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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:181.2
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:23
Current SOS:36
Current Record:4-6
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1472.50.08%
15-1588.90.39%
14-16107.61.38%
13-17124.53.92%
12-18141.59.57%
11-19158.915.93%
10-20175.921.45%
9-21192.921.24%
8-22209.915.69%
7-23225.97.33%
6-24240.82.53%
5-25254.70.46%
4-26276.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMKC (276.8)WACH61-69L0%0.0
11-16Valparaiso (86.0)HorzH56-41W100%0.0
11-19Oral Roberts (216.3)SumH78-64W100%0.0
11-24Arizona (14.7)P12N72-53L0%0.0
11-25Purdue (77.8)B10N61-82L0%0.0
12-2Southeast Missouri St. (247.9)OVCH65-61W100%0.0
12-5Oklahoma (24.9)B12A82-63L0%0.0
12-11Elon (183.1)CAAH78-73W100%0.0
12-13Xavier (27.1)BEH58-74L0%0.0
12-20Illinois (59.0)B10N59-62L0%0.0
12-30Oklahoma St. (29.8)B12N0-013%-13.1
1-3Lipscomb (261.2)ASunH0-078%9.1
1-8LSU (69.7)SECH0-037%-3.9
1-10Auburn (171.1)SECA0-032%-5.3
1-13Kentucky (1.3)SECA0-00%-34.5
1-17Tennessee (131.8)SECH0-052%0.4
1-21Texas A&M (71.4)SECA0-013%-13.2
1-24Arkansas (41.7)SECH0-025%-7.7
1-29Kentucky (1.3)SECH0-01%-26.1
1-31Mississippi (101.2)SECH0-046%-1.1
2-4Alabama (90.0)SECA0-017%-11.3
2-7Texas A&M (71.4)SECH0-034%-4.9
2-10South Carolina (39.3)SECA0-05%-18.7
2-14Mississippi St. (226.2)SECH0-064%4.2
2-18Arkansas (41.7)SECA0-08%-16.1
2-21Vanderbilt (103.7)SECA0-015%-12.1
2-24Florida (38.8)SECH0-019%-10.2
2-28Georgia (54.3)SECA0-010%-14.7
3-3Auburn (171.1)SECH0-060%3.0
3-7Mississippi St. (226.2)SECA0-036%-4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC27.3626.1127.2725.81-12.44-12.63
ArkansasSEC0.253.9480.0071.460.151.69
AuburnSEC0.233.9450.0038.790.00-0.88
Texas A&MSEC0.003.9170.0060.230.000.80
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.9144.4436.51-0.00-1.05
KentuckySEC0.003.89100.0096.080.003.58
AlabamaSEC0.232.3866.6753.120.080.15
VanderbiltSEC0.212.3666.6757.280.070.34
MississippiSEC0.002.3670.0052.550.000.12
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3566.6765.000.000.71
LSUSEC0.002.3380.0063.940.000.65
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3362.5058.000.000.37
TennesseeSEC0.002.3355.5646.210.00-0.18
FloridaSEC0.002.3363.6464.690.000.68
OklahomaB125.251.7566.6761.431.750.40
Oklahoma St.B120.001.7588.8962.170.000.43
XavierBE5.001.7570.0066.512.000.58
PurdueB105.001.7563.6458.021.360.28
Southeast Missouri St.OVC5.001.7544.4447.96-0.56-0.07
IllinoisB105.001.7272.7363.982.270.48
LipscombASun0.001.6922.2239.11-0.00-0.37
Oral RobertsSum5.251.6944.4445.71-0.58-0.15
ArizonaP125.001.67100.0082.055.001.07
ElonCAA5.001.6750.0052.900.000.10
UMKCWAC5.001.6711.1138.73-3.89-0.38
ValparaisoHorz5.001.6790.0075.894.000.86
Kansas St.B120.670.3163.6440.190.18-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.500.2630.0031.48-0.20-0.09
Iowa St.B120.250.2590.0065.480.200.08
BaylorB120.210.2590.0073.240.170.12
Oregon St.P120.250.2277.7856.220.140.03
KansasB120.000.2290.0070.680.000.09
TexasB120.000.2090.9179.980.000.12
TCUB120.000.20100.0067.700.000.07
Texas TechB120.000.2090.0055.360.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.210.1822.2229.80-0.12-0.07
North FloridaASun0.490.1850.0057.820.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.1766.6758.000.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1660.0043.890.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1563.6467.210.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1544.4449.14-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1510.0018.05-0.00-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.1445.4543.23-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.500.1460.0056.620.100.02
West VirginiaB120.000.1490.9170.080.000.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1445.4545.10-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.1430.0038.57-0.08-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1454.5548.490.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.1416.6740.27-0.17-0.03
DaytonA100.000.1480.0069.770.000.05
UCLAP120.250.1466.6754.480.080.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1233.3328.79-0.00-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0015.00-0.00-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.450.1260.0065.120.090.04
IPFWSum0.440.1250.0054.190.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.1150.0068.770.000.04
IUPUISum0.440.1127.2728.86-0.20-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1136.3645.11-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1144.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1120.0040.93-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1120.0052.97-0.000.01
NorthwesternB100.280.1163.6442.810.08-0.02
ButlerBE0.250.1172.7367.960.110.04
CreightonBE0.250.1175.0052.140.130.00
MinnesotaB100.000.1180.0067.830.000.04
RutgersB100.000.1154.5532.590.00-0.04
MichiganB100.210.1150.0040.450.00-0.02
OregonP120.210.1170.0057.440.080.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0057.390.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0963.6464.880.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0977.7870.160.000.04
Missouri St.MVC0.500.0933.3337.22-0.17-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0940.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.0944.4455.37-0.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.0970.0059.660.100.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.500.0920.0045.74-0.30-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0963.6455.660.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.250.0933.3361.74-0.080.02
OaklandHorz0.210.0927.2732.45-0.09-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.0937.5049.31-0.06-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.230.0972.7362.220.100.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0960.0047.170.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.250.0837.5044.33-0.06-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1457.100.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0850.0047.880.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0860.0033.270.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0890.9168.230.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0842.8636.81-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.210.0842.8648.87-0.03-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0857.1470.520.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0854.5541.980.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0820.0044.37-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0855.5673.740.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0860.0048.980.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0890.0067.380.000.03
WisconsinB100.250.0890.9188.840.200.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.0837.5050.31-0.050.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0870.0059.220.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0881.8263.330.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0866.6767.300.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6744.720.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0872.7374.850.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0881.8282.250.000.05
