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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Monmouth

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:176.0
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:213
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-15176.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14West Virginia (24.0)B12A64-54L0%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH73-50W100%0.0
11-22Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH65-50W100%0.0
11-23Towson (281.0)CAAH75-79L0%0.0
11-28Maryland (13.0)B10A61-56L0%0.0
11-30SMU (12.0)AmerA63-51L0%0.0
12-4Marist (317.0)MAACA50-57W100%0.0
12-7Iona (51.0)MAACH92-89W100%0.0
12-10Fordham (238.0)A10A68-58L0%0.0
12-20Wagner (294.0)NECA66-74W100%0.0
12-23St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH46-71L0%0.0
12-28Rutgers (178.0)B10H58-59L0%0.0
1-2Canisius (180.0)MAACA68-73W100%0.0
1-4Niagara (287.0)MAACA50-66W100%0.0
1-9Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH64-68L0%0.0
1-12Rider (140.0)MAACA54-55W100%0.0
1-14Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH61-62L0%0.0
1-18Fairfield (299.0)MAACH77-70W100%0.0
1-21Penn (254.0)IvyA56-71W100%0.0
1-23Niagara (287.0)MAACH69-58W100%0.0
1-25Manhattan (168.0)MAACA71-64L0%0.0
1-30Fairfield (299.0)MAACA59-60W100%0.0
2-1Manhattan (168.0)MAACH76-87L0%0.0
2-5Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA72-52L0%0.0
2-8Canisius (180.0)MAACH44-40W100%0.0
2-14Siena (261.0)MAACA64-83W100%0.0
2-16Marist (317.0)MAACH69-65W100%0.0
2-19Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA58-63W100%0.0
2-22Iona (51.0)MAACA69-68L0%0.0
2-26Rider (140.0)MAACH60-63L0%0.0
3-1Siena (261.0)MAACH63-57W100%0.0
3-7Canisius (180.0)MAACN60-54W100%0.0
3-8Iona (51.0)MAACN95-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MonmouthMAAC26.4726.4755.0955.092.692.69
IonaMAAC5.565.5677.4277.423.053.05
CanisiusMAAC5.455.4559.2659.261.011.01
ManhattanMAAC4.204.2056.6756.670.560.56
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.164.1646.8846.88-0.26-0.26
SienaMAAC4.134.1337.9337.93-1.00-1.00
MaristMAAC4.124.1223.3323.33-2.20-2.20
RiderMAAC4.114.1166.6766.671.371.37
NiagaraMAAC4.064.0628.5728.57-1.74-1.74
FairfieldMAAC4.064.0624.1424.14-2.10-2.10
QuinnipiacMAAC4.034.0346.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Central ConnecticutNEC1.781.7816.6716.67-1.19-1.19
WagnerNEC1.711.7132.1432.14-0.61-0.61
PennIvy1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
RutgersB101.681.6829.0329.03-0.70-0.70
St. Francis NYNEC1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
MarylandB101.641.6481.2581.251.021.02
FordhamA101.631.6327.5927.59-0.73-0.73
TowsonCAA1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
SMUAmer1.521.5280.6580.650.930.93
West VirginiaB121.521.5270.9770.970.640.64
MassachusettsA100.290.2953.1253.120.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
CornellIvy0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.220.2251.5251.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
AlbanyAE0.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
LehighPat0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
BucknellPat0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
WoffordSC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
ElonCAA0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.040.04
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
LafayettePat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.040.04
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
NJITind0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00