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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:8.6
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:40
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.05%
29-21.10.63%
28-31.62.59%
27-42.48.09%
26-53.916.36%
25-66.020.87%
24-78.621.25%
23-811.915.58%
22-915.79.02%
21-1020.43.76%
20-1127.41.30%
19-1233.60.38%
18-1350.20.08%
17-1463.00.01%
16-1571.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marist (236.1)MAACH94-49W100%0.0
11-12Grand Canyon (187.1)WACH96-61W100%0.0
11-15Kansas (7.5)B12N77-75L0%0.0
11-19Penn St. (136.8)B10N78-68W100%0.0
11-20Rhode Island (33.6)A10N65-75W100%0.0
11-23William & Mary (121.0)CAAH88-67W100%0.0
11-26Appalachian St. (238.2)SBH93-58W100%0.0
11-29Michigan St. (41.5)B10H78-69W100%0.0
12-3Maine (310.8)AEH0-0100%37.2
12-6Florida (9.6)SECN0-064%4.2
12-10UNLV (163.6)MWCN0-095%20.0
12-19Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCH0-097%21.9
12-21Elon (136.0)CAAN0-096%21.7
12-31Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-073%7.3
1-4Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH0-096%21.6
1-7Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-099%28.4
1-10Florida St. (50.8)ACCA0-070%6.2
1-14Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-043%-2.1
1-21Miami FL (45.8)ACCH0-079%9.8
1-23North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCH0-094%18.4
1-28Wake Forest (59.3)ACCA0-078%9.1
1-30Notre Dame (26.0)ACCA0-055%1.4
2-4Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCH0-090%15.2
2-9North Carolina (5.9)ACCH0-058%2.3
2-11Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-089%14.7
2-15Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-034%-5.0
2-18Wake Forest (59.3)ACCH0-090%15.3
2-22Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-057%2.0
2-25Miami FL (45.8)ACCA0-062%3.6
2-28Florida St. (50.8)ACCH0-085%12.4
3-4North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-037%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC28.8926.0483.3378.7519.2614.97
Florida St.ACC0.003.7885.7165.150.001.15
Miami FLACC0.003.7871.4368.330.001.39
North CarolinaACC0.003.7385.7181.900.002.38
Wake ForestACC0.003.7371.4354.960.000.37
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.3171.4352.050.000.09
LouisvilleACC0.622.2285.7176.590.451.18
Virginia TechACC0.002.2285.7164.150.000.63
ClemsonACC0.002.2266.6754.930.000.22
PittsburghACC0.002.2285.7157.060.000.31
Boston CollegeACC0.002.1950.0028.130.00-0.96
Notre DameACC0.002.19100.0076.000.001.14
Georgia TechACC0.392.1966.6740.970.13-0.40
VirginiaACC0.002.19100.0083.120.001.45
SyracuseACC0.002.1766.6771.040.000.91
William & MaryCAA6.251.7250.0057.570.000.26
Penn St.B106.771.7271.4345.432.90-0.16
FloridaSEC0.001.7287.5076.610.000.91
Grand CanyonWAC7.091.6960.0058.271.420.28
ElonCAA0.001.6783.3359.970.000.33
Rhode IslandA106.701.6783.3372.764.460.76
MaristMAAC7.221.6750.0036.870.00-0.44
MaineAE0.001.6416.6726.49-0.00-0.77
Appalachian St.SB6.251.6425.0037.38-3.12-0.41
KansasB126.251.6483.3375.374.170.83
Michigan St.B106.251.6457.1463.650.890.45
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.6483.3372.930.000.75
UNLVMWC0.001.6471.4351.090.000.04
DavidsonA100.620.1983.3368.880.420.07
IndianaB100.450.1883.3375.060.300.09
KentuckySEC0.390.18100.0086.250.390.13
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1762.5056.500.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1757.1448.240.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.390.1657.1444.160.06-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1650.0043.610.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.1657.1442.660.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.1685.7165.670.000.05
PurdueB100.000.1671.4374.450.000.08
James MadisonCAA0.000.150.0028.15-0.00-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1483.3377.170.000.08
DelawareCAA0.000.1440.0040.65-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1450.0054.490.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.620.1466.6751.090.210.00
TennesseeSEC0.620.1325.0034.47-0.31-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1333.3336.31-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.910.1350.0060.380.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.450.1366.6754.380.150.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1371.4366.220.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1383.3344.770.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1371.4371.570.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.1375.0073.840.000.06
DrexelCAA0.000.1242.8636.82-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1257.1440.550.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1128.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1114.2928.66-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.450.1140.0061.37-0.090.03
HartfordAE0.620.1112.5022.55-0.47-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.1171.4356.280.000.01
RichmondA100.000.1157.1448.600.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.77-0.00-0.05
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1160.0052.760.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.890.110.0023.47-0.89-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.000.1142.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.970.000.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1114.2931.71-0.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.1071.4366.530.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1085.7172.660.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.1083.3351.920.000.00
IowaB100.000.1042.8644.33-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.10100.0080.780.000.06
BaylorB120.390.10100.0074.460.390.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1083.3362.080.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1060.0070.140.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.450.100.0039.35-0.45-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1033.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1083.3356.560.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0960.0057.900.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0920.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0816.6718.96-0.00-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0833.3341.52-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
UMKCWAC0.000.0871.4356.050.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0820.0042.63-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8642.47-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0880.0055.340.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0866.6758.420.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.080.0033.58-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.08100.0074.800.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0875.0074.990.000.04
BrownIvy0.890.0850.0042.420.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0875.0059.100.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0816.6733.82-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.450.0825.0040.81-0.22-0.01
VermontAE0.450.0862.5071.630.110.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0850.0053.530.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0825.0038.72-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.390.0837.5034.65-0.10-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0871.4358.670.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0816.6734.31-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0814.2926.81-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.550.000.05
ColgatePat0.390.0820.0041.31-0.23-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0885.7155.890.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0885.7156.490.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0047.990.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.450.0828.5750.51-0.190.00
St. John'sBE0.390.0828.5733.92-0.17-0.03
TCUB120.000.08100.0059.480.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.520.0657.1440.590.07-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.520.050.0018.22-0.52-0.03
ArizonaP120.390.0585.7170.990.280.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.390.050.0024.77-0.39-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.050.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.450.0550.0064.840.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0542.8640.94-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0575.0067.660.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0566.6772.440.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0520.0034.39-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0550.0051.260.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0560.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3358.080.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0540.0057.97-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0525.0043.26-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0540.0050.91-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.840.0585.7180.960.600.03
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0550.0053.050.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0571.4346.010.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.32-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6770.740.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0516.6729.36-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0566.6766.100.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0533.3364.14-0.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0550.0042.710.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0566.6769.810.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0583.3361.490.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0055.850.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.390.0550.0071.330.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.940.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0575.0070.470.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0557.1455.810.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0540.0037.44-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0533.3323.33-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0585.7163.780.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0550.0053.560.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.390.0571.4386.030.170.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0560.0070.500.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0560.0048.590.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.620.0366.6756.360.210.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.620.0340.0050.71-0.120.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.620.0333.3327.13-0.21-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0385.7174.430.320.01
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UABCUSA0.450.0357.1461.940.060.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01