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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:162.3
Current RPI:173
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:216
Current Record:8-8
Expected Record:15-11
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-8114.03.88%
17-9132.116.80%
16-10151.729.61%
15-11171.427.88%
14-12190.415.49%
13-13209.05.11%
12-14226.51.10%
11-15241.10.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCH66-81L0%0.0
11-14Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA80-76L0%0.0
11-24Auburn (17.9)SECA119-85L0%0.0
11-26South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACH86-61W100%0.0
11-29Furman (87.9)SCA74-93W100%0.0
12-5Georgia (68.0)SECA87-82L0%0.0
12-16Alabama St. (341.4)SWACA80-88W100%0.0
12-19VCU (127.7)A10A69-55L0%0.0
12-30High Point (224.9)BSthH76-60W100%0.0
1-3Radford (143.9)BSthA85-79L0%0.0
1-6Campbell (266.4)BSthA88-77L0%0.0
1-9Liberty (235.9)BSthH70-73L0%0.0
1-12Charleston Southern (305.1)BSthA53-64W100%0.0
1-15Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthH90-67W100%0.0
1-18UNC Asheville (142.1)BSthH85-58W100%0.0
1-21Presbyterian (326.5)BSthA68-81W100%0.0
1-24Longwood (334.5)BSthA0-091%14.6
1-27Campbell (266.4)BSthH0-081%9.7
2-1Liberty (235.9)BSthA0-053%0.7
2-3Radford (143.9)BSthH0-073%6.9
2-7Presbyterian (326.5)BSthH0-095%18.3
2-10High Point (224.9)BSthA0-054%1.2
2-15Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthA0-067%5.0
2-18Longwood (334.5)BSthH0-097%21.0
2-22UNC Asheville (142.1)BSthA0-046%-1.1
2-24Charleston Southern (305.1)BSthH0-089%13.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth26.3826.5155.5663.912.937.38
UNC AshevilleBSth3.755.0055.5660.930.421.09
PresbyterianBSth3.744.9929.4128.99-1.54-2.10
LibertyBSth3.754.9947.0652.69-0.220.27
Gardner WebbBSth3.754.9941.1842.67-0.66-0.73
Charleston SouthernBSth3.744.9826.6733.61-1.75-1.63
RadfordBSth3.664.9755.5658.510.410.85
LongwoodBSth0.714.9616.6716.93-0.47-3.28
CampbellBSth3.664.9643.7546.44-0.46-0.35
High PointBSth3.664.9546.6751.42-0.240.14
South Carolina St.MEAC3.402.1029.4132.85-1.40-0.72
AuburnSEC3.302.0688.8976.242.571.08
FurmanSC3.292.0270.5970.991.360.85
Alabama St.SWAC3.211.9917.6525.09-2.08-0.99
GeorgiaSEC3.211.9964.7154.420.940.18
Colorado St.MWC3.121.9242.1139.30-0.49-0.41
Southern IllinoisMVC3.121.9252.6350.840.160.03
VCUA103.121.9257.8958.350.490.32
VMISC0.430.3725.0024.15-0.22-0.19
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.3468.7567.600.100.12
USC UpstateASun0.450.3111.1118.00-0.35-0.20
TennesseeSEC0.350.2772.2268.930.160.10
The CitadelSC0.280.2118.7518.36-0.17-0.13
Western CarolinaSC0.180.2138.8935.37-0.04-0.06
WoffordSC0.270.2168.7563.690.100.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.2055.5656.740.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.160.2036.8435.57-0.04-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.270.1865.0056.340.080.02
FloridaSEC0.090.1673.6871.560.040.07
NevadaMWC0.160.1685.7182.090.110.10
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1423.5325.64-0.10-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1447.3746.09-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1442.1132.47-0.03-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.1320.0041.73-0.05-0.02
MercerSC0.170.1344.4454.86-0.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.170.1368.4257.740.060.02
Saint LouisA100.170.1347.3746.92-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1361.1151.910.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.160.1368.4264.200.060.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1166.6765.640.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.180.1173.6869.640.080.04
DavidsonA100.100.1058.8261.450.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1022.2227.33-0.10-0.05
HowardMEAC0.170.1010.5327.29-0.14-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1033.3333.77-0.06-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1015.7920.91-0.12-0.06
UCFAmer0.170.1068.4260.860.060.02
CornellIvy0.080.1033.3333.23-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.170.1052.6351.080.010.00
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1022.2228.59-0.10-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1090.4888.960.140.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.1027.7834.50-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1018.7536.82-0.11-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.1083.3381.430.050.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1038.8943.43-0.04-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.1070.0068.300.030.04
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1058.8262.820.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.160.1011.7612.81-0.12-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1036.8444.11-0.04-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.1044.4446.02-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.090.1061.1153.170.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1072.2258.920.080.02
AlabamaSEC0.170.0968.4258.980.060.02
MississippiSEC0.170.0952.6345.860.01-0.01
DaytonA100.160.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
George MasonA100.080.0945.0041.30-0.01-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0731.5832.72-0.04-0.03
PittsburghACC0.100.0740.0030.87-0.02-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.0764.7159.990.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0752.9452.650.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0758.8249.760.02-0.00
Penn St.B100.090.0761.9055.760.020.01
