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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:215.4
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:205
Current Record:10-13
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13161.20.19%
17-14176.12.56%
16-15189.611.55%
15-16203.425.23%
14-17217.631.09%
13-18231.820.41%
12-19247.17.65%
11-20261.11.22%
10-21275.20.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Hofstra (71.0)CAAA96-85L0%0.0
11-16Lehigh (226.7)PatH98-89W100%0.0
11-21Cornell (193.7)IvyH87-62W100%0.0
11-24St. Bonaventure (50.1)A10H73-77L0%0.0
11-28Buffalo (93.2)MACA98-96L0%0.0
12-4Monmouth (42.9)MAACH96-86W100%0.0
12-5Quinnipiac (266.0)MAACH76-78L0%0.0
12-10Penn St. (143.9)B10A81-67L0%0.0
12-12Kent St. (104.7)MACA84-77L0%0.0
12-19Boston University (198.8)PatH84-68W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Monroe (182.5)SBN108-96W100%0.0
12-23Nicholls St. (335.2)SlndN83-74W100%0.0
1-2Marist (319.1)MAACA83-92W100%0.0
1-4Monmouth (42.9)MAACA81-66L0%0.0
1-7Manhattan (221.3)MAACH86-94L0%0.0
1-9Saint Peter's (226.3)MAACH53-70L0%0.0
1-12Dartmouth (279.6)IvyA80-69L0%0.0
1-15Manhattan (221.3)MAACA62-65W100%0.0
1-17Quinnipiac (266.0)MAACA53-63W100%0.0
1-22Niagara (301.6)MAACA61-70W100%0.0
1-24Siena (89.9)MAACH78-99L0%0.0
1-29Fairfield (176.3)MAACA84-77L0%0.0
1-31Rider (225.8)MAACA79-68L0%0.0
2-5Iona (140.8)MAACH0-045%-1.5
2-7Rider (225.8)MAACH0-060%2.6
2-11Siena (89.9)MAACA0-019%-9.6
2-14Saint Peter's (226.3)MAACA0-044%-1.8
2-18Fairfield (176.3)MAACH0-062%3.2
2-20Marist (319.1)MAACH0-084%11.0
2-25Niagara (301.6)MAACH0-081%9.7
2-28Iona (140.8)MAACA0-023%-8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC26.5026.4045.8746.06-2.19-2.08
SienaMAAC3.154.3063.6465.070.861.29
MaristMAAC2.904.2620.0022.34-1.74-2.36
MonmouthMAAC5.024.2480.9582.433.112.75
NiagaraMAAC3.004.2427.2727.85-1.36-1.88
FairfieldMAAC2.844.2452.3852.420.140.21
QuinnipiacMAAC4.924.2336.8436.56-1.30-1.14
RiderMAAC2.804.2136.3640.34-0.76-0.81
IonaMAAC0.764.2057.1457.080.110.59
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.674.1736.8439.81-0.70-0.85
ManhattanMAAC4.784.1444.4442.72-0.53-0.60
CornellIvy2.431.8350.0044.780.00-0.19
DartmouthIvy2.341.7831.2531.39-0.88-0.66
Kent St.MAC2.381.7865.0060.360.710.37
St. BonaventureA102.371.7768.4267.990.870.64
Boston UniversityPat2.391.7354.5556.310.220.22
BuffaloMAC2.281.6955.0056.060.230.21
HofstraCAA2.281.6966.6764.200.760.48
Penn St.B102.281.6745.4541.77-0.21-0.27
LehighPat2.271.6731.5837.50-0.84-0.42
Louisiana MonroeSB2.271.6742.1146.59-0.36-0.11
Nicholls St.Slnd2.171.6110.5315.85-1.72-1.10
BucknellPat0.350.3052.3856.750.020.04
VermontAE0.420.3056.5258.380.050.05
BrownIvy0.150.2829.4129.72-0.06-0.12
AlbanyAE0.360.2773.9175.000.170.14
ColumbiaIvy0.400.2668.4265.480.150.08
HartfordAE0.320.2526.0926.47-0.15-0.12
Loyola MDPat0.310.2531.8234.36-0.11-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.100.2368.7573.150.040.11
Holy CrossPat0.260.2240.9139.71-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.250.2254.5555.990.020.03
YaleIvy0.100.2070.5972.600.040.09
DelawareCAA0.150.1922.7323.65-0.08-0.10
DrexelCAA0.240.1914.2918.59-0.17-0.12
LafayettePat0.170.1723.8125.23-0.09-0.08
AkronMAC0.050.1680.9579.160.030.10
WagnerNEC0.190.1661.9063.360.050.04
HarvardIvy0.240.1538.8942.86-0.05-0.02
ColgatePat0.170.1442.8643.53-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.1431.8235.17-0.07-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1454.5555.960.010.02
OhioMAC0.160.1460.0057.940.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1381.8277.420.100.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1338.8943.23-0.03-0.02
PennIvy0.000.1231.2532.68-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.1234.7841.60-0.05-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.1131.8232.71-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.150.1165.2265.220.050.03
BinghamtonAE0.220.1122.7326.19-0.12-0.05
George WashingtonA100.100.1177.2771.670.060.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1160.0054.580.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1121.0529.17-0.09-0.05
DaytonA100.150.1185.7181.210.110.07
La SalleA100.100.1121.0520.90-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.1155.0048.830.01-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1128.5728.87-0.04-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1126.0930.34-0.07-0.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1166.6763.490.030.03
USCP120.190.1078.2673.090.110.05
SyracuseACC0.170.0966.6762.710.060.02
Seton HallBE0.120.0972.7368.660.050.03
MaineAE0.170.0936.3635.58-0.05-0.02
FordhamA100.110.0957.8954.300.020.01
George MasonA100.160.0936.3635.32-0.04-0.03
MemphisAmer0.160.0959.0958.570.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0827.2730.42-0.05-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0818.7526.10-0.07-0.04
MassachusettsA100.100.0842.8639.88-0.01-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.0847.8348.71-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.110.0826.0927.58-0.05-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0850.0050.870.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.0866.6758.770.030.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0857.1457.580.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0835.0036.61-0.03-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0855.5650.840.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0822.7323.38-0.05-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0872.7369.900.050.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0854.5561.940.010.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0831.8233.76-0.04-0.03
MarylandB100.090.0886.9681.750.070.05
RadfordBSth0.090.0852.3853.610.000.01
