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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:152.0
Current RPI:152
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:150
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:193



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13152.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Rutgers (192.0)AmerH79-76W100%0.0
11-14Troy (285.0)SBH81-69W100%0.0
11-21New Mexico (12.0)MWCN97-94L0%0.0
11-22Nebraska (48.0)B10N87-74W100%0.0
11-24Temple (175.0)AmerN87-66L0%0.0
11-27Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH85-73W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina (25.0)ACCH63-59W100%0.0
12-7Northeastern (222.0)CAAA69-74W100%0.0
12-15Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH84-62W100%0.0
12-18Chattanooga (243.0)SCH67-52W100%0.0
12-21LSU (83.0)SECA86-63L0%0.0
12-29Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH69-57W100%0.0
1-11Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA89-84L0%0.0
1-16UTSA (306.0)CUSAH78-65W100%0.0
1-18UTEP (103.0)CUSAH61-63L0%0.0
1-23North Texas (195.0)CUSAA76-65L0%0.0
1-25Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA63-70W100%0.0
1-30Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH75-66W100%0.0
2-1East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH67-74L0%0.0
2-6FIU (202.0)CUSAA78-73L0%0.0
2-8Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA82-71L0%0.0
2-13Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH84-60W100%0.0
2-15Tulane (223.0)CUSAH80-86L0%0.0
2-20Marshall (276.0)CUSAA62-68W100%0.0
2-22Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA62-64W100%0.0
2-27Rice (299.0)CUSAA60-61W100%0.0
3-2Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH58-67L0%0.0
3-6Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH53-55L0%0.0
3-12Charlotte (151.0)CUSAN70-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA25.9325.9351.8551.850.960.96
CharlotteCUSA3.963.9655.1755.170.410.41
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.933.9368.9768.971.491.49
Old DominionCUSA2.322.3250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA2.322.3278.1278.121.311.31
TulsaCUSA2.322.3265.6265.620.720.72
TulaneCUSA2.292.2948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA2.292.2930.0030.00-0.92-0.92
UTEPCUSA2.272.2766.6766.670.760.76
East CarolinaCUSA2.262.2642.8642.86-0.32-0.32
North TexasCUSA2.262.2642.8642.86-0.32-0.32
Southern MissCUSA2.262.2683.3383.331.511.51
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.242.2424.1424.14-1.16-1.16
FIUCUSA2.232.2344.4444.44-0.25-0.25
UTSACUSA2.232.2323.0823.08-1.20-1.20
RiceCUSA2.232.2318.5218.52-1.40-1.40
Georgia SouthernSC1.811.8140.0040.00-0.36-0.36
RutgersAmer1.811.8135.4835.48-0.53-0.53
NortheasternCAA1.811.8135.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Florida A&MMEAC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
ChattanoogaSC1.781.7853.5753.570.130.13
TempleAmer1.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
New MexicoMWC1.751.7581.2581.251.101.10
Alabama A&MSWAC1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
LSUSEC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
NebraskaB101.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
North CarolinaACC1.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
TroySB1.721.7232.1432.14-0.62-0.62
Georgia St.SB0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.220.2285.2985.290.160.16
CincinnatiAmer0.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
HoustonAmer0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
ElonSC0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
UCFAmer0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.140.1419.2319.23-0.09-0.09
FurmanSC0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
WoffordSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1446.1546.15-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
The CitadelSC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1134.6234.62-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0986.2186.210.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.090.0970.3770.370.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.090.0917.8617.86-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.060.06
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03