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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:295.5
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:144
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:303
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10145.20.05%
15-11171.30.22%
14-12190.30.92%
13-13213.12.37%
12-14234.05.51%
11-15256.110.41%
10-16277.315.68%
9-17296.218.71%
8-18312.918.12%
7-19325.613.64%
6-20335.48.36%
5-21342.13.86%
4-22345.91.64%
3-23348.70.43%
2-24350.20.05%
1-25351.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14SMU (30.8)AmerA93-54L0%0.0
11-19Texas St. (199.0)SBA65-55L0%0.0
11-22Indiana (67.7)B10A85-72L0%0.0
11-24Arkansas St. (246.4)SBA0-024%-8.3
11-28Texas Southern (260.7)SWACA0-034%-5.1
12-2Iowa St. (61.9)B12A0-03%-23.1
12-13Texas Pan American (266.8)WACA0-037%-3.9
12-22Rice (269.2)CUSAH0-056%1.9
1-3Nicholls St. (285.7)SlndH0-061%3.2
1-5New Orleans (288.7)SlndA0-038%-3.7
1-10Central Arkansas (332.2)SlndH0-073%7.5
1-12Texas A&M Corpus Chris (170.3)SlndA0-015%-12.3
1-17Northwestern St. (181.5)SlndA0-017%-11.4
1-19Southeastern Louisiana (287.3)SlndH0-058%2.5
1-24Houston Baptist (322.1)SlndA0-048%-0.6
1-26Stephen F. Austin (117.0)SlndH0-022%-9.3
1-31Abilene Christian (321.6)SlndH0-069%5.9
2-2Sam Houston St. (160.8)SlndA0-013%-13.3
2-7Incarnate Word (208.4)SlndA0-023%-8.7
2-9Abilene Christian (321.6)SlndA0-046%-1.3
2-16Houston Baptist (322.1)SlndH0-071%6.6
2-21McNeese St. (268.1)SlndH0-052%0.7
2-23Stephen F. Austin (117.0)SlndA0-09%-16.5
2-28Incarnate Word (208.4)SlndH0-045%-1.6
3-2McNeese St. (268.1)SlndA0-029%-6.5
3-5Sam Houston St. (160.8)SlndH0-030%-6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd31.9426.390.0036.12-31.94-7.33
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.800.0023.25-0.00-2.57
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.004.790.0065.03-0.001.44
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.004.7750.0062.900.001.23
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.740.0026.87-0.00-2.19
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.73100.0050.570.000.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.620.0042.15-0.00-0.73
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.9750.0062.450.000.74
Central ArkansasSlnd0.002.890.0021.21-0.00-1.67
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.002.860.0034.94-0.00-0.86
Nicholls St.Slnd0.002.860.0033.01-0.00-0.97
Northwestern St.Slnd0.002.850.0052.40-0.000.14
New OrleansSlnd0.002.840.0031.24-0.00-1.07
Texas St.SB16.672.0650.0046.900.00-0.13
Arkansas St.SB0.002.030.0042.05-0.00-0.32
IndianaB1018.752.03100.0061.1618.750.45
RiceCUSA0.002.0033.3327.63-0.00-0.90
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.001.99100.0030.230.00-0.79
Texas SouthernSWAC2.081.990.0036.32-2.08-0.54
SMUAmer18.751.9933.3368.13-6.250.72
Iowa St.B120.001.92100.0060.860.000.42
HoustonAmer0.000.29100.0065.000.000.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.280.0039.35-0.00-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.260.0048.44-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2550.0050.460.000.00
BaylorB120.000.25100.0067.490.000.09
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.2275.0056.830.000.03
UTSACUSA2.780.2250.0037.730.00-0.05
TulsaAmer0.000.2266.6752.480.000.01
TroySB0.000.210.0044.81-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.19100.0070.060.000.08
UMKCWAC0.000.1825.0044.56-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1866.6739.840.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.18100.0054.380.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1850.0063.440.000.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1866.6749.380.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.180.0058.69-0.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.080.1766.6767.580.690.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.080.160.0019.05-2.08-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0028.18-0.00-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1575.0069.220.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.1575.0058.200.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1466.6753.760.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1433.3321.72-0.00-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.140.0046.28-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.140.0039.80-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.14100.0081.510.000.09
OklahomaB120.000.1466.6762.380.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.140.0066.86-0.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1180.0071.590.000.05
DenverSum0.000.1166.6763.860.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.11100.0046.960.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1133.3362.70-0.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.11100.0041.850.00-0.02
SeattleWAC2.780.1125.0045.26-1.39-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1140.0042.16-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.11100.0053.680.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1066.6746.580.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0073.710.000.05
MichiganB100.000.10100.0064.520.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1025.0066.60-0.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0053.290.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6752.020.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.10100.0047.030.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0063.27-0.000.03
GonzagaWCC2.080.10100.0086.982.080.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1066.6750.120.000.00
PurdueB100.000.10100.0062.070.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.100.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0041.22-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.08100.0061.520.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.08100.0054.990.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0775.0065.560.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0775.0070.900.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6752.830.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0775.0063.000.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0720.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0028.27-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0740.0032.83-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0050.35-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.070.0037.72-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0071.230.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0750.0046.080.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0766.6757.190.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0033.67-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0036.09-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0051.200.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6748.230.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0780.0077.570.000.04
XavierBE0.000.07100.0075.510.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0085.040.000.05
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0063.150.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0766.6747.490.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.07100.0062.770.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0058.720.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0775.0070.770.000.03
KansasB120.000.0750.0062.480.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3342.08-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0750.0053.140.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0750.0035.380.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0071.890.000.03
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.830.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.94-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.38-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0028.39-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.81-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0625.0040.26-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0060.180.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0075.950.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0666.6737.040.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0466.6748.260.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0440.0050.84-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.04100.0065.190.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0450.0042.650.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.04100.0043.590.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0035.81-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0433.3353.66-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0450.0046.140.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.04100.0048.750.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0450.0054.200.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0433.3343.07-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0433.3343.32-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0466.6746.700.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0433.3323.14-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0433.3335.65-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0475.0067.590.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.040.0043.50-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0466.6769.560.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3323.98-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0034.180.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0059.020.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.730.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.030.0065.55-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0024.98-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0034.58-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0054.510.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.22-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.390.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0049.19-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.080.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.35-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3334.41-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.560.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.980.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0060.160.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6768.430.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.770.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.240.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.360.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.72-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0044.310.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.770.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0042.910.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.760.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0029.00-0.00-0.01