live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:243.0
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:329
Current SOS:329
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:279



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14243.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Radford (240.0)BSthA89-78L0%0.0
11-19Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH69-73L0%0.0
11-22Nevada (137.0)MWCA83-81L0%0.0
11-24UCLA (14.0)P12A106-65L0%0.0
11-28Morehead St. (141.0)OVCN75-88L0%0.0
11-29IUPUI (322.0)SumN76-87W100%0.0
12-2Georgia (74.0)SECA87-56L0%0.0
12-15Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA87-71L0%0.0
12-18UAB (152.0)CUSAA67-52L0%0.0
12-29Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH69-64W100%0.0
12-30Maine (330.0)AEH86-80W100%0.0
1-4Furman (339.0)SCA63-72W100%0.0
1-6The Citadel (345.0)SCA78-82W100%0.0
1-9Samford (313.0)SCH90-81W100%0.0
1-11Wofford (153.0)SCH70-69W100%0.0
1-16Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA70-80W100%0.0
1-18Wofford (153.0)SCA57-71W100%0.0
1-23Elon (162.0)SCH84-63W100%0.0
1-25UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH77-67W100%0.0
1-30Davidson (126.0)SCA94-51L0%0.0
2-1Furman (339.0)SCH67-52W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA74-63L0%0.0
2-8Samford (313.0)SCA92-85L0%0.0
2-14Western Carolina (221.0)SCH83-73W100%0.0
2-20Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH61-77L0%0.0
2-23UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA88-84L0%0.0
2-27Western Carolina (221.0)SCA81-83W100%0.0
3-1Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH63-44W100%0.0
3-8Georgia Southern (303.0)SCN55-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.2726.2755.3755.372.822.82
Georgia SouthernSC4.354.3534.4834.48-1.35-1.35
WoffordSC4.304.3062.9662.961.111.11
Western CarolinaSC4.284.2855.1755.170.440.44
SamfordSC4.264.2632.1432.14-1.52-1.52
Appalachian St.SC4.204.2020.8320.83-2.45-2.45
FurmanSC4.184.1828.0028.00-1.84-1.84
UNC GreensboroSC4.164.1637.0437.04-1.08-1.08
The CitadelSC2.682.6814.2914.29-1.91-1.91
DavidsonSC2.642.6460.0060.000.530.53
ElonSC2.582.5857.1457.140.370.37
GeorgiaSEC1.931.9358.0658.060.310.31
Kennesaw St.ASun1.871.8710.7110.71-1.47-1.47
Morehead St.OVC1.861.8656.6756.670.250.25
Northern KentuckyASun1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.811.8170.0070.000.720.72
UABCUSA1.781.7853.5753.570.130.13
UCLAP121.781.7875.7675.760.920.92
NevadaMWC1.781.7845.1645.16-0.17-0.17
RadfordBSth1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
Grand CanyonWAC1.721.7248.0048.00-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum1.721.7210.7110.71-1.35-1.35
MaineAE1.721.7218.5218.52-1.09-1.09
PresbyterianBSth0.390.3913.3313.33-0.29-0.29
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.270.2762.5062.500.070.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.240.2432.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
StetsonASun0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
East Tennessee St.ASun0.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
LibertyBSth0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
BelmontOVC0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
WinthropBSth0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
IPFWSum0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
LipscombASun0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
CaliforniaP120.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
OregonP120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
North FloridaASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
ColoradoP120.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01