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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:183.7
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:243
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-663.00.01%
20-876.00.02%
19-988.40.35%
18-10105.31.40%
17-11120.24.19%
16-12137.38.72%
15-13156.015.54%
14-14174.220.40%
13-15193.920.27%
12-16213.515.82%
11-17232.88.74%
10-18251.33.33%
9-19266.80.99%
8-20282.70.21%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16San Jose St. (327.7)MWCA68-73W100%0.0
11-22SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCH75-53W100%0.0
11-28Murray St. (160.4)OVCN64-61W100%0.0
11-29Drake (284.8)MVCN59-71W100%0.0
11-30Valparaiso (100.6)HorzN70-55L0%0.0
12-3Portland St. (270.4)BSkyH83-71W100%0.0
12-6Oregon St. (131.4)P12H58-65L0%0.0
12-14Sacramento St. (258.9)BSkyA75-80W100%0.0
12-17UNLV (134.4)MWCA75-73L0%0.0
12-20Montana St. (290.7)BSkyH0-087%13.3
12-27San Diego (92.4)WCCA0-016%-11.5
12-29BYU (56.2)WCCA0-011%-14.1
1-3Gonzaga (11.7)WCCH0-09%-16.1
1-8Santa Clara (197.4)WCCH0-067%5.3
1-10San Francisco (123.6)WCCH0-044%-1.9
1-15Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCA0-051%0.4
1-17Pepperdine (134.6)WCCA0-023%-8.5
1-22Pacific (203.2)WCCH0-071%6.5
1-24Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCH0-050%-0.1
1-29Gonzaga (11.7)WCCA0-02%-24.8
2-5San Francisco (123.6)WCCA0-018%-10.6
2-7Santa Clara (197.4)WCCA0-039%-3.4
2-12Pepperdine (134.6)WCCH0-051%0.2
2-14Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCH0-078%9.1
2-19Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCA0-023%-8.8
2-21Pacific (203.2)WCCA0-042%-2.3
2-26BYU (56.2)WCCH0-032%-5.4
2-28San Diego (92.4)WCCH0-041%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC27.9726.4666.6747.529.32-1.31
GonzagaWCC0.404.6290.0090.660.323.76
San FranciscoWCC0.354.6250.0052.720.000.25
PepperdineWCC0.314.6175.0058.080.150.75
Santa ClaraWCC0.314.6150.0040.410.00-0.88
BYUWCC0.004.5866.6766.510.001.51
San DiegoWCC0.004.5854.5556.260.000.57
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.5871.4356.580.000.60
Loyola MarymountWCC0.004.5725.0022.48-0.00-2.52
PacificWCC0.004.5750.0037.760.00-1.12
Portland St.BSky5.951.9857.1443.510.85-0.26
San Jose St.MWC5.561.970.008.13-5.56-1.65
Sacramento St.BSky5.561.9450.0043.950.00-0.24
Murray St.OVC6.111.9262.5064.081.530.54
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC5.901.880.0024.70-5.90-0.95
Montana St.BSky0.001.8522.2229.25-0.00-0.77
DrakeMVC6.141.8522.2220.70-3.41-1.08
UNLVMWC5.561.8571.4349.052.38-0.04
ValparaisoHorz6.141.8577.7868.503.410.68
Oregon St.P125.561.7975.0053.872.780.14
Boise St.MWC0.000.3175.0068.680.000.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.3040.0050.78-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2644.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2666.6777.030.000.14
Western MichiganMAC0.590.2562.5054.980.150.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.2542.8638.75-0.00-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.2555.5650.970.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.400.2337.5046.78-0.10-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.280.2325.0032.77-0.14-0.08
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2230.0029.80-0.00-0.09
Arizona St.P120.350.2260.0053.820.070.02
Washington St.P120.000.2240.0028.86-0.00-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2170.0072.830.000.10
UCLAP120.000.2172.7357.280.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.2037.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2028.5757.26-0.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.2016.6727.56-0.00-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2014.2933.32-0.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.710.1936.3638.88-0.19-0.04
MontanaBSky0.000.1925.0052.09-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.1928.5742.17-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1911.1125.02-0.00-0.09
StanfordP120.350.1975.0057.570.170.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1877.7873.370.000.09
USCP120.350.1660.0036.120.07-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.280.1642.8655.64-0.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.16100.0078.050.000.09
WashingtonP120.310.16100.0071.820.310.07
EvansvilleMVC0.310.1677.7871.110.170.07
ArizonaP120.000.15100.0080.590.000.09
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1422.2230.99-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1433.3338.99-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1462.5066.700.000.05
UC RiversideBW0.740.1342.8643.10-0.11-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.400.1360.0049.500.08-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.350.1320.0028.20-0.21-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1387.5085.320.000.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.1366.6757.860.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1333.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.1257.1461.670.000.03
New MexicoMWC0.280.1270.0058.600.110.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1287.5065.040.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1266.6754.830.000.01
UtahP120.000.1277.7879.480.000.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1033.3334.28-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.350.1018.1846.16-0.22-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.400.1033.3340.31-0.13-0.02
OregonP120.350.1066.6758.060.120.02
Green BayHorz0.280.0975.0078.480.140.05
IUPUISum0.280.0920.0026.33-0.17-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0966.6764.310.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.310.0927.2737.85-0.14-0.02
XavierBE0.310.0980.0070.960.190.04
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6758.240.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0937.5064.43-0.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0760.0062.970.000.02
IPFWSum0.400.0757.1456.900.060.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0755.5638.600.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0016.85-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0049.620.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0737.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.95-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.310.0637.5046.50-0.08-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.560.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0618.1835.99-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0052.800.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.600.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.07-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.590.0660.0034.110.12-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0050.07-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.630.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.730.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.81-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.350.0627.2738.97-0.16-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.510.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.500.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1144.04-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.400.0425.0044.59-0.20-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.400.0485.7170.350.280.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.040.0011.40-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.400.0460.0033.870.08-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.0310.0030.45-0.28-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.400.0316.6719.68-0.26-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0031.74-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.310.030.0028.26-0.31-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0320.0038.24-0.17-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.280.0328.5736.95-0.12-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.0371.4363.890.120.01
HoustonAmer0.310.0371.4348.860.13-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
MaineAE0.280.0311.1121.08-0.22-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.0344.4445.64-0.03-0.00
MissouriSEC0.280.0344.4431.58-0.03-0.01
UC DavisBW0.310.0385.7161.020.220.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0355.5649.500.03-0.00
AuburnSEC0.310.0344.4436.35-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.0375.0067.580.140.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.310.030.008.88-0.31-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.53-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0388.8963.800.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.0318.1844.62-0.18-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.310.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.0310.0018.01-0.25-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.400.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.310.0388.8963.660.240.01
Oral RobertsSum0.310.0344.4445.59-0.03-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.310.0316.6726.28-0.21-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5654.950.000.00
AlbanyAE0.350.0333.3348.89-0.12-0.00
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.350.0350.0074.000.000.01
TempleAmer0.350.0363.6455.600.090.00