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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Monmouth

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:292.0
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:266
Current SOS:266
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:5-16
Expected Conf Record:5-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21292.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Hofstra (277.0)CAAA84-88W100%0.0
11-12Penn (284.0)IvyH73-79L0%0.0
11-18Seton Hall (128.0)BEA82-66L0%0.0
11-22St. John's (67.0)BEA64-54L0%0.0
11-26Penn St. (114.0)B10A84-52L0%0.0
11-29Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH81-79W100%0.0
11-30North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH76-61W100%0.0
12-5Rider (198.0)MAACH83-89L0%0.0
12-8Manhattan (60.0)MAACA75-66L0%0.0
12-10St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA58-73W100%0.0
12-14Binghamton (325.0)AEH74-46W100%0.0
12-21Fordham (226.0)A10H87-78W100%0.0
12-30Wagner (218.0)NECH52-59L0%0.0
1-2Siena (193.0)MAACH63-59W100%0.0
1-4Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH77-94L0%0.0
1-10Niagara (302.0)MAACA74-85W100%0.0
1-12Canisius (96.0)MAACA87-67L0%0.0
1-16Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA70-61L0%0.0
1-19Canisius (96.0)MAACH83-82W100%0.0
1-23Fairfield (289.0)MAACH63-60W100%0.0
1-26Rider (198.0)MAACA77-71L0%0.0
1-30Marist (250.0)MAACA75-73L0%0.0
2-4Iona (59.0)MAACH71-89L0%0.0
2-7Fairfield (289.0)MAACA60-56L0%0.0
2-9Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA61-50L0%0.0
2-14Iona (59.0)MAACA89-70L0%0.0
2-16Marist (250.0)MAACH92-96L0%0.0
2-19Manhattan (60.0)MAACH61-75L0%0.0
2-22Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH51-61L0%0.0
2-28Niagara (302.0)MAACH75-50W100%0.0
3-2Siena (193.0)MAACA70-54L0%0.0
3-6Rider (198.0)MAACN71-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MonmouthMAAC26.3926.3931.6931.69-9.66-9.66
RiderMAAC5.685.6839.2939.29-1.22-1.22
ManhattanMAAC4.264.2676.6776.672.272.27
IonaMAAC4.244.2466.6766.671.411.41
NiagaraMAAC4.224.2222.5822.58-2.31-2.31
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.214.2141.3841.38-0.73-0.73
CanisiusMAAC4.194.1966.6766.671.401.40
SienaMAAC4.164.1646.6746.67-0.28-0.28
QuinnipiacMAAC4.164.1662.0762.071.001.00
MaristMAAC4.144.1434.4834.48-1.28-1.28
FairfieldMAAC4.114.1120.0020.00-2.47-2.47
PennIvy1.791.7925.9325.93-0.86-0.86
WagnerNEC1.741.7458.6258.620.300.30
Seton HallBE1.711.7148.4848.48-0.05-0.05
FordhamA101.681.6833.3333.33-0.56-0.56
St. John'sBE1.681.6861.2961.290.380.38
HofstraCAA1.661.6631.2531.25-0.62-0.62
Penn St.B101.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
St. Francis NYNEC1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
BinghamtonAE1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.561.5621.4321.43-0.89-0.89
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.561.5626.6726.67-0.73-0.73
La SalleA100.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.250.2551.5251.520.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.240.2467.6567.650.090.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
PurdueB100.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.220.2287.5087.500.170.17
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.2016.1316.13-0.14-0.14
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.17-0.17
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
VermontAE0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.170.1764.2964.290.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
George MasonA100.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
NJITind0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
LafayettePat0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
DePaulBE0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01