live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:5.4
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:2
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-41.35.38%
25-52.121.50%
24-64.132.98%
23-77.226.59%
22-811.110.93%
21-916.12.45%
20-1022.20.15%
19-1128.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Jackson St. (226.0)SWACH80-52W100%0.0
11-16Baylor (30.1)B12H74-67W100%0.0
11-20Savannah St. (333.7)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
11-22Valparaiso (36.3)HorzH73-67W100%0.0
11-25Arkansas St. (241.6)SBH91-68W100%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (122.6)MWCH78-73W100%0.0
12-4UNLV (120.9)MWCN80-69L0%0.0
12-7Navy (184.9)PatN47-67W100%0.0
12-12Boise St. (89.1)MWCA74-72L0%0.0
12-15UC Irvine (69.3)BWH78-63W100%0.0
12-18Long Beach St. (101.3)BWH94-73W100%0.0
12-21Alabama (82.0)SECA68-72W100%0.0
1-3Oregon St. (57.3)P12A70-57L0%0.0
1-6California (41.5)P12H68-65W100%0.0
1-10Stanford (85.9)P12H71-58W100%0.0
1-14Utah (30.0)P12A59-77W100%0.0
1-17Colorado (45.3)P12A91-87L0%0.0
1-21USC (20.5)P12H89-81W100%0.0
1-23UCLA (70.7)P12H86-72W100%0.0
1-28Arizona (25.9)P12A75-83W100%0.0
1-31Arizona St. (79.6)P12A74-91W100%0.0
2-4Colorado (45.3)P12H76-56W100%0.0
2-7Utah (30.0)P12H76-66W100%0.0
2-11California (41.5)P12A0-049%-0.3
2-13Stanford (85.9)P12A0-068%5.2
2-20Oregon St. (57.3)P12H0-083%10.3
2-24Washington St. (184.4)P12H0-094%17.2
2-28Washington (62.4)P12H0-080%9.2
3-2UCLA (70.7)P12A0-059%2.4
3-5USC (20.5)P12A0-043%-1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1226.3226.2484.2781.3918.0416.47
Oregon St.P122.894.1460.0056.260.580.52
UtahP124.804.1076.1972.302.521.83
CaliforniaP122.804.0768.1865.451.021.26
ColoradoP124.754.0671.4366.432.041.34
UCLAP122.514.0659.0955.490.460.45
StanfordP122.794.0552.6348.970.15-0.08
USCP122.414.0081.8276.141.532.09
ArizonaP122.722.5982.6180.941.771.60
Arizona St.P122.522.4756.5253.380.330.17
WashingtonP120.562.4465.2262.490.170.61
Washington St.P120.562.4436.3632.93-0.15-0.83
UNLVMWC2.461.8947.6253.60-0.120.14
Boise St.MWC2.421.8361.9061.190.580.41
Savannah St.MEAC2.421.8136.8437.42-0.64-0.45
Long Beach St.BW2.321.8047.6253.19-0.110.11
Fresno St.MWC2.371.7865.0061.790.710.42
BaylorB122.331.7676.1968.791.220.66
Arkansas St.SB2.331.7645.0040.59-0.23-0.33
Jackson St.SWAC2.331.7650.0054.550.000.16
UC IrvineBW2.271.7576.1974.091.190.84
ValparaisoHorz2.231.7385.7186.011.591.24
AlabamaSEC2.171.6761.9054.860.520.16
NavyPat2.171.6765.2264.600.660.49
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.390.3342.8650.41-0.060.00
San Diego St.MWC0.340.3172.7372.030.160.14
Cal PolyBW0.290.2830.0034.56-0.12-0.09
New MexicoMWC0.250.2560.8763.000.050.07
NevadaMWC0.200.2355.0054.530.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2352.3850.410.010.00
WyomingMWC0.200.2343.4842.50-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.240.2228.5728.54-0.10-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.2035.0032.27-0.03-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.250.2045.4538.47-0.02-0.05
KansasB120.200.2081.8277.570.130.11
Utah St.MWC0.200.1745.0046.77-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.100.1769.5762.630.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.240.1772.7376.360.110.09
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1679.1780.760.080.10
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1425.0022.76-0.08-0.08
RiceCUSA0.150.1428.5729.72-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.150.1440.0036.77-0.03-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.150.1445.8341.65-0.01-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1485.7185.390.110.10
BYUWCC0.240.1466.6769.500.080.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1457.8961.750.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.1478.2676.810.050.07
KentuckySEC0.140.1473.9171.550.070.06
Green BayHorz0.100.1254.5556.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.129.5213.52-0.16-0.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1239.1338.57-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.200.1234.7830.36-0.06-0.05
SMUAmer0.150.1290.9186.130.120.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.119.0917.09-0.12-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1145.4554.11-0.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.1184.2181.670.030.07
Oklahoma St.B120.200.1147.8344.37-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.190.1170.8368.570.080.04
PepperdineWCC0.150.1156.5257.280.020.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1140.9136.61-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.140.1173.9170.060.070.04
Texas TechB120.140.1159.0953.120.030.01
LafayettePat0.090.1122.7324.04-0.05-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0940.0039.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0960.8760.730.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.150.0957.1459.470.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0940.9149.27-0.03-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0952.1755.930.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0942.1145.73-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0938.8938.51-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0915.0022.36-0.03-0.05
OaklandHorz0.050.0968.0067.970.020.03
BelmontOVC0.140.0866.6766.540.050.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0810.0013.13-0.08-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0865.2268.610.050.03
DukeACC0.140.0873.9170.040.070.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0845.0046.13-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0886.3682.100.040.05
PortlandWCC0.140.0840.0038.50-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.0815.0015.35-0.10-0.06
PacificWCC0.150.0825.0028.89-0.07-0.04
TCUB120.050.0843.4837.22-0.01-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0854.5554.930.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0817.3920.66-0.06-0.05
