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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:88.7
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:310
Current Record:20-4
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-467.27.19%
25-576.225.25%
24-686.935.81%
23-7100.122.18%
22-8116.08.14%
21-9132.71.31%
20-10150.40.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Auburn (167.3)SECA75-74L0%0.0
11-16Alabama St. (305.5)SWACH72-70W100%0.0
11-19Troy (298.5)SBA63-79W100%0.0
11-22Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCH61-55W100%0.0
11-27Illinois (156.9)B10N72-58L0%0.0
11-28Virginia Tech (130.3)ACCN77-82L0%0.0
12-1Georgia St. (160.1)SBH64-57W100%0.0
12-5Illinois St. (111.2)MVCA61-74W100%0.0
12-13Seattle (268.7)WACH79-73W100%0.0
12-16USC Upstate (327.4)ASunH96-54W100%0.0
12-19South Florida (246.6)AmerA68-79W100%0.0
12-29Stephen F. Austin (96.5)SlndH76-66W100%0.0
1-3Middle Tennessee (86.2)CUSAH78-67W100%0.0
1-7UTSA (342.6)CUSAH104-82W100%0.0
1-9UTEP (221.2)CUSAH87-80W100%0.0
1-14Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA71-72W100%0.0
1-16Charlotte (232.8)CUSAA72-74W100%0.0
1-21Rice (298.4)CUSAH82-70W100%0.0
1-23North Texas (298.8)CUSAH78-57W100%0.0
1-28Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAA69-62L0%0.0
1-30Marshall (126.6)CUSAA78-81W100%0.0
2-4FIU (242.9)CUSAH74-69W100%0.0
2-6Florida Atlantic (277.0)CUSAH104-67W100%0.0
2-11Southern Miss (297.1)CUSAA77-80W100%0.0
2-13Louisiana Tech (120.1)CUSAA0-049%-0.3
2-21Middle Tennessee (86.2)CUSAA0-047%-0.8
2-25Marshall (126.6)CUSAH0-073%6.6
2-27Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAH0-081%9.4
3-3FIU (242.9)CUSAA0-065%4.1
3-5Florida Atlantic (277.0)CUSAA0-081%9.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.1126.1584.6282.0018.0716.74
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.634.0771.4370.901.131.70
MarshallCUSA2.543.9652.1753.700.110.29
FIUCUSA2.543.9640.9144.86-0.46-0.41
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.543.9627.2729.25-1.15-1.64
Western KentuckyCUSA2.533.9642.8645.07-0.36-0.39
Old DominionCUSA2.552.3860.8765.280.550.73
UTEPCUSA2.552.3656.5256.070.330.29
UTSACUSA2.552.3513.6413.42-1.85-1.72
Southern MissCUSA2.542.3531.5832.98-0.94-0.80
CharlotteCUSA2.502.3539.1343.73-0.54-0.29
North TexasCUSA2.552.3233.3333.62-0.85-0.76
Louisiana TechCUSA0.512.3072.7371.210.230.97
RiceCUSA2.502.2928.5729.17-1.07-0.96
Georgia St.SB2.271.8457.8955.730.360.21
TroySB2.281.8123.8125.25-1.19-0.90
AuburnSEC2.131.7336.3633.22-0.58-0.58
Virginia TechACC2.171.7350.0047.210.00-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC2.171.7225.0025.02-1.09-0.86
Alabama St.SWAC2.171.7230.0034.53-0.87-0.53
South FloridaAmer2.131.7020.8320.38-1.24-1.00
IllinoisB102.081.6743.4842.20-0.27-0.26
Illinois St.MVC2.081.6758.3355.950.350.20
SeattleWAC2.081.6750.0046.820.00-0.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.081.6776.4778.621.100.95
USC UpstateASun2.081.6722.7323.28-1.14-0.89
South AlabamaSB0.300.2436.3636.29-0.08-0.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.290.2368.1871.350.110.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.2350.0049.320.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.200.1825.0028.15-0.10-0.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.240.1842.8641.34-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.240.1840.0038.88-0.05-0.04
BelmontOVC0.180.1768.0066.640.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1752.1753.440.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1741.6739.49-0.02-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.180.1750.0048.130.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1672.0071.320.060.07
Chicago St.WAC0.230.154.357.72-0.21-0.13
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1550.0052.870.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1560.0062.250.020.04
North FloridaASun0.130.1562.5064.120.030.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1536.8442.88-0.04-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1468.1865.170.050.04
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5058.940.040.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1450.0050.500.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1473.0872.610.080.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1250.0049.760.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1245.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.1220.0022.25-0.12-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1245.4554.18-0.010.01
LamarSlnd0.150.1230.0029.13-0.06-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1265.2268.600.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1286.3684.220.110.08
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1240.9138.82-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.140.1228.0030.49-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1245.4549.05-0.01-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.1222.7327.39-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1250.0054.180.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1224.0025.68-0.10-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1282.6181.130.060.07
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1247.8348.57-0.01-0.00
TulaneAmer0.190.1236.0034.84-0.05-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1256.0055.450.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.130.1247.8350.89-0.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.140.1260.8755.980.030.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.1215.0018.13-0.06-0.07
ElonCAA0.140.1150.0050.070.000.00
MemphisAmer0.090.1158.3359.310.020.02
DrakeMVC0.130.1120.8323.28-0.08-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1150.0049.480.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.130.1150.0044.650.00-0.01
MarylandB100.090.1187.5083.660.060.07
UMKCWAC0.140.0928.5732.75-0.06-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0976.1972.370.050.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3334.95-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0952.9452.100.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0917.6526.67-0.07-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0914.2915.44-0.07-0.06
WinthropBSth0.140.0966.6763.780.050.02
NJITASun0.090.0956.0055.640.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.099.0917.14-0.04-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.050.0961.9065.330.010.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0940.0040.34-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0973.9174.640.040.04
ClemsonACC0.130.0958.3358.400.020.01
VCUA100.090.0970.8371.050.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0947.6249.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.140.0940.0041.68-0.03-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.130.0983.3383.710.090.06
