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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:144
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16178.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UC Davis (326.0)BWH100-83W100%0.0
11-13Oregon St. (100.0)P12A79-73L0%0.0
11-18Michigan St. (18.0)B10A82-67L0%0.0
11-21Idaho (238.0)WACH88-74W100%0.0
11-22Columbia (130.0)IvyH69-52W100%0.0
11-23North Texas (195.0)CUSAH72-77L0%0.0
11-27San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH86-69W100%0.0
12-1Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH86-57W100%0.0
12-7Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA76-92W100%0.0
12-15Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH69-72L0%0.0
12-20Bradley (265.0)MVCN74-53W100%0.0
12-21Princeton (122.0)IvyN79-93W100%0.0
12-28San Francisco (68.0)WCCH81-87L0%0.0
12-30Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH68-76L0%0.0
1-2Pacific (133.0)WCCH72-64W100%0.0
1-4Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH63-72L0%0.0
1-9Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH82-73W100%0.0
1-16Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA57-71W100%0.0
1-18Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA76-65L0%0.0
1-23BYU (31.0)WCCH114-110W100%0.0
1-25San Diego (156.0)WCCH63-65L0%0.0
1-29San Francisco (68.0)WCCA84-71L0%0.0
2-1Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA64-76W100%0.0
2-5Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA71-66L0%0.0
2-13Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH71-64W100%0.0
2-15Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH74-62W100%0.0
2-20San Diego (156.0)WCCA61-59L0%0.0
2-22BYU (31.0)WCCA89-72L0%0.0
2-27Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA70-61L0%0.0
3-1Pacific (133.0)WCCA68-65L0%0.0
3-6Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCN64-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC26.3926.3945.1945.19-2.54-2.54
Loyola MarymountWCC5.725.7239.2939.29-1.23-1.23
BYUWCC4.334.3367.7467.741.541.54
GonzagaWCC4.274.2783.8783.872.892.89
Santa ClaraWCC4.244.2437.9337.93-1.02-1.02
Saint Mary'sWCC4.224.2263.3363.331.121.12
PacificWCC4.214.2148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
San FranciscoWCC4.214.2160.7160.710.900.90
San DiegoWCC4.194.1942.8642.86-0.60-0.60
PepperdineWCC4.194.1946.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Portland St.BSky1.781.7853.5753.570.130.13
Southern UtahBSky1.781.783.703.70-1.65-1.65
ColumbiaIvy1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
San Jose St.MWC1.751.7517.8617.86-1.12-1.12
Montana St.BSky1.731.7339.2939.29-0.37-0.37
IdahoWAC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
PrincetonIvy1.721.7273.0873.080.790.79
North TexasCUSA1.711.7142.8642.86-0.24-0.24
UC DavisBW1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
BradleyMVC1.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Michigan St.B101.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Oregon St.P121.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.300.3053.5753.570.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.250.2560.7160.710.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.240.2436.6736.67-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
UNLVMWC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
CornellIvy0.110.113.703.70-0.11-0.11
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
PennIvy0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1078.5778.570.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01