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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:9.2
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:79
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-01.30.64%
28-11.94.11%
27-22.910.80%
26-34.419.16%
25-46.822.22%
24-510.119.48%
23-614.612.93%
22-720.56.71%
21-827.32.80%
20-935.00.94%
19-1044.20.13%
18-1158.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10SIU Edwardsville (287.7)OVCH105-74W100%0.0
11-12Chicago St. (324.5)WACH111-42W100%0.0
11-14Marquette (88.1)BEA71-86W100%0.0
11-18Fairfield (168.0)MAACH106-64W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee (96.3)SECN0-086%13.2
11-28Louisville (28.0)ACCH0-079%9.6
12-1Maryland (25.7)B10A0-063%3.9
12-3Northwestern (80.7)B10H0-089%15.0
12-7Valparaiso (84.9)MVCH0-095%19.7
12-10IUPUI (279.8)HorzH0-0100%31.9
12-16Butler (79.5)BEN0-084%12.0
12-21Tennessee St. (185.2)OVCH0-099%27.6
12-30Lipscomb (199.1)ASunH0-099%27.8
1-3Rutgers (181.4)B10H0-097%21.8
1-6Nebraska (165.0)B10H0-096%21.6
1-9Michigan (60.4)B10A0-072%6.9
1-13Minnesota (39.3)B10A0-063%4.1
1-16Wisconsin (36.5)B10H0-079%9.6
1-20Iowa (98.1)B10A0-078%9.5
1-25Michigan (60.4)B10H0-086%12.9
1-28Indiana (137.3)B10A0-086%13.1
1-31Maryland (25.7)B10H0-080%9.9
2-3Rutgers (181.4)B10A0-091%15.8
2-7Ohio St. (85.4)B10H0-090%15.3
2-10Michigan St. (23.7)B10A0-051%0.2
2-15Wisconsin (36.5)B10A0-062%3.6
2-18Penn St. (87.4)B10H0-091%16.4
2-22Illinois (84.8)B10A0-080%9.9
2-25Minnesota (39.3)B10H0-080%10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1033.8526.15100.0085.0133.8518.31
WisconsinB100.004.0966.6769.640.001.61
MarylandB100.004.09100.0074.920.002.04
MichiganB100.004.06100.0064.710.001.20
MinnesotaB100.004.03100.0074.690.001.99
RutgersB100.004.03100.0049.770.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.002.5475.0056.630.000.34
IowaB101.562.45100.0059.561.560.47
Michigan St.B100.002.4550.0078.840.001.41
NebraskaB100.002.4566.6741.370.00-0.42
IllinoisB100.002.42100.0060.580.000.51
Ohio St.B100.002.42100.0061.650.000.56
IndianaB100.002.4233.3342.170.00-0.38
Penn St.B100.002.40100.0062.180.000.58
Chicago St.WAC12.501.900.007.96-12.50-1.60
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC12.501.8850.0031.050.00-0.71
MarquetteBE12.501.87100.0052.7512.500.10
ButlerBE0.001.8575.0053.670.000.14
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.820.0048.150.00-0.07
LipscombASun0.001.7933.3351.140.000.04
ValparaisoMVC2.081.78100.0061.712.080.42
TennesseeSEC0.001.76100.0049.640.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.001.750.0033.430.00-0.58
LouisvilleACC0.001.75100.0068.510.000.65
FairfieldMAAC12.501.72100.0056.8612.500.24
Seton HallBE0.000.24100.0067.950.000.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2233.3341.010.00-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.21100.0067.460.000.07
DePaulBE0.000.2133.3331.290.00-0.08
BelmontOVC0.000.1975.0071.560.000.08
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1933.3336.610.00-0.05
XavierBE0.000.18100.0078.990.000.10
ProvidenceBE0.000.1875.0064.570.000.05
DrakeMVC0.000.1850.0035.740.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.160.0029.620.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.000.160.0036.690.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1650.0039.640.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.15100.0063.830.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1533.3333.580.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.15100.0054.590.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.15100.0078.160.000.08
Stony BrookAE0.000.150.0047.400.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.150.0044.950.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.130.0031.380.00-0.05
StetsonASun2.080.1333.3333.62-0.69-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.1266.6765.630.000.04
NJITASun0.000.1233.3333.210.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.120.0029.290.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.120.0027.250.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.000.1275.0048.770.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.120.0039.010.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.120.0044.830.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.12100.0060.010.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0058.070.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0082.960.000.08
Austin PeayOVC0.000.120.0029.880.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1225.0050.070.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0061.320.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.12100.0075.130.000.06
Notre DameACC1.560.12100.0073.731.560.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.12100.0059.250.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0022.610.00-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1250.0051.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.11100.0068.200.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0074.140.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0052.380.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0068.280.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.090.0041.210.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.09100.0053.240.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0066.530.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.090.0036.490.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.09100.0038.710.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0050.450.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0950.0069.320.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC1.560.0966.6763.220.520.02
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.090.0048.610.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.090.0043.690.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0933.3331.840.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.520.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3343.810.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0966.6755.210.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0925.0035.000.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.090.0037.060.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0062.240.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0071.180.000.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.580.000.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0022.840.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.090.0030.230.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0023.260.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0833.3334.560.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0074.500.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0036.830.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0766.6773.200.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.06100.0070.960.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.060.0061.460.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
Loyola MDPat2.080.060.0038.21-2.08-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0633.3327.100.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0061.110.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0625.0040.490.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0042.730.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3354.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0350.0052.870.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.120.0325.0047.80-1.56-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
PennIvy2.080.0333.3349.35-0.69-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.030.0037.310.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
UtahP120.000.03100.0067.160.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0325.0038.080.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01