Siena

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	226.0
Current RPI:	225
Expected SOS:	223
Current SOS:	196
Current Record:	10-12
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	5-7
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.74%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-6
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	229
Expected OOC SOS:	267

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	158.5	0.23%
16-13	177.7	2.54%
15-14	195.3	10.82%
14-15	212.1	25.78%
13-16	229.3	33.42%
12-17	247.6	20.32%
11-18	265.3	6.30%
10-19	279.6	0.58%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-16	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	65-56	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	53-65	W	100%	0.0
11-21	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	H	58-64	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	A	72-44	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	64-62	L	0%	0.0
12-1	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	51-44	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	59-66	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	64-60	W	100%	0.0
12-9	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	N	82-78	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Fordham (243.2)	A10	H	59-74	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Princeton (117.6)	Ivy	H	63-59	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	A	60-67	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	N	95-59	L	0%	0.0
1-6	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	73-60	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	72-60	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	83-79	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	72-53	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	66-55	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	66-55	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	83-72	L	0%	0.0
2-3	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	58-63	L	0%	0.0
2-5	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	0-0		17%	-10.2
2-9	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	0-0		36%	-4.0
2-11	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		66%	4.5
2-14	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	0-0		31%	-5.3
2-18	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	0-0		29%	-6.1
2-23	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	0-0		56%	1.6
2-26	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		85%	11.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Siena	MAAC	26.49	26.36	40.43	44.11	-5.07	-3.11
Niagara	MAAC	3.07	4.43	39.13	42.19	-0.67	-0.69
Rider	MAAC	5.24	4.43	36.36	37.72	-1.43	-1.09
Manhattan	MAAC	3.15	4.43	66.67	68.02	1.05	1.60
Loyola MD	MAAC	5.18	4.43	75.00	71.49	2.59	1.90
Iona	MAAC	5.17	4.43	81.82	82.25	3.29	2.86
Canisius	MAAC	1.04	4.40	17.39	19.46	-0.68	-2.69
St. Peter's	MAAC	5.13	4.37	14.29	19.20	-3.66	-2.69
Marist	MAAC	2.99	4.34	36.36	34.27	-0.82	-1.36
Fairfield	MAAC	2.85	4.31	57.14	55.27	0.41	0.45
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.48	1.99	57.89	57.55	0.39	0.30
Vermont	AE	2.46	1.95	58.33	61.24	0.41	0.44
Fordham	A10	2.47	1.90	38.10	32.16	-0.59	-0.68
Albany	AE	2.42	1.90	62.50	62.44	0.61	0.47
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	1.87	32.00	34.20	-0.07	-0.59
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.48	1.84	27.27	29.63	-1.13	-0.75
Massachusetts	A10	2.32	1.78	72.73	67.50	1.06	0.62
Navy	Pat	2.37	1.78	10.00	13.69	-1.89	-1.29
Princeton	Ivy	2.37	1.78	50.00	54.82	0.00	0.17
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.32	1.75	36.36	40.13	-0.63	-0.35
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.27	1.75	38.10	41.19	-0.54	-0.31
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.38	0.34	13.64	16.35	-0.28	-0.23
Binghamton	AE	0.29	0.34	0.00	4.02	-0.29	-0.31
Hartford	AE	0.33	0.31	17.39	20.97	-0.21	-0.18
New Hampshire	AE	0.34	0.29	35.00	38.58	-0.10	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.25	0.26	79.17	78.10	0.15	0.14
Buffalo	MAC	0.26	0.23	68.42	66.45	0.10	0.08
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.30	0.23	56.52	57.15	0.04	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.25	0.23	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.34	0.23	70.83	71.05	0.14	0.10
Bucknell	Pat	0.27	0.21	73.91	75.00	0.13	0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.20	0.21	30.43	29.50	-0.08	-0.09
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.21	20.83	20.60	-0.09	-0.12
Monmouth	NEC	0.30	0.20	28.00	28.91	-0.13	-0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.25	0.20	62.50	62.49	0.06	0.05
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.20	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.15	0.18	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.17	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.24	0.17	8.70	12.13	-0.20	-0.13
Maryland	ACC	0.24	0.17	59.09	50.82	0.04	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.17	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.09	0.17	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.17	76.00	72.50	0.07	0.08
Stony Brook	AE	0.23	0.17	66.67	68.05	0.08	0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.15	73.91	74.91	0.10	0.08
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	90.48	87.91	0.12	0.11
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.15	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.26	0.15	34.78	32.08	-0.08	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.25	0.15	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.20	0.15	69.57	61.31	0.08	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.15	27.27	23.80	-0.07	-0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.14	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.14	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.24	0.14	68.00	70.03	0.09	0.06
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	4.00	5.26	-0.13	-0.13
American	Pat	0.16	0.12	65.22	63.79	0.05	0.03
Army	Pat	0.10	0.12	40.91	41.72	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.12	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.12	36.84	41.45	-0.04	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.12	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.12	70.83	64.42	0.07	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.12	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.14	0.10
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.12	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.05
South Florida	BE	0.15	0.12	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.12	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.08
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.09	0.12	14.29	17.17	-0.06	-0.08
St. Louis	A10	0.15	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.08	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.12	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.15	0.12	70.83	71.64	0.06	0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.15	0.12	21.74	22.76	-0.09	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.12	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.12	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.11	95.83	92.01	0.13	0.10
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.11	39.13	36.10	-0.00	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.17	0.09	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.16	0.09	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.09	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.09	72.22	63.19	0.05	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.09	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.05
Denver	SB	0.09	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.09	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.09	65.00	60.02	0.05	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.08	33.33	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.08	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.10	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.05	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.00	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.03	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.00	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.00	0.01