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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Binghamton

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:303.0
Current RPI:311
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:220
Current Record:0-4
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:0-4
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:326
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13168.30.03%
15-14195.60.25%
14-15207.10.71%
13-16229.91.92%
12-17248.84.85%
11-18267.98.88%
10-19284.513.97%
9-20299.817.72%
8-21313.618.21%
7-22324.415.25%
6-23333.110.23%
5-24339.15.11%
4-25343.62.01%
3-26346.30.73%
2-27348.70.09%
1-28350.00.02%
-0-29350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Notre Dame (46.4)ACCA82-39L0%0.0
11-17Providence (20.8)BEA66-45L0%0.0
11-22Manhattan (185.5)MAACN63-78L0%0.0
11-23Navy (270.2)PatN70-68L0%0.0
11-25Army (133.1)PatA0-012%-14.3
11-29Cornell (275.7)IvyH0-050%-0.1
12-3Boston University (107.2)PatA0-09%-15.8
12-6Penn (314.3)IvyH0-060%3.0
12-11Colgate (220.9)PatA0-022%-9.2
12-14Boston College (162.2)ACCA0-09%-15.8
12-20St. Bonaventure (146.1)A10H0-023%-8.9
12-22Mount St. Mary's (260.4)NECA0-031%-5.8
12-30Buffalo (80.3)MACH0-021%-9.6
1-2UMass Lowell (263.7)AEA0-035%-4.5
1-7Hartford (273.3)AEA0-035%-4.5
1-10Maine (337.8)AEH0-077%8.9
1-14Albany (144.2)AEA0-010%-15.2
1-17New Hampshire (278.0)AEH0-052%0.7
1-19Vermont (159.7)AEA0-013%-13.3
1-25Stony Brook (105.4)AEH0-021%-9.6
1-28UMBC (292.0)AEA0-035%-4.7
1-31UMass Lowell (263.7)AEH0-059%2.7
2-3Hartford (273.3)AEH0-059%2.7
2-7Maine (337.8)AEA0-056%1.8
2-10Albany (144.2)AEH0-025%-8.0
2-14New Hampshire (278.0)AEA0-030%-6.4
2-18Vermont (159.7)AEH0-030%-6.1
2-21Stony Brook (105.4)AEA0-08%-16.8
2-28UMBC (292.0)AEH0-058%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BinghamtonAE30.3126.360.0028.93-30.31-11.11
UMass LowellAE0.004.3960.0040.700.00-0.82
New HampshireAE0.004.380.0040.05-0.00-0.87
MaineAE0.004.360.0016.54-0.00-2.92
AlbanyAE1.254.3633.3362.79-0.421.12
Stony BrookAE0.004.3333.3363.71-0.001.19
HartfordAE0.004.3375.0039.530.00-0.91
UMBCAE0.004.300.0036.93-0.00-1.12
VermontAE0.004.3033.3357.02-0.000.60
ColgatePat0.002.0625.0037.32-0.00-0.52
Boston UniversityPat0.002.0333.3359.82-0.000.40
Boston CollegeACC0.001.9940.0036.74-0.00-0.53
NavyPat15.001.990.0030.67-15.00-0.77
ArmyPat0.001.96100.0065.590.000.61
Notre DameACC15.001.9375.0072.057.500.85
ProvidenceBE15.001.93100.0070.2115.000.78
CornellIvy0.001.9033.3337.00-0.00-0.50
PennIvy0.001.810.0024.10-0.00-0.94
BuffaloMAC0.001.7866.6758.810.000.31
St. BonaventureA100.001.7566.6752.560.000.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.001.7533.3339.07-0.00-0.38
ManhattanMAAC12.501.720.0050.57-12.500.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.460.0034.81-0.00-0.14
NJITind0.000.4220.0027.91-0.00-0.19
Loyola MDPat0.000.4250.0032.050.00-0.15
Holy CrossPat0.000.36100.0064.010.000.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.3366.6766.090.000.11
YaleIvy0.000.3375.0069.180.000.13
AmericanPat0.000.3360.0057.920.000.05
BucknellPat0.000.3320.0035.82-0.00-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.310.0045.75-0.00-0.03
LehighPat0.000.300.0033.90-0.00-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2833.3330.55-0.00-0.11
BrownIvy0.000.2720.0037.46-0.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.000.2775.0064.540.000.08
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2733.3324.20-0.00-0.14
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2766.6765.570.000.08
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2766.6756.820.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.2450.0067.730.000.09
SienaMAAC0.000.2433.3360.10-0.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.2250.0054.140.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.210.0042.28-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.180.0028.50-0.00-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.180.0031.34-0.00-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.000.1825.0040.14-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA102.810.1780.0061.931.690.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1550.0047.540.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1550.0037.880.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.150.0033.80-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1516.6730.01-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1533.3344.46-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.14100.0065.090.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1466.6751.570.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.1475.0065.950.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6753.220.000.01
USCP120.000.1240.0028.54-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.12100.0054.620.000.01
FordhamA100.000.120.0024.54-0.00-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.12100.0059.320.000.02
DaytonA100.000.1275.0072.970.000.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1240.0033.57-0.00-0.04
AkronMAC0.000.1275.0069.590.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0053.170.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.12100.0043.380.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.12100.0085.500.000.08
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0059.940.000.02
Florida St.ACC2.810.1125.0042.98-1.41-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0078.600.000.06
RutgersB100.000.0966.6735.400.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6757.060.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0073.810.000.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0950.0054.950.000.01
NortheasternCAA2.810.09100.0075.312.810.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0055.84-0.000.01
La SalleA100.000.09100.0054.280.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0920.0021.70-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6774.460.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.25-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0059.570.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0042.83-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0087.980.000.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0038.810.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0055.630.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0073.380.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0960.0045.520.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0860.0051.710.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0051.910.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.570.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.80-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.52-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3347.25-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0633.3337.04-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.760.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0056.780.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0066.800.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.930.000.03
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.030.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0020.27-0.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6762.260.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0666.6766.030.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.180.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.490.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.070.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3343.21-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.62-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B101.250.0675.0073.300.620.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0058.710.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.130.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6732.480.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0081.370.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0070.800.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.230.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.130.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.280.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.740.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0035.180.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0051.940.000.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0080.240.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0074.960.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0325.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0041.06-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3350.07-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.01-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0026.64-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0375.0056.870.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.31-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.43-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.790.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0050.880.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.460.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3350.01-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0065.370.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.390.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0070.420.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.620.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0022.57-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC1.250.030.0029.05-1.25-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.03-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0375.0062.270.000.01