Texas

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	116.0
Current RPI:	116
Expected SOS:	65
Current SOS:	65
Current Record:	16-16
Expected Record:	16-16
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	121
Expected OOC SOS:	161

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-16	116.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	55-53	W	100%
11-12	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	69-46	W	100%
11-20	Southern California (118.0)	P12	N	59-53	L	0%
11-21	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	N	69-55	W	100%
11-27	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	65-37	W	100%
12-1	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	70-54	W	100%
12-4	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	N	64-41	L	0%
12-8	UCLA (26.0)	P12	N	63-65	L	0%
12-15	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	75-63	W	100%
12-19	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	H	85-67	W	100%
12-22	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	67-56	L	0%
12-29	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	H	57-41	W	100%
1-5	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	86-79	L	0%
1-9	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	H	53-57	L	0%
1-12	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	82-62	L	0%
1-19	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	59-64	L	0%
1-21	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	73-67	L	0%
1-26	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	H	73-57	W	100%
1-30	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	83-57	L	0%
2-2	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	H	60-43	W	100%
2-4	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	60-58	L	0%
2-9	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	H	59-72	L	0%
2-13	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	89-86	W	100%
2-16	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	73-47	L	0%
2-19	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	59-68	W	100%
2-23	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	H	69-81	L	0%
2-27	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	92-86	W	100%
3-2	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	78-65	L	0%
3-4	Baylor (71.0)	B12	H	79-70	W	100%
3-9	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	69-71	W	100%
3-13	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	N	70-57	W	100%
3-14	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	N	66-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas	B12	26.42	26.42	45.45	45.45	-2.40	-2.40
Kansas St.	B12	5.62	5.62	76.67	76.67	3.00	3.00
Texas Christian	B12	5.54	5.54	35.71	35.71	-1.58	-1.58
Kansas	B12	4.20	4.20	84.38	84.38	2.89	2.89
Oklahoma St.	B12	4.15	4.15	73.33	73.33	1.94	1.94
Oklahoma	B12	4.12	4.12	65.52	65.52	1.28	1.28
West Virginia	B12	4.11	4.11	36.67	36.67	-1.09	-1.09
Iowa St.	B12	4.10	4.10	67.74	67.74	1.46	1.46
Texas Tech	B12	4.10	4.10	37.93	37.93	-0.99	-0.99
Baylor	B12	4.05	4.05	55.17	55.17	0.42	0.42
Texas Arlington	WAC	1.71	1.71	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
UCLA	P12	1.66	1.66	72.73	72.73	0.76	0.76
Rice	CUSA	1.64	1.64	14.29	14.29	-1.17	-1.17
Southern California	P12	1.63	1.63	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Texas St.	WAC	1.61	1.61	34.38	34.38	-0.50	-0.50
Michigan St.	B10	1.61	1.61	74.19	74.19	0.78	0.78
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	23.33	23.33	-0.85	-0.85
North Carolina	ACC	1.59	1.59	71.88	71.88	0.69	0.69
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.59	1.59	32.26	32.26	-0.56	-0.56
Fresno St.	MWC	1.59	1.59	33.33	33.33	-0.53	-0.53
Georgetown	BE	1.59	1.59	80.00	80.00	0.95	0.95
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.56	1.56	46.67	46.67	-0.10	-0.10
Gonzaga	WCC	0.27	0.27	93.75	93.75	0.24	0.24
Lamar	Slnd	0.20	0.20	9.68	9.68	-0.16	-0.16
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.19	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Washington St.	P12	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Houston	CUSA	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.13	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Denver	WAC	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	85.19	85.19	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00