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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:3.1
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:12
Current Record:17-2
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-21.15.08%
28-31.417.46%
27-42.027.09%
26-53.126.08%
25-64.815.60%
24-77.26.27%
23-810.11.89%
22-913.70.46%
21-1020.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Elon (143.4)CAAH97-68W100%0.0
11-11Utah Valley (84.6)WACH99-69W100%0.0
11-14Michigan St. (21.5)B10N81-88W100%0.0
11-17Southern (302.8)SWACH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Furman (87.9)SCH92-63W100%0.0
11-23Portland St. (122.0)BSkyN81-99W100%0.0
11-24Texas (46.2)B12N78-85W100%0.0
11-26Florida (25.5)SECN84-87W100%0.0
11-29Indiana (115.7)B10A81-91W100%0.0
12-2South Dakota (99.3)SumH96-80W100%0.0
12-5St. Francis PA (156.6)NECH124-67W100%0.0
12-9Boston College (99.6)ACCA89-84L0%0.0
12-20Evansville (159.2)MVCH104-40W100%0.0
12-30Florida St. (39.9)ACCH100-93W100%0.0
1-6North Carolina St. (104.0)ACCA96-85L0%0.0
1-10Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCA52-87W100%0.0
1-13Wake Forest (133.8)ACCH89-71W100%0.0
1-15Miami FL (25.8)ACCA75-83W100%0.0
1-20Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCH81-54W100%0.0
1-23Wake Forest (133.8)ACCA0-086%12.1
1-27Virginia (4.0)ACCH0-069%5.5
1-29Notre Dame (57.8)ACCH0-084%10.8
2-3St. John's (95.3)BEA0-084%11.1
2-8North Carolina (5.5)ACCA0-051%0.3
2-11Georgia Tech (145.8)ACCA0-089%13.8
2-14Virginia Tech (82.6)ACCH0-089%13.9
2-18Clemson (14.0)ACCA0-068%5.2
2-21Louisville (23.4)ACCH0-084%11.0
2-24Syracuse (44.3)ACCH0-090%14.3
2-26Virginia Tech (82.6)ACCA0-075%7.5
3-3North Carolina (5.5)ACCH0-073%6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.4626.0592.2186.5622.3419.05
North CarolinaACC0.273.7580.0077.600.162.07
Virginia TechACC0.273.7368.4260.490.100.78
PittsburghACC5.343.7344.4433.00-0.59-1.27
Wake ForestACC2.763.7244.4442.86-0.31-0.53
LouisvilleACC0.412.2878.9571.570.240.98
Notre DameACC0.202.2463.1662.550.050.56
North Carolina St.ACC2.772.2263.1654.880.730.22
SyracuseACC0.272.2268.4262.940.100.57
Miami FLACC2.902.2282.3572.911.881.02
ClemsonACC0.342.2284.2174.650.231.09
Georgia TechACC0.202.2052.6344.200.01-0.25
Florida St.ACC2.842.1977.7872.041.580.97
VirginiaACC0.202.1994.7488.040.181.67
Boston CollegeACC2.772.1763.1653.160.730.14
Michigan St.B102.701.7589.4785.972.131.26
IndianaB102.701.7261.1152.460.600.08
FloridaSEC2.701.6777.7873.951.500.80
ElonCAA2.701.6455.5652.910.300.10
FurmanSC2.701.6470.5970.991.110.69
St. Francis PANEC2.631.6456.2561.520.330.38
EvansvilleMVC2.631.6155.5649.210.29-0.03
Portland St.BSky2.631.6162.5065.550.660.50
South DakotaSum2.631.6177.7875.161.460.81
SouthernSWAC2.631.6129.4142.44-1.08-0.24
St. John'sBE0.001.6147.3743.060.00-0.22
TexasB122.631.6166.6759.550.880.31
Utah ValleyWAC2.631.6170.5968.561.080.60
TennesseeSEC0.210.2172.2268.930.090.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.200.1968.7567.600.080.07
IllinoisB100.140.1947.3744.27-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1673.6867.970.070.06
IowaB100.140.1647.6244.02-0.01-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.1680.9576.520.040.08
DrakeMVC0.210.1455.0048.980.02-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.210.1442.1144.96-0.03-0.01
ButlerBE0.220.1466.6763.070.070.04
The CitadelSC0.140.1318.7518.36-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1338.8935.370.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.1344.4450.08-0.010.00
WoffordSC0.070.1368.7563.690.030.04
MichiganB100.200.1376.1970.740.110.05
Oklahoma St.B120.270.1368.4254.090.100.01
Penn St.B100.270.1361.9055.760.060.02
West VirginiaB120.200.1384.2178.170.140.07
UMKCWAC0.210.1221.0524.75-0.12-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1152.3848.530.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1170.0071.230.000.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1130.0033.47-0.06-0.04
BryantNEC0.140.119.5217.12-0.12-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1136.8444.11-0.04-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.210.1144.4446.02-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.210.1170.5973.150.090.05
LehighPat0.210.1138.8944.75-0.05-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1121.0544.26-0.04-0.01
TowsonCAA0.200.1163.1665.970.050.03
StanfordP120.150.1155.0050.370.010.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.220.1110.0019.63-0.17-0.06
TulaneAmer0.140.1163.1657.890.040.02
DePaulBE0.070.1142.1134.31-0.01-0.03
MinnesotaB100.140.1163.6457.630.040.02
Seton HallBE0.070.1175.0067.890.030.04
BaylorB120.140.1161.1156.090.030.01
NebraskaB100.130.1166.6759.820.040.02
RutgersB100.200.1155.0046.690.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.1150.0046.300.00-0.01
MarylandB100.070.1070.0065.250.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.1052.6345.860.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.0938.8946.05-0.03-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0943.7540.93-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.150.0956.2557.400.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.090.003.07-0.07-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.140.0952.6351.690.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0983.3384.240.100.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0933.3335.21-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0925.0028.01-0.03-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0957.1460.410.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0945.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0870.0068.300.060.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.0863.1663.220.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0822.2227.33-0.08-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0847.3743.020.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0857.8959.490.010.02
SamfordSC0.070.0827.7832.66-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.140.0873.6865.600.070.03
James MadisonCAA0.140.0825.0028.24-0.07-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0878.9574.190.080.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0855.0052.470.010.00
VMISC0.140.0825.0024.15-0.07-0.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0827.7827.28-0.03-0.04
New HampshireAE0.210.0833.3340.08-0.07-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0857.8958.850.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.0827.7831.71-0.09-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0868.4254.070.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0870.0060.470.030.02
RichmondA100.140.0831.5834.36-0.05-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0858.8261.450.000.02
NavyPat0.200.0860.0055.160.040.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0855.5656.740.000.01
North FloridaASun0.210.0831.5835.15-0.08-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0855.0050.330.010.00
PurdueB100.000.0890.4888.370.000.06
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0861.1151.910.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0836.8435.57-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0868.4258.980.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0868.4264.200.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6755.940.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.085.8819.35-0.06-0.05
KansasB120.070.0884.2179.750.050.05
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0827.7827.10-0.03-0.04
Texas TechB120.140.0878.9571.810.080.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.0656.2556.830.020.01
