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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:96.6
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:300
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-226.00.01%
26-338.10.17%
25-442.70.96%
24-551.63.80%
23-662.39.05%
22-773.915.93%
21-887.220.55%
20-9101.619.55%
19-10116.915.50%
18-11134.18.56%
17-12151.74.17%
16-13169.41.34%
15-14185.00.31%
14-15209.40.07%
13-16220.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13James Madison (264.0)CAAA70-94W100%0.0
11-16Texas Southern (105.6)SWACH68-71L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska Omaha (170.8)SumA87-100W100%0.0
11-21Montana St. (212.6)BSkyH83-78W100%0.0
11-23Delaware St. (287.9)MEACH80-58W100%0.0
11-26Incarnate Word (227.9)SlndA79-87W100%0.0
11-30Houston Baptist (225.5)SlndH90-77W100%0.0
12-3Texas Tech (72.4)B12A85-84L0%0.0
12-10Stephen F. Austin (171.3)SlndH0-077%9.0
12-17Pittsburgh (74.1)ACCA0-030%-6.2
12-19Northwestern St. (259.4)SlndH0-089%15.0
12-31Old Dominion (102.4)CUSAA0-041%-2.7
1-2Charlotte (185.0)CUSAA0-061%3.4
1-5Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAH0-053%0.8
1-7UAB (137.2)CUSAH0-064%4.2
1-14North Texas (294.9)CUSAH0-092%17.1
1-19Louisiana Tech (95.6)CUSAA0-033%-5.3
1-21Southern Miss (332.1)CUSAA0-091%16.4
1-26Old Dominion (102.4)CUSAH0-062%3.5
1-28Charlotte (185.0)CUSAH0-079%9.7
2-4North Texas (294.9)CUSAA0-082%10.9
2-9FIU (266.6)CUSAA0-071%6.5
2-11Florida Atlantic (237.1)CUSAA0-067%5.2
2-16UTSA (303.1)CUSAH0-091%15.9
2-18UTEP (289.2)CUSAH0-089%14.5
2-23Southern Miss (332.1)CUSAH0-097%22.7
2-25Louisiana Tech (95.6)CUSAH0-053%0.9
3-2Marshall (120.3)CUSAA0-053%0.8
3-4Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAA0-073%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA28.9626.1975.0071.0014.4811.00
North TexasCUSA0.394.2333.3332.76-0.13-1.46
Old DominionCUSA0.394.1462.5067.770.101.47
CharlotteCUSA0.394.1362.5052.220.100.18
Louisiana TechCUSA0.004.1257.1473.670.001.95
Southern MissCUSA0.004.1120.0018.34-0.00-2.60
UTEPCUSA0.002.4920.0036.36-0.00-0.68
UTSACUSA0.002.4825.0030.64-0.00-0.96
MarshallCUSA0.002.4762.5053.760.000.19
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.4437.5035.29-0.00-0.72
UABCUSA0.002.4250.0060.640.000.51
FIUCUSA0.002.3914.2935.25-0.00-0.70
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.3887.5076.710.001.27
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.3828.5739.14-0.00-0.52
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.001.9325.0056.80-0.000.26
Incarnate WordSlnd6.641.9233.3344.56-2.21-0.21
James MadisonCAA7.091.9014.2931.21-5.06-0.71
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.8920.0043.46-0.00-0.25
Houston BaptistSlnd6.641.890.0040.39-6.64-0.36
Texas TechB127.811.8885.7160.395.580.39
Delaware St.MEAC7.091.8414.2938.44-5.06-0.43
Montana St.BSky7.031.8150.0058.490.000.31
PittsburghACC0.001.7875.0048.290.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC7.031.7842.8665.26-1.000.54
Nebraska OmahaSum6.251.7842.8652.81-0.890.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.3642.8650.33-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.3050.0057.950.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.2760.0062.420.000.07
LamarSlnd0.000.2442.8640.38-0.00-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.2342.8637.05-0.00-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.2112.5030.51-0.00-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.210.0017.92-0.00-0.13
LSUSEC0.000.1871.4347.690.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.620.1871.4363.080.690.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1740.0054.81-0.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1740.0041.72-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0013.32-0.00-0.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1514.2943.08-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1562.5054.660.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1412.5033.18-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1412.5033.31-0.00-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.1487.5075.690.000.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1375.0047.520.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.1271.4357.210.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1257.1471.170.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.820.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1277.7855.180.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0034.54-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1250.0041.460.00-0.02
TexasB120.780.1250.0038.730.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0032.29-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1225.0031.76-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1142.8653.80-0.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3346.06-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1150.0048.500.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0988.8967.470.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0023.62-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.390.0920.0021.92-0.23-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0916.6730.09-0.00-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.0971.4348.030.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0955.5643.870.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0987.5059.030.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.390.0962.5067.590.100.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0078.180.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0962.5074.160.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.390.0912.5029.77-0.29-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.63-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.390.0950.0041.700.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6743.53-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.390.0944.4436.20-0.04-0.02
Iowa St.B120.390.0975.0071.330.200.04
Kansas St.B120.390.0988.8956.710.300.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0061.350.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0937.5047.57-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.290.000.05
VCUA100.000.0975.0072.930.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.90-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.390.0850.0050.980.000.00
KansasB120.000.0888.8977.470.000.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.0840.0058.88-0.000.01
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.070.000.04
TCUB120.000.08100.0060.950.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0716.6729.83-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0760.0069.260.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0712.5023.82-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.780.0762.5058.130.200.01
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.510.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0056.270.000.01
MarquetteBE0.780.0677.7864.250.430.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0662.5044.840.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5042.780.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0044.180.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.390.0628.5733.56-0.17-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4362.990.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0662.5070.890.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.44-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.75-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.75-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0687.5050.250.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
IowaB100.390.0644.4438.41-0.04-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0611.1120.27-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7866.740.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.680.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.830.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.88-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.30-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0657.1457.780.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.390.0650.0056.080.000.01
UMBCAE0.390.0680.0054.190.230.00
SMUAmer0.390.0666.6766.650.130.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0020.72-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6770.400.000.02
AuburnSEC0.390.0685.7157.280.280.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.440.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.590.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.910.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.010.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0662.5062.080.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0688.8978.430.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.780.0362.5052.400.200.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0045.82-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.860.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.390.030.0033.71-0.39-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
USCP120.390.03100.0076.400.390.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0357.1443.930.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8644.89-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.450.0337.5037.96-0.11-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3355.64-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.49-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.450.0380.0058.220.270.00
Washington St.P120.450.0342.8629.20-0.06-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0337.5038.08-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
George MasonA100.390.0362.5046.490.10-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5646.770.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.02-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.390.0377.7870.290.220.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
La SalleA100.390.0357.1456.540.060.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.390.0357.1449.420.06-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.390.0342.8650.57-0.060.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.140.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01