Canisius

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	112.0
Current RPI:	112
Expected SOS:	142
Current SOS:	142
Current Record:	18-13
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	71
Expected OOC SOS:	97

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	112.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	83-75	W	100%
11-17	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	H	72-69	W	100%
11-20	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	H	71-64	W	100%
11-24	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	82-75	L	0%
11-29	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	65-83	W	100%
12-7	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	55-67	W	100%
12-9	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	82-94	W	100%
12-15	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	85-61	L	0%
12-17	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	82-54	W	100%
12-19	Temple (42.0)	A10	A	62-72	W	100%
12-22	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	89-74	L	0%
12-27	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	87-74	W	100%
12-30	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	83-78	L	0%
1-3	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	45-66	L	0%
1-5	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	73-64	W	100%
1-11	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	57-54	L	0%
1-13	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	97-87	L	0%
1-17	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	64-60	W	100%
1-19	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	76-44	W	100%
1-25	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	50-67	W	100%
1-27	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	65-66	L	0%
1-31	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	91-79	W	100%
2-2	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	77-74	W	100%
2-7	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	67-54	L	0%
2-10	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	70-77	W	100%
2-14	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	68-64	L	0%
2-16	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	59-68	W	100%
2-23	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	87-79	L	0%
2-28	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	77-65	W	100%
3-2	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	61-65	L	0%
3-9	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	N	89-85	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Canisius	MAAC	26.34	26.34	60.74	60.74	5.66	5.66
Iona	MAAC	5.78	5.78	60.00	60.00	1.16	1.16
Manhattan	MAAC	4.31	4.31	43.33	43.33	-0.57	-0.57
Niagara	MAAC	4.28	4.28	60.00	60.00	0.86	0.86
Fairfield	MAAC	4.24	4.24	56.25	56.25	0.53	0.53
Siena	MAAC	4.24	4.24	23.33	23.33	-2.26	-2.26
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.16	4.16	66.67	66.67	1.39	1.39
Rider	MAAC	4.16	4.16	56.67	56.67	0.55	0.55
Marist	MAAC	4.16	4.16	34.48	34.48	-1.29	-1.29
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.15	4.15	32.14	32.14	-1.48	-1.48
Stony Brook	AE	1.93	1.93	75.86	75.86	1.00	1.00
Vermont	AE	1.90	1.90	64.52	64.52	0.55	0.55
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.85	1.85	24.14	24.14	-0.96	-0.96
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.84	1.84	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	1.82	1.82	60.71	60.71	0.39	0.39
Buffalo	MAC	1.77	1.77	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Temple	A10	1.74	1.74	74.19	74.19	0.84	0.84
Syracuse	BE	1.69	1.69	73.53	73.53	0.80	0.80
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.69	1.69	29.03	29.03	-0.71	-0.71
Detroit	Horz	1.69	1.69	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Longwood	BSth	1.61	1.61	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.61	1.61	71.88	71.88	0.71	0.71
Albany	AE	0.41	0.41	70.59	70.59	0.17	0.17
Binghamton	AE	0.34	0.34	6.90	6.90	-0.30	-0.30
Hartford	AE	0.34	0.34	56.67	56.67	0.05	0.05
Maine	AE	0.32	0.32	34.48	34.48	-0.10	-0.10
New Hampshire	AE	0.24	0.24	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Rutgers	BE	0.23	0.23	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.23	0.23	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.20	0.20	22.58	22.58	-0.11	-0.11
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.18	0.18	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.10	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01