live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:160.1
Current RPI:240
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:347
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-531.50.02%
22-642.50.02%
21-756.30.29%
20-870.40.68%
19-981.42.08%
18-1097.94.96%
17-11112.88.68%
16-12128.413.39%
15-13146.016.61%
14-14163.517.16%
13-15182.515.20%
12-16202.310.15%
11-17222.75.97%
10-18243.93.29%
9-19261.31.12%
8-20283.00.33%
7-21280.70.03%
5-23316.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16San Jose St. (312.0)MWCA68-73W100%0.0
11-22SIU Edwardsville (304.4)OVCH75-53W100%0.0
11-28Murray St. (129.2)OVCN0-044%-1.9
11-29Drake (269.3)MVCN0-078%9.3
11-30Valparaiso (169.9)HorzN0-053%1.0
12-3Portland St. (173.5)BSkyH0-073%7.4
12-6Oregon St. (212.7)P12H0-064%4.4
12-14Sacramento St. (221.2)BSkyA0-061%3.2
12-17UNLV (123.3)MWCA0-035%-4.6
12-20Montana St. (313.5)BSkyH0-092%17.3
12-27San Diego (115.3)WCCA0-029%-6.6
12-29BYU (41.5)WCCA0-013%-13.5
1-3Gonzaga (16.4)WCCH0-013%-13.4
1-8Santa Clara (207.8)WCCH0-068%5.5
1-10San Francisco (96.2)WCCH0-045%-1.6
1-15Loyola Marymount (241.8)WCCA0-061%3.2
1-17Pepperdine (138.2)WCCA0-031%-5.9
1-22Pacific (231.9)WCCH0-076%8.5
1-24Saint Mary's (47.5)WCCH0-035%-4.6
1-29Gonzaga (16.4)WCCA0-04%-20.6
2-5San Francisco (96.2)WCCA0-023%-8.8
2-7Santa Clara (207.8)WCCA0-045%-1.6
2-12Pepperdine (138.2)WCCH0-054%1.3
2-14Loyola Marymount (241.8)WCCH0-081%10.4
2-19Saint Mary's (47.5)WCCA0-016%-11.8
2-21Pacific (231.9)WCCA0-054%1.3
2-26BYU (41.5)WCCH0-030%-6.3
2-28San Diego (115.3)WCCH0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC32.2926.49100.0050.4232.290.22
San FranciscoWCC0.004.6550.0058.940.000.83
GonzagaWCC0.004.65100.0088.410.003.57
PepperdineWCC3.124.6566.6754.801.040.45
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.6425.0037.39-0.00-1.17
BYUWCC0.004.6250.0066.830.001.55
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.61100.0071.020.001.94
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.6150.0024.960.00-2.31
San DiegoWCC0.004.6160.0049.500.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.004.6033.3331.96-0.00-1.66
Portland St.BSky4.171.98100.0058.394.170.33
San Jose St.MWC25.001.980.0018.48-25.00-1.25
Sacramento St.BSky0.001.9550.0045.390.00-0.18
Murray St.OVC0.001.9233.3367.98-0.000.69
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC25.001.880.0034.81-25.00-0.57
UNLVMWC0.001.8575.0051.240.000.05
Montana St.BSky0.001.850.0020.98-0.00-1.08
DrakeMVC0.001.8525.0023.99-0.00-0.96
ValparaisoHorz0.001.8575.0056.450.000.24
Oregon St.P120.001.7950.0043.000.00-0.25
Boise St.MWC0.000.3280.0063.470.000.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.3020.0050.32-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2725.0043.27-0.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.2660.0055.000.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2680.0074.820.000.13
Cal PolyBW0.000.2633.3334.34-0.00-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.000.2333.3366.19-0.000.08
Fresno St.MWC0.000.230.0023.13-0.00-0.13
North DakotaBSky0.000.2333.3351.25-0.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.2325.0022.65-0.00-0.12
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2283.3384.390.000.15
Arizona St.P120.000.2260.0053.400.000.02
UCLAP120.000.2266.6758.390.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.200.0023.57-0.00-0.11
Cal St. FullertonBW3.120.2040.0037.90-0.62-0.05
NevadaMWC0.000.2025.0043.15-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.2033.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.200.0051.90-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.200.0016.54-0.00-0.13
MontanaBSky0.000.1933.3351.33-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1925.0052.78-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.19100.0069.490.000.07
StanfordP120.000.1980.0071.340.000.08
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1750.0048.100.00-0.01
WashingtonP123.120.17100.0057.933.120.03
USCP120.000.1650.0029.750.00-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.16100.0057.070.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1675.0069.010.000.06
ArizonaP120.000.15100.0076.220.000.08
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1420.0039.02-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.140.0035.88-0.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1466.6741.200.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0023.83-0.00-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.000.1380.0067.100.000.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1340.0047.94-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1333.3337.74-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1333.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.13100.0083.180.000.08
New MexicoMWC0.000.1360.0056.430.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1325.0049.53-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.1271.4356.020.000.01
UtahP120.000.1275.0073.700.000.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1020.0034.53-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0069.610.000.04
XavierBE0.000.10100.0078.730.000.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1033.3358.80-0.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1033.3364.43-0.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1075.0050.750.000.00
OregonP120.000.1060.0063.290.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0975.0078.500.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.0940.0030.22-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0950.0064.460.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0060.510.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0780.0074.350.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0766.6746.480.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0780.0075.550.000.03
IPFWSum4.170.0766.6762.481.390.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0725.0031.20-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0025.08-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.530.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0019.02-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0035.74-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.160.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.220.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0070.920.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.26-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0048.990.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.660.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0031.400.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6725.500.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0660.0056.890.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0023.72-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0660.0040.420.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0054.55-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0042.050.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3366.830.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3348.21-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0077.870.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.400.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0036.580.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.590.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.81-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0620.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0041.21-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.79-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0035.96-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0055.370.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.040.0018.96-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0475.0046.860.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0052.620.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.50-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.17-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.90-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6732.00-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.51-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.150.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.880.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.84-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.39-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0340.0045.07-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.710.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0059.990.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.98-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0046.34-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0061.130.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.38-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.46-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.410.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.51-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0056.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0325.0028.63-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0053.140.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.340.000.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.020.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00