live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:244.0
Current RPI:244
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:288
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16244.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Sacred Heart (242.0)NECN71-53L0%0.0
11-16Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH51-50W100%0.0
11-19Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH53-48W100%0.0
11-22Niagara (287.0)MAACA62-65W100%0.0
11-25Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA50-54W100%0.0
11-30Yale (64.0)IvyA69-57L0%0.0
12-3Vermont (203.0)AEA81-69L0%0.0
12-6Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH47-56L0%0.0
12-9Holy Cross (200.0)PatA61-79W100%0.0
12-13Rider (140.0)MAACH61-63L0%0.0
12-21FIU (217.0)CUSAH82-69W100%0.0
12-30Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA87-60L0%0.0
1-3Texas A&M (67.0)SECA58-49L0%0.0
1-7Binghamton (332.0)AEH69-59W100%0.0
1-14New Hampshire (193.0)AEA67-68W100%0.0
1-17UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH68-62W100%0.0
1-19UMBC (346.0)AEA63-65W100%0.0
1-22Albany (99.0)AEH53-62L0%0.0
1-25Maine (339.0)AEH61-70L0%0.0
1-28Stony Brook (107.0)AEA72-66L0%0.0
1-31Vermont (203.0)AEH46-65L0%0.0
2-3Binghamton (332.0)AEA61-62W100%0.0
2-10New Hampshire (193.0)AEH70-76L0%0.0
2-14UMass Lowell (266.0)AEA69-63L0%0.0
2-17UMBC (346.0)AEH55-52W100%0.0
2-20Albany (99.0)AEA70-64L0%0.0
2-25Maine (339.0)AEA60-63W100%0.0
2-28Stony Brook (107.0)AEH59-74L0%0.0
3-4New Hampshire (193.0)AEA67-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE26.4026.4046.2146.21-2.00-2.00
New HampshireAE6.086.0857.6957.690.940.94
AlbanyAE4.634.6373.3373.332.162.16
VermontAE4.514.5153.5753.570.320.32
Stony BrookAE4.494.4963.3363.331.201.20
MaineAE4.424.427.147.14-3.79-3.79
UMBCAE4.404.4014.2914.29-3.14-3.14
BinghamtonAE4.394.3917.8617.86-2.82-2.82
UMass LowellAE4.364.3638.4638.46-1.01-1.01
QuinnipiacMAAC2.082.0851.7251.720.070.07
DartmouthIvy2.052.0551.8551.850.080.08
Sacred HeartNEC1.991.9943.3343.33-0.27-0.27
YaleIvy1.951.9565.5265.520.610.61
RiderMAAC1.941.9464.5264.520.560.56
NiagaraMAAC1.941.9427.5927.59-0.87-0.87
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.921.9248.4848.48-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC1.861.8613.3313.33-1.37-1.37
Holy CrossPat1.811.8146.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Notre DameACC1.781.7884.8584.851.241.24
FIUCUSA1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Texas A&MSEC1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
NJITind0.520.5256.0056.000.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.430.4340.0040.00-0.09-0.09
BrownIvy0.380.3837.9337.93-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.360.3653.3353.330.020.02
SienaMAAC0.360.3635.4835.48-0.10-0.10
BryantNEC0.350.3551.6151.610.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.330.3322.5822.58-0.18-0.18
Boston UniversityPat0.320.3241.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.320.3240.6240.62-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.300.3059.3859.380.060.06
ColgatePat0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.260.2641.3841.38-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
MaristMAAC0.250.2521.8821.88-0.14-0.14
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2554.5554.550.020.02
HarvardIvy0.230.2374.0774.070.110.11
PennIvy0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2344.4444.44-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
IonaMAAC0.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
ProvidenceBE0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Loyola MDPat0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
RutgersB100.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
LafayettePat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00