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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:290.4
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:348
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:351



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-598.00.01%
20-7121.00.01%
19-8168.60.05%
18-9173.70.41%
17-10197.21.24%
16-11219.12.80%
15-12238.76.67%
14-13258.310.68%
13-14277.015.76%
12-15293.619.04%
11-16307.317.41%
10-17319.412.76%
9-18328.48.10%
8-19335.23.60%
7-20341.21.13%
6-21344.00.26%
5-22346.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Oregon St. (264.9)P12A60-63W100%0.0
11-19Fresno St. (202.1)MWCA83-64L0%0.0
11-22UTSA (302.7)CUSAH78-58W100%0.0
11-25Prairie View A&M (309.6)SWACA83-91W100%0.0
11-29Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyA77-60L0%0.0
12-2San Francisco (170.5)WCCA0-017%-11.4
12-6DePaul (206.1)BEA0-016%-12.2
12-16UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACH0-068%5.6
12-19Liberty (191.4)BSthH0-043%-2.0
1-2Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndA0-040%-3.1
1-5New Orleans (298.6)SlndH0-064%4.4
1-7Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndH0-041%-2.6
1-11Incarnate Word (248.1)SlndH0-051%0.2
1-14Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndA0-022%-9.3
1-19Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndA0-019%-10.4
1-21Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndA0-043%-2.0
1-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (124.7)SlndH0-026%-7.7
1-28Northwestern St. (292.4)SlndH0-060%3.1
2-4McNeese St. (321.5)SlndH0-074%7.8
2-9Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndH0-036%-4.2
2-11Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndA0-029%-6.5
2-16Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndA0-017%-11.4
2-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (124.7)SlndA0-012%-13.9
2-22Northwestern St. (292.4)SlndA0-040%-3.1
2-25Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndH0-049%-0.3
3-2Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndH0-064%4.2
3-4McNeese St. (321.5)SlndA0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd28.9826.3573.9145.8013.86-2.21
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.004.62100.0068.840.001.74
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.590.0018.75-0.00-2.87
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.550.0036.58-0.00-1.22
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.5350.0057.510.000.68
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.500.0032.62-0.00-1.57
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.4842.8636.50-0.00-1.21
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.810.0037.44-0.00-0.71
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.7850.0056.340.000.35
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.7725.0055.62-0.000.31
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.7625.0052.25-0.000.12
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.7414.2928.12-0.00-1.20
New OrleansSlnd0.002.7325.0030.74-0.00-1.05
UTSACUSA12.552.0233.3329.47-4.18-0.83
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.001.9925.0024.00-0.00-1.04
Oregon St.P1212.551.9533.3324.58-4.18-0.99
Prairie View A&MSWAC12.431.9520.0033.75-7.46-0.63
Fresno St.MWC12.261.9550.0037.380.00-0.49
San FranciscoWCC0.001.8983.3349.550.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.001.8580.0034.290.00-0.58
Idaho St.BSky10.001.850.0027.30-10.00-0.84
LibertyBSth0.001.8540.0050.48-0.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.2585.7169.010.000.10
Texas TechB120.710.2485.7163.780.510.07
Texas St.SB0.710.2450.0043.310.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.710.2171.4358.670.310.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1866.6761.340.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.1725.0043.26-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1771.4363.090.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.830.17100.0089.040.830.13
SouthernSWAC0.000.1625.0056.92-0.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.710.1660.0058.950.140.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1566.6766.100.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1485.7159.740.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1471.4366.220.000.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1425.0038.72-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1414.2926.81-0.00-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1483.3356.560.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.710.1433.3335.92-0.24-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1371.4368.100.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1328.5727.50-0.00-0.06
IdahoBSky0.000.1340.0050.88-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.1340.0030.80-0.00-0.05
PortlandWCC0.000.1360.0057.170.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1340.0067.95-0.000.05
UtahP120.000.1375.0061.040.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1120.0032.60-0.00-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.1183.3351.920.000.00
IndianaB100.000.1183.3375.060.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.1183.3362.840.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.710.1071.4343.020.31-0.01
TulsaAmer0.710.1060.0039.200.14-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1025.0024.66-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.100.0021.30-0.00-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.710.1050.0053.560.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.000.1050.0059.670.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0049.010.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.1050.0058.980.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.1071.4368.660.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1083.3361.490.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.1025.0040.37-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.10100.0075.380.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0017.30-0.00-0.06
HoustonAmer0.000.1083.3376.370.000.05
NevadaMWC0.710.1075.0070.470.360.04
WyomingMWC0.000.1060.0048.590.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1066.6751.460.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.710.1050.0050.290.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.39-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0928.5734.18-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.05
OregonP120.000.0971.4366.730.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0950.0038.430.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0983.3363.610.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.090.0042.55-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.830.0975.0073.840.420.04
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.0750.0045.920.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0760.0052.760.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0766.6775.370.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0771.4350.570.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0757.1469.300.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0771.4349.590.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0757.1461.940.000.02
BaylorB120.000.07100.0074.460.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0716.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0750.0027.250.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0785.7162.410.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0766.6739.720.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0780.0068.320.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0757.1455.810.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0750.0046.670.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0714.2928.66-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0783.3374.620.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0750.0036.820.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0042.710.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0720.0048.38-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0091.060.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0056.260.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0750.0051.260.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0750.0035.230.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3336.31-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0775.0074.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0740.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0737.5036.24-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0720.0042.63-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0064.840.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0760.0070.500.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.04100.0086.250.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0483.3357.990.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0450.0057.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0450.0036.240.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.710.0342.8646.78-0.10-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
NJITASun0.710.0342.8650.32-0.100.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01