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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:17.0
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:3
Current Record:24-10
Expected Record:24-10
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1017.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH89-57W100%0.0
11-10Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH93-63W100%0.0
11-12Michigan St. (18.0)B10N78-74L0%0.0
11-17Robert Morris (129.0)NECH87-49W100%0.0
11-19UT Arlington (199.0)SBH105-76W100%0.0
11-25Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH68-61W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH81-63W100%0.0
12-1Providence (40.0)BEN65-79W100%0.0
12-6Baylor (30.0)B12N67-62L0%0.0
12-10Boise St. (82.0)MWCH70-55W100%0.0
12-14North Carolina (25.0)ACCA82-77L0%0.0
12-21Belmont (57.0)OVCH93-80W100%0.0
12-28Louisville (19.0)AmerH73-66W100%0.0
1-8Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH85-63W100%0.0
1-11Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA62-71W100%0.0
1-14Arkansas (77.0)SECA87-85L0%0.0
1-18Tennessee (42.0)SECH74-66W100%0.0
1-21Texas A&M (148.0)SECH68-51W100%0.0
1-25Georgia (74.0)SECH79-54W100%0.0
1-28LSU (83.0)SECA87-82L0%0.0
2-1Missouri (49.0)SECA79-84W100%0.0
2-4Mississippi (94.0)SECH80-64W100%0.0
2-8Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA59-69W100%0.0
2-12Auburn (169.0)SECA56-64W100%0.0
2-15Florida (1.0)SECH59-69L0%0.0
2-18Mississippi (94.0)SECA70-84W100%0.0
2-22LSU (83.0)SECH77-76W100%0.0
2-27Arkansas (77.0)SECH67-71L0%0.0
3-1South Carolina (140.0)SECA72-67L0%0.0
3-4Alabama (124.0)SECH55-48W100%0.0
3-8Florida (1.0)SECA84-65L0%0.0
3-14LSU (83.0)SECN85-67W100%0.0
3-15Georgia (74.0)SECN70-58W100%0.0
3-16Florida (1.0)SECN61-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.2226.2269.0169.019.979.97
LSUSEC4.984.9862.0762.071.201.20
FloridaSEC4.964.9693.5593.554.324.32
GeorgiaSEC3.623.6263.3363.330.970.97
Mississippi St.SEC3.583.5845.1645.16-0.35-0.35
MississippiSEC3.583.5861.2961.290.810.81
ArkansasSEC3.553.5563.3363.330.950.95
South CarolinaSEC2.272.2739.3939.39-0.48-0.48
AlabamaSEC2.222.2240.0040.00-0.44-0.44
MissouriSEC2.182.1868.7568.750.820.82
VanderbiltSEC2.172.1750.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC2.172.1764.5264.520.630.63
Texas A&MSEC2.132.1354.8454.840.210.21
AuburnSEC2.122.1248.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC1.571.5763.6463.640.430.43
UT ArlingtonSB1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
North CarolinaACC1.561.5670.9770.970.650.65
Eastern MichiganMAC1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
Cleveland St.Horz1.541.5465.5265.520.480.48
Boise St.MWC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
ProvidenceBE1.491.4969.7069.700.590.59
BelmontOVC1.491.4974.1974.190.720.72
LouisvilleAmer1.491.4987.8887.881.131.13
Michigan St.B101.491.4975.7675.760.770.77
Northern KentuckyASun1.491.4931.0331.03-0.57-0.57
BaylorB121.491.4965.6265.620.470.47
UNC AshevilleBSth1.471.4750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1934.6234.62-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1830.7730.77-0.07-0.07
MemphisAmer0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
LipscombASun0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
OklahomaB120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
TexasB120.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
North FloridaASun0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
USC UpstateASun0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
ToledoMAC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
MassachusettsA100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
High PointBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0430.3030.30-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0417.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
BryantNEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0481.8281.820.030.03
DePaulBE0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0416.1316.13-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
UCFAmer0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
WagnerNEC0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IdahoWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00