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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:1.6
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:6
Current Record:11-0
Expected Record:29-2
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:4



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-01.116.13%
30-11.233.68%
29-21.629.15%
28-32.414.97%
27-43.64.76%
26-55.51.11%
25-68.30.17%
24-711.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Grand Canyon (288.2)WACH85-45W100%0.0
11-16Buffalo (46.6)MACH71-52W100%0.0
11-18Kansas (7.5)B12N40-72W100%0.0
11-21Boston University (203.6)PatH89-65W100%0.0
11-23Montana St. (290.7)BSkyH86-28W100%0.0
11-25UT Arlington (142.0)SBH92-44W100%0.0
11-30Providence (80.8)BEH58-38W100%0.0
12-5Texas (5.2)B12H63-51W100%0.0
12-7Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCH82-49W100%0.0
12-10Columbia (100.8)IvyH56-46W100%0.0
12-13North Carolina (11.6)ACCH84-70W100%0.0
12-20UCLA (69.3)P12N0-095%19.7
12-27Louisville (7.1)ACCA0-057%1.9
1-6Mississippi (98.8)SECH0-099%27.3
1-10Texas A&M (58.1)SECA0-088%14.0
1-13Missouri (178.6)SECH0-0100%33.3
1-17Alabama (83.6)SECA0-092%16.5
1-20Vanderbilt (89.5)SECH0-098%24.3
1-24South Carolina (43.8)SECA0-081%10.3
1-29Missouri (178.6)SECA0-098%24.6
1-31Alabama (83.6)SECH0-098%25.2
2-3Georgia (54.3)SECH0-097%22.1
2-7Florida (39.0)SECA0-079%9.4
2-10LSU (67.0)SECA0-091%15.8
2-14South Carolina (43.8)SECH0-095%19.0
2-17Tennessee (131.3)SECA0-096%20.0
2-21Auburn (184.8)SECH0-0100%32.2
2-25Mississippi St. (214.6)SECA0-098%23.8
2-28Arkansas (42.2)SECH0-096%20.9
3-3Georgia (54.3)SECA0-087%13.4
3-7Florida (39.0)SECH0-094%18.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC27.7726.11100.0095.5727.7723.79
AlabamaSEC0.003.8266.6758.220.000.63
FloridaSEC0.483.8160.0068.460.101.41
South CarolinaSEC0.003.8162.5068.120.001.38
GeorgiaSEC0.003.7962.5063.200.001.00
MissouriSEC0.003.7644.4433.77-0.00-1.22
AuburnSEC0.002.2844.4437.60-0.00-0.57
VanderbiltSEC0.002.2875.0062.420.000.57
Texas A&MSEC0.002.2877.7867.240.000.79
ArkansasSEC0.002.2677.7874.240.001.09
TennesseeSEC0.252.2550.0047.590.00-0.11
MississippiSEC0.002.2570.0054.330.000.20
LSUSEC0.002.2380.0065.950.000.71
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.2350.0040.630.00-0.42
KansasB124.551.74100.0071.704.550.76
North CarolinaACC4.551.7477.7874.022.530.84
UT ArlingtonSB5.521.7262.5056.911.380.24
UCLAP120.481.7272.7359.030.220.31
Grand CanyonWAC5.331.7040.0046.12-1.07-0.13
Montana St.BSky5.001.6925.0029.71-2.50-0.69
TexasB124.801.69100.0084.584.801.17
BuffaloMAC5.001.6785.7171.503.570.72
LouisvilleACC0.001.66100.0086.720.001.22
Boston UniversityPat4.551.6137.5043.76-1.14-0.20
ColumbiaIvy4.551.6171.4367.261.950.56
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.551.6150.0057.780.000.25
ProvidenceBE4.551.6180.0055.042.730.16
Iowa St.B120.000.2488.8963.800.000.07
BaylorB120.000.2190.0073.870.000.10
Oklahoma St.B120.000.2188.8963.660.000.06
Kansas St.B120.000.2160.0037.220.00-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1966.6745.670.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1980.0070.960.000.08
Miami FLACC0.000.1990.0075.520.000.09
OklahomaB120.000.1877.7867.290.000.06
YaleIvy0.210.1672.7367.180.090.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1677.7851.350.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.210.1650.0037.510.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.16100.0066.180.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.1688.8955.910.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.1455.5648.240.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1450.0049.620.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.490.1433.3354.74-0.160.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1444.4447.53-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.1433.3339.46-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1366.6758.240.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.250.1366.6759.460.080.02
UABCUSA0.000.1330.0037.28-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1350.0038.000.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1390.0066.940.000.04
HarvardIvy0.250.1285.7172.940.180.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0016.85-0.00-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.1150.0056.340.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.1133.3340.31-0.08-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.250.1128.5742.17-0.11-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1160.0056.560.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1137.5034.19-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1144.4456.91-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1122.2241.92-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.230.1150.0057.510.000.02
DaytonA100.000.1177.7870.120.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1133.3345.28-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.1137.5042.45-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1120.0041.46-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1160.0053.820.000.01
LipscombASun0.230.1125.0042.64-0.11-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1177.7855.460.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1190.0067.260.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1111.1144.62-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.230.1080.0072.550.140.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1081.8264.110.000.03
AmericanPat0.280.0960.0065.400.060.03
BucknellPat0.280.0940.0036.29-0.06-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0043.08-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.280.0937.5047.71-0.07-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.280.0933.3327.70-0.09-0.04
PennIvy0.000.0937.5033.00-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.210.0940.0033.79-0.04-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5638.600.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0850.0052.710.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.320.0880.0069.620.190.03
LafayettePat0.000.0875.0069.820.000.03
NavyPat0.210.0820.0021.58-0.12-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.210.0814.2933.32-0.15-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0833.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0842.8652.71-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.320.0818.1828.02-0.21-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.460.080.0011.87-0.46-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.92-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.230.0850.0050.330.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.210.0885.7170.350.150.03
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.730.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0080.590.000.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.0890.0090.940.000.07
Kent St.MAC0.000.0871.4361.370.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0877.7864.730.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0842.8627.08-0.00-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0857.1470.590.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0810.0018.58-0.00-0.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.870.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.210.0866.6742.100.07-0.01
