Rice

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	328.0
Current RPI:	328
Expected SOS:	219
Current SOS:	219
Current Record:	5-24
Expected Record:	5-24
Current Conf Record:	4-14
Expected Conf Record:	4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-9
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	319
Expected OOC SOS:	187

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-24	328.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	72-73	L	0%
11-14	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	54-75	L	0%
11-17	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	65-87	W	100%
11-20	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	N	95-68	L	0%
11-22	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	N	79-62	L	0%
11-29	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	69-49	L	0%
12-2	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	67-69	L	0%
12-9	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	81-62	L	0%
12-16	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	73-53	L	0%
12-19	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	78-69	L	0%
12-22	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	66-74	L	0%
12-28	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	79-66	L	0%
12-30	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	80-62	L	0%
1-4	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	75-82	L	0%
1-6	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	73-64	W	100%
1-13	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	78-85	L	0%
1-18	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	86-75	L	0%
1-20	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	69-54	L	0%
1-25	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	73-64	W	100%
1-27	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	62-63	L	0%
2-3	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	74-70	L	0%
2-8	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	94-75	L	0%
2-10	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	61-56	L	0%
2-15	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	80-93	L	0%
2-17	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	66-85	L	0%
2-22	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	76-79	W	100%
2-24	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	67-64	L	0%
3-1	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	76-70	W	100%
3-3	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	60-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rice	CUSA	26.12	26.12	16.55	16.55	-17.47	-17.47
North Texas	CUSA	4.23	4.23	39.29	39.29	-0.91	-0.91
UTSA	CUSA	4.19	4.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	4.16	4.16	32.14	32.14	-1.49	-1.49
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	4.13	4.13	30.77	30.77	-1.59	-1.59
FIU	CUSA	4.11	4.11	37.04	37.04	-1.07	-1.07
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	2.53	2.53	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
Southern Miss	CUSA	2.53	2.53	37.93	37.93	-0.61	-0.61
Marshall	CUSA	2.50	2.50	68.75	68.75	0.94	0.94
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.47	2.47	77.42	77.42	1.36	1.36
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.47	2.47	68.75	68.75	0.92	0.92
UAB	CUSA	2.44	2.44	56.67	56.67	0.33	0.33
Charlotte	CUSA	2.41	2.41	18.52	18.52	-1.52	-1.52
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.40	2.40	75.86	75.86	1.24	1.24
UT Arlington	SB	1.95	1.95	59.38	59.38	0.37	0.37
Texas St.	SB	1.92	1.92	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Georgia St.	SB	1.89	1.89	67.74	67.74	0.67	0.67
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	1.84	1.84	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
New Mexico	MWC	1.83	1.83	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.82	1.82	79.31	79.31	1.07	1.07
Mississippi	SEC	1.81	1.81	35.48	35.48	-0.53	-0.53
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.80	1.80	28.57	28.57	-0.77	-0.77
Texas Tech	B12	1.79	1.79	71.88	71.88	0.78	0.78
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.78	1.78	8.33	8.33	-1.48	-1.48
UNLV	MWC	1.78	1.78	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.24	0.24	80.65	80.65	0.15	0.15
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.23	0.23	30.77	30.77	-0.09	-0.09
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	83.33	83.33	0.15	0.15
South Alabama	SB	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.20	0.20	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.20	0.20	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Texas	B12	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.16	0.16	32.00	32.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Florida	Amer	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.15	0.15	12.50	12.50	-0.11	-0.11
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.15	0.15	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Utah St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	Slnd	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02