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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:222.0
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:75
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21222.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wofford (199.0)SCH83-74W100%0.0
11-15Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH73-55W100%0.0
11-17Xavier (7.0)BEA78-66L0%0.0
11-23Kansas St. (92.0)B12N66-42L0%0.0
11-24Northwestern (115.0)B10N67-62L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH88-78W100%0.0
12-4Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH78-71W100%0.0
12-9Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH85-78W100%0.0
12-13Arizona (26.0)P12A88-52L0%0.0
12-19North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH59-73L0%0.0
12-23Illinois (149.0)B10N63-68L0%0.0
12-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH78-25W100%0.0
1-2Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH81-50W100%0.0
1-6Georgia (62.0)SECA77-59L0%0.0
1-9Auburn (175.0)SECH76-61W100%0.0
1-12Arkansas (133.0)SECH61-94L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina (65.0)SECA81-72L0%0.0
1-20Georgia (62.0)SECH57-60L0%0.0
1-23Texas A&M (18.0)SECA66-53L0%0.0
1-27Kentucky (11.0)SECA88-54L0%0.0
1-30Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH62-76L0%0.0
2-3Mississippi (96.0)SECH73-76L0%0.0
2-6Alabama (73.0)SECA80-71L0%0.0
2-10Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA86-71L0%0.0
2-13Tennessee (143.0)SECH75-64W100%0.0
2-16South Carolina (65.0)SECH72-67W100%0.0
2-20Arkansas (133.0)SECA84-72L0%0.0
2-23Mississippi (96.0)SECA85-76L0%0.0
2-27Texas A&M (18.0)SECH69-84L0%0.0
3-1LSU (94.0)SECA80-71L0%0.0
3-5Florida (55.0)SECH72-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC26.0426.0423.6223.62-13.74-13.74
GeorgiaSEC3.903.9056.6756.670.520.52
Texas A&MSEC3.853.8575.0075.001.931.93
MississippiSEC3.803.8060.0060.000.760.76
South CarolinaSEC3.803.8075.8675.861.961.96
ArkansasSEC3.773.7746.6746.67-0.25-0.25
Mississippi St.SEC2.312.3143.3343.33-0.31-0.31
FloridaSEC2.312.3156.2556.250.290.29
LSUSEC2.302.3056.2556.250.290.29
TennesseeSEC2.292.2945.4545.45-0.21-0.21
AlabamaSEC2.292.2954.8454.840.220.22
KentuckySEC2.282.2875.7675.761.181.18
AuburnSEC2.262.2636.6736.67-0.60-0.60
VanderbiltSEC2.232.2358.0658.060.360.36
Kansas St.B121.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
Savannah St.MEAC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC1.661.6644.8344.83-0.17-0.17
XavierBE1.661.6683.8783.871.131.13
Arkansas St.SB1.641.6432.1432.14-0.59-0.59
IllinoisB101.641.6442.4242.42-0.25-0.25
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
NorthwesternB101.641.6461.2961.290.370.37
ArizonaP121.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
Nebraska OmahaSum1.611.6157.1457.140.230.23
Northern IllinoisMAC1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
BaylorB120.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Seton HallBE0.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
Georgia TechACC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1520.8320.83-0.09-0.09
Texas TechB120.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
MinnesotaB100.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
South DakotaSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
OregonP120.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
DePaulBE0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
MichiganB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
NebraskaB100.120.1247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
KansasB120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
IndianaB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01