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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:280.1
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:164
Current Record:6-13
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16205.30.06%
13-17219.00.42%
12-18233.22.00%
11-19247.87.23%
10-20262.617.42%
9-21276.927.38%
8-22290.426.47%
7-23303.115.65%
6-24313.33.36%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Miami OH (185.4)MACH54-55L0%0.0
11-13LIU Brooklyn (276.3)NECH81-68W100%0.0
11-17Florida St. (39.9)ACCN43-67L0%0.0
11-19Tulane (107.7)AmerN55-63L0%0.0
11-26Manhattan (204.8)MAACH70-57W100%0.0
11-29East Tennessee St. (62.0)SCH77-82L0%0.0
12-2Maine (331.6)AEH67-66W100%0.0
12-6Harvard (178.0)IvyH45-47L0%0.0
12-9St. Francis NY (282.9)NECH76-68W100%0.0
12-12Rutgers (187.9)B10A75-63L0%0.0
12-21Florida A&M (340.3)MEACH79-69W100%0.0
12-23West Virginia (15.9)B12A86-69L0%0.0
12-30VCU (127.7)A10A76-63L0%0.0
1-3Richmond (201.6)A10H69-65W100%0.0
1-6Duquesne (212.1)A10H41-64L0%0.0
1-10St. Bonaventure (49.7)A10A77-61L0%0.0
1-14Davidson (81.5)A10H45-75L0%0.0
1-17La Salle (182.0)A10A75-67L0%0.0
1-20Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10A68-46L0%0.0
1-24Rhode Island (14.4)A10H0-08%-15.7
1-27Massachusetts (199.1)A10H0-042%-2.3
2-3Saint Louis (176.5)A10A0-018%-10.2
2-7George Mason (224.7)A10H0-052%0.7
2-10Duquesne (212.1)A10A0-022%-8.4
2-14Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10H0-028%-6.4
2-17Dayton (111.9)A10A0-012%-13.3
2-21Davidson (81.5)A10A0-06%-17.6
2-24La Salle (182.0)A10H0-034%-4.5
2-28George Washington (200.4)A10A0-025%-7.5
3-3VCU (127.7)A10H0-025%-7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1026.3426.1122.2222.03-14.63-14.61
Saint Joseph'sA102.923.9747.0649.19-0.17-0.06
DuquesneA102.843.9168.4255.971.040.47
La SalleA102.833.9136.8439.92-0.75-0.79
VCUA102.913.8857.8957.770.460.60
DavidsonA102.773.8856.2558.810.350.68
George WashingtonA100.502.4145.0042.42-0.05-0.37
MassachusettsA100.362.3950.0046.430.00-0.17
St. BonaventureA102.782.3664.7167.650.820.83
RichmondA102.842.3333.3335.55-0.95-0.67
Rhode IslandA100.142.3383.3381.050.091.44
George MasonA100.222.3345.0041.09-0.02-0.41
DaytonA100.352.3247.3749.65-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.282.3247.3745.71-0.01-0.20
HarvardIvy2.771.8033.3344.72-0.92-0.19
St. Francis NYNEC2.761.8035.2936.52-0.81-0.49
LIU BrooklynNEC2.781.7842.1143.98-0.44-0.21
TulaneAmer2.841.7561.1156.440.630.23
Florida St.ACC2.771.7572.2268.591.230.65
MaineAE2.701.7511.1115.36-2.10-1.21
ManhattanMAAC2.791.7352.6352.620.150.09
Miami OHMAC2.771.7243.7539.32-0.35-0.37
RutgersB102.701.6952.6344.850.14-0.17
East Tennessee St.SC2.631.6776.4778.411.390.95
Florida A&MMEAC2.631.6710.5320.28-2.08-0.99
West VirginiaB122.631.6783.3377.441.750.91
VMISC0.280.2225.0024.15-0.14-0.11
PennIvy0.070.2064.7162.720.020.05
VirginiaACC0.210.1994.7486.140.190.14
TempleAmer0.210.1952.6351.740.010.01
BucknellPat0.270.1961.9068.020.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.1752.3848.530.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.340.1750.0045.930.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.1757.1460.410.030.04
Holy CrossPat0.210.1726.3230.49-0.10-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.270.1765.0054.670.080.02
Miami FLACC0.200.1677.7870.480.110.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1629.4139.63-0.08-0.03
BrownIvy0.140.1550.0045.140.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.1430.0033.47-0.09-0.05
BryantNEC0.200.149.5217.12-0.17-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.200.1423.5332.57-0.10-0.05
WagnerNEC0.140.1464.7164.570.040.04
VermontAE0.290.1475.0077.850.150.08
AkronMAC0.080.1447.0644.91-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.1452.9460.220.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.270.1442.1146.09-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.200.1444.4454.86-0.020.01
Seton HallBE0.200.1475.0067.890.100.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.140.009.09-0.20-0.11
TexasB120.200.1363.1657.630.050.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1242.1144.96-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1252.9459.250.010.02
CornellIvy0.070.1133.3333.23-0.02-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.220.1180.0075.060.130.06
Stony BrookAE0.200.1136.8445.21-0.05-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.1133.3333.87-0.02-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.140.1142.1139.94-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1133.3337.23-0.05-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.1135.0031.83-0.02-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.200.1150.0045.870.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.1157.1453.050.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1178.9576.750.080.06
VillanovaBE0.140.1194.7490.310.120.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1115.7920.91-0.10-0.06
PittsburghACC0.140.1140.0030.87-0.03-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0920.0032.25-0.04-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.230.0921.4326.35-0.13-0.04
YaleIvy0.070.0941.1847.56-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0968.7563.690.030.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0985.7182.090.060.06
KentuckySEC0.160.0973.6867.970.070.03
BuffaloMAC0.150.0972.2274.930.070.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0925.0031.45-0.07-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0947.0648.410.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.070.0918.7518.36-0.04-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0952.9452.230.000.00
MinnesotaB100.150.0863.6457.630.040.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0833.3340.080.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0838.8935.37-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0860.0064.110.000.02
Ohio St.B100.140.0880.9576.520.090.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0866.6767.700.020.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0870.0060.470.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.0861.1158.700.030.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0842.1132.47-0.01-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.200.0838.8944.08-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0878.9572.990.040.04
SienaMAAC0.140.0828.5729.94-0.06-0.03
TulsaAmer0.140.0855.0053.320.010.01
Texas TechB120.140.0878.9571.810.080.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0866.6765.520.020.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0878.9569.790.040.03
MaristMAAC0.140.0821.0522.02-0.08-0.05
