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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:97.9
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:251
Current Record:11-4
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:5-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-458.02.14%
22-569.211.20%
21-681.623.03%
20-796.227.31%
19-8111.521.23%
18-9127.210.57%
17-10144.43.68%
16-11160.90.70%
15-12177.90.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Manhattan (229.4)MAACA81-94W100%0.0
11-18Florida St. (15.1)ACCA100-86L0%0.0
11-21Illinois (75.6)B10A80-84W100%0.0
11-27New Hampshire (149.3)AEH60-65L0%0.0
11-30Furman (149.9)SCH58-57W100%0.0
12-3Dayton (31.5)A10A83-67L0%0.0
12-17Hampton (307.8)MEACA79-86W100%0.0
12-20Georgia Southern (100.4)SBH86-84W100%0.0
12-22Saint Louis (273.1)A10A55-66W100%0.0
12-29Charleston Southern (304.3)BSthA68-84W100%0.0
12-31Radford (213.6)BSthH80-82L0%0.0
1-4High Point (265.8)BSthA74-80W100%0.0
1-7Longwood (321.1)BSthH83-65W100%0.0
1-11Presbyterian (342.6)BSthH75-52W100%0.0
1-14Campbell (264.0)BSthA63-72W100%0.0
1-19UNC Asheville (87.0)BSthH0-059%2.5
1-21Liberty (200.9)BSthA0-062%3.3
1-26Gardner Webb (203.1)BSthA0-059%2.5
1-28High Point (265.8)BSthH0-087%12.5
2-1Radford (213.6)BSthA0-071%6.3
2-4Campbell (264.0)BSthH0-089%13.5
2-9UNC Asheville (87.0)BSthA0-037%-3.7
2-11Gardner Webb (203.1)BSthH0-078%8.7
2-15Longwood (321.1)BSthA0-089%13.7
2-18Liberty (200.9)BSthH0-080%9.6
2-23Charleston Southern (304.3)BSthH0-091%14.9
2-25Presbyterian (342.6)BSthA0-094%17.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.5826.5075.3175.5313.4613.53
Gardner WebbBSth0.774.8543.7552.19-0.100.21
UNC AshevilleBSth0.554.8264.7171.980.162.12
LibertyBSth0.664.8243.7551.54-0.080.15
RadfordBSth3.674.8233.3341.49-1.22-0.82
PresbyterianBSth3.884.8114.2915.80-2.77-3.29
Charleston SouthernBSth3.644.8115.3830.27-2.52-1.90
CampbellBSth3.674.7850.0048.400.00-0.15
High PointBSth3.564.7835.7142.73-1.02-0.70
LongwoodBSth3.674.7828.5727.24-1.57-2.18
FurmanSC3.442.1253.3356.800.230.29
Florida St.ACC3.641.9888.2477.362.791.09
Georgia SouthernSB3.441.9266.6762.221.150.47
HamptonMEAC3.331.9228.5741.76-1.43-0.32
Saint LouisA103.331.9231.2526.06-1.25-0.92
DaytonA103.331.9173.3375.181.560.96
IllinoisB103.431.8868.7556.231.280.23
ManhattanMAAC3.431.8841.1839.68-0.60-0.39
New HampshireAE3.331.8550.0055.500.000.20
VMISC0.550.4414.2915.94-0.39-0.30
UNC GreensboroSC0.220.3368.7563.230.080.09
USC UpstateASun0.340.2750.0047.440.00-0.01
VCUA100.100.2577.7873.920.050.12
GeorgiaSEC0.220.2362.5057.280.060.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.2037.5044.66-0.08-0.02
The CitadelSC0.330.2035.2930.57-0.10-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.110.2018.7520.57-0.07-0.12
SamfordSC0.410.1964.7159.940.120.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.350.1830.7736.76-0.13-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.220.1742.8647.10-0.03-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.320.1776.4762.000.170.04
MercerSC0.310.1635.2944.06-0.09-0.02
West VirginiaB120.410.1688.2484.630.310.11
George MasonA100.210.1664.7156.530.060.02
MaineAE0.110.1421.0521.86-0.06-0.08
StetsonASun0.220.1325.0027.36-0.11-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.000.1342.1140.71-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1388.2484.300.160.09
AlabamaSEC0.320.1362.5057.020.080.02
Kansas St.B120.210.1376.4759.430.110.02
ElonCAA0.100.1347.0649.68-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.1350.0043.370.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1364.7160.750.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1343.7543.63-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.390.1217.6524.27-0.26-0.06
DuquesneA100.200.1250.0042.110.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1238.8945.72-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1264.7161.890.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.220.1047.3741.51-0.01-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.220.1052.9453.520.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.220.1025.0031.95-0.11-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.220.1021.4323.21-0.13-0.06
HowardMEAC0.000.1012.5028.47-0.00-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.110.1060.0066.130.020.03
NavyPat0.220.1041.1843.68-0.04-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.220.1047.0643.82-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1028.5731.64-0.05-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.210.1062.5054.170.050.01
AkronMAC0.210.1081.2573.540.130.05
RichmondA100.110.1064.7158.460.030.02
IndianaB100.100.1066.6763.930.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.200.1084.2180.580.130.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1066.6753.190.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.200.1058.8252.990.030.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1075.0076.810.050.05
RiderMAAC0.200.1061.1154.400.050.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0961.1156.560.020.01
TempleAmer0.300.0952.6353.220.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.200.0964.7167.000.060.03
MichiganB100.200.0966.6758.160.070.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0978.9569.120.060.04
MinnesotaB100.200.0978.9570.150.110.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.0966.6750.950.070.00
FordhamA100.090.0935.2931.83-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0950.0047.550.00-0.00
La SalleA100.200.0966.6762.150.070.02
IonaMAAC0.090.0955.5660.550.010.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0722.2225.46-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0718.7535.75-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.110.0750.0058.110.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.0737.5038.15-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.0766.6766.780.040.02
