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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:216.0
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:309
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-6
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14216.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida (55.0)SECH41-59L0%0.0
11-16College of Charleston (135.0)CAAH58-72L0%0.0
11-19USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA55-67W100%0.0
11-25UMBC (335.0)AEA54-75W100%0.0
11-27UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA66-70W100%0.0
11-28Jacksonville (289.0)ASunN71-65W100%0.0
11-29IPFW (71.0)SumN53-75W100%0.0
12-2Penn (283.0)IvyA59-65W100%0.0
12-7Oregon (2.0)P12N47-67L0%0.0
12-12VMI (316.0)SCA62-68W100%0.0
12-14USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH57-66L0%0.0
12-22Furman (167.0)SCH62-49W100%0.0
12-30Bucknell (183.0)PatA88-58L0%0.0
1-2Holy Cross (248.0)PatH65-60W100%0.0
1-6Boston University (196.0)PatA67-83W100%0.0
1-9Colgate (241.0)PatA68-71W100%0.0
1-13Loyola MD (255.0)PatH60-52W100%0.0
1-16Lafayette (329.0)PatH87-61W100%0.0
1-20Lehigh (168.0)PatA64-69W100%0.0
1-27American (231.0)PatH58-63L0%0.0
1-30Holy Cross (248.0)PatA87-80L0%0.0
2-1Army (214.0)PatA50-64W100%0.0
2-3Boston University (196.0)PatH72-83L0%0.0
2-6Colgate (241.0)PatH55-58L0%0.0
2-10Loyola MD (255.0)PatA51-71W100%0.0
2-13Lafayette (329.0)PatA68-74W100%0.0
2-17Lehigh (168.0)PatH74-77L0%0.0
2-20Army (214.0)PatH78-80L0%0.0
2-24American (231.0)PatA72-65L0%0.0
2-27Bucknell (183.0)PatH73-77L0%0.0
3-1Lafayette (329.0)PatH78-70W100%0.0
3-3Lehigh (168.0)PatA65-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.5526.5556.0456.043.213.21
LehighPat5.665.6650.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat5.585.5822.2222.22-3.10-3.10
Holy CrossPat4.294.2941.9441.94-0.69-0.69
AmericanPat4.174.1734.4834.48-1.30-1.30
ArmyPat4.154.1558.6258.620.720.72
Loyola MDPat4.124.1232.1432.14-1.47-1.47
ColgatePat4.124.1240.7440.74-0.76-0.76
Boston UniversityPat4.104.1055.1755.170.420.42
BucknellPat4.094.0951.8551.850.150.15
USC UpstateASun3.183.1823.0823.08-1.71-1.71
JacksonvilleASun1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
UNC GreensboroSC1.751.7539.2939.29-0.37-0.37
FurmanSC1.701.7053.3353.330.110.11
UMBCAE1.671.6722.5822.58-0.91-0.91
VMISC1.671.6723.0823.08-0.90-0.90
PennIvy1.641.6438.4638.46-0.38-0.38
IPFWSum1.621.6273.3373.330.750.75
FloridaSEC1.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
College of CharlestonCAA1.561.5651.7251.720.050.05
OregonP121.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
NJITASun0.320.3253.3353.330.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2842.4242.42-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.250.2580.0080.000.150.15
New HampshireAE0.250.2558.6258.620.040.04
The CitadelSC0.240.2424.1424.14-0.13-0.13
BinghamtonAE0.230.2326.6726.67-0.11-0.11
North FloridaASun0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
AlbanyAE0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
LipscombASun0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
SamfordSC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
CornellIvy0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.190.1977.7877.780.110.11
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
MercerSC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
WoffordSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
YaleIvy0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
SyracuseACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
WashingtonP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01