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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:327.4
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:312
Current SOS:316
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-13
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:3-12
Expected OOC RPI:345
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15224.80.04%
15-16243.30.09%
14-17263.00.27%
13-18279.41.24%
12-19294.43.05%
11-20306.27.42%
10-21316.412.65%
9-22324.818.37%
8-23331.519.70%
7-24336.717.32%
6-25340.711.66%
5-26343.85.74%
4-27346.01.97%
3-28347.50.43%
2-29349.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Central Connecticut (313.7)NECA75-60L0%0.0
11-15Niagara (267.5)MAACH82-78W100%0.0
11-16Rider (205.6)MAACH68-84L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (222.0)CAAA87-73L0%0.0
11-23Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH61-70L0%0.0
11-25Rutgers (168.4)B10A77-75L0%0.0
11-27North Texas (299.2)CUSAA81-78L0%0.0
11-30LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECH68-75L0%0.0
12-3Sacred Heart (320.3)NECA79-87W100%0.0
12-7Quinnipiac (255.0)MAACA0-023%-8.8
12-9Boston College (233.9)ACCA0-014%-12.9
12-13Dartmouth (319.5)IvyH0-055%1.4
12-22Navy (264.2)PatH0-043%-2.2
12-28Davidson (68.7)A10A0-03%-23.1
1-2Yale (108.7)IvyA0-05%-19.2
1-8Vermont (86.8)AEA0-05%-19.2
1-11UMBC (207.9)AEH0-036%-4.2
1-14UMass Lowell (265.7)AEA0-025%-7.9
1-16Maine (313.9)AEH0-062%3.5
1-19Stony Brook (275.0)AEA0-026%-7.6
1-22New Hampshire (143.1)AEH0-029%-6.6
1-25Binghamton (256.1)AEA0-029%-6.6
1-28Albany (147.3)AEH0-023%-9.0
2-4Vermont (86.8)AEH0-014%-12.9
2-6Maine (313.9)AEA0-041%-2.8
2-9UMBC (207.9)AEA0-019%-10.4
2-12UMass Lowell (265.7)AEH0-044%-1.7
2-15Stony Brook (275.0)AEH0-046%-1.3
2-18New Hampshire (143.1)AEA0-014%-12.9
2-22Binghamton (256.1)AEH0-049%-0.3
2-25Albany (147.3)AEA0-010%-15.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE28.6926.3123.2626.21-15.34-12.52
MaineAE0.864.1314.2922.39-0.61-2.28
VermontAE0.004.1062.5069.970.001.64
UMass LowellAE0.404.0922.2236.59-0.22-1.10
Stony BrookAE0.004.0628.5736.23-0.00-1.12
AlbanyAE0.004.0442.8659.51-0.000.77
BinghamtonAE0.464.0350.0042.210.00-0.63
New HampshireAE0.004.0357.1457.270.000.59
UMBCAE0.004.0380.0053.130.000.25
Central ConnecticutNEC5.561.9420.0030.52-3.33-0.76
DartmouthIvy0.001.900.0019.60-0.00-1.15
LIU BrooklynNEC5.561.8866.6754.301.850.16
QuinnipiacMAAC0.001.8528.5735.57-0.00-0.53
YaleIvy0.001.8342.8662.17-0.000.45
Sacred HeartNEC5.561.8342.8634.86-0.79-0.55
NiagaraMAAC6.761.8328.5736.26-2.90-0.50
RutgersB106.711.7883.3343.484.48-0.23
DrexelCAA6.761.7542.8638.55-0.97-0.40
RiderMAAC5.561.7540.0047.10-1.11-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.001.7257.1427.910.00-0.76
North TexasCUSA6.651.6920.0027.87-3.99-0.75
NavyPat0.001.6725.0036.66-0.00-0.45
DavidsonA100.461.6471.4361.950.200.39
Appalachian St.SB5.561.640.0027.10-5.56-0.75
BrownIvy0.810.3755.5646.970.09-0.02
MaristMAAC0.350.3544.4434.65-0.04-0.11
ColumbiaIvy0.000.3442.8642.62-0.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.000.3125.0047.82-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.2928.5729.95-0.00-0.12
Holy CrossPat0.000.2837.5047.37-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2733.3339.94-0.00-0.06
SienaMAAC0.000.2737.5052.01-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.400.2542.8654.90-0.060.02
Loyola MDPat0.400.2542.8645.94-0.06-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.400.2450.0044.400.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.460.2433.3354.47-0.150.02
FairfieldMAAC0.810.2471.4359.880.350.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2211.1148.19-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2214.2926.74-0.00-0.10
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2137.5044.39-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.460.2033.3356.57-0.150.03
HarvardIvy0.000.2020.0046.79-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.2042.8653.19-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1975.0056.590.000.03
HofstraCAA0.350.1962.5043.220.09-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1916.6739.78-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.350.1875.0070.620.170.08
ColgatePat0.000.1712.5029.71-0.00-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1785.7162.990.000.04
FordhamA100.810.1650.0041.310.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1622.2241.71-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.350.1657.1464.030.050.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1625.0034.40-0.00-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1657.1450.420.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1512.5037.99-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.1412.5030.68-0.00-0.06
LehighPat0.000.1442.8666.67-0.000.05
RichmondA100.000.1450.0048.210.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1225.0063.27-0.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.1214.2931.35-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.000.1244.4442.03-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.460.1271.4351.460.200.00
ArmyPat0.000.1142.8650.09-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.1175.0073.060.000.05
HamptonMEAC0.460.1114.2942.67-0.33-0.02
DukeACC0.460.1188.8978.400.360.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1166.6761.550.000.03
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.330.000.02
NJITASun0.000.1150.0049.780.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.350.1133.3333.36-0.12-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1171.4358.600.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1166.6746.420.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0975.0064.920.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.460.0962.5067.390.120.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0971.4368.050.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0925.0030.23-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5069.130.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0850.0041.990.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0837.5037.03-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0820.0021.80-0.00-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0051.040.000.00
Seton HallBE0.460.0871.4354.560.200.01
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.490.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.350.0833.3352.21-0.120.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.180.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.350.0542.8646.48-0.05-0.00
La SalleA100.350.0566.6755.540.120.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0587.5081.960.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0571.4370.390.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.440.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.360.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.740.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0571.4359.470.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0571.4370.210.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0542.8658.58-0.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7178.280.000.03
IowaB100.000.0537.5037.74-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0533.3348.07-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0587.5068.020.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0025.23-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0575.0066.170.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.860.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.850.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.100.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3346.01-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0577.7876.040.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.050.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.400.0575.0066.100.200.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.350.050.0035.95-0.35-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0077.380.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0571.4366.700.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0575.0054.490.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0342.8660.54-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.460.0340.0041.12-0.09-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.460.0328.5723.12-0.20-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5076.230.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.23-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.460.0387.5062.040.350.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
DePaulBE0.400.0366.6735.430.13-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.400.0325.0043.41-0.20-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.11-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.400.0314.2938.26-0.28-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
ArizonaP120.350.0375.0068.370.170.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.0316.6739.20-0.23-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.350.0333.3332.35-0.12-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.460.0357.1433.230.07-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01