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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:272.0
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:211
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21272.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Vermont (46.0)AEH70-94L0%0.0
11-21Columbia (262.0)IvyH78-86L0%0.0
11-24Gonzaga (8.0)WCCN62-82L0%0.0
11-25Seton Hall (43.0)BEN90-79L0%0.0
11-27Indiana St. (234.0)MVCN80-77W100%0.0
12-1Monmouth (49.0)MAACH72-91L0%0.0
12-4Marist (276.0)MAACH77-63W100%0.0
12-7Hartford (327.0)AEH99-79W100%0.0
12-11Holy Cross (204.0)PatA75-57L0%0.0
12-18Maine (322.0)AEA75-85W100%0.0
12-21Drexel (308.0)CAAH74-91L0%0.0
12-29Brown (284.0)IvyA66-61L0%0.0
1-2Niagara (275.0)MAACA78-81W100%0.0
1-4Canisius (171.0)MAACA83-77L0%0.0
1-7Manhattan (263.0)MAACH81-72W100%0.0
1-9Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA58-54L0%0.0
1-12Siena (122.0)MAACA81-74L0%0.0
1-14Iona (89.0)MAACH97-91W100%0.0
1-20Canisius (171.0)MAACH95-90W100%0.0
1-23Iona (89.0)MAACA84-74L0%0.0
1-27Monmouth (49.0)MAACA95-76L0%0.0
1-30Siena (122.0)MAACH75-84L0%0.0
2-4Niagara (275.0)MAACH89-81W100%0.0
2-6Fairfield (180.0)MAACA71-73W100%0.0
2-9Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH45-76L0%0.0
2-11Rider (198.0)MAACA112-107L0%0.0
2-17Fairfield (180.0)MAACH86-89L0%0.0
2-19Manhattan (263.0)MAACA95-74L0%0.0
2-23Marist (276.0)MAACA87-74L0%0.0
2-26Rider (198.0)MAACH82-99L0%0.0
3-2Niagara (275.0)MAACN69-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC26.3826.3830.3430.34-10.37-10.37
NiagaraMAAC5.865.8630.0030.00-2.34-2.34
SienaMAAC4.354.3546.8846.88-0.27-0.27
MonmouthMAAC4.344.3480.6580.652.662.66
IonaMAAC4.324.3265.6265.621.351.35
RiderMAAC4.324.3251.6151.610.140.14
MaristMAAC4.294.2923.3323.33-2.29-2.29
CanisiusMAAC4.274.2754.8454.840.410.41
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.264.2656.6756.670.570.57
ManhattanMAAC4.214.2130.0030.00-1.69-1.69
FairfieldMAAC4.214.2153.5753.570.300.30
HartfordAE1.861.8629.0329.03-0.78-0.78
VermontAE1.841.8484.3884.381.261.26
BrownIvy1.821.8237.0437.04-0.47-0.47
MaineAE1.821.8220.0020.00-1.09-1.09
DrexelCAA1.811.8123.3323.33-0.96-0.96
Holy CrossPat1.741.7445.1645.16-0.17-0.17
ColumbiaIvy1.721.7236.0036.00-0.48-0.48
Seton HallBE1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
GonzagaWCC1.611.6196.8896.881.511.51
Indiana St.MVC1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
AlbanyAE0.430.4360.6160.610.090.09
DartmouthIvy0.300.3025.9325.93-0.14-0.14
CornellIvy0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
HofstraCAA0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
UMass LowellAE0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.200.2058.6258.620.030.03
PennIvy0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1810.0010.00-0.14-0.14
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
DelawareCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
HarvardIvy0.170.1761.5461.540.040.04
YaleIvy0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.170.1778.5778.570.100.10
WagnerNEC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
RutgersB100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
LafayettePat0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
NevadaMWC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00