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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:43.8
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:27
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-814.30.59%
22-918.54.97%
21-1025.116.23%
20-1135.228.22%
19-1249.026.56%
18-1362.616.60%
17-1476.05.64%
16-1591.31.11%
15-16112.40.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Rice (293.7)CUSAH97-65W100%0.0
11-16UC Santa Barbara (122.3)BWH85-67W100%0.0
11-20East Carolina (198.7)AmerH70-62W100%0.0
11-23Sam Houston St. (188.2)SlndH89-63W100%0.0
11-26San Diego St. (54.0)MWCN72-58L0%0.0
11-27Richmond (104.7)A10N90-94L0%0.0
12-1Seattle (270.2)WACH66-52W100%0.0
12-5Wyoming (179.2)MWCA72-78W100%0.0
12-9Incarnate Word (189.6)SlndH74-62W100%0.0
12-12Saint Mary's (39.1)WCCH63-59W100%0.0
12-19Coppin St. (327.3)MEACH84-51W100%0.0
12-22Virginia (5.8)ACCA63-62L0%0.0
12-28Davidson (72.3)A10H86-60W100%0.0
1-1Colorado (44.8)P12H79-65W100%0.0
1-3Utah (26.8)P12H71-58W100%0.0
1-6Oregon (4.9)P12A68-65L0%0.0
1-9Oregon St. (57.0)P12A77-71L0%0.0
1-14Stanford (87.7)P12A77-71L0%0.0
1-21Arizona St. (79.5)P12H75-70W100%0.0
1-23Arizona (26.8)P12H74-73W100%0.0
1-27Utah (26.8)P12A73-64L0%0.0
1-31Colorado (44.8)P12A70-62L0%0.0
2-6Stanford (87.7)P12H76-61W100%0.0
2-11Oregon (4.9)P12H0-051%0.2
2-13Oregon St. (57.0)P12H0-075%7.3
2-18Washington (65.9)P12A0-048%-0.5
2-21Washington St. (184.5)P12A0-075%7.5
2-25UCLA (70.2)P12H0-071%6.0
2-28USC (21.0)P12H0-056%1.7
3-3Arizona (26.8)P12A0-022%-8.3
3-5Arizona St. (79.5)P12A0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.4426.2463.6461.237.215.90
StanfordP124.964.0150.0046.260.00-0.30
Oregon St.P122.893.9860.0055.980.580.48
UtahP124.913.9672.7369.822.231.57
ColoradoP124.853.9471.4366.412.081.29
OregonP122.803.9381.8279.591.782.33
Arizona St.P122.483.9156.5253.480.320.27
ArizonaP122.433.8882.6181.051.582.41
WashingtonP120.562.4262.5060.390.140.50
USCP120.242.4078.2674.030.141.15
UCLAP120.192.3756.5254.070.020.19
Washington St.P120.372.3636.3632.24-0.10-0.84
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.321.8145.0052.27-0.230.08
San Diego St.MWC2.361.7568.1869.000.860.66
RiceCUSA2.291.7030.0030.72-0.92-0.66
Incarnate WordSlnd2.281.6756.2554.230.290.14
RichmondA102.231.6754.5554.200.200.14
Saint Mary'sWCC2.281.6790.0088.671.831.29
SeattleWAC2.231.6750.0046.800.00-0.11
WyomingMWC2.221.6745.4543.99-0.20-0.20
DavidsonA102.221.6765.0060.210.670.34
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.241.6547.3751.13-0.120.04
East CarolinaAmer2.221.6443.4840.77-0.29-0.30
Coppin St.MEAC2.171.6115.0021.48-1.52-0.92
VirginiaACC2.171.6182.6177.721.420.89
UNLVMWC0.230.3052.1755.090.010.03
Boise St.MWC0.230.2760.8760.530.050.06
Fresno St.MWC0.290.2463.6461.640.080.06
Long Beach St.BW0.290.2445.4551.39-0.030.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.2050.0049.770.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.300.1986.9682.900.220.13
GonzagaWCC0.100.1978.2676.880.050.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1872.2275.620.040.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.320.1818.1821.12-0.21-0.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1733.3330.60-0.05-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.270.1742.1145.67-0.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.1766.6767.710.070.06
UC IrvineBW0.260.1772.7371.660.120.07
BYUWCC0.290.1766.6769.490.100.07
New MexicoMWC0.150.1758.3360.690.020.04
Colorado St.MWC0.240.1654.5552.540.020.01
LamarSlnd0.170.1530.0029.28-0.07-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.210.1554.5550.110.020.00
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1423.8122.82-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.190.1457.1455.290.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.1430.0034.55-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.1438.1037.70-0.05-0.03
George MasonA100.140.1433.3333.70-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.140.1475.0071.920.070.06
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1434.7840.89-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.190.1443.4837.81-0.02-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1235.0034.80-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1276.1972.310.060.06
UC DavisBW0.100.1240.0036.70-0.02-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1239.1338.56-0.02-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.129.0912.25-0.07-0.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1117.6526.58-0.11-0.05
FordhamA100.100.1152.3850.750.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.150.1131.8229.13-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.150.1140.0038.51-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.150.1125.0028.89-0.07-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1130.4331.21-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.100.1182.6179.190.060.07
TexasB120.110.1166.6762.210.040.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1181.8283.030.060.07
VCUA100.100.1173.9174.060.050.05
Texas TechB120.190.1160.8755.300.040.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1158.3358.480.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.1131.8230.15-0.02-0.04
TulsaAmer0.140.1166.6764.730.050.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1182.6177.520.090.06
TempleAmer0.180.1163.6459.710.050.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0925.0030.04-0.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0933.3334.95-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.0952.3854.070.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0982.6181.130.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0965.2268.590.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0919.0525.90-0.06-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.0917.6529.03-0.08-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.0931.8236.14-0.06-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0960.8760.750.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0956.5257.280.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.160.0933.3333.07-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.110.0952.1751.940.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0945.8341.65-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.0859.0961.310.030.02
Iowa St.B120.150.0870.8368.000.060.03
DuquesneA100.100.0860.8756.360.020.01
VillanovaBE0.150.0887.5086.870.120.06
Southern UtahBSky0.140.0815.0015.32-0.10-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.140.0847.6249.26-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.100.0864.0062.040.030.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0856.5262.820.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0883.3378.400.030.05
