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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Quinnipiac

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:105.0
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:175
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:15-7
Expected Conf Record:15-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:107
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11105.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Quinnipiac.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Hartford (234.0)AEN82-77W100%0.0
11-12La Salle (98.0)A10A73-67L0%0.0
11-16Albany (185.0)AEH79-69W100%0.0
11-20Hampton (204.0)MEACH71-68W100%0.0
11-25Maine (330.0)AEA61-102W100%0.0
12-2Boston University (84.0)PatH66-69L0%0.0
12-6Fairfield (289.0)MAACH83-79W100%0.0
12-8Rider (198.0)MAACA90-78L0%0.0
12-15Vermont (101.0)AEA67-80W100%0.0
12-21Lehigh (236.0)PatA69-58L0%0.0
12-29Oregon St. (100.0)P12A76-68L0%0.0
1-4Monmouth (292.0)MAACA77-94W100%0.0
1-6Iona (59.0)MAACH86-74W100%0.0
1-9Manhattan (60.0)MAACH81-76W100%0.0
1-12Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA74-67L0%0.0
1-16Monmouth (292.0)MAACH70-61W100%0.0
1-18Niagara (302.0)MAACH85-71W100%0.0
1-24Iona (59.0)MAACA95-73L0%0.0
1-26Manhattan (60.0)MAACA86-90W100%0.0
1-30Canisius (96.0)MAACH74-86L0%0.0
2-1Siena (193.0)MAACA95-103W100%0.0
2-8Rider (198.0)MAACH82-61W100%0.0
2-10Marist (250.0)MAACH83-78W100%0.0
2-13Fairfield (289.0)MAACA72-80W100%0.0
2-16Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH74-64W100%0.0
2-20Canisius (96.0)MAACA81-88W100%0.0
2-22Niagara (302.0)MAACA88-90W100%0.0
2-27Siena (193.0)MAACH70-72L0%0.0
3-2Marist (250.0)MAACA103-72L0%0.0
3-8Niagara (302.0)MAACN89-80W100%0.0
3-9Manhattan (60.0)MAACN87-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Quinnipiac's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Quinnipiac's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Quinnipiac.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
QuinnipiacMAAC26.5026.5067.1367.139.089.08
ManhattanMAAC5.935.9382.7682.763.893.89
NiagaraMAAC5.865.8623.3323.33-3.12-3.12
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.444.4444.8344.83-0.46-0.46
IonaMAAC4.424.4270.0070.001.771.77
RiderMAAC4.394.3944.8344.83-0.45-0.45
SienaMAAC4.374.3746.6746.67-0.29-0.29
CanisiusMAAC4.344.3466.6766.671.451.45
FairfieldMAAC4.324.3223.3323.33-2.30-2.30
MaristMAAC4.314.3137.9337.93-1.04-1.04
MonmouthMAAC4.294.2936.6736.67-1.14-1.14
HartfordAE1.901.9053.1253.120.120.12
AlbanyAE1.901.9058.0658.060.310.31
VermontAE1.851.8568.9768.970.700.70
MaineAE1.771.7718.5218.52-1.11-1.11
La SalleA101.761.7646.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Boston UniversityPat1.721.7269.7069.700.680.68
LehighPat1.711.7141.9441.94-0.28-0.28
HamptonMEAC1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
Oregon St.P121.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.370.3768.7568.750.140.14
BinghamtonAE0.340.3423.3323.33-0.18-0.18
St. BonaventureA100.300.3053.1253.120.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.300.3059.3859.380.060.06
UMBCAE0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
PennIvy0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
New HampshireAE0.240.2417.2417.24-0.16-0.16
UMass LowellAE0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
FordhamA100.230.2332.2632.26-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.210.2172.7372.730.090.09
HofstraCAA0.200.2030.3030.30-0.08-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.200.2064.2964.290.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
George WashingtonA100.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
Seton HallBE0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
LafayettePat0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.100.103.703.70-0.09-0.09
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
BrownIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
NavyPat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01