Memphis

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	25.8
Current RPI:	20
Expected SOS:	25
Current SOS:	8
Current Record:	16-7
Expected Record:	22-9
Current Conf Record:	6-2
Expected Conf Record:	12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	59.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	10-5
Expected OOC Record:	10-5
Expected OOC RPI:	43
Expected OOC SOS:	8

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-7	14.9	11.45%
23-8	19.9	30.11%
22-9	26.0	32.34%
21-10	33.7	18.51%
20-11	44.0	6.29%
19-12	55.9	1.12%
18-13	68.1	0.15%
17-14	89.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	97-81	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Michigan (25.3)	B10	N	61-73	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Tennessee (136.4)	SEC	N	97-99	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Georgetown (13.9)	BE	N	91-88	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	70-45	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	H	91-60	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Miami FL (64.4)	ACC	A	54-71	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	H	72-76	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Louisville (25.3)	BE	A	95-87	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	H	85-75	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Georgetown (13.9)	BE	A	70-59	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	64-47	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	H	67-58	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Tennessee (136.4)	SEC	H	69-51	W	100%	0.0
1-7	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	A	59-62	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	H	60-58	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	A	55-89	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	A	68-67	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	H	63-45	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	H	73-51	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	83-76	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	75-72	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Xavier (55.8)	A10	H	72-68	W	100%	0.0
2-8	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	A	0-0		72%	6.4
2-11	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	0-0		91%	14.6
2-15	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	0-0		71%	6.2
2-18	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	H	0-0		90%	14.0
2-22	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	H	0-0		89%	13.1
2-25	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	0-0		57%	1.9
2-28	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	0-0		84%	10.8
3-3	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	0-0		63%	3.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Memphis	CUSA	26.45	26.27	68.13	71.46	9.59	11.28
Marshall	CUSA	2.57	3.91	61.90	62.54	0.61	0.98
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	4.55	3.89	89.47	84.57	3.59	2.69
UAB	CUSA	2.59	3.89	42.86	42.43	-0.37	-0.59
East Carolina	CUSA	0.51	3.87	44.44	43.63	-0.06	-0.49
Central Florida	CUSA	2.48	3.86	70.00	67.26	0.99	1.33
Tennessee	SEC	4.39	3.25	50.00	47.85	0.00	-0.14
Georgetown	BE	4.40	3.25	78.95	75.64	2.54	1.67
Tulsa	CUSA	0.36	2.21	60.87	59.82	0.08	0.43
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.38	2.21	40.00	39.21	-0.48	-0.48
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.31	2.18	43.48	44.46	-0.04	-0.24
Houston	CUSA	2.33	2.18	50.00	46.28	0.00	-0.16
Rice	CUSA	2.32	2.18	50.00	48.18	0.00	-0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.41	2.18	61.90	59.70	0.10	0.42
Belmont	ASun	2.41	1.83	72.73	75.81	1.10	0.95
Austin Peay	OVC	2.42	1.81	34.78	37.21	-0.74	-0.46
Murray St.	OVC	2.42	1.81	100.00	94.34	2.42	1.60
Charlotte	A10	2.28	1.76	52.38	51.21	0.11	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	2.37	1.72	45.45	45.38	-0.22	-0.16
Louisville	BE	2.28	1.67	77.27	71.74	1.24	0.73
Xavier	A10	2.22	1.67	68.18	65.94	0.81	0.53
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.23	1.67	20.00	26.43	-1.34	-0.79
Miami FL	ACC	2.22	1.64	68.42	62.17	0.82	0.40
Michigan	B10	2.17	1.61	71.43	65.66	0.93	0.51
Robert Morris	NEC	2.17	1.61	70.83	72.36	0.91	0.72
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.30	0.23	4.35	9.66	-0.27	-0.18
NC Greensboro	SC	0.26	0.20	34.78	33.46	-0.08	-0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.25	0.19	68.18	63.99	0.09	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.19	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.16
Florida	SEC	0.20	0.19	82.61	77.63	0.13	0.11
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.24	0.19	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.29	0.19	60.87	58.16	0.06	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.21	0.17	65.22	65.17	0.06	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.17	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.17	17.65	27.10	-0.10	-0.08
Cincinnati	BE	0.20	0.17	69.57	65.47	0.08	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.16	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.16	34.78	32.08	-0.06	-0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.24	0.16	17.39	22.00	-0.16	-0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.21	0.16	63.64	56.71	0.06	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.16	69.57	68.90	0.08	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.30	0.16	45.83	46.68	-0.02	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.23	0.16	83.33	84.76	0.16	0.11
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.19	0.16	69.57	65.87	0.08	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.15	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.20	0.14	60.87	59.76	0.04	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.14	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.15	0.14	34.78	38.42	-0.05	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.14	79.17	75.98	0.09	0.07
Providence	BE	0.15	0.14	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.14	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.14	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.21	0.14	16.67	23.02	-0.14	-0.08
South Florida	BE	0.21	0.14	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.20	0.14	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.14	69.57	65.15	0.06	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.14	17.39	24.41	-0.10	-0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	8.70	11.67	-0.12	-0.11
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.14	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.06
Duke	ACC	0.20	0.14	86.36	83.09	0.14	0.09
Georgia	SEC	0.24	0.13	45.45	41.20	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.24	0.13	95.83	92.57	0.22	0.11
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.12	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.11	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.11	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.10	0.11	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.11	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.21	0.11	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.11	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.11	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.11	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.11	66.67	60.80	0.05	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.11	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.20	0.11	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.11	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.11	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.11	81.82	77.20	0.09	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.11	40.91	39.56	-0.00	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.09	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.09	34.78	38.77	-0.01	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.09	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.09	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.09	26.32	29.71	-0.07	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.08	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.08	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.08	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.08	37.50	38.33	-0.04	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.08	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.08	34.78	35.50	-0.05	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.08	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.08	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.08	73.91	68.43	0.07	0.03
Temple	A10	0.10	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.16	0.08	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.08	61.90	67.23	0.04	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.08	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.08	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.08	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.08	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.10	0.08	28.57	30.17	-0.04	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.08	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.08	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.08	86.96	85.46	0.07	0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.08	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.14	0.08	80.77	80.75	0.09	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.08	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.08	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.08	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.13	0.08	8.70	12.13	-0.11	-0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.07	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.03	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.07	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Denver	SB	0.10	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.10	0.05	75.00	74.61	0.05	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.05	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.05	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.05	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.05	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.05	8.70	8.99	-0.08	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.05	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.05	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.05	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.05	9.52	11.44	-0.08	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.05	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.05	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.05	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.05	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.05	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.05	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.05	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.04	0.05	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.00	0.05	21.74	22.76	-0.00	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.00	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.00	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.00	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.00	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.00	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.00	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.00	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.03	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.04	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.04	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.04	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.04	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.02	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.04	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02