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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:249.3
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:108
Current Record:4-13
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:242
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17162.00.01%
11-18170.10.10%
10-19184.40.68%
9-20205.03.96%
8-21222.411.74%
7-22238.924.86%
6-23254.731.57%
5-24269.621.14%
4-25283.15.93%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Cal Poly (309.0)BWH77-68W100%0.0
11-15Weber St. (145.1)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (189.8)MACN77-88L0%0.0
11-22Little Rock (206.8)SBN65-66W100%0.0
11-23St. Bonaventure (89.6)A10N63-89L0%0.0
11-27Portland St. (227.3)BSkyH85-91L0%0.0
12-3Belmont (86.8)OVCH77-85L0%0.0
12-7Long Beach St. (226.6)BWA75-66L0%0.0
12-11USC (40.5)P12A93-67L0%0.0
12-20Louisiana Lafayette (111.3)SBA90-64L0%0.0
12-22Montana (174.2)BSkyA71-70L0%0.0
12-29Gonzaga (6.4)WCCA92-62L0%0.0
12-31Portland (195.7)WCCA73-60L0%0.0
1-5Loyola Marymount (154.1)WCCH71-70W100%0.0
1-7San Diego (189.0)WCCH68-76L0%0.0
1-12Pacific (214.0)WCCA79-74L0%0.0
1-14Santa Clara (161.8)WCCH61-75L0%0.0
1-19BYU (69.9)WCCA0-05%-18.9
1-21Saint Mary's (19.7)WCCA0-01%-24.9
1-26Portland (195.7)WCCH0-049%-0.3
1-28Gonzaga (6.4)WCCH0-01%-24.9
2-2San Francisco (111.2)WCCA0-013%-12.7
2-4Pacific (214.0)WCCH0-052%0.5
2-9BYU (69.9)WCCH0-013%-12.7
2-11San Diego (189.0)WCCA0-029%-6.3
2-16Santa Clara (161.8)WCCA0-017%-10.6
2-18Loyola Marymount (154.1)WCCA0-019%-9.7
2-23Saint Mary's (19.7)WCCH0-05%-18.7
2-25San Francisco (111.2)WCCH0-028%-6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.5426.3919.1818.62-16.36-16.56
BYUWCC0.534.4668.4266.540.201.47
San FranciscoWCC0.454.4361.1157.240.100.64
Loyola MarymountWCC3.314.4253.3348.520.22-0.13
San DiegoWCC3.184.4243.7537.05-0.40-1.14
PacificWCC3.214.3935.2932.13-0.94-1.57
Santa ClaraWCC3.214.3947.0643.51-0.19-0.57
Saint Mary'sWCC0.364.3988.2486.790.273.23
PortlandWCC3.314.3646.6739.70-0.22-0.90
GonzagaWCC3.114.33100.0096.743.114.05
Portland St.BSky3.121.9950.0052.700.000.11
MontanaBSky3.131.8850.0059.150.000.34
Weber St.BSky3.021.8758.3366.840.500.63
USCP123.111.8783.3371.932.070.82
Little RockSB3.211.8460.0053.110.640.11
Long Beach St.BW2.941.7917.6533.83-1.90-0.58
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.031.7860.0061.230.610.40
St. BonaventureA103.121.7864.7161.620.920.41
Central MichiganMAC3.111.7853.3350.140.210.01
Cal PolyBW2.941.7821.4330.58-1.68-0.69
BelmontOVC2.941.7271.4372.011.260.76
Cal St. FullertonBW0.470.3340.0040.94-0.09-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.250.2950.0058.480.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.370.2717.6521.39-0.24-0.16
Sacramento St.BSky0.190.2721.4326.05-0.11-0.13
UC RiversideBW0.330.2715.3827.49-0.23-0.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.260.2614.2927.70-0.19-0.12
UCLAP120.340.2694.7489.340.310.21
Montana St.BSky0.300.2529.4138.85-0.12-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.2440.0046.09-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.270.2233.3342.17-0.09-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.2156.2559.190.020.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.2168.7570.380.030.09
UC DavisBW0.290.2152.9454.870.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.250.2150.0041.050.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.210.1912.5019.01-0.15-0.12
IdahoBSky0.280.1835.7144.05-0.08-0.02
DaytonA100.170.1875.0076.080.090.09
NevadaMWC0.170.1883.3378.610.120.10
Idaho St.BSky0.080.186.6718.54-0.07-0.11
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1858.8264.270.030.05
WashingtonP120.270.1747.0642.26-0.02-0.03
TroySB0.080.1747.0648.08-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.170.1788.8983.150.130.11
North DakotaBSky0.190.1646.1554.02-0.010.01
FloridaSEC0.360.1582.3577.050.230.08
South DakotaSum0.260.1557.8957.060.040.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.200.1540.0044.61-0.04-0.02
Oregon St.P120.250.1517.6514.96-0.16-0.10
ColoradoP120.170.1552.9454.300.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.1443.7543.61-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.160.1450.0035.480.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.310.1462.5055.530.080.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.1262.5065.730.020.04
BuffaloMAC0.190.1237.5045.11-0.05-0.01
StanfordP120.190.1252.9447.220.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.210.1250.0044.340.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.1240.0044.11-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.180.1264.7165.910.050.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1225.0028.48-0.09-0.05
Green BayHorz0.270.1256.2554.680.030.01
MassachusettsA100.160.1161.1159.260.040.02
Saint LouisA100.080.1127.7824.41-0.04-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.080.1177.7877.180.050.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1027.7829.38-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.210.0933.3333.44-0.07-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0947.3745.13-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.180.0944.4442.66-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.170.0956.2553.600.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.0960.0053.490.040.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0946.1553.09-0.010.01
AkronMAC0.180.0982.3575.750.120.05
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0928.5731.55-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0962.5060.130.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0953.3355.950.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.0935.7136.20-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0943.7541.38-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0953.3345.900.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.0953.3361.460.010.02
Utah St.MWC0.110.0943.7543.64-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.180.0956.2551.920.020.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0952.9451.000.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.0957.1458.850.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.0988.2484.470.130.06
