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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:292.0
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:242
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23292.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA83-92W100%0.0
11-15Saint Louis (206.0)A10A85-68L0%0.0
11-17Louisville (17.0)ACCA87-52L0%0.0
11-19Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA66-67W100%0.0
11-24Niagara (315.0)MAACH77-73W100%0.0
11-27North Florida (161.0)ASunH60-81L0%0.0
11-29St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH67-74L0%0.0
12-2Providence (40.0)BEA89-66L0%0.0
12-5Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA74-65L0%0.0
12-9Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH66-68L0%0.0
12-12Holy Cross (248.0)PatH68-90L0%0.0
12-14Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH80-71W100%0.0
12-30Rider (242.0)MAACA82-80L0%0.0
1-2Yale (44.0)IvyH53-88L0%0.0
1-6UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA80-76L0%0.0
1-13Binghamton (299.0)AEA72-76W100%0.0
1-16Vermont (126.0)AEH68-83L0%0.0
1-18Stony Brook (59.0)AEH43-77L0%0.0
1-21UMBC (335.0)AEA87-98W100%0.0
1-24New Hampshire (177.0)AEA84-71L0%0.0
1-27Maine (317.0)AEH100-105L0%0.0
1-30Albany (107.0)AEH60-86L0%0.0
2-3UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH83-85L0%0.0
2-8Stony Brook (59.0)AEA85-72L0%0.0
2-11Binghamton (299.0)AEH54-68L0%0.0
2-14Vermont (126.0)AEA92-81L0%0.0
2-17UMBC (335.0)AEH88-65W100%0.0
2-20New Hampshire (177.0)AEH63-74L0%0.0
2-24Maine (317.0)AEA74-82W100%0.0
2-27Albany (107.0)AEA75-59L0%0.0
3-2Albany (107.0)AEA59-68W100%0.0
3-7Stony Brook (59.0)AEA80-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE26.4426.4430.3630.36-10.39-10.39
AlbanyAE5.595.5975.0075.002.802.80
Stony BrookAE5.555.5577.7877.783.093.09
VermontAE4.254.2558.0658.060.690.69
MaineAE4.104.1025.0025.00-2.05-2.05
New HampshireAE4.104.1055.5655.560.460.46
UMBCAE4.034.0323.3323.33-2.15-2.15
BinghamtonAE4.034.0325.0025.00-2.01-2.01
UMass LowellAE3.993.9930.7730.77-1.54-1.54
QuinnipiacMAAC1.961.9627.5927.59-0.88-0.88
Central ConnecticutNEC1.851.8514.2914.29-1.32-1.32
St. Francis NYNEC1.851.8543.3343.33-0.25-0.25
NiagaraMAAC1.841.8422.5822.58-1.01-1.01
Sacred HeartNEC1.801.8041.3841.38-0.31-0.31
YaleIvy1.801.8076.9276.920.970.97
Holy CrossPat1.801.8040.6240.62-0.34-0.34
DartmouthIvy1.771.7730.7730.77-0.68-0.68
RiderMAAC1.771.7737.5037.50-0.44-0.44
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.741.7448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA101.641.6432.2632.26-0.58-0.58
LouisvilleACC1.641.6473.3373.330.760.76
North FloridaASun1.641.6462.0762.070.400.40
ProvidenceBE1.591.5968.7568.750.590.59
NJITASun0.390.3953.3353.330.030.03
MaristMAAC0.380.3823.3323.33-0.20-0.20
BrownIvy0.350.3525.9325.93-0.17-0.17
LIU BrooklynNEC0.340.3451.6151.610.010.01
CornellIvy0.330.3333.3333.33-0.11-0.11
SienaMAAC0.320.3263.6463.640.090.09
Boston UniversityPat0.310.3154.8454.840.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.310.3159.3859.380.060.06
BryantNEC0.290.2923.3323.33-0.16-0.16
WagnerNEC0.290.2967.7467.740.100.10
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2842.4242.42-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.280.2841.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.260.2621.8821.88-0.15-0.15
CanisiusMAAC0.250.2542.4242.42-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.240.2477.7877.780.140.14
ManhattanMAAC0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.220.2279.4179.410.130.13
ConnecticutAmer0.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
HarvardIvy0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.200.2068.7568.750.080.08
Loyola MDPat0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
PennIvy0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
AmericanPat0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Notre DameACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
LafayettePat0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01