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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:16.0
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:15
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1016.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Rice (279.0)CUSAH97-65W100%0.0
11-16UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH85-67W100%0.0
11-20East Carolina (217.0)AmerH70-62W100%0.0
11-23Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH89-63W100%0.0
11-26San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN72-58L0%0.0
11-27Richmond (121.0)A10N90-94L0%0.0
12-1Seattle (287.0)WACH66-52W100%0.0
12-5Wyoming (187.0)MWCA72-78W100%0.0
12-9Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH74-62W100%0.0
12-12Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH63-59W100%0.0
12-19Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH84-51W100%0.0
12-22Virginia (3.0)ACCA63-62L0%0.0
12-28Davidson (64.0)A10H86-60W100%0.0
1-1Colorado (35.0)P12H79-65W100%0.0
1-3Utah (8.0)P12H71-58W100%0.0
1-6Oregon (2.0)P12A68-65L0%0.0
1-9Oregon St. (33.0)P12A77-71L0%0.0
1-14Stanford (86.0)P12A77-71L0%0.0
1-21Arizona St. (99.0)P12H75-70W100%0.0
1-23Arizona (26.0)P12H74-73W100%0.0
1-27Utah (8.0)P12A73-64L0%0.0
1-31Colorado (35.0)P12A70-62L0%0.0
2-6Stanford (86.0)P12H76-61W100%0.0
2-11Oregon (2.0)P12H83-63W100%0.0
2-13Oregon St. (33.0)P12H83-71W100%0.0
2-18Washington (83.0)P12A75-78W100%0.0
2-21Washington St. (212.0)P12A62-80W100%0.0
2-25UCLA (102.0)P12H75-63W100%0.0
2-28USC (51.0)P12H87-65W100%0.0
3-3Arizona (26.0)P12A64-61L0%0.0
3-5Arizona St. (99.0)P12A65-68W100%0.0
3-10Oregon St. (33.0)P12N76-68W100%0.0
3-11Utah (8.0)P12N82-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.3426.3470.7370.7310.9210.92
UtahP125.325.3276.6776.672.842.84
Oregon St.P125.315.3162.9662.961.381.38
OregonP123.893.8983.8783.872.642.64
StanfordP123.843.8448.1548.15-0.14-0.14
ColoradoP123.823.8266.6766.671.271.27
Arizona St.P123.763.7650.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP123.753.7577.4277.422.062.06
WashingtonP122.402.4058.0658.060.390.39
USCP122.382.3865.6265.620.740.74
Washington St.P122.302.3027.5927.59-1.03-1.03
UCLAP122.282.2848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.711.7158.6258.620.300.30
San Diego St.MWC1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
RiceCUSA1.621.6234.4834.48-0.50-0.50
Saint Mary'sWCC1.571.5786.6786.671.151.15
Incarnate WordSlnd1.571.5758.3358.330.260.26
SeattleWAC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
RichmondA101.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA101.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
WyomingMWC1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.551.5553.5753.570.110.11
East CarolinaAmer1.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Coppin St.MEAC1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
VirginiaACC1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
UNLVMWC0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Boise St.MWC0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
Houston BaptistSlnd0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.180.1872.4172.410.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
SMUAmer0.170.1783.3383.330.120.12
BYUWCC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1682.1482.140.100.10
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
LamarSlnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
UC DavisBW0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
KansasB120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
FordhamA100.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
George MasonA100.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Texas TechB120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
TempleAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1020.8320.83-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01