Duke

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	1.0
Current RPI:	1
Expected SOS:	1
Current SOS:	1
Current Record:	27-5
Expected Record:	27-5
Current Conf Record:	14-5
Expected Conf Record:	14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-0
Current OOC Record:	13-0
Expected OOC Record:	13-0
Expected OOC RPI:	1
Expected OOC SOS:	1

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-5	1.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	74-55	W	100%
11-13	Kentucky (56.0)	SEC	N	68-75	W	100%
11-18	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	88-67	W	100%
11-22	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	N	71-89	W	100%
11-23	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	N	58-67	W	100%
11-24	Louisville (3.0)	BE	N	71-76	W	100%
11-28	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	H	73-68	W	100%
12-1	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	88-50	W	100%
12-8	Temple (42.0)	A10	N	90-67	W	100%
12-19	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	88-47	W	100%
12-20	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	76-54	W	100%
12-29	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	90-77	W	100%
1-2	Davidson (61.0)	SC	N	50-67	W	100%
1-5	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	H	80-62	W	100%
1-8	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	H	68-40	W	100%
1-12	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	A	84-76	L	0%
1-17	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	H	73-57	W	100%
1-23	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	90-63	L	0%
1-26	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	H	84-64	W	100%
1-30	Wake Forest (170.0)	ACC	A	70-75	W	100%
2-2	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	60-79	W	100%
2-7	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	H	98-85	W	100%
2-10	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	A	61-62	W	100%
2-13	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	H	73-68	W	100%
2-16	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	83-81	L	0%
2-21	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	56-88	W	100%
2-24	Boston College (113.0)	ACC	H	89-68	W	100%
2-28	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	73-68	L	0%
3-2	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	H	79-76	W	100%
3-5	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	H	85-57	W	100%
3-9	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	53-69	W	100%
3-15	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	N	74-83	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Duke	ACC	26.20	26.20	86.92	86.92	19.35	19.35
Maryland	ACC	5.44	5.44	64.52	64.52	1.58	1.58
Miami FL	ACC	3.91	3.91	83.87	83.87	2.65	2.65
North Carolina	ACC	3.91	3.91	74.19	74.19	1.89	1.89
North Carolina St.	ACC	3.87	3.87	71.88	71.88	1.69	1.69
Boston College	ACC	3.87	3.87	51.61	51.61	0.12	0.12
Wake Forest	ACC	3.86	3.86	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Virginia Tech	ACC	3.82	3.82	43.33	43.33	-0.51	-0.51
Florida St.	ACC	2.40	2.40	56.25	56.25	0.30	0.30
Virginia	ACC	2.35	2.35	64.52	64.52	0.68	0.68
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.33	2.33	53.33	53.33	0.16	0.16
Clemson	ACC	2.28	2.28	43.33	43.33	-0.30	-0.30
Kentucky	SEC	1.65	1.65	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Delaware	CAA	1.64	1.64	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.63	1.63	70.97	70.97	0.68	0.68
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Minnesota	B10	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Temple	A10	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
Davidson	SC	1.59	1.59	80.65	80.65	0.97	0.97
Elon	SC	1.59	1.59	65.52	65.52	0.49	0.49
Louisville	BE	1.59	1.59	87.88	87.88	1.20	1.20
Ohio St.	B10	1.59	1.59	81.25	81.25	0.99	0.99
Georgia St.	CAA	1.59	1.59	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	1.56	1.56	41.38	41.38	-0.27	-0.27
Santa Clara	WCC	1.56	1.56	65.52	65.52	0.48	0.48
NC Greensboro	SC	0.25	0.25	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Georgia Southern	SC	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
College of Charleston	SC	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Furman	SC	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Appalachian St.	SC	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.17	0.17	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Samford	SC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.13	0.13	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	21.43	21.43	-0.07	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	93.75	93.75	0.09	0.09
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.09	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01