Siena

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	299.0
Current RPI:	299
Expected SOS:	171
Current SOS:	171
Current Record:	8-24
Expected Record:	8-24
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-8
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	188
Expected OOC SOS:	40

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-24	299.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	68-60	L	0%
11-13	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	53-86	L	0%
11-17	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	91-90	L	0%
11-20	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	115-92	L	0%
11-25	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	85-76	W	100%
11-29	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	H	55-75	L	0%
12-2	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	76-74	W	100%
12-6	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	86-60	L	0%
12-9	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	69-74	L	0%
12-11	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	81-57	L	0%
12-17	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	68-87	W	100%
12-20	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	70-66	L	0%
12-22	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	71-65	W	100%
12-29	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	63-58	L	0%
1-1	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	70-71	L	0%
1-5	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	76-84	L	0%
1-7	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	65-62	W	100%
1-11	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	71-69	L	0%
1-13	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	72-61	L	0%
1-18	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	68-65	W	100%
1-21	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	76-69	L	0%
1-25	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	67-56	L	0%
1-29	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	59-57	W	100%
2-2	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	47-51	L	0%
2-5	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	78-65	L	0%
2-8	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	89-65	L	0%
2-12	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	82-78	W	100%
2-15	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	97-71	L	0%
2-18	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	89-93	L	0%
2-21	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	69-70	L	0%
2-25	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	65-48	L	0%
3-1	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	58-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Siena	MAAC	26.27	26.27	20.59	20.59	-15.45	-15.45
Quinnipiac	MAAC	5.50	5.50	30.00	30.00	-2.20	-2.20
Fairfield	MAAC	4.05	4.05	48.39	48.39	-0.13	-0.13
Iona	MAAC	4.03	4.03	61.29	61.29	0.91	0.91
Canisius	MAAC	4.00	4.00	66.67	66.67	1.33	1.33
Monmouth	MAAC	3.98	3.98	31.03	31.03	-1.51	-1.51
Saint Peter's	MAAC	3.98	3.98	43.33	43.33	-0.53	-0.53
Manhattan	MAAC	3.95	3.95	41.38	41.38	-0.68	-0.68
Marist	MAAC	3.93	3.93	17.24	17.24	-2.57	-2.57
Rider	MAAC	2.51	2.51	70.00	70.00	1.01	1.01
Niagara	MAAC	2.49	2.49	58.06	58.06	0.40	0.40
Albany	AE	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
Holy Cross	Pat	1.79	1.79	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Lehigh	Pat	1.76	1.76	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	1.74	1.74	72.73	72.73	0.79	0.79
Hofstra	CAA	1.74	1.74	62.07	62.07	0.42	0.42
Vermont	AE	1.73	1.73	78.12	78.12	0.97	0.97
Robert Morris	NEC	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	1.68	1.68	10.00	10.00	-1.35	-1.35
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Memphis	Amer	1.64	1.64	60.61	60.61	0.35	0.35
Louisville	ACC	1.64	1.64	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
College of Charleston	CAA	1.61	1.61	76.67	76.67	0.86	0.86
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.56	1.56	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
Army	Pat	0.30	0.30	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.27	0.27	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.27	0.27	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Drexel	CAA	0.25	0.25	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola MD	Pat	0.24	0.24	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Boston University	Pat	0.23	0.23	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.22	0.22	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Hartford	AE	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Elon	CAA	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.20	0.20	68.75	68.75	0.07	0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.19	0.19	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.19	0.19	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.19	0.19	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.19	0.19	13.33	13.33	-0.14	-0.14
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Towson	CAA	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.15	0.15	93.94	93.94	0.13	0.13
UMass Lowell	AE	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Tulsa	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00