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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:284.4
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:202
Current Record:6-16
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:3-9
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:2.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:269
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16248.54.76%
11-17268.322.92%
10-18284.335.56%
9-19295.725.27%
8-20305.09.64%
7-21314.41.77%
6-22323.60.07%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Indiana (19.7)B10A78-53L0%0.0
11-15Butler (141.5)HorzA57-46L0%0.0
11-18Kennesaw St. (318.8)ASunH59-65L0%0.0
11-25Savannah St. (210.3)MEACH65-63W100%0.0
11-27Gardner Webb (269.3)BSthH74-76L0%0.0
12-1Georgia Southern (218.5)SCA84-76L0%0.0
12-3College of Charleston (129.6)SCA87-85L0%0.0
12-10Mercer (96.4)ASunA67-56L0%0.0
12-17Kentucky (3.3)SECA87-62L0%0.0
12-29Longwood (318.3)indH85-50W100%0.0
12-30Utah Valley (220.8)GWCH74-59W100%0.0
1-2Tennessee (138.4)SECA76-63L0%0.0
1-5Western Carolina (259.5)SCH78-62W100%0.0
1-7Appalachian St. (257.9)SCH65-63W100%0.0
1-12Wofford (177.8)SCH51-48W100%0.0
1-14Samford (250.7)SCA81-70L0%0.0
1-19NC Greensboro (256.5)SCA81-72L0%0.0
1-21Elon (212.2)SCA88-87L0%0.0
1-26Davidson (62.8)SCH63-64L0%0.0
1-28Georgia Southern (218.5)SCH72-75L0%0.0
2-2Western Carolina (259.5)SCA82-76L0%0.0
2-4Davidson (62.8)SCA88-61L0%0.0
2-9Elon (212.2)SCH0-066%4.5
2-11NC Greensboro (256.5)SCH0-076%7.7
2-15Appalachian St. (257.9)SCA0-043%-1.8
2-18The Citadel (332.3)SCH0-088%12.8
2-23Furman (238.9)SCA0-038%-3.4
2-25Samford (250.7)SCH0-070%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.4226.3421.9530.48-14.82-10.28
SamfordSC3.094.5330.0032.82-1.24-1.56
NC GreensboroSC2.894.4431.8231.26-1.05-1.67
Western CarolinaSC5.124.4133.3336.33-1.71-1.21
Appalachian St.SC3.004.4135.0037.86-0.90-1.07
ElonSC2.794.4050.0048.390.00-0.14
DavidsonSC5.064.3575.0075.632.532.23
Georgia SouthernSC5.064.3436.8438.37-1.33-1.01
College of CharlestonSC2.902.7256.5258.540.380.47
FurmanSC0.872.7245.4546.62-0.08-0.18
The CitadelSC0.672.729.5211.45-0.54-2.09
WoffordSC2.992.6959.0959.240.540.50
TennesseeSEC2.461.9742.8642.65-0.35-0.29
MercerASun2.371.9470.8371.260.990.83
KentuckySEC2.481.9495.8393.312.271.68
IndianaB102.471.9173.9174.931.180.95
ButlerHorz2.421.8847.8349.11-0.11-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth2.421.8831.8236.55-0.88-0.50
Savannah St.MEAC2.421.8857.1460.480.350.39
Kennesaw St.ASun2.321.854.357.83-2.12-1.56
Longwoodind2.271.7930.0026.78-0.91-0.83
Utah ValleyGWC2.271.7957.1459.930.320.35
East Tennessee St.ASun0.350.2850.0052.040.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.250.2820.8323.61-0.14-0.15
South CarolinaSEC0.290.2840.9139.60-0.05-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.360.2214.2916.80-0.26-0.15
VanderbiltSEC0.210.2169.5765.880.080.07
GeorgiaSEC0.240.2145.4541.17-0.02-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.200.1940.9143.65-0.04-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.250.1868.1867.720.090.06
StetsonASun0.280.1830.4329.57-0.11-0.07
Georgia St.CAA0.210.1766.6769.710.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.150.1686.9683.300.110.11
MassachusettsA100.200.1673.9168.650.100.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.1644.4441.65-0.02-0.03
AuburnSEC0.250.1654.1747.950.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.1670.8364.530.080.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1655.0060.350.010.03
DukeACC0.200.1682.6179.930.130.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.1547.8347.36-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.140.1543.4843.89-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.140.1548.0048.07-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.190.1562.5060.780.050.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1333.3338.39-0.04-0.03
Seattleind0.100.1322.2232.99-0.06-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.210.1347.8343.63-0.01-0.02
NavyPat0.150.139.5213.17-0.12-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1365.2263.550.050.03
CampbellBSth0.150.1357.6958.270.020.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1366.6763.500.030.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1345.0044.18-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1334.7834.75-0.03-0.04
ClemsonACC0.100.1347.8345.51-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1352.3853.290.000.01
High PointBSth0.150.1331.8232.81-0.05-0.04
RichmondA100.150.1350.0048.480.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1268.4268.620.050.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1270.8362.750.040.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1222.7324.64-0.08-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.1231.8234.86-0.02-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1269.5765.180.060.04
WisconsinB100.200.1275.0074.010.100.06
BelmontASun0.090.1270.8373.740.040.06
South Carolina UpstateASun0.190.1256.5256.800.020.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1279.1776.620.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1050.0051.750.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.1055.0054.810.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.1014.2917.12-0.08-0.07
North DakotaGWC0.050.1033.3341.30-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.160.1034.7837.18-0.05-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.160.1034.7835.19-0.05-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1039.1336.12-0.02-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1026.3229.85-0.05-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1060.8759.850.020.02
CharlotteA100.150.0950.0049.460.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0918.1819.91-0.03-0.06
KansasB120.150.0978.2678.420.080.05
BradleyMVC0.150.0924.0024.86-0.08-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.0980.9577.450.060.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.0971.4369.050.040.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0942.1145.89-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.098.7013.12-0.08-0.07
