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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Colgate

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:192.1
Current RPI:310
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:273
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1067.00.03%
19-1185.50.13%
18-1299.50.60%
17-13115.02.02%
16-14130.65.14%
15-15148.010.76%
14-16167.416.15%
13-17186.320.05%
12-18206.618.60%
11-19226.113.96%
10-20245.87.84%
9-21263.33.31%
8-22279.51.02%
7-23299.30.30%
6-24306.00.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15La Salle (124.5)A10A57-52L0%0.0
11-18Cornell (182.5)IvyA58-52L0%0.0
11-22Campbell (225.7)BSthA48-54W100%0.0
11-24James Madison (158.0)CAAA77-71L0%0.0
11-26Albany (228.7)AEH71-75L0%0.0
11-29Arizona St. (94.4)P12A78-71L0%0.0
12-3Sacred Heart (163.4)NECH70-71L0%0.0
12-6Ohio St. (12.1)B10A70-50L0%0.0
12-11Binghamton (342.5)AEH65-44W100%0.0
12-14New Hampshire (160.6)AEA63-57L0%0.0
12-22Syracuse (76.1)ACCA0-013%-13.6
12-28Columbia (100.3)IvyA0-020%-10.1
12-31Lehigh (164.8)PatA0-037%-4.0
1-3Bucknell (258.6)PatH0-083%11.3
1-7Holy Cross (157.7)PatH0-068%5.5
1-10American (98.4)PatA0-026%-7.7
1-14Boston University (203.8)PatH0-074%7.5
1-17Navy (323.1)PatA0-075%7.8
1-21Army (141.0)PatA0-030%-6.2
1-24Loyola MD (298.3)PatH0-091%15.6
1-28Lafayette (88.4)PatH0-052%0.6
1-31Bucknell (258.6)PatA0-058%2.4
2-5Holy Cross (157.7)PatA0-039%-3.4
2-7American (98.4)PatH0-054%1.3
2-11Boston University (203.8)PatA0-045%-1.4
2-14Navy (323.1)PatH0-092%16.8
2-18Army (141.0)PatH0-059%2.8
2-22Loyola MD (298.3)PatA0-071%6.6
2-25Lafayette (88.4)PatA0-024%-8.3
2-28Lehigh (164.8)PatH0-066%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColgatePat27.8926.3923.8145.99-14.61-2.12
Loyola MDPat0.284.3633.3327.38-0.09-1.97
Holy CrossPat0.594.3557.1453.340.080.29
BucknellPat0.284.3340.0036.63-0.06-1.16
AmericanPat0.254.3360.0065.470.051.34
Boston UniversityPat0.614.3333.3342.21-0.20-0.67
LehighPat0.004.3242.8652.05-0.000.18
NavyPat0.254.3020.0021.50-0.15-2.45
ArmyPat0.254.2977.7870.150.141.73
LafayettePat0.314.2975.0070.350.161.75
BinghamtonAE5.281.990.0012.36-5.28-1.50
ColumbiaIvy0.001.9562.5064.040.000.55
AlbanyAE5.001.9025.0046.66-2.50-0.13
Sacred HeartNEC5.911.9042.8656.31-0.840.24
New HampshireAE5.001.8750.0063.270.000.50
CornellIvy5.251.8450.0046.700.00-0.12
SyracuseACC0.001.8166.6756.060.000.22
James MadisonCAA5.951.7562.5051.711.490.06
Ohio St.B105.951.7587.5083.494.461.17
CampbellBSth5.871.7516.6745.74-3.91-0.15
Arizona St.P125.001.7355.5652.400.560.08
La SalleA105.001.7244.4448.25-0.56-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.3537.5054.91-0.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.870.3255.5654.360.100.03
BrownIvy0.000.3040.0034.21-0.00-0.09
UMBCAE0.000.2910.0021.35-0.00-0.17
PennIvy0.250.2937.5032.38-0.06-0.10
HarvardIvy0.000.2785.7173.700.000.13
HartfordAE0.310.2750.0050.920.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2642.8655.87-0.040.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2537.5037.71-0.00-0.06
MaineAE0.000.2411.1121.00-0.00-0.14
YaleIvy0.000.2470.0064.560.000.07
NJITind0.280.1836.3641.92-0.08-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1827.2737.98-0.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.360.1825.0040.22-0.18-0.03
VermontAE0.000.1850.0060.040.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.530.1737.5046.01-0.13-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.1725.0047.42-0.13-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1775.0061.240.000.04
SienaMAAC0.280.1737.5051.38-0.070.00
VillanovaBE0.250.17100.0082.270.250.11
DartmouthIvy0.360.1544.4447.41-0.04-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.280.1550.0061.890.000.04
BryantNEC0.360.1528.5746.92-0.15-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1528.5741.09-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1514.2933.61-0.00-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1444.4440.58-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1466.6751.390.000.00
Penn St.B100.280.1490.9154.340.230.01
MichiganB100.000.1455.5642.720.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.1233.3338.85-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1262.5053.840.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.1236.3647.60-0.07-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1210.0018.60-0.00-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.000.120.009.06-0.00-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1233.3343.11-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.530.1172.7352.480.240.01
Boston CollegeACC0.610.1166.6741.850.20-0.02
DaytonA100.000.1177.7869.570.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.110.008.21-0.00-0.09
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.520.000.09
High PointBSth0.280.1162.5055.430.070.01
Notre DameACC0.250.1190.9171.250.200.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1141.6743.24-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1177.7877.550.000.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1155.5639.850.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.530.1125.0037.29-0.26-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0094.460.000.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0950.0056.650.000.01
