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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:19.0
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:52
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-719.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH109-65W100%0.0
11-14Villanova (1.0)BEH76-79L0%0.0
11-18Georgia St. (104.0)SBH64-56W100%0.0
11-22Utah St. (181.0)MWCN64-85W100%0.0
11-23Auburn (113.0)SECN96-71W100%0.0
11-26NJIT (290.0)ASunH79-68W100%0.0
11-30Louisville (7.0)ACCA71-64L0%0.0
12-3Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH90-56W100%0.0
12-6Arizona St. (125.0)P12N64-97W100%0.0
12-10Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH77-53W100%0.0
12-17Notre Dame (23.0)ACCN86-81W100%0.0
12-19Western Illinois (325.0)SumH82-50W100%0.0
12-21Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH91-45W100%0.0
12-28Iowa (81.0)B10H89-67W100%0.0
1-1Minnesota (20.0)B10H82-91L0%0.0
1-5Ohio St. (90.0)B10A75-76W100%0.0
1-8Wisconsin (35.0)B10H66-55W100%0.0
1-12Iowa (81.0)B10A83-78L0%0.0
1-17Illinois (62.0)B10H91-68W100%0.0
1-21Penn St. (101.0)B10H77-52W100%0.0
1-24Michigan St. (51.0)B10A73-84W100%0.0
1-29Nebraska (107.0)B10A83-80L0%0.0
2-1Northwestern (50.0)B10H80-59W100%0.0
2-4Maryland (36.0)B10A72-73W100%0.0
2-9Indiana (79.0)B10A64-69W100%0.0
2-14Rutgers (177.0)B10H74-55W100%0.0
2-18Michigan St. (51.0)B10H80-63W100%0.0
2-21Penn St. (101.0)B10A70-74W100%0.0
2-25Michigan (25.0)B10A82-70L0%0.0
2-28Indiana (79.0)B10H86-75W100%0.0
3-5Northwestern (50.0)B10A65-69W100%0.0
3-10Michigan (25.0)B10N70-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.0726.0777.5477.5414.3614.36
IndianaB103.793.7958.0658.060.610.61
MichiganB103.773.7766.6766.671.261.26
NorthwesternB103.753.7571.8871.881.641.64
Penn St.B103.733.7348.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Michigan St.B103.723.7261.2961.290.840.84
IowaB103.703.7056.6756.670.490.49
WisconsinB102.302.3075.7675.761.181.18
MinnesotaB102.282.2871.8871.881.001.00
RutgersB102.252.2545.1645.16-0.22-0.22
NebraskaB102.252.2534.4834.48-0.70-0.70
IllinoisB102.252.2556.6756.670.300.30
MarylandB102.182.1876.6776.671.161.16
Ohio St.B102.162.1654.8454.840.210.21
Notre DameACC1.731.7375.7675.760.890.89
LouisvilleACC1.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
NJITASun1.641.6432.1432.14-0.59-0.59
Georgia St.SB1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
Utah St.MWC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
AuburnSEC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
VillanovaBE1.591.5990.9190.911.301.30
Arizona St.P121.561.5646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Cleveland St.Horz1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
McNeese St.Slnd1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
Morehead St.OVC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Norfolk St.MEAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum1.561.5624.0024.00-0.81-0.81
VirginiaACC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
DukeACC0.190.1977.1477.140.100.10
St. John'sBE0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
UCLAP120.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Florida St.ACC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
South DakotaSum0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
FurmanSC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01