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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:233
Current Record:5-25
Expected Record:5-25
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:159



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-25332.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA82-39L0%0.0
11-17Providence (22.0)BEA66-45L0%0.0
11-22Manhattan (168.0)MAACN63-78L0%0.0
11-23Navy (252.0)PatN70-68L0%0.0
11-25Army (235.0)PatA80-54L0%0.0
11-29Cornell (227.0)IvyH54-68L0%0.0
12-3Boston University (198.0)PatA77-65L0%0.0
12-6Penn (254.0)IvyH70-79L0%0.0
12-11Colgate (194.0)PatA65-44L0%0.0
12-14Boston College (165.0)ACCA63-49L0%0.0
12-20St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H51-69L0%0.0
12-22Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA69-68L0%0.0
12-30Buffalo (28.0)MACH50-76L0%0.0
1-2UMass Lowell (266.0)AEA50-40L0%0.0
1-7Hartford (244.0)AEA69-59L0%0.0
1-10Maine (339.0)AEH65-46W100%0.0
1-14Albany (99.0)AEA73-58L0%0.0
1-17New Hampshire (193.0)AEH66-73L0%0.0
1-19Vermont (203.0)AEA64-44L0%0.0
1-25Stony Brook (107.0)AEH54-61L0%0.0
1-28UMBC (346.0)AEA56-68W100%0.0
1-31UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH76-69W100%0.0
2-3Hartford (244.0)AEH61-62L0%0.0
2-7Maine (339.0)AEA67-64L0%0.0
2-10Albany (99.0)AEH46-62L0%0.0
2-14New Hampshire (193.0)AEA66-48L0%0.0
2-18Vermont (203.0)AEH57-55W100%0.0
2-21Stony Brook (107.0)AEA64-52L0%0.0
2-28UMBC (346.0)AEH76-69W100%0.0
3-4Stony Brook (107.0)AEA62-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE26.3726.3714.6214.62-18.66-18.66
Stony BrookAE5.925.9262.0762.071.431.43
AlbanyAE4.414.4173.3373.332.062.06
New HampshireAE4.354.3555.5655.560.480.48
VermontAE4.304.3057.1457.140.610.61
MaineAE4.274.277.147.14-3.66-3.66
HartfordAE4.244.2440.7440.74-0.79-0.79
UMass LowellAE4.244.2438.4638.46-0.98-0.98
UMBCAE4.224.2214.2914.29-3.01-3.01
ColgatePat2.002.0045.1645.16-0.19-0.19
NavyPat1.971.9736.6736.67-0.52-0.52
Boston UniversityPat1.951.9539.2939.29-0.42-0.42
Boston CollegeACC1.911.9138.7138.71-0.43-0.43
ArmyPat1.911.9146.4346.43-0.14-0.14
ProvidenceBE1.871.8765.6265.620.590.59
Notre DameACC1.861.8684.8584.851.291.29
CornellIvy1.841.8439.2939.29-0.39-0.39
PennIvy1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
BuffaloMAC1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
St. BonaventureA101.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
DartmouthIvy0.430.4350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.410.4136.6736.67-0.11-0.11
NJITind0.390.3956.0056.000.050.05
AmericanPat0.350.3551.5251.520.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.330.3344.8344.83-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.310.3166.6766.670.100.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.300.3040.0040.00-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.300.3056.2556.250.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.300.3044.4444.44-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
LehighPat0.280.2851.7251.720.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.270.2753.3353.330.020.02
BrownIvy0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.260.2645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
HarvardIvy0.230.2374.0774.070.110.11
SienaMAAC0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
WagnerNEC0.200.2031.0331.03-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1716.1316.13-0.11-0.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
DaytonA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Seton HallBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1371.4371.430.060.06
SyracuseACC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
PittsburghACC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Miami FLACC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
DuquesneA100.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
USCP120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
VillanovaBE0.110.1194.1294.120.090.09
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01