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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:258.1
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:112
Current Record:5-13
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16197.00.11%
11-17211.20.87%
10-18226.05.52%
9-19239.716.72%
8-20253.630.01%
7-21267.229.32%
6-22279.614.76%
5-23291.32.68%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Portland St. (122.1)BSkyH75-80L0%0.0
11-23North Carolina (6.7)ACCN78-102L0%0.0
11-24Oklahoma (22.3)B12N71-93L0%0.0
11-26DePaul (187.4)BEN69-82L0%0.0
12-3Boise St. (39.3)MWCA77-54L0%0.0
12-6Cal St. Fullerton (160.5)BWH66-76L0%0.0
12-9San Jose St. (304.5)MWCH64-55W100%0.0
12-16Seattle (199.9)WACA89-76L0%0.0
12-19Hartford (253.6)AEH78-67W100%0.0
12-21Sacramento St. (279.9)BSkyN75-80W100%0.0
12-28BYU (63.2)WCCA69-45L0%0.0
12-30San Francisco (171.7)WCCH61-84L0%0.0
1-4San Diego (143.0)WCCH74-81L0%0.0
1-6Santa Clara (258.4)WCCA70-68L0%0.0
1-11Gonzaga (33.9)WCCA103-57L0%0.0
1-13Pacific (173.3)WCCH54-66L0%0.0
1-18San Diego (143.0)WCCA49-55W100%0.0
1-20Loyola Marymount (262.8)WCCA65-72W100%0.0
1-25Gonzaga (33.9)WCCH0-02%-22.5
1-27Saint Mary's (34.7)WCCA0-01%-24.7
2-1Pepperdine (308.1)WCCH0-061%3.0
2-3Loyola Marymount (262.8)WCCH0-055%1.5
2-8San Francisco (171.7)WCCA0-014%-12.1
2-10Pacific (173.3)WCCA0-021%-8.8
2-15Santa Clara (258.4)WCCH0-055%1.3
2-17Saint Mary's (34.7)WCCH0-05%-18.3
2-22BYU (63.2)WCCH0-011%-13.5
2-24Pepperdine (308.1)WCCA0-038%-3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC26.4826.4027.7825.73-11.77-12.81
Saint Mary'sWCC0.894.6790.4888.420.723.59
Loyola MarymountWCC3.514.6329.4129.61-1.45-1.89
Santa ClaraWCC3.294.5929.4129.90-1.35-1.85
San FranciscoWCC3.294.5747.3745.56-0.17-0.41
San DiegoWCC5.924.5764.7158.091.740.74
BYUWCC3.224.5480.0074.981.932.27
GonzagaWCC3.154.5480.0082.181.892.92
PacificWCC3.134.5442.1141.29-0.49-0.79
PepperdineWCC0.564.5310.5315.94-0.45-3.09
Sacramento St.BSky3.092.0317.6525.31-2.00-1.00
San Jose St.MWC3.002.0012.5013.27-2.25-1.47
Portland St.BSky3.011.9756.2561.850.380.47
Cal St. FullertonBW2.931.9453.3355.090.200.20
Boise St.MWC2.931.9177.7876.161.631.00
SeattleWAC2.781.8455.5652.820.310.10
DePaulBE2.781.7938.8932.03-0.62-0.64
HartfordAE2.781.7952.6347.570.15-0.09
North CarolinaACC2.781.7975.0071.651.390.77
OklahomaB122.781.7976.4766.931.470.60
UC RiversideBW0.390.3217.6523.84-0.25-0.17
NevadaMWC0.370.3185.7182.120.260.20
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.380.2870.5969.630.160.11
UC DavisBW0.370.2858.8262.450.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.440.2858.8262.830.080.07
Utah St.MWC0.370.2745.0045.47-0.04-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.380.2543.7540.91-0.05-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.220.2456.2557.430.030.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.300.2238.8946.05-0.07-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.160.1923.5328.20-0.09-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.1966.6766.030.080.06
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1940.0043.34-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.240.1964.7166.850.070.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.1911.1115.30-0.17-0.13
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1937.5033.77-0.04-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.150.1837.5031.78-0.04-0.07
UNLVMWC0.220.1873.6865.250.110.06
WyomingMWC0.140.1861.1156.790.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.1883.3384.250.150.13
StanfordP120.290.1855.0050.330.030.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1617.6519.29-0.10-0.10
Colorado St.MWC0.230.1645.0041.31-0.02-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.290.1670.0071.220.120.07
CaliforniaP120.240.1636.8431.11-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.220.1570.0061.460.090.04
USCP120.240.1371.4368.300.100.05
UC IrvineBW0.090.1330.0039.95-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.160.1370.5973.150.070.06
Montana St.BSky0.160.1350.0047.650.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.150.1345.0048.57-0.02-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1258.8257.130.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1233.3339.89-0.05-0.02
OregonP120.310.1265.0063.810.090.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.127.6920.08-0.12-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1260.0062.010.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1268.4254.040.060.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.1229.4134.78-0.03-0.04
Arizona St.P120.140.1278.9576.160.080.06
CreightonBE0.070.1275.0070.720.030.05
St. Francis PANEC0.070.1252.9459.250.000.02
TexasB120.070.1265.0058.600.020.02
VillanovaBE0.140.1294.7490.310.120.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1220.0040.93-0.08-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0971.4374.670.030.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0966.6755.900.030.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0937.5046.70-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.150.0966.6763.070.050.02
North TexasCUSA0.220.0944.4446.66-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0957.8946.220.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0989.4785.240.060.06
Washington St.P120.070.0947.3741.43-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0947.3746.09-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0968.4259.020.020.02
Notre DameACC0.140.0963.1661.000.040.02
Ohio St.B100.130.0981.8276.870.080.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0768.7564.010.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.200.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.06-0.07-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.24-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0657.8950.860.010.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0643.7549.11-0.01-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.76-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0666.6763.450.020.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.250.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.150.0660.0053.720.030.00
Little RockSB0.150.0622.2225.19-0.08-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.0640.0042.51-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.83-0.05-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3340.100.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0617.6534.76-0.09-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0630.0032.540.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.0657.1460.410.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.19-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.970.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.87-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.550.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.870.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0652.3848.530.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.140.0647.0641.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0665.0054.600.040.01
BaylorB120.000.0657.8953.280.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0661.9063.170.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0645.0049.28-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.080.030.00
KansasB120.000.0684.2179.760.000.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0675.0065.320.040.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.530.030.01
NorthwesternB100.150.0655.0050.370.020.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0670.0060.470.030.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0657.8958.880.010.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0067.910.000.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.150.0675.0067.830.080.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0657.8950.210.010.00
Texas TechB120.080.0678.9571.750.040.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0680.0076.040.050.03
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.060.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.140.0668.4264.160.050.02
Michigan St.B100.140.0685.7183.760.100.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.180.050.03
DaytonA100.000.0647.3750.940.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.600.030.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5326.29-0.05-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.82-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.26-0.07-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.040.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0665.0056.350.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0652.9460.230.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0652.6358.610.000.01
UtahP120.070.0663.1659.720.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.47-0.03-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.99-0.04-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.03-0.02-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.90-0.05-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.390.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.400.040.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.0052.480.010.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.200.040.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.82-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.330.020.01
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.650.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.48-0.03-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0051.640.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.610.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.560.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.0016.77-0.06-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.710.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.008.42-0.07-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0341.1839.66-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0378.9577.380.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.000.020.01
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.440.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.660.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.820.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7870.410.000.01
MichiganB100.070.0376.1970.800.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.880.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.870.020.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.110.060.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0370.0060.400.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.38-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.660.020.01