LouisvilleBE0.140.0979.1774.200.080.04
Penn St.B100.140.0941.6738.63-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.0752.3852.880.010.00
South FloridaBE0.110.0754.5548.540.01-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.110.0738.1037.80-0.03-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0740.9141.68-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0725.0028.48-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0760.8753.440.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0747.3752.90-0.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0785.7178.110.040.04
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0776.1975.980.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0719.0524.60-0.03-0.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0757.1460.720.010.01
WyomingMWC0.100.0776.1970.710.050.03
Chicago St.GWC0.050.079.0912.82-0.04-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0669.5770.420.020.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0635.0040.74-0.03-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.0654.5556.800.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0682.6180.500.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0681.8281.500.030.04
OaklandSum0.100.0648.0050.28-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.100.0665.2263.650.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0636.3640.96-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0672.7371.570.020.03
Iowa St.B120.100.0670.8366.500.040.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0683.3384.760.030.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0630.0031.40-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0662.5061.430.020.01
TowsonCAA0.050.064.005.27-0.05-0.06
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0680.0078.080.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.0639.1342.16-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0617.3920.75-0.06-0.04
HowardMEAC0.100.0621.7425.63-0.06-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0682.6181.410.030.04
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0628.5729.05-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.100.0669.5771.580.040.03
MissouriB120.090.0691.6787.920.080.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0635.0039.40-0.03-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0656.5257.810.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0641.6740.47-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0669.5770.160.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0647.8347.08-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.270.010.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0663.6456.680.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0678.2672.280.030.03
IowaB100.050.0654.1749.410.00-0.00
MichiganB100.090.0669.5766.330.040.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0677.2773.500.030.03
Ohio St.B100.090.0687.5085.410.070.04
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.020.030.02
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.78-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.76-0.04-0.02
DenverSB0.000.0370.8372.240.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.14-0.04-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.050.0314.2914.31-0.04-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.58-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0340.0040.17-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0347.6248.01-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0371.4373.990.020.02
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.29-0.05-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.950.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.02
Western KentuckySB0.000.0334.7834.46-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.86-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0338.8941.49-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.33-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0319.0519.39-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0323.8133.67-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.61-0.02-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.420.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.550.020.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0365.2262.350.020.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0376.0072.480.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.03-0.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0356.5254.280.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.110.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4547.09-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0336.0040.36-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.180.030.02
PittsburghBE0.050.0362.5059.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.470.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0390.9187.780.040.02
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.330.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.74-0.00-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.690.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.26-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0369.5761.840.000.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.290.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0378.2674.290.030.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.44-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0313.0414.47-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0350.0044.980.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6457.790.000.00
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.670.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.300.010.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.75-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.24-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0368.1868.980.020.01