Tulane

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	250.0
Current RPI:	250
Expected SOS:	236
Current SOS:	236
Current Record:	13-16
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	3-14
Expected Conf Record:	3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-2
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	124
Expected OOC SOS:	340

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-16	250.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	H	72-63	W	100%
11-15	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	H	96-50	W	100%
11-18	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	H	73-52	W	100%
11-22	Navy (327.0)	Pat	A	55-57	W	100%
11-25	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	H	83-41	W	100%
11-27	San Diego (192.0)	WCC	H	65-46	W	100%
11-30	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	H	78-53	W	100%
12-3	Georgia Tech (197.0)	ACC	H	57-52	W	100%
12-6	Wofford (178.0)	SC	A	61-50	L	0%
12-11	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	59-51	W	100%
12-22	Syracuse (1.0)	BE	A	80-61	L	0%
12-31	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	A	42-53	W	100%
1-4	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	60-53	L	0%
1-7	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	H	66-71	L	0%
1-14	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	H	49-50	L	0%
1-18	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	A	60-56	L	0%
1-21	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	H	66-58	W	100%
1-25	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	H	80-74	W	100%
1-28	Rice (171.0)	CUSA	A	88-74	L	0%
2-1	Marshall (43.0)	CUSA	A	63-44	L	0%
2-4	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	H	75-54	W	100%
2-11	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	A	54-52	L	0%
2-15	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	H	64-82	L	0%
2-18	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	A	81-73	L	0%
2-22	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	A	64-50	L	0%
2-25	Tulsa (120.0)	CUSA	H	69-73	L	0%
2-29	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	82-53	L	0%
3-3	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	H	49-66	L	0%
3-7	UAB (112.0)	CUSA	N	72-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tulane	CUSA	26.18	26.18	40.17	40.17	-5.15	-5.15
Texas El Paso	CUSA	4.22	4.22	46.67	46.67	-0.28	-0.28
Rice	CUSA	4.19	4.19	44.44	44.44	-0.47	-0.47
Houston	CUSA	4.15	4.15	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Tulsa	CUSA	4.13	4.13	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Southern Methodist	CUSA	4.13	4.13	35.71	35.71	-1.18	-1.18
UAB	CUSA	4.08	4.08	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Marshall	CUSA	2.57	2.57	59.38	59.38	0.48	0.48
Memphis	CUSA	2.46	2.46	75.76	75.76	1.27	1.27
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.43	2.43	73.33	73.33	1.14	1.14
Central Florida	CUSA	2.42	2.42	65.52	65.52	0.75	0.75
East Carolina	CUSA	2.42	2.42	38.46	38.46	-0.56	-0.56
Southern	SWAC	1.99	1.99	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.93	1.93	20.00	20.00	-1.16	-1.16
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.91	1.91	25.93	25.93	-0.92	-0.92
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.81	1.81	21.43	21.43	-1.04	-1.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.78	1.78	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.76	1.76	36.67	36.67	-0.47	-0.47
San Diego	WCC	1.75	1.75	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Navy	Pat	1.75	1.75	7.41	7.41	-1.49	-1.49
Syracuse	BE	1.75	1.75	93.75	93.75	1.53	1.53
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.72	1.72	29.63	29.63	-0.70	-0.70
Texas Pan American	GWC	1.72	1.72	25.93	25.93	-0.83	-0.83
Wofford	SC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.33	0.33	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.33	0.33	20.00	20.00	-0.20	-0.20
Texas Christian	MWC	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.25	0.25	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.25	0.25	14.29	14.29	-0.18	-0.18
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.24	0.24	34.48	34.48	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.19	0.19	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	34.62	34.62	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
South Alabama	SB	0.18	0.18	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.93	25.93	-0.07	-0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.15	0.15	34.62	34.62	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	96.43	96.43	0.13	0.13
Texas A&M	B12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	6.90	6.90	-0.10	-0.10
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	83.87	83.87	0.08	0.08
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.09	0.09	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01