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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:26.7
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:5
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-75.00.09%
23-88.41.11%
22-912.35.33%
21-1016.715.16%
20-1121.325.97%
19-1227.427.45%
18-1337.817.71%
17-1450.26.42%
16-1561.10.75%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington (62.4)P12N71-77L0%0.0
11-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (117.2)SlndH67-56W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M (21.6)SECN73-84L0%0.0
11-26Washington (62.4)P12N70-82W100%0.0
11-27Michigan (47.1)B10N78-72L0%0.0
12-1UT Arlington (101.9)SBH80-73W100%0.0
12-4Samford (254.6)SCH59-49W100%0.0
12-8UTSA (341.8)CUSAH116-50W100%0.0
12-12North Carolina (10.8)ACCH84-82W100%0.0
12-15Appalachian St. (260.1)SBH67-55W100%0.0
12-19Stanford (85.9)P12A73-75W100%0.0
12-29Connecticut (37.7)AmerH66-71L0%0.0
1-2Texas Tech (65.9)B12A82-74L0%0.0
1-5Kansas St. (59.9)B12H60-57W100%0.0
1-9TCU (174.7)B12A58-57L0%0.0
1-12Iowa St. (17.3)B12H94-91W100%0.0
1-16Oklahoma St. (139.1)B12H74-69W100%0.0
1-20West Virginia (8.7)B12A49-56W100%0.0
1-23Kansas (6.0)B12A76-67L0%0.0
1-26TCU (174.7)B12H71-54W100%0.0
1-30Vanderbilt (53.3)SECH72-58W100%0.0
2-1Baylor (30.1)B12A59-67W100%0.0
2-6Texas Tech (65.9)B12H69-59W100%0.0
2-8Oklahoma (3.9)B12A0-021%-8.8
2-13Iowa St. (17.3)B12A0-032%-5.1
2-16West Virginia (8.7)B12H0-039%-2.9
2-20Baylor (30.1)B12H0-062%3.3
2-22Kansas St. (59.9)B12A0-046%-1.0
2-27Oklahoma (3.9)B12H0-042%-2.1
2-29Kansas (6.0)B12H0-043%-2.0
3-4Oklahoma St. (139.1)B12A0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.4026.3566.6759.558.805.03
TCUB124.834.1342.8636.34-0.69-1.13
Kansas St.B122.664.1263.6460.650.720.88
BaylorB122.754.1276.1969.891.441.64
Iowa St.B122.664.1077.2772.551.451.85
KansasB122.754.0980.9577.491.702.25
Oklahoma St.B122.664.0750.0045.920.00-0.33
West VirginiaB122.664.0786.3682.951.932.68
OklahomaB120.584.0786.3683.080.422.69
Texas TechB124.734.0760.0053.350.950.27
WashingtonP124.443.3166.6761.861.480.78
Texas A&MSEC2.421.8577.2777.321.321.01
VanderbiltSEC2.321.7759.0962.000.420.43
Appalachian St.SB2.271.6927.2730.18-1.03-0.67
North CarolinaACC2.271.6986.3681.321.651.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.271.6778.9574.151.310.81
StanfordP122.171.6752.6348.330.11-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB2.221.6670.0072.970.890.77
UTSACUSA2.231.6414.2914.11-1.59-1.18
ConnecticutAmer2.221.6472.7371.571.010.71
MichiganB102.221.6468.1865.060.810.49
SamfordSC2.171.6140.9142.79-0.40-0.23
UtahP120.300.2269.5767.480.120.08
ColoradoP120.250.2269.5765.330.100.07
UCLAP120.290.2256.5253.240.040.01
Arizona St.P120.290.1954.1751.660.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.1936.3632.00-0.03-0.07
FloridaSEC0.190.1865.2266.090.060.06
ArizonaP120.240.1779.1778.330.140.09
OregonP120.100.1782.6179.210.070.10
Oregon St.P120.100.1761.9056.420.020.02
Texas St.SB0.150.1638.8938.51-0.03-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.290.1652.1755.930.010.02
SMUAmer0.200.1690.9186.130.160.12
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.1690.4886.880.160.12
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1642.8639.19-0.02-0.03
MinnesotaB100.190.1626.0927.82-0.09-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1620.8323.63-0.11-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1661.9056.690.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1642.8646.34-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1470.5975.550.060.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1452.6350.220.010.00
FurmanSC0.240.1452.1753.310.010.01
USCP120.190.1478.2673.060.110.06
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1334.7840.92-0.06-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.150.1333.3334.19-0.05-0.04
TroySB0.150.1323.8126.67-0.08-0.06
MemphisAmer0.150.1360.8760.770.030.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1373.9171.550.050.06
LSUSEC0.090.1365.2260.270.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1340.9140.65-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.090.1340.9136.61-0.02-0.03
MissouriSEC0.090.1334.7830.36-0.03-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.190.1347.8346.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.140.1354.1749.270.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1137.5040.52-0.05-0.02
CaliforniaP120.110.1165.2262.880.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.1156.2556.100.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1145.0049.39-0.02-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1121.0527.82-0.06-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.1131.5831.80-0.03-0.04
WisconsinB100.050.1160.8755.840.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.1186.3685.030.070.08
WoffordSC0.190.1140.9145.38-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.1135.0038.52-0.01-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1184.2181.670.070.07
MontanaBSky0.140.1157.8962.290.020.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.1115.0027.26-0.14-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1140.0039.00-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.150.1157.8956.100.020.01
IowaB100.090.1182.6180.580.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1157.8961.750.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.119.0917.09-0.12-0.07
RichmondA100.150.1154.5554.490.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1172.7372.030.040.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1177.2776.860.110.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1147.8350.15-0.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.190.1178.2676.810.110.06
MarylandB100.140.1187.5083.690.110.07
CincinnatiAmer0.090.1070.8370.840.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.1015.0022.36-0.07-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.090.1045.4551.35-0.010.00
MississippiSEC0.090.1065.2259.020.030.02
SyracuseACC0.140.1066.6762.560.050.03
TulaneAmer0.190.1033.3332.34-0.06-0.04
TulsaAmer0.090.1065.2261.450.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.150.0830.0034.56-0.06-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0817.6529.24-0.04-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0818.7526.45-0.06-0.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0886.9686.370.040.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0871.4368.710.040.03
North TexasCUSA0.150.0833.3332.99-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0852.1751.940.000.00
