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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:321.3
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:221
Current Record:2-16
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18249.00.01%
10-19259.80.12%
9-20275.20.81%
8-21289.63.80%
7-22303.211.60%
6-23314.822.31%
5-24324.627.89%
4-25331.921.86%
3-26337.59.65%
2-27342.01.94%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Eastern Kentucky (271.3)OVCH72-73L0%0.0
11-14Georgia St. (135.6)SBH54-75L0%0.0
11-17Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndA65-87W100%0.0
11-20UNLV (123.3)MWCN95-68L0%0.0
11-22Mississippi (116.1)SECN79-62L0%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (120.5)SBA69-49L0%0.0
12-2UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACH67-69L0%0.0
12-9Stephen F. Austin (122.6)SlndA81-62L0%0.0
12-16Texas Tech (25.9)B12A73-53L0%0.0
12-19New Mexico (157.9)MWCA78-69L0%0.0
12-22Texas St. (217.2)SBH66-74L0%0.0
12-28UTSA (249.2)CUSAA79-66L0%0.0
12-30UTEP (283.2)CUSAA80-62L0%0.0
1-4Old Dominion (73.3)CUSAH75-82L0%0.0
1-6Charlotte (301.3)CUSAH73-64W100%0.0
1-13North Texas (217.7)CUSAH78-85L0%0.0
1-18Southern Miss (224.3)CUSAA86-75L0%0.0
1-20Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAA69-54L0%0.0
1-25FIU (287.3)CUSAH0-052%0.5
1-27Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAH0-052%0.5
2-3North Texas (217.7)CUSAA0-020%-9.4
2-8Middle Tennessee (32.9)CUSAA0-03%-20.8
2-10UAB (126.5)CUSAA0-05%-18.0
2-15Marshall (101.3)CUSAH0-025%-7.6
2-17Western Kentucky (45.0)CUSAH0-011%-13.5
2-22Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAA0-030%-5.9
2-24FIU (287.3)CUSAA0-030%-5.9
3-1UTEP (283.2)CUSAH0-045%-1.4
3-3UTSA (249.2)CUSAH0-040%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.3926.1811.6316.66-20.25-17.45
North TexasCUSA3.394.2441.1843.42-0.60-0.56
UTEPCUSA3.164.1429.4130.89-1.30-1.58
UTSACUSA3.164.1437.5036.57-0.79-1.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.394.1437.5035.97-0.10-1.16
FIUCUSA0.314.1135.2933.75-0.09-1.34
Louisiana TechCUSA3.112.4850.0053.700.000.18
Old DominionCUSA2.942.4577.7875.951.631.27
CharlotteCUSA2.932.4525.0026.58-1.46-1.15
Southern MissCUSA3.012.4537.5036.10-0.75-0.68
MarshallCUSA0.382.4268.4263.240.140.64
Western KentuckyCUSA0.382.4268.4270.190.140.98
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.232.4272.2273.910.101.15
UABCUSA0.152.3961.1163.030.030.62
Texas St.SB2.931.9355.5648.430.33-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB2.921.9357.8960.720.460.41
Georgia St.SB2.851.8764.7164.300.840.53
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC3.001.8442.1143.06-0.47-0.26
New MexicoMWC2.931.8442.1146.79-0.46-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.951.8278.5778.051.691.02
MississippiSEC2.931.8150.0044.060.00-0.22
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.851.8127.7830.31-1.27-0.71
Northwestern St.Slnd2.871.797.6915.43-2.43-1.24
Texas TechB122.781.7977.7870.871.540.75
UNLVMWC2.851.7872.2264.121.270.50
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.470.247.6923.28-0.39-0.13
South AlabamaSB0.370.2450.0045.900.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.290.2483.3384.230.200.16
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.2157.8966.250.010.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.330.2126.6729.04-0.16-0.09
OklahomaB120.330.2177.7867.900.180.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.300.2127.7838.13-0.13-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.300.2133.3337.22-0.10-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.290.2083.3381.350.190.13
James MadisonCAA0.240.1825.0028.25-0.12-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.220.1827.7831.12-0.10-0.07
TroySB0.300.1835.2942.76-0.09-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1861.1151.900.030.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.1866.6765.360.030.05
Boise St.MWC0.220.1778.9576.970.130.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1628.5731.27-0.08-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.260.1650.0051.480.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.167.6920.09-0.14-0.09
LamarSlnd0.080.1650.0054.850.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.165.8819.37-0.14-0.10
South FloridaAmer0.080.1635.0026.14-0.02-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.340.1652.9452.620.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1550.0052.440.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.250.1545.0041.34-0.02-0.03
TexasB120.250.1563.1657.620.060.02
Air ForceMWC0.220.1437.5031.76-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1345.0049.270.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.1337.5045.22-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1343.7549.10-0.02-0.00
NebraskaB100.160.1266.6759.780.050.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1266.6766.010.050.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.250.1272.2258.940.110.02
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1222.2228.59-0.09-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.1271.4374.650.000.06
Little RockSB0.220.1222.2225.26-0.12-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1244.4446.10-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1268.4254.090.060.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.290.1221.0539.47-0.17-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.1289.4777.030.060.06
Fresno St.MWC0.070.1166.6763.420.020.03
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1111.7612.81-0.11-0.08
Utah St.MWC0.070.1145.0045.50-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.140.1185.7182.070.100.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1052.9455.040.010.01
SMUAmer0.170.0970.0070.630.070.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0970.0068.420.000.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0963.1666.000.020.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.0910.5316.75-0.13-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
UtahP120.250.0961.1158.950.050.02
