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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:20.4
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:24
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-65.70.92%
24-79.16.92%
23-813.119.04%
22-917.828.76%
21-1023.026.14%
20-1130.413.63%
19-1240.63.98%
18-1352.50.58%
17-1466.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Siena (89.9)MAACH92-74W100%0.0
11-14Bryant (313.1)NECH113-75W100%0.0
11-17Kentucky (26.2)SECN63-74L0%0.0
11-20VCU (29.7)A10N71-79W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (69.4)BEN86-84W100%0.0
11-25Yale (63.9)IvyH80-61W100%0.0
11-29Utah St. (154.3)MWCH85-52W100%0.0
12-2Indiana (31.2)B10H94-74W100%0.0
12-5Buffalo (93.2)MACH82-59W100%0.0
12-15Georgia Southern (256.4)SBH99-65W100%0.0
12-19Utah (27.5)P12N75-77L0%0.0
12-28Elon (125.9)CAAH105-66W100%0.0
12-30Long Beach St. (102.0)BWH103-81W100%0.0
1-2Boston College (230.7)ACCA64-81W100%0.0
1-6Wake Forest (120.9)ACCA75-91W100%0.0
1-9Virginia Tech (138.4)ACCH82-58W100%0.0
1-13Clemson (90.8)ACCA68-63L0%0.0
1-16Notre Dame (47.9)ACCH91-95L0%0.0
1-18Syracuse (50.0)ACCH62-64L0%0.0
1-23North Carolina St. (113.3)ACCA78-88W100%0.0
1-25Miami FL (14.5)ACCA80-69L0%0.0
2-2Georgia Tech (82.5)ACCA71-80W100%0.0
2-6North Carolina St. (113.3)ACCH0-088%12.7
2-8Louisville (15.9)ACCH0-056%1.6
2-13Virginia (8.2)ACCH0-064%3.9
2-17North Carolina (9.3)ACCA0-036%-3.9
2-20Louisville (15.9)ACCA0-032%-5.0
2-25Florida St. (51.1)ACCH0-083%10.4
2-28Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA0-054%1.0
3-1Wake Forest (120.9)ACCH0-095%17.5
3-5North Carolina (9.3)ACCH0-060%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Duke.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
DukeACC26.1626.0469.3966.0510.148.36
North Carolina St.ACC2.483.7854.5552.320.230.18
Wake ForestACC2.633.7847.6244.95-0.13-0.38
LouisvilleACC0.313.7681.8278.970.192.18
North CarolinaACC0.353.7586.3682.650.262.45
SyracuseACC2.742.2565.2261.470.830.52
Georgia TechACC2.522.2257.1454.530.360.20
VirginiaACC0.462.2281.8277.390.291.22
Notre DameACC2.682.2266.6762.460.890.55
Florida St.ACC0.362.2268.1864.830.130.66
Virginia TechACC2.522.2054.5548.830.23-0.05
Miami FLACC2.632.2080.0074.771.581.09
Boston CollegeACC2.482.1933.3327.52-0.83-0.99
PittsburghACC0.352.1980.0071.170.210.93
ClemsonACC2.432.1761.9061.030.580.48
BryantNEC2.441.6927.2728.54-1.11-0.73
IndianaB102.381.6986.3679.941.731.01
VCUA102.381.6980.9579.331.470.99
GeorgetownBE2.371.6759.0955.220.430.17
KentuckySEC2.271.6671.4368.680.970.62
Long Beach St.BW2.271.6445.0053.16-0.230.10
SienaMAAC2.321.6468.1868.930.840.62
UtahP122.331.6471.4367.471.000.57
YaleIvy2.321.6475.0075.401.160.83
BuffaloMAC2.321.6460.0059.510.460.31
ElonCAA2.321.6457.1454.920.330.16
Georgia SouthernSB2.271.6138.8938.69-0.51-0.36
Utah St.MWC2.271.6150.0051.270.000.04
UCLAP120.160.1956.5253.330.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1930.0033.57-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.150.1747.0643.12-0.01-0.02
LSUSEC0.150.1663.6459.440.040.03
WisconsinB100.300.1660.8755.900.060.02
NortheasternCAA0.210.1347.8348.71-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1370.0069.350.040.05
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1354.5553.540.010.01
MichiganB100.200.1372.7367.970.090.05
DavidsonA100.050.1357.8955.420.010.01
BucknellPat0.150.1352.3856.750.010.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1334.7841.60-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.230.1171.4370.810.100.05
BrownIvy0.230.1129.4129.72-0.10-0.05
HarvardIvy0.100.1138.8942.86-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.170.1172.7371.670.080.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.1113.6413.79-0.16-0.08
Appalachian St.SB0.060.1127.2730.42-0.03-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.110.1135.0034.92-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.170.1147.8344.51-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.160.1122.7323.65-0.09-0.06
HofstraCAA0.150.1168.1865.430.060.03
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1136.3642.18-0.06-0.02
RutgersB100.150.1122.7320.68-0.08-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1122.7324.28-0.06-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.150.1157.1452.310.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.150.1150.0054.850.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.1138.8943.23-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.1168.1867.800.020.04
IowaB100.050.1181.8279.900.030.06
RichmondA100.100.1152.3853.670.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1159.0962.730.020.03
XavierBE0.100.1190.9184.430.080.07
ProvidenceBE0.150.1078.2671.960.090.05
St. BonaventureA100.200.1070.0069.090.080.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1086.3685.330.070.07
WoffordSC0.100.1038.1043.38-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.100.1052.1750.250.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.200.1078.2680.340.110.06
MarylandB100.050.1086.9681.750.040.07
Michigan St.B100.050.1082.6181.380.030.07
NorthwesternB100.100.1066.6763.490.030.03
RadfordBSth0.200.1052.3853.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.1038.1033.39-0.01-0.03
St. John'sBE0.150.1027.2724.41-0.07-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0950.0048.760.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0935.2933.93-0.01-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.120.0968.7573.150.050.04
BYUWCC0.170.0869.5773.040.060.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0857.8961.910.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.0831.8235.17-0.04-0.02
LehighPat0.110.0830.0036.11-0.05-0.02
VermontAE0.170.0856.5258.380.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.0861.9059.920.030.02
AlbanyAE0.170.0873.9175.000.080.04
HartfordAE0.070.0826.0926.47-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0835.0035.36-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0875.0071.270.050.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0866.6761.680.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0841.6746.85-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.110.0881.8278.220.070.05
WinthropBSth0.110.0865.0063.360.030.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0863.6461.820.030.02
OhioMAC0.000.0860.0057.940.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.150.0847.6249.34-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.100.0866.6758.770.030.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0872.7368.660.020.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0842.8641.75-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.0868.1866.480.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0843.4845.72-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.0836.3634.96-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0836.3635.32-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0877.2771.670.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0860.0056.080.020.01
MinnesotaB100.150.0826.0927.82-0.07-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.0852.1751.550.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0858.3354.130.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0881.8277.420.100.04
TempleAmer0.050.0861.9058.400.010.01
CreightonBE0.150.0860.8759.050.030.01
MissouriSEC0.100.0836.3630.98-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0868.1869.350.020.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.0820.8320.11-0.06-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.100.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0833.3332.42-0.02-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0642.8635.05-0.01-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.0666.6766.030.040.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0668.4265.480.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0057.300.000.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0657.8956.100.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0663.6464.080.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0625.0022.59-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.070.0631.2532.68-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.0086.110.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0661.1158.310.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0640.0044.99-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.1840.27-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0620.0023.76-0.04-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.0665.0068.740.040.02
