Fordham

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	240.0
Current RPI:	240
Expected SOS:	133
Current SOS:	133
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	3-13
Expected Conf Record:	3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-3
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	191
Expected OOC SOS:	253

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	240.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Syracuse (1.0)	BE	A	78-53	L	0%
11-18	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	H	64-49	W	100%
11-26	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	A	64-50	L	0%
11-29	Colgate (295.0)	Pat	H	79-69	W	100%
12-1	Lehigh (91.0)	Pat	H	60-78	L	0%
12-5	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	H	54-53	W	100%
12-7	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	A	81-47	L	0%
12-10	Monmouth (236.0)	NEC	A	80-65	L	0%
12-12	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	A	59-74	W	100%
12-17	St. John's (159.0)	BE	A	56-50	L	0%
12-22	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	81-70	W	100%
12-29	Georgia Tech (197.0)	ACC	H	72-66	W	100%
1-3	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	60-54	W	100%
1-5	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	A	80-76	L	0%
1-7	Xavier (41.0)	A10	H	59-67	L	0%
1-11	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	A	80-62	L	0%
1-18	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	H	66-64	W	100%
1-21	St. Bonaventure (72.0)	A10	A	95-51	L	0%
1-25	Richmond (127.0)	A10	A	102-58	L	0%
1-28	George Washington (188.0)	A10	H	63-58	W	100%
2-1	Temple (19.0)	A10	A	78-60	L	0%
2-4	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	H	62-69	L	0%
2-11	Dayton (81.0)	A10	H	70-72	L	0%
2-15	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	A	77-67	L	0%
2-18	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	A	66-46	L	0%
2-22	St. Bonaventure (72.0)	A10	H	63-89	L	0%
2-25	La Salle (90.0)	A10	H	67-62	W	100%
2-29	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	A	78-58	L	0%
3-3	Temple (19.0)	A10	H	60-80	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fordham	A10	25.97	25.97	29.57	29.57	-10.61	-10.61
St. Bonaventure	A10	4.02	4.02	62.07	62.07	0.97	0.97
Rhode Island	A10	3.91	3.91	20.69	20.69	-2.29	-2.29
Temple	A10	3.91	3.91	75.86	75.86	2.02	2.02
Massachusetts	A10	2.41	2.41	65.62	65.62	0.75	0.75
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.39	2.39	59.38	59.38	0.45	0.45
Xavier	A10	2.33	2.33	62.50	62.50	0.58	0.58
La Salle	A10	2.30	2.30	65.62	65.62	0.72	0.72
George Washington	A10	2.30	2.30	33.33	33.33	-0.77	-0.77
Dayton	A10	2.27	2.27	61.29	61.29	0.51	0.51
Richmond	A10	2.27	2.27	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Duquesne	A10	2.27	2.27	48.28	48.28	-0.08	-0.08
St. Louis	A10	2.27	2.27	76.67	76.67	1.21	1.21
Charlotte	A10	2.24	2.24	41.38	41.38	-0.39	-0.39
Siena	MAAC	1.91	1.91	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Manhattan	MAAC	1.86	1.86	61.29	61.29	0.42	0.42
Colgate	Pat	1.86	1.86	27.59	27.59	-0.83	-0.83
Lehigh	Pat	1.84	1.84	77.42	77.42	1.01	1.01
Syracuse	BE	1.83	1.83	93.75	93.75	1.61	1.61
Harvard	Ivy	1.81	1.81	89.29	89.29	1.42	1.42
Binghamton	AE	1.78	1.78	6.67	6.67	-1.54	-1.54
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.78	1.78	36.67	36.67	-0.47	-0.47
St. John's	BE	1.78	1.78	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Monmouth	NEC	1.75	1.75	35.48	35.48	-0.51	-0.51
Hampton	MEAC	1.75	1.75	37.50	37.50	-0.44	-0.44
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.72	1.72	17.86	17.86	-1.11	-1.11
Texas St.	Slnd	1.72	1.72	36.00	36.00	-0.48	-0.48
Bucknell	Pat	0.25	0.25	71.88	71.88	0.11	0.11
Canisius	MAAC	0.22	0.22	16.67	16.67	-0.15	-0.15
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.22	0.22	75.00	75.00	0.11	0.11
American	Pat	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Villanova	BE	0.22	0.22	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Boston University	AE	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	23.33	23.33	-0.09	-0.09
Hofstra	CAA	0.17	0.17	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.17	7.14	7.14	-0.14	-0.14
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Niagara	MAAC	0.17	0.17	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.16	0.16	16.13	16.13	-0.11	-0.11
Iona	MAAC	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Texas	B12	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	65.38	65.38	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00