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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:159.3
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:21
Current SOS:82
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1145.50.02%
18-1256.00.09%
17-1367.50.28%
16-1483.11.02%
15-1596.13.00%
14-16111.06.61%
13-17126.611.71%
12-18141.516.48%
11-19158.418.97%
10-20174.317.88%
9-21190.812.66%
8-22208.76.91%
7-23224.53.20%
6-24241.70.85%
5-25255.50.28%
4-26265.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMKC (257.4)WACH61-69L0%0.0
11-16Valparaiso (169.8)HorzH56-41W100%0.0
11-19Oral Roberts (232.6)SumH78-64W100%0.0
11-24Arizona (17.9)P12N72-53L0%0.0
11-25Purdue (48.3)B10N61-82L0%0.0
12-2Southeast Missouri St. (259.6)OVCH0-080%10.0
12-5Oklahoma (39.3)B12A0-012%-14.3
12-11Elon (242.1)CAAH0-081%10.4
12-13Xavier (12.8)BEH0-020%-10.1
12-20Illinois (53.3)B10N0-021%-9.6
12-30Oklahoma St. (51.1)B12N0-024%-8.5
1-3Lipscomb (220.4)ASunH0-077%8.7
1-8LSU (94.1)SECH0-046%-1.3
1-10Auburn (179.6)SECA0-045%-1.6
1-13Kentucky (3.5)SECA0-02%-24.4
1-17Tennessee (153.1)SECH0-058%2.5
1-21Texas A&M (50.9)SECA0-014%-12.9
1-24Arkansas (23.2)SECH0-022%-9.2
1-29Kentucky (3.5)SECH0-08%-17.2
1-31Mississippi (101.9)SECH0-048%-0.6
2-4Alabama (69.6)SECA0-021%-9.8
2-7Texas A&M (50.9)SECH0-032%-5.7
2-10South Carolina (92.0)SECA0-021%-9.7
2-14Mississippi St. (194.9)SECH0-067%5.3
2-18Arkansas (23.2)SECA0-09%-16.4
2-21Vanderbilt (124.1)SECA0-029%-6.8
2-24Florida (40.2)SECH0-026%-7.8
2-28Georgia (76.4)SECA0-020%-10.0
3-3Auburn (179.6)SECH0-068%5.6
3-7Mississippi St. (194.9)SECA0-044%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC29.9226.1326.0930.79-14.31-10.04
ArkansasSEC0.003.96100.0079.420.002.33
AuburnSEC0.003.9560.0037.120.00-1.02
Texas A&MSEC0.003.9275.0067.630.001.38
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.92100.0045.660.00-0.34
KentuckySEC0.003.90100.0088.650.003.01
AlabamaSEC0.002.3980.0057.710.000.37
VanderbiltSEC0.002.37100.0053.180.000.15
MississippiSEC0.002.3775.0052.950.000.14
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3650.0050.540.000.03
LSUSEC0.002.3460.0056.050.000.28
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3460.0056.150.000.29
TennesseeSEC0.002.3450.0044.200.00-0.27
FloridaSEC0.002.3350.0064.590.000.68
Oklahoma St.B120.001.75100.0060.870.000.38
OklahomaB120.001.7575.0064.040.000.49
PurdueB1010.001.7580.0067.556.000.61
XavierBE0.001.75100.0077.740.000.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.7525.0045.10-0.00-0.17
IllinoisB100.001.72100.0064.640.000.50
Oral RobertsSum10.001.7050.0039.870.00-0.34
LipscombASun0.001.700.0046.58-0.00-0.12
ArizonaP1210.001.67100.0074.8810.000.83
ElonCAA0.001.6740.0040.25-0.00-0.33
UMKCWAC10.001.670.0040.23-10.00-0.33
ValparaisoHorz10.001.67100.0057.3410.000.24
Kansas St.B122.670.3150.0046.630.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz1.000.2620.0034.26-0.60-0.08
Iowa St.B120.000.2675.0062.480.000.06
BaylorB120.000.23100.0070.110.000.09
Oregon St.P121.000.2350.0042.760.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.20100.0080.270.000.12
KansasB120.000.2066.6759.280.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.2075.0045.520.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.180.0030.92-0.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.000.1840.0052.52-0.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.1775.0060.100.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1660.0050.770.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.150.0025.58-0.00-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6751.210.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1550.0036.120.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.14100.0061.120.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.14100.0069.720.000.06
TulsaAmer1.000.1460.0055.460.200.02
Youngstown St.Horz1.000.1450.0040.550.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1440.0053.46-0.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.140.0048.64-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.1480.0063.410.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1475.0051.040.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1460.0053.110.000.01
DaytonA100.000.1475.0071.150.000.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0025.37-0.00-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1233.3330.11-0.00-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1233.3367.86-0.000.04
IPFWSum0.000.1266.6762.950.000.03
IUPUISum0.830.1240.0030.81-0.17-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0060.970.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.11100.0057.480.000.02
MercerSC0.000.1133.3354.15-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0040.80-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1140.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1140.0046.02-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.11100.0066.690.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1183.3339.590.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1150.0024.520.00-0.06
OregonP120.000.1160.0063.060.000.03
MichiganB100.000.1175.0066.610.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0980.0076.610.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0980.0071.650.000.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0950.0049.570.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0920.0034.64-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0960.0058.400.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0950.0050.040.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3354.73-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0071.480.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0980.0046.930.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0950.0071.940.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.0916.6726.44-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0925.0052.85-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0940.0038.71-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0061.350.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0975.0046.370.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0064.150.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0975.0056.120.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.000.0925.0051.72-0.500.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0960.0055.640.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0057.990.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0077.100.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.080.0034.83-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.080.0046.27-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0866.6749.610.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.08100.0071.860.000.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0850.0073.640.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0875.0038.820.