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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:2.0
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:3
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-62.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH80-52W100%0.0
11-16Baylor (25.0)B12H74-67W100%0.0
11-20Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH77-59W100%0.0
11-22Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH73-67W100%0.0
11-25Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH91-68W100%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH78-73W100%0.0
12-4UNLV (147.0)MWCN80-69L0%0.0
12-7Navy (216.0)PatN47-67W100%0.0
12-12Boise St. (101.0)MWCA74-72L0%0.0
12-15UC Irvine (75.0)BWH78-63W100%0.0
12-18Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH94-73W100%0.0
12-21Alabama (73.0)SECA68-72W100%0.0
1-3Oregon St. (33.0)P12A70-57L0%0.0
1-6California (16.0)P12H68-65W100%0.0
1-10Stanford (86.0)P12H71-58W100%0.0
1-14Utah (8.0)P12A59-77W100%0.0
1-17Colorado (35.0)P12A91-87L0%0.0
1-21USC (51.0)P12H89-81W100%0.0
1-23UCLA (102.0)P12H86-72W100%0.0
1-28Arizona (26.0)P12A75-83W100%0.0
1-31Arizona St. (99.0)P12A74-91W100%0.0
2-4Colorado (35.0)P12H76-56W100%0.0
2-7Utah (8.0)P12H76-66W100%0.0
2-11California (16.0)P12A83-63L0%0.0
2-13Stanford (86.0)P12A76-72L0%0.0
2-20Oregon St. (33.0)P12H91-81W100%0.0
2-24Washington St. (212.0)P12H76-62W100%0.0
2-28Washington (83.0)P12H86-73W100%0.0
3-2UCLA (102.0)P12A68-76W100%0.0
3-5USC (51.0)P12A66-76W100%0.0
3-10Washington (83.0)P12N83-77W100%0.0
3-11Arizona (26.0)P12N95-89W100%0.0
3-12Utah (8.0)P12N88-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1226.3126.3184.9684.9618.4018.40
UtahP125.365.3683.3383.333.583.58
ArizonaP123.943.9480.6580.652.422.42
CaliforniaP123.893.8970.9770.971.631.63
Oregon St.P123.883.8860.7160.710.830.83
ColoradoP123.843.8466.6766.671.281.28
USCP123.843.8467.7467.741.361.36
WashingtonP123.843.8460.0060.000.770.77
UCLAP123.823.8250.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP123.813.8148.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Arizona St.P122.382.3848.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Washington St.P122.362.3627.5927.59-1.06-1.06
UNLVMWC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
Long Beach St.BW1.681.6858.0658.060.270.27
Fresno St.MWC1.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
Savannah St.MEAC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW1.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
BaylorB121.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Jackson St.SWAC1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
Arkansas St.SB1.591.5932.1432.14-0.57-0.57
ValparaisoHorz1.571.5782.7682.761.031.03
AlabamaSEC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
NavyPat1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
San Diego St.MWC0.310.3171.8871.880.140.14
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.310.3156.6756.670.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.260.2628.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
NevadaMWC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
KansasB120.190.1987.8887.880.150.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
BYUWCC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
RiceCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
IPFWSum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
LafayettePat0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
PacificWCC0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
PennIvy0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01