Chattanooga

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	292.0
Current RPI:	292
Expected SOS:	288
Current SOS:	288
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-9
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	265
Expected OOC SOS:	117

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	292.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	69-55	L	0%
11-18	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	65-77	L	0%
11-19	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	61-68	L	0%
11-20	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	63-71	L	0%
11-24	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	51-65	W	100%
12-1	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	55-81	L	0%
12-8	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	52-63	L	0%
12-11	Louisiana St. (86.0)	SEC	A	80-67	L	0%
12-16	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	53-63	L	0%
12-28	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	68-61	W	100%
12-29	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	76-69	W	100%
1-2	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	A	74-58	L	0%
1-5	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	70-74	W	100%
1-10	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	65-70	W	100%
1-12	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	86-59	L	0%
1-17	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	91-88	W	100%
1-19	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	81-90	L	0%
1-24	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	85-61	L	0%
1-27	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	77-69	L	0%
2-2	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	59-57	L	0%
2-7	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	89-76	W	100%
2-9	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	68-71	L	0%
2-11	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	62-59	W	100%
2-14	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	83-49	W	100%
2-16	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	78-58	L	0%
2-21	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	68-94	L	0%
2-23	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	72-68	W	100%
2-28	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	72-81	W	100%
3-2	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	86-60	L	0%
3-8	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	N	81-87	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Chattanooga	SC	26.33	26.33	34.03	34.03	-8.41	-8.41
NC Greensboro	SC	5.80	5.80	15.38	15.38	-4.02	-4.02
Western Carolina	SC	4.25	4.25	37.93	37.93	-1.03	-1.03
Elon	SC	4.25	4.25	64.29	64.29	1.21	1.21
Samford	SC	4.20	4.20	34.48	34.48	-1.30	-1.30
Appalachian St.	SC	4.19	4.19	44.44	44.44	-0.47	-0.47
College of Charleston	SC	4.17	4.17	70.97	70.97	1.75	1.75
The Citadel	SC	4.09	4.09	23.08	23.08	-2.20	-2.20
Furman	SC	2.63	2.63	17.86	17.86	-1.69	-1.69
Davidson	SC	2.60	2.60	77.42	77.42	1.43	1.43
Georgia Southern	SC	2.55	2.55	36.67	36.67	-0.68	-0.68
Wofford	SC	2.53	2.53	36.67	36.67	-0.67	-0.67
High Point	BSth	1.84	1.84	55.56	55.56	0.20	0.20
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.83	1.83	70.00	70.00	0.73	0.73
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.80	1.80	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Troy	SB	1.78	1.78	34.38	34.38	-0.56	-0.56
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.77	1.77	10.34	10.34	-1.41	-1.41
Mercer	ASun	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.73	1.73	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.72	1.72	80.00	80.00	1.03	1.03
Utah Valley	GWC	1.72	1.72	37.04	37.04	-0.45	-0.45
Kansas	B12	1.69	1.69	84.85	84.85	1.18	1.18
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.67	1.67	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Austin Peay	OVC	0.25	0.25	20.69	20.69	-0.15	-0.15
Wake Forest	ACC	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.22	0.22	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.20	0.20	17.24	17.24	-0.13	-0.13
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.19	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.17	0.17	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
East Carolina	CUSA	0.14	0.14	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.13	0.13	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	14.81	14.81	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01