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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:104.3
Current RPI:106
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:212
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-342.20.22%
24-447.81.27%
23-557.94.44%
22-668.910.19%
21-781.916.19%
20-895.919.59%
19-9110.919.42%
18-10126.714.80%
17-11144.58.03%
16-12162.23.80%
15-13182.11.41%
14-14202.30.49%
13-15218.70.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee (165.2)SECA69-82W100%0.0
11-13North Carolina (5.9)ACCA97-57L0%0.0
11-19Central Arkansas (282.4)SlndN64-75W100%0.0
11-20Arkansas St. (68.6)SBN67-73L0%0.0
11-26Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunA71-88W100%0.0
11-29Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBA52-68W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana Monroe (242.9)SBH0-086%13.2
12-6Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-067%5.2
12-17Vanderbilt (72.4)SECA0-027%-7.5
12-21Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH0-082%10.8
12-31Western Carolina (291.4)SCA0-089%14.6
1-2UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCA0-053%1.0
1-5Wofford (257.2)SCH0-084%11.9
1-7Furman (185.5)SCH0-076%8.6
1-11The Citadel (312.2)SCH0-095%20.2
1-14Mercer (163.6)SCA0-056%1.7
1-21Samford (178.5)SCH0-076%8.4
1-25VMI (316.6)SCH0-094%18.4
1-28East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCA0-026%-7.6
2-2UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCH0-073%7.2
2-4Western Carolina (291.4)SCH0-096%20.8
2-9Furman (185.5)SCA0-058%2.4
2-11Wofford (257.2)SCA0-068%5.7
2-15VMI (316.6)SCA0-085%12.2
2-18East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCH0-045%-1.4
2-22Samford (178.5)SCA0-057%2.2
2-25Mercer (163.6)SCH0-074%7.8
2-27The Citadel (312.2)SCA0-088%14.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC29.0226.4376.4772.1415.3611.70
MercerSC0.004.6150.0054.380.000.40
SamfordSC0.004.6157.1457.460.000.69
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.6183.3381.920.002.94
Western CarolinaSC0.004.6116.6719.79-0.00-2.78
WoffordSC0.004.610.0034.33-0.00-1.44
FurmanSC0.004.5820.0050.60-0.000.05
The CitadelSC0.004.5740.0028.48-0.00-1.97
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.5766.6760.070.000.92
VMISC0.004.570.0021.97-0.00-2.56
Coastal CarolinaSB8.331.9433.3340.85-2.78-0.36
Arkansas St.SB8.331.9483.3367.305.560.67
TennesseeSEC8.331.9333.3335.66-2.78-0.55
Louisiana MonroeSB0.001.9120.0033.29-0.00-0.64
Jacksonville St.OVC0.001.8857.1448.360.00-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun8.331.8533.3331.41-2.78-0.69
MarshallCUSA0.001.8583.3360.510.000.39
VanderbiltSEC0.001.8557.1448.050.00-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd8.331.8216.6730.13-5.56-0.72
North CarolinaACC8.331.8283.3379.345.561.07
PresbyterianBSth0.000.2933.3327.13-0.00-0.13
Appalachian St.SB1.040.2420.0036.00-0.62-0.07
Little RockSB0.600.2460.0057.900.120.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2250.0064.840.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.2150.0045.410.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1925.0033.54-0.00-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.000.1883.3361.150.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1820.0041.93-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1685.7162.920.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1633.3338.20-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1666.6772.440.000.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1633.3336.31-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.600.1662.5056.500.150.02
High PointBSth0.000.1550.0051.260.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.1571.4365.740.000.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.1560.0067.410.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1514.2928.66-0.00-0.07
Texas St.SB0.000.1550.0043.310.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1557.1464.940.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1566.6761.340.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1583.3355.200.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1571.4343.020.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1587.5075.320.000.08
KentuckySEC0.000.15100.0086.250.000.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.1383.3380.550.000.08
StetsonASun0.000.1328.5728.26-0.00-0.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1340.0050.71-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.1328.5743.62-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.12100.0059.480.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.600.1271.4352.370.260.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1266.6739.720.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.1271.4349.770.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1283.3370.360.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1271.4366.530.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1266.6775.370.000.06
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0082.550.000.08
TroySB0.000.1233.3332.23-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.1257.1461.940.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1266.6754.380.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1242.8637.25-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.600.1266.6756.020.200.01
UMBCAE0.600.1080.0055.340.360.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0024.32-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0940.0041.65-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0971.4359.850.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.600.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0914.2933.07-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.600.0950.0061.810.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.600.0916.6731.91-0.40-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.600.090.0023.46-0.60-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.0957.1436.050.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0971.4368.970.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0985.7180.960.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.090.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0940.0061.37-0.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0966.6753.460.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0983.3368.880.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0985.7162.410.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0034.01-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0056.71-0.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0985.7173.010.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0971.4346.010.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0080.780.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0985.7155.550.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6766.100.000.03
WisconsinB102.230.0975.0073.841.120.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0038.72-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0757.1448.600.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.600.0614.2934.56-0.43-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.600.060.0018.22-0.60-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.0657.1440.590.09-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.600.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
ArmyPat1.190.0633.3345.58-0.40-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Oklahoma St.B121.190.0683.3356.560.790.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
IowaB100.600.0342.8644.33-0.09-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.600.0366.6732.240.20-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.600.0371.4368.660.260.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0316.6730.02-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.600.030.0023.26-0.60-0.02
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.600.0316.6730.27-0.40-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
LehighPat0.600.0333.3367.01-0.200.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
OregonP121.040.0371.4366.730.450.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
HawaiiBW0.600.0350.0050.940.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.600.0383.3375.060.400.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.600.030.0039.35-0.60-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
TulaneAmer0.600.0314.2926.81-0.43-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.600.0316.6736.45-0.40-0.01