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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:287.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:196
Current SOS:218
Current Record:4-14
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-7
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:241
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16218.50.08%
12-17231.40.84%
11-18248.04.99%
10-19262.512.78%
9-20277.324.71%
8-21291.827.55%
7-22305.319.30%
6-23317.07.81%
5-24326.61.78%
4-25332.70.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wyoming (101.5)MWCA74-65L0%0.0
11-13UAB (126.5)CUSAA89-47L0%0.0
11-20Alabama St. (341.1)SWACH67-50W100%0.0
11-21Jacksonville St. (151.8)OVCH75-77L0%0.0
11-28Akron (213.7)MACA75-70L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee Martin (301.2)OVCH66-63W100%0.0
12-5Marshall (101.3)CUSAA70-66L0%0.0
12-10Charlotte (301.3)CUSAH64-50W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee Tech (171.8)OVCA82-76L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (151.8)OVCA67-70W100%0.0
12-23Georgia St. (135.6)SBH48-71L0%0.0
12-30Samford (261.3)SCA73-56L0%0.0
1-4Western Carolina (223.5)SCH63-75L0%0.0
1-6East Tennessee St. (61.7)SCH66-85L0%0.0
1-10Furman (89.4)SCH55-73L0%0.0
1-13The Citadel (314.8)SCA110-101L0%0.0
1-15Mercer (169.7)SCA75-71L0%0.0
1-20Wofford (119.5)SCA71-67L0%0.0
1-24Samford (261.3)SCH0-057%1.9
1-27VMI (313.6)SCH0-077%8.3
1-29UNC Greensboro (116.2)SCH0-028%-6.4
2-1Western Carolina (223.5)SCA0-045%-1.4
2-3East Tennessee St. (61.7)SCA0-06%-17.3
2-8The Citadel (314.8)SCH0-078%8.6
2-10Mercer (169.7)SCH0-025%-7.6
2-15Furman (89.4)SCA0-09%-14.8
2-17Wofford (119.5)SCH0-035%-4.4
2-23UNC Greensboro (116.2)SCA0-013%-12.8
2-25VMI (313.6)SCA0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.5326.4820.5126.57-15.65-12.41
SamfordSC3.404.4823.5329.77-1.80-1.81
FurmanSC3.264.4664.7166.500.961.47
East Tennessee St.SC3.094.4376.4777.841.632.46
MercerSC3.094.4341.1852.46-0.540.22
Western CarolinaSC3.104.4335.2932.22-0.91-1.57
UNC GreensboroSC0.414.4268.7566.720.151.48
WoffordSC3.024.4266.6762.151.011.07
The CitadelSC3.104.4213.3315.00-2.27-3.09
VMISC0.484.4225.0023.47-0.24-2.34
Jacksonville St.OVC5.713.6372.2269.522.541.42
Tennessee TechOVC2.851.9355.5651.520.320.06
MarshallCUSA3.091.9066.6762.391.030.47
Tennessee MartinOVC2.931.8727.7832.64-1.30-0.65
UABCUSA2.851.8158.8262.840.500.47
CharlotteCUSA2.851.8125.0026.58-1.43-0.85
AkronMAC2.921.7843.7542.94-0.37-0.25
Alabama St.SWAC2.921.7817.6525.13-1.89-0.89
Georgia St.SB2.781.7264.7164.300.820.49
WyomingMWC2.781.7258.8255.340.490.18
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.570.2631.5832.72-0.21-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.570.2623.5328.70-0.30-0.11
UNC AshevilleBSth0.240.2450.0055.650.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.390.2410.5316.75-0.30-0.16
Austin PeayOVC0.290.2344.4445.98-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.290.2370.5975.930.120.12
Tennessee St.OVC0.360.2335.2940.48-0.11-0.04
High PointBSth0.330.2240.0047.86-0.07-0.01
BelmontOVC0.290.2071.4374.650.120.10
LibertyBSth0.230.1852.9457.320.010.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.1868.4270.810.090.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.180.0010.65-0.31-0.14
PresbyterianBSth0.080.1629.4127.74-0.03-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1578.9576.760.090.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.1516.6724.91-0.15-0.07
MemphisAmer0.230.1565.0058.490.070.03
TroySB0.230.1535.2942.76-0.07-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.230.1552.6355.290.010.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1572.2274.700.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.300.1572.2274.900.130.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.1529.4133.94-0.03-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.1536.8432.79-0.02-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1542.1143.500.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.290.1527.7834.50-0.13-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1317.6517.230.00-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1368.4257.770.000.02
DavidsonA100.160.1258.8261.440.030.03
ElonCAA0.080.1252.6351.090.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.160.1280.0075.050.100.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.1222.2227.33-0.04-0.05
FIUCUSA0.160.1235.2935.57-0.05-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.1237.5037.68-0.04-0.03
RiceCUSA0.160.1211.1117.69-0.12-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1241.1838.46-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.240.1233.3337.22-0.08-0.03
ClemsonACC0.150.1284.2173.210.110.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1266.6765.360.050.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1266.6773.240.050.06
TennesseeSEC0.150.1272.2268.920.070.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.1260.0062.030.020.03
CincinnatiAmer0.230.1289.4785.520.180.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1238.8943.43-0.03-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.290.1272.2258.940.130.02
SouthernSWAC0.220.1227.7840.97-0.10-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.170.0925.0028.25-0.08-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0944.4441.15-0.01-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.0927.7838.13-0.07-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.160.0961.1151.900.040.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.0966.6765.620.050.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0944.4446.64-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0933.3334.110.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0941.1839.650.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0927.7831.12-0.07-0.03
