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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:234.0
Current RPI:234
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:309
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:250



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-16234.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACN82-77L0%0.0
11-12Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA65-51L0%0.0
11-13Fairfield (289.0)MAACA53-63W100%0.0
11-15Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH74-60W100%0.0
11-19Louisville (19.0)AmerA87-48L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (277.0)CAAN81-78L0%0.0
11-24Holy Cross (127.0)PatN80-55L0%0.0
11-30Yale (147.0)IvyH49-54L0%0.0
12-4La Salle (98.0)A10A75-62L0%0.0
12-7Holy Cross (127.0)PatH90-78W100%0.0
12-10Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA73-59L0%0.0
12-15Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA72-84W100%0.0
12-22Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH66-56W100%0.0
12-29Washington (104.0)P12A73-67L0%0.0
1-4Albany (185.0)AEA81-56L0%0.0
1-7Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA56-68W100%0.0
1-9Maine (330.0)AEH80-65W100%0.0
1-12Stony Brook (165.0)AEH50-73L0%0.0
1-18New Hampshire (340.0)AEA43-60W100%0.0
1-20UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH69-51W100%0.0
1-23Binghamton (325.0)AEA54-56W100%0.0
1-25UMBC (327.0)AEA60-58L0%0.0
1-29Vermont (101.0)AEH60-67L0%0.0
2-1Stony Brook (165.0)AEA56-52L0%0.0
2-8Albany (185.0)AEH67-54W100%0.0
2-12Maine (330.0)AEA79-91W100%0.0
2-15New Hampshire (340.0)AEH61-59W100%0.0
2-19UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA68-75W100%0.0
2-23Vermont (101.0)AEA72-47L0%0.0
2-27Binghamton (325.0)AEH89-83W100%0.0
3-2UMBC (327.0)AEH67-56W100%0.0
3-8Binghamton (325.0)AEN69-42W100%0.0
3-9Stony Brook (165.0)AEN69-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE26.4826.4854.3654.362.312.31
Stony BrookAE5.475.4765.5265.521.701.70
BinghamtonAE5.345.3425.9325.93-2.57-2.57
AlbanyAE4.134.1356.6756.670.550.55
New HampshireAE4.054.0518.5218.52-2.55-2.55
VermontAE4.034.0364.2964.291.151.15
MaineAE3.973.9719.2319.23-2.44-2.44
UMBCAE3.893.8925.9325.93-1.87-1.87
UMass LowellAE3.873.8736.0036.00-1.08-1.08
Holy CrossPat3.183.1860.0060.000.640.64
Sacred HeartNEC1.791.7916.6716.67-1.20-1.20
QuinnipiacMAAC1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
DartmouthIvy1.781.7840.0040.00-0.36-0.36
YaleIvy1.771.7750.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.761.7632.1432.14-0.63-0.63
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.741.7446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
FairfieldMAAC1.731.7322.5822.58-0.95-0.95
Central ConnecticutNEC1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
HofstraCAA1.641.6428.1228.12-0.72-0.72
La SalleA101.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
LouisvilleAmer1.561.5684.8584.851.091.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
WashingtonP121.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
NJITind0.460.4636.0036.00-0.13-0.13
BrownIvy0.400.4051.8551.850.010.01
BryantNEC0.390.3954.8454.840.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.320.3234.4834.48-0.10-0.10
CornellIvy0.310.313.703.70-0.29-0.29
SienaMAAC0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
ColumbiaIvy0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
DuquesneA100.260.2641.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.240.2434.3834.38-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.240.2443.7543.75-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.240.2478.1278.120.140.14
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
RiderMAAC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.210.2186.2186.210.150.15
Boston UniversityPat0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
AmericanPat0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
George WashingtonA100.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1721.2121.21-0.10-0.10
IonaMAAC0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
ArmyPat0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.140.1470.3770.370.060.06
PennIvy0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
RadfordBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
RutgersAmer0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
IndianaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
UCFAmer0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
SeattleWAC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01