live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:268.6
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:206
Current SOS:78
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10117.00.01%
19-11110.00.01%
18-12142.80.05%
17-13162.10.18%
16-14174.70.75%
15-15192.22.07%
14-16210.74.92%
13-17227.68.66%
12-18244.813.20%
11-19261.316.34%
10-20276.217.72%
9-21289.814.57%
8-22302.611.03%
7-23313.06.40%
6-24321.72.68%
5-25329.71.06%
4-26335.70.30%
3-27339.50.02%
2-28344.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Vermont (91.3)AEH70-94L0%0.0
11-21Columbia (253.3)IvyH78-86L0%0.0
11-24Gonzaga (10.2)WCCN62-82L0%0.0
11-25Seton Hall (76.8)BEN90-79L0%0.0
11-27Indiana St. (156.7)MVCN80-77W100%0.0
12-1Monmouth (65.5)MAACH72-91L0%0.0
12-4Marist (236.1)MAACH0-061%3.3
12-7Hartford (335.7)AEH0-077%8.9
12-11Holy Cross (183.0)PatA0-029%-6.6
12-18Maine (310.8)AEA0-056%1.8
12-21Drexel (245.8)CAAH0-054%1.3
12-29Brown (272.3)IvyA0-037%-4.0
1-2Niagara (304.2)MAACA0-045%-1.4
1-4Canisius (211.7)MAACA0-031%-6.0
1-7Manhattan (234.2)MAACH0-056%1.9
1-9Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACA0-023%-9.0
1-12Siena (144.9)MAACA0-019%-10.7
1-14Iona (82.5)MAACH0-024%-8.6
1-20Canisius (211.7)MAACH0-050%0.1
1-23Iona (82.5)MAACA0-011%-14.8
1-27Monmouth (65.5)MAACA0-08%-16.5
1-30Siena (144.9)MAACH0-035%-4.5
2-4Niagara (304.2)MAACH0-066%4.8
2-6Fairfield (134.7)MAACA0-019%-10.6
2-9Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACH0-041%-2.8
2-11Rider (212.4)MAACA0-028%-7.0
2-17Fairfield (134.7)MAACH0-036%-4.4
2-19Manhattan (234.2)MAACA0-036%-4.2
2-23Marist (236.1)MAACA0-041%-2.9
2-26Rider (212.4)MAACH0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC28.6026.3713.8933.12-20.65-8.90
MaristMAAC0.524.4042.8634.75-0.07-1.34
NiagaraMAAC0.004.4016.6725.83-0.00-2.13
MonmouthMAAC8.334.3766.6769.902.781.74
RiderMAAC0.004.3750.0046.990.00-0.26
SienaMAAC0.004.3428.5748.95-0.00-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.004.3133.3340.28-0.00-0.84
IonaMAAC0.004.3160.0069.270.001.66
ManhattanMAAC0.004.3133.3337.12-0.00-1.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.3160.0051.650.000.14
FairfieldMAAC0.004.3083.3361.290.000.97
HartfordAE0.001.9112.5022.54-0.00-1.05
VermontAE8.331.8857.1470.651.190.78
BrownIvy0.001.8750.0041.660.00-0.31
MaineAE0.001.8616.6724.96-0.00-0.93
DrexelCAA0.601.8542.8636.52-0.09-0.50
Holy CrossPat0.601.8042.8646.91-0.09-0.11
ColumbiaIvy8.931.7833.3340.17-2.98-0.35
Seton HallBE8.931.7066.6752.952.980.10
GonzagaWCC8.331.67100.0090.758.331.36
Indiana St.MVC8.331.6740.0048.48-1.67-0.05
AlbanyAE0.000.4150.0060.380.000.09
DartmouthIvy0.000.320.0023.47-0.00-0.17
CornellIvy0.600.2328.5730.63-0.26-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.600.2316.6733.82-0.40-0.07
HofstraCAA1.120.2257.1440.550.16-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.2275.0067.660.000.08
UMass LowellAE0.000.2225.0040.81-0.00-0.04
PennIvy0.000.2140.0057.97-0.000.03
ArmyPat0.600.2033.3345.58-0.20-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1916.6729.36-0.00-0.08
New HampshireAE0.000.1950.0057.480.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1950.0053.530.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1940.0040.65-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.180.0043.04-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.520.1833.3364.14-0.170.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1825.0063.95-0.000.05
WagnerNEC0.000.1633.3353.85-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.1642.8640.94-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.1680.0055.340.000.02
FordhamA100.000.1657.1443.680.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1666.6770.740.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.520.1471.4356.280.220.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.600.1420.0034.22-0.36-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.1433.3331.87-0.00-0.05
RutgersB100.000.1483.3344.770.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC1.120.14100.0080.781.120.08
BuffaloMAC0.000.1440.0050.91-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.1128.5743.62-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.600.1140.0037.65-0.12-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0075.690.000.06
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3340.49-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1171.4350.570.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1142.8638.05-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1183.3358.030.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1157.1448.240.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1171.4370.330.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.1150.0049.010.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.1150.0054.490.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1183.3357.990.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1140.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1185.7162.410.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1175.0070.470.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1142.8637.60-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.600.0920.0041.31-0.36-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6737.09-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0842.8650.32-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0887.5078.680.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3358.080.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.600.080.0027.77-0.60-0.04
SyracuseACC0.600.0866.6770.140.200.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.600.0628.5750.20-0.260.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0633.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC1.390.0642.8645.30-0.20-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Iowa St.B121.290.0671.4368.970.550.02
StanfordP121.290.0675.0059.100.640.01
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
FloridaSEC1.190.0687.5075.320.890.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0516.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0516.6730.27-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0019.51-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0550.0071.330.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0557.1444.160.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0056.260.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.050.0034.18-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0557.1459.480.000.01
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0528.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0086.250.000.04
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0585.7159.740.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0585.7180.010.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0024.32-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0580.0068.320.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6732.240.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0054.320.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.44-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0550.0064.840.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0520.0054.94-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0583.3380.550.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0560.0070.500.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.690.0350.0052.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
HoustonAmer0.520.0383.3376.370.350.01
IowaB100.600.0342.8644.33-0.09-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.600.030.0024.77-0.60-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.600.0375.0074.990.300.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.600.0360.0058.950.120.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
WoffordSC0.520.030.0033.58-0.52-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01