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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:180.0
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:297
Current Record:16-9
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-5
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9159.312.96%
20-10171.833.32%
19-11184.333.47%
18-12196.916.12%
17-13209.73.86%
16-14223.20.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida (23.5)SECH41-59L0%0.0
11-16College of Charleston (103.4)CAAH58-72L0%0.0
11-19USC Upstate (327.4)ASunA55-67W100%0.0
11-25UMBC (321.1)AEA54-75W100%0.0
11-27UNC Greensboro (285.3)SCA66-70W100%0.0
11-28Jacksonville (252.0)ASunN71-65W100%0.0
11-29IPFW (82.0)SumN53-75W100%0.0
12-2Penn (276.4)IvyA59-65W100%0.0
12-7Oregon (6.2)P12N47-67L0%0.0
12-12VMI (330.0)SCA62-68W100%0.0
12-14USC Upstate (327.4)ASunH57-66L0%0.0
12-22Furman (157.9)SCH62-49W100%0.0
12-30Bucknell (181.8)PatA88-58L0%0.0
1-2Holy Cross (285.9)PatH65-60W100%0.0
1-6Boston University (186.5)PatA67-83W100%0.0
1-9Colgate (228.0)PatA68-71W100%0.0
1-13Loyola MD (238.2)PatH60-52W100%0.0
1-16Lafayette (323.1)PatH87-61W100%0.0
1-20Lehigh (196.2)PatA64-69W100%0.0
1-27American (264.6)PatH58-63L0%0.0
1-30Holy Cross (285.9)PatA87-80L0%0.0
2-1Army (217.9)PatA50-64W100%0.0
2-3Boston University (186.5)PatH72-83L0%0.0
2-6Colgate (228.0)PatH55-58L0%0.0
2-10Loyola MD (238.2)PatA51-71W100%0.0
2-13Lafayette (323.1)PatA0-074%7.2
2-17Lehigh (196.2)PatH0-064%3.9
2-20Army (217.9)PatH0-068%5.1
2-24American (264.6)PatA0-072%6.4
2-27Bucknell (181.8)PatH0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.4926.4663.4563.327.127.05
LafayettePat2.854.2921.7422.34-1.61-2.37
Loyola MDPat4.634.2936.3637.78-1.26-1.05
ColgatePat4.664.2842.8644.51-0.67-0.47
Boston UniversityPat4.594.2756.5256.970.600.59
AmericanPat2.764.2626.0928.77-1.32-1.81
ArmyPat2.764.2656.5257.130.360.61
Holy CrossPat4.634.2640.9138.82-0.84-0.95
BucknellPat2.714.2650.0053.600.000.31
LehighPat2.754.2640.9144.74-0.50-0.45
USC UpstateASun4.043.4019.0520.21-2.50-2.02
JacksonvilleASun2.211.8850.0050.440.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC2.261.8527.2729.46-1.03-0.76
FurmanSC2.181.7958.3356.370.360.23
UMBCAE2.171.7824.0026.73-1.13-0.83
VMISC2.171.7820.0020.49-1.30-1.05
IPFWSum2.091.7373.9171.111.000.73
PennIvy2.041.7241.1839.14-0.36-0.37
FloridaSEC2.041.7065.2265.200.620.52
College of CharlestonCAA2.001.6759.0957.380.360.25
OregonP122.001.6778.2676.421.130.88
NJITASun0.290.3356.0055.640.030.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.290.2942.3146.12-0.04-0.02
New HampshireAE0.330.2859.0956.870.060.04
The CitadelSC0.300.2830.4329.49-0.12-0.11
BinghamtonAE0.300.2624.0026.44-0.16-0.12
Stony BrookAE0.250.2382.6183.010.160.15
AlbanyAE0.330.2373.0873.780.150.11
StetsonASun0.220.2122.7327.39-0.12-0.10
Western CarolinaSC0.270.2131.8234.54-0.10-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.300.2150.0052.870.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.220.1925.0026.38-0.11-0.09
LipscombASun0.260.1928.0030.49-0.11-0.07
North FloridaASun0.130.1962.5064.120.030.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.220.1860.8760.240.050.04
MercerSC0.130.1866.6767.110.040.06
SamfordSC0.170.1840.0041.68-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.180.1845.8348.12-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1866.6765.240.030.06
CornellIvy0.130.1842.1140.24-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.1872.2274.700.060.09
HarvardIvy0.220.1735.0038.57-0.07-0.04
MaineAE0.200.1732.0031.16-0.07-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1583.3383.710.080.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1526.9228.60-0.07-0.06
MaristMAAC0.170.1521.7424.25-0.10-0.08
TowsonCAA0.210.1462.5057.730.050.02
LSUSEC0.130.1462.5059.080.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1223.8125.49-0.09-0.06
YaleIvy0.100.1273.6874.620.050.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1243.4845.21-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.140.1231.5831.01-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.130.1268.0064.090.050.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1229.1733.11-0.07-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1254.1754.090.010.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1265.3864.970.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.090.1252.1751.830.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.130.1241.6739.90-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1242.3144.53-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.120.1248.0048.60-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.1152.1753.720.000.01
George WashingtonA100.080.1175.0071.960.040.05
KansasB120.170.1182.6179.200.110.07
Rhode IslandA100.120.1158.3357.250.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1133.3336.31-0.04-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1134.7834.97-0.05-0.03
USCP120.080.1178.2673.130.050.05
HartfordAE0.120.1124.0024.55-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.120.1175.0072.610.060.05
UMass LowellAE0.120.1137.5037.69-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0046.770.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0941.6739.49-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.140.0913.0416.42-0.11-0.06
George MasonA100.140.0933.3333.63-0.05-0.03
ElonCAA0.090.0950.0050.070.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0950.0048.950.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.130.0975.0075.340.060.04
La SalleA100.100.0919.0520.30-0.06-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.0920.0019.73-0.07-0.05
PurdueB100.090.0980.0077.910.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.1733.75-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
