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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:7.3
Current RPI:31
Expected SOS:22
Current SOS:160
Current Record:7-0
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-0
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:13
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-01.20.51%
30-11.53.74%
29-22.310.54%
28-33.619.42%
27-45.722.36%
26-58.419.58%
25-611.613.53%
24-715.56.70%
23-819.62.68%
22-925.90.70%
21-1031.00.16%
20-1140.60.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndH87-64W100%0.0
11-13Canisius (211.7)MAACH93-69W100%0.0
11-15Michigan St. (41.5)B10N48-69W100%0.0
11-20Duquesne (255.5)A10H93-59W100%0.0
11-23Cleveland St. (257.4)HorzH101-70W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH111-76W100%0.0
11-28Arizona St. (165.8)P12N69-115W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (19.0)P12H0-074%7.7
12-7Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-095%20.3
12-11Hofstra (237.3)CAAN0-099%28.2
12-17North Carolina (5.9)ACCN0-050%0.1
12-21Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-046%-1.2
12-29Mississippi (134.5)SECA0-092%16.6
1-3Texas A&M (42.0)SECH0-085%12.3
1-7Arkansas (54.3)SECH0-091%15.8
1-10Vanderbilt (72.4)SECA0-083%11.3
1-14Auburn (96.0)SECH0-095%19.4
1-17Mississippi St. (171.1)SECA0-094%18.9
1-21South Carolina (17.4)SECH0-079%9.7
1-24Tennessee (165.2)SECA0-093%17.5
1-28Kansas (7.5)B12H0-065%4.7
1-31Georgia (65.1)SECH0-092%16.7
2-4Florida (9.6)SECA0-057%2.0
2-7LSU (94.2)SECH0-096%20.4
2-11Alabama (102.9)SECA0-083%11.7
2-14Tennessee (165.2)SECH0-098%23.6
2-18Georgia (65.1)SECA0-081%10.5
2-21Missouri (167.3)SECA0-090%15.4
2-25Florida (9.6)SECH0-075%8.2
2-28Vanderbilt (72.4)SECH0-093%17.5
3-4Texas A&M (42.0)SECA0-069%6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC28.9326.09100.0085.3728.9318.46
VanderbiltSEC0.003.8457.1451.390.000.11
FloridaSEC0.003.8187.5078.160.002.15
GeorgiaSEC0.003.8166.6757.290.000.56
TennesseeSEC0.003.8125.0036.58-0.00-1.02
Texas A&MSEC0.003.8166.6769.180.001.46
ArkansasSEC0.892.3183.3364.620.600.68
South CarolinaSEC0.002.28100.0082.840.001.49
MississippiSEC0.452.2571.4347.260.19-0.12
AlabamaSEC0.002.2566.6757.380.000.33
AuburnSEC0.002.2383.3356.870.000.31
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.2271.4344.310.00-0.25
LSUSEC0.002.2271.4351.330.000.06
MissouriSEC0.002.2250.0047.160.00-0.13
Cleveland St.Horz8.631.7520.0031.35-5.18-0.65
Tennessee MartinOVC8.781.7285.7156.266.270.22
UCLAP120.001.72100.0085.470.001.22
ValparaisoHorz0.001.7085.7176.840.000.91
CanisiusMAAC8.631.6940.0042.90-1.73-0.24
DuquesneA108.781.6942.8635.81-1.25-0.48
North CarolinaACC0.001.6985.7181.020.001.05
KansasB120.001.6785.7177.550.000.92
Arizona St.P127.141.6666.6737.252.38-0.42
LouisvilleACC0.001.6485.7176.690.000.87
Stephen F. AustinSlnd7.141.6433.3359.07-2.380.30
HofstraCAA0.001.6157.1441.920.00-0.26
Michigan St.B107.141.6157.1463.651.020.44
ArizonaP120.450.2185.7170.990.320.09
OaklandHorz0.000.1983.3378.430.000.11
OregonP120.000.1971.4366.730.000.06
DukeACC0.450.1887.5078.680.330.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.170.0034.01-0.00-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.600.1642.8637.60-0.09-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1640.0061.37-0.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1666.6753.460.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1666.6739.720.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.1650.0036.240.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.1671.4374.450.000.08
USCP120.000.16100.0075.380.000.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.1666.6770.740.000.07
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1366.6769.810.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
DavidsonA100.510.1383.3368.880.340.05
DaytonA100.000.1366.6772.440.000.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
BaylorB120.450.13100.0074.460.450.06
MinnesotaB100.000.1385.7165.670.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.1383.3351.920.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1385.7155.550.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.12100.0069.770.000.05
DetroitHorz0.000.110.0019.51-0.00-0.07
Green BayHorz0.000.1133.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1150.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1133.3333.15-0.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1150.0052.140.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1171.4355.750.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1114.2928.66-0.00-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.600.1183.3370.360.400.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1157.1444.160.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0091.060.000.09
Kansas St.B120.000.1185.7155.890.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.1175.0073.840.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1071.4366.530.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1071.4371.570.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1028.5723.76-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB120.000.1085.7163.780.000.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1028.5750.51-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.1066.6770.140.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1085.7162.410.000.03
IndianaB100.000.1083.3375.060.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1071.4368.970.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1071.4365.740.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1050.0043.610.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1083.3356.560.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1075.0059.100.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.10100.0082.550.000.07
WashingtonP120.000.1057.1452.630.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.1050.0036.820.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0058.600.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0857.1461.940.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.600.0885.7168.390.430.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0850.0043.490.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0840.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0842.8661.90-0.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0871.4356.050.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0825.0038.72-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0862.5056.500.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0883.3380.700.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.0814.2933.07-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.77-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0842.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0850.0046.670.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0816.6743.29-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0857.1448.240.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.450.0840.0043.86-0.09-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0850.0064.840.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0833.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0837.5036.24-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0871.4354.520.000.01
TulaneAmer0.510.0814.2926.81-0.36-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0871.4352.370.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.450.0871.4386.030.190.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0883.3363.610.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.0850.0071.330.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0850.0053.050.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0885.7173.010.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
TCUB120.000.08100.0059.480.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.450.0520.0034.39-0.27-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0520.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.45-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0516.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0550.0052.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0540.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0533.3341.11-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0542.8636.82-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0520.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0520.0048.38-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.050.0028.15-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0566.6761.340.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0566.6775.370.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0533.3327.13-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0533.3323.33-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.170.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.630.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0550.0029.280.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0528.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0560.0067.410.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0583.3376.370.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0566.6765.810.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0533.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0575.0067.660.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0566.6751.090.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.650.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0583.3362.080.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0550.0051.260.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0070.140.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0560.0057.900.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0542.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3358.080.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.510.0540.0057.49-0.100.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.450.0562.5043.960.11-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0516.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0560.0052.760.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4349.590.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0575.0061.040.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.890.0325.0024.66-0.45-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.890.0320.0032.60-0.54-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.450.030.0024.25-0.45-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.600.0350.0051.820.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0325.0024.28-0.22-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.510.0333.3335.92-0.17-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.450.0333.3340.49-0.15-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.030.0024.77-0.45-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.510.0325.0040.37-0.26-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.450.0328.5733.92-0.19-0.01
The CitadelSC0.510.0340.0027.05-0.10-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.450.0380.0055.340.270.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01