live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:190.3
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:56
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1597.00.02%
14-16123.20.12%
13-17134.50.70%
12-18152.33.93%
11-19168.113.16%
10-20182.625.89%
9-21195.930.78%
8-22208.419.87%
7-23218.75.52%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UC Riverside (301.7)BWH66-74L0%0.0
11-12Cal Poly (282.9)BWH85-82W100%0.0
11-16Wofford (117.5)SCH79-65W100%0.0
11-20Wichita St. (18.0)AmerN82-92L0%0.0
11-21VCU (127.7)A10N69-83L0%0.0
11-28Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWH83-63W100%0.0
12-2Saint Mary's (34.6)WCCH63-74L0%0.0
12-6Central Arkansas (237.0)SlndH69-96L0%0.0
12-9San Diego St. (85.9)MWCA62-63W100%0.0
12-16Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWH95-89W100%0.0
12-19Seattle (199.6)WACA59-81W100%0.0
12-21Portland St. (122.0)BSkyH81-106L0%0.0
12-30Stanford (89.2)P12A74-77W100%0.0
1-4USC (34.7)P12H62-80L0%0.0
1-6UCLA (63.4)P12H84-107L0%0.0
1-11Washington (76.6)P12A66-56L0%0.0
1-13Washington St. (171.2)P12A78-53L0%0.0
1-17Arizona (16.0)P12H58-79L0%0.0
1-20Arizona St. (32.2)P12H73-81L0%0.0
1-25UCLA (63.4)P12A0-08%-15.8
1-28USC (34.7)P12A0-06%-17.3
2-1Oregon (67.2)P12H0-020%-9.3
2-3Oregon St. (145.6)P12H0-039%-3.1
2-7Colorado (83.8)P12A0-018%-10.0
2-10Utah (67.5)P12A0-012%-13.2
2-18Stanford (89.2)P12H0-034%-4.5
2-22Washington St. (171.2)P12H0-050%0.1
2-24Washington (76.6)P12H0-038%-3.5
3-1Arizona St. (32.2)P12A0-05%-18.1
3-3Arizona (16.0)P12A0-03%-20.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.3526.2231.4327.54-9.79-11.78
StanfordP123.184.1657.8951.580.500.13
Washington St.P123.104.0844.4439.06-0.34-0.89
USCP122.914.0370.0066.301.171.31
WashingtonP122.964.0268.4260.071.090.81
Arizona St.P122.844.0277.7874.611.581.98
UCLAP122.904.0263.1659.620.760.77
ArizonaP122.773.9978.9577.591.602.20
OregonP120.412.5565.0063.320.120.68
ColoradoP120.402.4960.0052.760.080.14
Oregon St.P120.262.4957.8950.490.040.02
UtahP120.402.4963.1658.690.100.43
Cal St. FullertonBW2.911.9360.0059.100.580.35
UC RiversideBW2.941.9112.5021.04-2.20-1.11
Cal PolyBW2.861.9025.0029.25-1.43-0.79
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.791.8518.7520.01-1.74-1.11
SeattleWAC2.911.8361.1156.520.650.24
Saint Mary'sWCC2.851.7890.0088.592.281.38
San Diego St.MWC2.771.7862.5065.150.690.54
Portland St.BSky2.771.7856.2561.840.350.42
Central ArkansasSlnd2.701.7542.1147.54-0.43-0.09
VCUA102.631.6757.8958.350.420.28
Wichita St.Amer2.631.6777.7876.601.460.89
WoffordSC2.631.6773.3366.041.230.53
Long Beach St.BW0.370.4140.0043.35-0.07-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.430.3830.0039.93-0.17-0.08
UC DavisBW0.290.3558.8262.440.050.09
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.300.3070.5969.630.120.12
HawaiiBW0.150.2768.7563.990.060.08
Idaho St.BSky0.440.2643.7540.93-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.440.2627.7829.10-0.20-0.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.360.2638.8946.05-0.08-0.02
MontanaBSky0.360.2370.5973.150.150.10
PacificWCC0.340.1945.0044.47-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.280.1970.0070.570.110.08
San FranciscoWCC0.200.1950.0048.730.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.380.1816.6724.45-0.25-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1729.4133.20-0.05-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.280.1733.3332.94-0.09-0.06
KansasB120.200.1684.2179.750.140.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.1566.6766.020.080.05
Fresno St.MWC0.230.1566.6763.420.080.04
PortlandWCC0.230.1527.7827.28-0.10-0.07
IdahoBSky0.220.1464.7166.850.070.05
UNLVMWC0.070.1473.6865.260.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1483.3384.240.130.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1450.0052.460.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1411.1115.29-0.11-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.210.1480.9583.260.130.09
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1452.6347.390.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.1237.5031.76-0.02-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.1145.0041.33-0.01-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.220.1110.5318.34-0.17-0.07
MichiganB100.210.1176.1970.740.110.05
New MexicoMWC0.140.1145.0048.56-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.140.1163.1657.540.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.1189.4785.550.050.08
Kansas St.B120.140.1173.6862.720.070.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1136.8435.57-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.130.1177.7867.910.070.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1144.4450.31-0.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1168.4263.960.050.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.0970.0071.230.060.04
GeorgiaSEC0.220.0966.6755.940.070.01
HarvardIvy0.230.0937.5046.69-0.06-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.150.0945.0045.49-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0944.4454.860.000.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0921.0524.75-0.08-0.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0961.1156.830.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0978.9576.990.040.05
San Jose St.MWC0.140.0911.7612.81-0.11-0.06
VMISC0.150.0925.0024.15-0.07-0.04
DetroitHorz0.140.0921.0525.97-0.08-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.150.0952.6343.110.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.0950.0051.380.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0847.3746.92-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.087.1414.820.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.140.0871.4374.660.060.04
George MasonA100.080.0845.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0816.6724.91-0.09-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.150.0880.0075.060.090.04
