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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:120.7
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:84
Current Record:14-10
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1081.32.62%
20-1195.014.30%
19-12110.330.19%
18-13126.730.07%
17-14142.917.16%
16-15158.54.97%
15-16175.10.64%
14-17196.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern Miss (296.8)CUSAH67-49W100%0.0
11-17Oklahoma (3.0)B12H78-84L0%0.0
11-19Grambling St. (346.2)SWACH83-65W100%0.0
11-23UT Arlington (99.4)SBH64-68L0%0.0
11-27Ohio St. (90.7)B10N81-76W100%0.0
12-1Louisiana Tech (119.6)CUSAH94-68W100%0.0
12-5Southeast Missouri St. (333.6)OVCH80-65W100%0.0
12-12Manhattan (226.8)MAACH89-57W100%0.0
12-15Southern (178.9)SWACH72-67W100%0.0
12-18Mississippi (113.5)SECH79-85L0%0.0
12-22IUPUI (184.7)SumH84-48W100%0.0
12-29Tulane (231.7)AmerH77-65W100%0.0
1-2South Carolina (39.1)SECA86-76L0%0.0
1-5Nicholls St. (324.4)SlndH82-46W100%0.0
1-9Connecticut (41.3)AmerA81-78L0%0.0
1-13Temple (73.6)AmerH67-65W100%0.0
1-16South Florida (246.4)AmerH71-56W100%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (47.1)AmerA76-72L0%0.0
1-24East Carolina (198.2)AmerH83-84L0%0.0
1-26UCF (197.1)AmerA86-97W100%0.0
1-30SMU (16.3)AmerA80-68L0%0.0
2-4Connecticut (41.3)AmerH57-77L0%0.0
2-6Cincinnati (47.1)AmerH63-59W100%0.0
2-10Houston (94.8)AmerA98-90L0%0.0
2-13Tulane (231.7)AmerA0-072%6.4
2-17UCF (197.1)AmerH0-084%10.8
2-20South Florida (246.4)AmerA0-081%9.5
2-25SMU (16.3)AmerH0-031%-5.2
2-28Tulsa (55.3)AmerH0-058%2.1
3-3Temple (73.6)AmerA0-044%-1.7
3-6East Carolina (198.2)AmerA0-068%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer26.2526.2648.9853.29-0.541.73
TulaneAmer2.704.0337.5036.29-0.68-1.10
East CarolinaAmer2.544.0339.1337.68-0.55-0.99
South FloridaAmer2.704.0220.8320.42-1.57-2.38
ConnecticutAmer4.604.0068.1868.071.671.44
SMUAmer2.563.9986.3682.841.862.62
CincinnatiAmer4.613.9773.9173.052.201.83
TempleAmer2.693.9768.1864.820.981.18
UCFAmer2.563.9652.3847.350.12-0.21
HoustonAmer2.612.4969.5766.881.020.84
TulsaAmer0.662.4966.6765.500.220.77
Louisiana TechCUSA2.421.8176.1973.031.270.83
Grambling St.SWAC2.361.8015.7918.82-1.62-1.12
SouthernSWAC2.281.7565.0067.760.680.62
Ohio St.B102.321.7562.5057.420.580.26
Southern MissCUSA2.221.7231.5832.98-0.82-0.59
South CarolinaSEC2.171.7286.3679.761.581.02
MississippiSEC2.221.7060.8757.570.480.26
UT ArlingtonSB2.221.7066.6770.350.740.69
Nicholls St.Slnd2.171.6919.0521.82-1.34-0.95
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.131.6413.6415.85-1.55-1.12
IUPUISum2.081.6140.0039.82-0.42-0.33
ManhattanMAAC2.081.6147.6244.77-0.10-0.17
OklahomaB122.081.6186.3682.021.521.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.229.0917.13-0.19-0.15
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.2036.8442.87-0.05-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1943.4843.76-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.1850.0054.220.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.190.1731.8232.47-0.07-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1724.0025.68-0.10-0.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1726.0927.89-0.09-0.07
TroySB0.180.1622.7324.37-0.10-0.08
George WashingtonA100.170.1675.0071.980.090.07
RiceCUSA0.150.1427.2728.15-0.07-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.150.1454.1754.210.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.230.1455.0053.660.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1414.2924.87-0.09-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1341.6742.39-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.1386.3684.240.070.09
ButlerBE0.170.1370.8368.990.070.05
TexasB120.180.1366.6762.200.060.03
MichiganB100.130.1370.8366.750.060.04
KentuckySEC0.130.1375.0072.620.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1228.5733.29-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1240.0040.34-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1220.0022.24-0.06-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1245.4554.18-0.010.01
UTSACUSA0.100.1213.0412.96-0.07-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.140.1136.3636.29-0.04-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.1183.3379.820.060.07
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1137.5042.32-0.04-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.190.1160.8755.980.040.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.1123.8129.52-0.05-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.090.1126.3232.42-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.090.1122.7327.37-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.090.1145.8339.36-0.01-0.02
LSUSEC0.180.1162.5059.070.040.02
WisconsinB100.130.1162.5056.990.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.1125.0028.14-0.04-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.1125.0024.91-0.04-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.1159.0955.160.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.1179.1777.510.050.06
Iowa St.B120.170.1170.8367.960.070.04
MissouriSEC0.090.1133.3330.27-0.03-0.04
New HampshireAE0.130.1159.0956.880.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.1183.3378.390.060.06
MarylandB100.170.1087.5083.680.130.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.1341.06-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0947.8350.90-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0942.3144.49-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0860.8760.730.010.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0837.5037.41-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0860.8759.830.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0825.0033.24-0.07-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0858.3358.580.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.0855.5652.480.020.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0822.2231.13-0.05-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0834.7832.89-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.0850.0045.860.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0829.1733.08-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0850.0052.940.000.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0843.4842.42-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0817.6526.60-0.06-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0870.8365.570.040.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.0859.0961.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0860.0062.260.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0845.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0819.0525.89-0.08-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0845.4549.06-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0845.8342.30-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0887.5086.850.030.06
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0869.5770.090.040.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0872.2275.710.020.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0842.8641.32-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.0858.3356.290.020.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0825.0027.25-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0850.0048.120.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0839.1335.44-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0866.6766.320.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0843.4850.67-0.020.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0850.0048.970.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.130.0831.8234.54-0.05-0.02
