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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:253.6
Current RPI:244
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:294
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11185.60.05%
17-12201.11.00%
16-13216.84.31%
15-14230.612.98%
14-15244.225.11%
13-16258.129.59%
12-17272.019.19%
11-18286.56.98%
10-19298.60.78%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Central Connecticut (253.0)NECH85-84W100%0.0
11-15Rider (104.8)MAACA89-53L0%0.0
11-18LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECN84-86L0%0.0
11-19Miami OH (185.3)MACN58-68W100%0.0
11-24Bryant (330.9)NECH73-78L0%0.0
11-26Wagner (144.0)NECH50-72L0%0.0
11-30LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECA79-78L0%0.0
12-2Boston College (100.1)ACCH61-73L0%0.0
12-7Quinnipiac (303.1)MAACH77-75W100%0.0
12-11Sacred Heart (315.8)NECH86-72W100%0.0
12-19Portland (258.1)WCCA78-67L0%0.0
12-22FIU (288.5)CUSAA72-79W100%0.0
12-28Rutgers (188.3)B10A58-60W100%0.0
1-3Albany (118.3)AEA64-72W100%0.0
1-6Stony Brook (197.0)AEH61-63L0%0.0
1-10UMass Lowell (309.2)AEH84-73W100%0.0
1-13Binghamton (282.6)AEH97-65W100%0.0
1-15UMBC (175.7)AEA78-56L0%0.0
1-18Maine (331.4)AEA68-86W100%0.0
1-21Vermont (55.3)AEH53-76L0%0.0
1-27UMass Lowell (309.2)AEA0-045%-1.4
1-31New Hampshire (259.2)AEA0-027%-6.7
2-3Stony Brook (197.0)AEA0-021%-9.0
2-11Albany (118.3)AEH0-025%-7.5
2-15Maine (331.4)AEH0-078%8.5
2-18Vermont (55.3)AEA0-05%-18.6
2-21New Hampshire (259.2)AEH0-049%-0.3
2-24Binghamton (282.6)AEA0-038%-3.5
2-27UMBC (175.7)AEH0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE26.4326.3948.0045.09-1.06-2.59
UMass LowellAE3.084.4335.2934.36-0.91-1.38
MaineAE3.074.4011.1115.10-2.39-3.07
BinghamtonAE2.954.3744.4440.58-0.33-0.82
Stony BrookAE2.944.3733.3341.90-0.98-0.71
VermontAE2.834.3273.6876.451.342.28
AlbanyAE2.904.3275.0072.591.451.95
New HampshireAE0.454.3133.3338.41-0.15-1.00
UMBCAE2.764.2852.9453.840.160.33
LIU BrooklynNEC5.473.8933.3338.41-1.82-0.90
Sacred HeartNEC2.902.2231.5834.63-1.07-0.68
Central ConnecticutNEC2.942.1955.0050.140.290.01
BryantNEC2.942.165.0014.35-2.65-1.54
WagnerNEC2.882.1062.5063.200.720.55
QuinnipiacMAAC2.691.9036.8432.92-0.71-0.65
Boston CollegeACC2.691.8463.1653.080.710.11
RutgersB102.681.8457.8948.250.42-0.06
RiderMAAC2.641.8163.1664.140.690.51
Miami OHMAC2.631.7850.0042.860.00-0.25
FIUCUSA2.501.7237.5036.86-0.62-0.45
PortlandWCC2.501.7223.5324.56-1.32-0.88
St. Francis PANEC0.450.4152.9459.250.030.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.570.3823.5332.57-0.30-0.13
Robert MorrisNEC0.440.3857.1460.410.060.08
DartmouthIvy0.430.3521.4326.34-0.25-0.17
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.380.3542.1144.98-0.06-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.320.3533.3335.21-0.11-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.260.2738.8944.07-0.06-0.03
BrownIvy0.440.2650.0045.130.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.190.2450.0053.280.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.320.2320.0032.24-0.19-0.08
SienaMAAC0.310.2328.5729.93-0.13-0.09
ColgatePat0.260.2150.0051.030.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.310.2042.1146.09-0.05-0.02
NJITASun0.330.1838.8942.58-0.07-0.03
MaristMAAC0.190.1821.0521.99-0.11-0.10
FordhamA100.330.1831.5829.03-0.12-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.180.1761.9063.170.040.05
MarylandB100.140.1566.6763.130.050.04
MassachusettsA100.200.1550.0046.810.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.120.1530.0032.58-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1557.1453.040.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.250.1470.0060.470.100.03
IonaMAAC0.120.1460.0064.130.020.04
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1427.7841.03-0.05-0.03
YaleIvy0.180.1441.1847.61-0.03-0.01
ArmyPat0.140.1261.1160.440.030.03
CornellIvy0.140.1233.3333.23-0.05-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.120.008.42-0.14-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.140.1222.2228.66-0.08-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1266.6773.220.040.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.129.5217.86-0.15-0.08
BucknellPat0.130.1261.9068.000.030.04
Kent St.MAC0.130.1244.4444.91-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.190.1285.7183.760.140.08
Penn St.B100.130.1261.9055.820.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.1150.0050.860.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.180.1178.9569.820.110.04
AmericanPat0.070.0925.0026.03-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.060.0945.0043.49-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.130.0950.0046.270.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.140.0950.0045.850.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.140.0961.1158.710.030.02
DePaulBE0.200.0942.1134.30-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.130.0957.8959.500.020.02
Texas TechB120.130.0978.9571.750.070.04
Ohio St.B100.140.0981.8276.870.090.05
TulaneAmer0.200.0963.1657.870.050.01
MemphisAmer0.120.0965.0058.540.040.01
NebraskaB100.060.0963.6459.480.020.02
RichmondA100.130.0931.5834.35-0.05-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.0873.6869.660.060.03
MissouriSEC0.150.0666.6763.150.050.02
ArizonaP120.070.0680.0078.940.040.04
BYUWCC0.070.0680.9576.240.040.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.060.003.06-0.07-0.06
