Navy

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	318.8
Current RPI:	323
Expected SOS:	203
Current SOS:	222
Current Record:	2-19
Expected Record:	4-23
Current Conf Record:	0-8
Expected Conf Record:	2-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.03%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-12
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	318
Expected OOC SOS:	245

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-20	286.8	0.09%
6-21	296.0	1.78%
5-22	305.8	12.93%
4-23	315.7	35.91%
3-24	323.8	37.17%
2-25	329.8	12.11%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Longwood (311.5)	ind	A	70-78	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	65-56	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	78-54	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	H	55-57	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	69-62	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	64-56	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	A	59-46	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Elon (223.5)	SC	A	51-48	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	H	67-69	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	84-59	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	58-42	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	56-65	L	0%	0.0
1-1	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	65-71	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	63-65	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	62-75	L	0%	0.0
1-18	American (150.9)	Pat	H	60-67	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	65-54	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	71-60	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	51-66	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	62-41	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	0-0		44%	-1.6
2-11	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	0-0		26%	-7.2
2-15	American (150.9)	Pat	A	0-0		11%	-13.4
2-18	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	H	0-0		63%	3.8
2-22	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	0-0		9%	-14.7
2-25	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	0-0		3%	-20.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Navy	Pat	26.22	26.32	10.10	12.92	-20.92	-19.52
American	Pat	2.96	4.58	63.64	61.52	0.81	1.05
Lehigh	Pat	2.91	4.54	72.73	73.38	1.32	2.13
Army	Pat	2.91	4.54	38.10	38.22	-0.69	-1.07
Colgate	Pat	2.90	4.54	27.27	26.63	-1.32	-2.12
Lafayette	Pat	5.12	4.51	38.10	38.72	-1.22	-1.02
Bucknell	Pat	2.80	4.48	72.73	73.26	1.27	2.08
Holy Cross	Pat	2.80	4.47	38.10	39.29	-0.67	-0.96
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.64	2.11	54.55	55.62	0.24	0.24
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.60	2.08	15.79	17.00	-1.78	-1.37
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.63	2.07	27.27	29.63	-1.20	-0.84
Monmouth	NEC	2.64	2.04	25.00	26.54	-1.32	-0.96
Albany	AE	2.59	2.01	58.33	59.10	0.43	0.37
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.44	1.95	66.67	68.59	0.81	0.73
Longwood	ind	2.44	1.95	31.58	28.92	-0.90	-0.82
Presbyterian	BSth	2.44	1.92	38.10	41.57	-0.58	-0.32
Siena	MAAC	2.48	1.91	42.86	43.60	-0.35	-0.24
Tulane	CUSA	2.44	1.88	60.00	57.05	0.49	0.27
Missouri	B12	2.43	1.88	90.91	86.75	1.99	1.38
Mercer	ASun	2.43	1.88	69.57	70.66	0.95	0.78
Elon	SC	2.38	1.85	47.37	45.57	-0.13	-0.16
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.51	0.47	21.74	22.76	-0.29	-0.26
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.51	0.44	56.52	55.95	0.07	0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.38	0.36	14.29	17.17	-0.27	-0.24
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.37	0.35	8.70	12.13	-0.30	-0.26
Columbia	Ivy	0.32	0.29	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.31	0.29	8.33	10.86	-0.26	-0.23
Binghamton	AE	0.26	0.28	0.00	4.02	-0.26	-0.26
Long Island	NEC	0.36	0.28	70.83	71.05	0.15	0.12
Wagner	NEC	0.25	0.28	82.61	84.57	0.17	0.20
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.27	0.26	33.33	38.38	-0.09	-0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.21	0.26	34.78	33.43	-0.06	-0.09
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.36	0.26	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.22	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.20	0.22	36.84	41.45	-0.05	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.17	0.20	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.27	0.19	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.21	0.19	70.83	68.82	0.09	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.26	0.19	69.57	65.87	0.10	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.21	0.19	95.83	92.01	0.19	0.16
Hartford	AE	0.25	0.19	17.39	20.97	-0.16	-0.11
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.19	35.00	38.58	-0.05	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.21	0.19	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.16	0.16	72.22	63.19	0.07	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.22	0.16	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.17	0.16	18.18	22.22	-0.11	-0.09
Fairfield	MAAC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.21	0.16	77.27	73.45	0.12	0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.16	27.27	23.80	-0.09	-0.08
Niagara	MAAC	0.21	0.16	37.50	41.54	-0.05	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.16	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.16	68.00	70.03	0.07	0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.17	0.13	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.17	0.13	9.52	11.44	-0.14	-0.10
Chattanooga	SC	0.17	0.13	27.27	35.02	-0.08	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.13	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.17	0.13	35.29	39.85	-0.05	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.13	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.13	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.16	0.13	21.74	24.58	-0.09	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.10	0.13	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.15	0.12	76.00	72.50	0.08	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.12	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.15	0.12	13.64	16.35	-0.11	-0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.12	37.50	38.52	-0.04	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.15	0.12	60.00	62.49	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.12	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.10	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	10.00	14.93	-0.09	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.10	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.11	0.10	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.10	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.17	0.10	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.10	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.05
Furman	SC	0.16	0.10	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.10	17.39	19.81	-0.04	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.10	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.10	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.16	0.10	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	90.48	87.91	0.08	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.10	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.10	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.10	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.10	79.17	75.98	0.09	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.10	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.10	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.08	-0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.09	8.70	11.67	-0.08	-0.07
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.07	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.07	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.07	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.07	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.07	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.07	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.07	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.05	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.07	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.07	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.07	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.07	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.07	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.07	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.07	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.07	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.07	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.07	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.06	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.06	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.02
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.00	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.00	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.00	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00