live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:236.9
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:236
Current SOS:225
Current Record:7-10
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:258
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11143.00.04%
17-12162.60.36%
16-13178.92.74%
15-14196.48.44%
14-15214.817.37%
13-16231.524.57%
12-17248.023.91%
11-18264.214.76%
10-19280.65.79%
9-20296.41.76%
8-21308.30.24%
7-22315.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Ohio St. (72.4)B10H68-78L0%0.0
11-18North Dakota St. (125.7)SumN66-59L0%0.0
11-19High Point (266.1)BSthA69-62L0%0.0
11-20UNC Greensboro (140.5)SCN59-72L0%0.0
11-23UMBC (170.3)AEH78-66W100%0.0
11-26Penn (196.3)IvyH70-68W100%0.0
12-1College of Charleston (73.8)CAAA70-64L0%0.0
12-3Furman (149.8)SCA79-46L0%0.0
12-6Bryant (283.9)NECH76-74W100%0.0
12-9Columbia (226.4)IvyH69-54W100%0.0
12-22Hartford (314.0)AEA63-54L0%0.0
12-30Bucknell (94.1)PatH55-59L0%0.0
1-2Holy Cross (192.8)PatA51-50L0%0.0
1-5Boston University (150.3)PatH53-71L0%0.0
1-8Colgate (308.1)PatH67-55W100%0.0
1-11Loyola MD (191.5)PatA62-75W100%0.0
1-14Lafayette (312.6)PatA51-88W100%0.0
1-18Lehigh (90.8)PatH0-031%-5.6
1-21Army (222.9)PatA0-034%-4.5
1-25American (296.4)PatA0-052%0.6
1-28Holy Cross (192.8)PatH0-060%2.7
2-2Boston University (150.3)PatA0-024%-8.0
2-4Colgate (308.1)PatA0-052%0.7
2-8Loyola MD (191.5)PatH0-066%4.5
2-11Lafayette (312.6)PatH0-087%12.8
2-15Lehigh (90.8)PatA0-014%-11.8
2-18Army (222.9)PatH0-056%1.8
2-22American (296.4)PatH0-073%6.8
2-25Bucknell (94.1)PatA0-017%-10.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.5126.4038.6742.03-6.01-4.21
ColgatePat3.304.4317.6523.30-2.14-2.37
ArmyPat0.464.4341.1844.85-0.08-0.46
LafayettePat3.384.4233.3326.22-1.13-2.10
BucknellPat3.104.4066.6769.701.031.73
Holy CrossPat3.284.4044.4447.44-0.36-0.22
AmericanPat0.344.3923.5329.26-0.18-1.82
Boston UniversityPat3.204.3950.0054.930.000.43
LehighPat0.334.3956.2565.470.041.36
Loyola MDPat3.124.3953.3349.320.21-0.06
ColumbiaIvy3.021.9050.0047.870.00-0.08
PennIvy3.031.8546.1549.88-0.23-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC3.131.8566.6761.861.040.44
HartfordAE3.031.7927.7826.98-1.35-0.82
High PointBSth3.121.7928.5737.74-1.34-0.44
North Dakota St.Sum3.131.7960.0058.580.630.31
FurmanSC2.941.7946.6753.26-0.200.12
UMBCAE3.021.7866.6761.041.010.39
BryantNEC2.941.7223.5336.61-1.56-0.46
College of CharlestonCAA2.941.7276.4769.831.560.68
Ohio St.B102.941.7258.8255.070.520.17
New HampshireAE0.250.3253.3357.140.020.05
PrincetonIvy0.270.3160.0066.160.050.10
BinghamtonAE0.270.3037.5038.14-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.210.2852.9453.520.010.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.340.2736.8448.43-0.09-0.01
MaineAE0.450.2721.0521.89-0.26-0.15
AlbanyAE0.360.2750.0058.130.000.04
CornellIvy0.290.2520.0024.59-0.17-0.13
YaleIvy0.260.2557.1465.270.040.08
UMass LowellAE0.260.2442.1140.69-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.440.2435.2930.56-0.13-0.09
HarvardIvy0.160.2158.3361.490.030.05
DrexelCAA0.370.2135.2935.36-0.11-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.350.2118.7520.55-0.22-0.12
FairfieldMAAC0.270.2150.0050.800.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.2131.5839.38-0.07-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.340.2161.1159.200.080.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.330.2042.1142.60-0.05-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.160.1921.4323.15-0.09-0.10
VillanovaBE0.280.1894.7489.210.250.14
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1816.6721.64-0.12-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1831.2542.02-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.170.1866.6763.280.060.05
SyracuseACC0.250.1757.8952.820.040.01
BrownIvy0.190.1650.0043.310.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.1564.7165.910.030.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.360.1564.7170.660.110.06
DuquesneA100.270.1550.0042.010.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.270.1550.0052.280.000.01
La SalleA100.080.1566.6762.100.030.04
Notre DameACC0.260.1588.8977.880.200.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1437.5045.42-0.04-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.210.1350.0047.560.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.280.1243.7549.94-0.04-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.280.1213.3314.77-0.21-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1226.6727.58-0.00-0.06
CampbellBSth0.080.1246.6745.23-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1275.0074.750.090.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.1275.0076.830.050.06
MercerSC0.090.1235.2944.11-0.03-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1252.9454.850.010.01
SamfordSC0.180.1264.7159.940.050.02
VMISC0.090.1214.2915.94-0.07-0.08
WoffordSC0.090.1226.6739.94-0.04-0.02
VermontAE0.170.1273.6877.320.080.07
NJITASun0.170.1241.1845.41-0.03-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1211.7616.64-0.14-0.08
WagnerNEC0.080.1240.0049.62-0.02-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.270.1238.8939.34-0.06-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.250.1258.8252.990.040.01
MarylandB100.000.1288.2471.860.000.05
MonmouthMAAC0.080.1273.6874.110.040.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.0943.7550.72-0.020.00
WinthropBSth0.190.0973.3373.820.090.04
XavierBE0.090.0972.2267.530.040.03
HowardMEAC0.110.0912.5028.51-0.08-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0912.5033.85-0.07-0.03