BradleyMVC0.150.0965.0057.870.050.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.0952.6343.120.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.0936.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0942.1143.50-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0935.2940.480.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0923.5328.700.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0926.3231.52-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.0957.8953.190.030.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6763.200.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.0938.8946.03-0.05-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.140.0968.4258.990.050.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0961.1156.830.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0858.8262.830.010.02
TCUB120.070.0873.6865.590.030.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0663.6457.640.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0641.1839.130.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0652.6351.090.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0645.0047.050.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0631.5835.150.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.920.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0655.0053.290.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.0610.0019.62-0.13-0.04
LSUSEC0.090.0661.1153.160.020.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.0658.8257.140.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.120.00-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.080.0668.4254.090.030.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0610.5327.31-0.06-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.80-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.0670.0068.220.060.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.930.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0663.1657.540.020.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.71-0.04-0.03
Washington St.P120.080.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0644.4445.980.00-0.00
DaytonA100.150.0647.3750.95-0.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0652.6347.360.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0618.7536.76-0.09-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.65-0.07-0.05
PacificWCC0.150.0645.0044.46-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.140.0668.4263.980.050.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0636.8435.550.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.440.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7159.980.020.01
ArizonaP120.140.0680.0078.980.090.03
IllinoisB100.070.0647.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0647.0652.51-0.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0668.4264.200.030.02
BaylorB120.070.0661.1156.090.020.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.740.050.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0672.2268.920.000.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.610.040.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0317.6517.23-0.06-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0375.0070.270.040.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.360.040.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0321.0523.50-0.05-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0366.6765.620.030.01
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.440.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0340.0047.86-0.02-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0344.4441.15-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.29-0.05-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0330.0036.48-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.900.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0360.0060.340.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0320.0028.72-0.04-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.94-0.03-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.700.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.030.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0352.9457.320.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.490.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0376.4769.020.000.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0370.5973.140.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.240.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.810.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0352.9460.270.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.900.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
USCP120.000.0371.4368.300.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.910.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.230.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.690.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.14-0.02-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.11-0.03-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.320.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.92-0.05-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.220.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.380.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0327.7840.970.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.730.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.690.000.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.690.010.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.35-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0368.4269.240.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0368.4255.060.030.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.550.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.930.020.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.6867.950.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.86-0.06-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.040.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0368.4257.780.030.00
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.620.030.01