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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Campbell

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:246.0
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:301
Current SOS:301
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:10-12
Expected Conf Record:10-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17246.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A102-65L0%0.0
11-19Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA82-66L0%0.0
11-21Samford (170.0)SCH53-66L0%0.0
11-26VMI (329.0)SCA53-67W100%0.0
12-2USC Upstate (229.0)ASunN80-73L0%0.0
12-3Colgate (294.0)PatN73-71W100%0.0
12-4The Citadel (282.0)SCA91-97W100%0.0
12-14UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH75-96L0%0.0
12-22Stetson (328.0)ASunH81-72W100%0.0
12-29Longwood (343.0)BSthA79-77L0%0.0
12-31Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH69-58W100%0.0
1-4Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH92-82W100%0.0
1-7Liberty (172.0)BSthA61-54L0%0.0
1-11Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA60-76W100%0.0
1-14Winthrop (70.0)BSthH63-72L0%0.0
1-19High Point (236.0)BSthH78-83L0%0.0
1-21UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA72-56L0%0.0
1-26Radford (227.0)BSthA61-78W100%0.0
1-28Liberty (172.0)BSthH40-72L0%0.0
2-1Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH68-80L0%0.0
2-4Winthrop (70.0)BSthA76-62L0%0.0
2-9Longwood (343.0)BSthH83-79W100%0.0
2-11Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA57-70W100%0.0
2-15Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA72-69L0%0.0
2-18UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH53-66L0%0.0
2-23High Point (236.0)BSthA59-49L0%0.0
2-25Radford (227.0)BSthH61-58W100%0.0
2-28Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH81-62W100%0.0
3-2UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthN79-81W100%0.0
3-3Radford (227.0)BSthN50-66W100%0.0
3-5Winthrop (70.0)BSthA76-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CampbellBSth26.7926.7945.6445.64-2.34-2.34
RadfordBSth6.046.0444.4444.44-0.67-0.67
WinthropBSth6.016.0177.7877.783.343.34
PresbyterianBSth5.975.9712.0012.00-4.54-4.54
UNC AshevilleBSth5.935.9370.3770.372.412.41
Charleston SouthernBSth4.534.5330.7730.77-1.74-1.74
Gardner WebbBSth4.514.5153.5753.570.320.32
LibertyBSth4.424.4251.8551.850.160.16
High PointBSth4.414.4138.4638.46-1.02-1.02
LongwoodBSth4.394.3911.5411.54-3.38-3.38
VMISC2.022.0214.8114.81-1.42-1.42
USC UpstateASun1.951.9544.4444.44-0.22-0.22
The CitadelSC1.891.8931.0331.03-0.72-0.72
StetsonASun1.781.7828.5728.57-0.76-0.76
SamfordSC1.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6983.8783.871.151.15
Morgan St.MEAC1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
ColgatePat1.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Oklahoma St.B121.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
FurmanSC0.540.5463.3363.330.150.15
UNC GreensboroSC0.470.4770.9770.970.200.20
Western CarolinaSC0.330.3323.3323.33-0.17-0.17
MercerSC0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
ElonCAA0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
WoffordSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
KansasB120.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00