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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:194
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19252.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Michigan St. (23.0)B10H59-64L0%0.0
11-16Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA92-53L0%0.0
11-20Providence (22.0)BEA88-51L0%0.0
11-22Northeastern (86.0)CAAN68-44L0%0.0
11-23Binghamton (332.0)AEN70-68W100%0.0
11-29St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH68-85L0%0.0
12-3Penn (254.0)IvyH46-57L0%0.0
12-6The Citadel (327.0)SCA67-60L0%0.0
12-9VMI (286.0)SCH84-66W100%0.0
12-13Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA53-46L0%0.0
12-22Towson (281.0)CAAH61-56W100%0.0
12-31Loyola MD (270.0)PatH70-47W100%0.0
1-3Lafayette (122.0)PatA65-69W100%0.0
1-7Boston University (198.0)PatH64-70L0%0.0
1-10Army (235.0)PatA66-75W100%0.0
1-14Bucknell (136.0)PatA65-63L0%0.0
1-17Colgate (194.0)PatH53-65L0%0.0
1-21Lehigh (175.0)PatA61-47L0%0.0
1-24Holy Cross (200.0)PatA76-65L0%0.0
1-28American (135.0)PatH64-54W100%0.0
1-31Lafayette (122.0)PatH65-74L0%0.0
2-4Boston University (198.0)PatA62-59L0%0.0
2-7Army (235.0)PatH67-59W100%0.0
2-11Bucknell (136.0)PatH51-52L0%0.0
2-14Colgate (194.0)PatA69-70W100%0.0
2-18Lehigh (175.0)PatH53-59L0%0.0
2-22Holy Cross (200.0)PatH84-70W100%0.0
2-25American (135.0)PatA68-49L0%0.0
2-28Loyola MD (270.0)PatA47-57W100%0.0
3-3Army (235.0)PatH56-52W100%0.0
3-5Colgate (194.0)PatA72-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.5126.5137.2437.24-6.76-6.76
ColgatePat5.835.8344.8344.83-0.60-0.60
ArmyPat5.795.7953.8553.850.450.45
AmericanPat4.404.4051.6151.610.140.14
LafayettePat4.374.3762.0762.071.051.05
BucknellPat4.324.3253.3353.330.290.29
Holy CrossPat4.284.2844.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Boston UniversityPat4.284.2837.0437.04-1.11-1.11
LehighPat4.254.2548.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Loyola MDPat4.244.2439.2939.29-0.91-0.91
BinghamtonAE1.901.9017.2417.24-1.25-1.25
VMISC1.791.7933.3333.33-0.60-0.60
St. Francis PANEC1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC1.721.7226.9226.92-0.80-0.80
NortheasternCAA1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
PennIvy1.691.6929.6329.63-0.69-0.69
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
Notre DameACC1.691.6984.8584.851.181.18
Michigan St.B101.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
ProvidenceBE1.661.6665.6265.620.520.52
TowsonCAA1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
ColumbiaIvy0.340.3444.4444.44-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.290.2975.0075.000.140.14
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.230.2394.1294.120.210.21
UMBCAE0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
CornellIvy0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.210.2165.6265.620.060.06
DelawareCAA0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.190.1974.0774.070.090.09
MaristMAAC0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
BrownIvy0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
La SalleA100.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
DukeACC0.180.1887.8887.880.140.14
James MadisonCAA0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
NJITind0.160.1656.0056.000.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
BryantNEC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.140.1410.0010.00-0.11-0.11
WagnerNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
HartfordAE0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
ElonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Ohio St.B100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ButlerBE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00