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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:27.0
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:4
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1227.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Washington (83.0)P12N71-77L0%0.0
11-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH67-56W100%0.0
11-25Texas A&M (18.0)SECN73-84L0%0.0
11-26Washington (83.0)P12N70-82W100%0.0
11-27Michigan (56.0)B10N78-72L0%0.0
12-1UT Arlington (105.0)SBH80-73W100%0.0
12-4Samford (252.0)SCH59-49W100%0.0
12-8UTSA (347.0)CUSAH116-50W100%0.0
12-12North Carolina (5.0)ACCH84-82W100%0.0
12-15Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH67-55W100%0.0
12-19Stanford (86.0)P12A73-75W100%0.0
12-29Connecticut (32.0)AmerH66-71L0%0.0
1-2Texas Tech (36.0)B12A82-74L0%0.0
1-5Kansas St. (92.0)B12H60-57W100%0.0
1-9TCU (174.0)B12A58-57L0%0.0
1-12Iowa St. (23.0)B12H94-91W100%0.0
1-16Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H74-69W100%0.0
1-20West Virginia (10.0)B12A49-56W100%0.0
1-23Kansas (1.0)B12A76-67L0%0.0
1-26TCU (174.0)B12H71-54W100%0.0
1-30Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH72-58W100%0.0
2-1Baylor (25.0)B12A59-67W100%0.0
2-6Texas Tech (36.0)B12H69-59W100%0.0
2-8Oklahoma (6.0)B12A63-60L0%0.0
2-13Iowa St. (23.0)B12A85-75L0%0.0
2-16West Virginia (10.0)B12H85-78W100%0.0
2-20Baylor (25.0)B12H64-78L0%0.0
2-22Kansas St. (92.0)B12A70-71W100%0.0
2-27Oklahoma (6.0)B12H76-63W100%0.0
2-29Kansas (1.0)B12H56-86L0%0.0
3-4Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A50-62W100%0.0
3-10Baylor (25.0)B12N61-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.3626.3659.4259.424.974.97
BaylorB125.555.5565.5265.521.721.72
KansasB124.144.1487.1087.103.073.07
West VirginiaB124.094.0981.2581.252.562.56
TCUB124.094.0935.4835.48-1.19-1.19
Kansas St.B124.094.0954.8454.840.400.40
OklahomaB124.044.0480.0080.002.422.42
Iowa St.B124.024.0266.6766.671.341.34
Oklahoma St.B123.993.9940.0040.00-0.80-0.80
Texas TechB123.993.9962.0762.070.960.96
WashingtonP123.233.2356.6756.670.430.43
Texas A&MSEC1.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
VanderbiltSEC1.731.7361.2961.290.390.39
StanfordP121.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC1.641.6484.8584.851.141.14
Appalachian St.SB1.631.6330.0030.00-0.65-0.65
UT ArlingtonSB1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.611.6179.3179.310.940.94
UTSACUSA1.591.5913.7913.79-1.15-1.15
ConnecticutAmer1.591.5969.7069.700.620.62
MichiganB101.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
SamfordSC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
OregonP120.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
UtahP120.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
ColoradoP120.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
UCLAP120.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1882.1482.140.110.11
Texas St.SB0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
ArizonaP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Oregon St.P120.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1587.1087.100.110.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
SMUAmer0.140.1483.3383.330.100.10
TennesseeSEC0.140.1444.1244.12-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MemphisAmer0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
South AlabamaSB0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1020.8320.83-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MontanaBSky0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
VMISC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01