PrincetonIvy0.140.0852.9460.220.010.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0827.7831.71-0.06-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0847.3742.16-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.140.0855.0053.320.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0885.7180.080.050.05
BYUWCC0.060.0880.9576.240.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0850.0051.640.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0821.0544.26-0.04-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0833.3336.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.130.0847.3750.94-0.010.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.07-0.07-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0677.7879.150.000.03
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.540.030.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0685.7182.090.000.04
SamfordSC0.080.0627.7832.66-0.04-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.36-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0668.7567.600.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0656.2557.400.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0638.8935.370.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.080.0666.6763.070.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0666.6765.640.050.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.26-0.03-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0658.8257.140.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0637.5033.780.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0636.8444.11-0.04-0.01
North FloridaASun0.150.0631.5835.15-0.05-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0652.6358.590.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0652.9452.650.000.00
BaylorB120.140.0661.1156.090.030.01
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.700.030.02
HoustonAmer0.140.0678.9572.990.080.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.83-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.970.030.02
Little RockSB0.130.0622.2225.25-0.07-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.16-0.05-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0623.5328.69-0.07-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0643.7549.13-0.01-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.380.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.980.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0652.9455.030.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0680.0078.850.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0652.6351.740.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0668.4260.860.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.140.0568.4260.550.050.01
AkronMAC0.060.0547.0644.91-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0568.4258.980.020.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0573.6871.560.030.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0538.8944.75-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0572.2274.710.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0525.0028.01-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0565.0056.340.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0563.1663.220.020.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0580.9576.520.040.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0570.0060.470.030.01
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.370.050.04
RichmondA100.070.0531.5834.36-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0555.5655.540.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0568.4257.740.020.01
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0365.0057.880.020.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0362.5058.690.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.14-0.04-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0389.4785.210.060.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0329.4139.63-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0361.1151.910.020.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.080.0378.9571.810.050.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.030.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0010.670.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.200.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.45-0.05-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0330.0036.500.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0355.0048.980.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.720.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.260.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.035.8819.350.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.020.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0344.4444.920.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0350.0054.890.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0522.020.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.020.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0335.0031.830.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.28-0.06-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.890.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0316.6724.260.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0333.3337.23-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.700.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.900.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1134.310.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.750.040.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.430.000.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.730.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.00
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.630.020.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.140.060.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01