live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Canisius

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:198.8
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:111
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-966.00.01%
21-1085.70.12%
20-1197.20.42%
19-12115.21.08%
18-13127.12.83%
17-14144.16.33%
16-15160.810.69%
15-16177.815.57%
14-17194.817.22%
13-18211.817.10%
12-19229.413.14%
11-20245.48.54%
10-21260.84.38%
9-22274.31.79%
8-23289.90.62%
7-24298.60.13%
6-25300.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Canisius.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Kentucky (10.0)SECA93-69L0%0.0
11-15Cleveland St. (251.7)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
11-18Duquesne (244.3)A10A77-78W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee Martin (167.9)OVCH69-72L0%0.0
11-23Tennessee St. (96.9)OVCH58-72L0%0.0
11-26Youngstown St. (238.3)HorzA84-90W100%0.0
12-2Manhattan (261.3)MAACA76-77W100%0.0
12-4Monmouth (66.9)MAACA94-88L0%0.0
12-7Boston University (179.7)PatA0-031%-6.0
12-10St. Francis NY (328.9)NECH0-085%12.5
12-12Albany (149.0)AEH0-049%-0.2
12-17Buffalo (134.9)MACN0-035%-4.6
12-22St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10A0-011%-15.0
1-2Siena (144.9)MAACH0-047%-0.8
1-4Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACH0-069%5.9
1-8Iona (105.1)MAACA0-022%-9.5
1-10Fairfield (164.8)MAACA0-032%-5.6
1-14Marist (246.8)MAACH0-074%7.6
1-16Monmouth (66.9)MAACH0-031%-5.9
1-20Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACA0-049%-0.4
1-23Niagara (266.5)MAACA0-047%-0.8
1-28Manhattan (261.3)MAACH0-070%6.4
1-30Rider (198.1)MAACH0-058%2.4
2-4Siena (144.9)MAACA0-028%-7.1
2-6Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACA0-034%-4.8
2-10Niagara (266.5)MAACH0-067%5.4
2-14Iona (105.1)MAACH0-039%-3.2
2-17Rider (198.1)MAACA0-037%-3.9
2-19Marist (246.8)MAACA0-054%1.3
2-24Fairfield (164.8)MAACH0-052%0.7
2-26Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACH0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Canisius's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Canisius's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Canisius.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
CanisiusMAAC28.0726.3647.7345.53-1.28-2.36
NiagaraMAAC0.004.2625.0035.27-0.00-1.25
SienaMAAC0.004.2333.3349.19-0.00-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.354.2357.1450.530.050.04
ManhattanMAAC6.254.2025.0033.19-3.12-1.41
MaristMAAC0.004.2044.4434.50-0.00-1.30
IonaMAAC0.004.1857.1464.190.001.19
MonmouthMAAC6.254.1875.0071.373.121.78
RiderMAAC0.004.1857.1450.680.000.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.354.1728.5737.27-0.15-1.06
FairfieldMAAC0.004.1762.5055.740.000.48
St. BonaventureA100.001.8075.0069.690.000.71
Cleveland St.Horz7.341.7516.6728.61-4.90-0.75
DuquesneA107.481.7544.4440.50-0.83-0.33
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.7512.5026.43-0.00-0.82
AlbanyAE0.001.7442.8661.00-0.000.38
Tennessee MartinOVC7.401.7271.4353.893.170.13
Youngstown St.Horz6.251.7242.8639.44-0.89-0.36
KentuckySEC7.401.6985.7181.635.291.07
BuffaloMAC0.001.6933.3351.57-0.000.05
Boston UniversityPat0.001.6742.8654.56-0.000.15
Tennessee St.OVC6.251.6483.3368.774.170.62
Holy CrossPat0.350.2437.5047.44-0.09-0.01
FordhamA100.000.2450.0041.640.00-0.04
ArmyPat0.000.2242.8650.29-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.350.2270.0070.530.140.09
WagnerNEC0.350.2128.5752.65-0.150.01
BrownIvy0.000.2150.0043.770.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.2122.2226.44-0.00-0.10
VermontAE0.000.2162.5071.400.000.09
DrexelCAA0.350.2150.0041.460.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1975.0050.980.000.00
DetroitHorz0.350.160.0021.30-0.35-0.09
MaineAE0.000.1614.2923.40-0.00-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1616.6739.99-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.350.1655.5643.870.04-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1450.0050.980.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.310.1442.8645.85-0.04-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1485.7175.250.000.07
LafayettePat0.000.1442.8635.40-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.450.1457.1454.200.060.01
OhioMAC0.000.1483.3371.500.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.700.1430.0045.49-0.28-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1362.5052.400.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1320.0035.15-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1377.7871.770.000.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1371.4358.170.000.02
CornellIvy0.350.1328.5730.43-0.15-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.1355.5642.150.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1257.1464.500.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.1137.5048.85-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1142.8644.89-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1137.5037.96-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1157.1453.860.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1185.7177.000.000.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.1162.5052.060.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1144.4438.15-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.1112.5030.11-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.110.0020.72-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.310.1133.3340.37-0.10-0.02
