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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:81.0
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:179
Current SOS:179
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-981.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Washington (71.0)P12A86-82L0%0.0
11-13Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH69-60W100%0.0
11-16Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAA63-69W100%0.0
11-18Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH93-88W100%0.0
11-19Seattle (165.0)WACH90-77W100%0.0
11-22Providence (32.0)BEA66-65L0%0.0
11-27Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH66-74L0%0.0
11-29TCU (26.0)B12A87-76L0%0.0
12-2Green Bay (303.0)HorzH86-75W100%0.0
12-4Lipscomb (101.0)ASunA69-54L0%0.0
12-13Milwaukee (231.0)HorzH82-63W100%0.0
12-16Pepperdine (317.0)WCCH79-62W100%0.0
12-19Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAA72-75W100%0.0
12-28Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA72-94W100%0.0
12-30Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCA58-65W100%0.0
1-4Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH80-67W100%0.0
1-6Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH60-64L0%0.0
1-11SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCA61-76W100%0.0
1-13Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCA66-75W100%0.0
1-18Murray St. (48.0)OVCH79-72W100%0.0
1-20Austin Peay (164.0)OVCH83-59W100%0.0
1-25Eastern Illinois (262.0)OVCH81-59W100%0.0
1-27SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCH83-72W100%0.0
2-1Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCA63-98W100%0.0
2-3Morehead St. (292.0)OVCA73-83W100%0.0
2-8Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCA64-56L0%0.0
2-10Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCA70-75W100%0.0
2-15Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCH84-73W100%0.0
2-17Morehead St. (292.0)OVCH108-65W100%0.0
2-22Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA78-67L0%0.0
2-24Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCH84-59W100%0.0
3-2Austin Peay (164.0)OVCN79-94W100%0.0
3-3Murray St. (48.0)OVCN68-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.3526.3574.8374.8313.0913.09
Tennessee TechOVC3.983.9858.6258.620.690.69
Tennessee St.OVC3.933.9346.1546.15-0.30-0.30
Jacksonville St.OVC3.913.9160.0060.000.780.78
Austin PeayOVC3.903.9057.1457.140.560.56
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.883.8837.0437.04-1.01-1.01
Murray St.OVC3.873.8785.1985.192.722.72
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.813.8132.1432.14-1.36-1.36
Morehead St.OVC3.803.8024.0024.00-1.97-1.97
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.783.7833.3333.33-1.26-1.26
LipscombASun3.193.1966.6766.671.061.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.352.3542.8642.86-0.34-0.34
Tennessee MartinOVC2.352.3528.5728.57-1.01-1.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.691.6979.3179.310.990.99
Western KentuckyCUSA1.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
VanderbiltSEC1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Green BayHorz1.621.6234.4834.48-0.50-0.50
TCUB121.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
ProvidenceBE1.571.5760.6160.610.330.33
MilwaukeeHorz1.571.5750.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP121.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
Houston BaptistSlnd1.561.5611.1111.11-1.21-1.21
SeattleWAC1.541.5458.6258.620.270.27
PepperdineWCC1.521.5216.6716.67-1.01-1.01
IUPUIHorz0.260.2632.1432.14-0.09-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2628.5728.57-0.11-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.250.2569.7069.700.100.10
JacksonvilleASun0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.230.2328.5728.57-0.10-0.10
DetroitHorz0.230.2320.0020.00-0.14-0.14
Wright St.Horz0.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
PurdueB100.180.1882.3582.350.120.12
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
TexasB120.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1344.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.130.1379.4179.410.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.090.09
Kansas St.B120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
UABCUSA0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1032.3532.35-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.070.07
PortlandWCC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
DePaulBE0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01