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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Monmouth

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:173.6
Current RPI:184
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:174
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-661.00.02%
24-769.90.10%
23-886.50.68%
22-999.41.99%
21-10114.84.69%
20-11129.410.08%
19-12145.715.06%
18-13163.118.83%
17-14181.317.61%
16-15201.413.76%
15-16221.59.59%
14-17241.44.78%
13-18258.91.93%
12-19275.20.56%
11-20292.50.24%
10-21303.70.06%
9-22306.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14West Virginia (25.6)B12A64-54L0%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACH73-50W100%0.0
11-22Central Connecticut (309.7)NECH65-50W100%0.0
11-23Towson (195.0)CAAH75-79L0%0.0
11-28Maryland (47.6)B10A61-56L0%0.0
11-30SMU (35.6)AmerA63-51L0%0.0
12-4Marist (328.9)MAACA50-57W100%0.0
12-7Iona (79.7)MAACH92-89W100%0.0
12-10Fordham (260.3)A10A68-58L0%0.0
12-20Wagner (274.1)NECA0-062%3.7
12-23St. Francis NY (268.3)NECH0-080%9.8
12-28Rutgers (158.0)B10H0-074%7.5
1-2Canisius (126.9)MAACA0-034%-4.9
1-4Niagara (274.7)MAACA0-062%3.6
1-9Quinnipiac (225.4)MAACH0-073%7.2
1-12Rider (188.2)MAACA0-043%-2.2
1-14Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACH0-070%6.2
1-18Fairfield (246.9)MAACH0-083%11.4
1-21Penn (270.1)IvyA0-055%1.4
1-23Niagara (274.7)MAACH0-085%12.4
1-25Manhattan (286.9)MAACA0-053%0.8
1-30Fairfield (246.9)MAACA0-059%2.6
2-1Manhattan (286.9)MAACH0-079%9.6
2-5Quinnipiac (225.4)MAACA0-045%-1.5
2-8Canisius (126.9)MAACH0-063%3.9
2-14Siena (197.4)MAACA0-040%-3.1
2-16Marist (328.9)MAACH0-092%16.5
2-19Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACA0-041%-2.6
2-22Iona (79.7)MAACA0-020%-10.0
2-26Rider (188.2)MAACH0-071%6.6
3-1Siena (197.4)MAACH0-068%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MonmouthMAAC27.6926.3845.7158.40-2.374.43
RiderMAAC0.624.2950.0053.470.000.30
ManhattanMAAC0.284.2522.2237.76-0.15-1.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.2336.3647.32-0.00-0.23
MaristMAAC5.564.2311.1119.65-4.32-2.57
FairfieldMAAC0.314.2344.4440.51-0.03-0.80
NiagaraMAAC0.004.2314.2931.07-0.00-1.60
SienaMAAC0.404.2337.5052.24-0.100.19
IonaMAAC5.564.2175.0074.562.782.07
CanisiusMAAC0.004.2055.5662.110.001.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.2044.4450.28-0.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC6.391.9125.0031.87-3.20-0.69
WagnerNEC0.251.8314.2933.40-0.18-0.61
PennIvy0.281.8037.5032.54-0.07-0.63
RutgersB100.001.8060.0035.370.00-0.53
FordhamA105.811.7516.6725.61-3.87-0.85
MarylandB106.261.7590.0066.595.010.58
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.7522.2241.15-0.00-0.31
TowsonCAA6.141.6762.5049.761.54-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC6.171.6722.2235.30-3.43-0.49
SMUAmer5.561.6166.6770.311.850.66
West VirginiaB125.561.6188.8965.844.320.51
MassachusettsA100.000.2860.0055.630.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2728.5741.17-0.00-0.05
La SalleA100.000.2550.0049.960.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.310.2450.0051.050.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.2255.5648.240.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.2233.3348.89-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.2075.0065.410.000.06
VermontAE0.000.2044.4457.85-0.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1950.0058.360.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1950.0062.270.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.1628.5747.24-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1633.3344.71-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1637.5037.96-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1630.0039.44-0.00-0.03
LehighPat0.000.1637.5047.71-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.280.1640.0036.29-0.06-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1666.6757.860.000.03
George MasonA100.280.1625.0025.93-0.14-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.1618.1835.99-0.20-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1627.2737.85-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1455.5640.500.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.1440.0033.79-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.1440.0046.73-0.06-0.01
Penn St.B100.400.1390.9153.850.320.01
IndianaB100.280.1380.0057.630.170.02
WoffordSC0.310.1377.7876.240.170.07
Michigan St.B100.000.1372.7373.150.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1162.5064.770.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1172.7367.180.000.04
TempleAmer0.310.1163.6455.600.080.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1175.0069.120.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6752.340.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3327.70-0.00-0.05
HofstraCAA0.000.1177.7878.540.000.06
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1133.3342.19-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.280.1150.0057.510.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1137.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1150.0056.340.000.01
MichiganB100.000.1155.5642.550.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0037.13-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.1175.0071.730.140.05
VMISC0.810.1133.3339.22-0.27-0.02
