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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:281.9
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:348
Current Record:8-11
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-10
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12198.70.03%
16-13216.10.20%
15-14232.11.66%
14-15246.76.42%
13-16261.716.61%
12-17276.727.43%
11-18291.326.75%
10-19304.815.21%
9-20316.64.94%
8-21326.80.74%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Morgan St. (312.3)MEACH76-59W100%0.0
11-13Cornell (280.4)IvyA94-84L0%0.0
11-16George Mason (224.7)A10A69-57L0%0.0
11-18Evansville (159.2)MVCA66-61L0%0.0
11-21Montana St. (220.8)BSkyN64-74L0%0.0
11-22Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWN65-70W100%0.0
11-29Delaware St. (350.3)MEACA64-85W100%0.0
12-2Colgate (220.5)PatH76-65W100%0.0
12-6Army (190.1)PatH71-66W100%0.0
12-9Loyola MD (314.8)PatA64-77W100%0.0
12-17Sacred Heart (316.1)NECA48-51W100%0.0
12-19Penn St. (114.6)B10A80-65L0%0.0
12-22LIU Brooklyn (276.3)NECH66-74L0%0.0
1-6Maine (331.6)AEH73-76L0%0.0
1-10New Hampshire (260.1)AEA71-67L0%0.0
1-13Hartford (253.5)AEA97-65L0%0.0
1-15Albany (119.0)AEH79-66W100%0.0
1-18Stony Brook (196.4)AEA77-66L0%0.0
1-21UMass Lowell (308.7)AEH71-79L0%0.0
1-24UMBC (174.2)AEA0-025%-7.7
1-27New Hampshire (260.1)AEH0-050%-0.1
1-31Vermont (55.0)AEH0-014%-11.9
2-3Maine (331.6)AEA0-058%2.4
2-8UMBC (174.2)AEH0-045%-1.3
2-15Stony Brook (196.4)AEH0-042%-2.3
2-18UMass Lowell (308.7)AEA0-046%-1.1
2-21Vermont (55.0)AEA0-05%-18.3
2-24Hartford (253.5)AEH0-062%3.5
2-27Albany (119.0)AEA0-011%-13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE26.3526.3544.7141.23-2.79-4.62
UMass LowellAE3.134.4029.4130.55-1.29-1.71
UMBCAE0.564.3755.5654.820.060.42
HartfordAE3.104.3747.3744.23-0.16-0.50
AlbanyAE3.064.3275.0072.071.531.91
MaineAE2.904.315.5610.69-2.57-3.39
Stony BrookAE2.974.3133.3342.69-0.99-0.63
VermontAE0.354.2975.0076.960.182.31
New HampshireAE2.844.2829.4137.39-1.17-1.08
LIU BrooklynNEC2.912.0236.8440.53-0.76-0.38
ColgatePat2.862.0052.9452.920.170.12
Sacred HeartNEC2.841.9631.5834.62-1.05-0.60
ArmyPat2.701.9164.7162.680.800.48
Loyola MDPat2.851.9123.5329.72-1.51-0.77
Delaware St.MEAC2.631.850.009.41-2.63-1.50
Morgan St.MEAC2.771.8431.2541.15-1.04-0.33
CornellIvy2.781.8228.5730.56-1.19-0.71
George MasonA102.851.8142.1139.35-0.45-0.39
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.771.7818.7520.01-1.73-1.07
Penn St.B102.701.7560.0054.280.540.15
EvansvilleMVC2.631.7250.0045.640.00-0.15
Montana St.BSky2.631.7247.0645.79-0.15-0.15
Boston UniversityPat0.500.4250.0053.260.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.340.3621.4326.35-0.20-0.17
Holy CrossPat0.420.3326.3230.49-0.20-0.13
ColumbiaIvy0.500.3320.0032.25-0.30-0.12
BucknellPat0.290.3061.9068.020.070.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.3052.3848.530.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.330.299.5217.12-0.27-0.19
LafayettePat0.440.2722.2227.47-0.24-0.12
AmericanPat0.290.2526.3228.11-0.14-0.11
WagnerNEC0.270.2464.7164.570.080.07
NavyPat0.300.2260.0055.160.060.02
BrownIvy0.210.2250.0045.140.00-0.02
LehighPat0.150.1838.8944.75-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.189.5217.90-0.11-0.12
YaleIvy0.060.1841.1847.56-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.270.1865.0054.670.080.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.1842.1144.96-0.04-0.02
George WashingtonA100.280.1845.0043.48-0.03-0.02
MarylandB100.130.1870.0065.250.050.05
MassachusettsA100.210.1850.0046.810.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1835.0031.83-0.04-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.200.1752.9459.250.010.03
MaristMAAC0.290.1521.0522.02-0.17-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.280.1543.7554.11-0.040.01
RutgersB100.140.1555.0046.690.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.1533.3335.21-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.260.1423.5332.57-0.14-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1357.1453.050.030.01
TowsonCAA0.150.1263.1665.970.040.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1237.5046.690.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1210.0019.63-0.12-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1218.7536.82-0.04-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.210.1238.8944.08-0.05-0.01
NJITASun0.210.1238.8942.61-0.05-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1266.6773.210.000.06
Fresno St.MWC0.290.1266.6763.420.100.03
MontanaBSky0.210.1270.5973.150.090.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1265.0057.880.040.02
FordhamA100.140.1231.5829.06-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.260.1255.0050.330.030.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1250.0051.640.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1157.1460.410.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.1128.5729.94-0.03-0.05
RichmondA100.000.1131.5834.360.00-0.04
PennIvy0.160.1064.7162.720.050.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0927.7834.50-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.0955.5656.740.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0943.7540.93-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0970.5969.630.030.04
