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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:128.5
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:135
Current Record:10-7
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-769.30.58%
22-883.14.34%
21-998.013.00%
20-10113.422.71%
19-11129.526.11%
18-12146.218.84%
17-13163.29.62%
16-14180.53.50%
15-15199.01.13%
14-16213.90.13%
13-17230.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.2)SWACH86-66W100%0.0
11-14Furman (149.9)SCH74-84L0%0.0
11-17Troy (196.9)SBH74-51W100%0.0
11-21Kansas (7.1)B12A83-63L0%0.0
11-22George Washington (154.8)A10N81-74W100%0.0
11-27Saint Mary's (19.5)WCCN76-63L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (350.4)SWACH75-45W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (109.7)SECH70-74L0%0.0
12-7Stephen F. Austin (214.9)SlndA73-84W100%0.0
12-10Memphis (99.1)AmerA62-55L0%0.0
12-18Southern (267.5)SWACH75-74W100%0.0
12-21Texas (145.1)B12A96-60L0%0.0
1-1Middle Tennessee (39.8)CUSAA60-49L0%0.0
1-5North Texas (304.0)CUSAA52-54W100%0.0
1-7Rice (146.5)CUSAA81-88W100%0.0
1-12Western Kentucky (216.3)CUSAH72-54W100%0.0
1-14Marshall (93.3)CUSAH94-78W100%0.0
1-19Florida Atlantic (304.8)CUSAA0-072%6.6
1-21FIU (326.4)CUSAA0-074%7.2
1-26Louisiana Tech (135.8)CUSAH0-051%0.2
1-28Southern Miss (336.4)CUSAH0-096%19.6
2-2UTEP (326.3)CUSAA0-078%8.6
2-4UTSA (288.2)CUSAA0-075%7.5
2-9Charlotte (229.6)CUSAH0-081%9.7
2-11Old Dominion (136.4)CUSAH0-063%3.9
2-16Marshall (93.3)CUSAA0-039%-3.1
2-19Western Kentucky (216.3)CUSAA0-064%4.1
2-26Middle Tennessee (39.8)CUSAH0-041%-2.6
3-2Florida Atlantic (304.8)CUSAH0-087%12.8
3-4FIU (326.4)CUSAH0-088%13.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.4926.1458.6763.424.597.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.294.0281.2583.002.062.65
Western KentuckyCUSA3.113.9950.0047.100.00-0.23
FIUCUSA0.163.9712.5022.20-0.12-2.21
MarshallCUSA3.033.9658.8262.110.530.96
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.163.9621.4327.84-0.09-1.75
UTEPCUSA0.002.3618.7523.91-0.00-1.23
UTSACUSA0.002.3643.7538.80-0.00-0.53
Southern MissCUSA0.202.3620.0020.10-0.12-1.41
Old DominionCUSA0.352.3561.1163.010.080.61
CharlotteCUSA0.352.3543.7544.43-0.04-0.26
RiceCUSA3.232.3366.6768.401.080.86
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3062.5069.040.000.88
North TexasCUSA3.122.3028.5733.39-1.34-0.76
Alabama A&MSWAC3.111.846.6712.26-2.70-1.39
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.211.8118.7525.48-2.00-0.89
SouthernSWAC3.031.7840.0052.95-0.610.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.031.7338.4650.84-0.700.03
KansasB122.941.7294.1280.992.601.07
Saint Mary'sWCC3.021.7287.5087.042.261.27
TexasB122.941.7237.5033.82-0.74-0.56
TroySB3.031.7050.0049.760.00-0.01
George WashingtonA103.031.6952.9449.140.18-0.03
AuburnSEC2.941.6762.5053.430.740.11
FurmanSC2.941.6746.6753.23-0.200.11
MemphisAmer2.941.6770.5962.951.210.43
Jackson St.SWAC0.350.2831.2545.28-0.13-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.340.2818.7528.06-0.21-0.12
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.2617.6535.25-0.12-0.08
Texas TechB120.360.2276.4763.780.190.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.2021.4336.57-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.2025.0029.61-0.09-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.2050.0066.220.000.07
South AlabamaSB0.170.2043.7541.36-0.02-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.350.1953.3355.860.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.270.1711.1123.11-0.21-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.250.1737.5029.45-0.06-0.07
ToledoMAC0.250.1750.0051.640.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.340.1662.5057.280.090.02
OklahomaB120.250.1643.7536.61-0.03-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1568.7573.520.000.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1552.9455.240.010.02
HawaiiBW0.170.1540.0044.09-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.1553.3345.920.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.260.1423.0831.01-0.14-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.360.1468.7570.370.130.06
South CarolinaSEC0.080.1481.2572.930.050.06
OhioMAC0.250.1471.4369.670.110.05
BaylorB120.090.1493.7580.460.080.08
VCUA100.170.1477.7873.920.090.07
MissouriSEC0.260.1431.2526.61-0.10-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.1433.3333.23-0.08-0.05
MississippiSEC0.250.1458.8252.810.040.01
Oklahoma St.B120.250.1456.2553.900.030.01
TCUB120.170.1381.2565.210.110.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1260.0061.150.040.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.1225.0033.65-0.05-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1246.1553.13-0.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.1261.1156.560.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.370.1227.7829.47-0.16-0.05
TulaneAmer0.170.1123.5320.62-0.09-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1175.0074.760.090.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.1162.5060.080.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.1118.7520.57-0.05-0.07
LSUSEC0.000.1156.2539.400.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.160.1156.2555.710.020.01
BelmontOVC0.160.1173.3373.100.080.05
Iowa St.B120.170.1164.7161.910.050.03
Kansas St.B120.170.1176.4759.430.090.02
West VirginiaB120.090.1188.2484.630.070.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0955.5655.680.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0975.0063.150.040.02
ElonCAA0.000.0947.0649.68-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.180.0947.0640.37-0.01-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0927.7830.30-0.04-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.0925.0028.48-0.10-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0975.0058.080.000.01
NebraskaB100.170.0950.0043.370.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.170.0961.1158.650.040.01
ArkansasSEC0.190.0876.4768.380.100.03
KentuckySEC0.190.0888.2487.320.150.06
TulsaAmer0.190.0856.2551.250.020.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0812.5033.74-0.06-0.03
MercerSC0.180.0835.2944.06-0.05-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0818.7530.20-0.05-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.180.0847.0655.40-0.010.01
PittsburghACC0.170.0866.6753.190.060.01
Little RockSB0.090.0856.2551.280.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2486.430.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.170.0847.0643.82-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0864.7158.460.020.01
SienaMAAC0.250.0838.8945.72-0.06-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0862.5057.020.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.170.0837.5043.15-0.04-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0852.6353.220.000.01
UCFAmer0.080.0876.4766.360.040.03
