Binghamton

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	336.0
Current RPI:	336
Expected SOS:	227
Current SOS:	227
Current Record:	2-27
Expected Record:	2-27
Current Conf Record:	1-16
Expected Conf Record:	1-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-12
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	342
Expected OOC SOS:	294

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
2-27	336.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	71-45	L	0%
11-11	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	49-58	L	0%
11-14	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	75-52	L	0%
11-16	Army (205.0)	Pat	A	85-76	L	0%
11-18	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	62-54	W	100%
11-28	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	A	65-54	L	0%
12-1	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	70-71	L	0%
12-3	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	65-77	L	0%
12-8	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	78-56	L	0%
12-11	Michigan (20.0)	B10	A	67-39	L	0%
12-28	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	74-47	L	0%
12-30	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	77-79	L	0%
1-2	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	71-68	L	0%
1-7	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	59-71	L	0%
1-9	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	37-62	L	0%
1-12	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	83-59	L	0%
1-16	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	61-37	L	0%
1-19	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	56-57	W	100%
1-26	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	45-63	L	0%
1-30	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	58-61	L	0%
2-2	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	79-46	L	0%
2-6	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	62-76	L	0%
2-9	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	58-79	L	0%
2-12	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	73-47	L	0%
2-16	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	60-64	L	0%
2-23	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	68-56	L	0%
2-28	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	61-78	L	0%
3-3	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	59-49	L	0%
3-9	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	N	72-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Binghamton	AE	26.40	26.40	7.09	7.09	-22.65	-22.65
Stony Brook	AE	6.05	6.05	74.07	74.07	2.91	2.91
Albany	AE	4.63	4.63	68.75	68.75	1.74	1.74
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.50	4.50	17.86	17.86	-2.89	-2.89
Vermont	AE	4.48	4.48	63.33	63.33	1.20	1.20
New Hampshire	AE	4.44	4.44	23.08	23.08	-2.39	-2.39
Maine	AE	4.41	4.41	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Hartford	AE	4.39	4.39	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Boston University	AE	4.36	4.36	55.56	55.56	0.48	0.48
Cornell	Ivy	2.04	2.04	37.93	37.93	-0.49	-0.49
Brown	Ivy	2.04	2.04	42.31	42.31	-0.31	-0.31
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.04	2.04	54.84	54.84	0.20	0.20
Bryant	NEC	1.98	1.98	62.07	62.07	0.48	0.48
Colgate	Pat	1.98	1.98	32.26	32.26	-0.70	-0.70
Navy	Pat	1.97	1.97	20.69	20.69	-1.15	-1.15
Army	Pat	1.92	1.92	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.92	1.92	64.52	64.52	0.56	0.56
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.90	1.90	26.67	26.67	-0.89	-0.89
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.87	1.87	31.03	31.03	-0.71	-0.71
Monmouth	NEC	1.84	1.84	30.00	30.00	-0.73	-0.73
Michigan	B10	1.72	1.72	77.42	77.42	0.95	0.95
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.44	0.44	29.63	29.63	-0.18	-0.18
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.42	0.42	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.41	0.41	41.38	41.38	-0.07	-0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.41	0.41	43.33	43.33	-0.05	-0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.37	0.37	31.03	31.03	-0.14	-0.14
Marist	MAAC	0.37	0.37	32.26	32.26	-0.13	-0.13
Canisius	MAAC	0.37	0.37	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.36	0.36	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.35	0.35	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
American	Pat	0.31	0.31	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.30	0.30	25.00	25.00	-0.15	-0.15
Harvard	Ivy	0.29	0.29	66.67	66.67	0.10	0.10
Bucknell	Pat	0.28	0.28	84.38	84.38	0.19	0.19
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.28	0.28	22.58	22.58	-0.15	-0.15
Niagara	MAAC	0.25	0.25	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.25	0.25	68.97	68.97	0.10	0.10
Wagner	NEC	0.25	0.25	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.23	0.23	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.22	0.22	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.20	0.20	17.24	17.24	-0.13	-0.13
Long Island	NEC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01