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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:171.0
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:207
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:11-11
Expected Conf Record:11-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:213



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-15171.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kentucky (3.0)SECA93-69L0%0.0
11-15Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
11-18Duquesne (267.0)A10A77-78W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
11-23Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH58-72L0%0.0
11-26Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA84-90W100%0.0
12-2Manhattan (263.0)MAACA76-77W100%0.0
12-4Monmouth (49.0)MAACA94-88L0%0.0
12-7Boston University (187.0)PatA77-87W100%0.0
12-10St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH91-81W100%0.0
12-12Albany (129.0)AEH77-64W100%0.0
12-17Buffalo (146.0)MACN87-94W100%0.0
12-22St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A101-106W100%0.0
1-2Siena (122.0)MAACH82-79W100%0.0
1-4Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH83-77W100%0.0
1-8Iona (89.0)MAACA98-75L0%0.0
1-10Fairfield (180.0)MAACA72-86W100%0.0
1-14Marist (276.0)MAACH91-58W100%0.0
1-16Monmouth (49.0)MAACH72-76L0%0.0
1-20Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA95-90L0%0.0
1-23Niagara (275.0)MAACA91-84L0%0.0
1-28Manhattan (263.0)MAACH78-64W100%0.0
1-30Rider (198.0)MAACH66-72L0%0.0
2-4Siena (122.0)MAACA73-80W100%0.0
2-6Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA70-72W100%0.0
2-10Niagara (275.0)MAACH81-94L0%0.0
2-14Iona (89.0)MAACH89-83W100%0.0
2-17Rider (198.0)MAACA77-85W100%0.0
2-19Marist (276.0)MAACA76-74L0%0.0
2-24Fairfield (180.0)MAACH55-58L0%0.0
2-26Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH65-72L0%0.0
3-2Marist (276.0)MAACN77-73W100%0.0
3-3Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACN61-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC26.4426.4455.6255.622.972.97
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.535.5358.6258.620.950.95
MaristMAAC5.465.4624.1424.14-2.82-2.82
SienaMAAC4.164.1653.1253.120.260.26
NiagaraMAAC4.144.1425.8125.81-2.00-2.00
IonaMAAC4.134.1365.6265.621.291.29
RiderMAAC4.064.0654.8454.840.390.39
MonmouthMAAC4.064.0680.6580.652.492.49
ManhattanMAAC4.044.0433.3333.33-1.35-1.35
QuinnipiacMAAC4.014.0131.0331.03-1.52-1.52
FairfieldMAAC4.014.0153.5753.570.290.29
St. BonaventureA101.681.6864.5264.520.490.49
Cleveland St.Horz1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6610.3410.34-1.31-1.31
AlbanyAE1.661.6662.5062.500.410.41
Youngstown St.Horz1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
DuquesneA101.631.6332.2632.26-0.58-0.58
Tennessee MartinOVC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
KentuckySEC1.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
BuffaloMAC1.581.5851.7251.720.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC1.541.5451.8551.850.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.240.2446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.230.2384.8584.850.160.16
BrownIvy0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
ArmyPat0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
BucknellPat0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
DrexelCAA0.190.1925.8125.81-0.09-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
DetroitHorz0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
LafayettePat0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
MaineAE0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
Rhode IslandA100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
OhioMAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Saint LouisA100.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
NevadaMWC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
LipscombASun0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
DrakeMVC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0476.6776.670.020.02
NJITASun0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0418.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02