UtahP120.120.0870.8368.520.050.03
VermontAE0.080.0852.0054.860.000.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0631.8232.08-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0658.3358.400.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0654.5552.530.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.68-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0642.8641.34-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0683.3379.820.060.04
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.75-0.04-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0666.6763.780.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0652.1754.130.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0625.0028.15-0.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.8232.68-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0625.0024.93-0.02-0.03
FordhamA100.090.0652.3850.690.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0654.1752.000.010.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0666.6766.770.010.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0672.0071.320.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.090.0645.8339.36-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0677.2773.930.020.03
VirginiaACC0.040.0683.3378.460.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.090.0668.1867.110.030.02
WashingtonP120.060.0662.5060.140.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0666.6763.300.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0683.3381.280.060.04
Air ForceMWC0.040.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0624.0025.68-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.040.0624.0024.92-0.02-0.03
DenverSum0.040.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0659.0961.280.010.01
IUPUISum0.040.0638.4638.50-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0650.0051.280.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0680.0081.160.020.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0658.3358.580.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0660.8759.830.020.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0664.0062.090.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0640.9143.32-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0673.9174.640.020.03
St. BonaventureA100.080.0672.7370.410.040.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0640.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0668.1865.170.030.02
VCUA100.040.0670.8371.050.020.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0660.8762.520.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0631.5832.04-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0630.4332.26-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0682.6177.580.060.03
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0682.6183.030.050.04
Cal PolyBW0.080.0628.5734.11-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0666.6764.780.030.02
ColoradoP120.080.0670.8365.580.030.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0643.4842.40-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0663.6458.760.010.01
StanfordP120.040.0647.6244.06-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.040.0656.5253.400.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.040.0560.8755.980.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0559.0955.160.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0562.5058.940.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0558.3359.970.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.560.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0312.5013.27-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.26-0.05-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0365.2262.370.020.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0387.5086.850.040.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0357.1457.670.010.00
DavidsonA100.040.0361.9058.170.010.00
High PointBSth0.040.0357.1459.870.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.380.030.02
UCFAmer0.040.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
DaytonA100.040.0386.9682.160.030.02
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.690.020.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.53-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0334.7833.02-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0376.1972.370.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0362.5063.450.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0379.1778.290.020.02
Arizona St.P120.040.0354.1751.700.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0340.9138.82-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.450.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0360.8760.440.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0363.6461.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0350.0054.180.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0369.5770.020.020.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.070.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0334.7831.64-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0052.940.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.45-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.770.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0360.8756.270.010.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0336.3638.97-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.560.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.45-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.820.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.9680.420.000.02
St. John'sBE0.040.0325.0023.45-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.100.020.02