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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:248.9
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:13
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-999.00.02%
18-10109.80.21%
17-11131.70.47%
16-12150.81.59%
15-13171.63.60%
14-14191.97.47%
13-15212.611.49%
12-16232.115.37%
11-17251.017.82%
10-18268.715.09%
9-19285.412.54%
8-20299.48.04%
7-21310.94.08%
6-22321.01.50%
5-23330.20.49%
4-24335.30.18%
3-25339.00.02%
2-26342.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wyoming (121.3)MWCA74-65L0%0.0
11-13UAB (84.4)CUSAA89-47L0%0.0
11-20Alabama St. (334.9)SWACH0-089%14.4
11-28Akron (118.6)MACA0-016%-11.8
12-2Tennessee Martin (212.3)OVCH0-048%-0.6
12-5Marshall (170.2)CUSAA0-026%-7.8
12-10Charlotte (237.7)CUSAH0-049%-0.2
12-17Tennessee Tech (233.3)OVCA0-037%-4.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (131.8)OVCA0-016%-11.7
12-23Georgia St. (96.0)SBH0-028%-7.1
12-30Samford (209.6)SCA0-030%-6.2
1-4Western Carolina (294.1)SCH0-076%8.6
1-6East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCH0-039%-3.2
1-10Furman (153.0)SCH0-038%-3.6
1-13The Citadel (292.5)SCA0-053%1.0
1-15Mercer (85.2)SCA0-09%-16.0
1-20Wofford (238.5)SCA0-034%-4.8
1-24Samford (209.6)SCH0-049%-0.2
1-27VMI (319.7)SCH0-077%9.0
1-29UNC Greensboro (186.8)SCH0-042%-2.4
2-1Western Carolina (294.1)SCA0-059%2.6
2-3East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCA0-022%-9.2
2-8The Citadel (292.5)SCH0-072%7.0
2-10Mercer (85.2)SCH0-020%-10.0
2-15Furman (153.0)SCA0-021%-9.6
2-17Wofford (238.5)SCH0-054%1.2
2-23UNC Greensboro (186.8)SCA0-024%-8.4
2-25VMI (319.7)SCA0-060%3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC37.5026.470.0039.27-37.50-5.68
FurmanSC0.004.6350.0058.640.000.80
SamfordSC0.004.6333.3347.050.00-0.27
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.6033.3356.990.000.64
MercerSC0.004.5975.0075.550.002.35
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.590.0055.780.000.53
Western CarolinaSC0.004.590.0020.520.00-2.71
WoffordSC0.004.590.0038.510.00-1.06
VMISC0.004.5933.3327.130.00-2.10
The CitadelSC0.004.5833.3329.900.00-1.84
MarshallCUSA0.001.9866.6748.230.00-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.9750.0067.730.000.70
Tennessee TechOVC0.001.9450.0038.780.00-0.44
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.9125.0050.010.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.001.880.0045.460.00-0.17
UABCUSA25.001.88100.0077.9425.001.05
AkronMAC0.001.85100.0059.470.000.35
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.820.0026.720.00-0.85
Georgia St.SB0.001.7950.0064.880.000.53
WyomingMWC25.001.79100.0055.7825.000.21
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.250.0064.600.000.07
High PointBSth0.000.2333.3347.540.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.2250.0052.380.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2233.3336.610.00-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.190.0018.970.00-0.12
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.190.0022.610.00-0.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.190.0045.040.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0046.410.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.190.0029.880.00-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.000.1950.0066.530.000.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.160.0016.000.00-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.16100.0063.590.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1633.3360.630.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1650.0050.670.000.00
TroySB0.000.1633.3346.410.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1666.6768.320.000.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.160.0031.380.00-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1675.0072.950.000.07
BelmontOVC0.000.1675.0071.560.000.07
LongwoodBSth0.000.130.0017.060.00-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.13100.0054.680.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.130.0028.720.00-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.130.0034.600.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.130.0044.500.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.13100.0078.160.000.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.13100.0071.560.000.06
FIUCUSA0.000.130.0024.970.00-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0032.130.00-0.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1333.3336.410.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.13100.0054.960.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.1333.3350.840.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.13100.0064.470.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.13100.0048.350.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1350.0050.360.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0044.630.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3341.010.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1233.3329.980.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0036.490.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.12100.0070.960.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.100.0031.810.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.10100.0070.080.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.10100.0061.010.000.02
DaytonA100.000.1066.6762.150.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1033.3348.480.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.10100.0064.120.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0082.350.000.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1033.3347.670.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1066.6768.790.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1050.0042.160.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1050.0050.570.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1075.0058.930.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.100.0050.360.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1025.0035.000.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0036.640.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.090.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0933.3338.350.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6756.330.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.910.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3342.010.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0051.080.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.090.0055.380.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0025.140.00-0.05
XavierBE0.000.09100.0078.990.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0051.410.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.07100.0068.200.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.070.0023.830.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0766.6748.280.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0059.870.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0775.0061.940.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.070.0030.350.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0733.3345.540.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0766.6748.040.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0047.670.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0066.010.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.07100.0039.920.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0046.150.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0766.6766.590.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0066.490.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0666.6742.170.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0633.3339.360.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0650.0060.060.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3354.200.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0675.0051.210.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0078.910.000.04
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0650.0062.630.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0021.010.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.0633.3345.780.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6761.500.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
Oregon St.P126.250.0666.6742.262.08-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0044.130.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
JacksonvilleASun6.250.030.0029.62-6.25-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.03100.0044.740.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0350.0035.740.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0333.3349.220.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3338.880.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.030.0033.520.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01