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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:196
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.74%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:267



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12158.50.23%
16-13177.72.54%
15-14195.310.82%
14-15212.125.78%
13-16229.333.42%
12-17247.620.32%
11-18265.36.30%
10-19279.60.58%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Navy (318.8)PatH65-56W100%0.0
11-19Mount St. Mary's (291.1)NECA53-65W100%0.0
11-21St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10H58-64L0%0.0
11-23Georgia Tech (164.1)ACCA72-44L0%0.0
11-26Vermont (173.1)AEA64-62L0%0.0
12-1St. Peter's (280.4)MAACA51-44L0%0.0
12-3Loyola MD (83.9)MAACH59-66L0%0.0
12-5Albany (208.3)AEH64-60W100%0.0
12-9Massachusetts (76.4)A10N82-78L0%0.0
12-12Fordham (243.2)A10H59-74L0%0.0
12-22Princeton (117.6)IvyH63-59W100%0.0
12-28Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBA60-67W100%0.0
1-3Iona (46.0)MAACN95-59L0%0.0
1-6Fairfield (138.4)MAACH73-60W100%0.0
1-8Niagara (208.7)MAACH72-60W100%0.0
1-12Rider (213.8)MAACH83-79W100%0.0
1-14Manhattan (115.3)MAACA72-53L0%0.0
1-19Loyola MD (83.9)MAACA66-55L0%0.0
1-23Iona (46.0)MAACH65-62W100%0.0
1-27Marist (276.6)MAACH66-55W100%0.0
1-29Rider (213.8)MAACA83-72L0%0.0
2-3St. Peter's (280.4)MAACH58-63L0%0.0
2-5Fairfield (138.4)MAACA0-017%-10.2
2-9Niagara (208.7)MAACA0-036%-4.0
2-11Canisius (322.0)MAACA0-066%4.5
2-14Manhattan (115.3)MAACH0-031%-5.3
2-18Hofstra (239.2)CAAA0-029%-6.1
2-23Marist (276.6)MAACA0-056%1.6
2-26Canisius (322.0)MAACH0-085%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC26.4926.3640.4344.11-5.07-3.11
NiagaraMAAC3.074.4339.1342.19-0.67-0.69
RiderMAAC5.244.4336.3637.72-1.43-1.09
ManhattanMAAC3.154.4366.6768.021.051.60
Loyola MDMAAC5.184.4375.0071.492.591.90
IonaMAAC5.174.4381.8282.253.292.86
CanisiusMAAC1.044.4017.3919.46-0.68-2.69
St. Peter'sMAAC5.134.3714.2919.20-3.66-2.69
MaristMAAC2.994.3436.3634.27-0.82-1.36
FairfieldMAAC2.854.3157.1455.270.410.45
St. BonaventureA102.481.9957.8957.550.390.30
VermontAE2.461.9558.3361.240.410.44
FordhamA102.471.9038.1032.16-0.59-0.68
AlbanyAE2.421.9062.5062.440.610.47
HofstraCAA0.191.8732.0034.20-0.07-0.59
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.481.8427.2729.63-1.13-0.75
MassachusettsA102.321.7872.7367.501.060.62
NavyPat2.371.7810.0013.69-1.89-1.29
PrincetonIvy2.371.7850.0054.820.000.17
Georgia TechACC2.321.7536.3640.13-0.63-0.35
Florida AtlanticSB2.271.7538.1041.19-0.54-0.31
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.380.3413.6416.35-0.28-0.23
BinghamtonAE0.290.340.004.02-0.29-0.31
HartfordAE0.330.3117.3920.97-0.21-0.18
New HampshireAE0.340.2935.0038.58-0.10-0.07
DrexelCAA0.250.2679.1778.100.150.14
BuffaloMAC0.260.2368.4266.450.100.08
QuinnipiacNEC0.300.2356.5257.150.040.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.250.2354.5556.840.020.03
Long IslandNEC0.340.2370.8371.050.140.10
BucknellPat0.270.2173.9175.000.130.11
ColgatePat0.200.2130.4329.50-0.08-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.160.2120.8320.60-0.09-0.12
MonmouthNEC0.300.2028.0028.91-0.13-0.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.2062.5062.490.060.05
Boston UniversityAE0.140.2048.0051.88-0.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1855.0054.800.020.02
La SalleA100.140.1770.8368.820.060.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.178.7012.13-0.20-0.13
MarylandACC0.240.1759.0950.820.040.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.1740.0040.18-0.02-0.03
MaineAE0.090.1750.0049.730.00-0.00
George MasonCAA0.140.1776.0072.500.070.08
Stony BrookAE0.230.1766.6768.050.080.06
LehighPat0.200.1573.9174.910.100.08
HarvardIvy0.150.1590.4887.910.120.11
DaytonA100.110.1560.8760.960.020.03
George WashingtonA100.260.1534.7832.08-0.08-0.05
RichmondA100.250.1550.0048.490.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.200.1569.5761.310.080.03
BrownIvy0.150.1527.2723.80-0.07-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1445.4545.70-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.1447.8348.56-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.240.1468.0070.030.090.06
TowsonCAA0.140.144.005.26-0.13-0.13
AmericanPat0.160.1265.2263.790.050.03
ArmyPat0.100.1240.9141.72-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.110.1240.9142.05-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.160.1236.8441.45-0.04-0.02
DuquesneA100.110.1259.0956.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1270.8364.420.070.03
TempleA100.050.1277.2775.060.030.06
KentuckySEC0.150.1295.8392.570.140.10
