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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:56.7
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:240
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:48
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-311.50.02%
27-412.00.12%
26-516.00.54%
25-619.51.98%
24-724.85.34%
23-831.210.53%
22-939.516.23%
21-1050.019.21%
20-1162.318.99%
19-1275.513.34%
18-1390.37.81%
17-14106.03.94%
16-15120.71.46%
15-16135.10.42%
14-17150.20.05%
13-18148.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alcorn St. (331.2)SWACH91-57W100%0.0
11-16Kennesaw St. (295.2)ASunH93-59W100%0.0
11-20Syracuse (71.5)ACCN73-59W100%0.0
11-21Texas (5.2)B12N55-71L0%0.0
11-26Cal Poly (230.2)BWH72-52W100%0.0
11-30Fresno St. (258.3)MWCA57-64W100%0.0
12-3Montana (163.2)BSkyH78-76W100%0.0
12-7Nevada (283.3)MWCA56-63W100%0.0
12-10Wyoming (72.2)MWCH45-42W100%0.0
12-13Princeton (236.6)IvyH67-57W100%0.0
12-19Eastern Washington (58.5)BSkyH0-066%4.9
12-22Wisconsin (5.8)B10H0-019%-10.5
12-28Cal St. Bakersfield (327.9)WACH0-096%20.2
1-2Washington (39.9)P12H0-060%2.9
1-4Washington St. (210.3)P12H0-091%16.1
1-7USC (189.1)P12A0-069%5.9
1-11UCLA (69.3)P12A0-037%-3.9
1-14Stanford (74.0)P12H0-068%5.4
1-22Arizona St. (98.6)P12H0-068%5.6
1-24Arizona (16.5)P12H0-044%-1.7
1-29Washington St. (210.3)P12A0-073%7.3
2-1Washington (39.9)P12A0-031%-5.8
2-5USC (189.1)P12H0-089%14.6
2-7UCLA (69.3)P12H0-066%4.8
2-12Colorado (66.2)P12A0-036%-4.3
2-15Utah (13.1)P12A0-013%-13.2
2-21Stanford (74.0)P12A0-039%-3.3
2-25Oregon (102.2)P12H0-069%5.9
3-1Oregon St. (131.4)P12H0-074%7.7
3-5Arizona (16.5)P12A0-019%-10.4
3-7Arizona St. (98.6)P12A0-040%-3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1227.7726.2288.1063.9921.167.34
StanfordP120.004.0075.0058.350.000.67
WashingtonP120.003.90100.0073.040.001.80
UCLAP120.003.8872.7357.880.000.61
ArizonaP120.003.87100.0081.430.002.43
Arizona St.P120.003.8760.0054.360.000.34
Washington St.P120.003.8740.0029.67-0.00-1.58
USCP120.003.8760.0037.220.00-0.99
ColoradoP120.282.4466.6758.010.090.39
UtahP120.002.4177.7879.220.001.41
OregonP120.002.4166.6758.990.000.43
Oregon St.P120.002.4177.7856.530.000.31
Fresno St.MWC5.361.7933.3330.87-1.79-0.68
NevadaMWC5.361.7612.5025.94-4.02-0.84
WyomingMWC5.001.7587.5075.993.750.91
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.7366.6778.640.000.99
TexasB125.311.7088.8981.254.131.06
MontanaBSky5.001.6728.5754.09-2.140.14
Cal PolyBW5.531.6750.0040.300.00-0.32
Kennesaw St.ASun5.591.6740.0034.87-1.12-0.50
Alcorn St.SWAC5.481.670.0029.34-5.48-0.69
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.251.6410.0031.42-0.20-0.61
SyracuseACC5.231.6475.0059.732.610.32
PrincetonIvy5.001.6130.0039.20-2.00-0.35
WisconsinB100.001.6190.9188.630.001.25
San Diego St.MWC0.000.3370.0072.830.000.15
UNLVMWC0.000.3375.0050.750.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.230.300.007.84-0.23-0.26
Utah St.MWC0.000.2555.5650.970.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.280.2540.0050.07-0.060.00
Colorado St.MWC0.310.23100.0078.050.310.13
Montana St.BSky0.280.2222.2228.69-0.15-0.10
UTEPCUSA0.230.2266.6772.670.080.10
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2014.2933.32-0.00-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.2050.0041.830.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.2036.3638.88-0.08-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1970.0058.600.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.1990.0090.940.000.15
OklahomaB120.000.1877.7867.290.000.06
IdahoBSky0.000.1737.5049.83-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.1742.8643.10-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1737.5064.43-0.000.05
SeattleWAC0.310.1737.5046.50-0.08-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.250.1737.5046.78-0.06-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.310.1775.0068.680.160.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1625.0023.43-0.00-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.280.1528.5742.17-0.12-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.1528.5757.26-0.120.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1420.0038.24-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1457.1461.670.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.140.008.88-0.00-0.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1420.0028.20-0.00-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1433.3340.31-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.250.1425.0042.64-0.13-0.02
IowaB100.840.1372.7362.590.380.03
DukeACC0.000.13100.0087.140.000.10
MichiganB100.280.1355.5642.550.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.670.1250.0053.850.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0032.77-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.1285.7161.020.000.03
DelawareCAA0.360.110.007.39-0.36-0.10
South DakotaSum0.000.1127.2738.97-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1125.0033.17-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.1160.0034.110.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.280.1150.0038.180.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.40-0.00-0.08
HarvardIvy0.000.1185.7172.940.000.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1116.6726.28-0.00-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1166.6742.100.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1190.9153.850.000.01
TCUB120.000.11100.0066.180.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1066.6754.660.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1060.0037.220.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0966.6754.830.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0911.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0933.3362.92-0.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0910.0018.01-0.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0033.84-0.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0942.8642.32-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0940.0050.78-0.050.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.0936.3664.92-0.080.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0937.5041.20-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0850.0040.880.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.790.0855.5656.400.090.01
