live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:252
Current SOS:252
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:208
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11124.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Buffalo (25.0)MACA80-75L0%0.0
11-14Air Force (253.0)MWCA93-79L0%0.0
11-18Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzH104-84W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCA60-52L0%0.0
11-24Texas St. (243.0)SBN68-62W100%0.0
11-25Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACN58-81W100%0.0
11-26Pacific (190.0)WCCA80-58L0%0.0
12-2Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH73-60W100%0.0
12-6St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H65-73L0%0.0
12-9Evansville (151.0)MVCA65-58L0%0.0
12-16Albany (142.0)AEA68-65L0%0.0
12-19Elon (205.0)CAAH67-51W100%0.0
12-22Robert Morris (196.0)NECA62-76W100%0.0
12-29Rider (69.0)MAACH77-76W100%0.0
12-31Iona (107.0)MAACH85-78W100%0.0
1-5Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA74-82W100%0.0
1-7Siena (299.0)MAACA65-62L0%0.0
1-12Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACH70-58W100%0.0
1-14Monmouth (199.0)MAACH94-79W100%0.0
1-19Manhattan (228.0)MAACA59-68W100%0.0
1-21Iona (107.0)MAACA82-84W100%0.0
1-27Niagara (163.0)MAACH89-105L0%0.0
2-2Marist (324.0)MAACA67-73W100%0.0
2-4Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACA58-73W100%0.0
2-8Siena (299.0)MAACH89-65W100%0.0
2-10Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH71-64W100%0.0
2-12Fairfield (180.0)MAACH81-63W100%0.0
2-16Monmouth (199.0)MAACA60-78W100%0.0
2-18Rider (69.0)MAACA83-82L0%0.0
2-21Niagara (163.0)MAACA88-95W100%0.0
2-25Marist (324.0)MAACH98-74W100%0.0
3-2Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACN69-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC26.2826.2869.7269.7210.3710.37
QuinnipiacMAAC5.485.4836.6736.67-1.46-1.46
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.084.0846.6746.67-0.27-0.27
SienaMAAC4.004.0023.3323.33-2.13-2.13
IonaMAAC3.963.9664.5264.521.151.15
NiagaraMAAC3.933.9360.0060.000.790.79
RiderMAAC3.933.9372.4172.411.761.76
MonmouthMAAC3.913.9137.9337.93-0.94-0.94
MaristMAAC3.883.8820.6920.69-2.27-2.27
FairfieldMAAC2.612.6153.1253.120.160.16
ManhattanMAAC2.442.4446.6746.67-0.16-0.16
AlbanyAE1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
Robert MorrisNEC1.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA101.681.6877.4277.420.920.92
BuffaloMAC1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
DartmouthIvy1.661.6624.0024.00-0.86-0.86
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.641.6441.1841.18-0.29-0.29
PacificWCC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Texas St.SB1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Air ForceMWC1.641.6432.1432.14-0.58-0.58
ElonCAA1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Youngstown St.Horz1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
EvansvilleMVC1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
HofstraCAA0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
VermontAE0.220.2278.7978.790.130.13
YaleIvy0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.180.1838.4638.46-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1626.9226.92-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
MaineAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
BryantNEC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
LehighPat0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
MassachusettsA100.140.1439.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1332.3532.35-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
DelawareCAA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
BucknellPat0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
BYUWCC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ColoradoP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
OhioMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ColgatePat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00