Hartford

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	328.5
Current RPI:	325
Expected SOS:	319
Current SOS:	308
Current Record:	4-19
Expected Record:	6-23
Current Conf Record:	4-7
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-11
Current OOC Record:	0-12
Expected OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC RPI:	343
Expected OOC SOS:	299

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	299.0	0.02%
9-20	305.0	0.84%
8-21	314.0	6.82%
7-22	322.5	24.55%
6-23	330.0	38.60%
5-24	335.3	25.20%
4-25	338.4	3.96%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	N	50-70	L	0%	0.0
11-12	Penn St. (163.2)	B10	A	70-55	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	50-63	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	A	59-52	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	80-66	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	92-58	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	H	69-74	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	A	67-48	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	61-70	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	76-79	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	89-86	L	0%	0.0
12-31	La Salle (69.1)	A10	A	73-55	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	88-63	L	0%	0.0
1-5	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	56-49	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	59-72	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	57-69	W	100%	0.0
1-17	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	74-57	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	49-63	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	46-65	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	60-37	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	60-72	L	0%	0.0
2-1	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	52-51	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	82-56	L	0%	0.0
2-7	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	0-0		50%	-0.1
2-12	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	0-0		80%	9.2
2-15	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	0-0		34%	-4.5
2-18	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-21	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	0-0		13%	-12.2
2-25	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	0-0		8%	-15.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hartford	AE	26.39	26.34	18.69	21.80	-16.53	-14.85
Vermont	AE	5.10	4.41	56.52	59.90	0.66	0.87
New Hampshire	AE	5.04	4.39	33.33	37.67	-1.68	-1.08
Maine	AE	2.84	4.36	52.63	51.08	0.15	0.09
Albany	AE	4.99	4.35	56.52	57.69	0.65	0.67
Boston University	AE	2.94	4.35	45.83	48.82	-0.24	-0.10
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.89	4.34	14.29	15.70	-2.06	-2.98
Binghamton	AE	2.81	4.31	0.00	3.59	-2.81	-4.00
Stony Brook	AE	2.87	4.30	65.00	66.02	0.86	1.38
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.73	2.10	41.67	44.08	-0.46	-0.25
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.56	2.08	42.86	43.69	-0.37	-0.26
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.54	2.04	54.55	55.62	0.23	0.23
Brown	Ivy	2.64	2.03	23.81	21.17	-1.38	-1.17
Marist	MAAC	2.41	2.02	31.82	31.05	-0.88	-0.77
Niagara	MAAC	2.37	2.02	34.78	39.59	-0.72	-0.42
Yale	Ivy	2.55	1.96	70.59	61.72	1.05	0.46
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.45	1.93	22.73	26.05	-1.33	-0.92
Holy Cross	Pat	2.44	1.91	38.10	39.91	-0.58	-0.39
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.14	1.90	21.74	22.78	-0.08	-1.03
La Salle	A10	2.27	1.81	69.57	67.78	0.89	0.64
Penn St.	B10	2.22	1.75	39.13	36.62	-0.48	-0.47
Central Florida	CUSA	2.17	1.72	70.00	65.37	0.87	0.53
Cornell	Ivy	0.27	0.39	36.84	41.45	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.34	0.38	77.27	73.45	0.19	0.18
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.38	37.50	38.52	-0.06	-0.09
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.41	0.35	8.70	12.13	-0.34	-0.27
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.44	0.33	14.29	17.17	-0.32	-0.22
Long Island	NEC	0.37	0.32	70.83	71.05	0.15	0.13
Siena	MAAC	0.31	0.31	45.45	45.55	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.39	0.30	30.43	29.50	-0.15	-0.12
Bryant	NEC	0.35	0.30	8.33	10.86	-0.29	-0.23
Harvard	Ivy	0.34	0.30	90.48	87.91	0.28	0.22
Canisius	MAAC	0.19	0.29	17.39	19.81	-0.12	-0.18
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.37	0.29	56.52	55.95	0.05	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.34	0.27	30.43	26.44	-0.13	-0.13
Fairfield	MAAC	0.34	0.27	54.55	54.30	0.03	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.23	0.26	68.00	70.03	0.08	0.11
Manhattan	MAAC	0.28	0.26	68.00	69.07	0.10	0.10
Columbia	Ivy	0.15	0.25	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.02
Army	Pat	0.30	0.24	40.91	41.72	-0.05	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.25	0.24	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.30	0.24	20.83	20.60	-0.18	-0.14
Bucknell	Pat	0.23	0.23	73.91	75.00	0.11	0.12
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.23	0.23	21.74	22.76	-0.13	-0.13
Monmouth	NEC	0.32	0.23	28.00	28.91	-0.14	-0.10
Iona	MAAC	0.22	0.23	79.17	80.10	0.13	0.14
American	Pat	0.24	0.21	65.22	63.79	0.07	0.06
Towson	CAA	0.18	0.21	4.00	5.26	-0.17	-0.18
Northeastern	CAA	0.18	0.20	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.19	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.18	75.00	75.78	0.10	0.09
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.18	82.61	84.57	0.09	0.12
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.18	9.52	13.19	-0.19	-0.13
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.15	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.15	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.18	0.15	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.16	0.13	68.18	63.99	0.06	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.12	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.21	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.03	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.15	0.12	73.91	74.91	0.07	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.12	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.09
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.12	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.12	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.18	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.09	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.08	76.00	72.50	0.07	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.08	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.08	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.08	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.05
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.02	0.03
Texas	B12	0.04	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00