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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:139.0
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:103
Current Record:19-15
Expected Record:19-15
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:167
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-15139.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH67-49W100%0.0
11-17Oklahoma (6.0)B12H78-84L0%0.0
11-19Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH83-65W100%0.0
11-23UT Arlington (105.0)SBH64-68L0%0.0
11-27Ohio St. (74.0)B10N81-76W100%0.0
12-1Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH94-68W100%0.0
12-5Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH80-65W100%0.0
12-12Manhattan (229.0)MAACH89-57W100%0.0
12-15Southern (186.0)SWACH72-67W100%0.0
12-18Mississippi (96.0)SECH79-85L0%0.0
12-22IUPUI (189.0)SumH84-48W100%0.0
12-29Tulane (227.0)AmerH77-65W100%0.0
1-2South Carolina (65.0)SECA86-76L0%0.0
1-5Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH82-46W100%0.0
1-9Connecticut (32.0)AmerA81-78L0%0.0
1-13Temple (60.0)AmerH67-65W100%0.0
1-16South Florida (230.0)AmerH71-56W100%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA76-72L0%0.0
1-24East Carolina (217.0)AmerH83-84L0%0.0
1-26UCF (219.0)AmerA86-97W100%0.0
1-30SMU (13.0)AmerA80-68L0%0.0
2-4Connecticut (32.0)AmerH57-77L0%0.0
2-6Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH63-59W100%0.0
2-10Houston (87.0)AmerA98-90L0%0.0
2-13Tulane (227.0)AmerA94-87L0%0.0
2-17UCF (219.0)AmerH73-56W100%0.0
2-20South Florida (230.0)AmerA80-71L0%0.0
2-25SMU (13.0)AmerH62-69L0%0.0
2-28Tulsa (58.0)AmerH92-82W100%0.0
3-3Temple (60.0)AmerA72-62L0%0.0
3-6East Carolina (217.0)AmerA53-83W100%0.0
3-11Tulsa (58.0)AmerN67-89W100%0.0
3-12Tulane (227.0)AmerN74-54W100%0.0
3-13Connecticut (32.0)AmerN72-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer26.3826.3850.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer5.285.2835.4835.48-1.53-1.53
ConnecticutAmer5.275.2767.7467.741.871.87
South FloridaAmer3.823.8222.5822.58-2.09-2.09
TempleAmer3.813.8166.6766.671.271.27
East CarolinaAmer3.793.7936.6736.67-1.01-1.01
TulsaAmer3.793.7968.9768.971.441.44
UCFAmer3.783.7842.8642.86-0.54-0.54
CincinnatiAmer3.763.7670.0070.001.511.51
SMUAmer3.733.7382.1482.142.402.40
HoustonAmer2.432.4370.0070.000.970.97
Louisiana TechCUSA1.641.6472.4172.410.740.74
Grambling St.SWAC1.631.6314.8114.81-1.15-1.15
SouthernSWAC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
Ohio St.B101.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
South CarolinaSEC1.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
Southern MissCUSA1.581.5826.9226.92-0.73-0.73
MississippiSEC1.551.5561.2961.290.350.35
UT ArlingtonSB1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
Nicholls St.Slnd1.541.5426.6726.67-0.72-0.72
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.491.4911.5411.54-1.15-1.15
IUPUISum1.471.4740.0040.00-0.29-0.29
ManhattanMAAC1.471.4743.3343.33-0.20-0.20
OklahomaB121.471.4777.4277.420.810.81
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.210.2122.5822.58-0.12-0.12
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1935.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
MichiganB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
TexasB120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1322.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Iowa St.B120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0982.1482.140.060.06
MercerSC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
AlbanyAE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
IllinoisB100.040.0444.1244.12-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01