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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:243.8
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:327
Current Record:12-13
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13234.349.15%
13-14250.043.15%
12-15268.87.69%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Oregon St. (283.9)P12A60-63W100%0.0
11-19Fresno St. (96.7)MWCA83-64L0%0.0
11-22UTSA (291.5)CUSAH78-58W100%0.0
11-25Prairie View A&M (314.6)SWACA83-91W100%0.0
11-29Idaho St. (336.2)BSkyA77-60L0%0.0
12-2San Francisco (86.3)WCCA82-63L0%0.0
12-6DePaul (230.9)BEA80-61L0%0.0
12-16UT Rio Grande Valley (313.2)WACA95-81L0%0.0
12-19Liberty (162.2)BSthH82-65W100%0.0
1-2Central Arkansas (295.6)SlndA75-78W100%0.0
1-5New Orleans (164.7)SlndH62-66L0%0.0
1-7Southeastern Louisiana (253.9)SlndH74-54W100%0.0
1-11Incarnate Word (305.9)SlndH87-72W100%0.0
1-14Abilene Christian (266.8)SlndA67-64L0%0.0
1-19Sam Houston St. (190.7)SlndA87-65L0%0.0
1-21Nicholls St. (247.0)SlndA76-87W100%0.0
1-25Texas A&M Corpus Chris (152.7)SlndH66-69L0%0.0
1-28Northwestern St. (318.3)SlndH85-64W100%0.0
2-4McNeese St. (307.1)SlndH77-57W100%0.0
2-9Sam Houston St. (190.7)SlndH80-76W100%0.0
2-11Houston Baptist (182.8)SlndA94-87L0%0.0
2-16Stephen F. Austin (197.8)SlndA70-61L0%0.0
2-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (152.7)SlndA70-63L0%0.0
2-22Northwestern St. (318.3)SlndA68-88W100%0.0
2-25Houston Baptist (182.8)SlndH68-75L0%0.0
3-2Nicholls St. (247.0)SlndH0-081%9.4
3-4McNeese St. (307.1)SlndA0-061%2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.3226.3552.3453.961.232.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.814.6259.0959.490.870.88
McNeese St.Slnd2.914.5921.7421.51-1.65-2.62
Houston BaptistSlnd4.734.5442.8644.74-0.68-0.48
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.754.5256.5256.820.620.62
Northwestern St.Slnd4.694.5033.3334.01-1.56-1.44
Nicholls St.Slnd2.824.4841.6741.12-0.47-0.79
Incarnate WordSlnd2.862.8031.8231.25-1.04-1.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.912.7748.1547.57-0.11-0.13
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.822.7750.0051.700.000.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.832.7536.3637.22-0.77-0.70
Central ArkansasSlnd2.822.7427.5927.90-1.27-1.21
New OrleansSlnd2.772.7256.5257.600.360.41
UTSACUSA2.192.0238.4638.26-0.51-0.47
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.171.9923.0822.39-1.17-1.10
Oregon St.P122.111.9514.2913.90-1.51-1.41
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.111.9530.7732.95-0.81-0.66
Fresno St.MWC2.111.9556.0056.270.250.24
San FranciscoWCC2.041.8962.0762.070.490.46
DePaulBE2.001.8528.5727.71-0.86-0.83
Idaho St.BSky2.001.8511.5412.93-1.54-1.37
LibertyBSth2.001.8559.2659.260.370.34
RiceCUSA0.290.2566.6765.550.100.08
Texas TechB120.240.2458.6258.500.040.04
Texas St.SB0.240.2456.0054.920.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.240.2155.1754.850.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1857.6957.810.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.200.1744.4445.02-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.190.1760.7159.700.040.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1689.6689.660.150.13
SouthernSWAC0.150.1646.1545.04-0.01-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1640.0041.50-0.04-0.03
UtahP120.180.1661.5461.950.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1553.5752.890.010.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1462.0761.430.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1430.7730.77-0.06-0.05
NorthwesternB100.160.1468.9767.270.060.05
TulaneAmer0.120.1417.8618.08-0.08-0.09
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1467.8666.120.060.04
Cal PolyBW0.160.1430.7732.97-0.06-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.1380.7781.310.050.08
IdahoBSky0.150.1352.0053.420.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.150.1323.0822.49-0.08-0.07
San DiegoWCC0.110.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1367.8668.870.050.05
PortlandWCC0.140.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.130.1135.7135.48-0.04-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1123.0824.04-0.07-0.06
IndianaB100.120.1155.1753.960.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1050.0049.680.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.120.1075.8673.450.060.05
TulsaAmer0.120.1050.0049.050.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.120.1044.4445.15-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.1014.8114.81-0.08-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1036.0035.08-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1072.0072.040.050.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1050.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1025.9325.10-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.080.1065.3865.550.020.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1066.6765.560.040.03
USCP120.110.1072.4173.260.050.05
HoustonAmer0.110.1071.4370.580.050.04
NevadaMWC0.110.1079.3179.090.070.06
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1055.5656.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1011.1111.53-0.08-0.07
WyomingMWC0.110.1055.5655.160.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.110.1045.8345.20-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.0940.0042.28-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0917.2420.08-0.07-0.06
OregonP120.070.0986.2186.570.050.07
PacificWCC0.110.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.0966.6767.530.040.03
BYUWCC0.100.0967.7467.740.040.03
