live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:215.6
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:191
Current Record:4-6
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8104.00.03%
20-9105.10.19%
19-10122.91.24%
18-11141.93.65%
17-12160.78.91%
16-13180.613.96%
15-14201.418.77%
14-15223.119.29%
13-16243.816.09%
12-17263.09.61%
11-18281.35.28%
10-19295.32.17%
9-20307.90.68%
8-21313.80.11%
7-22326.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Wisconsin (5.6)B10A89-45L0%0.0
11-18Butler (35.3)BEA70-48L0%0.0
11-22Tennessee Tech (200.5)OVCA69-67L0%0.0
11-26Robert Morris (269.6)NECH61-46W100%0.0
11-27Coastal Carolina (130.5)BSthH78-67W100%0.0
11-29Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunA77-69L0%0.0
12-2Georgia (40.2)SECH55-86L0%0.0
12-11The Citadel (314.8)SCA48-67W100%0.0
12-16Northern Kentucky (213.9)ASunH93-81W100%0.0
12-19Middle Tennessee (197.5)CUSAA68-58L0%0.0
12-22UAB (246.6)CUSAH0-067%5.0
12-29Lipscomb (255.5)ASunH0-072%6.8
1-3Furman (274.2)SCH0-075%7.8
1-5Wofford (62.6)SCH0-032%-5.5
1-8Western Carolina (233.7)SCH0-064%4.1
1-10East Tennessee St. (129.5)SCA0-023%-8.7
1-15Samford (320.3)SCA0-058%2.2
1-22VMI (268.3)SCH0-072%6.7
1-24UNC Greensboro (286.8)SCH0-073%7.3
1-29Mercer (244.5)SCA0-038%-3.4
1-31The Citadel (314.8)SCH0-077%8.5
2-5Furman (274.2)SCA0-047%-0.8
2-7Western Carolina (233.7)SCA0-035%-4.5
2-12Wofford (62.6)SCA0-011%-14.1
2-14Samford (320.3)SCH0-082%10.8
2-19Mercer (244.5)SCH0-067%5.1
2-21East Tennessee St. (129.5)SCH0-050%-0.1
2-26VMI (268.3)SCA0-044%-1.9
2-28UNC Greensboro (286.8)SCA0-046%-1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC27.6426.4442.1148.41-4.36-0.84
MercerSC0.214.5044.4442.86-0.02-0.64
VMISC0.364.5033.3338.46-0.12-1.04
The CitadelSC5.004.4916.6733.18-3.33-1.51
SamfordSC0.214.4738.4634.59-0.05-1.38
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4671.4363.310.001.19
Western CarolinaSC0.004.4427.2743.46-0.00-0.58
WoffordSC0.004.4477.7875.290.002.25
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.4420.0034.39-0.00-1.38
FurmanSC0.004.4322.2231.36-0.00-1.65
Kennesaw St.ASun5.232.0027.2726.15-2.38-0.95
LipscombASun0.281.8830.0039.99-0.11-0.38
Northern KentuckyASun5.231.8837.5044.92-1.31-0.19
Tennessee TechOVC5.001.8237.5047.19-1.25-0.10
UABCUSA0.231.8130.0035.84-0.09-0.51
WisconsinB105.281.7890.0088.394.221.37
GeorgiaSEC5.001.7862.5062.051.250.43
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.001.7850.0047.150.00-0.10
ButlerBE5.211.7570.0067.532.080.61
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.001.7271.4374.412.140.84
Robert MorrisNEC5.001.7233.3340.26-1.67-0.34
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.2577.7869.870.000.10
North FloridaASun0.280.2550.0057.910.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2510.0018.51-0.00-0.16
PresbyterianBSth0.000.240.008.70-0.00-0.20
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.2212.5039.50-0.00-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.510.2155.5646.470.06-0.01
MinnesotaB100.280.2180.0068.200.170.08
StetsonASun0.000.1910.0026.86-0.00-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.000.1963.6467.200.000.07
Morehead St.OVC0.280.1916.6737.43-0.19-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1942.8649.17-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.230.1863.6464.930.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1772.7367.570.000.06
West VirginiaB120.280.1690.9170.260.230.06
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1520.0029.06-0.00-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.150.0014.49-0.23-0.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.460.1545.4543.17-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.230.15100.0086.740.230.11
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1566.6758.480.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.560.1528.5738.37-0.24-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.480.1572.7374.520.220.07
FIUCUSA0.210.1440.0047.08-0.04-0.01
Seton HallBE0.280.1481.8263.950.180.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.280.1442.8648.12-0.04-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.700.1470.0059.760.280.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.360.1345.4545.06-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1325.0035.29-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.360.1320.0022.49-0.21-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.360.1360.0038.340.07-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.1366.6761.820.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1320.0025.91-0.00-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1318.1830.67-0.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1350.0068.830.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1357.1455.280.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.1225.0043.91-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.310.1250.0039.580.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.280.1270.0052.050.110.00
IndianaB100.230.1281.8263.040.140.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1216.6726.53-0.00-0.05
NorthwesternB100.230.1263.6442.700.06-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1137.5027.75-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1025.0044.51-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6766.950.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0991.6772.610.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0944.4451.04-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.310.0970.0052.340.120.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0966.6764.890.090.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0920.0040.46-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0944.4437.49-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0970.0061.360.000.02
NebraskaB100.280.0966.6744.010.09-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0966.6759.240.000.02
CreightonBE0.230.0869.2349.070.09-0.00
MarquetteBE0.230.0860.0049.390.05-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.360.0750.0055.800.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.360.0754.5541.660.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.620.0727.2735.54-0.28-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3338.71-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0680.0067.350.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.780.000.02
