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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:274.9
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:62
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-4
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13115.00.01%
14-14151.20.06%
13-15166.20.22%
12-16184.50.90%
11-17203.32.05%
10-18222.15.86%
9-19241.211.14%
8-20258.716.63%
7-21276.019.65%
6-22291.318.53%
5-23303.814.03%
4-24315.17.41%
3-25324.82.75%
2-26331.10.62%
1-27338.20.12%
0-28345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Penn St. (147.7)B10A73-54L0%0.0
11-20Maryland (59.5)B10A66-50L0%0.0
11-23UMass Lowell (263.7)AEH57-64L0%0.0
11-29Maryland Eastern Shore (324.0)MEACH0-079%9.9
12-1Siena (147.2)MAACH0-037%-4.0
12-10Monmouth (168.1)MAACH0-041%-2.9
12-14St. John's (110.4)BEA0-09%-15.9
12-22Manhattan (185.5)MAACA0-021%-9.7
12-28Howard (296.8)MEACH0-069%6.0
12-31South Carolina St. (288.1)MEACH0-072%6.9
1-4VCU (38.7)A10H0-014%-12.8
1-7Rhode Island (99.7)A10A0-011%-15.0
1-10Dayton (42.8)A10H0-013%-13.3
1-14Saint Joseph's (204.6)A10A0-027%-7.2
1-17La Salle (112.0)A10A0-014%-13.0
1-22George Washington (47.9)A10H0-011%-14.5
1-28Rhode Island (99.7)A10H0-026%-7.8
2-1Dayton (42.8)A10A0-04%-20.5
2-4Massachusetts (53.0)A10H0-020%-9.9
2-7Saint Louis (120.9)A10H0-029%-6.8
2-11Richmond (59.8)A10A0-06%-18.4
2-15Saint Joseph's (204.6)A10H0-050%-0.1
2-18George Mason (233.4)A10A0-033%-5.2
2-21Davidson (110.6)A10A0-011%-14.6
2-25La Salle (112.0)A10H0-031%-5.8
2-28Massachusetts (53.0)A10A0-08%-17.1
3-4Duquesne (151.0)A10H0-034%-4.9
3-7St. Bonaventure (146.1)A10A0-015%-12.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1030.4226.160.0020.89-30.42-15.23
MassachusettsA100.004.3480.0060.270.000.89
La SalleA100.004.31100.0052.640.000.23
Rhode IslandA101.674.29100.0057.451.670.64
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.2850.0036.190.00-1.18
DaytonA100.004.2275.0071.680.001.83
DuquesneA100.002.61100.0054.210.000.22
St. BonaventureA100.002.6066.6752.270.000.12
Saint LouisA100.002.5366.6756.550.000.33
RichmondA100.002.4966.6765.100.000.75
VCUA100.002.4975.0066.960.000.84
George MasonA100.002.4920.0020.10-0.00-1.49
George WashingtonA100.002.4966.6773.950.001.19
DavidsonA100.002.4650.0052.550.000.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.0116.6730.33-0.00-0.79
ManhattanMAAC0.001.9925.0051.32-0.000.05
SienaMAAC0.001.9933.3359.99-0.000.40
MonmouthMAAC0.001.9450.0054.800.000.19
HowardMEAC0.001.940.0038.53-0.00-0.44
Penn St.B1016.671.9175.0042.068.33-0.30
UMass LowellAE16.671.8950.0039.400.00-0.40
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.880.0034.91-0.00-0.57
MarylandB1016.671.87100.0065.5216.670.58
St. John'sBE0.001.79100.0050.550.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2733.3324.20-0.00-0.14
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2766.6756.820.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.2775.0073.930.000.13
MaristMAAC0.000.240.0033.80-0.00-0.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2466.6766.090.000.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.240.0028.50-0.00-0.10
VillanovaBE0.000.24100.0073.380.000.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2233.3344.26-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.21100.0074.230.000.10
RutgersB100.000.2166.6735.400.00-0.06
NJITind1.670.1920.0027.91-1.00-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.000.19100.0071.170.000.08
VermontAE0.000.1833.3358.52-0.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC1.670.180.0041.06-1.67-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1840.0033.57-0.00-0.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1850.0047.540.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1666.6752.810.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.160.0038.08-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1525.0039.30-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy1.670.1533.3337.47-0.56-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1540.0038.53-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1520.0035.62-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.150.0024.67-0.00-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1340.0034.21-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0029.05-0.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.1320.0044.69-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1333.3347.25-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0029.07-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0022.66-0.00-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.120.0069.16-0.000.05
Ohio St.B101.670.12100.0073.811.670.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1280.0074.980.000.06
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0052.920.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1266.6762.260.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0075.310.000.06
BrownIvy0.000.1020.0037.46-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1050.0054.870.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0933.3364.13-0.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0940.0053.80-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0021.49-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6751.570.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0036.280.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0065.090.000.03
CharlotteCUSA1.670.0975.0065.610.830.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0034.81-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3350.07-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3360.92-0.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0038.810.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0045.75-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0950.0032.050.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0071.240.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0042.98-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0980.0057.960.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0975.0073.300.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0055.84-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0059.570.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.620.000.06
KansasB120.000.0766.6758.820.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0054.250.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.13-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0040.470.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.71-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.46-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3365.20-0.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0031.710.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3344.46-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0059.940.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.130.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.740.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0035.180.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0055.630.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0080.240.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0034.020.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6756.000.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.32-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0666.6746.440.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0633.3337.04-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0620.0035.82-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.420.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0043.12-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.920.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.590.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0058.710.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0625.0038.68-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0666.6764.880.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.790.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0051.910.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.000.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0066.800.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6732.480.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0055.660.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3343.21-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC2.080.060.0031.34-2.08-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.880.000.02
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.030.000.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0070.020.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0041.460.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0675.0062.270.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.810.00-0.02
WagnerNEC2.080.060.0042.28-2.08-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0074.040.000.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.730.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.290.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0072.950.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.43-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.950.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.67-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0070.800.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0042.83-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC1.670.0333.3330.55-0.56-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0062.840.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0033.27-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0047.530.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.180.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.070.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6759.480.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0020.52-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.500.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.03-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0047.380.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0325.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.27-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.400.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0366.6758.810.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.14-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.470.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.95-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3350.01-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.60-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0065.950.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.110.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.290.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.110.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6757.340.000.00
Arizona St.P122.080.0375.0056.871.040.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.990.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0058.760.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0033.06-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0029.78-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.770.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0041.580.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0032.210.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0065.370.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.48-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0069.590.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.460.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0069.360.000.01
USCP121.670.0340.0028.54-0.33-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0045.520.00-0.00