Winthrop

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	173.0
Current RPI:	173
Expected SOS:	262
Current SOS:	262
Current Record:	16-12
Expected Record:	16-12
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-5
Current OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC RPI:	181
Expected OOC SOS:	172

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	173.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	66-81	L	0%
11-14	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	80-76	L	0%
11-24	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	A	119-85	L	0%
11-26	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	86-61	W	100%
11-29	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	74-93	W	100%
12-5	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	87-82	L	0%
12-16	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	80-88	W	100%
12-19	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	69-55	L	0%
12-30	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	76-60	W	100%
1-3	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	85-79	L	0%
1-6	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	88-77	L	0%
1-9	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	70-73	L	0%
1-12	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	53-64	W	100%
1-15	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	90-67	W	100%
1-18	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	85-58	W	100%
1-21	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	68-81	W	100%
1-24	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	78-95	W	100%
1-27	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	75-64	W	100%
2-1	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	77-61	L	0%
2-3	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	75-57	W	100%
2-7	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	63-49	W	100%
2-10	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	70-82	W	100%
2-15	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	71-90	W	100%
2-18	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	79-64	W	100%
2-22	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	89-75	L	0%
2-24	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	75-78	L	0%
3-1	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	N	72-68	W	100%
3-2	Radford (128.0)	BSth	N	61-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Winthrop	BSth	26.61	26.61	60.94	60.94	5.82	5.82
Radford	BSth	6.52	6.52	62.07	62.07	1.57	1.57
Gardner Webb	BSth	6.41	6.41	42.31	42.31	-0.99	-0.99
Liberty	BSth	4.90	4.90	51.72	51.72	0.17	0.17
UNC Asheville	BSth	4.82	4.82	62.07	62.07	1.16	1.16
Longwood	BSth	4.81	4.81	14.29	14.29	-3.44	-3.44
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.80	4.80	42.31	42.31	-0.74	-0.74
Presbyterian	BSth	4.75	4.75	29.63	29.63	-1.94	-1.94
Campbell	BSth	4.71	4.71	46.15	46.15	-0.36	-0.36
High Point	BSth	4.71	4.71	44.00	44.00	-0.57	-0.57
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.94	1.94	27.59	27.59	-0.87	-0.87
Auburn	SEC	1.93	1.93	77.42	77.42	1.06	1.06
Furman	SC	1.87	1.87	70.00	70.00	0.75	0.75
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.84	1.84	26.67	26.67	-0.86	-0.86
Georgia	SEC	1.84	1.84	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Colorado St.	MWC	1.79	1.79	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.79	1.79	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
VCU	A10	1.79	1.79	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
VMI	SC	0.35	0.35	25.00	25.00	-0.18	-0.18
USC Upstate	ASun	0.30	0.30	10.71	10.71	-0.24	-0.24
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.29	0.29	77.42	77.42	0.16	0.16
Tennessee	SEC	0.24	0.24	75.76	75.76	0.12	0.12
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Wofford	SC	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	CUSA	0.13	0.13	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02