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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Missouri

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:222.4
Current RPI:207
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:72
Current Record:8-16
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:1-10
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17154.20.04%
13-18165.80.25%
12-19180.92.43%
11-20197.010.59%
10-21212.227.71%
9-22228.137.97%
8-23243.821.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wofford (187.5)SCH83-74W100%0.0
11-15Maryland Eastern Shore (276.1)MEACH73-55W100%0.0
11-17Xavier (9.6)BEA78-66L0%0.0
11-23Kansas St. (70.5)B12N66-42L0%0.0
11-24Northwestern (120.4)B10N67-62L0%0.0
12-1Arkansas St. (239.2)SBH88-78W100%0.0
12-4Northern Illinois (140.6)MACH78-71W100%0.0
12-9Nebraska Omaha (127.1)SumH85-78W100%0.0
12-13Arizona (26.8)P12A88-52L0%0.0
12-19North Carolina St. (118.3)ACCH59-73L0%0.0
12-23Illinois (157.5)B10N63-68L0%0.0
12-29Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.7)SWACH78-25W100%0.0
1-2Savannah St. (328.2)MEACH81-50W100%0.0
1-6Georgia (85.4)SECA77-59L0%0.0
1-9Auburn (166.4)SECH76-61W100%0.0
1-12Arkansas (103.1)SECH61-94L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina (40.7)SECA81-72L0%0.0
1-20Georgia (85.4)SECH57-60L0%0.0
1-23Texas A&M (27.5)SECA66-53L0%0.0
1-27Kentucky (16.8)SECA88-54L0%0.0
1-30Mississippi St. (161.1)SECH62-76L0%0.0
2-3Mississippi (113.4)SECH73-76L0%0.0
2-6Alabama (70.1)SECA80-71L0%0.0
2-10Vanderbilt (53.5)SECA86-71L0%0.0
2-13Tennessee (111.3)SECH0-037%-3.6
2-16South Carolina (40.7)SECH0-025%-7.2
2-20Arkansas (103.1)SECA0-012%-12.5
2-23Mississippi (113.4)SECA0-020%-9.0
2-27Texas A&M (27.5)SECH0-013%-12.1
3-1LSU (86.5)SECA0-014%-11.8
3-5Florida (23.6)SECH0-016%-10.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Missouri's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Missouri.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MissouriSEC26.1726.1024.4922.54-13.35-14.33
GeorgiaSEC4.473.8355.0051.900.450.15
MississippiSEC2.493.8160.8756.790.540.52
Texas A&MSEC2.493.8173.9174.081.191.83
South CarolinaSEC2.493.7886.3679.871.812.26
ArkansasSEC2.443.7847.8350.19-0.110.01
Mississippi St.SEC2.392.3040.9141.82-0.43-0.38
AuburnSEC2.442.2840.9136.67-0.44-0.61
LSUSEC0.542.2762.5058.150.130.37
FloridaSEC0.452.2566.6765.740.150.71
AlabamaSEC2.482.2559.0954.450.450.20
VanderbiltSEC2.442.2556.5258.630.320.39
TennesseeSEC0.492.2550.0047.640.00-0.11
KentuckySEC2.442.1973.9171.721.170.95
Kansas St.B122.311.8056.5254.840.300.17
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.221.7030.4334.94-0.87-0.51
Savannah St.MEAC2.181.6740.0039.21-0.44-0.36
WoffordSC2.171.6745.4547.87-0.20-0.07
XavierBE2.171.6786.9681.231.611.04
Arkansas St.SB2.131.6445.0040.63-0.21-0.31
IllinoisB102.081.6443.4842.25-0.27-0.25
North Carolina St.ACC2.081.6447.8347.35-0.09-0.09
NorthwesternB102.081.6462.5060.820.520.35
ArizonaP122.081.6178.2677.611.180.89
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.081.6125.0026.50-1.04-0.76
Nebraska OmahaSum2.081.6160.8760.640.450.34
Northern IllinoisMAC2.081.6163.1659.850.550.32
BaylorB120.370.2473.9168.480.180.09
ClemsonACC0.230.1958.3358.370.040.03
Georgia TechACC0.230.1954.1751.980.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.170.1841.6739.91-0.03-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1740.0038.97-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.180.1670.8368.100.080.06
Ohio St.B100.270.1660.0055.540.050.02
SouthernSWAC0.170.1661.9065.310.040.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1617.6526.58-0.11-0.07
Texas TechB120.170.1660.8755.300.040.02
Arizona St.P120.170.1654.1751.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.170.1670.8368.000.070.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.1452.1754.140.000.01
South DakotaSum0.230.1441.6741.24-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1443.4850.66-0.020.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.1439.1341.11-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.230.1486.9686.650.170.10
South FloridaAmer0.180.1420.0019.76-0.11-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1428.5731.30-0.06-0.05
MercerSC0.130.1369.5769.040.050.05
DePaulBE0.170.1333.3334.01-0.06-0.04
St. John'sBE0.180.1325.0023.45-0.09-0.07
MinnesotaB100.170.1325.0027.23-0.09-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.170.1383.3378.400.120.07
DaytonA100.180.1386.9682.150.130.08
Michigan St.B100.170.1380.0081.580.100.08
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1345.8342.32-0.01-0.02
TexasB120.130.1366.6762.210.040.03
NebraskaB100.130.1352.0050.780.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1225.0033.20-0.07-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1229.1733.11-0.06-0.04
AkronMAC0.100.1182.6181.130.060.07
OregonP120.190.1182.6179.250.120.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1163.6462.150.040.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1150.0054.190.000.01
WinthropBSth0.180.1165.0063.440.060.03
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1166.6765.220.060.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.1157.8956.090.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.140.1133.3334.19-0.05-0.03
TroySB0.140.1123.8126.72-0.07-0.05
MarylandB100.130.1187.5083.690.100.07
MemphisAmer0.090.1158.3359.360.010.02
ProvidenceBE0.130.1172.0069.150.060.04
Florida St.ACC0.130.1069.5764.900.050.03
MichiganB100.130.1070.8366.720.050.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.1078.2676.880.050.06
KansasB120.130.1082.6179.190.080.06
North FloridaASun0.090.1065.2267.120.030.04
PurdueB100.090.1080.0077.960.050.06
StanfordP120.090.1050.0046.530.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0940.0043.42-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.099.0912.25-0.04-0.07
HowardMEAC0.040.0936.3638.93-0.01-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0919.0525.90-0.06-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0931.8232.69-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.150.0863.6461.480.040.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0814.2920.65-0.10-0.05
IUPUISum0.090.0840.0039.76-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.0856.5257.020.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0857.8961.760.010.02
Chicago St.WAC0.140.084.357.72-0.13-0.07
ColoradoP120.090.0869.5765.310.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0859.0959.370.010.02
High PointBSth0.140.0855.0057.460.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0827.2731.06-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0856.0052.840.010.00
ButlerBE0.040.0870.8368.990.020.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0864.0057.920.020.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0882.6177.520.060.04
Notre DameACC0.090.0870.8367.820.040.03
USCP120.090.0878.2673.050.050.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.0011.96-0.07-0.06
DukeACC0.130.0875.0071.800.070.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0847.6252.03-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0845.4547.54-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0879.1774.060.050.04
OklahomaB120.090.0886.9682.580.060.05
Penn St.B100.040.0850.0046.760.00-0.01
RutgersB100.040.0821.7420.34-0.02-0.05
SyracuseACC0.040.0866.6762.560.010.02
TCUB120.000.0845.8339.35-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.090.0856.5253.270.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0865.2266.190.010.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.060.050.04
