live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:226.0
Current RPI:226
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:256
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:9-12
Expected Conf Record:9-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:145
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15226.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Yale (64.0)IvyH88-85W100%0.0
11-18La Salle (101.0)A10H58-60L0%0.0
11-22Albany (99.0)AEA73-76W100%0.0
11-25Hartford (244.0)AEH50-54L0%0.0
11-30Vermont (203.0)AEH89-73W100%0.0
12-5Siena (261.0)MAACA88-67L0%0.0
12-7Fairfield (299.0)MAACH52-56L0%0.0
12-14Boston University (198.0)PatA71-68L0%0.0
12-18Lehigh (175.0)PatH80-65W100%0.0
12-21Oregon St. (133.0)P12H60-52W100%0.0
12-29Maine (339.0)AEH81-64W100%0.0
1-2Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH60-66L0%0.0
1-6Iona (51.0)MAACA81-73L0%0.0
1-9Monmouth (176.0)MAACA64-68W100%0.0
1-11Marist (317.0)MAACH66-54W100%0.0
1-15Rider (140.0)MAACH53-56L0%0.0
1-18Marist (317.0)MAACA71-72W100%0.0
1-21Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA55-63W100%0.0
1-23Manhattan (168.0)MAACH73-59W100%0.0
1-30Canisius (180.0)MAACA63-57L0%0.0
2-1Niagara (287.0)MAACA105-100L0%0.0
2-5Monmouth (176.0)MAACH72-52W100%0.0
2-8Niagara (287.0)MAACH91-69W100%0.0
2-13Fairfield (299.0)MAACA59-60W100%0.0
2-15Iona (51.0)MAACH57-60L0%0.0
2-19Rider (140.0)MAACA94-83L0%0.0
2-21Canisius (180.0)MAACH63-65L0%0.0
2-27Siena (261.0)MAACH73-63W100%0.0
3-1Manhattan (168.0)MAACA69-65L0%0.0
3-5Marist (317.0)MAACN74-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC26.4326.4346.4346.43-1.89-1.89
MaristMAAC5.995.9920.6920.69-3.51-3.51
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.574.5746.8846.88-0.29-0.29
ManhattanMAAC4.504.5060.0060.000.900.90
IonaMAAC4.494.4975.0075.002.252.25
SienaMAAC4.484.4834.4834.48-1.39-1.39
MonmouthMAAC4.444.4458.0658.060.720.72
RiderMAAC4.434.4363.3363.331.181.18
NiagaraMAAC4.434.4325.0025.00-2.21-2.21
CanisiusMAAC4.434.4350.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC4.404.4020.6920.69-2.58-2.58
AlbanyAE2.052.0577.4277.421.131.13
HartfordAE2.012.0142.8642.86-0.29-0.29
VermontAE1.971.9758.6258.620.340.34
MaineAE1.861.8610.3410.34-1.47-1.47
LehighPat1.831.8353.5753.570.130.13
Boston UniversityPat1.771.7739.2939.29-0.38-0.38
YaleIvy1.751.7568.9768.970.660.66
La SalleA101.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P121.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
Stony BrookAE0.330.3365.6265.620.100.10
BucknellPat0.330.3356.2556.250.040.04
PennIvy0.320.3232.1432.14-0.11-0.11
New HampshireAE0.300.3058.6258.620.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.300.3016.6716.67-0.20-0.20
MassachusettsA100.290.2953.1253.120.020.02
UMBCAE0.280.2813.3313.33-0.20-0.20
UMass LowellAE0.250.2539.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.230.2344.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1916.1316.13-0.13-0.13
LafayettePat0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
AmericanPat0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
ColgatePat0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.140.1474.0774.070.070.07
NJITind0.140.1456.0056.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
George MasonA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02