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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:156.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:140
Current SOS:306
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:148
Expected OOC SOS:290



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-535.00.01%
23-637.80.04%
22-753.80.29%
21-866.60.90%
20-982.42.52%
19-1098.05.76%
18-11114.210.84%
17-12132.716.59%
16-13151.719.25%
15-14171.417.89%
14-15191.413.44%
13-16211.17.81%
12-17231.33.28%
11-18250.11.17%
10-19265.20.17%
9-20281.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (162.0)ACCH49-71L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACH100-61W100%0.0
11-25Southern (310.7)SWACH74-59W100%0.0
11-28Southeastern Louisiana (240.5)SlndH71-61W100%0.0
11-30Tennessee Tech (194.7)OVCH73-68W100%0.0
12-3Loyola Chicago (143.3)MVCA70-83W100%0.0
12-6Mississippi St. (176.6)SECH59-54W100%0.0
12-16Savannah St. (318.7)MEACH75-67W100%0.0
12-19Jackson St. (303.6)SWACH0-087%13.1
12-22Washington (41.5)P12A0-012%-14.1
12-28St. John's (44.0)BEN0-018%-11.0
12-31East Carolina (227.6)AmerA0-046%-1.1
1-3Memphis (89.4)AmerA0-020%-9.9
1-7Temple (119.2)AmerH0-059%2.7
1-11South Florida (155.0)AmerH0-063%3.8
1-14UCF (273.3)AmerA0-062%3.5
1-17Houston (149.9)AmerA0-034%-5.0
1-21SMU (38.2)AmerH0-033%-5.2
1-24Memphis (89.4)AmerH0-047%-0.9
1-27Tulsa (96.0)AmerH0-051%0.2
1-31Temple (119.2)AmerA0-030%-6.3
2-7Connecticut (78.4)AmerH0-044%-1.6
2-14Cincinnati (64.6)AmerA0-017%-11.4
2-19UCF (273.3)AmerH0-085%12.5
2-22Connecticut (78.4)AmerA0-018%-10.6
2-25Tulsa (96.0)AmerA0-023%-8.8
2-28Cincinnati (64.6)AmerH0-042%-2.5
3-4Houston (149.9)AmerH0-063%4.0
3-7South Florida (155.0)AmerA0-033%-5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer28.0026.3178.1250.6115.750.32
South FloridaAmer0.004.3250.0048.000.00-0.17
HoustonAmer0.004.2983.3359.090.000.78
UCFAmer0.004.2850.0030.430.00-1.68
MemphisAmer0.004.2750.0058.520.000.73
TempleAmer0.004.2760.0053.940.000.34
CincinnatiAmer0.004.2675.0065.010.001.28
ConnecticutAmer0.004.2657.1455.110.000.43
TulsaAmer0.004.2655.5656.780.000.58
East CarolinaAmer0.002.6837.5036.68-0.00-0.71
SMUAmer0.002.6866.6770.660.001.11
Jackson St.SWAC0.521.9310.0041.23-0.42-0.34
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.701.9311.1119.01-5.21-1.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd7.031.9012.5044.97-5.27-0.19
SouthernSWAC6.251.840.0035.35-6.25-0.54
Tennessee TechOVC6.941.7857.1452.050.990.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC6.251.7580.0056.893.750.24
Mississippi St.SEC6.561.7566.6749.282.19-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC6.251.7220.0028.75-3.75-0.73
St. John'sBE0.001.7287.5064.060.000.48
Wake ForestACC6.251.7244.4435.79-0.69-0.49
WashingtonP120.001.72100.0069.960.000.69
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.2311.1130.96-0.00-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.2344.4469.77-0.000.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.230.0038.78-0.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.2120.0026.45-0.00-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.2011.1145.10-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.200.0011.08-0.00-0.16
DukeACC0.000.20100.0087.520.000.15
North Carolina St.ACC0.310.2080.0063.530.190.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1887.5085.930.000.13
Florida St.ACC0.000.1844.4433.13-0.00-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0032.02-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1733.3363.92-0.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0032.62-0.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1522.2236.43-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.280.1555.5639.260.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6765.150.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.350.1488.8964.140.270.04
GonzagaWCC0.350.1490.0091.020.280.12
MississippiSEC0.390.1466.6751.450.130.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1242.8638.69-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.520.1220.0020.84-0.31-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3334.47-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1233.3332.65-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.1250.0053.430.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1260.0064.120.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0047.17-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.390.1266.6755.560.130.01
CreightonBE0.000.1272.7351.370.000.00
OklahomaB120.350.1277.7868.030.190.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.390.1233.3339.81-0.13-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1244.4444.67-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.310.1277.7871.340.170.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1188.8964.060.000.03
StanfordP120.000.1171.4361.160.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.1133.3340.42-0.10-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1160.0064.780.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0013.85-0.00-0.08
Oregon St.P120.760.1175.0050.490.380.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.390.1170.0066.510.160.04
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0082.270.000.07
XavierBE0.000.1180.0071.140.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0033.87-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.280.0942.8655.73-0.040.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0920.0020.57-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0013.10-0.00-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0950.0051.980.000.00
WinthropBSth0.570.0933.3351.71-0.190.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0920.0037.42-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0058.490.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.310.090.0022.93-0.31-0.05
IndianaB100.600.0980.0057.560.360.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.53-0.00-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.0957.1445.530.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0937.5032.05-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0920.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0966.6773.810.000.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0942.8652.83-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0922.2230.95-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.700.0977.7864.850.390.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0925.0049.05-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.0988.8975.070.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.390.0944.4444.49-0.04-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0977.7877.550.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.310.090.0019.38-0.31-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3338.27-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0825.0040.22-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0877.7875.600.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0862.5078.030.000.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.0837.5054.91-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.350.0837.5031.71-0.09-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0662.5065.100.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0079.360.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0050.220.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.380.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5076.910.000.03
