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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:6.0
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:29-4
Expected Record:29-4
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:4
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-46.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH113-44W100%0.0
11-15Fairfield (299.0)MAACH109-59W100%0.0
11-18Michigan St. (23.0)B10N81-71W100%0.0
11-21Temple (34.0)AmerN74-54W100%0.0
11-22Stanford (59.0)P12N70-59W100%0.0
11-26Furman (293.0)SCH93-54W100%0.0
11-30Army (235.0)PatH93-73W100%0.0
12-3Wisconsin (4.0)B10A70-80W100%0.0
12-15Elon (259.0)CAAH75-62W100%0.0
12-18Connecticut (77.0)AmerN56-66W100%0.0
12-29Toledo (79.0)MACH86-69W100%0.0
12-31Wofford (47.0)SCH84-55W100%0.0
1-3Boston College (165.0)ACCH85-62W100%0.0
1-7Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA65-73W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA87-75L0%0.0
1-13Miami FL (65.0)ACCH74-90L0%0.0
1-17Louisville (21.0)ACCA52-63W100%0.0
1-19Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH79-65W100%0.0
1-25St. John's (44.0)BEA68-77W100%0.0
1-28Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA77-73L0%0.0
1-31Virginia (7.0)ACCA63-69W100%0.0
2-4Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH72-66W100%0.0
2-7Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH90-60W100%0.0
2-9Florida St. (110.0)ACCA70-73W100%0.0
2-14Syracuse (69.0)ACCA72-80W100%0.0
2-18North Carolina (11.0)ACCH92-90W100%0.0
2-21Clemson (106.0)ACCH78-56W100%0.0
2-25Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA86-91W100%0.0
2-28Syracuse (69.0)ACCH73-54W100%0.0
3-4Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH94-51W100%0.0
3-7North Carolina (11.0)ACCA77-84W100%0.0
3-12North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCN77-53W100%0.0
3-13Notre Dame (16.0)ACCN64-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.0926.0988.0888.0819.8719.87
Notre DameACC5.105.1087.1087.103.793.79
North CarolinaACC3.683.6872.7372.731.671.67
North Carolina St.ACC3.643.6461.2961.290.820.82
Wake ForestACC3.563.5643.3343.33-0.48-0.48
SyracuseACC3.543.5462.0762.070.850.85
Boston CollegeACC2.192.1941.9441.94-0.35-0.35
Virginia TechACC2.172.1734.3834.38-0.68-0.68
VirginiaACC2.162.1693.5593.551.881.88
Georgia TechACC2.162.1640.0040.00-0.43-0.43
Miami FLACC2.142.1462.5062.500.530.53
ClemsonACC2.142.1453.3353.330.140.14
PittsburghACC2.122.1258.0658.060.340.34
LouisvilleACC2.112.1177.4277.421.161.16
Florida St.ACC2.102.1053.1253.120.130.13
WoffordSC1.711.7183.8783.871.161.16
Michigan St.B101.631.6369.7069.700.640.64
FurmanSC1.591.5930.0030.00-0.63-0.63
ConnecticutAmer1.581.5860.6160.610.340.34
St. John'sBE1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
PresbyterianBSth1.561.5622.2222.22-0.87-0.87
StanfordP121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
TempleAmer1.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
WisconsinB101.561.5693.9493.941.371.37
FairfieldMAAC1.541.5423.3323.33-0.82-0.82
ArmyPat1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA1.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
ToledoMAC1.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
UNC GreensboroSC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
ProvidenceBE0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
SamfordSC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.190.1929.6329.63-0.08-0.08
MinnesotaB100.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
PurdueB100.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
NavyPat0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
FloridaSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
BucknellPat0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1559.2659.260.030.03
VMISC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
MichiganB100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.140.1481.2581.250.080.08
Ohio St.B100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
DelawareCAA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
MercerSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
MarquetteBE0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
IndianaB100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
RutgersB100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
UCLAP120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
HartfordAE0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0475.8675.860.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01