Pepperdine

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	317.0
Current RPI:	317
Expected SOS:	135
Current SOS:	135
Current Record:	5-26
Expected Record:	5-26
Current Conf Record:	3-17
Expected Conf Record:	3-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-6
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	324
Expected OOC SOS:	207

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-26	317.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	78-47	L	0%
11-17	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	82-84	L	0%
11-20	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	84-92	L	0%
11-21	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	80-76	W	100%
11-24	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	A	81-65	L	0%
11-29	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	82-88	L	0%
12-2	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	91-81	L	0%
12-5	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	70-59	W	100%
12-9	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	71-78	L	0%
12-16	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	79-62	L	0%
12-19	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	72-67	L	0%
12-28	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	72-65	L	0%
12-30	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	74-66	L	0%
1-4	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	59-89	L	0%
1-6	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	67-80	L	0%
1-11	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	83-63	L	0%
1-13	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	67-91	L	0%
1-18	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	92-78	L	0%
1-20	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	80-73	L	0%
1-25	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	71-70	W	100%
1-27	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	59-73	L	0%
2-1	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	85-76	L	0%
2-3	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	72-81	L	0%
2-8	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	66-68	L	0%
2-10	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	85-79	L	0%
2-15	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	70-75	L	0%
2-17	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	81-67	L	0%
2-22	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	75-61	L	0%
2-24	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	75-64	W	100%
3-2	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	N	69-85	W	100%
3-3	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	N	69-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pepperdine	WCC	26.48	26.48	12.06	12.06	-20.10	-20.10
Saint Mary's	WCC	5.77	5.77	83.33	83.33	3.85	3.85
Santa Clara	WCC	5.73	5.73	30.77	30.77	-2.21	-2.21
BYU	WCC	4.37	4.37	68.75	68.75	1.64	1.64
Gonzaga	WCC	4.32	4.32	87.50	87.50	3.24	3.24
San Francisco	WCC	4.31	4.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.28	4.28	32.14	32.14	-1.53	-1.53
Pacific	WCC	4.23	4.23	37.93	37.93	-1.02	-1.02
San Diego	WCC	4.23	4.23	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Portland	WCC	4.20	4.20	22.22	22.22	-2.33	-2.33
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.93	1.93	68.97	68.97	0.73	0.73
Cal Poly	BW	1.88	1.88	21.43	21.43	-1.08	-1.08
UC Riverside	BW	1.88	1.88	25.00	25.00	-0.94	-0.94
Long Beach St.	BW	1.86	1.86	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Weber St.	BSky	1.79	1.79	59.26	59.26	0.33	0.33
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.73	1.73	60.00	60.00	0.35	0.35
Southern Utah	BSky	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.67	1.67	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Texas A&M	SEC	1.66	1.66	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.64	1.64	29.63	29.63	-0.67	-0.67
Belmont	OVC	1.61	1.61	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
UC Davis	BW	0.45	0.45	66.67	66.67	0.15	0.15
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.43	0.43	62.07	62.07	0.10	0.10
Portland St.	BSky	0.33	0.33	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.32	0.32	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.32	0.32	16.67	16.67	-0.21	-0.21
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.30	0.30	13.33	13.33	-0.22	-0.22
San Jose St.	MWC	0.29	0.29	10.34	10.34	-0.23	-0.23
Idaho	BSky	0.27	0.27	68.97	68.97	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.27	0.27	14.29	14.29	-0.19	-0.19
Montana	BSky	0.24	0.24	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
Idaho St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.22	0.22	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.19	0.19	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
North Dakota	BSky	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
USC	P12	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	83.33	83.33	0.08	0.08
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01