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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:240.6
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:192
Current Record:10-15
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:5-8
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15185.60.07%
14-16202.91.23%
13-17218.010.90%
12-18233.139.98%
11-19249.837.35%
10-20264.910.46%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UC Davis (254.1)BWA79-66L0%0.0
11-20Colorado (44.5)P12A85-63L0%0.0
11-22Abilene Christian (318.1)SlndH87-57W100%0.0
11-24Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACH97-65W100%0.0
11-27Colorado St. (180.3)MWCN90-74L0%0.0
11-28Southern Illinois (138.9)MVCN79-80L0%0.0
12-2Portland St. (281.8)BSkyA72-78W100%0.0
12-5Boise St. (88.3)MWCH71-81L0%0.0
12-8Idaho St. (273.3)BSkyH65-66L0%0.0
12-12Sacramento St. (249.9)BSkyH81-73W100%0.0
12-18Weber St. (138.2)BSkyH82-92L0%0.0
12-19Cal St. Fullerton (284.0)BWH65-60W100%0.0
12-21Loyola Marymount (242.9)WCCH87-60W100%0.0
12-23Pepperdine (126.5)WCCH87-79W100%0.0
12-31San Francisco (227.6)WCCA107-95L0%0.0
1-2Santa Clara (262.9)WCCA84-77L0%0.0
1-9Gonzaga (49.0)WCCA85-74L0%0.0
1-14San Diego (288.9)WCCH71-82L0%0.0
1-16BYU (72.0)WCCH84-81W100%0.0
1-21Pacific (242.2)WCCA70-61L0%0.0
1-23Saint Mary's (39.0)WCCA89-74L0%0.0
1-28San Francisco (227.6)WCCH76-87L0%0.0
1-30Santa Clara (262.9)WCCH84-90L0%0.0
2-4Pepperdine (126.5)WCCA70-73W100%0.0
2-6Loyola Marymount (242.9)WCCA78-92W100%0.0
2-11Gonzaga (49.0)WCCH0-012%-12.8
2-18Saint Mary's (39.0)WCCH0-011%-13.1
2-20Pacific (242.2)WCCH0-066%4.4
2-25BYU (72.0)WCCA0-09%-14.7
2-27San Diego (288.9)WCCA0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC26.5126.4336.5234.95-7.15-7.96
Loyola MarymountWCC4.824.4042.8641.54-0.69-0.75
BYUWCC2.864.3569.5771.221.121.85
San DiegoWCC2.864.3428.5725.88-1.23-2.10
PacificWCC2.774.3421.0525.70-1.60-2.11
Saint Mary'sWCC2.724.3185.0084.681.902.99
GonzagaWCC2.894.2977.2775.521.582.19
Santa ClaraWCC4.634.2923.8126.09-2.42-2.05
PepperdineWCC4.624.2861.9061.681.101.00
San FranciscoWCC4.624.2850.0046.260.00-0.32
Cal St. FullertonBW2.422.0036.8433.51-0.64-0.66
Sacramento St.BSky2.361.9744.4447.45-0.26-0.10
UC DavisBW2.341.9436.8434.33-0.62-0.61
Weber St.BSky2.251.9163.1668.140.590.69
Portland St.BSky2.261.8833.3339.17-0.75-0.41
Idaho St.BSky2.211.8542.1144.12-0.35-0.22
Colorado St.MWC2.231.8450.0048.650.00-0.05
Boise St.MWC2.181.8161.9061.190.520.41
ColoradoP122.091.7568.1864.170.760.50
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.051.7036.8436.06-0.54-0.47
Alcorn St.SWAC2.001.6742.1141.85-0.32-0.27
Southern IllinoisMVC2.001.6770.8369.530.830.65
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.510.4228.5728.54-0.22-0.18
UC IrvineBW0.420.4072.7371.620.190.17
MontanaBSky0.480.3957.8962.300.080.10
UC RiversideBW0.510.3345.8341.65-0.04-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.250.3152.3854.010.010.02
NevadaMWC0.330.3055.0054.530.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.200.2715.0015.35-0.14-0.19
Long Beach St.BW0.230.2745.4551.34-0.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.2710.0013.14-0.15-0.20
ArizonaP120.270.2679.1778.350.160.15
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2461.9059.630.070.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.290.2428.5726.96-0.12-0.11
San Jose St.MWC0.270.2325.0022.75-0.14-0.13
Utah St.MWC0.280.2345.0046.78-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.160.2154.5554.950.010.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.2133.3334.94-0.08-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.150.1930.0034.56-0.06-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.210.1840.9143.71-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1842.8650.39-0.020.00
North DakotaBSky0.200.1847.3749.98-0.01-0.00
DenverSum0.230.1854.1751.800.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1772.7372.060.080.08
DrakeMVC0.230.1721.7423.66-0.13-0.09
Washington St.P120.190.1736.3631.98-0.05-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.230.1745.4538.46-0.02-0.04
StanfordP120.190.1550.0046.620.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.220.1561.9056.420.050.02
UCLAP120.130.1456.5253.240.020.01
WashingtonP120.140.1465.2261.090.040.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.1460.8763.000.020.04
UtahP120.140.1469.5767.490.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1454.1755.070.010.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1284.2181.700.070.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1224.0025.69-0.07-0.06
OaklandHorz0.190.1268.0067.980.070.04
CaliforniaP120.130.1265.2262.840.040.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.1220.0022.32-0.05-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.180.1245.4549.70-0.02-0.00
UNLVMWC0.090.1150.0055.190.000.01
WyomingMWC0.090.1143.4842.49-0.01-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1143.4842.62-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1175.0076.230.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0966.6767.690.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.0952.9452.160.010.00
SeattleWAC0.150.0947.6245.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.150.0930.0029.25-0.06-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0925.0025.09-0.07-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0945.0049.42-0.01-0.00
USCP120.050.0978.2673.050.030.04
UTEPCUSA0.140.0952.1751.940.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0913.6415.79-0.09-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0950.0051.190.000.00
SMUAmer0.040.0990.9186.160.040.06
OregonP120.130.0882.6179.220.090.05
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.5012.85-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.000.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.90-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.37-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0615.0018.08-0.07-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0682.6181.140.070.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0650.0049.770.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.210.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0642.8642.01-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.12-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0615.0026.98-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.300.010.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0676.1972.290.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0663.6462.150.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0614.2915.45-0.07-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0663.6459.220.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0614.2920.64-0.06-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.25-0.07-0.04
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.6418.14-0.03-0.04
DuquesneA100.090.0663.6456.440.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.065.007.23-0.08-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0625.0024.35-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0657.8961.750.010.01
RiceCUSA0.090.0628.5729.68-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0677.2776.870.050.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0633.3335.47-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.640.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0618.1821.06-0.06-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.66-0.06-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0630.4326.54-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0673.9172.490.020.03
LipscombASun0.090.0625.0029.27-0.04-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0659.0959.640.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0640.0045.50-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0647.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0678.2678.050.020.03
BelmontOVC0.040.0666.6766.540.010.02
HarvardIvy0.040.0635.0038.49-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0554.1750.940.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0552.1751.960.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0539.1337.73-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0533.3333.02-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0572.7376.360.040.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.79-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.21-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.850.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.980.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0327.7834.19-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.02
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.31-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.630.020.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.030.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.040.0340.9136.60-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0359.0961.320.010.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0373.9170.050.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0356.5256.320.010.00
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0363.6459.460.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01