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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:19.9
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:40
Current Record:17-6
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-68.41.81%
24-711.311.47%
23-814.927.51%
22-919.632.25%
21-1025.819.34%
20-1137.76.50%
19-1252.11.03%
18-1366.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Albany (89.4)AEH78-65W100%0.0
11-14NJIT (186.8)ASunH87-57W100%0.0
11-17Duke (18.0)ACCN63-74W100%0.0
11-20Wright St. (156.7)HorzH78-63W100%0.0
11-24Boston University (192.6)PatH82-62W100%0.0
11-27South Florida (244.0)AmerN63-84W100%0.0
11-30Illinois St. (128.8)MVCH75-63W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (70.5)P12A87-77L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Kentucky (197.3)OVCH88-67W100%0.0
12-12Arizona St. (79.4)P12H72-58W100%0.0
12-19Ohio St. (96.3)B10N74-67L0%0.0
12-26Louisville (18.1)ACCH75-73W100%0.0
1-2Mississippi (111.1)SECH83-61W100%0.0
1-5LSU (81.9)SECA85-67L0%0.0
1-9Alabama (81.9)SECA61-77W100%0.0
1-12Mississippi St. (177.4)SECH80-74W100%0.0
1-16Auburn (159.9)SECA75-70L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas (89.1)SECA66-80W100%0.0
1-23Vanderbilt (53.5)SECH76-57W100%0.0
1-27Missouri (218.0)SECH88-54W100%0.0
1-30Kansas (5.9)B12A90-84L0%0.0
2-2Tennessee (117.0)SECA84-77L0%0.0
2-6Florida (24.9)SECH80-61W100%0.0
2-9Georgia (78.5)SECH0-085%11.3
2-13South Carolina (47.1)SECA0-057%1.8
2-18Tennessee (117.0)SECH0-088%12.6
2-20Texas A&M (21.8)SECA0-037%-3.7
2-23Alabama (81.9)SECH0-089%13.3
2-27Vanderbilt (53.5)SECA0-039%-2.9
3-1Florida (24.9)SECA0-042%-2.1
3-5LSU (81.9)SECH0-082%10.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.0726.0875.9073.5913.5112.31
VanderbiltSEC2.563.8359.0962.060.470.92
FloridaSEC2.513.8168.1868.630.911.42
LSUSEC2.513.8163.6460.340.680.79
TennesseeSEC2.463.7845.4546.24-0.22-0.28
AlabamaSEC2.513.7861.9056.440.600.49
South CarolinaSEC0.432.2786.3680.370.311.38
AuburnSEC2.512.2738.1034.41-0.60-0.71
Texas A&MSEC0.432.2778.2678.540.241.30
ArkansasSEC2.462.2454.5557.810.220.35
MississippiSEC2.512.2268.1860.990.910.49
Mississippi St.SEC2.512.2242.8642.05-0.36-0.35
GeorgiaSEC0.382.2261.9058.180.090.36
MissouriSEC2.422.1936.3631.39-0.66-0.82
South FloridaAmer2.311.7220.8320.32-1.35-1.02
AlbanyAE2.311.6979.1778.931.350.98
Boston UniversityPat2.311.6956.5257.490.300.25
NJITASun2.311.6956.5257.210.300.24
UCLAP122.271.6954.5551.680.210.06
Arizona St.P122.221.6956.5253.370.290.11
KansasB122.271.6980.9576.831.400.91
DukeACC2.221.6678.2674.091.250.80
LouisvilleACC2.221.6682.6178.611.450.95
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.171.6154.1751.980.180.06
Illinois St.MVC2.171.6156.5252.700.280.09
Ohio St.B102.171.6156.5252.590.280.08
Wright St.Horz2.171.6159.0959.030.400.29
Wake ForestACC0.280.2343.4840.57-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.2121.7423.39-0.16-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.320.2150.0049.090.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.190.1852.1751.630.010.01
ClemsonACC0.140.1658.3358.410.020.03
North FloridaASun0.190.1665.2267.160.060.05
BaylorB120.100.1672.7366.460.040.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1660.8758.370.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1683.3383.030.090.10
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1645.4547.56-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.190.1391.3084.340.160.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1347.6252.07-0.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1350.0049.850.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.140.1381.8282.630.090.09
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1345.8342.26-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.190.1345.8339.31-0.02-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1366.6762.630.050.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1382.6179.560.090.08
DaytonA100.140.1386.3682.380.100.09
OregonP120.140.1382.6179.220.090.08
TexasB120.100.1366.6762.220.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.1369.5764.850.060.04
MemphisAmer0.140.1360.8760.780.030.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1381.8276.750.090.07
ArizonaP120.140.1379.1778.350.080.07
PurdueB100.140.1379.1776.510.080.07
Murray St.OVC0.140.1145.4549.70-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.130.1134.7835.64-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.140.1147.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.140.1139.1338.33-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.1125.0024.35-0.05-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1172.7376.360.040.06
St. John'sBE0.090.1125.0023.34-0.05-0.06
Texas TechB120.150.1159.0953.170.030.01
AmericanPat0.090.1130.4331.91-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.090.1154.1754.570.010.01
NavyPat0.140.1162.5062.390.030.03
OklahomaB120.100.1186.9682.610.070.07
VermontAE0.130.1152.0054.870.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.1170.8367.730.040.04
Oregon St.P120.140.1061.9056.420.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.1078.2676.800.050.06
HoustonAmer0.130.1069.5766.530.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.1082.6178.660.060.06
StanfordP120.090.1050.0046.620.00-0.01
USCP120.140.1078.2673.050.080.05
VirginiaACC0.090.1082.6178.070.060.06
WashingtonP120.190.1065.2261.090.060.02
Washington St.P120.190.1036.3631.98-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0868.0067.980.020.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.085.007.23-0.08-0.07
LipscombASun0.090.0825.0029.27-0.05-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0822.7323.24-0.02-0.04
LafayettePat0.140.0821.7422.99-0.08-0.04
UMBCAE0.130.0824.0026.33-0.07-0.04
WinthropBSth0.050.0865.0063.440.010.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.0837.5043.36-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.130.0873.6874.680.060.04
BinghamtonAE0.130.0820.8324.10-0.08-0.04
ColgatePat0.090.0843.4844.80-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.140.0835.0038.49-0.04-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0834.7837.17-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.140.0839.1337.73-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0850.0052.350.000.00
New HampshireAE0.090.0857.1453.980.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0843.4850.66-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.0863.1658.810.040.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0873.9169.840.040.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0866.6766.540.030.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.5012.85-0.07-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0875.0076.230.050.04
HartfordAE0.090.0825.0026.76-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0873.9170.050.020.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0857.8961.750.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0868.1866.690.030.03
UABCUSA0.140.0882.6179.410.090.05
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0837.5040.54-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0869.5765.360.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0859.0959.350.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0822.7327.19-0.05-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0840.0039.00-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0850.0051.180.000.00
