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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:15.0
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:37
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-815.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH81-40W100%0.0
11-15Vermont (126.0)AEH107-79W100%0.0
11-18Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH96-61W100%0.0
11-21Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAN39-61W100%0.0
11-22Florida (55.0)SECN70-85W100%0.0
11-28Lehigh (168.0)PatH77-55W100%0.0
12-1Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA59-72W100%0.0
12-5New Mexico (141.0)MWCH70-58W100%0.0
12-7IUPUI (189.0)SumH80-53W100%0.0
12-9Howard (328.0)MEACH93-55W100%0.0
12-12Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH95-64W100%0.0
12-19Butler (57.0)BEN68-74L0%0.0
12-22Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH68-55W100%0.0
12-29Wisconsin (43.0)B10A55-61W100%0.0
1-2Iowa (28.0)B10H63-70L0%0.0
1-7Michigan (56.0)B10H87-70W100%0.0
1-10Illinois (149.0)B10A84-70L0%0.0
1-13Penn St. (125.0)B10H74-57W100%0.0
1-18Rutgers (294.0)B10A57-107W100%0.0
1-21Ohio St. (74.0)B10H75-64W100%0.0
1-24Iowa (28.0)B10A83-71L0%0.0
1-27Minnesota (257.0)B10A64-68W100%0.0
1-30Nebraska (165.0)B10H89-74W100%0.0
2-6Maryland (14.0)B10A72-61L0%0.0
2-9Michigan St. (12.0)B10H82-81W100%0.0
2-13Michigan (56.0)B10A61-56L0%0.0
2-16Northwestern (115.0)B10H71-61W100%0.0
2-20Indiana (24.0)B10A77-73L0%0.0
2-27Maryland (14.0)B10H83-79W100%0.0
3-1Nebraska (165.0)B10A62-81W100%0.0
3-6Wisconsin (43.0)B10H91-80W100%0.0
3-11Illinois (149.0)B10N89-58W100%0.0
3-12Michigan (56.0)B10N76-59W100%0.0
3-13Michigan St. (12.0)B10N66-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.1926.1976.8176.8114.0414.04
MichiganB105.035.0366.6766.671.681.68
Michigan St.B103.633.6387.5087.502.722.72
MarylandB103.613.6176.6776.671.931.93
IllinoisB103.583.5843.7543.75-0.45-0.45
NebraskaB103.583.5850.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB103.573.5766.6766.671.191.19
IowaB103.573.5765.5265.521.111.11
IndianaB102.192.1977.4277.421.201.20
Ohio St.B102.172.1762.5062.500.540.54
Penn St.B102.172.1751.6151.610.070.07
RutgersB102.162.1620.0020.00-1.30-1.30
NorthwesternB102.152.1564.5264.520.620.62
MinnesotaB102.142.1426.6726.67-1.00-1.00
FloridaSEC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Youngstown St.Horz1.541.5431.0331.03-0.58-0.58
HowardMEAC1.521.5234.4834.48-0.47-0.47
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.521.5233.3333.33-0.51-0.51
VanderbiltSEC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
ButlerBE1.491.4966.6766.670.500.50
IUPUISum1.491.4940.0040.00-0.30-0.30
VermontAE1.491.4962.5062.500.370.37
Incarnate WordSlnd1.471.4758.3358.330.250.25
LehighPat1.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
New MexicoMWC1.471.4754.8454.840.140.14
Old DominionCUSA1.471.4764.7164.710.430.43
PittsburghACC1.471.4766.6766.670.490.49
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1816.6716.67-0.12-0.12
MarquetteBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Notre DameACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
CreightonBE0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1429.1729.17-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
South DakotaSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Stony BrookAE0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Miami FLACC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
KentuckySEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1076.6776.670.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
NavyPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
YaleIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
UMKCWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
HartfordAE0.040.0428.1228.12-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0479.4179.410.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0484.3884.380.030.03
North FloridaASun0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02