CaliforniaP120.100.0967.8666.480.040.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0936.0040.25-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.110.0975.8676.270.060.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0954.1752.440.010.00
ButlerBE0.100.0979.3179.350.060.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0725.0025.17-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0760.0060.000.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0776.0077.290.020.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0750.0049.020.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0779.3178.860.020.04
SMUAmer0.040.0786.2186.520.030.05
UNLVMWC0.040.0734.4833.87-0.01-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0778.5777.150.050.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0719.2322.18-0.02-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0731.0329.49-0.02-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.040.0779.3177.540.020.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0753.5752.450.010.00
OhioMAC0.080.0765.3866.640.020.02
SamfordSC0.040.0753.5752.980.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0750.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.040.0765.5266.270.010.02
Washington St.P120.080.0744.4441.81-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0750.0052.300.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0733.3332.49-0.03-0.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.5753.570.010.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0767.8666.440.030.02
High PointBSth0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0711.1111.11-0.06-0.05
RadfordBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0748.0046.19-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0740.0039.27-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0744.4445.62-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0614.8114.35-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0632.0030.44-0.03-0.02
MontanaBSky0.040.0648.2848.65-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0648.1547.91-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0665.2266.440.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0628.0030.25-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.0057.060.010.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0642.3142.27-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.067.698.10-0.06-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0626.9228.27-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0621.4322.28-0.04-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0653.5753.810.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0696.6796.670.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.070.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0648.1546.78-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0660.7163.340.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0689.6690.150.050.05
Arizona St.P120.070.0646.6745.71-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0074.570.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0648.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0642.3141.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0662.0762.540.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0664.2962.630.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0644.8343.89-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0690.0089.570.060.05
XavierBE0.030.0662.0762.620.010.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0459.2659.260.010.01
TexasB120.040.0434.4834.12-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.7682.930.030.02
FurmanSC0.040.0365.5265.520.010.01
IowaB100.040.0355.1754.140.000.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.040.0375.0075.780.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0310.0010.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0362.0762.070.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0370.3769.030.010.01
VCUA100.040.0379.3178.000.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0351.8551.850.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0340.0041.36-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0319.2319.72-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0353.5754.970.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.7186.430.030.02
NJITASun0.040.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0325.0025.07-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0364.2964.650.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0311.1111.98-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0344.8345.81-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0386.6786.550.030.02
George MasonA100.040.0360.7159.910.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
Kansas St.B120.040.0358.6257.980.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0357.1456.880.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0337.9338.88-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.0035.98-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0351.8551.300.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0316.0016.70-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0332.1430.72-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0366.6765.850.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0362.9663.840.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0365.5265.140.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.28-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.990.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0344.4445.39-0.00-0.00