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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:189.3
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:297
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-740.00.01%
20-855.80.05%
19-973.10.16%
18-1086.00.78%
17-11102.81.88%
16-12118.84.33%
15-13137.27.59%
14-14155.312.31%
13-15173.515.36%
12-16190.516.78%
11-17209.616.37%
10-18226.311.35%
9-19244.87.19%
8-20260.13.66%
7-21275.91.63%
6-22289.50.42%
5-23303.10.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Louisiana Monroe (114.5)SBH65-74L0%0.0
11-20South Florida (132.3)AmerH71-73L0%0.0
11-23Jackson St. (296.5)SWACH58-50W100%0.0
11-26Wisconsin (6.4)B10N0-04%-21.4
12-4Morehead St. (168.3)OVCH0-056%1.7
12-7Illinois St. (71.6)MVCH0-036%-4.3
12-14UNC Asheville (215.0)BSthH0-072%6.9
12-18LSU (72.8)SECH0-034%-4.9
12-22Chattanooga (250.7)SCA0-052%0.7
12-27North Carolina (14.5)ACCA0-04%-21.0
1-4Middle Tennessee (182.1)CUSAA0-038%-3.7
1-8Florida Atlantic (251.3)CUSAH0-072%7.1
1-10FIU (208.3)CUSAH0-070%6.3
1-15Louisiana Tech (70.2)CUSAA0-017%-11.6
1-17Southern Miss (138.6)CUSAA0-031%-6.1
1-22Charlotte (79.4)CUSAH0-039%-3.2
1-24Old Dominion (96.0)CUSAH0-041%-2.7
1-29UTEP (86.1)CUSAA0-020%-10.1
1-31UTSA (255.4)CUSAA0-051%0.2
2-5Louisiana Tech (70.2)CUSAH0-036%-4.4
2-7Southern Miss (138.6)CUSAH0-054%1.1
2-12North Texas (220.9)CUSAA0-047%-0.8
2-14Rice (269.2)CUSAA0-060%3.0
2-19Western Kentucky (177.9)CUSAH0-061%3.3
2-21Marshall (144.0)CUSAH0-054%1.2
2-28Middle Tennessee (182.1)CUSAH0-061%3.5
3-5Florida Atlantic (251.3)CUSAA0-050%-0.1
3-7FIU (208.3)CUSAA0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA34.0326.2017.6539.13-22.02-5.70
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.004.3650.0045.830.00-0.36
Louisiana TechCUSA0.004.3380.0071.440.001.86
Southern MissCUSA0.004.3250.0053.910.000.34
FIUCUSA0.004.27100.0043.760.00-0.53
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.004.260.0035.55-0.00-1.23
MarshallCUSA0.002.5766.6753.070.000.16
UTEPCUSA0.002.55100.0069.690.001.00
UTSACUSA0.002.5550.0037.280.00-0.65
Old DominionCUSA0.002.5475.0071.330.001.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.5433.3343.48-0.00-0.33
CharlotteCUSA0.002.5275.0065.720.000.79
North TexasCUSA0.002.4866.6739.370.00-0.53
RiceCUSA0.002.4833.3327.76-0.00-1.10
Jackson St.SWAC19.441.9433.3341.60-6.48-0.33
LSUSEC0.001.8875.0057.930.000.30
ChattanoogaSC0.001.880.0046.42-0.00-0.13
Morehead St.OVC0.001.8820.0053.54-0.000.13
WisconsinB100.001.82100.0084.640.001.26
Illinois St.MVC0.001.8266.6766.630.000.60
South FloridaAmer18.751.8150.0050.360.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.001.8133.3348.13-0.00-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB16.671.790.0061.97-16.670.43
North CarolinaACC0.001.79100.0070.470.000.73
South AlabamaSB0.000.200.0039.80-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.190.0034.13-0.00-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.19100.0078.240.000.10
North Carolina St.ACC4.860.18100.0061.864.860.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0038.43-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.170.0058.69-0.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.160.0046.28-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1640.0039.12-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.160.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.1650.0070.910.000.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1666.6774.140.000.07
TroySB0.000.130.0044.81-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1350.0051.920.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1375.0056.300.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.13100.0064.500.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.130.0031.77-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.130.0032.23-0.00-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.13100.0059.020.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.13100.0047.030.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.130.0037.72-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun2.080.120.0026.20-2.08-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.0021.88-0.00-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.120.0039.35-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1240.0049.19-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0026.81-0.00-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.120.0033.26-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0058.720.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1280.0044.310.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1266.6740.980.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0053.140.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.100.0065.55-0.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1066.6748.940.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.100.0043.24-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1050.0063.170.000.03
MercerSC0.000.1033.3353.66-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.100.0049.00-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1033.3321.72-0.00-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.1066.6746.700.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.23-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0925.0056.01-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0029.00-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC4.170.0966.6768.431.390.03
HoustonAmer0.000.09100.0065.000.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0053.62-0.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.97-0.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6762.360.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3340.10-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0053.290.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0039.080.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0024.98-0.00-0.05
AkronMAC0.000.0975.0070.240.000.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0085.260.000.07
IowaB100.000.0950.0065.830.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0075.950.000.05
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0054.940.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.38-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0052.480.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0960.0057.690.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0068.410.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0019.05-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0079.170.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.380.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0766.6749.380.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0031.49-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.430.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3334.44-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.19-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3349.44-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0056.830.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0061.440.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0720.0036.50-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0750.0067.640.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0725.0066.60-0.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0045.000.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.07100.0058.810.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.070.0056.76-0.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0031.430.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0733.3327.62-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0750.0042.650.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3323.14-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3324.24-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0666.6749.820.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0071.230.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0050.84-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.66-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.04-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.310.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.570.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.79-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0060.160.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.58-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0650.0034.180.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.410.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.710.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0060.050.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.580.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0051.68-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0633.3335.65-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.270.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.33-0.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0040.710.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0045.86-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6753.760.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0041.850.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6753.080.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.100.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0625.0043.02-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0088.080.000.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0042.910.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0071.890.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.570.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0021.84-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.20-0.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.770.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0069.230.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.220.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.480.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0054.34-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0067.090.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.94-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.27-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0028.39-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.81-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.29-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.730.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.390.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0048.750.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.510.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0070.780.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.980.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.850.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0041.22-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0017.97-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.270.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0028.27-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0063.150.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.23-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.140.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.840.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.140.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.50-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0038.210.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0066.50-0.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.28-0.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.320.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.14-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.000.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.78-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.490.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0021.40-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0050.440.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3348.37-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0037.26-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0021.84-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.770.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.410.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3341.27-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0060.180.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0028.32-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.520.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.100.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0033.50-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3347.23-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0073.060.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6751.770.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6765.070.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0366.6737.040.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.03-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3342.08-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6746.380.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.200.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.160.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6732.890.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0333.3353.24-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0043.51-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0066.86-0.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0046.960.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6746.610.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0064.030.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0063.690.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.370.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.480.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.770.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6753.120.000.00