ColgatePat0.110.0716.6723.35-0.07-0.04
CreightonBE0.110.0794.4484.740.100.05
DrexelCAA0.110.0735.2935.38-0.03-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0731.5829.37-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.110.0727.7830.30-0.05-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.0762.5060.110.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0756.2553.900.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0731.2541.99-0.04-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0735.7148.96-0.03-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.110.0750.0050.990.000.00
Texas TechB120.110.0776.4763.780.060.02
UMBCAE0.000.0762.5058.760.000.01
VermontAE0.110.0773.6877.320.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0712.5020.01-0.08-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0714.2929.37-0.07-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0753.8558.520.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0772.2271.210.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0049.650.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0711.1123.11-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0778.9576.690.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.070.0014.42-0.11-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0675.0074.760.050.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.0668.7573.520.080.03
Georgia St.SB0.100.0653.3355.860.010.01
KansasB120.000.0694.4481.600.000.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0662.5062.550.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0625.0028.48-0.05-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.0643.7541.36-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.100.0647.0648.10-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.100.0626.6739.99-0.05-0.01
DavidsonA100.100.0656.2555.710.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.0661.1159.210.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0657.8950.960.000.00
MarylandB100.200.0688.2471.840.150.03
Penn St.B100.000.0661.1150.470.000.00
BYUWCC0.200.0668.4268.160.070.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0663.1663.750.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0677.7873.720.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0653.3354.210.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0631.5829.26-0.03-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0675.0063.150.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0673.6873.940.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0626.3227.77-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0688.8977.800.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0638.8939.13-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0650.0051.540.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0412.5024.44-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.0417.6529.59-0.07-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0412.5033.74-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0460.0072.720.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0431.5839.33-0.04-0.01
AmericanPat0.110.0323.5329.81-0.06-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.110.0352.9457.140.010.00
BryantNEC0.110.0322.2235.43-0.06-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.0347.3748.91-0.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.110.0365.0055.360.030.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0364.7165.930.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0323.5328.53-0.06-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.0312.5021.96-0.08-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0356.2551.280.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.0355.5654.690.010.00
PortlandWCC0.100.0350.0042.270.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0388.2487.480.080.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0327.7829.47-0.05-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0353.3345.920.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.100.0358.8263.660.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0368.7570.370.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0360.0054.070.020.00
IUPUISum0.100.0335.2942.41-0.03-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0363.1657.750.000.00
MissouriSEC0.100.0331.2526.61-0.04-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0358.8257.870.020.00
PurdueB100.000.0377.7876.220.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0355.5643.070.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0327.7834.95-0.04-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0382.3581.030.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0034.750.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.090.0368.4271.170.030.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.0316.6718.41-0.07-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0343.7548.36-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0333.3333.23-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0382.3576.960.060.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0364.7147.180.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0344.4445.47-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0383.3377.690.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0335.7136.22-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0323.5324.37-0.05-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0355.5649.900.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0320.0019.52-0.06-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0312.5019.03-0.07-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0316.6721.63-0.06-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0357.8952.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0381.2576.190.060.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0377.7882.460.050.02