Portland

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	231.0
Current RPI:	231
Expected SOS:	119
Current SOS:	119
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Conf Record:	4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-5
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	237
Expected OOC SOS:	178

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	231.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	81-52	L	0%
11-15	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	51-48	W	100%
11-18	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	83-64	L	0%
11-21	Portland St. (339.0)	BSky	H	81-60	W	100%
11-25	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	69-54	L	0%
12-1	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	72-60	L	0%
12-4	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	60-68	L	0%
12-8	Kentucky (56.0)	SEC	A	74-46	L	0%
12-17	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	69-51	W	100%
12-19	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	74-64	W	100%
12-22	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	N	53-70	L	0%
12-23	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	N	57-55	W	100%
12-29	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	52-56	L	0%
1-3	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	61-50	L	0%
1-5	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	54-47	L	0%
1-12	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	64-68	W	100%
1-17	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	49-71	L	0%
1-19	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	38-60	L	0%
1-24	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	72-75	L	0%
1-26	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	67-85	L	0%
1-31	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	70-46	L	0%
2-2	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	77-42	L	0%
2-7	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	69-60	W	100%
2-9	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	68-72	L	0%
2-14	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	76-78	W	100%
2-16	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	86-72	L	0%
2-21	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	70-67	W	100%
2-23	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	63-75	L	0%
3-2	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	81-52	L	0%
3-6	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	N	54-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Portland	WCC	26.35	26.35	27.21	27.21	-12.01	-12.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	6.02	6.02	31.03	31.03	-2.28	-2.28
San Diego	WCC	4.31	4.31	43.33	43.33	-0.57	-0.57
Gonzaga	WCC	4.30	4.30	93.33	93.33	3.73	3.73
St. Mary's	WCC	4.25	4.25	80.00	80.00	2.55	2.55
Santa Clara	WCC	4.25	4.25	60.71	60.71	0.91	0.91
Pepperdine	WCC	4.24	4.24	33.33	33.33	-1.41	-1.41
San Francisco	WCC	4.21	4.21	44.44	44.44	-0.47	-0.47
Brigham Young	WCC	4.20	4.20	62.07	62.07	1.01	1.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.99	1.99	40.00	40.00	-0.40	-0.40
Portland St.	BSky	1.86	1.86	24.00	24.00	-0.97	-0.97
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.85	1.85	71.88	71.88	0.81	0.81
Colorado St.	MWC	1.85	1.85	73.33	73.33	0.86	0.86
Montana St.	BSky	1.85	1.85	37.04	37.04	-0.48	-0.48
Idaho St.	BSky	1.82	1.82	17.86	17.86	-1.17	-1.17
Washington St.	P12	1.80	1.80	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
New Mexico	MWC	1.80	1.80	84.85	84.85	1.25	1.25
North Florida	ASun	1.73	1.73	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Texas Pan American	GWC	1.72	1.72	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Bradley	MVC	1.70	1.70	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Ohio	MAC	1.67	1.67	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Montana	BSky	0.37	0.37	79.31	79.31	0.22	0.22
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.34	0.34	34.38	34.38	-0.11	-0.11
San Diego St.	MWC	0.32	0.32	66.67	66.67	0.11	0.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.31	0.31	32.26	32.26	-0.11	-0.11
Southern Utah	BSky	0.29	0.29	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Pacific	BW	0.27	0.27	62.50	62.50	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.26	0.26	35.71	35.71	-0.08	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	80.00	80.00	0.14	0.14
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.21	0.21	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.19	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
St. Louis	A10	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01