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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Colgate

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:289.9
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:276
Current Record:1-7
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13156.30.03%
16-14162.50.06%
15-15187.20.32%
14-16204.01.28%
13-17223.73.11%
12-18241.96.29%
11-19261.011.25%
10-20277.915.33%
9-21293.318.58%
8-22305.817.72%
7-23315.913.19%
6-24323.97.79%
5-25331.03.53%
4-26337.21.15%
3-27341.50.30%
2-28342.40.05%
1-29345.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Syracuse (52.7)ACCA83-55L0%0.0
11-16Cornell (264.7)IvyA63-67W100%0.0
11-19NJIT (197.6)ASunA74-68L0%0.0
11-23Penn St. (121.4)B10A72-59L0%0.0
11-26Columbia (252.2)IvyA81-78L0%0.0
12-2The Citadel (299.9)SCA108-101L0%0.0
12-3Campbell (295.2)BSthN73-71L0%0.0
12-4USC Upstate (263.9)ASunN65-71L0%0.0
12-7Binghamton (256.1)AEH0-064%4.2
12-10Albany (147.3)AEH0-036%-4.5
12-19Notre Dame (23.3)ACCA0-01%-29.2
12-22Duquesne (228.7)A10A0-025%-8.3
12-30Lafayette (285.6)PatA0-044%-1.8
1-2American (290.4)PatH0-061%3.5
1-5Holy Cross (196.9)PatH0-048%-0.5
1-8Navy (264.2)PatA0-037%-4.0
1-11Army (190.2)PatA0-024%-8.6
1-14Bucknell (112.4)PatH0-030%-6.4
1-18Boston University (178.4)PatA0-020%-10.2
1-21Loyola MD (198.3)PatH0-051%0.2
1-25Lehigh (91.3)PatH0-024%-8.4
1-29American (290.4)PatA0-041%-2.8
2-1Holy Cross (196.9)PatA0-028%-6.8
2-4Navy (264.2)PatH0-058%2.3
2-8Army (190.2)PatH0-042%-2.3
2-13Bucknell (112.4)PatA0-015%-12.6
2-15Boston University (178.4)PatH0-037%-3.9
2-19Loyola MD (198.3)PatA0-031%-6.1
2-22Lehigh (91.3)PatA0-011%-14.7
2-25Lafayette (285.6)PatH0-065%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColgatePat28.2626.3821.8731.54-15.90-9.74
Loyola MDPat0.004.3342.8644.91-0.00-0.44
Holy CrossPat0.454.3137.5046.39-0.11-0.31
ArmyPat0.454.3142.8648.85-0.06-0.10
LafayettePat0.844.3133.3332.41-0.28-1.51
NavyPat0.004.2825.0036.24-0.00-1.18
Boston UniversityPat0.004.2842.8653.68-0.000.31
BucknellPat0.004.2666.6765.550.001.32
AmericanPat0.004.2514.2930.05-0.00-1.70
LehighPat0.004.2542.8665.47-0.001.31
CornellIvy6.251.8733.3331.10-2.08-0.71
ColumbiaIvy6.251.8733.3340.33-2.08-0.36
BinghamtonAE0.451.8750.0043.820.00-0.23
AlbanyAE0.351.8742.8661.00-0.050.41
SyracuseACC6.251.8466.6765.592.080.57
NJITASun6.251.7942.8647.91-0.89-0.07
USC UpstateASun7.091.7937.5039.04-1.77-0.39
DuquesneA100.351.7544.4440.92-0.04-0.32
Notre DameACC0.001.75100.0076.650.000.93
The CitadelSC7.041.7342.8627.77-1.01-0.77
CampbellBSth6.991.7333.3336.86-2.33-0.45
Penn St.B106.251.7262.5044.641.56-0.18
PrincetonIvy0.000.3025.0063.27-0.000.08
Stony BrookAE0.450.3028.5738.15-0.19-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.390.2922.2238.49-0.22-0.07
New HampshireAE0.000.2857.1458.840.000.05
MaineAE0.000.2614.2924.15-0.00-0.13
PennIvy0.000.2433.3356.57-0.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.2380.0054.540.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.2142.8663.41-0.000.06
St. Francis PANEC0.390.2033.3339.94-0.13-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.1855.5646.970.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.390.1828.5728.24-0.17-0.08
HarvardIvy0.000.1820.0046.79-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1711.1148.19-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.1722.2226.33-0.00-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1771.4359.880.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.890.1775.0070.620.450.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1557.1471.940.000.07
North FloridaASun0.450.1512.5034.79-0.33-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.450.1550.0044.400.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1414.2926.74-0.00-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1457.1450.420.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0084.840.000.10
La SalleA100.000.1466.6755.540.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1422.2241.71-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.350.1357.1436.010.05-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1375.0049.180.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.130.0020.55-0.00-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.390.1233.3327.06-0.13-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.280.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1225.0030.23-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.1212.5033.04-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1242.8646.48-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.450.1242.8645.30-0.06-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.740.1266.6761.550.250.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1275.0066.370.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.1233.3356.24-0.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1271.4355.820.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1271.4356.260.000.01
VermontAE0.000.1262.5071.320.000.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1137.5033.74-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.450.1137.5052.01-0.110.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1137.5044.39-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0051.040.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.1171.4370.390.000.05
PurdueB100.390.1175.0075.340.200.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.790.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1175.0054.490.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.350.0920.0037.65-0.21-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.350.0957.1467.260.050.03
SamfordSC0.450.0962.5056.520.110.01
VMISC0.450.090.0016.78-0.45-0.06
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0975.0066.100.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.450.0928.5736.95-0.19-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0825.0047.82-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.330.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0887.5068.610.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0837.5037.03-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0885.7162.990.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0844.4434.65-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.350.0888.8978.400.270.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.0887.5065.250.000.02
George WashingtonA100.350.0855.5641.690.04-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0871.4358.600.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5069.130.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0850.0048.210.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.450.08100.0078.850.450.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.450.080.0027.12-0.45-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.80-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.28-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.070.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0671.4373.040.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0040.600.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0048.030.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.350.0655.5647.890.04-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.0614.2938.26-0.32-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.180.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3354.47-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.92-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.350.0587.5082.360.260.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0542.8658.58-0.050.01
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.440.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0550.0041.310.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.900.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0562.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.490.000.03
IowaB100.000.0537.5037.74-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0035.95-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0587.5081.960.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6739.20-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0575.0066.170.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0585.7145.370.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0528.5723.78-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0550.0046.240.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0587.5078.510.000.03
WisconsinB100.450.0577.7876.040.250.03
HofstraCAA0.450.0362.5043.220.11-0.00
Seton HallBE0.450.0371.4354.560.190.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AuburnSEC0.350.0385.7157.450.250.00
CharlotteCUSA0.350.0371.4351.460.150.00
HoustonAmer0.450.0385.7178.280.320.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.450.0371.4354.310.190.00
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
Arizona St.P120.390.0362.5040.460.10-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.390.0350.0060.620.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.390.0312.5029.15-0.29-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
Iowa St.B120.390.0371.4368.070.170.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.390.0342.8650.06-0.060.00
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.58-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.350.0362.5051.790.090.00