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0623.5332.570.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0640.0042.52-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.52-0.03-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0657.8954.500.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.980.000.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0664.7164.570.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0611.1115.29-0.05-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.150.0617.6523.86-0.10-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.0658.8249.760.02-0.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0664.7166.850.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0616.6724.45-0.05-0.03
HawaiiBW0.150.0668.7563.990.050.02
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0641.1838.47-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0621.0523.51-0.08-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.140.0636.8445.21-0.04-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.050.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0610.5316.750.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0616.6724.26-0.05-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0630.0036.50-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.140.0665.0057.880.040.01
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0661.9063.140.030.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.150.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0638.8943.43-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0644.4454.86-0.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.67-0.07-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0643.7554.11-0.020.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0621.0539.48-0.04-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0647.3748.770.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7159.990.020.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0537.5033.78-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.0527.7831.11-0.06-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.140.0550.0053.260.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.140.0535.0026.12-0.04-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0557.8953.190.020.00
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.860.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0552.6358.590.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.0552.6355.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.070.0561.1160.440.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.64-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0527.7838.14-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0575.0070.700.000.02
George WashingtonA100.140.0545.0043.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0566.6765.370.020.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0578.9572.990.040.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0550.0054.190.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0568.4260.550.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0535.0031.83-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0585.7180.080.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.0525.0031.45-0.07-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0521.4326.35-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.97-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.0538.8940.78-0.03-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0064.110.000.01
La SalleA100.140.0540.0042.69-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0561.1153.170.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.200.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0527.7834.50-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.700.010.01
BucknellPat0.000.0561.9068.020.000.02
ColgatePat0.070.0550.0051.030.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.050.009.09-0.13-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0521.0525.970.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.130.0570.0058.090.050.01
GonzagaWCC0.140.0580.9583.260.090.03
High PointBSth0.130.0543.7549.23-0.02-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0561.1147.220.02-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0573.6862.720.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0515.7920.910.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.0528.5731.26-0.06-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0523.5328.690.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.910.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0547.3746.920.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0570.5969.630.050.02
WashingtonP120.000.0570.0061.440.000.01
AmericanPat0.080.0326.3228.11-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.050.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0316.6716.16-0.05-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0357.1453.050.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0390.4888.960.060.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.13-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.81-0.05-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0358.8262.440.010.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.080.0365.0063.850.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0333.3332.94-0.03-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.650.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0378.9576.130.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.700.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.05-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.370.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.710.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0327.7841.030.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0337.5045.240.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.410.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0357.8950.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.220.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.430.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0352.9455.030.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.380.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0371.4370.240.000.01
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.000.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.460.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.050.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.25-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.900.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3333.230.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0345.0041.300.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.070.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.77-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.340.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.83-0.05-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.920.030.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.650.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.037.1414.82-0.06-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5729.940.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.730.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.960.030.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.700.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0368.4269.250.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0341.1847.560.00-0.00