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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:140.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:55
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.77%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1380.30.03%
15-1494.90.80%
14-15106.74.62%
13-16119.215.63%
12-17132.628.48%
11-18147.231.12%
10-19163.115.92%
9-20178.93.39%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Creighton (21.0)MVCH60-70L0%0.0
11-20Murray St. (30.1)OVCH55-62L0%0.0
11-22Troy (274.9)SBH71-59W100%0.0
11-25Wichita St. (17.4)MVCA68-46L0%0.0
11-27Tennessee Martin (321.8)OVCH54-59L0%0.0
11-30South Alabama (196.0)SBA55-47L0%0.0
12-3Kent St. (84.8)MACA57-48L0%0.0
12-7Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBH66-56W100%0.0
12-20Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)CAAA68-49L0%0.0
12-22Jacksonville (285.8)ASunH70-65W100%0.0
12-28George Washington (196.4)A10A49-56W100%0.0
12-31Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH92-58W100%0.0
1-3Florida (14.9)SECA79-61L0%0.0
1-7Memphis (25.8)CUSAH59-62L0%0.0
1-11Marshall (61.3)CUSAH59-61L0%0.0
1-14Southern Mississippi (15.8)CUSAA59-55L0%0.0
1-18Rice (177.4)CUSAA60-61W100%0.0
1-21Central Florida (72.7)CUSAH41-48L0%0.0
1-25Marshall (61.3)CUSAA49-56W100%0.0
1-28East Carolina (158.4)CUSAH66-73L0%0.0
2-1Houston (233.1)CUSAH80-69W100%0.0
2-4Texas El Paso (178.1)CUSAA60-61W100%0.0
2-8Southern Mississippi (15.8)CUSAH0-033%-4.8
2-11Memphis (25.8)CUSAA0-09%-14.6
2-15Southern Methodist (214.4)CUSAA0-050%0.1
2-18Tulane (174.9)CUSAH0-056%1.7
2-25East Carolina (158.4)CUSAA0-033%-4.8
2-29Tulsa (105.7)CUSAH0-047%-0.7
3-3Central Florida (72.7)CUSAA0-026%-7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.2626.1939.0938.92-5.73-5.80
Southern MississippiCUSA2.774.1985.0082.091.942.69
MemphisCUSA2.704.1668.1869.860.981.65
MarshallCUSA4.814.1260.0060.440.960.86
Central FloridaCUSA2.604.1170.0065.021.041.24
East CarolinaCUSA2.594.1041.1838.08-0.46-0.98
TulsaCUSA0.472.3960.8759.270.100.44
TulaneCUSA0.492.3661.9059.140.120.43
Texas El PasoCUSA2.602.3345.4544.80-0.24-0.24
Southern MethodistCUSA0.322.3338.1037.44-0.08-0.59
HoustonCUSA2.542.3350.0046.280.00-0.17
RiceCUSA2.542.3350.0048.180.00-0.08
South AlabamaSB2.601.9450.0050.990.000.04
Murray St.OVC2.481.90100.0094.342.481.68
Middle TennesseeSB2.541.8986.9687.791.881.43
TroySB2.481.8530.0031.38-0.99-0.69
Tennessee MartinOVC2.431.820.006.43-2.43-1.59
CreightonMVC2.321.8186.9684.901.721.27
Wichita St.MVC2.321.8181.8279.721.481.08
Alabama A&MSWAC2.331.7918.7528.23-1.45-0.78
FloridaSEC2.321.7581.8276.891.480.94
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.321.7579.1777.331.350.96
George WashingtonA102.321.7536.3633.19-0.63-0.59
JacksonvilleASun2.321.7518.1822.78-1.48-0.95
Kent St.MAC2.271.7270.0067.950.910.62
BelmontASun0.500.3369.5773.280.200.15
Western KentuckySB0.260.3134.7834.48-0.08-0.10
Austin PeayOVC0.300.2733.3335.97-0.10-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.2216.6723.02-0.15-0.12
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.2119.0525.52-0.10-0.10
Florida AtlanticSB0.160.1936.3639.72-0.04-0.04
Florida InternationalSB0.200.1933.3337.16-0.07-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.1956.5253.100.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.210.1937.5038.33-0.05-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.260.1954.1754.750.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.160.1960.0058.290.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.210.1834.7838.42-0.06-0.04
CharlotteA100.160.1850.0049.450.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.250.1843.4843.82-0.03-0.02
AkronMAC0.250.1868.1867.910.090.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.210.1869.5768.900.080.07
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1862.5061.500.050.04
TennesseeSEC0.150.1745.4544.66-0.01-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.170.1645.0046.13-0.02-0.01
DenverSB0.210.1670.8372.230.090.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1647.6247.18-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.1543.4844.25-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.210.1572.7371.710.090.07
AlabamaSEC0.210.1568.1869.100.080.06
StetsonASun0.150.1531.8231.31-0.06-0.06
OhioMAC0.210.1581.8277.200.130.08
SyracuseBE0.200.1595.8392.010.190.12
MississippiSEC0.150.1563.6456.710.040.02
BradleyMVC0.240.1524.0024.86-0.13-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1554.1757.200.010.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1330.0037.30-0.07-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.1317.3924.41-0.12-0.07
NC GreensboroSC0.160.1334.7833.46-0.05-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.160.1352.3852.860.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1333.3334.47-0.05-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.1278.2672.340.120.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1233.3337.25-0.05-0.03
High PointBSth0.160.1231.8232.75-0.06-0.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1257.1449.540.02-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1266.6760.800.030.03
DrakeMVC0.140.1252.1750.090.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1245.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1262.5062.060.040.03
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1256.5254.220.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1234.7832.06-0.04-0.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1239.1336.10-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1180.9577.380.060.06
GramblingSWAC0.120.1015.0015.73-0.08-0.07
CampbellBSth0.110.1056.0055.650.010.01
