live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:285.0
Current RPI:350
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:344
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-12136.00.01%
14-13156.80.09%
13-14172.50.37%
12-15197.81.32%
11-16218.13.36%
10-17239.87.34%
9-18259.213.45%
8-19278.218.71%
7-20294.120.48%
6-21307.217.44%
5-22317.411.32%
4-23325.74.51%
3-24331.71.31%
2-25338.40.26%
1-26341.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oregon St. (128.3)P12A67-54L0%0.0
11-19Prairie View A&M (284.9)SWACH68-64W100%0.0
11-22William & Mary (102.8)CAAH65-69L0%0.0
11-27Mercer (243.7)SCN77-71L0%0.0
11-28Washington St. (211.9)P12N76-74L0%0.0
12-3Houston Baptist (272.6)SlndH55-58L0%0.0
12-22Lamar (252.6)SlndA0-037%-3.8
12-29Texas (6.2)B12A0-00%-30.2
1-2UTSA (272.4)CUSAH0-062%3.7
1-4UTEP (70.6)CUSAH0-021%-9.5
1-10North Texas (246.7)CUSAH0-060%3.0
1-15Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAA0-05%-19.3
1-17Charlotte (85.6)CUSAA0-08%-16.4
1-22Southern Miss (289.5)CUSAH0-074%7.6
1-24Louisiana Tech (121.8)CUSAH0-029%-6.5
1-28Houston (245.1)AmerA0-033%-5.1
1-31North Texas (246.7)CUSAA0-032%-5.4
2-5Marshall (231.1)CUSAA0-022%-8.8
2-7Western Kentucky (144.1)CUSAA0-016%-11.6
2-12Middle Tennessee (199.7)CUSAH0-051%0.2
2-14UAB (237.4)CUSAH0-054%1.1
2-19FIU (164.5)CUSAA0-019%-10.1
2-21Florida Atlantic (192.4)CUSAA0-021%-9.6
2-26Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAH0-017%-10.9
2-28Charlotte (85.6)CUSAH0-025%-8.1
3-5UTSA (272.4)CUSAA0-035%-4.7
3-7UTEP (70.6)CUSAA0-06%-17.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA28.0526.2010.0025.49-22.44-12.84
North TexasCUSA0.004.5042.8635.49-0.00-1.31
UTEPCUSA0.424.4560.0070.160.081.79
Old DominionCUSA0.004.4590.0081.850.002.83
UTSACUSA0.424.4437.5034.48-0.10-1.38
CharlotteCUSA0.004.4154.5562.720.001.12
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.6372.7367.400.000.91
Southern MissCUSA0.002.6242.8627.03-0.00-1.20
MarshallCUSA0.002.6222.2235.06-0.00-0.78
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.6250.0050.520.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.5650.0047.830.00-0.11
UABCUSA0.002.5630.0036.36-0.00-0.70
FIUCUSA0.002.5644.4449.34-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.5542.8647.85-0.00-0.11
Washington St.P128.332.0533.3325.66-2.78-1.00
Houston BaptistSlnd8.331.960.0033.87-8.33-0.63
LamarSlnd0.001.9314.2934.79-0.00-0.59
Prairie View A&MSWAC8.331.920.0040.50-8.33-0.36
Oregon St.P128.331.9175.0054.664.170.18
William & MaryCAA8.331.9150.0055.450.000.21
HoustonAmer0.691.8962.5040.880.17-0.34
MercerSC8.331.8537.5042.02-2.08-0.30
TexasB120.001.8590.9179.330.001.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.420.2566.6778.020.140.14
Oklahoma St.B120.880.2288.8963.020.680.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.2180.0076.450.000.11
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.2033.3340.63-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.460.199.0917.12-0.38-0.13
TCUB120.830.19100.0067.700.830.07
WashingtonP120.000.19100.0075.440.000.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1833.3334.30-0.00-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1814.2915.15-0.00-0.13
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.420.1855.5673.740.050.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.170.0017.97-0.00-0.11
Texas St.SB0.420.1750.0050.060.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.1644.4451.07-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1616.6743.20-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.16100.0082.630.000.10
Texas TechB120.420.1690.0055.360.330.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.160.0027.67-0.00-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1420.0045.74-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1357.1455.330.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1345.4545.10-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1333.3361.74-0.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.1380.0063.910.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1340.0049.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.1370.0057.440.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0034.33-0.00-0.04
UCLAP120.000.1366.6754.480.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1290.9169.030.000.05
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.320.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0023.69-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.1281.8266.010.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1120.0044.37-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1116.6740.27-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1022.2235.90-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.1072.7375.710.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1020.0052.97-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1036.3648.28-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1033.3337.91-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.1055.5635.900.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.600.1077.7875.550.330.05
CreightonBE0.000.1075.0052.140.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.10100.0084.930.000.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.1062.5072.070.000.04
RichmondA100.600.1060.0057.700.120.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1060.0065.120.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1018.1837.71-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.460.10100.0078.210.460.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.460.100.009.06-0.46-0.08
MemphisAmer0.420.1060.0062.070.080.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1090.0065.480.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0954.5548.490.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0970.0064.680.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3330.28-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0940.0041.32-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.880.0937.5063.95-0.220.03
USCP120.000.0960.0036.410.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6758.000.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6737.21-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0980.0080.520.000.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0960.0061.600.000.02
