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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


California

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:53.0
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:45
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1253.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for California.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH82-53W100%0.0
11-16UC Irvine (135.0)BWH75-65W100%0.0
11-21San Diego St. (98.0)MWCN77-65L0%0.0
11-25Wyoming (152.0)MWCH71-61W100%0.0
11-27Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH67-55W100%0.0
11-30Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH68-59W100%0.0
12-3Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH83-59W100%0.0
12-6Princeton (47.0)IvyN62-51W100%0.0
12-7Seton Hall (43.0)BEN57-60L0%0.0
12-10UC Davis (166.0)BWH86-61W100%0.0
12-17Cal Poly (297.0)BWH81-55W100%0.0
12-21Virginia (18.0)ACCH52-56L0%0.0
12-30Arizona (2.0)P12H62-67L0%0.0
1-1Arizona St. (125.0)P12H81-65W100%0.0
1-5UCLA (16.0)P12A81-71L0%0.0
1-8USC (40.0)P12A73-74W100%0.0
1-12Washington (211.0)P12H69-59W100%0.0
1-14Washington St. (159.0)P12H58-54W100%0.0
1-19Oregon (9.0)P12A86-63L0%0.0
1-21Oregon St. (280.0)P12A58-69W100%0.0
1-29Stanford (100.0)P12H66-55W100%0.0
2-2Utah (83.0)P12H77-75W100%0.0
2-5Colorado (99.0)P12H77-66W100%0.0
2-8Arizona St. (125.0)P12A43-68W100%0.0
2-11Arizona (2.0)P12A62-57L0%0.0
2-17Stanford (100.0)P12A73-68L0%0.0
2-22Oregon (9.0)P12H65-68L0%0.0
2-24Oregon St. (280.0)P12H76-46W100%0.0
3-2Utah (83.0)P12A74-44L0%0.0
3-4Colorado (99.0)P12A54-46L0%0.0
3-8Oregon St. (280.0)P12N67-62W100%0.0
3-9Utah (83.0)P12N75-78W100%0.0
3-10Oregon (9.0)P12N73-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

California's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


California's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  California.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CaliforniaP1226.4326.4360.0060.005.295.29
OregonP125.375.3783.3383.333.583.58
Oregon St.P125.275.2714.2914.29-3.76-3.76
UtahP125.265.2665.3865.381.621.62
StanfordP123.913.9142.8642.86-0.56-0.56
ColoradoP123.883.8856.6756.670.520.52
Arizona St.P123.853.8548.3948.39-0.12-0.12
ArizonaP123.843.8487.5087.502.882.88
USCP122.372.3775.0075.001.191.19
UCLAP122.372.3787.5087.501.781.78
WashingtonP122.332.3330.0030.00-0.93-0.93
Washington St.P122.332.3341.3841.38-0.40-0.40
UC IrvineBW1.731.7359.3859.380.320.32
Cal PolyBW1.731.7332.1432.14-0.62-0.62
UC DavisBW1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
San Diego St.MWC1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
South Dakota St.Sum1.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
WyomingMWC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
Louisiana TechCUSA1.571.5770.0070.000.630.63
Seton HallBE1.571.5764.5264.520.450.45
PrincetonIvy1.541.5481.4881.480.970.97
Alcorn St.SWAC1.541.5453.5753.570.110.11
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
Long Beach St.BW0.290.2940.6240.62-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.270.2765.6265.620.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.270.2722.2222.22-0.15-0.15
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
UNLVMWC0.240.2434.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
NevadaMWC0.190.1982.3582.350.130.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1918.5218.52-0.12-0.12
XavierBE0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
ButlerBE0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
MontanaBSky0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1740.7440.74-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
PortlandWCC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
CornellIvy0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.090.09
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0467.8667.860.020.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00