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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:317.0
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:135
Current Record:5-26
Expected Record:5-26
Current Conf Record:3-17
Expected Conf Record:3-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-26317.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A78-47L0%0.0
11-17Northern Colorado (110.0)BSkyH82-84L0%0.0
11-20UC Santa Barbara (127.0)BWH84-92L0%0.0
11-21Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH80-76W100%0.0
11-24Texas A&M (29.0)SECA81-65L0%0.0
11-29Southern Utah (252.0)BSkyH82-88L0%0.0
12-2Cal Poly (305.0)BWA91-81L0%0.0
12-5UC Riverside (300.0)BWH70-59W100%0.0
12-9Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH71-78L0%0.0
12-16Belmont (81.0)OVCA79-62L0%0.0
12-19Weber St. (162.0)BSkyA72-67L0%0.0
12-28Santa Clara (264.0)WCCA72-65L0%0.0
12-30San Diego (143.0)WCCA74-66L0%0.0
1-4Gonzaga (21.0)WCCH59-89L0%0.0
1-6San Francisco (139.0)WCCH67-80L0%0.0
1-11BYU (67.0)WCCA83-63L0%0.0
1-13Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCH67-91L0%0.0
1-18Pacific (190.0)WCCA92-78L0%0.0
1-20San Francisco (139.0)WCCA80-73L0%0.0
1-25Loyola Marymount (258.0)WCCH71-70W100%0.0
1-27Santa Clara (264.0)WCCH59-73L0%0.0
2-1Portland (285.0)WCCA85-76L0%0.0
2-3Pacific (190.0)WCCH72-81L0%0.0
2-8San Diego (143.0)WCCH66-68L0%0.0
2-10Loyola Marymount (258.0)WCCA85-79L0%0.0
2-15BYU (67.0)WCCH70-75L0%0.0
2-17Gonzaga (21.0)WCCA81-67L0%0.0
2-22Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCA75-61L0%0.0
2-24Portland (285.0)WCCH75-64W100%0.0
3-2Santa Clara (264.0)WCCN69-85W100%0.0
3-3Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCN69-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.4826.4812.0612.06-20.10-20.10
Saint Mary'sWCC5.775.7783.3383.333.853.85
Santa ClaraWCC5.735.7330.7730.77-2.21-2.21
BYUWCC4.374.3768.7568.751.641.64
GonzagaWCC4.324.3287.5087.503.243.24
San FranciscoWCC4.314.3150.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC4.284.2832.1432.14-1.53-1.53
PacificWCC4.234.2337.9337.93-1.02-1.02
San DiegoWCC4.234.2353.5753.570.300.30
PortlandWCC4.204.2022.2222.22-2.33-2.33
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.931.9368.9768.970.730.73
Cal PolyBW1.881.8821.4321.43-1.08-1.08
UC RiversideBW1.881.8825.0025.00-0.94-0.94
Long Beach St.BW1.861.8640.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Weber St.BSky1.791.7959.2659.260.330.33
Northern ColoradoBSky1.731.7360.0060.000.350.35
Southern UtahBSky1.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
Oklahoma St.B121.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
Texas A&MSEC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
Oral RobertsSum1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
BelmontOVC1.611.6171.8871.880.710.71
UC DavisBW0.450.4566.6766.670.150.15
Cal St. FullertonBW0.430.4362.0762.070.100.10
Portland St.BSky0.330.3356.6756.670.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.320.3248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.320.3216.6716.67-0.21-0.21
Northern ArizonaBSky0.300.3013.3313.33-0.22-0.22
San Jose St.MWC0.290.2910.3410.34-0.23-0.23
IdahoBSky0.270.2768.9768.970.100.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.270.2714.2914.29-0.19-0.19
MontanaBSky0.240.2477.4277.420.130.13
Idaho St.BSky0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.220.2253.5753.570.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
NevadaMWC0.190.1979.4179.410.110.11
North DakotaBSky0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.1473.3373.330.060.06
USCP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
UNLVMWC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Oregon St.P120.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
CaliforniaP120.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
WashingtonP120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
DenverSum0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1012.5012.50-0.08-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
TexasB120.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01