South DakotaSum0.000.1226.3228.83-0.00-0.05
South FloridaBE0.150.1254.5548.600.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.1282.6184.570.040.08
DartmouthIvy0.090.1214.2917.17-0.06-0.08
St. LouisA100.150.1277.2777.670.080.06
Wake ForestACC0.100.1247.8343.66-0.00-0.01
MercerASun0.150.1270.8371.640.060.05
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1221.7422.76-0.09-0.06
Old DominionCAA0.100.1260.0058.290.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1256.5255.950.020.01
SyracuseBE0.140.1195.8392.010.130.10
NC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1139.1336.10-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.170.0943.4842.95-0.02-0.01
ElonSC0.160.0950.0047.590.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.050.0930.0027.84-0.02-0.04
YaleIvy0.110.0972.2263.190.050.02
CharlotteA100.100.0950.0049.450.00-0.00
XavierA100.110.0965.2263.740.030.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0919.0521.29-0.03-0.05
DenverSB0.090.0970.8372.230.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.160.0972.7371.710.070.04
Miami FLACC0.150.0965.0060.020.050.02
MissouriB120.100.0991.3087.180.080.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0930.4326.44-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0912.5013.44-0.07-0.06
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.0833.3338.38-0.03-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0880.0078.060.030.05
PittsburghBE0.140.0860.8758.160.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0637.5038.33-0.03-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.16-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0683.3384.760.030.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0652.3852.870.000.00
TroySB0.050.0628.5730.17-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0634.7834.48-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.100.0661.9058.590.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0619.0522.37-0.07-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0656.5255.200.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.068.3310.86-0.04-0.05
ConnecticutBE0.050.0668.1863.990.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0642.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0656.5254.220.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.000.0634.7835.20-0.00-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.000.0682.6181.440.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0656.5250.270.010.00
RadfordBSth0.050.068.7013.10-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0656.5257.720.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0681.8280.430.040.04
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0666.6769.690.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0652.3857.860.000.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.0671.4369.050.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0659.0959.720.020.01
NevadaWAC0.000.0680.9576.420.000.03
PurdueB100.090.0665.2260.580.030.01
Seton HallBE0.100.0665.2263.740.030.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.0676.1975.940.050.03
Utah St.WAC0.100.0650.0052.930.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0640.9142.96-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0666.6760.800.020.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0647.8350.65-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.090.0682.6177.630.060.03
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0639.1344.52-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0618.1822.22-0.06-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0626.3229.79-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0673.9175.490.020.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.060.0372.7364.430.030.01
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0378.2672.340.030.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0345.4546.99-0.01-0.00
North TexasSB0.000.0350.0050.010.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
RutgersBE0.060.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.02
Penn St.B100.050.0341.6738.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.89-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0317.6527.10-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.040.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0344.4441.71-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0359.0957.280.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.040.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0363.6463.160.000.01