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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:11.0
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:25
Current SOS:25
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:12-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-811.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Albany (107.0)AEH78-65W100%0.0
11-14NJIT (207.0)ASunH87-57W100%0.0
11-17Duke (20.0)ACCN63-74W100%0.0
11-20Wright St. (146.0)HorzH78-63W100%0.0
11-24Boston University (196.0)PatH82-62W100%0.0
11-27South Florida (230.0)AmerN63-84W100%0.0
11-30Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH75-63W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (102.0)P12A87-77L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH88-67W100%0.0
12-12Arizona St. (99.0)P12H72-58W100%0.0
12-19Ohio St. (74.0)B10N74-67L0%0.0
12-26Louisville (17.0)ACCH75-73W100%0.0
1-2Mississippi (96.0)SECH83-61W100%0.0
1-5LSU (94.0)SECA85-67L0%0.0
1-9Alabama (73.0)SECA61-77W100%0.0
1-12Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH80-74W100%0.0
1-16Auburn (175.0)SECA75-70L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas (133.0)SECA66-80W100%0.0
1-23Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH76-57W100%0.0
1-27Missouri (222.0)SECH88-54W100%0.0
1-30Kansas (1.0)B12A90-84L0%0.0
2-2Tennessee (143.0)SECA84-77L0%0.0
2-6Florida (55.0)SECH80-61W100%0.0
2-9Georgia (62.0)SECH82-48W100%0.0
2-13South Carolina (65.0)SECA62-89W100%0.0
2-18Tennessee (143.0)SECH80-70W100%0.0
2-20Texas A&M (18.0)SECA79-77L0%0.0
2-23Alabama (73.0)SECH78-53W100%0.0
2-27Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA74-62L0%0.0
3-1Florida (55.0)SECA79-88W100%0.0
3-5LSU (94.0)SECH94-77W100%0.0
3-11Alabama (73.0)SECN85-59W100%0.0
3-12Georgia (62.0)SECN93-80W100%0.0
3-13Texas A&M (18.0)SECN77-82W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.1826.1880.0080.0015.7115.71
AlabamaSEC4.964.9662.0762.071.201.20
Texas A&MSEC3.653.6578.1278.122.052.05
LSUSEC3.643.6458.0658.060.590.59
TennesseeSEC3.613.6143.7543.75-0.45-0.45
FloridaSEC3.603.6061.2961.290.810.81
VanderbiltSEC3.593.5960.0060.000.720.72
GeorgiaSEC3.563.5663.3363.330.950.95
South CarolinaSEC2.202.2076.6776.671.171.17
AuburnSEC2.192.1933.3333.33-0.73-0.73
MississippiSEC2.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
Mississippi St.SEC2.152.1546.6746.67-0.14-0.14
ArkansasSEC2.152.1551.6151.610.070.07
MissouriSEC2.082.0833.3333.33-0.69-0.69
South FloridaAmer1.571.5725.0025.00-0.78-0.78
Arizona St.P121.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE1.541.5476.6776.670.820.82
Boston UniversityPat1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
NJITASun1.541.5455.1755.170.160.16
KansasB121.541.5487.5087.501.151.15
UCLAP121.541.5445.1645.16-0.15-0.15
DukeACC1.521.5271.8871.880.660.66
LouisvilleACC1.521.5276.6776.670.810.81
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.471.4748.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC1.471.4756.6756.670.200.20
Ohio St.B101.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
Wright St.Horz1.471.4762.5062.500.370.37
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
BaylorB120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
ClemsonACC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Michigan St.B100.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
North FloridaASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
XavierBE0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
DaytonA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
OregonP120.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Notre DameACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Murray St.OVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
USCP120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Miami FLACC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
PurdueB100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
TCUB120.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
StanfordP120.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Texas TechB120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
ArmyPat0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Iowa St.B120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
LafayettePat0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0470.5970.590.020.02
IndianaB100.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.040.0483.3383.330.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0480.0080.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01