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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:42.4
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:82
Current Record:18-6
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:31.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-627.19.42%
24-733.828.41%
23-842.334.44%
22-952.520.61%
21-1065.26.01%
20-1178.91.01%
19-1296.00.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Irvine (260.2)BWH77-56W100%0.0
11-13George Washington (196.4)A10H81-54W100%0.0
11-15Austin Peay (200.2)OVCH72-55W100%0.0
11-21Georgia (132.0)SECN46-70W100%0.0
11-22Missouri (11.7)B12N92-53L0%0.0
11-26Denver (91.3)SBH80-59W100%0.0
11-28McNeese St. (218.1)SlndH73-57W100%0.0
12-4San Diego St. (26.6)MWCA64-63L0%0.0
12-7San Jose St. (281.3)WACH81-36W100%0.0
12-11Jackson St. (308.4)SWACH73-46W100%0.0
12-16Weber St. (84.1)BSkyH77-57W100%0.0
12-19UC Santa Barbara (147.3)BWH70-50W100%0.0
12-23Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)MWCA85-68L0%0.0
12-29Southern California (232.8)P12H53-49W100%0.0
12-31UCLA (109.2)P12H85-69W100%0.0
1-5Oregon St. (114.4)P12A92-85L0%0.0
1-8Oregon (86.8)P12A60-77W100%0.0
1-12Colorado (75.2)P12H57-50W100%0.0
1-14Utah (272.4)P12H81-45W100%0.0
1-19Washington (69.1)P12A66-69W100%0.0
1-21Washington St. (164.6)P12A77-75L0%0.0
1-29Stanford (89.9)P12H69-59W100%0.0
2-2Arizona (75.8)P12H74-78L0%0.0
2-4Arizona St. (241.2)P12H68-47W100%0.0
2-9Southern California (232.8)P12A0-084%10.9
2-11UCLA (109.2)P12A0-055%1.3
2-16Oregon (86.8)P12H0-086%11.6
2-18Oregon St. (114.4)P12H0-078%8.4
2-23Utah (272.4)P12A0-098%21.4
2-26Colorado (75.2)P12A0-062%3.2
3-4Stanford (89.9)P12A0-052%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.1526.2472.7375.0311.8813.14
StanfordP122.553.9972.7371.441.161.71
UtahP122.603.9619.0516.03-1.61-2.69
Southern CaliforniaP122.693.9626.0926.32-1.29-1.88
ColoradoP122.593.9670.0065.991.041.26
OregonP122.553.9472.7368.631.161.47
Oregon St.P122.543.9461.9063.320.611.05
UCLAP122.603.9157.1459.230.370.72
ArizonaP122.602.4165.2267.510.790.84
WashingtonP122.602.4072.7368.831.180.91
Arizona St.P122.552.3831.8232.52-0.93-0.83
Washington St.P122.542.3747.6246.31-0.12-0.17
UC IrvineBW2.291.7936.8436.62-0.60-0.48
San Diego St.MWC2.271.7885.0077.241.590.97
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.281.7658.8260.430.400.37
Nevada Las VegasMWC2.231.7581.8280.801.421.08
Weber St.BSky2.231.7384.2179.921.531.03
GeorgiaSEC2.181.7247.6242.62-0.10-0.25
San Jose St.WAC2.191.6728.5727.91-0.94-0.74
Austin PeayOVC2.131.6434.7837.21-0.65-0.42
George WashingtonA102.131.6436.3633.19-0.58-0.55
DenverSB2.081.6173.9174.811.000.80
Jackson St.SWAC2.081.6120.0026.43-1.25-0.76
McNeese St.Slnd2.081.6143.7544.32-0.26-0.18
MissouriB122.081.6190.9186.751.701.19
Fresno St.WAC0.280.3039.1344.52-0.06-0.03
UC DavisBW0.350.290.005.37-0.35-0.26
UC RiversideBW0.300.2642.8639.66-0.04-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.290.2650.0056.760.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2566.6760.800.080.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.2340.9144.03-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.240.2376.1970.730.130.09
New MexicoMWC0.230.2281.8281.030.150.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.260.2021.0522.46-0.15-0.11
Portland St.BSky0.240.2042.8645.80-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.190.1942.8641.13-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.1865.0066.700.060.06
PacificBW0.210.1835.0037.47-0.06-0.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.200.1775.0076.000.100.09
Montana St.BSky0.190.1745.0041.76-0.02-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.140.1747.3742.16-0.01-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.190.1747.8347.87-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1647.6247.18-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.140.1657.1449.540.02-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1669.5765.870.050.05
TexasB120.190.1660.8761.370.040.04
KansasB120.140.1678.2678.390.080.09
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1571.4373.350.070.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.210.1530.0033.20-0.09-0.05
Utah St.WAC0.140.1550.0052.930.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.200.1433.3333.82-0.07-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1427.7829.87-0.07-0.06
PortlandWCC0.200.1421.7421.70-0.11-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1431.8242.13-0.05-0.02
IdahoWAC0.140.1447.6251.08-0.010.00
Seattleind0.190.1423.5333.28-0.10-0.05
NevadaWAC0.180.1480.9576.420.110.07
Middle TennesseeSB0.180.1483.3384.760.120.09
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1233.3333.88-0.05-0.04
MontanaBSky0.100.1270.0073.280.040.05
Southern MississippiCUSA0.200.1285.7182.180.140.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1113.6416.14-0.10-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1169.5768.900.060.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.150.1143.4843.31-0.02-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.1135.0040.78-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.140.1190.9183.850.120.07
PepperdineWCC0.140.1131.8233.83-0.05-0.04
FloridaSEC0.140.1182.6177.630.090.06
RichmondA100.090.1150.0048.490.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.1152.3846.680.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1145.4540.70-0.01-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.040.1140.9139.56-0.01-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0930.0031.54-0.04-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0955.0054.480.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0928.5726.30-0.07-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0954.1754.750.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.110.0942.8643.45-0.02-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.150.0990.9187.740.120.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0847.0650.75-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0882.6180.420.060.05
