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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Navy

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:219.9
Current RPI:234
Expected SOS:319
Current SOS:338
Current Record:12-8
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:151
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9151.30.21%
20-10169.21.73%
19-11184.27.33%
18-12199.116.13%
17-13213.825.51%
16-14228.025.39%
15-15242.016.25%
14-16256.16.11%
13-17271.01.23%
12-18283.50.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Navy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Pittsburgh (188.1)ACCH71-62W100%0.0
11-12Miami FL (25.9)ACCA89-55L0%0.0
11-15Penn (173.5)IvyA66-45L0%0.0
11-18Bryant (330.9)NECA71-79W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis NY (283.4)NECN85-76W100%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (149.9)ASunA70-54L0%0.0
11-26Denver (272.4)SumN71-79W100%0.0
12-1Delaware (225.4)CAAH82-76W100%0.0
12-3Morgan St. (310.3)MEACH66-59W100%0.0
12-6Coppin St. (342.7)MEACA53-70W100%0.0
12-10Columbia (278.4)IvyA68-73W100%0.0
12-21Lipscomb (132.1)ASunH64-73L0%0.0
12-29Loyola MD (314.9)PatA72-63L0%0.0
1-2Lehigh (237.6)PatH78-66W100%0.0
1-5American (314.5)PatH70-64W100%0.0
1-8Colgate (220.6)PatA70-62L0%0.0
1-11Holy Cross (294.7)PatH61-56W100%0.0
1-14Army (190.3)PatH62-64L0%0.0
1-17Lafayette (311.5)PatA72-75W100%0.0
1-20Boston University (198.5)PatH68-75L0%0.0
1-24Bucknell (86.6)PatH0-029%-6.0
1-27Lehigh (237.6)PatA0-037%-3.7
1-31American (314.5)PatA0-059%2.6
2-4Colgate (220.6)PatH0-058%2.3
2-7Holy Cross (294.7)PatA0-052%0.5
2-10Army (190.3)PatA0-030%-5.7
2-14Lafayette (311.5)PatH0-073%7.0
2-17Boston University (198.5)PatA0-031%-5.3
2-21Bucknell (86.6)PatA0-013%-12.4
2-24Loyola MD (314.9)PatH0-071%6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Navy's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Navy's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Navy.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
NavyPat26.3626.4060.8757.085.733.74
ArmyPat3.064.3358.8258.560.540.74
ColgatePat2.994.3047.0649.50-0.18-0.04
LafayettePat2.984.2923.5328.56-1.58-1.84
Boston UniversityPat2.974.2947.0650.90-0.170.08
LehighPat2.974.2941.1845.76-0.52-0.36
BucknellPat0.544.2861.9067.260.131.48
AmericanPat2.984.2726.3226.45-1.41-2.01
Holy CrossPat2.984.2731.5833.21-1.10-1.43
Loyola MDPat2.904.2717.6525.91-1.88-2.06
ColumbiaIvy2.711.8421.4333.53-1.55-0.61
St. Francis NYNEC2.761.8435.2936.51-0.81-0.50
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.711.7955.5665.020.300.54
PennIvy2.651.7962.5061.360.660.41
PittsburghACC2.641.7842.1131.91-0.42-0.64
Miami FLACC2.631.7876.4769.391.390.69
Coppin St.MEAC2.571.7310.0018.46-2.06-1.09
BryantNEC2.571.7310.0017.69-2.06-1.12
DenverSum2.641.7335.2937.93-0.78-0.42
LipscombASun2.571.7350.0057.750.000.27
Morgan St.MEAC2.561.7235.2941.90-0.75-0.28
DelawareCAA2.501.6750.0044.540.00-0.18
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.520.3742.1144.98-0.08-0.04
CornellIvy0.360.2733.3333.23-0.12-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.370.2752.9460.230.020.05
NJITASun0.200.2438.8942.58-0.05-0.04
HarvardIvy0.130.2437.5046.70-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.280.2421.0521.99-0.16-0.13
YaleIvy0.190.2441.1847.61-0.03-0.01
AlbanyAE0.340.2471.4370.250.150.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.330.2330.0033.48-0.13-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.260.2352.9459.250.020.04
SienaMAAC0.260.2328.5729.93-0.11-0.09
BinghamtonAE0.280.2142.1139.93-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.130.2121.4326.34-0.07-0.10
TowsonCAA0.270.2063.1665.980.070.07
New HampshireAE0.250.2033.3340.10-0.08-0.04
BrownIvy0.130.1850.0045.130.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.280.1852.6347.380.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.200.1830.0030.97-0.08-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1765.0054.600.050.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.270.170.008.42-0.27-0.14
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.1723.5332.57-0.03-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.140.1763.1663.210.040.05
WagnerNEC0.190.1764.7164.560.060.05
La SalleA100.210.1740.0042.69-0.04-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.140.1611.1118.00-0.11-0.10
North FloridaASun0.140.1531.5835.15-0.05-0.04
UMBCAE0.200.1555.5655.550.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.1450.0052.500.000.01
HowardMEAC0.140.1410.5326.29-0.11-0.07
West VirginiaB120.250.1480.0076.040.150.07
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1427.7841.03-0.06-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.1473.6869.660.070.06
SyracuseACC0.130.1468.4261.280.050.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1452.3848.530.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.1233.3333.76-0.02-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1216.6724.90-0.09-0.06
StetsonASun0.140.1233.3336.93-0.05-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.1242.8635.22-0.01-0.04
VillanovaBE0.230.1294.7490.310.200.10
UMass LowellAE0.140.1233.3333.87-0.05-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.200.1250.0050.860.000.00
ElonCAA0.070.1252.6351.090.000.00
HofstraCAA0.140.1257.8959.500.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1210.0019.62-0.16-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1215.0020.28-0.09-0.07
