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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:61.0
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:189
Current Record:21-6
Expected Record:21-6
Current Conf Record:15-2
Expected Conf Record:15-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-661.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA80-66L0%0.0
11-19Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH90-69W100%0.0
11-21Florida (10.0)SECN78-61L0%0.0
11-25Rhode Island (31.0)A10A82-73L0%0.0
11-29Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH64-62W100%0.0
12-3Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA77-85W100%0.0
12-6Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA76-78W100%0.0
12-14Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH66-79L0%0.0
12-19Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA56-62W100%0.0
12-22Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH88-61W100%0.0
12-31Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA77-82W100%0.0
1-5Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH83-67W100%0.0
1-7Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH87-75W100%0.0
1-12Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA78-84W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA59-72W100%0.0
1-19Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH77-60W100%0.0
1-21Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH82-70W100%0.0
1-25Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA64-77W100%0.0
1-28Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA76-93W100%0.0
1-30SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH92-69W100%0.0
2-2Murray St. (230.0)OVCA69-81W100%0.0
2-9Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA53-66W100%0.0
2-11Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA83-70L0%0.0
2-16Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH76-72W100%0.0
2-18Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH89-73W100%0.0
2-25Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH68-63W100%0.0
3-3Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH59-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.3226.3278.6378.6315.0715.07
Jacksonville St.OVC6.356.3558.6258.621.091.09
Tennessee TechOVC4.614.6132.1432.14-1.65-1.65
Morehead St.OVC4.604.6046.1546.15-0.35-0.35
Tennessee St.OVC4.604.6057.6957.690.710.71
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.484.4837.0437.04-1.16-1.16
LipscombASun4.064.0660.7160.710.870.87
Murray St.OVC2.702.7046.6746.67-0.18-0.18
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.672.6743.3343.33-0.36-0.36
Tennessee MartinOVC2.662.6663.3363.330.710.71
Austin PeayOVC2.602.6033.3333.33-0.87-0.87
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.512.5118.5218.52-1.58-1.58
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.512.5146.1546.15-0.19-0.19
Western KentuckyCUSA2.092.0948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.032.0387.5087.501.521.52
VanderbiltSEC2.032.0354.5554.550.180.18
Cleveland St.Horz1.941.9427.5927.59-0.87-0.87
FloridaSEC1.931.9374.1974.190.940.94
MilwaukeeHorz1.911.9130.3030.30-0.75-0.75
PepperdineWCC1.851.8527.5927.59-0.83-0.83
Rhode IslandA101.851.8571.8871.880.810.81
Northern KentuckyHorz0.310.3168.7568.750.120.12
MarshallCUSA0.270.2755.8855.880.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.210.2146.4346.43-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.210.2146.4346.43-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
MissouriSEC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Green BayHorz0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
ArkansasSEC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
OhioMAC0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.120.1277.1477.140.070.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
DaytonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
IUPUISum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.090.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
FordhamA100.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
TCUB120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00