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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Hartford

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:215.6
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:277
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-7104.80.04%
20-8110.40.11%
19-9128.10.75%
18-10144.12.58%
17-11162.06.36%
16-12180.713.45%
15-13200.219.16%
14-14219.222.15%
13-15238.417.72%
12-16256.610.86%
11-17274.24.55%
10-18288.51.79%
9-19302.60.40%
8-20312.60.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hartford.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Sacred Heart (147.7)NECN71-53L0%0.0
11-16Saint Peter's (222.9)MAACH51-50W100%0.0
11-19Dartmouth (193.6)IvyH53-48W100%0.0
11-22Niagara (279.6)MAACA62-65W100%0.0
11-25Quinnipiac (222.2)MAACA50-54W100%0.0
11-30Yale (79.8)IvyA69-57L0%0.0
12-3Vermont (178.6)AEA81-69L0%0.0
12-6Central Connecticut (318.3)NECH47-56L0%0.0
12-9Holy Cross (148.5)PatA61-79W100%0.0
12-13Rider (192.6)MAACH61-63L0%0.0
12-21FIU (164.5)CUSAH0-055%1.6
12-30Notre Dame (48.2)ACCA0-03%-22.2
1-3Texas A&M (71.4)SECA0-09%-15.7
1-7Binghamton (341.7)AEH0-092%16.1
1-14New Hampshire (179.8)AEA0-026%-7.6
1-17UMass Lowell (199.6)AEH0-065%4.6
1-19UMBC (327.9)AEA0-063%4.0
1-22Albany (191.5)AEH0-055%1.6
1-25Maine (323.2)AEH0-086%12.8
1-28Stony Brook (140.4)AEA0-022%-9.0
1-31Vermont (178.6)AEH0-049%-0.2
2-3Binghamton (341.7)AEA0-075%7.7
2-10New Hampshire (179.8)AEH0-053%0.8
2-14UMass Lowell (199.6)AEA0-037%-3.7
2-17UMBC (327.9)AEH0-085%12.3
2-20Albany (191.5)AEA0-028%-6.8
2-25Maine (323.2)AEA0-065%4.4
2-28Stony Brook (140.4)AEH0-048%-0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hartford's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hartford's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hartford.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HartfordAE27.6526.3751.9251.421.060.75
AlbanyAE0.844.5840.0054.76-0.170.44
VermontAE5.494.5437.5056.33-1.370.58
MaineAE0.254.5111.1120.53-0.19-2.66
UMass LowellAE0.534.5150.0050.640.000.06
New HampshireAE0.534.5050.0060.380.000.93
BinghamtonAE0.004.480.0010.82-0.00-3.51
UMBCAE0.254.4818.1825.28-0.16-2.21
Stony BrookAE0.004.4533.3354.52-0.000.40
QuinnipiacMAAC5.492.1850.0052.410.000.10
DartmouthIvy5.002.1055.5648.410.56-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC5.362.0450.0059.640.000.39
YaleIvy5.562.0463.6460.461.520.43
NiagaraMAAC5.232.0214.2930.56-3.73-0.79
RiderMAAC5.252.0045.4551.69-0.480.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.311.9740.0049.78-1.06-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC5.211.9411.1124.86-4.05-0.97
Holy CrossPat5.281.8866.6755.831.760.22
Notre DameACC0.001.8591.6776.460.000.98
FIUCUSA0.001.7944.4450.63-0.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.001.7970.0060.300.000.37
NJITind0.610.5641.6743.68-0.10-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.4033.3345.04-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.820.4055.5662.150.090.10
BrownIvy0.580.3840.0033.80-0.12-0.12
SienaMAAC0.760.3633.3349.54-0.25-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.530.3340.0037.64-0.11-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.510.3230.0041.69-0.20-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.3166.6742.600.00-0.05
BryantNEC0.490.3128.5745.89-0.21-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.3030.0038.01-0.00-0.07
ColgatePat0.280.2920.0042.59-0.17-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.2855.5648.710.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.280.2712.5030.56-0.21-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2750.0058.370.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2566.6767.930.000.09
PennIvy0.210.2537.5032.63-0.05-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.440.2433.3341.02-0.15-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.210.2475.0057.390.100.04
IonaMAAC0.210.2460.0069.200.040.09
MaristMAAC0.000.249.0916.15-0.00-0.16
HarvardIvy0.630.2285.7172.910.450.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2133.3341.20-0.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.1977.7868.780.000.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.1933.3328.13-0.00-0.08
LehighPat0.490.1944.4454.06-0.050.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1855.5665.210.000.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1737.5039.65-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.000.1620.0022.16-0.00-0.09
AmericanPat0.000.1363.6463.240.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.1340.0036.66-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.490.1366.6767.650.160.04
RutgersB100.230.1254.5532.590.02-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.560.1277.7865.110.310.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1250.0051.710.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.1242.8633.27-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0039.59-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1230.0043.15-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.280.0981.8282.250.180.06
LongwoodBSth0.250.0920.0025.85-0.15-0.05
PittsburghACC0.310.0970.0051.780.120.00
BuffaloMAC0.310.0977.7870.890.170.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0933.3328.79-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.050.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0970.0076.180.000.05
Seton HallBE0.230.0990.0067.380.180.03
TowsonCAA0.250.0960.0047.170.05-0.01
FloridaSEC0.210.0963.6465.220.060.03
Georgia TechACC0.210.0980.0053.260.120.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0755.5652.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.06-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.11-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0660.0043.160.06-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.270.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5063.95-0.000.02
USCP120.000.0660.0036.410.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.360.0660.0058.120.070.01
MercerSC0.250.0644.4444.02-0.03-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7367.960.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.680.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0642.8649.02-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.500.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.74-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.61-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0067.830.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.69-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.440.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6758.210.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.210.0650.0058.070.000.01
La SalleA100.510.0654.5552.730.050.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0084.930.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.130.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0039.790.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0063.910.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0032.26-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0043.890.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.090.000.04
Michigan St.B100.210.0666.6767.300.070.02
IPFWSum0.250.0350.0054.190.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.250.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0391.6755.310.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8648.87-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3637.85-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
DavidsonA100.310.0388.8977.320.240.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.94-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7870.160.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.580.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.0318.1820.86-0.13-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.210.0375.0058.160.100.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.520.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.81-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0082.310.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7856.220.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.98-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.210.0354.5544.930.02-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.310.0388.8965.170.240.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.17-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0363.6467.210.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.280.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.5548.490.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.240.000.01
CampbellBSth0.280.0325.0043.93-0.14-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0345.4545.10-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.280.0363.6455.660.080.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.290.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7362.220.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.47-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0316.6740.27-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0355.5673.740.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.23-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0318.1830.76-0.16-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.00-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0333.3337.91-0.08-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.980.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.210.0390.0070.680.170.01
MarylandB100.250.0390.9168.230.200.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8266.010.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.0316.6735.27-0.14-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.230.0354.5559.560.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.480.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.370.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.0344.4436.80-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.030.0015.00-0.23-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.60-0.00-0.01