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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:249.0
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:159
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20249.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UC Davis (281.0)BWA79-66L0%0.0
11-20Colorado (35.0)P12A85-63L0%0.0
11-22Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH87-57W100%0.0
11-24Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH97-65W100%0.0
11-27Colorado St. (181.0)MWCN90-74L0%0.0
11-28Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCN79-80L0%0.0
12-2Portland St. (282.0)BSkyA72-78W100%0.0
12-5Boise St. (101.0)MWCH71-81L0%0.0
12-8Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH65-66L0%0.0
12-12Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyH81-73W100%0.0
12-18Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH82-92L0%0.0
12-19Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH65-60W100%0.0
12-21Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH87-60W100%0.0
12-23Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH87-79W100%0.0
12-31San Francisco (228.0)WCCA107-95L0%0.0
1-2Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA84-77L0%0.0
1-9Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA85-74L0%0.0
1-14San Diego (302.0)WCCH71-82L0%0.0
1-16BYU (76.0)WCCH84-81W100%0.0
1-21Pacific (268.0)WCCA70-61L0%0.0
1-23Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA89-74L0%0.0
1-28San Francisco (228.0)WCCH76-87L0%0.0
1-30Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH84-90L0%0.0
2-4Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA70-73W100%0.0
2-6Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA78-92W100%0.0
2-11Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH66-92L0%0.0
2-18Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH72-74L0%0.0
2-20Pacific (268.0)WCCH80-67W100%0.0
2-25BYU (76.0)WCCA99-81L0%0.0
2-27San Diego (302.0)WCCA85-76L0%0.0
3-5Gonzaga (46.0)WCCN92-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC26.4326.4331.4731.47-9.80-9.80
GonzagaWCC5.825.8275.8675.863.013.01
Loyola MarymountWCC4.364.3646.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Saint Mary'sWCC4.364.3682.7682.762.862.86
BYUWCC4.334.3370.0070.001.731.73
San DiegoWCC4.254.2522.2222.22-2.36-2.36
PepperdineWCC4.254.2560.7160.710.910.91
Santa ClaraWCC4.194.1928.5728.57-1.80-1.80
San FranciscoWCC4.194.1944.4444.44-0.47-0.47
PacificWCC4.184.1820.8320.83-2.44-2.44
Cal St. FullertonBW1.921.9229.6329.63-0.78-0.78
Sacramento St.BSky1.901.9042.8642.86-0.27-0.27
UC DavisBW1.861.8629.6329.63-0.76-0.76
Weber St.BSky1.861.8673.3373.330.870.87
Portland St.BSky1.831.8339.2939.29-0.39-0.39
Colorado St.MWC1.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky1.781.7846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Boise St.MWC1.771.7758.6258.620.310.31
ColoradoP121.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.641.6434.6234.62-0.50-0.50
Alcorn St.SWAC1.611.6148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
MontanaBSky0.430.4362.0762.070.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.390.3928.5728.57-0.17-0.17
UC IrvineBW0.360.3671.8871.880.160.16
UC RiversideBW0.310.3138.7138.71-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.300.3075.7675.760.150.15
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.270.2710.7110.71-0.21-0.21
Fresno St.MWC0.250.2571.8871.880.110.11
Long Beach St.BW0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.240.2414.2914.29-0.17-0.17
Northern ColoradoBSky0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
San Jose St.MWC0.240.2421.4321.43-0.14-0.14
North DakotaBSky0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
IdahoBSky0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
DrakeMVC0.160.1620.0020.00-0.10-0.10
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
UCLAP120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Oregon St.P120.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
StanfordP120.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0956.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01