FloridaSEC0.000.0673.6871.600.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0637.5037.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6768.540.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0627.7829.10-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0650.0051.390.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.660.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.770.040.03
PacificWCC0.070.0645.0044.49-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0610.5318.340.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0611.1117.680.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0690.4888.970.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.140.0663.1657.530.040.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.96-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.610.030.03
TexasB120.000.0665.0058.600.000.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.37-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0663.1665.980.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0645.0045.470.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.140.0675.0067.910.070.02
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.920.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0658.8249.740.03-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0672.2274.940.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.29-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.380.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0646.6747.000.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0652.6347.500.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.29-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0668.4254.080.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0633.3340.35-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0617.6534.76-0.04-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.430.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0652.9452.250.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.130.0676.1972.570.070.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.1839.14-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0665.0057.890.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0627.7838.12-0.03-0.01
DrexelCAA0.130.0630.0030.97-0.05-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.130.0625.0043.18-0.06-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0637.5046.70-0.02-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0645.0043.620.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0673.6868.040.030.02
LafayettePat0.130.0622.2227.46-0.07-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0668.4260.530.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0663.1663.210.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0655.0050.370.010.00
PurdueB100.060.0690.4888.390.050.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0666.6768.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.0620.0023.33-0.07-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.120.0642.1132.46-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.120.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.130.0642.1140.46-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7870.410.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0665.0056.350.020.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0663.1661.000.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0668.4261.280.000.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.820.010.00
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.270.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0352.6355.280.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.610.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.730.030.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0345.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7868.030.040.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.44-0.05-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.910.020.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.13-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0341.1838.470.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.150.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.66-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.820.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.710.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.680.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.670.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.22-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.030.01
ColoradoP120.060.0360.0053.720.010.00
IndianaB100.000.0360.0052.880.000.00
IowaB100.060.0347.6243.94-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0350.0054.180.000.00
MichiganB100.060.0376.1970.800.030.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.610.020.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0385.7180.060.040.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0384.2173.180.040.01
DukeACC0.060.0389.4785.240.050.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0366.6755.900.020.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.060.0360.0055.160.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0355.5657.250.010.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.880.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0394.7486.110.060.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0370.0060.400.000.01