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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:279.0
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:208
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20279.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13California (16.0)P12A97-65L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (228.0)WCCA80-54L0%0.0
11-19Oregon St. (33.0)P12H69-77L0%0.0
11-22Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH65-82L0%0.0
11-25Lamar (337.0)SlndH92-84W100%0.0
11-27UC Riverside (267.0)BWH87-81W100%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (105.0)SBH74-92L0%0.0
12-2Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA77-73L0%0.0
12-19New Mexico (141.0)MWCA89-90W100%0.0
12-22South Alabama (240.0)SBA74-67L0%0.0
12-29Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH76-82L0%0.0
1-1UTEP (215.0)CUSAA61-60L0%0.0
1-3UTSA (347.0)CUSAA85-80L0%0.0
1-9North Texas (295.0)CUSAA85-74L0%0.0
1-14Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH83-73W100%0.0
1-16Marshall (128.0)CUSAH90-94L0%0.0
1-21UAB (88.0)CUSAA82-70L0%0.0
1-23Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA87-73L0%0.0
1-30North Texas (295.0)CUSAH95-87W100%0.0
2-4Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH78-90L0%0.0
2-6Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH72-65W100%0.0
2-11Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA102-73L0%0.0
2-13Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA66-75W100%0.0
2-18Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH90-85W100%0.0
2-20FIU (270.0)CUSAH86-70W100%0.0
2-25Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA74-76W100%0.0
2-27Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA88-69L0%0.0
3-3Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH75-88L0%0.0
3-5Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH67-74L0%0.0
3-9Charlotte (234.0)CUSAN79-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.1926.1930.8830.88-10.01-10.01
CharlotteCUSA5.625.6236.6736.67-1.50-1.50
Old DominionCUSA4.114.1163.6463.641.121.12
North TexasCUSA4.084.0832.1432.14-1.46-1.46
Louisiana TechCUSA4.034.0367.8667.861.441.44
Southern MissCUSA3.973.9728.0028.00-1.75-1.75
Western KentuckyCUSA2.482.4851.6151.610.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.462.4670.0070.000.980.98
UTEPCUSA2.432.4354.8454.840.240.24
MarshallCUSA2.412.4150.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA2.372.3710.3410.34-1.88-1.88
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.362.3623.3323.33-1.26-1.26
FIUCUSA2.312.3137.9337.93-0.56-0.56
UABCUSA2.312.3180.0080.001.391.39
UT ArlingtonSB1.861.8667.7467.740.660.66
LamarSlnd1.841.8428.0028.00-0.81-0.81
Houston BaptistSlnd1.821.8242.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Incarnate WordSlnd1.811.8154.1754.170.150.15
South AlabamaSB1.811.8136.6736.67-0.48-0.48
CaliforniaP121.781.7868.7568.750.670.67
Fresno St.MWC1.781.7870.9770.970.750.75
UC RiversideBW1.761.7640.0040.00-0.35-0.35
Oregon St.P121.741.7458.6258.620.300.30
San FranciscoWCC1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
New MexicoMWC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
Georgia St.SB0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
TroySB0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.240.2482.1482.140.160.16
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
Texas St.SB0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1876.6776.670.100.10
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
UNLVMWC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MemphisAmer0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
UtahP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
WashingtonP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0920.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
PacificWCC0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01