live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Colgate

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:256.0
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:243
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA89-78L0%0.0
11-16Syracuse (16.0)ACCA69-50L0%0.0
11-20Cornell (334.0)IvyH81-58W100%0.0
11-23St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH81-64W100%0.0
11-26Tulane (223.0)CUSAA86-98W100%0.0
12-1Binghamton (325.0)AEA64-93W100%0.0
12-7Georgetown (69.0)BEA61-55L0%0.0
12-10Fordham (226.0)A10H73-77L0%0.0
12-14Albany (185.0)AEA60-69W100%0.0
12-30Columbia (130.0)IvyH70-76L0%0.0
1-2Lehigh (236.0)PatH81-88L0%0.0
1-5Bucknell (167.0)PatA68-57L0%0.0
1-8Holy Cross (127.0)PatA73-64L0%0.0
1-11American (118.0)PatH62-69L0%0.0
1-15Boston University (84.0)PatA66-58L0%0.0
1-18Navy (321.0)PatH63-41W100%0.0
1-22Army (235.0)PatH63-66L0%0.0
1-25Loyola MD (274.0)PatA67-60L0%0.0
1-27Lafayette (258.0)PatA68-75W100%0.0
2-1Bucknell (167.0)PatH68-79L0%0.0
2-4Holy Cross (127.0)PatH68-69L0%0.0
2-8American (118.0)PatA60-63W100%0.0
2-12Boston University (84.0)PatH74-76L0%0.0
2-15Navy (321.0)PatA71-61L0%0.0
2-19Army (235.0)PatA74-66L0%0.0
2-22Loyola MD (274.0)PatH84-60W100%0.0
2-26Lafayette (258.0)PatH83-66W100%0.0
3-1Lehigh (236.0)PatA57-74W100%0.0
3-3Navy (321.0)PatH57-51W100%0.0
3-5American (118.0)PatA59-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColgatePat26.5226.5241.1041.10-4.72-4.72
AmericanPat6.086.0862.0762.071.471.47
NavyPat5.975.9726.9226.92-2.75-2.75
Boston UniversityPat4.514.5168.7568.751.691.69
Holy CrossPat4.474.4756.6756.670.600.60
BucknellPat4.444.4450.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat4.444.4442.8642.86-0.63-0.63
LehighPat4.424.4243.3343.33-0.59-0.59
Loyola MDPat4.424.4233.3333.33-1.47-1.47
LafayettePat4.414.4135.7135.71-1.26-1.26
St. Francis PANEC2.002.0033.3333.33-0.67-0.67
BinghamtonAE1.921.9224.1424.14-0.99-0.99
ColumbiaIvy1.921.9258.6258.620.330.33
CornellIvy1.861.863.853.85-1.72-1.72
AlbanyAE1.831.8358.0658.060.300.30
SyracuseACC1.781.7883.8783.871.201.20
FordhamA101.771.7730.0030.00-0.71-0.71
Wake ForestACC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
GeorgetownBE1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
UMBCAE0.490.4927.5927.59-0.22-0.22
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.2750.0050.000.000.00
NJITind0.270.2736.0036.00-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
BrownIvy0.250.2551.8551.850.010.01
HarvardIvy0.250.2586.2186.210.180.18
HartfordAE0.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.230.2370.3770.370.090.09
BryantNEC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.210.2116.1316.13-0.14-0.14
YaleIvy0.200.2051.8551.850.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
St. John'sBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
PennIvy0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
The CitadelSC0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.09-0.09
MaineAE0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Notre DameACC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
New HampshireAE0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
George MasonA100.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.140.1487.5087.500.100.10
Miami FLACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
VermontAE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00