Monmouth

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	199.0
Current RPI:	199
Expected SOS:	103
Current SOS:	103
Current Record:	11-20
Expected Record:	11-20
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-5
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	116
Expected OOC SOS:	8

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-20	199.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	79-78	W	100%
11-12	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	75-65	L	0%
11-14	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	72-80	W	100%
11-19	Virginia (1.0)	ACC	A	73-53	L	0%
11-22	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	62-51	L	0%
11-25	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	H	96-101	L	0%
11-27	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	81-73	W	100%
12-2	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	84-81	L	0%
12-6	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	84-85	L	0%
12-9	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	N	93-76	L	0%
12-12	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	A	69-58	L	0%
12-22	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	64-85	W	100%
12-28	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	78-76	L	0%
12-31	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	77-64	L	0%
1-5	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	77-66	W	100%
1-12	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	78-77	L	0%
1-14	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	94-79	L	0%
1-19	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	73-76	L	0%
1-25	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	67-56	W	100%
1-27	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	N	91-78	W	100%
1-29	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	92-85	L	0%
2-2	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	78-79	L	0%
2-4	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	91-96	L	0%
2-8	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	50-72	W	100%
2-10	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	93-76	L	0%
2-13	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	73-57	W	100%
2-16	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	60-78	L	0%
2-18	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	89-93	W	100%
2-22	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	91-77	W	100%
2-24	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	69-66	L	0%
3-1	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	N	58-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Monmouth	MAAC	26.29	26.29	36.69	36.69	-7.00	-7.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	5.67	5.67	41.38	41.38	-0.98	-0.98
Iona	MAAC	4.27	4.27	61.29	61.29	0.96	0.96
Fairfield	MAAC	4.14	4.14	48.39	48.39	-0.13	-0.13
Siena	MAAC	4.11	4.11	26.67	26.67	-1.92	-1.92
Rider	MAAC	4.08	4.08	72.41	72.41	1.83	1.83
Manhattan	MAAC	4.05	4.05	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Canisius	MAAC	4.03	4.03	63.33	63.33	1.08	1.08
Niagara	MAAC	4.03	4.03	56.67	56.67	0.54	0.54
Quinnipiac	MAAC	2.62	2.62	34.38	34.38	-0.82	-0.82
Marist	MAAC	2.55	2.55	20.00	20.00	-1.53	-1.53
Yale	Ivy	1.85	1.85	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Lehigh	Pat	1.82	1.82	53.57	53.57	0.13	0.13
Penn	Ivy	1.80	1.80	73.33	73.33	0.84	0.84
Albany	AE	1.79	1.79	70.00	70.00	0.72	0.72
Hofstra	CAA	1.77	1.77	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Princeton	Ivy	1.75	1.75	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Seton Hall	BE	1.74	1.74	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Bucknell	Pat	1.72	1.72	75.76	75.76	0.89	0.89
Virginia	ACC	1.64	1.64	93.75	93.75	1.44	1.44
Connecticut	Amer	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Kentucky	SEC	1.61	1.61	69.70	69.70	0.64	0.64
UNC Asheville	BSth	1.61	1.61	60.00	60.00	0.32	0.32
Holy Cross	Pat	0.28	0.28	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.26	0.26	23.08	23.08	-0.14	-0.14
Lafayette	Pat	0.26	0.26	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Columbia	Ivy	0.24	0.24	26.92	26.92	-0.11	-0.11
Army	Pat	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.21	0.21	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	Pat	0.21	0.21	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.20	0.20	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Louisville	ACC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Elon	CAA	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Loyola MD	Pat	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Stony Brook	AE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01