Chicago St.GWC0.100.084.769.95-0.09-0.07
GramblingSWAC0.100.0815.0015.73-0.07-0.06
North TexasSB0.090.0850.0050.010.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0837.5038.33-0.03-0.02
HarvardIvy0.090.0890.4887.910.070.06
HawaiiWAC0.140.0857.1453.120.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.088.708.99-0.07-0.07
MassachusettsA100.090.0873.9168.580.040.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.0847.6248.82-0.01-0.00
SyracuseBE0.090.0895.8392.010.080.07
TennesseeSEC0.140.0845.4544.66-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0859.0954.700.020.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0872.7368.280.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0825.0037.58-0.04-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0661.9067.230.010.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.0023.75-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0627.7829.58-0.03-0.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0676.1975.940.000.03
Southern UtahSum0.100.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0618.1821.13-0.07-0.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0657.1460.750.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.0656.5248.810.01-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.110.0666.6769.690.040.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0634.7838.42-0.03-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0659.0950.820.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0640.9142.96-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.280.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0617.6527.10-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0616.6723.02-0.07-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0617.3924.41-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0632.0035.39-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0618.1822.22-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0630.0030.06-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0650.0058.160.000.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0668.1867.640.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.0046.13-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.064.005.26-0.04-0.05
BryantNEC0.090.058.3310.86-0.08-0.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0536.3639.72-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.090.0569.5771.510.040.02
TulsaCUSA0.090.0560.8759.050.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0581.8281.490.060.03
BelmontASun0.040.0569.5773.280.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0538.1042.78-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0550.0050.800.000.00
CharlotteA100.050.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0535.2939.85-0.03-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0547.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0550.0051.730.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0595.8392.570.040.05
La SalleA100.050.0570.8368.820.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0559.0957.760.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0572.7366.810.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0545.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.05100.0094.550.040.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0538.8943.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.8364.420.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0554.5556.840.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0573.9175.490.040.03
St. LouisA100.090.0577.2777.670.050.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.054.359.66-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0556.5253.100.010.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0581.8276.800.030.03
XavierA100.090.0565.2263.740.030.01
DuquesneA100.040.0559.0956.350.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0572.7364.430.040.02
MercerASun0.090.0570.8371.640.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0578.2672.340.020.02
Notre DameBE0.090.0565.2262.650.030.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0573.9168.430.020.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0569.5761.310.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0531.8225.98-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MB120.050.0552.3846.150.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0326.3229.79-0.03-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.000.0333.3337.16-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0379.1780.100.030.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.040.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0352.3852.870.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.039.5211.44-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.040.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.040.0334.7834.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0369.5765.150.000.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0324.0024.86-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.470.020.01
DaytonA100.000.0360.8760.960.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0333.3334.47-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.040.0343.4843.82-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.710.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0380.7780.750.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0362.5062.490.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.00
TempleA100.000.0377.2775.060.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0360.8759.760.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0051.530.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0355.0057.410.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.050.039.5213.19-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.00
OaklandSum0.040.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.290.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0365.2263.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.03-0.02