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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:49.0
Current RPI:49
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:68
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1149.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH89-53W100%0.0
11-12Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH72-59W100%0.0
11-16Hawaii (160.0)BWN92-80W100%0.0
11-23Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH72-63W100%0.0
11-25IUPUI (322.0)SumH78-64W100%0.0
11-28Northwestern (123.0)B10N67-78W100%0.0
11-29Nevada (137.0)MWCN70-83W100%0.0
12-5West Virginia (88.0)B12H80-71W100%0.0
12-7UCLA (14.0)P12H80-71W100%0.0
12-15Western Michigan (66.0)MACH66-60W100%0.0
12-21Illinois (70.0)B10N64-65L0%0.0
12-28North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA64-68W100%0.0
1-4Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH69-59W100%0.0
1-8Georgia (74.0)SECH64-70L0%0.0
1-11Auburn (169.0)SECA68-70W100%0.0
1-16Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA78-75L0%0.0
1-18Alabama (124.0)SECH68-47W100%0.0
1-21LSU (83.0)SECA77-71L0%0.0
1-25South Carolina (140.0)SECH82-74W100%0.0
1-28Arkansas (77.0)SECA71-75W100%0.0
2-1Kentucky (17.0)SECH79-84L0%0.0
2-4Florida (1.0)SECA68-58L0%0.0
2-8Mississippi (94.0)SECA91-88L0%0.0
2-13Arkansas (77.0)SECH86-85W100%0.0
2-15Tennessee (42.0)SECH75-70W100%0.0
2-19Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH67-64W100%0.0
2-22Alabama (124.0)SECA80-73L0%0.0
2-25Georgia (74.0)SECA71-56L0%0.0
3-1Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH85-66W100%0.0
3-5Texas A&M (148.0)SECH57-56W100%0.0
3-8Tennessee (42.0)SECA72-45L0%0.0
3-13Texas A&M (148.0)SECN91-83W100%0.0
3-14Florida (1.0)SECN72-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC26.1226.1265.6565.658.188.18
TennesseeSEC3.713.7163.3363.330.990.99
FloridaSEC3.693.6993.7593.753.233.23
ArkansasSEC3.653.6570.0070.001.461.46
GeorgiaSEC3.643.6456.6756.670.490.49
AlabamaSEC3.643.6437.9337.93-0.88-0.88
Texas A&MSEC3.623.6256.6756.670.480.48
VanderbiltSEC3.623.6248.2848.28-0.12-0.12
LSUSEC2.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
South CarolinaSEC2.272.2742.4242.42-0.34-0.34
KentuckySEC2.242.2469.7069.700.880.88
Mississippi St.SEC2.232.2343.7543.75-0.28-0.28
MississippiSEC2.202.2056.2556.250.270.27
AuburnSEC2.192.1948.2848.28-0.08-0.08
NorthwesternB101.661.6643.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC1.611.6163.6463.640.440.44
UCLAP121.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.611.6132.0032.00-0.58-0.58
HawaiiBW1.591.5964.2964.290.450.45
Western MichiganMAC1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
IllinoisB101.561.5656.2556.250.200.20
IUPUISum1.561.5610.7110.71-1.23-1.23
NevadaMWC1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC1.521.5241.9441.94-0.24-0.24
West VirginiaB121.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
XavierBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
Boise St.MWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
DukeACC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Kansas St.B120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
TexasB120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
IowaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
OregonP120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0719.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
PittsburghACC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
RichmondA100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
SyracuseACC0.040.0484.3884.380.030.03
UtahP120.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00