live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Xavier

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:55.8
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:48
Current SOS:44
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:8.83%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-829.21.04%
21-936.68.49%
20-1045.727.36%
19-1156.335.26%
18-1268.521.20%
17-1382.25.82%
16-1494.70.80%
15-15106.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Morgan St. (264.2)MEACH74-63W100%0.0
11-15IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)SumH86-63W100%0.0
11-18Miami OH (210.4)MACH66-60W100%0.0
11-25Georgia (132.0)SECH70-56W100%0.0
11-28Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA70-82W100%0.0
12-3Purdue (65.0)B10H66-63W100%0.0
12-7Butler (143.2)HorzA61-73W100%0.0
12-10Cincinnati (89.8)BEH76-53W100%0.0
12-18Oral Roberts (43.6)SumH42-64L0%0.0
12-22Long Beach St. (39.1)BWN58-68L0%0.0
12-23Hawaii (184.5)WACA84-82L0%0.0
12-25Southern Illinois (227.1)MVCN77-87W100%0.0
12-31Gonzaga (27.9)WCCH65-72L0%0.0
1-4La Salle (69.1)A10A80-70L0%0.0
1-7Fordham (243.2)A10A59-67W100%0.0
1-11Duquesne (79.5)A10H78-50W100%0.0
1-14St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10H77-64W100%0.0
1-18Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10H68-55W100%0.0
1-21Dayton (77.1)A10A87-72L0%0.0
1-25St. Louis (32.0)A10H68-73L0%0.0
1-28Charlotte (140.3)A10A70-74W100%0.0
2-1George Washington (196.4)A10A58-59W100%0.0
2-4Memphis (25.8)CUSAA72-68L0%0.0
2-8Rhode Island (250.6)A10H0-094%16.6
2-11Temple (24.4)A10A0-030%-5.6
2-18Dayton (77.1)A10H0-068%5.2
2-21Massachusetts (76.4)A10A0-045%-1.5
2-25Richmond (135.3)A10H0-076%7.7
2-28St. Louis (32.0)A10A0-019%-9.6
3-3Charlotte (140.3)A10H0-081%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierA1026.1326.0263.8162.497.226.50
DaytonA102.523.8459.0960.610.460.82
St. LouisA102.523.8476.1976.721.322.05
CharlotteA102.463.8152.3852.390.120.18
DuquesneA102.422.2361.9058.360.580.37
Saint Joseph'sA102.472.2065.2264.570.750.64
RichmondA100.302.2050.0049.300.00-0.03
George WashingtonA102.422.2036.3633.19-0.66-0.74
TempleA100.332.2077.2775.250.181.11
Rhode IslandA100.292.1720.8321.07-0.17-1.26
La SalleA102.412.1769.5767.780.940.77
FordhamA102.372.1742.8635.74-0.34-0.62
St. BonaventureA102.422.1763.1661.250.640.49
MassachusettsA100.342.1773.9169.040.160.83
Miami OHMAC2.321.7831.5835.41-0.85-0.52
Oral RobertsSum2.281.7680.0080.111.371.06
PurdueB102.271.7568.1862.600.830.44
VanderbiltSEC2.281.7572.7368.061.040.63
GonzagaWCC2.311.7580.9580.831.431.08
GeorgiaSEC2.271.7547.6242.62-0.11-0.26
IUPU Fort WayneSum2.261.7536.8436.72-0.60-0.46
CincinnatiBE2.281.7272.7367.661.040.61
MemphisCUSA2.221.7268.1870.560.810.71
Southern IllinoisMVC2.221.7236.3633.21-0.61-0.58
ButlerHorz2.271.7252.1752.560.100.09
HawaiiWAC2.221.7055.0051.380.220.05
Morgan St.MEAC2.221.6926.3238.97-1.05-0.37
Long Beach St.BW2.171.6770.0072.360.870.75
VillanovaBE0.190.1945.4546.08-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.200.1752.6348.410.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.160.1768.4266.450.060.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.200.1747.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.200.1742.1149.81-0.03-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.250.1740.9142.96-0.05-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.240.1741.6740.61-0.04-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.240.1645.4544.66-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.1573.9175.490.120.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1459.0957.760.030.02
IllinoisB100.150.1472.7364.430.070.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1481.8280.430.090.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1465.0060.020.040.03
DavidsonSC0.100.1476.1976.760.050.07
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.1444.4441.71-0.01-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.190.1478.2672.660.110.06
AlabamaSEC0.190.1468.1869.100.070.05
PacificBW0.160.1235.0037.47-0.05-0.03
IUPUISum0.150.1234.7835.50-0.05-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.140.1234.7835.20-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1261.9063.520.050.03
OaklandSum0.140.1248.0050.21-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.140.1226.3228.83-0.07-0.05
Southern UtahSum0.150.1245.4544.30-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1256.5253.100.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1265.2263.610.050.03
AkronMAC0.100.1268.1867.910.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.160.1236.3638.48-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1235.2939.85-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.1228.5734.20-0.02-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1245.4544.02-0.02-0.01
PortlandWCC0.150.1121.7421.70-0.08-0.07
AuburnSEC0.200.1156.5248.810.03-0.00
CreightonMVC0.090.1187.5085.410.070.08
PittsburghBE0.190.1160.8758.160.040.02
Murray St.OVC0.150.11100.0094.550.150.10
ArkansasSEC0.100.1169.5765.150.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.1130.4326.44-0.02-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1156.5254.220.010.01
OklahomaB120.140.1159.0954.700.030.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.1130.0030.06-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.100.1163.6456.710.030.01
Penn St.B100.140.1141.6738.67-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1182.6177.630.060.06
KentuckySEC0.050.1195.8392.570.050.09
Seton HallBE0.090.1165.2263.740.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.1140.9139.56-0.01-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.160.0950.0056.760.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.0921.0522.46-0.09-0.05
IdahoWAC0.100.0947.6251.08-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.110.0981.8277.200.070.05
UC DavisBW0.100.090.005.37-0.10-0.08
Chicago St.GWC0.090.094.769.95-0.09-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0920.0019.96-0.03-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0937.5038.33-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0938.8943.93-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.150.0931.8233.83-0.05-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0956.5253.770.010.01
SienaMAAC0.100.0945.4545.55-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0955.0057.410.010.01
Kansas St.B120.150.0972.7368.280.070.03
IowaB100.150.0954.1749.440.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.095.267.30-0.08-0.07
BradleyMVC0.140.0924.0024.86-0.07-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0982.6180.420.060.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0830.0037.30-0.04-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0854.1757.200.010.01
RadfordBSth0.100.088.7013.10-0.08-0.06
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0819.0521.29-0.06-0.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.140.0835.0039.38-0.04-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.140.0839.1342.12-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.140.0890.4887.910.110.06
NortheasternCAA0.090.0847.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.150.0865.2262.650.040.02
SyracuseBE0.140.0895.8392.010.130.07
DetroitHorz0.140.0847.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.100.0876.1972.910.050.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0868.0070.030.050.03
