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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:23.6
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:48
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:51
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-25.00.25%
28-37.21.64%
27-410.56.18%
26-514.113.69%
25-618.020.34%
24-722.521.87%
23-828.017.20%
22-934.811.17%
21-1043.35.03%
20-1152.91.95%
19-1266.30.54%
18-1374.50.11%
17-1491.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11McNeese St. (324.7)SlndH109-65W100%0.0
11-14Villanova (5.1)BEH76-79L0%0.0
11-18Georgia St. (101.8)SBH64-56W100%0.0
11-22Utah St. (118.1)MWCN64-85W100%0.0
11-23Auburn (86.4)SECN96-71W100%0.0
11-26NJIT (186.5)ASunH79-68W100%0.0
11-30Louisville (7.5)ACCA71-64L0%0.0
12-3Morehead St. (224.4)OVCH90-56W100%0.0
12-6Arizona St. (161.2)P12N64-97W100%0.0
12-10Cleveland St. (251.7)HorzH0-099%29.4
12-17Notre Dame (24.1)ACCN0-053%1.0
12-19Western Illinois (338.0)SumH0-0100%33.7
12-21Norfolk St. (309.9)MEACH0-0100%33.0
12-28Iowa (190.1)B10H0-094%18.5
1-1Minnesota (40.0)B10H0-083%11.4
1-5Ohio St. (55.9)B10A0-065%4.7
1-8Wisconsin (22.3)B10H0-062%3.6
1-12Iowa (190.1)B10A0-085%12.2
1-17Illinois (90.8)B10H0-089%15.0
1-21Penn St. (120.6)B10H0-093%17.4
1-24Michigan St. (48.9)B10A0-063%4.0
1-29Nebraska (87.2)B10A0-078%9.1
2-1Northwestern (49.5)B10H0-079%9.6
2-4Maryland (87.4)B10A0-078%9.3
2-9Indiana (20.8)B10A0-046%-1.3
2-14Rutgers (138.5)B10H0-094%18.4
2-18Michigan St. (48.9)B10H0-080%10.2
2-21Penn St. (120.6)B10A0-082%11.2
2-25Michigan (40.6)B10A0-059%2.6
2-28Indiana (20.8)B10H0-066%4.9
3-4Northwestern (49.5)B10A0-061%3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1028.6926.1072.9776.3413.1813.75
IndianaB100.003.8387.5076.600.002.04
NorthwesternB100.003.8175.0068.560.001.41
IowaB100.003.7844.4440.32-0.00-0.73
Penn St.B100.003.7866.6748.500.00-0.11
Michigan St.B100.003.7560.0060.870.000.82
MinnesotaB100.312.2788.8968.580.240.84
IllinoisB100.002.2766.6752.540.000.12
RutgersB100.002.2787.5051.760.000.08
NebraskaB100.002.2757.1445.630.00-0.20
MichiganB100.002.2477.7866.660.000.75
Ohio St.B100.002.2277.7862.910.000.57
MarylandB100.002.2287.5060.310.000.46
WisconsinB100.002.2277.7877.830.001.23
Notre DameACC0.001.80100.0077.980.001.00
LouisvilleACC5.561.7285.7174.883.970.85
NJITASun6.421.7050.0053.490.000.12
Georgia St.SB6.261.6760.0063.621.250.45
AuburnSEC6.021.64100.0059.196.020.30
Utah St.MWC5.861.6450.0052.440.000.08
VillanovaBE5.561.64100.0084.235.561.12
Arizona St.P125.561.6162.5039.141.39-0.35
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.6128.5732.15-0.00-0.58
McNeese St.Slnd5.561.610.0018.64-5.56-1.01
Morehead St.OVC5.561.6120.0040.37-3.33-0.31
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.610.0037.71-0.00-0.40
Western IllinoisSum0.001.610.0017.00-0.00-1.06
PittsburghACC0.460.1975.0048.980.23-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.18100.0074.830.000.09
St. John'sBE0.000.1844.4436.20-0.00-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.1888.8978.430.000.10
IUPUISum0.000.1733.3351.57-0.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.860.1750.0050.980.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.170.0038.78-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.310.1687.5082.220.230.10
DukeACC0.000.1690.0080.060.000.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0025.17-0.00-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1440.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1462.5070.890.000.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.460.1457.1453.860.070.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1442.8638.35-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1412.5030.51-0.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.460.1462.5052.060.120.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.08-0.00-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1425.0030.02-0.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1337.5038.08-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1312.5037.11-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0076.540.000.07
UCLAP120.000.13100.0086.650.000.10
DePaulBE0.000.1371.4337.680.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1388.8967.470.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1375.0054.480.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1357.1436.370.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1387.5081.910.000.08
Wake ForestACC0.310.1377.7855.180.170.01
LipscombASun0.460.1211.1132.47-0.36-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1237.5050.92-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0022.75-0.00-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.690.1171.4363.080.300.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.460.1175.0047.520.23-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1125.0027.74-0.00-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0050.980.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1157.1471.170.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0019.08-0.00-0.07
StetsonASun0.000.1125.0026.46-0.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1125.0041.19-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1185.7177.000.000.06
ColgatePat0.310.1112.5030.11-0.23-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.1185.7162.500.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1055.5647.600.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.1077.7870.290.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1057.1429.760.00-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1077.7864.250.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1062.5062.080.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0957.1449.640.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0950.0046.820.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0937.5037.96-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0957.1464.500.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0962.5074.160.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0912.5031.01-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0912.5028.64-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.810.0850.0045.130.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0825.0038.98-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0842.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.710.0812.5029.77-0.53-0.03
North FloridaASun0.400.0812.5034.49-0.30-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0860.0069.260.000.03
