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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:254.5
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:27
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-4
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13104.00.01%
14-14133.10.07%
13-15149.00.33%
12-16168.51.20%
11-17190.14.19%
10-18211.09.13%
9-19232.116.00%
8-20251.621.76%
7-21268.821.77%
6-22284.015.22%
5-23297.37.50%
4-24306.32.34%
3-25315.00.44%
2-26322.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Penn St. (95.4)B10A73-54L0%0.0
11-20Maryland (35.6)B10A66-50L0%0.0
11-23UMass Lowell (202.7)AEH57-64L0%0.0
11-29Maryland Eastern Shore (246.9)MEACH66-72L0%0.0
12-1Siena (208.8)MAACH69-67W100%0.0
12-10Monmouth (167.0)MAACH68-58W100%0.0
12-14St. John's (41.7)BEA74-53L0%0.0
12-22Manhattan (289.7)MAACA0-030%-6.0
12-28Howard (271.3)MEACH0-065%4.5
12-31South Carolina St. (278.1)MEACH0-076%8.1
1-4VCU (15.8)A10H0-010%-15.1
1-7Rhode Island (57.9)A10A0-03%-21.6
1-10Dayton (70.7)A10H0-022%-8.9
1-14Saint Joseph's (172.4)A10A0-023%-8.7
1-17La Salle (103.0)A10A0-010%-14.7
1-22George Washington (74.3)A10H0-019%-10.4
1-28Rhode Island (57.9)A10H0-013%-13.0
2-1Dayton (70.7)A10A0-07%-17.5
2-4Massachusetts (100.7)A10H0-032%-5.6
2-7Saint Louis (249.9)A10H0-067%5.2
2-11Richmond (74.7)A10A0-08%-16.5
2-15Saint Joseph's (172.4)A10H0-049%-0.2
2-18George Mason (192.5)A10A0-025%-8.0
2-21Davidson (28.3)A10A0-02%-23.4
2-25La Salle (103.0)A10H0-030%-6.2
2-28Massachusetts (100.7)A10A0-011%-14.1
3-4Duquesne (237.3)A10H0-055%1.6
3-7St. Bonaventure (97.2)A10A0-09%-15.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1027.3826.1420.6922.73-16.05-14.26
MassachusettsA100.404.3354.5549.520.04-0.04
La SalleA100.004.3054.5551.540.000.13
Rhode IslandA100.364.2966.6771.920.121.88
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.2660.0041.470.00-0.73
DaytonA100.004.2080.0068.190.001.53
DuquesneA100.652.6037.5033.38-0.16-0.86
St. BonaventureA100.402.5977.7864.480.220.75
Saint LouisA100.002.5163.6436.370.00-0.68
RichmondA100.002.4860.0056.820.000.34
VCUA100.272.4872.7375.530.121.27
George WashingtonA100.302.4866.6765.220.100.75
George MasonA100.002.4833.3328.12-0.00-1.08
DavidsonA100.002.4588.8976.050.001.27
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC7.142.0033.3342.58-2.38-0.30
ManhattanMAAC0.001.9930.0036.03-0.00-0.56
SienaMAAC7.141.9937.5051.24-1.790.05
MonmouthMAAC7.441.9455.5660.190.830.39
HowardMEAC0.001.9430.0044.10-0.00-0.23
Penn St.B107.141.9190.9153.585.840.14
UMass LowellAE7.141.8844.4448.41-0.79-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.8827.2735.95-0.00-0.53
MarylandB107.501.8790.9171.706.140.81
St. John'sBE7.141.7987.5064.505.360.52
NiagaraMAAC0.400.2712.5029.75-0.30-0.11
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2760.0064.660.000.08
IonaMAAC0.360.2760.0069.180.070.10
MaristMAAC0.360.249.0915.53-0.29-0.17
QuinnipiacMAAC0.400.2450.0053.920.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2436.3647.95-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.270.23100.0083.420.270.16
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2236.3646.70-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.300.21100.0089.960.300.17
RutgersB100.000.2154.5532.610.00-0.07
NJITind1.110.1941.6743.31-0.19-0.02
VermontAE0.400.1840.0053.58-0.080.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.300.1816.6735.21-0.20-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1875.0057.450.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1840.0037.46-0.00-0.05
RiderMAAC0.400.1850.0052.960.000.01
UMBCAE0.270.1618.1825.24-0.17-0.08
CornellIvy0.650.1550.0046.480.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.360.1518.1830.67-0.23-0.06
NebraskaB100.000.1566.6744.010.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1560.0038.770.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.300.1522.2236.02-0.17-0.04
PennIvy0.000.1537.5033.40-0.00-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0010.55-0.00-0.10
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0013.95-0.00-0.09
HamptonMEAC0.000.1250.0051.710.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1254.5559.550.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1218.1827.26-0.00-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1280.0053.820.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.270.120.0023.75-0.27-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.570.1250.0071.160.000.05
Ohio St.B100.360.1281.8282.150.230.08
NortheasternCAA0.000.1270.0059.740.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.270.1290.0082.040.220.08
TempleAmer0.000.1263.6456.720.000.02
MinnesotaB100.400.1280.0068.200.240.04
BrownIvy0.000.1040.0034.38-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.400.0940.0054.66-0.080.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0945.4545.06-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0970.0052.280.000.00
DetroitHorz0.270.0940.0047.83-0.05-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0011.84-0.00-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.300.0954.5564.030.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.360.0950.0048.150.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.400.0960.0062.090.080.02
Boston UniversityPat0.360.0930.0041.58-0.14-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0960.0034.330.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.400.0930.0028.28-0.16-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.0981.8263.950.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.400.0937.5039.38-0.10-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.400.0990.9190.730.320.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.400.0933.3344.93-0.13-0.01
BucknellPat0.570.0940.0037.24-0.11-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0954.5541.660.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0990.9183.170.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0966.6758.480.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0981.8263.040.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6766.950.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0930.0042.78-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.360.0960.0047.200.07-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0990.9188.760.000.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0614.2914.63-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0662.5071.550.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0654.5553.240.000.00
