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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:133.8
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:46
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-338.00.01%
25-445.00.09%
24-551.10.32%
23-662.51.24%
22-773.93.23%
21-886.66.60%
20-9100.012.15%
19-10114.015.54%
18-11128.917.66%
17-12144.715.43%
16-13161.011.98%
15-14179.28.16%
14-15197.14.47%
13-16216.01.91%
12-17234.80.86%
11-18251.10.24%
10-19276.00.08%
8-21306.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Massachusetts (41.1)A10A95-87L0%0.0
11-17Vermont (122.4)AEH76-84L0%0.0
11-19St. Bonaventure (145.7)A10A70-73W100%0.0
11-29Loyola MD (270.1)PatA0-073%7.5
12-1Fordham (257.3)A10A0-063%4.1
12-5Quinnipiac (169.2)MAACH0-069%6.0
12-7Rider (209.8)MAACA0-056%1.9
12-13Albany (140.3)AEH0-064%4.4
12-19Radford (229.1)BSthA0-061%3.5
12-23Cornell (244.8)IvyH0-081%10.6
12-28Bucknell (232.8)PatH0-083%11.3
1-2Fairfield (256.9)MAACA0-070%6.3
1-4Iona (44.8)MAACH0-037%-4.0
1-8Niagara (272.7)MAACH0-088%13.8
1-11Fairfield (256.9)MAACH0-087%13.5
1-16Canisius (151.1)MAACA0-046%-1.2
1-18Niagara (272.7)MAACA0-071%6.7
1-23Marist (276.4)MAACH0-084%12.2
1-25Saint Peter's (234.0)MAACH0-077%8.8
1-30Manhattan (206.0)MAACA0-050%-0.1
2-2Rider (209.8)MAACH0-077%9.0
2-6Iona (44.8)MAACA0-018%-11.2
2-9Saint Peter's (234.0)MAACA0-055%1.6
2-12Marist (276.4)MAACA0-066%5.0
2-14Monmouth (184.3)MAACH0-070%6.5
2-19Canisius (151.1)MAACH0-069%6.0
2-21Manhattan (206.0)MAACH0-072%7.1
2-27Quinnipiac (169.2)MAACA0-046%-1.2
3-1Monmouth (184.3)MAACA0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC30.5626.4341.1862.84-5.396.79
CanisiusMAAC4.174.6150.0053.500.000.32
FairfieldMAAC0.004.5840.0033.20-0.00-1.54
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.5550.0056.680.000.61
NiagaraMAAC0.004.5533.3330.88-0.00-1.74
ManhattanMAAC1.394.5525.0049.27-0.69-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.004.5350.0052.920.000.26
IonaMAAC0.004.5380.0079.850.002.70
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.5220.0042.29-0.00-0.70
MaristMAAC0.004.5220.0033.76-0.00-1.47
RiderMAAC0.004.4950.0047.850.00-0.19
MassachusettsA1016.672.0280.0065.4910.000.63
AlbanyAE0.001.9950.0064.430.000.57
St. BonaventureA1016.671.93100.0053.9516.670.15
BucknellPat0.001.9333.3336.46-0.00-0.52
FordhamA100.001.920.0025.62-0.00-0.94
CornellIvy0.001.9042.8641.73-0.00-0.31
VermontAE16.671.9033.3364.58-5.560.55
Loyola MDPat0.001.8740.0031.42-0.00-0.69
RadfordBSth0.001.7525.0046.95-0.00-0.11
HartfordAE0.000.3680.0051.800.000.01
LehighPat0.000.3020.0042.40-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA102.080.2960.0039.490.42-0.06
PennIvy0.000.290.0023.29-0.00-0.16
La SalleA100.000.26100.0056.620.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.240.0022.97-0.00-0.13
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2325.0053.31-0.000.02
George MasonA100.000.2320.0021.73-0.00-0.13
Stony BrookAE0.000.2150.0065.760.000.07
Holy CrossPat0.000.21100.0066.080.000.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.1860.0042.120.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.180.0019.27-0.00-0.11
YaleIvy0.000.1880.0070.280.000.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1875.0064.180.000.05
ColgatePat0.000.1820.0039.02-0.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.1825.0037.52-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.17100.0069.410.000.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.170.0030.79-0.00-0.07
RutgersB100.000.1750.0024.520.00-0.09
UMBCAE0.000.150.0027.57-0.00-0.07
RichmondA100.000.1550.0064.050.000.04
DaytonA100.000.1575.0071.150.000.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1560.0057.880.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1566.6761.870.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.15100.0060.350.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.150.0045.08-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA1.390.1480.0066.690.830.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1480.0071.650.000.06
New HampshireAE0.000.1233.3345.71-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy2.080.120.0036.14-2.08-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.1275.0046.370.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6739.87-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.12100.0054.340.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1266.6773.440.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1275.0064.980.000.04
AmericanPat0.000.1266.6759.500.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1220.0038.01-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.1260.0060.080.000.02
NavyPat0.000.1220.0029.93-0.00-0.05
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0077.430.000.06
HowardMEAC0.000.0925.0045.71-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0058.520.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0914.2931.08-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.410.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0975.0069.280.000.03
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.080.000.04
Florida St.ACC1.390.0940.0038.71-0.28-0.02
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.860.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0036.68-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC1.390.0940.0038.08-0.28-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0866.6751.600.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.550.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.980.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.02-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.02-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0022.89-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0625.0052.61-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.30-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.83-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.040.000.03
NJITind0.000.0620.0029.79-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0068.140.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.29-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.66-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0066.690.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0076.610.000.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.600.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3339.40-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.00-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4357.180.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.310.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0064.150.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.37-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0625.0036.44-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.750.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.47-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.67-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0043.690.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0038.820.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0065.300.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0051.96-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.990.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0350.0073.640.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.350.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0036.000.00-0.01
BryantNEC2.080.0333.3346.61-0.69-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.63-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0028.760.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0071.480.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.74-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC2.080.0320.0043.55-1.25-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0051.520.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0046.16-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.520.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.610.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0077.100.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.000.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0055.990.000.00
Notre DameACC1.390.0383.3369.220.930.01