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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:67.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:84
Current Record:13-7
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-728.60.28%
23-836.72.61%
22-944.59.15%
21-1053.420.23%
20-1162.626.32%
19-1274.222.27%
18-1388.112.73%
17-14103.84.99%
16-15120.81.22%
15-16136.90.16%
14-17150.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Coppin St. (342.3)MEACH70-54W100%0.0
11-13Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH100-67W100%0.0
11-17Alabama St. (341.1)SWACH114-56W100%0.0
11-19Ball St. (114.8)MACH95-71W100%0.0
11-23Connecticut (102.7)AmerN63-71L0%0.0
11-24DePaul (187.2)BEN89-79W100%0.0
11-26Oklahoma (22.4)B12N80-90L0%0.0
12-1Boise St. (39.5)MWCH70-73L0%0.0
12-8Colorado St. (176.5)MWCH95-65W100%0.0
12-11Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH74-68W100%0.0
12-13Portland St. (122.0)BSkyH95-84W100%0.0
12-16Fresno St. (103.9)MWCA61-68W100%0.0
12-20Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH96-82W100%0.0
12-29Utah (70.5)P12H56-66L0%0.0
12-31Colorado (85.4)P12H77-62W100%0.0
1-5Oregon St. (145.3)P12A76-64L0%0.0
1-11Arizona St. (31.9)P12A72-76W100%0.0
1-13Arizona (15.5)P12A90-83L0%0.0
1-18USC (34.7)P12H70-75L0%0.0
1-20UCLA (63.0)P12H94-91W100%0.0
1-27Oregon St. (145.3)P12H0-080%9.4
2-1California (190.5)P12A0-080%9.3
2-3Stanford (89.4)P12A0-056%1.6
2-8Washington (77.2)P12H0-079%8.9
2-11Washington St. (167.1)P12H0-087%12.5
2-15USC (34.7)P12A0-033%-4.8
2-17UCLA (63.0)P12A0-038%-3.3
2-22Arizona St. (31.9)P12H0-053%0.8
2-24Arizona (15.5)P12H0-043%-1.9
3-1Washington St. (167.1)P12A0-071%6.1
3-3Washington (77.2)P12A0-059%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1226.3126.2056.9859.683.675.07
Oregon St.P122.883.9755.5650.150.320.01
USCP122.773.8970.0067.251.111.34
ArizonaP122.833.8978.9579.021.642.26
UCLAP122.763.8968.4264.271.021.11
Washington St.P120.253.8950.0043.690.00-0.49
WashingtonP120.253.8770.0063.530.101.05
Arizona St.P122.763.8683.3379.891.842.31
CaliforniaP120.392.4636.8431.50-0.10-0.91
StanfordP120.322.4455.0050.570.030.03
ColoradoP122.882.4463.1655.580.760.27
UtahP122.882.4358.8257.480.510.36
Texas SouthernSWAC2.571.7722.2245.73-1.43-0.15
Colorado St.MWC2.701.7547.3742.76-0.14-0.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.641.7522.2240.78-1.46-0.32
Alabama St.SWAC2.501.7217.6525.13-1.62-0.85
Boise St.MWC2.631.7077.7876.141.460.89
Fresno St.MWC2.631.6970.5965.771.080.53
Central ArkansasSlnd2.561.6947.3750.97-0.130.03
OklahomaB122.631.6976.4766.801.390.57
ConnecticutAmer2.621.6950.0045.630.00-0.15
Portland St.BSky2.501.6762.5065.550.620.52
Ball St.MAC2.571.6464.7160.780.760.35
Coppin St.MEAC2.571.6410.0018.54-2.05-1.03
DePaulBE2.501.6144.4435.50-0.28-0.47
San Diego St.MWC0.260.3058.8262.830.050.08
New MexicoMWC0.330.2745.0048.56-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.260.2561.1156.830.060.03
UNLVMWC0.330.2573.6865.280.150.08
Long Beach St.BW0.330.2440.0043.34-0.07-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.270.2430.0036.48-0.11-0.06
KansasB120.130.2184.2179.740.090.13
Utah St.MWC0.340.2045.0045.50-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.190.0010.65-0.20-0.15
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1810.5316.75-0.11-0.12
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1812.5025.47-0.15-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.270.1838.8943.43-0.06-0.02
NevadaMWC0.140.1785.7182.070.100.11
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1743.7540.93-0.02-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.190.1737.5031.76-0.05-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1638.8946.03-0.03-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.1627.7829.11-0.09-0.07
Kansas St.B120.140.1673.6862.720.060.04
St. John'sBE0.200.1647.3742.18-0.01-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1689.4785.520.150.11
SMUAmer0.190.1670.0070.630.080.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1650.0052.440.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.1636.8444.12-0.05-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.200.1627.7840.97-0.09-0.03
MontanaBSky0.070.1470.5973.140.030.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.147.1414.82-0.17-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1329.4133.22-0.08-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1311.1115.30-0.10-0.09
XavierBE0.190.1385.7180.080.140.08
SeattleWAC0.000.1357.8954.500.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1327.7831.67-0.06-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.190.1368.4263.980.070.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.1116.6724.46-0.13-0.06
IdahoBSky0.070.1164.7166.850.020.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.1111.7612.81-0.05-0.08
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1137.5033.78-0.03-0.04
ButlerBE0.210.1166.6763.070.070.03
PortlandWCC0.270.1127.7827.30-0.12-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.270.1168.4264.200.100.03
CreightonBE0.060.1175.0070.690.030.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.1144.4444.86-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.130.1130.0039.93-0.05-0.02
BaylorB120.130.1161.1156.090.030.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1150.0048.740.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.1170.0060.460.030.02
UC DavisBW0.000.1158.8262.450.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1136.8435.55-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1178.9577.360.080.06
AkronMAC0.060.1147.0644.91-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1083.3384.230.130.07
TulsaAmer0.190.1055.0053.290.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1044.4450.31-0.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.140.0950.0047.670.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.140.0956.2557.400.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0823.5328.21-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0861.1147.260.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0833.3334.11-0.02-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.0833.3332.96-0.04-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0827.7829.84-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.0870.0068.220.050.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0890.4888.940.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.0831.5832.72-0.05-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.130.0868.4254.090.050.01
