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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:261.0
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:201
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:8-14
Expected Conf Record:8-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20261.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Massachusetts (80.0)A10A95-87L0%0.0
11-17Vermont (203.0)AEH76-84L0%0.0
11-19St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A70-73W100%0.0
11-29Loyola MD (270.0)PatA71-81W100%0.0
12-1Fordham (238.0)A10A69-67L0%0.0
12-5Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH88-67W100%0.0
12-7Rider (140.0)MAACA80-68L0%0.0
12-13Albany (99.0)AEH68-77L0%0.0
12-19Radford (154.0)BSthA76-66L0%0.0
12-23Cornell (227.0)IvyH57-75L0%0.0
12-28Bucknell (136.0)PatH73-71W100%0.0
1-2Fairfield (299.0)MAACA67-68W100%0.0
1-4Iona (51.0)MAACH72-86L0%0.0
1-8Niagara (287.0)MAACH79-69W100%0.0
1-11Fairfield (299.0)MAACH67-79L0%0.0
1-16Canisius (180.0)MAACA83-49L0%0.0
1-18Niagara (287.0)MAACA70-74W100%0.0
1-23Marist (317.0)MAACH69-60W100%0.0
1-25Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH55-69L0%0.0
1-30Manhattan (168.0)MAACA87-79L0%0.0
2-2Rider (140.0)MAACH79-72W100%0.0
2-6Iona (51.0)MAACA87-83L0%0.0
2-9Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA65-57L0%0.0
2-12Marist (317.0)MAACA64-66W100%0.0
2-14Monmouth (176.0)MAACH64-83L0%0.0
2-19Canisius (180.0)MAACH63-69L0%0.0
2-21Manhattan (168.0)MAACH74-80L0%0.0
2-27Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA73-63L0%0.0
3-1Monmouth (176.0)MAACA63-57L0%0.0
3-5Niagara (287.0)MAACN71-54W100%0.0
3-7Iona (51.0)MAACN71-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC26.5126.5135.9535.95-7.45-7.45
IonaMAAC5.945.9474.1974.192.872.87
NiagaraMAAC5.855.8529.6329.63-2.38-2.38
ManhattanMAAC4.464.4656.6756.670.600.60
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.434.4343.7543.75-0.55-0.55
MonmouthMAAC4.404.4051.6151.610.140.14
CanisiusMAAC4.394.3950.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC4.374.3723.3323.33-2.33-2.33
FairfieldMAAC4.364.3620.6920.69-2.56-2.56
QuinnipiacMAAC4.344.3450.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC4.294.2966.6766.671.431.43
MassachusettsA101.891.8951.6151.610.060.06
AlbanyAE1.881.8874.1974.190.910.91
St. BonaventureA101.821.8260.0060.000.360.36
BucknellPat1.791.7958.0658.060.290.29
FordhamA101.791.7927.5927.59-0.80-0.80
VermontAE1.771.7755.1755.170.180.18
CornellIvy1.771.7739.2939.29-0.38-0.38
Loyola MDPat1.741.7437.9337.93-0.42-0.42
RadfordBSth1.641.6460.7160.710.350.35
HartfordAE0.340.3444.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.290.2941.9441.94-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.290.2932.1432.14-0.10-0.10
LehighPat0.260.2651.7251.720.010.01
La SalleA100.260.2651.5251.520.010.01
George MasonA100.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
Stony BrookAE0.240.2465.6265.620.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.240.2444.8344.83-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.210.2116.6716.67-0.14-0.14
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
MaineAE0.180.1810.0010.00-0.15-0.15
YaleIvy0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.160.1676.6776.670.080.08
UMBCAE0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
ColgatePat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
DaytonA100.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
ArmyPat0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1565.5265.520.050.05
RutgersB100.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
LafayettePat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
New HampshireAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
WagnerNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
AmericanPat0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02