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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:70
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1156.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Maryland (73.0)ACCN72-69W100%0.0
11-13Duke (1.0)ACCN68-75L0%0.0
11-16Lafayette (153.0)PatH101-49W100%0.0
11-21Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH81-70W100%0.0
11-23Long Island (179.0)NECH104-75W100%0.0
11-29Notre Dame (35.0)BEA64-50L0%0.0
12-1Baylor (71.0)B12H55-64L0%0.0
12-4Samford (291.0)SCH88-56W100%0.0
12-8Portland (231.0)WCCH74-46W100%0.0
12-15Lipscomb (237.0)ASunH88-50W100%0.0
12-22Marshall (208.0)CUSAH82-54W100%0.0
12-29Louisville (3.0)BEA80-77L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACH90-38W100%0.0
1-10Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA58-60W100%0.0
1-12Texas A&M (102.0)SECH71-83L0%0.0
1-15Tennessee (59.0)SECH75-65W100%0.0
1-19Auburn (252.0)SECA53-75W100%0.0
1-22Alabama (60.0)SECA59-55L0%0.0
1-26Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH75-70W100%0.0
1-29Mississippi (47.0)SECA74-87W100%0.0
2-2Texas A&M (102.0)SECA68-72W100%0.0
2-5South Carolina (222.0)SECH77-55W100%0.0
2-9Auburn (252.0)SECH72-62W100%0.0
2-12Florida (7.0)SECA69-52L0%0.0
2-16Tennessee (59.0)SECA88-58L0%0.0
2-20Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH74-70W100%0.0
2-23Missouri (36.0)SECH90-83W100%0.0
2-27Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH85-55W100%0.0
3-2Arkansas (89.0)SECA73-60L0%0.0
3-7Georgia (140.0)SECA72-62L0%0.0
3-9Florida (7.0)SECH61-57W100%0.0
3-15Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA64-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.1126.1165.3265.328.008.00
VanderbiltSEC5.275.2750.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC3.733.7363.3363.330.990.99
AuburnSEC3.723.7230.0030.00-1.49-1.49
FloridaSEC3.703.7080.6580.652.272.27
Texas A&MSEC3.703.7054.8454.840.360.36
MississippiSEC2.362.3678.7978.791.361.36
ArkansasSEC2.302.3058.0658.060.370.37
AlabamaSEC2.262.2661.2961.290.510.51
MissouriSEC2.232.2371.8871.880.980.98
Mississippi St.SEC2.212.2132.2632.26-0.79-0.79
GeorgiaSEC2.212.2145.1645.16-0.21-0.21
Louisiana St.SEC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
South CarolinaSEC2.192.1945.1645.16-0.21-0.21
MarylandACC1.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
LouisvilleBE1.701.7084.8584.851.191.19
LafayettePat1.661.6656.2556.250.210.21
Long IslandNEC1.661.6662.5062.500.410.41
Morehead St.OVC1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
DukeACC1.651.6583.8783.871.121.12
Notre DameBE1.631.6372.7372.730.740.74
MarshallCUSA1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
LipscombASun1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
SamfordSC1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
BaylorB121.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Eastern MichiganMAC1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
PortlandWCC1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
VillanovaBE0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
MarquetteBE0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
College of CharlestonSC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
SyracuseBE0.140.1474.2974.290.070.07
Middle TennesseeSB0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
MercerASun0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1310.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
OaklandSum0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
DavidsonSC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
XavierA100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
CincinnatiBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
St. John'sBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Seton HallBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ElonSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
FurmanSC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
LehighPat0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.0984.3884.380.070.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
South FloridaBE0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.7593.750.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
OhioMAC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
TroySB0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
QuinnipiacNEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
New Orleansind0.020.0218.1818.18-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00