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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Tulane

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:223.0
Current RPI:223
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:206
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16223.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8NJIT (308.0)indH75-64W100%0.0
11-13Southern (171.0)SWACA73-79W100%0.0
11-16Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH65-59W100%0.0
11-23Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH86-91L0%0.0
11-26Colgate (256.0)PatH86-98L0%0.0
11-29Texas St. (307.0)SBN52-70L0%0.0
11-30Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCN72-102L0%0.0
12-4Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA72-57L0%0.0
12-7Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH70-65W100%0.0
12-17Washington (104.0)P12H62-73L0%0.0
12-21Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH84-66W100%0.0
12-22Northeastern (222.0)CAAH65-62W100%0.0
12-28Kansas St. (51.0)B12N72-41L0%0.0
1-2Hofstra (277.0)CAAH61-58W100%0.0
1-9Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA97-71L0%0.0
1-11North Texas (195.0)CUSAA62-73W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH45-73L0%0.0
1-18Rice (299.0)CUSAH58-41W100%0.0
1-23East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA54-59W100%0.0
1-25Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA70-64L0%0.0
2-1Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA78-47L0%0.0
2-7Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH64-63W100%0.0
2-9Marshall (276.0)CUSAH68-65W100%0.0
2-13Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA71-44L0%0.0
2-15UAB (152.0)CUSAA80-86W100%0.0
2-20UTEP (103.0)CUSAH54-72L0%0.0
2-22UTSA (306.0)CUSAH68-56W100%0.0
2-26Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH72-64W100%0.0
3-2FIU (202.0)CUSAA73-47L0%0.0
3-6Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH51-68L0%0.0
3-12North Texas (195.0)CUSAN66-61W100%0.0
3-13Tulsa (73.0)CUSAN70-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneCUSA25.9825.9845.2145.21-2.49-2.49
TulsaCUSA3.643.6461.2961.290.820.82
Southern MissCUSA3.613.6179.3179.312.122.12
North TexasCUSA3.613.6148.1548.15-0.13-0.13
Louisiana TechCUSA2.212.2178.1278.121.241.24
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.132.1370.0070.000.850.85
CharlotteCUSA2.132.1356.6756.670.280.28
UTEPCUSA2.112.1166.6766.670.700.70
Old DominionCUSA2.082.0846.8846.88-0.13-0.13
East CarolinaCUSA2.082.0846.4346.43-0.15-0.15
MarshallCUSA2.082.0830.0030.00-0.83-0.83
RiceCUSA2.082.0818.5218.52-1.31-1.31
UABCUSA2.072.0757.1457.140.300.30
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.052.0527.5927.59-0.92-0.92
UTSACUSA2.052.0523.0823.08-1.10-1.10
FIUCUSA2.032.0344.4444.44-0.23-0.23
Jackson St.SWAC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
SouthernSWAC1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
Alabama St.SWAC1.671.6759.2659.260.310.31
NortheasternCAA1.661.6635.4835.48-0.48-0.48
HofstraCAA1.641.6431.2531.25-0.62-0.62
Northern KentuckyASun1.621.6227.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.621.6251.7251.720.060.06
Texas St.SB1.611.6117.8617.86-1.04-1.04
Wake ForestACC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B121.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
ColgatePat1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
NJITind1.591.5937.5037.50-0.40-0.40
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.561.5630.0030.00-0.62-0.62
WashingtonP121.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.200.2023.3323.33-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.190.1930.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.190.1914.8114.81-0.13-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.11
OklahomaB120.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
DrexelCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
TCUB120.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1193.1093.100.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1024.0024.00-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
LafayettePat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
SeattleWAC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01