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0972.0073.080.060.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0925.0025.08-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.090.0987.5081.850.070.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0829.1733.11-0.05-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0866.6763.300.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0879.1775.990.050.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0880.0081.560.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.0845.8343.78-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0839.1341.05-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0825.0033.23-0.02-0.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0860.0055.560.020.01
KentuckySEC0.130.0875.0072.610.060.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0883.3381.280.080.05
Miami FLACC0.040.0882.6177.580.030.04
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.100.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0666.6767.670.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0654.5555.550.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0625.0026.38-0.05-0.03
NavyPat0.090.0664.0064.460.030.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0666.6764.780.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0625.0029.89-0.05-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0618.1821.11-0.03-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0660.8762.080.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0662.5063.450.010.02
WashingtonP120.090.0662.5060.140.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0654.5552.530.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0675.0075.340.020.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0660.8759.830.020.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0630.4329.49-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0657.1457.670.010.01
MercerSC0.090.0666.6767.110.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0624.0026.44-0.02-0.03
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.070.030.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.4543.87-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0660.8756.270.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0666.6766.770.020.02
IdahoBSky0.090.0656.5255.340.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0650.0051.280.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.02-0.01-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0648.0048.60-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0660.0057.650.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0682.6183.010.030.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0665.2264.340.010.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0658.3360.710.020.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0670.8368.080.040.02
BradleyMVC0.040.0612.0011.95-0.03-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0659.0955.160.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0658.3359.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0673.9176.700.020.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.059.5210.67-0.07-0.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0533.3330.28-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0543.4850.64-0.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0586.9680.420.060.03
AkronMAC0.040.0582.6181.140.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0572.0071.570.040.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0570.8367.980.030.02
IndianaB100.040.0580.0075.690.030.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0570.8367.970.040.02
MichiganB100.090.0570.8366.750.040.02
MinnesotaB100.040.0525.0027.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0550.0048.950.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.040.0564.0062.090.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0570.8367.930.040.02
OhioMAC0.040.0563.6461.470.010.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0572.7367.600.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0580.0077.910.050.03
RutgersB100.040.0521.7420.34-0.02-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0586.9682.920.060.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0568.0064.090.030.02
TempleAmer0.040.0565.2262.370.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0583.3378.460.060.03
Wake ForestACC0.040.0541.6739.90-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.040.0562.5057.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0543.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.83-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0354.1751.700.000.00
BaylorB120.060.0373.9168.450.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0333.3330.63-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0322.2231.22-0.03-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0326.3232.40-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0340.0045.20-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0323.8122.86-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0314.2924.90-0.04-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0338.1035.34-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0323.8125.49-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.1753.810.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0341.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.45-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6458.760.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0313.0415.26-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0314.2914.91-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0052.940.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.580.020.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.440.030.02
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0343.4843.77-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0369.5770.090.020.01
TCUB120.040.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.040.0334.7831.64-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.780.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.69-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.510.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0356.5257.060.010.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0331.8232.08-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0370.8370.130.000.01
DavidsonA100.040.0361.9058.170.010.00
DelawareCAA0.040.0325.0024.93-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.039.0912.26-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.040.0375.0071.840.020.01
FurmanSC0.040.0356.0054.430.010.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.960.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.870.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0354.1752.000.000.00
IowaB100.040.0379.1778.880.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.760.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0324.0024.61-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.380.030.02
Penn St.B100.000.0350.0046.770.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.040.0372.0069.130.020.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0352.1754.100.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0358.3357.250.010.00
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.820.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6764.700.000.01
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.67-0.03-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0368.1867.110.020.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.620.020.01