KansasB120.000.1088.8969.390.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0011.87-0.00-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0877.7869.190.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0887.5077.020.000.05
MaineAE0.000.0811.1121.08-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0820.0029.81-0.17-0.03
St. John'sBE0.400.0887.5065.040.300.03
LafayettePat0.280.0875.0069.820.140.03
UCFAmer0.280.0855.5634.940.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.0844.4470.08-0.030.03
ArmyPat0.280.0877.7868.780.150.03
ArkansasSEC0.590.0877.7871.960.330.04
Boston CollegeACC0.560.0866.6742.100.19-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.0850.0044.900.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0016.85-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.250.0888.8963.800.200.02
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6743.780.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0888.8963.660.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.730.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0890.0067.260.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0677.7870.120.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.91-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.400.0641.6744.33-0.07-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.58-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0037.510.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.130.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.810.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.800.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6766.340.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0575.0060.400.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.050.0014.79-0.31-0.04
Arizona St.P120.530.0560.0053.820.110.00
East CarolinaAmer0.310.0537.5038.60-0.08-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0560.0062.970.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.007.39-0.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.05100.0087.140.000.04
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0530.0029.80-0.11-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.310.0566.6759.460.100.01
HawaiiBW0.280.0566.6754.830.090.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0570.0060.790.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0074.000.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0527.2738.97-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0550.0053.700.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0557.1456.750.000.01
NJITind0.000.0536.3640.98-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.620.0510.0020.91-0.49-0.03
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.870.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0533.3349.71-0.10-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0577.7851.350.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7365.930.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.310.0533.3332.85-0.10-0.02
IowaB100.000.0572.7362.590.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0037.220.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.730.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.310.0542.8636.79-0.04-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.620.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0590.0084.680.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.290.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0550.0040.880.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0066.180.000.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.860.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0588.8955.910.000.01
VirginiaACC0.250.05100.0085.310.250.04
Wake ForestACC0.310.0550.0038.000.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0590.9188.390.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.23-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0355.5657.090.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.870.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.400.0355.5654.360.040.00
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.420.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.0366.6777.030.090.02
GonzagaWCC0.280.0390.0090.940.220.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.280.0336.3644.53-0.08-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.280.0318.1821.30-0.18-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0310.0018.58-0.22-0.02
LamarSlnd0.280.0314.2934.12-0.20-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5042.45-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.280.0344.4456.91-0.030.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0362.5066.700.070.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0311.1144.62-0.22-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0337.5064.43-0.070.01
WyomingMWC0.280.0377.7873.370.150.01
AlabamaSEC0.310.0366.6754.660.100.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.670.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.280.0380.0064.110.170.01
MarshallCUSA0.280.0325.0038.92-0.14-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0325.0033.17-0.14-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.250.0360.0064.620.050.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.250.0328.5747.31-0.11-0.00