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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:321.6
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:293
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-7
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16228.30.03%
12-17246.40.08%
11-18267.20.57%
10-19284.32.23%
9-20297.55.81%
8-21309.112.81%
7-22317.619.43%
6-23325.024.17%
5-24330.919.75%
4-25335.810.95%
3-26339.93.65%
2-27343.40.51%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Michigan St. (26.6)B10H59-64L0%0.0
11-16Notre Dame (69.2)ACCA92-53L0%0.0
11-20Providence (82.2)BEA88-51L0%0.0
11-22Northeastern (134.1)CAAN68-44L0%0.0
11-23Binghamton (342.3)AEN70-68W100%0.0
11-29St. Francis PA (138.5)NECH68-85L0%0.0
12-3Penn (272.2)IvyH46-57L0%0.0
12-6The Citadel (316.3)SCA67-60L0%0.0
12-9VMI (270.6)SCH84-66W100%0.0
12-13Maryland Eastern Shore (259.2)MEACA53-46L0%0.0
12-22Towson (195.8)CAAH0-034%-4.8
12-31Loyola MD (293.5)PatH0-060%3.0
1-3Lafayette (91.6)PatA0-04%-20.1
1-7Boston University (206.3)PatH0-035%-4.4
1-10Army (141.8)PatA0-06%-18.0
1-14Bucknell (256.5)PatA0-021%-9.6
1-17Colgate (185.2)PatH0-025%-7.8
1-21Lehigh (158.6)PatA0-09%-16.2
1-24Holy Cross (158.8)PatA0-010%-15.3
1-28American (96.8)PatH0-018%-10.8
1-31Lafayette (91.6)PatH0-017%-11.3
2-4Boston University (206.3)PatA0-013%-13.2
2-7Army (141.8)PatH0-022%-9.2
2-11Bucknell (256.5)PatH0-047%-0.9
2-14Colgate (185.2)PatA0-08%-16.6
2-18Lehigh (158.6)PatH0-026%-7.4
2-22Holy Cross (158.8)PatH0-029%-6.5
2-25American (96.8)PatA0-05%-19.6
2-28Loyola MD (293.5)PatA0-031%-5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat27.7426.4117.3918.49-18.09-16.64
ArmyPat0.534.4777.7867.480.291.56
Boston UniversityPat0.534.4733.3338.96-0.18-0.99
AmericanPat0.314.4560.0063.380.061.19
ColgatePat0.254.4520.0039.90-0.15-0.90
BucknellPat0.214.4540.0034.00-0.04-1.42
LafayettePat0.314.4475.0067.850.161.59
LehighPat0.314.4442.8649.99-0.04-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.004.4133.3325.49-0.00-2.16
Holy CrossPat0.004.4057.1450.400.000.04
BinghamtonAE5.771.990.0012.44-5.77-1.50
VMISC5.421.8937.5040.38-1.35-0.36
St. Francis PANEC5.211.8742.8661.49-0.740.43
The CitadelSC5.281.850.0027.71-5.28-0.82
NortheasternCAA5.001.8462.5056.151.250.23
PennIvy5.251.8228.5730.41-2.25-0.71
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.311.8136.3642.51-1.45-0.27
Notre DameACC5.701.8190.0070.814.560.75
Michigan St.B105.231.7970.0072.222.090.79
ProvidenceBE5.481.7870.0051.312.190.05
TowsonCAA0.001.7866.6750.810.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3662.5065.190.000.11
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.440.3237.5038.03-0.11-0.08
AlbanyAE0.540.3033.3348.85-0.18-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2450.0058.660.000.04
UMBCAE0.210.2410.0021.05-0.17-0.14
VillanovaBE0.210.23100.0082.310.210.15
HarvardIvy0.280.2185.7172.940.200.10
BrownIvy0.230.2140.0033.85-0.05-0.07
SyracuseACC0.000.2166.6757.600.000.03
CornellIvy0.250.2155.5648.590.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.230.2037.5055.05-0.060.02
NJITind0.000.1836.3640.81-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.590.1810.0018.78-0.47-0.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.1828.5741.30-0.10-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1857.1464.510.000.05
DelawareCAA0.000.170.008.74-0.00-0.14
La SalleA100.000.1750.0049.770.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.1770.0060.810.000.04
WagnerNEC0.310.1514.2933.80-0.22-0.05
HartfordAE0.000.1550.0050.820.000.00
YaleIvy0.230.1570.0064.820.090.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.420.1550.0044.640.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.280.1550.0053.700.000.01
DukeACC0.230.15100.0087.440.230.11
FairfieldMAAC0.280.1444.4439.99-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.420.1344.4451.18-0.050.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1371.4364.070.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.1325.0029.26-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.280.1337.5041.84-0.07-0.02
SamfordSC0.280.1333.3331.37-0.09-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1322.2237.53-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1322.2245.85-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1377.7876.160.000.07
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1350.0061.650.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5747.24-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1225.0040.49-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1227.2737.77-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1237.5045.89-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0039.75-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1222.2240.77-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.1211.1121.17-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.1255.5654.600.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.210.1255.5638.100.02-0.03
RiderMAAC0.540.1245.4552.00-0.050.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0054.270.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6738.970.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.310.1260.0053.790.060.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1237.5051.47-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC1.150.1250.0037.400.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.1280.0072.470.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.480.1166.6741.940.16-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0037.61-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1137.5048.14-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1177.7878.200.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.1172.7365.950.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1157.1456.560.000.01
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.690.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.420.0957.1461.280.060.02
West VirginiaB120.280.0990.0066.760.220.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6752.270.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0922.2231.12-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0955.5640.200.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0034.02-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.230.0988.8969.540.180.03
KentuckySEC0.230.09100.0094.670.230.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0950.0056.370.000.01
MarylandB100.280.0990.9167.700.230.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0940.0046.88-0.06-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0940.0050.16-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0990.0084.620.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.0990.9154.060.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0038.030.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.080.0014.70-0.23-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.0866.6759.320.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0820.0037.19-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.230.0855.5647.640.03-0.00
MassachusettsA100.510.0860.0055.530.100.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.44-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.890.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.27-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0660.0037.230.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.70-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0688.8955.730.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0059.880.000.01
DuquesneA100.310.0628.5731.25-0.13-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0660.0034.930.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.530.0622.2237.72-0.29-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0064.990.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.80-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0670.0066.610.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.19-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.71-0.00-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.520.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.400.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.600.000.00
DetroitHorz0.210.0644.4449.46-0.02-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.090.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0044.01-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.470.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.760.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.460.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.690.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.0650.0041.530.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8963.530.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.28-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5064.520.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.020.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.310.0377.7869.420.170.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2931.11-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.310.0390.0081.760.250.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.600.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6755.660.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.0320.0038.33-0.14-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.280.0342.8638.02-0.04-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.230.030.0012.02-0.23-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.0371.4363.540.100.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.28-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.210.0328.5728.28-0.09-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.230.030.008.81-0.23-0.02
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.0371.4359.600.100.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.890.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.830.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.470.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.030.0023.23-0.21-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.0344.4470.22-0.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.060.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0033.280.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.230.0330.0032.16-0.09-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.230.0362.5073.580.060.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4357.420.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.98-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.710.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.96-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.210.0370.0071.520.080.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.280.0362.5055.120.070.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.430.000.02