St. John'sBE0.100.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0833.3337.16-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.090.0869.5761.310.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0847.8343.66-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0875.0075.780.050.04
UABCUSA0.090.0840.9139.82-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0833.3335.97-0.05-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0840.0040.18-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.090.0854.5556.840.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0848.0051.88-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.090.0873.9175.000.040.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0871.4366.600.020.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.0880.9577.380.090.04
IonaMAAC0.090.0879.1780.100.050.05
MarquetteBE0.050.0879.1775.980.030.04
MichiganB100.090.0872.7366.810.040.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0859.0959.720.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0665.0066.700.020.02
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0639.1344.52-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0671.4369.050.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0642.8643.45-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0670.0073.280.020.03
NevadaWAC0.050.0680.9576.420.030.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.110.0682.6181.440.070.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0669.5768.900.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0668.1869.680.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0633.3337.25-0.04-0.02
San Jose St.WAC0.100.0627.2726.95-0.05-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0610.0014.93-0.08-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0655.5658.010.010.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0650.0052.930.000.00
ClemsonACC0.100.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0640.9144.03-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.0677.2773.450.060.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0652.3857.860.000.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0625.0025.13-0.05-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0638.1040.81-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.100.0666.6768.550.030.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0675.0076.000.020.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0652.1750.090.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0652.3852.860.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0662.5062.060.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.068.7011.67-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0661.9067.230.010.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0681.8281.030.030.04
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0662.5061.500.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0631.8242.13-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0660.0062.490.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0669.5766.540.020.02
BelmontASun0.100.0669.5773.280.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0640.9138.38-0.02-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0627.2727.21-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0670.8364.420.040.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0686.9685.460.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0656.5255.200.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0612.5013.44-0.04-0.04
George MasonCAA0.050.0676.0072.500.030.03
Longwoodind0.050.0630.0027.84-0.02-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.100.0628.0028.91-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.090.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0675.0074.610.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.5554.300.000.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0639.1336.10-0.01-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0654.5556.090.000.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0656.5257.720.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0650.0051.530.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0545.4545.70-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0547.8350.65-0.000.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.000.0559.0957.280.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0578.2672.340.030.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0547.6246.46-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0560.8761.370.000.01
TowsonCAA0.050.054.005.26-0.04-0.05
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0580.0078.060.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0565.2263.790.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0517.3924.41-0.06-0.03
LafayettePat0.090.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0552.3846.680.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0561.9055.140.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0556.5250.270.000.00
RutgersBE0.050.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.090.0538.1037.86-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.090.0585.7182.180.070.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0560.8759.050.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.090.0565.2265.170.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0051.730.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.05-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0319.0522.37-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0318.1822.22-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0313.6416.35-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.040.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.050.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0322.2227.62-0.03-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.02-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
DukeACC0.000.0386.3683.090.000.02
ElonSC0.000.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0372.7371.710.000.01
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0334.7838.77-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.000.0359.0950.820.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.000.0333.3338.38-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.000.0356.5257.150.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
UtahP120.000.0318.1815.01-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0327.2723.80-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0379.1778.100.030.02
Georgia St.CAA0.000.0366.6769.690.000.01
HartfordAE0.050.0317.3920.97-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0332.0035.39-0.00-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0319.0525.52-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0343.4843.82-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.480.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.000.0360.0058.290.000.00
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.160.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.0045.89-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.000.0343.4843.31-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.040.0357.1460.750.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.000.0361.9058.590.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0354.5556.790.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0375.0073.970.020.01
YaleIvy0.000.0372.2263.190.000.01