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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:36.0
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:43
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:59
Expected OOC SOS:169



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1036.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Mercer (81.0)ASunH76-73W100%0.0
11-12South Alabama (280.0)SBH84-77W100%0.0
11-15Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH72-62W100%0.0
11-18Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH89-61W100%0.0
11-25BYU (31.0)WCCN86-82L0%0.0
11-26DePaul (154.0)BEN59-77W100%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (199.0)SBH72-69W100%0.0
12-2Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH70-64W100%0.0
12-7Temple (175.0)AmerA80-81W100%0.0
12-14Texas St. (307.0)SBH85-53W100%0.0
12-18North Carolina (25.0)ACCA83-86W100%0.0
12-21Michigan St. (18.0)B10H78-92L0%0.0
12-30Rice (299.0)CUSAH66-44W100%0.0
1-4Oklahoma (26.0)B12H85-88L0%0.0
1-8Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A87-74L0%0.0
1-11Texas Tech (121.0)B12H67-64W100%0.0
1-13West Virginia (88.0)B12A69-80W100%0.0
1-18Iowa St. (7.0)B12H86-76W100%0.0
1-21Kansas St. (51.0)B12H67-64W100%0.0
1-25Baylor (30.0)B12A60-74W100%0.0
2-1Kansas (3.0)B12H81-69W100%0.0
2-4TCU (212.0)B12A54-59W100%0.0
2-8Kansas St. (51.0)B12A74-57L0%0.0
2-11Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H87-68W100%0.0
2-15West Virginia (88.0)B12H88-71W100%0.0
2-18Iowa St. (7.0)B12A85-76L0%0.0
2-22Kansas (3.0)B12A85-54L0%0.0
2-26Baylor (30.0)B12H74-69W100%0.0
3-1Oklahoma (26.0)B12A77-65L0%0.0
3-5TCU (212.0)B12H66-54W100%0.0
3-8Texas Tech (121.0)B12A59-53L0%0.0
3-13West Virginia (88.0)B12N66-49W100%0.0
3-14Baylor (30.0)B12N69-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.4126.4168.8968.899.989.98
BaylorB125.505.5070.0070.002.202.20
West VirginiaB125.355.3558.6258.620.920.92
Iowa St.B124.074.0780.6580.652.492.49
OklahomaB124.024.0270.0070.001.611.61
Oklahoma St.B123.983.9864.5264.521.151.15
KansasB123.973.9774.1974.191.921.92
Texas TechB123.953.9543.3343.33-0.53-0.53
TCUB123.943.9425.9325.93-1.90-1.90
Kansas St.B123.933.9363.3363.331.051.05
UT ArlingtonSB1.701.7044.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Houston BaptistSlnd1.691.6915.3815.38-1.17-1.17
South AlabamaSB1.671.6729.6329.63-0.68-0.68
Texas St.SB1.651.6521.4321.43-0.94-0.94
Michigan St.B101.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
RiceCUSA1.571.5718.5218.52-0.99-0.99
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.571.5796.4396.431.461.46
MercerASun1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
BYUWCC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
DePaulBE1.541.5437.5037.50-0.39-0.39
North CarolinaACC1.541.5474.1974.190.740.74
TempleAmer1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
VanderbiltSEC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.2564.5264.520.070.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.230.2334.6234.62-0.07-0.07
GonzagaWCC0.210.2181.8281.820.140.14
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.2024.0024.00-0.11-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.200.2053.5753.570.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
MichiganB100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
MemphisAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
WisconsinB100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IllinoisB100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01