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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:50.0
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:19
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:105


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1350.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Boston University (190.0)AEH82-46W100%0.0
11-15Rhode Island (257.0)A10H100-90W100%0.0
11-19Oregon St. (135.0)P12N100-95L0%0.0
11-21North Carolina St. (49.0)ACCN74-77L0%0.0
11-26Sam Houston St. (273.0)SlndH56-40W100%0.0
11-29North Texas (200.0)SBH73-57W100%0.0
12-3UCLA (117.0)P12A59-69W100%0.0
12-6Texas Arlington (111.0)SlndH80-62W100%0.0
12-10Texas St. (287.0)SlndH86-52W100%0.0
12-13Nicholls St. (298.0)SlndH93-40W100%0.0
12-17Temple (19.0)A10H77-65W100%0.0
12-21North Carolina (3.0)ACCA82-63L0%0.0
12-31Rice (171.0)CUSAH73-59W100%0.0
1-4Iowa St. (33.0)B12A77-71L0%0.0
1-7Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12H58-49W100%0.0
1-11Texas A&M (165.0)B12H61-51W100%0.0
1-14Missouri (10.0)B12A84-73L0%0.0
1-18Kansas St. (45.0)B12A84-80L0%0.0
1-21Kansas (6.0)B12H66-69L0%0.0
1-24Iowa St. (33.0)B12H62-55W100%0.0
1-28Baylor (8.0)B12A76-71L0%0.0
1-30Missouri (10.0)B12H66-67L0%0.0
2-4Texas Tech (241.0)B12H74-57W100%0.0
2-6Texas A&M (165.0)B12A68-70W100%0.0
2-11Kansas St. (45.0)B12H75-64W100%0.0
2-14Oklahoma (137.0)B12A58-69W100%0.0
2-18Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12A90-78L0%0.0
2-20Baylor (8.0)B12H72-77L0%0.0
2-25Texas Tech (241.0)B12A67-71W100%0.0
2-29Oklahoma (137.0)B12H72-64W100%0.0
3-3Kansas (6.0)B12A73-63L0%0.0
3-8Iowa St. (33.0)B12N65-71W100%0.0
3-9Missouri (10.0)B12N81-67L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.4126.4157.7857.784.114.11
MissouriB125.455.4587.1087.104.044.04
Iowa St.B125.375.3772.4172.412.412.41
BaylorB124.074.0777.4277.422.232.23
Texas A&MB124.034.0344.8344.83-0.42-0.42
KansasB124.004.0080.6580.652.452.45
Oklahoma St.B124.004.0043.3343.33-0.53-0.53
Texas TechB123.953.9527.5927.59-1.77-1.77
OklahomaB123.933.9351.7251.720.140.14
Kansas St.B123.923.9268.9768.971.491.49
Texas ArlingtonSlnd1.751.7576.6776.670.940.94
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
RiceCUSA1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.Slnd1.651.6536.0036.00-0.46-0.46
Nicholls St.Slnd1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
North TexasSB1.621.6253.5753.570.120.12
North CarolinaACC1.611.6184.8584.851.121.12
UCLAP121.581.5858.0658.060.260.26
North Carolina St.ACC1.581.5863.6463.640.430.43
TempleA101.571.5780.0080.000.940.94
Rhode IslandA101.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
Boston UniversityAE1.541.5451.6151.610.050.05
Oregon St.P121.541.5454.8454.840.150.15
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.360.3620.0020.00-0.22-0.22
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.3157.1457.140.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.210.2148.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1834.6234.62-0.06-0.06
Washington St.P120.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
CaliforniaP120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
LamarSlnd0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
HoustonCUSA0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1610.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Southern CaliforniaP120.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
FordhamA100.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
TulsaCUSA0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
HowardMEAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
WashingtonP120.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.116.456.45-0.10-0.10
MarylandACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
St. LouisA100.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
La SalleA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.08-0.08
West VirginiaBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MichiganB100.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
GramblingSWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
TroySB0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
LehighPat0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
LipscombASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
UtahP120.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.070.073.123.12-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.070.077.147.14-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
PittsburghBE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
North DakotaGWC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
South FloridaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
ElonSC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0265.3865.380.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
IdahoWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01