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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:95.4
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:115
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-625.20.12%
23-729.80.60%
22-839.12.17%
21-949.45.76%
20-1060.810.90%
19-1175.216.70%
18-1290.019.73%
17-13105.417.91%
16-14122.412.71%
15-15139.28.02%
14-16157.13.61%
13-17176.41.19%
12-18194.10.39%
11-19215.90.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Coppin St. (335.2)MEACH107-65W100%0.0
11-17Detroit (152.9)HorzH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Toledo (102.2)MACH78-68W100%0.0
11-24Michigan (136.4)B10N63-70L0%0.0
11-25VCU (25.4)A10N63-77L0%0.0
11-30Portland St. (237.6)BSkyH81-59W100%0.0
12-7Mississippi (99.2)SECH73-79L0%0.0
12-13Illinois (48.3)B10N70-77W100%0.0
12-17Cal St. Northridge (288.3)BWH79-56W100%0.0
12-20Delaware St. (247.4)MEACH0-095%19.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (78.9)BWH0-061%3.4
12-29UC Irvine (199.7)BWH0-083%11.5
1-3Oregon St. (162.8)P12H0-078%8.9
1-8Arizona (16.2)P12H0-041%-2.8
1-10Arizona St. (94.9)P12H0-065%4.4
1-15Washington St. (211.6)P12A0-070%6.3
1-18Washington (40.0)P12A0-028%-6.9
1-22USC (182.0)P12H0-087%13.1
1-24UCLA (68.5)P12H0-062%3.8
1-28Arizona (16.2)P12A0-016%-11.6
1-30Arizona St. (94.9)P12A0-036%-4.3
2-4Washington (40.0)P12H0-056%1.9
2-8Washington St. (211.6)P12H0-090%15.1
2-11USC (182.0)P12A0-064%4.3
2-14UCLA (68.5)P12A0-034%-5.0
2-18Colorado (69.0)P12H0-062%3.6
2-22Utah (12.8)P12H0-032%-5.6
2-25California (57.4)P12A0-032%-5.3
3-1Stanford (66.9)P12A0-034%-4.9
3-4Oregon St. (162.8)P12A0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1227.7226.2354.0553.692.251.94
Oregon St.P120.004.1375.0050.740.000.06
ArizonaP120.594.09100.0081.470.592.57
USCP120.404.0360.0038.140.08-0.96
Washington St.P120.004.0340.0029.73-0.00-1.64
Arizona St.P120.004.0360.0054.570.000.37
UCLAP120.004.0072.7357.790.000.62
WashingtonP120.004.00100.0073.040.001.84
UtahP120.002.4977.7880.080.001.50
CaliforniaP120.002.4990.0066.440.000.82
StanfordP120.002.4975.0058.500.000.42
ColoradoP120.002.4966.6758.310.000.41
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.9037.5065.50-0.000.59
Cal St. NorthridgeBW5.951.8722.2229.68-3.31-0.76
UC IrvineBW0.001.8437.5048.08-0.00-0.07
MichiganB105.861.8350.0040.650.00-0.34
Coppin St.MEAC5.811.780.0015.25-5.81-1.24
DetroitHorz6.141.7850.0051.230.000.04
IllinoisB105.861.7580.0068.153.520.64
Portland St.BSky5.831.7566.6749.881.94-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.7340.0048.37-0.00-0.06
ToledoMAC6.141.7266.6761.502.050.40
VCUA105.831.6966.6770.571.940.70
MississippiSEC5.561.6762.5050.931.390.03
UC RiversideBW0.400.2942.8643.73-0.06-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2936.3638.88-0.00-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2940.0049.99-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.2385.7161.530.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.2166.6754.090.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.2042.8638.02-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1725.0023.97-0.00-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.280.1770.0072.770.110.08
UTEPCUSA0.000.1666.6772.280.000.07
UNLVMWC0.000.1675.0050.770.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.1690.0091.070.000.13
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1520.0037.19-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1566.6776.500.000.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.590.1441.6744.37-0.10-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1420.0029.28-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.1460.0056.780.000.02
OaklandHorz0.280.1430.0032.16-0.11-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1366.6755.660.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.1237.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.590.1240.0050.48-0.120.00
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6738.970.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1144.4435.62-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.560.1140.0050.16-0.110.00
Montana St.BSky0.280.1125.0027.83-0.14-0.05
SeattleWAC0.280.1137.5046.46-0.07-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.008.81-0.00-0.09
RiceCUSA0.000.1116.6725.04-0.00-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1120.0034.02-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.310.1171.4363.540.130.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.1137.5048.87-0.07-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.1172.7373.120.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1150.0039.320.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.1160.0040.460.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1190.9154.060.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.110.007.87-0.00-0.09
MarylandB100.000.1190.9167.700.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7867.330.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1144.4431.65-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0942.8641.92-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0928.5756.75-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0032.64-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.400.0966.6748.960.13-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0930.0044.01-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.310.0950.0056.370.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0916.6733.24-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0942.8638.32-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0944.4444.76-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.61-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0950.0059.880.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0890.0084.620.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5073.580.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0860.0034.930.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0862.5059.460.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0854.5557.610.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0877.7871.830.000.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0828.5736.94-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6743.830.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.310.080.0019.58-0.31-0.05
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.690.000.02
VillanovaBE0.840.08100.0082.310.840.05
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.430.000.06
TCUB120.310.08100.0066.280.310.03
PepperdineWCC0.280.0875.0058.890.140.01
Chicago St.WAC0.280.080.0012.02-0.28-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0866.6770.610.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0094.670.000.07
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0877.7865.350.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.11-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0644.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0077.970.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.400.0611.1129.64-0.31-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0051.40-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.28-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.540.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.23-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.22-0.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.98-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.340.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.48-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.310.0657.1456.210.040.01
