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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Fordham

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:205.9
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:235
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:225
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-980.50.02%
20-1088.30.11%
19-11101.40.48%
18-12117.11.45%
17-13133.93.48%
16-14152.17.72%
15-15170.112.19%
14-16189.317.09%
13-17208.618.03%
12-18227.216.34%
11-19245.312.21%
10-20262.76.89%
9-21278.62.76%
8-22295.80.95%
7-23306.30.24%
6-24320.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fordham.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCA96-59L0%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH68-55W100%0.0
11-19Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACH63-41W100%0.0
11-20Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH85-69W100%0.0
11-23Rider (212.4)MAACH73-62W100%0.0
11-26UT Arlington (72.7)SBH63-67L0%0.0
11-30Sacred Heart (299.9)NECH70-71L0%0.0
12-3Harvard (224.3)IvyA0-041%-2.9
12-8St. John's (167.9)BEA0-026%-7.9
12-10Manhattan (234.2)MAACA0-058%2.3
12-18Rutgers (182.4)B10N0-044%-1.9
12-21Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH0-084%11.8
12-30Duquesne (255.5)A10H0-071%6.6
1-4Richmond (173.8)A10A0-032%-5.7
1-7Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10H0-047%-0.9
1-11Davidson (48.3)A10A0-012%-13.9
1-14St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10A0-014%-13.2
1-18VCU (31.1)A10H0-020%-10.1
1-21Massachusetts (108.4)A10A0-027%-7.5
1-28Davidson (48.3)A10H0-026%-7.7
1-31Dayton (36.4)A10H0-020%-10.2
2-4Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10A0-028%-7.0
2-8La Salle (107.7)A10H0-045%-1.4
2-11George Mason (200.3)A10A0-045%-1.6
2-15Rhode Island (33.6)A10A0-010%-15.2
2-18Saint Louis (278.6)A10H0-079%9.5
2-22Duquesne (255.5)A10A0-051%0.4
2-25Richmond (173.8)A10H0-052%0.5
3-1George Washington (176.1)A10H0-055%1.6
3-4La Salle (107.7)A10A0-026%-7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fordham's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Fordham's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Fordham.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
FordhamA1029.1526.1241.3840.74-5.03-4.84
DuquesneA100.003.9237.5034.36-0.00-1.23
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.9250.0045.660.00-0.34
RichmondA100.003.9257.1447.910.00-0.16
DavidsonA100.003.9183.3367.990.001.41
La SalleA100.003.9160.0050.860.000.07
MassachusettsA100.002.4083.3357.570.000.36
George WashingtonA100.002.3957.1444.140.00-0.28
Rhode IslandA100.002.3671.4369.660.000.93
VCUA100.002.3685.7178.090.001.33
Saint LouisA100.002.3333.3326.93-0.00-1.08
St. BonaventureA100.002.3366.6770.200.000.94
DaytonA100.002.3366.6772.160.001.03
George MasonA100.002.3057.1442.510.00-0.34
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC8.371.8625.0035.48-4.18-0.54
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.8640.0038.42-0.00-0.43
Saint Peter'sMAAC8.371.8375.0054.584.180.17
RiderMAAC7.141.8060.0049.591.43-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC7.141.7833.3335.99-2.38-0.50
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7833.3338.05-0.00-0.42
RutgersB100.001.7383.3344.370.00-0.19
LipscombASun8.571.7216.6734.30-5.71-0.54
HarvardIvy0.001.720.0042.36-0.00-0.26
East Tennessee St.SC7.141.7080.0080.014.291.02
St. John'sBE0.001.6928.5732.57-0.00-0.59
UT ArlingtonSB7.141.6750.0063.690.000.46
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2825.0039.28-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2540.0043.86-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2433.3341.52-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.2440.0057.97-0.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.2312.5048.98-0.38-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2316.6729.36-0.00-0.09
WagnerNEC0.600.2233.3353.85-0.200.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2216.6727.03-0.00-0.10
SienaMAAC0.000.2228.5750.51-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.2028.5750.20-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.2050.0053.050.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2083.3357.990.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1971.4363.570.000.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1960.0070.140.000.08
MaristMAAC0.000.1942.8635.68-0.00-0.05
Penn St.B100.000.1962.5043.960.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC1.110.1983.3362.080.740.05
HartfordAE0.600.1712.5022.55-0.45-0.09
DrexelCAA0.000.1742.8636.82-0.00-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0083.120.000.11
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1671.4371.570.000.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1616.6734.31-0.00-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1525.0063.95-0.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.510.1550.0071.330.000.06
VMISC0.000.140.0021.15-0.00-0.08
Seton HallBE0.710.1471.4354.520.310.01
BucknellPat0.000.1475.0067.660.000.05
MarylandB100.000.1485.7156.490.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1466.6765.810.000.04
BrownIvy0.000.1250.0042.420.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.1233.3364.14-0.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1242.8642.47-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.480.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1250.0027.250.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1120.0036.00-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1142.8647.69-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1128.5730.29-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1150.0047.560.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.710.1133.3331.87-0.24-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.1180.0055.340.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1171.4356.280.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.510.0920.0041.93-0.31-0.01
BelmontOVC0.510.0940.0061.37-0.100.02
CincinnatiAmer0.510.0985.7180.960.360.05
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0038.26-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.510.0957.1467.020.070.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0820.0032.60-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0857.1455.810.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0871.4366.220.000.03
MinnesotaB100.510.0885.7165.670.360.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.080.0028.15-0.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0842.8640.94-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0825.0040.81-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0860.0070.500.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.600.080.0034.18-0.60-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
HofstraCAA0.510.0857.1440.550.07-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0880.0035.960.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.32-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0728.5730.63-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.510.0614.2928.66-0.36-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.710.0633.3345.58-0.24-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.600.0683.3377.170.400.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
DetroitHorz0.600.060.0019.51-0.60-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0550.0061.590.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0516.6737.09-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0041.31-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.650.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0550.0049.010.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0585.7155.550.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.600.0566.6732.240.20-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0054.320.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.630.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.510.0383.3362.840.340.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.600.0333.3333.15-0.20-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.600.0314.2937.52-0.43-0.01
TexasB120.510.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.600.0350.0054.690.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.710.0350.0053.530.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.510.0385.7170.990.360.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.510.030.0038.35-0.51-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.510.0316.6740.71-0.34-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.510.0337.5036.24-0.13-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02