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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:27.0
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-927.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH107-65W100%0.0
11-17Detroit (205.0)HorzH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Toledo (79.0)MACH78-68W100%0.0
11-24Michigan (81.0)B10N63-70L0%0.0
11-25VCU (15.0)A10N63-77L0%0.0
11-30Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH81-59W100%0.0
12-7Mississippi (60.0)SECH73-79L0%0.0
12-13Illinois (73.0)B10N70-77W100%0.0
12-17Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH79-56W100%0.0
12-20Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH83-70W100%0.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH82-78W100%0.0
12-29UC Irvine (88.0)BWH69-67W100%0.0
1-3Oregon St. (133.0)P12H71-59W100%0.0
1-8Arizona (5.0)P12H62-80L0%0.0
1-10Arizona St. (102.0)P12H59-56W100%0.0
1-15Washington St. (169.0)P12A108-99L0%0.0
1-18Washington (126.0)P12A85-77L0%0.0
1-22USC (207.0)P12H75-67W100%0.0
1-24UCLA (48.0)P12H82-64W100%0.0
1-28Arizona (5.0)P12A90-56L0%0.0
1-30Arizona St. (102.0)P12A67-68W100%0.0
2-4Washington (126.0)P12H78-74W100%0.0
2-8Washington St. (169.0)P12H95-72W100%0.0
2-11USC (207.0)P12A75-80W100%0.0
2-14UCLA (48.0)P12A72-63L0%0.0
2-18Colorado (116.0)P12H73-60W100%0.0
2-22Utah (20.0)P12H69-58W100%0.0
2-25California (95.0)P12A69-80W100%0.0
3-1Stanford (59.0)P12A70-73W100%0.0
3-4Oregon St. (133.0)P12A62-65W100%0.0
3-12Colorado (116.0)P12N93-85W100%0.0
3-13Utah (20.0)P12N64-67W100%0.0
3-14Arizona (5.0)P12N80-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1226.3126.3170.5070.5010.7910.79
ArizonaP125.365.3690.3290.324.324.32
ColoradoP123.893.8950.0050.000.000.00
UtahP123.863.8679.3179.312.262.26
Oregon St.P123.863.8657.1457.140.550.55
USCP123.843.8440.0040.00-0.77-0.77
UCLAP123.843.8461.2961.290.870.87
Arizona St.P123.813.8156.6756.670.510.51
Washington St.P123.773.7741.3841.38-0.65-0.65
WashingtonP123.753.7551.7251.720.130.13
CaliforniaP122.442.4456.2556.250.300.30
StanfordP122.422.4261.2961.290.550.55
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.741.7458.6258.620.300.30
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.711.7123.3323.33-0.91-0.91
UC IrvineBW1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
MichiganB101.701.7046.6746.67-0.11-0.11
IllinoisB101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
DetroitHorz1.611.6143.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Coppin St.MEAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Portland St.BSky1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC1.571.5750.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC1.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
VCUA101.541.5473.5373.530.720.72
MississippiSEC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
UC RiversideBW0.300.3041.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2424.1424.14-0.12-0.12
UC DavisBW0.220.2279.3179.310.130.13
Cal PolyBW0.200.2040.7440.74-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
UNLVMWC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.160.1693.9493.940.140.14
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
AkronMAC0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
IdahoBSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
PacificWCC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
VermontAE0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02