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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:47.0
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:26
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1247.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH83-59W100%0.0
11-12Tennessee (42.0)SECH67-63W100%0.0
11-15Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH79-56W100%0.0
11-20Miami OH (161.0)MACH77-51W100%0.0
11-28Iowa (56.0)B10N77-74L0%0.0
11-29Tennessee (42.0)SECN49-64L0%0.0
11-30USC (176.0)P12N84-78L0%0.0
12-7Bowling Green (194.0)MACH85-73W100%0.0
12-10Evansville (214.0)MVCH63-60W100%0.0
12-14Cincinnati (21.0)AmerN64-47W100%0.0
12-21Alabama (124.0)SECA74-77W100%0.0
12-28Wake Forest (113.0)ACCH68-53W100%0.0
12-31St. John's (67.0)BEH70-60W100%0.0
1-4Butler (150.0)BEH79-68W100%0.0
1-9Marquette (92.0)BEH86-79W100%0.0
1-12Creighton (10.0)BEA95-89L0%0.0
1-15Georgetown (69.0)BEH80-67W100%0.0
1-20DePaul (154.0)BEA74-84W100%0.0
1-25Providence (40.0)BEA81-72L0%0.0
2-1Seton Hall (128.0)BEH60-68L0%0.0
2-3Villanova (5.0)BEA81-58L0%0.0
2-8Providence (40.0)BEH59-53W100%0.0
2-11Butler (150.0)BEA50-64W100%0.0
2-15Marquette (92.0)BEA81-72L0%0.0
2-19DePaul (154.0)BEH83-64W100%0.0
2-22Georgetown (69.0)BEA74-52L0%0.0
2-25St. John's (67.0)BEA53-65W100%0.0
3-1Creighton (10.0)BEH75-69W100%0.0
3-3Seton Hall (128.0)BEA71-62L0%0.0
3-6Villanova (5.0)BEH70-77L0%0.0
3-13Marquette (92.0)BEN68-65W100%0.0
3-14Creighton (10.0)BEN86-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.4626.4660.6160.615.615.61
CreightonBE5.615.6180.0080.003.363.36
MarquetteBE5.515.5155.1755.170.570.57
ProvidenceBE4.174.1768.7568.751.561.56
Seton HallBE4.154.1546.8846.88-0.26-0.26
DePaulBE4.124.1238.7138.71-0.93-0.93
VillanovaBE4.094.0986.6786.673.003.00
ButlerBE4.064.0646.4346.43-0.29-0.29
St. John'sBE4.044.0466.6766.671.351.35
GeorgetownBE4.044.0455.1755.170.420.42
TennesseeSEC3.203.2063.3363.330.850.85
Morehead St.OVC1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
EvansvilleMVC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Bowling GreenMAC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Miami OHMAC1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Wake ForestACC1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
USCP121.641.6430.0030.00-0.65-0.65
AlabamaSEC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
IowaB101.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Gardner WebbBSth1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
CincinnatiAmer1.561.5684.3884.381.071.07
Arizona St.P120.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
VanderbiltSEC0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.200.2078.7978.790.110.11
Wichita St.MVC0.200.20100.00100.000.200.20
FloridaSEC0.200.2094.1294.120.170.17
Ball St.MAC0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Kent St.MAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
MissouriSEC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
OhioMAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
LSUSEC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
NorthwesternB100.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1514.8114.81-0.10-0.10
George WashingtonA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1487.1087.100.110.11
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
CaliforniaP120.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
La SalleA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01