Portland

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	285.0
Current RPI:	285
Expected SOS:	141
Current SOS:	141
Current Record:	7-22
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-4
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	270
Expected OOC SOS:	159

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	285.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	75-80	L	0%
11-23	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	N	78-102	L	0%
11-24	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	N	71-93	L	0%
11-26	DePaul (186.0)	BE	N	69-82	L	0%
12-3	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	77-54	L	0%
12-6	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	66-76	L	0%
12-9	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	64-55	W	100%
12-16	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	89-76	L	0%
12-19	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	78-67	W	100%
12-21	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	N	75-80	W	100%
12-28	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	69-45	L	0%
12-30	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	61-84	L	0%
1-4	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	74-81	L	0%
1-6	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	70-68	L	0%
1-11	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	103-57	L	0%
1-13	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	54-66	L	0%
1-18	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	49-55	W	100%
1-20	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	65-72	W	100%
1-25	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	79-95	L	0%
1-27	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	72-55	L	0%
2-1	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	85-76	W	100%
2-3	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	68-66	W	100%
2-8	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	65-63	L	0%
2-10	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	60-58	L	0%
2-15	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	72-81	L	0%
2-17	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	61-73	L	0%
2-22	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	60-72	L	0%
2-24	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	75-64	L	0%
3-2	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	N	78-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Portland	WCC	26.41	26.41	21.99	21.99	-14.80	-14.80
Loyola Marymount	WCC	6.18	6.18	33.33	33.33	-2.06	-2.06
Saint Mary's	WCC	4.61	4.61	83.87	83.87	3.12	3.12
Gonzaga	WCC	4.58	4.58	87.50	87.50	3.44	3.44
BYU	WCC	4.55	4.55	68.75	68.75	1.71	1.71
San Francisco	WCC	4.52	4.52	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	4.49	4.49	13.79	13.79	-3.25	-3.25
Santa Clara	WCC	4.49	4.49	29.63	29.63	-1.83	-1.83
San Diego	WCC	4.46	4.46	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
Pacific	WCC	4.43	4.43	37.93	37.93	-1.07	-1.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.97	1.97	17.24	17.24	-1.29	-1.29
Portland St.	BSky	1.96	1.96	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
San Jose St.	MWC	1.92	1.92	10.71	10.71	-1.51	-1.51
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.89	1.89	60.71	60.71	0.41	0.41
Boise St.	MWC	1.87	1.87	72.41	72.41	0.84	0.84
Seattle	WAC	1.78	1.78	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
DePaul	BE	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
Hartford	AE	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
North Carolina	ACC	1.72	1.72	70.59	70.59	0.71	0.71
Oklahoma	B12	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
UC Riverside	BW	0.31	0.31	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
Nevada	MWC	0.29	0.29	79.41	79.41	0.17	0.17
UC Davis	BW	0.28	0.28	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.28	0.28	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.26	0.26	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	83.33	83.33	0.13	0.13
Cal Poly	BW	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.17	0.17	14.29	14.29	-0.12	-0.12
Idaho	BSky	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.13	-0.13
Air Force	MWC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Washington	P12	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.14	0.14	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
UT Arlington	SB	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	BE	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00