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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Rice

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:247.0
Current RPI:247
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:167
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19247.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rice.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oregon St. (133.0)P12A67-54L0%0.0
11-19Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH68-64W100%0.0
11-22William & Mary (93.0)CAAH65-69L0%0.0
11-27Mercer (212.0)SCN77-71L0%0.0
11-28Washington St. (169.0)P12N76-74L0%0.0
12-3Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH55-58L0%0.0
12-22Lamar (230.0)SlndA79-72L0%0.0
12-29Texas (42.0)B12A66-55L0%0.0
1-2UTSA (237.0)CUSAH67-52W100%0.0
1-4UTEP (78.0)CUSAH57-66L0%0.0
1-10North Texas (224.0)CUSAH63-66L0%0.0
1-15Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA63-53L0%0.0
1-17Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA68-73W100%0.0
1-22Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH58-56W100%0.0
1-24Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH45-58L0%0.0
1-28Houston (239.0)AmerA59-48L0%0.0
1-31North Texas (224.0)CUSAA75-65L0%0.0
2-5Marshall (296.0)CUSAA69-55L0%0.0
2-7Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA68-72W100%0.0
2-12Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH71-68W100%0.0
2-14UAB (130.0)CUSAH82-73W100%0.0
2-19FIU (217.0)CUSAA60-56L0%0.0
2-21Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA69-76W100%0.0
2-26Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH54-63L0%0.0
2-28Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH76-77L0%0.0
3-5UTSA (237.0)CUSAA74-76W100%0.0
3-7UTEP (78.0)CUSAA68-65L0%0.0
3-11North Texas (224.0)CUSAN54-82W100%0.0
3-12Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAN70-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rice's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rice's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rice.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
RiceCUSA26.2926.2934.5334.53-8.13-8.13
North TexasCUSA5.905.9038.4638.46-1.36-1.36
UTEPCUSA4.284.2866.6766.671.431.43
UTSACUSA4.244.2446.1546.15-0.33-0.33
Old DominionCUSA4.224.2275.8675.862.182.18
CharlotteCUSA4.194.1943.3343.33-0.56-0.56
Louisiana TechCUSA4.194.1973.3373.331.951.95
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.632.6354.5554.550.240.24
UABCUSA2.552.5556.2556.250.320.32
FIUCUSA2.522.5243.3343.33-0.34-0.34
Western KentuckyCUSA2.522.5262.0762.070.610.61
MarshallCUSA2.492.4927.5927.59-1.12-1.12
Southern MissCUSA2.482.4826.9226.92-1.15-1.15
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.402.4026.9226.92-1.11-1.11
Washington St.P121.901.9040.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Houston BaptistSlnd1.821.8230.4330.43-0.71-0.71
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.811.8145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
LamarSlnd1.801.8040.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Oregon St.P121.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
William & MaryCAA1.781.7858.6258.620.310.31
HoustonAmer1.761.7638.7138.71-0.40-0.40
MercerSC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB121.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.2586.6786.670.190.19
Oklahoma St.B120.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Texas TechB120.220.2240.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2126.9226.92-0.10-0.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.2018.7518.75-0.12-0.12
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.190.1958.3358.330.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
ElonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
WashingtonP120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1772.4172.410.070.07
Texas St.SB0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.140.1491.1891.180.110.11
CaliforniaP120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
ColoradoP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
UCLAP120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1127.2727.27-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02