Monmouth

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	282.0
Current RPI:	282
Expected SOS:	236
Current SOS:	236
Current Record:	10-21
Expected Record:	10-21
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	227
Expected OOC SOS:	221

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-21	282.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	91-62	W	100%
11-12	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	84-57	L	0%
11-17	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	65-62	L	0%
11-19	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	62-49	L	0%
11-20	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	N	71-73	W	100%
11-21	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	N	81-70	W	100%
11-26	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	65-60	W	100%
12-3	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	65-77	W	100%
12-5	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	66-85	L	0%
12-8	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	108-56	L	0%
12-12	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	71-38	L	0%
12-22	Villanova (52.0)	BE	H	56-83	L	0%
12-31	Fordham (228.0)	A10	A	82-71	L	0%
1-3	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	60-56	L	0%
1-5	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	71-59	L	0%
1-10	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	65-60	W	100%
1-12	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	55-70	L	0%
1-17	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	67-71	W	100%
1-19	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	75-65	L	0%
1-24	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	73-54	W	100%
1-26	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	82-68	L	0%
1-31	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	58-78	L	0%
2-2	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	62-77	L	0%
2-7	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	79-63	L	0%
2-10	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	76-80	W	100%
2-14	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	66-80	L	0%
2-16	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	73-64	W	100%
2-21	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	77-65	L	0%
2-23	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	70-68	L	0%
2-28	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	63-77	L	0%
3-2	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	57-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Monmouth	NEC	26.17	26.17	32.62	32.62	-9.09	-9.09
Long Island	NEC	4.14	4.14	58.06	58.06	0.67	0.67
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.08	4.08	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Wagner	NEC	4.03	4.03	58.62	58.62	0.69	0.69
Robert Morris	NEC	4.02	4.02	67.74	67.74	1.43	1.43
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	3.98	3.98	24.14	24.14	-2.06	-2.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	3.97	3.97	42.86	42.86	-0.57	-0.57
St. Francis PA	NEC	3.90	3.90	14.81	14.81	-2.74	-2.74
Bryant	NEC	2.45	2.45	62.07	62.07	0.59	0.59
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.42	2.42	41.38	41.38	-0.42	-0.42
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.39	2.39	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.37	2.37	28.57	28.57	-1.01	-1.01
Lafayette	Pat	1.98	1.98	56.25	56.25	0.25	0.25
Hofstra	CAA	1.77	1.77	20.00	20.00	-1.06	-1.06
Navy	Pat	1.77	1.77	20.69	20.69	-1.04	-1.04
Syracuse	BE	1.77	1.77	73.53	73.53	0.83	0.83
Georgia St.	CAA	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Binghamton	AE	1.72	1.72	7.14	7.14	-1.47	-1.47
Notre Dame	BE	1.72	1.72	72.73	72.73	0.78	0.78
Maryland	ACC	1.69	1.69	63.64	63.64	0.46	0.46
Villanova	BE	1.68	1.68	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.67	1.67	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
South Alabama	SB	1.67	1.67	59.26	59.26	0.31	0.31
Fordham	A10	1.66	1.66	20.00	20.00	-1.00	-1.00
Rider	MAAC	1.66	1.66	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Lehigh	Pat	0.39	0.39	68.97	68.97	0.15	0.15
Colgate	Pat	0.29	0.29	34.38	34.38	-0.09	-0.09
Stony Brook	AE	0.24	0.24	76.67	76.67	0.13	0.13
Hartford	AE	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.23	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Albany	AE	0.21	0.21	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Army	Pat	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.21	0.21	84.38	84.38	0.14	0.14
St. John's	BE	0.20	0.20	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.20	0.20	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Louisville	BE	0.19	0.19	85.29	85.29	0.13	0.13
Brown	Ivy	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.17	0.17	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.16	0.16	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01