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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:181
Current SOS:181
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:15-7
Expected Conf Record:15-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:196



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Dakota (255.0)SumH71-66W100%0.0
11-16St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A86-64L0%0.0
11-18Rutgers (192.0)AmerA66-51L0%0.0
11-19Elon (162.0)SCN86-85W100%0.0
11-25Georgia St. (76.0)SBN71-79W100%0.0
12-6Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH82-67W100%0.0
12-8Siena (193.0)MAACH93-78W100%0.0
12-11Buffalo (106.0)MACA55-59W100%0.0
12-14St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA67-51L0%0.0
12-16Holy Cross (127.0)PatA73-83W100%0.0
12-21Lamar (344.0)SlndH87-74W100%0.0
12-29Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA87-81L0%0.0
1-4Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA63-67W100%0.0
1-6Marist (250.0)MAACA65-62L0%0.0
1-10Rider (198.0)MAACH94-91W100%0.0
1-12Monmouth (292.0)MAACH87-67W100%0.0
1-17Iona (59.0)MAACA83-85W100%0.0
1-19Monmouth (292.0)MAACA83-82L0%0.0
1-22Niagara (302.0)MAACH87-74W100%0.0
1-26Marist (250.0)MAACH78-65W100%0.0
1-30Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA74-86W100%0.0
2-1Fairfield (289.0)MAACA58-84W100%0.0
2-7Manhattan (60.0)MAACH73-84L0%0.0
2-9Iona (59.0)MAACH91-101L0%0.0
2-14Niagara (302.0)MAACA65-71W100%0.0
2-16Siena (193.0)MAACA88-92W100%0.0
2-20Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH81-88L0%0.0
2-22Fairfield (289.0)MAACH90-78W100%0.0
2-28Rider (198.0)MAACA66-79W100%0.0
3-2Manhattan (60.0)MAACA68-63L0%0.0
3-8Siena (193.0)MAACN71-65W100%0.0
3-9Iona (59.0)MAACN75-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC26.4926.4969.0869.0810.1110.11
IonaMAAC5.755.7568.9768.972.182.18
SienaMAAC5.655.6551.7251.720.190.19
ManhattanMAAC4.314.3176.6776.672.302.30
NiagaraMAAC4.274.2722.5822.58-2.34-2.34
RiderMAAC4.234.2348.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.214.2148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
QuinnipiacMAAC4.204.2065.5265.521.301.30
MonmouthMAAC4.194.1933.3333.33-1.40-1.40
FairfieldMAAC4.194.1923.3323.33-2.23-2.23
MaristMAAC4.184.1837.9337.93-1.01-1.01
St. BonaventureA101.811.8151.6151.610.060.06
BuffaloMAC1.681.6866.6766.670.560.56
ElonSC1.641.6457.1457.140.230.23
Holy CrossPat1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
St. Francis NYNEC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
Georgia St.SB1.591.5976.6776.670.850.85
South DakotaSum1.591.5934.6234.62-0.49-0.49
LamarSlnd1.561.5611.1111.11-1.22-1.22
Notre DameACC1.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
RutgersAmer1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
La SalleA100.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
HartfordAE0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
PennIvy0.200.2028.5728.57-0.08-0.08
PurdueB100.200.2046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.170.173.703.70-0.16-0.16
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Seton HallBE0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
BucknellPat0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
George MasonA100.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
VermontAE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
ArmyPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
LouisvilleAmer0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
George WashingtonA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
LafayettePat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00