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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:50.0
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:205
Current Record:27-5
Expected Record:27-5
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-550.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Georgia (62.0)SECA90-92W100%0.0
11-21Illinois (149.0)B10A77-81W100%0.0
11-23Iowa St. (23.0)B12A83-63L0%0.0
11-27Alabama St. (265.0)SWACN95-58W100%0.0
11-28Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCN52-62W100%0.0
11-30Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA64-54L0%0.0
12-12Dayton (21.0)A10A59-61W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH80-69W100%0.0
12-18Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH78-66W100%0.0
12-22Radford (192.0)BSthH77-75W100%0.0
12-29Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA56-80W100%0.0
1-2The Citadel (322.0)SCA78-84W100%0.0
1-5Mercer (194.0)SCH74-62W100%0.0
1-9Furman (167.0)SCA70-55L0%0.0
1-11Wofford (199.0)SCA68-77W100%0.0
1-14Western Carolina (166.0)SCH77-58W100%0.0
1-16East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH94-84W100%0.0
1-21UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA60-73W100%0.0
1-30Samford (252.0)SCA56-63W100%0.0
2-1The Citadel (322.0)SCH125-85W100%0.0
2-4Wofford (199.0)SCH79-63W100%0.0
2-6Furman (167.0)SCH62-54W100%0.0
2-8Mercer (194.0)SCA66-72W100%0.0
2-11Western Carolina (166.0)SCA67-61L0%0.0
2-13East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA68-76W100%0.0
2-18VMI (316.0)SCH85-59W100%0.0
2-20UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH64-79L0%0.0
2-27Samford (252.0)SCH77-66W100%0.0
2-29VMI (316.0)SCA65-67W100%0.0
3-5Samford (252.0)SCN59-54W100%0.0
3-6Western Carolina (166.0)SCN73-69W100%0.0
3-7East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCN73-67W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.6026.6087.6687.6620.0420.04
East Tennessee St.SC5.765.7672.4172.412.582.58
SamfordSC5.745.7442.8642.86-0.82-0.82
Western CarolinaSC5.705.7044.4444.44-0.63-0.63
MercerSC4.304.3058.6258.620.740.74
FurmanSC4.274.2751.7251.720.150.15
WoffordSC4.194.1946.4346.43-0.30-0.30
VMISC4.184.1824.0024.00-2.17-2.17
The CitadelSC4.164.1625.9325.93-2.00-2.00
UNC GreensboroSC4.164.1637.0437.04-1.08-1.08
Kennesaw St.ASun1.741.7432.1432.14-0.62-0.62
Jacksonville St.OVC1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
Tennessee TechOVC1.711.7162.9662.960.440.44
IllinoisB101.671.6745.4545.45-0.15-0.15
LipscombASun1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Alabama St.SWAC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
DaytonA101.611.6180.6580.650.990.99
Iowa St.B121.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
GeorgiaSEC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Louisiana MonroeSB1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
RadfordBSth1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.270.2728.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Morehead St.OVC0.260.2658.6258.620.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.260.2664.5264.520.070.07
Austin PeayOVC0.240.2448.4848.48-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.210.2164.2964.290.060.06
BelmontOVC0.190.1963.3363.330.050.05
StetsonASun0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
CampbellBSth0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1664.2964.290.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Ohio St.B100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
DavidsonA100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
North FloridaASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Penn St.B100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.1357.6957.690.020.02
WinthropBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
ElonCAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
IdahoBSky0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
IndianaB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01