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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:175.3
Current RPI:45
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:8
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-553.00.05%
23-656.60.34%
22-771.90.90%
21-888.51.96%
20-9102.54.45%
19-10120.38.55%
18-11139.312.43%
17-12158.515.52%
16-13178.016.31%
15-14196.815.05%
14-15216.711.14%
13-16236.07.13%
12-17254.03.63%
11-18271.51.58%
10-19287.30.68%
9-20296.00.23%
8-21298.30.03%
6-23318.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Yale (110.8)IvyH89-85W100%0.0
11-18La Salle (108.6)A10H58-60L0%0.0
11-22Albany (149.1)AEA0-035%-4.8
11-25Hartford (289.9)AEH0-085%12.3
11-30Vermont (131.0)AEH0-055%1.6
12-5Siena (134.9)MAACA0-032%-5.6
12-7Fairfield (241.7)MAACH0-079%9.7
12-14Boston University (121.9)PatA0-032%-5.7
12-18Lehigh (231.8)PatH0-073%7.3
12-21Oregon St. (158.5)P12H0-051%0.4
12-29Maine (343.2)AEH0-095%19.6
1-2Saint Peter's (303.9)MAACH0-083%11.2
1-6Iona (78.5)MAACA0-024%-8.6
1-9Monmouth (136.0)MAACA0-032%-5.5
1-11Marist (218.2)MAACH0-071%6.5
1-15Rider (185.5)MAACH0-066%5.0
1-18Marist (218.2)MAACA0-048%-0.7
1-21Saint Peter's (303.9)MAACA0-063%4.1
1-23Manhattan (151.2)MAACH0-055%1.5
1-30Canisius (130.3)MAACA0-036%-4.2
2-1Niagara (288.1)MAACA0-067%5.3
2-5Monmouth (136.0)MAACH0-055%1.6
2-8Niagara (288.1)MAACH0-085%12.5
2-13Fairfield (241.7)MAACA0-058%2.6
2-15Iona (78.5)MAACH0-045%-1.4
2-19Rider (185.5)MAACA0-043%-2.2
2-21Canisius (130.3)MAACH0-060%3.0
2-27Siena (134.9)MAACH0-055%1.6
3-1Manhattan (151.2)MAACA0-032%-5.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC37.5026.4530.0052.48-15.001.31
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.600.0025.96-0.00-2.21
CanisiusMAAC0.004.57100.0057.400.000.68
RiderMAAC0.004.5766.6751.780.000.16
NiagaraMAAC0.004.5650.0029.220.00-1.90
SienaMAAC0.004.5633.3359.07-0.000.83
FairfieldMAAC0.004.5433.3334.70-0.00-1.39
IonaMAAC0.004.5166.6767.050.001.54
MonmouthMAAC0.004.5150.0059.570.000.86
ManhattanMAAC0.004.500.0057.19-0.000.65
MaristMAAC0.004.500.0043.64-0.00-0.57
AlbanyAE0.002.1150.0063.910.000.59
HartfordAE0.002.1166.6739.500.00-0.44
VermontAE0.002.0650.0066.800.000.69
MaineAE0.001.910.0017.23-0.00-1.25
LehighPat0.001.900.0036.01-0.00-0.53
Boston UniversityPat0.001.8433.3357.49-0.000.28
YaleIvy25.001.82100.0059.4925.000.34
La SalleA1025.001.78100.0054.3925.000.16
Oregon St.P120.001.72100.0050.130.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.340.0039.15-0.00-0.07
BucknellPat0.000.3333.3346.82-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.320.0025.28-0.00-0.16
Stony BrookAE0.000.3033.3363.09-0.000.08
MassachusettsA100.000.29100.0063.880.000.08
New HampshireAE0.000.270.0041.70-0.00-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.2733.3331.34-0.00-0.10
UMBCAE0.000.270.0035.60-0.00-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.000.24100.0060.630.000.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.2466.6738.520.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.2440.0041.64-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.230.0034.73-0.00-0.07
ArmyPat0.000.22100.0057.810.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.2150.0050.390.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.200.0035.33-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat6.250.180.0036.43-6.25-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.180.0043.90-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1833.3349.73-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.1750.0036.270.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.1566.6762.890.000.04
AmericanPat0.000.1566.6764.270.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.150.0033.39-0.00-0.05
NJITind0.000.1533.3328.81-0.00-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1533.3333.43-0.00-0.05
George MasonA100.000.1525.0022.09-0.00-0.08
NavyPat0.000.120.0032.22-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1250.0066.890.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.120.0037.45-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1266.6751.250.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.1266.6759.850.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.12100.0071.730.000.05
BrownIvy0.000.1233.3338.39-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1166.6774.980.000.06
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0058.420.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.690.00-0.02
USCP120.000.0950.0026.710.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0950.0060.970.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.310.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.09100.0069.720.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0057.560.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.09100.0048.380.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.080.0034.27-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0054.88-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0866.6745.850.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0068.970.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.82-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0054.32-0.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0061.850.000.01
VMISC0.000.0650.0043.730.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.460.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.05-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.540.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0066.070.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0067.360.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0044.57-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.300.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.680.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.030.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0072.160.000.03
DukeACC0.000.06100.0086.380.000.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0036.810.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0061.070.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.84-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.72-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.210.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0054.170.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.340.000.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0046.320.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.580.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0054.180.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0073.240.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0045.780.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.420.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.870.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0050.390.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6770.360.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz6.250.0333.3336.31-2.08-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0067.860.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0333.3351.38-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.390.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6763.800.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0062.660.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0366.6760.730.000.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02