Portland

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	238.0
Current RPI:	238
Expected SOS:	67
Current SOS:	67
Current Record:	6-24
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	4-14
Expected Conf Record:	4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-2
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	193
Expected OOC SOS:	11

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-24	238.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	N	70-65	W	100%
11-13	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	N	66-61	W	100%
11-14	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	93-63	L	0%
11-20	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	H	73-83	L	0%
11-22	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	83-69	L	0%
11-26	Kentucky (2.0)	SEC	A	87-63	L	0%
12-3	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	A	73-53	L	0%
12-7	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	A	92-70	L	0%
12-10	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	H	54-72	L	0%
12-17	Montana (74.0)	BSky	H	65-80	L	0%
12-19	Utah (274.0)	P12	A	72-67	L	0%
12-22	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	A	78-60	L	0%
12-28	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	A	90-51	L	0%
1-5	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	H	84-74	W	100%
1-7	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	H	53-43	W	100%
1-12	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	A	104-70	L	0%
1-14	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	69-61	L	0%
1-19	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	63-82	L	0%
1-21	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	H	71-72	L	0%
1-26	Gonzaga (25.0)	WCC	H	62-74	L	0%
1-28	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	A	62-59	L	0%
2-2	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	A	78-84	W	100%
2-4	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	H	60-79	L	0%
2-9	Loyola Marymount (118.0)	WCC	H	62-76	L	0%
2-16	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	A	78-75	L	0%
2-18	Pepperdine (271.0)	WCC	A	70-65	L	0%
2-23	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	H	43-70	L	0%
2-25	Brigham Young (46.0)	WCC	A	76-66	L	0%
2-29	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	N	74-70	W	100%
3-1	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	N	87-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Portland's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Portland.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Portland	WCC	26.51	26.51	20.29	20.29	-15.75	-15.75
San Francisco	WCC	6.00	6.00	53.57	53.57	0.43	0.43
Santa Clara	WCC	5.89	5.89	24.00	24.00	-3.06	-3.06
Brigham Young	WCC	4.44	4.44	72.41	72.41	1.99	1.99
San Diego	WCC	4.41	4.41	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Gonzaga	WCC	4.38	4.38	79.31	79.31	2.57	2.57
St. Mary's	WCC	4.37	4.37	82.14	82.14	2.81	2.81
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.34	4.34	55.56	55.56	0.48	0.48
Pepperdine	WCC	4.31	4.31	30.77	30.77	-1.66	-1.66
Washington St.	P12	1.95	1.95	44.83	44.83	-0.20	-0.20
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.89	1.89	62.96	62.96	0.49	0.49
Washington	P12	1.89	1.89	66.67	66.67	0.63	0.63
Montana	BSky	1.83	1.83	78.57	78.57	1.05	1.05
Utah	P12	1.80	1.80	13.79	13.79	-1.31	-1.31
Nevada	WAC	1.78	1.78	79.31	79.31	1.04	1.04
St. Louis	A10	1.75	1.75	76.67	76.67	0.93	0.93
Georgia St.	CAA	1.72	1.72	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Boise St.	MWC	1.69	1.69	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Kentucky	SEC	1.67	1.67	93.94	93.94	1.46	1.46
Ohio	MAC	1.67	1.67	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.31	0.31	11.11	11.11	-0.24	-0.24
Pacific	BW	0.29	0.29	32.14	32.14	-0.10	-0.10
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	0.26	19.23	19.23	-0.16	-0.16
UCLA	P12	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.25	0.25	26.67	26.67	-0.12	-0.12
Arizona St.	P12	0.25	0.25	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Oregon St.	P12	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	78.57	78.57	0.13	0.13
Arizona	P12	0.22	0.22	67.65	67.65	0.08	0.08
Oregon	P12	0.22	0.22	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.20	81.25	81.25	0.13	0.13
Hawaii	WAC	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Stanford	P12	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Seattle	ind	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.14	0.14	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.14	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.14	0.14	18.75	18.75	-0.09	-0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	96.43	96.43	0.13	0.13
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Longwood	ind	0.14	0.14	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	25.93	25.93	-0.06	-0.06
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	86.21	86.21	0.08	0.08
Denver	SB	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00