Georgia TechACC0.120.0852.6343.120.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0845.0044.46-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.200.0873.6865.590.100.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0866.6767.690.020.03
VillanovaBE0.130.0894.7490.310.120.06
West VirginiaB120.130.0884.2178.170.090.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0868.4258.990.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0856.2556.810.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0825.0028.02-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.190.0847.0648.44-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0842.1132.48-0.02-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0880.9583.260.040.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0870.5969.610.050.03
UMBCAE0.120.0858.8258.360.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.33-0.04-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0658.8257.140.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0617.6523.89-0.05-0.03
BYUWCC0.140.0580.9576.230.080.03
HawaiiBW0.140.0568.7563.960.050.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0552.9452.620.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0562.5058.700.020.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0521.0525.98-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.98-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.130.0547.6244.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0573.6867.950.030.02
Little RockSB0.130.0522.2225.26-0.07-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0517.6517.23-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0521.99-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0568.4260.530.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0547.0641.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0575.0070.270.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0523.5328.70-0.07-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0550.0051.480.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0541.1839.130.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.140.0555.0050.370.010.00
Notre DameACC0.140.0563.1661.050.040.01
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0568.4254.090.050.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0051.650.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0547.3746.91-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0543.7549.10-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0067.890.000.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0573.6872.360.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.0572.2272.970.060.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0552.9455.040.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0580.0078.860.000.03
TexasB120.000.0563.1657.620.000.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0552.9452.230.000.00
WinthropBSth0.130.0546.6758.78-0.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0550.0046.260.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.0552.3848.520.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.009.15-0.07-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0533.3336.47-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0510.0019.62-0.10-0.03
Michigan St.B100.130.0585.0083.180.090.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0527.7834.50-0.06-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.140.0538.8946.68-0.03-0.00
TulaneAmer0.130.0563.1657.900.030.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0571.4374.650.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0520.0041.760.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0578.9572.990.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0516.6724.910.00-0.03
LehighPat0.060.0538.8944.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0565.0058.490.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0572.2274.700.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0529.4139.62-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0568.4257.770.020.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0580.9576.520.040.03
PrincetonIvy0.060.0552.9460.270.000.01
PurdueB100.060.0590.4888.380.050.04
SyracuseACC0.130.0568.4261.270.050.01
TempleAmer0.000.0552.6351.730.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.880.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0568.4257.780.000.01
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.190.060.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0377.7871.650.040.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.010.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0373.6869.610.030.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.370.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.037.6920.09-0.05-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0352.9457.320.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.270.00-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0370.0068.420.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0331.5830.00-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0363.1657.540.020.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.037.6923.28-0.05-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0357.8950.210.010.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0350.0051.360.000.00
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0368.7563.620.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.050.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.160.000.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.210.050.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.040.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.26-0.04-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.550.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.530.020.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0310.5327.310.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.060.0360.0055.160.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0318.7536.76-0.04-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.050.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0355.5656.710.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0343.7554.09-0.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0363.1663.180.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
Penn St.B100.060.0361.9055.770.010.00
RutgersB100.060.0357.8947.140.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.0026.140.00-0.01