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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Campbell

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:292.5
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:349
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10163.00.01%
17-11145.40.07%
16-12165.10.09%
15-13183.30.48%
14-14202.81.39%
13-15223.03.28%
12-16243.36.74%
11-17261.810.84%
10-18279.615.65%
9-19295.617.93%
8-20309.716.82%
7-21321.213.00%
6-22331.38.00%
5-23337.63.80%
4-24342.81.44%
3-25346.80.37%
2-26349.10.07%
1-27349.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Davidson (107.6)A10A86-51L0%0.0
11-22Colgate (213.2)PatH48-54L0%0.0
11-26Ohio St. (32.1)B10A0-01%-28.2
11-30Sacred Heart (305.7)NECA0-041%-2.7
12-2James Madison (214.3)CAAA0-021%-9.7
12-10Delaware St. (247.3)MEACA0-027%-7.3
12-14College of Charleston (147.4)CAAA0-011%-14.7
12-17SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCH0-058%2.5
12-23UNC Wilmington (169.9)CAAH0-037%-4.1
12-28Samford (283.7)SCA0-035%-4.6
12-31Liberty (333.4)BSthH0-071%6.5
1-5Charleston Southern (180.6)BSthA0-019%-10.6
1-10High Point (148.5)BSthA0-018%-11.2
1-12Coastal Carolina (143.8)BSthH0-027%-7.3
1-15Radford (204.8)BSthH0-041%-2.8
1-17UNC Asheville (197.4)BSthH0-041%-2.8
1-22Presbyterian (321.7)BSthA0-052%0.6
1-24Winthrop (213.6)BSthA0-020%-10.0
1-28Gardner Webb (124.9)BSthH0-030%-6.4
1-31UNC Asheville (197.4)BSthA0-020%-10.0
2-3Presbyterian (321.7)BSthH0-074%7.8
2-6Gardner Webb (124.9)BSthA0-013%-13.6
2-10Liberty (333.4)BSthA0-048%-0.7
2-14High Point (148.5)BSthH0-037%-4.0
2-19Coastal Carolina (143.8)BSthA0-011%-14.5
2-21Charleston Southern (180.6)BSthH0-039%-3.4
2-26Winthrop (213.6)BSthH0-041%-2.8
2-28Longwood (335.4)BSthA0-058%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CampbellBSth34.3826.460.0033.21-34.38-8.89
High PointBSth0.004.6175.0055.740.000.53
PresbyterianBSth0.004.550.0021.47-0.00-2.60
LibertyBSth0.004.5525.0028.96-0.00-1.91
Gardner WebbBSth0.004.5540.0057.32-0.000.67
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.004.540.0064.99-0.001.36
UNC AshevilleBSth0.004.5233.3348.91-0.00-0.10
Charleston SouthernBSth0.004.5166.6752.860.000.26
WinthropBSth0.004.5133.3353.31-0.000.30
LongwoodBSth0.002.9025.0019.95-0.00-1.75
RadfordBSth0.002.8933.3352.04-0.000.12
James MadisonCAA3.122.1375.0046.721.56-0.14
College of CharlestonCAA0.002.0140.0051.25-0.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.002.0066.6746.550.00-0.14
Ohio St.B100.001.94100.0073.860.000.93
ColgatePat25.001.870.0037.63-25.00-0.46
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.8733.3332.56-0.00-0.65
SamfordSC0.001.8540.0039.30-0.00-0.40
DavidsonA1025.001.850.0051.89-25.000.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.7933.3345.15-0.00-0.17
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.001.790.0032.52-0.00-0.62
DelawareCAA0.000.280.0018.08-0.00-0.18
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.250.0028.01-0.00-0.11
William & MaryCAA0.000.2575.0056.430.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.230.0035.72-0.00-0.07
FurmanSC0.000.2233.3323.56-0.00-0.12
ClemsonACC0.000.2060.0052.120.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2066.6757.980.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2025.0050.46-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.1980.0076.700.000.10
RichmondA100.000.1966.6766.740.000.06
DrexelCAA0.000.1820.0035.41-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1850.0043.080.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1860.0066.760.000.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.18100.0072.230.000.08
TowsonCAA0.000.1880.0058.000.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1725.0031.38-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1766.6741.550.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1740.0033.07-0.00-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1750.0031.510.00-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.160.0050.30-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.1580.0067.040.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1450.0035.490.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0023.12-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1475.0052.730.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1320.0053.43-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1360.0068.250.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1333.3333.84-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1360.0047.180.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1350.0030.040.00-0.05
AmericanPat0.000.1360.0057.160.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0032.36-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1050.0064.410.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1080.0074.570.000.05
MarylandB100.000.10100.0072.100.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1066.6756.780.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1066.6754.720.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.100.0024.22-0.00-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1080.0070.940.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0960.0056.190.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6772.650.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0027.32-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0920.0022.51-0.00-0.05
VMISC0.000.0933.3338.23-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.09100.0066.730.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0975.0065.570.000.03
IowaB100.000.0960.0064.290.000.03
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0029.35-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.82-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0733.3368.48-0.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0725.0045.33-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.07100.0065.220.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0065.600.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0740.0039.52-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.07100.0061.980.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0725.0048.23-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0039.42-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0740.0050.32-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0028.11-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3344.17-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0775.0047.410.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0075.900.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.76-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0720.0038.11-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.07100.0084.950.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0065.620.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0046.48-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0055.470.000.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
CornellIvy3.120.0633.3336.17-1.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.980.000.01
La SalleA103.120.06100.0056.943.120.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.54-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0620.0045.09-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2929.93-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6759.490.000.01
North CarolinaACC6.250.06100.0069.876.250.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.41-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.380.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0055.20-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0055.150.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3336.66-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.42-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3337.42-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.060.0035.78-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.90-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0028.76-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.13-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.46-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0620.0031.41-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3349.68-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.52-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0044.79-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.63-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.400.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0042.550.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.400.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.030.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0475.0071.930.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0053.790.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.040.0019.97-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.04100.0060.830.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0466.6761.780.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0425.0037.50-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.04100.0050.900.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.04100.0048.940.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0440.0047.10-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.040.0025.13-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0466.6744.670.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0057.240.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.03-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.870.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.74-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.32-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3329.06-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6752.600.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.460.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.66-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0048.890.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.890.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0039.00-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0028.08-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0064.97-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0049.930.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3361.54-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.250.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0024.20-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.500.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.30-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.890.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.58-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0081.280.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.250.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.300.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0070.280.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.260.000.02