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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:4.3
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:70
Current Record:23-1
Expected Record:29-2
Current Conf Record:9-0
Expected Conf Record:15-1
Probability of Auto Bid:57.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:14-1
Expected OOC Record:14-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:98



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-12.421.47%
29-23.639.90%
28-35.227.58%
27-47.89.49%
26-511.21.44%
25-618.10.10%
24-724.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Marist (276.6)MAACH108-58W100%0.0
11-15Kansas (8.8)B12N75-65W100%0.0
11-19Penn St. (163.2)B10N85-47W100%0.0
11-20Old Dominion (126.1)CAAN62-52W100%0.0
11-23Radford (335.2)BSthH88-40W100%0.0
11-26Portland (215.5)WCCH87-63W100%0.0
12-1St. John's (151.1)BEH81-59W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina (4.6)ACCH73-72W100%0.0
12-10Indiana (20.6)B10A73-72L0%0.0
12-17Chattanooga (285.8)SCH87-62W100%0.0
12-20Samford (254.7)SCH82-50W100%0.0
12-22Loyola MD (83.9)MAACH87-63W100%0.0
12-28Lamar (102.9)SlndH86-64W100%0.0
12-31Louisville (25.3)BEH69-62W100%0.0
1-3Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)SBN73-51W100%0.0
1-7South Carolina (172.1)SECH79-64W100%0.0
1-11Auburn (147.6)SECA53-68W100%0.0
1-14Tennessee (136.4)SECA62-65W100%0.0
1-17Arkansas (65.9)SECH86-63W100%0.0
1-21Alabama (30.4)SECH77-71W100%0.0
1-24Georgia (132.0)SECA44-57W100%0.0
1-28Louisiana St. (85.2)SECA50-74W100%0.0
1-31Tennessee (136.4)SECH69-44W100%0.0
2-4South Carolina (172.1)SECA52-86W100%0.0
2-7Florida (14.9)SECH0-078%8.5
2-11Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA0-072%6.4
2-18Mississippi (70.0)SECH0-096%19.6
2-21Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA0-080%9.1
2-25Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH0-089%13.2
3-1Georgia (132.0)SECH0-098%22.4
3-4Florida (14.9)SECA0-056%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.3026.1097.0093.5424.7222.73
VanderbiltSEC0.423.8469.5769.060.161.46
TennesseeSEC4.353.8450.0047.850.00-0.16
South CarolinaSEC4.303.8345.0042.39-0.43-0.58
FloridaSEC0.383.8182.6180.740.252.34
GeorgiaSEC2.373.8147.6244.07-0.11-0.45
MississippiSEC0.372.1763.6458.540.100.37
ArkansasSEC2.272.1572.7367.321.030.74
Mississippi St.SEC0.282.1578.2674.070.161.03
AlabamaSEC2.322.1471.4371.480.990.92
AuburnSEC2.412.1459.0950.490.440.02
Louisiana St.SEC2.272.1461.9059.250.540.40
ChattanoogaSC2.271.7528.5736.31-0.97-0.48
Penn St.B102.221.7243.4839.96-0.29-0.35
LouisvilleBE2.181.7281.8275.081.390.86
MaristMAAC2.181.7036.3634.62-0.59-0.52
IndianaB102.221.6973.9174.971.060.85
SamfordSC2.131.6735.0036.61-0.64-0.45
Loyola MDMAAC2.131.6780.9576.081.320.87
RadfordBSth2.171.679.0913.57-1.78-1.21
North CarolinaACC2.181.6790.9185.931.781.20
LamarSlnd2.131.6465.0069.630.640.64
St. John'sBE2.131.6445.4541.62-0.19-0.27
Arkansas Little RockSB2.081.6145.4545.83-0.19-0.13
KansasB122.081.6181.8281.001.331.00
Old DominionCAA2.081.6162.5060.230.520.33
PortlandWCC2.081.6122.7322.51-1.14-0.89
Ohio St.B100.320.2486.9685.460.240.17
ElonSC0.240.2050.0047.590.00-0.01
DavidsonSC0.190.2076.1976.760.100.10
South FloridaBE0.270.1854.5548.600.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1850.0058.160.000.03
NC GreensboroSC0.190.1734.7833.46-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.240.1734.7837.24-0.07-0.04
WoffordSC0.240.1759.0957.930.040.03
RiderMAAC0.140.1637.5038.52-0.03-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.168.708.99-0.15-0.13
CincinnatiBE0.140.1669.5765.470.050.05
DukeACC0.190.1686.3683.090.130.10
MarquetteBE0.140.1679.1775.980.080.08
Texas A&MB120.090.1652.3846.150.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.240.1440.0041.30-0.05-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.190.1435.0039.29-0.06-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.240.1458.3359.980.040.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1455.0054.480.010.01
MarylandACC0.190.1459.0950.820.030.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.190.1468.1867.640.070.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1427.7829.58-0.08-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.190.1425.0023.75-0.09-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.190.1339.1342.12-0.04-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.230.1369.5771.510.090.06
Southern CaliforniaP120.190.1325.0025.13-0.09-0.07
Michigan St.B100.130.1376.1972.910.070.06
ConnecticutBE0.190.1368.1863.990.070.04
Notre DameBE0.140.1365.2262.650.040.03
PittsburghBE0.140.1360.8758.160.030.02
DePaulBE0.090.1350.0042.830.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.180.1380.9577.380.110.07
PurdueB100.130.1365.2260.580.040.03
RutgersBE0.090.1350.0046.810.00-0.01
MichiganB100.180.1372.7366.810.080.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1370.8364.420.040.04
SyracuseBE0.050.1395.8392.010.040.11
FurmanSC0.050.1147.6248.83-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.140.1170.8371.640.060.05
The CitadelSC0.140.119.5211.44-0.12-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.190.1117.3919.81-0.12-0.07
IonaMAAC0.090.1179.1780.100.050.07
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1168.0069.070.050.04
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1137.5041.54-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.140.1145.4545.55-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.090.1121.7424.58-0.05-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1134.7838.77-0.04-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.1154.1754.750.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1137.5038.33-0.04-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1154.5554.300.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1140.9143.66-0.03-0.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1134.7834.61-0.04-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1117.3922.00-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticSB0.140.1136.3639.72-0.04-0.02
North TexasSB0.090.1150.0050.010.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.1173.9175.000.040.05
George MasonCAA0.130.1176.0072.500.070.05
Middle TennesseeSB0.000.1183.3384.760.000.07
OaklandSum0.190.1148.0050.21-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.090.1145.8346.68-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.1165.2263.740.010.03
ProvidenceBE0.190.1156.5250.270.020.00
NorthwesternB100.090.1061.9055.140.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.1072.7371.710.040.05
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1071.4373.350.080.05
ArizonaP120.050.1066.6768.550.020.04
IowaB100.090.1054.1749.440.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.130.1075.0073.970.070.05
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0866.6769.690.030.03
OhioMAC0.140.0881.8277.200.090.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0841.1842.61-0.02-0.01
CharlotteA100.140.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.130.0845.0044.15-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.140.0850.0050.800.000.00
