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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:224.5
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:202
Current Record:3-7
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11104.50.02%
18-12113.40.05%
17-13126.00.37%
16-14140.01.18%
15-15157.63.28%
14-16174.97.63%
13-17192.113.02%
12-18210.518.26%
11-19228.319.39%
10-20246.516.16%
9-21263.212.01%
8-22279.35.52%
7-23291.92.32%
6-24303.90.63%
5-25315.00.10%
4-26318.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Louisiana Monroe (208.5)SBH65-74L0%0.0
11-20South Florida (169.1)AmerH71-73L0%0.0
11-23Jackson St. (284.8)SWACH58-50W100%0.0
11-26Wisconsin (5.8)B10N43-72L0%0.0
11-27Florida (39.0)SECN56-47L0%0.0
11-28UCLA (69.3)P12N76-88L0%0.0
12-4Morehead St. (209.5)OVCH58-48W100%0.0
12-7Illinois St. (70.2)MVCH74-78L0%0.0
12-14UNC Asheville (224.1)BSthH79-71W100%0.0
12-18LSU (67.0)SECH70-79L0%0.0
12-22Chattanooga (206.7)SCA0-036%-4.3
12-27North Carolina (11.6)ACCA0-01%-25.9
1-4Middle Tennessee (203.3)CUSAA0-035%-4.5
1-8Florida Atlantic (175.4)CUSAH0-056%1.8
1-10FIU (154.7)CUSAH0-055%1.5
1-15Louisiana Tech (111.8)CUSAA0-015%-11.9
1-17Southern Miss (284.5)CUSAA0-058%2.4
1-22Charlotte (79.6)CUSAH0-036%-4.3
1-24Old Dominion (48.1)CUSAH0-028%-6.8
1-29UTEP (62.7)CUSAA0-010%-14.8
1-31UTSA (263.1)CUSAA0-042%-2.3
2-5Louisiana Tech (111.8)CUSAH0-039%-3.2
2-7Southern Miss (284.5)CUSAH0-083%11.1
2-12North Texas (242.0)CUSAA0-043%-2.2
2-14Rice (284.0)CUSAA0-047%-0.7
2-19Western Kentucky (154.0)CUSAH0-055%1.6
2-21Marshall (214.1)CUSAH0-059%2.6
2-28Middle Tennessee (203.3)CUSAH0-064%4.2
3-5Florida Atlantic (175.4)CUSAA0-028%-7.0
3-7FIU (154.7)CUSAA0-027%-7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA27.7426.1617.3133.12-18.14-8.83
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.004.0744.4445.30-0.00-0.38
Louisiana TechCUSA0.454.0472.7367.400.211.40
Southern MissCUSA0.234.0242.8626.88-0.03-1.86
FIUCUSA0.003.9844.4450.46-0.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.003.9750.0052.270.000.18
MarshallCUSA0.232.4025.0038.84-0.11-0.53
UTEPCUSA0.002.3766.6772.070.001.05
UTSACUSA0.002.3742.8636.87-0.00-0.62
Old DominionCUSA0.532.3788.8981.640.411.50
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.3655.5649.670.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.362.3460.0064.610.070.69
North TexasCUSA0.002.3142.8636.04-0.00-0.64
RiceCUSA0.002.3116.6725.27-0.00-1.14
Jackson St.SWAC5.281.8120.0046.11-3.17-0.14
LSUSEC5.001.8177.7862.912.780.47
FloridaSEC5.421.7855.5663.760.600.49
Morehead St.OVC5.001.7520.0047.81-3.00-0.08
ChattanoogaSC0.231.7544.4451.12-0.030.04
North CarolinaACC0.481.7270.0070.730.190.71
WisconsinB105.001.7090.0088.014.001.29
Illinois St.MVC5.001.6962.5063.031.250.44
Louisiana MonroeSB5.251.6920.0043.18-3.15-0.23
South FloridaAmer5.231.6937.5042.88-1.31-0.24
UCLAP125.001.6970.0055.862.000.20
UNC AshevilleBSth5.001.6916.6747.00-3.33-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.000.180.0036.67-0.00-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.360.1837.5038.60-0.09-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.280.1766.6754.660.090.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.17100.0085.330.000.12
SouthernSWAC0.000.160.0033.84-0.00-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.510.1681.8264.110.320.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.1562.5071.290.000.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.640.1557.1470.590.090.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.280.1566.6762.620.090.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1462.5059.510.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.230.1442.8652.71-0.030.01
SamfordSC0.000.1433.3331.58-0.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.760.1410.0018.58-0.60-0.09
BelmontOVC0.000.1460.0062.970.000.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.1455.5661.790.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.360.1462.5064.260.090.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.140.0018.94-0.45-0.09
MississippiSEC0.000.1470.0052.610.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1444.4436.35-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0094.790.000.12
TroySB0.000.1233.3339.46-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1242.8655.64-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.1210.0027.42-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.250.1237.5050.40-0.060.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.580.1271.4363.890.250.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.360.1255.5638.600.04-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.1240.0028.86-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.1255.5634.940.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.230.120.008.63-0.23-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.1271.4359.920.100.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0039.41-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0016.85-0.00-0.07
William & MaryCAA0.250.1157.1456.750.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.230.1177.7869.190.130.04
TempleAmer0.000.1163.6455.600.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1190.9153.850.000.01
Miami FLACC0.250.1190.0075.520.200.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1177.7865.390.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0050.330.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0920.0041.46-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0937.5034.19-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5047.87-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0937.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.420.0930.0039.44-0.17-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0971.4348.860.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0940.0050.78-0.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.420.090.0037.73-0.42-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0936.3633.67-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0049.620.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.360.0950.0038.000.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0972.7351.560.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0988.8963.660.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0877.7855.460.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.0836.3638.88-0.06-0.02
