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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:126.9
Current RPI:110
Expected SOS:190
Current SOS:176
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:124
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-539.60.08%
23-648.00.44%
22-762.31.93%
21-875.05.76%
20-989.811.50%
19-10105.717.23%
18-11122.020.08%
17-12138.918.17%
16-13157.712.77%
15-14176.36.92%
14-15197.23.49%
13-16218.61.18%
12-17237.20.36%
11-18250.70.07%
10-19284.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Vermont (175.2)AEH64-60W100%0.0
11-18Lehigh (182.3)PatA51-63W100%0.0
11-22St. Bonaventure (102.8)A10A59-53L0%0.0
11-26Cornell (181.7)IvyA67-60L0%0.0
11-29Buffalo (46.6)MACN57-72L0%0.0
12-3Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACA57-60W100%0.0
12-6Niagara (274.7)MAACA64-77W100%0.0
12-13Massachusetts (87.1)A10A75-58L0%0.0
12-18Stony Brook (147.2)AEH60-59W100%0.0
12-21Holy Cross (158.1)PatH0-072%6.9
12-30UMKC (270.3)WACH0-080%10.1
1-2Monmouth (173.6)MAACH0-066%4.9
1-4Manhattan (286.9)MAACH0-080%10.1
1-8Marist (328.9)MAACA0-076%8.2
1-10Iona (79.7)MAACA0-021%-9.5
1-16Siena (197.4)MAACH0-070%6.2
1-18Iona (79.7)MAACH0-047%-0.8
1-22Fairfield (246.9)MAACA0-061%3.1
1-24Rider (188.2)MAACA0-044%-1.6
1-30Quinnipiac (225.4)MAACH0-074%7.7
2-1Marist (328.9)MAACH0-093%17.0
2-6Manhattan (286.9)MAACA0-055%1.3
2-8Monmouth (173.6)MAACA0-037%-3.9
2-13Rider (188.2)MAACH0-073%7.1
2-15Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACH0-071%6.7
2-19Siena (197.4)MAACA0-041%-2.6
2-21Quinnipiac (225.4)MAACA0-047%-1.0
2-24Niagara (274.7)MAACH0-086%12.9
2-27Fairfield (246.9)MAACH0-084%11.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC27.8926.4265.8562.878.846.80
SienaMAAC0.934.6037.5052.36-0.230.22
QuinnipiacMAAC0.664.5444.4450.40-0.070.04
NiagaraMAAC6.164.5416.6732.51-4.10-1.59
RiderMAAC0.354.5250.0053.580.000.32
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.954.5240.0049.40-1.19-0.05
IonaMAAC0.004.5266.6772.790.002.06
ManhattanMAAC0.284.5122.2237.87-0.15-1.09
MonmouthMAAC0.004.4944.4457.07-0.000.63
FairfieldMAAC0.004.4844.4440.61-0.00-0.84
MaristMAAC0.004.4810.0018.81-0.00-2.80
MassachusettsA105.561.9655.5654.150.620.16
St. BonaventureA106.301.9371.4364.182.700.55
LehighPat5.561.9042.8649.47-0.79-0.02
VermontAE5.561.9050.0059.990.000.38
CornellIvy5.561.8750.0046.400.00-0.13
BuffaloMAC5.901.8471.4368.052.530.67
Holy CrossPat0.001.7957.1454.110.000.15
Stony BrookAE5.561.7937.5056.69-1.390.24
UMKCWAC0.001.7222.2242.72-0.00-0.25
AlbanyAE0.000.3933.3348.89-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.960.3850.0051.050.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.310.3033.3327.70-0.10-0.13
BucknellPat0.000.3040.0036.29-0.00-0.08
PennIvy0.000.2937.5033.00-0.00-0.10
BinghamtonAE0.310.270.0011.87-0.31-0.20
FordhamA100.000.2628.5728.26-0.00-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.250.2433.3342.19-0.08-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.2055.5640.500.03-0.04
George MasonA100.310.2025.0025.93-0.15-0.10
La SalleA100.250.2050.0049.960.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.560.2027.2737.85-0.26-0.05
ArmyPat0.000.1877.7868.780.000.07
PittsburghACC0.740.1866.6752.340.250.01
MaineAE0.000.1811.1121.08-0.00-0.10
RutgersB100.250.1760.0035.070.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1722.2230.85-0.00-0.06
AmericanPat0.000.1660.0065.400.000.05
ColgatePat0.310.1620.0043.08-0.19-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.1510.0020.91-0.00-0.09
UMass LowellAE0.310.1555.5654.360.030.01
HarvardIvy0.590.1585.7172.940.420.07
ColumbiaIvy0.660.1562.5064.770.160.04
YaleIvy0.310.1572.7367.180.140.05
BrownIvy0.250.1540.0033.79-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.280.1466.6757.860.090.02
WagnerNEC0.310.1414.2933.54-0.22-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.1475.0071.730.140.06
LafayettePat0.000.1375.0069.820.000.05
NavyPat0.000.1320.0021.58-0.00-0.07
New HampshireAE0.000.1257.1464.620.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.350.1244.4447.53-0.04-0.01
DavidsonA100.400.1287.5077.020.300.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1218.1835.99-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.660.1125.0037.13-0.33-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1177.7876.240.000.06
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0055.810.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0960.0033.870.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.0936.3644.53-0.09-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0977.7870.120.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0928.5731.23-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.280.0950.0037.510.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0955.5657.090.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.50-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.350.0942.8638.11-0.05-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3332.85-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5073.190.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.280.0966.6742.100.09-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.660.0633.3344.71-0.22-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0610.0030.45-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.40-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5046.50-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.400.0687.5065.040.300.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.20-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3340.31-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.350.0662.5054.970.090.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.310.0672.7353.260.140.00
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.350.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.80-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.830.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4361.370.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.000.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.22-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.980.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0034.08-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.17-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.0650.0056.340.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.250.0690.0067.260.200.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.060.0016.85-0.25-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.360.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
BryantNEC0.310.0328.5747.24-0.13-0.00
DePaulBE0.350.0360.0034.110.07-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.350.0350.0062.270.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.43-0.000.01
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.350.03100.0082.080.350.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8638.26-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.310.0377.7869.190.170.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.310.0362.5059.510.080.01
HofstraCAA0.310.0377.7878.540.170.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.91-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0388.8963.800.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.350.0318.1844.62-0.22-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.220.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.58-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.75-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.310.0390.9153.850.250.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.58-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.310.0362.5064.260.080.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0355.5649.500.03-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4544.07-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
KentuckySEC0.350.03100.0094.790.350.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.350.0330.0039.44-0.14-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.350.0355.5654.950.040.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
LSUSEC0.280.0380.0064.110.170.01
Notre DameACC0.280.0390.9171.890.230.01