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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:245.0
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:94
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:274
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22245.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Cal Poly (297.0)BWH77-68W100%0.0
11-15Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (216.0)MACN77-88L0%0.0
11-22Little Rock (243.0)SBN65-66W100%0.0
11-23St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N63-89L0%0.0
11-27Portland St. (268.0)BSkyH85-91L0%0.0
12-3Belmont (61.0)OVCH77-85L0%0.0
12-7Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA75-66L0%0.0
12-11USC (40.0)P12A93-67L0%0.0
12-20Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA90-64L0%0.0
12-22Montana (221.0)BSkyA71-70L0%0.0
12-29Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA92-62L0%0.0
12-31Portland (233.0)WCCA73-60L0%0.0
1-5Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCH71-70W100%0.0
1-7San Diego (205.0)WCCH68-76L0%0.0
1-12Pacific (223.0)WCCA79-74L0%0.0
1-14Santa Clara (126.0)WCCH61-75L0%0.0
1-19BYU (65.0)WCCA99-70L0%0.0
1-21Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA85-65L0%0.0
1-26Portland (233.0)WCCH78-60W100%0.0
1-28Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH49-96L0%0.0
2-2San Francisco (94.0)WCCA77-56L0%0.0
2-4Pacific (223.0)WCCH82-72W100%0.0
2-9BYU (65.0)WCCH99-83W100%0.0
2-11San Diego (205.0)WCCA60-65W100%0.0
2-16Santa Clara (126.0)WCCA106-55L0%0.0
2-18Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA82-61L0%0.0
2-23Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCH49-78L0%0.0
2-25San Francisco (94.0)WCCH65-76L0%0.0
3-3Pacific (223.0)WCCN84-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.3926.3923.0823.08-14.21-14.21
PacificWCC5.905.9027.5927.59-2.65-2.65
GonzagaWCC4.424.4296.7796.774.144.14
BYUWCC4.404.4067.7467.741.561.56
Saint Mary'sWCC4.394.3986.6786.673.223.22
PortlandWCC4.374.3727.5927.59-1.96-1.96
Santa ClaraWCC4.344.3446.6746.67-0.29-0.29
San FranciscoWCC4.324.3258.6258.620.740.74
San DiegoWCC4.314.3139.2939.29-0.92-0.92
Loyola MarymountWCC4.314.3148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Portland St.BSky1.911.9140.7440.74-0.35-0.35
MontanaBSky1.811.8148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Little RockSB1.801.8044.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Weber St.BSky1.801.8058.6258.620.310.31
USCP121.801.8071.8871.880.790.79
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.751.7560.0060.000.350.35
Long Beach St.BW1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
St. BonaventureA101.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
Central MichiganMAC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Cal PolyBW1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
BelmontOVC1.671.6776.9276.920.900.90
Cal St. FullertonBW0.330.3351.7251.720.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.320.3257.5857.580.050.05
UCLAP120.290.2987.8887.880.220.22
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.2825.8125.81-0.13-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.270.2737.9337.93-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.2418.5218.52-0.15-0.15
UC RiversideBW0.240.2422.2222.22-0.13-0.13
Montana St.BSky0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
UC DavisBW0.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.200.2067.8667.860.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.200.2012.9012.90-0.15-0.15
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
Idaho St.BSky0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
NevadaMWC0.190.1982.3582.350.120.12
San Jose St.MWC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
TroySB0.160.1658.8258.820.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
DaytonA100.160.1676.6776.670.080.08
MassachusettsA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.120.12
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Green BayHorz0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
ColoradoP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00