Oregon

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	48.0
Current RPI:	48
Expected SOS:	101
Current SOS:	101
Current Record:	26-8
Expected Record:	26-8
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	66
Expected OOC SOS:	245

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-8	48.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	83-73	W	100%
11-12	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	80-69	W	100%
11-16	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	H	74-48	W	100%
11-19	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	67-45	W	100%
11-23	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	79-83	W	100%
11-24	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	N	66-77	L	0%
11-29	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	95-78	W	100%
12-1	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	80-59	W	100%
12-8	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	87-35	W	100%
12-15	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	H	60-38	W	100%
12-19	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	91-84	L	0%
12-22	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	91-50	W	100%
12-31	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	56-43	W	100%
1-6	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	66-79	W	100%
1-10	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	70-66	W	100%
1-13	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	68-65	W	100%
1-17	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	74-76	W	100%
1-19	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	67-76	W	100%
1-23	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	68-61	W	100%
1-26	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	81-76	W	100%
1-30	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	76-52	L	0%
2-2	California (54.0)	P12	A	58-54	L	0%
2-7	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	47-48	L	0%
2-9	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	73-64	W	100%
2-13	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	52-65	W	100%
2-16	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	77-79	W	100%
2-21	California (54.0)	P12	H	46-48	L	0%
2-23	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	77-66	W	100%
2-28	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	85-75	W	100%
3-7	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	76-53	L	0%
3-9	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	72-62	L	0%
3-14	Washington (88.0)	P12	N	80-77	W	100%
3-15	Utah (161.0)	P12	N	64-45	W	100%
3-16	UCLA (26.0)	P12	N	69-78	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oregon	P12	26.35	26.35	76.06	76.06	13.73	13.73
Utah	P12	5.15	5.15	42.86	42.86	-0.74	-0.74
Washington	P12	5.10	5.10	60.00	60.00	1.02	1.02
Oregon St.	P12	3.77	3.77	46.67	46.67	-0.25	-0.25
California	P12	3.74	3.74	62.07	62.07	0.90	0.90
Colorado	P12	3.72	3.72	63.33	63.33	0.99	0.99
Washington St.	P12	3.72	3.72	43.33	43.33	-0.50	-0.50
UCLA	P12	3.70	3.70	78.12	78.12	2.08	2.08
Stanford	P12	3.67	3.67	56.67	56.67	0.49	0.49
Arizona	P12	2.38	2.38	80.65	80.65	1.46	1.46
Arizona St.	P12	2.36	2.36	65.62	65.62	0.74	0.74
Southern California	P12	2.32	2.32	45.16	45.16	-0.22	-0.22
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.70	1.70	35.48	35.48	-0.49	-0.49
Idaho St.	BSky	1.69	1.69	17.86	17.86	-1.09	-1.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.64	1.64	75.00	75.00	0.82	0.82
Portland St.	BSky	1.61	1.61	24.00	24.00	-0.84	-0.84
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.61	1.61	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.59	1.59	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Nevada	MWC	1.58	1.58	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Nebraska	B10	1.54	1.54	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.54	1.54	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.52	1.52	40.74	40.74	-0.28	-0.28
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.49	1.49	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	1.47	1.47	65.62	65.62	0.46	0.46
Texas San Antonio	WAC	1.47	1.47	32.26	32.26	-0.52	-0.52
Colorado St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	74.19	74.19	0.12	0.12
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Montana St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.19	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.18	0.18	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	80.00	80.00	0.11	0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Seattle	WAC	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.15	79.31	79.31	0.09	0.09
North Dakota	BSky	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.13	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.04	0.04	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.04	0.04	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.04	0.04	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.04	0.04	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.04	0.04	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.04	0.04	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.04	0.04	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.04	0.04	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.04	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.04	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00