DaytonA100.000.1171.4373.270.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1125.0023.99-0.00-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.1066.6770.400.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1050.0041.700.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1088.8967.470.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6738.87-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0925.0027.74-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0933.3336.67-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0957.1449.640.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0060.950.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0950.0042.770.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0942.8638.35-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.450.0811.1132.47-0.35-0.03
AkronMAC0.390.0871.4368.930.170.03
AmericanPat0.000.0812.5028.64-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0875.0058.720.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0890.0080.060.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0825.0030.02-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.450.0855.5646.770.05-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0862.5062.120.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0842.8643.78-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.390.080.0023.90-0.39-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.390.0862.5060.090.100.02
SyracuseACC0.350.0862.5062.080.090.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0816.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0828.5727.38-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0842.8645.34-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.310.0880.0054.190.190.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0842.8658.24-0.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0877.7872.930.000.04
KansasB120.000.0888.8977.470.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.910.000.05
South CarolinaSEC0.350.08100.0078.180.350.04
Arkansas St.SB0.450.0675.0066.120.220.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0050.170.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.450.0612.5031.01-0.33-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0657.1429.760.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0637.5061.81-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5028.47-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0633.3338.56-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.66-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.390.0637.5047.57-0.10-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.390.0520.0022.88-0.23-0.03
Michigan St.B100.780.0560.0058.780.160.01
MississippiSEC0.390.0575.0047.990.20-0.00
PittsburghACC0.310.0575.0048.980.16-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0042.750.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0522.2246.51-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0562.5054.660.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0092.200.000.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.98-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.030.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0511.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0054.480.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0537.5043.19-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.490.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0557.1456.540.000.01
Penn St.B100.310.0566.6746.170.10-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.500.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0575.0072.930.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0020.21-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0557.1471.170.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1451.810.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.77-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0056.270.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.350.0525.0041.19-0.17-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0020.63-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3331.35-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0520.0060.00-0.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0587.5050.250.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.350.050.0026.22-0.35-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0557.1433.200.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.350.0575.0064.820.170.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0571.4365.470.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0542.8653.80-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.71-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0562.5071.850.000.02
West VirginiaB120.350.0585.7183.250.250.03
WinthropBSth0.350.0550.0071.340.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0044.700.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0312.5033.31-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.450.0387.5075.730.330.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0311.1120.27-0.35-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.450.0333.3332.79-0.15-0.01
UC DavisBW0.450.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.540.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
FIUCUSA0.390.0314.2935.05-0.28-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.390.0328.5738.92-0.17-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.820.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.390.0371.4357.210.170.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0377.7859.940.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
Arizona St.P120.390.0355.5637.870.04-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.390.0325.0055.44-0.200.00
UCLAP120.390.03100.0086.650.390.02