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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:108.8
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:163
Current Record:3-2
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-630.70.03%
23-739.80.38%
22-848.51.26%
21-958.53.53%
20-1069.67.99%
19-1181.913.23%
18-1294.818.59%
17-13109.418.10%
16-14124.415.85%
15-15140.511.01%
14-16158.26.04%
13-17176.42.44%
12-18195.41.07%
11-19214.60.36%
10-20235.20.09%
9-21230.00.01%
8-22266.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Riverside (291.2)BWH71-55W100%0.0
11-15San Jose St. (205.1)MWCA66-79W100%0.0
11-24UCLA (19.0)P12N99-77L0%0.0
11-25Dayton (36.4)A10N74-84L0%0.0
11-27Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWN96-78W100%0.0
12-3Colorado (84.8)P12H0-041%-2.6
12-5UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACH0-094%18.9
12-10Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-034%-4.8
12-16South Dakota (218.7)SumN0-073%7.3
12-18Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-065%4.5
12-20Portland St. (293.2)BSkyH0-089%14.7
12-22Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWA0-080%10.0
12-29Pacific (155.8)WCCA0-051%0.4
12-31Pepperdine (185.5)WCCH0-080%10.0
1-5Santa Clara (214.8)WCCA0-060%2.9
1-7Gonzaga (10.2)WCCH0-016%-12.1
1-12Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCH0-022%-9.4
1-14Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCH0-071%6.7
1-19San Francisco (170.5)WCCA0-056%1.9
1-21Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA0-06%-18.2
1-26Pepperdine (185.5)WCCA0-062%3.8
1-28San Diego (251.2)WCCH0-088%14.3
2-2Santa Clara (214.8)WCCH0-078%9.1
2-4BYU (66.1)WCCA0-024%-8.5
2-9Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCA0-010%-15.6
2-11Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCA0-052%0.5
2-16Pacific (155.8)WCCH0-071%6.6
2-18San Francisco (170.5)WCCH0-075%8.1
2-23BYU (66.1)WCCH0-042%-2.3
2-25San Diego (251.2)WCCA0-075%8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC29.5426.3860.0057.565.913.99
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.3333.3346.13-0.00-0.34
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.3137.5036.59-0.00-1.16
PacificWCC0.624.3050.0049.740.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC1.834.30100.0089.401.833.39
San DiegoWCC0.624.3028.5728.18-0.27-1.88
BYUWCC0.004.2871.4368.790.001.61
GonzagaWCC0.004.27100.0091.210.003.52
PepperdineWCC0.004.2750.0035.690.00-1.22
San FranciscoWCC0.004.2783.3352.000.000.17
Cal St. FullertonBW0.001.9416.6730.40-0.00-0.76
UCLAP1212.081.93100.0083.0012.081.27
Cal St. NorthridgeBW10.631.9120.0044.95-6.38-0.19
Portland St.BSky0.001.9025.0041.54-0.00-0.32
UC RiversideBW10.631.870.0034.76-10.63-0.57
San Jose St.MWC10.001.8450.0038.880.00-0.41
Boise St.MWC0.001.8250.0058.740.000.32
ColoradoP120.001.8071.4359.890.000.36
Oregon St.P120.001.7828.5723.36-0.00-0.95
DaytonA1010.001.7260.0071.452.000.74
South DakotaSum0.001.7257.1447.940.00-0.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.001.7025.0024.97-0.00-0.85
UC IrvineBW0.000.3650.0054.690.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.330.0033.44-0.00-0.11
NevadaMWC0.000.3275.0070.470.000.13
USCP120.000.31100.0075.380.000.16
Long Beach St.BW0.620.300.0039.35-0.62-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.000.2533.3335.92-0.00-0.07
UC DavisBW0.000.2457.1448.410.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.240.0021.30-0.00-0.14
UtahP121.250.2375.0061.040.620.05
StanfordP120.830.2375.0059.100.420.04
WashingtonP120.000.2257.1452.630.000.01
Washington St.P121.000.2250.0036.820.00-0.06
ArizonaP120.000.2285.7170.990.000.09
MontanaBSky0.000.2114.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.2183.3361.490.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2075.0074.990.000.10
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2060.0039.610.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.2060.0058.950.000.04
OregonP120.000.1971.4366.730.000.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1950.0050.940.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0023.26-0.00-0.10
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1814.2928.15-0.00-0.08
WyomingMWC0.000.1760.0048.590.00-0.00
UNLVMWC1.250.1571.4349.590.54-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1516.6740.71-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC1.670.1571.4358.670.710.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1550.0042.710.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1514.2929.81-0.00-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1550.0059.670.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.1420.0054.94-0.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.1450.0053.560.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1457.1436.050.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.1483.3363.610.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.1250.0062.460.000.03
DenverSum1.000.1233.3341.11-0.33-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1266.6751.460.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1233.3348.73-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.1260.0043.970.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1271.4368.100.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.12100.0069.770.000.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1257.1464.940.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1166.6770.740.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1133.3326.75-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7174.430.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0056.260.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6737.09-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0920.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0916.6732.62-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB101.460.0850.0043.610.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3358.080.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
IdahoBSky1.000.0640.0050.88-0.200.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Texas A&MSEC1.460.0666.6766.100.490.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0528.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0525.0063.95-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.830.0342.8645.30-0.12-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.830.0366.6756.020.280.00
Austin PeayOVC0.830.0340.0041.65-0.17-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01