UNLVMWC0.160.0850.0045.100.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0622.2230.94-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0644.4445.47-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0646.1551.22-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0623.5324.37-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.0630.7743.59-0.08-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0049.650.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.190.0617.6529.59-0.12-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0617.6515.00-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0658.8252.990.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.0623.0831.10-0.10-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0628.5731.64-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0637.5038.15-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.090.0668.4268.160.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0675.0076.810.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.06100.0096.910.090.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0656.2553.440.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0650.0048.000.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0688.2484.380.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0657.1453.400.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0638.8934.94-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0623.5321.79-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0650.0042.270.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.090.0664.7159.940.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0046.720.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.180.0614.2929.37-0.13-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0027.36-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0650.0058.430.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7563.230.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0640.0044.63-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0614.2915.94-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0633.3337.37-0.03-0.01
WoffordSC0.090.0626.6739.99-0.04-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0633.3330.18-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.090.0635.2930.57-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0647.3741.51-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0682.3576.960.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0688.8978.090.060.03
USC UpstateASun0.090.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0662.5062.550.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0655.5654.690.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0675.0076.040.040.03
MichiganB100.180.0666.6758.160.060.01
StanfordP120.170.0652.9447.220.01-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.0664.7170.610.050.02
AkronMAC0.080.0681.2573.540.050.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0664.7165.930.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.0643.7548.36-0.02-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0647.0644.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0631.2539.84-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0660.0072.720.020.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0662.5065.700.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0688.2484.300.070.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0543.7543.63-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0512.5028.47-0.06-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0564.7167.000.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0550.0042.110.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0564.7156.530.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0572.2271.210.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.170.0522.2236.06-0.09-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0578.9576.690.050.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0523.5328.53-0.04-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0517.6524.27-0.05-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0535.2937.74-0.02-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0555.5653.980.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.050.0014.42-0.08-0.04
WashingtonP120.080.0547.0642.27-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0330.7736.76-0.04-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.0326.6725.63-0.05-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0335.7136.22-0.03-0.01
UtahP120.110.0366.6764.720.040.01
DrexelCAA0.100.0335.2935.38-0.03-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0312.5020.01-0.07-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0364.7147.180.03-0.00
HartfordAE0.100.0331.5829.37-0.04-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0388.2471.840.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0326.3227.77-0.05-0.01
RutgersB100.100.0355.5643.070.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0356.2562.950.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0337.5036.25-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0320.0029.47-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0372.2266.070.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0356.2552.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0343.7550.72-0.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0049.550.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0343.7549.93-0.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0361.1157.840.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.090.0329.4138.91-0.04-0.01
NavyPat0.090.0341.1843.68-0.02-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0350.0051.420.000.00
NevadaMWC0.090.0383.3378.320.060.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0317.6521.39-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0313.3314.86-0.07-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0350.0040.930.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0373.3373.890.040.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0360.0054.070.020.00
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0316.6718.41-0.06-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0320.0024.58-0.05-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0321.4323.21-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.090.0361.1157.830.020.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0361.1162.970.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0383.3377.690.000.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0340.0037.09-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0345.0038.60-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0052.220.000.00
USCP120.090.0384.2172.840.060.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0342.8647.10-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0362.5055.530.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0350.0034.750.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0352.9454.280.010.00
DukeACC0.080.0377.7873.720.050.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0356.2559.170.010.00
FordhamA100.000.0335.2931.83-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0358.3361.490.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0366.6763.930.030.01
IowaB100.080.0357.8950.960.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0350.0051.780.000.00
La SalleA100.080.0366.6762.150.030.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0361.1159.210.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0323.5328.53-0.04-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0373.6873.940.040.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0378.9569.120.050.01
Penn St.B100.080.0361.1150.470.020.00
ProvidenceBE0.080.0365.0055.360.020.00
PurdueB100.090.0377.7876.220.050.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0329.4125.22-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0325.0031.95-0.04-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0364.7161.890.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0050.990.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0356.2553.010.000.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0338.8940.01-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0333.3333.47-0.03-0.01