live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:225
Current Record:11-15
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-15230.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14SMU (12.0)AmerA93-54L0%0.0
11-19Texas St. (236.0)SBA65-55L0%0.0
11-22Indiana (61.0)B10A85-72L0%0.0
11-25Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA58-63W100%0.0
11-28Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA71-59L0%0.0
12-2Iowa St. (9.0)B12A96-59L0%0.0
12-13Texas Pan American (334.0)WACA66-60L0%0.0
12-22Rice (247.0)CUSAH79-72W100%0.0
1-3Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH75-62W100%0.0
1-5New Orleans (326.0)SlndA72-67L0%0.0
1-10Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH84-65W100%0.0
1-12Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndA64-66W100%0.0
1-17Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA96-84L0%0.0
1-19Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH57-50W100%0.0
1-24Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndA79-77L0%0.0
1-26Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH65-82L0%0.0
1-31Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH84-74W100%0.0
2-2Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndA79-50L0%0.0
2-7Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA78-72L0%0.0
2-9Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH80-61W100%0.0
2-16Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH72-64W100%0.0
2-21McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH58-53W100%0.0
2-23Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA103-74L0%0.0
2-28Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH79-66W100%0.0
3-2McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA70-69L0%0.0
3-5Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH61-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.3226.3243.6243.62-3.36-3.36
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.854.8585.7185.713.463.46
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.824.8270.3770.371.971.97
Houston BaptistSlnd4.754.7531.8231.82-1.73-1.73
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.704.7026.9226.92-2.17-2.17
Incarnate WordSlnd4.684.6859.0959.090.850.85
McNeese St.Slnd4.654.6540.0040.00-0.93-0.93
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.033.0358.6258.620.520.52
Northwestern St.Slnd2.932.9353.8553.850.230.23
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.882.8826.6726.67-1.35-1.35
New OrleansSlnd2.862.8628.0028.00-1.26-1.26
Nicholls St.Slnd2.852.8528.0028.00-1.25-1.25
Central ArkansasSlnd2.842.847.147.14-2.43-2.43
Texas St.SB2.062.0637.0437.04-0.53-0.53
Arkansas St.SB2.022.0237.0437.04-0.52-0.52
IndianaB102.022.0259.3859.380.380.38
RiceCUSA2.002.0035.7135.71-0.57-0.57
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.991.9922.2222.22-1.11-1.11
Texas SouthernSWAC1.981.9863.6463.640.540.54
SMUAmer1.981.9880.6580.651.211.21
Iowa St.B121.921.9275.0075.000.960.96
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.2843.7543.75-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
HoustonAmer0.280.2840.6240.62-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
BaylorB120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
UMKCWAC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
TroySB0.210.2129.6329.63-0.08-0.08
UTSACUSA0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
TexasB120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
OklahomaB120.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1518.7518.75-0.09-0.09
NebraskaB100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
NorthwesternB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
MarylandB100.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
SouthernSWAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Texas TechB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
KansasB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00