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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Tulane

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:236.1
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:319
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-965.00.01%
19-1096.20.05%
18-11106.90.15%
17-12130.20.61%
16-13143.11.76%
15-14163.73.99%
14-15182.77.40%
13-16202.812.40%
12-17222.115.92%
11-18240.818.73%
10-19259.216.74%
9-20275.411.40%
8-21290.26.64%
7-22301.82.95%
6-23313.40.92%
5-24322.20.30%
4-25333.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tulane.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Wake Forest (108.2)ACCH49-71L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi Valley St. (346.1)SWACH100-61W100%0.0
11-25Southern (301.9)SWACH74-59W100%0.0
11-28Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH0-083%11.4
11-30Tennessee Tech (248.9)OVCH0-067%5.3
12-3Loyola Chicago (215.1)MVCA0-039%-3.4
12-6Mississippi St. (179.4)SECH0-048%-0.6
12-16Savannah St. (294.5)MEACH0-084%12.1
12-19Jackson St. (285.0)SWACH0-076%8.6
12-22Washington (106.0)P12A0-014%-13.0
12-28St. John's (108.5)BEN0-022%-9.2
12-31East Carolina (234.2)AmerA0-040%-3.0
1-3Memphis (59.7)AmerA0-09%-16.1
1-7Temple (133.4)AmerH0-045%-1.5
1-11South Florida (116.3)AmerH0-041%-2.6
1-14UCF (187.3)AmerA0-030%-6.4
1-17Houston (134.2)AmerA0-020%-10.0
1-21SMU (36.8)AmerH0-019%-10.8
1-24Memphis (59.7)AmerH0-023%-8.9
1-27Tulsa (85.1)AmerH0-032%-5.8
1-31Temple (133.4)AmerA0-024%-8.6
2-7Connecticut (24.9)AmerH0-016%-11.8
2-14Cincinnati (75.6)AmerA0-015%-12.4
2-19UCF (187.3)AmerH0-053%0.8
2-22Connecticut (24.9)AmerA0-06%-18.9
2-25Tulsa (85.1)AmerA0-014%-12.9
2-28Cincinnati (75.6)AmerH0-033%-5.3
3-4Houston (134.2)AmerH0-041%-2.8
3-7South Florida (116.3)AmerA0-021%-9.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tulane's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tulane's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tulane.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TulaneAmer30.8326.3346.1532.72-2.37-9.10
South FloridaAmer0.004.3375.0053.220.000.28
HoustonAmer0.004.3166.6759.680.000.83
UCFAmer0.004.30100.0048.140.00-0.16
TempleAmer0.004.2860.0048.840.00-0.10
MemphisAmer0.004.2850.0066.110.001.38
CincinnatiAmer0.004.28100.0057.930.000.68
ConnecticutAmer0.004.2775.0068.970.001.62
TulsaAmer0.004.2775.0058.010.000.68
SMUAmer0.002.7040.0066.02-0.000.86
East CarolinaAmer0.002.6933.3332.88-0.00-0.92
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.9320.0044.19-0.00-0.22
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC16.671.930.0018.40-16.67-1.22
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.900.0028.48-0.00-0.82
SouthernSWAC16.671.840.0036.68-16.67-0.49
Tennessee TechOVC0.001.7866.6745.110.00-0.17
Mississippi St.SEC2.081.75100.0047.182.08-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.7550.0040.340.00-0.34
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.7240.0033.71-0.00-0.56
St. John'sBE0.001.72100.0051.110.000.04
Wake ForestACC16.671.7250.0045.420.00-0.16
WashingtonP120.001.72100.0054.840.000.17
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.2316.6731.76-0.00-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.230.0040.78-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.210.0031.74-0.00-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.210.0020.75-0.00-0.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.200.0038.95-0.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.20100.0084.950.000.14
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.20100.0061.980.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.18100.0083.950.000.13
Florida St.ACC0.000.1840.0039.52-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.180.0064.97-0.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.170.0066.91-0.000.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0032.98-0.00-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0032.72-0.00-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1525.0031.38-0.00-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0035.72-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6754.040.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1350.0051.850.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0030.030.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1220.0031.41-0.00-0.05
OklahomaB120.000.1266.6756.850.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0060.560.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1225.0036.61-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1266.6744.530.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1260.0059.230.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1250.0050.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1220.0053.43-0.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1280.0070.420.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.1280.0058.990.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.12100.0085.190.000.08
ArkansasSEC1.670.12100.0081.021.670.07
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0065.620.000.04
XavierBE0.000.12100.0079.400.000.07
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0078.020.000.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1266.6771.550.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0024.22-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1133.3346.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA2.080.1180.0070.941.250.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0060.830.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0021.34-0.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0925.0027.00-0.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0035.490.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0053.250.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0933.3354.56-0.000.01
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.500.000.04
MississippiSEC2.080.0975.0052.731.040.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0039.00-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0933.3368.48-0.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0043.100.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0051.72-0.000.00
IndianaB102.080.0980.0058.081.250.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0966.6759.490.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0030.42-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.54-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0034.82-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.080.0966.6749.540.69-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.09100.0087.570.000.07
Stony BrookAE0.000.0950.0066.080.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0025.45-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0055.110.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.090.0067.43-0.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0925.0025.51-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0046.74-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.090.0044.90-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0960.0066.760.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd1.670.090.0031.72-1.67-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3344.17-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0666.6762.900.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0065.470.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0044.920.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0073.990.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.10-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.550.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.930.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.250.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0059.500.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0625.0048.23-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.180.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.66-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.13-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0650.0028.900.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.710.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3329.16-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0675.0073.980.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.190.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0067.780.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0680.0063.110.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6774.280.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.650.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.72-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3330.02-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.140.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0081.280.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0069.870.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth1.670.0633.3350.48-0.560.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0037.60-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0067.890.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0055.150.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0023.12-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0052.47-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.680.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.250.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0036.60-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.30-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0044.79-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.120.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3349.98-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.63-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.280.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0065.600.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.160.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0018.08-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.350.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0666.6760.800.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0037.460.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0058.000.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.430.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0032.36-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3345.50-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.980.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0025.33-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0366.6769.740.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0045.09-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0046.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.770.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0057.210.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.030.0042.35-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.780.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.95-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3330.38-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.89-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.550.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.220.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.58-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.01-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.32-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3337.42-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.74-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0055.820.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.550.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.70-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.400.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0053.310.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3329.06-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0028.08-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.500.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0057.70-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.090.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0050.46-0.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.550.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
TCUB122.080.03100.0057.872.080.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3336.66-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0052.120.000.00
IonaMAAC1.670.0375.0073.890.830.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.46-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0071.450.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0039.42-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.740.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0040.15-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6750.750.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.460.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01