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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:46.2
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:17
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-76.00.01%
23-810.60.11%
22-914.70.82%
21-1019.83.62%
20-1127.110.48%
19-1235.419.38%
18-1344.324.81%
17-1453.521.21%
16-1563.213.03%
15-1674.15.05%
14-1789.11.32%
13-18105.40.14%
12-19112.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northwestern St. (338.0)SlndH105-59W100%0.0
11-14New Hampshire (260.1)AEH78-60W100%0.0
11-18Lipscomb (133.1)ASunH80-57W100%0.0
11-23Butler (37.4)BEN61-48W100%0.0
11-24Duke (3.1)ACCN78-85L0%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (33.3)WCCN76-71L0%0.0
11-29Florida A&M (340.3)MEACH82-58W100%0.0
12-5VCU (127.7)A10A67-71W100%0.0
12-12Michigan (37.6)B10H52-59L0%0.0
12-16Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAH75-60W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee St. (211.6)OVCH47-46W100%0.0
12-22Alabama (40.5)SECA50-66W100%0.0
12-29Kansas (5.9)B12H86-92L0%0.0
1-1Iowa St. (107.1)B12A70-74W100%0.0
1-6Baylor (58.6)B12A69-60L0%0.0
1-10TCU (28.0)B12H99-98W100%0.0
1-13Oklahoma St. (94.5)B12A65-64L0%0.0
1-17Texas Tech (26.3)B12H67-58W100%0.0
1-20West Virginia (15.9)B12A86-51L0%0.0
1-22Iowa St. (107.1)B12H0-077%8.3
1-27Mississippi (116.0)SECH0-079%9.0
1-31Texas Tech (26.3)B12A0-027%-6.9
2-3Oklahoma (22.7)B12H0-054%1.0
2-7Kansas St. (67.7)B12H0-063%3.6
2-10TCU (28.0)B12A0-033%-4.9
2-12Baylor (58.6)B12H0-057%2.0
2-17Oklahoma (22.7)B12A0-031%-5.4
2-21Kansas St. (67.7)B12A0-040%-2.8
2-24Oklahoma St. (94.5)B12H0-071%6.2
2-26Kansas (5.9)B12A0-016%-10.9
3-3West Virginia (15.9)B12H0-038%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.3426.3160.2454.305.402.26
OklahomaB120.514.1277.7868.640.281.54
KansasB123.064.1083.3378.922.042.37
Kansas St.B120.424.0773.6863.680.201.11
Oklahoma St.B122.854.0766.6753.380.950.27
TCUB122.854.0777.7867.811.581.45
Texas TechB122.924.0783.3374.241.941.97
West VirginiaB122.914.0783.3377.991.942.28
BaylorB123.054.0758.8255.000.540.41
Iowa St.B122.984.0764.7149.780.88-0.02
AlabamaSEC2.781.7572.2260.951.230.38
Tennessee St.OVC2.781.7037.5042.04-0.69-0.27
LipscombASun2.781.6756.2561.720.350.39
Northwestern St.Slnd2.631.677.6915.44-2.23-1.15
VCUA102.691.6463.1661.690.710.38
Louisiana TechCUSA2.701.6455.5657.260.300.24
MichiganB102.701.6475.0069.731.350.65
MississippiSEC0.001.6452.6346.690.00-0.11
ButlerBE2.631.6170.0065.171.050.49
DukeACC2.631.6188.8984.722.051.12
Florida A&MMEAC2.631.6110.5320.28-2.08-0.96
GonzagaWCC2.631.6180.0082.701.581.05
New HampshireAE2.631.6135.2941.57-0.77-0.27
Texas A&MSEC0.210.2368.4263.960.080.07
FloridaSEC0.210.2173.6871.560.100.09
ArkansasSEC0.000.1868.4264.200.000.05
MissouriSEC0.140.1866.6763.200.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.270.1821.0544.26-0.16-0.02
BelmontOVC0.220.1771.4374.660.100.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.290.1716.6724.91-0.19-0.09
TennesseeSEC0.080.1672.2268.930.030.06
NorthwesternB100.070.1655.0050.330.010.00
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1678.9577.380.080.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1625.0028.01-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.140.1655.0053.320.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.1673.6867.970.030.06
PittsburghACC0.280.1640.0030.87-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.070.1636.8435.57-0.02-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.320.1552.9452.650.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.1457.8953.190.040.01
North FloridaASun0.270.1431.5835.15-0.10-0.04
PurdueB100.280.1490.4888.370.230.11
RiceCUSA0.230.1411.1117.68-0.18-0.09
AmericanPat0.140.1326.3228.11-0.07-0.06
George WashingtonA100.140.1345.0043.48-0.01-0.02
CreightonBE0.200.1375.0070.700.100.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1327.7834.50-0.06-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1372.2258.920.060.02
Seton HallBE0.200.1375.0067.890.100.05
FordhamA100.200.1331.5829.06-0.07-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.230.1280.0078.850.140.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.1245.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1223.5328.69-0.07-0.05
NJITASun0.070.1138.8942.61-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1111.1118.000.00-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1143.7549.13-0.02-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.117.6923.28-0.14-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1172.2274.710.070.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1142.1143.51-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.070.1110.5314.83-0.05-0.08
UTSACUSA0.070.1141.1839.65-0.01-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1112.5025.45-0.11-0.05
IowaB100.140.1147.6244.02-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.190.1180.9576.520.120.06
PortlandWCC0.060.1127.7827.28-0.03-0.05
XavierBE0.140.1185.7180.080.100.06
SouthernSWAC0.210.1127.7840.97-0.09-0.02
LSUSEC0.130.1061.1153.170.030.01
Arizona St.P120.070.1078.9576.130.040.05
AuburnSEC0.070.1089.4777.000.050.06
GeorgiaSEC0.070.1066.6755.940.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1029.4139.63-0.06-0.02
NevadaMWC0.140.1085.7182.090.100.07
Oral RobertsSum0.070.1030.0032.52-0.03-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.130.1010.5318.34-0.10-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.070.1061.1151.910.020.00
VirginiaACC0.140.1094.7486.140.120.08
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.77-0.05-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0931.5832.720.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.085.8819.35-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.0826.6729.04-0.08-0.04
SMUAmer0.160.0870.0070.570.070.03
UtahP120.160.0863.1659.710.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0841.1838.47-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0844.4446.00-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0844.4446.65-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.210.0866.6768.540.070.03
WisconsinB100.070.0850.0046.300.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0823.5325.64-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0837.5037.68-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0845.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.140.0833.3337.23-0.05-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0861.1158.700.010.01
