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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:68.2
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:159
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-36.00.01%
26-412.70.07%
25-516.00.31%
24-620.60.98%
23-726.43.26%
22-833.57.37%
21-942.112.10%
20-1052.917.86%
19-1165.718.83%
18-1279.515.90%
17-1395.112.32%
16-14110.76.53%
15-15128.52.85%
14-16145.51.15%
13-17160.70.35%
12-18179.20.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Dakota St. (254.3)SumH82-53W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (155.6)BWH75-65W100%0.0
11-21San Diego St. (47.5)MWCN77-65L0%0.0
11-25Wyoming (182.2)MWCH71-61W100%0.0
11-27Southeastern Louisiana (203.3)SlndH67-55W100%0.0
11-30Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAH68-59W100%0.0
12-3Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACH0-099%27.2
12-6Princeton (95.0)IvyN0-063%4.1
12-7Seton Hall (76.8)BEN0-049%-0.2
12-10UC Davis (236.9)BWH0-092%17.2
12-17Cal Poly (281.6)BWH0-095%19.3
12-21Virginia (4.7)ACCH0-018%-11.0
12-30Arizona (28.2)P12H0-048%-0.7
1-1Arizona St. (165.8)P12H0-084%11.8
1-5UCLA (19.0)P12A0-017%-11.7
1-8USC (44.4)P12A0-032%-5.7
1-12Washington (105.3)P12H0-066%5.0
1-14Washington St. (196.7)P12H0-086%12.9
1-19Oregon (50.4)P12A0-033%-5.2
1-21Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-081%10.5
1-29Stanford (54.1)P12H0-061%3.3
2-2Utah (80.8)P12H0-061%3.3
2-5Colorado (84.8)P12H0-061%3.4
2-8Arizona St. (165.8)P12A0-068%5.7
2-11Arizona (28.2)P12A0-028%-6.9
2-17Stanford (54.1)P12A0-041%-2.9
2-22Oregon (50.4)P12H0-053%1.0
2-24Oregon St. (264.9)P12H0-092%16.7
3-2Utah (80.8)P12A0-040%-2.9
3-4Colorado (84.8)P12A0-041%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1229.5226.2675.0059.0214.764.74
StanfordP120.004.1575.0059.820.000.82
ColoradoP120.004.0771.4360.610.000.86
OregonP120.004.0771.4367.440.001.42
Oregon St.P120.004.0728.5724.48-0.00-2.08
Arizona St.P120.004.0757.1436.880.00-1.07
UtahP120.004.0675.0062.000.000.97
ArizonaP120.004.0485.7171.600.001.74
WashingtonP120.002.4957.1453.270.000.16
Washington St.P120.002.4550.0037.630.00-0.61
UCLAP120.002.45100.0083.550.001.64
USCP120.002.45100.0075.630.001.25
Cal PolyBW0.001.9033.3337.06-0.00-0.49
UC IrvineBW9.521.8957.1456.651.360.25
UC DavisBW0.001.7857.1449.860.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum10.211.7516.6738.86-6.81-0.39
San Diego St.MWC8.331.7566.6774.022.780.84
Louisiana TechCUSA8.331.7350.0070.370.000.70
WyomingMWC8.931.7375.0050.394.460.01
Seton HallBE0.001.7271.4354.650.000.16
PrincetonIvy0.001.7025.0065.05-0.000.51
Alcorn St.SWAC0.001.700.0033.64-0.00-0.55
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd8.331.7060.0058.441.670.29
VirginiaACC0.001.67100.0082.560.001.09
Colorado St.MWC0.690.3083.3361.490.460.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.280.0039.35-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.270.0033.43-0.00-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2660.0039.610.00-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2616.6743.29-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.2350.0050.940.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.2371.4349.590.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.230.0033.44-0.00-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.2116.6732.62-0.00-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.000.2150.0042.710.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.2075.0070.470.000.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2016.6730.02-0.00-0.08
XavierBE0.000.18100.0074.800.000.09
New MexicoMWC0.000.1871.4358.670.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.17100.0075.690.000.09
IdahoBSky0.600.1740.0050.88-0.120.00
MontanaBSky0.830.1714.2947.44-0.60-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1540.0037.44-0.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.520.1550.0053.560.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1550.0056.260.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1550.0058.980.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1428.5728.46-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC1.040.140.0024.19-1.04-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.520.1437.5036.24-0.13-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.14100.0076.650.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.1460.0057.170.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.830.1214.2934.56-0.60-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.1228.5730.63-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.000.120.0043.04-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1260.0058.950.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1228.5734.18-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1233.3364.14-0.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1257.1467.020.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.1271.4368.660.000.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1125.0030.93-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
GonzagaWCC1.040.11100.0091.061.040.09
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1140.0057.49-0.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1120.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1114.2929.15-0.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.1150.0047.560.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1166.6766.100.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1083.3350.740.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.690.090.0042.55-0.69-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0942.8642.47-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0966.6754.420.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0933.3323.33-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.830.0933.3341.11-0.28-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0061.810.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0940.0030.80-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.040.000.07
UTEPCUSA0.690.0925.0043.26-0.35-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0920.0054.94-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC1.040.0928.5727.50-0.45-0.04
PacificWCC1.350.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0980.0035.960.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0971.4365.740.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0866.6751.090.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0860.0043.970.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0871.4356.280.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0083.120.000.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0871.4368.100.000.03
TulaneAmer0.690.0814.2926.81-0.50-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0023.47-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0640.0057.97-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC1.120.0683.3380.700.740.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.530.060.0034.23-1.53-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz1.120.0633.3333.15-0.37-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.01-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.830.06100.0080.780.830.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.830.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0585.7172.660.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.45-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0550.0059.670.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0550.0061.590.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0550.0045.920.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0525.0040.37-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0571.4374.450.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0542.8638.05-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01