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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:299.0
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:236
Current SOS:236
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:241



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22299.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A63-53L0%0.0
11-15Army (214.0)PatH60-75L0%0.0
11-18Cornell (244.0)IvyA76-59L0%0.0
11-24Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA75-81W100%0.0
11-28Boston University (196.0)PatH65-75L0%0.0
12-1Colgate (241.0)PatH69-50W100%0.0
12-5Michigan St. (12.0)B10A76-33L0%0.0
12-7Oakland (116.0)HorzA83-72L0%0.0
12-12Buffalo (90.0)MACA80-64L0%0.0
12-15St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH61-67L0%0.0
12-22FIU (270.0)CUSAH49-66L0%0.0
12-29Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH62-53W100%0.0
1-2Penn (283.0)IvyA80-45L0%0.0
1-6Stony Brook (59.0)AEH52-62L0%0.0
1-9New Hampshire (177.0)AEA58-43L0%0.0
1-13Hartford (292.0)AEH72-76L0%0.0
1-18Albany (107.0)AEA80-59L0%0.0
1-21Vermont (126.0)AEH52-61L0%0.0
1-24UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA57-64W100%0.0
1-27UMBC (335.0)AEH66-57W100%0.0
1-30Maine (317.0)AEA74-63L0%0.0
2-3Stony Brook (59.0)AEA76-51L0%0.0
2-6New Hampshire (177.0)AEH55-59L0%0.0
2-8Albany (107.0)AEH56-69L0%0.0
2-11Hartford (292.0)AEA54-68W100%0.0
2-17Vermont (126.0)AEA78-64L0%0.0
2-20UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH81-77W100%0.0
2-24UMBC (335.0)AEA80-79L0%0.0
2-27Maine (317.0)AEH78-66W100%0.0
3-2New Hampshire (177.0)AEA56-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE26.3826.3826.0926.09-12.61-12.61
New HampshireAE5.865.8653.8553.850.450.45
VermontAE4.414.4158.0658.060.710.71
AlbanyAE4.324.3272.4172.411.941.94
Stony BrookAE4.314.3178.5778.572.462.46
HartfordAE4.304.3026.6726.67-2.01-2.01
UMBCAE4.274.2720.0020.00-2.56-2.56
MaineAE4.264.2625.0025.00-2.13-2.13
UMass LowellAE4.234.2338.4638.46-0.98-0.98
ColgatePat2.022.0242.8642.86-0.29-0.29
Boston UniversityPat1.981.9853.3353.330.130.13
Central ConnecticutNEC1.971.9714.2914.29-1.41-1.41
CornellIvy1.871.8730.7730.77-0.72-0.72
ArmyPat1.861.8656.6756.670.250.25
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.831.8343.7543.75-0.23-0.23
St. Francis PANEC1.831.8339.2939.29-0.39-0.39
PennIvy1.761.7634.6234.62-0.54-0.54
BuffaloMAC1.741.7456.2556.250.220.22
St. BonaventureA101.741.7472.4172.410.780.78
Michigan St.B101.691.6984.8584.851.181.18
OaklandHorz1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
FIUCUSA1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Holy CrossPat0.440.4442.4242.42-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.390.3938.7138.71-0.09-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.370.3733.3333.33-0.12-0.12
Loyola MDPat0.330.3330.0030.00-0.13-0.13
YaleIvy0.310.3177.7877.780.170.17
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.3151.6151.610.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.300.3045.1645.16-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.290.2925.9325.93-0.14-0.14
WagnerNEC0.280.2867.7467.740.100.10
BryantNEC0.280.2823.3323.33-0.15-0.15
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.2840.0040.00-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.280.2853.3353.330.020.02
LehighPat0.270.2751.6151.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.250.2521.8821.88-0.14-0.14
NavyPat0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.240.2430.0030.00-0.10-0.10
ConnecticutAmer0.230.2370.5970.590.090.09
LafayettePat0.230.2320.0020.00-0.14-0.14
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.2231.2531.25-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
ColumbiaIvy0.180.1865.5265.520.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
SienaMAAC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
FordhamA100.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
RutgersB100.140.1419.3519.35-0.08-0.08
DuquesneA100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
SMUAmer0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00