live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:139.0
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:200
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12139.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee (82.0)SECA69-82W100%0.0
11-13North Carolina (5.0)ACCA97-57L0%0.0
11-19Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndN64-75W100%0.0
11-20Arkansas St. (119.0)SBN67-73L0%0.0
11-26Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA71-88W100%0.0
11-29Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA52-68W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH79-52W100%0.0
12-6Marshall (112.0)CUSAH96-85W100%0.0
12-17Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA76-74L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH73-57W100%0.0
12-31Western Carolina (271.0)SCA48-64W100%0.0
1-2UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA73-68L0%0.0
1-5Wofford (190.0)SCH77-66W100%0.0
1-7Furman (96.0)SCH80-64W100%0.0
1-11The Citadel (282.0)SCH83-73W100%0.0
1-14Mercer (192.0)SCA68-70W100%0.0
1-21Samford (170.0)SCH82-78W100%0.0
1-25VMI (329.0)SCH64-80L0%0.0
1-28East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA76-71L0%0.0
2-2UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH91-68W100%0.0
2-4Western Carolina (271.0)SCH77-65W100%0.0
2-9Furman (96.0)SCA60-56L0%0.0
2-11Wofford (190.0)SCA65-73W100%0.0
2-15VMI (329.0)SCA68-74W100%0.0
2-18East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH51-65L0%0.0
2-22Samford (170.0)SCA72-68L0%0.0
2-25Mercer (192.0)SCH54-64L0%0.0
2-27The Citadel (282.0)SCA85-76L0%0.0
3-4Wofford (190.0)SCN67-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.4426.4460.9060.905.765.76
WoffordSC6.176.1744.4444.44-0.69-0.69
SamfordSC4.624.6253.3353.330.310.31
East Tennessee St.SC4.624.6276.6776.672.462.46
UNC GreensboroSC4.624.6272.4172.412.072.07
The CitadelSC4.534.5328.5728.57-1.94-1.94
Western CarolinaSC4.504.5025.0025.00-2.25-2.25
MercerSC4.504.5042.8642.86-0.64-0.64
FurmanSC4.474.4764.2964.291.281.28
VMISC4.464.4611.5411.54-3.43-3.43
Coastal CarolinaSB1.891.8946.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Arkansas St.SB1.891.8960.0060.000.380.38
Louisiana MonroeSB1.861.8623.3323.33-0.99-0.99
TennesseeSEC1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC1.811.8158.0658.060.290.29
Kennesaw St.ASun1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
MarshallCUSA1.781.7857.5857.580.270.27
VanderbiltSEC1.781.7854.5554.550.160.16
Central ArkansasSlnd1.751.7525.8125.81-0.85-0.85
North CarolinaACC1.751.7578.1278.120.990.99
PresbyterianBSth0.260.2610.7110.71-0.20-0.20
Appalachian St.SB0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Little RockSB0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.2070.0070.000.080.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Miami FLACC0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
FloridaSEC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
TCUB120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
DaytonA100.140.1476.6776.670.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
AuburnSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
High PointBSth0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
VermontAE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01