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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Purdue

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:6.5
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:42
Current Record:19-2
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:8-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-23.714.63%
28-35.034.98%
27-46.730.70%
26-59.414.71%
25-613.33.98%
24-718.50.85%
23-825.30.13%
22-933.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Purdue.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10SIU Edwardsville (271.1)OVCH105-74W100%0.0
11-12Chicago St. (335.8)WACH111-42W100%0.0
11-14Marquette (52.5)BEA71-86W100%0.0
11-18Fairfield (217.8)MAACH106-64W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee (23.9)SECN75-78L0%0.0
11-23Western Kentucky (45.0)CUSAN77-73L0%0.0
11-24Arizona (15.5)P12N64-89W100%0.0
11-28Louisville (24.8)ACCH66-57W100%0.0
12-1Maryland (43.3)B10A75-80W100%0.0
12-3Northwestern (126.0)B10H74-69W100%0.0
12-7Valparaiso (136.7)MVCH80-50W100%0.0
12-10IUPUI (300.2)HorzH86-61W100%0.0
12-16Butler (37.3)BEN67-82W100%0.0
12-21Tennessee St. (212.9)OVCH97-48W100%0.0
12-30Lipscomb (132.8)ASunH98-66W100%0.0
1-3Rutgers (185.2)B10H82-51W100%0.0
1-6Nebraska (100.4)B10H74-62W100%0.0
1-9Michigan (38.7)B10A69-70W100%0.0
1-13Minnesota (98.6)B10A47-81W100%0.0
1-16Wisconsin (130.2)B10H78-50W100%0.0
1-20Iowa (157.0)B10A64-87W100%0.0
1-25Michigan (38.7)B10H0-086%11.9
1-28Indiana (115.9)B10A0-086%12.2
1-31Maryland (43.3)B10H0-088%13.0
2-3Rutgers (185.2)B10A0-092%15.8
2-7Ohio St. (21.0)B10H0-085%11.6
2-10Michigan St. (21.2)B10A0-046%-1.2
2-15Wisconsin (130.2)B10A0-083%10.7
2-18Penn St. (113.7)B10H0-093%16.3
2-22Illinois (159.6)B10A0-088%13.0
2-25Minnesota (98.6)B10H0-093%16.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Purdue's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Purdue's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Purdue.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PurdueB1026.3026.1089.0187.7620.5219.71
WisconsinB102.693.8452.6348.870.14-0.09
MarylandB102.613.8173.6869.551.241.49
MichiganB102.553.7878.9574.781.481.87
MinnesotaB102.623.7666.6761.380.870.86
RutgersB102.553.7561.1150.230.570.02
NorthwesternB102.622.3657.8952.110.410.10
Michigan St.B100.302.2885.0084.130.211.55
IowaB102.622.2850.0045.500.00-0.20
Ohio St.B100.472.2880.9578.570.291.30
NebraskaB102.612.2770.0061.781.050.54
IllinoisB100.412.2547.3745.38-0.02-0.21
IndianaB100.362.2557.8951.960.060.09
Penn St.B100.412.2261.9057.390.100.33
Chicago St.WAC2.681.770.003.23-2.68-1.66
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.641.7638.8933.96-0.59-0.56
ButlerBE2.501.7570.0065.171.000.53
MarquetteBE2.561.7472.2262.611.140.44
Tennessee St.OVC2.511.7037.5042.03-0.63-0.27
LipscombASun2.521.6756.2561.730.310.39
ValparaisoMVC2.501.6752.9453.190.150.11
Western KentuckyCUSA2.441.6666.6769.810.810.66
TennesseeSEC2.451.6470.5967.851.010.59
IUPUIHorz2.441.6429.4130.99-1.01-0.62
LouisvilleACC2.381.6482.3571.671.540.71
ArizonaP122.381.6184.2181.611.631.02
FairfieldMAAC2.381.6141.1845.71-0.42-0.14
Seton HallBE0.250.2175.0067.890.120.08
BelmontOVC0.270.2071.4374.650.110.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2029.4133.94-0.11-0.06
CreightonBE0.240.1975.0070.690.120.08
DePaulBE0.180.1942.1134.32-0.03-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.260.1723.5328.70-0.14-0.07
DrakeMVC0.240.1655.0049.070.02-0.00
VillanovaBE0.250.1694.7490.310.220.13
North CarolinaACC0.130.1680.0075.050.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.170.1670.0060.460.070.03
XavierBE0.180.1685.7180.080.130.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1557.8953.190.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.200.1433.3333.80-0.07-0.05
North FloridaASun0.130.1431.5835.15-0.05-0.04
TexasB120.260.1463.1657.620.070.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1420.0023.36-0.08-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1444.4445.98-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.180.1468.4258.990.070.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1323.5332.62-0.06-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.120.1338.8946.68-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.1347.3742.18-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1365.0062.040.040.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.1216.6724.91-0.13-0.06
StetsonASun0.190.1233.3336.92-0.06-0.03
NJITASun0.060.1238.8942.60-0.01-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1131.5832.72-0.05-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.190.1168.4269.240.070.04
USC UpstateASun0.050.1111.1117.96-0.04-0.07
OaklandHorz0.060.1161.9065.160.010.03
DetroitHorz0.130.1121.0525.98-0.07-0.05
BradleyMVC0.190.1165.0057.870.060.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1121.0523.50-0.07-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1126.3231.52-0.06-0.04
Green BayHorz0.190.1125.0027.94-0.10-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1145.0047.05-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.1152.6350.250.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.130.1144.4446.10-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1170.0071.230.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1157.1453.220.020.01
UMBCAE0.180.1158.8258.360.030.02
LSUSEC0.120.1161.1153.160.030.01
Notre DameACC0.130.1163.1661.050.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1110.5316.75-0.09-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.130.1173.6869.610.060.04
GeorgetownBE0.120.1168.4254.090.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1068.4257.770.050.02
VirginiaACC0.060.1094.4485.440.050.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0970.0068.220.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.0970.5975.930.050.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0942.1143.50-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.190.0842.8635.25-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0872.2274.700.060.04
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0847.0652.51-0.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.190.0870.0068.420.080.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0883.3384.230.040.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0829.4133.22-0.05-0.03
MaristMAAC0.120.0821.0521.99-0.07-0.05
RiderMAAC0.070.0865.0065.370.020.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0830.0031.69-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.120.0862.5058.700.030.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.0841.1843.41-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0878.9576.760.070.04
UC RiversideBW0.130.0817.6523.89-0.08-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.0841.1839.13-0.03-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0866.6755.930.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0868.4263.640.020.02
OhioMAC0.120.0847.0648.44-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.120.0841.1838.46-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.120.0860.0059.690.020.02
BryantNEC0.130.089.5217.08-0.10-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.089.5217.94-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.0852.6343.120.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.130.0873.6867.950.060.03
New MexicoMWC0.120.0845.0048.56-0.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0868.4261.270.020.02
UABCUSA0.120.0861.1164.130.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0844.4441.15-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.0868.4264.200.040.02
