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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:88.0
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:263
Current Record:25-6
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:123
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-688.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Auburn (175.0)SECA75-74L0%0.0
11-16Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH72-70W100%0.0
11-19Troy (293.0)SBA63-79W100%0.0
11-22Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH61-55W100%0.0
11-27Illinois (149.0)B10N72-58L0%0.0
11-28Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCN77-82L0%0.0
12-1Georgia St. (180.0)SBH64-57W100%0.0
12-5Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA61-74W100%0.0
12-13Seattle (287.0)WACH79-73W100%0.0
12-16USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH96-54W100%0.0
12-19South Florida (230.0)AmerA68-79W100%0.0
12-29Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH76-66W100%0.0
1-3Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH78-67W100%0.0
1-7UTSA (347.0)CUSAH104-82W100%0.0
1-9UTEP (215.0)CUSAH87-80W100%0.0
1-14Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA71-72W100%0.0
1-16Charlotte (234.0)CUSAA72-74W100%0.0
1-21Rice (279.0)CUSAH82-70W100%0.0
1-23North Texas (295.0)CUSAH78-57W100%0.0
1-28Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA69-62L0%0.0
1-30Marshall (128.0)CUSAA78-81W100%0.0
2-4FIU (270.0)CUSAH74-69W100%0.0
2-6Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH104-67W100%0.0
2-11Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA77-80W100%0.0
2-13Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA85-76L0%0.0
2-21Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA67-77W100%0.0
2-25Marshall (128.0)CUSAH95-91W100%0.0
2-27Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH71-67W100%0.0
3-3FIU (270.0)CUSAA60-77W100%0.0
3-5Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAA70-73W100%0.0
3-10Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH77-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.1726.1781.5681.5616.5216.52
Western KentuckyCUSA5.455.4548.2848.28-0.19-0.19
Middle TennesseeCUSA4.054.0575.8675.862.092.09
MarshallCUSA3.923.9254.8454.840.380.38
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.873.8724.1424.14-2.00-2.00
FIUCUSA3.853.8539.2939.29-0.82-0.82
Old DominionCUSA2.522.5264.7164.710.740.74
UTEPCUSA2.372.3758.0658.060.380.38
CharlotteCUSA2.362.3643.7543.75-0.30-0.30
UTSACUSA2.322.3213.7913.79-1.68-1.68
North TexasCUSA2.312.3134.4834.48-0.72-0.72
Southern MissCUSA2.262.2626.9226.92-1.05-1.05
Louisiana TechCUSA2.242.2468.9768.970.850.85
RiceCUSA2.232.2334.4834.48-0.69-0.69
Georgia St.SB1.771.7751.8551.850.070.07
TroySB1.751.7525.0025.00-0.88-0.88
Virginia TechACC1.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
Jacksonville St.OVC1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
AuburnSEC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
South FloridaAmer1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
IllinoisB101.611.6142.4242.42-0.24-0.24
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
SeattleWAC1.611.6144.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.611.6185.1985.191.141.14
USC UpstateASun1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
Texas St.SB0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.180.1844.1244.12-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
ElonCAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
UMKCWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01