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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:10.0
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:4
Current Record:24-10
Expected Record:24-10
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1010.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Utah Valley (83.0)WACH73-63W100%0.0
11-12Vermont (60.0)AEH73-69W100%0.0
11-14Kansas (5.0)B12N65-61L0%0.0
11-17East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Troy (194.0)SBH70-62W100%0.0
11-22Fort Wayne (209.0)SumH86-67W100%0.0
11-26Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzH107-73W100%0.0
12-2Harvard (117.0)IvyH79-70W100%0.0
12-9Monmouth (199.0)MAACN93-76W100%0.0
12-16Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH93-86W100%0.0
12-23UCLA (36.0)P12N75-83L0%0.0
12-29Louisville (38.0)ACCH90-61W100%0.0
12-31Georgia (79.0)SECH66-61W100%0.0
1-3LSU (95.0)SECA71-74W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee (8.0)SECA76-65L0%0.0
1-9Texas A&M (29.0)SECH74-73W100%0.0
1-13Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA67-74W100%0.0
1-16South Carolina (90.0)SECA76-68L0%0.0
1-20Florida (46.0)SECH64-66L0%0.0
1-23Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH78-65W100%0.0
1-27West Virginia (27.0)B12A76-83W100%0.0
1-30Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH83-81W100%0.0
2-3Missouri (43.0)SECA69-60L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee (8.0)SECH59-61L0%0.0
2-10Texas A&M (29.0)SECA85-74L0%0.0
2-14Auburn (15.0)SECA76-66L0%0.0
2-17Alabama (42.0)SECH81-71W100%0.0
2-20Arkansas (30.0)SECA72-87W100%0.0
2-24Missouri (43.0)SECH87-66W100%0.0
2-28Mississippi (141.0)SECH96-78W100%0.0
3-3Florida (46.0)SECA80-67L0%0.0
3-9Georgia (79.0)SECN62-49W100%0.0
3-10Alabama (42.0)SECN86-63W100%0.0
3-11Tennessee (8.0)SECN72-77W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.1926.1969.5769.5710.2510.25
TennesseeSEC5.005.0076.6776.672.672.67
GeorgiaSEC3.653.6558.0658.060.590.59
AlabamaSEC3.613.6159.3859.380.680.68
Texas A&MSEC3.593.5963.3363.330.960.96
VanderbiltSEC3.583.5840.0040.00-0.72-0.72
FloridaSEC3.553.5560.0060.000.710.71
MissouriSEC3.553.5562.0762.070.860.86
ArkansasSEC2.252.2569.7069.700.890.89
Mississippi St.SEC2.202.2067.7467.740.780.78
South CarolinaSEC2.172.1748.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC2.152.1538.7138.71-0.49-0.49
LSUSEC2.152.1556.6756.670.290.29
AuburnSEC2.122.1277.4277.421.161.16
West VirginiaB121.631.6372.7372.730.740.74
KansasB121.581.5878.7978.790.910.91
TroySB1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Virginia TechACC1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
East Tennessee St.SC1.521.5274.1974.190.740.74
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
Fort WayneSum1.521.5251.8551.850.060.06
LouisvilleACC1.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
VermontAE1.501.5081.2581.250.930.93
HarvardIvy1.491.4958.6258.620.260.26
MonmouthMAAC1.471.4736.6736.67-0.39-0.39
UCLAP121.471.4764.5264.520.430.43
Utah ValleyWAC1.471.4767.8667.860.530.53
VirginiaACC0.200.2093.9493.940.180.18
Iowa St.B120.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
MercerSC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
BaylorB120.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
TexasB120.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
OklahomaB120.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
DetroitHorz0.140.1420.0020.00-0.09-0.09
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
USCP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
StanfordP120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
FurmanSC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
ArizonaP120.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.4371.430.060.06
TCUB120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Texas TechB120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Green BayHorz0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
ClemsonACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.08-0.08
PennIvy0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
OaklandHorz0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
WoffordSC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
SamfordSC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
South DakotaSum0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
BucknellPat0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0410.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.049.689.68-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01