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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:307.7
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:201
Current Record:5-18
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18250.20.06%
10-19268.81.16%
9-20284.18.71%
8-21298.226.52%
7-22310.636.14%
6-23320.822.18%
5-24328.75.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. Bonaventure (51.0)A10A63-53L0%0.0
11-15Army (220.5)PatH60-75L0%0.0
11-18Cornell (208.3)IvyA76-59L0%0.0
11-24Central Connecticut (350.4)NECA75-81W100%0.0
11-28Boston University (193.8)PatH65-75L0%0.0
12-1Colgate (223.3)PatH69-50W100%0.0
12-5Michigan St. (17.6)B10A76-33L0%0.0
12-7Oakland (113.0)HorzA83-72L0%0.0
12-12Buffalo (86.0)MACA80-64L0%0.0
12-15St. Francis PA (239.4)NECH61-67L0%0.0
12-22FIU (232.8)CUSAH49-66L0%0.0
12-29Mount St. Mary's (232.8)NECH62-53W100%0.0
1-2Penn (276.6)IvyA80-45L0%0.0
1-6Stony Brook (46.0)AEH52-62L0%0.0
1-9New Hampshire (198.8)AEA58-43L0%0.0
1-13Hartford (314.2)AEH72-76L0%0.0
1-18Albany (90.5)AEA80-59L0%0.0
1-21Vermont (150.4)AEH52-61L0%0.0
1-24UMass Lowell (275.1)AEA57-64W100%0.0
1-27UMBC (319.0)AEH66-57W100%0.0
1-30Maine (301.0)AEA74-63L0%0.0
2-3Stony Brook (46.0)AEA76-51L0%0.0
2-6New Hampshire (198.8)AEH55-59L0%0.0
2-8Albany (90.5)AEH0-013%-12.0
2-11Hartford (314.2)AEA0-042%-2.2
2-17Vermont (150.4)AEA0-08%-15.1
2-20UMass Lowell (275.1)AEH0-057%1.9
2-24UMBC (319.0)AEA0-031%-5.2
2-27Maine (301.0)AEH0-063%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE26.3426.3421.1023.90-15.22-13.75
AlbanyAE2.914.4173.9174.611.392.17
UMass LowellAE2.924.3733.3333.54-0.97-1.44
UMBCAE2.814.3525.0025.87-1.40-2.10
VermontAE2.814.3552.1754.770.120.41
MaineAE2.804.3431.8231.46-1.02-1.61
New HampshireAE4.824.3350.0049.440.00-0.05
HartfordAE2.714.3222.7322.75-1.48-2.35
Stony BrookAE4.784.2778.9581.322.772.68
Central ConnecticutNEC2.522.0513.6414.02-1.83-1.48
ColgatePat2.522.0547.6247.81-0.12-0.09
Boston UniversityPat2.472.0352.1754.040.110.16
CornellIvy2.321.9438.8937.86-0.52-0.47
ArmyPat2.321.9050.0051.720.000.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.311.9041.6747.03-0.39-0.11
St. Francis PANEC2.361.9047.6247.57-0.11-0.09
PennIvy2.221.8235.2935.26-0.65-0.54
BuffaloMAC2.271.8157.1457.460.320.27
St. BonaventureA102.271.8170.0067.860.910.65
Michigan St.B102.221.7582.6182.451.451.14
OaklandHorz2.221.7566.6766.910.740.59
FIUCUSA2.171.7238.1043.34-0.52-0.23
Holy CrossPat0.440.4239.1338.34-0.10-0.10
DartmouthIvy0.370.3731.5831.79-0.13-0.13
AmericanPat0.500.3630.4331.89-0.19-0.13
Loyola MDPat0.430.3634.7837.15-0.13-0.09
YaleIvy0.300.3373.6874.650.140.16
LIU BrooklynNEC0.330.3347.8348.91-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.380.3033.3337.25-0.13-0.08
NJITASun0.340.3054.1755.250.030.03
WagnerNEC0.280.3063.6465.030.080.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.3034.7837.07-0.07-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2937.5043.37-0.06-0.04
BrownIvy0.320.2831.5831.05-0.12-0.11
BryantNEC0.390.2725.0026.37-0.20-0.13
NavyPat0.340.2762.5062.450.090.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.2638.1037.44-0.05-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.300.2430.4326.50-0.12-0.11
LafayettePat0.350.2422.7324.04-0.19-0.13
Robert MorrisNEC0.330.2428.0030.73-0.15-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.250.2173.9172.480.120.10
HarvardIvy0.210.2135.0038.52-0.06-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.2150.0051.910.000.01
BucknellPat0.230.2154.5558.140.020.03
NiagaraMAAC0.190.2024.0024.57-0.10-0.10
ColumbiaIvy0.220.1966.6765.210.070.06
PrincetonIvy0.160.1972.2274.710.070.09
NortheasternCAA0.240.1845.8346.66-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.200.1864.0064.120.060.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.1736.8441.44-0.06-0.03
Notre DameACC0.200.1669.5765.850.080.05
FordhamA100.140.1555.0052.290.010.01
RutgersB100.140.1521.7420.35-0.08-0.09
DuquesneA100.140.1563.6456.430.040.02
MaristMAAC0.140.1422.7324.73-0.08-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1282.6178.890.110.07
CanisiusMAAC0.200.1244.0045.31-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1236.3633.47-0.03-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.1222.7324.97-0.05-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1130.4335.11-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.1152.3847.040.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.160.0965.2264.220.050.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0945.4546.30-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.160.0934.7834.15-0.05-0.03
SyracuseACC0.160.0966.6762.560.050.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0931.5831.80-0.06-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0938.1041.93-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0966.6763.420.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.0963.6459.440.030.02
