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Through games of Jan 19, 2017.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:11
Current Record:13-5
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-53.60.10%
25-67.30.92%
24-710.54.33%
23-814.111.64%
22-918.020.58%
21-1022.124.19%
20-1126.420.33%
19-1231.811.51%
18-1339.14.68%
17-1448.71.35%
16-1561.80.31%
15-1673.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lehigh (100.5)PatH84-81W100%0.0
11-14Buffalo (162.0)MACH86-53W100%0.0
11-17Missouri (255.1)SECN82-83W100%0.0
11-18Clemson (47.9)ACCN83-77W100%0.0
11-20Northern Iowa (193.3)MVCN59-67W100%0.0
11-26Northern Iowa (193.3)MVCH64-42W100%0.0
11-29North Dakota St. (107.9)SumH85-55W100%0.0
12-3Baylor (5.4)B12A76-61L0%0.0
12-7Colorado (125.5)P12A68-66L0%0.0
12-10Utah (62.1)P12H77-69W100%0.0
12-17Wake Forest (42.4)ACCH69-65W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Washington (182.5)BSkyH85-56W100%0.0
12-28Providence (78.6)BEH82-56W100%0.0
12-31Georgetown (86.2)BEA76-81W100%0.0
1-7St. John's (152.6)BEH97-82W100%0.0
1-10Villanova (3.3)BEA79-54L0%0.0
1-14Butler (8.5)BEA83-78L0%0.0
1-16Creighton (13.4)BEH67-72L0%0.0
1-22Georgetown (86.2)BEH0-077%8.2
1-26Cincinnati (15.0)AmerA0-031%-5.5
1-29St. John's (152.6)BEA0-072%6.6
2-1Seton Hall (62.6)BEH0-077%8.3
2-4Creighton (13.4)BEA0-031%-5.4
2-8DePaul (226.1)BEH0-095%18.7
2-11Villanova (3.3)BEH0-037%-3.8
2-15Providence (78.6)BEA0-063%3.7
2-18Marquette (62.4)BEA0-046%-1.0
2-22Seton Hall (62.6)BEA0-058%2.1
2-26Butler (8.5)BEH0-055%1.4
3-1Marquette (62.4)BEH0-068%5.2
3-4DePaul (226.1)BEA0-087%12.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.5826.3772.0667.9811.729.48
ButlerBE3.234.1283.3378.762.152.37
VillanovaBE3.074.1094.4489.792.733.26
CreightonBE3.154.1094.1284.752.782.85
DePaulBE0.284.0742.1131.88-0.04-1.48
GeorgetownBE3.064.0755.5650.750.340.06
ProvidenceBE3.074.0768.4257.811.130.64
St. John'sBE3.074.0747.3740.26-0.16-0.79
MarquetteBE0.224.0766.6762.870.071.05
Seton HallBE0.224.0766.6760.040.070.82
Northern IowaMVC5.563.2340.0042.25-1.11-0.50
UtahP122.931.7273.3370.151.370.69
Wake ForestACC2.931.7264.7157.490.860.26
ColoradoP122.951.7047.0651.26-0.170.04
BuffaloMAC2.851.6740.0046.61-0.57-0.11
CincinnatiAmer0.071.6788.8987.120.061.24
ClemsonACC2.851.6764.7161.260.840.38
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.851.6462.5062.440.710.41
BaylorB122.781.6193.7580.202.430.97
LehighPat2.781.6156.2565.780.350.51
MissouriSEC2.781.6131.2526.85-1.04-0.75
North Dakota St.Sum2.781.6168.7565.011.040.48
Missouri St.MVC0.250.2563.1659.600.060.05
OregonP120.150.1988.8983.420.120.13
Indiana St.MVC0.070.1733.3335.89-0.02-0.05
DrakeMVC0.160.1729.4127.72-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.400.1747.3744.50-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.160.1747.0633.41-0.01-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1768.4264.450.000.05
StanfordP120.000.1755.5648.060.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.230.1678.9569.150.130.06
WisconsinB100.150.1683.3381.340.100.10
SyracuseACC0.140.1657.8952.530.020.01
VirginiaACC0.220.1682.3576.310.140.08
TempleAmer0.070.1650.0053.120.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.330.1550.0057.000.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1422.2229.91-0.09-0.06
BucknellPat0.230.1470.0071.880.090.06
OklahomaB120.320.1447.0641.22-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.320.1489.4784.490.250.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.320.1422.2225.61-0.18-0.07
PittsburghACC0.090.1463.1651.640.020.00
MississippiSEC0.080.1361.1155.020.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.1368.4252.190.030.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.1344.4442.61-0.01-0.02
La SalleA100.230.1368.7564.060.090.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1347.3734.50-0.01-0.04
Notre DameACC0.230.1384.2176.530.160.07
TulaneAmer0.150.1322.2220.61-0.08-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.1231.5833.42-0.09-0.04
BradleyMVC0.160.1236.8433.57-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1244.4443.59-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1277.7878.450.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.330.1261.1159.640.070.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1252.6347.710.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1278.9582.980.090.08
IUPUISum0.080.1138.8943.17-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.160.1155.0049.300.02-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.160.1147.0646.22-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.320.1184.2180.590.220.07
Oregon St.P120.000.1116.6713.66-0.00-0.08
WashingtonP120.080.1150.0043.410.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.240.1164.7165.930.070.04
AmericanPat0.150.1127.7830.70-0.07-0.04
LafayettePat0.070.1129.4123.73-0.03-0.06
WyomingMWC0.160.1164.7157.710.050.02
AkronMAC0.080.1182.3575.940.050.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.1170.5964.080.100.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1135.0039.73-0.05-0.02
TexasB120.240.1138.8935.40-0.05-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1164.7158.500.050.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.1182.3574.990.050.05
HowardMEAC0.070.1112.5028.48-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1152.9450.570.010.00
RutgersB100.000.1155.5642.910.00-0.02
VermontAE0.140.1175.0077.350.070.06
ConnecticutAmer0.070.1035.2941.78-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.1077.7867.010.040.04
DenverSum0.160.0957.8955.930.030.01
NavyPat0.160.0944.4446.62-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.170.0833.3340.47-0.06-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.160.0877.7870.280.090.03
Weber St.BSky0.170.0850.0061.630.000.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0843.7546.21-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0835.2944.15-0.02-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5034.51-0.02-0.03
SeattleWAC0.240.0840.0037.09-0.05-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0835.2935.21-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0831.2538.34-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.160.0864.7157.690.050.01
DukeACC0.000.0877.7873.840.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0877.7874.910.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0889.4779.540.060.05
Georgia TechACC0.080.0861.1147.030.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.160.0884.2179.260.110.05
NebraskaB100.150.0847.0641.69-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0877.7862.530.000.02
MaineAE0.160.0820.0020.93-0.09-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0831.2536.85-0.03-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0841.1846.85-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0864.7161.810.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.0873.6869.690.070.03
Michigan St.B100.150.0863.1657.640.040.01
VCUA100.150.0873.6870.630.070.03
BrownIvy0.070.0850.0043.270.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0873.6867.210.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0857.8949.790.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0864.7167.080.020.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0664.7166.920.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0652.6353.110.000.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0655.0054.820.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0626.6727.54-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.080.0638.8942.65-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0650.0053.040.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0621.0527.28-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.160.0664.7156.510.050.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0650.0051.650.000.00