NJITASun0.200.0838.8942.61-0.04-0.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0865.0065.320.020.03
MichiganB100.130.0876.1970.740.070.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0855.0050.330.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0868.4254.090.050.01
Penn St.B100.000.0861.9055.760.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0855.0052.470.010.00
TCUB120.070.0873.6865.600.030.03
TowsonCAA0.130.0863.1665.970.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.200.089.5217.90-0.16-0.05
HowardMEAC0.070.0810.5327.29-0.05-0.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0873.6862.720.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0855.5656.740.010.01
North FloridaASun0.130.0831.5835.15-0.05-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.150.0650.0053.260.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.260.010.02
NortheasternCAA0.160.0663.1663.220.040.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0663.1661.020.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0690.4888.960.070.04
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0658.8249.760.03-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0646.6746.970.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.150.0652.6351.690.010.00
FurmanSC0.070.0666.6768.540.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0644.4444.92-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0683.3384.240.050.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0666.6773.210.050.03
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.600.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0622.2227.33-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.97-0.04-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.0668.4254.070.050.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0641.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0666.6765.370.020.02
MissouriSEC0.150.0666.6763.200.050.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0627.7834.50-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.070.0685.7180.080.050.03
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0661.9063.140.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.4785.550.050.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.240.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.0645.0041.33-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1146.00-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.250.030.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
Michigan St.B100.130.0685.0083.200.090.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7841.03-0.03-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6759.820.000.01
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.370.050.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0616.6724.45-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.140.0670.0070.570.060.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0635.0026.120.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.070.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.140.0668.4261.230.050.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0668.4257.740.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0589.4777.000.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0552.6343.110.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0525.0028.24-0.03-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0572.2258.920.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0570.5975.950.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.140.0527.7840.97-0.06-0.01
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.860.030.01
BaylorB120.070.0561.1156.090.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0550.0052.460.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0530.0030.99-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0536.8444.11-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0520.0041.730.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0561.1147.220.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0584.2179.750.050.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0550.0054.890.000.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0568.4260.550.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.67-0.07-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0543.7554.110.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0550.0048.730.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0533.3336.93-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0550.0059.450.000.01
OklahomaB120.070.0577.7867.910.040.02
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0356.2556.830.010.00
DenverSum0.070.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.980.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.690.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.640.000.01
DePaulBE0.080.0342.1134.31-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0352.6358.590.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0342.8635.24-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0368.4269.250.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.45-0.05-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0366.6763.070.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0347.0647.410.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.02-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.210.050.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.710.000.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.370.050.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.300.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0357.8950.840.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0357.8954.500.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.1143.510.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.130.020.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.380.000.02
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.300.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0380.9576.240.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0317.6519.300.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6763.420.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.940.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0322.2227.470.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0352.6355.290.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.820.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.710.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.850.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.960.030.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.260.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0364.7159.990.000.01