live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Monmouth

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:66.9
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:219
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:52
Expected OOC SOS:79



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-322.00.08%
27-428.21.06%
26-532.73.46%
25-640.19.21%
24-747.915.36%
23-857.119.50%
22-968.319.19%
21-1081.315.16%
20-1194.59.51%
19-12109.94.67%
18-13125.81.91%
17-14143.30.67%
16-15160.70.16%
15-16177.80.04%
14-17199.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Drexel (217.5)CAAH78-65W100%0.0
11-15South Carolina (20.6)SECA70-69L0%0.0
11-18Syracuse (69.7)ACCA71-50L0%0.0
11-22Cornell (267.9)IvyH76-61W100%0.0
11-26South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACN86-62W100%0.0
11-27Holy Cross (195.1)PatA77-80W100%0.0
12-1Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACA72-91W100%0.0
12-4Canisius (198.8)MAACH94-88W100%0.0
12-6Wagner (225.9)NECA71-81W100%0.0
12-10Army (190.1)PatH0-082%10.9
12-13Memphis (138.5)AmerA0-042%-2.5
12-20Princeton (110.3)IvyH0-064%4.4
12-28North Carolina (5.1)ACCA0-04%-21.1
12-31Rider (198.1)MAACH0-083%11.4
1-2Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACA0-064%4.2
1-6Iona (105.1)MAACH0-069%5.8
1-8Marist (246.8)MAACH0-092%16.6
1-14Niagara (266.5)MAACA0-075%8.2
1-16Canisius (198.8)MAACA0-069%5.9
1-20Manhattan (261.3)MAACH0-090%15.4
1-22Fairfield (164.8)MAACH0-079%9.7
1-27Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACH0-089%14.9
1-30Marist (246.8)MAACA0-081%10.4
2-3Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACH0-081%10.5
2-6Rider (198.1)MAACA0-067%5.2
2-10Manhattan (261.3)MAACA0-078%9.2
2-13Siena (144.9)MAACA0-057%2.0
2-16Niagara (266.5)MAACH0-089%14.5
2-21Fairfield (164.8)MAACA0-061%3.5
2-24Siena (144.9)MAACH0-075%8.2
2-26Iona (105.1)MAACA0-049%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MonmouthMAAC28.3926.3685.3775.8220.0813.61
RiderMAAC0.404.2357.1452.560.060.22
FairfieldMAAC0.404.2362.5057.820.100.66
QuinnipiacMAAC5.564.2333.3339.84-1.85-0.86
SienaMAAC0.404.2133.3351.16-0.130.10
NiagaraMAAC0.354.2025.0036.97-0.17-1.10
MaristMAAC0.404.2044.4436.03-0.04-1.17
CanisiusMAAC5.564.1842.8646.41-0.79-0.30
IonaMAAC0.004.1857.1466.140.001.35
ManhattanMAAC0.354.1822.2233.11-0.19-1.41
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.1757.1452.520.000.21
Holy CrossPat6.711.8642.8649.02-0.96-0.04
DrexelCAA5.561.7757.1442.890.79-0.25
CornellIvy5.561.7533.3331.60-1.85-0.65
SyracuseACC6.711.7557.1460.810.960.38
South CarolinaSEC6.711.72100.0077.436.710.94
ArmyPat0.001.7242.8651.43-0.000.05
WagnerNEC5.561.7233.3354.68-1.850.16
South Carolina St.MEAC6.601.690.0027.22-6.60-0.77
PrincetonIvy0.001.6720.0060.97-0.000.37
MemphisAmer0.001.6475.0056.200.000.20
North CarolinaACC0.001.6487.5081.440.001.03
BucknellPat0.000.3070.0070.530.000.12
BrownIvy0.000.2850.0043.770.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.740.2542.8635.40-0.11-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2512.5026.05-0.00-0.12
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2442.8655.07-0.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.230.0020.72-0.00-0.13
AlbanyAE0.350.2142.8660.66-0.050.05
PennIvy0.000.2033.3356.66-0.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.400.2042.8643.78-0.06-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1916.6739.99-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1975.0050.980.000.00
HartfordAE0.350.1822.2226.44-0.19-0.09
VermontAE0.740.1862.5071.400.190.08
St. BonaventureA100.000.1875.0070.350.000.07
ColgatePat0.740.1612.5030.11-0.56-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.1642.8645.85-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1650.0041.700.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.1650.0041.640.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1655.5643.870.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1688.8967.470.000.05
HarvardIvy0.350.1533.3349.39-0.12-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.1414.2942.77-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1444.4438.15-0.00-0.03
LehighPat0.000.1437.5061.81-0.000.03
AmericanPat0.400.1412.5028.64-0.30-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1357.1429.760.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1357.1433.200.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.1390.0080.060.000.08
YaleIvy0.000.1242.8663.63-0.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1162.5052.400.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1125.0041.19-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0036.38-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.400.1120.0035.15-0.24-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1171.4354.560.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.740.1142.8644.90-0.11-0.01
MassachusettsA100.740.1171.4358.170.320.02
NavyPat0.000.1133.3338.56-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1162.5054.660.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1142.8653.80-0.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.11100.0076.970.000.06
KentuckySEC0.350.1087.5082.220.260.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1033.3352.03-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.1077.7871.770.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1075.0048.980.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.1075.0064.820.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.350.1037.5038.08-0.09-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0019.08-0.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.400.0844.4443.25-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.400.0875.0075.180.200.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0862.5060.090.000.02
Miami FLACC0.460.0877.7866.740.260.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.63-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.400.0875.0054.480.200.01
MaineAE0.000.0814.2923.40-0.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0875.0047.990.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0850.0044.700.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.350.0833.3331.35-0.12-0.03
RutgersB100.350.0887.5050.250.260.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.370.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.690.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0866.6770.400.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0812.5023.82-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.0888.8978.430.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.0622.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0628.5727.38-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.16-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0045.49-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.34-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.400.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.690.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0577.7872.930.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1451.810.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.400.05100.0092.200.400.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.400.0542.8650.98-0.060.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0512.5030.17-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0511.1132.47-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.030.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.290.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0533.3346.06-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0047.520.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.90-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.0528.5731.07-0.15-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0020.21-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.350.0540.0039.19-0.07-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.980.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0557.1471.170.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5642.150.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0542.8658.24-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0588.8977.470.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0525.0030.02-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.200.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0583.3371.500.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8645.98-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.650.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.350.0575.0055.480.170.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.0585.7169.920.250.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0037.700.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.71-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0585.7175.800.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0562.5071.850.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0577.7855.180.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0516.6749.78-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0585.7183.250.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0550.0071.340.000.02
WisconsinB100.350.0577.7876.550.190.03
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5067.080.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0342.8657.52-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.460.0377.7886.650.260.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6753.730.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.120.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
FIUCUSA0.350.0314.2935.05-0.25-0.01
High PointBSth0.350.0337.5044.87-0.09-0.00
La SalleA100.350.0357.1456.540.050.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.350.0357.1472.530.050.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
MichiganB100.350.0377.7865.840.190.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5646.770.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.600.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.01
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.41-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.350.0362.5062.120.090.01
North FloridaASun0.350.0312.5034.49-0.26-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.49-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.030.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.010.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.49-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0344.4436.20-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0320.0022.88-0.00-0.01