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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:95.0
Current RPI:95
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:68
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1595.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH91-57W100%0.0
11-16Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH93-59W100%0.0
11-20Syracuse (69.0)ACCN73-59W100%0.0
11-21Texas (42.0)B12N55-71L0%0.0
11-26Cal Poly (199.0)BWH72-52W100%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA57-64W100%0.0
12-3Montana (144.0)BSkyH78-76W100%0.0
12-7Nevada (306.0)MWCA56-63W100%0.0
12-10Wyoming (71.0)MWCH45-42W100%0.0
12-13Princeton (191.0)IvyH67-57W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Washington (74.0)BSkyH78-67W100%0.0
12-22Wisconsin (4.0)B10H56-68L0%0.0
12-28Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH52-55L0%0.0
1-2Washington (126.0)P12H81-75W100%0.0
1-4Washington St. (169.0)P12H66-69L0%0.0
1-7USC (207.0)P12A71-57L0%0.0
1-11UCLA (48.0)P12A73-54L0%0.0
1-14Stanford (59.0)P12H59-69L0%0.0
1-22Arizona St. (102.0)P12H44-79L0%0.0
1-24Arizona (5.0)P12H50-73L0%0.0
1-29Washington St. (169.0)P12A67-76W100%0.0
2-1Washington (126.0)P12A88-90W100%0.0
2-5USC (207.0)P12H70-69W100%0.0
2-7UCLA (48.0)P12H64-62W100%0.0
2-12Colorado (116.0)P12A61-68W100%0.0
2-15Utah (20.0)P12A76-61L0%0.0
2-21Stanford (59.0)P12A72-61L0%0.0
2-25Oregon (27.0)P12H69-80L0%0.0
3-1Oregon St. (133.0)P12H73-56W100%0.0
3-5Arizona (5.0)P12A99-60L0%0.0
3-7Arizona St. (102.0)P12A74-70L0%0.0
3-11Washington St. (169.0)P12N84-59W100%0.0
3-12Arizona (5.0)P12N73-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.3126.3150.3250.320.170.17
ArizonaP125.215.2190.3290.324.204.20
Washington St.P125.145.1442.8642.86-0.73-0.73
StanfordP123.883.8856.6756.670.520.52
UCLAP123.763.7661.2961.290.850.85
WashingtonP123.743.7455.1755.170.390.39
USCP123.743.7436.6736.67-1.00-1.00
Arizona St.P123.713.7150.0050.000.000.00
OregonP122.442.4471.8871.881.071.07
ColoradoP122.392.3948.3948.39-0.08-0.08
UtahP122.392.3973.3373.331.111.11
Oregon St.P122.342.3455.1755.170.240.24
Fresno St.MWC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
WyomingMWC1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
NevadaMWC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.641.6476.6776.670.870.87
MontanaBSky1.591.5962.0762.070.380.38
TexasB121.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
Cal PolyBW1.571.5742.3142.31-0.24-0.24
Kennesaw St.ASun1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
Alcorn St.SWAC1.561.5617.2417.24-1.02-1.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.541.5434.4834.48-0.48-0.48
SyracuseACC1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
PrincetonIvy1.521.5253.5753.570.110.11
WisconsinB101.521.5290.9190.911.241.24
San Diego St.MWC0.340.3475.7675.760.170.17
UNLVMWC0.340.3453.1253.120.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.300.300.000.00-0.30-0.30
Utah St.MWC0.250.2556.6756.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
GonzagaWCC0.210.2193.9493.940.190.19
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
IdahoBSky0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Boise St.MWC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
MichiganB100.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.150.000.00-0.15-0.15
SeattleWAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
DukeACC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.100.1074.0774.070.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ColgatePat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
DenverSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01