Quinnipiac

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	175.1
Current RPI:	188
Expected SOS:	257
Current SOS:	299
Current Record:	13-10
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	6-6
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	4.65%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	99
Expected OOC SOS:	215

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	135.8	3.35%
18-11	151.3	17.31%
17-12	168.0	33.92%
16-13	185.4	29.13%
15-14	201.9	13.26%
14-15	217.9	2.76%
13-16	231.2	0.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	N	60-72	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	H	68-62	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Navy (318.8)	Pat	H	78-54	W	100%	0.0
11-22	American (150.9)	Pat	A	74-73	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Lehigh (109.7)	Pat	A	86-75	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	H	55-68	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	83-72	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	61-70	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	58-62	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	A	72-67	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	85-81	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Colgate (296.0)	Pat	A	70-80	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	59-53	W	100%	0.0
1-5	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	73-72	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	75-79	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	76-78	W	100%	0.0
1-14	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	A	74-71	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	78-75	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	71-78	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	69-66	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	H	50-51	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	48-65	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	A	48-71	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	0-0		70%	5.6
2-11	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	0-0		46%	-1.2
2-16	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	0-0		70%	5.6
2-18	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	A	0-0		34%	-4.5
2-23	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	0-0		49%	-0.2
2-25	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	0-0		89%	13.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Quinnipiac	NEC	26.25	26.26	60.36	59.02	5.44	4.74
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.82	4.33	39.13	42.15	-1.05	-0.68
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.92	4.32	45.45	45.96	-0.08	-0.35
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.91	4.32	18.18	20.34	-1.85	-2.56
Bryant	NEC	4.82	4.27	9.09	11.63	-3.95	-3.28
Robert Morris	NEC	2.72	4.21	70.83	73.10	1.13	1.94
Long Island	NEC	2.77	4.17	69.57	70.20	1.08	1.69
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.77	4.17	54.55	55.26	0.25	0.44
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.86	2.63	27.27	29.63	-1.30	-1.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.81	2.59	9.09	12.57	-2.30	-1.94
Monmouth	NEC	2.77	2.57	29.17	29.87	-1.15	-1.04
Wagner	NEC	2.77	2.57	81.82	84.02	1.76	1.75
Lehigh	Pat	2.55	2.08	72.73	74.02	1.16	1.00
Hartford	AE	2.54	2.04	18.18	21.71	-1.62	-1.16
Colgate	Pat	2.46	2.03	31.82	30.55	-0.90	-0.79
American	Pat	2.46	2.00	63.64	62.50	0.67	0.50
Vermont	AE	2.51	1.99	62.50	64.57	0.63	0.58
Niagara	MAAC	2.37	1.96	39.13	42.92	-0.51	-0.28
Navy	Pat	2.41	1.96	10.00	13.69	-1.93	-1.42
Yale	Ivy	2.44	1.96	76.47	65.72	1.29	0.62
Boston University	AE	2.31	1.84	50.00	53.61	0.00	0.13
Massachusetts	A10	2.17	1.79	72.73	67.50	0.99	0.63
Fairfield	MAAC	2.26	1.78	52.38	52.67	0.11	0.10
Lafayette	Pat	0.61	0.56	43.48	42.95	-0.08	-0.08
Army	Pat	0.39	0.45	40.91	41.72	-0.07	-0.08
Holy Cross	Pat	0.48	0.39	40.91	42.05	-0.09	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.48	0.39	27.27	23.80	-0.22	-0.20
Albany	AE	0.47	0.38	60.00	60.42	0.09	0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.28	0.33	73.91	75.00	0.14	0.16
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.28	0.32	21.74	24.58	-0.16	-0.16
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.23	0.29	13.64	16.35	-0.16	-0.20
New Hampshire	AE	0.41	0.29	35.00	38.58	-0.12	-0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.31	0.26	66.67	68.05	0.10	0.09
Siena	MAAC	0.28	0.23	45.45	45.55	-0.03	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.23	70.83	68.82	0.08	0.09
Columbia	Ivy	0.19	0.21	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.23	0.21	33.33	38.38	-0.08	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.23	0.20	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.06
Binghamton	AE	0.22	0.20	0.00	4.02	-0.22	-0.18
Iona	MAAC	0.23	0.20	79.17	80.10	0.13	0.12
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.20	37.50	38.52	-0.03	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.24	0.18	14.29	17.17	-0.17	-0.12
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.19	0.17	77.27	73.45	0.10	0.08
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.17	34.78	33.43	-0.07	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.13	0.17	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.27	0.17	30.43	26.44	-0.10	-0.08
Cornell	Ivy	0.14	0.15	36.84	41.45	-0.04	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.15	0.15	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.15	90.48	87.91	0.15	0.11
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.15	68.18	69.68	0.05	0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.14	0.14	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.14	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.12	20.83	20.60	-0.09	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.12	79.17	78.10	0.08	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.19	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.19	0.12	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.12	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.12	17.39	19.81	-0.09	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.12	68.00	69.07	0.05	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.12	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.12	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.12	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.18	0.11	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.18	0.11	65.22	62.65	0.05	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.10	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.09	-0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.09	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.08	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.08	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.13	0.08	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.00	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.00	0.01
Elon	SC	0.10	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.06	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.06	0.00	5.37	-0.09	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.05	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.08	-0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.04	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.04	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.04	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.04	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00