MassachusettsA100.100.0940.9139.36-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0938.1040.73-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.150.0965.2261.070.040.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.7327.19-0.05-0.04
North FloridaASun0.100.0965.2267.140.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0961.9059.430.010.02
MarylandB100.140.0987.5083.690.100.06
KentuckySEC0.090.0973.9171.550.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.090.0920.0019.66-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0965.2266.090.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.0982.6177.740.060.05
ProvidenceBE0.090.0975.0070.940.050.04
PurdueB100.050.0979.1776.550.030.05
ToledoMAC0.090.0959.0960.070.020.02
Ohio St.B100.040.0858.3354.160.010.01
SMUAmer0.110.0690.9186.130.090.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0656.5260.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.0652.1751.590.000.00
La SalleA100.060.0620.0020.45-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0679.1780.760.060.04
DaytonA100.050.0686.3682.380.040.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0678.2674.420.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.260.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.420.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.420.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.62-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0663.1658.790.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.780.010.01
VCUA100.100.0673.9173.900.050.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0620.8323.63-0.05-0.03
ElonCAA0.090.0652.1750.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0670.8369.500.040.02
AkronMAC0.050.0681.8280.030.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0631.8230.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.11-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0642.8650.41-0.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0630.0034.56-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0621.7422.74-0.05-0.03
DetroitHorz0.040.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.040.0654.5556.000.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.065.007.23-0.04-0.05
IowaB100.090.0682.6180.580.060.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0659.0959.640.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0628.5726.96-0.02-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0633.3335.09-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0626.0923.72-0.02-0.03
TowsonCAA0.040.0665.2259.750.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0681.8283.040.030.04
Wake ForestACC0.040.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0660.8755.840.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0656.5257.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0630.4332.35-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.5213.52-0.05-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0376.1968.220.030.01
TempleAmer0.060.0363.6459.840.020.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0386.9686.370.040.02
TCUB120.050.0343.4837.22-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.47-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.92-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.58-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.710.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3332.99-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.610.010.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.72-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.490.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.98-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.15-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.32-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.040.020.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.060.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.48-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0336.8438.39-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0352.3850.410.000.00
FurmanSC0.040.0352.1753.310.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0361.9056.690.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.040.0378.2676.810.020.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.11-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0379.1774.020.000.01
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.810.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0372.0070.510.020.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0382.6178.050.030.02