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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Memphis

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:138.5
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:315
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:255



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-529.00.01%
25-629.00.01%
24-747.10.13%
23-851.90.69%
22-966.11.83%
21-1079.64.80%
20-1195.49.42%
19-12110.714.59%
18-13127.818.23%
17-14145.718.43%
16-15163.914.24%
15-16182.99.74%
14-17201.94.81%
13-18219.92.21%
12-19238.30.68%
11-20256.90.14%
10-21260.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Rio Grande Valley (312.5)WACH94-75W100%0.0
11-16Milwaukee (226.2)HorzH68-54W100%0.0
11-19Savannah St. (345.5)MEACH99-86W100%0.0
11-22McNeese St. (324.7)SlndH104-65W100%0.0
11-25Providence (61.9)BEN51-60L0%0.0
11-26Iowa (190.1)B10N100-92W100%0.0
11-30Jackson St. (305.7)SWACH84-69W100%0.0
12-3Mississippi (121.1)SECA85-77L0%0.0
12-10UAB (137.2)CUSAH0-065%4.5
12-13Monmouth (66.9)MAACH0-058%2.5
12-17Oklahoma (80.5)B12A0-022%-9.2
12-21Incarnate Word (227.9)SlndH0-087%13.4
12-27SMU (58.7)AmerH0-041%-2.7
12-30South Carolina (20.6)SECH0-027%-7.4
1-5Connecticut (118.0)AmerH0-060%3.1
1-8Tulane (284.4)AmerA0-074%7.6
1-11Tulsa (189.4)AmerA0-058%2.4
1-14South Florida (264.5)AmerH0-087%13.7
1-19Houston (41.9)AmerA0-017%-11.7
1-22UCF (46.2)AmerH0-038%-3.6
1-25Temple (51.5)AmerA0-028%-7.0
1-28East Carolina (173.0)AmerH0-072%7.0
2-2South Florida (264.5)AmerA0-073%7.4
2-4UCF (46.2)AmerA0-021%-9.8
2-7Tulsa (189.4)AmerH0-077%8.7
2-12Temple (51.5)AmerH0-048%-0.7
2-16Connecticut (118.0)AmerA0-040%-3.2
2-23Cincinnati (18.6)AmerA0-010%-15.4
2-26Houston (41.9)AmerH0-033%-5.4
3-2Tulane (284.4)AmerH0-088%13.9
3-4SMU (58.7)AmerA0-023%-8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisAmer28.4126.2871.4352.0512.171.08
TulaneAmer0.004.0412.5024.15-0.00-2.09
SMUAmer0.004.0266.6766.550.001.33
HoustonAmer0.004.0175.0075.170.002.02
South FloridaAmer0.004.0157.1434.190.00-1.27
UCFAmer0.003.9885.7176.180.002.09
TempleAmer0.003.9875.0065.000.001.19
ConnecticutAmer0.003.9842.8644.51-0.00-0.44
TulsaAmer0.003.9850.0038.080.00-0.95
CincinnatiAmer0.002.5187.5082.190.001.61
East CarolinaAmer0.002.5170.0050.750.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd6.251.750.0018.64-6.25-1.10
South CarolinaSEC0.001.75100.0078.350.000.99
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC6.601.6922.2223.73-3.67-0.89
IowaB106.951.6750.0039.690.00-0.34
MississippiSEC6.251.6771.4346.262.68-0.12
OklahomaB120.001.6771.4347.000.00-0.10
Incarnate WordSlnd0.001.6425.0044.01-0.00-0.20
MonmouthMAAC0.001.6477.7873.220.000.76
Savannah St.MEAC6.601.640.0019.81-6.60-0.99
Jackson St.SWAC6.251.6116.6744.68-4.17-0.17
MilwaukeeHorz6.251.6142.8639.27-0.89-0.35
ProvidenceBE6.251.6175.0058.613.120.28
UABCUSA0.001.6150.0060.680.000.34
New OrleansSlnd0.000.2140.0041.72-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1955.5642.150.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1985.7157.280.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.620.1860.0062.420.120.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1825.0055.44-0.000.02
Texas St.SB0.780.1750.0044.180.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC1.050.1725.0031.76-0.53-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1771.4354.010.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1675.0047.520.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.390.1671.4358.170.170.03
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0084.740.000.11
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1542.8637.05-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.450.1542.8650.33-0.060.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1412.5031.01-0.00-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.1440.0058.88-0.000.02
Ohio St.B100.790.1477.7862.010.440.03
Iowa St.B120.390.1475.0071.330.200.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1362.5044.840.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.390.1371.4337.680.17-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0038.78-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0057.950.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1242.8640.38-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1240.0054.81-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1220.0042.14-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.450.1262.5074.160.110.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1125.0041.19-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.1150.0038.730.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0026.22-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0022.47-0.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1112.5033.18-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.1116.6738.83-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.390.110.0022.75-0.39-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1150.0064.910.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.450.1120.0017.37-0.27-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1128.5738.92-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.11100.0076.070.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.450.1162.5053.550.110.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1162.5062.080.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1112.5037.11-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1155.5647.600.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1157.1450.790.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.1128.5752.65-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1187.5069.040.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1177.7872.930.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4347.690.00-0.00
VermontAE0.350.1162.5071.400.090.05
PennIvy0.000.1133.3356.66-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1144.4436.20-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.350.1125.0026.46-0.17-0.05
TCUB120.000.11100.0060.950.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.1150.0044.700.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.250.000.07
Rhode IslandA100.350.1166.6770.400.120.04
MichiganB100.000.1077.7865.840.000.03
Seton HallBE0.350.1075.0054.480.170.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1022.2232.01-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0925.0045.82-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0023.62-0.00-0.05
Texas TechB120.000.0987.5061.660.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.77-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.390.0975.0072.800.200.04
