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Through games of Feb 21, 2017.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:289.6
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:112
Current Record:5-22
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:2-13
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:322
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22245.20.32%
7-23262.26.77%
6-24282.439.54%
5-25298.753.37%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina (5.8)ACCN75-95L0%0.0
11-14Southeastern Louisiana (247.3)SlndH93-76W100%0.0
11-17Oklahoma (163.6)B12N89-70L0%0.0
11-18Arizona St. (134.3)P12N71-80L0%0.0
11-20Missouri (248.7)SECN62-67L0%0.0
11-26Georgia Tech (94.4)ACCA82-68L0%0.0
11-29New Orleans (166.7)SlndA74-59L0%0.0
12-2St. John's (133.2)BEH75-95L0%0.0
12-7Southern (286.9)SWACH84-75W100%0.0
12-10Southern Miss (336.1)CUSAA64-71W100%0.0
12-19McNeese St. (298.6)SlndH63-70L0%0.0
12-23Texas St. (210.9)SBH66-69L0%0.0
12-28UCF (100.0)AmerH72-85L0%0.0
1-1Cincinnati (13.2)AmerA92-56L0%0.0
1-8Memphis (106.5)AmerH59-80L0%0.0
1-11South Florida (301.1)AmerA67-82W100%0.0
1-15SMU (18.0)AmerH64-80L0%0.0
1-18Tulsa (126.1)AmerA89-82L0%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (13.2)AmerH61-78L0%0.0
1-24Houston (53.8)AmerA65-51L0%0.0
1-28Connecticut (95.7)AmerA78-68L0%0.0
1-31Temple (116.1)AmerH71-79L0%0.0
2-4East Carolina (226.4)AmerA74-65L0%0.0
2-8Houston (53.8)AmerH62-91L0%0.0
2-15SMU (18.0)AmerA80-75L0%0.0
2-18South Florida (301.1)AmerH94-71W100%0.0
2-21East Carolina (226.4)AmerH73-76L0%0.0
2-25Temple (116.1)AmerA0-012%-12.9
3-2Memphis (106.5)AmerA0-08%-15.0
3-5Tulsa (126.1)AmerH0-034%-4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer26.3026.2816.7917.00-17.47-17.34
TulsaAmer2.624.1944.0045.31-0.31-0.39
MemphisAmer2.554.1765.3860.900.790.91
SMUAmer4.444.1684.6284.563.072.88
CincinnatiAmer4.324.1188.0086.583.293.00
East CarolinaAmer4.364.1142.3140.03-0.67-0.82
TempleAmer2.614.1048.1549.37-0.10-0.05
HoustonAmer4.294.1066.6766.081.431.32
South FloridaAmer4.364.1029.1727.56-1.82-1.84
UCFAmer2.582.5561.5460.810.600.55
ConnecticutAmer2.512.5450.0048.290.00-0.09
McNeese St.Slnd2.111.9019.0520.25-1.31-1.13
New OrleansSlnd2.011.8457.1458.390.290.31
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.971.7948.0049.25-0.08-0.03
Texas St.SB1.931.7552.1751.460.080.05
Georgia TechACC1.921.7253.8551.160.150.04
SouthernSWAC1.921.7250.0048.910.00-0.04
OklahomaB121.891.7230.7731.26-0.73-0.64
North CarolinaACC1.891.6980.7778.721.160.97
Arizona St.P121.851.6744.4442.25-0.21-0.26
MissouriSEC1.851.6723.0823.20-1.00-0.89
Southern MissCUSA1.851.6725.0023.38-0.93-0.89
St. John'sBE1.851.6740.7440.07-0.34-0.33
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.190.2152.1753.600.010.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.220.2128.5730.87-0.10-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.220.2065.3863.380.070.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1858.3359.170.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.230.1838.1038.33-0.06-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1834.7833.52-0.05-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1828.5728.88-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1737.5042.37-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1720.0020.87-0.13-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1559.0960.270.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1542.8645.45-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.1531.8233.08-0.06-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.1430.7734.70-0.06-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1451.7249.540.01-0.00
USCP120.140.1477.7875.860.080.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.1428.0028.36-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.140.1451.8551.320.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1470.3770.480.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.140.1478.5776.170.080.07
SyracuseACC0.140.1457.1455.700.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1455.5651.610.010.00
VillanovaBE0.130.1492.8691.340.110.11
VirginiaACC0.130.1466.6767.630.040.05
XavierBE0.170.1466.6766.160.060.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1247.8349.98-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1256.0055.900.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.124.005.37-0.13-0.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1230.4331.14-0.06-0.04
TroySB0.110.1253.8552.830.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1175.0077.120.070.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1137.5040.15-0.04-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1159.2662.730.020.03
UABCUSA0.110.1151.8553.220.000.01
LSUSEC0.140.1133.3331.74-0.05-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.890.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1120.0022.22-0.08-0.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1160.7159.690.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1174.0770.780.070.05
Illinois St.MVC0.070.1181.4881.200.040.07
ClemsonACC0.140.1151.8553.690.010.01
Iowa St.B120.140.1166.6764.790.050.03
MississippiSEC0.070.1160.7159.880.010.02
Rhode IslandA100.140.1166.6766.740.050.04
TCUB120.100.1161.5458.110.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1178.5777.770.060.06
Penn St.B100.140.1150.0048.800.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.130.1160.7160.550.030.02
ButlerBE0.130.1177.7874.820.070.05
DePaulBE0.100.1129.6327.86-0.04-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.1159.2658.080.010.02
StanfordP120.130.1148.0046.99-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0944.0042.78-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.110.0936.0035.94-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0969.2370.270.030.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0925.0025.84-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.110.0940.0041.65-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0952.1749.960.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.110.0948.0047.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.110.0942.3139.95-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.110.0981.4878.550.070.05
Little RockSB0.070.0944.0043.42-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0951.8550.750.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0841.6742.39-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.0853.8554.700.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0822.2222.92-0.04-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0886.2186.310.050.06
CaliforniaP120.100.0869.2367.330.040.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0851.8552.210.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0875.0074.360.030.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0814.8113.94-0.05-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.100.0853.8554.550.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0889.2987.670.050.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0871.4372.700.040.04
DukeACC0.070.0881.4878.450.040.05
LipscombASun0.100.0855.5655.680.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0848.1547.58-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.080.003.38-0.10-0.08