Longwoodind0.050.0830.0027.84-0.02-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0852.3857.860.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0852.3852.870.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.140.0834.7834.48-0.04-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.130.0870.8371.050.050.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.140.0813.6416.35-0.10-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.084.359.66-0.09-0.06
ClemsonACC0.090.0850.0048.360.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.090.0815.0015.73-0.06-0.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.140.0854.5556.090.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.0856.5253.100.020.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0847.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.090.0872.7368.280.040.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0865.0060.020.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0845.4540.70-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0865.2263.740.030.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0881.8276.800.030.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.090.0880.0078.060.050.04
BaylorB120.050.0890.9183.850.040.05
HowardMEAC0.130.0818.1822.22-0.08-0.04
LafayettePat0.040.0843.4842.95-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0869.5761.310.030.02
MissouriB120.090.0891.3087.180.070.06
MonmouthNEC0.050.0828.0028.91-0.02-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.0852.3846.680.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.0847.8348.56-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.140.0859.0954.700.020.01
StetsonASun0.040.0831.8231.31-0.02-0.03
TexasB120.090.0860.8761.370.020.02
TowsonCAA0.130.084.005.26-0.12-0.07
West VirginiaBE0.050.0865.2265.170.010.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0812.5013.44-0.07-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0626.3229.79-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.0676.1975.940.050.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.100.0657.1460.750.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0675.0076.000.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0681.8281.490.060.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0659.0957.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0631.8233.83-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0656.5253.770.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0628.5726.30-0.04-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0650.0051.530.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.090.0642.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.068.7011.67-0.08-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0627.7829.87-0.04-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.000.01
DenverSB0.090.0670.8372.230.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0640.9138.38-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0631.8232.75-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0627.2727.21-0.04-0.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0635.0038.58-0.03-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.090.0554.5557.690.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0572.2271.970.040.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0538.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0557.1449.540.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.090.0547.8350.65-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.090.0517.3920.97-0.06-0.03
IUPUISum0.090.0534.7835.50-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.090.0542.8643.45-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0554.1757.200.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0526.0928.60-0.04-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.090.0519.0524.61-0.06-0.03
TroySB0.000.0528.5730.17-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.090.0560.0062.490.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0547.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0533.3335.97-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0547.6248.82-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0575.0074.610.020.03
ColoradoP120.050.0566.6762.650.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0560.8760.960.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0535.2939.85-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0552.3852.860.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0510.0014.93-0.08-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0573.9175.490.020.03
HoustonCUSA0.090.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0530.4326.44-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0581.8280.430.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0550.0051.730.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0545.4544.02-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0572.7364.430.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0556.5254.220.000.00
Iowa St.B120.090.0573.9168.430.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0519.0525.52-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0540.0040.18-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0034.15-0.00-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0539.1336.10-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.000.0569.5764.530.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0563.6463.160.000.01
Texas TechB120.050.0531.8225.98-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0540.9139.82-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0545.4546.08-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0541.6740.61-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0572.2263.190.000.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.00
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.004.02-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityAE0.000.0348.0051.88-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0356.0055.650.010.00
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.000.0333.3337.16-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.08-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
MaineAE0.000.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0322.2227.62-0.00-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0317.6527.10-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0352.1750.090.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.420.030.02
AkronMAC0.000.0368.1867.910.000.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.040.0371.4366.600.020.01
CornellIvy0.040.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0379.1778.100.000.01
DuquesneA100.040.0359.0956.350.010.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0344.4441.71-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.13-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0332.0035.39-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0338.8943.93-0.00-0.00
North DakotaGWC0.050.0333.3341.31-0.02-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0362.5061.500.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0362.5062.490.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.040.0366.6768.050.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.000.0350.0052.930.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0356.5255.200.010.00