Colgate

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	296.0
Current RPI:	295
Expected SOS:	264
Current SOS:	280
Current Record:	7-16
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	1-7
Expected Conf Record:	3-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.03%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-10
Current OOC Record:	6-9
Expected OOC Record:	6-9
Expected OOC RPI:	270
Expected OOC SOS:	301

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	253.1	0.18%
11-18	268.6	2.69%
10-19	282.1	14.09%
9-20	292.6	33.57%
8-21	301.4	35.03%
7-22	310.1	14.43%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	74-78	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	A	68-41	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Syracuse (2.1)	BE	A	92-47	L	0%	0.0
11-23	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	74-66	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	81-73	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Fordham (243.2)	A10	A	79-69	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	74-70	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	87-63	L	0%	0.0
12-10	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	65-63	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	H	61-55	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	82-59	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	70-80	L	0%	0.0
12-31	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	71-64	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	H	59-66	L	0%	0.0
1-7	American (150.9)	Pat	A	82-54	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	70-57	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	H	56-78	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	91-75	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	65-54	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	76-82	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	A	76-60	L	0%	0.0
2-1	NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)	GWC	A	73-76	W	100%	0.0
2-4	American (150.9)	Pat	H	58-59	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	0-0		10%	-13.9
2-11	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	0-0		2%	-21.8
2-15	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	0-0		47%	-0.8
2-18	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	0-0		37%	-3.8
2-22	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-25	Holy Cross (226.1)	Pat	H	0-0		43%	-2.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colgate	Pat	26.21	26.29	29.90	28.66	-10.54	-11.22
Army	Pat	2.81	4.33	38.10	39.04	-0.67	-0.95
Bucknell	Pat	2.80	4.33	72.73	73.52	1.27	2.03
Lafayette	Pat	2.77	4.30	40.91	39.35	-0.50	-0.92
American	Pat	4.79	4.27	61.90	61.11	1.14	0.95
Lehigh	Pat	2.71	4.27	72.73	73.14	1.23	1.98
Holy Cross	Pat	2.72	4.27	38.10	39.23	-0.65	-0.92
Navy	Pat	2.65	4.23	10.00	11.70	-2.12	-3.24
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.50	2.05	22.73	23.57	-1.37	-1.08
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.47	2.03	15.00	17.79	-1.73	-1.31
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.46	2.03	54.55	55.62	0.22	0.23
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.51	2.02	59.09	57.94	0.46	0.32
Binghamton	AE	2.46	2.02	0.00	4.17	-2.46	-1.85
Albany	AE	2.47	2.00	58.33	59.10	0.41	0.36
Columbia	Ivy	2.46	1.99	52.63	53.13	0.13	0.12
New Hampshire	AE	2.41	1.96	31.58	36.22	-0.89	-0.54
Marist	MAAC	2.38	1.91	31.82	31.05	-0.87	-0.72
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.32	1.87	35.29	39.97	-0.68	-0.38
Syracuse	BE	2.36	1.87	95.65	91.74	2.16	1.56
Fordham	A10	2.31	1.84	38.10	32.16	-0.55	-0.66
Hofstra	CAA	2.27	1.78	29.17	33.24	-0.95	-0.60
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.22	1.75	42.86	39.71	-0.32	-0.36
Wisconsin	B10	2.17	1.72	73.91	73.11	1.04	0.80
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.44	0.36	8.70	12.13	-0.36	-0.27
Cornell	Ivy	0.44	0.36	36.84	41.45	-0.12	-0.06
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.34	0.33	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.38	0.33	28.00	28.91	-0.17	-0.14
Long Island	NEC	0.30	0.30	70.83	71.05	0.12	0.13
Hartford	AE	0.39	0.30	17.39	20.97	-0.25	-0.17
Bryant	NEC	0.34	0.30	8.33	10.86	-0.28	-0.23
Boston University	AE	0.33	0.30	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.20	0.27	72.22	63.19	0.09	0.07
Maine	AE	0.24	0.27	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.38	0.27	26.09	28.60	-0.18	-0.12
Brown	Ivy	0.29	0.27	27.27	23.80	-0.13	-0.14
Vermont	AE	0.35	0.27	60.00	62.49	0.07	0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.33	0.27	82.61	84.57	0.21	0.18
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.24	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.39	0.24	68.00	69.07	0.14	0.09
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.28	0.24	13.64	16.35	-0.21	-0.16
Longwood	ind	0.21	0.22	30.00	27.84	-0.09	-0.10
Harvard	Ivy	0.26	0.21	90.48	87.91	0.21	0.16
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.14	0.21	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.21	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.21	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.29	0.21	66.67	68.05	0.10	0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.19	0.21	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.19	0.18	20.00	19.96	-0.12	-0.11
Fairfield	MAAC	0.20	0.15	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.15	0.15	77.27	73.45	0.08	0.07
Providence	BE	0.19	0.15	56.52	50.27	0.03	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.15	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.15	68.00	70.03	0.03	0.06
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.14	0.15	21.74	24.58	-0.08	-0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.15	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.19	0.15	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	76.19	72.91	0.07	0.07
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.14	76.00	72.50	0.07	0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.13	40.91	43.66	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.16	0.12	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.12	80.95	77.38	0.10	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.12	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.12	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.12	79.17	78.10	0.08	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.12	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.09	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.09	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.09	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.09	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.09	17.39	19.81	-0.09	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.14	0.09	36.36	38.48	-0.04	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.09	18.18	22.22	-0.09	-0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.07
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.09	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	20.83	20.60	-0.05	-0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.09	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.09	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.13	0.09	80.00	78.06	0.08	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.07	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.07	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.04
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.04	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00