Navy

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	200.0
Current RPI:	200
Expected SOS:	320
Current SOS:	320
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	19-4
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	150
Expected OOC SOS:	309

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	200.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	H	71-62	W	100%
11-12	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	A	89-55	L	0%
11-15	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	A	66-45	L	0%
11-18	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	71-79	W	100%
11-24	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	N	85-76	W	100%
11-25	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	70-54	L	0%
11-26	Denver (224.0)	Sum	N	71-79	W	100%
12-1	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	82-76	W	100%
12-3	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	66-59	W	100%
12-6	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	53-70	W	100%
12-10	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	68-73	W	100%
12-21	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	64-73	L	0%
12-29	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	72-63	L	0%
1-2	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	78-66	W	100%
1-5	American (336.0)	Pat	H	70-64	W	100%
1-8	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	70-62	L	0%
1-11	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	61-56	W	100%
1-14	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	62-64	L	0%
1-17	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	72-75	W	100%
1-20	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	68-75	L	0%
1-24	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	67-87	L	0%
1-27	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	75-77	W	100%
1-31	American (336.0)	Pat	A	44-61	W	100%
2-4	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	64-69	L	0%
2-7	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	34-69	W	100%
2-10	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	59-68	W	100%
2-14	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	71-69	W	100%
2-17	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	48-62	W	100%
2-21	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	85-61	L	0%
2-24	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	62-56	W	100%
3-1	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	65-81	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Navy	Pat	26.41	26.41	61.78	61.78	6.22	6.22
Holy Cross	Pat	5.74	5.74	39.29	39.29	-1.23	-1.23
Colgate	Pat	4.34	4.34	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
Bucknell	Pat	4.30	4.30	71.88	71.88	1.88	1.88
Lafayette	Pat	4.26	4.26	32.14	32.14	-1.52	-1.52
Boston University	Pat	4.25	4.25	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Army	Pat	4.23	4.23	40.74	40.74	-0.78	-0.78
Loyola MD	Pat	4.23	4.23	25.00	25.00	-2.11	-2.11
Lehigh	Pat	4.20	4.20	55.56	55.56	0.47	0.47
American	Pat	4.18	4.18	21.43	21.43	-2.39	-2.39
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.78	1.78	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Columbia	Ivy	1.77	1.77	28.00	28.00	-0.78	-0.78
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.75	1.75	63.33	63.33	0.47	0.47
Penn	Ivy	1.73	1.73	73.33	73.33	0.81	0.81
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.72	1.72	25.81	25.81	-0.83	-0.83
Miami FL	ACC	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
Lipscomb	ASun	1.69	1.69	67.86	67.86	0.60	0.60
Bryant	NEC	1.67	1.67	10.00	10.00	-1.33	-1.33
Denver	Sum	1.67	1.67	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.67	1.67	16.13	16.13	-1.13	-1.13
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Delaware	CAA	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.35	0.35	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.25	0.25	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.25	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.24	0.24	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.23	0.23	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Marist	MAAC	0.22	0.22	19.35	19.35	-0.13	-0.13
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.22	0.22	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.21	0.21	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.21	0.21	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.19	0.19	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.19	0.19	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.18	0.18	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	10.71	10.71	-0.13	-0.13
Connecticut	Amer	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	6.67	6.67	-0.14	-0.14
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Elon	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Louisville	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01