Binghamton

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	343.4
Current RPI:	343
Expected SOS:	317
Current SOS:	296
Current Record:	0-23
Expected Record:	1-28
Current Conf Record:	0-11
Expected Conf Record:	1-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-16
Current OOC Record:	0-12
Expected OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC RPI:	342
Expected OOC SOS:	290

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-24	335.0	0.07%
4-25	338.8	0.82%
3-26	341.5	6.40%
2-27	343.0	24.92%
1-28	343.8	44.24%
0-29	344.0	23.54%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Binghamton.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	74-78	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	76-61	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Fordham (243.2)	A10	A	64-49	L	0%	0.0
11-20	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	66-43	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	88-59	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	50-70	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	63-77	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	82-62	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Morehead St. (187.8)	OVC	H	45-64	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	H	44-68	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	75-66	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	51-94	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	61-76	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	54-60	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	68-49	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	73-53	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	57-69	L	0%	0.0
1-19	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	64-58	L	0%	0.0
1-22	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	49-64	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	74-68	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	67-59	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	82-48	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	53-68	L	0%	0.0
2-12	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	0-0		20%	-9.2
2-15	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	0-0		53%	0.8
2-18	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	0-0		16%	-10.8
2-21	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	0-0		6%	-16.8
2-23	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	0-0		11%	-13.4
2-26	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	0-0		11%	-13.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Binghamton's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Binghamton's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Binghamton.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Binghamton	AE	26.41	26.34	0.00	3.78	-26.41	-24.35
Boston University	AE	5.09	4.38	43.48	48.56	-0.66	-0.13
Albany	AE	2.97	4.35	58.33	58.07	0.50	0.70
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.81	4.31	9.52	12.11	-2.28	-3.27
Hartford	AE	2.81	4.31	13.64	15.85	-2.04	-2.95
Stony Brook	AE	4.97	4.31	63.16	65.49	1.31	1.33
New Hampshire	AE	2.79	4.30	31.58	34.09	-1.03	-1.37
Vermont	AE	2.86	4.29	58.33	60.12	0.48	0.87
Maine	AE	4.83	4.28	44.44	45.71	-0.54	-0.37
Colgate	Pat	2.46	2.02	27.27	26.98	-1.12	-0.93
Bucknell	Pat	2.51	1.96	72.73	74.11	1.14	0.95
Cornell	Ivy	2.46	1.93	33.33	39.19	-0.82	-0.42
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.31	1.90	18.18	21.98	-1.47	-1.06
Manhattan	MAAC	2.36	1.90	66.67	68.04	0.79	0.69
Canisius	MAAC	2.31	1.90	13.64	16.94	-1.68	-1.25
Hofstra	CAA	2.40	1.89	29.17	33.24	-1.00	-0.64
Army	Pat	2.32	1.84	38.10	39.56	-0.55	-0.38
Fordham	A10	2.26	1.78	38.10	32.16	-0.54	-0.64
Drexel	CAA	2.22	1.78	78.26	77.35	1.25	0.97
Morehead St.	OVC	2.22	1.75	42.86	45.03	-0.32	-0.17
Missouri	B12	2.17	1.72	90.91	86.75	1.78	1.27
Radford	BSth	0.00	1.72	8.70	10.57	-0.00	-1.36
Marist	MAAC	0.52	0.54	34.78	33.43	-0.16	-0.18
Niagara	MAAC	0.37	0.40	37.50	41.54	-0.09	-0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.34	0.38	77.27	73.45	0.18	0.18
Rider	MAAC	0.43	0.38	37.50	38.52	-0.11	-0.09
Holy Cross	Pat	0.35	0.37	40.91	42.05	-0.06	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.27	0.34	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.30	0.33	27.27	23.80	-0.14	-0.18
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.34	0.33	14.29	17.17	-0.24	-0.22
Towson	CAA	0.27	0.29	4.00	5.26	-0.25	-0.26
Northeastern	CAA	0.31	0.29	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.30	0.27	65.22	63.79	0.09	0.08
Lehigh	Pat	0.30	0.27	73.91	74.91	0.14	0.13
Fairfield	MAAC	0.28	0.27	54.55	54.30	0.03	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.26	9.52	13.19	-0.19	-0.19
Iona	MAAC	0.32	0.26	79.17	80.10	0.18	0.15
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.37	0.25	33.33	34.47	-0.12	-0.08
Delaware	CAA	0.28	0.23	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.22	0.23	76.00	72.50	0.12	0.10
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.21	72.22	63.19	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.29	0.21	20.83	20.60	-0.17	-0.12
La Salle	A10	0.23	0.21	70.83	68.82	0.10	0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.24	0.20	90.48	87.91	0.19	0.16
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.20	8.70	12.13	-0.20	-0.15
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.22	0.20	56.52	57.15	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.21	0.19	44.00	45.89	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.31	0.19	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.24	0.18	30.43	26.44	-0.10	-0.09
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.18	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.23	0.17	95.83	92.01	0.21	0.15
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.15	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.18	0.14	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.14	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.14	70.83	71.05	0.06	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.14	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.08	0.06
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.12	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.12	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.12	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.12	26.09	28.60	-0.04	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.18	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.05	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.11	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.11	81.82	80.43	0.08	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.11	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.18	0.11	60.87	61.37	0.04	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.16	0.09	65.22	62.65	0.05	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.09	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.09	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.09	26.32	28.83	-0.07	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.14	0.09	33.33	38.38	-0.05	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.14	0.09	21.74	22.76	-0.08	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.09	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.09	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.13	0.08	80.00	78.06	0.08	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.03	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.00	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.00	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.00	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.04	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.04	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.02	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.04	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.04	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.04	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.03	0.02