.01
SamfordSC0.150.0940.0041.68-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.0933.3330.63-0.05-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0931.8230.08-0.05-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0915.0018.12-0.07-0.06
Ohio St.B100.100.0960.0055.570.020.01
MichiganB100.100.0970.8366.750.040.03
AuburnSEC0.150.0939.1335.44-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0950.0049.320.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0925.0033.24-0.05-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.150.0956.0055.450.020.01
VCUA100.050.0970.8371.030.020.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0954.5552.530.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.100.0960.8760.430.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0950.0050.080.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0972.0071.330.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0819.0525.89-0.03-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0843.4850.67-0.010.00
DavidsonA100.090.0861.9058.180.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0856.5255.820.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0650.0051.280.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0660.8755.980.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.8759.830.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0636.0034.84-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0673.9174.640.050.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0614.2915.47-0.07-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.0048.910.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.0679.1777.510.060.03
PortlandWCC0.100.0638.4638.04-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0630.4328.20-0.02-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0656.0054.080.010.00
IdahoBSky0.100.0656.5255.330.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.940.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0620.0022.24-0.06-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.13-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.340.010.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0050.500.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0614.2920.63-0.07-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0666.6767.660.030.02
DenverSum0.100.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0625.0025.09-0.02-0.03
TexasB120.100.0666.6762.200.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0645.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.120.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0645.4554.18-0.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0685.0083.450.030.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0647.8351.93-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.090.0638.1035.34-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0669.5770.020.020.02
OhioMAC0.090.0665.2263.630.030.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0645.4543.98-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0654.1754.420.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0631.8232.07-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0656.0054.430.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.860.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0629.1733.75-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0682.6177.600.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0623.0823.85-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.08-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0656.0055.750.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0683.3381.270.000.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0668.0064.070.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0668.1867.120.000.02
OklahomaB120.060.0386.9682.620.050.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0340.0045.19-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0325.0023.43-0.03-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0347.6248.05-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.54-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0338.4641.36-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0354.5555.550.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.210.030.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.700.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0334.7834.94-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.070.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.730.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.87-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0324.0026.42-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.4543.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0366.6763.330.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6766.780.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0328.0030.50-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.000.030.02
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.070.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0334.7832.89-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0081.550.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0048.970.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0362.5064.110.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0348.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0057.680.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0314.2914.92-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0322.7327.37-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
UCFAmer0.000.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.840.040.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.690.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.06-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0327.2726.46-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.72-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.06-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0383.3382.090.030.02
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.680.040.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.100.030.02