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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:185.5
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:267
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1048.00.01%
18-1160.00.01%
17-1271.40.14%
16-1384.30.43%
15-14102.71.42%
14-15117.23.54%
13-16133.87.16%
12-17151.612.88%
11-18169.718.04%
10-19189.219.90%
9-20209.516.52%
8-21227.811.47%
7-22244.35.76%
6-23261.12.08%
5-24276.60.49%
4-25293.80.12%
3-26295.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Cal Poly (281.6)BWH77-68W100%0.0
11-15Weber St. (175.7)BSkyH69-68W100%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (157.8)MACN77-88L0%0.0
11-22Little Rock (161.3)SBN65-66W100%0.0
11-23St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10N63-89L0%0.0
11-27Portland St. (293.2)BSkyH85-91L0%0.0
12-3Belmont (122.5)OVCH0-042%-2.6
12-7Long Beach St. (199.2)BWA0-035%-4.5
12-11USC (44.4)P12A0-06%-18.6
12-20Louisiana Lafayette (110.0)SBA0-023%-8.7
12-22Montana (251.5)BSkyA0-039%-3.4
12-29Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA0-02%-25.1
12-31Portland (108.8)WCCA0-020%-10.0
1-5Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCH0-049%-0.2
1-7San Diego (251.2)WCCH0-073%7.4
1-12Pacific (155.8)WCCA0-029%-6.5
1-14Santa Clara (214.8)WCCH0-057%2.2
1-19BYU (66.1)WCCA0-010%-15.4
1-21Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCA0-03%-22.4
1-26Portland (108.8)WCCH0-038%-3.8
1-28Gonzaga (10.2)WCCH0-06%-19.0
2-2San Francisco (170.5)WCCA0-034%-5.0
2-4Pacific (155.8)WCCH0-049%-0.3
2-9BYU (66.1)WCCH0-022%-9.2
2-11San Diego (251.2)WCCA0-054%1.2
2-16Santa Clara (214.8)WCCA0-037%-4.0
2-18Loyola Marymount (169.7)WCCA0-030%-6.4
2-23Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCH0-09%-16.3
2-25San Francisco (170.5)WCCH0-054%1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC29.7926.3939.2934.01-6.38-8.44
BYUWCC0.004.4571.4367.610.001.57
PortlandWCC0.004.4260.0056.180.000.55
Loyola MarymountWCC1.044.4133.3344.45-0.35-0.49
San FranciscoWCC0.004.4183.3350.330.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.004.4128.5726.84-0.00-2.04
GonzagaWCC0.004.39100.0090.690.003.57
Santa ClaraWCC0.004.3937.5035.06-0.00-1.31
PacificWCC0.004.3950.0048.170.00-0.16
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.38100.0088.670.003.39
Portland St.BSky8.331.990.0037.98-8.33-0.48
MontanaBSky0.001.8814.2946.99-0.00-0.11
Weber St.BSky8.331.8725.0057.05-4.170.26
USCP120.001.87100.0074.740.000.92
Little RockSB9.721.8475.0059.974.860.37
Long Beach St.BW0.001.790.0038.48-0.00-0.41
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.001.7866.6760.800.000.39
St. BonaventureA109.861.7860.0069.731.970.70
Central MichiganMAC9.861.7860.0054.801.970.17
Cal PolyBW8.331.7840.0037.26-1.67-0.45
BelmontOVC0.001.7240.0061.48-0.000.40
Cal St. FullertonBW1.040.3316.6730.02-0.69-0.13
UC IrvineBW0.000.2950.0054.690.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.270.0021.30-0.00-0.16
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2714.2928.15-0.00-0.12
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.270.0033.44-0.00-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.000.260.0033.43-0.00-0.09
UCLAP120.000.26100.0083.550.000.17
Montana St.BSky0.000.2550.0062.460.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2416.6743.29-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2216.6740.71-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2166.6751.460.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.2157.1464.940.000.06
UC DavisBW0.830.2157.1448.410.12-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2114.2929.81-0.00-0.08
San Jose St.MWC0.000.2040.0037.44-0.00-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0023.26-0.00-0.10
IdahoBSky0.830.1840.0050.88-0.170.00
TroySB0.000.1833.3332.23-0.00-0.06
NevadaMWC0.000.1875.0070.470.000.07
WashingtonP120.000.1757.1452.630.000.01
DaytonA100.000.1766.6772.440.000.08
ArizonaP120.000.1785.7170.990.000.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.1633.3353.29-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.690.1533.3348.71-0.23-0.00
FloridaSEC0.690.1587.5075.320.520.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1560.0058.950.000.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1428.5739.44-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1428.5723.76-0.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.000.1457.1447.220.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.1450.0036.820.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.1471.4359.850.000.03
Arizona St.P121.740.1257.1436.050.25-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1283.3370.360.000.05
BuffaloMAC0.830.1240.0050.91-0.170.00
StanfordP120.830.1275.0059.100.420.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0058.980.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1250.0050.940.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1285.7168.390.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1220.0032.60-0.00-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1275.0074.990.000.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1183.3358.080.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1185.7174.430.000.06
WyomingMWC0.000.1160.0048.590.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.1133.3326.75-0.00-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.690.0914.2928.66-0.50-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.690.0950.0050.290.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0942.8634.17-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0925.0024.28-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0983.3361.490.000.02
UtahP120.000.0975.0061.040.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.690.0942.8645.30-0.10-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.09100.0069.770.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0957.1448.860.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0920.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0960.0067.410.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0942.8637.25-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0983.3361.150.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0043.310.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0950.0059.670.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0960.0039.610.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0950.0053.560.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0925.0063.95-0.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0957.1442.660.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0971.4366.730.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.830.0614.2929.15-0.60-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.830.0360.0070.140.170.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
ElonCAA0.690.0383.3358.030.460.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
UTSACUSA0.690.0328.5728.46-0.30-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.690.0340.0055.44-0.140.00
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.690.0328.5750.51-0.300.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.690.0340.0043.86-0.14-0.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00