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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:42.0
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:16
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1342.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH85-50W100%0.0
11-16Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH85-53W100%0.0
11-20Iowa (43.0)B10N57-71W100%0.0
11-21California (95.0)P12N55-71W100%0.0
11-25St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH78-46W100%0.0
11-30Connecticut (77.0)AmerA54-55W100%0.0
12-2UT Arlington (184.0)SBH63-53W100%0.0
12-5Kentucky (1.0)SECA63-51L0%0.0
12-13Texas St. (236.0)SBH59-27W100%0.0
12-16Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH106-61W100%0.0
12-20Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH78-68W100%0.0
12-23Stanford (59.0)P12H71-74L0%0.0
12-29Rice (247.0)CUSAH66-55W100%0.0
1-3Texas Tech (183.0)B12A61-70W100%0.0
1-5Oklahoma (18.0)B12H49-70L0%0.0
1-10Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A69-58L0%0.0
1-17West Virginia (24.0)B12H77-50W100%0.0
1-19TCU (131.0)B12A48-66W100%0.0
1-24Kansas (2.0)B12H62-75L0%0.0
1-26Iowa St. (9.0)B12A89-86L0%0.0
1-31Baylor (10.0)B12A83-60L0%0.0
2-4Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H63-65L0%0.0
2-7Kansas St. (100.0)B12A57-61W100%0.0
2-11TCU (131.0)B12H66-43W100%0.0
2-14Texas Tech (183.0)B12H56-41W100%0.0
2-17Oklahoma (18.0)B12A71-69L0%0.0
2-21Iowa St. (9.0)B12H77-85L0%0.0
2-24West Virginia (24.0)B12A71-64L0%0.0
2-28Kansas (2.0)B12A69-64L0%0.0
3-2Baylor (10.0)B12H61-59W100%0.0
3-7Kansas St. (100.0)B12H62-49W100%0.0
3-11Texas Tech (183.0)B12N65-53W100%0.0
3-12Iowa St. (9.0)B12N69-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
TexasB1226.4026.4057.3457.343.883.88
Iowa St.B125.465.4673.3373.332.552.55
Texas TechB125.345.3444.8344.83-0.55-0.55
KansasB124.074.0775.0075.002.032.03
OklahomaB124.004.0066.6766.671.331.33
TCUB123.973.9758.0658.060.640.64
BaylorB123.973.9773.3373.331.851.85
Kansas St.B123.953.9550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB123.953.9573.3373.331.841.84
Oklahoma St.B123.923.9253.5753.570.280.28
IowaB101.631.6367.7467.740.580.58
UT ArlingtonSB1.621.6251.7251.720.060.06
Texas St.SB1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
CaliforniaP121.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
Alcorn St.SWAC1.591.5917.2417.24-1.04-1.04
ConnecticutAmer1.591.5960.6160.610.340.34
KentuckySEC1.581.58100.00100.001.581.58
StanfordP121.581.5858.0658.060.260.26
North Dakota St.Sum1.561.5672.4172.410.700.70
Long Beach St.BW1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
LipscombASun1.521.5240.7440.74-0.28-0.28
RiceCUSA1.521.5235.7135.71-0.43-0.43
St. Francis PANEC1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.320.3243.7543.75-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
MissouriSEC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1718.7518.75-0.10-0.10
TulsaAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
ArizonaP120.160.1691.1891.180.130.13
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
MemphisAmer0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
LSUSEC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
FloridaSEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
TroySB0.130.1329.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.120.000.00-0.12-0.12
HoustonAmer0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1086.6786.670.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
George MasonA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LafayettePat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0444.4444.44-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
RiderMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01