Lamar

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	335.0
Current RPI:	335
Expected SOS:	248
Current SOS:	248
Current Record:	3-28
Expected Record:	3-28
Current Conf Record:	1-17
Expected Conf Record:	1-17
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-15
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	303
Expected OOC SOS:	189

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-28	335.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	79-55	L	0%
11-13	North Texas (247.0)	SB	N	59-74	L	0%
11-17	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	A	70-49	L	0%
11-19	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	63-44	L	0%
11-20	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	N	82-86	W	100%
11-25	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	93-53	L	0%
11-27	Alabama (60.0)	SEC	A	75-47	L	0%
12-4	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	72-39	L	0%
12-11	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	77-60	L	0%
12-12	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	85-68	L	0%
12-15	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	75-70	L	0%
12-29	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	81-80	W	100%
1-3	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	79-43	L	0%
1-5	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	86-58	L	0%
1-7	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	63-67	L	0%
1-10	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	57-68	L	0%
1-12	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	56-62	L	0%
1-19	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	74-50	L	0%
1-24	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	91-74	L	0%
1-26	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	88-59	L	0%
1-31	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	63-85	L	0%
2-2	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	51-65	L	0%
2-7	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	63-67	W	100%
2-9	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	78-40	L	0%
2-16	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	62-69	L	0%
2-19	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	63-74	L	0%
2-23	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	61-74	L	0%
2-28	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	99-106	L	0%
3-2	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	50-68	L	0%
3-7	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	90-63	L	0%
3-9	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	86-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Lamar's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Lamar's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Lamar.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Lamar	Slnd	26.35	26.35	10.64	10.64	-20.74	-20.74
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.30	4.30	41.38	41.38	-0.74	-0.74
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.27	4.27	33.33	33.33	-1.42	-1.42
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.26	4.26	34.62	34.62	-1.31	-1.31
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.23	4.23	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.23	4.23	84.00	84.00	2.88	2.88
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.23	4.23	68.00	68.00	1.52	1.52
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.20	4.20	34.62	34.62	-1.29	-1.29
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.19	4.19	25.00	25.00	-2.09	-2.09
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.12	4.12	15.38	15.38	-2.85	-2.85
North Texas	SB	1.85	1.85	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.80	1.80	35.48	35.48	-0.52	-0.52
Arkansas St.	SB	1.77	1.77	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Texas St.	WAC	1.72	1.72	31.25	31.25	-0.64	-0.64
Charlotte	A10	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Kansas St.	B12	1.66	1.66	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Baylor	B12	1.66	1.66	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
IUPUI	Sum	1.64	1.64	13.79	13.79	-1.19	-1.19
Virginia	ACC	1.64	1.64	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Texas Pan American	GWC	1.64	1.64	40.74	40.74	-0.30	-0.30
Alabama	SEC	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Long Island	NEC	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Purdue	B10	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Oklahoma	B12	0.33	0.33	64.52	64.52	0.10	0.10
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.22	0.22	80.65	80.65	0.14	0.14
Florida International	SB	0.22	0.22	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.22	0.22	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.21	0.21	14.81	14.81	-0.15	-0.15
Western Kentucky	SB	0.21	0.21	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.21	0.21	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Texas A&M	SEC	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.18	0.18	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.18	0.18	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.18	0.18	84.85	84.85	0.13	0.13
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.17	0.17	18.18	18.18	-0.11	-0.11
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
West Virginia	B12	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00