Utah St.MWC0.150.0945.0045.49-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.220.0970.0058.090.090.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0963.1663.220.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0952.6347.390.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.140.0957.8959.490.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.0916.6724.45-0.10-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.0942.1143.51-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.140.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.140.0965.0058.540.040.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.0947.0641.41-0.01-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.140.0970.0060.470.050.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.210.0952.6355.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0985.0083.200.050.06
RiderMAAC0.130.0965.0065.320.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0961.9063.140.030.02
NebraskaB100.130.0966.6759.820.040.02
LouisvilleACC0.130.0978.9569.790.070.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6768.730.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0752.9460.220.010.01
SyracuseACC0.160.0668.4261.230.060.01
DelawareCAA0.160.0647.3743.02-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.460.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.73-0.04-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0610.5327.290.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.7920.91-0.05-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0627.7831.71-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0680.0078.940.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0623.5328.21-0.04-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0656.2556.830.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.070.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.560.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.540.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0640.0043.35-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0051.380.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0070.570.000.03
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.630.020.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0618.7518.360.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.0658.8262.440.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0630.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0617.6523.86-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.150.0689.4777.000.120.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0638.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.700.020.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.070.030.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0670.0068.300.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0625.0028.01-0.07-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0611.1115.29-0.06-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0644.4450.080.000.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.28-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.070.0658.8263.210.010.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0655.0052.470.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0678.9571.810.040.03
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0647.3748.770.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.130.0640.0030.87-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.140.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.0064.110.010.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0644.4444.92-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0673.6867.970.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.550.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0642.1146.09-0.02-0.00
IowaB100.060.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0680.9576.520.000.03
VCUA100.000.0660.0059.700.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0316.6716.16-0.06-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0366.6767.700.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0370.0071.230.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0350.0050.860.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.050.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.640.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.690.020.01
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.31-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.210.050.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.150.040.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0356.2557.400.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.890.020.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.450.010.01
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0357.8950.710.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.24-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0376.1970.740.000.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.630.020.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0365.0056.340.020.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.040.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0368.4263.960.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7159.990.020.01