MarylandB100.130.0870.0065.250.050.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0815.7920.91-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.140.0842.8635.24-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.130.0866.6759.820.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0880.0075.060.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0865.0054.670.040.01
BYUWCC0.070.0880.9576.240.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.089.5217.90-0.11-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.140.0873.6869.640.070.03
HowardMEAC0.130.0810.5327.29-0.10-0.04
MarquetteBE0.130.0868.4260.550.050.02
South DakotaSum0.140.0873.6872.380.070.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0872.2272.980.030.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0866.6768.730.020.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0847.3742.160.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.230.030.02
UCFAmer0.140.0868.4260.860.050.02
VillanovaBE0.130.0894.7490.310.110.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.0868.4257.740.000.01
WashingtonP120.130.0870.0061.440.050.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0628.5731.26-0.04-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0637.5045.240.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0650.0051.380.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0652.9455.030.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0657.8966.260.010.02
StetsonASun0.080.0633.3336.93-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.067.6920.09-0.05-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.0616.6724.26-0.10-0.03
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0650.0045.930.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.21-0.02-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0633.3333.87-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.040.03
Murray St.OVC0.140.0670.5975.950.060.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0655.5656.740.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.130.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.140.0545.0045.49-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0552.6347.520.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0583.3381.370.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0578.9576.750.040.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0578.9576.990.040.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0545.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0541.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
OregonP120.000.0565.0063.850.000.01
USCP120.000.0571.4368.280.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0510.5316.75-0.10-0.04
IndianaB100.130.0557.8950.710.020.00
Michigan St.B100.130.0585.0083.200.090.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0563.6457.630.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0550.0052.460.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0547.3750.94-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.009.09-0.07-0.04
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.31-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0568.4254.070.020.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0552.6343.110.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0540.0043.35-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0527.7829.10-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0522.02-0.04-0.03
MercerSC0.140.0544.4454.86-0.020.01
Miami FLACC0.140.0577.7870.480.080.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.67-0.07-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0545.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0511.1115.290.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0545.0044.47-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.130.0558.8263.210.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0570.0060.470.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0583.3381.430.050.03
RichmondA100.070.0531.5834.36-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0547.3746.92-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0590.4888.960.050.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0563.1657.540.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0550.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.0533.3332.94-0.04-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.870.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.370.010.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.700.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0530.0039.930.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0521.0524.750.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0542.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0547.3741.440.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0564.7159.990.020.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.690.030.01
YaleIvy0.070.0541.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.890.000.00
NavyPat0.080.0360.0055.160.020.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.140.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.50-0.04-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.260.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.12-0.06-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.35-0.04-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0326.3230.49-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.050.010.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.540.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0368.4263.650.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0362.5058.690.020.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
RutgersB100.060.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0317.6523.86-0.04-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0365.0062.050.020.01
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0365.0057.880.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.020.020.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.240.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.080.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.520.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0347.3746.090.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.060.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.790.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.820.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0352.9460.220.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0358.8262.820.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.710.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.260.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.020.020.01
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.15-0.03-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0321.0523.51-0.04-0.01