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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:5.0
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:2
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC Record:13-2
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-65.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Belmont (58.0)ASunH77-76W100%0.0
11-12Presbyterian (245.0)BSthH96-55W100%0.0
11-15Michigan St. (4.0)B10N74-69W100%0.0
11-18Davidson (66.0)SCH82-69W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee (86.0)SECN77-67W100%0.0
11-22Michigan (14.0)B10N82-75W100%0.0
11-23Kansas (6.0)B12N68-61W100%0.0
11-29Ohio St. (7.0)B10A85-63L0%0.0
12-7Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH87-64W100%0.0
12-10Washington (71.0)P12N86-80W100%0.0
12-19NC Greensboro (231.0)SCH90-63W100%0.0
12-30Western Michigan (205.0)MACH110-70W100%0.0
1-1Pennsylvania (98.0)IvyH85-55W100%0.0
1-4Temple (19.0)A10A78-73L0%0.0
1-7Georgia Tech (197.0)ACCA74-81W100%0.0
1-12Virginia (53.0)ACCH61-58W100%0.0
1-15Clemson (151.0)ACCA66-73W100%0.0
1-19Wake Forest (183.0)ACCH91-73W100%0.0
1-21Florida St. (11.0)ACCH73-76L0%0.0
1-25Maryland (105.0)ACCA61-74W100%0.0
1-28St. John's (159.0)BEH83-76W100%0.0
2-2Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCA60-75W100%0.0
2-5Miami FL (60.0)ACCH74-78L0%0.0
2-8North Carolina (3.0)ACCA84-85W100%0.0
2-11Maryland (105.0)ACCH73-55W100%0.0
2-16North Carolina St. (49.0)ACCH78-73W100%0.0
2-19Boston College (244.0)ACCA50-75W100%0.0
2-23Florida St. (11.0)ACCA66-74W100%0.0
2-25Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCH70-65W100%0.0
2-28Wake Forest (183.0)ACCA71-79W100%0.0
3-3North Carolina (3.0)ACCH70-88L0%0.0
3-9Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCN60-56W100%0.0
3-10Florida St. (11.0)ACCN59-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.2026.2079.6279.6215.5215.52
Florida St.ACC5.165.1673.3373.332.412.41
Virginia TechACC5.075.0753.3353.330.340.34
North CarolinaACC3.693.6987.5087.502.772.77
MarylandACC3.643.6456.6756.670.490.49
Wake ForestACC3.553.5544.8344.83-0.37-0.37
Miami FLACC2.242.2460.0060.000.450.45
ClemsonACC2.222.2253.3353.330.150.15
VirginiaACC2.212.2173.3373.331.031.03
North Carolina St.ACC2.182.1866.6766.670.730.73
Boston CollegeACC2.122.1230.0030.00-0.85-0.85
Georgia TechACC2.112.1136.6736.67-0.56-0.56
Michigan St.B101.741.7481.2581.251.091.09
Ohio St.B101.681.6878.7978.790.970.97
NC GreensboroSC1.661.6640.0040.00-0.33-0.33
MichiganB101.651.6574.1974.190.800.80
DavidsonSC1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
TempleA101.611.6176.6776.670.860.86
PennsylvaniaIvy1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
KansasB121.561.5684.3884.381.071.07
PresbyterianBSth1.541.5448.1548.15-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
Western MichiganMAC1.541.5440.6240.62-0.29-0.29
BelmontASun1.521.5281.2581.250.950.95
Colorado St.MWC1.521.5265.5265.520.470.47
St. John'sBE1.521.5241.9441.94-0.24-0.24
WashingtonP121.521.5270.0070.000.610.61
PurdueB100.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
MassachusettsA100.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
MinnesotaB100.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1843.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
FurmanSC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
The CitadelSC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.10-0.10
CampbellBSth0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
HarvardIvy0.140.1486.2186.210.100.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1494.1294.120.120.12
FloridaSEC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
WinthropBSth0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
TowsonCAA0.120.123.123.12-0.11-0.11
NC AshevilleBSth0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutBE0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
SyracuseBE0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
Kansas St.B120.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MonmouthNEC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1065.3865.380.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
FordhamA100.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
CornellIvy0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Texas TechB120.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MB120.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
CincinnatiBE0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
CharlotteA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
OregonP120.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
St. LouisA100.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Seattleind0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MissouriB120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSB0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
NevadaWAC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
UtahP120.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
TroySB0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01