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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:238.0
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:89
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:169



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21238.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Penn St. (108.0)B10A73-54L0%0.0
11-20Maryland (13.0)B10A66-50L0%0.0
11-23UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH57-64L0%0.0
11-29Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH66-72L0%0.0
12-1Siena (261.0)MAACH69-67W100%0.0
12-10Monmouth (176.0)MAACH68-58W100%0.0
12-14St. John's (44.0)BEA74-53L0%0.0
12-22Manhattan (168.0)MAACN57-71L0%0.0
12-28Howard (255.0)MEACH74-59W100%0.0
12-31South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH74-54W100%0.0
1-4VCU (15.0)A10H58-75L0%0.0
1-7Rhode Island (66.0)A10A68-65L0%0.0
1-10Dayton (32.0)A10H58-76L0%0.0
1-14Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A66-55L0%0.0
1-17La Salle (101.0)A10A60-49L0%0.0
1-22George Washington (84.0)A10H59-79L0%0.0
1-28Rhode Island (66.0)A10H63-64L0%0.0
2-1Dayton (32.0)A10A101-77L0%0.0
2-4Massachusetts (80.0)A10H72-78L0%0.0
2-7Saint Louis (272.0)A10H83-65W100%0.0
2-11Richmond (56.0)A10A73-71L0%0.0
2-15Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H69-55W100%0.0
2-18George Mason (221.0)A10A68-80W100%0.0
2-21Davidson (35.0)A10A76-57L0%0.0
2-25La Salle (101.0)A10H63-48W100%0.0
2-28Massachusetts (80.0)A10A82-74L0%0.0
3-4Duquesne (222.0)A10H66-81L0%0.0
3-7St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A66-52L0%0.0
3-11George Mason (221.0)A10N71-65W100%0.0
3-12VCU (15.0)A10N57-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.1626.1625.0025.00-13.08-13.08
VCUA104.104.1072.7372.731.871.87
La SalleA104.104.1051.6151.610.130.13
MassachusettsA104.104.1050.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA104.094.0967.8667.861.461.46
DaytonA104.074.0774.1974.191.971.97
Saint Joseph'sA104.024.0241.3841.38-0.69-0.69
George MasonA103.983.9828.5728.57-1.71-1.71
St. BonaventureA102.532.5356.6756.670.340.34
DuquesneA102.482.4834.4834.48-0.77-0.77
George WashingtonA102.462.4662.5062.500.620.62
DavidsonA102.452.4575.8675.861.261.26
Saint LouisA102.432.4333.3333.33-0.81-0.81
RichmondA102.432.4358.0658.060.390.39
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.881.8854.8454.840.180.18
ManhattanMAAC1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
SienaMAAC1.851.8536.6736.67-0.49-0.49
HowardMEAC1.801.8046.4346.43-0.13-0.13
MonmouthMAAC1.801.8056.2556.250.220.22
Penn St.B101.771.7751.5251.520.050.05
UMass LowellAE1.751.7537.0437.04-0.45-0.45
South Carolina St.MEAC1.751.7530.0030.00-0.70-0.70
MarylandB101.741.7481.2581.251.091.09
St. John'sBE1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
IonaMAAC0.340.3476.4776.470.180.18
NiagaraMAAC0.260.2626.6726.67-0.12-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
MaristMAAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.13-0.13
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.230.2347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.230.2394.1294.120.200.20
Delaware St.MEAC0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.200.2090.6290.620.170.17
ProvidenceBE0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
RutgersB100.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
NJITind0.170.1756.0056.000.020.02
VermontAE0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
CornellIvy0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
RiderMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
NebraskaB100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.110.11
DrexelCAA0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1127.2727.27-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
BrownIvy0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01