Pepperdine

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	212.0
Current RPI:	212
Expected SOS:	160
Current SOS:	160
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Conf Record:	4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	195
Expected OOC SOS:	324

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	212.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	81-75	L	0%
11-13	California (54.0)	P12	A	79-62	L	0%
11-16	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	H	58-56	W	100%
11-20	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	53-57	W	100%
11-24	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	72-62	W	100%
11-29	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	66-76	W	100%
12-1	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	67-63	L	0%
12-5	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	62-40	W	100%
12-8	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	56-63	W	100%
12-16	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	77-80	L	0%
12-19	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	N	58-66	W	100%
12-20	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	69-54	L	0%
1-3	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	62-78	L	0%
1-5	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	54-47	W	100%
1-10	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	76-51	L	0%
1-12	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	50-62	L	0%
1-19	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	76-83	L	0%
1-24	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	57-60	W	100%
1-26	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	84-72	L	0%
1-31	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	61-63	L	0%
2-2	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	78-86	L	0%
2-7	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	82-56	L	0%
2-9	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	68-72	W	100%
2-14	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	52-50	W	100%
2-16	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	70-60	L	0%
2-23	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	64-58	L	0%
2-27	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	48-87	L	0%
3-2	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	76-69	L	0%
3-7	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	N	62-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pepperdine	WCC	26.37	26.37	39.57	39.57	-5.50	-5.50
San Diego	WCC	6.12	6.12	37.93	37.93	-1.48	-1.48
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.51	4.51	33.33	33.33	-1.50	-1.50
St. Mary's	WCC	4.42	4.42	80.00	80.00	2.65	2.65
Gonzaga	WCC	4.42	4.42	93.33	93.33	3.83	3.83
Brigham Young	WCC	4.39	4.39	62.07	62.07	1.06	1.06
Portland	WCC	4.39	4.39	32.14	32.14	-1.57	-1.57
Santa Clara	WCC	4.36	4.36	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
San Francisco	WCC	4.33	4.33	40.74	40.74	-0.80	-0.80
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.03	2.03	39.29	39.29	-0.44	-0.44
Hawaii	BW	1.95	1.95	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
UC Irvine	BW	1.93	1.93	56.25	56.25	0.24	0.24
Utah Valley	GWC	1.90	1.90	33.33	33.33	-0.63	-0.63
Washington St.	P12	1.89	1.89	41.94	41.94	-0.31	-0.31
UC Riverside	BW	1.89	1.89	14.81	14.81	-1.33	-1.33
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.85	1.85	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Tulane	CUSA	1.80	1.80	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Montana St.	BSky	1.78	1.78	40.74	40.74	-0.33	-0.33
California	P12	1.75	1.75	63.33	63.33	0.47	0.47
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Pacific	BW	0.56	0.56	62.50	62.50	0.14	0.14
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.40	0.40	31.03	31.03	-0.15	-0.15
Cal Poly	BW	0.40	0.40	55.17	55.17	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.31	0.31	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.31	0.31	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.26	0.26	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Montana	BSky	0.26	0.26	79.31	79.31	0.15	0.15
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.24	0.24	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.23	0.23	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Utah	P12	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.21	0.21	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.20	0.20	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.17	0.17	73.53	73.53	0.08	0.08
Tulsa	CUSA	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01