Oregon

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	72.0
Current RPI:	72
Expected SOS:	81
Current SOS:	81
Current Record:	22-12
Expected Record:	22-12
Current Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Conf Record:	12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	126
Expected OOC SOS:	236

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-12	72.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	70-54	W	100%
11-13	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	100-67	W	100%
11-17	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	114-56	W	100%
11-19	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	95-71	W	100%
11-23	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	N	63-71	L	0%
11-24	DePaul (186.0)	BE	N	89-79	W	100%
11-26	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	N	80-90	L	0%
12-1	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	70-73	L	0%
12-8	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	95-65	W	100%
12-11	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	74-68	W	100%
12-13	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	95-84	W	100%
12-16	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	61-68	W	100%
12-20	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	96-82	W	100%
12-29	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	56-66	L	0%
12-31	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	77-62	W	100%
1-5	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	76-64	L	0%
1-11	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	72-76	W	100%
1-13	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	90-83	L	0%
1-18	USC (34.0)	P12	H	70-75	L	0%
1-20	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	94-91	W	100%
1-27	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	66-57	W	100%
2-1	California (216.0)	P12	A	53-66	W	100%
2-3	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	96-61	L	0%
2-8	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	65-40	W	100%
2-11	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	84-57	W	100%
2-15	USC (34.0)	P12	A	72-70	L	0%
2-17	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	86-78	L	0%
2-22	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	75-68	W	100%
2-24	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	98-93	W	100%
3-1	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	78-76	L	0%
3-3	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	64-72	W	100%
3-7	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	N	64-62	W	100%
3-8	Utah (59.0)	P12	N	66-68	W	100%
3-9	USC (34.0)	P12	N	74-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oregon	P12	26.34	26.34	61.97	61.97	6.31	6.31
USC	P12	5.15	5.15	64.52	64.52	1.50	1.50
Washington St.	P12	5.05	5.05	39.29	39.29	-1.08	-1.08
Oregon St.	P12	3.81	3.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	3.75	3.75	81.25	81.25	2.34	2.34
Utah	P12	3.74	3.74	64.29	64.29	1.07	1.07
UCLA	P12	3.70	3.70	66.67	66.67	1.23	1.23
Washington	P12	3.66	3.66	66.67	66.67	1.22	1.22
Arizona St.	P12	3.61	3.61	68.97	68.97	1.37	1.37
Colorado	P12	2.41	2.41	54.84	54.84	0.23	0.23
Stanford	P12	2.37	2.37	53.12	53.12	0.15	0.15
California	P12	2.34	2.34	26.67	26.67	-1.09	-1.09
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.68	1.68	45.45	45.45	-0.15	-0.15
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.63	1.63	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	1.59	1.59	33.33	33.33	-0.53	-0.53
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.58	1.58	26.67	26.67	-0.74	-0.74
Oklahoma	B12	1.56	1.56	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Boise St.	MWC	1.54	1.54	72.41	72.41	0.69	0.69
Fresno St.	MWC	1.54	1.54	65.52	65.52	0.48	0.48
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.54	1.54	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	Amer	1.54	1.54	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Portland St.	BSky	1.52	1.52	58.62	58.62	0.26	0.26
Ball St.	MAC	1.49	1.49	60.00	60.00	0.30	0.30
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.49	1.49	16.13	16.13	-1.01	-1.01
DePaul	BE	1.47	1.47	36.67	36.67	-0.39	-0.39
San Diego St.	MWC	0.31	0.31	67.74	67.74	0.11	0.11
Utah St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.23	0.23	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.23	0.23	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	12.50	12.50	-0.14	-0.14
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
SMU	Amer	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	8.00	8.00	-0.12	-0.12
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Butler	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
UTEP	CUSA	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Creighton	BE	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.04	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.04	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00