Campbell

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	289.0
Current RPI:	289
Expected SOS:	297
Current SOS:	297
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-11
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	247
Expected OOC SOS:	89

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	289.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	67-71	L	0%
11-16	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	101-82	W	100%
11-18	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	88-68	L	0%
11-20	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	91-72	L	0%
11-23	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	N	85-60	L	0%
11-24	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	N	70-62	L	0%
12-4	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	58-61	L	0%
12-19	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	74-52	L	0%
12-22	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	72-49	L	0%
12-29	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	72-60	W	100%
1-2	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	A	81-86	W	100%
1-5	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	93-81	W	100%
1-9	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	73-83	W	100%
1-12	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	A	46-62	W	100%
1-16	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	76-57	L	0%
1-19	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	63-59	W	100%
1-23	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	69-60	W	100%
1-26	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	73-59	L	0%
1-29	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	89-72	L	0%
2-2	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	61-78	L	0%
2-6	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	52-58	L	0%
2-9	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	86-68	L	0%
2-13	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	80-82	L	0%
2-16	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	87-78	W	100%
2-19	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	66-72	W	100%
2-23	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	63-69	L	0%
2-27	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	66-79	L	0%
3-2	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	63-62	L	0%
3-5	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	N	81-73	W	100%
3-7	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	N	71-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Campbell	BSth	26.24	26.24	35.92	35.92	-7.39	-7.39
Liberty	BSth	4.20	4.20	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
Longwood	BSth	4.11	4.11	17.24	17.24	-2.69	-2.69
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	4.10	4.10	38.46	38.46	-0.95	-0.95
High Point	BSth	4.09	4.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	4.07	4.07	37.04	37.04	-1.06	-1.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.06	4.06	60.71	60.71	0.87	0.87
Presbyterian	BSth	4.00	4.00	18.52	18.52	-2.52	-2.52
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.50	2.50	55.56	55.56	0.28	0.28
Winthrop	BSth	2.44	2.44	40.74	40.74	-0.45	-0.45
NC Asheville	BSth	2.44	2.44	42.86	42.86	-0.35	-0.35
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.40	2.40	40.00	40.00	-0.48	-0.48
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.83	1.83	51.52	51.52	0.06	0.06
Appalachian St.	SC	1.82	1.82	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
East Carolina	CUSA	1.75	1.75	56.00	56.00	0.21	0.21
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.74	1.74	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Cincinnati	BE	1.72	1.72	65.62	65.62	0.54	0.54
Iowa St.	B12	1.72	1.72	65.62	65.62	0.54	0.54
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.70	1.70	32.14	32.14	-0.61	-0.61
Robert Morris	NEC	1.69	1.69	68.75	68.75	0.64	0.64
Gonzaga	WCC	1.67	1.67	93.55	93.55	1.45	1.45
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.67	1.67	32.26	32.26	-0.59	-0.59
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	69.23	69.23	0.64	0.64
Seattle	WAC	1.67	1.67	21.43	21.43	-0.95	-0.95
The Citadel	SC	0.29	0.29	21.43	21.43	-0.16	-0.16
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.27	0.27	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.24	0.24	20.69	20.69	-0.14	-0.14
William & Mary	CAA	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Marshall	CUSA	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.19	0.19	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Howard	MEAC	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.16	0.16	67.86	67.86	0.06	0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Wofford	SC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	85.19	85.19	0.07	0.07
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01