UNLVMWC0.310.0862.5042.780.08-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.400.0844.4441.55-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.690.0875.0056.270.350.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0875.0066.120.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0837.5043.19-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.080.0021.30-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0833.3336.67-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0871.4355.680.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0850.0042.770.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0837.5048.85-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.310.0820.0035.15-0.19-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0855.5646.770.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.560.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.270.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0840.0039.19-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0888.8977.470.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0877.7866.740.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0862.5044.840.00-0.01
BaylorB120.350.08100.0076.070.350.04
BryantNEC0.000.0822.2246.51-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0842.8658.24-0.050.01
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0833.3352.49-0.100.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0877.7859.940.000.02
TexasB120.000.0850.0038.730.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.350.0877.7886.650.190.06
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0660.0062.420.000.02
Texas St.SB0.690.0650.0044.180.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7169.920.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0688.8956.710.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6730.09-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0056.890.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0671.4360.090.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.77-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0662.5060.090.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.83-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6753.730.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
TulaneAmer0.310.0612.5023.82-0.23-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.460.0662.5053.550.120.00
BYUWCC0.400.0662.5067.080.100.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.75-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.050.0022.47-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.620.0542.8635.40-0.09-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.54-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0020.63-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.350.0562.5066.500.090.02
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.820.000.02
Texas TechB120.790.0587.5061.660.600.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.590.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.310.0516.6735.90-0.21-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.99-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.860.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1451.740.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0542.8660.66-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0587.5069.040.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0587.5064.760.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.440.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.450.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0542.8644.90-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.490.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5642.150.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1451.810.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0575.0071.330.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0528.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4347.690.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0047.990.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0511.1149.12-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0533.3355.64-0.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0544.4443.25-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0571.4348.030.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.180.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.420.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.600.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0044.700.00-0.01
USCP120.000.05100.0076.400.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0520.0022.88-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.140.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8629.20-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.880.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.920.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.32-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0357.1443.930.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.400.0342.8650.98-0.060.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.4438.15-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0040.690.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.310.0333.3340.37-0.10-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.400.0344.4453.29-0.040.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0357.1457.780.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.78-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.42-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.30-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.88-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0328.5727.38-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0041.460.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.010.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.250.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.340.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.310.0342.8641.13-0.04-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.310.0366.6761.690.100.01
DavidsonA100.310.0371.4362.990.130.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.310.0357.1456.540.040.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0362.5052.400.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.350.030.0038.43-0.35-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.68-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0333.3338.56-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0069.680.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0023.62-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.310.0333.3356.66-0.100.00
Portland St.BSky0.310.0340.0043.88-0.06-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0312.5033.18-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.0342.8645.34-0.04-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0060.950.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.380.000.01
The CitadelSC0.310.0350.0030.320.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.400.0350.0059.840.000.01
UCFAmer0.310.0385.7175.800.220.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
UtahP120.000.0380.0058.220.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.02-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.350.0333.3346.06-0.12-0.00