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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Portland

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:195.8
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:178
Current Record:8-8
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:192
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11104.70.06%
16-12121.90.46%
15-13140.12.68%
14-14157.48.92%
13-15175.318.64%
12-16193.126.64%
11-17210.425.23%
10-18226.512.69%
9-19242.13.95%
8-20256.80.72%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Riverside (312.4)BWH71-55W100%0.0
11-15San Jose St. (187.5)MWCA66-79W100%0.0
11-24UCLA (16.1)P12N99-77L0%0.0
11-25Dayton (31.5)A10N74-84L0%0.0
11-27Cal St. Northridge (251.8)BWN96-78W100%0.0
12-3Colorado (116.1)P12H63-76L0%0.0
12-5UT Rio Grande Valley (279.0)WACH90-89W100%0.0
12-16South Dakota (155.0)SumH85-82W100%0.0
12-18Oregon St. (276.4)P12N45-53W100%0.0
12-20Portland St. (227.3)BSkyH75-77L0%0.0
12-22Cal St. Fullerton (310.4)BWA77-72L0%0.0
12-29Pacific (214.1)WCCA76-80W100%0.0
12-31Pepperdine (249.4)WCCH73-60W100%0.0
1-5Santa Clara (161.0)WCCA70-42L0%0.0
1-12Saint Mary's (19.5)WCCH33-74L0%0.0
1-14Loyola Marymount (152.7)WCCH78-79L0%0.0
1-19San Francisco (111.9)WCCA0-021%-9.2
1-21Gonzaga (6.4)WCCA0-01%-27.7
1-26Pepperdine (249.4)WCCA0-051%0.3
1-28San Diego (189.3)WCCH0-062%3.4
2-2Santa Clara (161.0)WCCH0-047%-1.0
2-4BYU (62.7)WCCA0-08%-15.5
2-9Saint Mary's (19.5)WCCA0-03%-21.5
2-11Loyola Marymount (152.7)WCCA0-028%-6.4
2-16Pacific (214.1)WCCH0-064%4.0
2-18San Francisco (111.9)WCCH0-040%-3.0
2-23BYU (62.7)WCCH0-020%-9.3
2-25San Diego (189.3)WCCA0-040%-2.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PortlandWCC26.5526.3545.0040.35-2.65-5.09
Santa ClaraWCC3.554.5547.0644.57-0.21-0.49
PacificWCC3.404.5541.1836.15-0.60-1.26
Saint Mary'sWCC3.434.5487.5086.662.573.33
Loyola MarymountWCC3.624.5446.6745.10-0.24-0.45
San DiegoWCC0.544.5447.0639.72-0.03-0.93
San FranciscoWCC0.394.5261.1157.850.090.71
BYUWCC0.464.5268.4266.950.171.53
PepperdineWCC3.524.5125.0021.59-1.76-2.56
GonzagaWCC0.452.79100.0096.820.452.61
Cal St. FullertonBW3.442.0835.7138.70-0.98-0.47
UCLAP123.622.0694.4488.973.221.61
Portland St.BSky3.512.0450.0052.700.000.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.532.0142.8647.94-0.50-0.08
UC RiversideBW3.402.0116.6728.64-2.27-0.86
ColoradoP123.211.9350.0052.700.000.10
San Jose St.MWC3.301.9153.8542.500.25-0.29
Oregon St.P123.211.9018.7515.52-2.00-1.31
DaytonA103.221.8573.3375.181.500.93
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC3.251.8235.2934.71-0.95-0.56
South DakotaSum3.121.8261.1159.160.690.33
UC IrvineBW0.370.3850.0058.430.000.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.3514.2927.63-0.06-0.16
USCP120.280.3384.2172.840.190.15
Long Beach St.BW0.490.3222.2236.06-0.27-0.09
NevadaMWC0.480.2883.3378.320.320.16
Cal PolyBW0.200.2620.0029.47-0.12-0.11
UC DavisBW0.310.2652.9454.860.020.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.380.2521.4326.05-0.22-0.12
StanfordP120.280.2452.9447.220.02-0.01
UtahP120.290.2466.6764.720.100.07
Washington St.P120.290.2450.0035.490.00-0.07
MontanaBSky0.410.2352.6360.450.020.05
San Diego St.MWC0.110.2256.2562.950.010.06
WashingtonP120.200.2147.0642.27-0.01-0.03
ArizonaP120.180.2188.8983.100.140.14
HawaiiBW0.100.2040.0044.09-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.430.2012.5019.03-0.33-0.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.1917.6521.39-0.13-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1940.0044.63-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.170.1888.2482.770.130.12
Boise St.MWC0.200.1666.6766.780.070.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.330.1633.3342.19-0.11-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.300.1656.2553.650.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.1653.3361.470.010.04
Fresno St.MWC0.290.1656.2552.000.040.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.1553.8564.140.010.04
Arizona St.P120.210.1550.0044.340.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.1572.2266.070.040.05
UNLVMWC0.220.1350.0045.100.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.160.1329.4138.91-0.07-0.03
DenverSum0.310.1361.1157.830.070.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.290.1350.0051.420.000.00
WyomingMWC0.090.1362.5055.530.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1388.2484.380.000.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.270.1346.1553.13-0.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.190.1368.7570.370.070.05
Idaho St.BSky0.100.136.6718.58-0.09-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.1256.2559.170.010.02
St. BonaventureA100.190.1264.7161.890.060.03
LamarSlnd0.180.1250.0049.650.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.1229.4125.22-0.00-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1277.7877.110.050.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.1061.1162.970.050.03
New MexicoMWC0.200.1055.5654.690.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1037.5044.66-0.05-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.200.1043.7537.53-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.170.0938.8940.01-0.04-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0940.0037.09-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.0917.6535.25-0.12-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0943.7543.67-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.260.0950.0043.370.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.180.0961.1159.210.040.02
