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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:331.0
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:350
Current Record:6-13
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:349



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-14287.80.27%
11-15302.02.53%
10-16315.210.78%
9-17326.327.75%
8-18335.034.75%
7-19340.819.68%
6-20344.54.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Fresno St. (122.6)MWCA80-72L0%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (348.0)MEACA66-77W100%0.0
11-25Rice (292.4)CUSAA92-84L0%0.0
11-29UC Riverside (263.6)BWH69-74L0%0.0
12-2UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACH83-60W100%0.0
12-5Idaho St. (272.2)BSkyH82-70W100%0.0
12-12Liberty (262.0)BSthA58-73W100%0.0
12-13Virginia Tech (127.6)ACCA88-53L0%0.0
1-2Nicholls St. (330.7)SlndA67-79W100%0.0
1-4New Orleans (312.0)SlndH64-68L0%0.0
1-9Central Arkansas (326.6)SlndA93-76L0%0.0
1-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (117.2)SlndH82-91L0%0.0
1-16Northwestern St. (332.5)SlndH86-82W100%0.0
1-18Southeastern Louisiana (332.7)SlndA98-70L0%0.0
1-23Houston Baptist (201.8)SlndH79-92L0%0.0
1-25Stephen F. Austin (95.6)SlndA86-52L0%0.0
1-30Abilene Christian (327.6)SlndA80-71L0%0.0
2-1Sam Houston St. (188.6)SlndH66-69L0%0.0
2-6Incarnate Word (172.1)SlndH71-74L0%0.0
2-8Abilene Christian (327.6)SlndH0-067%4.7
2-15Houston Baptist (201.8)SlndA0-021%-8.9
2-20McNeese St. (328.4)SlndA0-038%-3.3
2-22Stephen F. Austin (95.6)SlndH0-011%-13.1
2-27Incarnate Word (172.1)SlndA0-016%-10.9
2-29McNeese St. (328.4)SlndH0-062%3.3
3-3Sam Houston St. (188.6)SlndA0-016%-10.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.2726.3632.2632.70-9.32-9.12
Houston BaptistSlnd3.314.8250.0047.070.00-0.28
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.264.7527.7829.02-1.45-1.99
Incarnate WordSlnd3.184.7453.3352.970.210.28
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.114.7268.7573.991.172.26
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.284.7142.1145.99-0.52-0.38
McNeese St.Slnd0.714.6017.6527.43-0.46-2.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.212.9473.6870.451.521.20
Nicholls St.Slnd3.212.8415.0018.56-2.25-1.79
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.142.8410.5324.67-2.48-1.44
Central ArkansasSlnd3.202.8316.6725.14-2.14-1.41
Northwestern St.Slnd3.182.8320.0027.60-1.91-1.27
New OrleansSlnd3.192.7923.5331.88-1.69-1.01
RiceCUSA2.902.1425.0027.21-1.45-0.97
UC RiversideBW2.902.1343.4839.64-0.38-0.44
Fresno St.MWC2.761.9960.0058.220.550.33
Delaware St.MEAC2.751.9910.0014.00-2.20-1.43
Idaho St.BSky2.691.9647.3747.84-0.14-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.701.9615.0016.08-1.89-1.33
LibertyBSth2.631.9236.3637.85-0.72-0.47
Virginia TechACC2.631.9252.1747.580.11-0.09
TCUB120.270.2143.4837.22-0.03-0.05
OklahomaB120.150.1986.3682.100.110.12
CaliforniaP120.210.1865.2262.880.060.05
North TexasCUSA0.250.1733.3332.99-0.08-0.06
Texas St.SB0.130.1538.8938.51-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1547.8348.91-0.01-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1542.1145.73-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.210.1533.3332.34-0.07-0.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1554.1751.660.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1565.2268.610.040.05
UTEPCUSA0.190.1452.1751.940.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1466.6767.690.060.05
UABCUSA0.190.1482.6179.420.130.08
Utah St.MWC0.130.1445.0046.77-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1421.0523.58-0.08-0.07
NebraskaB100.200.1454.1751.810.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.120.1472.7371.620.050.06
New MexicoMWC0.190.1360.8763.000.040.03
Cal PolyBW0.180.1330.0034.56-0.07-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.240.1354.5550.110.020.00
BaylorB120.160.1172.7366.500.070.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.1157.8961.750.010.03
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1126.0929.20-0.06-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1133.3334.94-0.06-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1133.3335.48-0.04-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1182.6181.140.120.07
Portland St.BSky0.130.1131.5837.72-0.05-0.03
PortlandWCC0.140.1140.0038.50-0.03-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1031.8236.14-0.05-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.1052.3850.410.000.00
MichiganB100.130.1069.5766.220.050.03
SMUAmer0.130.1090.9186.130.110.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1045.4547.57-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.200.1013.6413.62-0.14-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1028.5726.96-0.08-0.05
RadfordBSth0.110.1050.0051.270.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.1057.1459.470.010.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.1056.5262.780.010.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1072.7372.030.060.04
Miami FLACC0.060.1081.8276.740.040.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1028.5728.54-0.08-0.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1050.0055.200.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.130.1069.5764.890.050.03
HawaiiBW0.120.1084.2181.670.080.06
PittsburghACC0.120.1076.1968.220.060.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0051.170.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0879.1774.020.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0865.2260.270.000.02
PurdueB100.080.0879.1776.550.050.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0826.0923.72-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.000.0856.5253.240.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.074.357.73-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0754.1755.080.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0747.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0745.4554.11-0.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0728.5732.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.140.0779.1778.330.080.04