RutgersB100.090.0822.7320.68-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.090.0860.8755.900.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.0680.0082.450.060.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0650.0046.870.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0652.3853.800.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.0685.0085.230.080.04
New HampshireAE0.110.0652.6351.510.010.00
PittsburghACC0.120.0680.0070.310.070.02
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0647.6249.34-0.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.110.0633.3332.89-0.04-0.02
PurdueB100.100.0682.6178.230.070.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.0086.110.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0616.6724.28-0.04-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0661.9059.920.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.0654.5553.030.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.0668.1863.240.040.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0636.8437.31-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0661.1158.310.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.0660.0061.320.020.01
HoustonAmer0.110.0672.7368.010.050.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0653.3355.190.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.6247.86-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0669.5768.670.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0657.8961.910.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0618.7533.16-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0629.4138.46-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0626.3236.92-0.05-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0638.1033.39-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0635.0034.92-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0610.5325.36-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0647.6257.24-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0641.1840.27-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0663.6457.320.010.01
TroySB0.050.0620.0023.76-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0663.6459.930.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0640.0049.72-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0675.0071.270.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0665.0068.740.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.9583.030.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0670.0069.350.020.02
SMUAmer0.110.0590.4885.540.090.04
VCUA100.110.0577.2776.770.060.03
ColoradoP120.100.0572.7366.980.050.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0526.0927.82-0.05-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.0561.9058.220.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0552.6352.150.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0527.2732.87-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.100.0552.1754.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0586.3680.670.040.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0566.6760.120.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0525.0029.29-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.0556.5253.440.010.00
IowaB100.050.0581.8279.900.030.03
MichiganB100.090.0572.7367.970.040.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0582.6181.380.030.03
NebraskaB100.000.0552.1751.550.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0568.1863.710.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0578.2671.960.030.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0527.2724.41-0.02-0.03
UCLAP120.090.0556.5253.330.010.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0365.0067.520.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.5552.770.010.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0340.0042.58-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0319.0522.38-0.04-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0341.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0325.0029.52-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0352.6347.730.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0333.3333.55-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0385.7184.560.040.02
DavidsonA100.050.0357.8955.420.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0383.3380.130.040.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0354.5555.310.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0333.3332.69-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.080.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.0029.47-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.670.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.50-0.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0385.7176.020.040.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.95-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0368.7574.720.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0373.6870.400.030.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0381.8278.720.030.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0372.7368.840.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0372.7369.690.020.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0338.1041.23-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.8320.11-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0375.0073.480.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0331.8226.63-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0336.3634.96-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0347.8344.51-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0382.6177.360.000.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.130.010.00
VMISC0.050.0316.6718.98-0.03-0.02