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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:30.0
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:21-13
Expected Record:21-13
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1330.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH93-60W100%0.0
11-18Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH97-74W100%0.0
11-21Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH81-63W100%0.0
11-24Murray St. (63.0)OVCH89-62W100%0.0
11-27San Diego (157.0)WCCN82-71W100%0.0
11-28UTEP (78.0)CUSAN73-77L0%0.0
11-30Long Beach St. (111.0)BWN73-70L0%0.0
12-6Alabama (85.0)SECH97-84W100%0.0
12-9IUPUI (260.0)SumH66-43W100%0.0
12-13Missouri (218.0)SECA58-74W100%0.0
12-20Auburn (129.0)SECA89-88L0%0.0
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH71-57W100%0.0
12-31Georgetown (25.0)BEH70-53W100%0.0
1-3DePaul (197.0)BEA71-68L0%0.0
1-7Seton Hall (97.0)BEH69-58W100%0.0
1-10Butler (31.0)BEA88-76L0%0.0
1-14Villanova (3.0)BEA88-75L0%0.0
1-17Marquette (147.0)BEH62-58W100%0.0
1-22Providence (22.0)BEA69-66L0%0.0
1-24DePaul (197.0)BEH89-76W100%0.0
1-27Georgetown (25.0)BEA53-66W100%0.0
1-31Seton Hall (97.0)BEA90-82L0%0.0
2-4Creighton (151.0)BEH72-79L0%0.0
2-7Providence (22.0)BEH78-69W100%0.0
2-10Marquette (147.0)BEA44-64W100%0.0
2-14St. John's (44.0)BEH70-78L0%0.0
2-18Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA57-59W100%0.0
2-21Butler (31.0)BEH73-56W100%0.0
2-23St. John's (44.0)BEA58-57L0%0.0
2-28Villanova (3.0)BEH66-78L0%0.0
3-7Creighton (151.0)BEA73-74W100%0.0
3-12Butler (31.0)BEN61-67W100%0.0
3-13Georgetown (25.0)BEN65-63W100%0.0
3-14Villanova (3.0)BEN69-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.5226.5260.9660.965.815.81
GeorgetownBE5.345.3475.0075.002.672.67
VillanovaBE5.335.3393.5593.554.654.65
ButlerBE5.315.3172.4172.412.382.38
CreightonBE3.933.9341.9441.94-0.63-0.63
ProvidenceBE3.933.9367.7467.741.391.39
MarquetteBE3.923.9243.3343.33-0.52-0.52
St. John'sBE3.903.9062.0762.070.940.94
DePaulBE3.863.8636.6736.67-1.03-1.03
Seton HallBE3.853.8551.7251.720.130.13
Long Beach St.BW3.013.0144.8344.83-0.31-0.31
AuburnSEC1.571.5739.3939.39-0.33-0.33
AlabamaSEC1.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
MissouriSEC1.541.5426.6726.67-0.72-0.72
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.521.5289.6689.661.201.20
CincinnatiAmer1.471.4770.9770.970.620.62
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.471.4767.8667.860.530.53
IUPUISum1.471.4733.3333.33-0.49-0.49
Murray St.OVC1.471.4786.2186.211.061.06
Northern ArizonaBSky1.471.4758.0658.060.240.24
San DiegoWCC1.471.4748.2848.28-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA1.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
TennesseeSEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.180.18100.00100.000.180.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1852.9452.940.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
FloridaSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
SyracuseACC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
MississippiSEC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
NJITind0.160.1656.0056.000.020.02
HawaiiBW0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
OklahomaB120.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.120.1210.0010.00-0.09-0.09
North TexasCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
LehighPat0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.090.0979.3179.310.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
IllinoisB100.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0758.3358.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
BucknellPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0416.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
NavyPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00