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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:153.4
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:98
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:17-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:83
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-244.50.11%
23-359.00.40%
22-467.71.19%
21-582.33.42%
20-696.57.75%
19-7113.212.69%
18-8132.617.45%
17-9152.617.53%
16-10174.216.28%
15-11193.710.63%
14-12215.97.13%
13-13235.73.09%
12-14254.01.68%
11-15273.60.45%
10-16296.50.16%
9-17291.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tulsa (155.3)AmerA67-74W100%0.0
11-14Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBH66-60W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Bakersfield (178.6)WACH0-065%4.5
11-27UTEP (192.6)CUSAA0-038%-3.6
12-2Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBA0-040%-3.1
12-17Southern Illinois (102.2)MVCA0-025%-8.2
12-19Duquesne (253.1)A10A0-045%-1.4
12-22UC Davis (154.8)BWN0-045%-1.6
12-28Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndH0-077%8.9
12-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndA0-053%1.1
1-3New Orleans (237.1)SlndA0-056%1.9
1-6Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-083%11.5
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (248.9)SlndH0-076%8.4
1-17Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndA0-074%7.9
1-20Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndH0-071%6.7
1-24Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndH0-082%10.9
1-27McNeese St. (331.7)SlndH0-091%16.2
1-31Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndA0-066%4.9
2-3Stephen F. Austin (161.5)SlndH0-053%0.9
2-7Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndA0-079%9.6
2-10Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndA0-052%0.7
2-14Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndH0-088%13.9
2-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndH0-072%7.0
2-21Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndA0-059%2.9
2-24Stephen F. Austin (161.5)SlndA0-034%-5.1
3-3McNeese St. (331.7)SlndA0-080%10.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd32.2926.46100.0069.0932.2910.10
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.780.0039.530.00-1.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.760.0030.550.00-1.85
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.004.730.0046.760.00-0.31
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.720.0047.950.00-0.19
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.004.70100.0070.370.001.91
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.650.0023.950.00-2.42
Coastal CarolinaSB25.003.8550.0049.070.00-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.920.0036.930.00-0.76
New OrleansSlnd0.002.890.0042.780.00-0.42
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.880.0036.250.00-0.79
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.8450.0044.740.00-0.30
Northwestern St.Slnd0.002.840.0022.990.00-1.53
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.810.0044.870.00-0.29
UTEPCUSA0.002.000.0051.300.000.05
DuquesneA100.001.96100.0047.440.00-0.10
TulsaAmer25.001.9666.6750.428.330.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.95100.0058.700.000.34
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.920.0042.990.00-0.27
UC DavisBW0.001.9266.6757.480.000.29
Texas St.SB0.000.3333.3346.090.00-0.03
UTSACUSA4.170.3233.3338.35-1.39-0.08
Little RockSB0.000.280.0037.050.00-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.2750.0035.330.00-0.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.2650.0059.190.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.2266.6753.670.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.2233.3346.880.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1950.0060.430.000.04
BaylorB120.000.19100.0061.110.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1833.3336.410.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.1833.3345.780.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1833.3342.010.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.160.0026.150.00-0.07
IdahoBSky0.000.1550.0060.380.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1550.0034.730.00-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.15100.0053.790.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.15100.0064.470.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1550.0069.320.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.15100.0046.080.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.1550.0036.640.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.140.0028.720.00-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.14100.0063.590.000.04
TroySB0.000.1433.3346.410.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.14100.0071.560.000.06
TulaneAmer0.000.14100.0054.140.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1233.3350.150.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.110.0033.930.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.11100.0076.260.000.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1133.3334.560.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1175.0058.930.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0059.540.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1050.0050.670.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1066.6756.400.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.10100.0059.760.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1033.3352.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6753.390.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.007.670.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.08100.0075.130.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.080.0048.610.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.08100.0080.230.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.08100.0053.240.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0086.180.000.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0049.250.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0850.0062.630.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.07100.0078.750.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.070.0045.040.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.07100.0064.910.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0775.0071.560.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3338.050.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0035.130.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.070.0040.830.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0766.6768.790.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.400.00-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0048.070.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.07100.0053.460.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0733.3349.220.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0750.0051.070.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0051.080.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6757.890.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3353.520.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0733.3338.880.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.070.0033.520.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0775.0064.570.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0733.3348.640.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.070.0034.600.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3353.300.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0733.3331.840.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0733.3350.220.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0766.6749.990.00-0.00
VermontAE4.170.0766.6774.121.390.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0775.0061.940.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0725.0035.000.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.07100.0041.780.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.070.0039.740.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.07100.0078.910.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0061.780.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.07100.0056.360.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0733.3334.490.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6728.760.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.07100.0056.600.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.07100.0082.290.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0018.970.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3336.610.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.04100.0083.700.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.04100.0071.180.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0450.0048.680.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0450.0060.060.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.040.0024.440.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0466.6742.170.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.04100.0060.070.000.01
TexasB120.000.04100.0063.830.000.01
UtahP120.000.04100.0067.160.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0466.6765.630.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.040.0016.000.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.04100.0054.590.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.04100.0082.960.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.04100.0044.740.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.04100.0066.490.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0466.6748.040.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0051.410.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.040.0045.640.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.040.0024.970.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0032.130.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.040.0046.080.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0466.6749.100.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0466.6768.320.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0450.0050.570.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0475.0072.950.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.04100.0062.630.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.040.0039.010.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0450.0046.810.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Iowa St.B123.120.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
Oral RobertsSum3.120.030.0023.26-3.12-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0033.850.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC3.120.0333.3353.19-1.040.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0037.120.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0021.010.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01