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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:62.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:186
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-33.00.01%
25-44.20.04%
24-57.10.34%
23-610.80.98%
22-716.32.95%
21-822.86.30%
20-930.610.92%
19-1041.114.69%
18-1153.417.79%
17-1267.616.06%
16-1382.913.09%
15-14100.18.66%
14-15118.74.84%
13-16138.42.08%
12-17158.10.89%
11-18174.30.27%
10-19195.20.04%
9-20206.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Samford (314.6)SCH80-40W100%0.0
11-16IUPUI (280.1)SumH77-57W100%0.0
11-20Grambling St. (341.3)SWACH82-30W100%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (67.8)B12N0-051%0.5
12-2North Carolina St. (53.0)ACCH0-062%3.8
12-6North Florida (202.8)ASunH0-091%16.0
12-8IPFW (155.8)SumH0-082%11.2
12-10Arkansas St. (244.0)SBH0-093%17.7
12-13Vanderbilt (149.8)SECA0-059%2.7
12-20Notre Dame (55.5)ACCN0-042%-2.3
12-22Gardner Webb (123.0)BSthH0-086%13.0
12-31Minnesota (54.2)B10H0-058%2.4
1-3Michigan (34.6)B10H0-053%0.8
1-7Wisconsin (5.8)B10A0-014%-13.2
1-10Maryland (44.4)B10H0-057%2.1
1-17Penn St. (113.3)B10A0-054%1.2
1-21Illinois (59.7)B10A0-039%-3.4
1-24Iowa (15.1)B10H0-040%-3.0
1-28Indiana (56.6)B10H0-060%3.1
1-31Northwestern (160.2)B10A0-065%4.7
2-4Ohio St. (28.3)B10H0-046%-1.1
2-7Minnesota (54.2)B10A0-034%-4.8
2-12Rutgers (192.8)B10A0-070%6.4
2-15Nebraska (86.6)B10H0-070%6.1
2-19Indiana (56.6)B10A0-037%-4.1
2-26Rutgers (192.8)B10H0-087%13.6
3-1Ohio St. (28.3)B10A0-025%-8.2
3-4Michigan St. (43.0)B10A0-031%-6.0
3-7Illinois (59.7)B10H0-062%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1034.7226.15100.0057.1234.723.72
RutgersB100.004.0950.0035.070.00-1.22
IndianaB100.004.09100.0065.430.001.26
Ohio St.B100.004.06100.0074.530.001.99
IllinoisB100.004.03100.0061.750.000.95
MinnesotaB100.004.0350.0062.950.001.04
IowaB100.002.4566.6774.270.001.19
Penn St.B100.002.4566.6746.570.00-0.17
Michigan St.B100.002.4550.0066.300.000.80
MichiganB100.002.44100.0067.970.000.88
NorthwesternB100.002.43100.0044.650.00-0.26
MarylandB100.002.42100.0068.640.000.90
NebraskaB100.002.42100.0052.570.000.12
WisconsinB100.002.39100.0081.660.001.52
Notre DameACC0.001.81100.0070.600.000.75
IUPUISum16.671.7950.0029.810.00-0.72
IPFWSum0.001.78100.0065.650.000.56
North FloridaASun0.001.780.0050.01-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.001.78100.0048.920.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC16.671.750.0022.16-16.67-0.98
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.75100.0061.910.000.42
Arkansas St.SB0.001.720.0046.69-0.00-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.7250.0063.010.000.45
Kansas St.B120.001.72100.0060.420.000.36
SamfordSC16.671.7250.0035.040.00-0.52
LouisvilleACC0.000.23100.0077.610.000.12
ClemsonACC0.000.2050.0046.570.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.190.0023.67-0.00-0.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1850.0035.720.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0038.86-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.18100.0050.010.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1766.6747.950.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.17100.0067.660.000.06
CampbellBSth0.000.150.0030.64-0.00-0.06
FurmanSC0.000.1550.0024.870.00-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1533.3338.23-0.00-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.150.0058.38-0.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.150.0031.29-0.00-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.150.0016.22-0.00-0.10
Western CarolinaSC0.000.150.0045.35-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.14100.0085.060.000.10
PittsburghACC2.780.14100.0057.352.780.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0044.87-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.12100.0057.950.000.02
DenverSum0.000.1250.0062.850.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1250.0055.890.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0035.01-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.120.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0033.91-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA104.170.12100.0071.494.170.05
Austin PeayOVC2.780.120.0033.98-2.78-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.120.0044.88-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1250.0056.950.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1250.0034.320.00-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0043.860.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0029.01-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0036.86-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0068.310.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1150.0037.010.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0066.870.000.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.100.0017.64-0.00-0.06
WinthropBSth0.000.1050.0056.020.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.100.0031.63-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.10100.0059.250.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1033.3334.62-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3335.35-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.090.0040.22-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.09100.0054.380.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.09100.0050.460.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0056.850.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.09100.0051.730.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.090.0060.93-0.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0039.05-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0036.790.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.330.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0055.69-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0950.0054.530.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0027.81-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.300.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0049.980.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.09100.0084.350.000.06
UMBCAE0.000.090.0035.57-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0950.0044.060.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0067.060.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.0950.0065.490.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6753.710.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.090.0033.91-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0933.3369.45-0.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.630.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.0933.3338.98-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0063.68-0.000.02
Indiana St.MVC2.780.0950.0052.180.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.090.0051.39-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0054.560.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0933.3334.10-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0043.270.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0035.120.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0057.160.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6741.230.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.86-0.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3343.60-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0052.100.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0043.990.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0038.55-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.68-0.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0033.38-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0070.580.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0063.440.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0032.76-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0071.680.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.060.0037.06-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.23-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6757.950.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.48-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0050.29-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0021.38-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0058.87-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0035.660.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0055.450.000.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.62-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6755.190.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0067.300.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3347.64-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.480.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.06100.0041.770.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.44-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.060.0048.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0650.0068.630.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.990.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0039.05-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0053.570.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0650.0059.620.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0045.040.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0039.830.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0046.460.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0065.830.000.02
FordhamA100.000.060.0036.83-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz2.780.060.0031.43-2.78-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.680.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0067.190.000.02
NavyPat0.000.060.0030.65-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.500.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.58-0.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.890.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0068.630.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.31-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0039.66-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.72-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.750.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.09-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0048.12-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0046.120.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0061.220.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0065.390.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0633.3350.61-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6743.460.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0058.61-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.19-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3331.05-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0333.3357.17-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0044.770.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.030.0034.75-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.030.0051.35-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0044.490.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.78-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0350.0052.080.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.080.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.970.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0053.31-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6748.810.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.07-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0029.100.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3329.88-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.320.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0063.260.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.610.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0037.190.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.25-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6762.170.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0066.730.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0038.06-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0066.43-0.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.280.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0046.51-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.17-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.300.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0044.49-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.99-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.360.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.28-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0041.28-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.510.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.030.0054.91-0.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0061.570.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0040.980.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0038.380.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.340.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.74-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0032.81-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0040.830.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.27-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0056.380.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0038.23-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0026.57-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.100.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0350.0061.290.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.480.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.90-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.990.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0044.020.00-0.00