live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:270.8
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:300
Current SOS:328
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8123.00.01%
19-9108.80.05%
18-10138.30.13%
17-11158.50.65%
16-12182.71.91%
15-13202.44.38%
14-14224.39.02%
13-15244.814.70%
12-16264.717.69%
11-17282.918.81%
10-18298.515.07%
9-19311.910.32%
8-20322.84.83%
7-21332.11.73%
6-22337.70.54%
5-23341.90.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Cornell (260.9)IvyH68-62W100%0.0
11-14St. John's (167.9)BEA77-61L0%0.0
11-16Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH72-70W100%0.0
11-18VCU (31.1)A10A81-42L0%0.0
11-23Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA69-53L0%0.0
11-24Long Beach St. (199.2)BWN64-72W100%0.0
11-27FIU (267.5)CUSAA74-57L0%0.0
12-3St. Francis PA (251.0)NECA0-034%-4.8
12-7Colgate (231.7)PatA0-028%-7.0
12-10Loyola MD (218.3)PatH0-049%-0.3
12-17Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-068%5.6
12-21Army (208.3)PatA0-023%-8.8
1-5UMBC (212.5)AEA0-027%-7.3
1-8UMass Lowell (255.3)AEH0-054%1.2
1-11Vermont (91.3)AEH0-021%-9.8
1-14New Hampshire (156.1)AEA0-021%-9.7
1-19Albany (156.7)AEA0-017%-11.4
1-22Stony Brook (298.6)AEH0-059%2.8
1-25Hartford (335.7)AEH0-072%7.1
1-29Maine (310.8)AEA0-050%-0.0
2-1UMBC (212.5)AEH0-046%-1.1
2-4UMass Lowell (255.3)AEA0-034%-5.0
2-6Vermont (91.3)AEA0-09%-16.0
2-9Albany (156.7)AEH0-033%-5.2
2-12New Hampshire (156.1)AEH0-038%-3.5
2-18Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-039%-3.4
2-22Hartford (335.7)AEA0-053%0.9
2-25Maine (310.8)AEH0-070%6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE28.8826.3547.8341.86-1.26-4.29
UMass LowellAE0.004.5325.0039.72-0.00-0.93
AlbanyAE0.004.4950.0059.350.000.84
Stony BrookAE0.004.4916.6732.55-0.00-1.57
HartfordAE0.714.4712.5021.53-0.54-2.54
MaineAE0.714.4616.6724.56-0.48-2.27
UMBCAE0.004.4580.0054.710.000.42
VermontAE0.004.4362.5070.660.001.83
New HampshireAE0.004.4250.0056.460.000.57
Loyola MDPat0.002.0333.3340.11-0.00-0.40
Central ConnecticutNEC7.142.0350.0038.990.00-0.45
ColgatePat0.512.0020.0040.25-0.31-0.39
CornellIvy7.141.9333.3331.81-2.38-0.70
ArmyPat0.001.9133.3344.47-0.00-0.21
St. Francis PANEC0.001.9140.0043.06-0.00-0.26
Delaware St.MEAC0.511.8816.6736.50-0.34-0.51
Florida Gulf CoastASun7.591.8540.0070.23-1.520.75
St. John'sBE7.651.8516.6731.71-5.10-0.67
FIUCUSA7.141.820.0031.32-7.14-0.68
Long Beach St.BW7.741.820.0040.71-7.74-0.34
VCUA107.651.8183.3377.425.101.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.3750.0053.530.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.3742.8647.69-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.3683.3357.990.000.06
DartmouthIvy0.000.310.0023.47-0.00-0.16
NavyPat0.000.3128.5743.62-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3142.8642.47-0.00-0.05
AmericanPat0.000.2816.6735.65-0.00-0.08
LehighPat0.000.2833.3367.01-0.000.09
BrownIvy0.000.2850.0042.420.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.2733.3364.14-0.000.08
NJITASun0.000.2542.8650.32-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.2471.4356.280.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2442.8638.05-0.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2212.5048.98-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.2237.5034.65-0.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.510.2233.3331.87-0.17-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2216.6729.36-0.00-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.510.2157.1448.240.07-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.1928.5750.20-0.000.00
SienaMAAC0.510.1928.5750.51-0.220.00
BucknellPat0.000.1875.0067.660.000.07
WagnerNEC0.000.1833.3353.85-0.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1842.8635.68-0.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1816.6734.31-0.00-0.06
TowsonCAA0.000.1650.0054.490.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1620.0034.22-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.1583.3344.770.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1328.5730.29-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.130.0043.04-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1325.0039.28-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1257.1448.600.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1257.1440.550.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1250.0027.250.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1240.0030.80-0.00-0.05
Penn St.B100.000.1262.5043.960.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0075.690.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1283.3368.880.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1050.0045.410.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.600.1057.1459.480.090.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.100.0034.23-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1014.2931.71-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.710.1040.0057.97-0.140.02
StetsonASun0.600.1028.5728.26-0.26-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.1040.0027.05-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1033.3338.20-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.510.0925.0063.95-0.260.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0920.0034.39-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.510.0983.3376.370.340.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0034.18-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.140.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6770.740.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0024.66-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0985.7173.010.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0950.0050.940.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.05
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0080.780.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0076.650.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0957.1443.680.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.510.0966.6765.810.170.03
Seton HallBE0.710.0971.4354.520.310.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0916.6743.29-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.510.0940.0050.71-0.100.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0983.3358.080.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0725.0053.29-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0019.51-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.070.0028.15-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0714.2933.07-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0771.4363.570.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0783.3380.550.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0760.0070.500.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.510.0671.4371.570.220.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.02
BaylorB121.110.06100.0074.461.110.03
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
Michigan St.B101.110.0650.0061.590.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.510.0616.6731.91-0.34-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.600.0387.5075.320.450.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.600.0357.1464.940.090.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.600.0383.3358.030.400.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.600.0383.3361.150.400.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.600.0342.8637.60-0.09-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
KansasB120.450.0385.7176.170.320.02
LouisvilleACC0.450.0385.7175.950.320.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.450.0385.7180.010.320.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UCLAP120.450.03100.0083.550.450.02
WashingtonP120.450.0357.1452.630.060.00
Wichita St.MVC0.450.0371.4386.030.190.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.510.0371.4349.770.22-0.00
MinnesotaB100.510.0385.7165.670.360.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.0350.0064.840.000.01