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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:299.0
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:151
Current SOS:151
Current Record:5-23
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:224



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-23299.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH62-63L0%0.0
11-15Texas A&M (148.0)SECA68-65L0%0.0
11-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA61-63W100%0.0
11-23Princeton (122.0)IvyH56-70L0%0.0
11-29Rider (198.0)MAACN93-97L0%0.0
11-30Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA66-67W100%0.0
12-4Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA73-71L0%0.0
12-7South Alabama (280.0)SBH96-93W100%0.0
12-21Houston (143.0)AmerN54-52L0%0.0
12-30Texas (36.0)B12A66-44L0%0.0
1-4Harvard (46.0)IvyH54-69L0%0.0
1-9FIU (202.0)CUSAH60-71L0%0.0
1-11Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH68-73L0%0.0
1-16Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA84-62L0%0.0
1-18Tulane (223.0)CUSAA58-41L0%0.0
1-23Marshall (276.0)CUSAH63-73L0%0.0
1-25Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH71-69W100%0.0
1-30UTSA (306.0)CUSAA89-76L0%0.0
2-1UTEP (103.0)CUSAA68-57L0%0.0
2-6North Texas (195.0)CUSAH75-70W100%0.0
2-8Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH56-66L0%0.0
2-15Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA85-46L0%0.0
2-20Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA55-51L0%0.0
2-22East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA67-55L0%0.0
2-27UAB (152.0)CUSAH60-61L0%0.0
3-1Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA65-41L0%0.0
3-6Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH48-70L0%0.0
3-11North Texas (195.0)CUSAN63-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA25.9525.9517.1617.16-17.04-17.04
North TexasCUSA4.134.1344.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Louisiana TechCUSA4.104.1077.4277.422.252.25
Southern MissCUSA2.432.4380.0080.001.461.46
TulsaCUSA2.432.4362.5062.500.610.61
TulaneCUSA2.372.3748.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.372.3770.0070.000.950.95
UTSACUSA2.372.3719.2319.23-1.46-1.46
CharlotteCUSA2.372.3756.6756.670.320.32
UTEPCUSA2.352.3566.6766.670.780.78
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.352.3524.1424.14-1.21-1.21
Old DominionCUSA2.352.3546.8846.88-0.15-0.15
East CarolinaCUSA2.342.3442.8642.86-0.33-0.33
MarshallCUSA2.342.3426.6726.67-1.09-1.09
UABCUSA2.312.3153.5753.570.170.17
FIUCUSA2.282.2844.4444.44-0.25-0.25
Houston BaptistSlnd1.971.9711.5411.54-1.52-1.52
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.951.9555.5655.560.220.22
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.911.9128.0028.00-0.84-0.84
South AlabamaSB1.901.9029.6329.63-0.78-0.78
HarvardIvy1.881.8885.7185.711.341.34
HoustonAmer1.881.8850.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC1.871.8751.6151.610.060.06
TexasB121.851.8568.7568.750.690.69
PrincetonIvy1.851.8569.2369.230.710.71
RiderMAAC1.791.7943.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Santa ClaraWCC1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Nicholls St.Slnd0.330.3346.1546.15-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.310.3125.9325.93-0.15-0.15
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.2824.0024.00-0.15-0.15
OklahomaB120.260.2671.8871.880.110.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.2293.1093.100.190.19
Georgia St.SB0.220.2274.1974.190.100.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
Texas St.SB0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
LouisvilleAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
TCUB120.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
West VirginiaB120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.11-0.11
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
CornellIvy0.130.133.703.70-0.12-0.12
DartmouthIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
PacificWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01