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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:201.0
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:190
Current SOS:190
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16201.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH86-66W100%0.0
11-14Furman (96.0)SCH74-84L0%0.0
11-17Troy (147.0)SBH74-51W100%0.0
11-21Kansas (4.0)B12N83-63L0%0.0
11-22George Washington (102.0)A10N81-74W100%0.0
11-27Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCN76-63L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH75-45W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (113.0)SECH70-74L0%0.0
12-7Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA73-84W100%0.0
12-10Memphis (120.0)AmerA62-55L0%0.0
12-18Southern (320.0)SWACH75-74W100%0.0
12-21Texas (156.0)B12A96-60L0%0.0
1-1Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA60-49L0%0.0
1-5North Texas (339.0)CUSAA52-54W100%0.0
1-7Rice (167.0)CUSAA81-88W100%0.0
1-12Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH72-54W100%0.0
1-14Marshall (112.0)CUSAH94-78W100%0.0
1-19Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA78-80W100%0.0
1-21FIU (338.0)CUSAA94-85L0%0.0
1-26Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH79-70W100%0.0
1-28Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH87-43W100%0.0
2-2UTEP (222.0)CUSAA63-59L0%0.0
2-4UTSA (264.0)CUSAA82-67L0%0.0
2-9Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH82-69W100%0.0
2-11Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH62-83L0%0.0
2-16Marshall (112.0)CUSAA74-59L0%0.0
2-19Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAA76-64L0%0.0
2-26Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH64-66L0%0.0
3-2Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH79-59W100%0.0
3-4FIU (338.0)CUSAH56-68L0%0.0
3-8Charlotte (240.0)CUSAH74-73W100%0.0
3-9Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAN69-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.1726.1747.1447.14-1.50-1.50
MarshallCUSA3.943.9456.2556.250.490.49
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.893.8987.1087.102.892.89
Western KentuckyCUSA3.813.8146.6746.67-0.25-0.25
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.783.7830.7730.77-1.45-1.45
Louisiana TechCUSA3.763.7668.9768.971.431.43
CharlotteCUSA3.763.7644.4444.44-0.42-0.42
FIUCUSA3.743.7411.1111.11-2.91-2.91
UTSACUSA2.362.3636.6736.67-0.63-0.63
UTEPCUSA2.332.3343.3343.33-0.31-0.31
RiceCUSA2.312.3166.6766.670.770.77
Old DominionCUSA2.302.3060.0060.000.460.46
Southern MissCUSA2.282.2825.0025.00-1.14-1.14
North TexasCUSA2.232.2322.2222.22-1.24-1.24
Alabama A&MSWAC1.721.727.147.14-1.47-1.47
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
SouthernSWAC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
Saint Mary'sWCC1.611.6187.1087.101.201.20
TexasB121.611.6131.2531.25-0.60-0.60
KansasB121.611.6187.1087.101.191.19
TroySB1.591.5960.6160.610.340.34
George WashingtonA101.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
AuburnSEC1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
FurmanSC1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
MemphisAmer1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.280.2823.3323.33-0.15-0.15
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.260.2635.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Texas TechB120.220.2256.2556.250.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Texas St.SB0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
MissouriSEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
OklahomaB120.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
ToledoMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1332.0032.00-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
BaylorB120.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
OhioMAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
VCUA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
PortlandWCC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00