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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:327.0
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:307
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:328
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23327.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA75-60L0%0.0
11-15Niagara (275.0)MAACH82-78W100%0.0
11-16Rider (198.0)MAACH68-84L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (308.0)CAAA87-73L0%0.0
11-23Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH61-70L0%0.0
11-25Rutgers (177.0)B10A77-75L0%0.0
11-27North Texas (339.0)CUSAA81-78L0%0.0
11-30LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH68-75L0%0.0
12-3Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA79-87W100%0.0
12-7Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA99-79L0%0.0
12-9Boston College (219.0)ACCA63-65W100%0.0
12-13Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH70-66W100%0.0
12-22Navy (208.0)PatH63-54W100%0.0
12-28Davidson (93.0)A10A105-75L0%0.0
1-2Yale (128.0)IvyA88-72L0%0.0
1-8Vermont (46.0)AEA85-54L0%0.0
1-11UMBC (165.0)AEH68-84L0%0.0
1-14UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA71-55L0%0.0
1-16Maine (322.0)AEH54-44W100%0.0
1-19Stony Brook (176.0)AEA80-64L0%0.0
1-22New Hampshire (127.0)AEH56-81L0%0.0
1-25Binghamton (311.0)AEA76-55L0%0.0
1-28Albany (129.0)AEH61-74L0%0.0
2-4Vermont (46.0)AEH66-79L0%0.0
2-6Maine (322.0)AEA52-41L0%0.0
2-9UMBC (165.0)AEA77-84W100%0.0
2-12UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH87-84W100%0.0
2-15Stony Brook (176.0)AEH54-66L0%0.0
2-18New Hampshire (127.0)AEA82-52L0%0.0
2-22Binghamton (311.0)AEH76-69W100%0.0
2-25Albany (129.0)AEA80-62L0%0.0
3-1Albany (129.0)AEA100-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE26.3326.3327.8627.86-11.66-11.66
AlbanyAE5.545.5456.6756.670.740.74
VermontAE4.164.1683.8783.872.822.82
Stony BrookAE4.074.0755.1755.170.420.42
MaineAE4.054.0517.2417.24-2.65-2.65
New HampshireAE4.024.0255.5655.560.450.45
UMass LowellAE3.973.9732.1432.14-1.42-1.42
BinghamtonAE3.963.9629.6329.63-1.62-1.62
UMBCAE3.963.9657.6957.690.610.61
Central ConnecticutNEC1.871.8717.8617.86-1.20-1.20
LIU BrooklynNEC1.821.8260.0060.000.360.36
DartmouthIvy1.821.8226.9226.92-0.84-0.84
QuinnipiacMAAC1.801.8030.0030.00-0.72-0.72
YaleIvy1.791.7959.2659.260.330.33
NiagaraMAAC1.791.7931.2531.25-0.67-0.67
Sacred HeartNEC1.771.7741.9441.94-0.29-0.29
RutgersB101.721.7241.9441.94-0.28-0.28
DrexelCAA1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
RiderMAAC1.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
Boston CollegeACC1.671.6729.0329.03-0.70-0.70
North TexasCUSA1.641.6418.5218.52-1.03-1.03
NavyPat1.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA101.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
Appalachian St.SB1.591.5922.2222.22-0.88-0.88
BrownIvy0.360.3639.2939.29-0.08-0.08
MaristMAAC0.340.3425.0025.00-0.17-0.17
ColumbiaIvy0.340.3438.4638.46-0.08-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.300.3046.8846.88-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.290.2925.0025.00-0.15-0.15
BryantNEC0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
SienaMAAC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.260.2648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2355.8855.880.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2210.0010.00-0.18-0.18
NortheasternCAA0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
HarvardIvy0.210.2161.5461.540.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
PennIvy0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
ColgatePat0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
FordhamA100.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.1478.5778.570.080.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
LehighPat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.060.06
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
LafayettePat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01