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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:208.0
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:209
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:245
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16208.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Ohio St. (90.0)B10H68-78L0%0.0
11-18North Dakota St. (111.0)SumN66-59L0%0.0
11-19High Point (236.0)BSthA69-62L0%0.0
11-20UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCN59-72L0%0.0
11-23UMBC (165.0)AEH78-66W100%0.0
11-26Penn (203.0)IvyH70-68W100%0.0
12-1College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA70-64L0%0.0
12-3Furman (96.0)SCA79-46L0%0.0
12-6Bryant (285.0)NECH76-74W100%0.0
12-9Columbia (262.0)IvyH69-54W100%0.0
12-22Hartford (327.0)AEA63-54L0%0.0
12-30Bucknell (63.0)PatH55-59L0%0.0
1-2Holy Cross (204.0)PatA51-50L0%0.0
1-5Boston University (187.0)PatH53-71L0%0.0
1-8Colgate (294.0)PatH67-55W100%0.0
1-11Loyola MD (212.0)PatA62-75W100%0.0
1-14Lafayette (321.0)PatA51-88W100%0.0
1-18Lehigh (97.0)PatH75-72W100%0.0
1-21Army (266.0)PatA80-96W100%0.0
1-25American (310.0)PatA53-71W100%0.0
1-28Holy Cross (204.0)PatH60-47W100%0.0
2-2Boston University (187.0)PatA61-70W100%0.0
2-4Colgate (294.0)PatA55-52L0%0.0
2-8Loyola MD (212.0)PatH62-59W100%0.0
2-11Lafayette (321.0)PatH68-60W100%0.0
2-15Lehigh (97.0)PatA74-55L0%0.0
2-18Army (266.0)PatH68-71L0%0.0
2-22American (310.0)PatH58-74L0%0.0
2-25Bucknell (63.0)PatA82-60L0%0.0
3-2Holy Cross (204.0)PatH49-42W100%0.0
3-5Bucknell (63.0)PatA70-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.4826.4847.4547.45-1.35-1.35
BucknellPat5.845.8474.1974.192.822.82
Holy CrossPat5.725.7248.2848.28-0.20-0.20
LehighPat4.334.3362.0762.071.051.05
ArmyPat4.314.3137.9337.93-1.04-1.04
Boston UniversityPat4.264.2655.1755.170.440.44
Loyola MDPat4.264.2650.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat4.244.2427.5927.59-1.90-1.90
LafayettePat4.234.2329.6329.63-1.72-1.72
AmericanPat4.214.2125.0025.00-2.10-2.10
ColumbiaIvy1.771.7740.0040.00-0.35-0.35
PennIvy1.731.7348.1548.15-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC1.721.7270.0070.000.690.69
HartfordAE1.671.6725.8125.81-0.81-0.81
High PointBSth1.671.6740.7440.74-0.31-0.31
North Dakota St.Sum1.671.6759.2659.260.310.31
FurmanSC1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
UMBCAE1.661.6659.2659.260.310.31
BryantNEC1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6171.8871.880.710.71
Ohio St.B101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
New HampshireAE0.340.3458.6258.620.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.330.3378.5778.570.190.19
AlbanyAE0.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
MaineAE0.270.2719.3519.35-0.16-0.16
BinghamtonAE0.270.2731.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2655.8855.880.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
The CitadelSC0.240.2430.0030.00-0.09-0.09
CornellIvy0.230.2325.0025.00-0.11-0.11
YaleIvy0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
HarvardIvy0.220.2261.5461.540.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.190.1925.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
SyracuseACC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
VillanovaBE0.160.1691.1891.180.130.13
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
TowsonCAA0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1470.0070.000.050.05
DuquesneA100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
SamfordSC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Notre DameACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
MercerSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01