Colgate

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	185.0
Current RPI:	185
Expected SOS:	295
Current SOS:	295
Current Record:	18-13
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-6
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	257
Expected OOC SOS:	272

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	185.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	70-58	L	0%
11-16	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	72-61	W	100%
11-19	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	93-88	W	100%
11-22	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	A	83-79	L	0%
11-25	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	77-71	W	100%
11-29	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	75-69	L	0%
12-2	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	76-65	L	0%
12-6	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	78-76	L	0%
12-9	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	72-58	L	0%
12-12	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	87-76	W	100%
12-29	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	74-79	W	100%
1-2	American (336.0)	Pat	A	63-72	W	100%
1-5	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	68-71	L	0%
1-8	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	70-62	W	100%
1-11	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	72-58	L	0%
1-15	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	51-63	L	0%
1-17	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	72-76	W	100%
1-20	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	77-72	W	100%
1-24	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	78-81	W	100%
1-27	American (336.0)	Pat	H	83-69	W	100%
1-31	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	93-83	L	0%
2-4	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	64-69	W	100%
2-7	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	74-60	W	100%
2-12	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	65-64	L	0%
2-14	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	78-88	L	0%
2-18	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	47-68	W	100%
2-21	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	87-83	W	100%
2-24	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	59-53	W	100%
3-1	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	76-54	W	100%
3-4	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	N	62-55	W	100%
3-7	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	83-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colgate	Pat	26.61	26.61	61.07	61.07	5.89	5.89
Bucknell	Pat	5.91	5.91	70.97	70.97	2.48	2.48
Lafayette	Pat	5.90	5.90	25.93	25.93	-2.84	-2.84
Holy Cross	Pat	5.87	5.87	42.86	42.86	-0.84	-0.84
Army	Pat	4.41	4.41	44.44	44.44	-0.49	-0.49
Boston University	Pat	4.41	4.41	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Loyola MD	Pat	4.38	4.38	28.57	28.57	-1.88	-1.88
Navy	Pat	4.34	4.34	65.52	65.52	1.35	1.35
American	Pat	4.31	4.31	21.43	21.43	-2.46	-2.46
Lehigh	Pat	4.30	4.30	51.85	51.85	0.16	0.16
Albany	AE	1.88	1.88	66.67	66.67	0.63	0.63
Binghamton	AE	1.86	1.86	28.57	28.57	-0.80	-0.80
Columbia	Ivy	1.86	1.86	28.00	28.00	-0.82	-0.82
Cornell	Ivy	1.81	1.81	42.31	42.31	-0.28	-0.28
Marist	MAAC	1.78	1.78	16.67	16.67	-1.19	-1.19
UMBC	AE	1.78	1.78	70.00	70.00	0.71	0.71
Connecticut	Amer	1.72	1.72	41.94	41.94	-0.28	-0.28
Syracuse	ACC	1.72	1.72	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
NJIT	ASun	1.69	1.69	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Boston College	ACC	1.69	1.69	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
UMass Lowell	AE	0.38	0.38	37.93	37.93	-0.09	-0.09
New Hampshire	AE	0.35	0.35	27.59	27.59	-0.15	-0.15
Stony Brook	AE	0.31	0.31	38.71	38.71	-0.07	-0.07
Harvard	Ivy	0.28	0.28	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.28	0.28	25.00	25.00	-0.14	-0.14
Maine	AE	0.27	0.27	13.33	13.33	-0.20	-0.20
Princeton	Ivy	0.26	0.26	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.26	0.26	78.79	78.79	0.15	0.15
Penn	Ivy	0.25	0.25	74.19	74.19	0.12	0.12
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.23	0.23	23.08	23.08	-0.12	-0.12
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Hartford	AE	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Miami FL	ACC	0.18	0.18	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.18	0.18	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	93.94	93.94	0.11	0.11
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Maryland	B10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01