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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:130.0
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:108
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-15130.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH65-74L0%0.0
11-20South Florida (273.0)AmerH71-73L0%0.0
11-23Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH58-50W100%0.0
11-26Wisconsin (4.0)B10N43-72L0%0.0
11-27Florida (72.0)SECN56-47L0%0.0
11-28UCLA (48.0)P12N76-88L0%0.0
12-4Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH58-48W100%0.0
12-7Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH74-78L0%0.0
12-14UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH79-71W100%0.0
12-18LSU (57.0)SECH70-79L0%0.0
12-22Chattanooga (112.0)SCA83-67L0%0.0
12-27North Carolina (11.0)ACCA89-58L0%0.0
1-4Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA49-54W100%0.0
1-8Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH66-57W100%0.0
1-10FIU (217.0)CUSAH70-53W100%0.0
1-15Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA74-71L0%0.0
1-17Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA56-63W100%0.0
1-22Charlotte (211.0)CUSAH81-76W100%0.0
1-24Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAH81-68W100%0.0
1-29UTEP (78.0)CUSAA71-69L0%0.0
1-31UTSA (237.0)CUSAA57-65W100%0.0
2-5Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAH80-60W100%0.0
2-7Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH78-68W100%0.0
2-12North Texas (224.0)CUSAA67-64L0%0.0
2-14Rice (247.0)CUSAA82-73L0%0.0
2-19Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH71-66W100%0.0
2-21Marshall (296.0)CUSAH72-54W100%0.0
2-28Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH100-95W100%0.0
3-5Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA62-59L0%0.0
3-7FIU (217.0)CUSAA70-66L0%0.0
3-12Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAN53-52W100%0.0
3-13Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAN62-72W100%0.0
3-14Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAN73-60W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UAB's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UAB's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UAB.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UABCUSA26.3026.3051.8051.800.950.95
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.335.3358.0658.060.860.86
Louisiana TechCUSA5.255.2579.3179.313.083.08
FIUCUSA3.763.7644.8344.83-0.39-0.39
Southern MissCUSA3.743.7428.0028.00-1.64-1.64
Western KentuckyCUSA3.713.7164.2964.291.061.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA3.693.6924.0024.00-1.92-1.92
UTEPCUSA2.342.3467.7467.740.830.83
MarshallCUSA2.292.2931.0331.03-0.87-0.87
Old DominionCUSA2.282.2880.0080.001.371.37
UTSACUSA2.272.2744.4444.44-0.25-0.25
CharlotteCUSA2.262.2645.1645.16-0.22-0.22
RiceCUSA2.242.2432.1432.14-0.80-0.80
North TexasCUSA2.172.1739.2939.29-0.46-0.46
Jackson St.SWAC1.671.6735.4835.48-0.48-0.48
LSUSEC1.641.6467.7467.740.580.58
Morehead St.OVC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC1.611.6146.8846.88-0.10-0.10
ChattanoogaSC1.601.6065.5265.520.500.50
North CarolinaACC1.561.5667.6567.650.550.55
WisconsinB101.541.5490.9190.911.261.26
Illinois St.MVC1.541.5461.2961.290.350.35
South FloridaAmer1.541.5423.3323.33-0.82-0.82
UNC AshevilleBSth1.541.5444.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Louisiana MonroeSB1.541.5457.1457.140.220.22
UCLAP121.541.5459.3859.380.290.29
South AlabamaSB0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.190.1975.0075.000.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.190.1983.3383.330.130.13
SouthernSWAC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
BelmontOVC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
AuburnSEC0.160.1641.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1567.8667.860.050.05
SamfordSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
Georgia St.SB0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
TroySB0.110.1129.6329.63-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
AmericanPat0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
CreightonBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MichiganB100.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
NebraskaB100.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
VirginiaACC0.040.0490.6290.620.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01