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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Chattanooga

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:304.0
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:212
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23304.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wyoming (98.0)MWCA74-65L0%0.0
11-13UAB (155.0)CUSAA89-47L0%0.0
11-20Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH67-50W100%0.0
11-21Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH75-77L0%0.0
11-28Akron (227.0)MACA75-70L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH66-63W100%0.0
12-5Marshall (87.0)CUSAA70-66L0%0.0
12-10Charlotte (323.0)CUSAH64-50W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCA82-76L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA67-70W100%0.0
12-23Georgia St. (120.0)SBH48-71L0%0.0
12-30Samford (296.0)SCA73-56L0%0.0
1-4Western Carolina (215.0)SCH63-75L0%0.0
1-6East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH66-85L0%0.0
1-10Furman (97.0)SCH55-73L0%0.0
1-13The Citadel (281.0)SCA110-101L0%0.0
1-15Mercer (174.0)SCA75-71L0%0.0
1-20Wofford (129.0)SCA71-67L0%0.0
1-24Samford (296.0)SCH78-71W100%0.0
1-27VMI (313.0)SCH69-70L0%0.0
1-29UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCH87-85W100%0.0
2-1Western Carolina (215.0)SCA70-68L0%0.0
2-3East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCA81-61L0%0.0
2-8The Citadel (281.0)SCH85-82W100%0.0
2-10Mercer (174.0)SCH75-84L0%0.0
2-15Furman (97.0)SCA75-56L0%0.0
2-17Wofford (129.0)SCH64-74L0%0.0
2-23UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCA72-51L0%0.0
2-25VMI (313.0)SCA68-65L0%0.0
3-2Samford (296.0)SCN79-89W100%0.0
3-3East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCN77-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ChattanoogaSC26.5626.5622.5622.56-14.58-14.58
East Tennessee St.SC5.865.8668.9768.972.222.22
SamfordSC5.805.8025.9325.93-2.79-2.79
UNC GreensboroSC4.384.3879.3179.312.572.57
FurmanSC4.354.3565.5265.521.351.35
The CitadelSC4.294.2925.9325.93-2.07-2.07
WoffordSC4.294.2957.1457.140.610.61
MercerSC4.244.2450.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC4.244.2432.1432.14-1.51-1.51
VMISC4.244.2419.2319.23-2.61-2.61
Jacksonville St.OVC3.443.4463.3363.330.920.92
Tennessee TechOVC1.841.8453.3353.330.120.12
MarshallCUSA1.781.7868.7568.750.670.67
Tennessee MartinOVC1.741.7428.5728.57-0.75-0.75
UABCUSA1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
CharlotteCUSA1.691.6918.5218.52-1.06-1.06
AkronMAC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Alabama St.SWAC1.661.6626.6726.67-0.78-0.78
Georgia St.SB1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
WyomingMWC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Murray St.OVC0.260.2682.7682.760.170.17
Alabama A&MSWAC0.240.249.689.68-0.19-0.19
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.2331.0331.03-0.09-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.230.2322.2222.22-0.13-0.13
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.2169.7069.700.080.08
Austin PeayOVC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.2146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.190.1940.7440.74-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1812.5012.50-0.14-0.14
BelmontOVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
TroySB0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
MemphisAmer0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
DavidsonA100.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
LSUSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00