live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 13, 2017.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:6.1
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:51
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.24%
29-21.31.84%
28-31.76.71%
27-42.514.61%
26-53.622.03%
25-65.321.65%
24-77.816.55%
23-811.39.55%
22-915.84.73%
21-1021.41.54%
20-1129.10.44%
19-1238.20.08%
18-1339.00.01%
17-1461.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Morehead St. (279.2)OVCH101-49W100%0.0
11-13Rider (142.3)MAACH101-75W100%0.0
11-16Wisconsin (113.9)B10A70-80W100%0.0
11-20Hampton (271.1)MEACH96-60W100%0.0
11-23George Washington (176.7)A10N83-64W100%0.0
11-24Arizona St. (15.0)P12N102-86L0%0.0
11-28Baylor (41.6)B12H76-63W100%0.0
12-2Cincinnati (26.4)AmerH89-76W100%0.0
12-6Kent St. (179.5)MACH96-70W100%0.0
12-9Colorado (113.0)P12H96-69W100%0.0
12-16East Tennessee St. (132.3)SCH0-097%22.9
12-19Marshall (163.3)CUSAH0-098%24.0
12-22Northern Iowa (34.2)MVCA0-072%6.9
12-27Marquette (74.4)BEA0-076%8.3
12-30DePaul (164.8)BEH0-096%20.7
1-2Butler (54.9)BEH0-087%13.2
1-6Providence (72.0)BEA0-076%8.6
1-10Villanova (2.1)BEA0-032%-5.7
1-13Creighton (33.5)BEH0-076%8.3
1-17St. John's (43.0)BEH0-085%12.6
1-20Seton Hall (15.8)BEA0-053%0.8
1-24Marquette (74.4)BEH0-089%14.7
1-30St. John's (43.0)BEA0-070%6.2
2-3Georgetown (160.0)BEH0-095%19.5
2-6Butler (54.9)BEA0-072%6.8
2-10Creighton (33.5)BEA0-056%1.9
2-14Seton Hall (15.8)BEH0-073%7.2
2-17Villanova (2.1)BEH0-052%0.7
2-21Georgetown (160.0)BEA0-086%13.1
2-28Providence (72.0)BEH0-090%15.0
3-3DePaul (164.8)BEA0-088%14.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE27.7526.3186.8480.6920.4416.15
ButlerBE0.004.1180.0061.080.000.91
VillanovaBE0.004.11100.0090.880.003.36
ProvidenceBE0.254.1170.0055.050.100.41
St. John'sBE0.284.1077.7860.380.150.85
CreightonBE0.314.1077.7871.420.171.76
MarquetteBE0.214.1070.0056.310.080.52
Seton HallBE0.004.0890.0077.200.002.22
DePaulBE0.004.0860.0039.990.00-0.82
GeorgetownBE0.004.07100.0054.260.000.35
RiderMAAC5.881.7555.5660.650.650.37
Arizona St.P125.001.72100.0087.385.001.29
WisconsinB105.311.6945.4548.61-0.48-0.05
BaylorB125.211.6985.7164.213.720.48
HamptonMEAC5.751.6914.2949.85-4.11-0.00
Morehead St.OVC5.001.6916.6724.65-3.33-0.86
George WashingtonA105.561.6755.5648.790.62-0.04
ColoradoP125.001.6777.7851.002.780.03
Northern IowaMVC0.001.6675.0072.470.000.75
MarshallCUSA0.361.6466.6753.300.120.11
CincinnatiAmer5.001.6188.8981.913.891.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.6162.5063.880.000.45
Kent St.MAC5.001.6150.0046.350.00-0.12
UCLAP120.210.1977.7864.240.120.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1670.0044.800.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1663.6449.850.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.1660.0052.460.000.01
UtahP120.000.1677.7863.640.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1683.3382.170.000.10
VCUA100.000.1650.0063.680.000.04
TempleAmer0.460.1666.6761.920.150.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.140.0020.92-0.25-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.250.1410.0026.78-0.20-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1420.0020.200.00-0.08
OregonP120.000.1372.7366.230.000.04
RichmondA100.250.1320.0024.34-0.15-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.130.0015.45-0.28-0.09
IllinoisB100.000.1363.6453.130.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.1370.0055.570.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.310.1388.8985.040.240.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1344.4447.160.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.1355.5667.240.020.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.1362.5074.310.000.06
Saint LouisA100.000.1344.4441.690.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1154.5565.850.000.04
HowardMEAC0.250.110.0032.58-0.25-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.110.0011.830.00-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.310.110.0030.52-0.31-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0017.890.00-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1122.2238.440.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.003.380.00-0.10
FurmanSC0.000.1166.6765.750.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.1170.0073.960.000.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1150.0050.700.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.1155.5661.810.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1155.5635.580.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.530.1180.0057.290.320.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.1180.0087.600.000.08
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1144.4445.720.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1190.0086.600.000.08
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1127.2749.200.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1140.0037.540.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1144.4450.170.000.00
TexasB120.000.1166.6758.760.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.1188.8971.660.000.05
UCFAmer0.000.1170.0055.840.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1070.0048.170.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1080.0069.400.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.670.0950.0056.000.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0925.0028.290.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0922.2240.780.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0972.7365.350.140.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.360.0962.5075.040.090.04
DrakeMVC0.250.0844.4438.19-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.0890.0070.950.220.04
ValparaisoMVC0.280.0875.0066.790.140.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.080.0027.85-0.28-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0842.8654.200.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0814.2938.640.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0833.3329.160.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.0810.0025.30-0.17-0.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0877.7843.560.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0866.6769.450.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0837.5042.770.00-0.01
MercerSC0.250.0850.0066.250.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0844.4442.840.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.250.0822.2226.57-0.14-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0872.7371.720.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0871.4352.910.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0844.4432.690.00-0.03
KansasB120.280.0877.7877.430.150.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0850.0038.740.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0855.5657.060.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.250.0830.0028.99-0.10-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0840.0037.580.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0857.1467.370.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0866.6746.540.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.250.0862.5063.090.060.02
YaleIvy0.210.0841.6754.18-0.030.01
HofstraCAA0.250.0866.6761.010.080.02
Penn St.B100.460.0872.7364.550.210.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0833.3333.820.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0883.3363.490.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0850.0042.950.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0845.4549.070.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0875.0067.280.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0850.0051.270.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0875.0064.540.000.02
Ohio St.B100.210.0872.7366.350.090.03
PrincetonIvy0.250.0833.3344.40-0.08-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0872.7351.930.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0666.6774.130.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0048.910.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0655.5653.480.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0677.7858.790.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7854.170.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3338.720.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.060.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0043.430.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0620.0052.750.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.590.0612.5021.83-0.44-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.310.0662.5048.960.08-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0622.2227.050.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0611.1117.600.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0620.0031.630.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0688.8964.640.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0628.5722.640.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0662.5070.840.000.02
