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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:313.7
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:301
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19280.10.48%
10-20292.95.98%
9-21304.223.49%
8-22314.336.36%
7-23322.326.45%
6-24328.77.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Central Connecticut (350.4)NECA83-92W100%0.0
11-15Saint Louis (200.1)A10A85-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisville (15.9)ACCA87-52L0%0.0
11-19Saint Peter's (228.9)MAACA66-67W100%0.0
11-24Niagara (305.4)MAACH77-73W100%0.0
11-27North Florida (137.3)ASunH60-81L0%0.0
11-29St. Francis NY (282.9)NECH67-74L0%0.0
12-2Providence (44.6)BEA89-66L0%0.0
12-5Dartmouth (292.4)IvyA74-65L0%0.0
12-9Quinnipiac (267.8)MAACH66-68L0%0.0
12-12Holy Cross (291.7)PatH68-90L0%0.0
12-14Sacred Heart (275.5)NECH80-71W100%0.0
12-30Rider (219.5)MAACA82-80L0%0.0
1-2Yale (56.1)IvyH53-88L0%0.0
1-6UMass Lowell (275.2)AEA80-76L0%0.0
1-13Binghamton (307.3)AEA72-76W100%0.0
1-16Vermont (150.1)AEH68-83L0%0.0
1-18Stony Brook (45.7)AEH43-77L0%0.0
1-21UMBC (318.8)AEA87-98W100%0.0
1-24New Hampshire (199.8)AEA84-71L0%0.0
1-27Maine (300.9)AEH100-105L0%0.0
1-30Albany (90.4)AEH60-86L0%0.0
2-3UMass Lowell (275.2)AEH83-85L0%0.0
2-8Stony Brook (45.7)AEA0-01%-25.9
2-11Binghamton (307.3)AEH0-058%2.2
2-14Vermont (150.1)AEA0-07%-16.3
2-17UMBC (318.8)AEH0-051%0.3
2-20New Hampshire (199.8)AEH0-039%-3.0
2-24Maine (300.9)AEA0-036%-4.0
2-27Albany (90.4)AEA0-03%-19.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE26.2226.3227.2027.10-11.96-12.06
AlbanyAE2.904.2973.9174.271.392.08
VermontAE2.874.2752.1754.730.120.40
MaineAE2.854.2631.8230.43-1.04-1.67
UMass LowellAE4.834.2025.0027.49-2.41-1.89
New HampshireAE2.704.2052.6350.980.140.08
BinghamtonAE2.714.1722.7324.95-1.48-2.09
UMBCAE2.664.1525.0026.54-1.33-1.95
Stony BrookAE2.704.1480.0081.351.622.59
QuinnipiacMAAC2.592.0635.0035.26-0.78-0.61
Central ConnecticutNEC2.521.9913.6414.02-1.83-1.43
St. Francis NYNEC2.561.9534.7841.40-0.78-0.34
NiagaraMAAC2.471.9526.0926.32-1.18-0.92
Sacred HeartNEC2.571.9336.3638.39-0.70-0.45
DartmouthIvy2.321.9027.7829.15-1.03-0.79
Holy CrossPat2.421.9036.3636.12-0.66-0.53
YaleIvy2.361.9072.2273.651.050.90
RiderMAAC2.471.8639.1341.65-0.54-0.31
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.361.8640.0043.46-0.47-0.24
LouisvilleACC2.321.7581.8276.981.480.95
Saint LouisA102.311.7535.0031.11-0.69-0.66
North FloridaASun2.321.7563.6465.920.630.56
ProvidenceBE2.221.6973.9169.971.060.68
MaristMAAC0.440.4019.0521.34-0.27-0.23
BrownIvy0.450.3831.5831.01-0.17-0.15
NJITASun0.430.3854.1755.260.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.440.3547.8348.91-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.380.3466.6767.270.130.12
CornellIvy0.360.3342.1140.20-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.400.3225.0026.38-0.20-0.15
Boston UniversityPat0.340.3254.1755.580.030.04
FairfieldMAAC0.400.3152.1753.070.020.02
WagnerNEC0.420.3163.6465.020.120.09
Boston CollegeACC0.390.2930.4326.49-0.15-0.14
ColgatePat0.280.2945.4546.10-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2850.0049.440.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.2840.0045.51-0.05-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.300.2641.6743.87-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.260.2472.2274.710.120.12
ConnecticutAmer0.290.2472.7372.450.130.11
HarvardIvy0.250.2335.0038.53-0.08-0.05
IonaMAAC0.290.2259.0959.660.050.04
MonmouthMAAC0.200.2279.1780.780.120.14
ManhattanMAAC0.180.2245.0043.21-0.02-0.03
PennIvy0.210.2138.8937.66-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.2050.0051.910.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.140.2070.0069.100.060.07
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1966.6765.220.060.06
AmericanPat0.150.1830.4331.88-0.06-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.140.1734.7837.18-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.140.1752.1753.360.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1728.0030.73-0.08-0.07
St. John'sBE0.180.1626.0923.73-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.160.1533.3337.25-0.05-0.04
Notre DameACC0.150.1569.5765.850.060.05
LafayettePat0.190.1422.7324.04-0.10-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.150.1422.7324.97-0.08-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.1245.8346.65-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.150.1173.9169.840.070.05
FordhamA100.090.1155.0052.290.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.1159.0958.900.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1136.8441.46-0.04-0.02
MarquetteBE0.090.1162.5056.260.020.01
Michigan St.B100.140.1183.3383.010.090.07
NavyPat0.140.1162.5062.440.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.190.1156.5256.620.020.01
DuquesneA100.150.1163.6456.370.040.01
SMUAmer0.110.0990.4885.570.090.07
HofstraCAA0.100.0968.1865.290.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0945.4546.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.150.0966.6763.430.050.02
RutgersB100.150.0921.7420.35-0.08-0.05
IllinoisB100.150.0947.8344.55-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0940.9145.30-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0921.7423.40-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.100.0986.3682.350.070.06
VCUA100.100.0973.9173.910.050.04
DukeACC0.060.0873.9170.060.030.03
TowsonCAA0.090.0865.2259.750.030.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0873.9171.570.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0843.4840.60-0.01-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0631.5831.81-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5260.000.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0647.6252.06-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0625.0029.27-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0623.8127.69-0.05-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0622.7323.25-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.0678.2674.360.060.03
BucknellPat0.090.0654.5558.150.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.970.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0665.2266.080.010.02
George MasonA100.050.0634.7834.21-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.550.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.8320.12-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0642.8650.39-0.010.00
La SalleA100.050.0520.0020.47-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0540.9139.32-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0582.6178.860.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0552.3847.050.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.090.0569.5767.220.040.02
Cal PolyBW0.040.0530.0034.56-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0562.5059.780.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.7834.45-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.1752.340.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0554.5552.810.000.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0538.1040.73-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0530.4335.11-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0528.5726.96-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0576.1968.220.020.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0586.9686.370.070.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.6178.050.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0591.3084.380.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0366.6767.680.020.01
StanfordP120.060.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0378.2673.060.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.59-0.03-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.280.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.47-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0338.8945.64-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.450.010.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.340.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.550.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.65-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.500.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.350.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.310.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.210.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.74-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.880.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.230.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.030.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0380.9575.490.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.76-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.100.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.570.000.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01