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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:290
Current SOS:290
Current Record:12-21
Expected Record:12-21
Current Conf Record:9-12
Expected Conf Record:9-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-21277.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH78-77W100%0.0
11-13Brown (298.0)IvyH72-79L0%0.0
11-17Colorado (82.0)P12N70-69L0%0.0
11-18Wake Forest (160.0)ACCN72-55L0%0.0
11-19Liberty (211.0)BSthA84-72L0%0.0
11-26Maine (338.0)AEH72-78L0%0.0
11-29Massachusetts (240.0)A10H68-66W100%0.0
12-2Lafayette (311.0)PatA79-58L0%0.0
12-4Columbia (316.0)IvyA87-89W100%0.0
12-7Hartford (198.0)AEA77-75L0%0.0
12-18Drexel (242.0)CAAA72-71L0%0.0
12-21Vermont (60.0)AEA80-73L0%0.0
12-28Monmouth (199.0)MAACH78-76W100%0.0
1-1Siena (299.0)MAACA70-71W100%0.0
1-5Canisius (124.0)MAACH74-82L0%0.0
1-7Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACA84-58L0%0.0
1-10Marist (324.0)MAACH80-79W100%0.0
1-12Rider (69.0)MAACA78-60L0%0.0
1-18Niagara (163.0)MAACH73-81L0%0.0
1-21Siena (299.0)MAACH76-69W100%0.0
1-25Marist (324.0)MAACA77-85W100%0.0
1-27Fairfield (180.0)MAACN75-70W100%0.0
2-2Iona (107.0)MAACA87-82L0%0.0
2-4Rider (69.0)MAACH59-74L0%0.0
2-8Niagara (163.0)MAACA95-76L0%0.0
2-10Canisius (124.0)MAACA71-64L0%0.0
2-15Manhattan (228.0)MAACH71-70W100%0.0
2-17Fairfield (180.0)MAACA102-98L0%0.0
2-23Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACH43-52L0%0.0
2-25Manhattan (228.0)MAACA92-86L0%0.0
3-1Siena (299.0)MAACA58-67W100%0.0
3-2Canisius (124.0)MAACN69-72W100%0.0
3-4Fairfield (180.0)MAACN74-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC26.4726.4737.5837.58-6.57-6.57
FairfieldMAAC5.415.4150.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC5.335.3327.5927.59-2.39-2.39
CanisiusMAAC5.315.3165.5265.521.651.65
MaristMAAC3.983.9820.6920.69-2.33-2.33
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.943.9440.0040.00-0.79-0.79
RiderMAAC3.913.9168.9768.971.481.48
NiagaraMAAC3.913.9156.6756.670.520.52
ManhattanMAAC3.843.8444.8344.83-0.40-0.40
IonaMAAC2.582.5859.3859.380.480.48
MonmouthMAAC2.462.4636.6736.67-0.66-0.66
DartmouthIvy1.751.7524.0024.00-0.91-0.91
VermontAE1.741.7478.1278.120.980.98
MaineAE1.711.7110.3410.34-1.36-1.36
BrownIvy1.681.6836.0036.00-0.47-0.47
HartfordAE1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
ColumbiaIvy1.661.6628.0028.00-0.73-0.73
DrexelCAA1.591.5935.4835.48-0.46-0.46
MassachusettsA101.591.5940.6240.62-0.30-0.30
LafayettePat1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
LibertyBSth1.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
Wake ForestACC1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
ColoradoP121.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
AlbanyAE0.390.3967.7467.740.140.14
New HampshireAE0.320.3227.5927.59-0.14-0.14
PennIvy0.290.2974.1974.190.140.14
HarvardIvy0.270.2756.6756.670.040.04
ArmyPat0.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.250.2540.7440.74-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.250.2537.9337.93-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
Stony BrookAE0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.2148.4848.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
UMBCAE0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Loyola MDPat0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
ElonCAA0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
BryantNEC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
HoustonAmer0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
La SalleA100.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
FordhamA100.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01