VirginiaACC0.070.1194.7486.110.060.08
Wake ForestACC0.070.1142.1140.46-0.01-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.1140.0042.51-0.01-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1157.1460.410.020.02
Notre DameACC0.140.1163.1661.000.040.02
LouisvilleACC0.120.1178.9569.820.070.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1176.1972.570.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.140.0930.0032.54-0.05-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.140.0937.5031.78-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.150.0910.5314.83-0.12-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.0935.0031.82-0.05-0.03
George MasonA100.140.0945.0041.29-0.01-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.0942.1146.09-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0931.5836.43-0.05-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.140.0938.8944.07-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.0972.2274.730.090.04
Rhode IslandA100.130.0983.3381.450.090.05
MemphisAmer0.130.0965.0058.540.040.01
Penn St.B100.210.0961.9055.820.050.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0936.8445.19-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0825.0043.180.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0826.3230.450.00-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0831.5834.35-0.02-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0051.640.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0870.0060.400.030.02
DukeACC0.190.0889.4785.240.150.06
Georgia TechACC0.190.0852.6343.040.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0865.0056.350.040.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0652.9452.670.010.00
BelmontOVC0.150.0671.4374.670.060.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.680.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0625.0028.02-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.400.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.970.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.150.0616.6716.15-0.10-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.040.010.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
USCP120.070.0671.4368.300.030.02
George WashingtonA100.140.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0617.6534.76-0.04-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.0655.5657.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.0647.0654.68-0.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.630.020.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.0064.130.010.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.25-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0675.0065.320.030.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0668.4260.530.020.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.0622.2227.31-0.07-0.03
VMISC0.060.0625.0024.14-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0664.7160.010.020.01
DuquesneA100.130.0670.0058.090.050.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0584.2173.180.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0568.4264.160.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0561.1158.710.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0566.6763.130.000.01
RutgersB100.120.0555.0046.650.01-0.00
VCUA100.000.0560.0059.710.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0575.0077.870.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4259.020.030.01
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.650.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.71-0.04-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.130.010.00
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.390.060.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.05-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.46-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.220.010.00
TexasB120.070.0365.0058.600.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.790.020.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.29-0.04-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.220.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.67-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.03-0.03-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.010.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.380.040.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.890.020.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.940.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0341.1839.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.670.020.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.76-0.04-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.610.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7564.010.030.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.610.020.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.250.050.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0368.4254.080.020.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0366.6755.900.020.00
HartfordAE0.060.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0343.7549.22-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0328.5731.24-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.030.01
OhioMAC0.060.0347.0648.43-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0368.4254.040.020.00
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.810.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0370.5969.630.030.01