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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:60.1
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:111
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-36.90.08%
25-410.60.48%
24-515.31.38%
23-620.84.31%
22-728.09.17%
21-837.114.75%
20-947.618.00%
19-1060.717.74%
18-1175.214.40%
17-1291.610.26%
16-13108.45.50%
15-14128.62.60%
14-15145.60.85%
13-16161.10.35%
12-17185.80.10%
11-18202.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Wichita St. (16.7)MVCN56-71L0%0.0
11-24Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH77-49W100%0.0
11-27Baylor (23.6)B12N0-037%-4.0
12-2Stephen F. Austin (116.4)SlndH0-078%9.2
12-6Bradley (281.1)MVCH0-096%20.9
12-13Oklahoma St. (70.8)B12H0-064%4.2
12-17USC Upstate (238.4)ASunH0-092%16.5
12-20Oral Roberts (166.9)SumH0-085%12.7
12-23Western Illinois (283.5)SumH0-095%19.2
12-31Houston (124.5)AmerH0-076%8.6
1-3Tulane (252.6)AmerH0-092%16.9
1-8SMU (29.4)AmerA0-031%-6.1
1-11Houston (124.5)AmerA0-055%1.4
1-15Cincinnati (79.3)AmerH0-072%7.0
1-17UCF (194.2)AmerH0-087%13.5
1-21Tulsa (90.6)AmerA0-049%-0.3
1-24Tulane (252.6)AmerA0-079%9.7
1-28East Carolina (238.6)AmerH0-091%16.4
1-31Gonzaga (15.9)WCCA0-016%-12.1
2-4Jacksonville St. (275.0)OVCH0-096%20.7
2-7Temple (122.2)AmerH0-079%9.6
2-10East Carolina (238.6)AmerA0-078%9.2
2-14South Florida (135.5)AmerA0-060%3.2
2-19Connecticut (24.7)AmerH0-052%0.6
2-22UCF (194.2)AmerA0-070%6.3
2-26SMU (29.4)AmerH0-054%1.1
2-28Tulsa (90.6)AmerH0-072%6.8
3-5Connecticut (24.7)AmerA0-029%-6.6
3-8Cincinnati (79.3)AmerA0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer33.7526.3637.5063.76-8.447.25
TulsaAmer0.004.3475.0059.870.000.86
HoustonAmer0.004.32100.0065.990.001.38
CincinnatiAmer0.004.32100.0060.150.000.88
UCFAmer0.004.31100.0049.540.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.004.3150.0070.210.001.74
ConnecticutAmer0.004.2975.0071.040.001.80
TulaneAmer0.004.2850.0036.830.00-1.13
East CarolinaAmer0.004.280.0033.13-0.00-1.44
South FloridaAmer0.002.6866.6751.670.000.09
TempleAmer0.002.6850.0053.980.000.21
Oral RobertsSum0.001.8533.3349.60-0.00-0.01
BaylorB122.501.85100.0070.352.500.75
Wichita St.MVC25.001.85100.0083.5025.001.24
Prairie View A&MSWAC25.001.820.0041.69-25.00-0.30
Oklahoma St.B122.501.81100.0056.492.500.24
Western IllinoisSum0.001.7933.3334.67-0.00-0.55
BradleyMVC0.001.7933.3323.65-0.00-0.94
USC UpstateASun0.001.7966.6755.370.000.19
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.001.780.0067.33-0.000.62
GonzagaWCC0.001.78100.0086.070.001.29
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.720.0034.24-0.00-0.54
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.280.0029.61-0.00-0.11
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2550.0052.390.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.2266.6758.810.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1920.0034.54-0.00-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.180.0039.25-0.00-0.04
TCUB122.500.18100.0057.582.500.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0038.56-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.180.0016.93-0.00-0.12
TexasB120.000.18100.0079.170.000.10
West VirginiaB120.000.18100.0070.420.000.07
Northern IowaMVC0.000.16100.0071.240.000.07
DetroitHorz0.000.1650.0054.870.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.150.0030.13-0.00-0.06
Kansas St.B120.000.1575.0057.780.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.1566.6745.370.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0039.51-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1525.0040.65-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.1566.6758.820.000.03
DenverSum0.000.1466.6764.880.000.04
IPFWSum0.000.1466.6760.760.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1450.0034.020.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1466.6746.410.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1450.0043.250.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.140.0036.85-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1433.3350.01-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0064.44-0.000.04
DrakeMVC0.000.130.0025.30-0.00-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0063.550.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0036.18-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0066.020.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.13100.0051.650.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1375.0047.380.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1340.0050.60-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.130.0033.27-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.120.0024.93-0.00-0.06
LamarSlnd0.000.120.0034.13-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0023.63-0.00-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0031.34-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1220.0029.26-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.12100.0067.390.000.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1266.6745.370.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0053.69-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0021.49-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC6.250.0940.0066.65-1.250.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0022.66-0.00-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0064.210.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0950.0063.110.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0933.3332.25-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3349.79-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0966.6738.720.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3326.24-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0047.400.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0042.98-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0050.520.000.00
RiceCUSA2.500.0933.3327.72-0.83-0.04
XavierBE0.000.09100.0080.240.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.0933.3368.63-0.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0034.21-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0950.0045.420.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0037.06-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0060.870.000.02
DukeACC0.000.09100.0085.500.000.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0043.080.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0074.040.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0650.0068.360.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.460.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0043.29-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0070.800.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0044.98-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3339.78-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.97-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.12-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.180.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0066.670.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.390.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.64-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6750.930.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0039.30-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.130.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0020.03-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0039.88-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0675.0058.190.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.090.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0640.0050.01-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.590.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.990.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.510.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0675.0074.330.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.730.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.960.000.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0070.020.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0054.950.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0041.06-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6756.000.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.040.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.470.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.400.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.840.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.57-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.67-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.43-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0031.710.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.80-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0066.880.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.940.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0045.520.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.070.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0037.880.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.140.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.80-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6765.570.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.05-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0072.970.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.660.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.810.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.16-0.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0084.910.000.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3344.46-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.20-0.000.02
VCUA100.000.0675.0067.590.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0042.28-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0069.590.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0046.080.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6746.440.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0053.38-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3334.36-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0043.71-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.570.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0044.69-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.80-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6757.060.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6757.340.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.170.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0325.0035.54-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.83-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.390.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.26-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.540.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0056.780.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0081.370.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3347.25-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0050.64-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.95-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0032.210.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.700.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3328.67-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.48-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0058.710.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0066.800.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0020.52-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0054.280.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0024.67-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.570.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.180.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0073.380.000.01