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Through games of Feb 26, 2015.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:34.2
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:20
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:8-8
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:10.28%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1126.528.42%
19-1233.953.48%
18-1347.018.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Arizona (166.7)BSkyH93-60W100%0.0
11-18Long Beach St. (115.6)BWH97-74W100%0.0
11-21Stephen F. Austin (47.5)SlndH81-63W100%0.0
11-24Murray St. (66.1)OVCH89-62W100%0.0
11-27San Diego (157.2)WCCN82-71W100%0.0
11-28UTEP (66.5)CUSAN73-77L0%0.0
11-30Long Beach St. (115.6)BWN73-70L0%0.0
12-6Alabama (78.9)SECH97-84W100%0.0
12-9IUPUI (246.3)SumH66-43W100%0.0
12-13Missouri (206.4)SECA58-74W100%0.0
12-20Auburn (152.4)SECA89-88L0%0.0
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (111.8)ASunH71-57W100%0.0
12-31Georgetown (21.7)BEH70-53W100%0.0
1-3DePaul (173.5)BEA71-68L0%0.0
1-7Seton Hall (80.9)BEH69-58W100%0.0
1-10Butler (23.1)BEA88-76L0%0.0
1-14Villanova (4.2)BEA88-75L0%0.0
1-17Marquette (149.0)BEH62-58W100%0.0
1-22Providence (24.3)BEA69-66L0%0.0
1-24DePaul (173.5)BEH89-76W100%0.0
1-27Georgetown (21.7)BEA53-66W100%0.0
1-31Seton Hall (80.9)BEA90-82L0%0.0
2-4Creighton (129.3)BEH72-79L0%0.0
2-7Providence (24.3)BEH78-69W100%0.0
2-10Marquette (149.0)BEA44-64W100%0.0
2-14St. John's (42.4)BEH70-78L0%0.0
2-18Cincinnati (44.0)AmerA57-59W100%0.0
2-21Butler (23.1)BEH73-56W100%0.0
2-23St. John's (42.4)BEA58-57L0%0.0
2-28Villanova (4.2)BEH0-041%-2.5
3-7Creighton (129.3)BEA0-070%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.4226.3661.5460.956.105.78
ButlerBE4.214.1373.0872.331.941.84
St. John'sBE4.234.1364.0061.421.180.94
GeorgetownBE4.194.1275.0072.782.101.88
CreightonBE2.574.0844.4442.87-0.29-0.58
DePaulBE4.214.0840.7439.58-0.78-0.85
ProvidenceBE4.144.0869.2368.251.591.49
VillanovaBE2.574.0892.5992.182.193.44
MarquetteBE4.144.0744.0044.11-0.50-0.48
Seton HallBE4.174.0756.0054.980.500.41
Long Beach St.BW3.553.3140.0044.11-0.71-0.39
AuburnSEC1.821.7238.4637.36-0.42-0.43
AlabamaSEC1.821.6961.5459.450.420.32
MissouriSEC1.791.6926.9227.60-0.83-0.76
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.791.6786.9686.871.321.23
CincinnatiAmer1.721.6170.3769.630.700.63
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.721.6172.0072.600.760.73
IUPUISum1.721.6135.7136.52-0.49-0.43
Murray St.OVC1.721.6188.4687.631.331.21
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.6157.6958.170.270.26
San DiegoWCC1.721.6148.1547.96-0.06-0.07
UTEPCUSA1.721.6169.2371.300.660.69
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2052.0052.970.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1974.0774.220.090.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1951.8551.810.010.01
KentuckySEC0.220.19100.0099.450.220.18
TennesseeSEC0.220.1951.8549.580.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.160.1967.8666.100.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.5460.520.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1666.6765.750.040.05
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1670.3769.470.050.06
NJITind0.160.1654.1754.130.010.01
SyracuseACC0.160.1664.2960.140.050.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1421.4322.23-0.06-0.08
FloridaSEC0.160.1446.4346.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1451.8551.850.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1360.7160.580.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.1348.0045.31-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1325.0024.65-0.08-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1375.0077.310.060.07
OklahomaB120.120.1370.3769.820.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1152.0053.140.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1138.4639.97-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1128.5728.29-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.130.1171.4369.470.050.04
GonzagaWCC0.130.1196.5596.180.120.10
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1157.6956.870.020.02
WisconsinB100.130.1189.2987.430.100.08
UCLAP120.130.1158.6260.540.020.02
DrakeMVC0.120.1128.5728.58-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.130.1165.5264.530.040.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1177.7877.760.070.06
ArkansasSEC0.130.1182.1478.240.080.06
Cal PolyBW0.130.1145.8345.37-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.1126.9225.83-0.03-0.05
HawaiiBW0.130.1160.7160.790.030.02
LSUSEC0.130.1171.4369.990.050.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1140.7439.82-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.1134.6235.46-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.130.1124.0025.41-0.07-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.130.1124.0026.17-0.07-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1146.1547.77-0.01-0.00
UC DavisBW0.130.1179.1777.270.070.06
UC IrvineBW0.130.1160.0059.760.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.1148.0046.54-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1155.5656.260.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.130.1125.9328.09-0.06-0.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1164.2963.500.040.03
MaineAE0.130.1110.7110.50-0.10-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1140.7440.86-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.090.1146.4345.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.1150.0049.870.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.1076.9273.060.030.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.1015.3815.96-0.06-0.07
LehighPat0.090.1055.5654.860.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.1068.9768.670.040.04
LipscombASun0.100.0936.0037.68-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.0959.2660.570.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0922.2222.17-0.06-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0939.2940.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0865.0063.570.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0851.8552.040.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0870.3770.390.040.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.0830.4332.32-0.04-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0842.8645.64-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0855.5656.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.0837.9338.95-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0857.1456.560.010.01
OhioMAC0.090.0834.6233.72-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0862.9664.060.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.084.004.83-0.06-0.07
HoustonAmer0.090.0833.3335.14-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0860.7158.880.010.01
Arizona St.P120.100.0853.5754.190.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0851.8552.250.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0824.0022.68-0.03-0.04
UTSACUSA0.100.0845.8346.23-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.0855.5654.230.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0889.2988.690.080.06
ColoradoP120.090.0844.4444.97-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0860.7161.240.010.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0846.4346.69-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0859.2658.430.020.01
NebraskaB100.060.0846.4345.05-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0864.2964.460.030.02
VCUA100.060.0875.0074.480.030.04
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0622.2221.87-0.02-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0638.4638.56-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0623.0822.37-0.04-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0665.3865.140.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0635.0034.29-0.01-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0643.4842.11-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0654.5554.770.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0678.2677.330.020.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0642.3140.94-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0625.0030.33-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.0015.15-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0661.5462.360.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0664.2963.560.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0630.7734.56-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0637.0436.30-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0681.4880.340.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0058.430.010.01
