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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Campbell

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:316.0
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:327
Current SOS:327
Current Record:9-19
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19316.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA66-73W100%0.0
11-16North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
11-18North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH43-62L0%0.0
11-20Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA81-62L0%0.0
11-30Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA73-75W100%0.0
12-3UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA69-50L0%0.0
12-13Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA80-68L0%0.0
12-18Robert Morris (129.0)NECA72-61L0%0.0
12-30Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH69-63W100%0.0
1-2East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH71-79L0%0.0
1-4Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH60-70L0%0.0
1-8High Point (172.0)BSthH74-71W100%0.0
1-11Longwood (337.0)BSthA67-75W100%0.0
1-14Liberty (311.0)BSthA71-68L0%0.0
1-18VMI (211.0)BSthH97-93W100%0.0
1-22Radford (240.0)BSthH65-63W100%0.0
1-25Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA66-48L0%0.0
1-29Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH65-57W100%0.0
2-1Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH58-61L0%0.0
2-5UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA86-73L0%0.0
2-8Winthrop (168.0)BSthA88-62L0%0.0
2-12Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH77-66W100%0.0
2-15Longwood (337.0)BSthH53-76L0%0.0
2-19VMI (211.0)BSthA84-81L0%0.0
2-22Liberty (311.0)BSthH59-79L0%0.0
2-26Radford (240.0)BSthA82-78L0%0.0
2-28High Point (172.0)BSthA56-53L0%0.0
3-5Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthN71-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CampbellBSth26.2926.2931.9731.97-9.48-9.48
VMIBSth4.384.3856.0056.000.530.53
RadfordBSth4.364.3660.7160.710.930.93
LibertyBSth4.354.3522.2222.22-2.42-2.42
LongwoodBSth4.324.3211.5411.54-3.32-3.32
High PointBSth4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth4.254.2532.0032.00-1.53-1.53
Georgia SouthernSC3.643.6441.3841.38-0.63-0.63
WinthropBSth2.722.7255.1755.170.280.28
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.632.6358.6258.620.450.45
Gardner WebbBSth2.632.6348.2848.28-0.09-0.09
PresbyterianBSth2.622.6213.7913.79-1.90-1.90
UNC AshevilleBSth2.622.6246.4346.43-0.19-0.19
Appalachian St.SC1.981.9820.0020.00-1.19-1.19
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.981.9820.6920.69-1.16-1.16
East CarolinaCUSA1.941.9442.8642.86-0.28-0.28
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.941.9483.3383.331.291.29
North Carolina St.ACC1.911.9160.6160.610.400.40
CincinnatiAmer1.881.8881.2581.251.171.17
Delaware St.MEAC1.841.8422.2222.22-1.02-1.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.791.7926.6726.67-0.83-0.83
Robert MorrisNEC1.791.7960.6160.610.380.38
WoffordSC0.390.3958.6258.620.070.07
The CitadelSC0.370.3713.7913.79-0.27-0.27
UNC GreensboroSC0.330.3337.9337.93-0.08-0.08
FurmanSC0.330.3325.9325.93-0.16-0.16
Western CarolinaSC0.310.3151.6151.610.010.01
DelawareCAA0.310.3173.5373.530.150.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.300.3025.8125.81-0.15-0.15
William & MaryCAA0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
ElonSC0.250.2555.1755.170.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.210.2148.4848.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.10-0.10
SamfordSC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.180.1819.3519.35-0.11-0.11
Virginia TechACC0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
DavidsonSC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
DukeACC0.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.08-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0993.1093.100.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
NJITind0.090.0936.0036.00-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0724.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00