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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Oregon

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:28.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:19
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:4
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-928.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Georgetown (69.0)BEN75-82W100%0.0
11-13Western Carolina (221.0)SCH107-83W100%0.0
11-19Utah Valley (144.0)WACH69-54W100%0.0
11-24San Francisco (68.0)WCCH100-82W100%0.0
11-29Pacific (133.0)WCCH85-62W100%0.0
11-30North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH91-76W100%0.0
12-1Cal Poly (208.0)BWH82-61W100%0.0
12-8Mississippi (94.0)SECA105-115W100%0.0
12-14Illinois (70.0)B10N71-64W100%0.0
12-17UC Irvine (111.0)BWH91-63W100%0.0
12-21BYU (31.0)WCCH100-96W100%0.0
12-29Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH97-76W100%0.0
1-2Utah (80.0)P12A68-70W100%0.0
1-5Colorado (34.0)P12A100-91L0%0.0
1-9California (63.0)P12H83-96L0%0.0
1-12Stanford (41.0)P12H80-82L0%0.0
1-19Oregon St. (100.0)P12A80-72L0%0.0
1-23Washington (104.0)P12A80-76L0%0.0
1-26Washington St. (224.0)P12A44-71W100%0.0
1-30UCLA (14.0)P12H68-70L0%0.0
2-1USC (176.0)P12H78-66W100%0.0
2-6Arizona (2.0)P12A67-65L0%0.0
2-8Arizona St. (44.0)P12A74-72L0%0.0
2-16Oregon St. (100.0)P12H93-83W100%0.0
2-19Washington (104.0)P12H78-71W100%0.0
2-23Washington St. (224.0)P12H67-53W100%0.0
2-27UCLA (14.0)P12A83-87W100%0.0
3-1USC (176.0)P12A63-78W100%0.0
3-4Arizona St. (44.0)P12H85-78W100%0.0
3-8Arizona (2.0)P12H64-57W100%0.0
3-12Oregon St. (100.0)P12N88-74W100%0.0
3-13UCLA (14.0)P12N82-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Oregon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Oregon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
OregonP1226.3326.3369.8569.8510.4510.45
Oregon St.P125.415.4153.5753.570.390.39
UCLAP125.405.4077.4277.422.962.96
ArizonaP123.933.9390.6290.623.203.20
WashingtonP123.843.8453.3353.330.260.26
Arizona St.P123.833.8366.6766.671.281.28
USCP123.833.8334.4834.48-1.19-1.19
Washington St.P123.813.8132.1432.14-1.36-1.36
StanfordP122.592.5962.5062.500.650.65
ColoradoP122.492.4966.6766.670.830.83
UtahP122.482.4865.5265.520.770.77
CaliforniaP122.412.4158.0658.060.390.39
UC IrvineBW1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
Cal PolyBW1.761.7637.9337.93-0.42-0.42
BYUWCC1.741.7468.7568.750.650.65
PacificWCC1.741.7450.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC1.691.6965.5265.520.520.52
North DakotaBSky1.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
IllinoisB101.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
MississippiSEC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Utah ValleyWAC1.561.5664.2964.290.450.45
Western CarolinaSC1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
PepperdineWCC0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.250.2543.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.2467.8667.860.090.09
GonzagaWCC0.230.2381.8281.820.150.15
PortlandWCC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
DePaulBE0.200.2036.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
HawaiiBW0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
ElonSC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
IndianaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
UNLVMWC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.073.573.57-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
HoustonAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
UICHorz0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00