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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


TCU

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:23.4
Current RPI:17
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:15-5
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-54.60.05%
25-65.70.68%
24-77.94.12%
23-811.211.59%
22-915.721.78%
21-1021.825.31%
20-1129.319.98%
19-1238.411.42%
18-1347.94.18%
17-1458.20.76%
16-1571.70.11%
15-1684.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for TCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Louisiana Monroe (291.0)SBH83-73W100%0.0
11-13Tennessee Tech (169.8)OVCH100-63W100%0.0
11-15South Dakota (98.5)SumH76-71W100%0.0
11-20Nebraska Omaha (249.9)SumH99-66W100%0.0
11-24New Mexico (157.2)MWCN69-67W100%0.0
11-25St. Bonaventure (50.0)A10N79-89W100%0.0
11-29Belmont (81.7)OVCH87-76W100%0.0
12-2Yale (201.7)IvyH92-66W100%0.0
12-5SMU (41.6)AmerH94-83W100%0.0
12-8Nevada (14.5)MWCN84-80W100%0.0
12-18Texas Southern (226.8)SWACH91-72W100%0.0
12-22William & Mary (93.5)CAAH86-75W100%0.0
12-30Oklahoma (22.3)B12H89-90L0%0.0
1-2Baylor (68.8)B12A78-81W100%0.0
1-6Kansas (6.0)B12H84-88L0%0.0
1-10Texas (43.7)B12A99-98L0%0.0
1-13Oklahoma (22.3)B12A102-97L0%0.0
1-17Iowa St. (112.4)B12H96-73W100%0.0
1-20Kansas St. (59.0)B12A73-68L0%0.0
1-22West Virginia (18.9)B12H82-73W100%0.0
1-27Vanderbilt (140.3)SECA0-067%4.9
1-30Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12A0-057%1.8
2-3Texas Tech (26.2)B12H0-056%1.6
2-6Kansas (6.0)B12A0-021%-8.8
2-10Texas (43.7)B12H0-067%5.0
2-12West Virginia (18.9)B12A0-026%-7.3
2-17Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12H0-077%8.2
2-21Iowa St. (112.4)B12A0-065%4.2
2-24Baylor (68.8)B12H0-066%4.5
2-27Kansas St. (59.0)B12H0-068%5.2
3-3Texas Tech (26.2)B12A0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

TCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


TCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  TCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TCUB1226.4626.3170.5165.3010.868.05
KansasB122.944.1283.3379.101.962.40
Kansas St.B122.904.0973.6865.281.371.25
OklahomaB125.194.0975.0065.752.591.29
Texas TechB120.584.0978.9572.870.341.87
BaylorB122.884.0961.1155.870.640.48
Oklahoma St.B120.604.0768.4255.470.220.45
TexasB122.834.0763.1658.070.740.66
West VirginiaB122.904.0784.2178.711.982.34
Iowa St.B122.824.0761.1148.260.63-0.14
Nebraska OmahaSum2.901.8326.3229.06-1.37-0.77
Tennessee TechOVC2.681.7261.1155.120.600.18
Texas SouthernSWAC2.631.7221.0542.29-1.52-0.27
New MexicoMWC2.691.6947.3750.25-0.140.01
BelmontOVC2.571.6975.0077.161.280.92
NevadaMWC2.561.6990.0084.772.051.18
VanderbiltSEC0.121.6936.8435.66-0.03-0.48
South DakotaSum2.561.6777.7875.181.420.84
SMUAmer2.581.6473.6872.961.220.75
St. BonaventureA102.571.6470.5971.121.060.69
YaleIvy2.571.6443.7549.31-0.32-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB2.561.6428.5730.28-1.10-0.65
William & MaryCAA2.501.6168.7562.320.940.40
Oral RobertsSum0.190.2230.0032.54-0.08-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.270.2117.6527.34-0.17-0.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.2135.2940.46-0.06-0.04
Wichita St.Amer0.270.2178.9577.380.150.12
Boise St.MWC0.250.1878.9576.980.140.10
TulsaAmer0.130.1855.0053.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.1868.4263.970.020.05
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1742.8635.22-0.03-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1772.2272.970.060.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.350.167.1414.82-0.30-0.11
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1644.4446.01-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.1673.6868.040.030.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.1438.8943.36-0.06-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1470.0068.210.060.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1431.5836.43-0.05-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1311.7612.80-0.14-0.10
UCFAmer0.200.1368.4260.830.070.03
LipscombASun0.250.1352.9459.380.010.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.1368.4259.020.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1368.4264.160.050.04
MissouriSEC0.130.1366.6763.150.040.03
WyomingMWC0.180.1361.1156.790.040.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1378.9576.160.070.07
DenverSum0.130.1233.3336.47-0.04-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.130.1252.6351.680.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.1244.4450.31-0.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.1150.0045.850.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.1136.8444.03-0.06-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.200.1115.0020.28-0.14-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1131.5832.71-0.05-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1116.6724.90-0.09-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1123.5328.71-0.07-0.05
WashingtonP120.190.1170.0061.460.080.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1142.1143.50-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1173.6871.600.000.05
NorthwesternB100.140.1155.0050.370.010.00
SouthernSWAC0.130.1131.5840.82-0.05-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.1172.2268.930.000.04
USCP120.200.1171.4368.300.090.04
SyracuseACC0.200.1068.4261.280.070.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1045.0041.310.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1066.6763.450.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.060.1045.0045.47-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.1073.6865.250.030.03
AmericanPat0.130.1025.0026.03-0.06-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.105.8819.39-0.05-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.100.0010.26-0.06-0.08
PittsburghACC0.060.1040.0030.88-0.01-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0927.7831.08-0.06-0.03
DelawareCAA0.150.0947.3743.00-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.190.0955.0048.980.02-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.140.0963.1663.210.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0831.5836.23-0.05-0.02
DukeACC0.130.0889.4785.240.100.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.0811.1115.30-0.10-0.06
UMKCWAC0.130.0821.0524.76-0.07-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.130.0870.5975.960.050.04
CreightonBE0.140.0875.0070.720.070.03
WisconsinB100.140.0850.0046.270.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0829.4133.93-0.02-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0836.8432.75-0.02-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.0845.0047.06-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.130.0844.4450.08-0.010.00
OregonP120.200.0865.0063.810.060.02
DavidsonA100.130.0858.8261.440.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.0883.3381.450.090.05
Air ForceMWC0.120.0837.5031.78-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.130.0831.5829.03-0.05-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.0825.0039.91-0.06-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0811.1117.68-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.060.0860.0059.710.010.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0833.3339.89-0.04-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6755.900.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.130.0880.9583.260.080.05
MississippiSEC0.000.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.130.0861.9065.150.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0810.5318.34-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.0875.0067.910.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0861.1151.910.000.00
ToledoMAC0.130.0866.6767.670.040.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0845.0045.03-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0894.7486.110.060.06
Washington St.P120.130.0847.3741.43-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0858.8262.830.010.02
UC IrvineBW0.120.0830.0039.95-0.05-0.02
Little RockSB0.080.0622.2225.19-0.05-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0683.3381.420.060.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0657.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.000.0638.8944.430.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0660.0062.010.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.97-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.090.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.500.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.150.0625.0028.25-0.07-0.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1665.980.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0622.2227.310.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.130.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.0681.8276.870.090.03
BrownIvy0.150.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0620.0032.240.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3333.230.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.340.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0637.5046.700.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0664.7162.690.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0652.9460.230.000.01
DaytonA100.140.0547.3750.94-0.010.00
VermontAE0.140.0575.0077.870.070.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0526.3231.48-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.0561.1158.710.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0545.0049.28-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0570.0058.090.000.01
IowaB100.070.0547.6243.94-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.130.0566.6763.130.040.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.0583.3384.250.080.04
North TexasCUSA0.140.0544.4446.66-0.02-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0541.1839.14-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.140.0527.7827.26-0.06-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0550.0051.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0547.3746.930.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0543.7549.11-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.057.6923.24-0.06-0.03
UTSACUSA0.140.0541.1839.66-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0585.7180.060.050.03
ArizonaP120.130.0580.0078.940.080.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0552.9452.670.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0510.0016.770.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0515.7922.640.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0565.0054.600.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0566.6763.070.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0523.5325.630.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0589.4785.550.050.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.059.5217.86-0.05-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0542.1132.460.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0510.0019.62-0.05-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0537.5037.670.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0573.6869.660.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0578.9573.000.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0540.0043.34-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0552.6355.280.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0561.1153.190.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0510.5314.830.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0521.0521.99-0.04-0.03
MichiganB100.060.0576.1970.800.030.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0572.2274.730.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0572.2258.880.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0533.3340.35-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0563.6459.480.020.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0533.3340.10-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0538.8942.58-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0535.0026.13-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.330.010.00
TulaneAmer0.130.0563.1657.870.030.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0511.1118.00-0.05-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.0568.4270.820.040.02
WoffordSC0.000.0568.7563.660.000.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0557.8958.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.12-0.04-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.390.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.550.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0352.9455.030.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.870.050.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0325.0043.18-0.04-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.22-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.610.030.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.130.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.770.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.52-0.04-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0378.9569.820.040.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0370.5969.630.030.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.250.030.01
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.710.020.00
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.57-0.04-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0064.130.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.74-0.02-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.940.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.170.020.01
ColoradoP120.060.0360.0053.720.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.040.010.00
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.350.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.93-0.03-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4776.990.000.01
BYUWCC0.060.0380.9576.240.040.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0323.5328.20-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0384.2173.180.040.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0325.0027.93-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.020.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0357.8954.500.010.00
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.740.000.00
UMBCAE0.060.0355.5655.550.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0352.6358.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0368.7564.010.020.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0364.7166.850.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0355.0052.480.010.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0358.8262.450.010.01