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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:85.7
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:56
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-517.00.01%
25-621.50.04%
24-727.40.35%
23-833.71.75%
22-942.64.48%
21-1052.49.67%
20-1164.816.13%
19-1278.020.16%
18-1392.518.84%
17-14107.614.14%
16-15123.58.71%
15-16139.53.66%
14-17158.11.48%
13-18177.00.42%
12-19194.70.13%
11-20192.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Wichita St. (17.4)MVCN56-71L0%0.0
11-24Prairie View A&M (285.7)SWACH77-49W100%0.0
11-27Baylor (10.6)B12N47-71L0%0.0
11-28Indiana St. (249.9)MVCN72-62W100%0.0
12-2Stephen F. Austin (75.0)SlndH52-64L0%0.0
12-6Bradley (270.6)MVCH73-45W100%0.0
12-13Oklahoma St. (30.0)B12H55-73L0%0.0
12-15North Carolina Central (148.9)MEACH81-47W100%0.0
12-17USC Upstate (179.5)ASunH83-73W100%0.0
12-20Oral Roberts (203.3)SumH0-085%12.3
12-23Western Illinois (294.7)SumH0-094%18.2
12-31Houston (204.7)AmerH0-085%12.4
1-3Tulane (152.3)AmerH0-080%9.8
1-8SMU (35.6)AmerA0-022%-8.9
1-11Houston (204.7)AmerA0-062%3.6
1-15Cincinnati (49.1)AmerH0-056%1.7
1-17UCF (253.3)AmerH0-092%16.6
1-21Tulsa (100.2)AmerA0-041%-2.6
1-24Tulane (152.3)AmerA0-053%1.0
1-28East Carolina (216.3)AmerH0-086%12.7
1-31Gonzaga (11.7)WCCA0-05%-19.7
2-4Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCH0-094%17.8
2-7Temple (105.5)AmerH0-073%7.3
2-10East Carolina (216.3)AmerA0-063%4.0
2-14South Florida (169.1)AmerA0-055%1.4
2-19Connecticut (71.3)AmerH0-060%3.0
2-22UCF (253.3)AmerA0-075%7.9
2-26SMU (35.6)AmerH0-049%-0.2
2-28Tulsa (100.2)AmerH0-070%6.1
3-5Connecticut (71.3)AmerA0-031%-5.8
3-8Cincinnati (49.1)AmerA0-028%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer27.7526.3141.4655.53-4.742.91
TulsaAmer0.664.0860.0057.710.130.63
CincinnatiAmer0.314.0677.7869.950.171.62
HoustonAmer0.004.0271.4350.540.000.04
UCFAmer0.284.0255.5636.360.03-1.10
SMUAmer0.004.0270.0071.870.001.76
ConnecticutAmer0.003.9950.0057.720.000.62
East CarolinaAmer0.003.9937.5039.58-0.00-0.83
TulaneAmer0.003.9987.5056.380.000.51
South FloridaAmer0.002.5044.4444.77-0.00-0.26
TempleAmer0.002.4963.6456.570.000.33
Wichita St.MVC5.561.7885.7184.763.971.24
Oklahoma St.B125.861.7587.5062.364.400.43
Oral RobertsSum0.001.7344.4446.73-0.00-0.11
BradleyMVC5.561.7337.5033.23-1.39-0.58
Indiana St.MVC5.561.7337.5034.02-1.39-0.55
BaylorB126.171.7388.8972.974.800.79
Prairie View A&MSWAC6.451.700.0040.81-6.45-0.31
USC UpstateASun5.561.6766.6767.111.850.57
Western IllinoisSum0.001.6737.5033.03-0.00-0.57
GonzagaWCC0.001.6790.0090.780.001.36
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.141.6762.5076.871.540.90
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.561.6650.0072.770.000.76
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.6155.5639.740.00-0.33
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2837.5040.20-0.00-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.2611.1144.04-0.24-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2371.4359.920.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.310.2090.0078.050.250.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.2010.0018.01-0.00-0.13
OklahomaB120.000.1977.7867.290.000.07
IUPUISum0.310.1820.0026.33-0.19-0.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1718.1821.30-0.00-0.10
DrakeMVC0.000.1720.0019.99-0.00-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1777.7871.110.000.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1766.6764.310.000.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1760.0049.500.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1718.1844.62-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.620.16100.0066.180.620.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.1611.1144.62-0.22-0.02
TexasB120.000.1690.0081.860.000.10
West VirginiaB120.000.1690.0066.940.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.860.150.0023.15-0.86-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.150.0012.36-0.28-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1418.1828.02-0.00-0.06
DetroitHorz0.350.1444.4448.88-0.04-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1416.6719.68-0.00-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0033.84-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.310.1433.3338.99-0.10-0.03
Kansas St.B120.310.1460.0037.220.06-0.04
Texas TechB120.310.1488.8955.910.240.02
KansasB120.000.1488.8969.390.000.05
DenverSum0.000.1250.0054.230.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.1257.1456.900.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1244.4455.75-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1255.5656.400.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1227.2738.97-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1262.5054.970.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1220.0034.08-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.1210.0027.42-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1233.3362.92-0.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1110.0018.58-0.00-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1150.0052.710.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1120.0039.70-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1175.0074.340.000.06
LamarSlnd0.000.1114.2934.12-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1120.0038.24-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1150.0049.620.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1122.2230.85-0.00-0.04
Iowa St.B120.000.1188.8963.800.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1118.1846.16-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.590.0990.9167.660.480.03
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0038.180.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.620.0936.3664.92-0.170.03
CreightonBE0.310.0972.7351.560.140.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.340.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0918.1835.99-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.310.0970.0071.630.120.04
