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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:37.0
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:45
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:55



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-937.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH95-69W100%0.0
11-19Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A101-80L0%0.0
11-23Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH98-59W100%0.0
11-28Siena (193.0)MAACN60-87W100%0.0
11-29LSU (83.0)SECN69-76W100%0.0
12-1Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12N73-68W100%0.0
12-7Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH96-76W100%0.0
12-13Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH73-59W100%0.0
12-17Florida (1.0)SECN75-77L0%0.0
12-21Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH77-65W100%0.0
12-28Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH75-61W100%0.0
12-31South Florida (232.0)AmerA73-88W100%0.0
1-4Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH53-69L0%0.0
1-9Louisville (19.0)AmerA67-73W100%0.0
1-11Temple (175.0)AmerA69-79W100%0.0
1-16Connecticut (22.0)AmerH73-83L0%0.0
1-23Houston (143.0)AmerH82-59W100%0.0
1-26South Florida (232.0)AmerH80-58W100%0.0
1-29UCF (220.0)AmerA59-69W100%0.0
2-1SMU (53.0)AmerA87-72L0%0.0
2-4Rutgers (192.0)AmerH101-69W100%0.0
2-8Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH60-54W100%0.0
2-12UCF (220.0)AmerH76-70W100%0.0
2-15Connecticut (22.0)AmerA86-81L0%0.0
2-20Rutgers (192.0)AmerA59-64W100%0.0
2-22Temple (175.0)AmerH82-79W100%0.0
2-27Houston (143.0)AmerA77-68L0%0.0
3-1Louisville (19.0)AmerH72-66W100%0.0
3-6Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA97-84L0%0.0
3-8SMU (53.0)AmerH67-58W100%0.0
3-13Connecticut (22.0)AmerH53-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer26.3926.3969.1769.1710.1210.12
ConnecticutAmer5.775.7774.1974.192.792.79
LouisvilleAmer4.254.2590.6290.623.453.45
CincinnatiAmer4.214.2180.6580.652.582.58
HoustonAmer4.184.1851.6151.610.130.13
South FloridaAmer4.174.1740.0040.00-0.83-0.83
RutgersAmer4.174.1736.6736.67-1.11-1.11
UCFAmer4.174.1740.7440.74-0.77-0.77
TempleAmer4.134.1331.0331.03-1.57-1.57
SMUAmer4.124.1273.3373.331.921.92
Oklahoma St.B123.283.2864.5264.520.950.95
FloridaSEC1.741.7493.9493.941.531.53
Northwestern St.Slnd1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd1.671.6748.0048.00-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6737.0437.04-0.43-0.43
LSUSEC1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
Arkansas Little RockSB1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
GonzagaWCC1.611.6184.3884.381.111.11
Jackson St.SWAC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
SienaMAAC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.220.2243.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
KentuckySEC0.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
Texas St.SB0.180.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1830.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
AuburnSEC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
BaylorB120.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1293.1093.100.100.10
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1134.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01