Canisius

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	333.0
Current RPI:	333
Expected SOS:	299
Current SOS:	299
Current Record:	5-25
Expected Record:	5-25
Current Conf Record:	1-18
Expected Conf Record:	1-18
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-12
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	322
Expected OOC SOS:	343

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
5-25	333.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	A	82-73	L	0%
11-15	Longwood (332.0)	ind	A	83-87	W	100%
11-17	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	A	95-70	L	0%
11-22	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	94-59	L	0%
12-2	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	H	57-69	L	0%
12-4	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	H	59-68	L	0%
12-8	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	H	55-67	L	0%
12-10	St. Bonaventure (72.0)	A10	A	81-62	L	0%
12-16	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	A	72-67	L	0%
12-18	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	A	80-90	W	100%
12-22	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	H	45-59	L	0%
12-28	Binghamton (344.0)	AE	H	75-66	W	100%
1-1	Fairfield (115.0)	MAAC	A	72-54	L	0%
1-5	St. Peter's (305.0)	MAAC	A	65-61	L	0%
1-7	Loyola MD (77.0)	MAAC	A	77-62	L	0%
1-13	Marist (223.0)	MAAC	H	67-57	W	100%
1-15	St. Peter's (305.0)	MAAC	H	60-74	L	0%
1-19	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	H	56-75	L	0%
1-22	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	A	89-65	L	0%
1-27	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	H	66-78	L	0%
1-29	Loyola MD (77.0)	MAAC	H	52-70	L	0%
2-2	Iona (40.0)	MAAC	A	105-86	L	0%
2-4	Marist (223.0)	MAAC	A	80-69	L	0%
2-9	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	H	66-71	L	0%
2-11	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	H	50-60	L	0%
2-15	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	A	60-57	L	0%
2-18	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	H	73-66	W	100%
2-24	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	A	90-77	L	0%
2-26	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	A	86-75	L	0%
3-2	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	N	80-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Canisius	MAAC	26.45	26.45	16.43	16.43	-17.76	-17.76
Niagara	MAAC	5.97	5.97	36.67	36.67	-1.59	-1.59
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.45	4.45	73.33	73.33	2.08	2.08
Fairfield	MAAC	4.38	4.38	54.84	54.84	0.42	0.42
Siena	MAAC	4.35	4.35	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
Marist	MAAC	4.32	4.32	43.33	43.33	-0.58	-0.58
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.32	4.32	10.34	10.34	-3.43	-3.43
Rider	MAAC	4.32	4.32	36.67	36.67	-1.15	-1.15
Iona	MAAC	4.32	4.32	76.67	76.67	2.30	2.30
Manhattan	MAAC	4.30	4.30	60.00	60.00	0.86	0.86
South Dakota	Sum	3.39	3.39	26.09	26.09	-1.62	-1.62
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.93	1.93	13.79	13.79	-1.40	-1.40
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.88	1.88	63.33	63.33	0.50	0.50
Binghamton	AE	1.86	1.86	6.67	6.67	-1.61	-1.61
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.83	1.83	28.57	28.57	-0.78	-0.78
Buffalo	MAC	1.82	1.82	62.96	62.96	0.47	0.47
James Madison	CAA	1.72	1.72	35.48	35.48	-0.50	-0.50
Longwood	ind	1.70	1.70	23.08	23.08	-0.91	-0.91
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.67	1.67	17.86	17.86	-1.07	-1.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.67	1.67	74.19	74.19	0.81	0.81
Vermont	AE	0.34	0.34	67.65	67.65	0.12	0.12
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.30	0.30	78.12	78.12	0.17	0.17
Hartford	AE	0.29	0.29	29.03	29.03	-0.12	-0.12
New Hampshire	AE	0.26	0.26	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.26	0.26	81.82	81.82	0.16	0.16
Hofstra	CAA	0.24	0.24	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
Fordham	A10	0.22	0.22	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Albany	AE	0.22	0.22	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.19	29.63	29.63	-0.08	-0.08
IUPUI	Sum	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.19	0.19	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.19	0.19	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Southern Utah	Sum	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.19	0.19	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Boston University	AE	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	3.12	3.12	-0.12	-0.12
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	81.25	81.25	0.07	0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	94.12	94.12	0.09	0.09
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02