VillanovaBE0.210.08100.0082.970.210.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0845.4537.60-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3343.14-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.17-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0640.0043.04-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0612.5026.89-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6764.770.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.35-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0645.4555.13-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.010.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5655.280.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.88-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
MemphisAmer0.250.0660.0062.070.050.01
San DiegoWCC0.480.0654.5557.570.040.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.0671.4363.770.100.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0616.6733.39-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.280.0654.5564.070.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.59-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.56-0.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0622.2235.90-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.180.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.280.0630.0028.65-0.11-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0670.0060.920.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3343.83-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0657.1455.330.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.280.0642.8649.02-0.04-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.210.0630.0029.75-0.08-0.02
SamfordSC0.460.0633.3330.28-0.15-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0680.0053.260.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0050.620.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.069.0917.12-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.47-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0654.5559.560.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.260.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.210.0590.9190.540.170.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.210.0575.0061.480.100.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0542.8626.99-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0533.3339.85-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.250.05100.0075.440.250.03
YaleIvy0.000.0566.6761.820.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0533.3362.72-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0530.0041.69-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0577.7870.890.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.9169.030.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0570.0064.680.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0566.6767.930.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0536.3646.72-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.160.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0069.200.000.02
IowaB100.000.0566.6759.420.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.450.0536.3650.71-0.120.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0084.930.000.04
Miami FLACC0.210.0581.8266.010.130.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0520.0026.07-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.0536.3648.28-0.06-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0591.6755.310.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0572.7375.710.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0588.8965.170.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.320.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0530.0036.69-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0555.5655.710.000.01
UtahP120.000.0580.0080.520.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.440.0560.0071.280.090.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.030.0028.43-0.25-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.0375.0067.140.130.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.250.030.0017.69-0.25-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0325.0023.40-0.13-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.21-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.0354.5544.930.02-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.0318.1837.71-0.14-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.230.0325.0037.03-0.11-0.01
DrakeMVC0.230.0318.1819.46-0.14-0.02
MaineAE0.230.0311.1120.80-0.18-0.02
PortlandWCC0.230.0370.0051.040.090.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.150.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.250.0342.8637.83-0.04-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5662.150.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
DukeACC0.280.03100.0087.090.280.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.250.0380.0076.450.150.02
MaristMAAC0.000.039.0916.15-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.0316.6735.27-0.19-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.10-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2944.44-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.0320.0035.33-0.17-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.64-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.63-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0344.4436.80-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.32-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0372.7375.740.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.480.000.02
AmericanPat0.210.0363.6463.240.060.01
BrownIvy0.210.0340.0033.80-0.04-0.01
BYUWCC0.210.0370.0068.340.080.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.0318.1822.49-0.13-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.51-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.030.0014.00-0.21-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.0366.6762.580.070.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.030.009.06-0.21-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.210.0345.4549.62-0.02-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.17-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.210.0333.3341.20-0.07-0.00
Notre DameACC0.210.0391.6777.120.170.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0082.310.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0372.7372.580.090.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.33-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.230.0366.6778.020.080.02
UC IrvineBW0.210.0337.5046.38-0.05-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.410.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.13-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00