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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:319
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-13.10.15%
27-26.60.78%
26-39.62.94%
25-413.57.86%
24-519.013.15%
23-625.018.30%
22-732.919.91%
21-841.915.77%
20-952.610.99%
19-1065.36.15%
18-1180.62.64%
17-1298.90.96%
16-13114.50.28%
15-14133.70.09%
14-15144.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH70-54W100%0.0
11-13Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACH100-67W100%0.0
11-17Alabama St. (334.9)SWACH114-56W100%0.0
11-19Ball St. (158.5)MACH0-093%17.9
11-23Connecticut (68.1)AmerN0-070%6.3
12-1Boise St. (59.7)MWCH0-080%10.2
12-8Colorado St. (161.3)MWCH0-092%17.1
12-11Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-096%21.1
12-13Portland St. (196.7)BSkyH0-097%22.1
12-16Fresno St. (87.8)MWCA0-069%6.0
12-20Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-099%27.8
12-29Utah (45.4)P12H0-069%5.8
12-31Colorado (94.8)P12H0-083%11.5
1-5Oregon St. (150.6)P12A0-077%8.7
1-11Arizona St. (66.7)P12A0-054%1.1
1-13Arizona (10.4)P12A0-026%-7.6
1-18USC (23.2)P12H0-058%2.5
1-20UCLA (46.1)P12H0-070%6.1
1-27Oregon St. (150.6)P12H0-089%14.7
2-1California (169.6)P12A0-079%9.7
2-3Stanford (98.1)P12A0-065%4.7
2-8Washington (146.1)P12H0-088%14.2
2-11Washington St. (180.4)P12H0-092%17.1
2-15USC (23.2)P12A0-038%-3.5
2-17UCLA (46.1)P12A0-050%0.1
2-22Arizona St. (66.7)P12H0-072%7.1
2-24Arizona (10.4)P12H0-045%-1.6
3-1Washington St. (180.4)P12A0-082%11.1
3-3Washington (146.1)P12A0-075%8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1231.9426.27100.0074.0531.9412.64
Oregon St.P120.004.2766.6744.190.00-0.50
UCLAP120.004.20100.0066.690.001.40
ArizonaP120.004.19100.0085.130.002.95
Washington St.P120.004.19100.0044.020.00-0.50
WashingtonP120.004.1750.0048.790.00-0.10
Arizona St.P120.004.16100.0064.670.001.22
USCP120.004.16100.0074.790.002.06
CaliforniaP120.002.6766.6740.860.00-0.49
ColoradoP120.002.64100.0054.140.000.22
UtahP122.782.64100.0068.482.780.98
StanfordP120.002.6175.0050.390.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.900.0051.910.000.07
Colorado St.MWC0.001.8866.6743.360.00-0.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC16.671.870.0035.02-16.67-0.56
Alabama St.SWAC16.671.840.0027.15-16.67-0.84
Boise St.MWC0.001.81100.0068.220.000.66
Fresno St.MWC0.001.8150.0061.140.000.40
ConnecticutAmer0.001.81100.0057.310.000.26
Central ArkansasSlnd0.001.810.0036.800.00-0.48
Coppin St.MEAC16.671.750.0023.61-16.67-0.93
Portland St.BSky0.001.75100.0049.920.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.001.7233.3346.870.00-0.11
New MexicoMWC0.000.3050.0050.570.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.27100.0057.360.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2750.0062.630.000.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.270.0023.910.00-0.14
UNLVMWC2.780.24100.0064.722.780.07
Utah St.MWC0.000.2250.0050.190.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.21100.0044.740.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2150.0051.070.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.2150.0060.130.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.210.0018.970.00-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.200.0037.120.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.200.0044.500.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.190.0028.170.00-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1833.3351.560.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1850.0034.730.00-0.06
NevadaMWC0.000.18100.0078.910.000.10
CincinnatiAmer2.080.18100.0082.352.080.11
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0022.610.00-0.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.170.0032.770.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0044.630.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.170.0035.450.00-0.05
KansasB120.000.17100.0082.910.000.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.150.0024.440.00-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.150.0042.670.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.15100.0071.010.000.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1533.3350.150.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0034.040.00-0.05
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0060.380.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.130.0033.930.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1333.3327.100.00-0.06
Kansas St.B120.000.12100.0062.930.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0054.590.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.12100.0076.260.000.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0066.010.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0021.010.00-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3353.520.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1266.6749.990.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1266.6756.400.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.1266.6757.400.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0022.920.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.12100.0060.370.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0048.690.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1233.3353.300.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.1033.3350.350.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.1066.6766.020.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.090.0042.340.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0068.280.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.090.0051.690.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0052.380.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.090.0032.200.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3338.050.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.090.0035.130.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.090.0033.520.00-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.000.09100.0082.290.000.06
OklahomaB120.000.09100.0060.070.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0933.3350.220.000.00
East CarolinaAmer2.080.0933.3334.49-0.69-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.520.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0933.3348.480.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.09100.0064.120.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0086.180.000.06
PortlandWCC0.000.060.0029.710.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0633.3338.880.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.060.0040.830.00-0.01
IowaB102.080.06100.0058.252.080.01
South Dakota St.Sum2.080.0666.6761.500.690.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
DenverSum0.000.060.0038.100.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.0017.060.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.060.0051.010.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3336.610.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.180.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0044.130.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.06100.0069.350.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0061.110.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.560.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.060.0035.760.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0038.990.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC2.080.03100.0051.082.080.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0350.0050.310.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0350.0035.740.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0325.0032.490.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.960.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.030.0061.460.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0029.630.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0325.0040.490.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz2.080.0333.3333.58-0.69-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0350.0052.870.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01