HofstraCAA0.190.0944.4445.45-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.170.0927.7830.30-0.08-0.04
RichmondA100.170.0964.7158.500.050.01
VanderbiltSEC0.180.0944.4442.66-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.170.0937.5043.18-0.04-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0933.3330.24-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.160.0950.0047.440.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.0914.2929.37-0.12-0.04
Penn St.B100.080.0961.1150.520.020.00
Miami FLACC0.220.0775.0063.130.110.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0614.2928.33-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.090.0661.1157.840.020.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0668.7569.290.000.02
IUPUISum0.090.0635.2942.44-0.03-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.0626.6725.66-0.05-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0650.0051.390.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.180.0646.1554.02-0.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0617.6527.66-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0637.5043.16-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0657.8957.060.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0633.3333.90-0.03-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.190.0676.4762.130.100.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.060.0014.41-0.18-0.04
CreightonBE0.090.0694.4484.830.080.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0670.5958.350.000.01
UCFAmer0.190.0677.7866.990.100.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0643.7537.62-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0682.3575.750.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0663.1663.680.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0622.2230.92-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0668.4252.460.030.00
OregonP120.000.0688.2482.680.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6762.900.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0652.9450.980.000.00
VirginiaACC0.170.0681.2576.190.110.03
MichiganB100.090.0663.1658.050.020.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0629.4127.58-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.080.0647.0649.73-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0688.2484.340.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0642.8647.01-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.160.0656.2555.630.020.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0678.9569.140.050.02
ButlerBE0.080.0684.2178.350.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0636.8436.59-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0631.5829.24-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0661.1159.260.020.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0663.1657.650.020.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0678.9570.200.050.02
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.400.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0618.7535.76-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0633.3342.17-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0664.7166.950.020.02
RutgersB100.080.0655.5643.040.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0642.1146.85-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0681.2572.840.050.03
WisconsinB100.080.0683.3381.270.050.03
Seton HallBE0.110.0366.6758.200.040.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0377.7870.240.050.01
ClemsonACC0.100.0364.7160.770.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0317.6529.57-0.06-0.01
George MasonA100.110.0364.7156.510.030.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0329.4134.19-0.04-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0361.1157.810.020.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0337.5044.59-0.02-0.00
TempleAmer0.110.0352.6353.230.010.00
UC DavisBW0.090.0352.9454.870.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0352.6348.200.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0364.7158.480.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0327.7829.38-0.04-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0358.8263.680.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0362.5063.040.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0343.7543.61-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0347.3741.50-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0356.2559.190.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.03100.0096.930.080.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0325.0028.48-0.04-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0356.2539.360.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0366.6767.310.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0328.5731.55-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0350.0034.710.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0321.4327.22-0.05-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0361.1153.510.020.00
IndianaB100.000.0366.6763.790.000.01
IowaB100.000.0357.8951.110.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0331.2545.29-0.03-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0355.5660.000.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0326.3227.81-0.04-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0360.0072.720.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0326.6732.18-0.04-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0365.0055.340.020.00
PurdueB100.080.0378.9576.880.050.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0357.8953.010.010.00
UCLAP120.080.0394.7489.340.070.02