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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:149.0
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:111
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:233



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15149.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA68-73W100%0.0
11-22SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH75-53W100%0.0
11-28Murray St. (63.0)OVCN64-61W100%0.0
11-29Drake (269.0)MVCN59-71W100%0.0
11-30Valparaiso (50.0)HorzN70-55L0%0.0
12-3Portland St. (225.0)BSkyH83-71W100%0.0
12-6Oregon St. (133.0)P12H58-65L0%0.0
12-14Sacramento St. (141.0)BSkyA75-80W100%0.0
12-17UNLV (114.0)MWCA75-73L0%0.0
12-20Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH87-60W100%0.0
12-27San Diego (157.0)WCCA58-61W100%0.0
12-29BYU (36.0)WCCA97-88L0%0.0
1-3Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH75-87L0%0.0
1-8Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH78-61W100%0.0
1-10San Francisco (181.0)WCCH77-89L0%0.0
1-15Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA80-68L0%0.0
1-17Pepperdine (134.0)WCCA67-63L0%0.0
1-22Pacific (241.0)WCCH72-69W100%0.0
1-24Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH64-74L0%0.0
1-29Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA64-46L0%0.0
2-5San Francisco (181.0)WCCA57-69W100%0.0
2-7Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA54-74W100%0.0
2-12Pepperdine (134.0)WCCH69-52W100%0.0
2-14Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH66-63W100%0.0
2-19Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA68-51L0%0.0
2-21Pacific (241.0)WCCA79-77L0%0.0
2-26BYU (36.0)WCCH69-82L0%0.0
2-28San Diego (157.0)WCCH66-78L0%0.0
3-7Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCN52-69W100%0.0
3-9BYU (36.0)WCCN84-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC26.5526.5549.3149.31-0.37-0.37
BYUWCC6.056.0568.9768.972.302.30
Saint Mary'sWCC5.935.9369.2369.232.282.28
GonzagaWCC4.554.5593.5593.553.963.96
Santa ClaraWCC4.494.4942.8642.86-0.64-0.64
San FranciscoWCC4.474.4741.3841.38-0.77-0.77
PepperdineWCC4.464.4657.1457.140.640.64
Loyola MarymountWCC4.384.3821.4321.43-2.50-2.50
San DiegoWCC4.384.3846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
PacificWCC4.374.3730.7730.77-1.68-1.68
Portland St.BSky1.871.8750.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky1.841.8464.2964.290.530.53
San Jose St.MWC1.831.830.000.00-1.83-1.83
Murray St.OVC1.791.7986.2186.211.291.29
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.751.7540.0040.00-0.35-0.35
Montana St.BSky1.731.7321.4321.43-0.99-0.99
UNLVMWC1.731.7351.6151.610.060.06
DrakeMVC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
ValparaisoHorz1.721.7282.7682.761.131.13
Oregon St.P121.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.310.3174.1974.190.150.15
Northern ArizonaBSky0.290.2956.2556.250.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.260.2674.1974.190.130.13
Cal PolyBW0.250.2540.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.240.2475.7675.760.120.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.200.2021.4321.43-0.12-0.12
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
StanfordP120.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
IdahoBSky0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1817.8617.86-0.11-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
WyomingMWC0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
WashingtonP120.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
St. John'sBE0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
ArizonaP120.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
UtahP120.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
HawaiiBW0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
CreightonBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01