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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


TCU

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:67.0
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:30
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1567.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for TCU.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH98-62W100%0.0
11-18Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH79-60W100%0.0
11-21Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH80-71W100%0.0
11-25UNLV (242.0)MWCA59-63W100%0.0
11-26Washington (211.0)P12N93-80W100%0.0
11-30Washington (211.0)P12H86-71W100%0.0
12-3Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH77-54W100%0.0
12-7SMU (13.0)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
12-10Wofford (190.0)SCH72-63W100%0.0
12-18Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH96-59W100%0.0
12-21Bradley (220.0)MVCH74-42W100%0.0
12-30Kansas (4.0)B12H80-86L0%0.0
1-3Oklahoma (168.0)B12H60-57W100%0.0
1-7West Virginia (24.0)B12A82-70L0%0.0
1-11Texas (156.0)B12A61-64W100%0.0
1-14Iowa St. (21.0)B12H84-77W100%0.0
1-18Texas Tech (124.0)B12A75-69L0%0.0
1-21Baylor (11.0)B12H53-62L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A89-76L0%0.0
1-28Auburn (113.0)SECH80-88L0%0.0
2-1Kansas St. (57.0)B12A80-86W100%0.0
2-4Texas (156.0)B12H78-63W100%0.0
2-7Texas Tech (124.0)B12H62-61W100%0.0
2-11Baylor (11.0)B12A70-52L0%0.0
2-15Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H68-71L0%0.0
2-18Iowa St. (21.0)B12A84-71L0%0.0
2-22Kansas (4.0)B12A87-68L0%0.0
2-25West Virginia (24.0)B12H60-61L0%0.0
3-1Kansas St. (57.0)B12H74-75L0%0.0
3-4Oklahoma (168.0)B12A73-68L0%0.0
3-8Oklahoma (168.0)B12N82-63W100%0.0
3-9Kansas (4.0)B12A82-85W100%0.0
3-10Iowa St. (21.0)B12N84-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

TCU's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


TCU's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  TCU.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TCUB1226.5426.5451.0351.030.550.55
Iowa St.B125.495.4970.0070.002.202.20
KansasB125.425.4289.6689.664.304.30
OklahomaB125.415.4135.7135.71-1.55-1.55
West VirginiaB124.094.0975.0075.002.052.05
Kansas St.B124.024.0261.2961.290.910.91
TexasB124.024.0235.4835.48-1.17-1.17
Texas TechB123.993.9956.6756.670.530.53
Oklahoma St.B123.993.9958.6258.620.690.69
BaylorB123.993.9975.8675.862.062.06
WashingtonP123.033.0331.0331.03-1.15-1.15
Texas SouthernSWAC1.641.6469.7069.700.650.65
AuburnSEC1.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
Alabama St.SWAC1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
BradleyMVC1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
UNLVMWC1.591.5935.4835.48-0.46-0.46
Illinois St.MVC1.561.5683.8783.871.061.06
Jacksonville St.OVC1.541.5458.0658.060.250.25
WoffordSC1.541.5444.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Arkansas St.SB1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
SMUAmer1.521.5287.8887.881.151.15
Wichita St.MVC0.260.2687.8887.880.200.20
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.2121.8821.88-0.12-0.12
DrakeMVC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
ColoradoP120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
USCP120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1420.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
LSUSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
NevadaMWC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.120.1296.9796.970.110.11
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1232.0032.00-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
UMKCWAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.106.906.90-0.08-0.08
VMISC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
IllinoisB100.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01