MassachusettsA100.140.0740.9139.36-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0763.6462.140.040.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0721.7423.66-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.1750.930.010.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0755.0053.180.010.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0768.0067.970.020.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0740.0042.11-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.2776.860.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0772.0070.510.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0759.0953.120.010.00
HoustonAmer0.130.0769.5766.510.050.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.0790.4886.880.110.05
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0737.5040.52-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0723.8126.56-0.06-0.03
FurmanSC0.120.0752.1753.310.010.00
High PointBSth0.110.0755.0057.480.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0722.7324.97-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.130.0747.3749.97-0.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0710.0013.13-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0725.0026.87-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0715.0015.35-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0765.2266.160.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.130.0765.0069.270.040.03
WinthropBSth0.110.0765.0063.440.030.02
NorthwesternB100.130.0766.6763.420.040.02
HowardMEAC0.130.0738.1040.73-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0778.2678.050.070.04
UtahP120.130.0769.5767.480.050.02
DenverSum0.120.0754.1751.800.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0745.4538.47-0.01-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0734.7840.92-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0715.0022.36-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0771.4368.710.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0730.4335.11-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0755.0054.530.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.130.0725.0022.76-0.06-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0750.0053.300.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0731.5831.98-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0743.4842.50-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.0769.5765.850.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.0720.0026.74-0.07-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0620.8323.63-0.07-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.120.0652.1751.590.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0629.1733.15-0.05-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.0635.0032.27-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0645.4551.35-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.110.0640.0036.77-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0642.8650.41-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.050.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0452.1755.930.000.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0440.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0442.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0465.2259.020.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0463.6459.240.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0452.3847.040.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0412.5012.85-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0463.6456.430.020.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0465.2267.140.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0413.6415.80-0.05-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0447.8350.15-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0328.5729.65-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0360.0060.090.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0352.3854.010.000.00
ElonCAA0.070.0352.1750.420.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0354.5554.930.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0357.8962.290.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0340.9143.71-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0372.2274.710.030.02
RutgersB100.070.0321.7420.35-0.04-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.070.0369.5762.630.030.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0365.2261.450.020.01
VCUA100.060.0373.9173.900.030.02
Washington St.P120.070.0336.3632.00-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.840.020.01
WisconsinB100.070.0360.8755.840.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0363.6462.530.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0370.8370.840.030.01
ColoradoP120.060.0369.5765.330.020.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0321.7423.32-0.04-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0375.0076.240.030.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.30-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.19-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0347.6252.67-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.170.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0360.8760.770.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.420.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0340.9149.27-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.21-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.060.0382.6179.210.040.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0361.9056.420.010.00
PacificWCC0.060.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0356.5257.280.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0335.0035.98-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0365.0066.790.020.01
TempleAmer0.060.0363.6459.840.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0366.6770.540.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.30-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.430.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0035.77-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.50-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.040.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.04-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.060.030.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.36-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.890.040.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
VMISC0.050.0315.7917.42-0.04-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.550.040.02