Quinnipiac

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	277.0
Current RPI:	277
Expected SOS:	290
Current SOS:	290
Current Record:	12-21
Expected Record:	12-21
Current Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	336
Expected OOC SOS:	334

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-21	277.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	78-77	W	100%
11-13	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	72-79	L	0%
11-17	Colorado (82.0)	P12	N	70-69	L	0%
11-18	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	N	72-55	L	0%
11-19	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	84-72	L	0%
11-26	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	72-78	L	0%
11-29	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	H	68-66	W	100%
12-2	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	79-58	L	0%
12-4	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	87-89	W	100%
12-7	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	77-75	L	0%
12-18	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	72-71	L	0%
12-21	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	80-73	L	0%
12-28	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	78-76	W	100%
1-1	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	70-71	W	100%
1-5	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	74-82	L	0%
1-7	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	84-58	L	0%
1-10	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	80-79	W	100%
1-12	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	78-60	L	0%
1-18	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	73-81	L	0%
1-21	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	76-69	W	100%
1-25	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	77-85	W	100%
1-27	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	75-70	W	100%
2-2	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	87-82	L	0%
2-4	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	59-74	L	0%
2-8	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	95-76	L	0%
2-10	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	71-64	L	0%
2-15	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	71-70	W	100%
2-17	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	102-98	L	0%
2-23	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	43-52	L	0%
2-25	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	92-86	L	0%
3-1	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	58-67	W	100%
3-2	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	N	69-72	W	100%
3-4	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	74-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Quinnipiac	MAAC	26.47	26.47	37.58	37.58	-6.57	-6.57
Fairfield	MAAC	5.41	5.41	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	5.33	5.33	27.59	27.59	-2.39	-2.39
Canisius	MAAC	5.31	5.31	65.52	65.52	1.65	1.65
Marist	MAAC	3.98	3.98	20.69	20.69	-2.33	-2.33
Saint Peter's	MAAC	3.94	3.94	40.00	40.00	-0.79	-0.79
Rider	MAAC	3.91	3.91	68.97	68.97	1.48	1.48
Niagara	MAAC	3.91	3.91	56.67	56.67	0.52	0.52
Manhattan	MAAC	3.84	3.84	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Iona	MAAC	2.58	2.58	59.38	59.38	0.48	0.48
Monmouth	MAAC	2.46	2.46	36.67	36.67	-0.66	-0.66
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.75	1.75	24.00	24.00	-0.91	-0.91
Vermont	AE	1.74	1.74	78.12	78.12	0.98	0.98
Maine	AE	1.71	1.71	10.34	10.34	-1.36	-1.36
Brown	Ivy	1.68	1.68	36.00	36.00	-0.47	-0.47
Hartford	AE	1.66	1.66	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Columbia	Ivy	1.66	1.66	28.00	28.00	-0.73	-0.73
Drexel	CAA	1.59	1.59	35.48	35.48	-0.46	-0.46
Massachusetts	A10	1.59	1.59	40.62	40.62	-0.30	-0.30
Lafayette	Pat	1.59	1.59	27.59	27.59	-0.71	-0.71
Liberty	BSth	1.54	1.54	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Wake Forest	ACC	1.54	1.54	33.33	33.33	-0.51	-0.51
Colorado	P12	1.52	1.52	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Albany	AE	0.39	0.39	67.74	67.74	0.14	0.14
New Hampshire	AE	0.32	0.32	27.59	27.59	-0.14	-0.14
Penn	Ivy	0.29	0.29	74.19	74.19	0.14	0.14
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Army	Pat	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.25	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
UMass Lowell	AE	0.25	0.25	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.24	0.24	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.24	0.24	78.12	78.12	0.13	0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.19	0.19	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.19	0.19	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Loyola MD	Pat	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.17	0.17	73.53	73.53	0.08	0.08
Elon	CAA	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.15	0.15	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Binghamton	AE	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	CAA	0.14	0.14	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Houston	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01