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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:227.0
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:128
Current Record:12-22
Expected Record:12-22
Current Conf Record:5-16
Expected Conf Record:5-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:235
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-22227.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH67-68L0%0.0
11-16Drake (325.0)MVCH79-74W100%0.0
11-19Southern (186.0)SWACA90-82L0%0.0
11-22Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH76-48W100%0.0
11-26Mercer (194.0)SCN61-71L0%0.0
11-27Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndN60-59W100%0.0
11-29Liberty (264.0)BSthN51-72W100%0.0
12-2New Orleans (343.0)SlndH64-62W100%0.0
12-5Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH68-76L0%0.0
12-14Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH63-49W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina (5.0)ACCA96-72L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA69-59L0%0.0
12-22Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH59-40W100%0.0
12-29Memphis (139.0)AmerA77-65L0%0.0
1-2Connecticut (32.0)AmerH67-75L0%0.0
1-5Houston (87.0)AmerA63-45L0%0.0
1-10Tulsa (58.0)AmerH67-81L0%0.0
1-12South Florida (230.0)AmerA70-81W100%0.0
1-17SMU (13.0)AmerH45-60L0%0.0
1-19Connecticut (32.0)AmerA60-42L0%0.0
1-24Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA97-75L0%0.0
1-27South Florida (230.0)AmerH60-73L0%0.0
1-30Tulsa (58.0)AmerA62-48L0%0.0
2-4UCF (219.0)AmerH62-70L0%0.0
2-10East Carolina (217.0)AmerA92-100W100%0.0
2-13Memphis (139.0)AmerH94-87W100%0.0
2-17Houston (87.0)AmerH69-82L0%0.0
2-24East Carolina (217.0)AmerH73-79L0%0.0
2-28SMU (13.0)AmerA74-53L0%0.0
3-2UCF (219.0)AmerA73-65L0%0.0
3-6Temple (60.0)AmerH56-64L0%0.0
3-10UCF (219.0)AmerA63-65W100%0.0
3-11Houston (87.0)AmerN69-72W100%0.0
3-12Memphis (139.0)AmerN74-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer26.4526.4532.9332.93-9.03-9.03
MemphisAmer5.285.2854.8454.840.510.51
UCFAmer5.165.1637.0437.04-1.34-1.34
HoustonAmer5.155.1571.4371.432.212.21
ConnecticutAmer3.853.8568.7568.751.441.44
South FloridaAmer3.803.8022.5822.58-2.08-2.08
TulsaAmer3.773.7762.0762.070.910.91
East CarolinaAmer3.753.7536.6736.67-1.00-1.00
SMUAmer3.723.7282.1482.142.392.39
TempleAmer2.462.4664.5264.520.710.71
CincinnatiAmer2.372.3767.7467.740.840.84
SouthernSWAC1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.641.6423.3323.33-0.88-0.88
Appalachian St.SB1.571.5730.0030.00-0.63-0.63
Alabama A&MSWAC1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
North CarolinaACC1.541.5481.8281.820.980.98
Southern MissCUSA1.541.5426.9226.92-0.71-0.71
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.521.5285.1985.191.071.07
New OrleansSlnd1.501.5026.9226.92-0.69-0.69
LibertyBSth1.491.4935.7135.71-0.43-0.43
MercerSC1.491.4953.3353.330.100.10
Mississippi St.SEC1.491.4943.3343.33-0.20-0.20
Georgia TechACC1.491.4956.2556.250.190.19
DrakeMVC1.471.4720.6920.69-0.86-0.86
Nicholls St.Slnd0.270.2725.8125.81-0.13-0.13
Grambling St.SWAC0.260.2614.2914.29-0.18-0.18
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2024.2424.24-0.10-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1522.8622.86-0.08-0.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
FurmanSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Ohio St.B100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1120.8320.83-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0979.3179.310.060.06
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
MichiganB100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0718.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
AlbanyAE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0413.7913.79-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00