Rice

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	177.4
Current RPI:	170
Expected SOS:	140
Current SOS:	134
Current Record:	10-11
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	4-5
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.54%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-1
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	214
Expected OOC SOS:	229

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-11	115.1	0.07%
16-12	129.1	1.55%
15-13	143.4	8.12%
14-14	159.7	23.55%
13-15	177.7	32.91%
12-16	194.8	24.13%
11-17	211.1	8.61%
10-18	226.6	1.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	80-65	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	81-49	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	H	75-59	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Northern Iowa (60.5)	MVC	N	64-60	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	N	63-90	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Houston Baptist (314.2)	GWC	A	66-78	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	H	81-87	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Temple (24.4)	A10	H	70-77	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	58-65	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	H	78-66	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	73-59	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	78-74	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	61-63	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	A	52-68	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	49-50	W	100%	0.0
1-18	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	60-61	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	H	46-70	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	73-51	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	H	88-74	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	H	77-75	W	100%	0.0
2-4	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	A	82-68	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		46%	-1.2
2-11	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	H	0-0		71%	6.1
2-18	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	0-0		23%	-8.2
2-22	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	0-0		46%	-1.1
2-25	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	0-0		13%	-12.3
2-29	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		33%	-4.7
3-3	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	H	0-0		69%	5.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rice	CUSA	26.28	26.17	44.66	44.78	-2.81	-2.73
Tulane	CUSA	5.10	4.31	68.42	63.09	1.88	1.13
Houston	CUSA	0.61	4.31	47.62	44.79	-0.03	-0.45
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.84	4.29	45.45	44.02	-0.26	-0.51
Tulsa	CUSA	2.84	4.29	59.09	56.94	0.52	0.59
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.77	4.28	40.00	39.60	-0.55	-0.89
Memphis	CUSA	2.55	2.41	68.18	70.56	0.93	0.99
Marshall	CUSA	2.76	2.41	57.14	58.28	0.39	0.40
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.46	2.41	85.71	82.01	0.33	1.54
UAB	CUSA	2.66	2.41	38.10	37.67	-0.63	-0.59
Central Florida	CUSA	0.45	2.41	71.43	67.07	0.19	0.82
East Carolina	CUSA	2.60	2.40	41.18	39.29	-0.46	-0.51
Texas Christian	MWC	2.49	2.00	55.00	47.74	0.25	-0.09
Southern	SWAC	2.66	1.97	47.37	47.84	-0.14	-0.09
Texas A&M	B12	2.60	1.96	55.00	47.79	0.26	-0.09
Iowa St.	B12	2.59	1.93	72.73	67.38	1.18	0.67
Texas	B12	2.60	1.93	59.09	60.08	0.47	0.39
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.49	1.91	19.05	21.86	-1.54	-1.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.55	1.88	21.05	20.70	-1.48	-1.10
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.50	1.85	20.00	23.20	-1.50	-0.99
Lamar	Slnd	2.49	1.85	60.00	66.06	0.50	0.59
Northern Iowa	MVC	2.43	1.81	60.87	60.17	0.53	0.37
Temple	A10	2.43	1.81	76.19	74.20	1.27	0.88
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.38	1.79	26.32	29.66	-1.13	-0.73
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.32	0.33	45.45	40.70	-0.03	-0.06
Texas St.	Slnd	0.17	0.28	22.22	27.62	-0.09	-0.13
Kansas St.	B12	0.27	0.27	72.73	68.28	0.12	0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.24	66.67	60.80	0.07	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.24	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.27	0.24	31.82	25.98	-0.10	-0.11
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.29	0.23	38.10	42.78	-0.07	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.34	0.22	25.00	23.75	-0.17	-0.11
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.22	0.21	19.05	25.52	-0.14	-0.10
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.21	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.05
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.27	0.21	76.19	75.94	0.14	0.11
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.21	69.57	68.90	0.06	0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.29	0.19	19.05	24.61	-0.18	-0.10
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.19	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.23	0.19	16.67	23.02	-0.15	-0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.18	17.39	24.41	-0.11	-0.09
Creighton	MVC	0.26	0.18	87.50	85.41	0.20	0.13
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.18	27.78	29.58	-0.10	-0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.16	0.18	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.18	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.21	0.18	82.61	80.42	0.14	0.11
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.18	90.91	83.85	0.14	0.12
Kansas	B12	0.21	0.18	78.26	78.39	0.12	0.10
Missouri	B12	0.21	0.18	91.30	87.18	0.18	0.13
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.23	0.16	17.65	27.10	-0.15	-0.07
Grambling	SWAC	0.18	0.16	15.00	15.73	-0.12	-0.11
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.15	26.32	29.79	-0.08	-0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.21	0.15	54.17	57.20	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.13	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.24	0.13	38.89	43.93	-0.05	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.23	0.13	34.78	38.42	-0.07	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.13	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.13	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.23	0.13	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.12	0.12	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.12	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.02
Providence	BE	0.22	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.03	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.16	0.12	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.12	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.12	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.12	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.19	0.10	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.10	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.12	0.10	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.10	81.82	81.03	0.07	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.18	0.10	35.29	39.85	-0.05	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.10	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.10	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.10	9.52	13.19	-0.14	-0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.05	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.17	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.15	0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.09	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.09	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.09	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.09	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.10	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.09	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.09	30.00	31.54	-0.06	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.09	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.16	0.09	34.78	37.24	-0.05	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.16	0.09	69.57	73.28	0.06	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	100.00	94.55	0.11	0.08
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.09	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.09	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.09	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.00	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.04	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.10	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.06	73.91	74.91	0.05	0.03
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.07	0.04	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.07	0.04	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.04	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.04	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.03	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.00	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.00	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.00	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.05	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00