MercerSC0.080.0866.6767.110.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0852.0050.770.000.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0870.8368.090.040.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0852.1754.140.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0640.0042.85-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0652.1753.440.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0616.6719.49-0.03-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0650.0050.500.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0668.1865.190.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0650.0049.320.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.100.0639.1342.98-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0051.150.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0668.1867.730.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0658.3363.160.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0645.4546.07-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0654.1754.100.010.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.25-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.7781.890.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0623.0823.85-0.05-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0634.7834.94-0.01-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0638.4641.36-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0665.3864.920.030.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0664.0057.890.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0614.2915.47-0.06-0.04
FordhamA100.090.0652.3850.690.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0683.3382.090.060.04
WyomingMWC0.090.0643.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0631.8236.13-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0661.9058.180.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.4543.88-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.069.5210.67-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0669.5770.020.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0626.0928.41-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.090.0533.3333.62-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0585.0083.450.060.04
BaylorB120.050.0573.9168.450.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0530.0030.54-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0564.0062.070.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.059.0912.25-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.080.0552.0049.300.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0552.1753.740.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0550.0049.490.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.040.0570.8368.650.020.02
KansasB120.050.0582.6179.210.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0565.2260.710.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0519.0520.30-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0536.8437.30-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0583.3381.270.030.03
South DakotaSum0.040.0544.0043.56-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0573.9174.640.040.03
StanfordP120.050.0547.6244.07-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0540.0038.87-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0560.8755.310.010.01
UtahP120.050.0570.8368.530.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0579.1778.100.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0531.5832.03-0.03-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0575.0075.100.020.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0540.9138.83-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0512.0011.95-0.07-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0580.0077.900.050.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0575.0075.350.020.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0558.3359.970.010.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0573.0873.770.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0556.0056.500.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0566.6764.780.010.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0512.5013.26-0.07-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0560.8758.910.010.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0520.8323.28-0.02-0.03
FurmanSC0.090.0556.0054.430.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0556.0052.860.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0554.1751.980.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0545.8344.06-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0547.8348.57-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0572.0071.330.020.02
LibertyBSth0.040.0534.7836.54-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.090.0532.0031.17-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0580.0081.550.000.03
NJITASun0.040.0556.0055.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0564.0062.090.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0526.9228.60-0.04-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0533.3336.30-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0538.1037.68-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0568.0064.070.030.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0577.2773.930.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.040.0521.7422.42-0.02-0.03
VCUA100.080.0570.8371.030.030.02
XavierBE0.080.0587.5081.840.060.03
RutgersB100.040.0521.7420.33-0.02-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0387.5083.730.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0073.080.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0331.8235.12-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.610.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.910.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0352.1754.970.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0368.1865.570.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0381.8281.780.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0343.4844.24-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.87-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.880.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.330.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.890.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.17-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.710.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.410.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.170.010.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.00
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0366.6766.780.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.039.5212.09-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0365.2263.630.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0363.6458.770.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0356.0055.750.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0314.2914.92-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.43-0.02-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0334.7831.64-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0373.9176.700.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.690.020.01
IowaB100.000.0379.1778.890.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0360.0057.680.010.00
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.720.010.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.460.030.01
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.67-0.03-0.02