DrakeMVC0.230.0820.0019.99-0.14-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.230.0825.0033.17-0.11-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0822.2237.75-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0860.0056.560.000.01
AmericanPat0.230.0860.0065.400.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0877.7871.960.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0877.7864.730.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.01-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0028.26-0.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.230.0890.0084.680.180.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0850.0057.510.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6757.800.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0887.5054.790.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0037.510.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.0066.690.000.03
DukeACC0.230.08100.0087.140.230.06
GeorgetownBE0.480.0866.6759.460.160.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.350.000.00
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.590.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0046.150.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0811.1144.62-0.19-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.400.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.59-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.410.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0034.77-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.57-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.810.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.13-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.400.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.99-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.59-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0051.050.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.71-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0662.5066.700.070.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.22-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.240.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.600.000.01
Texas TechB120.250.0688.8955.910.190.01
Seton HallBE0.560.0690.0067.260.440.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1144.04-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.280.0670.0071.420.110.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.550.000.03
Green BayHorz0.450.0675.0078.480.230.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1828.02-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0071.820.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.530.0628.5742.17-0.23-0.01
West VirginiaB120.250.0690.0066.940.200.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.800.000.01
HofstraCAA0.510.0577.7878.540.280.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0533.3362.92-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0520.0038.24-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.250.0566.6745.670.08-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0550.0044.900.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0566.6758.240.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0587.5077.020.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.008.88-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0550.0039.340.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0544.4431.58-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6743.780.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0544.4470.08-0.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.620.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.450.0577.7867.290.250.02
OregonP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0575.0057.570.000.01
USCP120.000.0560.0036.120.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0577.7879.480.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.12-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.420.0370.0058.600.170.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.180.000.01
TexasB120.000.0390.0081.860.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.68-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.500.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3354.74-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.51-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.050.000.02
DePaulBE0.280.0360.0034.110.06-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.64-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.230.0330.0031.57-0.09-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.230.0375.0050.750.110.00
Utah St.MWC0.280.0355.5650.970.030.00
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.960.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0345.4544.07-0.03-0.00
DetroitHorz0.280.0344.4448.88-0.03-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5659.990.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.090.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.230.0375.0068.680.110.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.230.0390.0090.940.180.02
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
KansasB120.250.0388.8969.390.190.01
Long Beach St.BW0.230.0340.0050.07-0.050.00
MarquetteBE0.230.0355.5647.870.03-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
MassachusettsA100.250.0360.0055.630.050.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.0325.0049.09-0.13-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.150.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.0333.3334.28-0.08-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.230.0322.2228.69-0.13-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0350.0074.000.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.230.0354.5557.300.020.00
St. BonaventureA100.230.0375.0065.410.110.01
UC RiversideBW0.230.0342.8643.10-0.03-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.250.0372.7367.180.110.01