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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Monmouth

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:41.5
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:122
Current Record:19-5
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:11-2
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:18
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-532.333.93%
25-641.641.60%
24-751.619.68%
23-861.84.23%
22-973.40.53%
21-1082.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Monmouth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UCLA (70.7)P12A81-84W100%0.0
11-16USC (20.5)P12A101-90L0%0.0
11-21Drexel (265.3)CAAA74-82W100%0.0
11-26Notre Dame (40.1)ACCN70-68W100%0.0
11-27Dayton (13.3)A10N73-70L0%0.0
11-29USC (20.5)P12N83-73W100%0.0
12-4Canisius (216.9)MAACA96-86L0%0.0
12-6Niagara (308.0)MAACA42-56W100%0.0
12-13Wagner (191.0)NECH73-54W100%0.0
12-15Georgetown (72.3)BEA68-83W100%0.0
12-20Rutgers (281.3)B10A67-73W100%0.0
12-23Cornell (208.3)IvyA69-78W100%0.0
12-28Army (220.5)PatA91-84L0%0.0
1-4Canisius (216.9)MAACH81-66W100%0.0
1-9Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACH88-74W100%0.0
1-11Fairfield (170.0)MAACA74-86W100%0.0
1-15Iona (124.5)MAACA102-110W100%0.0
1-18Siena (100.1)MAACH85-69W100%0.0
1-21Manhattan (226.6)MAACA78-71L0%0.0
1-24Marist (312.2)MAACH83-72W100%0.0
1-28Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACA51-66W100%0.0
1-30Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACH73-57W100%0.0
2-1Siena (100.1)MAACA87-93W100%0.0
2-5Fairfield (170.0)MAACH91-67W100%0.0
2-9Marist (312.2)MAACA0-091%14.5
2-12Rider (226.7)MAACA0-073%6.8
2-15Manhattan (226.6)MAACH0-095%17.5
2-19Iona (124.5)MAACH0-078%8.4
2-21Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACA0-080%9.2
2-26Rider (226.7)MAACH0-089%13.4
2-28Niagara (308.0)MAACH0-097%20.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Monmouth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Monmouth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Monmouth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MonmouthMAAC26.5426.4485.5985.6818.8918.87
CanisiusMAAC4.874.2443.4844.99-0.64-0.43
SienaMAAC4.874.2469.5768.541.901.57
RiderMAAC1.004.2440.0043.72-0.20-0.53
FairfieldMAAC4.814.2359.0957.990.870.68
IonaMAAC2.814.2363.6464.420.771.22
MaristMAAC2.854.2323.8126.23-1.49-2.01
NiagaraMAAC2.914.2125.0026.16-1.45-2.01
QuinnipiacMAAC4.684.2042.1140.21-0.74-0.82
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.704.1740.0044.40-0.54-0.47
ManhattanMAAC2.774.1440.0041.15-0.55-0.73
USCP124.263.2880.9574.652.641.62
CornellIvy2.301.7744.4441.71-0.26-0.29
WagnerNEC2.171.7266.6767.440.720.60
UCLAP122.261.7259.0955.020.410.17
ArmyPat2.131.6750.0051.720.000.06
DrexelCAA2.131.6714.2918.81-1.52-1.04
DaytonA102.081.6185.7181.771.491.02
GeorgetownBE2.081.6156.5254.080.270.13
Notre DameACC2.081.6172.7368.120.950.58
RutgersB102.081.6122.7321.05-1.14-0.93
Oregon St.P120.280.2761.9056.420.070.03
BrownIvy0.240.2531.5831.05-0.09-0.10
AlbanyAE0.330.2575.0075.850.160.13
DartmouthIvy0.270.2231.5831.79-0.10-0.08
BucknellPat0.310.2254.5558.140.030.04
HartfordAE0.190.2226.0926.50-0.09-0.10
VermontAE0.270.2254.1757.520.020.03
St. BonaventureA100.260.2171.4368.970.110.08
LafayettePat0.290.2022.7324.04-0.16-0.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1737.5043.37-0.05-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.250.1766.6765.210.080.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1750.0051.910.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.1772.2274.710.020.08
DelawareCAA0.090.1721.7423.32-0.05-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.1734.7837.07-0.09-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.190.1739.1338.34-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.230.1773.6874.650.110.08
Seton HallBE0.190.1773.9169.830.090.07
BryantNEC0.220.1625.0026.37-0.11-0.08
Boston UniversityPat0.230.1654.1755.570.020.02
HofstraCAA0.260.1665.2264.220.080.05
Loyola MDPat0.260.1634.7837.15-0.08-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.1656.5256.610.010.02
St. John'sBE0.180.1626.0923.72-0.08-0.08
ArizonaP120.140.1679.1778.330.080.09
Arizona St.P120.140.1654.1751.660.010.01
OregonP120.140.1682.6179.210.090.09
WashingtonP120.270.1665.2261.070.080.03
Washington St.P120.270.1636.3632.00-0.07-0.06
George WashingtonA100.190.1478.2674.420.110.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1420.0026.74-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.140.1320.0020.45-0.09-0.08
XavierBE0.180.1391.3084.380.150.09
George MasonA100.140.1134.7834.15-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.190.1131.8232.67-0.07-0.04
MaineAE0.190.1134.7834.00-0.06-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.1147.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.130.1150.0046.740.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.1182.6178.890.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.130.1163.6459.440.040.02
LehighPat0.130.1133.3337.25-0.04-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1142.8650.41-0.020.00
North CarolinaACC0.180.1182.6178.690.120.06
Wake ForestACC0.140.1143.4840.61-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.170.1073.9170.040.080.04
MarylandB100.090.1087.5083.690.070.07
WisconsinB100.170.1060.8755.840.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.1075.0070.940.020.04