DukeACC0.000.0889.4785.190.000.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0837.5037.68-0.01-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0868.4263.980.050.02
ColoradoP120.120.0860.0053.730.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.0840.0043.34-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0876.4769.020.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0830.0032.53-0.02-0.03
StanfordP120.060.0855.0050.370.010.00
UtahP120.120.0861.1158.950.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.0868.4257.780.050.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0840.0030.87-0.01-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0652.9452.620.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.250.010.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.240.020.03
Ball St.MAC0.130.0661.1158.750.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0660.0060.340.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.0616.6724.29-0.08-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.040.04
KansasB120.130.0684.2179.740.090.03
Washington St.P120.070.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0647.3745.870.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0663.1666.880.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0677.7871.650.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0647.3748.17-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.7840.880.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0631.5830.000.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0657.8954.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.710.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0645.0045.020.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0666.6766.010.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0552.6351.700.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.130.0522.2228.67-0.07-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0529.4127.74-0.05-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
BucknellPat0.060.0561.9068.010.010.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0552.3848.520.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0523.5325.63-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0542.1132.48-0.01-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0531.5829.06-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0552.6346.880.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0538.8943.43-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0515.7920.92-0.04-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0552.6345.860.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.200.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0561.1151.900.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0566.6768.700.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0536.8435.55-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.120.0566.6768.500.040.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0561.1147.260.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0544.4446.64-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.120.0570.0070.630.050.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0527.7840.97-0.03-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0573.6865.280.030.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0541.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.130.030.03
BaylorB120.060.0561.1156.090.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0568.4255.060.020.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0584.2173.210.050.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0552.6347.390.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0545.0041.35-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0537.5046.63-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0565.0063.830.020.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0557.8950.810.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0527.7831.67-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0537.5033.78-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0552.6351.730.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0529.4130.67-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.8935.35-0.01-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0541.1847.51-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.710.010.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.57-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.780.020.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.040.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.50-0.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.540.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.230.000.00
AmericanPat0.060.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0327.7831.120.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.050.01
BrownIvy0.060.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.980.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.570.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.550.000.01
High PointBSth0.070.0340.0047.86-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0310.5327.310.00-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0340.0042.72-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0317.6517.230.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0352.6355.290.000.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.940.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0350.0051.480.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
OklahomaB120.060.0377.7867.900.030.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.690.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0330.0033.49-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.0026.140.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0378.9571.810.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.110.00-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0373.6877.120.030.01
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0378.9577.360.040.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0370.0068.050.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3337.220.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0344.4442.740.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0343.7545.340.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0320.0032.260.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.030.009.15-0.06-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.490.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0336.8444.12-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.370.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0383.3381.350.040.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.450.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.140.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.76-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0363.1663.180.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0311.1115.30-0.05-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0358.8263.210.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0352.9460.270.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0361.1160.790.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0357.1460.400.000.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0372.2272.970.030.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0321.0544.260.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0318.7518.400.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0368.4260.880.020.01
USCP120.000.0371.4368.300.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0061.440.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0364.7159.980.000.01