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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:48.1
Current RPI:118
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:233
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-36.00.09%
27-47.80.33%
26-511.61.37%
25-615.83.97%
24-721.88.36%
23-828.613.31%
22-937.117.67%
21-1047.118.20%
20-1158.715.19%
19-1271.110.65%
18-1385.26.66%
17-1497.72.80%
16-15111.91.01%
15-16132.40.30%
14-17134.80.06%
13-18160.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Samford (297.5)SCH80-40W100%0.0
11-16IUPUI (270.3)SumH77-57W100%0.0
11-20Grambling St. (342.8)SWACH82-30W100%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (106.3)B12N88-79L0%0.0
11-25Missouri (156.6)SECN61-82W100%0.0
11-26BYU (41.5)WCCN85-87W100%0.0
12-2North Carolina St. (35.2)ACCH0-064%4.3
12-6North Florida (190.3)ASunH0-094%18.3
12-8IPFW (165.3)SumH0-090%15.2
12-10Arkansas St. (276.2)SBH0-097%22.9
12-13Vanderbilt (122.7)SECA0-064%4.2
12-20Notre Dame (62.8)ACCN0-048%-0.6
12-22Gardner Webb (127.0)BSthH0-091%16.3
12-31Minnesota (89.7)B10H0-073%7.5
1-3Michigan (42.6)B10H0-061%3.5
1-7Wisconsin (4.7)B10A0-014%-12.8
1-10Maryland (45.5)B10H0-063%4.1
1-17Penn St. (129.8)B10A0-069%6.0
1-21Illinois (44.9)B10A0-039%-3.4
1-24Iowa (43.7)B10H0-059%2.6
1-28Indiana (91.7)B10H0-074%7.8
1-31Northwestern (178.9)B10A0-081%10.5
2-4Ohio St. (33.6)B10H0-054%1.3
2-7Minnesota (89.7)B10A0-051%0.3
2-12Rutgers (232.7)B10A0-088%14.0
2-15Nebraska (83.8)B10H0-075%8.2
2-19Indiana (91.7)B10A0-052%0.6
2-26Rutgers (232.7)B10H0-096%21.2
3-1Ohio St. (33.6)B10A0-031%-5.9
3-4Michigan St. (31.1)B10A0-029%-6.7
3-7Illinois (44.9)B10H0-062%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1030.1426.1179.1765.8917.588.30
IndianaB100.003.8280.0057.720.000.59
RutgersB100.003.8150.0025.620.00-1.86
IllinoisB100.003.79100.0069.010.001.44
Ohio St.B100.003.79100.0075.780.001.95
MinnesotaB100.003.7650.0056.280.000.47
IowaB100.002.2966.6766.010.000.73
Penn St.B100.002.2883.3348.920.00-0.05
MichiganB100.002.2875.0067.050.000.78
Michigan St.B100.002.2880.0074.460.001.11
NorthwesternB100.002.2683.3339.410.00-0.48
MarylandB100.002.26100.0072.470.001.01
NebraskaB100.002.2575.0053.350.000.15
WisconsinB100.002.23100.0087.650.001.68
Notre DameACC1.041.7083.3369.690.690.67
MissouriSEC8.331.6950.0037.650.00-0.42
VanderbiltSEC0.001.69100.0054.350.000.15
IUPUISum8.331.6750.0031.260.00-0.63
IPFWSum0.001.6766.6764.570.000.49
North FloridaASun0.001.6640.0053.03-0.000.10
Grambling St.SWAC8.331.640.0021.82-8.33-0.92
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.64100.0065.800.000.52
Arkansas St.SB0.001.610.0037.28-0.00-0.41
BYUWCC8.331.6166.6770.042.780.65
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.6140.0060.32-0.000.33
Kansas St.B128.331.6140.0044.33-1.67-0.18
SamfordSC8.331.6140.0037.23-1.67-0.41
LouisvilleACC0.000.21100.0078.390.000.12
ClemsonACC0.000.1960.0050.620.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.170.0025.17-0.00-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1750.0050.720.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0041.21-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.1675.0044.850.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1666.6751.440.000.00
PittsburghACC1.390.1660.0057.910.280.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1680.0074.090.000.08
Oral RobertsSum0.830.1440.0038.51-0.17-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1450.0047.410.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0015.46-0.00-0.10
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1425.0039.34-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.1425.0027.48-0.00-0.06
CampbellBSth0.000.140.0035.96-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.690.1433.3329.78-0.23-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.14100.0045.140.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1440.0047.99-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1366.6746.480.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.13100.0083.320.000.09
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0035.47-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1250.0060.380.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0038.79-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3354.85-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1225.0026.73-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.110.0043.66-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.1175.0056.960.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1150.0051.380.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.1180.0058.550.000.02
George WashingtonA101.040.1175.0069.240.520.04
ArizonaP121.530.11100.0076.221.530.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1140.0038.97-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.690.1120.0039.02-0.42-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1140.0026.71-0.00-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1160.0056.890.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1166.6754.980.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0028.02-0.00-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1175.0068.660.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1180.0067.950.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0078.880.000.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1125.0033.76-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.110.0028.00-0.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0060.400.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1075.0061.130.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0073.330.000.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0916.6732.00-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.090.0029.60-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0033.90-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.38-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0966.6753.030.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0022.33-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.0933.3353.65-0.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB1.040.0966.6751.540.350.00
LSUSEC0.000.0860.0056.260.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0860.0068.290.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0825.0043.61-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.080.0040.20-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0063.120.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0875.0057.260.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0850.0052.250.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0825.0037.88-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.08100.0058.380.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0860.0062.400.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0840.0039.26-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.080.0027.48-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0079.690.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0860.0037.710.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0089.470.000.06
OregonP120.000.0860.0063.290.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.080.0028.25-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0075.980.000.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0825.0036.27-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.08100.0077.870.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0840.0054.85-0.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.830.0860.0040.420.17-0.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0075.130.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0065.590.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0816.6730.56-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0833.3338.66-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0816.6745.35-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0850.0052.540.000.00
