Binghamton

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	320.0
Current RPI:	320
Expected SOS:	324
Current SOS:	324
Current Record:	9-20
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	2-14
Expected Conf Record:	2-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-11
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	254
Expected OOC SOS:	345

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	320.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	76-59	W	100%
11-13	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	94-84	L	0%
11-16	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	69-57	L	0%
11-18	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	66-61	L	0%
11-21	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	N	64-74	L	0%
11-22	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	N	65-70	W	100%
11-29	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	A	64-85	W	100%
12-2	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	76-65	W	100%
12-6	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	71-66	W	100%
12-9	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	64-77	W	100%
12-17	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	48-51	W	100%
12-19	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	80-65	L	0%
12-22	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	66-74	L	0%
1-6	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	73-76	L	0%
1-10	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	71-67	L	0%
1-13	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	97-65	L	0%
1-15	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	79-66	W	100%
1-18	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	77-66	L	0%
1-21	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	71-79	L	0%
1-24	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	69-57	L	0%
1-27	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	52-57	L	0%
1-31	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	54-68	L	0%
2-3	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	81-79	L	0%
2-8	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	68-78	L	0%
2-15	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	69-57	W	100%
2-18	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	74-69	L	0%
2-21	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	75-54	L	0%
2-24	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	57-67	L	0%
2-27	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	71-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Binghamton	AE	26.27	26.27	31.30	31.30	-9.83	-9.83
UMBC	AE	4.49	4.49	65.52	65.52	1.39	1.39
Hartford	AE	4.44	4.44	55.17	55.17	0.46	0.46
Vermont	AE	4.41	4.41	77.42	77.42	2.42	2.42
UMass Lowell	AE	4.40	4.40	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Stony Brook	AE	4.37	4.37	37.93	37.93	-1.06	-1.06
Albany	AE	4.32	4.32	68.97	68.97	1.64	1.64
Maine	AE	4.32	4.32	7.14	7.14	-3.70	-3.70
New Hampshire	AE	4.29	4.29	22.22	22.22	-2.38	-2.38
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	2.01	2.01	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	1.98	1.98	60.00	60.00	0.40	0.40
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.95	1.95	31.03	31.03	-0.74	-0.74
Loyola MD	Pat	1.93	1.93	27.59	27.59	-0.86	-0.86
Army	Pat	1.92	1.92	42.86	42.86	-0.27	-0.27
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.84	1.84	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.84	1.84	6.90	6.90	-1.58	-1.58
Cornell	Ivy	1.81	1.81	38.46	38.46	-0.42	-0.42
George Mason	A10	1.81	1.81	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.78	1.78	14.81	14.81	-1.25	-1.25
Penn St.	B10	1.75	1.75	60.61	60.61	0.37	0.37
Evansville	MVC	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Boston University	Pat	0.40	0.40	46.67	46.67	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.35	0.35	23.08	23.08	-0.19	-0.19
Holy Cross	Pat	0.34	0.34	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.34	0.34	73.53	73.53	0.16	0.16
Columbia	Ivy	0.32	0.32	26.92	26.92	-0.15	-0.15
Lafayette	Pat	0.29	0.29	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.28	0.28	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.28	0.28	9.68	9.68	-0.23	-0.23
Wagner	NEC	0.25	0.25	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
American	Pat	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.20	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.17	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	15.62	15.62	-0.11	-0.11
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.17	0.17	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Rutgers	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01