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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:4.4
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:42
Current Record:10-0
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-01.40.60%
30-11.63.96%
29-22.112.15%
28-32.722.19%
27-43.824.51%
26-55.419.81%
25-67.610.95%
24-710.23.92%
23-813.91.61%
22-918.80.24%
21-1022.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Presbyterian (341.5)BSthH113-44W100%0.0
11-15Fairfield (257.7)MAACH109-59W100%0.0
11-18Michigan St. (39.9)B10N81-71W100%0.0
11-21Temple (103.9)AmerN74-54W100%0.0
11-22Stanford (70.3)P12N70-59W100%0.0
11-26Furman (279.1)SCH93-54W100%0.0
11-30Army (144.3)PatH93-73W100%0.0
12-3Wisconsin (5.6)B10A70-80W100%0.0
12-15Elon (183.1)CAAH75-62W100%0.0
12-18Connecticut (72.3)AmerN56-66W100%0.0
12-29Toledo (92.8)MACH0-096%20.1
12-31Wofford (65.9)SCH0-095%19.5
1-3Boston College (153.3)ACCH0-098%24.4
1-7Wake Forest (157.9)ACCA0-090%15.3
1-11North Carolina St. (48.9)ACCA0-073%7.3
1-13Miami FL (42.5)ACCH0-091%15.6
1-17Louisville (7.9)ACCA0-040%-3.1
1-19Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCH0-097%21.5
1-25St. John's (41.5)BEA0-073%7.3
1-28Notre Dame (48.2)ACCA0-060%2.8
1-31Virginia (6.7)ACCA0-040%-2.8
2-4Georgia Tech (80.2)ACCH0-096%20.7
2-7Notre Dame (48.2)ACCH0-083%11.2
2-9Florida St. (185.7)ACCA0-092%16.6
2-14Syracuse (70.4)ACCA0-075%7.9
2-18North Carolina (9.4)ACCH0-072%6.8
2-21Clemson (165.7)ACCH0-098%24.4
2-25Virginia Tech (210.7)ACCA0-095%18.7
2-28Syracuse (70.4)ACCH0-092%16.3
3-4Wake Forest (157.9)ACCH0-098%23.7
3-7North Carolina (9.4)ACCA0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC27.6526.04100.0088.6727.6520.14
Notre DameACC0.213.7591.6780.460.172.29
SyracuseACC0.003.7560.0060.990.000.82
Wake ForestACC0.003.7345.4539.79-0.00-0.76
North CarolinaACC0.003.7272.7377.140.002.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2475.0062.640.000.57
Georgia TechACC0.002.2480.0054.970.000.22
Virginia TechACC0.002.2260.0039.120.00-0.48
Boston CollegeACC0.002.2166.6744.010.00-0.27
LouisvilleACC0.002.19100.0085.750.001.57
PittsburghACC0.002.1970.0053.400.000.15
ClemsonACC0.002.1960.0045.340.00-0.20
VirginiaACC0.002.19100.0087.000.001.62
Florida St.ACC0.002.1654.5543.130.00-0.30
Miami FLACC0.002.1681.8267.900.000.77
WoffordSC0.841.7877.7878.080.471.00
ConnecticutAmer5.001.6957.1460.080.710.34
Michigan St.B105.001.6972.7369.542.270.66
FurmanSC5.001.6725.0033.03-2.50-0.57
StanfordP125.001.6775.0060.332.500.34
PresbyterianBSth5.001.670.008.93-5.00-1.37
TempleAmer5.001.6770.0058.312.000.28
St. John'sBE0.001.6688.8966.500.000.55
FairfieldMAAC5.001.6444.4438.94-0.56-0.36
WisconsinB105.001.64100.0091.805.001.37
ArmyPat5.001.6187.5071.333.750.69
ElonCAA5.001.6150.0052.900.000.09
ToledoMAC0.001.6163.6463.430.000.43
UNC GreensboroSC0.590.2320.0035.33-0.35-0.07
SamfordSC0.590.2233.3330.28-0.20-0.09
MinnesotaB100.000.2180.0067.830.000.08
The CitadelSC0.000.1914.2932.16-0.00-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1875.0057.390.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1888.8955.860.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1863.6465.220.000.06
IowaB100.000.1866.6759.420.000.03
VMISC0.280.1733.3338.93-0.09-0.04
BucknellPat0.250.1640.0036.66-0.05-0.04
NorthwesternB100.280.1663.6442.810.08-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1633.3337.91-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1640.0041.32-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.230.1440.0049.39-0.05-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1442.8649.51-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.590.1445.4545.10-0.05-0.01
DelawareCAA0.780.140.008.56-0.78-0.11
MaristMAAC0.280.149.0916.15-0.23-0.09
Loyola MDPat0.000.1433.3328.13-0.00-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.000.1457.1453.770.000.01
NavyPat0.210.1420.0022.16-0.12-0.08
William & MaryCAA0.000.1457.1457.100.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.540.1372.7367.520.250.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1360.0069.200.000.05
West VirginiaB120.310.1390.9170.080.260.05
MarquetteBE0.440.1360.0048.980.09-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1390.9169.030.000.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1370.0064.680.000.04
VillanovaBE0.230.13100.0082.970.230.09
IndianaB100.000.1381.8263.330.000.03
MichiganB100.000.1350.0040.450.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1381.8282.250.000.08
PurdueB100.000.1366.6759.370.000.02
LibertyBSth0.280.1225.0035.39-0.14-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1271.4363.770.000.03
MercerSC0.000.1244.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1220.0040.93-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.540.1163.6463.240.150.03
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0042.59-0.00-0.02
USCP120.280.1160.0036.410.06-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.250.1170.0060.920.100.02
BinghamtonAE0.280.110.0011.24-0.28-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.280.1154.5564.070.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1112.5029.51-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.210.1150.0053.250.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.1172.7367.960.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1154.5532.590.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.1172.7375.710.000.05
TulsaAmer0.000.1160.0056.620.000.01
UCLAP120.000.1166.6754.480.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.250.1130.0038.01-0.10-0.03
MarylandB100.000.1090.9168.230.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1054.5552.490.000.01
OaklandHorz0.210.1027.2732.45-0.09-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1030.0039.59-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.1055.5635.900.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1036.3650.71-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.1075.0065.140.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1033.3341.20-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6744.720.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1042.8633.27-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1091.6755.310.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.0937.5050.31-0.070.00
High PointBSth0.000.0966.6761.790.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0925.0044.27-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0955.5658.650.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.280.0837.5034.64-0.07-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0863.6455.660.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0814.2944.44-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.590.0828.5745.89-0.25-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0822.2235.90-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0870.0076.180.000.04
TowsonCAA0.230.0860.0047.170.05-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0857.1455.330.000.01
South DakotaSum0.530.0827.2738.30-0.24-0.02
DaytonA100.310.0880.0069.770.190.03
