Purdue

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	136.0
Current RPI:	136
Expected SOS:	69
Current SOS:	69
Current Record:	15-17
Expected Record:	15-17
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-1
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	234
Expected OOC SOS:	254

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-17	136.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	65-70	L	0%
11-11	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	83-54	W	100%
11-15	Villanova (52.0)	BE	N	81-89	L	0%
11-16	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	N	58-66	L	0%
11-21	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	66-40	W	100%
11-28	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	61-73	W	100%
12-1	Xavier (87.0)	A10	H	57-63	L	0%
12-4	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	72-39	W	100%
12-8	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	47-44	L	0%
12-15	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	N	81-68	L	0%
12-18	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	H	66-56	W	100%
12-29	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	73-66	W	100%
1-2	Illinois (40.0)	B10	H	68-61	W	100%
1-5	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	84-61	L	0%
1-8	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	H	64-74	L	0%
1-13	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	H	60-42	W	100%
1-16	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	56-65	W	100%
1-19	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	H	79-52	W	100%
1-24	Michigan (20.0)	B10	A	68-53	L	0%
1-27	Iowa (79.0)	B10	H	65-62	W	100%
1-30	Indiana (8.0)	B10	H	60-97	L	0%
2-2	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	75-60	L	0%
2-5	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	49-58	W	100%
2-9	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	H	65-78	L	0%
2-13	Illinois (40.0)	B10	A	79-59	L	0%
2-16	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	83-55	L	0%
2-24	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	H	74-43	W	100%
2-27	Iowa (79.0)	B10	A	58-48	L	0%
3-3	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	56-69	W	100%
3-6	Michigan (20.0)	B10	H	75-80	L	0%
3-9	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	H	89-73	W	100%
3-14	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	N	55-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Purdue	B10	26.17	26.17	42.36	42.36	-4.00	-4.00
Michigan	B10	3.92	3.92	76.67	76.67	2.09	2.09
Indiana	B10	3.88	3.88	80.65	80.65	2.38	2.38
Iowa	B10	3.87	3.87	64.52	64.52	1.12	1.12
Penn St.	B10	3.87	3.87	34.48	34.48	-1.20	-1.20
Nebraska	B10	3.82	3.82	45.16	45.16	-0.37	-0.37
Northwestern	B10	3.82	3.82	40.00	40.00	-0.76	-0.76
Illinois	B10	3.82	3.82	64.52	64.52	1.11	1.11
Michigan St.	B10	3.82	3.82	73.33	73.33	1.78	1.78
Ohio St.	B10	2.43	2.43	78.12	78.12	1.37	1.37
Wisconsin	B10	2.41	2.41	69.70	69.70	0.95	0.95
Minnesota	B10	2.35	2.35	64.52	64.52	0.68	0.68
Hofstra	CAA	1.67	1.67	20.00	20.00	-1.00	-1.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.67	1.67	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
William & Mary	CAA	1.67	1.67	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Ball St.	MAC	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	1.61	1.61	83.87	83.87	1.09	1.09
West Virginia	B12	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Notre Dame	BE	1.59	1.59	72.73	72.73	0.72	0.72
Villanova	BE	1.59	1.59	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Clemson	ACC	1.56	1.56	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Lamar	Slnd	1.56	1.56	10.00	10.00	-1.25	-1.25
Oregon St.	P12	1.56	1.56	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Xavier	A10	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Central Michigan	MAC	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Butler	A10	0.22	0.22	75.76	75.76	0.11	0.11
Towson	CAA	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.16	0.16	58.82	58.82	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Southern California	P12	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	93.75	93.75	0.08	0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01