Winthrop

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	269.0
Current RPI:	269
Expected SOS:	263
Current SOS:	263
Current Record:	11-17
Expected Record:	11-17
Current Conf Record:	7-11
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	145
Expected OOC SOS:	62

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-17	269.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Winthrop.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	66-55	L	0%
11-17	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	H	54-90	L	0%
11-28	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	70-55	L	0%
12-1	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	71-61	L	0%
12-15	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	49-50	W	100%
12-18	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	65-55	L	0%
12-22	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	A	67-74	W	100%
12-30	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	50-43	W	100%
1-2	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	57-64	L	0%
1-5	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	61-74	L	0%
1-9	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	75-63	L	0%
1-12	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	A	72-54	L	0%
1-16	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	H	62-51	W	100%
1-19	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	63-59	L	0%
1-23	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	61-55	W	100%
1-26	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	58-57	L	0%
1-30	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	61-48	W	100%
2-2	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	66-56	W	100%
2-6	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	69-56	L	0%
2-9	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	56-62	L	0%
2-13	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	70-65	W	100%
2-16	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	A	64-57	L	0%
2-19	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	65-52	L	0%
2-23	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	66-52	W	100%
2-27	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	73-54	L	0%
3-2	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	70-61	W	100%
3-5	Radford (316.0)	BSth	N	58-60	W	100%
3-7	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	N	54-47	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Winthrop's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Winthrop's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Winthrop.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Winthrop	BSth	26.35	26.35	38.39	38.39	-6.12	-6.12
Charleston Southern	BSth	6.13	6.13	56.00	56.00	0.74	0.74
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.44	4.44	60.71	60.71	0.95	0.95
NC Asheville	BSth	4.41	4.41	44.44	44.44	-0.49	-0.49
Presbyterian	BSth	4.38	4.38	14.81	14.81	-3.08	-3.08
Coastal Carolina	BSth	4.37	4.37	41.67	41.67	-0.73	-0.73
Radford	BSth	4.25	4.25	33.33	33.33	-1.42	-1.42
Liberty	BSth	2.76	2.76	38.71	38.71	-0.62	-0.62
Longwood	BSth	2.62	2.62	16.67	16.67	-1.75	-1.75
Campbell	BSth	2.62	2.62	34.48	34.48	-0.81	-0.81
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.62	2.62	37.04	37.04	-0.68	-0.68
High Point	BSth	2.55	2.55	51.85	51.85	0.09	0.09
Hampton	MEAC	1.96	1.96	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Wofford	SC	1.90	1.90	36.67	36.67	-0.51	-0.51
Ohio St.	B10	1.85	1.85	78.12	78.12	1.04	1.04
Ohio	MAC	1.84	1.84	75.00	75.00	0.92	0.92
Indiana St.	MVC	1.82	1.82	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
James Madison	CAA	1.81	1.81	57.58	57.58	0.27	0.27
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.81	1.81	66.67	66.67	0.60	0.60
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.81	1.81	75.76	75.76	0.93	0.93
Auburn	SEC	1.79	1.79	29.03	29.03	-0.75	-0.75
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.79	1.79	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
The Citadel	SC	0.37	0.37	21.43	21.43	-0.21	-0.21
College of Charleston	SC	0.31	0.31	72.73	72.73	0.14	0.14
Charlotte	A10	0.25	0.25	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.24	0.24	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
William & Mary	CAA	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Akron	MAC	0.21	0.21	80.65	80.65	0.13	0.13
Wichita St.	MVC	0.21	0.21	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.19	0.19	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.18	0.18	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.18	0.18	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Creighton	MVC	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.16	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Appalachian St.	SC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	7.14	7.14	-0.08	-0.08
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00