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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:171
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-887.20.08%
19-9105.70.94%
18-10125.54.39%
17-11145.912.11%
16-12164.423.64%
15-13181.626.68%
14-14198.620.10%
13-15215.99.54%
12-16234.12.28%
11-17253.10.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UT Arlington (112.2)SBA77-72L0%0.0
11-21Fairleigh Dickinson (213.6)NECH85-62W100%0.0
11-24Colgate (234.3)PatH84-58W100%0.0
11-28Manhattan (221.2)MAACH87-64W100%0.0
12-2St. John's (224.9)BEH73-57W100%0.0
12-5Central Connecticut (350.2)NECH86-54W100%0.0
12-8LIU Brooklyn (274.6)NECH89-84W100%0.0
12-13Coppin St. (321.9)MEACH92-55W100%0.0
12-19Maine (289.9)AEH70-53W100%0.0
12-22Boston College (231.0)ACCN55-64L0%0.0
1-3George Washington (52.7)A10A69-63L0%0.0
1-6La Salle (257.9)A10H66-61W100%0.0
1-10Richmond (113.4)A10H82-93L0%0.0
1-13VCU (30.0)A10A88-54L0%0.0
1-16Saint Joseph's (38.5)A10A80-55L0%0.0
1-20George Mason (185.9)A10H73-62W100%0.0
1-24Dayton (14.4)A10H50-64L0%0.0
1-27Rhode Island (103.6)A10A79-63L0%0.0
1-30Massachusetts (191.5)A10A72-78W100%0.0
2-6Saint Joseph's (38.5)A10H0-034%-4.4
2-10St. Bonaventure (50.8)A10H0-042%-2.3
2-13Richmond (113.4)A10A0-023%-8.2
2-17Massachusetts (191.5)A10H0-069%5.5
2-20Saint Louis (197.0)A10A0-058%2.2
2-24La Salle (257.9)A10A0-069%5.5
2-27Davidson (81.0)A10H0-052%0.5
3-2Duquesne (101.8)A10A0-034%-4.6
3-5Rhode Island (103.6)A10H0-040%-2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.1826.1552.1149.151.11-0.45
MassachusettsA103.004.2945.0041.59-0.30-0.72
Saint Joseph'sA103.074.2680.9577.081.902.31
Rhode IslandA103.014.2652.3854.330.140.37
La SalleA103.064.2522.2221.33-1.70-2.44
RichmondA103.004.1750.0051.170.000.10
George MasonA103.002.5438.1036.50-0.71-0.68
DaytonA102.892.5085.0080.572.021.53
St. BonaventureA100.432.5070.0069.450.170.97
George WashingtonA102.942.4776.1970.721.541.02
VCUA102.882.4776.1976.001.511.29
DavidsonA100.372.4757.8955.670.060.28
DuquesneA100.312.4466.6758.500.100.42
Saint LouisA100.362.4438.1033.08-0.09-0.83
LIU BrooklynNEC2.942.0052.3852.670.140.11
Central ConnecticutNEC2.871.9714.2914.29-2.05-1.41
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.811.9155.0055.810.280.22
MaineAE2.811.8838.1036.85-0.67-0.49
Boston CollegeACC2.751.8528.5724.17-1.18-0.95
ColgatePat2.691.8145.0045.14-0.27-0.18
ManhattanMAAC2.691.8147.3744.79-0.14-0.19
Coppin St.MEAC2.631.7916.6723.42-1.75-0.95
St. John'sBE2.631.7928.5725.25-1.13-0.88
UT ArlingtonSB2.631.7963.1667.670.690.63
St. Francis NYNEC0.370.3134.7841.59-0.11-0.05
WagnerNEC0.360.2861.9063.360.090.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.240.2225.0029.52-0.12-0.09
St. Francis PANEC0.240.2247.6249.35-0.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.250.2186.3685.330.180.15
NiagaraMAAC0.310.2125.0025.48-0.16-0.10
ProvidenceBE0.240.2178.2671.960.140.09
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2054.5561.950.020.05
LafayettePat0.250.1923.8125.26-0.13-0.09
BryantNEC0.240.1926.0927.58-0.12-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.240.1941.6746.85-0.04-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1931.8235.16-0.07-0.06
RiderMAAC0.190.1941.6743.51-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.250.1835.2934.69-0.07-0.06
TowsonCAA0.260.1663.6457.330.070.02
ArmyPat0.240.1654.5556.020.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.180.1622.7326.19-0.10-0.07
CreightonBE0.190.1560.8759.050.040.03
TempleAmer0.190.1561.9058.420.050.03
UMBCAE0.180.1520.8325.01-0.11-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.240.1540.9139.70-0.04-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.240.1533.3332.88-0.08-0.05
AmericanPat0.240.1531.8232.71-0.09-0.05
SyracuseACC0.180.1566.6762.710.060.04
HowardMEAC0.130.1340.0042.53-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.130.1363.6461.810.040.03
Loyola MDPat0.120.1331.8234.36-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1252.1754.400.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1245.0049.60-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.180.1252.6351.510.010.00
HartfordAE0.120.1226.0926.47-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.130.1214.2918.63-0.09-0.08
IonaMAAC0.130.1259.0959.680.020.02
RutgersB100.240.1222.7320.68-0.13-0.07
UCFAmer0.120.1255.0047.170.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.120.1254.5552.750.010.01
BrownIvy0.180.1233.3331.83-0.06-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.180.1219.0522.35-0.11-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.1457.510.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.1263.6462.340.020.03
FloridaSEC0.120.1268.1867.800.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1021.0529.16-0.08-0.04
BucknellPat0.130.1052.3856.770.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0947.6252.96-0.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0941.6743.85-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0968.1865.420.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0938.1037.53-0.01-0.02
SienaMAAC0.130.0966.6767.290.040.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0928.5734.73-0.06-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0979.1780.770.070.06
AlbanyAE0.120.0973.9175.010.060.05
Miami FLACC0.130.0980.9575.640.080.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.0938.1041.92-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.120.0956.5258.380.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0927.2732.84-0.06-0.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0980.0070.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.180.0965.2256.530.050.01
ColumbiaIvy0.130.0965.0064.310.040.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0986.3680.660.040.05
PrincetonIvy0.120.0970.5974.500.050.04
TCUB120.120.0945.4537.84-0.01-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0929.4138.47-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.180.0990.9184.430.150.06
DePaulBE0.060.0936.3634.95-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.120.0936.8441.45-0.03-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.120.0969.5768.670.050.03
MississippiSEC0.120.0963.6456.050.030.01
North FloridaASun0.120.0968.1869.350.040.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0952.1754.140.010.01
