live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:20.0
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1020.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Siena (104.0)MAACH92-74W100%0.0
11-14Bryant (320.0)NECH113-75W100%0.0
11-17Kentucky (11.0)SECN63-74L0%0.0
11-20VCU (37.0)A10N71-79W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (106.0)BEN86-84W100%0.0
11-25Yale (44.0)IvyH80-61W100%0.0
11-29Utah St. (151.0)MWCH85-52W100%0.0
12-2Indiana (24.0)B10H94-74W100%0.0
12-5Buffalo (90.0)MACH82-59W100%0.0
12-15Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH99-65W100%0.0
12-19Utah (8.0)P12N75-77L0%0.0
12-28Elon (160.0)CAAH105-66W100%0.0
12-30Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH103-81W100%0.0
1-2Boston College (250.0)ACCA64-81W100%0.0
1-6Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA75-91W100%0.0
1-9Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH82-58W100%0.0
1-13Clemson (131.0)ACCA68-63L0%0.0
1-16Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH91-95L0%0.0
1-18Syracuse (72.0)ACCH62-64L0%0.0
1-23North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA78-88W100%0.0
1-25Miami FL (9.0)ACCA80-69L0%0.0
2-2Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA71-80W100%0.0
2-6North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH88-80W100%0.0
2-8Louisville (17.0)ACCH72-65W100%0.0
2-13Virginia (3.0)ACCH63-62W100%0.0
2-17North Carolina (5.0)ACCA73-74W100%0.0
2-20Louisville (17.0)ACCA71-64L0%0.0
2-25Florida St. (82.0)ACCH80-65W100%0.0
2-28Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA76-62L0%0.0
3-1Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH79-71W100%0.0
3-5North Carolina (5.0)ACCH72-76L0%0.0
3-9North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCN92-89W100%0.0
3-10Notre Dame (31.0)ACCN84-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.1126.1166.4366.438.588.58
North Carolina St.ACC5.115.1153.3353.330.340.34
Wake ForestACC3.683.6837.9337.93-0.89-0.89
North CarolinaACC3.673.6784.3884.382.522.52
Notre DameACC3.643.6463.3363.330.970.97
LouisvilleACC3.553.5575.8675.861.831.83
VirginiaACC2.202.2081.2581.251.371.37
Georgia TechACC2.182.1859.3859.380.410.41
Florida St.ACC2.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
SyracuseACC2.152.1558.0658.060.350.35
PittsburghACC2.152.1563.3363.330.570.57
Miami FLACC2.152.1577.4277.421.181.18
Virginia TechACC2.132.1359.3859.380.400.40
Boston CollegeACC2.132.1322.5822.58-1.17-1.17
ClemsonACC2.082.0853.3353.330.140.14
IndianaB101.611.6180.6580.650.990.99
BryantNEC1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
VCUA101.581.5872.7372.730.720.72
GeorgetownBE1.561.5646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
KentuckySEC1.561.5675.7675.760.810.81
SienaMAAC1.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
YaleIvy1.541.5480.7780.770.950.95
ElonCAA1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
UtahP121.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
Long Beach St.BW1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
BuffaloMAC1.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
Georgia SouthernSB1.521.5242.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Utah St.MWC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
UCLAP120.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
CornellIvy0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
BucknellPat0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
DavidsonA100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
VillanovaBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
OregonP120.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
VermontAE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
AlbanyAE0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
TexasB120.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00