live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:99
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21226.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH87-67W100%0.0
11-12Syracuse (16.0)ACCA89-74L0%0.0
11-15Lehigh (236.0)PatH80-72W100%0.0
11-23Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH73-85L0%0.0
11-26Manhattan (60.0)MAACA75-79W100%0.0
12-4Furman (339.0)SCH79-48W100%0.0
12-7St. John's (67.0)BEA104-58L0%0.0
12-10Colgate (256.0)PatA73-77W100%0.0
12-14Howard (323.0)MEACH79-60W100%0.0
12-21Monmouth (292.0)MAACA87-78L0%0.0
12-23Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH83-69W100%0.0
12-28Harvard (46.0)IvyH86-94L0%0.0
12-30Siena (193.0)MAACA79-69L0%0.0
1-8Duquesne (187.0)A10A87-81L0%0.0
1-11Richmond (75.0)A10H74-77L0%0.0
1-15Dayton (43.0)A10H68-80L0%0.0
1-18Saint Louis (27.0)A10A70-48L0%0.0
1-22George Mason (164.0)A10H76-70W100%0.0
1-26Massachusetts (23.0)A10A90-52L0%0.0
1-29VCU (13.0)A10A76-60L0%0.0
2-1Rhode Island (155.0)A10H85-79W100%0.0
2-8George Washington (29.0)A10A93-67L0%0.0
2-12St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H65-76L0%0.0
2-15Richmond (75.0)A10A82-70L0%0.0
2-22Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A87-72L0%0.0
2-27VCU (13.0)A10H66-85L0%0.0
3-1La Salle (98.0)A10H62-64L0%0.0
3-5Rhode Island (155.0)A10A77-65L0%0.0
3-8George Washington (29.0)A10H67-70L0%0.0
3-12George Mason (164.0)A10N67-70W100%0.0
3-13Dayton (43.0)A10N87-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.0926.0929.2029.20-10.86-10.86
VCUA103.883.8875.0075.001.941.94
George WashingtonA103.853.8573.3373.331.801.80
George MasonA103.843.8437.9337.93-0.93-0.93
DaytonA103.833.8367.7467.741.361.36
RichmondA103.833.8354.8454.840.370.37
Rhode IslandA103.803.8041.3841.38-0.66-0.66
Saint Joseph'sA102.342.3471.8871.881.021.02
MassachusettsA102.302.3074.1974.191.111.11
St. BonaventureA102.272.2751.6151.610.070.07
La SalleA102.242.2446.6746.67-0.15-0.15
DuquesneA102.242.2439.2939.29-0.48-0.48
Saint LouisA102.242.2480.0080.001.351.35
St. Francis PANEC1.821.8233.3333.33-0.61-0.61
ManhattanMAAC1.791.7980.6580.651.101.10
SienaMAAC1.791.7945.1645.16-0.17-0.17
MonmouthMAAC1.741.7432.2632.26-0.62-0.62
LehighPat1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
ColgatePat1.711.7141.3841.38-0.30-0.30
SyracuseACC1.661.6683.8783.871.131.13
Sacred HeartNEC1.661.6613.3313.33-1.22-1.22
St. John'sBE1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
HowardMEAC1.641.6420.0020.00-0.98-0.98
HarvardIvy1.641.6485.7185.711.171.17
FurmanSC1.611.6126.9226.92-0.74-0.74
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
IonaMAAC0.300.3068.7568.750.110.11
AmericanPat0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.2364.5264.520.070.07
FairfieldMAAC0.230.2321.8821.88-0.13-0.13
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
WagnerNEC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
RiderMAAC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.17-0.17
PennIvy0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1821.2121.21-0.10-0.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
BryantNEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
NavyPat0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
WoffordSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
LafayettePat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
VillanovaBE0.130.1387.5087.500.090.09
CreightonBE0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.040.04
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
New HampshireAE0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
WinthropBSth0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01