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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:59
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:206



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1255.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Samford (305.0)SCH80-40W100%0.0
11-16IUPUI (260.0)SumH77-57W100%0.0
11-20Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH82-30W100%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (100.0)B12N88-79L0%0.0
11-25Missouri (218.0)SECN61-82W100%0.0
11-26BYU (36.0)WCCN85-87W100%0.0
12-2North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH66-61W100%0.0
12-6North Florida (162.0)ASunH70-73L0%0.0
12-8IPFW (215.0)SumH63-43W100%0.0
12-10Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH87-46W100%0.0
12-13Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA81-71L0%0.0
12-20Notre Dame (16.0)ACCN94-63L0%0.0
12-22Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH84-89L0%0.0
12-31Minnesota (98.0)B10H72-68W100%0.0
1-3Michigan (81.0)B10H64-51W100%0.0
1-7Wisconsin (4.0)B10A62-55L0%0.0
1-10Maryland (13.0)B10H60-69L0%0.0
1-17Penn St. (108.0)B10A77-84W100%0.0
1-21Illinois (73.0)B10A66-57L0%0.0
1-24Iowa (43.0)B10H67-63W100%0.0
1-28Indiana (61.0)B10H83-67W100%0.0
1-31Northwestern (125.0)B10A60-68W100%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (41.0)B10H60-58W100%0.0
2-7Minnesota (98.0)B10A62-58L0%0.0
2-12Rutgers (178.0)B10A51-61W100%0.0
2-15Nebraska (158.0)B10H66-54W100%0.0
2-19Indiana (61.0)B10A63-67W100%0.0
2-26Rutgers (178.0)B10H92-85W100%0.0
3-1Ohio St. (41.0)B10A65-61L0%0.0
3-4Michigan St. (23.0)B10A72-66L0%0.0
3-7Illinois (73.0)B10H63-58W100%0.0
3-13Penn St. (108.0)B10N64-59W100%0.0
3-14Wisconsin (4.0)B10N71-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.1126.1161.1561.155.825.82
Penn St.B103.713.7156.2556.250.460.46
MinnesotaB103.683.6853.3353.330.250.25
WisconsinB103.663.6690.6290.622.972.97
RutgersB103.663.6633.3333.33-1.22-1.22
Ohio St.B103.663.6670.9770.971.531.53
IndianaB103.633.6364.5264.521.061.06
IllinoisB103.593.5960.0060.000.720.72
Michigan St.B102.262.2666.6766.670.750.75
MichiganB102.232.2350.0050.000.000.00
IowaB102.212.2167.7467.740.780.78
MarylandB102.212.2181.2581.251.381.38
NorthwesternB102.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB102.192.1943.3343.33-0.29-0.29
Notre DameACC1.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
MissouriSEC1.591.5926.6726.67-0.74-0.74
VanderbiltSEC1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
IUPUISum1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
IPFWSum1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
Grambling St.SWAC1.541.540.000.00-1.54-1.54
North Carolina St.ACC1.541.5462.5062.500.380.38
Arkansas St.SB1.521.5237.0437.04-0.39-0.39
BYUWCC1.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
Gardner WebbBSth1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
Kansas St.B121.521.5245.1645.16-0.15-0.15
SamfordSC1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
LouisvilleACC0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
DukeACC0.180.1887.8887.880.140.14
ClemsonACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1564.7164.710.040.04
CampbellBSth0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.140.1490.6290.620.110.11
South DakotaSum0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1318.7518.75-0.08-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
FurmanSC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
BaylorB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
OklahomaB120.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
ArizonaP120.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0729.6329.63-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.040.0458.8258.820.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
USCP120.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01