Hartford

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	187.0
Current RPI:	187
Expected SOS:	268
Current SOS:	268
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	10-7
Expected Conf Record:	10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-3
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	180
Expected OOC SOS:	257

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	187.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	61-65	L	0%
11-13	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	70-63	L	0%
11-16	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	62-47	W	100%
11-20	La Salle (46.0)	A10	H	51-64	L	0%
11-24	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	80-77	W	100%
11-29	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	51-60	W	100%
12-1	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	H	48-45	W	100%
12-5	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	71-63	L	0%
12-9	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	59-69	W	100%
12-12	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	75-59	L	0%
12-15	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	51-58	W	100%
12-22	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	56-46	W	100%
12-29	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	80-52	L	0%
1-2	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	71-68	W	100%
1-5	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	74-77	W	100%
1-9	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	68-61	W	100%
1-12	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	73-59	L	0%
1-16	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	70-57	L	0%
1-19	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	46-56	L	0%
1-24	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	40-51	W	100%
1-30	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	43-49	L	0%
2-2	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	66-58	W	100%
2-6	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	62-76	W	100%
2-10	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	60-55	W	100%
2-13	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	66-64	L	0%
2-16	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	75-49	L	0%
2-20	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	49-44	W	100%
2-28	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	68-56	W	100%
3-3	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	58-61	W	100%
3-9	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	N	62-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hartford	AE	26.38	26.38	58.09	58.09	4.27	4.27
MD Baltimore County	AE	5.88	5.88	18.52	18.52	-3.70	-3.70
Vermont	AE	4.47	4.47	66.67	66.67	1.49	1.49
Albany	AE	4.37	4.37	68.75	68.75	1.64	1.64
Stony Brook	AE	4.36	4.36	78.57	78.57	2.49	2.49
New Hampshire	AE	4.29	4.29	30.77	30.77	-1.65	-1.65
Maine	AE	4.29	4.29	33.33	33.33	-1.43	-1.43
Binghamton	AE	4.24	4.24	7.41	7.41	-3.62	-3.62
Boston University	AE	4.19	4.19	62.96	62.96	1.09	1.09
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.05	2.05	46.67	46.67	-0.14	-0.14
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.03	2.03	44.83	44.83	-0.21	-0.21
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.02	2.02	32.14	32.14	-0.72	-0.72
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.97	1.97	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.85	1.85	23.33	23.33	-0.99	-0.99
Holy Cross	Pat	1.84	1.84	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Yale	Ivy	1.83	1.83	42.86	42.86	-0.26	-0.26
Marist	MAAC	1.83	1.83	33.33	33.33	-0.61	-0.61
Niagara	MAAC	1.77	1.77	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
La Salle	A10	1.72	1.72	68.97	68.97	0.65	0.65
Arizona St.	P12	1.72	1.72	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
Colorado	P12	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Rice	CUSA	1.67	1.67	14.29	14.29	-1.19	-1.19
Bryant	NEC	0.42	0.42	63.33	63.33	0.11	0.11
Brown	Ivy	0.36	0.36	44.44	44.44	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.35	0.35	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.35	0.35	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.35	0.35	25.00	25.00	-0.17	-0.17
Long Island	NEC	0.33	0.33	60.61	60.61	0.07	0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.32	0.32	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.30	0.30	30.00	30.00	-0.12	-0.12
Wagner	NEC	0.29	0.29	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.28	0.28	29.63	29.63	-0.11	-0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.28	0.28	34.38	34.38	-0.09	-0.09
Robert Morris	NEC	0.27	0.27	69.70	69.70	0.11	0.11
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.27	0.27	17.24	17.24	-0.18	-0.18
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.25	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.25	0.25	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Army	Pat	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.23	0.23	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Harvard	Ivy	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.22	0.22	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.19	0.19	23.33	23.33	-0.10	-0.10
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.18	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01