KansasB120.070.0678.5776.450.040.03
PacificWCC0.060.0634.6234.06-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0662.9663.060.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0651.7252.280.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0637.0436.49-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0668.9768.490.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0542.8644.45-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0545.8346.48-0.01-0.00
ArizonaP120.060.0589.2987.910.050.04
DenverSum0.060.0542.8642.65-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0589.2988.120.050.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0522.2224.13-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.060.0532.0032.35-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0553.8553.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0542.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0516.0017.21-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.060.0548.0049.56-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0548.2846.44-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0542.8642.49-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0575.0076.170.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0578.5776.950.040.03
MercerSC0.060.0550.0050.620.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0567.8665.890.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0557.1456.730.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0525.0025.95-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0550.0050.940.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0562.9665.170.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0525.0026.22-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0566.6766.670.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0544.0045.59-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0571.4371.530.030.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0552.1751.310.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0567.8664.720.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0533.3332.60-0.01-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0534.4833.30-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0566.6764.500.010.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0544.8345.10-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0528.0029.37-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.060.0560.7160.420.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0537.5039.20-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0525.0024.46-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0571.4370.870.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0514.2916.10-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0533.3334.43-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0540.0039.77-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0555.1754.540.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0567.8667.600.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0559.2658.320.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0532.1432.12-0.01-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0538.4638.60-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0551.7250.710.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0517.8618.91-0.04-0.03
La SalleA100.030.0553.5753.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0539.2939.90-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0555.1756.090.000.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0564.2963.100.020.01
MichiganB100.030.0550.0050.000.00-0.00
NavyPat0.060.0535.7135.96-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0567.8667.610.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0540.0040.27-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0550.0048.140.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0582.7681.310.040.03
PennIvy0.030.0530.4330.03-0.01-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0572.0070.730.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0544.4442.95-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0581.4880.500.040.03
StanfordP120.060.0566.6764.450.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0524.0023.95-0.02-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0542.3142.56-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0568.0068.020.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0323.0822.71-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0374.0774.330.020.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0379.3179.020.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0317.8618.19-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.2962.960.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0325.0024.40-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0374.0773.870.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0335.7134.86-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0331.8237.72-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0319.0521.41-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0393.1090.930.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0338.4641.61-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0331.0332.37-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.7110.56-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.040.0339.1340.63-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.0873.180.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.705.04-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0334.6234.47-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0324.0025.19-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.5653.670.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0382.1481.330.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0372.0072.050.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0339.2939.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.0026.59-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0342.3141.77-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0366.6767.480.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.3141.62-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0348.0048.60-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0341.6744.38-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0374.0773.060.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0366.6764.480.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0352.0053.960.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.7730.30-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0356.0055.800.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0322.2221.98-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0359.2659.120.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.5461.350.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.7878.470.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.1458.580.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0325.9327.35-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0342.3143.33-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.5657.580.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0341.3839.54-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0364.2963.780.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0351.8553.170.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0337.0438.77-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0344.4441.78-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0340.7441.43-0.01-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0352.0053.540.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.7161.360.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0351.8551.130.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0333.3332.95-0.01-0.01