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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:15.3
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:21
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.01%
29-21.00.05%
28-31.30.41%
27-41.81.52%
26-52.63.97%
25-64.39.14%
24-76.614.17%
23-89.618.18%
22-914.016.91%
21-1019.114.84%
20-1125.610.21%
19-1233.75.73%
18-1341.23.12%
17-1450.71.02%
16-1563.80.54%
15-1680.90.14%
14-1791.00.02%
13-1891.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Utah Valley (141.8)WACH73-63W100%0.0
11-12Vermont (75.8)AEH73-69W100%0.0
11-14Kansas (4.9)B12N65-61L0%0.0
11-17East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Troy (191.8)SBH0-096%21.7
11-22Fort Wayne (168.7)SumH0-095%20.1
11-26Illinois Chicago (229.5)HorzH0-097%22.5
12-2Harvard (130.4)IvyH0-092%17.2
12-9Monmouth (75.4)MAACN0-088%13.8
12-16Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCH0-072%7.0
12-23UCLA (46.1)P12N0-069%5.9
12-29Louisville (28.0)ACCH0-067%5.3
12-31Georgia (93.5)SECH0-083%11.5
1-3LSU (132.9)SECA0-078%9.1
1-6Tennessee (96.3)SECA0-069%5.9
1-9Texas A&M (19.6)SECH0-062%3.8
1-13Vanderbilt (89.2)SECA0-068%5.5
1-16South Carolina (64.8)SECA0-061%3.4
1-20Florida (14.6)SECH0-051%0.3
1-23Mississippi St. (134.2)SECH0-089%14.5
1-27West Virginia (33.4)B12A0-034%-5.0
1-30Vanderbilt (89.2)SECH0-083%11.5
2-3Missouri (59.7)SECA0-061%3.4
2-6Tennessee (96.3)SECH0-084%11.9
2-10Texas A&M (19.6)SECA0-043%-2.2
2-14Auburn (91.7)SECA0-071%6.6
2-17Alabama (33.7)SECH0-073%7.4
2-20Arkansas (31.4)SECA0-048%-0.7
2-24Missouri (59.7)SECH0-078%9.4
2-28Mississippi (78.4)SECH0-084%12.1
3-3Florida (14.6)SECA0-032%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC32.8126.1464.2969.409.3710.14
Texas A&MSEC0.003.86100.0072.680.001.75
VanderbiltSEC0.003.8466.6751.800.000.14
FloridaSEC0.003.80100.0081.830.002.42
TennesseeSEC0.003.80100.0050.240.000.02
MissouriSEC0.003.8066.6760.010.000.76
MississippiSEC0.002.31100.0055.110.000.24
ArkansasSEC0.002.31100.0071.850.001.01
South CarolinaSEC0.002.2875.0059.650.000.44
GeorgiaSEC0.002.28100.0054.590.000.21
AlabamaSEC0.002.28100.0062.470.000.57
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.28100.0052.450.000.11
LSUSEC0.002.27100.0046.950.00-0.14
AuburnSEC0.002.2266.6751.410.000.06
KansasB1212.501.72100.0082.3412.501.11
West VirginiaB120.001.7266.6771.370.000.73
TroySB0.001.7033.3347.940.00-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.001.6975.0063.080.000.44
East Tennessee St.SC12.501.6750.0059.900.000.33
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.6750.0050.040.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.001.6766.6758.390.000.28
LouisvilleACC0.001.66100.0068.120.000.60
VermontAE12.501.64100.0076.7712.500.88
HarvardIvy0.001.6433.3356.060.000.20
MonmouthMAAC0.001.6166.6761.370.000.37
UCLAP120.001.61100.0066.070.000.52
Utah ValleyWAC12.501.6166.6762.754.170.41
Iowa St.B120.000.2250.0038.730.00-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.21100.0074.140.000.10
Kansas St.B120.000.19100.0062.930.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.19100.0059.540.000.04
North FloridaASun0.000.170.0036.690.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.170.0029.290.00-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.000.170.0057.520.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz2.080.16100.0070.962.080.07
BaylorB120.000.16100.0061.110.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.16100.0060.070.000.03
TCUB120.000.16100.0061.150.000.04
USCP120.000.16100.0073.190.000.07
TexasB120.000.16100.0063.830.000.04
Green BayHorz0.000.140.0044.830.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1475.0076.250.000.07
UtahP120.000.14100.0067.160.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.14100.0054.960.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.14100.0062.630.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1475.0049.860.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.13100.0068.200.000.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0033.700.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1225.0054.930.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum2.080.1166.6761.500.690.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.110.0021.590.00-0.07
WoffordSC0.000.110.0039.740.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.110.0042.670.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.110.0035.760.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1150.0035.330.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.11100.0069.350.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.1150.0059.440.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1166.6765.630.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3347.970.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB2.080.1133.3347.67-0.69-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.110.0048.110.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.11100.0078.160.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1125.0035.000.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0082.350.000.07
AlbanyAE0.000.11100.0072.510.000.05
DukeACC1.560.11100.0083.581.560.07
SienaMAAC0.000.110.0037.060.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1166.6768.320.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.11100.0083.700.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.11100.0062.760.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1133.3334.560.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0023.260.00-0.05
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3334.680.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3353.520.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0933.3349.350.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.090.0051.010.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0966.6767.630.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.09100.0039.920.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.090.0035.130.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0950.0042.160.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0933.3336.170.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.09100.0075.130.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.090.0047.180.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0950.0051.070.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.08100.0071.700.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.08100.0055.280.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0833.3349.220.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.080.0016.000.00-0.06
PurdueB100.000.08100.0085.360.000.06
UCFAmer0.000.08100.0061.780.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.08100.0056.600.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.08100.0064.470.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.08100.0057.270.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0037.120.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.080.0061.460.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.080.0043.690.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0065.140.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0833.3352.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0850.0059.190.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0833.3330.460.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.080.0029.880.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC2.080.080.0025.14-2.08-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0850.0050.670.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.080.0064.600.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.080.0038.960.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0850.0046.150.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0074.500.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.08100.0062.240.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
DenverSum0.000.060.0038.100.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.06100.0038.710.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0633.3347.540.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0666.6749.940.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0633.3341.220.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0038.990.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0029.630.00-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0031.810.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0633.3345.780.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0042.730.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0052.900.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0027.250.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.050.0030.230.00-0.02
BradleyMVC2.080.0575.0048.771.04-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.050.0037.050.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.050.0023.830.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0525.0032.490.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.050.0034.600.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.05100.0078.750.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.05100.0071.560.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0575.0071.560.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.05100.0061.010.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0566.6740.170.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3346.330.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.05100.0056.360.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0566.6762.150.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0566.6754.900.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0525.0059.770.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0550.0051.840.000.00
OregonP120.000.05100.0076.200.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0566.6742.260.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.050.0031.910.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0033.850.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0566.6755.210.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0533.3348.640.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0533.3350.220.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.05100.0052.860.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0575.0048.930.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.05100.0067.950.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0575.0045.290.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0073.730.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0048.790.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky1.560.030.0028.17-1.56-0.01
UC DavisBW1.560.0366.6757.400.520.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.910.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.360.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC2.080.030.0046.41-2.08-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01