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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:50.4
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:76
Current SOS:139
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.00.01%
29-25.00.01%
28-38.30.14%
27-49.60.49%
26-514.01.82%
25-618.54.90%
24-725.39.90%
23-832.414.78%
22-942.018.32%
21-1052.618.31%
20-1164.814.11%
19-1278.99.27%
18-1392.44.79%
17-14108.02.04%
16-15124.50.75%
15-16138.50.31%
14-17156.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alcorn St. (314.8)SWACH91-57W100%0.0
11-16Kennesaw St. (318.5)ASunH93-59W100%0.0
11-20Syracuse (39.0)ACCN73-59W100%0.0
11-21Texas (8.0)B12N55-71L0%0.0
11-26Cal Poly (235.8)BWH0-095%19.6
11-30Fresno St. (254.7)MWCA0-085%12.2
12-3Montana (177.9)BSkyH0-092%16.9
12-7Nevada (181.0)MWCA0-072%7.0
12-10Wyoming (87.6)MWCH0-076%8.6
12-13Princeton (247.3)IvyH0-095%19.7
12-19Eastern Washington (69.0)BSkyH0-078%9.2
12-22Wisconsin (7.1)B10H0-035%-4.7
12-28Cal St. Bakersfield (291.1)WACH0-097%22.4
1-2Washington (106.0)P12H0-078%9.3
1-4Washington St. (219.5)P12H0-093%17.6
1-7USC (225.8)P12A0-083%11.4
1-11UCLA (53.3)P12A0-041%-2.9
1-14Stanford (32.1)P12H0-056%1.9
1-22Arizona St. (101.0)P12H0-074%7.6
1-24Arizona (18.1)P12H0-053%0.8
1-29Washington St. (219.5)P12A0-081%10.5
2-1Washington (106.0)P12A0-057%2.1
2-5USC (225.8)P12H0-094%18.6
2-7UCLA (53.3)P12H0-064%4.3
2-12Colorado (82.2)P12A0-050%-0.1
2-15Utah (26.1)P12A0-030%-6.2
2-21Stanford (32.1)P12A0-033%-5.3
2-25Oregon (66.8)P12H0-068%5.5
3-1Oregon St. (194.3)P12H0-088%14.0
3-5Arizona (18.1)P12A0-030%-6.4
3-7Arizona St. (101.0)P12A0-051%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1230.3126.2568.7566.7911.378.81
StanfordP120.004.0280.0071.490.001.73
WashingtonP120.003.92100.0057.760.000.61
USCP120.003.8950.0030.140.00-1.55
Arizona St.P120.003.8960.0055.410.000.42
Washington St.P120.003.8933.3330.40-0.00-1.52
ArizonaP120.003.89100.0077.130.002.11
UCLAP120.003.89100.0066.510.001.28
ColoradoP120.002.4775.0059.840.000.49
OregonP120.002.4460.0064.240.000.70
UtahP120.002.4466.6772.810.001.11
Oregon St.P120.002.4466.6745.730.00-0.21
Fresno St.MWC0.001.790.0025.70-0.00-0.87
NevadaMWC0.001.7625.0043.90-0.00-0.21
WyomingMWC0.001.76100.0069.360.000.68
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.7375.0075.900.000.90
TexasB1214.061.70100.0079.4614.061.00
Cal PolyBW0.001.6750.0035.370.00-0.49
MontanaBSky0.001.6733.3353.00-0.000.10
Kennesaw St.ASun15.311.6725.0027.24-7.66-0.76
Alcorn St.SWAC15.001.670.0034.25-15.00-0.53
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.6420.0039.41-0.00-0.35
SyracuseACC13.751.64100.0070.1613.750.66
PrincetonIvy0.001.6125.0040.74-0.00-0.30
WisconsinB100.001.61100.0084.940.001.13
UNLVMWC0.000.3375.0050.770.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.290.0019.30-0.00-0.18
San Diego St.MWC0.000.29100.0087.570.000.21
Utah St.MWC0.000.2575.0061.090.000.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.23100.0065.600.000.07
Montana St.BSky0.000.230.0021.79-0.00-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.000.200.0028.60-0.00-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2025.0033.31-0.00-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.2025.0052.70-0.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.20100.0085.190.000.14
Portland St.BSky0.000.20100.0048.940.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.2060.0056.280.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.180.0057.70-0.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1733.3348.77-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.170.0029.35-0.00-0.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1725.0045.15-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1780.0063.110.000.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.1733.3367.26-0.000.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.17100.0070.870.000.07
OklahomaB120.000.1766.6756.850.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1633.3326.91-0.00-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.150.0020.75-0.00-0.09
Weber St.BSky0.000.1525.0054.27-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.150.0051.20-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.1433.3345.79-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1440.0044.83-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1416.6731.76-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.140.0042.35-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1466.6750.600.000.00
IowaB102.500.1460.0064.290.500.04
MichiganB100.000.1375.0066.400.000.04
DukeACC0.000.13100.0084.950.000.09
UC DavisBW0.000.12100.0042.270.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1266.6763.740.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.120.0044.87-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1233.3330.38-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.110.0018.08-0.00-0.07
South DakotaSum0.000.110.0038.43-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1133.3340.07-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1166.6774.280.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.11100.0036.220.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0019.97-0.00-0.07
TCUB120.000.11100.0057.870.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1183.3348.030.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.1180.0058.990.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1140.0038.71-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1160.0057.210.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0966.6754.720.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0933.3340.34-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0017.79-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.95-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0066.91-0.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0035.37-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0920.0050.95-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0950.0046.060.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0950.0066.080.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3336.17-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0940.0067.55-0.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0030.140.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum2.500.0850.0046.130.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0031.72-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.080.0032.66-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0820.0035.41-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.08100.0065.710.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0089.550.000.06
BYUWCC0.000.0866.6769.270.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0866.6766.590.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.08100.0055.110.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0866.6754.750.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0875.0045.460.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0866.6760.800.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0850.0037.650.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.08100.0072.100.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0875.0070.310.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0860.0059.230.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0825.0039.71-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0620.0038.78-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.25-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.52-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.78-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0065.600.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0020.18-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0037.50-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0047.31-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.72-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6738.430.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.58-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3353.25-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC2.810.0620.0045.09-1.69-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0047.180.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0079.080.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6759.490.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.250.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0625.0048.23-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.950.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.700.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6754.040.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0052.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0533.3330.02-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0560.0066.000.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.05100.0069.380.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0540.0058.90-0.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0036.72-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0533.3340.46-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0520.0029.38-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0566.6744.670.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0533.3358.10-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0580.0076.700.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0520.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0575.0063.470.000.01
LehighPat0.000.050.0035.78-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0575.0067.070.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.05100.0070.280.000.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0070.500.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0550.0050.280.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0550.0031.510.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6761.780.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0072.230.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.500.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3337.42-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.51-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0065.570.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0029.87-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.48-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.03-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6752.600.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0042.26-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0042.64-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0035.490.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3333.84-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0366.6762.900.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0055.820.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0056.990.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.780.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.32-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0325.0036.61-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.650.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.620.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.660.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0058.780.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0366.6769.740.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
MercerSC1.250.0333.3353.13-0.420.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.680.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0380.0067.040.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0040.15-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0025.13-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3344.17-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.950.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.54-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3346.11-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.63-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0039.52-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.350.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0066.730.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.500.000.02
Loyola MDPat1.250.0340.0028.76-0.25-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0081.280.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0069.870.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.980.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0071.450.000.01
St. Francis PANEC1.250.0325.0044.79-0.62-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0051.970.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0078.020.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.610.000.01