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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:239.1
Current RPI:250
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:149
Current Record:8-16
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:1-10
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:273



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17181.20.18%
13-18197.01.60%
12-19210.78.65%
11-20225.423.93%
10-21239.832.50%
9-22254.825.24%
8-23268.77.89%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama A&M (299.1)SWACH67-68L0%0.0
11-16Drake (298.1)MVCH79-74W100%0.0
11-19Southern (176.1)SWACA90-82L0%0.0
11-22Appalachian St. (253.9)SBH76-48W100%0.0
11-26Mercer (123.1)SCN61-71L0%0.0
11-27Stephen F. Austin (97.3)SlndN60-59W100%0.0
11-29Liberty (277.9)BSthN51-72W100%0.0
12-2New Orleans (296.0)SlndH64-62W100%0.0
12-5Georgia Tech (83.5)ACCH68-76L0%0.0
12-14Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACH63-49W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina (9.5)ACCA96-72L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi St. (171.8)SECA69-59L0%0.0
12-22Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAH59-40W100%0.0
12-29Memphis (126.0)AmerA77-65L0%0.0
1-2Connecticut (38.7)AmerH67-75L0%0.0
1-5Houston (99.4)AmerA63-45L0%0.0
1-10Tulsa (73.8)AmerH67-81L0%0.0
1-12South Florida (247.1)AmerA70-81W100%0.0
1-17SMU (12.3)AmerH45-60L0%0.0
1-19Connecticut (38.7)AmerA60-42L0%0.0
1-24Cincinnati (42.5)AmerA97-75L0%0.0
1-27South Florida (247.1)AmerH60-73L0%0.0
1-30Tulsa (73.8)AmerA62-48L0%0.0
2-4UCF (189.0)AmerH62-70L0%0.0
2-10East Carolina (188.4)AmerA0-032%-5.2
2-13Memphis (126.0)AmerH0-027%-6.7
2-17Houston (99.4)AmerH0-027%-6.6
2-24East Carolina (188.4)AmerH0-055%1.4
2-28SMU (12.3)AmerA0-02%-22.0
3-2UCF (189.0)AmerA0-028%-6.3
3-6Temple (91.3)AmerH0-033%-4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer26.4826.2729.0928.26-11.07-11.42
MemphisAmer2.624.0357.1456.630.370.53
HoustonAmer2.644.0071.4366.691.131.33
SMUAmer2.503.9990.0084.602.002.76
UCFAmer2.543.9952.6344.300.13-0.45
ConnecticutAmer4.503.9770.0070.541.801.63
East CarolinaAmer0.443.9745.4540.97-0.04-0.72
South FloridaAmer4.553.9718.1818.05-2.90-2.54
TulsaAmer4.463.9760.0057.090.890.56
TempleAmer0.562.4961.9058.130.130.40
CincinnatiAmer2.592.4672.7372.191.181.09
SouthernSWAC2.291.8161.1164.900.510.54
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.251.795.0014.49-2.02-1.27
Appalachian St.SB2.291.7328.5731.45-0.98-0.64
Alabama A&MSWAC2.191.7231.2542.28-0.82-0.27
North CarolinaACC2.181.6985.7180.011.561.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.191.6773.3377.721.020.93
Southern MissCUSA2.131.6635.2934.94-0.63-0.50
New OrleansSlnd2.151.6431.2540.01-0.81-0.33
Mississippi St.SEC2.141.6440.0039.74-0.43-0.34
Georgia TechACC2.131.6452.3851.180.100.04
LibertyBSth2.131.6433.3334.14-0.71-0.52
MercerSC2.131.6470.0069.550.850.64
DrakeMVC2.081.6123.8125.73-1.09-0.78
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2816.6720.71-0.14-0.16
Nicholls St.Slnd0.210.2510.0015.28-0.16-0.18
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.2347.6257.27-0.010.03
South CarolinaSEC0.280.2185.7176.030.200.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.220.2050.0056.540.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.220.2026.3233.83-0.10-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.2033.3334.18-0.07-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.2021.7424.60-0.12-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.1710.5325.37-0.17-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1717.3921.76-0.11-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.270.1775.0072.220.130.07
FurmanSC0.240.1654.5553.780.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1690.0086.120.110.11
Central ArkansasSlnd0.220.1516.6724.27-0.15-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.180.1547.3750.51-0.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1423.8128.31-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1430.0033.57-0.06-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.200.1450.0054.850.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1440.9138.03-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.190.1320.0023.76-0.12-0.07
George WashingtonA100.180.1377.2771.670.100.06
Ohio St.B100.190.1358.3354.120.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1352.1749.340.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.190.1366.6762.710.060.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1218.7526.09-0.00-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1273.6870.400.060.05
LamarSlnd0.170.1233.3332.69-0.06-0.04
UABCUSA0.150.1181.8278.320.100.06
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1152.1754.140.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1126.3236.93-0.07-0.03
DavidsonA100.150.1157.8955.400.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1154.5555.310.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1176.1979.640.070.06
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1136.3642.19-0.03-0.02
VCUA100.190.1177.2776.780.100.06
StetsonASun0.050.1125.0029.75-0.03-0.04
WoffordSC0.140.1138.1043.35-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.1168.1863.720.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.1177.2776.130.050.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.1140.0044.95-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.140.1172.7367.980.070.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1163.6456.050.030.01
New HampshireAE0.140.1152.6351.510.010.00
TexasB120.190.1068.1861.780.070.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.1065.0068.750.030.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0955.5650.840.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0953.3355.180.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.0918.7533.17-0.08-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0933.3333.55-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0947.6247.96-0.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.160.0935.0036.57-0.05-0.02
BradleyMVC0.110.098.709.77-0.09-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0973.9176.040.050.05
MassachusettsA100.110.0942.8639.84-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0855.0048.870.02-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.110.0847.6252.92-0.010.00
RadfordBSth0.100.0852.3853.620.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.0857.1452.310.020.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.085.267.22-0.09-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.0857.8961.920.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0814.2916.31-0.08-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0881.8281.010.070.05
WyomingMWC0.100.0840.9140.46-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.0861.1158.300.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.0835.0034.93-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0857.1457.930.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0825.0029.91-0.05-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0863.6459.440.010.02
TCUB120.100.0845.4537.84-0.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.0860.0061.350.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0822.7323.64-0.05-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.0868.1863.250.040.02
KentuckySEC0.140.0872.7369.690.060.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0880.9575.640.030.04
Texas St.SB0.100.0841.1840.28-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0831.8226.61-0.02-0.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0863.6462.340.010.02
