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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:127.0
Current RPI:129
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:135
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1095.82.51%
17-11110.329.64%
16-12127.041.09%
15-13145.321.99%
14-14162.44.48%
13-15179.40.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fresno St. (123.2)MWCA69-66L0%0.0
11-19UCLA (70.9)P12A81-67L0%0.0
11-23Duquesne (113.9)A10N70-84W100%0.0
11-24Murray St. (185.5)OVCN55-59L0%0.0
11-25Drake (305.1)MVCN69-53L0%0.0
11-29Montana (145.5)BSkyH69-63W100%0.0
12-5Cal St. Northridge (276.4)BWA55-70W100%0.0
12-9Long Beach St. (101.4)BWH77-75W100%0.0
12-12Ball St. (155.8)MACA63-72W100%0.0
12-18Louisiana Lafayette (108.6)SBH79-59W100%0.0
12-21Gonzaga (49.0)WCCA99-73L0%0.0
12-23Portland (241.6)WCCA87-79L0%0.0
1-2Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCH68-65W100%0.0
1-7Pacific (241.2)WCCH81-76W100%0.0
1-9Saint Mary's (38.3)WCCH67-64W100%0.0
1-14Santa Clara (263.6)WCCA62-60L0%0.0
1-16San Francisco (226.0)WCCA84-98W100%0.0
1-21San Diego (289.0)WCCH76-58W100%0.0
1-23BYU (72.5)WCCH71-65W100%0.0
1-28San Diego (289.0)WCCA65-75W100%0.0
1-30BYU (72.5)WCCA88-77L0%0.0
2-4Portland (241.6)WCCH70-73L0%0.0
2-6Gonzaga (49.0)WCCH66-69L0%0.0
2-11Saint Mary's (38.3)WCCA0-09%-14.5
2-13Pacific (241.2)WCCA0-061%3.0
2-18San Francisco (226.0)WCCH0-082%9.9
2-20Santa Clara (263.6)WCCH0-084%10.9
2-27Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCA0-068%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.5026.4557.5859.264.024.90
San FranciscoWCC3.134.6857.1453.270.450.31
GonzagaWCC5.124.6576.1975.162.682.34
BYUWCC4.984.6268.1870.891.811.93
Loyola MarymountWCC3.174.6140.9140.30-0.58-0.90
San DiegoWCC4.984.6135.0031.38-1.50-1.72
PacificWCC3.034.6026.3229.67-1.44-1.87
PortlandWCC5.034.5934.7834.11-1.53-1.46
Santa ClaraWCC2.984.5827.2729.20-1.35-1.91
Saint Mary'sWCC2.994.5890.0088.592.393.53
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.522.0730.0029.60-1.01-0.84
UCLAP122.431.9454.5551.690.220.07
Long Beach St.BW2.421.9447.6253.18-0.120.12
Fresno St.MWC2.281.9260.0058.210.460.31
MontanaBSky2.321.9161.1164.780.520.56
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.221.8161.1164.120.490.51
Ball St.MAC2.171.7966.6761.280.720.40
DrakeMVC2.171.7918.1820.94-1.38-1.04
DuquesneA102.171.7966.6758.310.720.30
Murray St.OVC2.171.7942.8647.78-0.31-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.390.4435.0032.28-0.12-0.16
UC IrvineBW0.300.3972.7371.610.140.17
UC DavisBW0.340.3140.0036.78-0.07-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.300.3145.8341.66-0.02-0.05
ArizonaP120.340.3179.1778.310.200.18
Cal PolyBW0.250.2530.0034.56-0.10-0.08
NevadaMWC0.200.2255.0054.530.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.310.2225.0022.77-0.15-0.12
Weber St.BSky0.270.2265.0069.270.080.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.260.2042.1145.73-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.1942.8650.39-0.030.00
Boise St.MWC0.240.1963.6462.520.070.05
EvansvilleMVC0.200.1975.0076.230.100.10
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1852.3850.420.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1752.3854.010.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.250.1631.5837.72-0.09-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.200.1672.7372.030.090.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1572.0070.500.080.06
WashingtonP120.250.1565.2261.080.070.03
USCP120.250.1578.2673.060.140.07
ColoradoP120.180.1569.5765.300.070.05
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1315.0015.36-0.08-0.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1310.0013.12-0.12-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1313.6415.80-0.07-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1345.0046.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1333.3334.94-0.05-0.04
DenverSum0.150.1354.1751.800.010.00
HawaiiBW0.050.1384.2181.680.030.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1343.4842.63-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1259.0959.640.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.200.1233.3335.50-0.07-0.04
Oregon St.P120.090.1261.9056.430.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.140.1260.8762.990.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1254.1755.090.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.1245.0046.77-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.150.1281.8278.150.090.07
Washington St.P120.190.1236.3632.01-0.05-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.1250.0051.170.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1066.6767.680.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1025.0024.37-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1040.9143.55-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0965.2262.900.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0950.0046.610.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.0954.1750.940.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.099.5213.53-0.08-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.095.007.24-0.09-0.08
RiceCUSA0.100.0928.5729.71-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.140.0966.6766.540.050.03
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0927.7834.49-0.07-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0963.1658.810.010.02
BradleyMVC0.100.0912.5012.85-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0952.1751.940.010.00
UNLVMWC0.150.0950.0055.190.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0931.5831.81-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.0916.6720.14-0.09-0.05
UtahP120.090.0972.7368.540.040.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0754.5556.010.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0740.9143.72-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0747.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0728.5726.96-0.02-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0726.0929.20-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0790.4886.860.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0742.8639.18-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0737.5040.51-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0740.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0757.8956.090.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0742.8646.34-0.02-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0745.0043.21-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0733.3334.19-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0747.8350.14-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0738.8938.51-0.01-0.02
TroySB0.060.0723.8126.69-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0766.6770.540.020.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0717.3920.65-0.03-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.5257.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.0022.35-0.03-0.04
DrexelCAA0.100.0613.6418.14-0.07-0.04
KansasB120.100.0681.8277.570.070.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0638.8945.64-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.260.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0617.6529.25-0.07-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.48-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0620.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0630.4326.49-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0672.7372.450.040.03
LipscombASun0.050.0625.0029.27-0.02-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.74-0.01-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.51-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0690.4885.570.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0647.8346.87-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0678.2678.040.050.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.350.020.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.51-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0652.3847.050.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0645.4546.29-0.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0636.8438.40-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.100.0660.0057.950.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0686.3682.350.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0636.8441.46-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0678.2674.360.030.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0635.0038.53-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0631.8230.48-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0661.9059.420.010.01
Saint LouisA100.100.0638.1033.40-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0650.0053.300.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0670.0069.100.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0659.0960.070.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.650.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0354.5554.930.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0363.6462.150.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0359.0953.030.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.020.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0371.4368.720.020.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0380.9575.490.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.340.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.630.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.76-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.45-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.060.020.01
IowaB100.050.0381.8280.120.030.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.840.020.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.33-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.02
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.040.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.900.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.290.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.21-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.5552.810.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.380.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.47-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0340.9139.32-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0356.5256.620.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.550.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0382.6178.860.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.030.030.02
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.910.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.570.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.780.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.60-0.01-0.01