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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Xavier

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:87.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1487.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)NECH117-75W100%0.0
11-13Butler (22.0)A10H62-47W100%0.0
11-17Robert Morris (132.0)NECH61-59W100%0.0
11-22Pacific (97.0)BWN67-70L0%0.0
11-23Drexel (206.0)CAAN65-69W100%0.0
11-25Drake (143.0)MVCN70-74W100%0.0
12-1Purdue (136.0)B10A57-63W100%0.0
12-6Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH64-66L0%0.0
12-9Kent St. (131.0)MACH62-55W100%0.0
12-19Cincinnati (50.0)BEN60-45L0%0.0
12-22Wofford (250.0)SCH55-56L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee (59.0)SECA51-47L0%0.0
1-2Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA66-59L0%0.0
1-10Temple (42.0)A10H57-52W100%0.0
1-12George Washington (147.0)A10H71-56W100%0.0
1-16St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A64-66W100%0.0
1-19La Salle (46.0)A10H70-63W100%0.0
1-23Charlotte (68.0)A10A63-57L0%0.0
1-26Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A59-49L0%0.0
1-30Dayton (114.0)A10H66-61W100%0.0
2-2Richmond (92.0)A10A73-71L0%0.0
2-9Duquesne (229.0)A10A65-73W100%0.0
2-13Fordham (228.0)A10H79-66W100%0.0
2-16Dayton (114.0)A10A70-59L0%0.0
2-20Rhode Island (201.0)A10A42-55W100%0.0
2-23Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H71-75L0%0.0
2-26Memphis (12.0)CUSAH64-62W100%0.0
3-2Massachusetts (57.0)A10H72-77L0%0.0
3-6St. Louis (15.0)A10H77-66W100%0.0
3-9Butler (22.0)A10A67-62L0%0.0
3-14Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10N57-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierA1025.9525.9552.5952.591.351.35
ButlerA103.793.7977.4277.422.082.08
Saint Joseph'sA103.713.7155.1755.170.380.38
DaytonA103.693.6955.1755.170.380.38
Virginia CommonwealthA102.232.2375.7675.761.151.15
St. LouisA102.202.2084.3884.381.511.51
MassachusettsA102.182.1864.5264.520.630.63
RichmondA102.152.1554.8454.840.210.21
FordhamA102.132.1323.3323.33-1.13-1.13
TempleA102.132.1374.1974.191.031.03
CharlotteA102.132.1364.5264.520.620.62
La SalleA102.132.1372.4172.410.950.95
DuquesneA102.102.1027.5927.59-0.94-0.94
George WashingtonA102.102.1044.8344.83-0.22-0.22
St. BonaventureA102.082.0850.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA102.072.0728.5728.57-0.89-0.89
Robert MorrisNEC1.721.7271.8871.880.750.75
VanderbiltSEC1.711.7146.8846.88-0.11-0.11
TennesseeSEC1.711.7161.2961.290.390.39
DrexelCAA1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Kent St.MAC1.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
MemphisCUSA1.661.6690.9190.911.361.36
Wake ForestACC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
WoffordSC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
CincinnatiBE1.611.6165.6265.620.500.50
DrakeMVC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PacificBW1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
PurdueB101.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
PennsylvaniaIvy0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
OhioMAC0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
AlabamaSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
VillanovaBE0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
AuburnSEC0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Notre DameBE0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
DavidsonSC0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
George MasonCAA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
CreightonMVC0.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
MonmouthNEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
NorthwesternB100.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
DukeACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Old DominionCAA0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ConnecticutBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
IndianaB100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1053.8553.850.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MarylandACC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.080.0818.1818.18-0.05-0.05
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.7593.750.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0348.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.027.147.14-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0228.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00