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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:126.7
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:178
Current SOS:208
Current Record:11-7
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-771.50.80%
21-883.65.61%
20-999.217.98%
19-10117.329.21%
18-11137.425.33%
17-12157.514.77%
16-13175.74.91%
15-14193.71.20%
14-15209.60.17%
13-16231.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Jacksonville (302.1)ASunH96-67W100%0.0
11-13Chattanooga (287.7)SCH89-47W100%0.0
11-20Richmond (201.5)A10N50-63L0%0.0
11-21Buffalo (33.7)MACN96-91L0%0.0
11-22Iowa (156.4)B10N85-95L0%0.0
11-30Memphis (118.3)AmerH71-56W100%0.0
12-5Troy (206.3)SBA78-90W100%0.0
12-9Auburn (18.1)SECA85-80L0%0.0
12-16Alabama A&M (348.5)SWACH90-58W100%0.0
12-20New Orleans (217.6)SlndH74-67W100%0.0
12-23Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH74-57W100%0.0
12-30Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAH60-63L0%0.0
1-4Florida Atlantic (239.7)CUSAA44-75W100%0.0
1-6FIU (288.5)CUSAA64-75W100%0.0
1-11Southern Miss (222.5)CUSAH86-75W100%0.0
1-13Louisiana Tech (159.8)CUSAH74-62W100%0.0
1-18Western Kentucky (45.2)CUSAA77-69L0%0.0
1-20Marshall (100.9)CUSAA86-78L0%0.0
1-25UTEP (284.2)CUSAH0-089%13.4
1-27UTSA (249.0)CUSAH0-086%12.1
2-1Charlotte (302.0)CUSAA0-082%10.2
2-3Old Dominion (74.5)CUSAA0-035%-4.4
2-8North Texas (217.6)CUSAH0-086%11.8
2-10Rice (321.9)CUSAH0-095%18.0
2-15Louisiana Tech (159.8)CUSAA0-054%1.1
2-17Southern Miss (222.5)CUSAA0-076%7.8
2-24Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAA0-029%-6.0
3-1Marshall (100.9)CUSAH0-074%7.3
3-3Western Kentucky (45.2)CUSAH0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.3626.1659.2163.254.866.93
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.324.1970.5973.941.372.01
Southern MissCUSA3.154.1643.7540.58-0.39-0.78
MarshallCUSA3.164.1466.6763.671.051.13
Louisiana TechCUSA3.004.1155.5657.660.330.63
Western KentuckyCUSA3.084.1166.6770.691.031.70
Old DominionCUSA0.392.4778.9577.160.221.34
CharlotteCUSA0.392.4723.5325.91-0.21-1.19
UTEPCUSA0.322.4533.3334.91-0.11-0.74
UTSACUSA0.322.4541.1840.62-0.06-0.46
North TexasCUSA0.152.3944.4447.81-0.02-0.10
RiceCUSA0.152.3911.1118.12-0.12-1.52
FIUCUSA2.942.3837.5036.86-0.74-0.63
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.942.3840.0039.12-0.59-0.52
Alabama A&MSWAC2.931.8410.5317.33-2.31-1.20
ChattanoogaSC2.851.8123.5329.59-1.51-0.74
TroySB2.861.7941.1846.02-0.50-0.14
AuburnSEC2.851.7888.8976.222.220.94
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.851.780.0010.60-2.85-1.40
MemphisAmer2.861.7668.4260.501.060.37
RichmondA102.781.7527.7832.08-1.23-0.63
New OrleansSlnd2.851.7540.0047.05-0.57-0.10
BuffaloMAC2.781.7270.5974.081.140.83
IowaB102.781.7245.0042.08-0.28-0.27
JacksonvilleASun2.781.7235.2935.05-0.82-0.52
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.320.2557.8966.270.050.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.360.2315.7922.64-0.24-0.12
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.300.2183.3381.420.200.13
OhioMAC0.220.2047.0648.43-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.280.2031.5840.82-0.10-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.330.1950.0045.850.00-0.02
MichiganB100.290.1876.1970.800.150.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.1831.5832.71-0.08-0.06
AkronMAC0.300.1747.0644.92-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1738.8943.36-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.290.1768.4259.020.110.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1736.8444.03-0.04-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.1525.0028.25-0.08-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.170.1535.0026.13-0.05-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.220.1566.6765.550.070.05
MississippiSEC0.150.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
George MasonA100.150.1445.0041.29-0.01-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1444.4446.03-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.290.1427.7832.67-0.13-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.220.1433.3339.89-0.07-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.1250.0051.390.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1280.0078.870.100.07
SMUAmer0.160.1270.0070.610.060.05
GeorgetownBE0.220.1268.4254.080.080.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.1241.1839.14-0.04-0.03
BelmontOVC0.150.1271.4374.670.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.300.1270.0068.210.120.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.1261.1151.910.020.00
MinnesotaB100.160.1263.6457.610.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.220.1244.4446.01-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.220.1189.4785.550.170.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1117.6527.34-0.09-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1125.0039.91-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1120.0040.93-0.04-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.107.6923.24-0.07-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.107.6920.08-0.07-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.1028.5731.24-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.107.1414.820.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.160.0931.5835.15-0.06-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0933.3336.93-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0952.9455.030.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.0950.0052.500.000.00
NJITASun0.150.0938.8942.58-0.03-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.0972.2258.880.070.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0927.7838.12-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0957.8950.210.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.160.0970.0068.290.060.03
Wright St.Horz0.150.0968.4269.260.060.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0977.7879.160.090.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0960.0062.010.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0931.5836.23-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0963.6459.480.000.02
DavidsonA100.070.0958.8261.440.010.02
MercerSC0.150.0944.4454.87-0.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.150.0970.5975.960.060.05
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0936.8435.58-0.02-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.150.0938.8935.38-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0926.3231.48-0.07-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0942.1132.460.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.140.0955.0053.330.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0958.8249.740.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.150.0966.6767.670.050.03
VCUA100.070.0960.0059.710.010.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0964.7160.010.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.150.0968.4264.160.060.02
DaytonA100.150.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
IllinoisB100.140.0945.0043.62-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0944.4444.91-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.140.0990.4888.390.110.07
