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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:272.7
Current RPI:302
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:266
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1097.00.01%
15-11108.70.03%
14-12137.40.08%
13-13155.50.36%
12-14175.41.25%
11-15197.23.17%
10-16219.06.35%
9-17239.213.25%
8-18260.017.73%
7-19279.320.15%
6-20296.217.52%
5-21310.912.32%
4-22322.85.52%
3-23332.31.84%
2-24337.60.37%
1-25345.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oregon St. (178.0)P12A67-54L0%0.0
11-19Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH68-64W100%0.0
11-22William & Mary (160.1)CAAH65-69L0%0.0
11-27Mercer (207.1)SCN0-034%-4.8
12-3Houston Baptist (320.9)SlndH0-075%8.0
12-22Lamar (294.3)SlndA0-043%-2.1
12-29Texas (8.3)B12A0-01%-29.1
1-2UTSA (253.7)CUSAH0-052%0.6
1-4UTEP (86.6)CUSAH0-021%-9.8
1-10North Texas (226.6)CUSAH0-050%0.1
1-15Old Dominion (75.4)CUSAA0-07%-18.0
1-17Charlotte (79.8)CUSAA0-08%-17.2
1-22Southern Miss (138.7)CUSAH0-032%-5.7
1-24Louisiana Tech (72.0)CUSAH0-018%-11.2
1-28Houston (124.5)AmerA0-010%-15.6
1-31North Texas (226.6)CUSAA0-028%-7.1
2-5Marshall (156.3)CUSAA0-016%-12.2
2-7Western Kentucky (179.0)CUSAA0-019%-10.6
2-12Middle Tennessee (187.0)CUSAH0-040%-3.0
2-14UAB (192.0)CUSAH0-040%-3.0
2-19FIU (205.4)CUSAA0-025%-8.1
2-21Florida Atlantic (252.0)CUSAA0-028%-6.9
2-26Old Dominion (75.4)CUSAH0-018%-10.8
2-28Charlotte (79.8)CUSAH0-020%-10.0
3-5UTSA (253.7)CUSAA0-029%-6.6
3-7UTEP (86.6)CUSAA0-08%-16.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA32.2226.2323.0826.34-17.35-12.41
North TexasCUSA0.004.6966.6737.010.00-1.22
Old DominionCUSA0.004.6280.0074.080.002.23
CharlotteCUSA0.004.5975.0064.190.001.30
UTEPCUSA0.004.59100.0069.040.001.75
UTSACUSA0.004.5950.0035.630.00-1.32
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.7580.0071.670.001.19
Southern MissCUSA0.002.7450.0053.720.000.20
MarshallCUSA0.002.7366.6750.010.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.7333.3341.81-0.00-0.45
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.6750.0044.900.00-0.27
FIUCUSA0.002.6750.0042.450.00-0.40
UABCUSA0.002.6733.3341.85-0.00-0.43
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.660.0034.82-0.00-0.81
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.030.0024.92-0.00-1.02
LamarSlnd0.002.000.0033.17-0.00-0.67
Prairie View A&MSWAC16.671.990.0041.69-16.67-0.33
William & MaryCAA16.671.9950.0044.380.00-0.22
HoustonAmer0.001.96100.0062.870.000.51
MercerSC0.001.9233.3352.26-0.000.09
Oregon St.P1216.671.9250.0043.890.00-0.24
TexasB120.001.92100.0078.500.001.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.260.0065.66-0.000.08
Oklahoma St.B124.440.23100.0055.774.440.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.23100.0051.650.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.21100.0031.710.00-0.08
Washington St.P120.000.2133.3328.67-0.00-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.200.0016.93-0.00-0.14
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1950.0064.210.000.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.190.0030.13-0.00-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1950.0063.110.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.180.0029.60-0.00-0.07
Texas St.SB0.000.1866.6748.390.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0031.92-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1725.0040.65-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1733.3341.47-0.00-0.03
TCUB121.670.17100.0057.581.670.03
Texas TechB120.000.1766.6745.370.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.150.0029.61-0.00-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1440.0066.65-0.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0074.960.000.07
ChattanoogaSC0.000.140.0046.88-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1466.6747.180.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1360.0056.290.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0039.51-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1340.0053.80-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0022.66-0.00-0.07
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0078.600.000.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0045.64-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0053.97-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0038.56-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.11100.0064.710.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1120.0035.62-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0076.960.000.06
SMUAmer0.000.1050.0069.360.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1025.0057.73-0.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.1040.0039.62-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.100.0020.03-0.00-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.100.0031.81-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.10100.0047.530.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1020.0029.26-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.10100.0081.370.000.06
MemphisAmer1.670.1050.0066.640.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1033.3368.63-0.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6751.260.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.10100.0067.390.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.1033.3363.19-0.000.03
RichmondA100.000.1066.6766.030.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1020.0053.69-0.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0058.760.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0066.020.000.03
BaylorB121.670.10100.0070.101.670.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1033.3349.79-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.1080.0043.930.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1040.0050.01-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.10100.0070.420.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.080.0021.40-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.080.0034.80-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0020.52-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6757.950.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0733.3323.97-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0775.0056.780.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0775.0066.800.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0775.0047.460.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.070.0039.25-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0075.310.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0040.14-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0019.76-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0026.64-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0780.0059.570.000.01
VMISC0.000.0733.3337.04-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0733.3354.64-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.12-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0056.390.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.07100.0070.800.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0750.0067.730.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0025.79-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.32-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.070.0033.27-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0064.44-0.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0775.0056.870.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0074.590.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.130.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3344.26-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0775.0073.930.000.03
OregonP120.000.0775.0068.720.000.03
UCLAP120.000.07100.0064.700.000.02
USCP120.000.0740.0028.54-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.07100.0056.070.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0775.0071.990.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0043.250.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0775.0069.590.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0750.0035.290.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0775.0058.430.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0068.180.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0069.760.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.70-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0616.6730.01-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.10-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0067.590.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0026.270.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6774.460.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.740.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0051.910.000.00
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0675.0057.780.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6758.810.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0041.460.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.04100.0062.840.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.040.0029.28-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0480.0057.960.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0475.0058.190.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0425.0039.30-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.040.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.04100.0060.950.000.01
FloridaSEC2.780.0466.6768.660.930.01
High PointBSth0.000.0475.0055.840.000.00
HowardMEAC2.780.040.0038.25-2.78-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.040.0023.63-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.04100.0059.320.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.04100.0065.090.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.040.0055.84-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0450.0041.580.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0475.0069.180.000.01
TroySB0.000.040.0044.74-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0433.3333.50-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.26-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0058.710.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0022.57-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6756.740.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.280.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.790.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0055.660.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.400.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum2.780.0333.3348.25-0.93-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.040.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6766.090.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.880.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.20-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.80-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.280.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0040.87-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.510.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3334.36-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0074.040.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.470.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0033.20-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0041.06-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.43-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6757.340.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0039.88-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.70-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0065.950.000.01
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.030.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0087.980.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.29-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3344.46-0.00-0.00