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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:127
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:214
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16159.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UC Riverside (319.0)BWA66-69W100%0.0
11-16Central Michigan (294.0)MACA71-88W100%0.0
11-20San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH77-83L0%0.0
11-23Utah Valley (144.0)WACH58-53W100%0.0
11-28Green Bay (58.0)HorzN97-89L0%0.0
11-29Denver (139.0)SumN56-68W100%0.0
11-30Indiana St. (71.0)MVCN70-73L0%0.0
12-4Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH64-78L0%0.0
12-7UC Irvine (111.0)BWA69-75W100%0.0
12-15Washington St. (224.0)P12A78-61L0%0.0
12-21Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH76-64W100%0.0
12-28San Diego (156.0)WCCH75-64W100%0.0
12-30BYU (31.0)WCCH80-74W100%0.0
1-2Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA61-70W100%0.0
1-4San Francisco (68.0)WCCA76-66L0%0.0
1-9BYU (31.0)WCCA84-72L0%0.0
1-11San Diego (156.0)WCCA65-69W100%0.0
1-16Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH53-70L0%0.0
1-18Portland (178.0)WCCH76-65W100%0.0
1-23Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA80-74L0%0.0
1-25Pacific (133.0)WCCA76-66L0%0.0
2-1Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH80-69W100%0.0
2-6Pacific (133.0)WCCH80-69W100%0.0
2-8Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH67-69L0%0.0
2-13Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA83-68L0%0.0
2-15Portland (178.0)WCCA74-62L0%0.0
2-20Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA69-72W100%0.0
2-27San Francisco (68.0)WCCH53-77L0%0.0
3-1Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH78-86L0%0.0
3-8Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCN80-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC26.4126.4146.5846.58-1.81-1.81
Saint Mary'sWCC5.915.9162.0762.071.431.43
GonzagaWCC4.464.4680.6580.652.732.73
BYUWCC4.414.4167.7467.741.561.56
Santa ClaraWCC4.414.4137.9337.93-1.06-1.06
Loyola MarymountWCC4.384.3841.3841.38-0.75-0.75
San FranciscoWCC4.354.3560.7160.710.930.93
PortlandWCC4.334.3348.2848.28-0.15-0.15
PacificWCC4.324.3248.1548.15-0.16-0.16
San DiegoWCC4.304.3050.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW1.891.8967.7467.740.670.67
Cal St. FullertonBW1.861.8633.3333.33-0.62-0.62
UC RiversideBW1.851.8528.5728.57-0.79-0.79
San Jose St.MWC1.801.8014.2914.29-1.29-1.29
Washington St.P121.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
DenverSum1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
Central MichiganMAC1.671.6728.5728.57-0.71-0.71
Green BayHorz1.671.6776.9276.920.900.90
Houston BaptistSlnd1.671.6715.3815.38-1.15-1.15
Indiana St.MVC1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
Utah ValleyWAC1.671.6764.2964.290.480.48
Cal PolyBW0.350.3536.6736.67-0.09-0.09
OregonP120.270.2771.8871.880.120.12
UC DavisBW0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.240.2478.5778.570.140.14
HawaiiBW0.240.2462.0762.070.060.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
Utah St.MWC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
BradleyMVC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
StanfordP120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
UICHorz0.150.1513.7913.79-0.11-0.11
South DakotaSum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1487.1087.100.110.11
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.140.143.573.57-0.13-0.13
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
AmericanPat0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
UNLVMWC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01