MassachusettsA100.110.1073.9168.580.050.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1050.0058.160.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.108.708.99-0.04-0.08
North TexasSB0.160.1050.0050.010.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1060.8759.760.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.0918.1821.13-0.10-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.110.0939.1342.12-0.02-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.160.0957.1460.750.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.0930.0034.15-0.04-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.160.0945.4546.99-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.160.0959.0957.280.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0938.1042.78-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0958.3359.980.010.02
HarvardIvy0.100.0990.4887.910.080.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0920.0019.96-0.06-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.0920.8320.60-0.06-0.05
MichiganB100.120.0972.7366.810.050.03
TempleA100.100.0977.2775.060.060.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0950.0048.900.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.098.7011.67-0.04-0.07
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0942.8643.45-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.160.0965.2265.170.050.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0930.4331.43-0.02-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0947.6248.82-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0941.1842.61-0.02-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0970.8371.640.020.04
North FloridaASun0.100.0945.8346.68-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.100.0954.5548.600.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.150.0940.0040.18-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0962.5062.490.010.02
LouisvilleBE0.100.0978.2672.660.060.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0969.5765.870.040.03
RichmondA100.090.0950.0048.490.00-0.00
XavierA100.100.0865.2263.740.030.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0735.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0772.2271.970.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0734.7838.77-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0738.8943.93-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0731.8242.13-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahSum0.110.0745.4544.30-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0650.0051.730.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0640.0041.30-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0626.3229.71-0.05-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0660.8760.960.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0668.1863.990.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0617.3920.97-0.04-0.04
Texas St.Slnd0.110.0622.2227.62-0.06-0.03
LamarSlnd0.100.0661.9067.230.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0659.0957.930.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.0625.0028.52-0.05-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.410.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0668.4266.450.020.02
CincinnatiBE0.100.0669.5765.470.040.02
IonaMAAC0.100.0679.1780.100.060.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0655.0054.480.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0654.5556.090.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.100.0650.0052.930.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0669.5765.150.020.02
Texas A&MB120.100.0652.3846.150.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.100.064.769.95-0.09-0.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0682.6181.440.060.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0645.4540.70-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0627.7829.58-0.00-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0676.1975.940.030.03
Kansas St.B120.100.0672.7368.280.040.02
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0656.5248.810.01-0.00
George MasonCAA0.000.0676.0072.500.000.03
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0666.6769.690.030.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0632.0035.39-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0695.8392.570.000.05
Miami FLACC0.050.0665.0060.020.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0668.0070.030.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0640.9139.56-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.064.005.26-0.04-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0612.5013.44-0.07-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0325.0037.58-0.03-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0356.5253.770.010.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.000.0390.9187.740.000.03
Texas TechB120.050.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9168.430.030.01
NavyPat0.000.039.5213.19-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0325.0023.75-0.00-0.02
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0359.0954.700.010.00
TexasB120.050.0360.8761.370.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.000.0319.0524.61-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
DavidsonSC0.000.0376.1976.760.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.000.0339.1344.52-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.760.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.05-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0352.3857.860.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0359.0956.350.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0371.4373.350.000.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.040.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01