Pepperdine

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	250.7
Current RPI:	239
Expected SOS:	182
Current SOS:	139
Current Record:	7-15
Expected Record:	9-18
Current Conf Record:	2-10
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-6
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	260
Expected OOC SOS:	329

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-15	201.0	0.21%
11-16	217.3	7.38%
10-17	235.8	27.75%
9-18	254.0	38.64%
8-19	269.6	21.75%
7-20	281.7	4.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Arizona St. (241.2)	P12	A	60-66	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	A	79-70	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	H	57-67	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	A	64-70	W	100%	0.0
11-28	UCLA (109.2)	P12	A	62-39	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	H	73-67	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Northern Arizona (328.5)	BSky	A	40-49	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	H	70-73	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Montana St. (261.8)	BSky	H	59-36	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Washington St. (164.6)	P12	N	67-56	L	0%	0.0
12-29	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	H	77-61	W	100%	0.0
12-31	St. Mary's (16.3)	WCC	H	45-74	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	A	73-45	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Portland (215.5)	WCC	A	53-43	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	H	58-68	L	0%	0.0
1-14	San Francisco (152.1)	WCC	A	78-63	L	0%	0.0
1-19	St. Mary's (16.3)	WCC	A	61-47	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	H	64-77	L	0%	0.0
1-26	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	A	65-56	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	H	74-62	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Loyola Marymount (107.0)	WCC	A	67-57	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	H	60-72	L	0%	0.0
2-9	San Diego (210.6)	WCC	H	0-0		62%	3.5
2-11	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	A	0-0		3%	-20.6
2-16	Seattle (288.1)	ind	A	0-0		39%	-3.2
2-18	Portland (215.5)	WCC	H	0-0		67%	4.9
2-23	Santa Clara (271.9)	WCC	A	0-0		42%	-2.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pepperdine	WCC	26.56	26.43	31.73	34.15	-9.70	-8.38
San Francisco	WCC	5.26	4.70	57.14	54.06	0.75	0.38
Gonzaga	WCC	5.21	4.70	80.00	80.12	3.13	2.83
Loyola Marymount	WCC	5.31	4.70	55.00	54.51	0.53	0.42
Santa Clara	WCC	3.05	4.69	30.00	26.09	-1.22	-2.24
Brigham Young	WCC	3.15	4.67	73.91	74.34	1.51	2.27
Portland	WCC	3.14	4.66	18.18	18.26	-2.00	-2.96
San Diego	WCC	3.04	4.66	30.00	31.02	-1.21	-1.77
St. Mary's	WCC	5.16	4.63	90.00	86.80	4.13	3.41
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.68	2.18	14.29	16.76	-1.91	-1.45
Washington St.	P12	2.58	2.17	47.62	46.31	-0.12	-0.16
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.50	2.06	45.45	45.87	-0.23	-0.17
Arizona St.	P12	2.48	2.05	31.82	32.52	-0.90	-0.72
UCLA	P12	2.48	2.04	52.38	55.30	0.12	0.22
Montana St.	BSky	2.42	2.02	47.37	43.43	-0.13	-0.27
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.48	2.02	16.67	19.36	-1.65	-1.24
Seattle	ind	0.16	1.95	23.53	32.06	-0.08	-0.70
Hawaii	WAC	2.44	1.95	60.00	55.09	0.49	0.20
Central Michigan	MAC	2.27	1.85	25.00	31.85	-1.14	-0.67
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.27	1.85	60.00	62.92	0.45	0.48
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.58	0.40	40.91	44.03	-0.11	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.31	0.37	70.00	73.28	0.12	0.17
San Jose St.	WAC	0.42	0.34	27.27	26.95	-0.19	-0.16
Pacific	BW	0.42	0.34	35.00	37.47	-0.13	-0.09
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.32	0.34	55.56	58.01	0.04	0.05
Washington	P12	0.26	0.33	69.57	66.54	0.10	0.11
Utah	P12	0.31	0.29	18.18	15.01	-0.19	-0.20
Arizona	P12	0.31	0.29	66.67	68.55	0.10	0.11
Idaho St.	BSky	0.37	0.27	33.33	33.88	-0.12	-0.09
Weber St.	BSky	0.26	0.27	80.00	76.84	0.16	0.14
Nevada	WAC	0.20	0.26	80.95	76.42	0.12	0.14
Portland St.	BSky	0.27	0.25	42.86	45.80	-0.04	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.21	0.25	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.22	0.24	35.00	35.26	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.31	0.23	69.57	68.90	0.12	0.09
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.23	69.57	68.29	0.08	0.08
Southern California	P12	0.21	0.22	25.00	25.13	-0.11	-0.11
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.21	0.00	5.37	-0.17	-0.19
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.21	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.26	0.21	30.00	33.20	-0.10	-0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.26	0.21	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.20	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.09
Fresno St.	WAC	0.16	0.20	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.19	69.57	64.53	0.08	0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.18	65.00	66.70	0.05	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.22	0.17	42.86	39.66	-0.03	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.21	0.17	81.82	81.03	0.13	0.10
Oregon St.	P12	0.20	0.16	63.64	63.16	0.06	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.20	0.16	66.67	62.65	0.07	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.14	30.00	31.54	-0.06	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.13	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.13	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.20	0.13	25.00	37.58	-0.10	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.13	100.00	94.55	0.10	0.12
St. Louis	A10	0.15	0.13	77.27	77.67	0.08	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.20	0.13	61.90	63.52	0.05	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.13	90.91	83.85	0.12	0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.13	40.91	42.96	-0.03	-0.02
California	P12	0.15	0.12	75.00	74.61	0.08	0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.10	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.10	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.15	0.10	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.10	33.33	37.25	-0.05	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.16	0.10	26.32	29.79	-0.08	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.10	14.29	17.17	-0.11	-0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.10	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.07	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.10	83.33	84.76	0.10	0.07
Xavier	A10	0.16	0.10	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.10	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.16	0.10	80.77	80.75	0.10	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.10	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.08	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.08	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.07	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.07	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.07	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.07	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.07	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.07	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.07	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.07	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.07	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.07	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.07	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.10	0.07	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.07	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.07	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.07	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.07	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.07	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.07	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.06
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.07	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.07	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.07	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.07	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.07	65.22	63.61	0.00	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.04	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.04	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00