Monmouth

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	275.8
Current RPI:	265
Expected SOS:	202
Current SOS:	176
Current Record:	7-18
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	5-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.03%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-6
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	286
Expected OOC SOS:	148

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	232.8	0.57%
11-20	249.1	6.07%
10-21	264.3	22.52%
9-22	276.4	37.18%
8-23	286.8	26.29%
7-24	294.6	7.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Villanova (98.5)	BE	A	106-70	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Virginia Tech (93.2)	ACC	A	91-46	L	0%	0.0
11-15	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	N	71-39	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Albany (208.3)	AE	N	85-49	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	N	79-71	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Vanderbilt (31.5)	SEC	A	95-73	L	0%	0.0
12-1	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	A	71-49	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	69-51	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	67-69	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Fordham (243.2)	A10	H	80-65	W	100%	0.0
12-12	Rutgers (141.7)	BE	A	81-66	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	62-74	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	A	69-54	L	0%	0.0
1-1	North Carolina (4.6)	ACC	A	102-65	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	73-59	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	H	79-89	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	61-70	L	0%	0.0
1-12	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	81-64	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	A	106-86	L	0%	0.0
1-19	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	68-50	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	73-81	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	56-58	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	68-78	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	H	63-56	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	48-71	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	0-0		45%	-1.4
2-11	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	0-0		69%	5.3
2-16	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	0-0		30%	-5.6
2-18	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	A	0-0		2%	-22.8
2-23	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	0-0		30%	-5.7
2-25	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	0-0		20%	-9.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Monmouth	NEC	26.25	26.23	29.20	29.69	-10.92	-10.65
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.76	4.05	8.70	9.83	-0.63	-3.25
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.64	4.02	54.55	53.80	0.24	0.31
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.60	4.00	27.27	28.14	-1.18	-1.75
Long Island	NEC	2.55	3.97	69.57	69.71	1.00	1.57
Wagner	NEC	2.55	3.97	81.82	83.49	1.62	2.66
Robert Morris	NEC	4.38	3.91	65.22	67.96	1.33	1.41
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.39	3.91	19.05	20.74	-2.72	-2.29
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.65	2.46	45.83	47.41	-0.22	-0.13
Bryant	NEC	2.56	2.41	8.70	11.23	-2.12	-1.87
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.55	2.41	54.55	55.62	0.23	0.27
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.55	2.40	47.62	47.39	-0.12	-0.13
Lafayette	Pat	2.39	2.00	40.91	40.91	-0.44	-0.36
Albany	AE	2.22	1.89	58.33	59.10	0.37	0.34
Brown	Ivy	2.30	1.86	23.81	21.17	-1.20	-1.07
Navy	Pat	2.21	1.78	10.00	13.69	-1.77	-1.29
Harvard	Ivy	2.09	1.69	90.00	87.47	1.67	1.27
Rider	MAAC	2.08	1.69	34.78	36.47	-0.63	-0.46
George Mason	CAA	2.09	1.67	75.00	71.59	1.04	0.72
Rutgers	BE	2.04	1.67	47.83	45.04	-0.09	-0.17
Fordham	A10	2.05	1.64	42.86	35.74	-0.29	-0.47
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.04	1.64	68.18	64.73	0.74	0.48
North Carolina	ACC	2.04	1.64	86.36	82.60	1.49	1.07
Villanova	BE	2.00	1.64	42.86	44.22	-0.29	-0.19
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.04	1.64	54.55	53.71	0.19	0.12
Lehigh	Pat	0.35	0.36	73.91	74.91	0.17	0.18
Colgate	Pat	0.35	0.31	30.43	29.50	-0.14	-0.13
American	Pat	0.36	0.31	65.22	63.79	0.11	0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.30	0.30	54.55	56.84	0.03	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.33	0.27	60.87	58.16	0.07	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.25	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.22	0.24	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.22	0.23	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.26	0.22	73.91	75.00	0.13	0.11
Yale	Ivy	0.31	0.22	72.22	63.19	0.14	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.17	0.22	33.33	38.38	-0.06	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.30	0.22	17.39	20.97	-0.19	-0.13
Hofstra	CAA	0.17	0.22	32.00	35.39	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.22	60.00	62.49	0.03	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.21	0.21	21.74	24.58	-0.12	-0.11
Siena	MAAC	0.26	0.19	45.45	45.55	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.26	0.19	70.83	68.82	0.11	0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.26	0.19	14.29	17.17	-0.19	-0.12
Stony Brook	AE	0.20	0.19	66.67	68.05	0.07	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.18	0.17	40.91	42.05	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.17	68.18	69.68	0.06	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.18	0.16	37.50	41.54	-0.04	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.13	0.16	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.18	0.16	79.17	75.98	0.10	0.08
Maryland	ACC	0.17	0.16	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.22	0.16	30.43	26.44	-0.08	-0.07
Longwood	ind	0.14	0.14	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.18	0.14	60.00	59.06	0.04	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.14	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.14	68.18	63.99	0.05	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.14	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.14	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.13	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.04
Boston University	AE	0.18	0.13	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.13	20.83	20.60	-0.10	-0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.21	0.13	13.64	16.35	-0.15	-0.09
Syracuse	BE	0.17	0.13	95.83	92.01	0.16	0.11
Manhattan	MAAC	0.21	0.13	68.00	69.07	0.08	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.21	0.13	36.36	38.48	-0.06	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.13	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.20	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.04	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.13	81.82	76.80	0.05	0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.11	79.17	78.10	0.10	0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.11	77.27	73.45	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.11	80.00	78.06	0.05	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.17	0.11	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.17	0.11	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.12	0.11	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.11	72.73	71.71	0.06	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.11	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.11	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.13	0.10	35.00	38.58	-0.04	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.04	0.10	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.10	82.61	77.63	0.08	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.10	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.10	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.08	73.91	68.58	0.06	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.14	0.08	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.08	28.57	26.30	-0.04	-0.04
Temple	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.08	69.57	61.31	0.03	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.09	0.08	22.22	27.62	-0.05	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.08	0.00	4.02	-0.09	-0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.08	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.08	69.57	65.47	0.03	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	8.70	13.10	-0.07	-0.06
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.13	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.08	81.82	80.43	0.08	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.04	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.08	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.04
Elon	SC	0.09	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.04	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.04	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.04	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.04	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.05	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.04	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.05	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.05	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.05	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.04	0.05	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.05	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.05	69.57	71.51	0.03	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.04	0.05	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.05	81.82	77.20	0.05	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.05	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.05	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.05	4.00	5.26	-0.07	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.05	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.03	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.04	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.04	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.04	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.04	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.04	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.04	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.04	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.04	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.04	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.04	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.04	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.04	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.04	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.04	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.04	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.04	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.04	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas	B12	0.04	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.04	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.03	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01