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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:6.0
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:3
Current Record:27-8
Expected Record:27-8
Current Conf Record:15-7
Expected Conf Record:15-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-86.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marist (276.0)MAACH94-49W100%0.0
11-12Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH96-61W100%0.0
11-15Kansas (4.0)B12N77-75L0%0.0
11-19Penn St. (101.0)B10N78-68W100%0.0
11-20Rhode Island (31.0)A10N65-75W100%0.0
11-23William & Mary (110.0)CAAH88-67W100%0.0
11-26Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH93-58W100%0.0
11-29Michigan St. (51.0)B10H78-69W100%0.0
12-3Maine (322.0)AEH94-55W100%0.0
12-6Florida (10.0)SECN84-74W100%0.0
12-10UNLV (242.0)MWCN45-94W100%0.0
12-19Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH65-55W100%0.0
12-21Elon (161.0)CAAN61-72W100%0.0
12-31Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA89-75L0%0.0
1-4Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH110-57W100%0.0
1-7Boston College (219.0)ACCH93-82W100%0.0
1-10Florida St. (14.0)ACCA88-72L0%0.0
1-14Louisville (7.0)ACCA78-69L0%0.0
1-21Miami FL (41.0)ACCH70-58W100%0.0
1-23North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH82-84L0%0.0
1-28Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA83-85W100%0.0
1-30Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA74-84W100%0.0
2-4Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH72-64W100%0.0
2-9North Carolina (5.0)ACCH86-78W100%0.0
2-11Clemson (69.0)ACCH64-62W100%0.0
2-15Virginia (18.0)ACCA55-65W100%0.0
2-18Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH99-94W100%0.0
2-22Syracuse (84.0)ACCA78-75L0%0.0
2-25Miami FL (41.0)ACCA55-50L0%0.0
2-28Florida St. (14.0)ACCH75-70W100%0.0
3-4North Carolina (5.0)ACCA90-83L0%0.0
3-8Clemson (69.0)ACCN79-72W100%0.0
3-9Louisville (7.0)ACCN77-81W100%0.0
3-10North Carolina (5.0)ACCN83-93W100%0.0
3-11Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN69-75W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.1826.1878.7278.7215.0415.04
North CarolinaACC4.824.8283.3383.333.213.21
Florida St.ACC3.523.5277.4277.421.931.93
Notre DameACC3.503.5078.1278.121.971.97
Miami FLACC3.503.5066.6766.671.171.17
LouisvilleACC3.463.4676.6776.671.841.84
ClemsonACC3.453.4556.6756.670.460.46
Wake ForestACC3.433.4363.3363.330.920.92
North Carolina St.ACC2.162.1645.1645.16-0.21-0.21
Virginia TechACC2.142.1467.7467.740.760.76
PittsburghACC2.112.1150.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC2.112.1170.9770.970.880.88
Boston CollegeACC2.072.0729.0329.03-0.87-0.87
Georgia TechACC2.072.0753.3353.330.140.14
SyracuseACC2.052.0554.8454.840.200.20
William & MaryCAA1.571.5753.5753.570.110.11
Penn St.B101.541.5446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC1.521.5271.4371.430.650.65
FloridaSEC1.521.5277.4277.420.830.83
ElonCAA1.501.5055.1755.170.160.16
Rhode IslandA101.481.4875.0075.000.740.74
MaristMAAC1.471.4725.8125.81-0.71-0.71
Michigan St.B101.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
Appalachian St.SB1.451.4525.9325.93-0.70-0.70
KansasB121.451.4587.1087.101.081.08
MaineAE1.451.4520.0020.00-0.87-0.87
Tennessee St.OVC1.451.4555.5655.560.160.16
UNLVMWC1.451.4535.4835.48-0.42-0.42
DavidsonA100.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
IndianaB100.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
NebraskaB100.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
MinnesotaB100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
RadfordBSth0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
WisconsinB100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
IowaB100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
AuburnSEC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0430.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0410.0010.00-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
Texas TechB120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
DaytonA100.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.040.0480.0080.000.030.03
BryantNEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01