The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Duke page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Duke

Conference:		ACC
Expected RPI:		3.7
Current RPI:		3
Expected SOS:		6
Current SOS:		4
Current Record:		19-4
Expected Record:		26-5
Current Conf Record:		7-2
Expected Conf Record:		13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		3-0
Current OOC Record:		12-2
Expected OOC Record:		13-2
Expected OOC RPI:		9
Expected OOC SOS:		27

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
27-4	1.9	17.66%
26-5	2.9	36.42%
25-6	4.3	29.75%
24-7	5.9	12.64%
23-8	8.4	3.07%
22-9	13.6	0.40%
21-10	20.8	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	NC Greensboro (263.1)	SC	H	96-62	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Coastal Carolina (129.1)	BSth	H	74-49	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Charlotte (47.1)	A10	H	101-59	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Radford (173.0)	BSth	H	104-67	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Arizona St. (71.5)	P10	N	64-53	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Connecticut (54.2)	BE	N	68-59	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Wisconsin (12.3)	B10	A	69-73	L	0%	0.0
12-5	St. John's (101.2)	BE	H	80-71	W	100%	0.0
12-15	Gardner Webb (308.9)	BSth	H	113-68	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Gonzaga (35.5)	WCC	N	76-41	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Long Beach St. (139.7)	BW	H	84-63	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Pennsylvania (297.7)	Ivy	H	114-55	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Clemson (37.6)	ACC	H	74-53	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Iowa St. (110.1)	B12	N	86-65	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Georgia Tech (25.2)	ACC	A	67-71	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Boston College (106.8)	ACC	H	79-59	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Wake Forest (25.2)	ACC	H	90-70	W	100%	0.0
1-20	North Carolina St. (110.7)	ACC	A	74-88	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Clemson (37.6)	ACC	A	60-47	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Florida St. (41.5)	ACC	H	70-56	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Georgetown (8.9)	BE	A	77-89	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Georgia Tech (25.2)	ACC	H	86-67	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Boston College (106.8)	ACC	A	66-63	W	100%	0.0
2-10	North Carolina (83.6)	ACC	A	0-0		78%	8.3
2-13	Maryland (35.5)	ACC	H	0-0		82%	9.9
2-17	Miami FL (90.7)	ACC	A	0-0		78%	8.3
2-21	Virginia Tech (62.2)	ACC	H	0-0		92%	15.2
2-25	Tulsa (63.1)	CUSA	H	0-0		94%	17.2
2-28	Virginia (92.0)	ACC	A	0-0		78%	8.4
3-3	Maryland (35.5)	ACC	A	0-0		57%	1.9
3-6	North Carolina (83.6)	ACC	H	0-0		93%	16.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Duke's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Duke's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Duke.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Duke	ACC	26.42	26.12	85.88	85.29	18.96	18.44
Clemson	ACC	4.78	3.86	76.19	71.66	2.50	1.67
Georgia Tech	ACC	4.68	3.79	75.00	69.47	2.34	1.48
Boston College	ACC	4.58	3.74	57.14	52.24	0.65	0.17
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.51	2.24	56.52	52.79	0.33	0.13
Florida St.	ACC	2.51	2.27	77.27	71.89	1.37	0.99
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.43	1.81	21.05	24.52	-1.41	-0.92
Wake Forest	ACC	2.41	2.26	80.00	73.78	1.45	1.08
NC Greensboro	SC	2.37	1.80	22.73	25.73	-1.29	-0.88
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.33	1.73	85.00	85.23	1.63	1.22
Radford	BSth	2.33	1.73	55.00	58.39	0.23	0.29
Charlotte	A10	2.33	1.70	81.82	74.20	1.48	0.82
Gonzaga	WCC	2.27	1.67	85.71	86.60	1.62	1.22
Connecticut	BE	2.27	1.67	63.64	58.37	0.62	0.28
Georgetown	BE	2.27	1.67	76.19	72.41	1.19	0.75
St. John's	BE	2.27	1.67	57.14	50.94	0.32	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	2.27	1.67	45.00	47.35	-0.23	-0.09
Wisconsin	B10	2.22	1.70	77.27	78.19	1.21	0.96
Arizona St.	P10	2.17	1.61	69.57	70.00	0.85	0.65
Iowa St.	B12	2.17	1.61	59.09	52.15	0.40	0.07
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.17	1.61	17.65	20.68	-1.41	-0.95
Maryland	ACC	0.48	3.79	71.43	70.61	0.20	1.56
Winthrop	BSth	0.40	0.29	52.38	54.80	0.02	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.34	3.78	56.52	54.55	0.04	0.34
Miami FL	ACC	0.34	2.18	68.18	64.18	0.12	0.62
High Point	BSth	0.32	0.21	42.86	44.37	-0.05	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.31	0.21	33.33	37.71	-0.10	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.30	0.29	12.50	15.31	-0.23	-0.20
Virginia	ACC	0.29	2.19	66.67	58.56	0.10	0.37
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.28	2.24	81.82	74.80	0.18	1.11
Liberty	BSth	0.25	0.24	42.86	41.51	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.25	0.17	73.68	75.41	0.12	0.08
Elon	SC	0.24	0.20	19.05	23.26	-0.15	-0.11
East Carolina	CUSA	0.24	0.16	20.00	21.94	-0.14	-0.09
Marquette	BE	0.24	0.16	65.22	66.09	0.07	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.24	0.13	45.45	44.00	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.21	0.26	40.00	40.09	-0.04	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.21	0.21	21.05	22.43	-0.12	-0.11
Penn St.	B10	0.21	0.17	34.78	32.23	-0.06	-0.06
Villanova	BE	0.21	0.19	90.91	82.52	0.17	0.13
Temple	A10	0.21	0.14	79.17	77.57	0.12	0.08
Texas	B12	0.20	0.16	82.61	78.76	0.13	0.09
