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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Campbell

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:326.1
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:327
Current SOS:345
Current Record:6-14
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:2-10
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-14275.00.06%
11-15289.11.20%
10-16304.76.91%
9-17317.120.67%
8-18326.933.05%
7-19334.128.62%
6-20339.69.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Campbell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Savannah St. (337.3)MEACA59-57L0%0.0
11-21Morgan St. (321.9)MEACH54-59L0%0.0
11-24SIU Edwardsville (309.5)OVCA74-77W100%0.0
11-28Coastal Carolina (167.0)BSthH79-73W100%0.0
11-30VMI (330.9)SCH66-65W100%0.0
12-9Charlotte (231.6)CUSAA70-76W100%0.0
12-13UNC Asheville (139.6)BSthA80-60L0%0.0
12-19The Citadel (302.9)SCH101-82W100%0.0
12-22College of Charleston (101.0)CAAH68-86L0%0.0
12-28UNC Wilmington (66.2)CAAA106-83L0%0.0
12-31Winthrop (165.9)BSthA83-90W100%0.0
1-2Presbyterian (330.2)BSthH63-70L0%0.0
1-6Gardner Webb (208.9)BSthA71-68L0%0.0
1-9Liberty (278.4)BSthA55-52L0%0.0
1-14Longwood (326.4)BSthH57-74L0%0.0
1-16Charleston Southern (264.2)BSthH75-82L0%0.0
1-20Radford (162.2)BSthA78-66L0%0.0
1-27High Point (176.9)BSthH63-73L0%0.0
1-30Coastal Carolina (167.0)BSthA97-68L0%0.0
2-3Longwood (326.4)BSthA80-79L0%0.0
2-6UNC Asheville (139.6)BSthH0-021%-8.6
2-11Gardner Webb (208.9)BSthH0-039%-3.0
2-13Presbyterian (330.2)BSthA0-040%-2.9
2-20Charleston Southern (264.2)BSthA0-030%-5.7
2-25Radford (162.2)BSthH0-032%-5.1
2-27Winthrop (165.9)BSthH0-028%-6.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Campbell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Campbell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Campbell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CampbellBSth26.4926.5031.2530.07-9.93-10.56
PresbyterianBSth3.444.9222.2222.95-1.91-2.66
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.734.9258.8257.961.010.78
UNC AshevilleBSth3.364.9061.9063.650.801.34
Gardner WebbBSth3.384.8940.0044.61-0.68-0.53
RadfordBSth3.304.8950.0051.270.000.12
Charleston SouthernBSth3.234.8621.0524.65-1.87-2.46
LongwoodBSth5.624.8510.5316.41-4.43-3.26
WinthropBSth3.304.8568.4265.631.211.52
High PointBSth3.303.1155.5659.930.370.62
LibertyBSth3.313.0728.5730.42-1.42-1.20
The CitadelSC2.752.1436.8432.55-0.72-0.75
VMISC2.692.1417.6519.77-1.74-1.29
College of CharlestonCAA2.762.1160.0058.440.550.36
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.622.0673.6870.171.240.83
Morgan St.MEAC2.572.0016.6726.54-1.71-0.94
CharlotteCUSA2.561.9638.1043.59-0.61-0.25
Savannah St.MEAC2.501.9627.7830.84-1.11-0.75
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.501.9219.0523.68-1.55-1.01
FurmanSC0.500.4254.5553.780.050.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.380.3257.1457.920.050.05
WoffordSC0.330.3038.1043.38-0.08-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.310.2925.0029.91-0.16-0.11
DrexelCAA0.310.2514.2918.59-0.22-0.15
ElonCAA0.240.2454.5553.030.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.2147.6252.95-0.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.300.2170.0069.350.120.08
James MadisonCAA0.180.2169.5768.670.070.08
GeorgetownBE0.240.2056.5253.440.030.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.200.1830.0033.57-0.08-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.190.1823.8125.04-0.10-0.09
HamptonMEAC0.190.1860.0061.320.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1885.7184.560.130.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.300.1850.0046.870.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.250.1763.6457.320.070.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1526.3233.83-0.09-0.05
MercerSC0.130.1571.4370.590.060.06
SamfordSC0.130.1540.9143.36-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.190.1536.8437.31-0.05-0.04
RichmondA100.180.1452.3853.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.130.1440.0042.58-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.180.1422.7323.65-0.10-0.07
HofstraCAA0.120.1468.1865.430.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.120.1447.8348.71-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.120.1450.0048.260.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1426.0930.34-0.09-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1160.0056.080.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1152.1749.340.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1121.0523.70-0.08-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1126.0925.57-0.06-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.1126.3236.92-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.130.1139.1342.27-0.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.190.1168.1866.480.070.04
Penn St.B100.130.1147.8343.65-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1152.1747.260.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.1128.5734.73-0.08-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.1115.7922.52-0.05-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1127.2732.87-0.06-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1138.1047.48-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.120.1163.6459.440.030.02
VCUA100.120.1077.2776.770.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1045.4541.98-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1070.0068.920.050.04
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1054.5561.940.010.02
AuburnSEC0.130.0842.8637.22-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.130.0883.3380.130.090.05
NevadaMWC0.130.0857.8956.100.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.0845.4542.13-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0780.9579.160.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0757.1452.310.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0750.0054.850.000.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0763.6462.330.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0768.1863.240.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0765.2256.540.020.01
StanfordP120.060.0752.6347.730.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0776.1979.640.030.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0754.5555.190.010.01
NavyPat0.130.0765.2265.220.040.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.0745.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.0710.0014.87-0.11-0.05
ArmyPat0.060.0754.5555.990.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0777.2771.670.030.03
IowaB100.060.0781.8279.900.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0710.5325.36-0.05-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0759.0962.730.010.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0735.0036.61-0.04-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0734.7837.55-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.0761.9058.220.030.01
ColumbiaIvy0.120.0768.4265.480.040.02
DartmouthIvy0.120.0735.2933.93-0.04-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0738.1042.99-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.120.0736.3635.32-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0740.9139.23-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.120.0736.3635.58-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0747.6252.91-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.120.0750.0045.740.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.074.7614.00-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.060.0765.2266.710.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0714.2916.31-0.04-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0745.4547.97-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0781.8281.000.040.04
UMBCAE0.120.0720.8325.00-0.07-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0727.2730.42-0.05-0.03
DavidsonA100.120.0757.8955.420.020.01
Miami FLACC0.120.0780.9575.610.070.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0647.8350.56-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0630.0029.47-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.19-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0458.3354.130.010.00
BaylorB120.070.0476.1967.340.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0450.0056.530.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0436.3630.98-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.070.0481.8278.220.040.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0420.8320.11-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0461.9054.010.020.00
UtahP120.070.0472.7368.550.030.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0430.0034.84-0.03-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0435.0035.36-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0369.5770.030.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0365.0067.520.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0330.0028.62-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0373.9173.090.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0381.8281.000.040.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0357.1457.880.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0373.9170.210.030.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0345.0043.24-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0361.9062.050.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0352.3854.240.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0366.6763.490.020.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0368.1863.710.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0333.3339.26-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0368.7573.150.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0338.1033.39-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0375.0073.480.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0334.7841.60-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0325.0029.75-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0365.0060.810.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0366.6765.400.020.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0333.3332.42-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0347.8343.93-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0378.2673.090.030.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0381.8276.020.040.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0361.9063.360.020.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0375.0072.210.030.01
MichiganB100.060.0372.7367.970.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
UABCUSA0.060.0381.8278.320.040.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0314.2913.98-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0368.1862.170.020.01