IdahoBSky0.280.0637.5053.02-0.070.00
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0915.53-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.160.000.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0068.320.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0687.5067.460.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8272.960.000.03
VCUA100.000.0672.7376.010.000.03
ColoradoP120.280.0666.6757.910.090.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0032.37-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.310.0666.6754.590.100.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.160.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.510.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.560.0620.0045.83-0.33-0.01
ToledoMAC0.250.0663.6461.500.070.01
Murray St.OVC0.230.0660.0064.830.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.31-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0640.0051.94-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.190.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0048.150.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0037.46-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0666.6771.560.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.180.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0061.160.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.26-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.450.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.940.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0633.3343.01-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.210.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.62-0.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1457.190.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.740.000.01
CaliforniaP120.210.0690.9168.430.170.02
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0637.5050.46-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0618.1822.91-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.60-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.030.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0637.5039.38-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0663.6464.970.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.240.000.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.93-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0063.750.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.55-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.88-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0041.130.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0690.0082.040.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0670.0052.280.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0655.5660.570.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6765.440.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0630.0042.78-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0655.5665.160.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0663.6472.270.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.62-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.63-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.800.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.250.0677.7871.240.140.02
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.330.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
OklahomaB120.450.0670.0062.800.180.01
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.080.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.450.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.680.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.310.030.0016.07-0.31-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3341.93-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0360.0062.090.000.01
TexasB120.000.0390.9180.170.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.0360.0076.800.060.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.030.0023.75-0.28-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0340.0042.88-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0312.5026.95-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0340.0046.04-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.280.0388.8956.070.220.00
USCP120.280.0363.6440.160.08-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.030.0026.25-0.21-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.210.0377.7858.610.120.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.0350.0054.280.000.00
SyracuseACC0.210.0360.0057.780.040.00
UMBCAE0.210.0318.1825.24-0.13-0.01
AkronMAC0.230.0360.0056.450.050.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.430.000.01
BradleyMVC0.250.0330.0032.35-0.10-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.230.0370.0064.920.090.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.870.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.008.46-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.250.0337.5033.78-0.06-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.280.0380.0053.820.170.00
GonzagaWCC0.280.0390.9190.730.230.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0316.6743.50-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.220.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.250.0366.6768.370.080.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.550.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.230.0333.3346.57-0.08-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.230.0380.0058.040.140.00
South AlabamaSB0.230.030.0032.85-0.23-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.10-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.230.030.0034.55-0.23-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.280.0340.0055.83-0.060.00
TroySB0.280.0342.8640.42-0.04-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.230.0377.7872.900.130.01
Green BayHorz0.230.0377.7878.340.130.02
Indiana St.MVC0.230.0330.0029.93-0.09-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.230.0330.0028.28-0.09-0.01
MaineAE0.230.0310.0022.40-0.18-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0350.0040.340.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.0330.0030.65-0.09-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.030.0018.31-0.23-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0381.8282.150.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.610.00-0.01