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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:193.0
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:178
Current SOS:178
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:243
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17193.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Albany (185.0)AEH62-74L0%0.0
11-12Vermont (101.0)AEA77-66L0%0.0
11-16La Salle (98.0)A10A78-74L0%0.0
11-19St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H72-70W100%0.0
11-22Cornell (334.0)IvyA70-71W100%0.0
11-24Purdue (145.0)B10A81-73L0%0.0
11-28Memphis (37.0)AmerN60-87L0%0.0
11-29Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10N78-66L0%0.0
12-1Purdue (145.0)B10N63-68L0%0.0
12-6Niagara (302.0)MAACA71-84W100%0.0
12-8Canisius (96.0)MAACA93-78L0%0.0
12-23Hofstra (277.0)CAAH67-59W100%0.0
12-30Fordham (226.0)A10H79-69W100%0.0
1-2Monmouth (292.0)MAACA63-59L0%0.0
1-4Rider (198.0)MAACH62-47W100%0.0
1-10Marist (250.0)MAACH67-58W100%0.0
1-12Iona (59.0)MAACH78-87L0%0.0
1-16Manhattan (60.0)MAACA90-68L0%0.0
1-19Iona (59.0)MAACA88-74L0%0.0
1-23Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH64-47W100%0.0
1-26Fairfield (289.0)MAACA56-64W100%0.0
1-30Niagara (302.0)MAACH66-62W100%0.0
2-1Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH95-103L0%0.0
2-7Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA66-53L0%0.0
2-10Fairfield (289.0)MAACH77-75W100%0.0
2-14Marist (250.0)MAACA65-64L0%0.0
2-16Canisius (96.0)MAACH88-92L0%0.0
2-21Manhattan (60.0)MAACH67-63W100%0.0
2-23Rider (198.0)MAACA60-69W100%0.0
2-27Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA70-72W100%0.0
3-2Monmouth (292.0)MAACH70-54W100%0.0
3-8Canisius (96.0)MAACN71-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC26.4326.4346.4346.43-1.89-1.89
CanisiusMAAC5.655.6562.0762.071.361.36
ManhattanMAAC4.294.2980.0080.002.572.57
IonaMAAC4.264.2666.6766.671.421.42
QuinnipiacMAAC4.234.2365.5265.521.311.31
RiderMAAC4.234.2348.2848.28-0.15-0.15
NiagaraMAAC4.194.1922.5822.58-2.30-2.30
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.194.1944.8344.83-0.43-0.43
MonmouthMAAC4.164.1633.3333.33-1.39-1.39
MaristMAAC4.134.1337.9337.93-1.00-1.00
FairfieldMAAC4.114.1123.3323.33-2.19-2.19
PurdueB103.183.1843.3343.33-0.42-0.42
St. BonaventureA101.911.9154.8454.840.180.18
La SalleA101.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA101.761.7671.8871.880.770.77
AlbanyAE1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
FordhamA101.731.7333.3333.33-0.58-0.58
VermontAE1.711.7165.5265.520.530.53
HofstraCAA1.661.6631.2531.25-0.62-0.62
CornellIvy1.641.643.853.85-1.51-1.51
MemphisAmer1.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
PennIvy0.300.3028.5728.57-0.13-0.13
HartfordAE0.300.3051.5251.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Stony BrookAE0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
George WashingtonA100.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
RichmondA100.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
DaytonA100.220.2269.7069.700.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.190.1964.2964.290.060.06
WagnerNEC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
DuquesneA100.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
MaineAE0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
ProvidenceBE0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
MassachusettsA100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Ohio St.B100.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
New HampshireAE0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
BucknellPat0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
ElonSC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.120.1280.6580.650.080.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1073.5373.530.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
LamarSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
NJITind0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00