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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:164.9
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:324
Current Record:13-7
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC RPI:145
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-7119.23.05%
18-8137.315.52%
17-9156.131.73%
16-10173.631.01%
15-11191.615.12%
14-12210.43.29%
13-13230.90.27%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hampton (201.5)MEACH102-95W100%0.0
11-20Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCH80-69W100%0.0
11-24USC Upstate (325.9)ASunA78-79W100%0.0
11-27North Carolina St. (117.2)ACCA87-79L0%0.0
12-2Charleston Southern (274.8)BSthA82-83W100%0.0
12-5Presbyterian (332.2)BSthH74-70W100%0.0
12-8Georgia (78.3)SECA74-64L0%0.0
12-16Alabama (82.0)SECA72-60L0%0.0
12-19Georgia Southern (250.4)SBA81-88W100%0.0
12-22Alabama St. (293.2)SWACH92-84W100%0.0
12-31Campbell (328.2)BSthH83-90L0%0.0
1-2Coastal Carolina (155.9)BSthA82-63L0%0.0
1-6UNC Asheville (135.3)BSthA85-84L0%0.0
1-14High Point (197.0)BSthH86-66W100%0.0
1-16Liberty (262.0)BSthH74-58W100%0.0
1-20Gardner Webb (208.7)BSthA58-71W100%0.0
1-24Longwood (318.8)BSthA68-82W100%0.0
1-27Charleston Southern (274.8)BSthH97-72W100%0.0
1-30Radford (170.7)BSthH87-77W100%0.0
2-2Liberty (262.0)BSthA88-77L0%0.0
2-11Longwood (318.8)BSthH0-087%12.2
2-13Radford (170.7)BSthA0-045%-1.4
2-18Coastal Carolina (155.9)BSthH0-058%2.2
2-20UNC Asheville (135.3)BSthH0-054%1.2
2-25High Point (197.0)BSthA0-033%-4.8
2-27Campbell (328.2)BSthA0-072%6.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.3926.4970.2467.3810.689.21
High PointBSth3.414.9157.8959.480.540.93
UNC AshevilleBSth3.384.8963.6465.650.921.53
RadfordBSth3.264.8952.3853.100.160.30
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.384.8857.8959.130.530.89
Charleston SouthernBSth5.744.8526.3228.78-2.72-2.06
LibertyBSth5.774.8533.3335.46-1.92-1.41
LongwoodBSth3.264.8523.8126.39-1.71-2.29
CampbellBSth3.314.8525.0026.80-1.66-2.25
PresbyterianBSth3.313.1126.3227.95-1.57-1.37
Gardner WebbBSth3.323.0847.6249.40-0.16-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC2.612.0331.5837.09-0.96-0.52
GeorgiaSEC2.562.0360.0055.140.510.21
North Carolina St.ACC2.562.0047.8347.39-0.11-0.10
USC UpstateASun2.631.9923.8124.14-1.38-1.03
Jacksonville St.OVC2.621.9926.0925.23-1.25-0.99
AlabamaSEC2.551.9957.1451.410.360.06
Georgia SouthernSB2.561.9642.1140.44-0.40-0.37
HamptonMEAC2.501.9260.0061.760.500.45
AuburnSEC0.240.2440.9136.61-0.04-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.2220.0026.74-0.11-0.10
FurmanSC0.280.2152.1753.310.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.280.2171.4369.840.120.08
The CitadelSC0.240.1833.3331.31-0.08-0.07
Appalachian St.SB0.230.1726.0929.20-0.11-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1778.2678.050.100.10
TennesseeSEC0.230.1747.8346.88-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.230.1786.3685.030.170.12
ClemsonACC0.240.1760.8760.240.050.03
Virginia TechACC0.220.1754.1749.270.02-0.00
LSUSEC0.230.1665.2260.270.070.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1563.6460.940.030.03
VMISC0.180.1515.7917.42-0.12-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1435.0035.98-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1413.6418.14-0.08-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1459.0959.440.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1476.1973.400.060.07
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1428.5731.36-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.1438.1040.73-0.01-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.180.1452.1755.930.010.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1443.4840.61-0.01-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.1454.1752.340.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.149.0917.09-0.10-0.09
VCUA100.170.1473.9173.900.080.07
Florida St.ACC0.220.1469.5764.890.090.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1352.0050.250.000.00
MississippiSEC0.180.1365.2259.020.050.02
Notre DameACC0.170.1369.5765.850.060.04
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1386.3679.150.130.08
MissouriSEC0.230.1334.7830.36-0.07-0.05
WoffordSC0.130.1140.9145.38-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1117.3920.66-0.07-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1172.7376.360.080.06
RichmondA100.120.1154.5554.490.010.01
StetsonASun0.120.1123.8127.69-0.06-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1028.5731.89-0.05-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1050.0049.860.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1042.8646.34-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.170.1072.2274.710.070.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1050.0053.300.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1021.7423.40-0.10-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1040.9149.27-0.02-0.00
UABCUSA0.170.1082.6179.420.110.06
ElonCAA0.120.1052.1750.420.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1038.8945.66-0.03-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1056.5260.000.010.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1057.8961.750.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1033.3334.19-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.060.1065.2266.090.020.03
KentuckySEC0.060.1073.9171.550.030.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.1040.9140.65-0.01-0.02
DukeACC0.170.1073.9170.040.080.04
HawaiiBW0.060.0884.2181.670.040.05
NevadaMWC0.060.0855.0054.530.010.01
