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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:63.0
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:35
Current SOS:35
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1363.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH83-64W100%0.0
11-12Denver (139.0)SumH77-50W100%0.0
11-15Oakland (181.0)HorzH64-60W100%0.0
11-18Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH75-47W100%0.0
11-25Arkansas (77.0)SECN85-77W100%0.0
11-26Syracuse (16.0)ACCN92-81L0%0.0
11-27Dayton (43.0)A10N82-64L0%0.0
12-2UC Irvine (111.0)BWH73-56W100%0.0
12-6UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA72-65L0%0.0
12-10Nevada (137.0)MWCH92-84W100%0.0
12-14Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH67-56W100%0.0
12-22Creighton (10.0)BEA68-54L0%0.0
12-28Furman (339.0)SCH90-60W100%0.0
1-2Stanford (41.0)P12A62-69W100%0.0
1-9Oregon (28.0)P12A83-96W100%0.0
1-11Oregon St. (100.0)P12A83-88W100%0.0
1-15Washington (104.0)P12H82-56W100%0.0
1-18Washington St. (224.0)P12H76-55W100%0.0
1-22USC (176.0)P12A77-69L0%0.0
1-26UCLA (14.0)P12A76-64L0%0.0
1-29Arizona St. (44.0)P12H78-89L0%0.0
2-1Arizona (2.0)P12H60-58W100%0.0
2-5Stanford (41.0)P12H69-80L0%0.0
2-12Washington St. (224.0)P12A76-80W100%0.0
2-15Washington (104.0)P12A59-72W100%0.0
2-19UCLA (14.0)P12H66-86L0%0.0
2-23USC (176.0)P12H77-64W100%0.0
2-26Arizona (2.0)P12A87-59L0%0.0
3-1Arizona St. (44.0)P12A78-60L0%0.0
3-5Utah (80.0)P12H59-63L0%0.0
3-8Colorado (34.0)P12H66-65W100%0.0
3-13Colorado (34.0)P12N56-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.1826.1856.4356.433.373.37
StanfordP124.004.0064.5264.521.161.16
ColoradoP123.983.9868.7568.751.491.49
UCLAP123.953.9575.0075.001.981.98
ArizonaP123.883.8890.6290.623.153.15
Arizona St.P123.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
USCP123.823.8231.0331.03-1.45-1.45
WashingtonP123.813.8156.6756.670.510.51
Washington St.P123.803.8032.1432.14-1.36-1.36
UtahP122.462.4662.0762.070.590.59
OregonP122.412.4174.1974.191.171.17
Oregon St.P122.362.3653.3353.330.160.16
UC IrvineBW1.791.7967.7467.740.640.64
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
Fresno St.MWC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
DenverSum1.631.6351.7251.720.060.06
DaytonA101.611.6168.7568.750.600.60
CreightonBE1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
OaklandHorz1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
Coppin St.MEAC1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
ArkansasSEC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
FurmanSC1.561.5626.9226.92-0.72-0.72
Southern UtahBSky1.561.563.703.70-1.45-1.45
SyracuseACC1.561.5683.8783.871.061.06
Cal PolyBW0.320.3236.6736.67-0.09-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
UC DavisBW0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
San Diego St.MWC0.220.2287.1087.100.160.16
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
WyomingMWC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
Boise St.MWC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
MontanaBSky0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0786.2186.210.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00