live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Xavier

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:9.6
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:32
Current SOS:40
Current Record:21-3
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:9-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-32.63.57%
26-45.117.10%
25-57.831.98%
24-611.129.61%
23-715.013.82%
22-820.13.62%
21-927.40.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Xavier.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Miami OH (217.5)MACH81-72W100%0.0
11-17Missouri (222.4)SECH78-66W100%0.0
11-20Michigan (47.1)B10A70-86W100%0.0
11-23Northern Kentucky (247.3)HorzH78-66W100%0.0
11-26Alabama (70.1)SECN64-45W100%0.0
11-27USC (21.0)P12N77-87W100%0.0
11-29Dayton (13.0)A10N61-90W100%0.0
12-5Western Kentucky (177.2)CUSAH95-64W100%0.0
12-8Wright St. (157.3)HorzH90-55W100%0.0
12-12Cincinnati (47.3)AmerH65-55W100%0.0
12-19Auburn (166.4)SECH85-61W100%0.0
12-22Wake Forest (131.2)ACCA70-78W100%0.0
12-31Villanova (3.7)BEA95-64L0%0.0
1-2Butler (48.7)BEH88-69W100%0.0
1-6St. John's (232.4)BEA66-74W100%0.0
1-12DePaul (167.1)BEH84-64W100%0.0
1-16Marquette (115.6)BEA66-74W100%0.0
1-19Georgetown (70.3)BEH72-81L0%0.0
1-23Seton Hall (54.5)BEH84-76W100%0.0
1-26Providence (50.3)BEA68-75W100%0.0
1-30DePaul (167.1)BEA65-86W100%0.0
2-3St. John's (232.4)BEH90-83W100%0.0
2-6Marquette (115.6)BEH90-82W100%0.0
2-9Creighton (80.1)BEA70-56L0%0.0
2-13Butler (48.7)BEA0-041%-2.4
2-17Providence (50.3)BEH0-080%9.1
2-20Georgetown (70.3)BEA0-060%2.7
2-24Villanova (3.7)BEH0-045%-1.4
2-28Seton Hall (54.5)BEA0-054%1.0
3-5Creighton (80.1)BEH0-076%7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Xavier's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Xavier's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Xavier.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
XavierBE26.3126.3287.7481.9019.8616.79
ButlerBE2.814.2373.9171.821.341.85
CreightonBE2.694.2162.5062.050.671.01
GeorgetownBE2.774.2154.1751.650.230.14
MarquetteBE4.734.2169.5761.911.851.00
ProvidenceBE2.724.2175.0073.231.361.95
VillanovaBE2.684.2186.9687.511.983.16
DePaulBE4.634.2036.3636.44-1.26-1.14
Seton HallBE2.724.2073.9171.311.301.79
St. John'sBE4.674.2027.2725.12-2.12-2.09
AlabamaSEC2.221.7863.6457.900.600.28
Wright St.Horz2.181.7659.0959.050.400.32
Northern KentuckyHorz2.171.7535.0036.40-0.65-0.48
AuburnSEC2.171.7540.9136.67-0.39-0.47
Miami OHMAC2.171.7236.3634.19-0.59-0.54
CincinnatiAmer2.131.7275.0073.931.060.82
DaytonA102.171.7290.9184.981.781.20
MissouriSEC2.171.7234.7831.28-0.66-0.64
MichiganB102.131.7073.9169.021.020.65
USCP122.081.6781.8275.491.330.85
Wake ForestACC2.081.6743.4841.29-0.27-0.29
Western KentuckyCUSA2.081.6747.6247.87-0.10-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.350.2586.9680.370.260.15
VanderbiltSEC0.310.2258.3359.960.050.04
RutgersB100.260.2221.7420.34-0.15-0.13
GeorgiaSEC0.180.1959.0955.220.030.02
MississippiSEC0.180.1962.5058.920.040.03
LSUSEC0.220.1962.5059.050.050.03
IUPUISum0.210.1940.0039.76-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.175.007.22-0.16-0.15
George WashingtonA100.220.1775.0071.920.110.07
TennesseeSEC0.180.1750.0048.130.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.1650.0053.000.000.01
IndianaB100.220.1679.1774.060.130.08
TempleAmer0.130.1663.6459.710.030.03
NebraskaB100.170.1652.0050.780.010.00
Arizona St.P120.170.1654.1751.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.190.1547.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1530.4332.35-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.1443.4850.66-0.030.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1434.7840.89-0.04-0.03
KentuckySEC0.180.1475.0072.630.090.06
IowaB100.170.1482.6180.520.110.08
SyracuseACC0.170.1466.6762.560.060.03
StanfordP120.130.1450.0046.530.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.130.1425.0026.40-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1473.9172.580.060.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1440.9139.26-0.02-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1480.0081.160.110.08
WisconsinB100.120.1462.5056.960.030.02
ArizonaP120.130.1379.1778.330.080.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.1221.7422.74-0.05-0.06
Green BayHorz0.190.1254.5556.010.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1259.0959.650.030.02
OaklandHorz0.140.1268.0067.990.050.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1281.8283.030.060.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1150.0045.820.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.170.1150.0046.760.00-0.01
PurdueB100.090.1180.0077.960.050.06
WagnerNEC0.130.1163.6465.020.040.03
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1173.9176.740.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.1143.4843.76-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.130.1164.0062.090.040.03
AkronMAC0.090.1182.6181.130.060.07
Chicago St.WAC0.170.114.357.72-0.16-0.09
DukeACC0.090.1175.0071.800.040.05
La SalleA100.130.1119.0520.33-0.08-0.06
MarylandB100.090.1187.5083.690.060.07
NJITASun0.130.1154.1755.260.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.1158.3357.220.010.02
South FloridaAmer0.130.1120.0019.76-0.08-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.090.1175.0075.330.040.06
IllinoisB100.130.1145.8344.11-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.1131.5831.04-0.03-0.04
OklahomaB120.090.1186.9682.580.060.07
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.8762.080.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0971.4369.430.040.03
UABCUSA0.090.0982.6179.390.060.05
DrakeMVC0.130.0820.8323.19-0.08-0.05
DuquesneA100.140.0860.8756.360.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0850.0049.600.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.0860.0057.640.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.130.0869.5764.900.050.02
FordhamA100.130.0852.3850.750.010.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0882.6177.520.060.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0870.8367.820.040.03
UMBCAE0.130.0824.0026.33-0.07-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0831.8232.69-0.05-0.03
BelmontOVC0.130.0868.0066.660.050.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0833.3333.07-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0813.6413.63-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.050.0866.6766.330.020.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0817.3920.66-0.06-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0829.1726.73-0.02-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0854.1751.980.010.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0835.0038.52-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.0850.0054.190.000.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0880.0081.580.050.05
