live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:48.1
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:58
Current SOS:90
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-24.70.03%
26-35.30.28%
25-49.00.79%
24-512.32.79%
23-617.86.48%
22-724.212.68%
21-833.117.42%
20-943.219.10%
19-1055.916.54%
18-1170.511.58%
17-1286.16.83%
16-13102.73.53%
15-14121.01.28%
14-15139.30.57%
13-16161.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Coppin St. (271.6)MEACH107-65W100%0.0
11-17Detroit (131.1)HorzH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Toledo (67.7)MACH78-68W100%0.0
11-24Michigan (31.6)B10N63-70L0%0.0
11-30Portland St. (215.7)BSkyH0-095%19.4
12-7Mississippi (84.5)SECH0-075%7.9
12-13Illinois (46.1)B10A0-037%-4.0
12-17Cal St. Northridge (205.8)BWH0-093%17.9
12-20Delaware St. (256.8)MEACH0-097%22.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (136.8)BWH0-084%12.1
12-29UC Irvine (98.6)BWH0-077%8.8
1-3Oregon St. (178.0)P12H0-086%12.8
1-8Arizona (17.9)P12H0-051%0.4
1-10Arizona St. (92.0)P12H0-072%7.0
1-15Washington St. (218.7)P12A0-080%10.2
1-18Washington (106.1)P12A0-056%1.7
1-22USC (226.8)P12H0-093%17.9
1-24UCLA (53.6)P12H0-063%4.1
1-28Arizona (17.9)P12A0-029%-6.8
1-30Arizona St. (92.0)P12A0-049%-0.2
2-4Washington (106.1)P12H0-077%8.8
2-8Washington St. (218.7)P12H0-093%17.4
2-11USC (226.8)P12A0-081%10.7
2-14UCLA (53.6)P12A0-040%-3.1
2-18Colorado (94.9)P12H0-074%7.6
2-22Utah (27.7)P12H0-053%0.8
2-25California (53.4)P12A0-038%-3.5
3-1Stanford (33.2)P12A0-033%-5.3
3-4Oregon St. (178.0)P12A0-068%5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1231.7726.2964.2965.679.088.24
Oregon St.P120.004.3166.6747.650.00-0.20
ArizonaP120.004.25100.0076.060.002.22
USCP120.004.2040.0029.67-0.00-1.71
Washington St.P120.004.2033.3329.82-0.00-1.69
Arizona St.P120.004.2075.0058.130.000.68
WashingtonP120.004.16100.0057.790.000.65
UCLAP120.004.16100.0065.900.001.32
UtahP120.002.6266.6773.170.001.21
CaliforniaP120.002.6275.0068.400.000.96
StanfordP120.002.6275.0069.850.001.04
ColoradoP120.002.6266.6757.860.000.41
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.970.0057.41-0.000.29
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.9540.0044.98-0.00-0.20
UC IrvineBW0.001.9133.3369.55-0.000.75
MichiganB1014.061.90100.0068.9014.060.72
Coppin St.MEAC12.501.840.0030.13-12.50-0.73
IllinoisB101.561.82100.0065.981.560.58
DetroitHorz14.581.8166.6756.904.860.25
Portland St.BSky0.001.81100.0050.910.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.7933.3345.72-0.00-0.15
MississippiSEC0.001.7275.0056.700.000.23
ToledoMAC12.501.7266.6767.624.170.61
UC RiversideBW0.000.310.0029.28-0.00-0.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.3033.3334.36-0.00-0.10
UC DavisBW0.000.25100.0043.480.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2525.0052.91-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.2260.0050.930.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.2250.0034.540.00-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.000.18100.0086.000.000.13
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1833.3326.24-0.00-0.08
UNLVMWC0.000.1875.0051.180.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1675.0074.330.000.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.150.0041.06-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0034.67-0.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.150.0029.78-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.1575.0069.590.000.06
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0046.080.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky1.560.1225.0057.73-0.780.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1225.0044.61-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.120.0020.03-0.00-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0018.96-0.00-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.000.120.0021.27-0.00-0.07
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0036.280.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.560.1216.6730.01-1.04-0.05
OklahomaB120.000.1266.6758.810.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.12100.0070.270.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.12100.0084.910.000.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0050.790.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.1275.0073.300.000.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.12100.0047.400.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.12100.0041.460.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1220.0044.69-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1225.0039.30-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.12100.0066.670.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.1280.0043.930.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1250.0043.080.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0045.970.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.100.0050.64-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.100.0043.39-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0028.35-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.09100.0051.040.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0933.3332.25-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0975.0050.400.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0933.3348.25-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.25-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3347.25-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0933.3358.52-0.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0073.810.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0966.6735.400.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.09100.0057.580.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0029.60-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0035.62-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0056.780.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6752.810.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0975.0062.270.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0975.0058.190.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.090.0066.25-0.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0087.980.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.620.000.06
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0074.590.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3346.31-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0022.57-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0966.6756.000.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0069.180.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0074.040.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0019.76-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.840.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.360.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0650.0068.360.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.54-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0035.54-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0016.93-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.770.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0666.6766.090.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3327.72-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.57-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.20-0.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0035.290.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.390.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.490.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6757.340.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.36-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.87-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.67-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.49-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0620.0027.91-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0022.66-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.16-0.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0034.21-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.110.000.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0031.48-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0058.710.000.01
BucknellPat3.650.0620.0035.82-2.19-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.02
DenverSum1.560.0666.6764.880.520.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.960.000.01
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.030.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6762.260.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.10-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6749.970.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0065.950.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0066.880.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0020.52-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.400.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0033.26-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.53-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.170.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0625.0038.68-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.500.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.660.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.730.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.130.000.02
LehighPat0.000.060.0033.90-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.290.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0035.180.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.230.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0043.380.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.85-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6745.370.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0060.930.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.220.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0025.79-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.06100.0079.170.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.95-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0053.38-0.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3322.95-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0066.65-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.470.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.390.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.710.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.950.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0066.800.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.29-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0075.310.000.02
Notre DameACC1.560.0380.0072.950.940.01
South AlabamaSB1.560.030.0039.32-1.56-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6751.260.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0059.570.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.530.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0064.44-0.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.43-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.930.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6738.720.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0024.67-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3350.01-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0055.84-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0031.710.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0045.520.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.920.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6750.930.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0029.26-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0040.87-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0037.46-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.480.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.640.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.130.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0047.380.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0081.370.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.480.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.630.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0039.62-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.01-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.51-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0041.580.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.110.000.01
TroySB0.000.030.0044.74-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
VCUA101.560.0375.0067.590.780.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0073.380.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0076.960.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0042.95-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.14-0.00-0.01