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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:112.0
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:228
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-5
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:167
Expected OOC SOS:79



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10112.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Wisconsin (4.0)B10A89-45L0%0.0
11-18Butler (31.0)BEA70-48L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA69-67L0%0.0
11-26Robert Morris (171.0)NECH61-46W100%0.0
11-27Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH78-67W100%0.0
11-29Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA77-69L0%0.0
12-2Georgia (38.0)SECH55-86L0%0.0
12-11The Citadel (327.0)SCA48-67W100%0.0
12-16Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH93-81W100%0.0
12-19Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA68-58L0%0.0
12-22UAB (130.0)CUSAH83-67W100%0.0
12-29Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH78-60W100%0.0
1-3Furman (293.0)SCH72-60W100%0.0
1-5Wofford (47.0)SCH64-68L0%0.0
1-8Western Carolina (220.0)SCH66-60W100%0.0
1-10East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA71-74W100%0.0
1-15Samford (305.0)SCA76-82W100%0.0
1-22VMI (286.0)SCH86-64W100%0.0
1-24UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH81-72W100%0.0
1-29Mercer (212.0)SCA75-72L0%0.0
1-31The Citadel (327.0)SCH78-73W100%0.0
2-5Furman (293.0)SCA71-74W100%0.0
2-7Western Carolina (220.0)SCA73-70L0%0.0
2-12Wofford (47.0)SCA46-56W100%0.0
2-14Samford (305.0)SCH79-72W100%0.0
2-19Mercer (212.0)SCH74-61W100%0.0
2-21East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH67-59W100%0.0
2-26VMI (286.0)SCA82-86W100%0.0
2-28UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA58-61W100%0.0
3-7Furman (293.0)SCN67-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.4426.4468.7568.759.929.92
FurmanSC6.076.0728.5728.57-2.60-2.60
WoffordSC4.494.4983.3383.332.992.99
MercerSC4.484.4851.7251.720.150.15
The CitadelSC4.414.4132.0032.00-1.59-1.59
Western CarolinaSC4.404.4042.8642.86-0.63-0.63
VMISC4.394.3934.6234.62-1.35-1.35
UNC GreensboroSC4.394.3928.5728.57-1.88-1.88
SamfordSC4.374.3741.3841.38-0.75-0.75
East Tennessee St.SC4.364.3653.8553.850.340.34
Kennesaw St.ASun1.921.9224.1424.14-0.99-0.99
LipscombASun1.841.8440.7440.74-0.34-0.34
Northern KentuckyASun1.841.8440.7440.74-0.34-0.34
UABCUSA1.761.7656.2556.250.220.22
Tennessee TechOVC1.761.7633.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.741.7451.5251.520.050.05
WisconsinB101.721.7290.9190.911.411.41
GeorgiaSEC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
ButlerBE1.691.6967.7467.740.600.60
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.671.6771.4371.430.710.71
Robert MorrisNEC1.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
North FloridaASun0.260.2664.5264.520.080.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.260.2665.5265.520.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.220.2221.4321.43-0.13-0.13
MinnesotaB100.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
StetsonASun0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1759.2659.260.030.03
DukeACC0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1410.3410.34-0.11-0.11
West VirginiaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
Seton HallBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
FIUCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
WinthropBSth0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
High PointBSth0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
IndianaB100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UC DavisBW0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00