CaliforniaP120.230.0890.0066.690.180.03
CreightonBE0.000.0872.7351.560.000.00
DukeACC0.000.08100.0087.140.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0840.0050.07-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.210.0890.9171.890.170.03
OregonP120.000.0866.6758.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0866.6752.340.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0875.0057.570.000.01
UtahP120.250.0877.7879.480.140.05
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0085.310.000.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1456.750.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.16-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.85-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.320.0616.6727.56-0.22-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.130.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.320.0671.4363.890.140.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.99-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0610.0030.45-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.40-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6777.030.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.290.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5049.83-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.09-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.77-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5757.26-0.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5046.50-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.19-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.250.0677.7873.370.140.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0570.0058.600.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.0520.0028.20-0.15-0.02
IndianaB100.210.0580.0057.630.120.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.480.0555.5656.400.050.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0540.0050.78-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0542.8643.10-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0575.0067.580.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5047.87-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7365.930.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0530.0028.50-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0542.8638.11-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0544.4445.59-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0560.0033.870.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0544.4444.78-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0566.6751.430.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.980.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0587.5085.320.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0044.900.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0525.0049.09-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0533.3334.28-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.050.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.510.0530.0039.44-0.20-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0074.000.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.110.00-0.02
IowaB100.450.0572.7362.590.210.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0560.0055.630.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0590.0084.680.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.460.0562.5073.190.110.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0587.5065.040.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6757.800.000.01
USCP120.000.0560.0036.120.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0082.080.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.130.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0555.5649.500.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.320.0366.6767.300.110.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.0328.5741.17-0.12-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
IUPUISum0.320.0320.0026.33-0.19-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.44-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
WagnerNEC0.280.0314.2933.54-0.20-0.01
New HampshireAE0.250.0357.1464.620.040.01
NortheasternCAA0.250.0366.6757.860.080.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.0344.4449.65-0.03-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.0336.3647.13-0.07-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.250.0355.5654.360.030.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.0320.0034.08-0.12-0.01
BradleyMVC0.250.0333.3332.09-0.08-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.030.0012.36-0.21-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.0320.0039.70-0.15-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.0318.1821.30-0.13-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.210.0375.0074.340.100.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0366.6748.410.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8642.32-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.250.0327.2738.97-0.11-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.250.0337.5046.78-0.06-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.280.0355.5661.390.030.01
DrexelCAA0.280.0325.0037.13-0.14-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.960.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.01-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.46-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2930.74-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.880.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.0362.5054.970.070.00
St. BonaventureA100.280.0375.0065.410.140.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.800.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0355.5650.970.000.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4544.07-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0333.3362.92-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.210.0333.3348.89-0.07-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.030.0028.26-0.23-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.98-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.230.0387.5077.020.170.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.230.0337.5038.60-0.06-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.40-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
Michigan St.B100.250.0372.7373.150.110.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.0344.4470.08-0.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.250.0350.0052.800.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.330.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0033.84-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.230.0350.0062.270.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.250.0337.5064.43-0.060.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.0322.2237.75-0.13-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01