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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:337.0
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:338
Current SOS:338
Current Record:7-19
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-19337.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA80-72L0%0.0
11-21Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA66-77W100%0.0
11-25Rice (279.0)CUSAA92-84L0%0.0
11-29UC Riverside (267.0)BWH69-74L0%0.0
12-2UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH83-60W100%0.0
12-5Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH82-70W100%0.0
12-12Liberty (264.0)BSthA58-73W100%0.0
12-13Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA88-53L0%0.0
1-2Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndA67-79W100%0.0
1-4New Orleans (343.0)SlndH64-68L0%0.0
1-9Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA93-76L0%0.0
1-11Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH82-91L0%0.0
1-16Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH86-82W100%0.0
1-18Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA98-70L0%0.0
1-23Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH79-92L0%0.0
1-25Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndA86-52L0%0.0
1-30Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA80-71L0%0.0
2-1Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH66-69L0%0.0
2-6Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH71-74L0%0.0
2-8Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH67-71L0%0.0
2-15Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA79-78L0%0.0
2-20McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA76-87W100%0.0
2-22Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH58-79L0%0.0
2-27Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA89-70L0%0.0
2-29McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH74-77L0%0.0
3-3Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA94-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
LamarSlnd26.3126.3128.4628.46-11.33-11.33
Houston BaptistSlnd4.894.8940.7440.74-0.90-0.90
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.794.7980.7780.772.942.94
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.744.7448.1548.15-0.18-0.18
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.714.7128.0028.00-2.07-2.07
Incarnate WordSlnd4.704.7052.1752.170.200.20
McNeese St.Slnd4.604.6025.0025.00-2.30-2.30
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.043.0475.8675.861.571.57
Nicholls St.Slnd2.952.9526.6726.67-1.38-1.38
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.912.9130.0030.00-1.16-1.16
Central ArkansasSlnd2.792.7922.2222.22-1.55-1.55
New OrleansSlnd2.792.7923.0823.08-1.50-1.50
Northwestern St.Slnd2.792.7921.7421.74-1.57-1.57
RiceCUSA2.132.1331.0331.03-0.81-0.81
UC RiversideBW2.122.1236.6736.67-0.57-0.57
Fresno St.MWC1.991.9970.9770.970.830.83
Delaware St.MEAC1.981.9817.2417.24-1.30-1.30
Idaho St.BSky1.961.9650.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.961.9619.2319.23-1.20-1.20
LibertyBSth1.921.9235.7135.71-0.55-0.55
Virginia TechACC1.921.9256.2556.250.240.24
TCUB120.200.2036.3636.36-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.190.1978.1278.120.100.10
CaliforniaP120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
TulaneAmer0.140.1435.2935.29-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1372.4172.410.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
UNLVMWC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
SeattleWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1062.8662.860.020.02
RadfordBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.453.45-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0443.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.040.0412.9012.90-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0411.1111.11-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02