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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:220.0
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:190
Current SOS:190
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:9-13
Expected Conf Record:9-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:170
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19220.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Hofstra (54.0)CAAA96-85L0%0.0
11-16Lehigh (168.0)PatH98-89W100%0.0
11-21Cornell (244.0)IvyH87-62W100%0.0
11-24St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H73-77L0%0.0
11-28Buffalo (90.0)MACA98-96L0%0.0
12-4Monmouth (52.0)MAACH96-86W100%0.0
12-5Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH76-78L0%0.0
12-10Penn St. (125.0)B10A81-67L0%0.0
12-12Kent St. (124.0)MACA84-77L0%0.0
12-19Boston University (196.0)PatH84-68W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBN108-96W100%0.0
12-23Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndN83-74W100%0.0
1-2Marist (318.0)MAACA83-92W100%0.0
1-4Monmouth (52.0)MAACA81-66L0%0.0
1-7Manhattan (229.0)MAACH86-94L0%0.0
1-9Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH53-70L0%0.0
1-12Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA80-69L0%0.0
1-15Manhattan (229.0)MAACA62-65W100%0.0
1-17Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA53-63W100%0.0
1-22Niagara (315.0)MAACA61-70W100%0.0
1-24Siena (104.0)MAACH78-99L0%0.0
1-29Fairfield (142.0)MAACA84-77L0%0.0
1-31Rider (242.0)MAACA79-68L0%0.0
2-5Iona (77.0)MAACH66-84L0%0.0
2-7Rider (242.0)MAACH67-61W100%0.0
2-11Siena (104.0)MAACA90-67L0%0.0
2-14Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA61-57L0%0.0
2-18Fairfield (142.0)MAACH71-74L0%0.0
2-20Marist (318.0)MAACH81-66W100%0.0
2-25Niagara (315.0)MAACH65-60W100%0.0
2-28Iona (77.0)MAACA86-78L0%0.0
3-3Niagara (315.0)MAACN102-97W100%0.0
3-4Iona (77.0)MAACN73-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC26.4726.4742.3842.38-4.03-4.03
IonaMAAC5.555.5565.5265.521.721.72
NiagaraMAAC5.485.4824.1424.14-2.84-2.84
SienaMAAC4.194.1961.2961.290.950.95
MonmouthMAAC4.194.1981.2581.252.622.62
FairfieldMAAC4.114.1156.6756.670.550.55
RiderMAAC4.094.0938.7138.71-0.92-0.92
MaristMAAC4.084.0825.0025.00-2.04-2.04
ManhattanMAAC4.084.0841.3841.38-0.70-0.70
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.064.0642.8642.86-0.58-0.58
QuinnipiacMAAC4.054.0528.5728.57-1.74-1.74
CornellIvy1.711.7134.6234.62-0.53-0.53
St. BonaventureA101.681.6872.4172.410.750.75
DartmouthIvy1.671.6730.7730.77-0.64-0.64
Kent St.MAC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
Boston UniversityPat1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
BuffaloMAC1.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
HofstraCAA1.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
LehighPat1.561.5653.3353.330.100.10
Penn St.B101.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
Nicholls St.Slnd1.521.5226.6726.67-0.71-0.71
VermontAE0.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
BrownIvy0.280.2825.9325.93-0.14-0.14
AlbanyAE0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
BucknellPat0.260.2655.1755.170.030.03
HartfordAE0.250.2528.1228.12-0.11-0.11
ColumbiaIvy0.230.2365.5265.520.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
DrexelCAA0.210.2120.0020.00-0.13-0.13
PrincetonIvy0.210.2177.7877.780.120.12
ArmyPat0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
DelawareCAA0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
AkronMAC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
YaleIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
LafayettePat0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
AmericanPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
OhioMAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
WagnerNEC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
HarvardIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Oregon St.P120.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00