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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:260.0
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:328
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-896.00.01%
18-10115.80.04%
17-11131.00.17%
16-12155.50.47%
15-13173.61.73%
14-14193.34.22%
13-15213.07.63%
12-16231.212.88%
11-17249.417.16%
10-18266.517.46%
9-19281.616.24%
8-20295.811.35%
7-21307.06.84%
6-22317.72.69%
5-23327.60.77%
4-24333.20.31%
3-25338.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Eastern Kentucky (183.2)OVCH72-73L0%0.0
11-14Georgia St. (96.0)SBH54-75L0%0.0
11-17Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndA65-87W100%0.0
11-20UNLV (110.1)MWCN0-016%-12.1
11-29UT Arlington (69.5)SBA0-010%-15.2
12-2UT Rio Grande Valley (269.0)WACH0-067%5.3
12-9Stephen F. Austin (161.5)SlndA0-021%-9.7
12-16Texas Tech (67.9)B12A0-03%-23.3
12-19New Mexico (141.4)MWCA0-016%-11.8
12-22Texas St. (221.0)SBH0-048%-0.6
12-28UTSA (247.6)CUSAA0-037%-3.9
12-30UTEP (192.6)CUSAA0-025%-8.2
1-4Old Dominion (99.3)CUSAH0-025%-8.0
1-6Charlotte (237.7)CUSAH0-049%-0.2
1-13North Texas (285.9)CUSAH0-064%4.3
1-18Southern Miss (242.4)CUSAA0-039%-3.3
1-20Louisiana Tech (113.7)CUSAA0-016%-11.8
1-25FIU (322.8)CUSAH0-073%7.3
1-27Florida Atlantic (273.2)CUSAH0-063%4.0
2-3North Texas (285.9)CUSAA0-044%-1.7
2-8Middle Tennessee (60.8)CUSAA0-09%-16.0
2-10UAB (84.4)CUSAA0-08%-16.9
2-15Marshall (170.2)CUSAH0-044%-1.9
2-17Western Kentucky (180.6)CUSAH0-045%-1.6
2-22Florida Atlantic (273.2)CUSAA0-043%-2.0
2-24FIU (322.8)CUSAA0-054%1.3
3-1UTEP (192.6)CUSAH0-043%-2.2
3-3UTSA (247.6)CUSAH0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA36.1126.2333.3336.34-12.04-7.16
North TexasCUSA0.004.4250.0035.960.00-1.24
UTEPCUSA0.004.320.0050.520.000.04
UTSACUSA0.004.3233.3337.200.00-1.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.300.0030.840.00-1.65
FIUCUSA0.004.290.0024.080.00-2.22
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.60100.0062.810.000.67
Southern MissCUSA0.002.570.0033.600.00-0.84
Old DominionCUSA0.002.5775.0072.890.001.18
CharlotteCUSA0.002.570.0045.450.00-0.23
MarshallCUSA0.002.5366.6748.850.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.530.0044.650.00-0.27
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.5066.6767.450.000.87
UABCUSA0.002.50100.0078.240.001.41
Texas St.SB0.002.0133.3345.880.00-0.17
UT ArlingtonSB0.002.00100.0070.910.000.84
New MexicoMWC0.001.9150.0049.390.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB16.671.910.0063.85-16.670.53
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.001.9150.0035.420.00-0.56
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.001.89100.0068.980.000.72
Texas TechB120.001.86100.0061.430.000.42
Northwestern St.Slnd16.671.850.0023.88-16.67-0.97
Eastern KentuckyOVC16.671.850.0050.62-16.670.02
UNLVMWC0.001.85100.0064.040.000.52
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2650.0069.320.000.10
South AlabamaSB0.000.2533.3345.780.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.2366.6773.200.000.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.230.0046.000.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.2233.3346.880.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.22100.0060.070.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.2233.3347.670.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.2033.3342.010.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.1933.3346.410.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1950.0059.190.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.19100.0066.490.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.19100.0064.470.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.170.0029.630.00-0.07
LamarSlnd0.000.17100.0065.580.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1750.0043.710.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1766.6728.760.00-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.170.0023.170.00-0.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.170.0038.960.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.160.0035.450.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.160.0036.830.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1675.0058.930.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1666.6742.170.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.160.0028.720.00-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.000.15100.0044.740.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0035.610.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.140.0042.810.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1375.0071.560.000.06
TexasB122.780.13100.0063.832.780.04
NebraskaB100.000.1366.6740.070.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1350.0060.430.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.130.0038.990.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.130.0031.810.00-0.05
Little RockSB0.000.130.0037.050.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3343.810.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0059.540.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1250.0060.060.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0021.010.00-0.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1250.0050.190.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.12100.0078.910.000.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0044.130.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1050.0066.710.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.100.0047.180.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0022.610.00-0.05
MississippiSEC8.330.10100.0053.798.330.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.100.0036.490.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0046.410.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0039.640.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0933.3336.610.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0925.0050.070.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0033.850.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.520.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.770.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.09100.0057.360.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0950.0062.630.000.02
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.150.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.07100.0071.700.000.03
SMUAmer2.780.07100.0076.262.780.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0766.6750.670.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0775.0048.770.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0046.080.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0051.080.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0750.0048.690.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.07100.0041.780.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0066.530.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0633.3338.880.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.06100.0052.950.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0061.110.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.03
UtahP120.000.04100.0067.160.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3341.010.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.960.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.910.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3338.050.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0034.730.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02