live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:7.0
Current RPI:7
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:30
Current Record:27-5
Expected Record:27-5
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-57.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Miami OH (195.0)MACH81-72W100%0.0
11-17Missouri (222.0)SECH78-66W100%0.0
11-20Michigan (56.0)B10A70-86W100%0.0
11-23Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH78-66W100%0.0
11-26Alabama (73.0)SECN64-45W100%0.0
11-27USC (51.0)P12N77-87W100%0.0
11-29Dayton (21.0)A10N61-90W100%0.0
12-5Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH95-64W100%0.0
12-8Wright St. (146.0)HorzH90-55W100%0.0
12-12Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH65-55W100%0.0
12-19Auburn (175.0)SECH85-61W100%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA70-78W100%0.0
12-31Villanova (4.0)BEA95-64L0%0.0
1-2Butler (57.0)BEH88-69W100%0.0
1-6St. John's (246.0)BEA66-74W100%0.0
1-12DePaul (198.0)BEH84-64W100%0.0
1-16Marquette (110.0)BEA66-74W100%0.0
1-19Georgetown (106.0)BEH72-81L0%0.0
1-23Seton Hall (19.0)BEH84-76W100%0.0
1-26Providence (40.0)BEA68-75W100%0.0
1-30DePaul (198.0)BEA65-86W100%0.0
2-3St. John's (246.0)BEH90-83W100%0.0
2-6Marquette (110.0)BEH90-82W100%0.0
2-9Creighton (100.0)BEA70-56L0%0.0
2-13Butler (57.0)BEA57-74W100%0.0
2-17Providence (40.0)BEH85-74W100%0.0
2-20Georgetown (106.0)BEA70-88W100%0.0
2-24Villanova (4.0)BEH90-83W100%0.0
2-28Seton Hall (19.0)BEA90-81L0%0.0
3-5Creighton (100.0)BEH98-93W100%0.0
3-10Marquette (110.0)BEN90-72W100%0.0
3-11Seton Hall (19.0)BEN83-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.4026.4085.2185.2118.5918.59
Seton HallBE5.615.6176.6776.672.992.99
MarquetteBE5.565.5666.6766.671.851.85
VillanovaBE4.164.1687.5087.503.123.12
GeorgetownBE4.094.0945.1645.16-0.40-0.40
ProvidenceBE4.094.0974.1974.191.981.98
CreightonBE4.064.0656.6756.670.540.54
ButlerBE4.064.0672.4172.411.821.82
St. John'sBE4.064.0624.1424.14-2.10-2.10
DePaulBE4.044.0431.0331.03-1.53-1.53
AlabamaSEC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
Wright St.Horz1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
AuburnSEC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Northern KentuckyHorz1.631.6325.9325.93-0.79-0.79
CincinnatiAmer1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
MissouriSEC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
DaytonA101.611.6180.6580.650.990.99
Miami OHMAC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
MichiganB101.591.5965.6265.620.500.50
USCP121.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
Wake ForestACC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Western KentuckyCUSA1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
MississippiSEC0.220.2262.5062.500.060.06
RutgersB100.220.2219.3519.35-0.13-0.13
VanderbiltSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
LSUSEC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
IUPUISum0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
TennesseeSEC0.180.1844.1244.12-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
George WashingtonA100.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
TempleAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
NebraskaB100.140.1447.0647.06-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
OaklandHorz0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
SyracuseACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
WagnerNEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
MassachusettsA100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
BryantNEC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.060.06
BrownIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01