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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:9.4
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:25
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-01.00.04%
29-11.10.40%
28-21.31.79%
27-31.85.51%
26-42.611.71%
25-54.316.75%
24-66.718.59%
23-79.818.15%
22-814.113.25%
21-919.37.68%
20-1025.63.70%
19-1134.01.56%
18-1241.50.62%
17-1352.60.20%
16-1465.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Morehead St. (235.3)OVCH101-49W100%0.0
11-13Rider (152.2)MAACH101-75W100%0.0
11-16Wisconsin (36.5)B10A70-80W100%0.0
11-20Hampton (281.6)MEACH0-099%30.7
11-23George Washington (163.9)A10N0-093%18.1
11-28Baylor (41.9)B12H0-071%6.6
12-2Cincinnati (17.4)AmerH0-059%2.7
12-6Kent St. (87.0)MACH0-092%17.3
12-9Colorado (94.8)P12H0-091%16.1
12-16East Tennessee St. (158.0)SCH0-097%22.1
12-19Marshall (170.2)CUSAH0-098%23.5
12-22Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCA0-076%8.5
12-27Marquette (88.1)BEA0-071%6.6
12-30DePaul (198.3)BEH0-096%20.6
1-2Butler (79.5)BEH0-085%12.5
1-6Providence (42.3)BEA0-060%2.9
1-10Villanova (6.5)BEA0-033%-5.4
1-13Creighton (36.3)BEH0-075%8.2
1-17St. John's (65.5)BEH0-084%12.1
1-20Seton Hall (28.6)BEA0-055%1.4
1-24Marquette (88.1)BEH0-085%12.6
1-30St. John's (65.5)BEA0-069%6.1
2-3Georgetown (126.6)BEH0-087%13.7
2-6Butler (79.5)BEA0-070%6.5
2-10Creighton (36.3)BEA0-057%2.1
2-14Seton Hall (28.6)BEH0-073%7.4
2-17Villanova (6.5)BEH0-052%0.6
2-21Georgetown (126.6)BEA0-074%7.7
2-28Providence (42.3)BEH0-077%8.9
3-3DePaul (198.3)BEA0-089%14.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE33.3326.38100.0077.3833.3314.45
ProvidenceBE0.004.2975.0066.840.001.44
ButlerBE0.004.2875.0054.590.000.39
MarquetteBE0.004.2850.0053.100.000.27
Seton HallBE0.004.26100.0070.240.001.72
CreightonBE0.004.25100.0069.950.001.70
GeorgetownBE0.004.25100.0060.940.000.93
VillanovaBE0.004.25100.0084.840.002.96
DePaulBE0.004.2533.3333.100.00-1.44
St. John'sBE0.004.25100.0057.010.000.60
RiderMAAC16.671.78100.0057.1816.670.26
WisconsinB1016.671.75100.0069.2816.670.68
Morehead St.OVC16.671.7550.0038.020.00-0.42
George WashingtonA100.001.7366.6747.240.00-0.10
HamptonMEAC2.781.720.0049.90-2.78-0.00
MarshallCUSA2.781.7066.6750.700.930.02
BaylorB120.001.69100.0062.250.000.42
CincinnatiAmer0.001.67100.0083.830.001.13
ColoradoP120.001.67100.0054.420.000.15
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.6733.3359.780.000.33
Kent St.MAC0.001.67100.0068.030.000.60
Northern IowaMVC0.001.6766.6764.790.000.49
NorthwesternB100.000.1775.0055.040.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.1766.6740.070.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.17100.0085.360.000.12
VCUA100.000.1766.6766.590.000.06
TempleAmer0.000.17100.0056.600.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0022.840.00-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.150.0025.140.00-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.150.0028.770.00-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1466.6759.540.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.140.0027.250.00-0.07
UCLAP120.000.14100.0064.910.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.14100.0059.240.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.140.0045.040.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1466.6753.390.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1450.0073.230.000.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.007.670.00-0.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.120.0021.590.00-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1225.0040.490.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0037.120.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0022.610.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1225.0047.800.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.12100.0062.760.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.1225.0059.770.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0046.080.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.1266.6742.260.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1275.0071.560.000.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.12100.0039.920.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1250.0077.820.000.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.11100.0056.360.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1150.0059.440.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0086.180.000.08
TexasB120.000.11100.0063.830.000.03
UtahP120.000.11100.0067.160.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.110.0037.310.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.11100.0055.280.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1166.6759.740.000.02
RichmondA100.000.110.0030.280.00-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1133.3348.640.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.11100.0062.630.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.1166.6753.670.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0966.6763.230.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0950.0035.740.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.09100.0057.270.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.09100.0059.760.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0035.610.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0933.3341.010.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0950.0038.730.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.09100.0071.560.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0052.380.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC2.780.090.0034.04-2.78-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0925.0050.070.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0966.6748.280.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.09100.0070.960.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0933.3329.980.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0050.450.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0975.0056.120.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0925.0032.490.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.090.0021.380.00-0.05
Wichita St.Amer0.000.09100.0082.290.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0038.990.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0975.0051.210.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0036.640.00-0.02
YaleIvy2.780.0925.0054.93-1.390.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.090.0051.010.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.08100.0060.400.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.08100.0061.010.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0866.6749.940.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.08100.0060.370.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0833.3341.220.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0833.3348.480.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.08100.0046.880.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0850.0042.160.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.08100.0071.700.000.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0046.410.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0666.6774.120.000.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0042.810.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0074.140.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0675.0076.250.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.06100.0060.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3347.970.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.150.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3330.460.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.06100.0038.710.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0047.670.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.060.0044.950.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0575.0045.290.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.05100.0039.270.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.960.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.050.0047.400.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
LipscombASun2.780.0333.3349.22-0.93-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0024.440.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0035.330.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.03100.0044.740.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.910.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0333.3339.360.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HartfordAE2.780.0333.3326.43-0.93-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0051.840.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3338.880.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.180.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.360.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.970.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.00