VirginiaACC0.100.0882.6178.050.060.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0878.2678.050.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0845.0049.39-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0847.6244.99-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.100.0891.3084.380.080.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0621.0523.58-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0629.1733.15-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.21-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0650.0053.300.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0631.5831.79-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0634.7834.45-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0638.1037.44-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0665.2261.450.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.370.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0638.8945.66-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0035.77-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0636.8438.39-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.20-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.880.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0620.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.100.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.7920.03-0.04-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.065.007.23-0.09-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.13-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.09-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.0633.3334.19-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0665.0066.790.020.02
TroySB0.100.0623.8126.67-0.05-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.540.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0675.0076.240.050.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0631.5831.98-0.04-0.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0612.5012.85-0.07-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0666.6767.690.030.02
MarquetteBE0.100.0662.5056.260.020.01
AmericanPat0.050.0630.4331.89-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0652.1753.380.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0654.1755.570.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0654.5558.140.000.01
ColgatePat0.090.0645.4546.10-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.090.010.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0661.9056.690.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0639.1338.34-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0660.8758.470.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0633.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.15-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.270.020.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0681.8276.740.060.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0656.5256.310.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0614.2917.92-0.07-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0628.5726.96-0.04-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0638.8937.66-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.3679.150.070.03
TempleAmer0.090.0663.6459.840.030.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0622.7323.25-0.05-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0656.5260.000.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0682.6179.550.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0521.7423.40-0.05-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0518.7526.45-0.06-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0530.4331.18-0.04-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0570.5975.550.040.03
DavidsonA100.050.0560.0057.960.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0543.4842.01-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.2556.100.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0554.5554.490.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0531.8229.14-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0573.6874.650.020.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0517.6529.24-0.03-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.6178.690.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0543.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.65-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0338.1040.73-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.74-0.03-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.66-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.960.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.710.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.020.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.74-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0354.1755.080.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.430.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0331.5837.72-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.610.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.830.020.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0315.0027.26-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.15-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0352.1751.940.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.92-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.940.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.380.040.02
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.36-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0365.2259.020.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0340.0045.51-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0328.5731.89-0.02-0.01
VMISC0.050.0315.7917.42-0.03-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.780.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.220.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01