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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:120.0
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:129
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-13120.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH94-75W100%0.0
11-16Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH68-54W100%0.0
11-19Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH99-86W100%0.0
11-22McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH104-65W100%0.0
11-25Providence (56.0)BEN51-60L0%0.0
11-26Iowa (81.0)B10N100-92W100%0.0
11-30Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH84-69W100%0.0
12-3Mississippi (77.0)SECA85-77L0%0.0
12-10UAB (201.0)CUSAH62-55W100%0.0
12-13Monmouth (49.0)MAACH79-82L0%0.0
12-17Oklahoma (168.0)B12A94-99W100%0.0
12-21Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH95-71W100%0.0
12-27SMU (13.0)AmerH54-58L0%0.0
12-30South Carolina (42.0)SECH70-54W100%0.0
1-5Connecticut (118.0)AmerH70-61W100%0.0
1-8Tulane (296.0)AmerA59-80W100%0.0
1-11Tulsa (134.0)AmerA81-71L0%0.0
1-14South Florida (316.0)AmerH62-56W100%0.0
1-19Houston (54.0)AmerA67-70W100%0.0
1-22UCF (68.0)AmerH70-65W100%0.0
1-25Temple (137.0)AmerA77-66L0%0.0
1-28East Carolina (213.0)AmerH57-50W100%0.0
2-2South Florida (316.0)AmerA75-85W100%0.0
2-4UCF (68.0)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
2-7Tulsa (134.0)AmerH66-44W100%0.0
2-12Temple (137.0)AmerH62-74L0%0.0
2-16Connecticut (118.0)AmerA65-62L0%0.0
2-23Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA87-74L0%0.0
2-26Houston (54.0)AmerH71-72L0%0.0
3-2Tulane (296.0)AmerH92-70W100%0.0
3-4SMU (13.0)AmerA103-62L0%0.0
3-10UCF (68.0)AmerN84-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer26.3026.3055.9755.973.143.14
UCFAmer5.425.4265.5265.521.681.68
SMUAmer3.993.9987.5087.502.992.99
ConnecticutAmer3.983.9846.6746.67-0.27-0.27
TulaneAmer3.943.9420.6920.69-2.31-2.31
TulsaAmer3.933.9346.6746.67-0.26-0.26
HoustonAmer3.933.9368.9768.971.491.49
South FloridaAmer3.933.9325.0025.00-1.96-1.96
TempleAmer3.883.8846.6746.67-0.26-0.26
CincinnatiAmer2.572.5784.8584.851.791.79
East CarolinaAmer2.522.5246.8846.88-0.16-0.16
McNeese St.Slnd1.691.6920.0020.00-1.01-1.01
South CarolinaSEC1.691.6970.0070.000.670.67
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
IowaB101.621.6258.0658.060.260.26
MississippiSEC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
OklahomaB121.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Incarnate WordSlnd1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
MonmouthMAAC1.591.5981.2581.250.990.99
Savannah St.MEAC1.591.5942.3142.31-0.24-0.24
Jackson St.SWAC1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
MilwaukeeHorz1.561.5630.3030.30-0.62-0.62
ProvidenceBE1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
UABCUSA1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
George WashingtonA100.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
AuburnSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
MassachusettsA100.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1737.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
MissouriSEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Ohio St.B100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
StetsonASun0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01