live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:81.5
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:200
Current Record:17-8
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:10-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:108



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-864.110.72%
20-973.433.08%
19-1084.137.21%
18-1197.716.23%
17-12114.92.75%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Marquette (117.6)BEA80-83W100%0.0
11-16Arizona St. (71.2)P12A83-74L0%0.0
11-18Western Kentucky (179.4)CUSAH90-85W100%0.0
11-21Evansville (89.8)MVCA93-88L0%0.0
11-23South Alabama (250.5)SBN85-98W100%0.0
11-24Kennesaw St. (282.6)ASunA55-80W100%0.0
11-28BYU (69.9)WCCA95-81L0%0.0
12-1Lipscomb (267.3)ASunH105-89W100%0.0
12-3Valparaiso (36.3)HorzA61-57L0%0.0
12-7Lipscomb (267.3)ASunA84-93W100%0.0
12-17Middle Tennessee (86.1)CUSAA83-62L0%0.0
12-19Cleveland St. (273.0)HorzA67-65L0%0.0
12-28Valparaiso (36.3)HorzH85-81W100%0.0
12-31Southeast Missouri St. (333.6)OVCA82-92W100%0.0
1-6SIU Edwardsville (318.9)OVCA77-85W100%0.0
1-9Eastern Illinois (264.5)OVCH85-59W100%0.0
1-14Murray St. (180.5)OVCH81-73W100%0.0
1-16Austin Peay (230.5)OVCH76-58W100%0.0
1-21Tennessee Martin (239.0)OVCA72-82W100%0.0
1-24Tennessee St. (148.9)OVCH103-95W100%0.0
1-28Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCA63-72W100%0.0
1-30Tennessee Tech (110.1)OVCA89-79L0%0.0
2-4Morehead St. (153.3)OVCH73-67W100%0.0
2-6Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCH78-88L0%0.0
2-10Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCH81-73W100%0.0
2-13Morehead St. (153.3)OVCA0-044%-1.5
2-18Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCA0-061%3.0
2-20Tennessee Tech (110.1)OVCH0-074%7.0
2-27Tennessee St. (148.9)OVCA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.3026.3074.3173.4712.7912.35
Tennessee St.OVC2.634.2471.4368.521.131.57
Tennessee TechOVC2.594.1863.6464.450.711.21
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.564.1748.0047.88-0.10-0.18
Jacksonville St.OVC4.424.1326.0925.95-2.12-1.99
Morehead St.OVC2.504.1254.5555.490.230.45
LipscombASun4.173.6730.4332.75-1.63-1.26
ValparaisoHorz4.043.5185.7185.482.892.49
Austin PeayOVC2.592.4041.6744.38-0.43-0.27
Murray St.OVC2.592.4050.0052.860.000.14
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.542.3713.6415.85-1.85-1.62
Tennessee MartinOVC2.462.3552.1752.300.110.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.512.3417.3920.21-1.63-1.40
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.502.3440.9142.64-0.45-0.34
Kennesaw St.ASun2.171.9326.0927.36-1.04-0.88
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.181.9166.6766.530.730.63
Western KentuckyCUSA2.081.8447.6247.72-0.10-0.08
Cleveland St.Horz2.091.8418.1820.02-1.33-1.11
EvansvilleMVC2.091.7970.8372.150.870.79
Arizona St.P122.081.7854.1752.080.170.07
South AlabamaSB2.051.7538.1037.59-0.49-0.44
MarquetteBE2.041.7566.6759.820.680.34
BYUWCC2.001.7266.6769.230.670.66
StetsonASun0.250.3422.7327.37-0.14-0.15
Northern KentuckyHorz0.350.3131.8235.12-0.13-0.09
Green BayHorz0.260.3056.5257.690.030.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.300.3060.8762.470.060.07
MarshallCUSA0.220.2750.0051.150.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.280.2447.8348.57-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.250.2426.0927.89-0.12-0.11
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2256.0054.080.030.02
ChattanoogaSC0.250.2183.3383.710.160.14
Wright St.Horz0.170.2154.1753.810.010.02
North FloridaASun0.200.2162.5064.110.050.06
DetroitHorz0.220.2145.4543.88-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1960.8760.240.030.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.1836.8442.87-0.07-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1850.0052.880.000.01
NJITASun0.240.1856.0055.640.030.02
UABCUSA0.170.1883.3379.820.110.11
USC UpstateASun0.240.1821.7422.42-0.14-0.10
Indiana St.MVC0.260.1850.0049.490.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.260.189.5210.67-0.21-0.14
OaklandHorz0.170.1865.3865.500.050.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.220.1830.4332.24-0.09-0.06
IndianaB100.170.1680.0075.690.100.08
Southern MissCUSA0.090.1530.0031.76-0.04-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1573.0872.610.080.07
IPFWSum0.210.1570.8368.650.090.06
SamfordSC0.210.1540.0041.68-0.04-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.170.1560.8757.170.040.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.200.1541.6741.18-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.210.1537.5037.41-0.05-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.210.154.357.71-0.19-0.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1533.3332.04-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.130.1234.7832.39-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.120.1234.7832.89-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.0022.24-0.07-0.07
FIUCUSA0.130.1239.1342.98-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1240.9138.83-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1247.6249.39-0.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0940.0040.34-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0965.2263.630.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0950.0052.940.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0915.0018.12-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.080.0979.1778.890.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0950.0054.220.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.120.0960.8755.980.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0937.5042.32-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.140.0955.0053.660.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0958.3363.160.020.02
RiceCUSA0.140.0927.2728.15-0.06-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.120.0958.3360.910.020.02
AkronMAC0.120.0982.6181.130.080.06
DenverSum0.130.0952.0049.300.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.0927.2726.46-0.05-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.130.0956.0055.750.020.01
TroySB0.090.0922.7324.37-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.130.0938.4638.50-0.03-0.02
LSUSEC0.130.0962.5059.070.030.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0979.1778.100.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.0928.5733.29-0.05-0.03
OregonP120.130.0979.1777.220.070.05
Oregon St.P120.130.0963.6458.770.030.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.8323.28-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0945.8343.78-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0970.8368.990.030.03
