UAB

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	155.0
Current RPI:	155
Expected SOS:	187
Current SOS:	187
Current Record:	18-13
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	202
Expected OOC SOS:	304

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	155.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	H	96-67	W	100%
11-13	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	89-47	W	100%
11-20	Richmond (176.0)	A10	N	50-63	L	0%
11-21	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	N	96-91	L	0%
11-22	Iowa (157.0)	B10	N	85-95	L	0%
11-30	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	H	71-56	W	100%
12-5	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	78-90	W	100%
12-9	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	A	85-80	L	0%
12-16	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	90-58	W	100%
12-20	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	74-67	W	100%
12-23	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	74-57	W	100%
12-30	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	60-63	L	0%
1-4	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	44-75	W	100%
1-6	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	64-75	W	100%
1-11	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	86-75	W	100%
1-13	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	74-62	W	100%
1-18	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	77-69	L	0%
1-20	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	86-78	L	0%
1-25	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	85-78	W	100%
1-27	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	70-82	L	0%
2-1	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	64-76	W	100%
2-3	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	65-60	L	0%
2-8	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	60-67	L	0%
2-10	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	61-56	W	100%
2-15	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	73-60	L	0%
2-17	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	69-87	W	100%
2-24	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	79-54	L	0%
3-1	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	91-77	W	100%
3-3	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	101-73	W	100%
3-7	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	N	83-72	W	100%
3-8	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	N	98-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UAB	CUSA	26.23	26.23	56.30	56.30	3.30	3.30
Western Kentucky	CUSA	5.53	5.53	70.00	70.00	2.21	2.21
Marshall	CUSA	4.07	4.07	70.97	70.97	1.71	1.71
Southern Miss	CUSA	4.04	4.04	42.86	42.86	-0.58	-0.58
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	4.01	4.01	75.00	75.00	2.00	2.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	3.92	3.92	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	3.83	3.83	34.62	34.62	-1.18	-1.18
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.50	2.50	77.42	77.42	1.37	1.37
UTSA	CUSA	2.38	2.38	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
Charlotte	CUSA	2.37	2.37	18.52	18.52	-1.49	-1.49
FIU	CUSA	2.33	2.33	39.29	39.29	-0.50	-0.50
North Texas	CUSA	2.33	2.33	41.38	41.38	-0.40	-0.40
UTEP	CUSA	2.33	2.33	34.48	34.48	-0.72	-0.72
Rice	CUSA	2.28	2.28	17.86	17.86	-1.47	-1.47
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.72	1.72	10.00	10.00	-1.37	-1.37
Chattanooga	SC	1.69	1.69	26.67	26.67	-0.79	-0.79
Auburn	SEC	1.67	1.67	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Troy	SB	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	12.90	12.90	-1.24	-1.24
Memphis	Amer	1.64	1.64	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
Richmond	A10	1.64	1.64	35.48	35.48	-0.48	-0.48
New Orleans	Slnd	1.64	1.64	44.44	44.44	-0.18	-0.18
Buffalo	MAC	1.61	1.61	75.00	75.00	0.81	0.81
Iowa	B10	1.61	1.61	40.62	40.62	-0.30	-0.30
Jacksonville	ASun	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.25	0.25	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.19	0.19	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.18	0.18	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Michigan	B10	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.18	0.18	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.18	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
George Mason	A10	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
SMU	Amer	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01