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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Winthrop

Conference:BSth
Expected RPI:263.8
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:285
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-8131.80.08%
17-9150.00.30%
16-10167.11.16%
15-11189.33.88%
14-12211.99.34%
13-13234.215.09%
12-14257.119.68%
11-15277.720.11%
10-16295.015.88%
9-17309.28.88%
8-18319.93.98%
7-19328.81.29%
6-20337.50.26%
5-21341.60.05%
3-23348.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Clemson (165.7)ACCA74-77W100%0.0
11-20Savannah St. (319.3)MEACA59-58L0%0.0
11-24East Tennessee St. (130.5)SCH64-69L0%0.0
12-1Savannah St. (319.3)MEACH68-47W100%0.0
12-3Jacksonville St. (270.0)OVCA79-76L0%0.0
12-6Maryland (48.8)B10A82-62L0%0.0
12-17Auburn (171.1)SECA80-62L0%0.0
12-19Southeastern Louisiana (228.8)SlndA81-71L0%0.0
12-31Longwood (319.5)BSthH0-083%11.3
1-3High Point (132.3)BSthH0-054%1.1
1-8Presbyterian (341.5)BSthA0-080%10.0
1-10Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthA0-027%-7.0
1-14UNC Asheville (226.2)BSthA0-030%-6.0
1-17Radford (177.6)BSthH0-056%1.8
1-22Liberty (318.4)BSthA0-048%-0.7
1-24Campbell (226.0)BSthH0-063%3.9
1-28Coastal Carolina (130.7)BSthA0-016%-11.8
1-31Radford (177.6)BSthA0-029%-6.6
2-2Charleston Southern (204.0)BSthH0-061%3.3
2-4Liberty (318.4)BSthH0-074%7.7
2-11High Point (132.3)BSthA0-027%-7.3
2-14Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthH0-055%1.4
2-18UNC Asheville (226.2)BSthH0-058%2.4
2-21Longwood (319.5)BSthA0-060%2.9
2-26Campbell (226.0)BSthA0-035%-4.5
2-28Presbyterian (341.5)BSthH0-094%18.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WinthropBSth28.1226.5331.2546.92-10.54-1.63
UNC AshevilleBSth0.764.9314.2943.50-0.54-0.64
RadfordBSth0.004.8855.5658.730.000.85
High PointBSth0.314.8766.6761.950.101.16
Gardner WebbBSth0.314.8737.5049.62-0.08-0.04
CampbellBSth0.004.8525.0043.40-0.00-0.64
LongwoodBSth0.004.8520.0025.66-0.00-2.36
LibertyBSth0.004.8325.0035.11-0.00-1.44
PresbyterianBSth0.004.830.008.27-0.00-4.03
Savannah St.MEAC12.813.8811.1125.58-9.97-1.89
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.313.0957.1469.970.041.23
Charleston SouthernBSth0.003.0542.8649.94-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC6.562.1066.6745.412.19-0.19
Jacksonville St.OVC6.822.0744.4435.34-0.76-0.61
East Tennessee St.SC6.252.0066.6762.382.080.49
AuburnSEC6.561.9944.4437.71-0.73-0.49
MarylandB106.251.9290.0067.175.000.66
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd6.251.9211.1143.87-4.86-0.24
UNC GreensboroSC0.450.2820.0035.33-0.27-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.000.2763.6455.660.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.2460.0038.030.00-0.06
LSUSEC0.310.2480.0063.910.190.07
FurmanSC0.000.2122.2231.81-0.00-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.2127.2735.36-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.2133.3330.28-0.00-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.210.0023.69-0.00-0.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.280.2050.0071.260.000.09
Western CarolinaSC0.450.1820.0040.93-0.27-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1877.7875.550.000.09
Morehead St.OVC0.450.1716.6737.21-0.30-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1781.8282.250.000.11
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1766.6764.770.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.010.1750.0068.770.000.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.310.170.0011.94-0.31-0.13
Tennessee TechOVC0.620.1744.4449.14-0.07-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1445.4545.10-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1416.6735.27-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.1460.0057.700.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1457.1455.330.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.140.0017.69-0.00-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.310.1466.6766.010.100.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1430.0028.65-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1436.3646.72-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1430.0043.74-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.880.13100.0084.930.880.09
IndianaB100.570.1381.8263.330.360.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1140.0049.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1170.0052.600.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1145.4537.60-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1010.0018.05-0.00-0.07
DukeACC0.000.10100.0087.090.000.08
PurdueB100.000.1066.6759.370.000.02
VMISC0.280.1033.3338.93-0.09-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.880.1033.3349.35-0.29-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.880.1022.2236.53-0.49-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1012.5026.89-0.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1054.5541.980.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0061.480.000.02
Miami FLACC0.570.1081.8266.010.360.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1033.3334.30-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.880.1088.8955.860.680.01
DartmouthIvy0.310.1050.0046.690.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.1066.6759.420.000.02
RutgersB100.310.0954.5532.590.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0754.5564.070.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0733.3337.91-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0730.0036.69-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0763.6463.240.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.07100.0082.630.000.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0718.1837.71-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0716.6733.39-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.070.008.56-0.00-0.06
