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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Siena

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:144.9
Current RPI:281
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:249
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-836.60.05%
22-953.40.27%
21-1063.80.90%
20-1176.32.82%
19-1290.06.15%
18-13104.010.65%
17-14119.515.63%
16-15136.216.92%
15-16153.716.21%
14-17173.613.18%
13-18192.98.66%
12-19211.74.77%
11-20229.82.46%
10-21248.80.89%
9-22270.60.31%
8-23282.20.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Siena.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cornell (260.9)IvyH89-78W100%0.0
11-15George Washington (176.1)A10A77-75L0%0.0
11-18Kansas (7.5)B12A86-65L0%0.0
11-20UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthA92-80L0%0.0
11-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH66-43W100%0.0
11-27Albany (156.7)AEA81-72L0%0.0
11-30St. Bonaventure (61.9)A10A81-74L0%0.0
12-3Fairfield (134.7)MAACH0-060%3.2
12-5Rider (212.4)MAACA0-052%0.6
12-9Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA0-027%-7.5
12-17Bucknell (97.9)PatN0-043%-2.1
12-22Hofstra (237.3)CAAA0-058%2.5
12-29Vermont (91.3)AEH0-048%-0.5
1-2Canisius (211.7)MAACA0-055%1.6
1-4Niagara (304.2)MAACA0-070%6.2
1-7Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACH0-066%4.8
1-12Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACH0-081%10.7
1-15Fairfield (134.7)MAACA0-040%-3.0
1-17Rider (212.4)MAACH0-071%6.8
1-19Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACA0-045%-1.4
1-22Manhattan (234.2)MAACA0-061%3.4
1-27Iona (82.5)MAACH0-047%-1.0
1-30Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACA0-065%4.5
2-4Canisius (211.7)MAACH0-074%7.7
2-7Iona (82.5)MAACA0-027%-7.2
2-11Marist (236.1)MAACA0-065%4.7
2-13Monmouth (65.5)MAACH0-041%-2.8
2-16Manhattan (234.2)MAACH0-079%9.5
2-18Niagara (304.2)MAACH0-085%12.4
2-24Monmouth (65.5)MAACA0-023%-8.9
2-26Marist (236.1)MAACH0-082%10.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Siena's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Siena's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Siena.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
SienaMAAC29.0326.3528.5753.59-12.441.89
CanisiusMAAC0.004.2333.3341.94-0.00-0.68
MaristMAAC0.004.2342.8636.32-0.00-1.16
ManhattanMAAC0.004.2333.3338.75-0.00-0.95
MonmouthMAAC0.514.2171.4371.810.221.83
NiagaraMAAC0.004.2016.6727.34-0.00-1.91
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.2016.6734.83-0.00-1.27
FairfieldMAAC0.004.2083.3363.000.001.09
IonaMAAC0.004.1860.0070.630.001.72
RiderMAAC0.004.1850.0048.650.00-0.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.1760.0053.350.000.28
AlbanyAE7.141.8040.0059.01-1.430.32
VermontAE0.001.8062.5072.320.000.80
St. BonaventureA107.141.7760.0069.731.430.70
BucknellPat0.001.7275.0068.020.000.62
HofstraCAA0.001.7257.1440.510.00-0.33
CornellIvy7.141.6933.3331.81-2.38-0.62
George WashingtonA107.861.6750.0042.300.00-0.26
KansasB127.741.6483.3375.375.160.83
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7.651.640.0025.09-7.65-0.82
UNC AshevilleBSth7.651.6440.0063.59-1.530.45
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.6150.0071.250.000.69
HartfordAE0.000.2712.5022.55-0.00-0.15
DrexelCAA0.000.2642.8636.82-0.00-0.07
BrownIvy0.600.2450.0042.420.00-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.600.2442.8647.69-0.09-0.01
FordhamA100.000.2157.1443.680.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.190.0023.47-0.00-0.10
UMass LowellAE0.000.1925.0040.81-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.1933.3345.58-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1816.6729.36-0.00-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1742.8642.47-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.510.1742.8640.94-0.07-0.03
MaineAE0.000.1616.6725.61-0.00-0.08
WagnerNEC0.000.1633.3353.85-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1650.0053.530.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1640.0040.65-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.1637.5034.65-0.00-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.95-0.000.04
LafayettePat0.510.1433.3331.87-0.17-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1483.3358.030.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.1316.6733.82-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1383.3358.080.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1340.0050.91-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1385.7162.410.000.03
PennIvy0.000.1240.0057.97-0.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.1114.2933.07-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1133.3364.14-0.000.03
HarvardIvy0.510.110.0043.04-0.51-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1157.1459.480.000.02
NJITASun0.000.1142.8650.32-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1128.5730.29-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.510.1157.1448.240.07-0.00
ColgatePat0.510.1120.0041.31-0.31-0.02
La SalleA100.000.1160.0051.780.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3340.49-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1171.4350.570.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.1160.0070.500.000.04
New HampshireAE0.000.1150.0057.480.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.1180.0055.340.000.01
VCUA100.600.1185.7178.150.430.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1120.0034.22-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.600.1150.0056.260.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0054.490.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.1083.3368.880.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.1071.4370.330.000.04
RichmondA100.000.1057.1448.600.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0086.250.000.08
NevadaMWC0.000.1075.0070.470.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1083.3380.550.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1042.8637.60-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.600.0933.3338.20-0.20-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0842.8638.05-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0074.460.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6770.140.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0883.3377.170.000.04
GeorgiaSEC1.620.0866.6754.380.540.01
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.710.0875.0054.320.360.01
UABCUSA1.730.0857.1461.940.250.02
DukeACC0.510.0887.5078.680.380.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0038.35-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0866.6732.240.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0871.4363.570.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.600.0687.5075.320.450.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.510.0683.3376.370.340.03
Long Beach St.BW0.510.060.0039.35-0.51-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0620.0048.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0514.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.600.0566.6756.360.200.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.050.0028.15-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.600.0560.0057.900.120.01
MarylandB100.000.0585.7156.490.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0075.010.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0516.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0525.0056.92-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0540.0055.44-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
Penn St.B101.110.0562.5043.960.28-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0516.6735.65-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8646.78-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.050.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0583.3357.990.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0516.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0528.5743.62-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0585.7180.010.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.32-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0540.0030.80-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0580.0068.320.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0550.0049.010.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0583.3344.770.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.050.0027.77-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.05100.0059.480.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0585.7163.780.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.44-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0520.0054.94-0.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.600.0320.0049.38-0.36-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0366.6758.420.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.600.0385.7180.960.430.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HawaiiBW0.710.0350.0050.940.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.600.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.600.0340.0043.86-0.12-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.510.0383.3375.060.340.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.510.030.0034.23-0.51-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00