DenverSum0.310.0650.0053.980.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.710.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.69-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.56-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.04-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.310.0636.3640.81-0.08-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.230.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0637.5045.89-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.840.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0687.5085.210.230.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.800.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.47-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.090.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.780.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.74-0.00-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.310.0675.0067.080.150.02
BucknellPat0.590.0640.0036.15-0.12-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.470.000.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.890.000.02
SyracuseACC0.310.0666.6757.600.100.01
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.810.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.12-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.440.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.530.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.280.0620.0039.57-0.17-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0687.5054.920.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.04-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.05100.0087.440.000.04
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.760.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0522.2230.96-0.14-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0585.7170.330.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.310.0577.7869.420.170.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0042.80-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5077.040.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0577.7869.890.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.870.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.07-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6766.690.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0585.7172.940.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0037.340.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0536.3633.75-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4361.390.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0542.8652.31-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0577.7862.380.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0555.5647.640.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0537.5038.03-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0570.0071.470.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0550.0033.280.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0057.040.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0560.0034.010.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.280.0550.0046.160.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0533.3338.24-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0533.3340.60-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5055.120.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0525.0025.95-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.400.030.0024.33-0.40-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.24-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.03-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.420.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5654.760.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.280.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.67-0.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0070.220.000.01
HofstraCAA0.310.0377.7878.200.170.02
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.50-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.84-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.310.0390.9171.750.250.01
TowsonCAA0.310.0366.6751.310.100.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3363.36-0.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.80-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.380.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.570.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.89-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.310.030.0037.67-0.31-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1454.700.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.310.0350.0048.630.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.77-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0053.790.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.33-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.310.0355.5635.040.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.030.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0342.8638.50-0.04-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.33-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
SamfordSC0.280.0333.3331.37-0.09-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.710.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.71-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7876.160.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.64-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.250.0360.0065.060.050.01
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0333.3345.72-0.09-0.00
BaylorB120.250.0390.0073.960.200.01
BelmontOVC0.280.0360.0062.430.060.01
BrownIvy0.250.0340.0033.85-0.05-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.310.0342.8650.31-0.040.00
CreightonBE0.310.0372.7351.600.140.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.070.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0360.0061.810.050.01
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0366.6764.900.090.01
Indiana St.MVC0.250.0333.3332.85-0.08-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.530.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0048.84-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.250.0390.0075.760.200.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.35-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0312.5024.75-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.0078.120.220.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0033.13-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0037.520.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0388.8981.120.220.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.77-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0330.0039.75-0.11-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.200.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.360.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.310.030.0034.38-0.31-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
TroySB0.310.0333.3340.58-0.10-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.600.000.01
VirginiaACC0.280.03100.0085.770.280.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0355.5648.830.03-0.00