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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:83.0
Current RPI:83
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:56
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1483.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Wichita St. (17.0)MVCN56-71L0%0.0
11-24Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH77-49W100%0.0
11-27Baylor (10.0)B12N47-71L0%0.0
11-28Indiana St. (190.0)MVCN72-62W100%0.0
12-2Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH52-64L0%0.0
12-6Bradley (288.0)MVCH73-45W100%0.0
12-13Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H55-73L0%0.0
12-15North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH81-47W100%0.0
12-17USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH83-73W100%0.0
12-20Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH78-63W100%0.0
12-23Western Illinois (328.0)SumH78-51W100%0.0
12-31Houston (239.0)AmerH73-54W100%0.0
1-3Tulane (214.0)AmerH66-74L0%0.0
1-8SMU (12.0)AmerA73-59L0%0.0
1-11Houston (239.0)AmerA44-62W100%0.0
1-15Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH63-50W100%0.0
1-17UCF (257.0)AmerH99-79W100%0.0
1-21Tulsa (45.0)AmerA73-55L0%0.0
1-24Tulane (214.0)AmerA55-57W100%0.0
1-28East Carolina (219.0)AmerH70-58W100%0.0
1-31Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA82-64L0%0.0
2-4Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH74-48W100%0.0
2-7Temple (34.0)AmerH60-61L0%0.0
2-10East Carolina (219.0)AmerA64-53L0%0.0
2-14South Florida (273.0)AmerA48-75W100%0.0
2-19Connecticut (77.0)AmerH75-72W100%0.0
2-22UCF (257.0)AmerA65-75W100%0.0
2-26SMU (12.0)AmerH57-66L0%0.0
2-28Tulsa (45.0)AmerH72-74L0%0.0
3-5Connecticut (77.0)AmerA53-54W100%0.0
3-8Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA77-65L0%0.0
3-13Temple (34.0)AmerN75-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer26.2526.2551.3551.350.710.71
ConnecticutAmer4.054.0562.5062.501.011.01
TulsaAmer4.044.0468.9768.971.531.53
SMUAmer4.044.0480.0080.002.422.42
HoustonAmer3.983.9843.3343.33-0.53-0.53
TempleAmer3.973.9767.7467.741.411.41
East CarolinaAmer3.973.9737.9337.93-0.96-0.96
CincinnatiAmer3.973.9770.0070.001.591.59
UCFAmer3.943.9440.7440.74-0.73-0.73
TulaneAmer3.913.9146.4346.43-0.28-0.28
South FloridaAmer2.452.4526.6726.67-1.14-1.14
Wichita St.MVC1.711.7186.6786.671.261.26
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
Oral RobertsSum1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
BaylorB121.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
BradleyMVC1.661.6625.8125.81-0.81-0.81
Indiana St.MVC1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
USC UpstateASun1.621.6265.5265.520.500.50
Western IllinoisSum1.611.6124.0024.00-0.84-0.84
GonzagaWCC1.611.6193.7593.751.411.41
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.611.6178.5778.570.920.92
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.611.6186.2186.211.171.17
Jacksonville St.OVC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Missouri St.MVC0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.2425.8125.81-0.11-0.11
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
OklahomaB120.200.2068.7568.750.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.200.2090.9190.910.170.17
IUPUISum0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1818.7518.75-0.11-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Texas TechB120.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
West VirginiaB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
TCUB120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
TexasB120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1162.9662.960.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1058.3358.330.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
LamarSlnd0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
PacificWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00