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0845.0046.11-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.140.0879.1778.060.080.05
UCFAmer0.140.0850.0044.680.00-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0875.0071.800.050.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0810.0013.14-0.04-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.090.0841.6739.91-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0873.9176.740.040.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.0011.96-0.07-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0850.0049.050.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0875.0072.630.020.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0880.0081.160.000.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.0647.8348.87-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.120.0627.7834.45-0.05-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.0614.2924.86-0.08-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.064.357.72-0.09-0.05
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.93-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.73-0.04-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.45-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.060.0686.9682.580.050.04
AkronMAC0.100.0682.6181.130.070.04
UABCUSA0.100.0682.6179.390.070.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.0650.0053.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0623.8126.56-0.06-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.0631.5831.74-0.04-0.02
DePaulBE0.110.0633.3334.01-0.04-0.02
Green BayHorz0.110.0654.5556.010.010.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0684.2181.660.070.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0636.3636.20-0.01-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0652.1754.140.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.150.040.04
La SalleA100.100.0619.0520.33-0.06-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0640.9139.26-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.0672.7367.630.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0658.3357.220.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0683.3381.320.030.03
Saint LouisA100.100.0634.7832.42-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.0672.7370.400.050.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.750.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.190.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.090.0640.9143.75-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5832.01-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0563.6460.930.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0556.0055.420.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0590.4886.910.070.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.7327.18-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0570.8367.980.040.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0554.5554.970.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0560.8755.970.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0542.8639.23-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0539.1335.44-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0573.9168.480.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0558.3358.370.010.01
IPFWSum0.090.0570.8368.590.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0054.190.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0579.1776.070.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0564.0064.480.010.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0528.5727.00-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0568.0067.990.020.02
Penn St.B100.090.0550.0046.760.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0552.0048.860.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0570.8369.490.040.02
StetsonASun0.090.0523.8127.73-0.05-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0568.0066.660.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0572.0071.540.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0521.7423.40-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0564.0057.920.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0558.3359.360.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0533.3330.27-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0572.0069.150.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0520.0019.76-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0575.0075.330.020.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0536.0034.92-0.01-0.02
PurdueB100.060.0380.0077.960.040.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0325.0023.45-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.67-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.230.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.42-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.520.030.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.26-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.640.030.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.040.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.380.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9174.700.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.780.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.9145.29-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.600.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0331.5837.72-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.310.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0345.4554.16-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0336.8437.57-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.310.020.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.21-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.73-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.330.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.900.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.1751.980.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0339.1342.82-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0357.8962.320.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0340.0045.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.820.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.540.010.00
PennIvy0.000.0338.8937.69-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
TCUB120.000.0345.8339.35-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.580.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.11-0.03-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0320.8321.68-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0357.8961.760.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0317.3920.66-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.410.020.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5081.860.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0373.6874.680.000.01