live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:1.0
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:25
Current SOS:25
Current Record:34-0
Expected Record:34-0
Current Conf Record:21-0
Expected Conf Record:21-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:13



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
34-01.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH85-45W100%0.0
11-16Buffalo (28.0)MACH71-52W100%0.0
11-18Kansas (2.0)B12N40-72W100%0.0
11-21Boston University (198.0)PatH89-65W100%0.0
11-23Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH86-28W100%0.0
11-25UT Arlington (184.0)SBH92-44W100%0.0
11-30Providence (22.0)BEH58-38W100%0.0
12-5Texas (42.0)B12H63-51W100%0.0
12-7Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH82-49W100%0.0
12-10Columbia (196.0)IvyH56-46W100%0.0
12-13North Carolina (11.0)ACCH84-70W100%0.0
12-20UCLA (48.0)P12N83-44W100%0.0
12-27Louisville (21.0)ACCA50-58W100%0.0
1-6Mississippi (60.0)SECH89-86W100%0.0
1-10Texas A&M (67.0)SECA64-70W100%0.0
1-13Missouri (218.0)SECH86-37W100%0.0
1-17Alabama (85.0)SECA48-70W100%0.0
1-20Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH65-57W100%0.0
1-24South Carolina (91.0)SECA43-58W100%0.0
1-29Missouri (218.0)SECA53-69W100%0.0
1-31Alabama (85.0)SECH70-55W100%0.0
2-3Georgia (38.0)SECH69-58W100%0.0
2-7Florida (72.0)SECA61-68W100%0.0
2-10LSU (57.0)SECA69-71W100%0.0
2-14South Carolina (91.0)SECH77-43W100%0.0
2-17Tennessee (96.0)SECA48-66W100%0.0
2-21Auburn (129.0)SECH110-75W100%0.0
2-25Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA56-74W100%0.0
2-28Arkansas (19.0)SECH84-67W100%0.0
3-3Georgia (38.0)SECA64-72W100%0.0
3-7Florida (72.0)SECH67-50W100%0.0
3-13Florida (72.0)SECN64-49W100%0.0
3-14Auburn (129.0)SECN91-67W100%0.0
3-15Arkansas (19.0)SECN78-63W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.2026.20100.00100.0026.2026.20
FloridaSEC5.015.0153.3353.330.330.33
South CarolinaSEC3.653.6553.3353.330.240.24
AuburnSEC3.643.6443.7543.75-0.45-0.45
ArkansasSEC3.613.6181.2581.252.262.26
GeorgiaSEC3.603.6070.0070.001.441.44
AlabamaSEC3.603.6058.6258.620.620.62
MissouriSEC3.553.5527.5927.59-1.59-1.59
Texas A&MSEC2.202.2066.6766.670.730.73
MississippiSEC2.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
TennesseeSEC2.182.1851.6151.610.070.07
VanderbiltSEC2.162.1660.0060.000.430.43
LSUSEC2.152.1570.9770.970.900.90
Mississippi St.SEC2.132.1340.0040.00-0.43-0.43
North CarolinaACC1.631.6370.5970.590.670.67
KansasB121.601.6078.7978.790.920.92
UT ArlingtonSB1.571.5751.7251.720.050.05
UCLAP121.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
Grand CanyonWAC1.541.5453.5753.570.110.11
Montana St.BSky1.541.5421.4321.43-0.88-0.88
TexasB121.541.5462.5062.500.380.38
LouisvilleACC1.531.5377.4277.420.840.84
BuffaloMAC1.521.5274.1974.190.740.74
Boston UniversityPat1.471.4742.8642.86-0.21-0.21
ColumbiaIvy1.471.4746.1546.15-0.11-0.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.471.4762.9662.960.380.38
ProvidenceBE1.471.4768.7568.750.550.55
Iowa St.B120.270.2775.7675.760.140.14
BaylorB120.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
ClemsonACC0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
XavierBE0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
Miami FLACC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
OklahomaB120.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
CornellIvy0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
MercerSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
ArizonaP120.090.0991.1891.180.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0990.6290.620.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
BucknellPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
DukeACC0.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
IowaB100.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0462.9662.960.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0452.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.040.0481.2581.250.030.03
TulsaAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
WinthropBSth0.040.0455.1755.170.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0218.7518.75-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01