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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:51.0
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:20
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1451.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northwestern St. (342.0)SlndH105-59W100%0.0
11-14New Hampshire (312.0)AEH78-60W100%0.0
11-18Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH80-57W100%0.0
11-23Butler (41.0)BEN61-48W100%0.0
11-24Duke (7.0)ACCN78-85L0%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (21.0)WCCN76-71L0%0.0
11-29Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH82-58W100%0.0
12-5VCU (135.0)A10A67-71W100%0.0
12-12Michigan (12.0)B10H52-59L0%0.0
12-16Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAH75-60W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCH47-46W100%0.0
12-22Alabama (42.0)SECA50-66W100%0.0
12-29Kansas (5.0)B12H86-92L0%0.0
1-1Iowa St. (144.0)B12A70-74W100%0.0
1-6Baylor (68.0)B12A69-60L0%0.0
1-10TCU (26.0)B12H99-98W100%0.0
1-13Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A65-64L0%0.0
1-17Texas Tech (23.0)B12H67-58W100%0.0
1-20West Virginia (27.0)B12A86-51L0%0.0
1-22Iowa St. (144.0)B12H73-57W100%0.0
1-27Mississippi (141.0)SECH85-72W100%0.0
1-31Texas Tech (23.0)B12A73-71L0%0.0
2-3Oklahoma (49.0)B12H79-74W100%0.0
2-7Kansas St. (53.0)B12H64-67L0%0.0
2-10TCU (26.0)B12A87-71L0%0.0
2-12Baylor (68.0)B12H73-74L0%0.0
2-17Oklahoma (49.0)B12A66-77W100%0.0
2-21Kansas St. (53.0)B12A58-48L0%0.0
2-24Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12H65-64W100%0.0
2-26Kansas (5.0)B12A80-70L0%0.0
3-3West Virginia (27.0)B12H87-79W100%0.0
3-7Iowa St. (144.0)B12N68-64W100%0.0
3-8Texas Tech (23.0)B12N73-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.4026.4054.6154.612.432.43
Texas TechB125.395.3973.3373.332.512.51
Iowa St.B125.345.3446.4346.43-0.38-0.38
KansasB124.044.0478.1278.122.272.27
West VirginiaB124.044.0471.8871.881.771.77
Oklahoma St.B123.973.9758.0658.060.640.64
OklahomaB123.973.9762.0762.070.960.96
Kansas St.B123.973.9764.5264.521.151.15
TCUB123.923.9266.6766.671.311.31
BaylorB123.913.9151.7251.720.130.13
AlabamaSEC1.641.6457.5857.580.250.25
Tennessee St.OVC1.591.5948.1548.15-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun1.561.5671.4371.430.670.67
Northwestern St.Slnd1.561.568.338.33-1.30-1.30
MichiganB101.541.5478.7978.790.890.89
Louisiana TechCUSA1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC1.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
VCUA101.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
ButlerBE1.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
DukeACC1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
Florida A&MMEAC1.521.5225.0025.00-0.76-0.76
GonzagaWCC1.521.5287.8887.881.151.15
New HampshireAE1.521.5228.5728.57-0.65-0.65
Texas A&MSEC0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
FloridaSEC0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
MissouriSEC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
TulsaAmer0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
KentuckySEC0.160.1670.5970.590.060.06
BelmontOVC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1544.4444.44-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
PurdueB100.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
AmericanPat0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
AuburnSEC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
FordhamA100.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1180.0080.000.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
North TexasCUSA0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.090.0984.8584.850.070.07
PortlandWCC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
Ohio St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
BYUWCC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.049.689.68-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
PacificWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0484.8584.850.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
ToledoMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
VMISC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00