StetsonASun0.280.0810.0027.42-0.22-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0825.0037.13-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0855.5648.240.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0866.6767.300.000.03
DenverSum0.280.0850.0054.230.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.230.0833.3354.74-0.080.01
IllinoisB100.000.0872.7365.930.000.03
KansasB120.000.0888.8969.390.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0888.8963.660.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.250.0875.0058.430.130.01
San DiegoWCC0.230.0854.5557.300.020.01
Texas TechB120.250.0888.8955.910.190.01
ConnecticutAmer0.250.0850.0057.510.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0844.4448.88-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0043.08-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.250.08100.0094.790.250.07
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.870.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0890.9167.660.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0018.94-0.00-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.630.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.0830.0037.28-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0618.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.53-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.280.0670.0071.330.110.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.590.0640.0050.32-0.120.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0633.3334.28-0.10-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.58-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.91-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
ClemsonACC0.280.0566.6745.670.09-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0580.0057.630.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.230.0544.4451.58-0.030.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0550.0038.000.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0056.560.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0577.7868.780.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0537.5040.20-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0520.0029.81-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0550.0049.620.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.790.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0542.8637.65-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0544.4457.85-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7876.240.000.03
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.870.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0520.0034.08-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0557.1470.590.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.40-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0588.8963.800.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0537.5047.71-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.730.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0544.4431.58-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0537.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6743.780.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.620.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0530.0031.57-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.340.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0577.7865.390.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.130.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.0066.940.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.360.0366.6757.860.120.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.360.0371.4357.100.150.00
DavidsonA100.310.0387.5077.020.230.02
Murray St.OVC0.310.0355.5661.790.030.01
OhioMAC0.310.0342.8638.11-0.04-0.01
TroySB0.310.0333.3339.46-0.10-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.0344.4455.75-0.030.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.000.000.01
Seton HallBE0.280.0390.0067.260.220.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.230.0380.0072.550.140.01
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0337.5038.60-0.06-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.87-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.250.0377.7871.110.140.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.0328.5741.17-0.10-0.00
FIUCUSA0.230.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.030.0012.36-0.28-0.02
George MasonA100.230.0325.0025.93-0.11-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.230.0375.0074.340.110.01
Kent St.MAC0.230.0371.4361.370.100.01
LafayettePat0.230.0375.0069.820.110.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.250.0310.0018.61-0.20-0.02
MercerSC0.230.0337.5042.45-0.06-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.59-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0366.6748.410.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.230.0350.0052.800.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.0336.3647.13-0.06-0.00
SamfordSC0.230.0333.3331.58-0.08-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0310.0020.91-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.320.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.0345.4544.07-0.02-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0366.6759.460.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.350.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.480.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.280.0357.1453.130.040.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.0372.7367.750.130.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.280.0333.3327.70-0.09-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.150.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.250.0350.0062.270.000.01
St. John'sBE0.280.0387.5065.040.210.01
Texas St.SB0.250.0350.0050.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.0355.5654.950.030.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02