AkronMAC0.120.0781.8280.030.080.04
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0734.7840.92-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.120.0740.0042.11-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.120.0750.0046.610.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0759.0953.120.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.120.0756.5257.000.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.079.5213.52-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0747.6252.07-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.110.0725.0029.27-0.06-0.03
NavyPat0.110.0762.5062.450.030.02
NJITASun0.060.0754.1755.250.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0729.1733.15-0.05-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0765.2267.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0736.8438.39-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0790.4886.880.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0720.8323.63-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0742.8639.19-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0763.6459.240.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0766.6765.210.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0731.5831.79-0.02-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0734.7834.15-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0757.8956.100.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0715.7920.03-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0747.6252.67-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0770.8369.500.020.03
LamarSlnd0.110.0731.5831.96-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0743.4842.62-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0734.7834.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0771.4369.420.020.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.0716.6720.13-0.08-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0747.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0750.0046.740.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0764.0064.120.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0765.0066.790.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.0737.5043.37-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0745.4554.11-0.010.01
Texas St.SB0.130.0738.8938.51-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.060.0723.8126.67-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.110.0733.3332.34-0.04-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0724.0026.41-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.0766.6770.540.040.03
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0733.3335.48-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.074.357.73-0.10-0.06
BelmontOVC0.050.0766.6766.540.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0750.0052.350.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.110.0745.4549.70-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0766.6762.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0768.1866.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.0652.1751.590.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.690.030.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0462.5056.260.020.00
AmericanPat0.060.0430.4331.89-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0452.1753.380.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0431.8236.14-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0469.5765.330.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0452.3850.410.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0415.0022.36-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0443.4842.01-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0421.0523.58-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0478.2674.420.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0482.6181.140.040.02
IowaB100.060.0482.6180.580.040.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0430.4335.11-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0414.2917.92-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0425.0033.21-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0410.0013.13-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0490.9186.130.050.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0415.0027.26-0.04-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0428.5732.71-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0375.0076.240.030.02
MercerSC0.060.0372.7370.750.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0372.7366.500.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0360.8758.470.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0368.0067.970.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0328.0030.73-0.03-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0373.9169.830.030.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.15-0.000.00
DaytonA100.060.0386.3682.380.040.02
OregonP120.060.0382.6179.210.040.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5831.98-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0391.3084.380.050.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.660.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.50-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.140.000.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0381.8276.740.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0345.8346.66-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.66-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.560.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0382.6178.050.000.02