StetsonASun0.090.0733.3336.93-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0778.9576.130.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.070.003.07-0.09-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0720.0032.250.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0747.3743.020.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0738.8944.08-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0752.6351.690.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0766.6765.520.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0770.0071.230.000.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0778.9572.990.050.03
IllinoisB100.000.0747.3744.270.00-0.01
MarylandB100.090.0770.0065.250.030.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0777.7870.480.050.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0750.0051.380.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0735.0031.83-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0752.9459.250.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0780.0078.850.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0742.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0768.4269.250.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0744.4446.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0784.2173.240.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.079.5217.900.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0777.7879.150.050.04
James MadisonCAA0.080.0725.0028.24-0.04-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0727.7841.03-0.04-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0780.9576.520.050.04
SamfordSC0.090.0727.7832.66-0.04-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0750.0048.730.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0758.8262.440.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.080.0637.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0610.5316.75-0.07-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0630.0036.50-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.990.050.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.880.020.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0652.6347.520.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0666.6763.420.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0678.9574.190.050.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.060.0010.67-0.09-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.0645.0048.560.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.160.0644.4450.08-0.020.00
OregonP120.160.0665.0063.850.050.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0627.7840.97-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0621.0544.260.00-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0661.1156.830.020.01
DuquesneA100.160.0670.0058.090.060.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.6867.970.040.02
MarquetteBE0.160.0668.4260.550.060.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0666.6763.200.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.160.0670.5975.950.070.03
TempleAmer0.170.0652.6351.740.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0668.4263.960.000.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0631.5834.36-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0350.0052.460.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0365.0054.670.030.00
ButlerBE0.090.0366.6763.070.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.030.009.09-0.09-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0389.4785.210.070.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.630.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.630.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0333.3340.08-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.0363.1663.220.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0357.8953.190.010.00
UCLAP120.090.0365.0062.050.030.01
WisconsinB100.090.0350.0046.300.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.090.0341.1847.56-0.02-0.00
BryantNEC0.090.039.5217.12-0.07-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0356.2556.830.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0389.4785.550.070.02
ColoradoP120.080.0360.0053.720.020.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
IowaB100.090.0347.6244.02-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0370.0068.220.030.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0373.6862.720.000.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.890.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0340.0043.35-0.02-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0352.6355.290.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0378.9569.790.050.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0383.3384.240.050.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0316.6724.45-0.05-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0372.2272.980.040.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0342.1143.51-0.01-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0335.2940.48-0.03-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.037.6923.28-0.07-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.890.020.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0373.6865.260.040.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0333.3337.23-0.03-0.01
BucknellPat0.080.0361.9068.020.020.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0357.8959.490.010.01
La SalleA100.080.0340.0042.69-0.02-0.00
MichiganB100.080.0376.1970.740.040.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0372.2274.710.040.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0378.9576.750.050.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0051.640.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0375.0067.890.040.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.730.000.01
TexasB120.080.0363.1657.630.020.00
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.130.020.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0394.7486.140.070.02