High PointBSth0.160.0637.5042.28-0.04-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.170.0663.1660.550.040.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0670.5958.260.030.01
UCLAP120.160.0695.0089.680.150.04
USCP120.160.0680.0071.930.100.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0664.7156.070.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0656.2551.890.000.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0640.0044.97-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0612.5022.05-0.06-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0647.0648.06-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0650.0058.280.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0616.6720.44-0.05-0.03
OhioMAC0.090.0666.6767.530.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0611.7618.02-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0520.0024.23-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0566.6755.390.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0521.0528.90-0.04-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0511.1116.29-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0546.1546.12-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.160.0552.9453.550.010.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0533.3330.94-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0558.8254.690.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0528.5741.75-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0568.4264.620.030.02
KansasB120.000.0594.4481.780.000.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0577.7862.320.050.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0525.0023.84-0.04-0.03
LSUSEC0.160.0552.9438.790.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0570.5960.550.030.01
MichiganB100.000.0563.1658.150.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0518.7535.74-0.05-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0538.8939.34-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0522.2223.85-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.0576.4763.610.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0552.9451.020.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0577.7865.340.000.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0538.8939.96-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0583.3380.700.050.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0523.5321.81-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0544.4450.49-0.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0550.0066.280.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0512.5024.38-0.05-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.070.0535.2937.33-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0537.5044.22-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0516.6718.29-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0517.6529.61-0.04-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0550.0051.330.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0538.8935.26-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0525.0029.54-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0568.4268.050.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0552.9450.970.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0546.6747.34-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0563.1660.770.020.01
MarylandB100.070.0588.8973.850.060.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0563.1660.380.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0522.2227.20-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0578.9570.140.040.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0556.2558.190.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0563.1658.000.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0561.1162.270.020.01
PennIvy0.070.0542.8647.99-0.01-0.00
PurdueB100.070.0578.9576.900.040.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0547.0646.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0580.0077.810.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0535.2928.99-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0531.5835.66-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0515.7920.51-0.05-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0558.8251.180.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0552.9451.320.000.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0537.5047.59-0.02-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.030.0014.44-0.08-0.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0352.9454.690.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0340.0050.06-0.020.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0317.6535.32-0.06-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0360.0066.100.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0340.0051.38-0.020.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0355.5654.400.010.00
UC RiversideBW0.090.0321.4330.90-0.05-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0340.0044.67-0.02-0.00
YaleIvy0.080.0357.1465.320.010.01
BryantNEC0.080.0321.0533.57-0.05-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0363.1663.580.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0357.1458.890.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0335.2941.50-0.02-0.00
NevadaMWC0.090.0384.2178.670.060.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0326.3227.67-0.04-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0360.0053.420.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0358.8257.800.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0357.1457.200.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.090.0366.6762.880.030.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0352.9452.840.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0341.1837.56-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.036.2511.89-0.07-0.02
BYUWCC0.080.0370.0068.700.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0343.7543.70-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0343.7543.72-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0352.9450.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0341.1846.17-0.01-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0364.7169.850.020.01
IllinoisB100.080.0361.1153.430.020.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0331.2545.44-0.03-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0388.8987.510.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0325.0028.40-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0333.3343.05-0.03-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0360.0072.810.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0325.0034.03-0.04-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0347.0640.46-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0341.1844.82-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0361.1157.870.020.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0362.5063.240.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0314.2929.28-0.06-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0337.5051.20-0.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.0648.42-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0388.8986.020.060.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0318.7524.06-0.05-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0347.3745.09-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.080.0331.2540.50-0.03-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0352.6358.990.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0347.3741.51-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.050.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0364.7160.060.000.01