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.20	0.17	29.41	29.63	-0.08	-0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.20	0.14	71.43	69.51	0.08	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.20	0.19	65.22	62.07	0.06	0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.19	0.16	66.67	65.62	0.06	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.19	0.11	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.19	0.11	42.86	42.46	-0.03	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.19	0.13	52.17	46.62	0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.19	0.11	42.86	41.05	-0.03	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.19	0.14	59.09	54.41	0.03	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.09	39.13	43.30	-0.03	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.11	15.79	17.64	-0.11	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.11	39.13	36.57	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.14	68.18	66.65	0.05	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.09	62.50	57.74	0.04	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.11	17.39	20.11	-0.10	-0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.11	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.10	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.08	86.36	81.80	0.11	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.11	75.00	71.23	0.07	0.05
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.08	54.17	57.70	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.19	60.87	55.54	0.03	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.11	34.78	33.89	-0.04	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.11	73.91	70.80	0.07	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.08	33.33	46.80	-0.05	-0.01
Southern California	P10	0.14	0.11	60.87	59.61	0.03	0.02
Bryant	ind	0.14	0.08	0.00	4.18	-0.14	-0.07
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.08	83.33	83.91	0.10	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.08	45.83	47.77	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	66.67	59.01	0.05	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.13	79.17	76.61	0.08	0.07
Maine	AE	0.14	0.08	63.64	61.86	0.04	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.08	31.82	31.64	-0.05	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.08	91.30	88.21	0.12	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.13	75.00	73.72	0.07	0.06
Washington	P10	0.14	0.08	69.57	68.86	0.05	0.03
Washington St.	P10	0.14	0.08	63.64	58.79	0.04	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.11	69.57	67.93	0.05	0.04
Arizona	P10	0.14	0.10	52.17	53.65	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.06	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	23.81	27.31	-0.06	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.08	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.16	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.06	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.08	36.36	38.12	-0.03	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.06	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.06	45.00	48.63	-0.01	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.06	36.36	40.08	-0.03	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.11	47.83	44.39	-0.00	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.11	27.27	25.31	-0.05	-0.06
Savannah St.	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.04	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.11	86.36	82.20	0.07	0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.08	36.36	36.06	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.08	95.65	91.32	0.09	0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.11	95.65	88.67	0.09	0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.14	70.83	63.39	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.06	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.08	69.57	71.43	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.08	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.06	61.90	65.68	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.16	47.83	42.90	-0.00	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.08	60.00	59.64	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P10	0.10	0.08	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
Colorado	B12	0.10	0.11	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.05	9.52	8.87	-0.08	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.05	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.05	22.73	27.28	-0.05	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.05	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.05	72.00	73.54	0.04	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.11	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.05	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.08	31.82	32.31	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.05	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.08	22.22	27.56	-0.05	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.08	86.36	81.50	0.07	0.05
Samford	SC	0.09	0.06	28.57	31.03	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	52.94	56.30	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.05	43.48	43.78	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.05	61.90	56.12	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.85	0.04	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.06	66.67	67.94	0.03	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.05	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.05	76.19	72.73	0.05	0.02
California	P10	0.09	0.08	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.05	73.91	67.72	0.04	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.05	37.50	38.45	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.05	39.13	35.38	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.08	18.18	21.04	-0.06	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.06	0.08	23.08	25.77	-0.03	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	26.09	26.91	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.06	8.70	11.46	-0.05	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.03	41.67	42.69	-0.01	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.11	30.43	32.32	-0.02	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.08	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	33.21	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	33.33	36.45	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	73.91	76.66	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.08	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	18.18	19.18	-0.03	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	41.53	-0.01	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.08	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.43	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.11	65.22	62.18	0.02	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	86.96	84.62	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.16	95.83	91.37	0.05	0.13
