live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:37.0
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:13
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1337.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lehigh (97.0)PatH84-81W100%0.0
11-14Buffalo (146.0)MACH86-53W100%0.0
11-17Missouri (257.0)SECN82-83W100%0.0
11-18Clemson (69.0)ACCN83-77W100%0.0
11-20Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCN59-67W100%0.0
11-26Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH64-42W100%0.0
11-29North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH85-55W100%0.0
12-3Baylor (11.0)B12A76-61L0%0.0
12-7Colorado (99.0)P12A68-66L0%0.0
12-10Utah (83.0)P12H77-69W100%0.0
12-17Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH69-65W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyH85-56W100%0.0
12-28Providence (56.0)BEH82-56W100%0.0
12-31Georgetown (106.0)BEA76-81W100%0.0
1-7St. John's (140.0)BEH97-82W100%0.0
1-10Villanova (1.0)BEA79-54L0%0.0
1-14Butler (15.0)BEA83-78L0%0.0
1-16Creighton (26.0)BEH67-72L0%0.0
1-22Georgetown (106.0)BEH86-75W100%0.0
1-26Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA86-78L0%0.0
1-29St. John's (140.0)BEA77-82W100%0.0
2-1Seton Hall (43.0)BEH72-70W100%0.0
2-4Creighton (26.0)BEA80-82W100%0.0
2-8DePaul (239.0)BEH72-61W100%0.0
2-11Villanova (1.0)BEH57-73L0%0.0
2-15Providence (56.0)BEA75-63L0%0.0
2-18Marquette (60.0)BEA83-61L0%0.0
2-22Seton Hall (43.0)BEA71-64L0%0.0
2-26Butler (15.0)BEH79-88L0%0.0
3-1Marquette (60.0)BEH84-95L0%0.0
3-4DePaul (239.0)BEA65-79W100%0.0
3-8DePaul (239.0)BEN75-64W100%0.0
3-9Butler (15.0)BEN57-62W100%0.0
3-10Creighton (26.0)BEN75-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.5326.5360.9660.965.815.81
CreightonBE5.355.3573.3373.332.502.50
ButlerBE5.285.2875.0075.002.642.64
DePaulBE5.235.2331.0331.03-1.99-1.99
VillanovaBE4.004.0090.6290.623.253.25
St. John'sBE3.903.9045.1645.16-0.38-0.38
Seton HallBE3.903.9066.6766.671.301.30
ProvidenceBE3.883.8863.3363.331.031.03
GeorgetownBE3.853.8546.6746.67-0.26-0.26
MarquetteBE3.853.8558.6258.620.660.66
Northern IowaMVC2.942.9448.1548.15-0.11-0.11
UtahP121.591.5964.2964.290.450.45
Wake ForestACC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
ColoradoP121.551.5554.8454.840.150.15
CincinnatiAmer1.541.5484.8584.851.071.07
BuffaloMAC1.541.5451.7251.720.050.05
ClemsonACC1.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.491.4966.6766.670.500.50
BaylorB121.471.4776.6776.670.780.78
LehighPat1.471.4763.3363.330.390.39
MissouriSEC1.471.4725.8125.81-0.71-0.71
North Dakota St.Sum1.471.4762.9662.960.380.38
Missouri St.MVC0.320.3250.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.190.1967.6567.650.070.07
Washington St.P120.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
CaliforniaP120.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
OregonP120.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
Arizona St.P120.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
BucknellPat0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
WisconsinB100.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
MississippiSEC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
StanfordP120.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
IUPUISum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
AkronMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
RutgersB100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
IowaB100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
AmericanPat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
DenverSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
LipscombASun0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
PennIvy0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00