California

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	216.0
Current RPI:	216
Expected SOS:	58
Current SOS:	58
Current Record:	8-23
Expected Record:	8-23
Current Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	191
Expected OOC SOS:	127

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-23	216.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	66-74	L	0%
11-12	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	85-82	W	100%
11-16	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	79-65	W	100%
11-20	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	N	82-92	L	0%
11-21	VCU (135.0)	A10	N	69-83	L	0%
11-28	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	83-63	W	100%
12-2	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	63-74	L	0%
12-6	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	69-96	L	0%
12-9	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	62-63	W	100%
12-16	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	95-89	W	100%
12-19	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	59-81	W	100%
12-21	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	81-106	L	0%
12-30	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	74-77	W	100%
1-4	USC (34.0)	P12	H	62-80	L	0%
1-6	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	84-107	L	0%
1-11	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	66-56	L	0%
1-13	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	78-53	L	0%
1-17	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	58-79	L	0%
1-20	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	73-81	L	0%
1-25	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	70-57	L	0%
1-28	USC (34.0)	P12	A	77-59	L	0%
2-1	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	53-66	L	0%
2-3	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	74-70	W	100%
2-7	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	68-64	L	0%
2-10	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	77-43	L	0%
2-18	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	73-77	L	0%
2-22	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	76-78	L	0%
2-24	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	51-68	L	0%
3-1	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	84-53	L	0%
3-3	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	66-54	L	0%
3-7	Stanford (86.0)	P12	N	76-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
California	P12	26.24	26.24	22.64	22.64	-14.36	-14.36
Stanford	P12	5.64	5.64	53.33	53.33	0.38	0.38
UCLA	P12	4.02	4.02	63.33	63.33	1.07	1.07
Arizona	P12	4.00	4.00	78.12	78.12	2.25	2.25
USC	P12	4.00	4.00	65.62	65.62	1.25	1.25
Washington St.	P12	3.97	3.97	34.48	34.48	-1.23	-1.23
Washington	P12	3.93	3.93	60.00	60.00	0.79	0.79
Arizona St.	P12	3.92	3.92	62.07	62.07	0.95	0.95
Oregon	P12	2.57	2.57	63.64	63.64	0.70	0.70
Colorado	P12	2.49	2.49	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Oregon St.	P12	2.48	2.48	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Utah	P12	2.41	2.41	62.07	62.07	0.58	0.58
Cal Poly	BW	1.86	1.86	25.00	25.00	-0.93	-0.93
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.85	1.85	64.29	64.29	0.53	0.53
UC Riverside	BW	1.84	1.84	21.43	21.43	-1.05	-1.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.78	1.78	14.81	14.81	-1.25	-1.25
Seattle	WAC	1.77	1.77	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Portland St.	BSky	1.74	1.74	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.72	1.72	84.38	84.38	1.18	1.18
San Diego St.	MWC	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.69	1.69	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
VCU	A10	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Wichita St.	Amer	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Wofford	SC	1.61	1.61	62.07	62.07	0.39	0.39
Long Beach St.	BW	0.42	0.42	41.94	41.94	-0.07	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.38	0.38	66.67	66.67	0.13	0.13
UC Irvine	BW	0.38	0.38	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.30	0.30	70.00	70.00	0.12	0.12
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.29	0.29	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.25	0.25	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Montana	BSky	0.23	0.23	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
Pacific	WCC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	16.67	16.67	-0.13	-0.13
Kansas	B12	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
SMU	Amer	0.17	0.17	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Idaho	BSky	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
UNLV	MWC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.06	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01