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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:290.0
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:158
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:231


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22290.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Miami OH (159.0)MACH54-55L0%0.0
11-13LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECH81-68W100%0.0
11-17Florida St. (54.0)ACCN43-67L0%0.0
11-19Tulane (175.0)AmerN55-63L0%0.0
11-26Manhattan (228.0)MAACH70-57W100%0.0
11-29East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH77-82L0%0.0
12-2Maine (338.0)AEH67-66W100%0.0
12-6Harvard (117.0)IvyH45-47L0%0.0
12-9St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH76-68W100%0.0
12-12Rutgers (203.0)B10A75-63L0%0.0
12-21Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH79-69W100%0.0
12-23West Virginia (27.0)B12A86-69L0%0.0
12-30VCU (135.0)A10A76-63L0%0.0
1-3Richmond (176.0)A10H69-65W100%0.0
1-6Duquesne (259.0)A10H41-64L0%0.0
1-10St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A77-61L0%0.0
1-14Davidson (47.0)A10H45-75L0%0.0
1-17La Salle (202.0)A10A75-67L0%0.0
1-20Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A68-46L0%0.0
1-24Rhode Island (19.0)A10H58-78L0%0.0
1-27Massachusetts (240.0)A10H82-69W100%0.0
2-3Saint Louis (148.0)A10A73-50L0%0.0
2-7George Mason (201.0)A10H67-66W100%0.0
2-10Duquesne (259.0)A10A57-80W100%0.0
2-14Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10H55-71L0%0.0
2-17Dayton (146.0)A10A80-70L0%0.0
2-21Davidson (47.0)A10A76-52L0%0.0
2-24La Salle (202.0)A10H60-73L0%0.0
2-28George Washington (195.0)A10A72-56L0%0.0
3-3VCU (135.0)A10H58-83L0%0.0
3-7George Washington (195.0)A10N78-72L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.0826.0822.3022.30-14.45-14.45
George WashingtonA103.933.9341.9441.94-0.63-0.63
Saint Joseph'sA103.883.8846.6746.67-0.26-0.26
DavidsonA103.853.8563.3363.331.031.03
DuquesneA103.833.8350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA103.833.8351.6151.610.120.12
La SalleA103.803.8036.6736.67-1.01-1.01
Rhode IslandA102.392.3977.4277.421.311.31
MassachusettsA102.372.3740.6240.62-0.44-0.44
St. BonaventureA102.342.3477.4277.421.281.28
Saint LouisA102.342.3448.3948.39-0.08-0.08
George MasonA102.342.3450.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA102.342.3438.7138.71-0.53-0.53
DaytonA102.282.2843.3343.33-0.30-0.30
HarvardIvy1.761.7655.1755.170.180.18
St. Francis NYNEC1.761.7639.2939.29-0.38-0.38
LIU BrooklynNEC1.751.7553.1253.120.110.11
Florida St.ACC1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
TulaneAmer1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
MaineAE1.691.6913.7913.79-1.22-1.22
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Miami OHMAC1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
RutgersB101.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
East Tennessee St.SC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Florida A&MMEAC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
West VirginiaB121.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
TempleAmer0.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
PennIvy0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
VMISC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Miami FLACC0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
BucknellPat0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
VirginiaACC0.170.1793.9493.940.150.15
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.130.139.689.68-0.10-0.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.126.676.67-0.11-0.11
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
TexasB120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
ToledoMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
SienaMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01