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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:228.0
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:80
Current SOS:80
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24228.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Texas St. (272.0)WACA86-76L0%0.0
11-12Pittsburgh (44.0)BEA86-51L0%0.0
11-13Robert Morris (132.0)NECA74-58L0%0.0
11-19Pennsylvania (280.0)IvyN68-70W100%0.0
11-20Fairfield (173.0)MAACN74-71L0%0.0
11-29Manhattan (183.0)MAACH58-65L0%0.0
12-1Harvard (93.0)IvyA73-64L0%0.0
12-4Lehigh (107.0)PatA81-63L0%0.0
12-8St. John's (96.0)BEA58-47L0%0.0
12-15Princeton (124.0)IvyN63-60W100%0.0
12-21Connecticut (49.0)BEA88-73L0%0.0
12-23Siena (295.0)MAACH81-75W100%0.0
12-29Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA73-48L0%0.0
12-31Monmouth (282.0)NECH82-71W100%0.0
1-4Mississippi (47.0)SECA95-68L0%0.0
1-9Duquesne (229.0)A10H82-75W100%0.0
1-13Massachusetts (57.0)A10H73-77L0%0.0
1-16Charlotte (68.0)A10A74-68L0%0.0
1-23Dayton (114.0)A10A96-51L0%0.0
1-26Rhode Island (201.0)A10H66-63W100%0.0
1-30Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H62-66L0%0.0
2-2Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A81-65L0%0.0
2-6St. Louis (15.0)A10H73-90L0%0.0
2-9La Salle (46.0)A10A89-53L0%0.0
2-13Xavier (87.0)A10A79-66L0%0.0
2-16Butler (22.0)A10H63-68L0%0.0
2-20George Washington (147.0)A10A68-60L0%0.0
2-23Richmond (92.0)A10H55-72L0%0.0
3-2Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A82-56L0%0.0
3-6Temple (42.0)A10H55-74L0%0.0
3-9St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A72-76W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1025.8625.8622.1422.14-14.41-14.41
Saint Joseph'sA103.723.7255.1755.170.380.38
MassachusettsA102.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
Virginia CommonwealthA102.162.1675.7675.761.111.11
ButlerA102.162.1675.0075.001.081.08
XavierA102.132.1353.3353.330.140.14
La SalleA102.102.1068.9768.970.800.80
CharlotteA102.102.1064.5264.520.610.61
St. LouisA102.102.1081.2581.251.311.31
TempleA102.082.0870.9770.970.870.87
DuquesneA102.082.0827.5927.59-0.93-0.93
George WashingtonA102.082.0841.3841.38-0.36-0.36
DaytonA102.082.0853.3353.330.140.14
St. BonaventureA102.052.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA102.052.0554.8454.840.200.20
Rhode IslandA102.022.0228.5728.57-0.87-0.87
PennsylvaniaIvy1.911.9130.0030.00-0.76-0.76
HarvardIvy1.851.8565.3865.380.570.57
FairfieldMAAC1.841.8454.5554.550.170.17
ManhattanMAAC1.821.8241.9441.94-0.29-0.29
SienaMAAC1.791.7925.8125.81-0.87-0.87
Robert MorrisNEC1.751.7568.7568.750.650.65
LehighPat1.741.7467.8667.860.620.62
PrincetonIvy1.721.7261.5461.540.400.40
PittsburghBE1.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
ConnecticutBE1.691.6965.5265.520.530.53
St. John'sBE1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthNEC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Texas St.WAC1.641.6431.2531.25-0.61-0.61
Georgia TechACC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
VillanovaBE0.290.2959.3859.380.050.05
IonaMAAC0.280.2860.6160.610.060.06
RiderMAAC0.280.2856.2556.250.030.03
YaleIvy0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Notre DameBE0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
CanisiusMAAC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Loyola MDMAAC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
BrownIvy0.200.2044.4444.44-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.200.2038.4638.46-0.05-0.05
RutgersBE0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.180.1874.2974.290.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
DePaulBE0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
MaristMAAC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
St. Peter'sMAAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
DartmouthIvy0.170.1729.6329.63-0.07-0.07
LafayettePat0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
DrexelCAA0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiBE0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Miami FLACC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
MarquetteBE0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Holy CrossPat0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
NavyPat0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
BryantNEC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
OhioMAC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Long IslandNEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
ColgatePat0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
ElonSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DenverWAC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0548.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01