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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Campbell

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:295.2
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:336
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8148.00.01%
18-9166.00.02%
17-10180.40.14%
16-11202.10.46%
15-12223.91.98%
14-13243.14.58%
13-14261.99.75%
12-15278.714.91%
11-16293.819.00%
10-17306.619.39%
9-18316.814.86%
8-19325.79.41%
7-20331.84.04%
6-21336.91.15%
5-22342.20.27%
4-23343.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12A102-65L0%0.0
11-19Morgan St. (329.9)MEACA82-66L0%0.0
11-21Samford (166.0)SCH53-66L0%0.0
11-26VMI (322.5)SCA53-67W100%0.0
12-2USC Upstate (263.9)ASunN80-73L0%0.0
12-3Colgate (289.9)PatN73-71W100%0.0
12-4The Citadel (299.9)SCA91-97W100%0.0
12-14UNC Wilmington (47.3)CAAH0-010%-15.6
12-22Stetson (319.1)ASunH0-063%4.0
12-29Longwood (332.7)BSthA0-053%0.9
12-31Presbyterian (322.6)BSthH0-071%6.6
1-4Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthH0-053%0.8
1-7Liberty (211.7)BSthA0-023%-8.9
1-11Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthA0-019%-10.6
1-14Winthrop (111.3)BSthH0-021%-9.7
1-19High Point (239.4)BSthH0-047%-0.9
1-21UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthA0-011%-14.9
1-26Radford (263.5)BSthA0-037%-3.9
1-28Liberty (211.7)BSthH0-041%-2.6
2-1Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthH0-036%-4.3
2-4Winthrop (111.3)BSthA0-09%-15.9
2-9Longwood (332.7)BSthH0-072%7.2
2-11Presbyterian (322.6)BSthA0-051%0.3
2-15Charleston Southern (265.9)BSthA0-032%-5.5
2-18UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthH0-024%-8.6
2-23High Point (239.4)BSthA0-027%-7.2
2-25Radford (263.5)BSthH0-058%2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CampbellBSth28.3526.5051.3539.690.77-5.47
RadfordBSth0.604.8828.5732.87-0.26-1.67
PresbyterianBSth1.044.8833.3326.10-0.35-2.33
High PointBSth0.514.8542.8645.22-0.07-0.46
Charleston SouthernBSth0.404.8420.0036.01-0.24-1.35
UNC AshevilleBSth0.404.8257.1466.110.061.55
Gardner WebbBSth0.604.8233.3350.53-0.200.05
LibertyBSth0.004.7833.3346.55-0.00-0.33
LongwoodBSth0.004.7820.0020.56-0.00-2.81
WinthropBSth0.004.7850.0069.970.001.91
VMISC7.142.250.0017.42-7.14-1.47
USC UpstateASun8.042.1937.5039.04-2.01-0.48
The CitadelSC7.992.1557.1431.481.14-0.80
StetsonASun0.452.0228.5727.91-0.19-0.89
SamfordSC7.141.9957.1454.961.020.20
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.9883.3376.640.001.06
ColgatePat7.991.9214.2930.73-5.70-0.74
Morgan St.MEAC7.141.920.0035.97-7.14-0.54
Oklahoma St.B127.141.8566.6752.742.380.10
FurmanSC0.000.5333.3356.24-0.000.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.4671.4356.260.000.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.3328.5723.12-0.00-0.18
MercerSC0.000.2642.8647.76-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2383.3379.850.000.14
Virginia TechACC0.600.2085.7162.990.430.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2057.1452.030.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.2071.4373.040.000.09
WoffordSC0.000.200.0034.81-0.00-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.2033.3346.01-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1971.4359.470.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1787.5065.250.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.1714.2942.67-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.450.1750.0049.780.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.1685.7183.660.000.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1440.0054.54-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1457.1451.790.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1357.1471.940.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1342.8643.60-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1357.1459.280.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1325.0030.23-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.1312.5033.04-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.1312.5034.79-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1377.7849.900.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0022.58-0.00-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.000.1312.5030.68-0.00-0.05
Texas TechB120.000.1387.5062.040.000.03
VCUA100.000.1375.0073.060.000.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.840.1366.6761.550.280.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1350.0040.600.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1387.5059.310.000.02
NavyPat0.000.1325.0037.38-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.1387.5075.860.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1071.4373.490.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1025.0034.40-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.450.1028.5723.78-0.19-0.05
HoustonAmer0.510.1085.7178.280.360.06
HowardMEAC0.000.1016.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.450.1014.2932.19-0.32-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1071.4354.860.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.510.1087.5081.960.380.06
Iowa St.B120.450.0971.4368.070.190.03
TowsonCAA0.510.0942.8653.19-0.070.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0742.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0742.8656.04-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0076.630.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.55-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0762.5046.900.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0762.5050.710.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0714.2924.15-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0757.1458.840.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0733.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.33-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0740.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.0750.0046.410.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0771.4368.980.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0017.13-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0712.5037.99-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0750.0056.740.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0787.5074.490.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0041.540.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.23-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0757.1444.890.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1458.940.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0775.0049.180.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.27-0.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.860.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0722.2238.49-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0750.0046.240.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0775.0054.490.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0018.64-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.910.0755.5647.890.10-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
Penn St.B100.450.0666.6746.420.15-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0614.2931.35-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.590.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8654.90-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0662.5043.220.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.37-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3333.36-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.94-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.350.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.400.0385.7157.450.280.01
CharlotteCUSA0.400.0371.4351.460.170.00
RichmondA100.600.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.450.0362.5040.460.11-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.510.0328.5741.52-0.22-0.01
BrownIvy0.510.0355.5646.970.06-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
RutgersB100.510.0385.7145.370.36-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3354.47-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.450.0387.5082.360.330.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.450.0375.0070.180.220.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0342.8637.34-0.06-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.450.0337.5031.23-0.11-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.510.0312.5030.39-0.38-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0342.8642.62-0.06-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.510.0333.3339.61-0.17-0.01
CornellIvy0.450.0328.5729.95-0.19-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.510.0387.5059.330.380.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.510.0340.0041.93-0.10-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
SyracuseACC0.450.0371.4366.700.190.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0038.050.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02