live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:325
Current Record:15-13
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-9
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13230.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Tulsa (89.0)AmerA67-74W100%0.0
11-14Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBH66-60W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH73-85L0%0.0
11-27UTEP (293.0)CUSAA52-66W100%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBA67-69W100%0.0
12-17Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCA71-61L0%0.0
12-19Duquesne (259.0)A10A65-64L0%0.0
12-22UC Davis (102.0)BWN77-68L0%0.0
12-23North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACN70-74L0%0.0
12-28Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH86-68W100%0.0
12-30Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)SlndA72-77W100%0.0
1-3New Orleans (239.0)SlndA72-62L0%0.0
1-6Central Arkansas (223.0)SlndH91-100L0%0.0
1-10Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndH58-63L0%0.0
1-17Incarnate Word (347.0)SlndA69-90W100%0.0
1-20Sam Houston St. (206.0)SlndH84-77W100%0.0
1-24Nicholls St. (145.0)SlndH74-79L0%0.0
1-27McNeese St. (297.0)SlndH86-80W100%0.0
1-31Abilene Christian (260.0)SlndA74-69L0%0.0
2-3Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndH76-54W100%0.0
2-7Northwestern St. (342.0)SlndA75-79W100%0.0
2-10Sam Houston St. (206.0)SlndA71-69L0%0.0
2-14Incarnate Word (347.0)SlndH85-62W100%0.0
2-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)SlndH79-76W100%0.0
2-21Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndA73-87W100%0.0
2-24Stephen F. Austin (104.0)SlndA66-71W100%0.0
3-3McNeese St. (297.0)SlndA69-60L0%0.0
3-7Central Arkansas (223.0)SlndN57-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.4026.4055.8055.803.063.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.514.5185.7185.713.223.22
Central ArkansasSlnd4.474.4746.6746.67-0.30-0.30
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.474.4751.8551.850.170.17
Houston BaptistSlnd4.434.4311.5411.54-3.41-3.41
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.424.4233.3333.33-1.47-1.47
Incarnate WordSlnd4.404.4013.6413.64-3.20-3.20
McNeese St.Slnd4.314.3130.4330.43-1.69-1.69
Coastal CarolinaSB3.573.5740.7440.74-0.66-0.66
New OrleansSlnd2.812.8140.7440.74-0.52-0.52
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.752.7562.0762.070.660.66
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.722.7242.3142.31-0.42-0.42
Nicholls St.Slnd2.722.7259.2659.260.500.50
Northwestern St.Slnd2.652.658.338.33-2.21-2.21
UTEPCUSA1.861.8634.4834.48-0.58-0.58
DuquesneA101.841.8448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.841.8454.8454.840.180.18
Southern IllinoisMVC1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
TulsaAmer1.841.8463.3363.330.490.49
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.791.7930.7730.77-0.69-0.69
UC DavisBW1.791.7965.5265.520.550.55
Texas St.SB0.350.3541.9441.94-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.310.3153.3353.330.020.02
Little RockSB0.300.3020.0020.00-0.18-0.18
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.230.2380.6580.650.140.14
HoustonAmer0.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
IdahoBSky0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
TroySB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
LSUSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.116.676.67-0.10-0.10
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.333.33-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
LipscombASun0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
RichmondA100.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
TexasB120.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
UtahP120.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0315.6215.62-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00