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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:9.0
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:6
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-89.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Davidson (126.0)SCH111-77W100%0.0
11-12Kansas (3.0)B12N94-83L0%0.0
11-15Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH97-64W100%0.0
11-18UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH91-55W100%0.0
11-19East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH83-74W100%0.0
11-24Vermont (101.0)AEH91-90W100%0.0
11-27Alabama (124.0)SECN74-64W100%0.0
11-29Arizona (2.0)P12N72-66L0%0.0
12-3Michigan (11.0)B10H79-69W100%0.0
12-16Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH85-66W100%0.0
12-19UCLA (14.0)P12N63-80W100%0.0
12-28Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH82-59W100%0.0
12-31Elon (162.0)SCN48-86W100%0.0
1-4Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA79-77L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH79-57W100%0.0
1-11Clemson (79.0)ACCA72-59L0%0.0
1-13Virginia (8.0)ACCH69-65W100%0.0
1-18North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH95-60W100%0.0
1-22Miami FL (110.0)ACCA46-67W100%0.0
1-25Florida St. (54.0)ACCH78-56W100%0.0
1-27Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA65-80W100%0.0
2-1Syracuse (16.0)ACCA91-89L0%0.0
2-4Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH83-63W100%0.0
2-8Boston College (207.0)ACCA68-89W100%0.0
2-15Maryland (78.0)ACCH69-67W100%0.0
2-18Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA51-68W100%0.0
2-20North Carolina (25.0)ACCA74-66L0%0.0
2-22Syracuse (16.0)ACCH66-60W100%0.0
2-25Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH66-48W100%0.0
3-5Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA82-72L0%0.0
3-8North Carolina (25.0)ACCH93-81W100%0.0
3-14Clemson (79.0)ACCN63-62W100%0.0
3-15North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCN75-67W100%0.0
3-16Virginia (8.0)ACCN72-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.1026.1077.6177.6114.4114.41
North Carolina St.ACC3.603.6065.6265.621.131.13
Wake ForestACC3.573.5751.6151.610.120.12
ClemsonACC3.573.5763.3363.330.950.95
VirginiaACC3.533.5384.3884.382.432.43
Georgia TechACC3.533.5351.6151.610.110.11
North CarolinaACC3.533.5373.3373.331.651.65
SyracuseACC3.503.5086.6786.672.572.57
PittsburghACC2.222.2275.7675.761.141.14
Florida St.ACC2.152.1561.2961.290.480.48
Boston CollegeACC2.132.1323.3323.33-1.13-1.13
Miami FLACC2.132.1353.1253.120.130.13
Notre DameACC2.122.1245.1645.16-0.21-0.21
MarylandACC2.082.0853.3353.330.140.14
Virginia TechACC2.062.0630.0030.00-0.82-0.82
DavidsonSC1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.571.5727.5927.59-0.70-0.70
East CarolinaCUSA1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
UNC AshevilleBSth1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
ElonSC1.541.5457.1457.140.220.22
UCLAP121.541.5478.7978.790.890.89
ArizonaP121.541.5487.8887.881.161.16
Gardner WebbBSth1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
MichiganB101.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
KansasB121.521.5271.8871.880.660.66
AlabamaSEC1.491.4940.0040.00-0.30-0.30
VermontAE1.471.4768.9768.970.560.56
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.2837.9337.93-0.07-0.07
VMIBSth0.240.2455.5655.560.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
FurmanSC0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
ColoradoP120.160.1667.6567.650.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
WinthropBSth0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
The CitadelSC0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
MassachusettsA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
ToledoMAC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Michigan St.B100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Appalachian St.SC0.120.1219.2319.23-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
OregonP120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
SamfordSC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
AlbanyAE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
ColgatePat0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
DaytonA100.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
TCUB120.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0487.1087.100.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Washington St.P120.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00