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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:168.0
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:260
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13168.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH82-74W100%0.0
11-16VCU (13.0)A10A92-71L0%0.0
11-19East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA66-76W100%0.0
11-27James Madison (233.0)CAAH69-57W100%0.0
12-3Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA81-63L0%0.0
12-15Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH80-72W100%0.0
12-18North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA72-66L0%0.0
12-21Wofford (153.0)SCH56-62L0%0.0
12-29Hampton (204.0)MEACA101-95L0%0.0
1-1Dayton (43.0)A10A81-47L0%0.0
1-8Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA67-71W100%0.0
1-11Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH85-68W100%0.0
1-15Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH51-56L0%0.0
1-18Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA72-73W100%0.0
1-22UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthA81-66L0%0.0
1-25VMI (211.0)BSthH58-57W100%0.0
1-29Radford (240.0)BSthH64-76L0%0.0
2-1High Point (172.0)BSthA65-64L0%0.0
2-4Liberty (311.0)BSthA62-73W100%0.0
2-8Campbell (316.0)BSthH88-62W100%0.0
2-12Longwood (337.0)BSthA59-76W100%0.0
2-15Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthA84-64L0%0.0
2-19Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH75-65W100%0.0
2-22Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthA85-79L0%0.0
2-26UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH107-100W100%0.0
3-1Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH82-60W100%0.0
3-5Liberty (311.0)BSthN77-65W100%0.0
3-7High Point (172.0)BSthN60-62W100%0.0
3-8UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthN79-80W100%0.0
3-9Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA76-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.4826.4860.1660.165.385.38
Coastal CarolinaBSth5.855.8562.9662.961.521.52
UNC AshevilleBSth5.805.8050.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth4.244.2432.0032.00-1.53-1.53
Gardner WebbBSth4.234.2346.4346.43-0.30-0.30
PresbyterianBSth4.204.2014.2914.29-3.00-3.00
High PointBSth4.114.1150.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth4.064.0629.6329.63-1.65-1.65
RadfordBSth2.622.6258.6258.620.450.45
VMIBSth2.582.5857.6957.690.400.40
CampbellBSth2.542.5433.3333.33-0.85-0.85
LongwoodBSth2.482.4814.8114.81-1.74-1.74
WoffordSC1.901.9057.1457.140.270.27
USC UpstateASun1.831.8356.6756.670.240.24
Appalachian St.SC1.811.8120.0020.00-1.08-1.08
HamptonMEAC1.811.8158.6258.620.310.31
Virginia TechACC1.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.761.7683.3383.331.171.17
James MadisonCAA1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
VCUA101.751.7575.7675.760.900.90
East Tennessee St.ASun1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
DaytonA101.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
Western CarolinaSC0.460.4651.6151.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.320.3213.7913.79-0.23-0.23
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.290.2923.3323.33-0.15-0.15
FurmanSC0.280.2825.9325.93-0.14-0.14
DelawareCAA0.260.2673.5373.530.120.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.260.2661.2961.290.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.2525.0025.00-0.12-0.12
SamfordSC0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.190.1982.3582.350.120.12
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
HowardMEAC0.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
RichmondA100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
North FloridaASun0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
George WashingtonA100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
ElonSC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1193.1093.100.100.10
MinnesotaB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01