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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:128.6
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:278
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-436.50.04%
25-545.10.09%
24-656.10.59%
23-765.22.16%
22-877.75.30%
21-990.19.95%
20-10103.915.18%
19-11119.618.84%
18-12136.017.44%
17-13153.114.06%
16-14171.48.90%
15-15191.24.84%
14-16210.01.58%
13-17228.10.78%
12-18242.10.20%
11-19261.00.03%
10-20252.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH86-66W100%0.0
11-14Furman (185.5)SCH74-84L0%0.0
11-17Troy (265.2)SBH74-51W100%0.0
11-21Kansas (7.5)B12A83-63L0%0.0
11-22George Washington (176.1)A10N81-74W100%0.0
11-27Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCN76-63L0%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH75-45W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (96.0)SECH0-050%-0.0
12-7Stephen F. Austin (172.6)SlndA0-055%1.6
12-10Memphis (120.6)AmerA0-033%-5.4
12-18Southern (238.0)SWACH0-085%12.2
12-21Texas (135.5)B12A0-030%-6.3
1-1Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAA0-032%-5.8
1-5North Texas (300.2)CUSAA0-080%10.3
1-7Rice (102.7)CUSAA0-040%-2.9
1-12Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAH0-086%13.0
1-14Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-065%4.5
1-19Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAA0-068%5.7
1-21FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-070%6.2
1-26Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAH0-057%2.2
1-28Southern Miss (316.2)CUSAH0-094%18.8
2-2UTEP (255.5)CUSAA0-067%5.1
2-4UTSA (302.7)CUSAA0-078%9.5
2-9Charlotte (177.2)CUSAH0-075%8.1
2-11Old Dominion (97.6)CUSAH0-057%2.2
2-16Marshall (88.7)CUSAA0-044%-1.7
2-19Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAA0-071%6.8
2-26Middle Tennessee (55.1)CUSAH0-051%0.4
3-2Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAH0-084%11.8
3-4FIU (267.5)CUSAH0-085%12.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA29.2326.1448.2861.59-1.016.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.004.0385.7174.050.001.94
Western KentuckyCUSA0.004.0042.8635.07-0.00-1.19
FIUCUSA0.003.9716.6734.51-0.00-1.23
MarshallCUSA0.003.9683.3360.610.000.84
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.003.9620.0035.21-0.00-1.17
UTSACUSA0.002.3728.5728.71-0.00-1.01
UTEPCUSA0.002.3725.0043.62-0.00-0.30
Old DominionCUSA0.002.3666.6766.600.000.78
CharlotteCUSA0.002.3566.6752.060.000.10
RiceCUSA0.002.3485.7169.340.000.90
Southern MissCUSA0.602.3333.3324.03-0.20-1.21
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.3140.0068.84-0.000.87
North TexasCUSA0.002.3040.0031.22-0.00-0.87
Alabama A&MSWAC7.141.840.0013.78-7.14-1.33
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7.651.810.0025.09-7.65-0.90
SouthernSWAC0.001.7825.0058.46-0.000.30
KansasB127.141.7283.3375.374.760.87
Saint Mary'sWCC7.141.72100.0088.657.141.33
TexasB120.001.7250.0035.110.00-0.51
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.001.7025.0057.21-0.000.24
TroySB7.141.7040.0033.38-1.43-0.56
George WashingtonA107.861.6966.6745.632.62-0.15
AuburnSEC0.001.6783.3355.370.000.18
FurmanSC7.141.670.0047.57-7.14-0.08
MemphisAmer0.001.6785.7159.490.000.32
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.290.0042.55-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.2814.2934.56-0.00-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.600.2616.6732.62-0.40-0.09
Texas TechB120.000.2285.7163.780.000.06
South AlabamaSB0.000.2083.3361.150.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.200.0032.39-0.00-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.2028.5734.18-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.2057.1467.020.000.07
Georgia St.SB0.000.2060.0067.410.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.170.0024.77-0.00-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.600.1766.6732.240.20-0.06
ToledoMAC0.000.1742.8650.36-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC1.730.1666.6754.380.580.01
OklahomaB120.000.1683.3351.920.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1550.0056.430.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.150.0037.92-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1550.0071.330.000.06
Texas St.SB0.000.1550.0043.310.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1457.1464.940.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.14100.0080.780.000.09
OhioMAC0.000.1480.0068.320.000.05
BaylorB120.000.14100.0074.460.000.07
VCUA100.000.1485.7178.150.000.08
MissouriSEC0.600.1450.0045.920.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1442.8646.78-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1471.4346.010.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1483.3356.560.000.02
TCUB120.000.13100.0059.480.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0058.600.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0034.01-0.00-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.12100.0069.770.000.05
HawaiiBW1.310.1250.0050.940.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.1285.7172.660.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.600.1214.2928.66-0.43-0.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1214.2926.81-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1150.0045.410.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.770.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1166.6769.810.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1116.6718.96-0.00-0.07
DavidsonA100.000.1183.3368.880.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1140.0061.37-0.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.970.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1185.7155.890.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.710.0975.0054.320.360.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0920.0032.60-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0971.4343.020.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0971.4365.740.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0983.3358.030.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0928.5727.50-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.06
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0039.200.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.090.0028.15-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.600.0983.3350.740.400.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.510.090.0034.23-0.51-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0960.0057.900.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0850.0053.050.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0814.2931.71-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.600.0842.8661.90-0.090.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0885.7180.960.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
SienaMAAC1.730.0828.5750.51-0.740.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6756.020.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0871.4363.570.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0883.3374.620.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0871.4349.590.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0714.2929.15-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0725.0030.93-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.190.0650.0043.490.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.600.0666.6772.440.200.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
StanfordP120.600.0675.0059.100.300.01
UNC AshevilleBSth1.220.0650.0064.840.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.050.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0540.0041.65-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0583.3376.370.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0557.1447.320.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.510.050.0039.35-0.51-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.32-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.630.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.600.0375.0064.960.300.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.600.0375.0070.470.300.01
PresbyterianBSth0.710.0333.3327.13-0.24-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.600.0340.0037.44-0.12-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
WinthropBSth0.710.0360.0070.500.140.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
DukeACC0.510.0387.5078.680.380.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.510.030.0043.04-0.51-0.00
IndianaB100.510.0383.3375.060.340.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Penn St.B100.510.0362.5043.960.13-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.01