DePaulBE0.280.0860.0034.160.06-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0833.3328.79-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.280.0830.0028.65-0.11-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.230.0870.0059.220.090.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0860.0062.070.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0880.0072.200.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.080.0014.00-0.31-0.06
DavidsonA100.000.0888.8977.320.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0837.5039.65-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0860.0056.150.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0011.59-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0836.3646.72-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.0875.0066.220.100.03
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0096.290.000.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.080.0017.97-0.23-0.05
RichmondA100.000.0860.0057.700.000.01
UABCUSA0.230.0830.0036.69-0.09-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.520.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0025.85-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0630.0041.69-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6767.650.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0644.4454.06-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.0677.7870.160.150.02
MaineAE0.000.0611.1120.80-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0555.5673.740.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.0516.6735.27-0.19-0.02
North FloridaASun0.280.0550.0057.820.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0082.630.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0554.5548.490.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0555.5662.150.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0520.0027.29-0.15-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0052.140.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7172.910.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0550.0058.370.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.0544.4450.60-0.030.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3648.18-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0590.0067.380.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3349.54-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.310.0590.9179.980.260.03
WashingtonP120.000.05100.0075.440.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.13-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0572.7367.590.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0028.43-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.0518.1837.71-0.13-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0562.5041.790.00-0.01
La SalleA100.230.0554.5552.730.020.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.230.0533.3345.04-0.08-0.01
OregonP120.000.0570.0057.440.000.01
UNLVMWC0.510.0566.6749.560.17-0.00
VCUA100.000.0572.7375.740.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0525.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.230.0577.7872.890.130.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0577.7870.890.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0585.7170.530.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0555.5648.710.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.009.06-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.230.0575.0077.010.110.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0545.4549.62-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0550.0050.620.000.00
KansasB120.210.0590.0070.680.170.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0575.0058.160.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0550.0071.260.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.0533.3343.14-0.08-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0533.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.33-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0555.5652.610.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.310.0316.6737.21-0.21-0.01
TCUB120.280.03100.0067.700.280.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0366.6764.770.100.01
UC DavisBW0.280.0387.5068.000.210.01
Air ForceMWC0.280.0350.0055.890.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0330.0043.15-0.11-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.280.0342.8649.02-0.04-0.00
MissouriSEC0.280.0340.0032.26-0.06-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0340.0055.01-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.250.0363.6464.880.070.01
BYUWCC0.280.0370.0068.340.110.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6767.930.000.01
DenverSum0.280.0345.4555.13-0.030.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.94-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6765.500.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.9190.540.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.190.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.40-0.14-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0063.910.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.48-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.410.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7362.220.000.01
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.560.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7856.220.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0362.5058.080.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0015.00-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0050.490.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0363.6467.210.000.01
UtahP120.000.0380.0080.520.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.00
YaleIvy0.310.0366.6761.820.100.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8648.87-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0318.1822.49-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0340.0048.02-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.06-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.770.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.41-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.470.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.74-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0316.6743.20-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.05-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.0375.0058.760.100.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.37-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.0330.0031.48-0.09-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.9183.090.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.230.0370.0062.710.090.01
PennIvy0.230.0337.5032.63-0.06-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.0360.0043.160.05-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.0344.4436.80-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0031.89-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.17-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.0320.0052.97-0.120.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00