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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:104.0
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:160
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:44
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-12104.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Duke (20.0)ACCA92-74L0%0.0
11-15Wisconsin (43.0)B10A92-65L0%0.0
11-20Radford (192.0)BSthN62-76W100%0.0
11-21Bryant (320.0)NECA59-78W100%0.0
11-24Bucknell (183.0)PatA81-83W100%0.0
11-28Loyola MD (255.0)PatH90-82W100%0.0
12-1Cornell (244.0)IvyA81-80L0%0.0
12-4Manhattan (229.0)MAACH89-54W100%0.0
12-6Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA72-68L0%0.0
12-9Hofstra (54.0)CAAH81-68W100%0.0
12-12Albany (107.0)AEH78-70W100%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H73-70W100%0.0
12-29Vermont (126.0)AEA73-64L0%0.0
1-2Niagara (315.0)MAACH75-63W100%0.0
1-4Manhattan (229.0)MAACA92-87L0%0.0
1-7Fairfield (142.0)MAACH91-76W100%0.0
1-15Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA52-64W100%0.0
1-18Monmouth (52.0)MAACA85-69L0%0.0
1-21Rider (242.0)MAACH63-52W100%0.0
1-24Canisius (220.0)MAACA78-99W100%0.0
1-26Niagara (315.0)MAACA70-82W100%0.0
1-30Marist (318.0)MAACH77-66W100%0.0
2-1Monmouth (52.0)MAACH87-93L0%0.0
2-5Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH69-52W100%0.0
2-7Marist (318.0)MAACA79-73L0%0.0
2-11Canisius (220.0)MAACH90-67W100%0.0
2-13Iona (77.0)MAACA78-81W100%0.0
2-19Rider (242.0)MAACA64-84W100%0.0
2-22Iona (77.0)MAACH81-87L0%0.0
2-24Fairfield (142.0)MAACA76-69L0%0.0
2-28Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH80-65W100%0.0
3-5Manhattan (229.0)MAACH89-76W100%0.0
3-6Iona (77.0)MAACH70-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC26.4726.4765.9665.968.458.45
IonaMAAC5.555.5568.9768.972.102.10
ManhattanMAAC5.535.5342.8642.86-0.79-0.79
CanisiusMAAC4.194.1945.1645.16-0.41-0.41
MonmouthMAAC4.194.1978.1278.122.362.36
FairfieldMAAC4.144.1460.0060.000.830.83
NiagaraMAAC4.114.1123.3323.33-2.19-2.19
MaristMAAC4.104.1021.4321.43-2.35-2.35
RiderMAAC4.094.0941.9441.94-0.66-0.66
QuinnipiacMAAC4.084.0832.1432.14-1.46-1.46
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.064.0646.4346.43-0.29-0.29
VermontAE1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
AlbanyAE1.741.7476.6776.670.930.93
BucknellPat1.691.6957.1457.140.240.24
CornellIvy1.681.6830.7730.77-0.65-0.65
St. BonaventureA101.681.6875.8675.860.870.87
Loyola MDPat1.641.6431.0331.03-0.62-0.62
HofstraCAA1.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
DukeACC1.541.5468.7568.750.580.58
BryantNEC1.541.5424.1424.14-0.80-0.80
RadfordBSth1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB101.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
HartfordAE0.310.3128.1228.12-0.14-0.14
Holy CrossPat0.280.2842.4242.42-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
BrownIvy0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
ArmyPat0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.200.2065.5265.520.060.06
YaleIvy0.200.2077.7877.780.110.11
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
DrexelCAA0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
LafayettePat0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
MaineAE0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
ColgatePat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
UMBCAE0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Notre DameACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0229.1729.17-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01