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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:22.1
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:80
Current Record:8-2
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-33.50.12%
27-45.80.72%
26-57.32.62%
25-69.66.42%
24-712.312.45%
23-815.718.07%
22-919.719.75%
21-1024.717.11%
20-1131.411.54%
19-1239.77.07%
18-1350.12.71%
17-1462.41.06%
16-1575.50.26%
15-1691.50.08%
14-1798.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Arizona (212.3)BSkyH93-60W100%0.0
11-18Long Beach St. (90.1)BWH97-74W100%0.0
11-21Stephen F. Austin (75.0)SlndH81-63W100%0.0
11-24Murray St. (160.4)OVCH89-62W100%0.0
11-27San Diego (92.4)WCCN82-71W100%0.0
11-28UTEP (62.7)CUSAN73-77L0%0.0
11-30Long Beach St. (90.1)BWN73-70L0%0.0
12-6Alabama (83.6)SECH97-84W100%0.0
12-9IUPUI (291.5)SumH66-43W100%0.0
12-13Missouri (178.6)SECA58-74W100%0.0
12-20Auburn (184.8)SECA0-080%9.9
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (90.8)ASunH0-086%12.9
12-31Georgetown (47.6)BEH0-074%7.7
1-3DePaul (196.0)BEA0-081%10.3
1-7Seton Hall (37.4)BEH0-075%7.8
1-10Butler (25.9)BEA0-034%-4.7
1-14Villanova (17.0)BEA0-030%-6.2
1-17Marquette (100.2)BEH0-087%13.4
1-22Providence (80.8)BEA0-060%2.9
1-24DePaul (196.0)BEH0-095%19.0
1-27Georgetown (47.6)BEA0-046%-1.1
1-31Seton Hall (37.4)BEA0-047%-1.0
2-4Creighton (115.6)BEH0-088%13.6
2-7Providence (80.8)BEH0-084%11.6
2-10Marquette (100.2)BEA0-066%4.7
2-14St. John's (43.2)BEH0-075%7.8
2-18Cincinnati (49.1)AmerA0-057%2.2
2-21Butler (25.9)BEH0-063%4.0
2-23St. John's (43.2)BEA0-047%-0.9
2-28Villanova (17.0)BEH0-059%2.6
3-7Creighton (115.6)BEA0-066%4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE28.1226.3775.0070.9214.0611.04
ButlerBE0.004.1480.0074.030.001.99
St. John'sBE0.004.1387.5066.890.001.40
GeorgetownBE0.004.1366.6760.930.000.90
CreightonBE0.004.0872.7353.520.000.29
ProvidenceBE0.004.0872.7354.990.000.41
VillanovaBE0.004.08100.0083.910.002.77
MarquetteBE0.004.0855.5649.610.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.004.0890.0069.250.001.57
DePaulBE0.004.0860.0035.730.00-1.16
Long Beach St.BW10.283.3137.5050.08-2.570.01
AuburnSEC0.001.7244.4436.92-0.00-0.45
AlabamaSEC5.001.6975.0056.552.500.22
MissouriSEC5.001.6950.0032.670.00-0.59
Stephen F. AustinSlnd5.501.6775.0080.572.751.02
CincinnatiAmer0.001.6177.7870.080.000.65
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.6175.0073.960.000.77
IUPUISum5.001.6122.2227.24-2.78-0.73
Murray St.OVC5.001.6162.5064.081.250.45
Northern ArizonaBSky5.001.6144.4452.53-0.560.08
San DiegoWCC5.001.6160.0059.341.000.30
UTEPCUSA5.001.6162.5071.691.250.70
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.230.2037.5064.43-0.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.530.1944.4445.64-0.06-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.250.1971.4357.100.110.03
KentuckySEC0.000.19100.0094.790.000.17
TennesseeSEC0.000.1950.0046.150.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.250.1970.0052.610.100.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1662.5066.700.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1662.5059.510.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1677.7865.390.000.05
NJITind0.000.1636.3640.98-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1666.6757.800.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1466.6764.310.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.280.1442.8636.79-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1420.0028.20-0.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1460.0064.930.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1433.3338.99-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.1344.4470.08-0.030.05
OklahomaB120.280.1377.7867.290.150.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1125.0028.68-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.510.1144.4447.53-0.06-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1136.3633.67-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.530.1120.0019.99-0.32-0.07
BYUWCC0.500.1166.6767.300.170.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1166.6766.340.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.1190.0090.940.000.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.1133.3334.28-0.08-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.950.1162.5054.980.240.01
WisconsinB100.000.1190.9188.390.000.08
UCLAP120.730.1172.7357.280.330.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.40-0.00-0.08
IndianaB100.000.1180.0057.630.000.02
LehighPat0.000.1137.5047.71-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.730.1170.0072.830.290.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.1177.7871.960.000.05
Cal PolyBW0.000.1142.8638.75-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1136.3638.88-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1166.6754.830.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1180.0064.110.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1150.0039.340.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1144.4455.75-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.500.1111.1125.02-0.39-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.1125.0032.77-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1162.5064.260.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1185.7161.020.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.1137.5046.78-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1142.8643.10-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1175.0060.400.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.280.1144.4444.78-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.000.1111.1121.08-0.00-0.06
South DakotaSum0.000.1127.2738.97-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.1187.5054.790.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1060.0056.800.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.1063.6455.600.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0925.0042.64-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0944.4456.91-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.280.0922.2230.99-0.15-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0950.0053.850.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.280.0975.0074.340.140.04
PortlandWCC0.280.0866.6748.410.09-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0862.5054.970.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0064.610.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0031.74-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0866.6758.240.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0825.0023.43-0.13-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0877.7855.460.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0875.0058.430.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.280.0842.8627.08-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.280.0866.6751.430.090.00
UTSACUSA0.250.0842.8637.65-0.04-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0860.0055.630.000.01
WashingtonP120.780.08100.0071.820.780.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0860.0062.970.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.080.0017.51-0.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.280.0871.4348.860.12-0.00
