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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Monmouth

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:176.4
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:190
Current SOS:12
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:196



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-640.00.02%
24-747.60.05%
23-860.60.24%
22-974.10.92%
21-1086.21.95%
20-11102.14.61%
19-12118.77.70%
18-13137.511.23%
17-14155.914.37%
16-15175.115.51%
15-16193.514.22%
14-17212.212.60%
13-18230.98.19%
12-19248.64.58%
11-20266.72.35%
10-21281.41.02%
9-22293.90.27%
8-23313.60.11%
7-24311.50.04%
6-25324.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14West Virginia (32.7)B12A64-54L0%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (294.8)MEACH0-081%10.6
11-22Central Connecticut (251.2)NECH0-075%8.1
11-23Towson (218.4)CAAH0-071%6.8
11-28Maryland (44.4)B10A0-09%-15.8
11-30SMU (28.0)AmerA0-09%-15.9
12-4Marist (220.5)MAACA0-046%-1.3
12-7Iona (115.5)MAACH0-051%0.3
12-10Fordham (222.2)A10A0-043%-2.2
12-20Wagner (237.9)NECA0-054%1.1
12-23St. Francis NY (210.3)NECH0-066%5.1
12-28Rutgers (192.8)B10H0-060%2.9
1-2Canisius (124.1)MAACA0-034%-5.1
1-4Niagara (288.0)MAACA0-065%4.6
1-9Quinnipiac (181.6)MAACH0-061%3.3
1-12Rider (187.7)MAACA0-040%-3.0
1-14Saint Peter's (305.2)MAACH0-081%10.5
1-18Fairfield (199.3)MAACH0-070%6.4
1-21Penn (310.4)IvyA0-064%4.5
1-23Niagara (288.0)MAACH0-084%11.8
1-25Manhattan (150.1)MAACA0-030%-6.2
1-30Fairfield (199.3)MAACA0-047%-0.8
2-1Manhattan (150.1)MAACH0-053%1.0
2-5Quinnipiac (181.6)MAACA0-037%-3.9
2-8Canisius (124.1)MAACH0-057%2.1
2-14Siena (133.9)MAACA0-030%-6.2
2-16Marist (220.5)MAACH0-069%5.8
2-19Saint Peter's (305.2)MAACA0-061%3.3
2-22Iona (115.5)MAACA0-028%-6.8
2-26Rider (187.7)MAACH0-064%4.2
3-1Siena (133.9)MAACH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MonmouthMAAC33.3326.410.0052.30-33.331.22
RiderMAAC0.004.3050.0051.040.000.09
ManhattanMAAC0.004.270.0057.24-0.000.62
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.250.0026.55-0.00-1.99
FairfieldMAAC0.004.2550.0043.960.00-0.51
NiagaraMAAC0.004.2550.0029.350.00-1.75
SienaMAAC0.004.2533.3359.63-0.000.82
MaristMAAC0.004.250.0044.03-0.00-0.51
IonaMAAC0.004.2350.0058.640.000.73
CanisiusMAAC0.004.22100.0058.770.000.74
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.2250.0055.680.000.48
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.920.0047.51-0.00-0.10
WagnerNEC0.001.830.0044.19-0.00-0.21
PennIvy0.001.810.0025.64-0.00-0.88
RutgersB100.001.8150.0033.940.00-0.58
FordhamA100.001.750.0036.08-0.00-0.49
MarylandB100.001.75100.0067.000.000.59
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.750.0055.86-0.000.21
TowsonCAA0.001.6750.0045.820.00-0.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.670.0048.15-0.00-0.06
SMUAmer0.001.6133.3368.72-0.000.60
West VirginiaB1250.001.61100.0065.8850.000.51
MassachusettsA100.000.28100.0063.480.000.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2750.0035.120.00-0.08
La SalleA100.000.25100.0056.340.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.2566.6738.100.00-0.06
CornellIvy0.000.2250.0040.820.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.2250.0064.020.000.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.2050.0050.330.000.00
VermontAE0.000.2050.0066.190.000.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1950.0037.010.00-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.190.0048.12-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.170.0038.34-0.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.000.1733.3347.64-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1733.3350.49-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.170.0039.97-0.00-0.03
George MasonA108.330.1733.3324.67-2.78-0.08
BryantNEC0.000.1750.0051.350.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.170.0043.54-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1733.3337.88-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.170.0032.90-0.00-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1433.3333.86-0.00-0.05
BrownIvy0.000.1433.3338.98-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1450.0043.510.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1466.6746.550.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1450.0066.390.000.04
IndianaB100.000.13100.0064.540.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.1350.0065.490.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1150.0061.730.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.11100.0057.350.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.110.0054.91-0.000.01
VMISC0.000.1150.0044.060.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.1150.0038.380.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1166.6762.170.000.03
KansasB120.000.1150.0060.040.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.11100.0071.680.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.11100.0057.150.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1150.0055.200.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1166.6739.300.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1150.0061.290.000.02
MichiganB100.000.11100.0067.240.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.11100.0068.990.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.110.0038.06-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.090.0038.23-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0058.890.000.02
LafayettePat8.330.0966.6764.302.780.02
DavidsonA100.000.08100.0049.500.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.080.0022.72-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0028.74-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.08100.0053.570.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0065.830.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0069.58-0.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.08100.0049.980.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0833.3357.17-0.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.08100.0045.740.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.08100.0061.020.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0055.750.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.08100.0051.780.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.08100.0070.520.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0074.610.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.230.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.87-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.06100.0072.390.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.950.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.810.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.320.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0032.81-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0030.26-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.06100.0071.490.000.02
NavyPat0.000.060.0030.65-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.650.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0045.27-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.330.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0061.790.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.300.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0044.490.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3343.60-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0063.340.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.380.000.00
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.350.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0650.0045.040.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.510.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.05100.0061.570.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0029.01-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0065.390.000.02
NJITind0.000.0533.3329.88-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0550.0071.660.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.050.0042.76-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.05100.0085.060.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.05100.0059.190.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.05100.0065.680.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0060.930.000.01
IowaB100.000.0566.6773.790.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0566.6743.460.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.050.0065.41-0.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0550.0062.330.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.05100.0044.320.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.05100.0073.880.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.050.0060.94-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.050.0035.01-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.05100.0044.020.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0029.61-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0566.6757.250.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0550.0039.830.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0550.0046.350.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.05100.0081.830.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.050.0034.86-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.050.0035.57-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0550.0051.650.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0550.0052.180.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.05100.0048.410.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0566.6747.950.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3331.05-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0076.230.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0068.630.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.23-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.31-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0333.3350.61-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0063.68-0.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0043.990.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.990.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0048.49-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.10-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.660.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.81-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.03100.0043.270.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0056.850.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0087.640.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0040.830.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.91-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0039.66-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0034.44-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.86-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.17-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.460.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.020.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0055.290.000.00