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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:227.8
Current RPI:259
Expected SOS:329
Current SOS:345
Current Record:8-8
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8163.80.19%
18-9181.32.21%
17-10196.49.67%
16-11211.020.87%
15-12225.527.44%
14-13239.521.59%
13-14254.112.24%
12-15268.94.50%
11-16284.11.04%
10-17299.00.23%
9-18304.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tulsa (129.7)AmerA67-74W100%0.0
11-14Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBH66-60W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Bakersfield (216.9)WACH73-85L0%0.0
11-27UTEP (283.2)CUSAA52-66W100%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBA67-69W100%0.0
12-17Southern Illinois (139.1)MVCA71-61L0%0.0
12-19Duquesne (213.1)A10A65-64L0%0.0
12-22UC Davis (106.3)BWN77-68L0%0.0
12-23North Carolina A&T (240.7)MEACN70-74L0%0.0
12-28Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH86-68W100%0.0
12-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.4)SlndA72-77W100%0.0
1-3New Orleans (219.1)SlndA72-62L0%0.0
1-6Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH91-100L0%0.0
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (204.8)SlndH58-63L0%0.0
1-17Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndA69-90W100%0.0
1-20Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndH84-77W100%0.0
1-24Nicholls St. (199.3)SlndH0-066%4.7
1-27McNeese St. (297.6)SlndH0-083%10.7
1-31Abilene Christian (228.2)SlndA0-048%-0.5
2-3Stephen F. Austin (122.6)SlndH0-043%-2.0
2-7Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndA0-079%8.9
2-10Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndA0-039%-3.1
2-14Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndH0-088%13.0
2-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.4)SlndH0-082%10.2
2-21Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndA0-065%4.3
2-24Stephen F. Austin (122.6)SlndA0-022%-8.4
3-3McNeese St. (297.6)SlndA0-065%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.6426.4252.3857.061.273.73
Houston BaptistSlnd3.414.606.2519.51-2.99-2.80
Incarnate WordSlnd3.494.578.3321.36-2.90-2.62
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.404.558.3324.52-2.83-2.32
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.544.5446.6750.59-0.240.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.314.5280.0079.780.192.69
McNeese St.Slnd0.404.4728.5731.74-0.17-1.63
Coastal CarolinaSB6.253.7031.2541.06-2.34-0.66
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.462.8052.9452.650.030.15
New OrleansSlnd3.542.7833.3343.02-1.18-0.39
Central ArkansasSlnd3.732.7642.1147.52-0.59-0.14
Nicholls St.Slnd0.412.7350.0052.170.000.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.312.737.1414.55-0.27-1.93
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.302.7050.0053.370.000.18
UTEPCUSA3.251.9335.2935.33-0.95-0.57
DuquesneA103.291.9168.4256.711.210.26
Southern IllinoisMVC3.291.9150.0048.540.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.291.9152.9455.170.190.20
TulsaAmer3.201.8857.8955.130.510.19
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.121.8525.0030.54-1.56-0.72
UC DavisBW3.121.8556.2561.060.390.41
Texas St.SB0.390.3157.8950.210.060.00
UTSACUSA0.550.3041.1839.65-0.10-0.06
Little RockSB0.250.2622.2225.26-0.14-0.13
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.330.2545.0045.02-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.360.2483.3381.350.240.15
HoustonAmer0.300.2278.9572.990.170.10
Louisiana MonroeSB0.270.2026.6729.04-0.12-0.09
IdahoBSky0.280.1764.7166.850.080.06
BaylorB120.300.1761.1156.090.070.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.1766.6766.010.090.06
RiceCUSA0.090.1711.1117.69-0.07-0.11
South AlabamaSB0.270.1750.0045.900.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1727.7831.120.00-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.090.1633.3337.22-0.03-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1527.7829.11-0.05-0.06
UMKCWAC0.210.1521.0524.71-0.12-0.08
MississippiSEC0.220.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1443.7554.090.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.1444.4446.64-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.360.1466.6765.360.120.04
LSUSEC0.100.1461.1153.160.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.1483.3384.230.180.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.270.1366.6765.620.090.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.1352.6355.290.000.01
TroySB0.170.1335.2942.76-0.05-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1360.0062.030.030.03
TulaneAmer0.170.1363.1657.900.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.240.1247.3745.87-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1157.8954.500.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1062.5058.700.050.02
PittsburghACC0.080.1040.0030.87-0.02-0.04
SMUAmer0.100.1070.0070.630.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.1010.0019.620.00-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.1044.4450.31-0.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.170.1020.0041.76-0.10-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.260.1061.1151.900.060.00
Virginia TechACC0.180.1068.4257.780.070.02
MemphisAmer0.250.1065.0058.490.080.02
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1068.4254.090.060.01
HowardMEAC0.090.1010.5327.31-0.07-0.04
ValparaisoMVC0.170.0950.0051.360.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.250.0950.0048.740.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.090.009.15-0.16-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.0915.7920.92-0.11-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.160.0942.1132.48-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.160.0947.3746.91-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.120.0873.6871.550.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.0880.9583.260.070.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.0766.6755.930.040.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0758.8262.830.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.070.003.12-0.09-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0770.0071.230.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0752.9459.360.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0717.6517.230.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0772.2258.940.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6763.200.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0733.3332.96-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.100.0761.1164.130.020.02