VMISC0.000.0637.5030.480.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0642.8645.690.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.250.0525.0048.73-0.13-0.00
VirginiaACC0.210.0588.8979.690.160.03
FordhamA100.000.0540.0033.050.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0533.3333.130.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0555.5662.620.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0560.0045.370.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0540.0045.610.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0585.7166.300.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0525.0025.950.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0591.6781.010.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0544.4448.570.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0587.5051.650.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0570.0068.860.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0525.0037.330.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0575.0050.440.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0520.0026.630.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0585.7177.450.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0577.7868.660.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0044.410.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0525.0027.780.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0577.7868.880.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0587.5059.840.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0577.7851.360.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0570.0076.590.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0514.2925.450.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0511.1139.770.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0070.570.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0550.0052.080.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0065.610.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.530.0520.0038.93-0.32-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0510.0022.750.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.0560.0074.270.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.0075.960.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.0525.0033.23-0.14-0.02
FloridaSEC0.250.0566.6767.960.080.02
IowaB100.000.0545.4541.190.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0572.7351.580.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0544.4443.730.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.059.0932.330.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0557.1464.330.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0566.6748.390.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0514.2934.310.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0545.4538.820.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0512.5037.540.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.050.0028.940.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0511.1125.650.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0577.7864.760.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0577.7852.760.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0528.5740.000.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0540.0044.090.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0563.6466.410.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0566.6769.540.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0530.0047.070.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0587.5070.330.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0571.4349.310.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0328.5740.640.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.360.0314.2930.73-0.26-0.01
LipscombASun0.360.0355.5664.610.040.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0366.6769.050.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.360.0390.0070.020.290.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3344.860.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0337.5053.360.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.310.0337.5049.96-0.08-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0024.930.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0311.1132.670.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0390.0076.800.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0380.0056.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0380.0075.940.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0045.150.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0325.0033.740.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0344.4446.790.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0375.0071.890.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0388.8965.390.000.01
TroySB0.000.0344.4448.820.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.250.0344.4428.56-0.03-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0381.8274.060.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.250.0340.0036.21-0.05-0.01
DenverSum0.250.0340.0035.79-0.05-0.01
DrexelCAA0.250.0344.4440.84-0.03-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.410.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0328.5736.550.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0042.780.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.250.0340.0029.33-0.05-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.280.0316.6731.31-0.19-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.009.640.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0362.5059.610.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.280.030.0021.23-0.28-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.250.0322.2238.07-0.14-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0340.0048.250.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0355.5659.140.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.0362.5057.920.060.00
PacificWCC0.000.0340.0037.810.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0312.5020.910.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.0360.0062.850.050.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.310.0316.6744.62-0.21-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.250.0380.0068.460.150.01
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0366.6766.220.090.01
San FranciscoWCC0.280.0357.1445.630.04-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0320.0033.590.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0360.0067.560.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0342.8647.34-0.04-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8635.240.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.310.030.0035.35-0.31-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0050.590.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0039.640.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0344.4448.830.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0057.180.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.280.0350.0054.570.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.250.030.0021.19-0.25-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0020.510.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0344.4451.300.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0355.5631.950.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.250.03100.0074.890.250.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0325.0033.430.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3348.560.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0076.340.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0372.7366.490.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.0355.5657.440.020.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.250.0387.5057.520.190.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0311.1133.580.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0027.730.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7871.170.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0370.0056.400.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.5650.590.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.250.0370.0055.190.100.00