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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Pepperdine

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:134.6
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:342
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:143
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-533.90.07%
22-647.10.25%
21-758.21.22%
20-872.23.50%
19-987.28.39%
18-10103.714.20%
17-11121.119.26%
16-12138.920.04%
15-13158.315.80%
14-14178.710.09%
13-15200.44.82%
12-16219.91.67%
11-17240.90.60%
10-18259.90.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pepperdine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Fresno St. (258.3)MWCH89-74W100%0.0
11-19San Jose St. (327.7)MWCA44-63W100%0.0
11-24Iowa (50.4)B10A72-61L0%0.0
12-4Cal St. Northridge (292.7)BWH66-56W100%0.0
12-6Cal St. Fullerton (264.4)BWA62-74W100%0.0
12-13Arizona St. (98.6)P12A81-74L0%0.0
12-15South Alabama (256.5)SBH78-68W100%0.0
12-17Howard (275.2)MEACH53-45W100%0.0
12-20Richmond (87.3)A10N0-045%-1.5
12-27IUPUI (291.5)SumH0-092%16.9
12-29Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCA0-065%4.5
1-1Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCH0-064%4.1
1-3Pacific (203.2)WCCH0-082%10.6
1-8BYU (56.2)WCCA0-020%-10.0
1-10San Diego (92.4)WCCA0-027%-7.3
1-15Gonzaga (11.7)WCCH0-016%-11.9
1-17Portland (183.7)WCCH0-077%8.5
1-22San Francisco (123.6)WCCA0-029%-6.5
1-24Santa Clara (197.4)WCCA0-052%0.7
1-29Pacific (203.2)WCCA0-056%1.9
1-31Saint Mary's (115.0)WCCA0-035%-4.7
2-5BYU (56.2)WCCH0-046%-1.2
2-7San Diego (92.4)WCCH0-055%1.4
2-12Portland (183.7)WCCA0-049%-0.2
2-14Gonzaga (11.7)WCCA0-04%-20.6
2-19Santa Clara (197.4)WCCH0-079%9.5
2-21San Francisco (123.6)WCCH0-058%2.3
2-28Loyola Marymount (257.8)WCCH0-087%13.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pepperdine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pepperdine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pepperdine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PepperdineWCC27.6926.4481.2558.9017.304.71
Santa ClaraWCC0.634.6450.0041.390.00-0.80
PortlandWCC0.354.6166.6749.280.12-0.07
PacificWCC0.004.6150.0038.750.00-1.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.314.6025.0023.39-0.16-2.45
GonzagaWCC0.004.5990.0090.990.003.76
BYUWCC0.004.5866.6767.310.001.59
San DiegoWCC0.004.5854.5557.150.000.66
San FranciscoWCC0.004.5850.0053.640.000.33
Saint Mary'sWCC0.004.5871.4357.570.000.69
San Jose St.MWC6.532.010.008.13-6.53-1.68
Cal St. FullertonBW6.601.9440.0040.27-1.32-0.38
Fresno St.MWC6.251.9233.3330.87-2.08-0.73
RichmondA100.831.8855.5657.150.090.27
IUPUISum0.311.8820.0026.98-0.19-0.86
South AlabamaSB6.251.880.0037.98-6.25-0.45
HowardMEAC6.251.8833.3345.53-2.08-0.17
Arizona St.P126.251.8555.5652.280.690.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.251.8522.2229.17-3.47-0.77
IowaB106.251.7970.0061.342.500.41
Cal PolyBW0.310.4042.8638.75-0.04-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.310.3537.5046.78-0.08-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.3275.0068.680.000.12
Utah St.MWC0.000.2555.5650.970.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.310.2570.0072.830.120.11
HawaiiBW0.000.2466.6754.830.000.02
NevadaMWC0.280.2211.1125.02-0.22-0.11
Western MichiganMAC0.350.2262.5054.980.090.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.19100.0078.050.000.11
UC RiversideBW0.000.1942.8643.10-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.310.1975.0050.750.160.00
StanfordP120.000.1975.0057.570.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.1840.0028.86-0.00-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1840.0050.07-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1837.5064.43-0.000.05
UCLAP120.280.1872.7357.280.130.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.1640.0050.78-0.060.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.1666.6757.860.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.310.1650.0041.830.00-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.1542.8642.32-0.04-0.02
UC DavisBW0.350.1585.7161.020.250.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.310.1542.8638.26-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.310.15100.0080.590.310.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1344.4447.53-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.350.13100.0071.820.350.06
USCP120.280.1360.0036.120.06-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1337.5031.95-0.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1318.1835.99-0.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.000.1377.7873.370.000.06
New MexicoMWC0.280.1270.0058.600.110.02
DenverSum0.000.1250.0054.230.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1287.5065.040.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.310.1277.7871.110.170.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1277.7855.460.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1272.7363.730.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.1266.6758.240.000.02
UtahP120.000.1277.7879.480.000.07
Air ForceMWC0.000.0957.1461.670.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0920.0019.99-0.00-0.06
Montana St.BSky0.310.0922.2228.69-0.17-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0012.36-0.00-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.350.0927.2737.85-0.16-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0920.0029.81-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.280.0940.0050.32-0.060.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0972.7373.150.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5073.190.000.04
SeattleWAC0.660.0937.5046.50-0.16-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8655.64-0.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0962.5071.290.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0980.0070.960.000.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0960.0055.630.000.01
South DakotaSum0.310.0927.2738.97-0.14-0.02
CaliforniaP120.310.0990.0066.690.250.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.280.0955.5656.400.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0955.5640.500.00-0.02
OregonP120.310.0966.6758.060.100.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0714.2933.32-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0737.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0787.5085.320.000.05
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.560.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.790.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0052.800.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.620.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.830.0690.0075.520.670.03
NJITind0.000.0636.3640.98-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.0644.4470.08-0.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6777.030.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.730.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.09-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.17-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.310.0620.0034.08-0.19-0.02
DuquesneA100.310.0628.5731.23-0.13-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.310.0650.0055.810.000.01
UMBCAE0.600.0610.0020.91-0.48-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.310.0657.1456.750.040.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.68-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.520.0644.4448.88-0.06-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.510.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.900.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.75-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.59-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1144.04-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.020.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
MarylandB100.310.0690.9167.660.260.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.730.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.780.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.620.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0065.410.000.02
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.390.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.310.030.0023.15-0.31-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.310.0310.0030.45-0.25-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.310.0337.5038.60-0.08-0.01
FIUCUSA0.280.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
MaristMAAC0.310.0310.0018.61-0.25-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.520.0344.4445.64-0.06-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.520.0342.8627.08-0.07-0.01
Texas TechB120.310.0388.8955.910.240.00
USC UpstateASun0.280.0360.0064.620.060.01
Wright St.Horz0.280.0360.0057.600.060.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.310.0333.3331.58-0.10-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.310.0366.6754.660.100.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.280.030.0028.26-0.28-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.310.030.0011.40-0.31-0.02
ColgatePat0.310.0320.0043.08-0.19-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
Iowa St.B120.280.0388.8963.800.220.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.960.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0337.5047.71-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.280.0320.0026.57-0.17-0.01
MarquetteBE0.310.0355.5647.870.03-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0370.0071.630.110.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0344.4456.91-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.280.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.850.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.280.0366.6757.800.090.00
TexasB120.280.0390.0081.860.230.02
Texas A&MSEC0.310.0377.7865.390.170.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.000.00-0.01