MarylandB100.140.0887.5083.700.100.05
MercerSC0.140.0869.5769.090.060.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.0817.6526.67-0.09-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0839.1341.12-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0882.6178.890.060.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0838.1037.70-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.140.0833.3332.31-0.05-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0865.2262.840.010.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0878.2674.430.050.04
IllinoisB100.140.0845.8344.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0862.5056.200.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0817.6529.21-0.06-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0854.1751.850.000.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0866.6763.440.030.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0876.1968.210.020.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0866.6762.580.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0865.2266.170.010.03
UtahP120.050.0869.5767.490.020.03
WoffordSC0.090.0843.4846.23-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.73-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0654.5556.000.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0659.0959.640.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.08-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.69-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.040.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.36-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0528.5728.54-0.04-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0523.8126.57-0.05-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0534.7834.14-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0557.8956.080.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0554.5558.170.000.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0521.7423.66-0.05-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0552.1751.960.000.00
LehighPat0.090.0536.3639.78-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0543.4842.62-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0533.3333.12-0.01-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0528.5726.96-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.1755.070.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0536.3636.08-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0572.7372.060.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0572.0070.510.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0531.5831.99-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0547.8350.14-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0550.0049.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0540.9139.35-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0564.0064.140.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0552.1754.150.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0513.6415.79-0.07-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.100.0561.9065.300.020.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0565.2261.430.000.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0528.5732.70-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0545.4546.27-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0530.4326.54-0.04-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0569.5767.170.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0530.0034.56-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0570.8370.840.040.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0563.6460.930.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0573.9172.490.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0543.4842.00-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0579.1774.020.050.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0545.4551.34-0.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0571.4368.720.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0529.1733.14-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0554.5554.490.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0521.7420.35-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.090.0590.9186.160.070.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0533.3334.19-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.040.0563.6459.840.010.01
TroySB0.090.0523.8126.67-0.05-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0552.3845.690.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.090.0550.0055.190.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0554.1749.230.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3335.47-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0352.3847.040.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0386.9686.690.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
High PointBSth0.000.0355.0057.480.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.460.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.47-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0328.0030.74-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0363.6459.220.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.27-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.100.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
CornellIvy0.040.0342.1140.18-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0334.7834.54-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0313.6418.14-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.700.030.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0365.2264.210.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0322.7324.96-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0322.7324.79-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.300.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0324.0024.50-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.17-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.64-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.020.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0376.1973.410.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5731.26-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.69-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.39-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.870.010.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.800.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0321.7423.33-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.40-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.770.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.08-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
IowaB100.000.0382.6180.590.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0369.5766.240.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.720.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.70-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0315.0026.98-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0376.1972.290.000.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.78-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.910.020.01
VMISC0.050.0315.0016.70-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.840.010.00