BaylorB120.420.0990.0073.240.330.04
Penn St.B100.000.0991.6755.310.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0966.6766.010.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0990.9170.080.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0914.2944.44-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0017.69-0.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0720.0046.47-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.56-0.00-0.06
HofstraCAA0.000.0770.0076.180.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0763.6455.660.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0775.0058.760.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0770.0060.920.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0714.2929.82-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0760.0047.170.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.690.0755.5655.710.080.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0742.8648.87-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0762.5059.050.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0785.7172.910.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0710.0027.17-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0780.0072.200.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0736.3646.72-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0069.200.000.03
FloridaSEC0.600.0763.6465.220.160.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0772.7374.850.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0031.89-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5655.280.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0663.6464.880.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.43-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.770.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.81-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.460.0633.3328.79-0.15-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.02-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.620.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0035.33-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.460.0633.3338.93-0.15-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0040.93-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.590.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
AuburnSEC0.460.0650.0039.790.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6456.430.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.070.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.31-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0633.3330.21-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.61-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3341.20-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0672.7375.740.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.64-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.500.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.220.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0680.0053.260.000.00
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.190.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0670.0062.710.000.02
NorthwesternB100.690.0463.6442.810.19-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.690.0450.0054.170.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.690.0450.0043.310.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0481.8263.330.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.130.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
High PointBSth0.600.0366.6761.790.200.01
HowardMEAC0.600.0330.0043.74-0.24-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.05-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0330.0043.15-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.85-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.600.0337.5031.88-0.15-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2229.80-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.160.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.460.0318.1830.76-0.29-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0377.7872.890.000.01
BrownIvy0.420.0340.0033.80-0.08-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3637.85-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.460.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.460.0360.0034.160.09-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.94-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.580.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3345.04-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.460.0344.4437.40-0.05-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.48-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.460.0340.0044.08-0.09-0.00
PacificWCC0.460.0355.5638.270.05-0.01
PortlandWCC0.460.0370.0051.040.190.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4450.60-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.460.0390.0067.380.370.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.320.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0363.6467.210.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6463.240.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.420.0390.9190.540.340.03
IdahoBSky0.420.0337.5052.01-0.100.00
Idaho St.BSky0.420.0311.1128.88-0.32-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0337.5049.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.17-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.420.0333.3337.22-0.14-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.480.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.60-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.008.00-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.420.0344.4436.80-0.05-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0058.120.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0387.5068.000.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.840.000.02
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.420.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.290.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0322.2238.44-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.71-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0355.5665.210.000.01