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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:14.6
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:62
Current Record:20-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-57.99.77%
25-610.929.41%
24-714.634.97%
23-819.319.44%
22-925.55.69%
21-1036.00.68%
20-1151.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACH81-40W100%0.0
11-15Vermont (160.9)AEH107-79W100%0.0
11-18Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndH96-61W100%0.0
11-21Old Dominion (139.5)CUSAN39-61W100%0.0
11-22Florida (23.6)SECN70-85W100%0.0
11-28Lehigh (196.0)PatH77-55W100%0.0
12-1Pittsburgh (46.9)ACCA59-72W100%0.0
12-5New Mexico (104.1)MWCH70-58W100%0.0
12-7IUPUI (178.2)SumH80-53W100%0.0
12-9Howard (297.1)MEACH93-55W100%0.0
12-12Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzH95-64W100%0.0
12-19Butler (48.7)BEN68-74L0%0.0
12-22Vanderbilt (53.5)SECH68-55W100%0.0
12-29Wisconsin (59.0)B10A55-61W100%0.0
1-2Iowa (7.4)B10H63-70L0%0.0
1-7Michigan (47.1)B10H87-70W100%0.0
1-10Illinois (157.5)B10A84-70L0%0.0
1-13Penn St. (132.8)B10H74-57W100%0.0
1-18Rutgers (281.5)B10A57-107W100%0.0
1-21Ohio St. (90.9)B10H75-64W100%0.0
1-24Iowa (7.4)B10A83-71L0%0.0
1-27Minnesota (247.2)B10A64-68W100%0.0
1-30Nebraska (149.4)B10H89-74W100%0.0
2-6Maryland (5.8)B10A72-61L0%0.0
2-9Michigan St. (18.9)B10H82-81W100%0.0
2-13Michigan (47.1)B10A0-056%1.5
2-16Northwestern (120.4)B10H0-090%13.7
2-20Indiana (39.1)B10A0-045%-1.4
2-27Maryland (5.8)B10H0-067%4.8
3-1Nebraska (149.4)B10A0-075%7.2
3-6Wisconsin (59.0)B10H0-085%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.1626.1079.2177.5415.2814.38
MichiganB102.503.8473.9169.901.201.53
MarylandB102.423.8186.9684.911.792.66
WisconsinB102.293.7865.2260.380.700.78
IowaB104.333.7880.9579.132.682.20
NebraskaB102.423.7554.1753.410.200.26
Penn St.B102.382.2752.1748.310.10-0.08
IndianaB100.422.2779.1774.690.241.12
Michigan St.B102.552.2783.3384.301.701.56
RutgersB102.462.2522.7321.04-1.34-1.30
NorthwesternB100.502.2564.0063.810.140.62
Ohio St.B102.342.2262.5057.390.580.33
IllinoisB102.422.2243.4842.25-0.32-0.34
MinnesotaB102.292.2226.0928.17-1.09-0.97
FloridaSEC2.161.7469.5768.540.850.65
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.091.6730.4334.26-0.82-0.53
HowardMEAC2.091.6738.1040.37-0.50-0.32
Youngstown St.Horz2.041.6731.8233.50-0.74-0.55
VanderbiltSEC2.041.6660.8761.960.440.40
ButlerBE2.041.6469.5767.920.800.59
IUPUISum2.041.6441.6741.14-0.34-0.29
VermontAE2.041.6454.1756.760.170.22
Incarnate WordSlnd2.001.6156.2554.230.250.14
LehighPat2.001.6140.9144.41-0.36-0.18
New MexicoMWC2.001.6160.8762.710.430.41
Old DominionCUSA2.001.6159.0964.910.360.48
PittsburghACC2.001.6176.1970.051.050.65
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.260.2229.1733.74-0.11-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.199.0912.25-0.17-0.14
MarquetteBE0.210.1964.0057.920.060.03
CreightonBE0.170.1964.0062.040.050.04
St. John'sBE0.230.1625.0023.45-0.11-0.09
Notre DameACC0.220.1670.8367.820.090.06
GeorgetownBE0.120.1656.0052.840.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.210.1627.7829.16-0.09-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.170.1650.0048.130.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.1414.2920.65-0.12-0.08
SyracuseACC0.130.1466.6762.560.040.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1433.3335.05-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1359.0959.650.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1373.9172.580.060.06
Miami FLACC0.170.1382.6177.520.110.07
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1334.7840.89-0.05-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.1358.3357.220.020.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1375.0072.630.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.1250.0049.770.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1235.0034.80-0.03-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1276.1972.310.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1225.0030.04-0.07-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1143.4850.66-0.020.00
RiceCUSA0.100.1128.5729.66-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.170.1147.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.1121.7422.74-0.05-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1140.0045.48-0.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.130.1181.8282.620.080.07
Kent St.MAC0.170.1165.2260.580.050.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.1152.0048.860.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.090.1154.5556.010.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.170.1169.5764.900.070.03
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1124.0024.57-0.09-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.040.1183.3378.400.030.06
XavierBE0.080.1187.5081.860.060.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.1141.6739.91-0.01-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1163.6462.150.030.03
South DakotaSum0.120.1141.6741.24-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.120.1134.7835.64-0.04-0.03
DePaulBE0.120.1133.3334.01-0.04-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.1150.0051.190.000.00
TempleAmer0.120.1163.6459.710.030.02
VillanovaBE0.080.1187.5086.870.060.08
ProvidenceBE0.160.1172.0069.150.070.04
MissouriSEC0.080.1033.3330.27-0.03-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.109.0917.14-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.120.1039.1335.44-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.0918.1821.12-0.10-0.05
AmericanPat0.130.0929.1731.18-0.05-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.0859.0961.310.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.0886.9682.580.070.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0814.2924.86-0.07-0.04
BucknellPat0.130.0852.1754.960.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0866.6765.220.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.090.0833.3335.16-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.090.0864.0064.480.020.02
VirginiaACC0.130.0883.3378.470.090.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0831.8236.14-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0825.0033.20-0.04-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0838.1037.70-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0850.0049.490.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0824.0026.33-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0819.0525.90-0.06-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0852.1754.140.000.01
YaleIvy0.130.0873.6874.680.060.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.085.007.22-0.08-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.090.0879.1776.070.050.04
OaklandHorz0.130.0868.0067.990.050.03
ClemsonACC0.130.0858.3358.370.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.0837.5037.41-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0858.3358.480.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0870.8368.100.040.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.0873.9174.700.060.04
UMKCWAC0.130.0828.5732.73-0.06-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.130.0829.1726.73-0.05-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.090.0847.3749.90-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0820.8324.09-0.05-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.130.0856.5257.000.020.01
DaytonA100.130.0886.9682.150.100.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.0845.4547.54-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.130.0870.8368.000.050.03
IPFWSum0.040.0870.8368.590.020.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0839.1341.11-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.080.0866.6762.210.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.084.357.72-0.08-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0872.0071.540.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.0840.0043.42-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0864.0064.110.020.02
