Chattanooga

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	284.4
Current RPI:	298
Expected SOS:	245
Current SOS:	202
Current Record:	6-16
Expected Record:	10-18
Current Conf Record:	3-9
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	269
Expected OOC SOS:	150

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-16	248.5	4.76%
11-17	268.3	22.92%
10-18	284.3	35.56%
9-19	295.7	25.27%
8-20	305.0	9.64%
7-21	314.4	1.77%
6-22	323.6	0.07%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chattanooga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Indiana (19.7)	B10	A	78-53	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Butler (141.5)	Horz	A	57-46	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Kennesaw St. (318.8)	ASun	H	59-65	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Savannah St. (210.3)	MEAC	H	65-63	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	H	74-76	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	A	84-76	L	0%	0.0
12-3	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	A	87-85	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Mercer (96.4)	ASun	A	67-56	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Kentucky (3.3)	SEC	A	87-62	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Longwood (318.3)	ind	H	85-50	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	H	74-59	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Tennessee (138.4)	SEC	A	76-63	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Western Carolina (259.5)	SC	H	78-62	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	H	65-63	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	51-48	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Samford (250.7)	SC	A	81-70	L	0%	0.0
1-19	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	A	81-72	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Elon (212.2)	SC	A	88-87	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Davidson (62.8)	SC	H	63-64	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	H	72-75	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Western Carolina (259.5)	SC	A	82-76	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Davidson (62.8)	SC	A	88-61	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Elon (212.2)	SC	H	0-0		66%	4.5
2-11	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	H	0-0		76%	7.7
2-15	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	A	0-0		43%	-1.8
2-18	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	H	0-0		88%	12.8
2-23	Furman (238.9)	SC	A	0-0		38%	-3.4
2-25	Samford (250.7)	SC	H	0-0		70%	5.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chattanooga's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Chattanooga's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Chattanooga.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Chattanooga	SC	26.42	26.34	21.95	30.48	-14.82	-10.28
Samford	SC	3.09	4.53	30.00	32.82	-1.24	-1.56
NC Greensboro	SC	2.89	4.44	31.82	31.26	-1.05	-1.67
Western Carolina	SC	5.12	4.41	33.33	36.33	-1.71	-1.21
Appalachian St.	SC	3.00	4.41	35.00	37.86	-0.90	-1.07
Elon	SC	2.79	4.40	50.00	48.39	0.00	-0.14
Davidson	SC	5.06	4.35	75.00	75.63	2.53	2.23
Georgia Southern	SC	5.06	4.34	36.84	38.37	-1.33	-1.01
College of Charleston	SC	2.90	2.72	56.52	58.54	0.38	0.47
Furman	SC	0.87	2.72	45.45	46.62	-0.08	-0.18
The Citadel	SC	0.67	2.72	9.52	11.45	-0.54	-2.09
Wofford	SC	2.99	2.69	59.09	59.24	0.54	0.50
Tennessee	SEC	2.46	1.97	42.86	42.65	-0.35	-0.29
Mercer	ASun	2.37	1.94	70.83	71.26	0.99	0.83
Kentucky	SEC	2.48	1.94	95.83	93.31	2.27	1.68
Indiana	B10	2.47	1.91	73.91	74.93	1.18	0.95
Butler	Horz	2.42	1.88	47.83	49.11	-0.11	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.42	1.88	31.82	36.55	-0.88	-0.50
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.42	1.88	57.14	60.48	0.35	0.39
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.32	1.85	4.35	7.83	-2.12	-1.56
Longwood	ind	2.27	1.79	30.00	26.78	-0.91	-0.83
Utah Valley	GWC	2.27	1.79	57.14	59.93	0.32	0.35
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.35	0.28	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.25	0.28	20.83	23.61	-0.14	-0.15
South Carolina	SEC	0.29	0.28	40.91	39.60	-0.05	-0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.36	0.22	14.29	16.80	-0.26	-0.15
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.21	0.21	69.57	65.88	0.08	0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.24	0.21	45.45	41.17	-0.02	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.20	0.19	40.91	43.65	-0.04	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.25	0.18	68.18	67.72	0.09	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.28	0.18	30.43	29.57	-0.11	-0.07
Georgia St.	CAA	0.21	0.17	66.67	69.71	0.07	0.07
North Carolina	ACC	0.15	0.16	86.96	83.30	0.11	0.11
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.16	73.91	68.65	0.10	0.06
East Carolina	CUSA	0.15	0.16	44.44	41.65	-0.02	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.25	0.16	54.17	47.95	0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.20	0.16	70.83	64.53	0.08	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.16	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.20	0.16	82.61	79.93	0.13	0.09
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.24	0.15	47.83	47.36	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.15	43.48	43.89	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.15	48.00	48.07	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.19	0.15	62.50	60.78	0.05	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	38.39	-0.04	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.13	22.22	32.99	-0.06	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.21	0.13	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.13	9.52	13.17	-0.12	-0.09
Valparaiso	Horz	0.16	0.13	65.22	63.55	0.05	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.15	0.13	57.69	58.27	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.13	66.67	63.50	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.13	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.13	34.78	34.75	-0.03	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.13	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.13	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.15	0.13	31.82	32.81	-0.05	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.13	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.15	0.12	68.42	68.62	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.12	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.12	22.73	24.64	-0.08	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.12	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.12	69.57	65.18	0.06	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.20	0.12	75.00	74.01	0.10	0.06
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.12	70.83	73.74	0.04	0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.19	0.12	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.12	79.17	76.62	0.06	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.16	0.10	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.10	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.10	14.29	17.12	-0.08	-0.07
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.10	33.33	41.30	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.10	34.78	37.18	-0.05	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.16	0.10	34.78	35.19	-0.05	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	39.13	36.12	-0.02	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	60.87	59.85	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.09	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.09	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.06
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.09	78.26	78.42	0.08	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.15	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.08	-0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.09	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.00	0.09	42.11	45.89	-0.00	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	8.70	13.12	-0.08	-0.07
Louisville	BE	0.14	0.09	79.17	74.20	0.08	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.09	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.07	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.07	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.07	38.10	37.80	-0.03	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.07	40.91	41.68	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.07	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.07	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.07	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.07	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.07	19.05	24.60	-0.03	-0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.07	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.07	76.19	70.71	0.05	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.07	9.09	12.82	-0.04	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.06	35.00	40.74	-0.03	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.06	82.61	80.50	0.00	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.50	0.03	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.06	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	72.73	71.57	0.02	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.06	70.83	66.50	0.04	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.06	30.00	31.40	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.06	62.50	61.43	0.02	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.27	-0.05	-0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.08	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	17.39	20.75	-0.06	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.06	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.41	0.03	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.06	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.06	69.57	71.58	0.04	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.08	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.03	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.06	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.06	63.64	56.68	0.00	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.06	69.57	66.33	0.04	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.03	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.04	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.00	0.03	70.83	72.24	0.00	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.14	-0.04	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.03	40.00	40.17	-0.00	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.99	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.29	-0.05	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.46	-0.00	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.00	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.00	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.02	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	56.52	54.28	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	36.00	40.36	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.47	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.00	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.00	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	78.26	74.29	0.03	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.03	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.03	63.64	57.79	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.01