PennIvy0.070.0847.8350.34-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.100.0829.6328.76-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.100.0853.8552.620.010.00
KentuckySEC0.100.0882.1481.780.070.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0850.0049.410.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.070.0880.7778.230.040.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0825.9327.44-0.05-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0882.7681.870.040.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0628.0028.93-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0622.2224.27-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0646.1547.50-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0620.0021.77-0.02-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0614.2918.11-0.05-0.04
RiceCUSA0.040.0664.0063.510.010.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0676.0076.540.040.03
PurdueB100.080.0682.1480.770.050.04
OhioMAC0.070.0668.0068.550.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0648.1547.60-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0637.0435.10-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0655.5656.910.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0640.7440.75-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0648.0047.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0651.7252.460.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0661.5462.870.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0630.7733.69-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.070.0685.1984.810.050.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0661.5459.670.020.01
CornellIvy0.070.0625.0025.32-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0682.1480.660.040.03
George MasonA100.070.0662.9661.390.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0653.8554.960.010.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0666.6765.290.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0651.8551.270.000.00
KansasB120.030.0688.8987.370.030.04
Kansas St.B120.030.0662.9661.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0657.6957.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0630.7729.92-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0644.0045.06-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0662.9662.810.020.01
TexasB120.070.0635.7134.86-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0653.8552.810.000.00
Texas TechB120.070.0660.7159.300.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0682.1482.180.050.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0532.1430.40-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0581.4879.740.020.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0570.3767.210.030.02
VCUA100.070.0581.4879.390.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0570.3769.240.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0555.5654.920.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0581.4880.890.040.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0532.0032.04-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0566.6766.150.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0540.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0537.5037.60-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0569.5771.390.030.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0537.5039.90-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0538.4638.54-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0550.0049.680.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0541.6743.50-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0553.5751.530.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0553.8554.910.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0534.4833.53-0.01-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0562.9661.360.020.01
MercerSC0.070.0542.3142.85-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0562.9662.490.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0525.0026.25-0.02-0.03
New HampshireAE0.030.0556.0056.660.000.01
NJITASun0.030.0529.6330.60-0.01-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0512.0011.57-0.05-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0538.4640.06-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0553.8554.290.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0533.3334.37-0.01-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0561.5460.010.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0512.5014.90-0.05-0.04
UCLAP120.030.0588.8988.040.030.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0581.4881.510.040.03
WashingtonP120.070.0533.3332.51-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.030.0559.0960.200.010.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0371.4368.300.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0340.0042.25-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0369.2368.600.010.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0316.0018.14-0.03-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0357.6955.360.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0360.0059.390.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
NebraskaB100.040.0344.0042.74-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0314.8115.44-0.03-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0355.5655.300.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0365.3864.110.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0346.1546.35-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.040.0330.7732.11-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0350.0048.510.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0353.5752.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.040.0348.1549.49-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.040.0352.0053.220.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0355.5655.060.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0329.1731.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.1337.82-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0351.8549.730.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0342.3143.04-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0334.6236.80-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0325.0027.74-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0343.4843.29-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0368.0068.630.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0355.5655.670.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0342.3141.93-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.5752.940.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0360.7158.730.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0359.2657.860.010.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0374.0771.310.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3384.080.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0340.9144.14-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.0024.47-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0337.0436.28-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0360.0060.180.010.01