PrincetonIvy0.100.0960.0066.160.020.03
IllinoisB100.090.0961.1153.510.020.01
UtahP120.080.0966.6764.760.030.03
OregonP120.150.0888.2482.680.120.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0733.3333.25-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0755.5653.980.000.01
LipscombASun0.200.0741.1847.63-0.03-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0731.2539.90-0.04-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.0664.7166.950.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.090.0662.5063.040.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0637.5043.18-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0623.0830.99-0.05-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0637.5044.59-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.0622.2227.20-0.10-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.0617.6524.66-0.12-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.090.0664.7156.190.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0612.5024.41-0.06-0.03
BryantNEC0.090.0622.2235.39-0.05-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.0622.2230.92-0.10-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0664.7161.950.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5034.43-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0611.1123.08-0.07-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0626.6732.18-0.04-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0617.6535.23-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0638.8939.34-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.090.0664.7159.940.030.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0614.2929.37-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0647.0648.43-0.01-0.00
ToledoMAC0.090.0652.9452.830.010.00
UABCUSA0.000.0658.8263.680.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0631.2536.83-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.180.0672.2266.110.080.02
New OrleansSlnd0.170.0646.1551.20-0.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.170.0617.6527.66-0.11-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0630.7736.84-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0621.4336.57-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0650.0042.010.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0676.4777.760.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0629.4134.19-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0049.630.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.060.0014.41-0.08-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0657.8953.010.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0642.1142.60-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0622.2225.54-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0323.5328.53-0.05-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0327.7834.21-0.04-0.01
DenverSum0.110.0361.1157.840.030.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0343.7548.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.110.0357.8962.290.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0382.3582.810.060.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0347.0655.40-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0323.5324.34-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0327.7834.92-0.04-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0355.5655.700.010.00
ElonCAA0.100.0347.0649.73-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0361.1163.000.020.01
UTSACUSA0.100.0343.7538.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0335.2935.32-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0316.6718.35-0.06-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0317.6529.57-0.06-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0364.7158.480.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0327.7830.30-0.04-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0347.0648.25-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0362.5068.380.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0323.0831.10-0.05-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0378.9570.200.050.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6767.310.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0350.0066.230.000.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0356.2551.290.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.090.0342.8647.01-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.080.0341.1845.53-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0337.5038.14-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0363.1663.680.020.01
DavidsonA100.000.0356.2555.630.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0368.7573.530.030.01
FordhamA100.080.0335.2931.88-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0364.7156.510.020.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0344.4445.45-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.080.0394.4481.660.070.02
La SalleA100.000.0366.6762.100.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0383.3377.690.050.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0326.3227.81-0.04-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0384.2180.540.060.02
RichmondA100.080.0364.7158.500.020.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0342.1146.85-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0331.2542.02-0.03-0.00
TexasB120.080.0338.8935.71-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0388.2484.340.060.02
VCUA100.000.0377.7873.850.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0378.9582.970.050.02
CornellIvy0.080.0320.0024.59-0.05-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0361.1155.110.020.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0361.1157.810.020.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0350.0051.390.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0368.4252.460.030.00
SMUAmer0.080.0378.9576.610.040.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0352.9450.980.000.00