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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:328.0
Current RPI:328
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:219
Current Record:5-24
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:4-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-24328.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCH72-73L0%0.0
11-14Georgia St. (120.0)SBH54-75L0%0.0
11-17Northwestern St. (342.0)SlndA65-87W100%0.0
11-20UNLV (134.0)MWCN95-68L0%0.0
11-22Mississippi (141.0)SECN79-62L0%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (108.0)SBA69-49L0%0.0
12-2UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH67-69L0%0.0
12-9Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndA81-62L0%0.0
12-16Texas Tech (23.0)B12A73-53L0%0.0
12-19New Mexico (118.0)MWCA78-69L0%0.0
12-22Texas St. (243.0)SBH66-74L0%0.0
12-28UTSA (187.0)CUSAA79-66L0%0.0
12-30UTEP (293.0)CUSAA80-62L0%0.0
1-4Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAH75-82L0%0.0
1-6Charlotte (323.0)CUSAH73-64W100%0.0
1-13North Texas (235.0)CUSAH78-85L0%0.0
1-18Southern Miss (207.0)CUSAA86-75L0%0.0
1-20Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAA69-54L0%0.0
1-25FIU (295.0)CUSAH73-64W100%0.0
1-27Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH62-63L0%0.0
2-3North Texas (235.0)CUSAA74-70L0%0.0
2-8Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAA94-75L0%0.0
2-10UAB (155.0)CUSAA61-56L0%0.0
2-15Marshall (87.0)CUSAH80-93L0%0.0
2-17Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAH66-85L0%0.0
2-22Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAA76-79W100%0.0
2-24FIU (295.0)CUSAA67-64L0%0.0
3-1UTEP (293.0)CUSAH76-70W100%0.0
3-3UTSA (187.0)CUSAH60-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.1226.1216.5516.55-17.47-17.47
North TexasCUSA4.234.2339.2939.29-0.91-0.91
UTSACUSA4.194.1950.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA4.164.1632.1432.14-1.49-1.49
Florida AtlanticCUSA4.134.1330.7730.77-1.59-1.59
FIUCUSA4.114.1137.0437.04-1.07-1.07
Louisiana TechCUSA2.532.5346.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Southern MissCUSA2.532.5337.9337.93-0.61-0.61
MarshallCUSA2.502.5068.7568.750.940.94
Old DominionCUSA2.472.4777.4277.421.361.36
Western KentuckyCUSA2.472.4768.7568.750.920.92
UABCUSA2.442.4456.6756.670.330.33
CharlotteCUSA2.412.4118.5218.52-1.52-1.52
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.402.4075.8675.861.241.24
UT ArlingtonSB1.951.9559.3859.380.370.37
Texas St.SB1.921.9240.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Georgia St.SB1.891.8967.7467.740.670.67
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.841.8441.3841.38-0.32-0.32
New MexicoMWC1.831.8353.1253.120.110.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.821.8279.3179.311.071.07
MississippiSEC1.811.8135.4835.48-0.53-0.53
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.801.8028.5728.57-0.77-0.77
Texas TechB121.791.7971.8871.880.780.78
Northwestern St.Slnd1.781.788.338.33-1.48-1.48
UNLVMWC1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.240.2480.6580.650.150.15
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.2330.7730.77-0.09-0.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2283.3383.330.150.15
South AlabamaSB0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
OklahomaB120.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.160.1673.3373.330.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1632.0032.00-0.06-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.1512.5012.50-0.11-0.11
LamarSlnd0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1544.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
NebraskaB100.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1165.5265.520.040.04
BelmontOVC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
WyomingMWC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
SMUAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.089.689.68-0.07-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
TCUB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0682.7682.760.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02