Oregon

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	67.0
Current RPI:	67
Expected SOS:	93
Current SOS:	93
Current Record:	22-9
Expected Record:	22-9
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	83
Expected OOC SOS:	128

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-9	67.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	A	78-64	L	0%
11-17	Eastern Washington (209.0)	BSky	H	73-65	W	100%
11-20	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	H	86-61	W	100%
11-23	Nebraska (154.0)	B10	A	76-83	W	100%
11-29	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	H	64-59	W	100%
12-3	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	N	79-65	L	0%
12-10	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	H	74-70	W	100%
12-12	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	79-70	W	100%
12-18	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	H	54-67	L	0%
12-20	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	H	58-45	W	100%
12-21	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	H	74-66	W	100%
12-22	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	H	55-45	W	100%
12-29	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	N	75-92	W	100%
12-31	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	76-60	L	0%
1-5	Stanford (97.0)	P12	H	78-67	W	100%
1-8	California (37.0)	P12	H	60-77	L	0%
1-12	Arizona St. (252.0)	P12	A	58-67	W	100%
1-14	Arizona (79.0)	P12	A	57-59	W	100%
1-19	Southern California (270.0)	P12	H	65-62	W	100%
1-21	UCLA (117.0)	P12	H	75-68	W	100%
1-29	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	H	71-76	L	0%
2-2	Utah (274.0)	P12	A	68-79	W	100%
2-4	Colorado (62.0)	P12	A	72-71	L	0%
2-9	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	82-57	W	100%
2-11	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	78-69	W	100%
2-16	California (37.0)	P12	A	86-83	L	0%
2-19	Stanford (97.0)	P12	A	64-68	W	100%
2-26	Oregon St. (135.0)	P12	A	73-74	W	100%
3-1	Colorado (62.0)	P12	H	90-81	W	100%
3-3	Utah (274.0)	P12	H	94-48	W	100%
3-8	Colorado (62.0)	P12	N	62-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oregon	P12	26.27	26.27	68.15	68.15	9.53	9.53
Colorado	P12	5.65	5.65	65.52	65.52	1.75	1.75
Oregon St.	P12	4.17	4.17	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
California	P12	4.07	4.07	70.97	70.97	1.71	1.71
Utah	P12	4.06	4.06	17.86	17.86	-2.61	-2.61
Stanford	P12	4.04	4.04	70.00	70.00	1.62	1.62
Washington St.	P12	3.94	3.94	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	3.91	3.91	68.97	68.97	1.48	1.48
Arizona	P12	2.54	2.54	69.70	69.70	1.00	1.00
Arizona St.	P12	2.46	2.46	33.33	33.33	-0.82	-0.82
UCLA	P12	2.43	2.43	58.06	58.06	0.39	0.39
Southern California	P12	2.40	2.40	19.35	19.35	-1.47	-1.47
Fresno St.	WAC	1.82	1.82	36.67	36.67	-0.48	-0.48
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.75	1.75	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Portland St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.70	1.70	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.69	1.69	59.26	59.26	0.31	0.31
Brigham Young	WCC	1.69	1.69	73.33	73.33	0.79	0.79
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.67	1.67	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.66	1.66	69.70	69.70	0.66	0.66
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.64	1.64	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska	B10	1.64	1.64	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Virginia	ACC	1.61	1.61	70.00	70.00	0.65	0.65
Weber St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	78.57	78.57	0.15	0.15
Seattle	ind	0.24	0.24	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.22	0.22	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	37.04	37.04	-0.06	-0.06
Portland	WCC	0.21	0.21	20.00	20.00	-0.13	-0.13
Idaho	WAC	0.21	0.21	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Montana	BSky	0.18	0.18	79.31	79.31	0.11	0.11
Nevada	WAC	0.18	0.18	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.18	0.18	11.11	11.11	-0.14	-0.14
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
San Diego	WCC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.15	0.15	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.13	0.13	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.10	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	19.23	19.23	-0.06	-0.06
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	94.12	94.12	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	86.21	86.21	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01