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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Colgate

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:228.7
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:254
Current Record:10-13
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13185.02.78%
14-14202.716.58%
13-15220.733.44%
12-16239.031.07%
11-17257.314.02%
10-18273.12.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13George Mason (187.9)A10A53-66W100%0.0
11-16Cornell (208.6)IvyH98-101L0%0.0
11-19Albany (88.4)AEA88-67L0%0.0
11-24Fordham (195.2)A10A84-58L0%0.0
11-28UMBC (320.1)AEA63-71W100%0.0
12-1Binghamton (308.8)AEA69-50L0%0.0
12-5TCU (167.8)B12A76-49L0%0.0
12-8Syracuse (52.6)ACCA78-51L0%0.0
12-13New Hampshire (195.3)AEH75-59W100%0.0
12-23Georgia Tech (87.7)ACCA76-60L0%0.0
12-30Lafayette (323.9)PatH77-70W100%0.0
1-3American (264.5)PatA37-56W100%0.0
1-6Holy Cross (284.5)PatA65-63L0%0.0
1-9Navy (177.5)PatH68-71L0%0.0
1-13Army (217.1)PatH80-66W100%0.0
1-16Bucknell (181.1)PatA73-84W100%0.0
1-20Boston University (187.9)PatH85-78W100%0.0
1-24Holy Cross (284.5)PatH76-61W100%0.0
1-27Lehigh (196.0)PatA79-70L0%0.0
1-30American (264.5)PatH49-54L0%0.0
2-1Loyola MD (238.5)PatA68-65L0%0.0
2-6Navy (177.5)PatA55-58W100%0.0
2-8Army (217.1)PatA82-72L0%0.0
2-13Bucknell (181.1)PatH0-042%-2.1
2-17Boston University (187.9)PatA0-031%-5.4
2-21Loyola MD (238.5)PatH0-069%5.3
2-24Lehigh (196.0)PatH0-052%0.5
2-27Lafayette (323.9)PatA0-063%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColgatePat26.4226.4149.5049.08-0.26-0.49
Boston UniversityPat3.134.6558.3358.050.520.75
Holy CrossPat5.124.6240.9138.85-0.93-1.03
AmericanPat5.034.5927.2729.79-2.29-1.86
LafayettePat3.044.5921.7421.93-1.72-2.58
NavyPat5.074.5965.2265.511.541.42
ArmyPat5.034.5954.5554.610.460.42
Loyola MDPat3.034.5930.4332.90-1.19-1.57
LehighPat2.994.5836.3640.41-0.81-0.88
BucknellPat3.034.5554.5556.970.280.63
New HampshireAE2.582.1560.0056.060.520.26
AlbanyAE2.592.1375.0075.501.301.08
BinghamtonAE2.602.1217.3921.38-1.70-1.22
UMBCAE2.492.0925.0027.21-1.25-0.95
CornellIvy2.401.9738.8937.88-0.53-0.48
SyracuseACC2.321.9165.2261.310.710.43
Georgia TechACC2.281.8552.1750.380.100.01
George MasonA102.231.8234.7834.83-0.68-0.55
FordhamA102.221.8150.0048.930.00-0.04
TCUB122.171.7943.4837.33-0.28-0.45
Stony BrookAE0.410.4381.8282.620.260.28
MaineAE0.510.4033.3333.13-0.17-0.13
UMass LowellAE0.280.3434.7835.64-0.09-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.320.3140.0045.48-0.06-0.03
HartfordAE0.270.3125.0026.74-0.14-0.14
PennIvy0.220.2538.8937.69-0.05-0.06
VermontAE0.230.2452.0054.870.010.02
Rhode IslandA100.320.2458.3357.220.050.04
George WashingtonA100.230.2175.0071.920.120.09
ColumbiaIvy0.210.1966.6765.220.070.06
PrincetonIvy0.090.1972.2274.680.040.09
SienaMAAC0.190.1964.0064.110.050.05
HarvardIvy0.190.1935.0038.52-0.06-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.230.1950.0049.490.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.230.1872.7370.400.110.07
KansasB120.230.1882.6179.190.150.11
VCUA100.230.1873.9174.060.110.09
NJITASun0.180.1854.1755.260.010.02
BrownIvy0.200.1631.5831.04-0.07-0.06
YaleIvy0.150.1673.6874.680.070.08
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1644.0045.35-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1650.0051.910.000.01
La SalleA100.100.1519.0520.33-0.06-0.09
MaristMAAC0.220.1521.7424.20-0.13-0.08
MassachusettsA100.100.1540.9139.26-0.02-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1529.1726.73-0.06-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1536.3636.20-0.05-0.04
VirginiaACC0.180.1583.3378.470.120.09
Wake ForestACC0.180.1541.6739.91-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.150.1572.7367.630.070.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.1328.0030.70-0.04-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.090.1354.1754.110.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1242.8642.01-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1234.7837.06-0.04-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.1250.0049.050.00-0.00
RichmondA100.100.1256.5255.730.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.180.1250.0048.130.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.130.1265.2259.750.040.02
USC UpstateASun0.170.1222.7323.25-0.09-0.06
DuquesneA100.130.1260.8756.360.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.1031.5831.74-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.140.0925.0026.40-0.07-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.150.0980.0081.160.090.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.0940.9143.25-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0947.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.0983.3381.320.100.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0937.5043.37-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0929.1733.74-0.06-0.03
WagnerNEC0.140.0963.6465.020.040.03
DavidsonA100.050.0961.9058.060.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0934.7832.42-0.01-0.03
St. John'sBE0.140.0925.0023.45-0.07-0.05
KentuckySEC0.090.0975.0072.630.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.090.0920.0019.76-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.050.0958.3358.370.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0969.5764.900.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0979.1776.070.030.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0983.3378.400.060.05
Notre DameACC0.090.0970.8367.820.040.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0945.8342.32-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0680.0077.960.030.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0613.0413.56-0.07-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0635.0034.80-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0673.9172.580.050.03
HowardMEAC0.100.0636.3638.93-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.100.0686.9682.900.070.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0643.4837.81-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0624.0025.67-0.05-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0645.4547.54-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.310.020.01
LSUSEC0.090.0662.5059.050.020.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0664.0062.090.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0668.1865.160.020.02
USCP120.050.0678.2673.050.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.100.0686.9682.150.070.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0663.6460.930.020.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0666.6766.330.030.02
FurmanSC0.090.0654.1754.080.010.00
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.590.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0645.8346.63-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.090.0682.6179.250.060.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.06-0.04-0.02
VMISC0.090.0615.0016.73-0.06-0.04
BaylorB120.050.0673.9168.480.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0675.0071.800.050.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8368.000.020.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0658.3356.290.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0622.7324.97-0.05-0.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0682.6177.520.060.03
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.580.030.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0614.2924.86-0.06-0.03
TexasB120.090.0666.6762.210.030.01
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.300.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0652.0048.860.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.060.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.04-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.310.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.990.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0324.0024.57-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0053.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.96-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.040.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.89-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.840.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.220.010.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.010.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.040.020.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.920.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0340.9143.75-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5727.00-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.420.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9174.700.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.330.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.16-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.92-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.870.030.02
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.110.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.960.010.00
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.020.010.00