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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:215.0
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:131
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19215.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA96-59L0%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH68-55W100%0.0
11-19Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH63-41W100%0.0
11-20Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH85-69W100%0.0
11-23Rider (198.0)MAACH73-62W100%0.0
11-26UT Arlington (45.0)SBH63-67L0%0.0
11-30Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH70-71L0%0.0
12-3Harvard (143.0)IvyA64-52L0%0.0
12-8St. John's (140.0)BEA90-62L0%0.0
12-10Manhattan (263.0)MAACA60-53L0%0.0
12-18Rutgers (177.0)B10N68-53L0%0.0
12-21Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH83-60W100%0.0
12-30Duquesne (267.0)A10H72-75L0%0.0
1-4Richmond (80.0)A10A80-72L0%0.0
1-7Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H55-70L0%0.0
1-11Davidson (93.0)A10A54-60W100%0.0
1-14St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N73-53L0%0.0
1-18VCU (22.0)A10H69-67W100%0.0
1-21Massachusetts (195.0)A10A68-71W100%0.0
1-28Davidson (93.0)A10H66-84L0%0.0
1-31Dayton (30.0)A10H66-75L0%0.0
2-4Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A83-86W100%0.0
2-8La Salle (133.0)A10H52-67L0%0.0
2-11George Mason (103.0)A10A73-67L0%0.0
2-15Rhode Island (31.0)A10A43-53W100%0.0
2-18Saint Louis (238.0)A10H54-40W100%0.0
2-22Duquesne (267.0)A10A52-70W100%0.0
2-25Richmond (80.0)A10H48-70L0%0.0
3-1George Washington (102.0)A10H66-67L0%0.0
3-4La Salle (133.0)A10A66-54L0%0.0
3-9George Mason (103.0)A10N82-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.1026.1036.1336.13-7.24-7.24
DavidsonA103.883.8853.3353.330.260.26
RichmondA103.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
La SalleA103.833.8346.4346.43-0.27-0.27
George MasonA103.833.8356.6756.670.510.51
DuquesneA103.813.8130.0030.00-1.52-1.52
Saint Joseph'sA103.813.8134.4834.48-1.18-1.18
VCUA102.422.4278.7978.791.391.39
MassachusettsA102.412.4146.8846.88-0.15-0.15
George WashingtonA102.402.4056.2556.250.300.30
Rhode IslandA102.382.3875.0075.001.191.19
Saint LouisA102.352.3537.5037.50-0.59-0.59
St. BonaventureA102.302.3061.2961.290.520.52
DaytonA102.292.2975.8675.861.181.18
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.801.8035.7135.71-0.51-0.51
Central ConnecticutNEC1.791.7921.4321.43-1.03-1.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.771.7761.2961.290.400.40
RiderMAAC1.761.7656.2556.250.220.22
ManhattanMAAC1.741.7429.0329.03-0.73-0.73
Sacred HeartNEC1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
RutgersB101.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
LipscombASun1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
HarvardIvy1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
East Tennessee St.SC1.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
St. John'sBE1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
UT ArlingtonSB1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2655.8855.880.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.260.2642.4242.42-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.250.2554.5554.550.020.02
PennIvy0.250.2546.4346.43-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.230.2364.7164.710.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2110.0010.00-0.17-0.17
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B100.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
TempleAmer0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
MaristMAAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
DrexelCAA0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
HartfordAE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.1478.5778.570.080.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Seton HallBE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
BucknellPat0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
VMISC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
GeorgetownBE0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
BrownIvy0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01