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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:130.0
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:284
Current SOS:284
Current Record:20-9
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9130.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hampton (155.0)MEACH102-95W100%0.0
11-20Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH80-69W100%0.0
11-24USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA78-79W100%0.0
11-27North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA87-79L0%0.0
12-2Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA82-83W100%0.0
12-5Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH74-70W100%0.0
12-8Georgia (62.0)SECA74-64L0%0.0
12-16Alabama (73.0)SECA72-60L0%0.0
12-19Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA81-88W100%0.0
12-22Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH92-84W100%0.0
12-31Campbell (308.0)BSthH83-90L0%0.0
1-2Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthA82-63L0%0.0
1-6UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA85-84L0%0.0
1-14High Point (158.0)BSthH86-66W100%0.0
1-16Liberty (264.0)BSthH74-58W100%0.0
1-20Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthA58-71W100%0.0
1-24Longwood (323.0)BSthA68-82W100%0.0
1-27Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH97-72W100%0.0
1-30Radford (192.0)BSthH87-77W100%0.0
2-2Liberty (264.0)BSthA88-77L0%0.0
2-11Longwood (323.0)BSthH88-80W100%0.0
2-13Radford (192.0)BSthA84-86W100%0.0
2-18Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH79-67W100%0.0
2-20UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH81-80W100%0.0
2-25High Point (158.0)BSthA87-85L0%0.0
2-27Campbell (308.0)BSthA71-87W100%0.0
3-4Presbyterian (319.0)BSthN67-53W100%0.0
3-5Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthN82-69W100%0.0
3-6UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthN68-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.5826.5873.6073.6012.5512.55
UNC AshevilleBSth6.286.2864.2964.291.791.79
Gardner WebbBSth4.654.6550.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth4.644.6465.3865.381.431.43
PresbyterianBSth4.624.6230.7730.77-1.78-1.78
LongwoodBSth4.604.6025.0025.00-2.30-2.30
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.554.5558.3358.330.760.76
LibertyBSth4.554.5533.3333.33-1.52-1.52
RadfordBSth4.534.5351.8551.850.170.17
Charleston SouthernBSth4.534.5324.0024.00-2.36-2.36
CampbellBSth4.534.5332.0032.00-1.63-1.63
Alabama St.SWAC1.821.8242.8642.86-0.26-0.26
USC UpstateASun1.821.8225.9325.93-0.87-0.87
GeorgiaSEC1.811.8158.0658.060.290.29
North Carolina St.ACC1.791.7946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
AlabamaSEC1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
Jacksonville St.OVC1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
Georgia SouthernSB1.751.7542.8642.86-0.25-0.25
HamptonMEAC1.721.7268.9768.970.650.65
FurmanSC0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
AuburnSEC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.190.1944.1244.12-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
VMISC0.180.1822.2222.22-0.10-0.10
William & MaryCAA0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
ClemsonACC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
LSUSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Virginia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1374.1974.190.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
WoffordSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ElonCAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
DukeACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
NevadaMWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02