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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:180.0
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:200
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:11-10
Expected Conf Record:11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14180.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Vermont (203.0)AEH64-60W100%0.0
11-18Lehigh (175.0)PatA51-63W100%0.0
11-22St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A59-53L0%0.0
11-26Cornell (227.0)IvyA67-60L0%0.0
11-29Buffalo (28.0)MACH57-72L0%0.0
12-3Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA57-60W100%0.0
12-6Niagara (287.0)MAACA64-77W100%0.0
12-13Massachusetts (80.0)A10A75-58L0%0.0
12-18Stony Brook (107.0)AEH60-59W100%0.0
12-21Holy Cross (200.0)PatH67-48W100%0.0
12-30UMKC (295.0)WACH67-55W100%0.0
1-2Monmouth (176.0)MAACH68-73L0%0.0
1-4Manhattan (168.0)MAACH60-63L0%0.0
1-8Marist (317.0)MAACA52-67W100%0.0
1-10Iona (51.0)MAACA79-76L0%0.0
1-16Siena (261.0)MAACH83-49W100%0.0
1-18Iona (51.0)MAACH78-74W100%0.0
1-22Fairfield (299.0)MAACA50-64W100%0.0
1-24Rider (140.0)MAACA59-46L0%0.0
1-30Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH63-57W100%0.0
2-1Marist (317.0)MAACH67-75L0%0.0
2-6Manhattan (168.0)MAACA78-69L0%0.0
2-8Monmouth (176.0)MAACA44-40L0%0.0
2-13Rider (140.0)MAACH59-60L0%0.0
2-15Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH69-55W100%0.0
2-19Siena (261.0)MAACA63-69W100%0.0
2-21Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA63-65W100%0.0
2-24Niagara (287.0)MAACH71-82L0%0.0
2-27Fairfield (299.0)MAACH72-65W100%0.0
3-7Monmouth (176.0)MAACN60-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC26.4226.4252.7852.781.471.47
MonmouthMAAC5.995.9950.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC4.544.5478.1278.122.552.55
SienaMAAC4.544.5437.9337.93-1.10-1.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.524.5250.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC4.504.5056.6756.670.600.60
MaristMAAC4.434.4320.0020.00-2.66-2.66
QuinnipiacMAAC4.434.4353.5753.570.320.32
NiagaraMAAC4.434.4325.0025.00-2.21-2.21
RiderMAAC4.404.4063.3363.331.171.17
FairfieldMAAC4.374.3724.1424.14-2.26-2.26
MassachusettsA101.881.8851.6151.610.060.06
St. BonaventureA101.851.8556.6756.670.250.25
VermontAE1.851.8558.6258.620.320.32
LehighPat1.831.8353.5753.570.130.13
CornellIvy1.801.8039.2939.29-0.38-0.38
BuffaloMAC1.781.7870.9770.970.750.75
Stony BrookAE1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
Holy CrossPat1.721.7246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
UMKCWAC1.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
AlbanyAE0.380.3875.0075.000.190.19
HartfordAE0.350.3544.8344.83-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.310.3136.6736.67-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.300.3056.2556.250.040.04
PennIvy0.290.2932.1432.14-0.10-0.10
BinghamtonAE0.270.2716.6716.67-0.18-0.18
FordhamA100.260.2630.0030.00-0.10-0.10
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
George MasonA100.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1816.1316.13-0.12-0.12
RutgersB100.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
AmericanPat0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
ArmyPat0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
PittsburghACC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
MaineAE0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
WagnerNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
ColgatePat0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
HarvardIvy0.140.1474.0774.070.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
LafayettePat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
NavyPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02