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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:20.8
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:12
Current Record:14-5
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-54.00.04%
25-65.40.86%
24-77.34.30%
23-89.812.87%
22-913.620.98%
21-1019.124.75%
20-1126.219.76%
19-1235.211.19%
18-1344.84.20%
17-1454.70.84%
16-1566.20.16%
15-1681.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Utah Valley (84.7)WACH73-63W100%0.0
11-12Vermont (57.0)AEH73-69W100%0.0
11-14Kansas (5.9)B12N65-61L0%0.0
11-17East Tennessee St. (61.7)SCH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Troy (207.6)SBH70-62W100%0.0
11-22Fort Wayne (188.1)SumH86-67W100%0.0
11-26Illinois Chicago (260.6)HorzH107-73W100%0.0
12-2Harvard (180.6)IvyH79-70W100%0.0
12-9Monmouth (175.3)MAACN93-76W100%0.0
12-16Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCH93-86W100%0.0
12-23UCLA (63.0)P12N75-83L0%0.0
12-29Louisville (24.8)ACCH90-61W100%0.0
12-31Georgia (68.2)SECH66-61W100%0.0
1-3LSU (103.4)SECA71-74W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee (23.9)SECA76-65L0%0.0
1-9Texas A&M (29.2)SECH74-73W100%0.0
1-13Vanderbilt (143.7)SECA67-74W100%0.0
1-16South Carolina (71.0)SECA76-68L0%0.0
1-20Florida (25.9)SECH64-66L0%0.0
1-23Mississippi St. (111.1)SECH0-084%11.1
1-27West Virginia (15.9)B12A0-025%-7.6
1-30Vanderbilt (143.7)SECH0-085%11.4
2-3Missouri (44.8)SECA0-047%-0.9
2-6Tennessee (23.9)SECH0-066%4.7
2-10Texas A&M (29.2)SECA0-042%-2.2
2-14Auburn (17.4)SECA0-046%-1.1
2-17Alabama (40.0)SECH0-075%7.5
2-20Arkansas (41.6)SECA0-046%-1.1
2-24Missouri (44.8)SECH0-069%5.5
2-28Mississippi (116.1)SECH0-084%11.2
3-3Florida (25.9)SECA0-037%-3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.3626.1069.3365.7110.198.20
Texas A&MSEC2.853.8372.2266.401.271.26
VanderbiltSEC2.923.8138.8937.47-0.65-0.95
MissouriSEC0.363.8066.6764.710.121.12
FloridaSEC2.773.7872.2270.871.231.58
TennesseeSEC2.843.7870.5969.071.171.44
ArkansasSEC0.292.2868.4264.540.110.66
MississippiSEC0.352.2752.6346.860.02-0.14
GeorgiaSEC2.782.2570.5957.861.140.35
South CarolinaSEC2.852.2558.8250.240.500.01
AlabamaSEC0.362.2568.4260.120.130.45
Mississippi St.SEC0.142.2572.2260.420.060.47
LSUSEC2.842.2464.7154.990.840.22
AuburnSEC0.152.1989.4777.800.121.22
West VirginiaB120.141.7784.2178.270.091.00
KansasB122.631.7283.3379.071.751.00
TroySB2.771.6937.5044.34-0.69-0.19
Virginia TechACC2.701.6972.2259.701.200.33
East Tennessee St.SC2.781.6782.3581.991.801.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.781.6744.4447.61-0.31-0.08
Fort WayneSum2.771.6755.5653.690.310.12
LouisvilleACC2.701.6682.3571.671.750.72
VermontAE2.711.6477.7879.781.510.98
HarvardIvy2.701.6440.0048.35-0.54-0.05
MonmouthMAAC2.631.6129.4142.29-1.08-0.25
UCLAP122.631.6163.1660.730.690.35
Utah ValleyWAC2.631.6170.5968.551.080.60
Iowa St.B120.070.2161.1147.260.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.210.2194.4485.440.190.15
Northern KentuckyHorz0.350.1966.6773.240.120.09
Kansas St.B120.140.1873.6862.720.070.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1868.4254.090.030.01
DetroitHorz0.280.1721.0525.98-0.16-0.08
DukeACC0.140.1689.4785.190.110.11
Georgia TechACC0.210.1652.6343.120.01-0.02
North FloridaASun0.140.1631.5835.15-0.05-0.05
USCP120.140.1671.4368.300.060.06
BaylorB120.070.1661.1156.090.020.02
OklahomaB120.000.1677.7867.900.000.06
TCUB120.070.1673.6865.590.030.05
TexasB120.070.1663.1657.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.1425.0027.94-0.03-0.06
MercerSC0.150.1444.4454.89-0.020.01
UtahP120.070.1361.1158.950.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.1380.0075.050.040.07
StanfordP120.200.1355.0050.370.020.00
ClemsonACC0.220.1384.2173.210.150.06
Texas TechB120.070.1378.9571.810.040.06
Florida St.ACC0.210.1373.6869.610.100.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.300.1256.2556.810.040.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.290.110.009.15-0.29-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1129.4133.22-0.06-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.300.1121.4326.21-0.17-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.1125.0028.02-0.11-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.1172.2272.970.030.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1145.0045.02-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.210.1161.9065.160.050.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.220.1127.7838.13-0.10-0.03
YaleIvy0.140.1141.1847.51-0.03-0.01
WoffordSC0.160.1168.7563.620.060.03
FurmanSC0.150.1166.6768.500.050.04
SamfordSC0.150.1127.7832.66-0.06-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.1180.0078.860.040.06
AlbanyAE0.150.1170.0068.050.060.04
SienaMAAC0.140.1130.0031.69-0.06-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1189.4785.520.110.08
New HampshireAE0.140.1129.4138.15-0.06-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.1168.4257.770.030.02
UCFAmer0.000.1168.4260.880.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.140.1144.4441.15-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.1080.0078.980.040.06
Arizona St.P120.140.1078.9576.130.080.05
Seton HallBE0.220.1075.0067.890.110.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.1072.2274.700.030.05
PittsburghACC0.140.1040.0030.87-0.03-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0944.4450.31-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.140.0973.6872.360.060.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0970.0071.230.030.04
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0930.0032.53-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.0966.6765.360.050.03
PennIvy0.070.0864.7162.780.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0852.9460.270.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0847.0641.45-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0833.3333.360.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0866.6765.530.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0883.3381.350.000.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.0843.7549.10-0.02-0.00
FordhamA100.160.0831.5829.06-0.06-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.160.0847.3748.17-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.230.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0818.7518.40-0.04-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0844.4445.98-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0863.6457.640.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0847.3745.87-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.220.0868.4260.530.080.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.0877.7871.650.080.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0827.7834.50-0.06-0.02
BucknellPat0.140.0861.9068.010.030.03
LipscombASun0.070.0852.9459.360.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0840.0043.340.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.140.0829.4127.74-0.06-0.04
PurdueB100.150.0890.4888.380.120.06
