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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:9.0
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:35
Current Record:28-5
Expected Record:28-5
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:13-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-59.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Army (266.0)PatH91-77W100%0.0
11-15Baylor (11.0)B12A66-49L0%0.0
11-17Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH76-54W100%0.0
11-21Georgetown (106.0)BEN61-65L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee (82.0)SECN69-65W100%0.0
11-23Connecticut (118.0)AmerN69-79W100%0.0
11-28Boise St. (72.0)MWCH68-63W100%0.0
12-3Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH128-59W100%0.0
12-11Alabama (78.0)SECH65-56W100%0.0
12-13Montana (221.0)BSkyH81-67W100%0.0
12-17UNLV (242.0)MWCN83-63W100%0.0
12-20Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH75-63W100%0.0
12-28UCLA (16.0)P12H89-87W100%0.0
12-30USC (40.0)P12H84-61W100%0.0
1-4Washington (211.0)P12A61-83W100%0.0
1-7Washington St. (159.0)P12A66-85W100%0.0
1-14Oregon St. (280.0)P12H85-43W100%0.0
1-19California (53.0)P12H86-63W100%0.0
1-21Stanford (100.0)P12H69-52W100%0.0
1-26Utah (83.0)P12A67-73W100%0.0
1-28Colorado (99.0)P12A74-65L0%0.0
2-2Arizona St. (125.0)P12H71-70W100%0.0
2-4Arizona (2.0)P12H85-58W100%0.0
2-9UCLA (16.0)P12A82-79L0%0.0
2-11USC (40.0)P12A70-81W100%0.0
2-16Utah (83.0)P12H79-61W100%0.0
2-18Colorado (99.0)P12H101-73W100%0.0
2-22California (53.0)P12A65-68W100%0.0
2-25Stanford (100.0)P12A73-75W100%0.0
3-4Oregon St. (280.0)P12A59-80W100%0.0
3-9Arizona St. (125.0)P12N80-57W100%0.0
3-10California (53.0)P12N73-65W100%0.0
3-11Arizona (2.0)P12N80-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1226.3126.3186.5286.5219.2219.22
CaliforniaP125.375.3770.0070.002.152.15
Oregon St.P123.913.9113.7913.79-2.83-2.83
ArizonaP123.893.8990.6290.623.163.16
Arizona St.P123.863.8648.3948.39-0.12-0.12
StanfordP123.833.8346.4346.43-0.27-0.27
ColoradoP123.823.8256.6756.670.510.51
USCP123.813.8177.4277.422.092.09
UtahP123.813.8166.6766.671.271.27
UCLAP123.813.8190.3290.323.073.07
Washington St.P122.372.3741.3841.38-0.41-0.41
WashingtonP122.342.3430.0030.00-0.94-0.94
Fresno St.MWC1.641.6462.0762.070.400.40
UNLVMWC1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
Boise St.MWC1.591.5964.2964.290.450.45
MontanaBSky1.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
AlabamaSEC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE1.541.5441.9441.94-0.25-0.25
TennesseeSEC1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz1.541.5476.6776.670.820.82
ArmyPat1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
BaylorB121.521.5276.6776.670.810.81
San Diego St.MWC0.320.3256.2556.250.040.04
WyomingMWC0.310.3153.3353.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.250.2582.3582.350.160.16
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
New MexicoMWC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
KentuckySEC0.210.2185.2985.290.150.15
San Jose St.MWC0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
SMUAmer0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
ButlerBE0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
PortlandWCC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.090.09
Portland St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01