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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:145.0
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:84
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17145.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH77-76W100%0.0
11-13Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH109-73W100%0.0
11-17Rider (198.0)MAACH81-77W100%0.0
11-20Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH83-55W100%0.0
11-24Siena (193.0)MAACH81-73W100%0.0
11-28Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12N97-87L0%0.0
11-29Washington St. (224.0)P12N69-54L0%0.0
12-1Siena (193.0)MAACN63-68W100%0.0
12-4Boston College (207.0)ACCH88-67W100%0.0
12-7Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH69-64W100%0.0
12-14Butler (150.0)BEN70-76L0%0.0
12-17Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH79-50W100%0.0
12-22West Virginia (88.0)B12A70-73W100%0.0
12-31Ohio St. (24.0)B10H69-78L0%0.0
1-5Minnesota (50.0)B10A82-79L0%0.0
1-12Nebraska (48.0)B10H70-64W100%0.0
1-15Illinois (70.0)B10A58-66W100%0.0
1-18Penn St. (114.0)B10H65-64W100%0.0
1-21Northwestern (123.0)B10A63-60L0%0.0
1-25Wisconsin (6.0)B10H58-72L0%0.0
1-30Michigan (11.0)B10A75-66L0%0.0
2-2Penn St. (114.0)B10A79-68L0%0.0
2-5Minnesota (50.0)B10H77-74W100%0.0
2-8Ohio St. (24.0)B10A67-49L0%0.0
2-15Indiana (102.0)B10H82-64W100%0.0
2-20Michigan St. (18.0)B10H79-94L0%0.0
2-23Nebraska (48.0)B10A76-57L0%0.0
2-26Michigan (11.0)B10H76-77L0%0.0
3-2Iowa (56.0)B10A83-76L0%0.0
3-5Wisconsin (6.0)B10A76-70L0%0.0
3-9Northwestern (123.0)B10H65-74L0%0.0
3-13Ohio St. (24.0)B10N63-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.2626.2641.0441.04-4.70-4.70
Ohio St.B105.425.4270.9770.972.272.27
MinnesotaB103.913.9160.0060.000.780.78
MichiganB103.873.8774.1974.191.871.87
NebraskaB103.863.8662.0762.070.930.93
WisconsinB103.853.8577.4277.422.112.11
NorthwesternB103.833.8338.7138.71-0.86-0.86
Penn St.B103.823.8246.6746.67-0.25-0.25
SienaMAAC3.183.1850.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B102.422.4275.7675.761.251.25
IowaB102.372.3760.0060.000.470.47
IllinoisB102.352.3559.3859.380.440.44
IndianaB102.302.3054.8454.840.220.22
RiderMAAC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
West VirginiaB121.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
Central ConnecticutNEC1.661.6635.7135.71-0.47-0.47
Oklahoma St.B121.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
ButlerBE1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Washington St.P121.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.591.5918.5218.52-1.00-1.00
Boston CollegeACC1.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
Eastern MichiganMAC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Northern KentuckyASun1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
MonmouthMAAC0.220.2234.3834.38-0.07-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
StanfordP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Notre DameACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
North FloridaASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
MaristMAAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1521.2121.21-0.09-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
TexasB120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ToledoMAC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
MarylandACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
BrownIvy0.070.0751.8551.850.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00