UCLAP120.170.0765.0062.040.050.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0729.4127.74-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0768.4270.810.000.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0771.4374.650.040.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0723.5328.210.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0756.2556.810.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0717.6519.330.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.090.0721.0525.98-0.05-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.170.0766.6765.530.060.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0768.7563.960.030.02
IonaMAAC0.170.0763.1666.880.050.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0785.0083.180.060.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.0758.8257.140.030.01
PacificWCC0.180.0745.0044.46-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0770.0060.460.040.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0744.4448.91-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0730.0039.93-0.04-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0717.6523.89-0.06-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0770.5969.610.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0736.8435.55-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.170.0773.6877.120.080.04
Wake ForestACC0.170.0744.4441.15-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.170.0768.7563.620.070.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0740.0043.34-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.180.0661.1160.790.040.01
Washington St.P120.180.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.170.0685.7182.070.120.04
UCFAmer0.090.0668.4260.880.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0641.1838.46-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.060.0010.65-0.17-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0627.7831.67-0.03-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.870.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0644.4446.100.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0677.7871.650.050.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0670.0068.420.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.160.0623.5328.70-0.08-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0647.0652.51-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.0026.140.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.080.0652.6351.730.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0678.9577.360.050.03
DaytonA100.080.0647.3750.95-0.000.00
FordhamA100.080.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6768.700.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0445.0041.340.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0477.7867.900.000.01
TexasB120.000.0463.1657.620.000.01
UtahP120.000.0461.1158.950.000.01
ArizonaP120.090.0480.0078.980.060.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0468.4264.200.030.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0447.3743.04-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0466.6763.420.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0411.1115.30-0.07-0.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0461.9065.160.020.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0447.3742.18-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0337.5031.760.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0343.7545.340.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0358.8258.360.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0311.1117.960.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.0394.7490.310.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0363.1661.050.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0316.6724.46-0.06-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0327.7832.66-0.04-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0370.0061.440.040.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.440.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.090.0378.9576.970.050.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0352.3848.520.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0384.2173.210.060.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.039.5217.94-0.07-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0335.2935.57-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0368.4254.090.030.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0333.3333.80-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.640.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0372.2274.700.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0329.4139.62-0.04-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0318.7536.76-0.05-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.760.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0335.2940.48-0.03-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0318.7518.40-0.05-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0312.5025.47-0.06-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.520.000.02
Iowa St.B120.080.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0377.7869.360.050.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0370.5975.930.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.080.0365.0063.830.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0321.0539.47-0.05-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0352.9452.230.000.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0346.6758.78-0.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0333.3333.36-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0340.0042.72-0.02-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.410.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.350.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.400.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.19-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.92-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.080.0360.0059.690.020.01
VMISC0.080.0325.0024.17-0.04-0.02