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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Kentucky

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:3.0
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:14
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-53.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH87-64W100%0.0
11-13Canisius (171.0)MAACH93-69W100%0.0
11-15Michigan St. (51.0)B10N48-69W100%0.0
11-20Duquesne (267.0)A10H93-59W100%0.0
11-23Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH101-70W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH111-76W100%0.0
11-28Arizona St. (125.0)P12N69-115W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (16.0)P12H92-97L0%0.0
12-7Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH87-63W100%0.0
12-11Hofstra (196.0)CAAN96-73W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina (5.0)ACCN100-103W100%0.0
12-21Louisville (7.0)ACCA73-70L0%0.0
12-29Mississippi (77.0)SECA76-99W100%0.0
1-3Texas A&M (92.0)SECH100-58W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas (28.0)SECH97-71W100%0.0
1-10Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA81-87W100%0.0
1-14Auburn (113.0)SECH92-72W100%0.0
1-17Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA81-88W100%0.0
1-21South Carolina (42.0)SECH85-69W100%0.0
1-24Tennessee (82.0)SECA82-80L0%0.0
1-28Kansas (4.0)B12H73-79L0%0.0
1-31Georgia (52.0)SECH90-81W100%0.0
2-4Florida (10.0)SECA88-66L0%0.0
2-7LSU (193.0)SECH92-85W100%0.0
2-11Alabama (78.0)SECA58-67W100%0.0
2-14Tennessee (82.0)SECH83-58W100%0.0
2-18Georgia (52.0)SECA77-82W100%0.0
2-21Missouri (257.0)SECA62-72W100%0.0
2-25Florida (10.0)SECH76-66W100%0.0
2-28Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH73-67W100%0.0
3-4Texas A&M (92.0)SECA63-71W100%0.0
3-10Georgia (52.0)SECN71-60W100%0.0
3-11Alabama (78.0)SECN79-74W100%0.0
3-12Arkansas (28.0)SECN82-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
KentuckySEC26.1926.1984.8784.8718.2618.26
GeorgiaSEC5.035.0362.0762.071.211.21
VanderbiltSEC3.703.7059.3859.380.690.69
ArkansasSEC3.653.6578.1278.122.052.05
AlabamaSEC3.613.6161.2961.290.810.81
FloridaSEC3.603.6076.6776.671.921.92
TennesseeSEC3.583.5848.2848.28-0.12-0.12
Texas A&MSEC3.573.5755.1755.170.370.37
South CarolinaSEC2.182.1870.0070.000.870.87
MississippiSEC2.162.1662.5062.500.540.54
Mississippi St.SEC2.162.1651.6151.610.070.07
MissouriSEC2.152.1525.8125.81-1.04-1.04
AuburnSEC2.132.1358.0658.060.340.34
LSUSEC2.132.1333.3333.33-0.71-0.71
Cleveland St.Horz1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
ValparaisoHorz1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
Tennessee MartinOVC1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
UCLAP121.561.5687.5087.501.171.17
CanisiusMAAC1.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
DuquesneA101.541.5432.2632.26-0.55-0.55
North CarolinaACC1.541.5481.2581.250.960.96
KansasB121.541.5487.1087.101.141.14
Arizona St.P121.521.5246.8846.88-0.09-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.511.5153.5753.570.110.11
LouisvilleACC1.491.4974.1974.190.720.72
HofstraCAA1.471.4746.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Michigan St.B101.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
OregonP120.200.2084.8584.850.140.14
ArizonaP120.200.2088.2488.240.160.16
DukeACC0.200.2077.1477.140.110.11
TexasB120.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
ClemsonACC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
USCP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
MinnesotaB100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1436.0036.00-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
BelmontOVC0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
PurdueB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
North FloridaASun0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
BaylorB120.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.090.09
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
WashingtonP120.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0464.7164.710.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0430.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0421.4321.43-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
StetsonASun0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
ButlerBE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
High PointBSth0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0455.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01