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.08	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	36.52	-0.02	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.15	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.08	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.57	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	27.27	31.08	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.11	24.00	23.74	-0.02	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	55.07	0.00	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	23.53	25.88	-0.03	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.00	-0.03	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.57	-0.03	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.08	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.08	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.03	15.79	27.84	-0.03	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.41	0.02	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.09	70.59	70.98	0.02	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	14.29	15.65	-0.03	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	81.82	75.66	0.03	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	5.00	8.59	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	20.00	24.04	-0.03	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.55	-0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	68.18	59.30	0.02	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	55.04	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	87.42	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	26.09	31.05	-0.02	-0.01
New Orleans	SB	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.86	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.16	4.76	9.78	-0.04	-0.13
Oregon	P10	0.05	0.05	54.55	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P10	0.05	0.05	45.45	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.01
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.08	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.82	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.03	22.73	21.40	-0.00	-0.02
Campbell	ASun	0.00	0.03	57.14	58.76	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.81	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.06	40.00	39.13	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.06	65.22	64.71	0.00	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.06	69.57	64.51	0.00	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.08	45.45	47.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.00	0.03	29.17	28.85	-0.00	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	42.24	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.00	0.03	45.00	48.32	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.11	40.91	34.84	-0.00	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	49.36	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.11	23.81	29.40	-0.00	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.11	66.67	65.54	0.00	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.05	63.64	64.66	0.00	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.00	0.05	73.91	70.60	0.00	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	66.67	64.62	0.00	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.08	57.14	60.54	0.00	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	25.00	34.68	-0.00	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.05	69.57	63.55	0.00	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.00	0.06	68.18	68.10	0.00	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.03	31.82	30.34	-0.00	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.00	0.03	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.00	0.03	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.05	45.00	43.95	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	55.56	55.85	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.05	77.27	75.69	0.00	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.03	12.00	18.82	-0.00	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.00	0.03	45.45	45.80	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	1.61	77.27	73.18	0.00	0.75
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.05	82.61	78.56	0.00	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.05	40.91	43.37	-0.00	-0.01

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Duke	ACC	26.42	26.12	85.88	85.29	18.96	18.44
Clemson	ACC	4.78	3.86	76.19	71.66	2.50	1.67
Maryland	ACC	0.48	3.79	71.43	70.61	0.20	1.56
Georgia Tech	ACC	4.68	3.79	75.00	69.47	2.34	1.48
North Carolina	ACC	0.34	3.78	56.52	54.55	0.04	0.34
Boston College	ACC	4.58	3.74	57.14	52.24	0.65	0.17
Florida St.	ACC	2.51	2.27	77.27	71.89	1.37	0.99
Wake Forest	ACC	2.41	2.26	80.00	73.78	1.45	1.08
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.51	2.24	56.52	52.79	0.33	0.13
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.28	2.24	81.82	74.80	0.18	1.11
Virginia	ACC	0.29	2.19	66.67	58.56	0.10	0.37
Miami FL	ACC	0.34	2.18	68.18	64.18	0.12	0.62
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.43	1.81	21.05	24.52	-1.41	-0.92
NC Greensboro	SC	2.37	1.80	22.73	25.73	-1.29	-0.88
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.33	1.73	85.00	85.23	1.63	1.22
