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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:214.0
Current RPI:214
Expected SOS:176
Current SOS:176
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:197
Expected OOC SOS:333



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16214.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH49-71L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH100-61W100%0.0
11-25Southern (223.0)SWACH74-59W100%0.0
11-28Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH71-61W100%0.0
11-30Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH73-68W100%0.0
12-3Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA70-83W100%0.0
12-6Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH59-54W100%0.0
12-16Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH75-67W100%0.0
12-19Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH56-49W100%0.0
12-22Washington (126.0)P12A66-57L0%0.0
12-28St. John's (44.0)BEN82-57L0%0.0
12-31East Carolina (219.0)AmerA59-67W100%0.0
1-3Memphis (83.0)AmerA66-74W100%0.0
1-7Temple (34.0)AmerH56-64L0%0.0
1-11South Florida (273.0)AmerH56-51W100%0.0
1-14UCF (257.0)AmerA103-100L0%0.0
1-17Houston (239.0)AmerA65-68W100%0.0
1-21SMU (12.0)AmerH52-66L0%0.0
1-24Memphis (83.0)AmerH55-57L0%0.0
1-27Tulsa (45.0)AmerH55-62L0%0.0
1-31Temple (34.0)AmerA55-37L0%0.0
2-7Connecticut (77.0)AmerH53-62L0%0.0
2-14Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA49-50W100%0.0
2-19UCF (257.0)AmerH55-69L0%0.0
2-22Connecticut (77.0)AmerA67-60L0%0.0
2-25Tulsa (45.0)AmerA76-55L0%0.0
2-28Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH47-63L0%0.0
3-4Houston (239.0)AmerH63-68L0%0.0
3-7South Florida (273.0)AmerA63-67W100%0.0
3-12Houston (239.0)AmerN60-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer26.3226.3242.8642.86-3.76-3.76
HoustonAmer5.825.8237.9337.93-1.41-1.41
ConnecticutAmer4.284.2856.2556.250.540.54
TulsaAmer4.244.2468.9768.971.611.61
South FloridaAmer4.224.2227.5927.59-1.89-1.89
TempleAmer4.184.1867.7467.741.481.48
MemphisAmer4.174.1756.6756.670.560.56
CincinnatiAmer4.174.1770.0070.001.671.67
UCFAmer4.174.1733.3333.33-1.39-1.39
SMUAmer2.712.7180.6580.651.661.66
East CarolinaAmer2.672.6740.0040.00-0.53-0.53
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.881.8819.3519.35-1.15-1.15
Jackson St.SWAC1.851.8535.4835.48-0.54-0.54
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.841.8426.6726.67-0.86-0.86
SouthernSWAC1.771.7748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC1.721.7237.0437.04-0.45-0.45
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
Mississippi St.SEC1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Savannah St.MEAC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
St. John'sBE1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
Wake ForestACC1.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
WashingtonP121.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.2337.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.2343.7543.75-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.2175.8675.860.110.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.2162.9662.960.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.2164.7164.710.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.180.000.00-0.18-0.18
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.180.1887.8887.880.140.14
Florida St.ACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.130.1393.9493.940.120.12
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
StanfordP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
BradleyMVC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0886.6786.670.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00