Purdue

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	65.0
Current RPI:	62
Expected SOS:	30
Current SOS:	45
Current Record:	15-8
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	5-5
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	74
Expected OOC SOS:	170

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	26.5	0.04%
22-9	31.8	0.68%
21-10	40.6	5.69%
20-11	50.4	20.13%
19-12	61.5	32.64%
18-13	74.0	28.03%
17-14	87.6	10.96%
16-15	100.2	1.72%
15-16	111.3	0.10%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	H	96-34	W	100%	0.0
11-14	High Point (283.4)	BSth	H	67-65	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	N	90-91	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Temple (24.4)	A10	N	85-77	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Alabama (30.4)	SEC	N	65-56	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	H	80-37	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	H	78-57	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Miami FL (64.4)	ACC	H	76-65	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Xavier (55.8)	A10	A	66-63	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Western Carolina (259.9)	SC	H	65-60	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	61-36	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Butler (143.2)	Horz	N	67-65	L	0%	0.0
12-20	IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)	Sum	H	81-56	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Iowa (139.5)	B10	A	76-79	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Illinois (39.4)	B10	H	75-60	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Penn St. (163.2)	B10	A	65-45	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	A	66-79	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	H	62-67	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Iowa (139.5)	B10	H	75-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	83-58	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Michigan (25.3)	B10	H	64-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	A	56-58	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Indiana (20.6)	B10	H	61-78	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	0-0		7%	-16.4
2-12	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	H	0-0		73%	6.8
2-15	Illinois (39.4)	B10	A	0-0		40%	-2.7
2-19	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	H	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-22	Nebraska (117.6)	B10	H	0-0		84%	10.7
2-25	Michigan (25.3)	B10	A	0-0		35%	-4.2
2-29	Penn St. (163.2)	B10	H	0-0		87%	12.2
3-4	Indiana (20.6)	B10	A	0-0		19%	-9.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Purdue	B10	26.22	26.21	60.40	57.02	5.45	3.68
Iowa	B10	4.79	3.95	59.09	52.85	0.87	0.23
Indiana	B10	2.64	3.94	73.91	74.77	1.26	1.95
Michigan	B10	2.60	3.94	71.43	65.69	1.11	1.24
Penn St.	B10	2.60	3.91	39.13	37.43	-0.56	-0.98
Northwestern	B10	2.46	3.91	65.00	58.13	0.74	0.64
Illinois	B10	2.52	3.89	76.19	66.81	1.32	1.31
Michigan St.	B10	2.60	3.89	75.00	72.16	1.30	1.72
Ohio St.	B10	0.42	2.38	86.96	85.20	0.31	1.68
Minnesota	B10	2.70	2.38	72.73	63.35	1.23	0.64
Wisconsin	B10	2.56	2.35	73.91	73.11	1.22	1.09
Nebraska	B10	0.42	2.35	52.38	47.76	0.02	-0.11
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.33	1.78	42.86	39.71	-0.33	-0.37
Western Michigan	MAC	2.38	1.78	42.86	44.44	-0.34	-0.20
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.36	1.77	5.56	7.58	-2.10	-1.50
Xavier	A10	2.27	1.70	63.64	62.49	0.62	0.42
Butler	Horz	2.27	1.69	47.83	49.11	-0.10	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	2.31	1.69	36.84	36.72	-0.61	-0.45
Temple	A10	2.22	1.67	80.95	77.65	1.38	0.92
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.22	1.66	44.44	51.89	-0.25	0.06
Iona	MAAC	2.22	1.64	82.61	82.87	1.45	1.08
Alabama	SEC	2.17	1.61	66.67	68.03	0.72	0.58
High Point	BSth	2.17	1.61	33.33	34.01	-0.72	-0.52
Miami FL	ACC	2.17	1.61	68.42	62.17	0.80	0.39
Western Carolina	SC	2.17	1.61	36.36	38.57	-0.59	-0.37
Central Michigan	MAC	0.25	0.25	28.57	34.20	-0.11	-0.08
Duke	ACC	0.20	0.22	86.36	83.09	0.15	0.14
Ball St.	MAC	0.20	0.19	55.00	57.41	0.02	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.21	0.19	38.10	40.81	-0.05	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.24	0.19	62.50	62.49	0.06	0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.29	0.19	56.52	57.72	0.04	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.25	0.19	59.09	50.82	0.05	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.24	0.19	81.82	81.49	0.15	0.12
Oakland	Sum	0.20	0.17	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.26	0.16	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.21	0.14	73.91	75.49	0.10	0.07
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.14	34.78	35.20	-0.05	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.21	0.14	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.16	0.14	65.22	63.61	0.05	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.19	0.14	34.78	38.77	-0.06	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.14	0.14	8.70	13.10	-0.12	-0.10
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.19	0.14	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.14	30.00	34.15	-0.06	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.14	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.14	86.96	83.16	0.11	0.09
Chicago St.	GWC	0.14	0.14	4.76	9.95	-0.13	-0.11
Chattanooga	SC	0.19	0.13	27.27	35.02	-0.08	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.13	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.14	0.13	87.50	85.41	0.11	0.09
Iowa St.	B12	0.19	0.13	73.91	68.43	0.09	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.13	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.19	0.13	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.13	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.13	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.11
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.12	18.18	22.22	-0.07	-0.06
Western Illinois	Sum	0.16	0.12	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.11	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.14	0.11	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.19	0.11	59.09	57.93	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.11	71.43	69.05	0.07	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.16	0.11	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.15	0.11	30.00	30.06	-0.06	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.15	0.11	35.00	39.29	-0.04	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.11	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.11	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.15	0.11	69.57	71.51	0.06	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.11	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.11	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.11	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.11	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.19	0.11	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.11	35.00	39.38	-0.04	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.11	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.11	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.11	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.11	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.10	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.09	36.36	38.48	-0.04	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.09	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.16	0.09	34.78	35.50	-0.05	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.09	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.15	0.09	68.18	67.64	0.05	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.15	0.09	40.91	43.66	-0.03	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.15	0.09	34.78	34.61	-0.05	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.09	77.27	73.45	0.06	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.10	-0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.09	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.08	33.33	37.25	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.08	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.08	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.08	81.82	77.20	0.07	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.08	34.78	32.06	-0.05	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.08	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.15	0.08	34.78	33.46	-0.05	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.08	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.08	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.08	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.08	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.08	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.08	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.08	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.08	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.08	17.65	27.10	-0.06	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.08	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.08	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.08	70.83	68.82	0.04	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.08	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.08	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.08	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.08	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.08	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.08	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.08	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.08	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.08	70.83	71.05	0.04	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.08	26.09	28.60	-0.04	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.08	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.00	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.05	56.52	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.05	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.05	68.00	69.07	0.03	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.05	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.05	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.05	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.05	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.05	30.43	29.50	-0.04	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.09	0.05	27.27	23.80	-0.04	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.05	27.78	29.87	-0.04	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.04
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.00	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.00	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.00	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00