California

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	54.0
Current RPI:	54
Expected SOS:	37
Current SOS:	37
Current Record:	20-11
Expected Record:	20-11
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	80
Expected OOC SOS:	49

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-11	54.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	78-65	W	100%
11-13	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	79-62	W	100%
11-16	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	61-72	W	100%
11-22	Drake (143.0)	MVC	N	73-70	W	100%
11-23	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	N	68-57	W	100%
11-25	Pacific (97.0)	BW	N	78-58	W	100%
12-2	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	81-56	L	0%
12-9	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	75-76	L	0%
12-15	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	H	64-74	L	0%
12-18	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	68-59	W	100%
12-22	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	85-53	W	100%
12-29	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	62-67	L	0%
1-3	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	79-65	L	0%
1-5	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	64-72	W	100%
1-9	Washington (88.0)	P12	H	47-62	L	0%
1-12	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	67-54	W	100%
1-19	Stanford (77.0)	P12	A	69-59	L	0%
1-24	Utah (161.0)	P12	A	57-62	W	100%
1-27	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	81-71	L	0%
1-31	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	H	71-68	W	100%
2-2	Oregon (48.0)	P12	H	58-54	W	100%
2-7	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	66-62	L	0%
2-10	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	69-77	W	100%
2-14	UCLA (26.0)	P12	H	76-63	W	100%
2-17	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	76-68	W	100%
2-21	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	46-48	W	100%
2-23	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	59-60	W	100%
2-28	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	64-46	W	100%
3-2	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	62-46	W	100%
3-6	Stanford (77.0)	P12	H	70-83	L	0%
3-14	Utah (161.0)	P12	N	69-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
California	P12	26.24	26.24	62.07	62.07	6.33	6.33
Utah	P12	5.58	5.58	42.86	42.86	-0.80	-0.80
Oregon	P12	4.11	4.11	81.25	81.25	2.57	2.57
Stanford	P12	4.02	4.02	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Colorado	P12	4.00	4.00	66.67	66.67	1.33	1.33
Oregon St.	P12	3.98	3.98	46.67	46.67	-0.27	-0.27
UCLA	P12	3.98	3.98	75.00	75.00	1.99	1.99
Southern California	P12	3.92	3.92	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Arizona St.	P12	2.48	2.48	62.50	62.50	0.62	0.62
Arizona	P12	2.46	2.46	80.65	80.65	1.51	1.51
Washington	P12	2.41	2.41	53.12	53.12	0.15	0.15
Washington St.	P12	2.38	2.38	41.94	41.94	-0.38	-0.38
Creighton	MVC	1.74	1.74	78.79	78.79	1.00	1.00
Pacific	BW	1.70	1.70	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.69	1.69	71.88	71.88	0.74	0.74
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.69	1.69	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
Drake	MVC	1.68	1.68	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Denver	WAC	1.66	1.66	72.41	72.41	0.75	0.75
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.66	1.66	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Pepperdine	WCC	1.64	1.64	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.64	1.64	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Wisconsin	B10	1.64	1.64	66.67	66.67	0.55	0.55
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.61	1.61	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Harvard	Ivy	1.61	1.61	65.38	65.38	0.50	0.50
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.28	0.28	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.28	0.28	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.24	0.24	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Long Beach St.	BW	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.21	0.21	81.25	81.25	0.13	0.13
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.20	0.20	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Texas St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	93.75	93.75	0.09	0.09
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01