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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:65.0
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:45
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:1.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-826.50.04%
22-931.80.68%
21-1040.65.69%
20-1150.420.13%
19-1261.532.64%
18-1374.028.03%
17-1487.610.96%
16-15100.21.72%
15-16111.30.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northern Illinois (337.4)MACH96-34W100%0.0
11-14High Point (283.4)BSthH67-65W100%0.0
11-17Iona (46.0)MAACN90-91W100%0.0
11-18Temple (24.4)A10N85-77W100%0.0
11-20Alabama (30.4)SECN65-56L0%0.0
11-23Western Michigan (174.1)MACH80-37W100%0.0
11-26Coppin St. (214.5)MEACH78-57W100%0.0
11-29Miami FL (64.4)ACCH76-65W100%0.0
12-3Xavier (55.8)A10A66-63L0%0.0
12-7Western Carolina (259.9)SCH65-60W100%0.0
12-10Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACH61-36W100%0.0
12-17Butler (143.2)HorzN67-65L0%0.0
12-20IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)SumH81-56W100%0.0
12-28Iowa (139.5)B10A76-79W100%0.0
12-31Illinois (39.4)B10H75-60W100%0.0
1-5Penn St. (163.2)B10A65-45L0%0.0
1-8Minnesota (68.5)B10A66-79W100%0.0
1-12Wisconsin (21.8)B10H62-67L0%0.0
1-17Iowa (139.5)B10H75-68W100%0.0
1-21Michigan St. (8.2)B10A83-58L0%0.0
1-24Michigan (25.3)B10H64-66L0%0.0
1-28Northwestern (66.2)B10A56-58W100%0.0
2-4Indiana (20.6)B10H61-78L0%0.0
2-7Ohio St. (3.4)B10A0-07%-16.4
2-12Northwestern (66.2)B10H0-073%6.8
2-15Illinois (39.4)B10A0-040%-2.7
2-19Michigan St. (8.2)B10H0-033%-4.8
2-22Nebraska (117.6)B10H0-084%10.7
2-25Michigan (25.3)B10A0-035%-4.2
2-29Penn St. (163.2)B10H0-087%12.2
3-4Indiana (20.6)B10A0-019%-9.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.2226.2160.4057.025.453.68
IowaB104.793.9559.0952.850.870.23
IndianaB102.643.9473.9174.771.261.95
MichiganB102.603.9471.4365.691.111.24
Penn St.B102.603.9139.1337.43-0.56-0.98
NorthwesternB102.463.9165.0058.130.740.64
IllinoisB102.523.8976.1966.811.321.31
Michigan St.B102.603.8975.0072.161.301.72
Ohio St.B100.422.3886.9685.200.311.68
MinnesotaB102.702.3872.7363.351.230.64
WisconsinB102.562.3573.9173.111.221.09
NebraskaB100.422.3552.3847.760.02-0.11
Eastern MichiganMAC2.331.7842.8639.71-0.33-0.37
Western MichiganMAC2.381.7842.8644.44-0.34-0.20
Northern IllinoisMAC2.361.775.567.58-2.10-1.50
XavierA102.271.7063.6462.490.620.42
ButlerHorz2.271.6947.8349.11-0.10-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum2.311.6936.8436.72-0.61-0.45
TempleA102.221.6780.9577.651.380.92
Coppin St.MEAC2.221.6644.4451.89-0.250.06
IonaMAAC2.221.6482.6182.871.451.08
AlabamaSEC2.171.6166.6768.030.720.58
High PointBSth2.171.6133.3334.01-0.72-0.52
Miami FLACC2.171.6168.4262.170.800.39
Western CarolinaSC2.171.6136.3638.57-0.59-0.37
Central MichiganMAC0.250.2528.5734.20-0.11-0.08
DukeACC0.200.2286.3683.090.150.14
Ball St.MAC0.200.1955.0057.410.020.03
ToledoMAC0.210.1938.1040.81-0.05-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.240.1962.5062.490.060.05
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.290.1956.5257.720.040.03
MarylandACC0.250.1959.0950.820.050.00
GonzagaWCC0.240.1981.8281.490.150.12
OaklandSum0.200.1748.0050.21-0.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.260.1647.6248.82-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.1473.9175.490.100.07
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.150.1434.7835.20-0.05-0.04
CharlotteA100.210.1450.0049.450.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1465.2263.610.050.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1434.7838.77-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.140.148.7013.10-0.12-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.1452.3857.860.010.02
Miami OHMAC0.150.1430.0034.15-0.06-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1470.8364.420.060.04
North CarolinaACC0.150.1486.9683.160.110.09
Chicago St.GWC0.140.144.769.95-0.13-0.11
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1327.2735.02-0.08-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1331.8242.13-0.06-0.02
CreightonMVC0.140.1387.5085.410.110.09
Iowa St.B120.190.1373.9168.430.090.05
MississippiSEC0.150.1363.6456.710.040.02
DaytonA100.190.1360.8760.960.040.03
DuquesneA100.140.1359.0956.350.030.02
RichmondA100.140.1350.0048.490.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.140.1395.8392.570.130.11
HowardMEAC0.100.1218.1822.22-0.07-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1252.6348.410.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1161.9063.520.040.03
CampbellBSth0.140.1156.0055.650.020.01
WoffordSC0.190.1159.0957.930.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.150.1171.4369.050.070.04
BuffaloMAC0.160.1168.4266.450.060.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1130.0030.06-0.06-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.150.1135.0039.29-0.04-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.1172.7371.710.020.05
Georgia TechACC0.160.1139.1342.12-0.03-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.150.1169.5771.510.060.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1130.4326.44-0.04-0.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1124.0024.86-0.07-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.100.1169.5765.150.040.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1145.4545.70-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.190.1147.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1159.0957.280.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.140.1135.0039.38-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.1119.0521.29-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.100.1160.0059.060.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.1166.6768.050.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.1150.0051.530.000.00
CornellIvy0.090.1036.8441.45-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.160.0936.3638.48-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0925.0037.58-0.05-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0926.3228.83-0.03-0.04
IUPUISum0.160.0934.7835.50-0.05-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0980.7780.750.060.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.150.0968.1867.640.050.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0940.9143.66-0.03-0.01
