live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:210.0
Current RPI:210
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:317
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:315
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13210.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Clemson (106.0)ACCA74-77W100%0.0
11-20Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA59-58L0%0.0
11-24East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH64-69L0%0.0
12-1Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH68-47W100%0.0
12-3Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA79-76L0%0.0
12-6Maryland (13.0)B10A82-62L0%0.0
12-17Auburn (129.0)SECA80-62L0%0.0
12-19Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA81-71L0%0.0
12-31Longwood (316.0)BSthH82-72W100%0.0
1-3High Point (89.0)BSthH87-90L0%0.0
1-8Presbyterian (315.0)BSthA56-57W100%0.0
1-10Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthA65-64L0%0.0
1-14UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA69-84W100%0.0
1-17Radford (154.0)BSthH77-85L0%0.0
1-22Liberty (347.0)BSthA56-71W100%0.0
1-24Campbell (323.0)BSthH71-63W100%0.0
1-28Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA68-75W100%0.0
1-31Radford (154.0)BSthA73-66L0%0.0
2-2Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH77-55W100%0.0
2-4Liberty (347.0)BSthH74-61W100%0.0
2-11High Point (89.0)BSthA73-72L0%0.0
2-14Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthH71-68W100%0.0
2-18UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH91-70W100%0.0
2-21Longwood (316.0)BSthA59-83W100%0.0
2-26Campbell (323.0)BSthA65-50L0%0.0
2-28Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH80-53W100%0.0
3-6Radford (154.0)BSthN66-67W100%0.0
3-7Longwood (316.0)BSthN71-58W100%0.0
3-8Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthN81-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.6726.6758.9158.914.764.76
LongwoodBSth6.236.2331.0331.03-2.36-2.36
RadfordBSth6.126.1261.5461.541.411.41
Gardner WebbBSth4.674.6753.5753.570.330.33
UNC AshevilleBSth4.664.6646.1546.15-0.36-0.36
Coastal CarolinaBSth4.634.6370.3770.371.891.89
PresbyterianBSth4.544.5423.0823.08-2.44-2.44
High PointBSth4.524.5265.3865.381.391.39
LibertyBSth4.524.5215.3815.38-3.13-3.13
CampbellBSth4.474.4722.2222.22-2.48-2.48
Savannah St.MEAC3.483.4822.2222.22-1.93-1.93
Charleston SouthernBSth2.932.9361.5461.540.680.68
ClemsonACC1.871.8753.3353.330.120.12
Jacksonville St.OVC1.851.8532.1432.14-0.66-0.66
AuburnSEC1.811.8139.3939.39-0.38-0.38
East Tennessee St.SC1.791.7948.1548.15-0.07-0.07
MarylandB101.721.7281.2581.251.081.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
James MadisonCAA0.290.2959.3859.380.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.270.2726.6726.67-0.12-0.12
Virginia TechACC0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
LSUSEC0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1875.8675.860.090.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
WoffordSC0.160.1681.2581.250.100.10
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
HowardMEAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
CornellIvy0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01