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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:296.0
Current RPI:296
Expected SOS:125
Current SOS:125
Current Record:6-25
Expected Record:6-25
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-25296.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina (5.0)ACCN75-95L0%0.0
11-14Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH93-76W100%0.0
11-17Oklahoma (168.0)B12N89-70L0%0.0
11-18Arizona St. (125.0)P12N71-80L0%0.0
11-20Missouri (257.0)SECN62-67L0%0.0
11-26Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA82-68L0%0.0
11-29New Orleans (154.0)SlndA74-59L0%0.0
12-2St. John's (140.0)BEH75-95L0%0.0
12-7Southern (320.0)SWACH84-75W100%0.0
12-10Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA64-71W100%0.0
12-19McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH63-70L0%0.0
12-23Texas St. (179.0)SBH66-69L0%0.0
12-28UCF (68.0)AmerH72-85L0%0.0
1-1Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA92-56L0%0.0
1-8Memphis (120.0)AmerH59-80L0%0.0
1-11South Florida (316.0)AmerA67-82W100%0.0
1-15SMU (13.0)AmerH64-80L0%0.0
1-18Tulsa (134.0)AmerA89-82L0%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH61-78L0%0.0
1-24Houston (54.0)AmerA65-51L0%0.0
1-28Connecticut (118.0)AmerA78-68L0%0.0
1-31Temple (137.0)AmerH71-79L0%0.0
2-4East Carolina (213.0)AmerA74-65L0%0.0
2-8Houston (54.0)AmerH62-91L0%0.0
2-15SMU (13.0)AmerA80-75L0%0.0
2-18South Florida (316.0)AmerH94-71W100%0.0
2-21East Carolina (213.0)AmerH73-76L0%0.0
2-25Temple (137.0)AmerA86-76L0%0.0
3-2Memphis (120.0)AmerA92-70L0%0.0
3-5Tulsa (134.0)AmerH81-69W100%0.0
3-9Tulsa (134.0)AmerN66-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer26.3026.3017.2217.22-17.24-17.24
TulsaAmer5.675.6744.8344.83-0.59-0.59
SMUAmer4.164.1687.5087.503.123.12
CincinnatiAmer4.134.1384.3884.382.842.84
East CarolinaAmer4.084.0841.9441.94-0.66-0.66
MemphisAmer4.064.0656.6756.670.540.54
TempleAmer4.004.0046.6746.67-0.27-0.27
South FloridaAmer4.004.0025.0025.00-2.00-2.00
HoustonAmer4.004.0065.5265.521.241.24
ConnecticutAmer2.592.5945.1645.16-0.25-0.25
UCFAmer2.572.5764.5264.520.740.74
McNeese St.Slnd1.821.8216.0016.00-1.24-1.24
New OrleansSlnd1.801.8059.2659.260.330.33
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.731.7348.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
SouthernSWAC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Georgia TechACC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB121.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
North CarolinaACC1.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
Arizona St.P121.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
MissouriSEC1.611.6122.5822.58-0.88-0.88
Southern MissCUSA1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
St. John'sBE1.611.6140.6240.62-0.30-0.30
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.2036.0036.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1736.0036.00-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1737.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
VillanovaBE0.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
PittsburghACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
AuburnSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
SyracuseACC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
USCP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
VirginiaACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
StanfordP120.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.09-0.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AlbanyAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
StetsonASun0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01