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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:122.0
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:93
Current SOS:93
Current Record:17-17
Expected Record:17-17
Current Conf Record:14-9
Expected Conf Record:14-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-17122.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cornell (270.0)IvyH89-78W100%0.0
11-15George Washington (102.0)A10A77-75L0%0.0
11-18Kansas (4.0)B12A86-65L0%0.0
11-20UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA92-80L0%0.0
11-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH66-43W100%0.0
11-27Albany (129.0)AEA81-72L0%0.0
11-30St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A81-74L0%0.0
12-3Fairfield (180.0)MAACH80-73W100%0.0
12-5Rider (198.0)MAACA71-69L0%0.0
12-9Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA73-69L0%0.0
12-17Bucknell (63.0)PatN71-68W100%0.0
12-22Hofstra (196.0)CAAA84-64L0%0.0
12-29Vermont (46.0)AEH60-76L0%0.0
1-2Canisius (171.0)MAACA82-79L0%0.0
1-4Niagara (275.0)MAACA71-66L0%0.0
1-7Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH56-54W100%0.0
1-12Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH81-74W100%0.0
1-15Fairfield (180.0)MAACA54-63W100%0.0
1-17Rider (198.0)MAACH78-68W100%0.0
1-19Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA77-65L0%0.0
1-22Manhattan (263.0)MAACA68-81W100%0.0
1-27Iona (89.0)MAACH66-77L0%0.0
1-30Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA75-84W100%0.0
2-4Canisius (171.0)MAACH73-80L0%0.0
2-7Iona (89.0)MAACA79-81W100%0.0
2-11Marist (276.0)MAACA77-84W100%0.0
2-13Monmouth (49.0)MAACH82-102L0%0.0
2-16Manhattan (263.0)MAACH94-71W100%0.0
2-18Niagara (275.0)MAACH76-70W100%0.0
2-24Monmouth (49.0)MAACA77-73L0%0.0
2-26Marist (276.0)MAACH80-64W100%0.0
3-4Fairfield (180.0)MAACH78-66W100%0.0
3-5Monmouth (49.0)MAACH89-85W100%0.0
3-6Iona (89.0)MAACH86-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC26.5126.5150.6950.690.370.37
IonaMAAC5.425.4264.5264.521.571.57
MonmouthMAAC5.405.4083.3383.333.603.60
FairfieldMAAC5.335.3359.2659.260.990.99
NiagaraMAAC4.044.0429.0329.03-1.69-1.69
CanisiusMAAC4.044.0451.6151.610.130.13
RiderMAAC4.014.0154.8454.840.390.39
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.014.0160.0060.000.800.80
ManhattanMAAC3.993.9933.3333.33-1.33-1.33
MaristMAAC3.993.9926.6726.67-1.86-1.86
QuinnipiacMAAC3.963.9634.4834.48-1.23-1.23
VermontAE1.651.6584.3884.381.141.14
AlbanyAE1.651.6559.3859.380.310.31
St. BonaventureA101.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
BucknellPat1.591.5978.7978.790.920.92
HofstraCAA1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
CornellIvy1.561.5625.9325.93-0.75-0.75
George WashingtonA101.521.5256.2556.250.190.19
KansasB121.501.5087.1087.101.111.11
UNC AshevilleBSth1.491.4968.9768.970.570.57
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.491.4920.6920.69-0.88-0.88
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.471.4775.8675.860.760.76
DrexelCAA0.250.2525.8125.81-0.12-0.12
HartfordAE0.250.2528.1228.12-0.11-0.11
ArmyPat0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
DelawareCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.1478.5778.570.080.08
BinghamtonAE0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
DuquesneA100.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
NevadaMWC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
PennIvy0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.040.0442.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0461.7661.760.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.043.333.33-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.040.0421.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
ButlerBE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
AmericanPat0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00