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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:321.0
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:303
Current SOS:303
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21321.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Towson (95.0)CAAA72-45L0%0.0
11-11St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA60-57L0%0.0
11-16Binghamton (325.0)AEA50-68W100%0.0
11-19Virginia (8.0)ACCA67-42L0%0.0
11-23UMBC (327.0)AEH73-58W100%0.0
11-26Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH67-59W100%0.0
12-4The Citadel (345.0)SCH79-74W100%0.0
12-14Bryant (177.0)NECA90-80L0%0.0
12-21Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA72-65L0%0.0
12-30UMBC (327.0)AEA63-48L0%0.0
1-2Loyola MD (274.0)PatA63-57L0%0.0
1-5Lafayette (258.0)PatH79-71W100%0.0
1-7Boston University (84.0)PatA55-32L0%0.0
1-11Army (235.0)PatH55-60L0%0.0
1-15Bucknell (167.0)PatH62-61W100%0.0
1-18Colgate (256.0)PatA63-41L0%0.0
1-22Lehigh (236.0)PatH66-68L0%0.0
1-25Holy Cross (127.0)PatH52-67L0%0.0
1-29American (118.0)PatA74-52L0%0.0
2-1Lafayette (258.0)PatA72-54L0%0.0
2-5Boston University (84.0)PatH48-61L0%0.0
2-8Army (235.0)PatA57-79W100%0.0
2-12Bucknell (167.0)PatA78-57L0%0.0
2-15Colgate (256.0)PatH71-61W100%0.0
2-19Lehigh (236.0)PatA72-65L0%0.0
2-23Holy Cross (127.0)PatA74-57L0%0.0
2-26American (118.0)PatH55-64L0%0.0
3-1Loyola MD (274.0)PatH65-67L0%0.0
3-3Colgate (256.0)PatA57-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.4926.4926.8926.89-12.24-12.24
ColgatePat6.176.1737.0437.04-1.60-1.60
AmericanPat4.714.7160.0060.000.940.94
Boston UniversityPat4.584.5868.7568.751.721.72
LehighPat4.574.5740.0040.00-0.91-0.91
Loyola MDPat4.544.5429.6329.63-1.85-1.85
ArmyPat4.534.5346.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Holy CrossPat4.514.5156.6756.670.600.60
LafayettePat4.504.5032.1432.14-1.61-1.61
BucknellPat4.484.4853.5753.570.320.32
UMBCAE3.733.7325.9325.93-1.80-1.80
St. Francis PANEC2.032.0330.0030.00-0.81-0.81
BinghamtonAE2.022.0224.1424.14-1.04-1.04
BryantNEC1.861.8653.3353.330.120.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.841.8418.5218.52-1.16-1.16
TowsonCAA1.811.8166.6766.670.600.60
The CitadelSC1.811.8114.2914.29-1.29-1.29
Northern KentuckyASun1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
VirginiaACC1.721.7281.8281.821.101.10
AlbanyAE0.430.4356.2556.250.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.400.4050.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.310.3151.5251.520.010.01
New HampshireAE0.290.2917.2417.24-0.19-0.19
ColumbiaIvy0.290.2960.0060.000.060.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.2516.1316.13-0.17-0.17
Stony BrookAE0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
MaineAE0.230.2317.8617.86-0.15-0.15
NJITind0.230.2336.0036.00-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
CornellIvy0.200.203.703.70-0.19-0.19
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
FordhamA100.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
WagnerNEC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
SyracuseACC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Notre DameACC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.100.10
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
George WashingtonA100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0987.5087.500.060.06
YaleIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01