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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:176.0
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:168
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:349



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13176.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (105.0)SBA77-72L0%0.0
11-21Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH85-62W100%0.0
11-24Colgate (241.0)PatH84-58W100%0.0
11-28Manhattan (229.0)MAACH87-64W100%0.0
12-2St. John's (246.0)BEH73-57W100%0.0
12-5Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH86-54W100%0.0
12-8LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH89-84W100%0.0
12-13Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH92-55W100%0.0
12-19Maine (317.0)AEH70-53W100%0.0
12-22Boston College (250.0)ACCN55-64L0%0.0
1-3George Washington (68.0)A10A69-63L0%0.0
1-6La Salle (232.0)A10H66-61W100%0.0
1-10Richmond (121.0)A10H82-93L0%0.0
1-13VCU (37.0)A10A88-54L0%0.0
1-16Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A80-55L0%0.0
1-20George Mason (201.0)A10H73-62W100%0.0
1-24Dayton (21.0)A10H50-64L0%0.0
1-27Rhode Island (119.0)A10A79-63L0%0.0
1-30Massachusetts (171.0)A10A72-78W100%0.0
2-6Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H60-82L0%0.0
2-10St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H72-76L0%0.0
2-13Richmond (121.0)A10A71-67L0%0.0
2-17Massachusetts (171.0)A10H76-66W100%0.0
2-20Saint Louis (206.0)A10A76-68L0%0.0
2-24La Salle (232.0)A10A53-56W100%0.0
2-27Davidson (64.0)A10H91-82W100%0.0
3-2Duquesne (162.0)A10A69-78W100%0.0
3-5Rhode Island (119.0)A10H64-61W100%0.0
3-10Richmond (121.0)A10N55-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.1726.1750.4250.420.220.22
RichmondA105.745.7444.8344.83-0.59-0.59
MassachusettsA104.214.2146.6746.67-0.28-0.28
Saint Joseph'sA104.184.1878.1278.122.352.35
Rhode IslandA104.154.1553.3353.330.280.28
La SalleA104.154.1528.5728.57-1.78-1.78
DaytonA102.542.5477.4277.421.391.39
VCUA102.532.5369.7069.701.001.00
DavidsonA102.512.5163.3363.330.670.67
George MasonA102.482.4835.4835.48-0.72-0.72
George WashingtonA102.482.4868.7568.750.930.93
St. BonaventureA102.422.4272.4172.411.091.09
DuquesneA102.402.4050.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA102.402.4032.2632.26-0.85-0.85
LIU BrooklynNEC1.921.9253.3353.330.130.13
Central ConnecticutNEC1.891.8914.2914.29-1.35-1.35
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.841.8456.6756.670.250.25
MaineAE1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
Boston CollegeACC1.781.7819.3519.35-1.09-1.09
ColgatePat1.751.7542.8642.86-0.25-0.25
ManhattanMAAC1.751.7543.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Coppin St.MEAC1.721.7225.0025.00-0.86-0.86
St. John'sBE1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
UT ArlingtonSB1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
WagnerNEC0.310.3167.7467.740.110.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.210.2162.8662.860.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2031.2531.25-0.07-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.190.1985.2985.290.140.14
NiagaraMAAC0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
ProvidenceBE0.190.1969.7069.700.070.07
ArmyPat0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
LafayettePat0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
BryantNEC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
RiderMAAC0.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.160.1637.0437.04-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
UMBCAE0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
AmericanPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
FloridaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
VermontAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
HartfordAE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
SienaMAAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
RutgersB100.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
DrexelCAA0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
BucknellPat0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01