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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:129.0
Current RPI:129
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:142
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:109
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13129.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA69-66L0%0.0
11-19UCLA (102.0)P12A81-67L0%0.0
11-23Duquesne (162.0)A10N70-84W100%0.0
11-24Murray St. (169.0)OVCN55-59L0%0.0
11-25Drake (325.0)MVCN69-53L0%0.0
11-29Montana (145.0)BSkyH69-63W100%0.0
12-5Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA55-70W100%0.0
12-9Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH77-75W100%0.0
12-12Ball St. (179.0)MACA63-72W100%0.0
12-18Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH79-59W100%0.0
12-21Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA99-73L0%0.0
12-23Portland (249.0)WCCA87-79L0%0.0
1-2Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH68-65W100%0.0
1-7Pacific (268.0)WCCH81-76W100%0.0
1-9Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH67-64W100%0.0
1-14Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA62-60L0%0.0
1-16San Francisco (228.0)WCCA84-98W100%0.0
1-21San Diego (302.0)WCCH76-58W100%0.0
1-23BYU (76.0)WCCH71-65W100%0.0
1-28San Diego (302.0)WCCA65-75W100%0.0
1-30BYU (76.0)WCCA88-77L0%0.0
2-4Portland (249.0)WCCH70-73L0%0.0
2-6Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH66-69L0%0.0
2-11Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA63-69W100%0.0
2-13Pacific (268.0)WCCA63-65W100%0.0
2-18San Francisco (228.0)WCCH72-82L0%0.0
2-20Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH88-76W100%0.0
2-27Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA90-83L0%0.0
3-5San Francisco (228.0)WCCN90-86W100%0.0
3-7Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCN81-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.5626.5658.0958.094.304.30
Saint Mary'sWCC6.066.0689.2989.294.764.76
San FranciscoWCC6.036.0350.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC4.594.5976.6776.672.452.45
Loyola MarymountWCC4.514.5142.8642.86-0.64-0.64
BYUWCC4.484.4870.0070.001.791.79
San DiegoWCC4.424.4229.6329.63-1.80-1.80
PortlandWCC4.394.3931.0331.03-1.67-1.67
Santa ClaraWCC4.394.3932.1432.14-1.57-1.57
PacificWCC4.354.3525.0025.00-2.17-2.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.941.9429.6329.63-0.79-0.79
Fresno St.MWC1.821.8270.9770.970.760.76
MontanaBSky1.801.8064.2964.290.520.52
Long Beach St.BW1.801.8058.0658.060.290.29
UCLAP121.801.8045.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
Ball St.MAC1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
DrakeMVC1.671.6717.2417.24-1.09-1.09
DuquesneA101.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.400.4028.5728.57-0.17-0.17
UC IrvineBW0.390.3971.8871.880.170.17
UC RiversideBW0.330.3338.7138.71-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.300.3032.1432.14-0.11-0.11
ArizonaP120.280.2875.7675.760.140.14
Cal PolyBW0.240.2428.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2041.3841.38-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
USCP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
WashingtonP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1111.1111.11-0.09-0.09
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
CaliforniaP120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0987.1087.100.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01