KansasB120.000.0690.0071.080.000.03
MaineAE0.000.0610.0022.40-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0060.240.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.96-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0637.5027.75-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0640.0055.83-0.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0630.0040.39-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.93-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.760.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0032.85-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.270.0655.5665.160.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1457.190.000.01
VMISC0.300.0633.3338.75-0.10-0.01
West VirginiaB120.360.0690.9170.260.290.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.220.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.340.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0669.2349.070.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0641.6751.30-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.160.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.760.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.68-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0049.390.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.63-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.340.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.360.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.800.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0663.6464.150.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.400.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.650.0620.0027.60-0.39-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.19-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.870.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0675.0063.910.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.570.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0063.750.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0650.0040.340.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.700.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6776.600.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.240.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.570.0660.0038.340.11-0.01
WagnerNEC0.650.0612.5031.01-0.49-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0043.91-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.830.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.820.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.050.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.060.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0322.2247.34-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.520.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.360.0355.5660.570.040.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0345.4552.17-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0026.86-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0390.0055.400.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.910.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.280.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0075.560.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7871.240.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.008.46-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.03-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0316.6743.50-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0025.91-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7361.760.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0370.0062.800.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.93-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.740.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0330.0032.35-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.740.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0330.0029.93-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0336.3650.65-0.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.49-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.400.0362.5057.910.100.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0312.5026.95-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0370.0059.860.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0354.5545.090.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.400.0360.0057.780.080.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3334.44-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8956.070.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.130.000.02
AkronMAC0.300.0360.0056.450.060.00
Arizona St.P120.300.0354.5549.050.03-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.930.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.920.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0340.0051.94-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.340.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0366.6761.820.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
Iowa St.B120.300.0390.0065.820.240.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0363.6456.310.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.300.0322.2236.55-0.17-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.0333.3340.88-0.09-0.01
NavyPat0.270.0320.0022.49-0.16-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.160.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0327.2732.26-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.300.0380.0058.040.180.00
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.400.000.00
SMUAmer0.360.0372.7375.960.160.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.470.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.890.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.500.000.01
USCP120.300.0363.6440.160.08-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.300.0363.6467.200.080.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.63-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.300.0325.0044.51-0.15-0.00