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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:132.6
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:127
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-455.00.01%
23-554.40.11%
22-666.30.66%
21-776.82.71%
20-890.87.91%
19-9104.515.07%
18-10120.220.82%
17-11136.620.55%
16-12153.616.42%
15-13171.89.61%
14-14191.74.25%
13-15212.61.40%
12-16236.70.35%
11-17255.50.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wright St. (113.4)HorzA73-70L0%0.0
11-17Lipscomb (261.8)ASunA62-87W100%0.0
11-22Western Kentucky (153.6)CUSAA63-64W100%0.0
11-24Lipscomb (261.8)ASunH82-77W100%0.0
11-26Denver (187.2)SumH78-57W100%0.0
11-29Ohio (202.2)MACA81-83W100%0.0
12-2Middle Tennessee (197.5)CUSAH63-59W100%0.0
12-9Evansville (75.7)MVCH62-65L0%0.0
12-11Wright St. (113.4)HorzH71-79L0%0.0
12-16VCU (25.9)A10A78-51L0%0.0
12-20Fairfield (247.9)MAACA0-062%3.6
12-28Butler (25.7)BEA0-08%-16.8
1-1Southeast Missouri St. (250.9)OVCH0-079%9.3
1-7SIU Edwardsville (333.8)OVCH0-092%16.8
1-10Eastern Illinois (264.7)OVCA0-060%2.9
1-15Murray St. (162.7)OVCA0-038%-3.6
1-17Austin Peay (305.4)OVCA0-068%5.3
1-22Tennessee Martin (140.8)OVCH0-062%3.7
1-24Tennessee St. (331.4)OVCA0-080%9.8
1-29Jacksonville St. (269.5)OVCH0-090%15.2
1-31Tennessee Tech (201.6)OVCH0-076%8.3
2-5Eastern Kentucky (118.3)OVCA0-025%-7.8
2-7Morehead St. (249.7)OVCA0-051%0.3
2-11Jacksonville St. (269.5)OVCA0-071%6.4
2-14Morehead St. (249.7)OVCH0-078%9.0
2-19Eastern Kentucky (118.3)OVCH0-053%0.9
2-21Tennessee Tech (201.6)OVCA0-049%-0.4
2-28Tennessee St. (331.4)OVCH0-094%18.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC28.7526.3460.0064.265.757.51
Tennessee St.OVC0.564.370.0015.34-0.56-3.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.564.3444.4450.61-0.060.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.2855.5639.240.00-0.92
Morehead St.OVC0.004.2816.6738.16-0.00-1.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.2750.0069.310.001.65
LipscombASun10.003.7628.5741.29-4.29-0.65
Wright St.Horz10.283.6050.0054.390.000.32
Austin PeayOVC0.832.6022.2230.48-0.46-1.02
Murray St.OVC0.812.5355.5661.910.090.60
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.4662.5068.270.000.90
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.4333.3339.25-0.00-0.52
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.4344.4447.78-0.00-0.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.430.0024.02-0.00-1.26
EvansvilleMVC5.861.9175.0070.152.930.77
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.001.9155.5649.390.56-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA5.001.8862.5051.611.250.06
ButlerBE0.001.8280.0071.700.000.79
OhioMAC5.281.8250.0039.190.00-0.39
DenverSum5.001.7950.0056.200.000.22
FairfieldMAAC0.001.7944.4440.14-0.00-0.35
VCUA105.001.7966.6770.501.670.73
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.3254.5544.640.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.3050.0057.210.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2533.3349.72-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2333.3343.01-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2336.3633.52-0.00-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2380.0070.970.000.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2271.4364.140.000.06
Green BayHorz0.280.2275.0077.200.140.12
MarshallCUSA0.000.2225.0038.65-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.500.2060.0064.800.100.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2010.0018.22-0.00-0.13
Bowling GreenMAC0.780.1975.0067.160.390.07
ChattanoogaSC0.250.1940.0049.77-0.05-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1950.0052.110.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1930.0031.32-0.00-0.07
FIUCUSA0.500.1944.4450.85-0.060.00
TennesseeSEC0.250.1855.5645.620.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.360.1777.7869.590.200.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1633.3334.61-0.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.780.1630.0028.56-0.31-0.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1620.0045.49-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1618.1821.03-0.00-0.09
IUPUISum0.280.1620.0027.11-0.17-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.250.1666.6764.740.080.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1633.3333.03-0.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.250.1577.7868.980.140.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1572.7367.410.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.1530.0036.94-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.1410.0027.15-0.00-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.560.1375.0060.310.280.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.130.0014.67-0.23-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1337.5040.37-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1318.1827.79-0.00-0.06
DetroitHorz0.000.1344.4448.82-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1345.4543.81-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0028.67-0.00-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.1390.0084.460.000.09
HamptonMEAC0.000.1245.4550.81-0.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.250.1290.0081.790.200.08
George MasonA100.000.1225.0026.38-0.00-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.480.1290.0078.440.380.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1236.3647.58-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.250.1275.0051.760.130.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1085.7170.370.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1044.4431.92-0.00-0.04
IPFWSum0.000.1057.1456.380.000.01
MississippiSEC0.280.1070.0052.530.110.00
AkronMAC0.250.1060.0056.170.050.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0017.19-0.00-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.008.14-0.00-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0063.510.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0920.0020.26-0.00-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0085.970.000.07
Saint LouisA100.000.0960.0033.900.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0933.3363.11-0.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0955.5640.440.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0942.8626.94-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0927.2738.75-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6766.380.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0960.0049.590.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.250.09100.0085.760.250.06
XavierBE0.000.0980.0070.970.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0966.6759.590.000.02
VillanovaBE0.250.09100.0081.870.250.06
ColoradoP120.560.0766.6757.620.190.01
PrincetonIvy0.560.0733.3340.96-0.19-0.01
TexasB120.560.0790.0081.650.440.04