UMKCWAC2.220.0820.0042.43-1.33-0.01
VMISC0.000.0825.0035.97-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0880.0077.100.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0880.0063.370.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0860.0039.990.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0880.0070.540.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0880.0071.410.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0840.0033.19-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.08100.0079.050.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0035.980.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.08100.0068.860.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.03-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.17-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.05-0.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.56-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0633.3363.17-0.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0053.73-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC1.880.0633.3346.51-0.63-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.830.0675.0056.110.420.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0028.400.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.17-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0052.42-0.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6741.200.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6748.060.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0044.27-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.65-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0023.49-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4356.020.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0052.530.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0025.280.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3351.25-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3332.18-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.100.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.260.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0660.0050.240.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0059.430.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.100.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0640.0045.07-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.05100.0062.000.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0550.0045.460.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.05100.0057.070.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0053.040.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.050.0030.59-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0533.3335.76-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW1.740.0540.0054.55-0.350.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3366.830.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0520.0030.56-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0516.6726.26-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0566.6759.540.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0566.6758.150.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0049.08-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0550.0054.380.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.830.0520.0034.53-0.50-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0533.3346.25-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0520.0040.88-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.050.0052.73-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0525.0045.71-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.05100.0078.730.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0580.0063.470.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0580.0072.400.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0067.79-0.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0063.970.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0580.0074.820.000.03
FordhamA100.000.050.0026.23-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0540.0046.34-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0580.0046.880.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0575.0062.620.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0533.3358.80-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0035.74-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0028.59-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0047.680.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0575.0045.180.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0560.0041.750.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0550.0048.990.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.53-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3334.34-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.460.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.42-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0057.930.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.54-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.880.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.770.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.24-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.160.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.85-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.53-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0340.0043.47-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC1.040.0383.3384.390.690.02
StanfordP120.000.0380.0071.340.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.700.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0360.0055.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0052.78-0.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.690.0333.3337.74-0.23-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
DrakeMVC0.830.0325.0023.91-0.42-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.500.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.04-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0043.27-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0320.0037.96-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.680.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.400.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0023.09-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0031.400.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.72-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.370.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.380.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0018.96-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8641.73-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.57-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0053.990.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.830.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0023.72-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.46-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0065.930.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.470.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.690.030.0016.54-0.69-0.02
USCP120.000.0350.0029.750.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.93-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0048.100.00-0.00