OregonP120.090.0882.6179.250.060.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0883.3381.320.030.05
SMUAmer0.090.0886.9682.900.060.05
UCLAP120.130.0856.5253.270.020.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0883.3378.470.060.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0613.6415.80-0.07-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0650.0051.190.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0656.5262.820.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0622.7327.18-0.05-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0633.3333.70-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1776.070.050.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5832.01-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0631.8230.15-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0690.4886.910.070.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0660.8757.160.010.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0612.0011.96-0.03-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0658.3358.370.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0660.0060.100.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0631.5831.74-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0652.9452.060.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.580.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0645.4551.39-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0625.0027.23-0.04-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0637.5037.41-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0624.0024.57-0.05-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0663.6461.480.000.01
RichmondA100.040.0656.5255.730.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0634.7832.42-0.01-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0640.9143.25-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0615.0015.32-0.03-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0672.7370.400.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0637.5043.37-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0631.8230.05-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.040.0623.8126.72-0.02-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.040.0652.0048.860.00-0.00
VMISC0.040.0615.0016.73-0.03-0.04
ColoradoP120.050.0569.5765.310.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.090.0558.3360.690.020.01
UCFAmer0.090.0550.0044.680.00-0.01
VCUA100.040.0573.9174.060.020.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0524.0025.67-0.04-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0514.2920.65-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.040.0521.7423.32-0.02-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0541.6739.46-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0559.0959.370.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0575.0076.190.020.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0550.0051.910.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0515.0018.11-0.06-0.03
HartfordAE0.040.0525.0026.74-0.02-0.03
HoustonAmer0.040.0570.8367.980.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0545.8343.68-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0533.3333.13-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0558.3359.360.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0561.9056.450.010.01
PennIvy0.040.0538.8937.69-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0525.0026.87-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.040.0550.0051.280.000.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0540.0042.12-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0523.8122.82-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0523.8127.73-0.04-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.16-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.040.0566.6764.730.010.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0565.2266.190.010.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0576.1973.410.020.03
WashingtonP120.090.0562.5060.110.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.0536.3631.98-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0527.7829.16-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.380.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.060.030.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.230.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.750.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.66-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0381.8282.620.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
BucknellPat0.040.0352.1754.960.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.650.030.02
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.060.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.42-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.040.0352.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.080.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.97-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.590.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.17-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.28-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.760.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.040.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.400.030.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.120.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.63-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.58-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.540.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.32-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0372.7367.630.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.010.01
TexasB120.040.0366.6762.210.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0342.8639.23-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0365.2262.830.000.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.970.000.00
Iowa St.B120.040.0370.8368.000.020.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0358.3356.290.010.00
LafayettePat0.050.0320.8321.68-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0358.3358.480.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.13-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0314.2924.86-0.03-0.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0336.0034.92-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
UtahP120.000.0370.8368.500.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.040.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01