Seton HallBE0.120.0972.7368.630.050.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0945.4542.14-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.120.0947.8343.63-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.180.0981.8276.020.110.04
Virginia TechACC0.060.0952.1747.250.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0710.0014.87-0.00-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0738.1047.51-0.02-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0750.0046.870.00-0.00
IowaB100.130.0681.8279.900.080.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0659.0955.550.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0652.1752.980.000.00
LehighPat0.060.0630.0036.08-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0665.2265.230.020.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0619.0521.40-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.130.0659.0958.550.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0652.3854.240.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.0672.7372.440.050.03
DartmouthIvy0.120.0633.3332.01-0.04-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0082.460.040.04
DelawareCAA0.120.0622.7323.64-0.07-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0671.4370.600.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.0653.3355.180.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0627.2730.43-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0690.0086.120.050.04
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.1866.490.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0616.6724.27-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0656.5253.460.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.0636.8437.30-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0661.1158.300.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0657.8961.920.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0640.0044.95-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0626.3227.34-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0635.0034.93-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0641.1840.28-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.9054.010.010.00
TroySB0.070.0620.0023.76-0.04-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.0659.0962.730.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0681.8278.720.040.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0681.8277.490.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0673.9173.090.060.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0622.7323.37-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.120.0672.7369.920.050.02
Florida St.ACC0.120.0668.1863.250.040.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0672.7368.010.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0652.1747.620.00-0.00
MarylandB100.060.0686.9681.770.040.04
NebraskaB100.060.0652.1751.560.000.00
Notre DameACC0.120.0668.1863.720.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.9583.050.040.04
AkronMAC0.070.0381.8279.750.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0338.8943.22-0.02-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0321.0523.70-0.04-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0360.0061.350.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0372.7368.840.030.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0326.0930.33-0.03-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0352.3848.890.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0331.5833.51-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0336.3642.19-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0361.9059.930.000.01
CornellIvy0.060.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0350.0053.090.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0385.0085.230.050.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0029.91-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0326.3236.93-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0360.0057.960.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
YaleIvy0.060.0372.2273.760.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0357.1452.310.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0335.2944.50-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
BradleyMVC0.070.038.709.77-0.05-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0385.7184.560.040.02
FurmanSC0.060.0354.5553.780.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0316.6720.71-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0382.6177.370.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0354.5555.310.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0375.0072.220.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0328.5728.88-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0361.9062.050.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0317.3921.76-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0352.1754.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0330.0029.46-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0358.3354.120.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0359.0958.100.000.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0325.0028.19-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0318.1822.83-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0385.7176.030.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0375.0073.480.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0345.4547.97-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0368.1861.780.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0350.0050.040.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0376.1979.640.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0370.0069.360.030.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0331.8232.92-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0382.6181.380.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0370.0068.920.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.034.7614.01-0.05-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0352.3853.620.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0320.8320.11-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0372.7371.670.030.01
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.900.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0354.5555.190.010.00