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0642.1142.70-0.02-0.01
USCP120.070.0678.2673.090.040.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0615.0015.65-0.08-0.04
NJITASun0.120.0652.1754.520.010.01
UNLVMWC0.110.0652.3857.440.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0631.5833.50-0.04-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.0623.8125.04-0.06-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0631.5836.17-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.8432.84-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0630.0028.62-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0614.2918.59-0.04-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0683.3380.130.040.03
James MadisonCAA0.100.0669.5768.670.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0650.0045.740.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.6457.320.000.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0636.8434.21-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0647.8343.93-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0640.0049.72-0.02-0.00
AuburnSEC0.110.0542.8637.22-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.110.0563.6456.050.030.01
ArizonaP120.050.0578.2677.230.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0526.3233.83-0.05-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0527.2732.87-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0552.3854.240.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0582.6178.230.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0563.6465.480.030.02
AkronMAC0.050.0580.9579.160.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0555.0048.830.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.8957.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0572.7366.980.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0552.3853.800.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0550.0050.870.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0528.5728.87-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0560.0054.580.020.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0525.0029.52-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.100.0552.6347.730.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0557.1457.580.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0520.8325.00-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.9063.360.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0568.1862.170.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.1033.46-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0572.7368.840.050.02
IPFWSum0.100.0573.9170.210.050.02
La SalleA100.110.0521.0520.90-0.06-0.03
LibertyBSth0.100.0531.8232.90-0.04-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0542.8639.88-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.100.0538.1041.23-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.100.0552.6351.510.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0526.0930.34-0.05-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0554.5561.940.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.054.7614.00-0.09-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0585.7176.020.040.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0510.5325.36-0.04-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0547.6257.24-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.0533.3332.89-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0581.8278.720.030.03
ColgatePat0.100.0542.8643.53-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0572.7372.460.040.02
FordhamA100.100.0557.8954.300.020.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0581.8281.000.000.03
High PointBSth0.050.0557.8961.470.010.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1457.700.000.01
IUPUISum0.050.0541.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0559.0955.560.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0545.0043.24-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0565.2256.540.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0526.0926.65-0.05-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0552.1754.150.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0547.8343.65-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0538.1037.49-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0540.0042.55-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0540.9143.36-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0568.1861.760.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0581.8281.000.030.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0530.0034.84-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0547.6247.96-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.0521.34-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.1342.27-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9060.410.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0390.4885.540.050.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0368.4271.820.020.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0340.9140.45-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0325.0029.75-0.03-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0316.6724.28-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0345.0044.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0350.0053.080.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0363.6468.200.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0359.0958.090.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0373.6870.400.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0029.91-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.5555.990.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.220.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.038.709.78-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0352.6352.150.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0029.29-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.87-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0323.8128.31-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0340.9139.23-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0361.9062.050.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0321.0529.17-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0310.0015.31-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.92-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0366.6760.120.020.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6767.310.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.35-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.7916.40-0.04-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.0082.450.030.02
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0314.2913.98-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.61-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0376.1979.640.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0331.8233.76-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0333.3334.18-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0321.7424.61-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0352.1754.440.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.9173.090.020.01
DaytonA100.000.0385.7181.210.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0357.1457.920.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0338.1042.99-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.72-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0357.1457.880.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0326.0925.57-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.050.0380.9577.010.030.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0331.8234.36-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0336.3635.58-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0318.7533.16-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0370.0068.920.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0354.5555.960.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.01
VMISC0.050.0316.6718.98-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.5555.190.000.00