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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


TCU

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:62.0
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:27
Current Record:16-11
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1143.86.47%
18-1253.632.73%
17-1364.743.83%
16-1478.116.96%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for TCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama St. (338.1)SWACH98-62W100%0.0
11-18Jacksonville St. (184.1)OVCH79-60W100%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (31.5)MVCH80-71W100%0.0
11-25UNLV (236.8)MWCA59-63W100%0.0
11-26Washington (195.0)P12N93-80W100%0.0
11-30Washington (195.0)P12H86-71W100%0.0
12-3Arkansas St. (74.9)SBH77-54W100%0.0
12-7SMU (17.9)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
12-10Wofford (194.0)SCH72-63W100%0.0
12-18Texas Southern (128.4)SWACH96-59W100%0.0
12-21Bradley (232.6)MVCH74-42W100%0.0
12-30Kansas (2.3)B12H80-86L0%0.0
1-3Oklahoma (166.0)B12H60-57W100%0.0
1-7West Virginia (25.2)B12A82-70L0%0.0
1-11Texas (155.2)B12A61-64W100%0.0
1-14Iowa St. (38.0)B12H84-77W100%0.0
1-18Texas Tech (104.2)B12A75-69L0%0.0
1-21Baylor (8.2)B12H53-62L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12A89-76L0%0.0
1-28Auburn (89.0)SECH80-88L0%0.0
2-1Kansas St. (66.7)B12A80-86W100%0.0
2-4Texas (155.2)B12H78-63W100%0.0
2-7Texas Tech (104.2)B12H62-61W100%0.0
2-11Baylor (8.2)B12A70-52L0%0.0
2-15Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12H68-71L0%0.0
2-18Iowa St. (38.0)B12A84-71L0%0.0
2-22Kansas (2.3)B12A87-68L0%0.0
2-25West Virginia (25.2)B12H0-023%-7.9
3-1Kansas St. (66.7)B12H0-057%1.9
3-4Oklahoma (166.0)B12A0-048%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

TCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


TCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  TCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TCUB1226.3926.3755.8653.493.091.84
KansasB124.444.2388.4687.003.423.13
Texas TechB124.454.2361.5459.951.030.84
BaylorB124.444.2380.0077.012.672.29
OklahomaB122.734.2334.6234.15-0.84-1.34
Kansas St.B122.694.2162.9662.540.701.06
TexasB124.384.2138.4637.24-1.01-1.07
West VirginiaB122.664.2177.7877.061.482.28
Iowa St.B124.414.2068.0065.811.591.33
Oklahoma St.B124.374.2064.0062.671.221.07
WashingtonP123.703.3336.0034.84-1.04-1.01
Texas SouthernSWAC1.961.7861.5464.830.450.53
AuburnSEC1.951.7859.2658.320.360.30
BradleyMVC1.951.7535.7135.98-0.56-0.49
Alabama St.SWAC1.921.7529.1729.95-0.80-0.70
Illinois St.MVC1.921.7285.1984.551.351.19
UNLVMWC1.921.7237.0435.96-0.50-0.48
Jacksonville St.OVC1.891.7053.8553.100.150.11
WoffordSC1.881.6946.1545.53-0.14-0.15
Arkansas St.SB1.851.6772.0070.970.810.70
SMUAmer1.851.6785.1985.061.301.17
Wichita St.MVC0.230.2286.2186.330.170.16
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.240.2214.2918.10-0.17-0.14
TulsaAmer0.200.2046.1547.81-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.240.1955.5655.660.030.02
DrakeMVC0.170.1722.2223.45-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.200.1735.7135.66-0.06-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1748.1547.59-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1737.5042.38-0.04-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.180.1748.0047.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.1748.2848.17-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.1722.2224.27-0.12-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1630.7734.71-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.100.1642.3139.94-0.02-0.03
LSUSEC0.200.1633.3331.80-0.07-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.200.1640.7442.89-0.04-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1653.8554.930.010.02
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1451.7250.330.010.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1450.0049.820.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1423.0823.14-0.09-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1448.1547.60-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1429.6331.16-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1420.0021.74-0.10-0.08
MarylandB100.140.1477.7876.990.080.07
ArizonaP120.170.1489.2987.680.130.10
Arizona St.P120.170.1446.4344.09-0.01-0.02
OregonP120.170.1485.7185.930.120.10
USCP120.100.1477.7875.870.060.07
MississippiSEC0.170.1460.7159.870.040.03
NevadaMWC0.130.1478.5778.260.080.08
ArkansasSEC0.130.1475.0071.920.070.06
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1488.8987.450.130.10
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1450.0049.270.00-0.00
StanfordP120.170.1450.0047.370.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1476.0076.570.090.07
AlabamaSEC0.170.1461.5459.750.040.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.1331.8233.09-0.06-0.05
UABCUSA0.170.1351.8553.220.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1265.3866.650.040.04
The CitadelSC0.140.1223.0822.08-0.07-0.06
VMISC0.100.1116.0016.75-0.07-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1122.2222.75-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1142.8643.65-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1157.1457.070.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.140.1146.1547.50-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.114.005.36-0.10-0.10
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1152.1749.960.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1137.5040.16-0.03-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.140.11100.0099.810.140.11
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.070.1188.8988.050.050.08
UtahP120.140.1160.0060.170.030.02
MemphisAmer0.070.1166.6763.170.020.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1151.7253.710.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1151.8551.810.000.00
TulaneAmer0.100.1118.5218.47-0.06-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1165.3864.150.030.03
TempleAmer0.100.1148.2850.61-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.100.1148.0046.99-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1142.3143.98-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.0955.5656.300.010.01
MercerSC0.100.0940.7440.78-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0957.6956.380.020.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0970.3767.240.040.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0959.2659.740.020.02
TroySB0.070.0853.8552.820.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.0855.5655.100.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0827.5928.17-0.05-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.0850.0049.130.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.0857.1456.440.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0857.6958.100.020.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0882.1480.600.040.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0856.0055.900.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0878.5778.520.060.05
South AlabamaSB0.070.0844.0042.77-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0853.5751.920.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0832.1430.40-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.100.0878.5776.170.060.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0850.0049.670.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.100.0882.1481.760.060.05
MichiganB100.100.0864.2963.090.030.02
RiceCUSA0.100.0864.0063.500.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0851.8552.250.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0851.8551.660.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7877.990.040.03
FurmanSC0.030.0664.2964.510.010.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0669.2368.790.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0630.7730.10-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.0079.920.040.03
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0644.0046.00-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0646.1546.49-0.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0662.9661.340.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0646.1546.96-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0614.8115.43-0.05-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0640.7442.17-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0650.0049.750.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0636.3636.47-0.01-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0625.0027.75-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0666.6766.210.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0640.0040.08-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0651.8553.680.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0673.0873.880.030.03
IowaB100.070.0653.5751.590.000.00
Little RockSB0.070.0644.0043.41-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0659.2657.930.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0659.0960.070.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0682.1480.660.040.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0629.1731.48-0.01-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0627.2728.66-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0614.2913.58-0.05-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0658.3359.220.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0633.3334.37-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0639.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0660.8762.050.010.01
VCUA100.070.0682.1479.370.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0642.3143.63-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0681.4880.840.020.03
XavierBE0.070.0664.2964.300.020.02
YaleIvy0.070.0659.0960.220.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0560.0059.400.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0534.6233.56-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0564.0064.920.020.02
DavidsonA100.070.0553.8552.600.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0525.9327.44-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0546.4343.89-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0564.0065.600.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0557.6958.300.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0541.6743.49-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0570.3769.130.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0542.8645.36-0.01-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0516.0016.87-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.030.0555.5655.020.000.01
IndianaB100.070.0553.5752.940.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0516.0016.19-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0533.3332.68-0.01-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0525.9325.77-0.02-0.03
NebraskaB100.070.0544.0042.70-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0557.6958.050.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0534.7833.41-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0525.0025.84-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0562.9662.600.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0571.4368.340.030.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0538.4640.55-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0559.2659.930.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0537.9339.64-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0532.1431.02-0.01-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0550.0046.860.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0548.2848.54-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0574.0773.870.030.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0536.0035.97-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0566.6767.600.010.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0526.0925.92-0.02-0.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0553.8553.510.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0355.5652.750.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0382.7682.940.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0360.0060.590.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.2321.44-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0340.7440.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0369.2370.270.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0364.2964.460.010.01
ArmyPat0.040.0339.2938.46-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0312.0011.80-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0337.0435.10-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0362.9661.470.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0357.6955.370.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0342.8642.57-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.040.0359.2660.160.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0375.0073.470.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0365.3864.780.010.01
Texas St.SB0.040.0354.1753.210.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0358.6259.810.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0369.5771.400.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0337.5039.90-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0357.6957.750.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0353.8554.810.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0322.7323.17-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0351.8550.690.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0330.7732.11-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0353.5750.750.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.1480.780.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0370.3770.540.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0326.9225.66-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.0013.36-0.03-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0326.0928.38-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0312.5014.87-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0364.2963.820.010.01