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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:49.9
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:34
Current Record:18-9
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:9-6
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-940.519.44%
20-1048.048.18%
19-1157.731.10%
18-1270.31.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Dakota St. (206.9)SumH82-53W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (151.4)BWH75-65W100%0.0
11-21San Diego St. (97.5)MWCN77-65L0%0.0
11-25Wyoming (141.8)MWCH71-61W100%0.0
11-27Southeastern Louisiana (245.3)SlndH67-55W100%0.0
11-30Louisiana Tech (114.0)CUSAH68-59W100%0.0
12-3Alcorn St. (234.1)SWACH83-59W100%0.0
12-6Princeton (56.6)IvyN62-51W100%0.0
12-7Seton Hall (51.1)BEN57-60L0%0.0
12-10UC Davis (206.3)BWH86-61W100%0.0
12-17Cal Poly (314.5)BWH81-55W100%0.0
12-21Virginia (21.4)ACCH52-56L0%0.0
12-30Arizona (6.9)P12H62-67L0%0.0
1-1Arizona St. (138.1)P12H81-65W100%0.0
1-5UCLA (17.7)P12A81-71L0%0.0
1-8USC (35.1)P12A73-74W100%0.0
1-12Washington (195.0)P12H69-59W100%0.0
1-14Washington St. (159.4)P12H58-54W100%0.0
1-19Oregon (8.1)P12A86-63L0%0.0
1-21Oregon St. (282.5)P12A58-69W100%0.0
1-29Stanford (77.3)P12H66-55W100%0.0
2-2Utah (91.5)P12H77-75W100%0.0
2-5Colorado (109.9)P12H77-66W100%0.0
2-8Arizona St. (138.1)P12A43-68W100%0.0
2-11Arizona (6.9)P12A62-57L0%0.0
2-17Stanford (77.3)P12A73-68L0%0.0
2-22Oregon (8.1)P12H65-68L0%0.0
2-24Oregon St. (282.5)P12H0-096%18.6
3-2Utah (91.5)P12A0-040%-2.6
3-4Colorado (109.9)P12A0-050%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.2226.2461.2662.375.906.49
StanfordP124.344.1450.0047.170.00-0.23
ColoradoP122.504.0657.6957.860.380.64
OregonP124.294.0684.6284.932.972.84
Oregon St.P122.544.0614.8114.40-1.79-2.89
Arizona St.P124.374.0650.0047.130.00-0.23
UtahP122.504.0662.5062.510.621.01
ArizonaP124.334.0388.4686.833.332.97
WashingtonP122.572.4834.6233.64-0.79-0.81
USCP122.502.4780.7778.391.541.40
Washington St.P122.532.4444.0041.37-0.30-0.42
UCLAP122.462.4488.4687.651.901.84
UC IrvineBW2.101.8953.8556.310.160.24
Cal PolyBW2.141.8926.0928.78-1.02-0.80
UC DavisBW1.961.7858.3357.930.330.28
WyomingMWC1.951.7556.0055.420.230.19
South Dakota St.Sum1.961.7544.4444.87-0.22-0.18
San Diego St.MWC1.951.7556.0056.600.230.23
Louisiana TechCUSA1.931.7372.0072.780.850.79
Seton HallBE1.921.7261.5460.440.440.36
PrincetonIvy1.891.7076.1977.000.990.92
Alcorn St.SWAC1.891.7054.5551.960.170.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.891.7050.0050.110.000.00
VirginiaACC1.851.6765.3866.480.570.55
HawaiiBW0.300.2948.0047.45-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2965.3864.150.080.08
Long Beach St.BW0.250.2840.7442.89-0.05-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.220.2626.0928.38-0.10-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2643.4843.27-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.280.2657.6957.750.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.2312.5014.87-0.19-0.16
UNLVMWC0.270.2235.7134.80-0.08-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.2130.7734.71-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2050.0049.820.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.180.2034.6233.56-0.05-0.07
NevadaMWC0.210.2078.5778.260.120.11
IdahoBSky0.210.1747.8350.77-0.010.00
XavierBE0.140.1764.2964.300.040.05
ButlerBE0.140.1778.5777.620.080.09
New MexicoMWC0.140.1757.1456.440.020.02
MontanaBSky0.210.1750.0050.340.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1465.3865.420.060.04
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1450.0046.860.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.140.1436.0035.97-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.180.1442.3143.98-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.170.1464.0064.920.050.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1433.3334.37-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1450.0049.560.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.170.1477.7875.390.090.07
PortlandWCC0.100.1429.6329.44-0.04-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1228.0028.91-0.07-0.05
HarvardIvy0.110.1266.6765.300.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1237.5040.16-0.04-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1264.2964.460.030.03
CornellIvy0.110.1225.0025.31-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.150.1259.0960.220.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1259.2662.730.020.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1234.7836.63-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.110.1165.5264.140.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.140.1140.0041.64-0.03-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1159.0960.070.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1134.7836.95-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.110.1139.1337.81-0.02-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1127.5928.17-0.06-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1148.1547.59-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1150.0049.130.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.140.11100.0099.810.140.11
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1151.8551.660.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0937.5042.38-0.03-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0948.0047.16-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0940.9140.59-0.01-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.0957.1457.070.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0946.1546.03-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0952.1753.700.000.01
DenverSum0.070.0957.1456.680.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0965.3864.780.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0925.0025.84-0.03-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0924.0022.54-0.04-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.110.0960.8760.770.020.02
Miami FLACC0.110.0970.3767.240.040.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.0988.8989.350.080.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0851.8551.810.000.00
SMUAmer0.110.0885.7185.540.080.06
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0841.6742.37-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0832.1430.89-0.02-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0850.0052.050.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0846.1547.81-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.100.0832.1432.21-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0875.0074.370.030.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.0860.7160.840.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.0889.6688.760.080.06
San DiegoWCC0.100.0840.7440.12-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.100.0818.5218.47-0.06-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0883.3384.080.070.06