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0866.6751.600.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0875.0072.040.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0875.0053.300.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0850.0065.310.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.110.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0850.0055.290.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0074.750.000.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0840.0057.50-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.50-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0034.53-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6741.320.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0625.0047.86-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0049.940.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.12-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.810.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC1.250.0666.6758.830.420.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.520.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.23-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0047.310.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.31-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.860.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0068.710.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.42-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.390.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0019.74-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.68-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.260.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0640.0026.51-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.65-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0048.11-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0680.0066.690.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.95-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0058.520.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.140.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0055.090.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6726.420.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0065.430.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0055.210.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0043.690.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0079.800.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.03-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.060.0043.61-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.520.000.04
SamfordSC1.830.0633.3335.00-0.61-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.800.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0036.91-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.30-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.0566.6765.830.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0583.3348.410.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0566.6750.870.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.05100.0086.460.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.050.0062.99-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0525.0053.31-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0575.0064.180.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0580.0070.250.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0575.0064.980.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0525.0039.67-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0580.0079.380.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0079.150.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.050.0020.63-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0575.0067.420.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0550.0065.300.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0580.0070.970.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0560.0051.520.000.00
UtahP120.000.0575.0073.450.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.51-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.670.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.25-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.71-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.330.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.250.0316.6731.72-0.83-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0024.98-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.73-0.00-0.02
MaineAE1.250.030.0019.27-1.25-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3339.69-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.080.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.190.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB1.000.0366.6750.220.330.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0052.730.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0061.080.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.600.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0051.07-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3357.92-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0033.15-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.87-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.29-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0042.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0065.760.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0325.0052.61-0.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.63-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.500.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0027.510.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.01-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6753.550.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.64-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0051.010.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.41-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0041.79-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.900.000.02
BYUWCC0.830.0350.0067.000.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.830.0333.3338.74-0.28-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.830.030.0020.69-0.83-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.600.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.830.0325.0036.66-0.42-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0383.3369.220.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.520.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.830.0383.3384.530.560.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.60-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.830.0333.3367.52-0.280.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0028.760.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.490.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3329.54-0.00-0.01