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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Tulane

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:175.0
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:202
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14175.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Georgia Tech (149.0)ACCA79-61L0%0.0
11-13Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACH65-55W100%0.0
11-16Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumH76-52W100%0.0
11-18Chicago St. (320.0)GWCH79-51W100%0.0
11-21Nebraska (104.0)B10A61-57L0%0.0
11-24Southern (180.0)SWACH68-65W100%0.0
12-1Navy (308.0)PatH51-41W100%0.0
12-4Nicholls St. (296.0)SlndH65-48W100%0.0
12-8San Diego (165.0)WCCA78-72L0%0.0
12-19Texas Pan American (306.0)GWCH76-49W100%0.0
12-20Pepperdine (212.0)WCCH69-54W100%0.0
12-22Hofstra (325.0)CAAA62-83W100%0.0
12-30Alabama (60.0)SECA50-53W100%0.0
1-4Wofford (250.0)SCH62-48W100%0.0
1-9Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAH57-66L0%0.0
1-12Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAA59-53L0%0.0
1-19Tulsa (127.0)CUSAH75-72W100%0.0
1-22Memphis (12.0)CUSAA71-60L0%0.0
1-26Rice (324.0)CUSAH73-66W100%0.0
1-30Central Florida (103.0)CUSAH50-58L0%0.0
2-2Texas El Paso (95.0)CUSAA62-50L0%0.0
2-6Marshall (208.0)CUSAH91-75W100%0.0
2-9Houston (197.0)CUSAA85-88W100%0.0
2-13Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAA71-60L0%0.0
2-16Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAH78-67W100%0.0
2-23Rice (324.0)CUSAA64-89W100%0.0
2-27UAB (144.0)CUSAH71-76L0%0.0
3-2Tulsa (127.0)CUSAA78-66L0%0.0
3-6East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA88-85L0%0.0
3-9Houston (197.0)CUSAH94-96L0%0.0
3-13Marshall (208.0)CUSAN66-64W100%0.0
3-14Memphis (12.0)CUSAN81-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneCUSA26.1726.1754.5554.552.382.38
HoustonCUSA3.893.8960.7160.710.830.83
Texas El PasoCUSA3.843.8453.3353.330.260.26
TulsaCUSA3.843.8451.7251.720.130.13
RiceCUSA3.843.8414.8114.81-2.70-2.70
Southern MethodistCUSA3.793.7944.8344.83-0.39-0.39
MemphisCUSA3.773.7787.5087.502.832.83
MarshallCUSA3.713.7141.3841.38-0.64-0.64
Southern MississippiCUSA2.292.2970.9770.970.960.96
UABCUSA2.272.2745.1645.16-0.22-0.22
East CarolinaCUSA2.212.2152.0052.000.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA2.192.1960.7160.710.470.47
Chicago St.GWC1.811.8125.9325.93-0.87-0.87
Texas Pan AmericanGWC1.731.7344.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Nebraska OmahaSum1.691.6935.7135.71-0.48-0.48
San DiegoWCC1.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
NebraskaB101.691.6943.7543.75-0.21-0.21
HofstraCAA1.661.6620.0020.00-1.00-1.00
PepperdineWCC1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.621.6238.7138.71-0.36-0.36
Georgia TechACC1.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
Nicholls St.Slnd1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
SouthernSWAC1.591.5971.4371.430.680.68
AlabamaSEC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
WoffordSC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Texas ChristianB120.280.2832.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Houston BaptistGWC0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
New Orleansind0.190.1918.1818.18-0.12-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
St. Mary'sWCC0.150.1581.2581.250.100.10
NC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyGWC0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
GramblingSWAC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Brigham YoungWCC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1385.1985.190.090.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
OhioMAC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1148.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Oregon St.P120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.7593.750.090.09
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
CreightonMVC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
WyomingMWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
IowaB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
SamfordSC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0628.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00