WisconsinB100.090.0862.5056.960.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0845.4554.16-0.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0814.2924.86-0.06-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.130.0852.0048.860.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.0022.26-0.05-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0625.0025.09-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0660.8757.160.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.100.0660.8762.080.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0631.8236.14-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.310.020.01
DenverSum0.090.0654.1751.780.010.00
IPFWSum0.040.0670.8368.590.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0673.9174.700.040.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.16-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0652.0050.230.000.00
UtahP120.050.0670.8368.500.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.0634.7833.05-0.03-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.065.007.22-0.09-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0628.5727.00-0.04-0.03
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.73-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.18-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.910.040.04
FurmanSC0.050.0654.1754.080.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.090.0645.4549.69-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0668.0067.990.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0628.0030.70-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0641.6742.61-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0636.8437.57-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.05-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.310.020.02
VMISC0.090.0615.0016.73-0.06-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0560.0060.100.020.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0535.0038.52-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0547.8350.01-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.040.0529.1731.18-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0540.0042.85-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0554.1754.110.010.00
PittsburghACC0.090.0572.7367.630.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0583.3381.320.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0517.3920.66-0.06-0.03
CreightonBE0.040.0564.0062.040.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0513.6418.18-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0565.2264.230.010.02
LipscombASun0.050.0525.0029.28-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0566.6764.730.020.02
VillanovaBE0.040.0587.5086.870.030.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0521.7423.40-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0582.6179.390.060.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0572.0071.540.040.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0584.2181.660.060.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0560.8760.530.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0530.0034.55-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0565.2262.830.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0523.8126.56-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0575.0076.190.020.03
George MasonA100.040.0533.3333.70-0.01-0.02
IowaB100.090.0582.6180.520.060.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0571.4368.750.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0579.1776.070.050.03
MassachusettsA100.040.0540.9139.26-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0513.6415.80-0.03-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0565.2264.370.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0576.1972.310.020.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0565.2259.750.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0522.7323.25-0.02-0.03
WashingtonP120.090.0562.5060.110.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.0536.3631.98-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.040.0554.1754.290.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0530.4331.21-0.03-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0536.8442.89-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0528.5733.35-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0540.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0515.0018.11-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.059.0917.14-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.15-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.970.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.130.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.040.0340.9143.75-0.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0343.4842.47-0.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0356.5262.820.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.040.0324.0026.33-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.070.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.17-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.690.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0333.3335.05-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.92-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0345.4546.21-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.020.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0376.0076.320.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.73-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.490.010.00
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.960.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0363.6460.930.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0354.5552.540.000.00
DetroitHorz0.040.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.18-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0363.6461.640.010.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0071.920.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0370.8367.980.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0354.1750.990.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0345.4551.39-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0051.190.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.03-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0364.0064.480.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0327.7834.45-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0354.1755.260.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.040.0347.3749.90-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0345.8346.63-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0310.0013.14-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.040.0361.9056.450.010.00
PacificWCC0.040.0325.0028.89-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0356.5255.730.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0334.7837.06-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.42-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.040.0381.8282.620.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0368.1865.160.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0334.7835.64-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.090.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0352.0054.870.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0383.3378.470.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0371.4369.840.020.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.680.020.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0347.6245.00-0.00-0.00