Saint LouisA100.960.0960.0033.870.19-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0920.0029.81-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0074.000.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.0925.0028.68-0.15-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0037.510.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0866.6762.620.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.620.0822.2230.99-0.34-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0842.8652.71-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.620.0842.8636.79-0.09-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0014.79-0.00-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0825.0023.43-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0031.74-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0855.5661.790.000.02
RiceCUSA0.310.0816.6726.28-0.21-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0814.2945.19-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0887.5065.040.000.02
XavierBE0.310.0880.0070.960.190.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.0844.4445.64-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.000.08100.0087.140.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0881.8264.110.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0625.0042.64-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.91-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.020.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0037.73-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.350.0666.6754.660.120.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
Seton HallBE0.350.0690.0067.260.280.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0633.3334.28-0.10-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.310.0677.7855.460.170.01
Texas St.SB0.620.0650.0050.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.0625.0049.09-0.14-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0028.26-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.680.000.02
BrownIvy0.620.0640.0033.79-0.12-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6777.030.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.80-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.480.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.830.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.630.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.790.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.51-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0016.85-0.00-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.43-0.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0622.2237.75-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0071.820.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
IllinoisB100.590.0572.7365.930.270.02
South CarolinaSEC0.590.0562.5064.260.150.02
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5747.24-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.300.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0044.900.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0562.5064.770.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0577.7870.120.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.930.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0566.6748.410.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0571.4357.100.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0554.5557.300.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0550.0053.850.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0040.880.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0057.570.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0572.7367.180.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0575.0058.430.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0555.5640.500.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0570.0052.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6743.780.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0570.0072.830.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0550.0062.270.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3354.74-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0570.0071.420.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0514.2933.54-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.750.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0336.3638.88-0.08-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
FIUCUSA0.280.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
Georgia TechACC0.280.0377.7851.350.150.00
HowardMEAC0.310.0330.0043.91-0.12-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.310.0341.6744.33-0.05-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.0340.0050.78-0.060.00
UtahP120.350.0377.7879.480.190.02
Wright St.Horz0.280.0360.0057.600.060.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.51-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.310.0340.0050.07-0.060.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.17-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.310.0328.5736.95-0.13-0.01
ButlerBE0.310.0380.0072.550.190.01
Central MichiganMAC0.310.0385.7170.350.220.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.310.0366.6772.340.100.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5757.26-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.0330.0039.44-0.12-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.78-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.310.0355.5654.950.030.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.580.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8642.32-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0377.7865.390.150.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.280.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.280.0375.0060.400.140.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.960.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3344.71-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.750.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.00-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02