St. Francis NYNEC1.050.0812.5026.05-0.79-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0013.32-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.90-0.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0877.7886.650.000.06
North FloridaASun0.000.0812.5034.49-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.54-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0850.0066.380.000.03
PurdueB100.780.0877.7877.640.430.05
TroySB0.000.0842.8636.07-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0825.0030.02-0.17-0.03
KansasB120.000.0888.8977.470.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0814.2935.05-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0866.6761.690.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0828.5730.43-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0857.1451.810.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.390.0887.5075.730.290.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.910.000.05
AlbanyAE0.000.0842.8660.66-0.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.830.000.04
CreightonBE0.390.08100.0076.540.390.04
New HampshireAE0.350.0862.5062.120.090.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.390.0842.8645.34-0.06-0.01
VirginiaACC0.690.0888.8978.430.540.04
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.880.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.51-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.24-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0657.1457.780.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.390.0683.3379.920.260.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.700.0575.0055.480.350.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.07-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.490.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.370.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0537.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0533.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0542.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0588.8956.710.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0528.5746.79-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0557.1472.530.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0537.5028.47-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0557.1453.860.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0585.7177.000.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0550.0046.820.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7175.250.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0537.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0562.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0537.5038.08-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1451.740.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0562.5050.630.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0537.5047.44-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.220.000.03
MontanaBSky0.780.0525.0048.70-0.39-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.49-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0571.4365.470.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0555.5646.770.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0577.7876.550.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0550.0056.890.000.01
BrownIvy0.350.0550.0043.770.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.42-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.080.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0562.5055.890.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0588.8967.470.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3351.98-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0566.6751.140.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.540.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0557.1456.540.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0544.4434.60-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0577.7864.250.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.030.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0557.1444.830.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.75-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0566.6746.170.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0048.980.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5737.54-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0587.5050.250.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.860.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3350.05-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.600.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.71-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.05100.0076.400.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0542.8663.63-0.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0362.5052.400.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.780.0371.4363.080.330.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.390.0342.8643.55-0.06-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.390.0360.0069.260.080.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.06-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0020.21-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.310.0357.1450.730.040.00
Portland St.BSky0.310.0340.0043.88-0.06-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.0342.8638.35-0.04-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.450.0328.5723.02-0.19-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0357.1464.500.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.390.0362.5060.090.100.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.390.0342.8656.48-0.060.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.32-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.390.0325.0040.17-0.20-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.390.0344.4453.29-0.040.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0041.460.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.99-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0311.1132.47-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0314.2923.40-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.68-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0388.8966.920.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.350.0337.5050.92-0.090.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3355.64-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
Notre DameACC0.350.03100.0076.970.350.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0328.5724.39-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01