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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:344.0
Current RPI:344
Expected SOS:285
Current SOS:285
Current Record:3-25
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:2-14
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-12
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:347
Expected OOC SOS:306



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-25344.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Butler (150.0)BEA89-58L0%0.0
11-12George Mason (164.0)A10H54-68L0%0.0
11-16Washington St. (224.0)P12A84-64L0%0.0
11-21Savannah St. (273.0)MEACN66-75W100%0.0
11-22Utah (80.0)P12A84-57L0%0.0
11-23Grand Canyon (203.0)WACN69-78L0%0.0
11-27Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH61-66L0%0.0
11-30Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH89-95L0%0.0
12-15Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH74-79L0%0.0
12-18LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA82-79L0%0.0
12-21Canisius (96.0)MAACA87-74L0%0.0
12-28Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA86-71L0%0.0
1-2Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA85-65L0%0.0
1-4Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA99-85L0%0.0
1-9Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH60-64L0%0.0
1-11McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH59-74L0%0.0
1-16New Orleans (260.0)SlndA77-55L0%0.0
1-18Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA91-65L0%0.0
1-30Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH59-57W100%0.0
2-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH35-58L0%0.0
2-8Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA84-70L0%0.0
2-13Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH69-78L0%0.0
2-15Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH67-87L0%0.0
2-22Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH71-74L0%0.0
2-27Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA75-67L0%0.0
3-1Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA76-69L0%0.0
3-6New Orleans (260.0)SlndH89-72W100%0.0
3-8Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH62-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.2426.248.338.33-21.86-21.86
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.514.5166.6766.671.501.50
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.374.3792.5992.593.723.72
Northwestern St.Slnd4.334.3344.0044.00-0.52-0.52
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.294.2925.0025.00-2.14-2.14
New OrleansSlnd4.234.2335.0035.00-1.27-1.27
Nicholls St.Slnd2.672.6744.0044.00-0.32-0.32
Oral RobertsSlnd2.622.6242.8642.86-0.37-0.37
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.582.5851.8551.850.100.10
McNeese St.Slnd2.572.5723.0823.08-1.38-1.38
Central ArkansasSlnd2.542.5420.8320.83-1.48-1.48
Houston BaptistSlnd2.462.4615.3815.38-1.70-1.70
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.981.9823.3323.33-1.05-1.05
UtahP121.911.9162.0762.070.460.46
Grand CanyonWAC1.901.9044.0044.00-0.23-0.23
Washington St.P121.881.8827.5927.59-0.84-0.84
Savannah St.MEAC1.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
LIU BrooklynNEC1.851.8528.5728.57-0.79-0.79
Tennessee TechOVC1.851.8546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Arkansas St.SB1.821.8255.1755.170.190.19
ButlerBE1.821.8241.3841.38-0.31-0.31
CanisiusMAAC1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
Colorado St.MWC1.791.7944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
George MasonA101.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
LSUSEC0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
Texas St.SB0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
UTEPCUSA0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
IdahoWAC0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1521.2121.21-0.09-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
WashingtonP120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.09-0.09
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1334.6234.62-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
SMUAmer0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
StanfordP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Oregon St.P120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Texas TechB120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01