Winthrop

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	269.0
Current RPI:	282
Expected SOS:	259
Current SOS:	307
Current Record:	8-15
Expected Record:	10-18
Current Conf Record:	7-7
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.43%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-6
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	272
Expected OOC SOS:	136

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	216.5	0.24%
12-16	231.8	3.53%
11-17	249.2	16.23%
10-18	265.8	35.13%
9-19	279.3	33.65%
8-20	289.6	11.21%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	H	59-71	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Virginia (39.5)	ACC	A	69-48	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Marquette (15.5)	BE	N	95-73	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Drake (135.2)	MVC	N	62-66	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	N	45-68	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	56-59	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	A	62-60	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	A	45-59	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	A	60-40	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	A	60-55	L	0%	0.0
12-27	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	A	92-86	L	0%	0.0
12-31	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	H	68-73	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Radford (335.2)	BSth	H	70-54	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	H	91-84	W	100%	0.0
1-12	High Point (283.4)	BSth	A	64-54	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	A	61-64	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	H	51-54	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	H	56-54	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	A	77-66	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	H	65-63	W	100%	0.0
1-28	High Point (283.4)	BSth	H	47-52	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	63-77	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	A	86-79	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	A	0-0		24%	-7.7
2-11	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	0-0		35%	-4.3
2-14	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	H	0-0		60%	2.7
2-18	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	A	0-0		36%	-4.0
2-25	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	A	0-0		15%	-11.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Winthrop	BSth	26.62	26.40	37.38	37.19	-6.72	-6.76
Campbell	BSth	3.07	4.52	54.17	53.34	0.26	0.30
Radford	BSth	5.15	4.52	9.52	14.07	-4.17	-3.24
Gardner Webb	BSth	5.09	4.51	33.33	37.94	-1.70	-1.09
Liberty	BSth	5.13	4.51	30.00	29.30	-2.05	-1.87
Presbyterian	BSth	2.96	4.51	42.86	45.47	-0.42	-0.41
NC Asheville	BSth	3.17	4.50	66.67	65.63	1.06	1.41
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	5.08	4.47	44.44	43.67	-0.56	-0.57
High Point	BSth	5.13	4.47	25.00	27.37	-2.57	-2.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.94	2.84	72.22	72.26	0.42	1.27
Charleston Southern	BSth	2.90	2.81	52.63	58.74	0.15	0.49
Clemson	ACC	2.32	1.94	47.62	46.58	-0.11	-0.13
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.32	1.91	47.83	50.01	-0.10	0.00
Virginia	ACC	2.32	1.91	80.95	76.00	1.43	0.99
Appalachian St.	SC	0.04	1.85	35.00	38.33	-0.01	-0.43
Marquette	BE	2.22	1.82	78.26	75.18	1.26	0.91
Drake	MVC	2.22	1.82	50.00	48.31	0.00	-0.06
Drexel	CAA	2.22	1.82	78.26	77.35	1.26	0.99
Jacksonville	ASun	2.22	1.81	18.18	22.78	-1.41	-0.99
Georgia	SEC	2.17	1.79	42.86	39.17	-0.31	-0.39
Western Michigan	MAC	2.17	1.79	38.10	40.99	-0.52	-0.32
William & Mary	CAA	0.29	0.29	12.50	13.44	-0.22	-0.21
The Citadel	SC	0.31	0.27	9.52	11.44	-0.25	-0.21
Wofford	SC	0.20	0.23	59.09	57.93	0.04	0.04
Furman	SC	0.20	0.22	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.24	0.22	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.19	0.21	69.57	65.47	0.08	0.07
College of Charleston	SC	0.15	0.20	58.33	59.98	0.03	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.20	60.87	59.76	0.03	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.20	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.14	0.19	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.19	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.13
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.19	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.20	0.18	72.73	71.71	0.09	0.08
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.18	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.16	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.20	0.15	86.36	83.09	0.14	0.10
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.15	39.13	36.10	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.15	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.24	0.15	10.00	14.93	-0.19	-0.11
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.19	0.15	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.16	0.13	31.82	31.31	-0.06	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.20	0.13	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.20	0.13	30.00	27.84	-0.08	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.13	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.13	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.13	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.12	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.19	0.12	66.67	69.69	0.06	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.19	0.12	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.12	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.14	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.10	0.09
Delaware	CAA	0.19	0.12	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.19	0.12	76.00	72.50	0.10	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.12	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.10
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.12	34.78	32.06	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.12	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.12	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.04	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.12	68.18	69.68	0.07	0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.10	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.10	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.10	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.10	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.10	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.10	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.09	34.78	38.42	-0.01	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.09	73.91	74.91	0.07	0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.09	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.09	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.09	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.09	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.14	0.09	4.00	5.26	-0.13	-0.08
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.07	13.64	16.35	-0.08	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.07	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.07	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.00	0.07	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.07	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.00	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.07	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.04	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.06	70.83	71.05	0.04	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.02	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.04	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.04	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.04	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.01	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.04	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.00	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.00	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.00	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01