DaytonA100.230.0947.3750.95-0.010.00
Fort WayneSum0.160.0952.6351.700.010.00
LSUSEC0.150.0961.1153.160.030.01
MassachusettsA100.150.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0947.0648.44-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.150.0966.6767.690.050.03
WinthropBSth0.150.0946.6758.78-0.010.02
XavierBE0.150.0985.7180.080.110.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.0930.0036.48-0.06-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.0926.6729.04-0.06-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.150.0945.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0921.0539.47-0.04-0.02
RichmondA100.220.0931.5834.35-0.08-0.03
Oregon St.P120.220.0957.8950.810.030.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0921.0544.26-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0626.3228.140.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.090.0643.7545.34-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0028.720.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0670.0058.100.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0673.6869.610.040.03
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.0521.99-0.05-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0655.5656.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0680.9576.520.050.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0661.1160.790.000.01
UMBCAE0.090.0658.8258.360.020.01
VCUA100.000.0660.0059.690.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0668.4257.780.030.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0647.3743.040.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0652.6343.120.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0637.5046.63-0.02-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Texas TechB120.090.0678.9571.810.050.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0694.4485.440.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0668.4258.990.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0668.4264.200.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.750.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.080.0666.6763.070.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0662.5058.700.020.01
ColoradoP120.080.0660.0053.730.020.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.060.009.15-0.08-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0689.4785.190.060.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0610.0019.62-0.06-0.04
FordhamA100.080.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.860.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0673.6867.950.040.02
La SalleA100.080.0640.0042.72-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.080.0622.2225.26-0.04-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0677.7871.650.040.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0647.0641.450.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0663.6457.640.020.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0629.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0663.1663.180.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0650.0045.900.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0627.7831.67-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0652.9455.040.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
UCFAmer0.080.0668.4260.880.030.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0650.0051.360.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.0638.8946.03-0.03-0.00
IllinoisB100.150.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.150.0647.6244.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0683.3381.350.050.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.0643.7554.09-0.020.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.470.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.970.040.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0645.0041.34-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0666.6763.420.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.12-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.140.0610.5327.31-0.11-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0685.7182.070.060.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0658.8262.830.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0611.7612.810.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.0672.2272.970.070.03
USC UpstateASun0.140.0611.1117.96-0.11-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0389.4777.030.060.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0320.0023.36-0.05-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0346.6746.98-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0333.3333.80-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.070.0352.9459.360.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.92-0.05-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0370.5973.140.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0341.1839.13-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.590.030.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.900.020.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.02
USCP120.080.0371.4368.300.040.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0352.9452.230.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0337.5031.760.00-0.01
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.47-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0358.8257.140.010.00
OregonP120.080.0365.0063.830.020.01
PacificWCC0.080.0345.0044.46-0.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0373.6865.280.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7159.980.020.01