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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:257.0
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:82
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:3-17
Expected Conf Record:3-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24257.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH99-44W100%0.0
11-17Xavier (37.0)BEN82-83L0%0.0
11-18Davidson (93.0)A10N55-70L0%0.0
11-20Tulane (296.0)AmerN62-67W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH84-60W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH52-62L0%0.0
12-3Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH59-56W100%0.0
12-6Miami OH (302.0)MACH81-55W100%0.0
12-10Arizona (2.0)P12H60-79L0%0.0
12-17Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH64-67L0%0.0
12-21Illinois (62.0)B10N75-66L0%0.0
12-29Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH76-81L0%0.0
1-4LSU (193.0)SECH77-88L0%0.0
1-7Georgia (52.0)SECA71-66L0%0.0
1-10Auburn (113.0)SECH72-77L0%0.0
1-14Arkansas (28.0)SECA92-73L0%0.0
1-18Alabama (78.0)SECA68-56L0%0.0
1-21Mississippi (77.0)SECH71-75L0%0.0
1-25Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA89-74L0%0.0
1-28South Carolina (42.0)SECH53-63L0%0.0
2-2Florida (10.0)SECA93-54L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas (28.0)SECH83-78W100%0.0
2-8Texas A&M (92.0)SECA76-73L0%0.0
2-11Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH72-52W100%0.0
2-15Alabama (78.0)SECH54-57L0%0.0
2-18Tennessee (82.0)SECA90-70L0%0.0
2-21Kentucky (3.0)SECH62-72L0%0.0
2-25Mississippi (77.0)SECA80-77L0%0.0
2-28Texas A&M (92.0)SECH43-60L0%0.0
3-4Auburn (113.0)SECA89-78L0%0.0
3-8Auburn (113.0)SECN83-86W100%0.0
3-9Mississippi (77.0)SECN86-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC26.2326.2318.4218.42-16.56-16.56
MississippiSEC5.295.2956.6756.670.710.71
AuburnSEC5.275.2755.1755.170.540.54
ArkansasSEC3.803.8075.0075.001.901.90
AlabamaSEC3.783.7854.8454.840.370.37
Texas A&MSEC3.753.7548.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Mississippi St.SEC2.322.3248.3948.39-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC2.312.3157.5857.580.350.35
LSUSEC2.312.3130.0030.00-0.92-0.92
KentuckySEC2.292.2984.8584.851.591.59
GeorgiaSEC2.262.2654.8454.840.220.22
TennesseeSEC2.242.2446.6746.67-0.15-0.15
South CarolinaSEC2.242.2466.6766.670.750.75
FloridaSEC2.192.1974.1974.191.061.06
Northwestern St.Slnd1.641.6437.5037.50-0.41-0.41
ArizonaP121.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
LipscombASun1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.591.5972.4172.410.710.71
Alabama A&MSWAC1.561.567.147.14-1.34-1.34
DavidsonA101.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
IllinoisB101.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Miami OHMAC1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
TulaneAmer1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
Western KentuckyCUSA1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
XavierBE1.561.5660.6160.610.330.33
North FloridaASun0.250.2536.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
UABCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
ClemsonACC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
UCLAP120.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Arizona St.P120.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.110.1174.1974.190.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Texas TechB120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00