WisconsinB100.070.0950.0046.270.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.140.0852.6351.740.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0852.6347.380.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.065.8819.39-0.08-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.660.040.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0616.6724.90-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0652.9459.380.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0658.8257.130.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0673.6872.400.040.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0611.1118.00-0.06-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0621.0523.52-0.05-0.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0650.0054.900.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.0645.0047.06-0.02-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0627.7831.08-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0678.9571.750.050.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0678.9573.000.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0638.8944.07-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0663.1665.980.020.02
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7868.030.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.0638.8940.78-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0652.6347.500.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.680.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.540.030.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.390.030.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0677.7870.410.040.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0645.0048.570.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.250.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0652.9460.230.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0642.1143.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0635.2940.46-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.070.0665.0058.600.020.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.37-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.610.000.02
USCP120.080.0671.4368.300.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0645.0045.030.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0668.7563.660.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0626.6729.120.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0625.0024.140.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.040.030.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0673.6868.040.040.02
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.19-0.04-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0673.6865.250.030.02
DelawareCAA0.150.0647.3743.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0647.0641.38-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0623.5328.71-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0647.0654.68-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0666.6768.750.030.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.070.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0652.9452.250.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.060.050.03
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.150.0657.1453.040.020.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0617.6534.76-0.05-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0672.2272.970.060.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0668.4263.970.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6755.900.020.01
IndianaB100.070.0660.0052.880.010.00
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.190.020.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0681.8276.870.040.03
Penn St.B100.070.0661.9055.820.020.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.870.020.01
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.830.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0352.9452.670.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0361.9065.150.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.110.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0355.5657.250.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0365.0056.350.020.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0311.1115.30-0.06-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0326.3230.45-0.04-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.890.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.220.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.110.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0378.9576.980.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.030.008.42-0.08-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0368.7564.010.030.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0310.5326.290.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0329.4134.78-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0344.4450.310.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0363.1657.530.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0357.8953.220.010.00
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.430.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0361.1156.790.020.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.710.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.600.020.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.000.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.170.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.710.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6747.000.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.03-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.0020.280.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.450.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0368.4261.280.030.01
VermontAE0.070.0375.0077.870.040.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.250.030.01
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.06-0.07-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.30-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.600.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.220.030.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.500.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0357.8946.220.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.820.040.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.200.040.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0366.6763.130.020.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.7183.760.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.150.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.220.020.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0355.0050.370.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.650.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.93-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.77-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.720.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0370.0060.400.030.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.380.000.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.430.000.01