MemphisAmer0.280.0855.5659.990.030.02
Arizona St.P120.280.0860.0053.820.060.01
Oral RobertsSum0.280.0844.4445.59-0.03-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.280.0887.5085.320.210.06
IllinoisB100.000.0872.7365.930.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.250.0833.3332.85-0.08-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6743.780.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0833.3354.74-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0870.0071.420.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.58-0.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.70-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2934.12-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0037.73-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.000.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.280.060.0028.26-0.28-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.230.060.0038.46-0.23-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0611.1144.04-0.22-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.0655.5649.500.03-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.0642.8655.64-0.040.01
EvansvilleMVC0.530.0677.7871.110.290.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.0650.0049.620.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.560.0680.0069.620.330.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.560.0636.3664.92-0.150.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0038.180.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.510.0627.2737.85-0.23-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.810.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.28-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0518.1846.16-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.280.05100.0080.590.280.03
DenverSum0.000.0550.0054.230.000.00
DukeACC0.000.05100.0087.140.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0528.5741.17-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0528.5728.26-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0537.5050.40-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0577.7851.350.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2933.32-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0557.1456.900.000.01
Kansas St.B120.500.0560.0037.220.10-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0533.3344.71-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.330.000.04
MercerSC0.000.0537.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0572.7373.150.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.730.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0518.1835.99-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0537.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0514.2930.74-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0555.5656.400.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0528.5757.26-0.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0590.0084.680.000.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0550.0041.830.00-0.01
PurdueB100.530.0572.7363.730.240.01
RutgersB100.000.0560.0035.070.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0542.8642.32-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3647.13-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0516.6727.56-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.860.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0528.5742.17-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0537.5031.95-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0533.3348.89-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0011.87-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6742.100.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0540.0033.79-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.29-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0550.0057.510.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.39-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0550.0037.510.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0550.0049.960.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3327.70-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0541.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0590.0075.520.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0555.5642.550.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0520.0021.58-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0570.0071.630.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.620.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0590.9171.890.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0537.5033.00-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.190.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0555.5640.500.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0570.0071.330.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0537.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0555.5634.940.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0572.7367.180.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5038.60-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.59-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.480.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0310.0018.61-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.280.0390.0073.870.220.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.0078.050.220.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.030.0039.41-0.28-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0049.500.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.280.0350.0050.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.230.0375.0068.680.110.01
Colorado St.MWC0.280.03100.0078.050.280.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.230.030.0012.36-0.23-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.310.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.280.0340.0028.86-0.06-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.19-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.250.0328.5736.95-0.11-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.670.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0357.1470.590.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.01
ElonCAA0.280.0337.5047.87-0.07-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.250.0330.0029.80-0.10-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.250.0362.5071.290.060.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.250.0330.0043.91-0.10-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.280.0388.8963.800.220.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0342.8652.71-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.69-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.660.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.090.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.250.030.0033.84-0.25-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.910.000.00
ToledoMAC0.250.0360.0059.420.050.01
UMKCWAC0.280.0322.2241.92-0.15-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.280.0320.0041.46-0.17-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.270.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.54-0.00-0.01