HawaiiBW0.000.0766.6754.470.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0772.7367.520.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0744.4444.02-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0750.0057.820.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0790.0082.310.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.0733.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0790.0067.380.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0730.0043.15-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0714.2932.16-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0757.1457.100.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0718.1830.76-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0720.0042.59-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0014.00-0.00-0.05
CornellIvy0.000.0755.5648.710.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0788.8977.320.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0770.0059.220.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0745.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.570.0763.6440.190.15-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0738.4644.61-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0754.5559.560.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0755.5660.980.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3349.54-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0067.700.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0755.5646.290.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0725.0037.03-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0763.6464.880.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0775.0066.220.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6765.500.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.070.0015.00-0.00-0.05
UMBCAE0.000.0718.1825.30-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0745.4543.23-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.0740.0046.19-0.06-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0614.2915.15-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.130.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.310.0680.0072.200.190.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.050.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0680.0053.260.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0620.0044.37-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0032.26-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.47-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.97-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0616.6740.27-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6777.120.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.320.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.310.0688.8963.020.240.02
VirginiaACC0.280.06100.0086.080.280.05
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0691.6755.310.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.04100.0078.210.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0433.3346.17-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0466.6754.480.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0460.0057.890.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0481.8273.180.280.02
VCUA100.000.0472.7375.740.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0055.890.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.030.0028.43-0.31-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.310.0333.3362.72-0.100.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2229.80-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0340.0043.04-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0360.0062.070.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0360.0065.120.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.0337.5056.46-0.080.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.310.0366.6758.000.100.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0363.6465.220.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.310.0390.9190.540.260.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0316.6736.63-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0380.0076.450.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.290.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2935.86-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.310.0337.5049.31-0.08-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0330.0031.48-0.12-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.310.0311.1125.48-0.24-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.02
OklahomaB120.310.0370.0062.710.120.01
Oregon St.P120.310.0377.7856.220.170.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0051.780.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0355.5673.740.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.32-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6778.020.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0058.120.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.310.0390.0055.360.250.00
TulsaAmer0.310.0360.0056.620.060.00
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.900.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.310.0360.0071.280.060.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6758.210.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.310.0337.5031.88-0.08-0.01
XavierBE0.310.0372.7367.590.140.01
Arizona St.P120.280.0354.5548.490.03-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.0320.0027.29-0.17-0.01
FordhamA100.280.0328.5727.11-0.12-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0375.0065.140.000.01
Iowa St.B120.280.0390.0065.480.230.01
MichiganB100.000.0350.0040.450.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.280.0350.0058.370.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6442.810.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.280.0363.6467.210.080.01
WagnerNEC0.280.0312.5030.56-0.21-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.840.000.02