Hartford

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	198.0
Current RPI:	198
Expected SOS:	289
Current SOS:	289
Current Record:	18-13
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-5
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	261
Expected OOC SOS:	311

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	198.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	85-84	W	100%
11-15	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	89-53	L	0%
11-18	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	N	84-86	L	0%
11-19	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	N	58-68	W	100%
11-24	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	73-78	L	0%
11-26	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	50-72	L	0%
11-30	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	79-78	L	0%
12-2	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	H	61-73	L	0%
12-7	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	77-75	W	100%
12-11	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	86-72	W	100%
12-19	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	78-67	L	0%
12-22	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	72-79	W	100%
12-28	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	58-60	W	100%
1-3	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	64-72	W	100%
1-6	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	61-63	L	0%
1-10	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	84-73	W	100%
1-13	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	97-65	W	100%
1-15	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	78-56	L	0%
1-18	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	68-86	W	100%
1-21	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	53-76	L	0%
1-27	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	70-77	W	100%
1-31	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	62-79	W	100%
2-3	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	64-73	W	100%
2-11	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	63-69	L	0%
2-15	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	67-63	W	100%
2-18	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	68-69	W	100%
2-21	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	65-56	W	100%
2-24	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	57-67	W	100%
2-27	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	53-62	L	0%
3-3	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	71-60	W	100%
3-6	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	75-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hartford	AE	26.50	26.50	57.14	57.14	3.79	3.79
UMBC	AE	5.75	5.75	64.29	64.29	1.64	1.64
New Hampshire	AE	5.66	5.66	30.77	30.77	-2.18	-2.18
Vermont	AE	4.30	4.30	80.65	80.65	2.63	2.63
UMass Lowell	AE	4.28	4.28	40.74	40.74	-0.79	-0.79
Stony Brook	AE	4.25	4.25	37.93	37.93	-1.03	-1.03
Maine	AE	4.23	4.23	14.29	14.29	-3.02	-3.02
Albany	AE	4.16	4.16	68.97	68.97	1.58	1.58
Binghamton	AE	4.15	4.15	33.33	33.33	-1.38	-1.38
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	3.65	3.65	48.39	48.39	-0.12	-0.12
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.06	2.06	31.03	31.03	-0.78	-0.78
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.05	2.05	45.16	45.16	-0.20	-0.20
Bryant	NEC	2.03	2.03	6.67	6.67	-1.76	-1.76
Wagner	NEC	2.02	2.02	68.97	68.97	0.77	0.77
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.77	1.77	37.50	37.50	-0.44	-0.44
Boston College	ACC	1.72	1.72	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Rutgers	B10	1.72	1.72	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
Rider	MAAC	1.69	1.69	70.00	70.00	0.68	0.68
Miami OH	MAC	1.66	1.66	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
FIU	CUSA	1.61	1.61	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Portland	WCC	1.61	1.61	21.43	21.43	-0.92	-0.92
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.38	0.38	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
Robert Morris	NEC	0.36	0.36	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.36	0.36	57.14	57.14	0.05	0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.36	0.36	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.34	0.34	23.08	23.08	-0.18	-0.18
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.31	0.31	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.28	0.28	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.24	0.24	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.23	0.23	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.23	0.23	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.21	0.21	26.92	26.92	-0.10	-0.10
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
NJIT	ASun	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	6.67	6.67	-0.12	-0.12
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01