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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:299.0
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:171
Current Record:8-24
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-8
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:40



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-24299.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10College of Charleston (57.0)CAAA68-60L0%0.0
11-13Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)ASunH53-86L0%0.0
11-17Lehigh (214.0)PatA91-90L0%0.0
11-20Bucknell (80.0)PatA115-92L0%0.0
11-25Hofstra (121.0)CAAH85-76W100%0.0
11-29St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H55-75L0%0.0
12-2Robert Morris (196.0)NECH76-74W100%0.0
12-6Louisville (38.0)ACCA86-60L0%0.0
12-9Albany (142.0)AEH69-74L0%0.0
12-11Vermont (60.0)AEA81-57L0%0.0
12-17Bryant (341.0)NECA68-87W100%0.0
12-20Memphis (106.0)AmerA70-66L0%0.0
12-22Holy Cross (265.0)PatH71-65W100%0.0
12-29Marist (324.0)MAACA63-58L0%0.0
1-1Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH70-71L0%0.0
1-5Niagara (163.0)MAACH76-84L0%0.0
1-7Canisius (124.0)MAACH65-62W100%0.0
1-11Iona (107.0)MAACA71-69L0%0.0
1-13Manhattan (228.0)MAACA72-61L0%0.0
1-18Marist (324.0)MAACH68-65W100%0.0
1-21Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA76-69L0%0.0
1-25Monmouth (199.0)MAACA67-56L0%0.0
1-29Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACH59-57W100%0.0
2-2Manhattan (228.0)MAACH47-51L0%0.0
2-5Fairfield (180.0)MAACA78-65L0%0.0
2-8Canisius (124.0)MAACA89-65L0%0.0
2-12Iona (107.0)MAACH82-78W100%0.0
2-15Rider (69.0)MAACA97-71L0%0.0
2-18Monmouth (199.0)MAACH89-93L0%0.0
2-21Fairfield (180.0)MAACH69-70L0%0.0
2-25Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACA65-48L0%0.0
3-1Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH58-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC26.2726.2720.5920.59-15.45-15.45
QuinnipiacMAAC5.505.5030.0030.00-2.20-2.20
FairfieldMAAC4.054.0548.3948.39-0.13-0.13
IonaMAAC4.034.0361.2961.290.910.91
CanisiusMAAC4.004.0066.6766.671.331.33
MonmouthMAAC3.983.9831.0331.03-1.51-1.51
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.983.9843.3343.33-0.53-0.53
ManhattanMAAC3.953.9541.3841.38-0.68-0.68
MaristMAAC3.933.9317.2417.24-2.57-2.57
RiderMAAC2.512.5170.0070.001.011.01
NiagaraMAAC2.492.4958.0658.060.400.40
AlbanyAE1.851.8566.6766.670.620.62
Holy CrossPat1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
LehighPat1.761.7650.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat1.741.7472.7372.730.790.79
HofstraCAA1.741.7462.0762.070.420.42
VermontAE1.731.7378.1278.120.970.97
Robert MorrisNEC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC1.681.6810.0010.00-1.35-1.35
St. BonaventureA101.661.6677.4277.420.910.91
MemphisAmer1.641.6460.6160.610.350.35
LouisvilleACC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6176.6776.670.860.86
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
ArmyPat0.300.3041.3841.38-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.270.2758.0658.060.040.04
LafayettePat0.270.2730.0030.00-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA0.250.2537.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
NavyPat0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
HartfordAE0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.190.1970.0070.000.080.08
DartmouthIvy0.190.1923.0823.08-0.10-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
MaineAE0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
UMass LowellAE0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.150.1539.3939.39-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
La SalleA100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
TulsaAmer0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1026.9226.92-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00