VMISC0.120.0815.0016.73-0.09-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0843.4837.81-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.0025.67-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.080.0860.8760.530.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0859.0955.220.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0862.5059.050.020.01
MississippiSEC0.120.0862.5058.920.030.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0820.0022.26-0.02-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0875.0075.330.040.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0852.1755.090.000.01
VCUA100.090.0873.9174.060.040.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0630.0029.28-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0672.2275.620.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0617.6529.03-0.04-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0627.7834.45-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.040.0654.1754.290.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0656.0056.490.010.01
ColgatePat0.040.0643.4844.89-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.040.0641.6739.62-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0620.8321.68-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.18-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0628.0030.70-0.04-0.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0635.0038.52-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1751.980.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0681.8283.030.060.04
Wright St.Horz0.040.0656.5257.020.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0544.0045.35-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0550.0051.280.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0545.4554.16-0.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.090.0571.4369.840.040.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0560.8762.080.020.01
DukeACC0.000.0575.0071.800.000.02
DuquesneA100.090.0560.8756.360.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0547.6252.03-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0550.0052.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0528.5731.30-0.04-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0576.0076.320.040.03
DenverSum0.080.0554.1751.780.010.00
DrakeMVC0.090.0520.8323.19-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0525.0025.09-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.040.0525.0026.74-0.02-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0554.1750.990.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0550.0049.600.00-0.00
MaineAE0.080.0533.3333.13-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0557.1453.980.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0572.2274.680.020.03
RiderMAAC0.040.0540.0042.12-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0515.0015.32-0.06-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0565.2264.370.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0573.9176.740.040.03
BryantNEC0.040.0525.0026.40-0.02-0.03
ElonCAA0.040.0552.1750.420.000.00
SMUAmer0.040.0586.9682.900.030.04
George WashingtonA100.090.0575.0071.920.040.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0557.8956.090.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0515.0018.11-0.06-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0521.7423.40-0.02-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0542.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0558.3359.360.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0545.8346.63-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0545.8342.32-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0517.3920.66-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.040.0560.8755.970.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0550.0053.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0540.0042.85-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0522.7327.18-0.05-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0563.6461.640.010.01
KansasB120.080.0582.6179.190.050.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0571.4368.750.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0543.4843.76-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0557.1455.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0565.2268.590.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3333.07-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.090.0556.5255.730.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0583.3381.320.060.03
SamfordSC0.040.0541.6742.61-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0569.5770.070.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0523.8122.82-0.02-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0586.9680.370.030.03
UABCUSA0.090.0582.6179.390.060.03
Utah St.MWC0.080.0547.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0545.4546.21-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0365.2262.830.020.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0317.6526.58-0.04-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0342.1145.67-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.23-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.060.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.070.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.160.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0313.0413.56-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.040.0331.5831.74-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0341.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0350.0051.910.000.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0321.7424.20-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0334.7833.05-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.0081.160.030.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0336.3636.20-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.19-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0372.7370.400.020.01
Texas TechB120.040.0360.8755.300.010.00
The CitadelSC0.040.0331.8230.05-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0322.7323.25-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0340.0040.34-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.480.020.01
BYUWCC0.040.0366.6769.490.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0386.9686.650.030.02
ColoradoP120.040.0369.5765.310.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0354.5552.540.000.00
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.6418.18-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0339.1341.03-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0354.1754.110.000.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0345.8343.68-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.040.0369.5769.040.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0371.4369.430.020.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0365.2267.120.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0360.0057.640.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0356.0055.420.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0334.7837.06-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
USCP120.040.0378.2673.050.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0368.1871.310.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0352.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.63-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.040.0336.3631.98-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.060.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.040.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.040.0343.4842.47-0.01-0.00