USCP120.120.0975.0071.140.060.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0956.0055.450.010.01
XavierBE0.130.0987.5081.840.090.05
KentuckySEC0.080.0975.0072.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.120.0872.0069.130.050.03
CreightonBE0.040.0864.0062.070.010.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.040.0661.9058.180.010.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0670.8367.980.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0633.3335.19-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0665.2268.610.010.02
PittsburghACC0.040.0672.7367.600.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0626.9228.60-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.120.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0631.8234.54-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0631.5832.03-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0650.0045.860.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0614.2915.47-0.06-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.080.0666.6769.760.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0672.7370.510.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1776.000.050.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0631.8232.47-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0673.9174.640.040.03
ToledoMAC0.090.0660.8762.070.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0654.1754.210.010.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0613.0412.96-0.07-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0625.0028.14-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0686.3684.240.070.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0642.8641.32-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0660.8760.730.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0660.0062.260.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0645.4549.06-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0648.0048.59-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.080.0673.6875.880.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0686.9680.430.060.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0676.1972.410.040.03
Texas St.SB0.050.0640.0038.87-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.340.020.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0652.0048.910.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.080.0666.6763.790.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0048.970.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.040.0612.0011.95-0.03-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0614.2920.63-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.040.0679.1777.510.020.03
LongwoodBSth0.040.0621.7424.59-0.02-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0623.8125.99-0.04-0.03
PortlandWCC0.040.0638.4638.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0681.8281.780.050.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0630.4328.20-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0638.1037.68-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0652.1754.140.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0614.2914.92-0.03-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0677.2773.930.020.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0673.9176.700.040.03
ColoradoP120.040.0670.8365.570.020.02
UtahP120.040.0670.8368.530.020.02
ArizonaP120.040.0680.0078.730.020.03
CaliforniaP120.040.0666.6764.780.010.02
DePaulBE0.040.0633.3334.02-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0656.0052.860.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0670.8368.090.030.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0625.0023.43-0.04-0.03
StanfordP120.040.0647.6244.07-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.040.0654.1752.980.000.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0687.5086.850.030.04
WashingtonP120.080.0662.5060.140.020.01
Washington St.P120.080.0634.7831.64-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.040.0387.5083.730.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0359.0955.160.010.00
MemphisAmer0.040.0358.3359.310.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0362.5058.940.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0358.3358.580.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.24-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.44-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.040.0331.8232.07-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.040.0350.0050.080.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0383.3382.090.030.02
MercerSC0.040.0366.6767.110.010.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0364.0062.090.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.040.0330.0035.92-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.030.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.13-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0372.0071.330.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.710.010.01
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.680.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.76-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0341.6742.39-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.040.0338.4641.36-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
Texas TechB120.040.0360.8755.310.010.00
UMKCWAC0.040.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.970.010.01
WoffordSC0.040.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0363.6461.560.010.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0347.8351.93-0.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.710.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0343.4850.67-0.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.040.0369.5770.020.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0347.6249.27-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.95-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0366.6767.660.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.890.00-0.00
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.17-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0323.8125.48-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0340.0045.19-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0323.8122.85-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0372.2275.710.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.350.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.080.000.00
WisconsinB100.040.0362.5056.990.010.00