UAB

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	140.0
Current RPI:	138
Expected SOS:	50
Current SOS:	55
Current Record:	9-13
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	4-5
Expected Conf Record:	7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.77%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-2
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	165
Expected OOC SOS:	53

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-13	80.3	0.03%
15-14	94.9	0.80%
14-15	106.7	4.62%
13-16	119.2	15.63%
12-17	132.6	28.48%
11-18	147.2	31.12%
10-19	163.1	15.92%
9-20	178.9	3.39%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-16	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	H	60-70	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	H	55-62	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	71-59	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	A	68-46	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	H	54-59	L	0%	0.0
11-30	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	55-47	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	57-48	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	H	66-56	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)	CAA	A	68-49	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	70-65	W	100%	0.0
12-28	George Washington (196.4)	A10	A	49-56	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	92-58	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Florida (14.9)	SEC	A	79-61	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	H	59-62	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	59-61	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	59-55	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	60-61	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	41-48	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	49-56	W	100%	0.0
1-28	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	H	66-73	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	H	80-69	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	60-61	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	H	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-11	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	0-0		9%	-14.6
2-15	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	A	0-0		50%	0.1
2-18	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	H	0-0		56%	1.7
2-25	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	A	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-29	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	H	0-0		47%	-0.7
3-3	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	A	0-0		26%	-7.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UAB	CUSA	26.26	26.19	39.09	38.92	-5.73	-5.80
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.77	4.19	85.00	82.09	1.94	2.69
Memphis	CUSA	2.70	4.16	68.18	69.86	0.98	1.65
Marshall	CUSA	4.81	4.12	60.00	60.44	0.96	0.86
Central Florida	CUSA	2.60	4.11	70.00	65.02	1.04	1.24
East Carolina	CUSA	2.59	4.10	41.18	38.08	-0.46	-0.98
Tulsa	CUSA	0.47	2.39	60.87	59.27	0.10	0.44
Tulane	CUSA	0.49	2.36	61.90	59.14	0.12	0.43
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.60	2.33	45.45	44.80	-0.24	-0.24
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.32	2.33	38.10	37.44	-0.08	-0.59
Houston	CUSA	2.54	2.33	50.00	46.28	0.00	-0.17
Rice	CUSA	2.54	2.33	50.00	48.18	0.00	-0.08
South Alabama	SB	2.60	1.94	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	2.48	1.90	100.00	94.34	2.48	1.68
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.54	1.89	86.96	87.79	1.88	1.43
Troy	SB	2.48	1.85	30.00	31.38	-0.99	-0.69
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.43	1.82	0.00	6.43	-2.43	-1.59
Creighton	MVC	2.32	1.81	86.96	84.90	1.72	1.27
Wichita St.	MVC	2.32	1.81	81.82	79.72	1.48	1.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	2.33	1.79	18.75	28.23	-1.45	-0.78
Florida	SEC	2.32	1.75	81.82	76.89	1.48	0.94
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.32	1.75	79.17	77.33	1.35	0.96
George Washington	A10	2.32	1.75	36.36	33.19	-0.63	-0.59
Jacksonville	ASun	2.32	1.75	18.18	22.78	-1.48	-0.95
Kent St.	MAC	2.27	1.72	70.00	67.95	0.91	0.62
Belmont	ASun	0.50	0.33	69.57	73.28	0.20	0.15
Western Kentucky	SB	0.26	0.31	34.78	34.48	-0.08	-0.10
Austin Peay	OVC	0.30	0.27	33.33	35.97	-0.10	-0.08
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.23	0.22	16.67	23.02	-0.15	-0.12
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.17	0.21	19.05	25.52	-0.10	-0.10
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.16	0.19	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.20	0.19	33.33	37.16	-0.07	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.21	0.19	56.52	53.10	0.03	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.21	0.19	37.50	38.33	-0.05	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.26	0.19	54.17	54.75	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.16	0.19	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.21	0.18	34.78	38.42	-0.06	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.16	0.18	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.25	0.18	43.48	43.82	-0.03	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.25	0.18	68.18	67.91	0.09	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.18	69.57	68.90	0.08	0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.20	0.18	62.50	61.50	0.05	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.17	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.16	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.21	0.16	70.83	72.23	0.09	0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.16	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.15	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.21	0.15	72.73	71.71	0.09	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.21	0.15	68.18	69.10	0.08	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.15	31.82	31.31	-0.06	-0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.21	0.15	81.82	77.20	0.13	0.08
Syracuse	BE	0.20	0.15	95.83	92.01	0.19	0.12
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.24	0.15	24.00	24.86	-0.13	-0.07
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.15	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.17	0.13	30.00	37.30	-0.07	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.18	0.13	17.39	24.41	-0.12	-0.07
NC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.13	34.78	33.46	-0.05	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.16	0.13	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.13	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.12	78.26	72.34	0.12	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.05	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.12	31.82	32.75	-0.06	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.12	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.12	66.67	60.80	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.12	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.12	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.12	34.78	32.06	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.12	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.10	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.07
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.10	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.11	0.10	73.91	68.58	0.05	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.10	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.10	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.08
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.10	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.10	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.16	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.10	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.09	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.09	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.09	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.16	0.09	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.09	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.09	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.09	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.05
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.09	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.03
Temple	A10	0.10	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.09	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.07
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.09	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.16	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.05	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.09	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.09	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.09	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.09	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.15	0.09	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.07	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.07	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.07	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.07	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.05	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.09	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.00	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.00	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.00	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.00	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.00	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.00	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.00	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.00	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01