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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:70.0
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:241
Current Record:24-6
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-670.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Manhattan (263.0)MAACA81-94W100%0.0
11-18Florida St. (14.0)ACCA100-86L0%0.0
11-21Illinois (62.0)B10A80-84W100%0.0
11-27New Hampshire (127.0)AEH60-65L0%0.0
11-30Furman (96.0)SCH58-57W100%0.0
12-3Dayton (30.0)A10A83-67L0%0.0
12-17Hampton (283.0)MEACA79-86W100%0.0
12-20Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH86-84W100%0.0
12-22Saint Louis (238.0)A10A55-66W100%0.0
12-29Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthA68-84W100%0.0
12-31Radford (227.0)BSthH80-82L0%0.0
1-4High Point (236.0)BSthA74-80W100%0.0
1-7Longwood (343.0)BSthH83-65W100%0.0
1-11Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH75-52W100%0.0
1-14Campbell (246.0)BSthA63-72W100%0.0
1-19UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH76-73W100%0.0
1-21Liberty (172.0)BSthA48-61W100%0.0
1-26Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthA70-72W100%0.0
1-28High Point (236.0)BSthH80-83L0%0.0
2-1Radford (227.0)BSthA65-81W100%0.0
2-4Campbell (246.0)BSthH76-62W100%0.0
2-9UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA104-101L0%0.0
2-11Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH77-71W100%0.0
2-15Longwood (343.0)BSthA63-83W100%0.0
2-18Liberty (172.0)BSthH84-67W100%0.0
2-23Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH86-72W100%0.0
2-25Presbyterian (347.0)BSthA56-93W100%0.0
3-2Charleston Southern (295.0)BSthH92-78W100%0.0
3-3Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthH80-77W100%0.0
3-5Campbell (246.0)BSthH76-59W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.7026.7080.0080.0016.0216.02
CampbellBSth6.216.2150.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth6.156.1559.2659.261.141.14
Charleston SouthernBSth6.116.1136.0036.00-1.71-1.71
RadfordBSth4.594.5939.2939.29-0.98-0.98
UNC AshevilleBSth4.534.5371.4371.431.941.94
PresbyterianBSth4.524.5211.5411.54-3.48-3.48
LongwoodBSth4.504.5015.3815.38-3.12-3.12
LibertyBSth4.504.5059.2659.260.830.83
High PointBSth4.504.5042.3142.31-0.69-0.69
FurmanSC1.921.9265.5265.520.600.60
Florida St.ACC1.811.8175.0075.000.900.90
HamptonMEAC1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Georgia SouthernSB1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Saint LouisA101.721.7237.5037.50-0.43-0.43
DaytonA101.721.7275.8675.860.890.89
IllinoisB101.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
ManhattanMAAC1.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
New HampshireAE1.671.6757.1457.140.240.24
VMISC0.450.4514.2914.29-0.32-0.32
UNC GreensboroSC0.290.2970.9770.970.120.12
USC UpstateASun0.290.2946.4346.43-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.260.2656.2556.250.030.03
VCUA100.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
SamfordSC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.210.2136.0036.00-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.2044.8344.83-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
William & MaryCAA0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MercerSC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
NebraskaB100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
StetsonASun0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1484.3884.380.090.09
DuquesneA100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
VermontAE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02