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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:267.5
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:254
Current Record:8-13
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:298
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14200.80.21%
14-15215.11.81%
13-16231.48.36%
12-17249.720.18%
11-18266.930.33%
10-19282.325.88%
9-20295.711.05%
8-21307.52.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Sacred Heart (275.0)NECN64-76L0%0.0
11-18Vermont (150.4)AEA83-70L0%0.0
11-22Holy Cross (290.7)PatH62-56W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACH69-59W100%0.0
12-1Albany (90.5)AEH54-58L0%0.0
12-4Niagara (308.0)MAACA76-72L0%0.0
12-5Canisius (216.9)MAACA76-78W100%0.0
12-9Hartford (314.2)AEA66-68W100%0.0
12-13Boston University (193.8)PatH57-64L0%0.0
12-21Oregon St. (57.3)P12A82-61L0%0.0
12-29Maine (301.0)AEA98-95L0%0.0
1-2Iona (124.5)MAACH66-78L0%0.0
1-4Rider (226.7)MAACH64-60W100%0.0
1-9Monmouth (41.5)MAACA88-74L0%0.0
1-15Siena (100.1)MAACH52-64L0%0.0
1-17Canisius (216.9)MAACH53-63L0%0.0
1-24Rider (226.7)MAACA75-52L0%0.0
1-28Monmouth (41.5)MAACH51-66L0%0.0
1-30Niagara (308.0)MAACH82-68W100%0.0
2-1Fairfield (170.0)MAACA59-64W100%0.0
2-4Marist (312.2)MAACH79-53W100%0.0
2-8Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACA0-029%-6.2
2-11Manhattan (226.6)MAACA0-034%-4.5
2-13Fairfield (170.0)MAACH0-046%-1.2
2-15Iona (124.5)MAACA0-011%-13.6
2-18Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACH0-052%0.5
2-21Manhattan (226.6)MAACH0-058%2.2
2-26Marist (312.2)MAACA0-047%-0.8
2-28Siena (100.1)MAACA0-010%-13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC26.4426.4235.6436.61-7.59-7.08
NiagaraMAAC5.514.5821.7422.81-3.11-2.49
MaristMAAC3.174.5723.8124.60-1.66-2.32
SienaMAAC3.224.5562.5062.000.801.09
CanisiusMAAC5.504.5243.4844.99-0.72-0.45
RiderMAAC5.404.5239.1341.56-1.17-0.76
FairfieldMAAC3.224.5256.5256.050.420.55
IonaMAAC3.224.5259.0958.210.590.74
MonmouthMAAC5.354.4977.2779.432.922.64
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.894.4538.1040.56-0.21-0.84
ManhattanMAAC0.884.4242.8641.04-0.13-0.79
HartfordAE2.832.1327.2727.42-1.28-0.96
AlbanyAE2.882.1373.9175.021.381.06
VermontAE2.832.0752.1756.050.120.25
Holy CrossPat2.691.9640.9139.71-0.49-0.40
MaineAE2.631.9331.8231.64-0.96-0.71
Boston UniversityPat2.581.8752.1754.040.110.15
Sacred HeartNEC2.531.8431.8234.82-0.92-0.56
Oregon St.P122.431.7860.0054.810.490.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.381.7226.3234.54-1.13-0.53
BucknellPat0.250.2954.5558.140.020.05
New HampshireAE0.300.2955.0053.180.030.02
UMass LowellAE0.360.2931.8232.67-0.13-0.10
ArmyPat0.310.2652.1753.380.010.02
BinghamtonAE0.250.2621.7424.67-0.14-0.13
DartmouthIvy0.350.2631.5831.79-0.13-0.09
WagnerNEC0.400.2663.6465.030.110.08
CornellIvy0.290.2642.1140.16-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.2437.5043.37-0.05-0.03
BrownIvy0.250.2431.5831.05-0.09-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.200.2380.9582.700.130.15
UMBCAE0.300.2324.0026.41-0.16-0.11
Loyola MDPat0.200.2334.7837.15-0.06-0.06
LafayettePat0.200.2122.7324.04-0.11-0.11
St. BonaventureA100.290.2071.4368.970.120.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.1847.8348.91-0.01-0.00
YaleIvy0.250.1773.6874.650.120.09
USCP120.260.1778.2673.060.140.08
LehighPat0.250.1733.3337.25-0.08-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1520.0026.74-0.06-0.07
ColgatePat0.200.1545.4546.10-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.200.1456.5256.610.030.02
HofstraCAA0.190.1465.2264.220.060.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1229.1733.15-0.06-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.1250.0051.910.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.1266.6765.210.020.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.1242.8650.41-0.020.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1221.7423.32-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1213.0413.54-0.11-0.09
PrincetonIvy0.100.1272.2274.710.040.06
UCLAP120.160.1256.5253.240.020.01
AmericanPat0.100.1230.4331.89-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.200.1262.5062.450.050.03
BryantNEC0.100.1225.0026.37-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.150.1213.6418.14-0.11-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.150.1263.6459.440.040.02
FordhamA100.050.0955.0052.290.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0930.4335.11-0.04-0.03
TulsaAmer0.110.0965.2261.450.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0981.8283.040.070.06
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0950.0049.440.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.150.0935.0038.52-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0966.6763.420.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.140.0859.0958.880.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.150.0875.0070.940.070.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0731.8236.14-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0721.0523.58-0.03-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0735.0035.98-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0665.2262.880.020.02
ColoradoP120.110.0669.5765.330.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0652.0050.250.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0634.7834.15-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0678.2674.420.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.8760.770.000.01
OregonP120.060.0682.6179.210.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0685.7185.390.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.0673.9169.830.000.02
StanfordP120.060.0650.0046.610.00-0.00
UtahP120.110.0669.5767.480.040.02
KansasB120.110.0681.8277.570.070.03
AkronMAC0.050.0681.8280.030.030.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0673.9172.480.050.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.860.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.51-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.00
KentuckySEC0.100.0673.9171.550.050.02
NJITASun0.100.0654.1755.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.690.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.0645.8346.66-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.0019.66-0.06-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0623.8126.56-0.05-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.74-0.05-0.03
DaytonA100.100.0686.3682.380.070.04
DukeACC0.050.0673.9170.040.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.100.0654.1752.340.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0652.6350.220.010.00
La SalleA100.100.0620.0020.45-0.06-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.100.0687.5083.690.070.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0614.2917.92-0.07-0.04
Notre DameACC0.100.0669.5765.850.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.780.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.270.000.00
RutgersB100.100.0621.7420.35-0.06-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0682.6178.890.060.03
St. John'sBE0.100.0626.0923.72-0.05-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0660.8755.840.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0360.8760.240.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.5213.52-0.05-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0359.0959.440.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0357.1459.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0369.5766.510.020.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0371.4368.710.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.170.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0316.6720.13-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0340.9149.27-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0350.0053.300.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0365.0066.790.020.01
ArizonaP120.060.0379.1778.330.030.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0354.1751.660.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0335.0032.27-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0355.0054.530.010.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.72-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0365.2261.070.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0336.3632.00-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.50-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.260.010.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.44-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.090.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.36-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.020.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01