Lamar

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	102.9
Current RPI:	102
Expected SOS:	220
Current SOS:	172
Current Record:	13-8
Expected Record:	19-10
Current Conf Record:	6-3
Expected Conf Record:	12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	30.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-2
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	49
Expected OOC SOS:	43

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-8	84.4	14.94%
20-9	96.0	39.07%
19-10	109.0	30.73%
18-11	123.1	12.03%
17-12	137.5	2.89%
16-13	154.9	0.32%
15-14	175.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Arkansas St. (228.9)	SB	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Louisville (25.3)	BE	A	68-48	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	A	85-78	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	H	72-54	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	A	69-80	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Tennessee Tech (136.1)	OVC	A	65-85	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	77-72	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	80-63	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	H	60-49	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	81-87	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	70-50	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Kentucky (4.3)	SEC	A	86-64	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	A	58-74	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	H	103-67	W	100%	0.0
1-11	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	A	57-54	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	H	82-91	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	A	78-92	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	A	74-62	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Nicholls St. (314.5)	Slnd	H	80-56	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	A	59-83	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	H	80-66	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	0-0		85%	11.6
2-11	Nicholls St. (314.5)	Slnd	A	0-0		95%	17.7
2-15	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	H	0-0		97%	20.9
2-18	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	0-0		38%	-3.4
2-22	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		81%	9.7
2-25	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	A	0-0		81%	9.5
2-29	Texas St. (316.7)	Slnd	A	0-0		82%	10.0
3-3	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	H	0-0		90%	14.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lamar	Slnd	26.32	26.22	69.23	73.31	10.12	12.22
Central Arkansas	Slnd	5.23	4.21	31.25	32.36	-1.96	-1.48
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.93	4.19	26.32	25.45	-1.39	-2.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.80	4.18	37.50	41.59	-0.70	-0.70
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.81	4.18	29.41	31.93	-1.16	-1.51
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.95	4.16	52.63	54.26	0.16	0.35
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.86	2.43	75.00	75.08	1.43	1.22
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.81	2.39	19.05	21.86	-1.74	-1.35
Texas St.	Slnd	0.41	2.39	22.22	28.00	-0.23	-1.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.61	2.36	60.00	62.92	0.52	0.61
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.42	2.36	26.32	30.19	-0.20	-0.93
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.37	2.36	47.06	52.03	-0.02	0.10
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.72	1.97	4.55	10.00	-2.47	-1.58
Arkansas St.	SB	2.72	1.94	39.13	39.65	-0.59	-0.40
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.56	1.91	56.52	56.71	0.33	0.26
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.60	1.87	20.00	25.56	-1.56	-0.92
Louisville	BE	2.59	1.84	77.27	71.74	1.41	0.80
Ohio	MAC	2.53	1.81	80.95	76.41	1.57	0.96
Texas Christian	MWC	2.49	1.79	55.00	47.74	0.25	-0.08
Rice	CUSA	2.49	1.78	50.00	48.18	0.00	-0.06
Ohio St.	B10	2.44	1.76	86.36	84.97	1.77	1.23
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.43	1.75	63.64	61.97	0.66	0.42
Kentucky	SEC	2.43	1.75	95.65	92.32	2.22	1.48
Charlotte	A10	2.38	1.72	52.38	51.21	0.11	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.00	1.72	76.00	72.85	0.00	0.79
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.39	0.37	8.70	8.99	-0.33	-0.31
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.35	0.32	47.62	47.18	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.25	0.29	42.86	43.45	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.27	0.27	43.48	44.25	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.28	0.25	25.00	28.52	-0.14	-0.11
Houston	CUSA	0.17	0.22	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.18	0.19	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.17	0.19	60.87	61.37	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.24	0.19	60.87	59.05	0.05	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.21	0.18	34.78	38.42	-0.07	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.21	0.18	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.18	0.16	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.18	0.16	31.82	25.98	-0.06	-0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.23	0.16	61.90	58.59	0.05	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.18	0.16	33.33	34.47	-0.06	-0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.15	34.78	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.20	0.15	100.00	94.55	0.20	0.13
South Carolina	SEC	0.22	0.15	40.91	39.56	-0.04	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.21	0.15	8.70	11.67	-0.18	-0.11
Denver	SB	0.20	0.15	70.83	72.23	0.08	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.21	0.15	71.43	69.05	0.09	0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.20	0.13	30.00	33.20	-0.08	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.19	0.13	82.61	81.44	0.12	0.08
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.13	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.17	0.12	54.55	56.09	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.11	0.12	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.12	69.57	65.15	0.07	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.07	0.12	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.17	0.12	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.16	0.12	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.12	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.16	0.12	33.33	35.26	-0.05	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.12	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.05	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.12	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.10	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.10	85.71	82.18	0.05	0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.09	54.17	49.44	0.02	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.09	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.09	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.09	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.09	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.09	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.16	0.09	26.32	29.71	-0.07	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.09	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.16	0.09	69.57	71.51	0.06	0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.09	83.33	84.76	0.10	0.06
Troy	SB	0.11	0.09	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.09	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.09	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.16	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.09	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.09	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.09	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.09	41.67	40.61	-0.03	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.16	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.09	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.08	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.08	75.00	75.78	0.08	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.08	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.03
California	P12	0.07	0.07	75.00	74.61	0.04	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.07	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.57	68.90	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.07	69.57	68.29	0.05	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.11	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Temple	A10	0.11	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.06	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.00	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.00	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.00	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.00	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.00	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.00	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.00	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.00	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.00	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.00	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.00	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.00	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.00	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.00	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.00	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.00	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Albany	AE	0.00	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.00	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.00	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.00	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.00	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.00	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.00	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.00	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.00	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.00	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.00	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.02