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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Colgate

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:241.0
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:270
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17241.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colgate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13George Mason (201.0)A10A53-66W100%0.0
11-16Cornell (244.0)IvyH98-101L0%0.0
11-19Albany (107.0)AEA88-67L0%0.0
11-24Fordham (176.0)A10A84-58L0%0.0
11-28UMBC (335.0)AEA63-71W100%0.0
12-1Binghamton (299.0)AEA69-50L0%0.0
12-5TCU (174.0)B12A76-49L0%0.0
12-8Syracuse (72.0)ACCA78-51L0%0.0
12-13New Hampshire (177.0)AEH75-59W100%0.0
12-23Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA76-60L0%0.0
12-30Lafayette (329.0)PatH77-70W100%0.0
1-3American (231.0)PatA37-56W100%0.0
1-6Holy Cross (248.0)PatA65-63L0%0.0
1-9Navy (216.0)PatH68-71L0%0.0
1-13Army (214.0)PatH80-66W100%0.0
1-16Bucknell (183.0)PatA73-84W100%0.0
1-20Boston University (196.0)PatH85-78W100%0.0
1-24Holy Cross (248.0)PatH76-61W100%0.0
1-27Lehigh (168.0)PatA79-70L0%0.0
1-30American (231.0)PatH49-54L0%0.0
2-1Loyola MD (255.0)PatA68-65L0%0.0
2-6Navy (216.0)PatA55-58W100%0.0
2-8Army (214.0)PatA82-72L0%0.0
2-13Bucknell (183.0)PatH91-81W100%0.0
2-17Boston University (196.0)PatA71-68L0%0.0
2-21Loyola MD (255.0)PatH93-90W100%0.0
2-24Lehigh (168.0)PatH54-71L0%0.0
2-27Lafayette (329.0)PatA79-77L0%0.0
3-3Army (214.0)PatA79-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colgate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colgate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colgate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ColgatePat26.4326.4345.5345.53-2.36-2.36
ArmyPat6.156.1557.1457.140.880.88
Holy CrossPat4.724.7241.9441.94-0.76-0.76
LehighPat4.594.5948.2848.28-0.16-0.16
NavyPat4.544.5456.6756.670.610.61
Boston UniversityPat4.544.5455.1755.170.470.47
AmericanPat4.544.5437.9337.93-1.10-1.10
LafayettePat4.484.4817.8617.86-2.88-2.88
Loyola MDPat4.474.4728.5728.57-1.92-1.92
BucknellPat4.444.4459.2659.260.820.82
BinghamtonAE2.092.0924.1424.14-1.08-1.08
New HampshireAE2.082.0860.7160.710.450.45
AlbanyAE2.032.0373.3373.330.950.95
UMBCAE2.012.0122.5822.58-1.10-1.10
CornellIvy1.891.8930.7730.77-0.73-0.73
SyracuseACC1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
Georgia TechACC1.781.7856.2556.250.220.22
George MasonA101.751.7535.4835.48-0.51-0.51
FordhamA101.751.7553.5753.570.130.13
TCUB121.721.7234.3834.38-0.54-0.54
Stony BrookAE0.420.4280.0080.000.250.25
MaineAE0.390.3926.6726.67-0.18-0.18
UMass LowellAE0.310.3135.7135.71-0.09-0.09
HartfordAE0.310.3128.1228.12-0.13-0.13
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2842.4242.42-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.260.2660.6160.610.050.05
PennIvy0.230.2337.0437.04-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.220.2269.7069.700.090.09
Rhode IslandA100.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
ColumbiaIvy0.180.1865.5265.520.060.06
SienaMAAC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
HarvardIvy0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
NJITASun0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
PittsburghACC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
MaristMAAC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
KansasB120.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
VirginiaACC0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
YaleIvy0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
BrownIvy0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.140.1444.1244.12-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00