California

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	42.4
Current RPI:	47
Expected SOS:	89
Current SOS:	82
Current Record:	18-6
Expected Record:	23-8
Current Conf Record:	8-3
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	31.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	46
Expected OOC SOS:	85

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-6	27.1	9.42%
24-7	33.8	28.41%
23-8	42.3	34.44%
22-9	52.5	20.61%
21-10	65.2	6.01%
20-11	78.9	1.01%
19-12	96.0	0.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	H	77-56	W	100%	0.0
11-13	George Washington (196.4)	A10	H	81-54	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	H	72-55	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	N	46-70	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Missouri (11.7)	B12	N	92-53	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	80-59	W	100%	0.0
11-28	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	H	73-57	W	100%	0.0
12-4	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	64-63	L	0%	0.0
12-7	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	H	81-36	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	73-46	W	100%	0.0
12-16	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	H	77-57	W	100%	0.0
12-19	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	H	70-50	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	85-68	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Southern California (232.8)	P12	H	53-49	W	100%	0.0
12-31	UCLA (109.2)	P12	H	85-69	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	A	92-85	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	60-77	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Colorado (75.2)	P12	H	57-50	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Utah (272.4)	P12	H	81-45	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Washington (69.1)	P12	A	66-69	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	A	77-75	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Stanford (89.9)	P12	H	69-59	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Arizona (75.8)	P12	H	74-78	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	H	68-47	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Southern California (232.8)	P12	A	0-0		84%	10.9
2-11	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	0-0		55%	1.3
2-16	Oregon (86.8)	P12	H	0-0		86%	11.6
2-18	Oregon St. (114.4)	P12	H	0-0		78%	8.4
2-23	Utah (272.4)	P12	A	0-0		98%	21.4
2-26	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	0-0		62%	3.2
3-4	Stanford (89.9)	P12	A	0-0		52%	0.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
California	P12	26.15	26.24	72.73	75.03	11.88	13.14
Stanford	P12	2.55	3.99	72.73	71.44	1.16	1.71
Utah	P12	2.60	3.96	19.05	16.03	-1.61	-2.69
Southern California	P12	2.69	3.96	26.09	26.32	-1.29	-1.88
Colorado	P12	2.59	3.96	70.00	65.99	1.04	1.26
Oregon	P12	2.55	3.94	72.73	68.63	1.16	1.47
Oregon St.	P12	2.54	3.94	61.90	63.32	0.61	1.05
UCLA	P12	2.60	3.91	57.14	59.23	0.37	0.72
Arizona	P12	2.60	2.41	65.22	67.51	0.79	0.84
Washington	P12	2.60	2.40	72.73	68.83	1.18	0.91
Arizona St.	P12	2.55	2.38	31.82	32.52	-0.93	-0.83
Washington St.	P12	2.54	2.37	47.62	46.31	-0.12	-0.17
UC Irvine	BW	2.29	1.79	36.84	36.62	-0.60	-0.48
San Diego St.	MWC	2.27	1.78	85.00	77.24	1.59	0.97
UC Santa Barbara	BW	2.28	1.76	58.82	60.43	0.40	0.37
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.23	1.75	81.82	80.80	1.42	1.08
Weber St.	BSky	2.23	1.73	84.21	79.92	1.53	1.03
Georgia	SEC	2.18	1.72	47.62	42.62	-0.10	-0.25
San Jose St.	WAC	2.19	1.67	28.57	27.91	-0.94	-0.74
Austin Peay	OVC	2.13	1.64	34.78	37.21	-0.65	-0.42
George Washington	A10	2.13	1.64	36.36	33.19	-0.58	-0.55
Denver	SB	2.08	1.61	73.91	74.81	1.00	0.80
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.08	1.61	20.00	26.43	-1.25	-0.76
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.08	1.61	43.75	44.32	-0.26	-0.18
Missouri	B12	2.08	1.61	90.91	86.75	1.70	1.19
Fresno St.	WAC	0.28	0.30	39.13	44.52	-0.06	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.35	0.29	0.00	5.37	-0.35	-0.26
UC Riverside	BW	0.30	0.26	42.86	39.66	-0.04	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.29	0.26	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.23	0.25	66.67	60.80	0.08	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.23	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.24	0.23	76.19	70.73	0.13	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.23	0.22	81.82	81.03	0.15	0.14
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	0.20	21.05	22.46	-0.15	-0.11
Portland St.	BSky	0.24	0.20	42.86	45.80	-0.03	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	42.86	41.13	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.22	0.18	65.00	66.70	0.06	0.06
Pacific	BW	0.21	0.18	35.00	37.47	-0.06	-0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.20	0.17	75.00	76.00	0.10	0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.19	0.17	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.17	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.19	0.17	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.16	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.14	0.16	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.16	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.19	0.16	60.87	61.37	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.16	78.26	78.39	0.08	0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.15	71.43	73.35	0.07	0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.21	0.15	30.00	33.20	-0.09	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.15	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.14	33.33	33.82	-0.07	-0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.14	27.78	29.87	-0.07	-0.06
Portland	WCC	0.20	0.14	21.74	21.70	-0.11	-0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.14	0.14	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.19	0.14	23.53	33.28	-0.10	-0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.18	0.14	80.95	76.42	0.11	0.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.18	0.14	83.33	84.76	0.12	0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.12	33.33	33.88	-0.05	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.10	0.12	70.00	73.28	0.04	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.20	0.12	85.71	82.18	0.14	0.07
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.11	13.64	16.14	-0.10	-0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.11	69.57	68.90	0.06	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.15	0.11	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.11	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.11	90.91	83.85	0.12	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.11	31.82	33.83	-0.05	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.11	82.61	77.63	0.09	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.11	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.04	0.11	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.09	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.09	28.57	26.30	-0.07	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.09	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.09	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.09	90.91	87.74	0.12	0.07
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.08	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.08	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.08	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.07
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.08	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.06
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.08	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.08	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.08	90.48	87.91	0.07	0.06
Hawaii	WAC	0.14	0.08	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.08	8.70	8.99	-0.07	-0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.08	73.91	68.58	0.04	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.08	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.14	0.08	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.08	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.08	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.08	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	25.00	37.58	-0.04	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.07	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.09	0.05	8.33	10.86	-0.08	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.05	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.05	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.05	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.05	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.05	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.05	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.05	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.04	0.05	100.00	94.55	0.04	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.05	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.04	0.05	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.05	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.05	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.05	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.05	78.26	72.34	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.05	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.04	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.04	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.04	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.04	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.04	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.00
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.04	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.04	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02