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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Campbell

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:308.0
Current RPI:308
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:326
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:274
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18308.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA59-57L0%0.0
11-21Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH54-59L0%0.0
11-24SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
11-28Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH79-73W100%0.0
11-30VMI (316.0)SCH66-65W100%0.0
12-9Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA70-76W100%0.0
12-13UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA80-60L0%0.0
12-19The Citadel (322.0)SCH101-82W100%0.0
12-22College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH68-86L0%0.0
12-28UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA106-83L0%0.0
12-31Winthrop (130.0)BSthA83-90W100%0.0
1-2Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH63-70L0%0.0
1-6Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA71-68L0%0.0
1-9Liberty (264.0)BSthA55-52L0%0.0
1-14Longwood (323.0)BSthH57-74L0%0.0
1-16Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH75-82L0%0.0
1-20Radford (192.0)BSthA78-66L0%0.0
1-27High Point (158.0)BSthH63-73L0%0.0
1-30Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA97-68L0%0.0
2-3Longwood (323.0)BSthA80-79L0%0.0
2-6UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH71-81L0%0.0
2-11Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH89-85W100%0.0
2-13Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA61-91W100%0.0
2-20Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA72-74W100%0.0
2-25Radford (192.0)BSthH56-60L0%0.0
2-27Winthrop (130.0)BSthH71-87L0%0.0
3-3Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthH69-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CampbellBSth26.5026.5033.3333.33-8.83-8.83
Gardner WebbBSth6.646.6444.4444.44-0.74-0.74
PresbyterianBSth4.864.8626.9226.92-2.24-2.24
WinthropBSth4.864.8670.3770.371.981.98
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.824.8258.3358.330.800.80
UNC AshevilleBSth4.814.8162.0762.071.161.16
LongwoodBSth4.774.7717.8617.86-3.06-3.06
RadfordBSth4.764.7644.4444.44-0.53-0.53
Charleston SouthernBSth4.734.7320.0020.00-2.84-2.84
High PointBSth3.103.1062.9662.960.800.80
LibertyBSth3.003.0032.1432.14-1.07-1.07
VMISC2.072.0723.0823.08-1.12-1.12
College of CharlestonCAA2.052.0551.7251.720.070.07
The CitadelSC2.052.0525.0025.00-1.02-1.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.012.0175.8675.861.041.04
Morgan St.MEAC1.921.9224.1424.14-0.99-0.99
CharlotteCUSA1.881.8843.7543.75-0.24-0.24
Savannah St.MEAC1.881.8846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.851.8522.2222.22-1.03-1.03
FurmanSC0.410.4151.6151.610.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.290.2965.6265.620.090.09
WoffordSC0.270.2743.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.260.2643.3343.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
DrexelCAA0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
ElonCAA0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.200.2084.3884.380.130.13
William & MaryCAA0.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
HofstraCAA0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0711.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
NavyPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00