MercerSC0.140.0872.7370.750.060.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0828.5731.89-0.04-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0862.5059.780.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0845.4554.11-0.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.0883.3383.020.060.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0821.7423.40-0.05-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.0850.0051.170.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0858.3354.160.020.01
PurdueB100.090.0879.1776.550.060.04
BradleyMVC0.150.0812.5012.85-0.11-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.089.5213.52-0.11-0.06
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.11-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0049.090.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0833.3335.09-0.03-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0854.1755.080.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0882.6178.050.030.04
TempleAmer0.090.0863.6459.840.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0627.7834.50-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.100.0652.1750.420.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.440.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.19-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.98-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.31-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.7917.42-0.03-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.36-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.810.010.00
RiceCUSA0.100.0528.5729.72-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0560.8760.240.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0582.6177.740.060.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0535.0032.27-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.100.0555.0057.480.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0539.1338.34-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0547.6252.67-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.7837.15-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0540.0045.51-0.02-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0565.2268.610.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0528.5726.96-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0568.0067.970.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0539.1341.12-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0538.8937.66-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0550.0046.740.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0535.0035.98-0.01-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0547.6244.99-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0572.7371.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0542.8650.41-0.010.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0566.6763.420.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0559.0953.030.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0531.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0530.4326.50-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.054.357.73-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.090.0545.4546.10-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0552.3850.410.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0566.6765.210.020.02
DukeACC0.000.0573.9170.040.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0552.0050.250.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.7834.15-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0569.5766.510.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0554.1750.930.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0570.8369.500.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0522.7324.97-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0530.4335.11-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0539.1337.74-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0547.3749.97-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0563.6462.140.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0556.5256.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3633.47-0.01-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0586.3679.150.070.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0550.0053.300.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0541.6741.24-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0523.8127.69-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0565.2259.750.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0552.3845.700.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0543.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.79-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.45-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0331.5831.96-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.04-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.73-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.390.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.58-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.930.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.36-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.780.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.420.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.30-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.37-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.290.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.380.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.54-0.03-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.380.030.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4842.01-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.130.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0354.1752.340.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.590.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.470.010.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0365.2264.220.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0334.7834.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8276.740.000.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0355.0053.180.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0376.1968.220.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.07-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.66-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0326.0923.72-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0331.8232.67-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.160.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.48-0.02-0.01