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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:167.3
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:243
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-856.00.01%
21-960.20.09%
20-1070.10.27%
19-1183.00.90%
18-1296.42.69%
17-13111.36.38%
16-14127.310.92%
15-15144.915.53%
14-16163.117.70%
13-17180.317.39%
12-18199.613.60%
11-19216.38.24%
10-20232.14.00%
9-21247.31.72%
8-22264.00.47%
7-23274.20.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH99-44W100%0.0
11-17Xavier (11.9)BEN82-83L0%0.0
11-18Davidson (48.3)A10N55-70L0%0.0
11-20Tulane (269.7)AmerN62-67W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern St. (292.4)SlndH84-60W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACH52-62L0%0.0
12-3Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAH0-088%14.0
12-6Miami OH (271.3)MACH0-088%13.8
12-10Arizona (28.2)P12H0-031%-6.0
12-17Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-085%12.3
12-21Illinois (134.7)B10N0-048%-0.5
12-29Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-090%15.3
1-4LSU (94.2)SECH0-056%1.9
1-7Georgia (65.1)SECA0-025%-8.0
1-10Auburn (96.0)SECH0-053%1.0
1-14Arkansas (54.3)SECA0-023%-8.8
1-18Alabama (102.9)SECA0-029%-6.8
1-21Mississippi (134.5)SECH0-064%4.3
1-25Mississippi St. (171.1)SECA0-051%0.5
1-28South Carolina (17.4)SECH0-023%-8.8
2-2Florida (9.6)SECA0-08%-16.5
2-4Arkansas (54.3)SECH0-041%-2.6
2-8Texas A&M (42.0)SECA0-015%-12.4
2-11Vanderbilt (72.4)SECH0-047%-1.0
2-15Alabama (102.9)SECH0-048%-0.6
2-18Tennessee (165.2)SECA0-047%-1.0
2-21Kentucky (7.3)SECH0-010%-15.4
2-25Mississippi (134.5)SECA0-044%-1.9
2-28Texas A&M (42.0)SECH0-030%-6.2
3-4Auburn (96.0)SECA0-033%-5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC29.3226.1139.2939.84-6.28-5.31
Texas A&MSEC1.043.9766.6765.300.351.21
AuburnSEC0.003.9483.3355.090.000.40
ArkansasSEC0.003.9183.3362.500.000.98
MississippiSEC0.003.9171.4346.000.00-0.31
AlabamaSEC0.003.9166.6755.610.000.44
LSUSEC0.002.4171.4349.980.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC1.042.3671.4342.840.45-0.34
TennesseeSEC0.002.3225.0033.82-0.00-0.75
VanderbiltSEC0.002.3257.1448.720.00-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3266.6753.680.000.17
KentuckySEC0.002.30100.0086.120.001.66
FloridaSEC0.002.2987.5074.780.001.14
South CarolinaSEC0.002.29100.0080.910.001.42
Northwestern St.Slnd8.331.750.0035.43-8.33-0.51
ArizonaP120.001.7285.7171.050.000.72
LipscombASun0.001.6914.2933.92-0.00-0.54
North Carolina CentralMEAC8.331.6960.0074.421.670.83
Alabama A&MSWAC8.331.670.0013.78-8.33-1.21
DavidsonA108.331.6780.0067.765.000.59
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.6750.0044.580.00-0.18
IllinoisB100.001.6757.1442.350.00-0.25
Miami OHMAC0.001.6750.0033.750.00-0.54
TulaneAmer8.331.6716.6727.74-5.56-0.74
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.6742.8634.91-0.00-0.50
XavierBE8.331.67100.0073.968.330.80
North FloridaASun0.000.2214.2931.71-0.00-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.690.2014.2928.66-0.50-0.09
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2040.0041.65-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1740.0061.37-0.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1733.3338.20-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC1.290.1766.6753.460.430.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1525.0056.71-0.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.690.1442.8661.90-0.100.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1475.0054.320.000.01
OklahomaB121.640.1483.3351.921.090.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1428.5739.44-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.690.1433.3323.33-0.23-0.07
Arizona St.P121.290.1457.1436.050.18-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1483.3376.370.000.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1485.7159.740.000.03
TexasB120.000.1450.0036.240.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.690.1457.1461.940.100.03
UCLAP120.000.14100.0083.550.000.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1385.7173.010.000.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0020.01-0.00-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.690.1250.0052.140.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1233.3326.75-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.1228.5728.26-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.77-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.000.1185.7178.150.000.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1185.7180.960.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1157.1467.020.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1142.8646.78-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1166.6772.440.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.600.1185.7180.010.430.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.1160.0067.410.000.04
OregonP120.000.1171.4366.730.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.690.1166.6751.090.230.00
MercerSC0.690.1150.0053.050.000.01
USCP120.000.11100.0075.380.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1185.7162.920.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1185.7165.670.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1171.4354.520.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0075.690.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.600.0950.0056.430.000.01
TroySB0.000.0933.3332.23-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0950.0038.430.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.09100.0069.770.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.690.090.0042.55-0.69-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0983.3370.360.000.04
FordhamA100.000.0957.1443.680.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0058.600.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0975.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0928.5734.18-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0957.1444.160.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0850.0029.280.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.690.0883.3359.600.460.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0883.3361.150.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0814.2934.56-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.600.0840.0050.91-0.120.00
OhioMAC0.000.0880.0068.320.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.0883.3374.620.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0850.0052.330.000.00
KansasB120.000.0885.7176.170.000.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0825.0038.72-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.600.0866.6739.720.20-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0871.4366.530.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.550.000.05
Fort WayneSum0.000.0866.6770.930.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3358.080.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0885.7174.430.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.060.000.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0871.4374.450.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.0828.5733.92-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.0885.7163.780.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0850.0061.590.000.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0074.460.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.600.0850.0061.810.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0857.1452.630.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0714.2929.15-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0760.0043.970.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.25-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.600.0625.0030.93-0.30-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.690.0685.7172.660.500.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.690.0620.0036.00-0.42-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.03
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0566.6769.810.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0516.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
LehighPat0.600.0533.3367.01-0.200.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0540.0067.95-0.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0528.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0583.3363.610.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0514.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0512.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC1.190.0540.0057.49-0.240.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0537.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0059.480.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0557.1464.940.000.02
UtahP120.000.0575.0061.040.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0083.120.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.690.0316.6718.96-0.46-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.690.0375.0064.960.350.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0371.4355.750.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01