VanderbiltSEC0.180.0947.0643.82-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.120.0746.1554.04-0.010.01
IdahoBSky0.110.0735.7144.07-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.0637.5036.25-0.05-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0616.6718.41-0.06-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0637.5043.15-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.0623.0831.01-0.05-0.02
HoustonAmer0.170.0672.2271.210.080.03
Texas A&MSEC0.190.0656.2553.010.020.00
BelmontOVC0.090.0673.3373.100.040.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5024.44-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0660.0054.070.020.01
DuquesneA100.100.0650.0042.110.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0668.7569.250.030.02
IUPUISum0.080.0635.2942.41-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.090.0656.2551.280.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0662.5062.550.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0635.7136.22-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0662.5060.110.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0626.6732.20-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0617.6527.61-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.0664.7167.000.030.02
SamfordSC0.000.0664.7159.940.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0614.2929.37-0.07-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0633.3333.93-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.090.0658.8263.660.020.02
VCUA100.000.0677.7873.920.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0626.6727.57-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0647.3745.21-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.170.0650.0051.780.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0630.7736.76-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0621.4336.57-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.090.0656.2554.840.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0049.550.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0676.4777.720.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0629.4134.21-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.060.0014.42-0.09-0.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0661.1154.400.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0642.1142.66-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0662.5065.700.020.02
TroySB0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0643.7543.63-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0622.2225.46-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0664.7154.360.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0660.0066.130.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0318.7528.06-0.07-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0355.5653.980.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0357.1453.400.010.00
St. John'sBE0.100.0345.0038.60-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0325.0029.61-0.04-0.01
IowaB100.090.0357.8950.960.010.00
MemphisAmer0.090.0372.2264.140.040.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0318.7530.20-0.05-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0327.7834.95-0.04-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0316.6721.63-0.06-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0355.5655.680.010.00
Texas St.SB0.090.0353.3345.920.01-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0381.2573.540.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0362.5057.020.020.00
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0323.5328.53-0.05-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2235.43-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0356.2555.710.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0325.0025.29-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0375.0076.810.050.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0382.3576.960.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0335.2931.83-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0364.7156.530.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0344.4445.47-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0364.7161.910.000.01
La SalleA100.100.0366.6762.150.030.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0311.1123.11-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0378.9569.120.060.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0338.8939.13-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0364.7158.460.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0050.990.000.00
VMISC0.100.0314.2915.94-0.07-0.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0373.3373.890.050.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0343.7543.54-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0325.0028.48-0.05-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0375.0058.080.050.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0388.8977.800.070.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0325.0031.95-0.05-0.01
TexasB120.090.0341.1835.95-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0356.2551.250.010.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0343.7538.32-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.090.0326.6739.99-0.04-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0372.2267.490.040.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0388.2487.320.060.02
MichiganB100.080.0366.6758.160.030.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0361.1156.560.020.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0333.3337.37-0.03-0.01