North FloridaASun0.390.0650.0061.230.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1129.36-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0017.65-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7861.940.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.0644.4447.24-0.04-0.00
USCP120.390.0660.0037.100.08-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8639.29-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0067.800.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7173.700.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.01-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.060.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.280.06100.0085.390.280.04
Miami FLACC0.280.0690.0075.840.230.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6776.390.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2932.21-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.390.0688.8964.670.300.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.650.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.0614.2945.16-0.22-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0066.870.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5746.92-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0065.960.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0015.96-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0045.540.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.220.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.640.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.570.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0050.27-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.220.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.46-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0039.09-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.83-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0662.5057.800.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.480.000.00
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.780.000.04
UtahP120.000.0677.7880.520.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.350.0666.6772.150.120.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.540.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0028.86-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0067.550.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0670.0064.560.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.080.000.01
TCUB120.760.06100.0067.440.760.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.0628.5726.77-0.13-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.090.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.21-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.200.000.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.900.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.920.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6742.930.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.38-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5639.850.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0642.8655.87-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.390.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4350.790.000.00
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.110.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.61-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.520.0371.4360.170.220.01
Michigan St.B100.520.0370.0070.960.210.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.17-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5047.890.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.520.0342.8635.74-0.07-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2231.80-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.390.0344.4450.93-0.040.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.0337.5048.43-0.07-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0344.4449.79-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0333.3343.17-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.280.0360.0038.270.06-0.01
LipscombASun0.390.0325.0042.82-0.20-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.280.0325.0038.94-0.14-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.650.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.06-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0371.4367.660.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.30-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0330.0028.54-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0371.4377.180.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6753.260.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.62-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.390.0340.0049.29-0.08-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2238.58-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0340.0058.50-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.930.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.940.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0320.0033.83-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.09-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.72-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.380.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2932.16-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.92-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8638.51-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.450.0355.5631.620.05-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4356.890.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.020.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.95-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5045.72-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7866.040.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.470.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.450.0350.0053.970.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.450.0322.2245.74-0.25-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6741.850.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.16-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.310.0366.6772.270.100.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.0337.5037.71-0.08-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.310.0342.8636.73-0.04-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.0350.0033.140.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.310.0366.6744.720.10-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.250.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0362.5053.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.98-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0056.190.000.00
SamfordSC0.310.0333.3331.09-0.10-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.740.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.650.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.250.00-0.01