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Through games of Nov 19, 2014.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:248.8
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:176
Current SOS:187
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-863.00.01%
19-978.30.03%
18-10100.00.10%
17-11124.50.43%
16-12140.11.30%
15-13161.92.85%
14-14185.05.82%
13-15204.89.90%
12-16225.213.90%
11-17244.617.19%
10-18262.616.52%
9-19279.913.70%
8-20295.29.52%
7-21308.15.03%
6-22319.42.40%
5-23327.60.96%
4-24334.60.28%
3-25339.50.04%
2-26348.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Michigan St. (30.5)B10H59-64L0%0.0
11-16Notre Dame (48.1)ACCA92-53L0%0.0
11-20Providence (66.9)BEA0-09%-16.1
11-22Northeastern (68.1)CAAN0-020%-10.2
11-29St. Francis PA (227.6)NECH0-058%2.5
12-3Penn (311.2)IvyH0-073%7.2
12-6The Citadel (321.7)SCA0-059%2.7
12-9VMI (250.0)SCH0-065%4.7
12-13Maryland Eastern Shore (318.9)MEACA0-061%3.4
12-22Towson (221.0)CAAH0-058%2.5
12-31Loyola MD (225.2)PatH0-058%2.6
1-3Lafayette (118.7)PatA0-018%-11.1
1-7Boston University (140.2)PatH0-043%-2.2
1-10Army (149.8)PatA0-024%-8.5
1-14Bucknell (172.7)PatA0-027%-7.2
1-17Colgate (214.1)PatH0-056%1.8
1-21Lehigh (216.0)PatA0-032%-5.7
1-24Holy Cross (107.1)PatA0-019%-10.6
1-28American (120.1)PatH0-040%-3.0
1-31Lafayette (118.7)PatH0-037%-3.9
2-4Boston University (140.2)PatA0-022%-9.4
2-7Army (149.8)PatH0-046%-1.3
2-11Bucknell (172.7)PatH0-050%-0.0
2-14Colgate (214.1)PatA0-033%-5.4
2-18Lehigh (216.0)PatH0-055%1.5
2-22Holy Cross (107.1)PatH0-039%-3.5
2-25American (120.1)PatA0-020%-10.2
2-28Loyola MD (225.2)PatA0-035%-4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat35.4226.440.0035.88-35.42-7.46
AmericanPat0.004.6150.0053.210.000.30
ArmyPat0.004.60100.0057.680.000.71
LafayettePat0.004.6066.6762.840.001.18
LehighPat0.004.600.0038.00-0.00-1.10
Boston UniversityPat0.004.6050.0053.740.000.34
ColgatePat0.004.580.0037.60-0.00-1.14
BucknellPat0.004.5850.0043.680.00-0.58
Loyola MDPat0.004.5866.6739.330.00-0.98
Holy CrossPat0.004.57100.0060.290.000.94
VMISC0.001.9550.0044.960.00-0.20
St. Francis PANEC0.001.940.0048.63-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.001.920.0027.81-0.00-0.85
NortheasternCAA0.001.91100.0068.790.000.72
PennIvy0.001.850.0024.95-0.00-0.93
Michigan St.B1025.001.850.0068.81-25.000.70
Notre DameACC25.001.85100.0071.9525.000.81
TowsonCAA0.001.8550.0044.640.00-0.20
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.8233.3330.91-0.00-0.69
ProvidenceBE0.001.81100.0055.080.000.18
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3750.0060.230.000.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.310.0033.68-0.00-0.10
BinghamtonAE4.170.280.0036.33-4.17-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.25100.0042.320.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.2550.0061.920.000.06
VillanovaBE0.000.24100.0070.240.000.10
HarvardIvy0.000.220.0066.63-0.000.07
BrownIvy0.000.2233.3340.52-0.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.22100.0066.300.000.07
NJITind0.000.1933.3329.39-0.00-0.08
MaristMAAC0.000.190.0042.30-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1950.0035.160.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.1866.6745.290.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.180.0035.56-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.180.0042.59-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.18100.0057.220.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.1866.6743.800.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.160.0042.02-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.160.0054.42-0.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1550.0054.380.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1550.0042.940.00-0.02
DukeACC6.250.15100.0086.246.250.11
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1550.0039.970.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.1550.0063.480.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.130.0056.19-0.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.130.0048.52-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.1350.0024.640.00-0.07
MercerSC0.000.1350.0051.620.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.1333.3331.90-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0037.28-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0046.05-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1350.0066.170.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.13100.0057.900.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.130.0049.65-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.130.0043.78-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1333.3351.13-0.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1350.0055.280.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1333.3337.80-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.130.0055.40-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0050.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.13100.0044.510.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.12100.0055.300.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.120.0036.73-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.12100.0070.350.000.05
SienaMAAC0.000.1233.3359.12-0.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1250.0057.380.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0040.670.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0057.520.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0062.310.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0058.150.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1250.0037.260.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1250.0061.660.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1250.0048.000.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.120.0041.49-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0044.100.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.10100.0065.510.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0966.6741.760.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.09100.0058.110.000.02
MarylandB100.000.09100.0063.170.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0933.3334.65-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0087.640.000.07
Penn St.B100.000.09100.0049.040.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0950.0043.320.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0966.6746.880.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0058.77-0.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0040.35-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC4.170.090.0028.57-4.17-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0066.640.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.09100.0062.520.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0035.500.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.89-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.06100.0067.960.000.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0062.370.000.02
MaineAE0.000.060.0023.08-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0035.21-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.060.0029.73-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0650.0037.740.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0650.0034.720.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.54-0.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0050.40-0.000.00
IndianaB100.000.06100.0058.740.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0046.590.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0046.310.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0650.0063.090.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0046.500.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.06100.0052.910.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.24-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0049.82-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0037.97-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0068.290.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0058.20-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0032.66-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0050.350.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0056.280.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.720.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0056.060.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0067.820.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.080.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.470.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0069.810.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.03100.0070.620.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0066.070.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.030.0028.19-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0069.850.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.030.0051.34-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0333.3337.15-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.090.000.00
IowaB100.000.03100.0068.180.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0064.150.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0053.420.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0035.06-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.95-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0083.870.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0054.510.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.030.0034.60-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0020.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.030.0033.46-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.20-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.80-0.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0071.150.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.480.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0068.320.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.94-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.920.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.590.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0076.610.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0057.050.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.45-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.370.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0068.450.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0060.100.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.030.0039.06-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0054.620.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0068.190.000.01