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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:98.0
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:170
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:98



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1198.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Marquette (110.0)BEA80-83W100%0.0
11-16Arizona St. (99.0)P12A83-74L0%0.0
11-18Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAH90-85W100%0.0
11-21Evansville (93.0)MVCA93-88L0%0.0
11-23South Alabama (240.0)SBN85-98W100%0.0
11-24Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA55-80W100%0.0
11-28BYU (76.0)WCCA95-81L0%0.0
12-1Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH105-89W100%0.0
12-3Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA61-57L0%0.0
12-7Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA84-93W100%0.0
12-17Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA83-62L0%0.0
12-19Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA67-65L0%0.0
12-28Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH85-81W100%0.0
12-31Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA82-92W100%0.0
1-6SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA77-85W100%0.0
1-9Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH85-59W100%0.0
1-14Murray St. (169.0)OVCH81-73W100%0.0
1-16Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH76-58W100%0.0
1-21Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA72-82W100%0.0
1-24Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH103-95W100%0.0
1-28Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA63-72W100%0.0
1-30Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA89-79L0%0.0
2-4Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH73-67W100%0.0
2-6Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH78-88L0%0.0
2-10Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH81-73W100%0.0
2-13Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA78-77L0%0.0
2-18Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA78-86W100%0.0
2-20Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH95-86W100%0.0
2-28Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA87-72L0%0.0
3-4Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH96-97L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.2826.2868.9468.949.969.96
Tennessee St.OVC4.154.1565.3865.381.281.28
Austin PeayOVC4.114.1148.3948.39-0.13-0.13
Tennessee TechOVC4.094.0961.5461.540.940.94
Morehead St.OVC4.054.0559.2659.260.750.75
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.024.0246.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Jacksonville St.OVC3.993.9922.2222.22-2.22-2.22
LipscombASun3.563.5634.4834.48-1.10-1.10
ValparaisoHorz3.393.3982.1482.142.182.18
Murray St.OVC2.432.4353.5753.570.170.17
Tennessee MartinOVC2.402.4056.6756.670.320.32
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.322.3240.7440.74-0.43-0.43
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.312.3111.5411.54-1.78-1.78
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.292.2922.2222.22-1.27-1.27
Kennesaw St.ASun1.861.8632.1432.14-0.66-0.66
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.831.8370.0070.000.730.73
Cleveland St.Horz1.781.7820.6920.69-1.04-1.04
Western KentuckyCUSA1.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
EvansvilleMVC1.731.7371.8871.880.760.76
Arizona St.P121.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
South AlabamaSB1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
MarquetteBE1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
BYUWCC1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Green BayHorz0.370.3763.6463.640.100.10
StetsonASun0.360.3626.6726.67-0.17-0.17
Northern KentuckyHorz0.280.2825.0025.00-0.14-0.14
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.2858.0658.060.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.280.2842.8642.86-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.280.2851.5251.520.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
North FloridaASun0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.200.2084.3884.380.140.14
Illinois St.MVC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1955.1755.170.020.02
DetroitHorz0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.190.1980.6580.650.120.12
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1710.7110.71-0.13-0.13
OaklandHorz0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
NJITASun0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1362.8662.860.030.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
CreightonBE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01