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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:134.0
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:148
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:338



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH89-74W100%0.0
11-19San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA44-63W100%0.0
11-24Iowa (43.0)B10A72-61L0%0.0
12-4Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH66-56W100%0.0
12-6Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA62-74W100%0.0
12-13Arizona St. (102.0)P12A81-74L0%0.0
12-15South Alabama (275.0)SBH78-68W100%0.0
12-17Howard (255.0)MEACH53-45W100%0.0
12-20Richmond (56.0)A10N63-65L0%0.0
12-27IUPUI (260.0)SumH53-55L0%0.0
12-29Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCA56-69W100%0.0
1-1Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH59-68L0%0.0
1-3Pacific (241.0)WCCH71-61W100%0.0
1-8BYU (36.0)WCCA61-67W100%0.0
1-10San Diego (157.0)WCCA47-59W100%0.0
1-15Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH76-78L0%0.0
1-17Portland (149.0)WCCH67-63W100%0.0
1-22San Francisco (181.0)WCCA71-59L0%0.0
1-24Santa Clara (202.0)WCCA60-57L0%0.0
1-29Pacific (241.0)WCCA43-50W100%0.0
1-31Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA62-67W100%0.0
2-5BYU (36.0)WCCH80-74W100%0.0
2-7San Diego (157.0)WCCH50-72L0%0.0
2-12Portland (149.0)WCCA69-52L0%0.0
2-14Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA56-48L0%0.0
2-19Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH64-55W100%0.0
2-21San Francisco (181.0)WCCH54-56L0%0.0
2-28Loyola Marymount (268.0)WCCH65-49W100%0.0
3-7San Diego (157.0)WCCN50-47W100%0.0
3-9Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN79-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.5326.5356.2556.253.323.32
GonzagaWCC6.056.0593.3393.335.245.24
San DiegoWCC5.935.9348.1548.15-0.22-0.22
BYUWCC4.514.5176.6776.672.412.41
Santa ClaraWCC4.494.4939.2939.29-0.96-0.96
PortlandWCC4.464.4650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC4.464.4637.9337.93-1.08-1.08
Loyola MarymountWCC4.404.4025.0025.00-2.20-2.20
PacificWCC4.394.3934.6234.62-1.35-1.35
Saint Mary'sWCC4.374.3770.3770.371.781.78
San Jose St.MWC1.861.860.000.00-1.86-1.86
Cal St. FullertonBW1.811.8125.0025.00-0.90-0.90
Fresno St.MWC1.791.7944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
RichmondA101.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
IUPUISum1.751.7530.0030.00-0.70-0.70
South AlabamaSB1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
HowardMEAC1.751.7546.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Arizona St.P121.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
IowaB101.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Cal PolyBW0.380.3840.7440.74-0.07-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.310.3161.2961.290.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.310.3174.1974.190.150.15
Western MichiganMAC0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.250.2575.7675.760.130.13
Utah St.MWC0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
HawaiiBW0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
UCLAP120.210.2160.6160.610.050.05
NevadaMWC0.200.2024.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2081.2581.250.130.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Washington St.P120.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
UC DavisBW0.170.1779.3179.310.100.10
UC RiversideBW0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
StanfordP120.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.150.1591.1891.180.130.13
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
USCP120.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
WashingtonP120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00