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Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:21.7
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:226
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:18
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-21.00.01%
27-31.90.31%
26-43.11.15%
25-54.13.23%
24-65.67.34%
23-78.312.08%
22-812.116.02%
21-917.018.06%
20-1024.215.77%
19-1133.012.45%
18-1243.27.63%
17-1356.43.65%
16-1469.91.55%
15-1586.70.56%
14-16108.00.14%
13-17142.70.03%
12-18141.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Dakota St. (189.6)SumH85-50W100%0.0
11-16Alcorn St. (279.5)SWACH85-53W100%0.0
11-20Iowa (30.3)B10N0-051%0.4
11-25St. Francis PA (227.6)NECH0-096%20.9
11-30Connecticut (22.2)AmerA0-040%-3.0
12-2UT Arlington (167.4)SBH0-094%18.3
12-5Kentucky (3.1)SECA0-017%-11.2
12-13Texas St. (171.3)SBH0-094%19.0
12-16Lipscomb (246.8)ASunH0-097%22.3
12-20Long Beach St. (125.0)BWH0-089%14.5
12-23Stanford (59.6)P12H0-076%8.4
12-29Rice (277.1)CUSAH0-098%24.9
1-3Texas Tech (160.1)B12A0-072%6.9
1-5Oklahoma (42.6)B12H0-070%6.2
1-10Oklahoma St. (85.2)B12A0-059%2.7
1-17West Virginia (35.7)B12H0-070%6.4
1-19TCU (171.9)B12A0-069%6.1
1-24Kansas (21.7)B12H0-066%4.8
1-26Iowa St. (45.5)B12A0-048%-0.8
1-31Baylor (25.7)B12A0-042%-2.5
2-4Oklahoma St. (85.2)B12H0-079%9.8
2-7Kansas St. (61.4)B12A0-050%0.0
2-11TCU (171.9)B12H0-087%13.2
2-14Texas Tech (160.1)B12H0-088%14.1
2-17Oklahoma (42.6)B12A0-047%-1.0
2-21Iowa St. (45.5)B12H0-070%6.4
2-24West Virginia (35.7)B12A0-048%-0.7
2-28Kansas (21.7)B12A0-042%-2.4
3-2Baylor (25.7)B12H0-065%4.6
3-7Kansas St. (61.4)B12H0-073%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1237.5026.40100.0068.2437.509.63
Kansas St.B120.004.28100.0064.250.001.22
Iowa St.B120.004.28100.0065.640.001.34
KansasB120.004.2850.0063.580.001.16
TCUB120.004.26100.0056.370.000.54
Texas TechB120.004.2650.0048.180.00-0.16
BaylorB120.004.25100.0072.050.001.88
West VirginiaB120.004.25100.0067.330.001.47
OklahomaB120.004.2550.0061.520.000.98
Oklahoma St.B120.004.25100.0053.970.000.34
IowaB106.251.79100.0068.866.250.67
UT ArlingtonSB0.001.7650.0054.280.000.15
KentuckySEC0.001.75100.0087.810.001.33
Long Beach St.BW0.001.720.0048.18-0.00-0.06
Texas St.SB0.001.72100.0058.320.000.29
StanfordP120.001.70100.0062.940.000.44
ConnecticutAmer0.001.70100.0073.500.000.80
Alcorn St.SWAC25.001.690.0041.06-25.00-0.30
North Dakota St.Sum25.001.690.0051.86-25.000.06
LipscombASun0.001.670.0042.70-0.00-0.24
RiceCUSA0.001.6750.0031.110.00-0.63
St. Francis PANEC0.001.670.0050.02-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.360.0033.94-0.00-0.11
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2350.0050.780.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.2066.6754.700.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.18100.0047.330.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.180.0061.13-0.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0048.17-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0039.95-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.180.0023.33-0.00-0.09
MemphisAmer0.000.180.0065.23-0.000.05
UCLAP120.000.17100.0063.500.000.05
TroySB0.000.150.0041.54-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.150.0029.08-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1533.3337.15-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.14100.0057.940.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.140.0025.06-0.00-0.07
FloridaSEC0.000.1450.0070.050.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.14100.0064.450.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1350.0056.910.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1250.0036.560.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.120.0015.45-0.00-0.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.120.0050.34-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.120.0045.63-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.120.0045.30-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.120.0034.89-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.120.0059.23-0.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.12100.0053.140.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3339.11-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.120.0039.59-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.12100.0044.710.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.120.0016.45-0.00-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.120.0066.66-0.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.120.0040.28-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1266.6757.410.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1250.0029.550.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0057.520.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0055.53-0.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0057.750.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.120.0051.34-0.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0051.63-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.1166.6763.540.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1150.0059.230.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.110.0046.03-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.110.0033.08-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.11100.0054.510.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1150.0055.500.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.100.0024.69-0.00-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0072.000.000.04
DenverSum0.000.10100.0065.200.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0035.74-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0046.40-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.090.0048.73-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.09100.0059.950.000.02
CaliforniaP126.250.09100.0059.686.250.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.09100.0042.360.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.090.0049.65-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0044.59-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0066.070.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.090.0023.96-0.00-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0063.980.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0059.71-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0029.46-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.09100.0063.170.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0950.0054.380.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.09100.0056.650.000.01
UtahP120.000.0950.0063.990.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0950.0066.170.000.03
PurdueB100.000.09100.0052.910.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0075.270.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.080.0047.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0850.0052.110.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0850.0037.900.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.07100.0064.670.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3326.69-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.070.0051.45-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0034.77-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.07100.0055.760.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0037.25-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.32-0.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0033.18-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0071.270.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0059.830.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.380.000.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3335.79-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0027.16-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0071.150.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.28-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0051.970.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.500.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0070.250.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0027.02-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0058.77-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.060.0034.60-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0039.86-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3345.39-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0056.280.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.49-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0035.160.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6750.960.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.78-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0033.68-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3337.80-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.06100.0042.320.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0042.400.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.40-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.060.0031.14-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.060.0036.13-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.31-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0042.02-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0034.720.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0072.920.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0055.300.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0029.37-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0066.640.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0050.40-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.23-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.59-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.100.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0035.06-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0054.620.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0031.94-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.10-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0650.0037.740.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0044.510.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0650.0044.590.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0060.230.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.370.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6762.860.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0055.680.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.640.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0064.150.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0053.420.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0028.09-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0046.590.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.060.0043.54-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0083.870.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0044.100.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0044.97-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0666.6740.290.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0057.290.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.05100.0068.450.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0067.010.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0050.94-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0038.37-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0056.19-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.320.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0068.290.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0051.620.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.660.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.890.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3351.13-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0350.0053.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0041.36-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0046.600.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0048.000.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0061.920.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.340.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.240.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.54-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.030.0039.33-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0333.3331.18-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0037.69-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0050.990.000.00
NJITind0.000.0333.3329.39-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.250.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.470.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0066.300.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.050.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0057.050.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0069.810.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.030.0054.42-0.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0042.59-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0040.670.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0033.140.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.960.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0062.310.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0058.740.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.55-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.03100.0070.350.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0069.890.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.030.0039.06-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0066.000.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0049.040.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0054.330.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.56-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0054.740.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.250.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0039.790.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0056.240.000.00