Chattanooga

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	304.0
Current RPI:	304
Expected SOS:	212
Current SOS:	212
Current Record:	8-23
Expected Record:	8-23
Current Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-7
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	249
Expected OOC SOS:	201

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-23	304.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	74-65	L	0%
11-13	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	89-47	L	0%
11-20	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	67-50	W	100%
11-21	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	75-77	L	0%
11-28	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	75-70	L	0%
12-2	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	66-63	W	100%
12-5	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	70-66	L	0%
12-10	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	64-50	W	100%
12-17	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	82-76	L	0%
12-21	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	67-70	W	100%
12-23	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	48-71	L	0%
12-30	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	73-56	L	0%
1-4	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	63-75	L	0%
1-6	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	66-85	L	0%
1-10	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	55-73	L	0%
1-13	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	110-101	L	0%
1-15	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	75-71	L	0%
1-20	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	71-67	L	0%
1-24	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	78-71	W	100%
1-27	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	69-70	L	0%
1-29	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	87-85	W	100%
2-1	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	70-68	L	0%
2-3	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	81-61	L	0%
2-8	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	85-82	W	100%
2-10	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	75-84	L	0%
2-15	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	75-56	L	0%
2-17	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	64-74	L	0%
2-23	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	72-51	L	0%
2-25	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	68-65	L	0%
3-2	Samford (296.0)	SC	N	79-89	W	100%
3-3	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	N	77-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Chattanooga	SC	26.56	26.56	22.56	22.56	-14.58	-14.58
East Tennessee St.	SC	5.86	5.86	68.97	68.97	2.22	2.22
Samford	SC	5.80	5.80	25.93	25.93	-2.79	-2.79
UNC Greensboro	SC	4.38	4.38	79.31	79.31	2.57	2.57
Furman	SC	4.35	4.35	65.52	65.52	1.35	1.35
The Citadel	SC	4.29	4.29	25.93	25.93	-2.07	-2.07
Wofford	SC	4.29	4.29	57.14	57.14	0.61	0.61
Mercer	SC	4.24	4.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	4.24	4.24	32.14	32.14	-1.51	-1.51
VMI	SC	4.24	4.24	19.23	19.23	-2.61	-2.61
Jacksonville St.	OVC	3.44	3.44	63.33	63.33	0.92	0.92
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Marshall	CUSA	1.78	1.78	68.75	68.75	0.67	0.67
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.74	1.74	28.57	28.57	-0.75	-0.75
UAB	CUSA	1.69	1.69	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Charlotte	CUSA	1.69	1.69	18.52	18.52	-1.06	-1.06
Akron	MAC	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
Georgia St.	SB	1.61	1.61	67.74	67.74	0.57	0.57
Wyoming	MWC	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Murray St.	OVC	0.26	0.26	82.76	82.76	0.17	0.17
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.24	0.24	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Morehead St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	22.22	22.22	-0.13	-0.13
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.21	0.21	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Austin Peay	OVC	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.21	0.21	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.19	0.19	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	12.50	12.50	-0.14	-0.14
Belmont	OVC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Troy	SB	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Memphis	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Presbyterian	BSth	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00