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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Colgate

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:220.5
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:300
Current Record:9-9
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9133.00.07%
18-10155.50.93%
17-11173.64.54%
16-12191.615.21%
15-13209.124.30%
14-14225.825.62%
13-15241.918.44%
12-16258.28.15%
11-17274.72.36%
10-18291.10.33%
9-19306.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Connecticut (102.6)AmerA70-58L0%0.0
11-16Cornell (280.4)IvyH72-61W100%0.0
11-19UMBC (174.2)AEH93-88W100%0.0
11-22Boston College (99.6)ACCA83-79L0%0.0
11-25Columbia (278.6)IvyH77-71W100%0.0
11-29Albany (119.0)AEA75-69L0%0.0
12-2Binghamton (281.9)AEA76-65L0%0.0
12-6Marist (317.4)MAACA78-76L0%0.0
12-9Syracuse (44.3)ACCA72-58L0%0.0
12-12NJIT (275.0)ASunH87-76W100%0.0
12-29Holy Cross (303.4)PatA74-79W100%0.0
1-2American (307.8)PatA63-72W100%0.0
1-5Lafayette (311.6)PatH68-71L0%0.0
1-8Navy (220.0)PatH70-62W100%0.0
1-11Boston University (199.1)PatA72-58L0%0.0
1-15Bucknell (85.1)PatH51-63L0%0.0
1-17Lehigh (237.4)PatA72-76W100%0.0
1-20Loyola MD (314.8)PatH77-72W100%0.0
1-24Army (190.1)PatA0-033%-4.9
1-27American (307.8)PatH0-081%9.7
1-31Lafayette (311.6)PatA0-055%1.4
2-4Navy (220.0)PatA0-042%-2.3
2-7Boston University (199.1)PatH0-057%1.9
2-12Bucknell (85.1)PatA0-015%-11.6
2-14Lehigh (237.4)PatH0-063%3.6
2-18Loyola MD (314.8)PatA0-052%0.6
2-21Army (190.1)PatH0-056%1.5
2-24Holy Cross (303.4)PatH0-076%7.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColgatePat26.3626.4352.7052.901.421.54
ArmyPat0.984.7261.1160.800.221.02
LafayettePat3.384.6317.6524.01-2.19-2.41
Boston UniversityPat3.354.6247.0651.86-0.200.17
NavyPat3.334.6163.1657.010.880.65
Holy CrossPat3.294.6027.7831.87-1.46-1.67
Loyola MDPat3.294.5923.5329.03-1.74-1.93
LehighPat3.294.5941.1846.75-0.58-0.30
BucknellPat3.234.5760.0066.320.651.49
AmericanPat3.224.5727.7829.48-1.43-1.87
BinghamtonAE3.012.0738.8937.79-0.67-0.51
AlbanyAE3.172.0770.0069.211.270.80
ColumbiaIvy3.152.0721.4333.54-1.80-0.68
CornellIvy3.091.9835.7134.56-0.88-0.61
MaristMAAC2.851.9816.6719.33-1.90-1.21
UMBCAE2.841.9758.8257.600.500.30
ConnecticutAmer3.021.9150.0045.640.00-0.17
SyracuseACC2.941.9166.6759.940.980.38
Boston CollegeACC2.871.8863.1653.160.760.12
NJITASun2.851.8541.1844.25-0.50-0.21
UMass LowellAE0.610.4133.3333.87-0.20-0.13
New HampshireAE0.440.3733.3340.08-0.15-0.07
MaineAE0.460.3110.5314.83-0.36-0.22
Stony BrookAE0.370.3136.8445.21-0.10-0.03
SienaMAAC0.430.2728.5729.94-0.18-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.340.2652.9460.220.020.05
HarvardIvy0.150.2637.5046.69-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.330.2664.7162.720.100.07
DartmouthIvy0.210.2621.4326.35-0.12-0.12
VermontAE0.140.2475.0077.850.070.14
YaleIvy0.140.2341.1847.56-0.03-0.01
HartfordAE0.290.2150.0045.930.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.150.2177.7870.480.080.09
PittsburghACC0.220.2140.0030.87-0.04-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.280.2127.7841.03-0.13-0.04
BrownIvy0.150.2050.0045.140.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.1942.1144.96-0.04-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.290.1830.0033.47-0.12-0.06
IonaMAAC0.290.1860.0064.110.060.05
DrexelCAA0.230.1630.0030.99-0.09-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.170.1657.1453.050.020.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.240.1635.0031.83-0.07-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.240.1663.1663.220.060.04
MemphisAmer0.220.1565.0058.540.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.220.1573.6869.640.100.06
VirginiaACC0.220.1594.7486.140.200.11
Wake ForestACC0.140.1542.1140.46-0.02-0.03
La SalleA100.210.1540.0042.69-0.04-0.02
VillanovaBE0.240.1394.7490.310.220.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1357.8966.260.020.04
LipscombASun0.070.1352.9459.340.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1352.9459.250.010.02
West VirginiaB120.220.1284.2178.170.150.07
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1238.8944.08-0.03-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.1242.1146.09-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.1233.3335.21-0.02-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1250.0050.860.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.129.5217.90-0.18-0.08
MarylandB100.220.1270.0065.250.090.04
North CarolinaACC0.140.1280.0075.060.080.06
StetsonASun0.150.1033.3336.93-0.05-0.03
TowsonCAA0.150.1063.1665.970.040.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.0923.5332.57-0.08-0.03
WagnerNEC0.150.0964.7164.570.040.03
George MasonA100.150.0945.0041.30-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.160.0947.3743.02-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0929.4139.63-0.06-0.02
BryantNEC0.140.099.5217.12-0.11-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0961.9063.140.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.140.0978.9569.790.080.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.0968.4264.200.050.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0963.1661.020.020.02
RichmondA100.140.0931.5834.36-0.05-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.190.0716.6716.16-0.12-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0733.3333.77-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0716.6724.910.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0731.5835.15-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0711.1118.00-0.06-0.04
Penn St.B100.170.0761.9055.760.040.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.0640.0042.52-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0637.5031.760.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0650.0052.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.080.0652.6351.080.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.8959.490.000.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0655.0050.330.010.00
USCP120.080.0671.4368.280.030.02
AuburnSEC0.170.0689.4777.000.130.03
ToledoMAC0.170.0666.6767.700.060.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.060.009.09-0.15-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.0672.2274.930.070.03
The CitadelSC0.150.0618.7518.36-0.09-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5327.29-0.06-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.550.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0615.7920.91-0.05-0.04
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0683.3381.430.050.04
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.15-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
ArizonaP120.150.0680.0078.940.090.04
SMUAmer0.080.0670.0070.570.030.02
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.320.020.02
NebraskaB100.140.0666.6759.820.050.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.700.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.240.050.03
DukeACC0.070.0689.4785.210.050.04
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0642.1132.47-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0665.0056.340.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0652.6351.740.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.320.010.00
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.860.030.01
VCUA100.070.0660.0059.700.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0668.4257.740.030.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.380.040.03
DuquesneA100.090.0370.0058.090.040.01
RutgersB100.080.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0375.0067.890.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.030.003.07-0.08-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0350.0051.380.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0366.6773.210.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.30-0.05-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.950.030.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.97-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.070.030.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.0083.200.050.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.850.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0335.0026.120.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.730.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.890.020.00