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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:156.0
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:11-22
Expected Record:11-22
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:52



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-22156.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH78-73W100%0.0
11-14Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH80-59W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH85-52W100%0.0
11-21Northwestern (50.0)B10N77-58L0%0.0
11-22Colorado (99.0)P12N54-68L0%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (45.0)SBH61-72L0%0.0
12-2Alabama (78.0)SECH77-68W100%0.0
12-6Michigan (25.0)B10A53-50L0%0.0
12-10Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH71-65W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas (28.0)SECN74-77L0%0.0
12-21UAB (201.0)CUSAH96-60W100%0.0
12-27Kent St. (142.0)MACH58-63L0%0.0
12-30Kansas St. (57.0)B12A65-62L0%0.0
1-4Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H82-79W100%0.0
1-7Iowa St. (21.0)B12A79-70L0%0.0
1-11TCU (67.0)B12H61-64L0%0.0
1-14West Virginia (24.0)B12H72-74L0%0.0
1-17Baylor (11.0)B12A74-64L0%0.0
1-21Kansas (4.0)B12A79-67L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma (168.0)B12H84-83W100%0.0
1-28Georgia (52.0)SECA59-57L0%0.0
2-1Texas Tech (124.0)B12H62-58W100%0.0
2-4TCU (67.0)B12A78-63L0%0.0
2-7Iowa St. (21.0)B12H67-65W100%0.0
2-11Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A84-71L0%0.0
2-14Oklahoma (168.0)B12A70-66L0%0.0
2-18Kansas St. (57.0)B12H61-64L0%0.0
2-20West Virginia (24.0)B12A77-62L0%0.0
2-25Kansas (4.0)B12H67-77L0%0.0
3-1Texas Tech (124.0)B12A67-57L0%0.0
3-4Baylor (11.0)B12H64-75L0%0.0
3-8Texas Tech (124.0)B12N52-61W100%0.0
3-9West Virginia (24.0)B12N63-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.3926.3925.5525.55-12.90-12.90
West VirginiaB125.445.4474.1974.192.632.63
Texas TechB125.375.3758.6258.620.930.93
Iowa St.B124.044.0470.9770.971.691.69
TCUB124.024.0251.6151.610.130.13
Kansas St.B123.993.9958.0658.060.640.64
KansasB123.993.9986.6786.672.932.93
Oklahoma St.B123.943.9462.0762.070.950.95
BaylorB123.923.9275.8675.862.032.03
OklahomaB123.923.9234.4834.48-1.22-1.22
ArkansasSEC1.641.6472.7372.730.740.74
GeorgiaSEC1.631.6354.8454.840.160.16
Louisiana MonroeSB1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
UT ArlingtonSB1.591.5973.3373.330.740.74
Incarnate WordSlnd1.591.5933.3333.33-0.53-0.53
AlabamaSEC1.581.5859.3859.380.300.30
ColoradoP121.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
Long Beach St.BW1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
UABCUSA1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
NorthwesternB101.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
MichiganB101.541.5467.6567.650.540.54
Kent St.MAC1.521.5260.6160.610.320.32
AuburnSEC0.310.3156.2556.250.040.04
KentuckySEC0.210.2185.2985.290.150.15
LSUSEC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
IllinoisB100.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
FloridaSEC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
WashingtonP120.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
MarylandB100.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
WisconsinB100.160.1673.5373.530.070.07
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
RiceCUSA0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
OregonP120.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
North TexasCUSA0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
SeattleWAC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
StanfordP120.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VMISC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01