Radford	BSth	2.33	1.73	55.00	58.39	0.23	0.29
Charlotte	A10	2.33	1.70	81.82	74.20	1.48	0.82
Wisconsin	B10	2.22	1.70	77.27	78.19	1.21	0.96
Gonzaga	WCC	2.27	1.67	85.71	86.60	1.62	1.22
Connecticut	BE	2.27	1.67	63.64	58.37	0.62	0.28
St. John's	BE	2.27	1.67	57.14	50.94	0.32	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	2.27	1.67	45.00	47.35	-0.23	-0.09
Georgetown	BE	2.27	1.67	76.19	72.41	1.19	0.75
Arizona St.	P10	2.17	1.61	69.57	70.00	0.85	0.65
Iowa St.	B12	2.17	1.61	59.09	52.15	0.40	0.07
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.17	1.61	17.65	20.68	-1.41	-0.95
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	1.61	77.27	73.18	0.00	0.75
Winthrop	BSth	0.40	0.29	52.38	54.80	0.02	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.30	0.29	12.50	15.31	-0.23	-0.20
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.21	0.26	40.00	40.09	-0.04	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.25	0.24	42.86	41.51	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.32	0.21	42.86	44.37	-0.05	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.31	0.21	33.33	37.71	-0.10	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.21	0.21	21.05	22.43	-0.12	-0.11
Elon	SC	0.24	0.20	19.05	23.26	-0.15	-0.11
Villanova	BE	0.21	0.19	90.91	82.52	0.17	0.13
Louisville	BE	0.20	0.19	65.22	62.07	0.06	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.19	60.87	55.54	0.03	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.21	0.17	34.78	32.23	-0.06	-0.06
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.20	0.17	29.41	29.63	-0.08	-0.07
Harvard	Ivy	0.25	0.17	73.68	75.41	0.12	0.08
East Carolina	CUSA	0.24	0.16	20.00	21.94	-0.14	-0.09
Texas	B12	0.20	0.16	82.61	78.76	0.13	0.09
College of Charleston	SC	0.19	0.16	66.67	65.62	0.06	0.05
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.16	4.76	9.78	-0.04	-0.13
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.16	47.83	42.90	-0.00	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.16	95.83	91.37	0.05	0.13
Marquette	BE	0.24	0.16	65.22	66.09	0.07	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.20	0.14	71.43	69.51	0.08	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.14	68.18	66.65	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.21	0.14	79.17	77.57	0.12	0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.14	70.83	63.39	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	66.67	59.01	0.05	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.19	0.14	59.09	54.41	0.03	0.01
Providence	BE	0.19	0.13	52.17	46.62	0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.13	79.17	76.61	0.08	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.24	0.13	45.45	44.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.13	75.00	73.72	0.07	0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.11	30.43	32.32	-0.02	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.11	17.39	20.11	-0.10	-0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.11	27.27	25.31	-0.05	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	23.81	27.31	-0.06	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.11	15.79	17.64	-0.11	-0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.11	47.83	44.39	-0.00	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.19	0.11	47.83	46.11	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.11	75.00	71.23	0.07	0.05
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.11	23.81	29.40	-0.00	-0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.11	86.36	82.20	0.07	0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.11	39.13	36.57	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.19	0.11	42.86	41.05	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.11	47.62	45.44	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.11	40.91	34.84	-0.00	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.19	0.11	42.86	42.46	-0.03	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.11	65.22	62.18	0.02	0.03
Southern California	P10	0.14	0.11	60.87	59.61	0.03	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.11	34.78	33.89	-0.04	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.11	73.91	70.80	0.07	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.11	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.11	95.65	88.67	0.09	0.08
Colorado	B12	0.10	0.11	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.11	24.00	23.74	-0.02	-0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.00	0.11	66.67	65.54	0.00	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.11	69.57	67.93	0.05	0.04
Arizona	P10	0.14	0.10	52.17	53.65	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.09	39.13	43.30	-0.03	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.09	62.50	57.74	0.04	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.09	70.59	70.98	0.02	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.08	36.36	36.06	-0.03	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.08	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.08	36.36	38.12	-0.03	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.08	47.62	50.81	-0.01	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.08	60.00	59.64	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.08	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.08	45.45	47.48	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.08	86.36	81.80	0.11	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.08	69.57	71.43	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.08	72.73	71.91	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.08	83.33	81.25	0.10	0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.08	31.82	29.58	-0.02	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.08	95.65	91.32	0.09	0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.08	33.33	46.80	-0.05	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.08	54.17	57.70	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.08	31.82	32.31	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.08	18.18	21.04	-0.06	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.08	83.33	83.91	0.10	0.06