KentuckySEC0.100.0882.1481.760.060.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.064.005.36-0.07-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0622.2224.27-0.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.080.0637.5037.60-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.040.0626.0925.97-0.02-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0614.2918.10-0.06-0.04
PennIvy0.080.0647.8350.32-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0655.5652.750.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0625.9326.05-0.02-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0660.8762.050.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0636.3636.47-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0622.2223.45-0.04-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0660.0060.590.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0642.8645.36-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0635.7135.66-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.070.0638.4639.08-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.070.0689.2987.840.060.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0630.7733.71-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0634.7833.41-0.01-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0627.2728.66-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.03
RiceCUSA0.040.0664.0063.500.010.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0662.9662.810.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0626.0925.92-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0629.6328.42-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7877.990.040.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0625.0026.25-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0623.0823.14-0.04-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0670.3770.540.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0648.1547.60-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0644.0042.70-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0653.8552.820.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0661.5459.750.020.01
ArmyPat0.070.0639.2938.46-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0681.4878.550.040.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0650.0049.270.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0664.0065.600.010.02
IowaB100.070.0653.5751.590.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0655.5655.100.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0620.0021.74-0.02-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.5778.520.040.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0662.9661.410.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0651.8550.690.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0682.1480.660.020.03
PittsburghACC0.030.0653.5750.750.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0659.2657.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0651.8552.250.000.00
TexasB120.030.0635.7134.84-0.01-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0678.5777.380.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0670.3769.250.030.02
WoffordSC0.030.0644.4443.90-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0553.5752.340.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0542.3143.63-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0569.5771.400.030.02
DavidsonA100.070.0553.8552.600.010.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0559.2657.930.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0525.9325.77-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0529.1731.48-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0540.9144.15-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0582.1480.780.040.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0544.8343.96-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0523.0822.08-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.040.0373.3373.730.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0342.8643.65-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0341.6743.49-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.040.0325.9325.63-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.040.0359.2660.160.010.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0357.6957.630.010.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0382.7681.880.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.040.0382.1479.370.030.02
ElonCAA0.040.0355.5656.900.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0348.0047.41-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0316.0018.13-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.0020.88-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0373.0873.880.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0331.8233.09-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0360.7159.890.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0356.0055.900.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0353.8554.710.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0322.7323.17-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0346.1546.49-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0374.0773.500.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0361.5462.870.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0358.3359.220.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0357.6956.380.010.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0348.1549.49-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0348.0046.99-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0386.2186.330.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0377.7876.390.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0332.1430.40-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0318.5220.01-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.8553.680.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.5776.170.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0346.4343.89-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0338.4638.56-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0382.1480.600.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0378.5776.210.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0335.7136.66-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0337.9339.64-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.33-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.7111.38-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.6257.910.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0369.2368.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.800.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0378.5777.800.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0364.2963.090.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0351.7250.330.000.00