PennIvy0.050.0938.8937.66-0.01-0.02
ColgatePat0.100.0945.4546.10-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0813.0413.54-0.07-0.06
FordhamA100.100.0855.0052.290.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0850.0049.440.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.090.0871.4369.840.040.03
AmericanPat0.090.0830.4331.89-0.04-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.0852.1751.590.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0876.1973.400.070.04
SyracuseACC0.140.0866.6762.560.050.02
San DiegoWCC0.140.0831.8229.14-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0845.8344.11-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.140.0882.6180.580.090.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0866.6763.420.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0830.4335.11-0.05-0.02
CreightonBE0.130.0862.5059.780.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0830.4332.35-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.140.0830.0034.56-0.05-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0828.5728.54-0.06-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0865.2262.880.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0869.5765.330.000.02
RadfordBSth0.130.0850.0051.270.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0850.0046.610.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0869.5767.480.000.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.52-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.100.0621.7424.67-0.06-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0663.6460.940.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.250.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0670.8369.500.040.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.770.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.51-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0645.8346.66-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.390.040.04
TowsonCAA0.090.0665.2259.750.030.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0638.1040.73-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.0676.1968.220.050.02
AkronMAC0.050.0681.8280.030.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.860.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.450.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0625.0033.21-0.05-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0665.2261.450.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.040.030.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0565.2266.160.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0559.0953.030.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0530.4326.50-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0560.8760.240.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0563.6456.430.010.01
IndianaB100.090.0579.1774.020.050.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8276.740.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0583.3383.020.030.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0526.0927.82-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.810.010.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0558.3354.160.010.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3633.47-0.01-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0559.0958.880.020.01
ButlerBE0.040.0569.5767.230.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0523.8126.56-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0521.7422.74-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.090.0534.7834.45-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0552.6350.220.000.00
IdahoBSky0.090.0554.5554.930.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0542.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0562.5056.260.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0560.8763.000.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0514.2917.92-0.06-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0529.1733.15-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0556.5262.780.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0517.3920.66-0.06-0.03
VillanovaBE0.040.0586.9686.370.030.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0572.7376.360.040.03
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.47-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.3685.030.030.02
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0369.5764.890.000.01
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0382.6177.740.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0343.4842.62-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.36-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.01
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.490.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0356.5260.000.010.01
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.900.000.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.050.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0334.7840.92-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0373.9172.480.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.810.030.01
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.550.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.35-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.24-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.200.000.00