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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Memphis

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:12.0
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:73
Current Record:30-4
Expected Record:30-4
Current Conf Record:19-0
Expected Conf Record:19-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:59


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-412.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Memphis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12North Florida (230.0)ASunH81-66W100%0.0
11-17Samford (291.0)SCH65-54W100%0.0
11-22Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10N78-65L0%0.0
11-23Minnesota (34.0)B10N75-84L0%0.0
11-24Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCN47-52W100%0.0
11-29Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCH93-65W100%0.0
12-5Ohio (67.0)MACH84-58W100%0.0
12-8Austin Peay (319.0)OVCH83-65W100%0.0
12-15Louisville (3.0)BEH78-87L0%0.0
12-20Lipscomb (237.0)ASunH62-56W100%0.0
12-28Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndH72-57W100%0.0
12-30Loyola MD (99.0)MAACH78-64W100%0.0
1-4Tennessee (59.0)SECA80-85W100%0.0
1-9East Carolina (100.0)CUSAH67-54W100%0.0
1-12UAB (144.0)CUSAA53-69W100%0.0
1-16Rice (324.0)CUSAA51-77W100%0.0
1-19Harvard (93.0)IvyH60-50W100%0.0
1-22Tulane (175.0)CUSAH71-60W100%0.0
1-26Marshall (208.0)CUSAH73-72W100%0.0
1-30East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA68-75W100%0.0
2-2Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH94-64W100%0.0
2-6Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAA52-60W100%0.0
2-9Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAA76-89W100%0.0
2-13Central Florida (103.0)CUSAH93-71W100%0.0
2-16Marshall (208.0)CUSAA59-71W100%0.0
2-20Houston (197.0)CUSAH81-74W100%0.0
2-23Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAH89-73W100%0.0
2-26Xavier (87.0)A10A64-62L0%0.0
3-2Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA67-76W100%0.0
3-5Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA54-56W100%0.0
3-9UAB (144.0)CUSAH86-71W100%0.0
3-14Tulane (175.0)CUSAN81-68W100%0.0
3-15Tulsa (127.0)CUSAA74-85W100%0.0
3-16Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAN91-79W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Memphis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Memphis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Memphis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MemphisCUSA26.2526.2587.1887.1819.5219.52
Southern MississippiCUSA5.075.0779.3179.312.972.97
UABCUSA3.673.6750.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA3.643.6441.3841.38-0.63-0.63
East CarolinaCUSA3.603.6058.3358.330.600.60
TulsaCUSA3.583.5855.1755.170.370.37
Central FloridaCUSA3.573.5766.6766.671.191.19
TulaneCUSA3.553.5560.0060.000.710.71
Texas El PasoCUSA2.192.1958.0658.060.350.35
RiceCUSA2.122.1214.2914.29-1.52-1.52
HoustonCUSA2.122.1262.0762.070.510.51
Southern MethodistCUSA2.122.1246.6746.67-0.14-0.14
Austin PeayOVC1.571.5721.4321.43-0.90-0.90
Tennessee MartinOVC1.571.5725.9325.93-0.76-0.76
LipscombASun1.571.5739.2939.29-0.34-0.34
North FloridaASun1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
SamfordSC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
Oral RobertsSlnd1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
LouisvilleBE1.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
OhioMAC1.521.5275.0075.000.760.76
XavierA101.521.5253.3353.330.100.10
HarvardIvy1.501.5069.2369.230.580.58
MinnesotaB101.491.4961.2961.290.340.34
TennesseeSEC1.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
Virginia CommonwealthA101.491.4975.7675.760.770.77
Northern IowaMVC1.491.4956.6756.670.200.20
Loyola MDMAAC1.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
BelmontOVC0.220.2280.0080.000.130.13
Wichita St.MVC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
MassachusettsA100.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
StetsonASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
KentuckySEC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1510.0010.00-0.12-0.12
Northern KentuckyASun0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
South FloridaBE0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
CreightonMVC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Western KentuckySB0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
CharlotteA100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Georgia St.CAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
DaytonA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
RichmondA100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1028.0028.00-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
DrakeMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0985.1985.190.070.07
LibertyBSth0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.090.090.000.00-0.09-0.09
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
ToledoMAC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
DenverWAC0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
FurmanSC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
College of CharlestonSC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
OklahomaB120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
DukeACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Notre DameBE0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
SyracuseBE0.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0480.6580.650.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00