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.08	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.08	22.22	27.56	-0.05	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	52.94	56.30	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.08	23.08	25.77	-0.03	-0.04
UCLA	P10	0.10	0.08	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	ind	0.14	0.08	0.00	4.18	-0.14	-0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.08	31.82	31.64	-0.05	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.08	86.36	81.50	0.07	0.05
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.08	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P10	0.14	0.08	69.57	68.86	0.05	0.03
Washington St.	P10	0.14	0.08	63.64	58.79	0.04	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.08	47.62	44.47	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.08	45.83	47.77	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.08	33.33	30.82	-0.02	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.14	0.08	63.64	61.86	0.04	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.08	91.30	88.21	0.12	0.06
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.85	0.04	0.03
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.08	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.08	57.14	60.54	0.00	0.02
California	P10	0.09	0.08	65.22	68.42	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.06	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.06	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.01
Savannah St.	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.04	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.06	45.00	48.63	-0.01	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.06	40.00	39.13	-0.00	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.00	0.06	68.18	68.10	0.00	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	33.21	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.06	36.36	40.08	-0.03	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	33.33	36.45	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.16	0.02	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	26.09	26.91	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.06	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.06	8.70	11.46	-0.05	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.06	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.15	0.00	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.94	-0.06	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.06	61.90	65.68	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.09	0.06	28.57	31.03	-0.04	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.43	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	86.96	84.62	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.06	66.67	67.94	0.03	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.06	65.22	64.71	0.00	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.06	69.57	64.51	0.00	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.06	35.00	38.23	-0.00	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.05	42.86	45.31	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.05	63.64	64.66	0.00	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.05	72.00	73.54	0.04	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	14.29	15.65	-0.03	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.05	82.61	78.56	0.00	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.05	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.05	22.73	27.28	-0.05	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.05	59.09	51.13	0.02	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.05	9.52	8.87	-0.08	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	55.07	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.05	45.00	43.95	-0.00	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.05	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.05	43.48	43.78	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.05	77.27	75.69	0.00	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.57	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.05	73.91	67.72	0.04	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.05	37.50	38.45	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.05	72.00	70.73	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.05	69.57	63.55	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.05	61.90	56.12	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.05	76.19	72.73	0.05	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.05	39.13	35.38	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.00	0.05	73.91	70.60	0.00	0.02
Oregon	P10	0.05	0.05	54.55	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P10	0.05	0.05	45.45	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.05	40.91	43.37	-0.00	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.03	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.00	0.03	45.00	48.32	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.03	41.67	42.69	-0.01	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	73.91	76.66	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	53.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.03	22.73	21.40	-0.00	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.81	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	18.18	19.18	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.00	0.03	29.17	28.85	-0.00	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	42.24	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	47.65	-0.01	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	25.00	34.68	-0.00	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.00	0.03	52.00	49.34	0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.03	12.00	18.82	-0.00	-0.02