USCP120.000.0960.0037.100.00-0.02
RutgersB100.360.0960.0035.390.07-0.02
RadfordBSth0.280.0950.0054.960.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0870.0070.960.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.360.0850.0045.540.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0840.0058.50-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0844.4449.79-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0870.0066.410.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0870.0066.510.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.280.0820.0047.17-0.17-0.00
TempleAmer0.250.0860.0054.040.050.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0037.860.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0890.0065.960.000.03
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.660.000.02
VirginiaACC0.530.08100.0086.080.530.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1459.520.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0046.750.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0666.6772.470.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6739.030.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0642.8656.16-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.900.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5732.96-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0645.4551.71-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.16-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0067.550.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3351.71-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.770.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5047.890.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6729.59-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.360.0687.5076.910.270.03
LongwoodBSth0.280.0622.2227.64-0.15-0.03
George MasonA100.280.0625.0025.93-0.14-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0064.650.000.02
UNLVMWC0.530.0671.4350.790.230.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0655.5655.960.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2230.95-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0080.930.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0566.6757.220.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5048.77-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0528.5727.72-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0580.0057.560.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.280.05100.0085.390.280.04
MarquetteBE0.530.0555.5647.220.06-0.00
MarylandB100.250.0590.9167.920.200.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0560.0055.070.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0570.0071.650.000.02
OregonP120.000.0562.5057.800.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0575.0050.490.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0572.7363.400.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5072.760.000.02
RichmondA100.280.0550.0056.190.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0571.4361.160.000.01
UtahP120.000.0577.7880.520.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.250.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.1456.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.950.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.360.0333.3340.42-0.12-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.09-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.06-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0333.3343.17-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.250.0325.0037.01-0.13-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2932.16-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.280.0362.5064.900.070.01
AlabamaSEC0.250.0366.6755.560.080.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3347.31-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0320.0033.87-0.15-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.250.030.0011.59-0.25-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.280.0337.5037.27-0.07-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0344.4433.13-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.200.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0330.0028.28-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.27-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0328.5722.66-0.11-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.840.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0322.2227.10-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.850.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6742.930.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.93-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0380.0063.530.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.250.0371.4360.450.110.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.670.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.250.0377.7866.040.140.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.470.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.650.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.250.0375.0060.540.130.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0070.570.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.300.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.100.000.00