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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:325.0
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:311
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-14
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23325.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Loyola MD (274.0)PatH74-79L0%0.0
11-10Brown (229.0)IvyA74-57L0%0.0
11-13Cornell (334.0)IvyA79-89W100%0.0
11-16Navy (321.0)PatH50-68L0%0.0
11-23Radford (240.0)BSthH63-69L0%0.0
11-26Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA70-57L0%0.0
12-1Colgate (256.0)PatH64-93L0%0.0
12-4Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA70-74W100%0.0
12-7Syracuse (16.0)ACCA93-65L0%0.0
12-14Monmouth (292.0)MAACA74-46L0%0.0
12-23Buffalo (106.0)MACA87-57L0%0.0
12-28Bryant (177.0)NECH67-62W100%0.0
12-31Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A71-44L0%0.0
1-5Maine (330.0)AEA82-66L0%0.0
1-9New Hampshire (340.0)AEH67-38W100%0.0
1-11UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH59-71L0%0.0
1-15Stony Brook (165.0)AEA67-47L0%0.0
1-20Albany (185.0)AEA66-60L0%0.0
1-23Hartford (234.0)AEH54-56L0%0.0
1-26Vermont (101.0)AEA72-39L0%0.0
1-29UMBC (327.0)AEH61-73L0%0.0
2-1UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA62-55L0%0.0
2-4Stony Brook (165.0)AEH53-58L0%0.0
2-8Maine (330.0)AEH73-58W100%0.0
2-12New Hampshire (340.0)AEA71-72W100%0.0
2-19Albany (185.0)AEH48-57L0%0.0
2-22UMBC (327.0)AEA70-72W100%0.0
2-27Hartford (234.0)AEA89-83L0%0.0
3-2Vermont (101.0)AEH82-92L0%0.0
3-8Hartford (234.0)AEN69-42L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE26.3826.3825.0025.00-13.19-13.19
HartfordAE5.875.8746.6746.67-0.39-0.39
Stony BrookAE4.424.4266.6766.671.471.47
AlbanyAE4.404.4053.3353.330.290.29
VermontAE4.334.3364.2964.291.241.24
UMBCAE4.334.3325.9325.93-2.08-2.08
New HampshireAE4.284.2818.5218.52-2.69-2.69
MaineAE4.214.2115.3815.38-2.91-2.91
UMass LowellAE4.184.1828.0028.00-1.84-1.84
Loyola MDPat1.971.9732.1432.14-0.70-0.70
NavyPat1.951.9525.0025.00-0.97-0.97
BrownIvy1.931.9350.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat1.921.9237.9337.93-0.46-0.46
CornellIvy1.921.923.853.85-1.77-1.77
BryantNEC1.891.8956.6756.670.250.25
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.831.8343.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.811.8151.6151.610.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA101.751.7571.8871.880.770.77
SyracuseACC1.731.7383.8783.871.171.17
MonmouthMAAC1.721.7232.2632.26-0.61-0.61
RadfordBSth1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
BuffaloMAC1.671.6762.9662.960.430.43
DartmouthIvy0.460.4638.4638.46-0.11-0.11
Holy CrossPat0.430.4359.3859.380.080.08
NJITind0.400.4036.0036.00-0.11-0.11
YaleIvy0.390.3951.8551.850.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.3564.5264.520.100.10
AmericanPat0.310.3162.5062.500.080.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.300.3016.1316.13-0.20-0.20
Boston UniversityPat0.280.2870.5970.590.120.12
SienaMAAC0.270.2746.8846.88-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.260.2631.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Rhode IslandA100.260.2641.9441.94-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.250.2543.7543.75-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.240.2434.4834.48-0.08-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.13-0.13
ArmyPat0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
HarvardIvy0.210.2186.2186.210.150.15
LafayettePat0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
WagnerNEC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
RiderMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1721.2121.21-0.10-0.10
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
TowsonCAA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
FordhamA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
HofstraCAA0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01