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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:118.9
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:76
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1030.00.01%
20-1124.30.03%
19-1232.60.05%
18-1340.50.28%
17-1450.21.15%
16-1561.33.10%
15-1673.96.31%
14-1787.011.77%
13-18101.916.42%
12-19117.519.38%
11-20133.318.00%
10-21149.912.56%
9-22166.06.82%
8-23182.82.98%
7-24198.30.98%
6-25214.00.13%
5-26229.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndH78-73W100%0.0
11-14Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBH80-59W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (199.9)BSkyH85-52W100%0.0
11-21Northwestern (51.2)B10N77-58L0%0.0
11-22Colorado (74.9)P12N54-68L0%0.0
11-29UT Arlington (67.2)SBH61-72L0%0.0
12-2Alabama (122.0)SECH77-68W100%0.0
12-6Michigan (38.7)B10A0-021%-9.8
12-10Long Beach St. (199.9)BWH0-085%12.3
12-17Arkansas (43.1)SECN0-036%-4.2
12-21UAB (139.7)CUSAH0-073%7.3
12-27Kent St. (194.9)MACH0-080%10.0
12-30Kansas St. (77.0)B12A0-026%-7.7
1-4Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12H0-042%-2.3
1-7Iowa St. (32.0)B12A0-012%-14.0
1-11TCU (45.1)B12H0-044%-1.9
1-14West Virginia (11.6)B12H0-013%-13.7
1-17Baylor (8.1)B12A0-011%-14.5
1-21Kansas (7.6)B12A0-08%-16.7
1-23Oklahoma (79.1)B12H0-049%-0.2
1-28Georgia (71.7)SECA0-035%-4.5
2-1Texas Tech (70.7)B12H0-042%-2.3
2-4TCU (45.1)B12A0-025%-8.2
2-7Iowa St. (32.0)B12H0-026%-7.7
2-11Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12A0-024%-8.6
2-14Oklahoma (79.1)B12A0-029%-6.5
2-18Kansas St. (77.0)B12H0-045%-1.4
2-20West Virginia (11.6)B12A0-05%-20.0
2-25Kansas (7.6)B12H0-019%-10.5
3-1Texas Tech (70.7)B12A0-024%-8.6
3-4Baylor (8.1)B12H0-025%-8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1228.8526.3141.3832.95-4.97-8.97
KansasB120.004.1687.5075.140.002.09
Texas TechB120.894.1187.5061.700.670.96
Oklahoma St.B120.004.1071.4353.410.000.28
Kansas St.B120.004.0887.5058.960.000.73
West VirginiaB120.004.0885.7183.130.002.70
BaylorB120.004.07100.0076.200.002.13
Iowa St.B120.004.0771.4367.140.001.40
OklahomaB120.004.0771.4347.470.00-0.21
TCUB120.004.07100.0061.390.000.93
ArkansasSEC0.451.7585.7166.270.320.57
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7457.1451.590.000.06
Louisiana MonroeSB7.591.7020.0030.87-4.55-0.65
UT ArlingtonSB7.141.6957.1466.231.020.55
AlabamaSEC7.141.6966.6753.572.380.12
ColoradoP127.741.6771.4361.333.320.38
NorthwesternB107.651.6771.4365.043.280.50
Eastern WashingtonBSky7.591.6783.3357.135.060.24
Incarnate WordSlnd7.141.6633.3345.22-2.38-0.16
Long Beach St.BW0.001.660.0039.07-0.00-0.36
UABCUSA0.001.6650.0061.050.000.37
MichiganB100.001.6475.0066.030.000.53
Kent St.MAC0.001.6157.1455.540.000.18
AuburnSEC0.000.3285.7157.450.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.1957.1452.370.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1987.5075.240.000.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.1911.1148.19-0.35-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1871.4349.170.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1675.0066.370.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1650.0046.240.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1687.5082.800.000.10
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.160.0025.23-0.45-0.08
MarylandB100.000.1687.5059.330.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1666.6766.180.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.1662.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.1687.5074.490.000.08
NebraskaB100.000.1657.1444.890.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.600.1525.0055.33-0.300.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1450.0058.040.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.140.0039.53-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1471.4363.930.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1462.5043.800.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.450.1450.0066.300.000.04
OregonP120.000.1375.0072.250.000.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1375.0086.710.000.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0048.500.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.1357.1442.530.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.13100.0078.850.000.08
Michigan St.B100.000.1355.5658.610.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.1340.0041.12-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1377.7876.040.000.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1240.0054.54-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1275.0061.490.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1242.8637.34-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1120.0041.92-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1175.0055.500.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1112.5030.39-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.1150.0043.390.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.890.1175.0071.470.450.05
SeattleWAC2.060.1116.6739.49-1.37-0.02
TroySB0.000.1142.8636.19-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.510.1125.0038.83-0.26-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.1157.1471.940.060.05
XavierBE0.000.1187.5070.890.000.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1112.5029.15-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1171.4354.860.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0022.31-0.00-0.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1125.0022.93-0.00-0.06
WoffordSC0.450.110.0034.81-0.45-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.450.1133.3330.44-0.15-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1175.0048.030.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.450.1187.5068.020.330.04
Colorado St.MWC0.450.1171.4360.540.190.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1142.8655.09-0.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1166.6758.060.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.1142.8628.98-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1137.5037.74-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1062.5052.330.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0816.6729.80-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0842.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0060.620.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0866.6761.330.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0871.4357.970.000.01
BryantNEC1.550.0825.0047.82-0.78-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0842.8627.96-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0850.0046.410.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0816.6739.20-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0875.0073.060.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.69-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.590.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.960.000.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.0840.0058.82-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0857.1453.990.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0833.3356.24-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
UCLAP120.000.08100.0086.690.000.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0833.3352.11-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.510.0828.5723.78-0.22-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0857.1467.260.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0825.0029.54-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0875.0075.340.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.450.050.0022.01-0.45-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.05100.0089.330.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0571.4368.980.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.510.0542.8647.11-0.07-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0528.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0533.3352.21-0.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0542.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0528.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0528.5742.90-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0585.7162.220.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0542.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.510.0520.0037.65-0.31-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.360.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.67-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.740.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0514.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0516.6730.34-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5641.690.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0555.5647.890.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.920.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0550.0050.450.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.760.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.11-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0514.2943.58-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0575.0066.100.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0542.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5076.230.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.84-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0583.3371.480.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.64-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0550.0030.350.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0537.5047.91-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0038.050.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0550.0045.970.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0550.0054.070.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.050.0032.52-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.85-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0575.0059.790.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0537.5035.09-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.510.0571.4373.490.220.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0575.0066.410.000.02
Notre DameACC0.890.05100.0077.380.890.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0557.1429.790.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4363.170.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0588.8978.400.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.840.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0542.8651.95-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.67-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0537.5051.64-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0021.80-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1458.840.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0566.6746.420.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0514.2931.28-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0528.5734.28-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.210.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0522.2241.71-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5052.01-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.920.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.06-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0587.5078.510.000.03
VMISC0.000.050.0016.78-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0016.68-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.890.0371.4355.820.380.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0371.4373.040.260.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.510.0342.8645.01-0.07-0.00
FordhamA100.450.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.510.0385.7153.560.360.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0070.180.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.450.0350.0054.070.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.30-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.510.0385.7174.990.360.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.450.03100.0074.440.450.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.450.0366.6735.430.15-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.450.0375.0054.490.220.00