TempleAmer0.150.0852.6351.730.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.0812.5025.47-0.11-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0852.6347.390.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.150.0865.0058.490.040.01
Notre DameACC0.150.0863.1661.050.040.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0850.0055.650.000.01
WashingtonP120.200.0870.0061.440.080.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0841.1843.41-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.085.8819.37-0.12-0.05
Miami FLACC0.000.0876.4769.020.000.03
RadfordBSth0.140.0861.1160.790.030.02
SyracuseACC0.140.0868.4261.270.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.12-0.07-0.06
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.47-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.230.050.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0657.8954.500.000.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.71-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.25-0.01-0.02
HawaiiBW0.150.0668.7563.960.060.02
North DakotaBSky0.150.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0620.0032.260.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0626.6729.040.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0650.0045.900.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.0650.0051.650.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.230.050.03
IndianaB100.140.0657.8950.680.020.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.290.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.260.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.0663.1663.180.040.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.0690.4888.940.130.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0641.1838.46-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.36-0.04-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.84-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.05-0.01-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.640.030.02
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.17-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0638.8935.35-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.240.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.50-0.04-0.03
UABCUSA0.080.0561.1164.130.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0560.0062.030.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0544.4442.740.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0560.0060.340.010.01
ColoradoP120.070.0560.0053.730.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0538.8944.140.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0552.6346.880.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0540.0047.86-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0547.3744.270.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0563.1666.880.020.02
MaineAE0.070.0510.5314.86-0.05-0.04
MichiganB100.140.0575.0070.270.070.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0557.1453.220.010.00
OregonP120.070.0565.0063.830.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0557.8950.810.010.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.0531.5830.00-0.05-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0565.0065.370.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0547.3742.180.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0538.8946.68-0.02-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0526.3231.52-0.03-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0529.4130.67-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0558.8258.360.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0594.7490.310.070.04
WagnerNEC0.000.0564.7164.540.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0552.9452.230.010.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0565.0057.870.020.01
BryantNEC0.150.059.5217.08-0.12-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0547.3750.950.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0557.8959.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0578.9572.990.040.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0521.0521.990.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.057.6923.28-0.06-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0546.6758.78-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0571.4374.650.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0568.4255.060.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.900.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0545.0041.35-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0580.9583.260.040.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.057.6920.09-0.06-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0525.0028.25-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0561.9055.770.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0510.5318.34-0.05-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0521.0539.47-0.04-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0570.5969.610.030.02
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0352.9457.320.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0358.8262.450.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.89-0.05-0.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3337.220.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0330.0036.48-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0327.7831.120.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0350.0053.160.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0326.3230.43-0.04-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.32-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0343.7554.09-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.13-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0316.6724.290.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.690.030.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0370.0068.220.000.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.700.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0311.1117.96-0.06-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.11-0.02-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0310.5316.750.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0326.3228.140.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.340.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.940.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.720.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6763.420.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0344.4446.100.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.92-0.05-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.930.000.01
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.780.020.01
NJITASun0.000.0338.8942.600.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.710.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.410.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.690.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0352.6350.250.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.690.020.01