WinthropBSth0.150.0934.7834.61-0.05-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.0977.2773.450.060.04
TowsonCAA0.110.094.005.26-0.10-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.050.0947.8343.66-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.0833.3337.25-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0838.8943.93-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0868.1867.910.020.03
OhioMAC0.110.0881.8277.200.070.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0834.7832.06-0.05-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.0833.3334.47-0.04-0.03
NC GreensboroSC0.150.0834.7833.46-0.05-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.150.0842.8641.13-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0826.3229.71-0.02-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0873.9168.580.030.03
VirginiaACC0.100.0881.8276.800.070.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0820.8320.60-0.03-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0840.9139.56-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0856.5255.200.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0817.6527.10-0.06-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0843.4844.25-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.100.0840.9134.50-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.100.0870.8368.820.040.03
St. LouisA100.100.0877.2777.670.050.04
ClemsonACC0.140.0850.0048.360.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0862.5061.500.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0854.5554.300.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0850.0058.160.000.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.090.0821.7424.58-0.05-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0819.0524.61-0.03-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0841.6740.61-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.140.0852.1750.090.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0845.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.090.0870.8371.050.040.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0826.0928.60-0.04-0.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.090.0882.6181.440.060.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0019.96-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0668.1869.680.040.03
Southern UtahSum0.110.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0672.2271.970.020.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0660.8759.760.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.069.5211.44-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0659.0959.720.020.01
DePaulBE0.100.0650.0042.830.00-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0645.0044.15-0.00-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0650.0047.590.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0633.3335.26-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0525.0025.13-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0517.3924.41-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0556.5248.810.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0590.9183.850.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0517.3919.81-0.06-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0581.8280.430.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0534.7832.08-0.01-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0545.4541.20-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0573.9174.910.020.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0568.0069.070.030.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0534.7833.43-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0578.2672.340.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0537.5041.54-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0537.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.2263.740.020.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0545.4545.55-0.01-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0560.8759.050.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0569.5765.870.040.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0582.6180.420.060.03
ColgatePat0.090.0530.4329.50-0.04-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0582.6177.630.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
BrownIvy0.090.0527.2723.80-0.04-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0527.7829.87-0.04-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0517.3920.97-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.060.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.6416.35-0.03-0.04
MissouriB120.050.0591.3087.180.040.04
Notre DameBE0.050.0565.2262.650.010.01
South FloridaBE0.050.0554.5548.600.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0531.8231.31-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0338.1042.78-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.060.0368.1863.990.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0335.2939.85-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0359.0954.700.010.00
San Jose St.WAC0.060.0327.2726.95-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0310.0014.93-0.05-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0051.730.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.05-0.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.21-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0354.5557.690.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0316.6723.02-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.000.0369.5764.530.000.01
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.000.0357.1449.540.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0378.2672.660.030.01
NevadaWAC0.000.0380.9576.420.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.30-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0360.8761.370.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0360.0062.490.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.03-0.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.000.020.01
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0319.0525.52-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0378.2678.390.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.000.0354.5556.090.000.00