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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:218.0
Current RPI:218
Expected SOS:21
Current SOS:21
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:29



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23218.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMKC (295.0)WACH61-69L0%0.0
11-16Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH56-41W100%0.0
11-19Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH78-64W100%0.0
11-24Arizona (5.0)P12N72-53L0%0.0
11-25Purdue (55.0)B10N61-82L0%0.0
12-2Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH65-61W100%0.0
12-5Oklahoma (18.0)B12A82-63L0%0.0
12-11Elon (259.0)CAAH78-73W100%0.0
12-13Xavier (30.0)BEH58-74L0%0.0
12-20Illinois (73.0)B10N59-62L0%0.0
12-30Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12N72-74L0%0.0
1-3Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH72-60W100%0.0
1-8LSU (57.0)SECH74-67W100%0.0
1-10Auburn (129.0)SECA85-79L0%0.0
1-13Kentucky (1.0)SECA86-37L0%0.0
1-17Tennessee (96.0)SECH51-59L0%0.0
1-21Texas A&M (67.0)SECA62-50L0%0.0
1-24Arkansas (19.0)SECH60-61L0%0.0
1-29Kentucky (1.0)SECH53-69L0%0.0
1-31Mississippi (60.0)SECH47-67L0%0.0
2-4Alabama (85.0)SECA62-49L0%0.0
2-7Texas A&M (67.0)SECH61-83L0%0.0
2-10South Carolina (91.0)SECA65-60L0%0.0
2-14Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH74-77L0%0.0
2-18Arkansas (19.0)SECA84-69L0%0.0
2-21Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA76-53L0%0.0
2-24Florida (72.0)SECH64-52W100%0.0
2-28Georgia (38.0)SECA68-44L0%0.0
3-3Auburn (129.0)SECH63-61W100%0.0
3-7Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA52-43L0%0.0
3-11South Carolina (91.0)SECN63-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC26.0826.0817.7817.78-16.81-16.81
AuburnSEC3.983.9840.6240.62-0.75-0.75
ArkansasSEC3.933.9375.0075.001.971.97
South CarolinaSEC3.903.9046.6746.67-0.26-0.26
KentuckySEC3.903.90100.00100.003.903.90
Mississippi St.SEC3.823.8234.4834.48-1.19-1.19
Texas A&MSEC3.823.8262.0762.070.920.92
GeorgiaSEC2.362.3664.5264.520.680.68
TennesseeSEC2.342.3448.3948.39-0.08-0.08
AlabamaSEC2.332.3353.3353.330.160.16
MississippiSEC2.322.3261.2961.290.520.52
FloridaSEC2.312.3150.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC2.292.2956.6756.670.310.31
LSUSEC2.282.2870.9770.970.960.96
Oklahoma St.B121.741.7455.1755.170.180.18
OklahomaB121.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
PurdueB101.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
XavierBE1.691.6960.6160.610.360.36
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.691.6940.7440.74-0.31-0.31
IllinoisB101.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
LipscombASun1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
Oral RobertsSum1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
ArizonaP121.611.6190.9190.911.321.32
ElonCAA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
UMKCWAC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6186.2186.211.171.17
Kansas St.B120.280.2846.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.280.2875.7675.760.140.14
BaylorB120.260.2671.8871.880.110.11
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
KansasB120.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
Oregon St.P120.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
TCUB120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
TexasB120.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Texas TechB120.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1721.4321.43-0.09-0.09
ColoradoP120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Arizona St.P120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
OregonP120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MercerSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
GeorgetownBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00