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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:5.5
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:31
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.27%
29-21.32.28%
28-31.77.98%
27-42.415.34%
26-53.621.85%
25-65.322.04%
24-77.615.78%
23-810.69.00%
22-914.33.81%
21-1018.31.25%
20-1124.00.35%
19-1231.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Dakota St. (169.7)SumH85-50W100%0.0
11-16Alcorn St. (324.2)SWACH85-53W100%0.0
11-20Iowa (46.8)B10N57-71W100%0.0
11-21California (61.0)P12N55-71W100%0.0
11-25St. Francis PA (172.1)NECH78-46W100%0.0
11-30Connecticut (78.4)AmerA54-55W100%0.0
12-2UT Arlington (139.5)SBH63-53W100%0.0
12-5Kentucky (1.7)SECA63-51L0%0.0
12-13Texas St. (197.3)SBH59-27W100%0.0
12-16Lipscomb (242.5)ASunH106-61W100%0.0
12-20Long Beach St. (88.9)BWH0-096%20.7
12-23Stanford (59.2)P12H0-091%15.7
12-29Rice (289.4)CUSAH0-0100%31.7
1-3Texas Tech (134.6)B12A0-086%12.8
1-5Oklahoma (18.8)B12H0-079%9.6
1-10Oklahoma St. (30.6)B12A0-062%3.6
1-17West Virginia (25.5)B12H0-084%11.5
1-19TCU (65.6)B12A0-068%5.5
1-24Kansas (7.7)B12H0-081%10.6
1-26Iowa St. (34.6)B12A0-062%3.7
1-31Baylor (9.7)B12A0-047%-1.0
2-4Oklahoma St. (30.6)B12H0-086%12.6
2-7Kansas St. (131.3)B12A0-085%12.4
2-11TCU (65.6)B12H0-089%14.4
2-14Texas Tech (134.6)B12H0-097%21.8
2-17Oklahoma (18.8)B12A0-052%0.6
2-21Iowa St. (34.6)B12H0-086%12.7
2-24West Virginia (25.5)B12A0-059%2.6
2-28Kansas (7.7)B12A0-055%1.6
3-2Baylor (9.7)B12H0-075%8.0
3-7Kansas St. (131.3)B12H0-096%21.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1228.1426.3392.1182.5823.7017.16
Kansas St.B120.004.1160.0040.280.00-0.80
West VirginiaB120.364.1190.0070.210.291.66
KansasB120.234.1188.8972.550.181.85
Iowa St.B120.234.1088.8967.430.181.43
TCUB120.004.08100.0070.600.001.68
BaylorB120.004.0888.8977.640.002.25
OklahomaB120.004.0877.7870.430.001.67
Texas TechB120.004.0887.5050.690.000.06
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0788.8966.950.001.38
IowaB105.631.7380.0064.743.380.51
UT ArlingtonSB5.231.7062.5057.851.310.27
CaliforniaP125.361.70100.0068.165.360.62
KentuckySEC5.281.69100.0094.285.281.50
ConnecticutAmer5.001.6966.6757.931.670.27
StanfordP120.001.6971.4362.940.000.44
Texas St.SB5.001.6775.0049.732.50-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC5.481.660.0033.87-5.48-0.54
Long Beach St.BW0.001.6640.0051.87-0.000.06
North Dakota St.Sum5.231.6462.5058.401.310.28
LipscombASun5.001.6128.5744.53-2.14-0.18
RiceCUSA0.001.6116.6725.96-0.00-0.78
St. Francis PANEC5.001.6150.0057.930.000.26
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.500.340.0038.78-0.50-0.08
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2262.5064.900.000.06
UCLAP120.000.2172.7357.470.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1944.4431.46-0.00-0.07
Washington St.P120.000.1940.0028.86-0.00-0.08
WashingtonP120.000.19100.0070.570.000.08
Georgia St.SB0.000.1771.4372.840.000.08
North TexasCUSA0.000.1742.8636.73-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0034.13-0.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1710.0018.39-0.00-0.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1711.1145.10-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1650.0059.030.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1655.5657.230.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.16100.0080.930.000.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.880.1530.0028.28-0.35-0.06
TroySB0.360.1533.3341.99-0.12-0.02
UTSACUSA0.500.1442.8635.74-0.07-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1411.1130.96-0.00-0.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1475.0050.490.000.00
MarylandB100.000.1490.9167.920.000.05
BradleyMVC0.280.1333.3332.65-0.09-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.1377.7861.940.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1377.7866.040.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.1390.9188.300.000.10
FloridaSEC0.000.1360.0064.780.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1357.1445.530.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1242.8633.13-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1242.8639.29-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1220.0033.83-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1260.0064.120.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1242.8652.83-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1233.3347.11-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.120.0039.43-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1244.4444.67-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.500.1114.2932.21-0.36-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1137.5051.76-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1125.0033.31-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.0011.08-0.00-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1162.5078.030.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.310.1175.0060.540.160.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1111.1143.47-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0035.83-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.1160.0053.940.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1125.0025.93-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1125.0049.05-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.1160.0054.040.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1137.5064.38-0.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1122.2242.30-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.1160.0037.100.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6755.560.000.01
UtahP120.000.1077.7880.520.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1062.5059.380.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.1075.0069.750.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0966.6772.150.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0944.4455.06-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0920.0040.86-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0950.0061.230.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.860.0944.4449.79-0.10-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0944.4444.49-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.780.0825.0027.78-0.39-0.04
BryantNEC0.360.0828.5746.92-0.15-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0822.2230.95-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.310.0866.6757.220.100.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0871.4360.170.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.310.080.0017.65-0.31-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.360.0875.0065.380.180.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.94-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.280.0837.5046.90-0.07-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.280.0828.5742.20-0.12-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0877.7871.340.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0837.5032.05-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.250.0833.3332.44-0.08-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.250.0830.0028.54-0.10-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0870.0066.410.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.360.0850.0045.540.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.480.0866.6757.080.160.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0871.4350.790.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0875.0077.280.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0870.0070.960.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0866.6751.450.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0857.1447.630.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.400.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.310.0622.2231.80-0.17-0.02
