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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:3.0
Current RPI:3
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:28-5
Expected Record:28-5
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-53.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Morehead St. (292.0)OVCH101-49W100%0.0
11-13Rider (69.0)MAACH101-75W100%0.0
11-16Wisconsin (114.0)B10A70-80W100%0.0
11-20Hampton (237.0)MEACH96-60W100%0.0
11-23George Washington (195.0)A10N83-64W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (66.0)P12N102-86L0%0.0
11-28Baylor (68.0)B12H76-63W100%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH89-76W100%0.0
12-6Kent St. (154.0)MACH96-70W100%0.0
12-9Colorado (82.0)P12H96-69W100%0.0
12-16East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCH68-66W100%0.0
12-19Marshall (87.0)CUSAH81-77W100%0.0
12-22Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCA67-77W100%0.0
12-27Marquette (58.0)BEA87-91W100%0.0
12-30DePaul (186.0)BEH77-72W100%0.0
1-2Butler (41.0)BEH86-79W100%0.0
1-6Providence (32.0)BEA81-72L0%0.0
1-10Villanova (2.0)BEA89-65L0%0.0
1-13Creighton (44.0)BEH92-70W100%0.0
1-17St. John's (92.0)BEH88-82W100%0.0
1-20Seton Hall (31.0)BEA64-73W100%0.0
1-24Marquette (58.0)BEH89-70W100%0.0
1-30St. John's (92.0)BEA68-73W100%0.0
2-3Georgetown (169.0)BEH96-91W100%0.0
2-6Butler (41.0)BEA93-98W100%0.0
2-10Creighton (44.0)BEA71-72W100%0.0
2-14Seton Hall (31.0)BEH102-90W100%0.0
2-17Villanova (2.0)BEH79-95L0%0.0
2-21Georgetown (169.0)BEA77-89W100%0.0
2-28Providence (32.0)BEH84-74W100%0.0
3-3DePaul (186.0)BEA62-65W100%0.0
3-8St. John's (92.0)BEN60-88W100%0.0
3-9Providence (32.0)BEN72-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.3926.3984.3584.3518.1318.13
ProvidenceBE5.475.4761.2961.291.241.24
St. John'sBE5.425.4251.7251.720.190.19
VillanovaBE4.074.0787.5087.503.053.05
ButlerBE4.004.0064.5264.521.161.16
MarquetteBE3.993.9963.3363.331.071.07
CreightonBE3.973.9768.9768.971.501.50
GeorgetownBE3.943.9453.5753.570.280.28
Seton HallBE3.923.9270.0070.001.571.57
DePaulBE3.923.9237.9337.93-0.95-0.95
Arizona St.P121.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
RiderMAAC1.651.6573.3373.330.770.77
ColoradoP121.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
BaylorB121.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
HamptonMEAC1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
WisconsinB101.591.5946.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Morehead St.OVC1.581.5823.0823.08-0.85-0.85
George WashingtonA101.561.5646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Northern IowaMVC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA1.541.5471.8871.880.680.68
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5290.9190.911.241.24
East Tennessee St.SC1.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
Kent St.MAC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
NebraskaB100.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
Saint LouisA100.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
VCUA100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
PurdueB100.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
WashingtonP120.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
TempleAmer0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
HoustonAmer0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
BelmontOVC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1215.6215.62-0.08-0.08
OregonP120.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
FurmanSC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Wichita St.Amer0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
UCFAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.08-0.08
Kansas St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
Miami OHMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
MassachusettsA100.090.0939.3939.39-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0426.9226.92-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
PennIvy0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00