live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:50.4
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:55
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-35.00.01%
26-411.70.27%
25-513.90.93%
24-618.83.09%
23-723.67.77%
22-829.912.69%
21-937.816.74%
20-1047.719.18%
19-1158.816.84%
18-1272.311.68%
17-1386.16.72%
16-14101.42.59%
15-15117.41.09%
14-16131.00.27%
13-17150.90.11%
12-18157.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Army (208.3)PatH91-77W100%0.0
11-15Baylor (11.5)B12A66-49L0%0.0
11-17Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH76-54W100%0.0
11-21Georgetown (104.0)BEN61-65L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee (165.2)SECN69-65W100%0.0
11-23Connecticut (143.2)AmerN69-79W100%0.0
11-28Boise St. (106.2)MWCH68-63W100%0.0
12-3Savannah St. (339.8)MEACH0-0100%30.9
12-11Alabama (102.9)SECH0-071%6.8
12-13Montana (251.5)BSkyH0-093%17.8
12-17UNLV (163.6)MWCN0-079%9.8
12-20Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-091%16.2
12-28UCLA (19.0)P12H0-039%-3.4
12-30USC (44.4)P12H0-059%2.6
1-4Washington (105.3)P12A0-053%0.9
1-7Washington St. (196.7)P12A0-077%8.8
1-14Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-094%18.8
1-19California (68.2)P12H0-067%5.2
1-21Stanford (54.1)P12H0-067%5.4
1-26Utah (80.8)P12A0-047%-0.8
1-28Colorado (84.8)P12A0-048%-0.7
2-2Arizona St. (165.8)P12H0-088%13.9
2-4Arizona (28.2)P12H0-055%1.4
2-9UCLA (19.0)P12A0-021%-9.6
2-11USC (44.4)P12A0-038%-3.6
2-16Utah (80.8)P12H0-067%5.4
2-18Colorado (84.8)P12H0-068%5.5
2-22California (68.2)P12A0-047%-1.0
2-25Stanford (54.1)P12A0-047%-0.8
3-4Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-085%12.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1229.1526.2470.3764.6611.877.70
Oregon St.P120.004.1928.5724.72-0.00-2.12
ColoradoP120.004.0771.4361.090.000.90
CaliforniaP120.004.0783.3365.070.001.23
StanfordP120.004.0775.0060.320.000.84
UtahP120.004.0675.0062.570.001.02
USCP120.004.03100.0077.080.002.18
UCLAP120.004.01100.0084.490.002.77
Washington St.P120.002.4850.0037.310.00-0.63
Arizona St.P120.002.4857.1436.840.00-0.65
WashingtonP120.002.4657.1452.820.000.14
ArizonaP120.002.4585.7171.840.001.07
Fresno St.MWC0.001.8160.0040.760.00-0.33
Boise St.MWC7.141.7560.0061.081.430.39
UNLVMWC0.001.7571.4350.560.000.02
MontanaBSky0.001.7514.2948.79-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.511.7266.6756.970.170.24
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.720.0025.10-0.00-0.86
GeorgetownBE7.141.7042.8645.81-1.02-0.14
TennesseeSEC7.141.6933.3335.66-2.38-0.49
ValparaisoHorz7.141.69100.0076.997.140.91
ConnecticutAmer7.141.6940.0040.14-1.43-0.33
ArmyPat7.141.6740.0047.21-1.43-0.09
BaylorB127.141.67100.0073.587.140.79
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2883.3361.490.000.07
WyomingMWC0.000.2860.0048.590.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2675.0074.990.000.13
Air ForceMWC0.000.2650.0042.710.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.2575.0070.470.000.10
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2340.0037.44-0.00-0.06
XavierBE0.000.20100.0074.800.000.10
SMUAmer0.600.2057.1469.300.090.08
New MexicoMWC0.000.2071.4358.670.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.600.2071.4343.020.26-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.1960.0057.170.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.19100.0086.250.000.14
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1966.6766.100.000.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.170.0033.43-0.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.000.1771.4354.520.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.960.150.0018.22-0.96-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1516.6732.62-0.00-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.1550.0062.460.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0075.690.000.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.1450.0053.560.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1433.3335.92-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1416.6743.29-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.1440.0050.88-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.1485.7176.170.000.07
BYUWCC0.510.1471.4368.660.220.05
TexasB120.000.1450.0036.240.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.140.0021.30-0.00-0.08
MississippiSEC0.000.1471.4346.010.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.14100.0059.480.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.140.0039.35-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1185.7155.890.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1183.3355.200.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1120.0054.94-0.000.01
Oklahoma St.B121.040.1183.3356.560.690.01
Western MichiganMAC0.600.1116.6736.45-0.40-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1166.6751.460.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1128.5727.50-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.110.0033.44-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0960.0058.950.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0985.7159.740.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0971.4368.970.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.600.0950.0053.530.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0960.0043.970.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3346.81-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0825.0030.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0039.200.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0871.4363.090.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0850.0049.010.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB1.040.0885.7168.390.740.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0837.5036.24-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6754.380.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0875.0064.960.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0820.0042.63-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0814.2929.81-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.060.000.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3333.15-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0850.0035.230.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0850.0054.690.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0814.2928.15-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.510.080.0023.26-0.51-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0825.0040.37-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0616.6729.36-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
HowardMEAC0.450.060.0038.26-0.45-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.600.0633.3345.60-0.20-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.600.0633.3327.13-0.20-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.600.0614.2929.15-0.43-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.510.0650.0052.330.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0063.95-0.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0516.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.510.0550.0061.590.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.510.050.0019.30-0.51-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.450.0533.3338.20-0.15-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0542.8634.17-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB101.340.0575.0073.840.670.03
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0550.0043.610.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0083.120.000.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.600.0362.5056.500.150.00
ColumbiaIvy0.600.0342.8642.47-0.09-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.600.0383.3362.080.400.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.600.0320.0034.22-0.36-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.600.0357.1448.240.09-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
WagnerNEC0.600.0333.3353.85-0.200.00
Appalachian St.SB0.890.0320.0036.00-0.54-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0038.72-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.890.0366.6769.810.300.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.510.0350.0071.330.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.510.0385.7175.950.360.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.510.0371.4370.330.220.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.510.0350.0058.600.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.510.0385.7178.150.360.02
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MarylandB100.450.0385.7156.490.320.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.00