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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:106.9
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:158
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-331.00.03%
23-434.80.33%
22-543.81.10%
21-654.13.76%
20-765.79.32%
19-879.215.27%
18-994.720.08%
17-10110.718.38%
16-11129.315.23%
15-12148.69.06%
14-13170.44.65%
13-14191.71.97%
12-15215.10.61%
11-16231.80.12%
10-17256.80.04%
9-18277.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Vanderbilt (79.2)SECA80-66L0%0.0
11-19Western Kentucky (249.3)CUSAH90-69W100%0.0
11-21Florida (9.5)SECA78-61L0%0.0
11-25Rhode Island (37.3)A10A82-73L0%0.0
11-29Lipscomb (293.7)ASunH64-62W100%0.0
12-3Pepperdine (195.3)WCCA77-85W100%0.0
12-6Lipscomb (293.7)ASunA0-072%7.1
12-14Middle Tennessee (51.2)CUSAH0-048%-0.6
12-17Green Bay (148.5)HorzA0-051%0.2
12-19Milwaukee (255.6)HorzA0-072%7.0
12-22Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzH0-086%13.2
12-31Austin Peay (231.2)OVCA0-070%6.2
1-5Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCH0-080%9.9
1-7Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCH0-086%13.0
1-12Morehead St. (225.6)OVCA0-063%3.9
1-14Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCA0-055%1.6
1-19Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH0-079%9.7
1-21Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH0-090%15.1
1-25Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA0-060%3.1
1-28Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCA0-042%-2.4
1-30SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCH0-086%12.8
2-2Murray St. (137.0)OVCA0-043%-2.2
2-9Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCA0-061%3.5
2-11Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCA0-077%8.8
2-16Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCH0-074%7.9
2-18Morehead St. (225.6)OVCH0-080%10.2
2-25Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCH0-063%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC28.2026.2759.0968.525.139.73
Tennessee TechOVC0.524.5625.0028.33-0.26-1.98
Morehead St.OVC0.524.5516.6739.38-0.35-0.97
Tennessee St.OVC1.044.5585.7171.850.741.99
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.524.4650.0052.010.000.18
Jacksonville St.OVC0.524.4650.0047.640.00-0.21
LipscombASun8.334.0714.2934.52-5.95-1.26
Austin PeayOVC0.002.6133.3336.98-0.00-0.68
Murray St.OVC0.002.5750.0061.380.000.59
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.5575.0055.900.000.30
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.5450.0043.010.00-0.36
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.5142.8639.55-0.00-0.53
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.5157.1450.480.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA8.332.0742.8636.26-1.19-0.57
Green BayHorz0.002.0442.8652.04-0.000.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.0487.5077.060.001.11
VanderbiltSEC8.332.0142.8644.45-1.19-0.22
Cleveland St.Horz0.002.0128.5732.08-0.00-0.72
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.9828.5732.78-0.00-0.68
FloridaSEC8.331.9185.7174.425.950.93
PepperdineWCC8.331.8550.0034.420.00-0.58
Rhode IslandA108.331.8557.1468.071.190.67
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.3657.1453.990.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.2571.4354.860.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.250.0021.22-0.00-0.15
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2357.1459.280.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2242.8645.44-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.2262.5051.790.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.520.2285.7174.990.370.11
TennesseeSEC0.000.2240.0041.12-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2025.0030.23-0.00-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.000.2044.4441.30-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.520.1957.1442.530.07-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1985.7177.150.000.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1942.8638.17-0.00-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.1887.5082.800.000.12
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1742.8644.71-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.1728.5728.24-0.00-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.520.1612.5033.65-0.39-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.520.1633.3332.35-0.17-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.520.1657.1471.940.070.07
North FloridaASun0.520.1612.5034.79-0.39-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.160.0013.46-0.00-0.12
Central MichiganMAC0.600.1671.4356.250.260.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1616.6730.34-0.00-0.06
OhioMAC0.000.1683.3371.480.000.07
MississippiSEC0.000.1675.0048.500.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.1585.7166.190.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0016.68-0.00-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1337.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1312.5023.75-0.00-0.07
NJITASun0.000.1350.0049.780.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1360.0058.590.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1362.5052.330.000.01
DukeACC0.520.1388.8978.400.410.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1375.0048.030.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.490.000.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1285.7157.450.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1271.4368.050.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.1250.0059.920.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1271.4351.460.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1012.5030.39-0.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.1075.0075.340.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1083.3379.850.000.06
IndianaB100.000.1087.5074.490.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1028.5723.78-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1057.1449.130.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer1.040.1087.5082.360.780.06
FordhamA100.520.1050.0041.310.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1075.0066.370.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1037.5051.64-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.1042.8630.92-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.1042.8646.14-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0944.4442.03-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0060.620.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.100.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0971.4373.040.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.520.09100.0091.920.520.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.520.090.0035.95-0.52-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.330.000.07
ToledoMAC0.000.0937.5047.91-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA101.120.0971.4370.390.480.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0957.1452.030.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0078.850.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0966.6766.180.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0771.4355.160.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0775.0051.040.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0775.0049.180.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.19-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0742.8627.96-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.520.0716.6739.78-0.35-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0771.4370.210.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.520.0757.1450.420.070.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0771.4357.970.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.760.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.77-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.010.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.15-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.590.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0655.5658.610.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.520.0675.0066.410.260.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.600.0666.6761.330.200.01
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0666.6755.540.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3330.44-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.790.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.600.0342.8641.51-0.09-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.600.0340.0043.41-0.12-0.00
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.600.0316.6749.65-0.40-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
BrownIvy0.520.0355.5646.970.06-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.520.030.0020.55-0.52-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
MaristMAAC0.520.0344.4434.65-0.06-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.520.0375.0056.590.260.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.520.0366.6766.340.170.01
ButlerBE0.520.03100.0074.440.520.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
MercerSC0.520.0342.8647.76-0.07-0.00
Miami FLACC0.520.0375.0066.100.260.01
MinnesotaB100.520.0387.5068.020.390.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.520.030.0020.75-0.52-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.350.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.520.0371.4354.560.220.00
UNLVMWC0.520.0362.5043.800.13-0.00
WashingtonP120.520.0357.1452.370.070.00