DukeACC0.050.0872.7369.920.020.03
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0847.6247.86-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.090.0881.8277.490.060.04
MarylandB100.140.0886.9681.770.100.05
PittsburghACC0.050.0880.0070.290.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.120.0661.9058.190.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0630.0029.46-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0625.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0650.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0614.2913.97-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.110.0676.1967.350.060.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0625.0029.29-0.05-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0642.8647.27-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0657.8961.480.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0619.0522.35-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0626.3227.34-0.02-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0663.6465.480.010.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0665.0063.370.030.02
DuquesneA100.110.0666.6758.760.040.01
NorthwesternB100.110.0666.6763.480.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0628.5734.73-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0685.7184.560.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.0044.39-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0652.1747.620.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0640.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0628.5728.88-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.0640.9143.37-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0675.0073.480.020.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0635.0031.39-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.670.020.02
VMISC0.050.0616.6718.97-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0542.8637.19-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0530.0034.84-0.04-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0533.3331.83-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0572.7366.970.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0538.1042.99-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0521.0523.70-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.090.0559.0959.680.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0566.6761.680.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.055.2610.18-0.08-0.04
OhioMAC0.090.0560.0057.960.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0550.0045.730.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0540.9143.01-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0560.0054.590.020.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0554.5555.990.000.01
StanfordP120.050.0552.6347.690.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0581.8281.010.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0515.0015.65-0.03-0.04
WisconsinB100.050.0560.8755.900.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0572.2273.760.020.03
ButlerBE0.050.0568.1866.490.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0560.0056.080.010.01
NebraskaB100.090.0552.1751.560.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.100.0550.0048.260.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0586.3685.330.030.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0573.9175.010.040.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0545.0041.83-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0552.1754.400.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0563.6461.810.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0513.6413.80-0.07-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0561.9059.930.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0556.5253.460.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0536.8437.30-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0541.6740.25-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0569.5768.670.000.02
MaineAE0.090.0536.3635.58-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.0043.19-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0552.1754.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0526.0930.33-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0590.4884.890.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0531.8235.16-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0571.4370.810.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0531.5833.51-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0572.7368.630.040.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0547.6252.96-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.090.0533.3332.88-0.03-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0575.0071.280.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0523.8125.03-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0581.8276.020.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0552.1747.250.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0545.4542.14-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0352.1750.240.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0326.0925.56-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0370.0068.920.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0352.3854.240.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9060.410.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0354.5561.950.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.8957.330.010.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0359.0959.470.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0370.5974.500.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0334.7841.59-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0370.0069.360.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.95-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0336.3635.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0381.8279.900.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0322.7324.28-0.03-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.8956.110.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0359.0958.100.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0368.4271.820.020.01
BryantNEC0.050.0326.0927.58-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0310.0014.87-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0350.0053.090.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0352.3853.820.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
La SalleA100.000.0321.0520.91-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0326.0927.81-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0336.3630.98-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0335.2934.69-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0381.8277.440.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0345.4547.97-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.3857.440.000.00
UtahP120.000.0372.7368.550.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0359.0962.730.000.01
ColgatePat0.050.0342.8643.53-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0352.1752.980.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0357.1457.880.010.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.420.020.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0372.7368.840.020.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0359.0955.550.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0325.0029.52-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.350.010.00
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02