Chicago St.WAC0.280.070.0011.34-0.28-0.05
PortlandWCC0.000.0766.6748.270.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0728.5737.33-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0777.7870.500.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6768.290.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0771.4363.270.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0059.530.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0095.110.000.06
Miami FLACC0.000.0781.8266.320.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0742.8633.87-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0720.0029.91-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0714.2929.35-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0785.7161.910.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.360.060.0028.56-0.36-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.650.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.500.0636.3638.89-0.14-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.500.0642.8649.88-0.07-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.090.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.00-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0660.0036.070.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.500.0620.0041.08-0.30-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.250.060.0034.05-0.25-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.0638.4644.31-0.06-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.360.0675.0065.210.180.02
ToledoMAC0.250.0660.0058.890.050.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.96-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.71-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.320.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.71-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.580.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0064.750.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.70-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.960.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0675.0059.930.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.240.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.60-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.260.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5757.14-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.51-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6755.450.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.60-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.920.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.450.0625.0028.59-0.23-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.11-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0049.970.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.81-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.540.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.57-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5661.600.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.800.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.84-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.65-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.59-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.32-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4449.63-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3348.90-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3327.57-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5076.810.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.020.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.500.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.270.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.320.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8964.830.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0425.0044.56-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0450.0041.650.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.360.0337.5034.46-0.09-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.360.0318.1838.45-0.23-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.98-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1831.71-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.51-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.09-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6744.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.650.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.800.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.010.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.52-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4347.640.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.120.000.01
MinnesotaB100.280.0380.0066.580.170.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.23-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.530.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.280.0333.3355.14-0.090.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.50-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5746.99-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.230.03100.0078.490.230.02
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0330.0029.59-0.11-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.230.0312.5032.33-0.17-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.230.0320.0046.54-0.14-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.0362.5057.080.060.00
San FranciscoWCC0.280.0350.0053.240.000.00
StanfordP120.230.0375.0057.490.110.00
WyomingMWC0.230.0377.7873.540.130.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.78-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4435.91-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.30-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.49-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.560.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0336.3647.56-0.07-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.250.0388.8963.880.190.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0073.610.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.250.030.0035.39-0.25-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.790.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.970.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.22-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.06-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.340.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.930.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.27-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.280.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0072.100.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.370.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.320.000.01
OregonP120.250.0366.6757.860.080.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.430.000.01