BelmontOVC0.620.0660.0062.380.120.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.130.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.66-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0013.85-0.00-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1454.620.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1129.36-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6765.150.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.280.0650.0032.740.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.02-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.92-0.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.940.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0610.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0687.5080.890.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.280.0620.0039.53-0.17-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.09-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.71-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3343.11-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0057.760.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0625.0047.42-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.61-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.530.0625.0050.98-0.260.00
PrincetonIvy0.250.0627.2737.98-0.11-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3358.570.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.02-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0560.0035.390.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.510.0575.0069.770.250.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.510.0540.0044.19-0.10-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0557.1459.520.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0580.0072.430.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.890.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0536.3639.31-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0522.2230.22-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.370.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0520.0020.57-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.05100.0087.520.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5037.27-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0566.6753.390.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0566.6754.790.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3326.81-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0542.8638.69-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0540.0065.07-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0550.0056.650.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0530.0031.51-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6770.530.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0522.2236.43-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0550.0048.280.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.670.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0585.7161.820.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0542.8644.92-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0580.0071.140.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.230.0562.5064.640.060.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.390.000.04
NevadaMWC0.250.0512.5024.45-0.19-0.03
OregonP120.000.0562.5057.800.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6741.850.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.22-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.740.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.850.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.62-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6742.930.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0039.09-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.450.0570.0071.650.180.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0580.0063.530.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0566.6744.720.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0588.8984.020.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0562.5053.840.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0054.960.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5072.760.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0545.4551.71-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.73-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0516.6727.17-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3338.85-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.280.0360.0056.480.060.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4450.93-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.280.0325.0033.19-0.14-0.01
SeattleWAC0.500.0337.5045.72-0.13-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0350.0050.190.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.480.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0051.980.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0370.0066.510.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5041.09-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0058.490.000.01
OhioMAC0.360.0350.0037.020.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0049.220.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.250.000.00
AlbanyAE0.360.0333.3348.50-0.12-0.00
AmericanPat0.360.0360.0065.090.070.01
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.360.0342.8651.80-0.050.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.360.0341.6743.24-0.06-0.00
NavyPat0.360.0320.0021.16-0.21-0.02
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.92-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.360.030.0014.53-0.36-0.02
DaytonA100.360.0377.7869.570.200.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.008.21-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6739.030.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0328.5722.66-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0377.7875.600.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.670.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0350.0030.140.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.950.000.00
YaleIvy0.360.0370.0064.560.140.01
Boston UniversityPat0.230.0333.3342.09-0.08-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.23-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0342.8655.73-0.030.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.390.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.560.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.230.0322.2227.64-0.13-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.230.0350.0033.140.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0079.360.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.340.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.230.0371.4360.450.100.01
ProvidenceBE0.230.0372.7352.480.100.00
UMBCAE0.230.0310.0021.35-0.18-0.01
WyomingMWC0.250.0377.7873.060.140.01