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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:41.8
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:176
Current Record:20-3
Expected Record:24-4
Current Conf Record:11-1
Expected Conf Record:15-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-334.542.57%
24-443.942.77%
23-555.313.08%
22-667.91.49%
21-783.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Georgia (85.4)SECA90-92W100%0.0
11-21Illinois (157.5)B10A77-81W100%0.0
11-23Iowa St. (20.1)B12A83-63L0%0.0
11-27Alabama St. (304.0)SWACN95-58W100%0.0
11-28Jacksonville St. (305.4)OVCN52-62W100%0.0
11-30Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBA64-54L0%0.0
12-12Dayton (13.0)A10A59-61W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Tech (108.4)OVCH80-69W100%0.0
12-18Kennesaw St. (292.4)ASunH78-66W100%0.0
12-22Radford (170.2)BSthH77-75W100%0.0
12-29Lipscomb (271.7)ASunA56-80W100%0.0
1-2The Citadel (306.8)SCA78-84W100%0.0
1-5Mercer (132.1)SCH74-62W100%0.0
1-9Furman (157.5)SCA70-55L0%0.0
1-11Wofford (187.5)SCA68-77W100%0.0
1-14Western Carolina (239.8)SCH77-58W100%0.0
1-16East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCH94-84W100%0.0
1-21UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCA60-73W100%0.0
1-30Samford (248.8)SCA56-63W100%0.0
2-1The Citadel (306.8)SCH125-85W100%0.0
2-4Wofford (187.5)SCH79-63W100%0.0
2-6Furman (157.5)SCH62-54W100%0.0
2-8Mercer (132.1)SCA66-72W100%0.0
2-11Western Carolina (239.8)SCA0-079%8.9
2-13East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCA0-065%4.2
2-18VMI (335.3)SCH0-099%23.7
2-20UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCH0-093%15.9
2-27Samford (248.8)SCH0-090%14.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.4826.3791.7490.8522.1021.55
MercerSC5.074.5876.1974.152.662.21
SamfordSC3.174.5843.4845.41-0.41-0.42
East Tennessee St.SC2.804.5561.9062.480.671.14
FurmanSC4.974.5554.5554.380.450.40
Western CarolinaSC2.794.5430.0032.91-1.12-1.55
WoffordSC4.874.5247.6249.65-0.23-0.03
The CitadelSC4.964.5135.0032.36-1.49-1.59
UNC GreensboroSC2.894.5128.5733.17-1.24-1.52
VMISC0.862.7815.0017.36-0.60-1.82
Kennesaw St.ASun2.361.9722.7324.27-1.29-1.01
Jacksonville St.OVC2.321.9525.0025.04-1.16-0.97
Tennessee TechOVC2.311.9468.1866.850.840.65
LipscombASun2.271.8826.0930.33-1.08-0.74
IllinoisB102.271.8847.8345.58-0.10-0.17
Alabama St.SWAC2.311.8830.0034.59-0.92-0.58
DaytonA102.261.8590.9184.981.851.29
Iowa St.B122.221.8169.5766.930.870.61
GeorgiaSEC2.171.7961.9057.190.520.26
Louisiana MonroeSB2.171.7940.0044.43-0.43-0.20
RadfordBSth2.171.7952.3853.180.100.11
PresbyterianBSth0.330.2525.0026.87-0.17-0.12
Morehead St.OVC0.190.2550.0052.380.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.240.2565.2266.190.070.08
High PointBSth0.200.2255.0057.460.020.03
BelmontOVC0.270.2268.0066.660.100.07
JacksonvilleASun0.190.2250.0049.850.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.280.2240.0042.85-0.06-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.1968.1865.160.080.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1952.0050.230.010.00
StetsonASun0.190.1923.8127.73-0.10-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.280.1922.7323.25-0.15-0.10
Appalachian St.SB0.290.1826.0929.18-0.14-0.08
North FloridaASun0.190.1865.2267.120.060.06
CampbellBSth0.150.1628.5729.64-0.06-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1645.4547.54-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.140.1664.0064.480.040.05
Virginia TechACC0.190.1652.0048.860.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.1660.0060.100.050.03
WinthropBSth0.190.1665.0063.440.060.04
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1686.9680.370.110.09
ArkansasSEC0.240.1650.0053.000.000.01
DavidsonA100.190.1661.9058.060.050.03
Ohio St.B100.190.1560.0055.540.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.190.1554.1751.980.020.01
MissouriSEC0.240.1533.3330.27-0.08-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1363.6460.930.040.03
ElonCAA0.150.1352.1750.420.010.00
Penn St.B100.100.1350.0046.760.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1340.0040.34-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1334.7840.89-0.06-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1347.6252.03-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1340.0038.97-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.140.1334.7836.51-0.04-0.03
NJITASun0.190.1354.1755.260.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1383.3378.400.100.07
AlabamaSEC0.140.1260.8755.970.030.01
AuburnSEC0.140.1239.1335.44-0.03-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.100.1233.3334.19-0.03-0.04
TroySB0.100.1223.8126.72-0.05-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1258.3359.960.020.02
IowaB100.190.1282.6180.520.120.07
Chicago St.WAC0.190.124.357.72-0.17-0.10
West VirginiaB120.140.1279.1778.060.080.07
TexasB120.090.1266.6762.210.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.1070.8368.990.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.150.1043.4837.81-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1050.0054.190.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1020.0022.26-0.09-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.109.0917.14-0.08-0.06
Murray St.OVC0.140.0945.4549.69-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0936.8442.89-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0934.7833.05-0.04-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0913.6415.80-0.10-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0923.8126.56-0.05-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0925.0025.09-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.0979.1776.070.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0976.1973.410.050.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.0924.0025.67-0.08-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0972.0071.540.040.04
ClemsonACC0.140.0958.3358.370.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.140.0982.6179.390.090.05
George MasonA100.140.0933.3333.70-0.05-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.0952.0050.780.000.00
IndianaB100.090.0979.1774.060.050.04
BaylorB120.090.0973.9168.480.050.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0958.3356.290.020.01
MinnesotaB100.100.0925.0027.23-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0639.1341.03-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0628.0030.70-0.04-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.66-0.06-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0647.8350.01-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0631.8236.14-0.04-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.070.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.11-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.590.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0622.7324.97-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.11-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.310.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.16-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.680.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0641.6739.91-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.100.0662.5059.050.020.01
VCUA100.050.0673.9174.060.020.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.910.040.05
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.23-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0666.6765.220.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0673.9172.580.040.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0666.6766.330.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.090.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.010.000.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0635.0038.52-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0654.5554.970.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.760.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0629.1733.74-0.04-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.920.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.48-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.20-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.310.050.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0636.8437.57-0.01-0.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0636.0034.92-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.310.020.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.870.040.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.8232.69-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0675.0075.330.050.03
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.360.020.01
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.33-0.06-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0658.3357.220.000.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0634.7832.42-0.01-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0672.7370.400.020.02
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.190.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0663.6462.150.020.01
OklahomaB120.090.0686.9682.580.070.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.32-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.35-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0660.8755.300.020.01
WisconsinB100.050.0662.5056.960.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.590.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.670.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.190.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.840.010.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.93-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.76-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.110.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.35-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.780.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.18-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.310.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.630.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0339.1338.56-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.650.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0343.4843.76-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.63-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5727.00-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.58-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.990.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.680.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.21-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.100.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.750.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0375.0071.920.020.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
RichmondA100.000.0356.5255.730.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0383.3381.320.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.860.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.310.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.03-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.22-0.04-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.420.010.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.090.000.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.820.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0372.0069.150.020.01
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.960.030.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01