Siena

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	295.0
Current RPI:	295
Expected SOS:	197
Current SOS:	197
Current Record:	8-24
Expected Record:	8-24
Current Conf Record:	5-15
Expected Conf Record:	5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-5
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	302
Expected OOC SOS:	261

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-24	295.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	53-54	L	0%
11-11	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	49-54	W	100%
11-16	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	68-64	L	0%
11-17	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	N	56-52	W	100%
11-18	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	77-60	L	0%
11-25	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	72-66	L	0%
11-28	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	H	63-64	L	0%
12-1	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	56-69	L	0%
12-4	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	A	58-43	L	0%
12-7	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	56-62	L	0%
12-9	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	75-55	L	0%
12-23	Fordham (228.0)	A10	A	81-75	L	0%
12-29	La Salle (46.0)	A10	H	52-80	L	0%
1-4	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	62-66	L	0%
1-6	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	72-53	L	0%
1-11	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	57-54	W	100%
1-13	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	66-53	W	100%
1-17	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	87-64	L	0%
1-19	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	76-44	L	0%
1-25	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	69-78	L	0%
1-27	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	75-79	W	100%
2-1	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	66-63	W	100%
2-4	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	54-64	L	0%
2-8	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	63-51	L	0%
2-10	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	72-62	L	0%
2-14	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	74-52	L	0%
2-16	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	57-80	L	0%
2-24	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	65-57	W	100%
3-1	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	74-76	L	0%
3-3	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	80-61	L	0%
3-8	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	N	64-70	W	100%
3-9	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	N	74-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Siena	MAAC	26.44	26.44	24.00	24.00	-13.75	-13.75
Niagara	MAAC	5.62	5.62	55.17	55.17	0.58	0.58
Marist	MAAC	5.55	5.55	32.14	32.14	-1.98	-1.98
Iona	MAAC	4.24	4.24	58.06	58.06	0.68	0.68
Fairfield	MAAC	4.21	4.21	53.12	53.12	0.26	0.26
Manhattan	MAAC	4.18	4.18	43.33	43.33	-0.56	-0.56
Canisius	MAAC	4.11	4.11	58.62	58.62	0.71	0.71
Rider	MAAC	4.08	4.08	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.08	4.08	63.33	63.33	1.09	1.09
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.05	4.05	28.57	28.57	-1.74	-1.74
Albany	AE	1.84	1.84	69.70	69.70	0.72	0.72
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.81	1.81	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Vermont	AE	1.81	1.81	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Maine	AE	1.76	1.76	32.14	32.14	-0.63	-0.63
La Salle	A10	1.74	1.74	68.97	68.97	0.66	0.66
Fordham	A10	1.73	1.73	20.00	20.00	-1.04	-1.04
Massachusetts	A10	1.64	1.64	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Northern Kentucky	ASun	1.64	1.64	42.31	42.31	-0.25	-0.25
San Diego	WCC	1.62	1.62	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.62	1.62	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Navy	Pat	1.61	1.61	24.14	24.14	-0.84	-0.84
Radford	BSth	1.56	1.56	35.71	35.71	-0.45	-0.45
Stony Brook	AE	0.40	0.40	76.67	76.67	0.21	0.21
Hartford	AE	0.32	0.32	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.30	0.30	84.38	84.38	0.21	0.21
Binghamton	AE	0.28	0.28	6.90	6.90	-0.24	-0.24
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.27	0.27	23.33	23.33	-0.15	-0.15
Boston University	AE	0.25	0.25	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Temple	A10	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Army	Pat	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.12	0.12	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01