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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:21.0
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:87
Current Record:24-6
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:16-2
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:2



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-621.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Lipscomb (237.0)ASunA60-89W100%0.0
11-18Stanford (77.0)P12A62-70W100%0.0
11-23Northeastern (159.0)CAAN71-74L0%0.0
11-24Oral Roberts (151.0)SlndN67-70W100%0.0
12-1Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10A75-65L0%0.0
12-4Lipscomb (237.0)ASunH100-66W100%0.0
12-13Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBH64-49W100%0.0
12-15Kansas (5.0)B12A89-60L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (62.0)SumH76-49W100%0.0
12-28Boston University (148.0)AEN48-64W100%0.0
12-29Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA66-63L0%0.0
1-3Jacksonville St. (142.0)OVCA62-73W100%0.0
1-5Tennessee Tech (242.0)OVCA52-83W100%0.0
1-10Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)OVCH107-72W100%0.0
1-12Tennessee Martin (312.0)OVCH90-53W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Kentucky (70.0)OVCH83-76W100%0.0
1-19Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCH78-66W100%0.0
1-24Morehead St. (172.0)OVCA63-64W100%0.0
1-26Eastern Kentucky (70.0)OVCA74-85W100%0.0
1-31Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH93-74W100%0.0
2-2Tennessee Tech (242.0)OVCH74-52W100%0.0
2-7Murray St. (110.0)OVCA79-74L0%0.0
2-9Austin Peay (319.0)OVCA65-78W100%0.0
2-14Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCA80-69L0%0.0
2-20Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCA49-80W100%0.0
2-23Ohio (67.0)MACH81-62W100%0.0
2-27SIU Edwardsville (304.0)OVCH73-43W100%0.0
3-2Jacksonville St. (142.0)OVCH78-71W100%0.0
3-8Tennessee St. (105.0)OVCH82-73W100%0.0
3-9Murray St. (110.0)OVCH70-68W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.3626.3684.3884.3818.1218.12
Tennessee St.OVC5.785.7855.5655.560.640.64
Morehead St.OVC4.184.1844.8344.83-0.43-0.43
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.154.1575.8675.862.142.14
Tennessee TechOVC4.104.1040.0040.00-0.82-0.82
Murray St.OVC4.084.0866.6766.671.361.36
Jacksonville St.OVC4.044.0462.5062.501.011.01
LipscombASun3.513.5140.7440.74-0.65-0.65
Tennessee MartinOVC2.442.4425.9325.93-1.18-1.18
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.442.4450.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC2.392.3921.4321.43-1.37-1.37
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.362.3636.6736.67-0.63-0.63
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.322.3229.1729.17-0.97-0.97
South Dakota St.Sum1.811.8173.3373.330.840.84
Middle TennesseeSB1.781.7887.5087.501.331.33
NortheasternCAA1.701.7061.2961.290.380.38
KansasB121.691.6984.8584.851.181.18
Boston UniversityAE1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
Central FloridaCUSA1.691.6960.7160.710.360.36
OhioMAC1.671.6775.0075.000.830.83
Oral RobertsSlnd1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
StanfordP121.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Virginia CommonwealthA101.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
MemphisCUSA0.250.2588.2488.240.190.19
East Tennessee St.ASun0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2010.0010.00-0.16-0.16
South Carolina UpstateASun0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.190.1969.7069.700.080.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
MercerASun0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
St. LouisA100.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
MarshallCUSA0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
Western KentuckySB0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1571.4371.430.060.06
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
MinnesotaB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
DrexelCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
OaklandSum0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
UABCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
South DakotaSum0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
George MasonCAA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
AkronMAC0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
MassachusettsA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
MaineAE0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
High PointBSth0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LafayettePat0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
TroySB0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.GWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0653.8553.850.000.00
HartfordAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0585.1985.190.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
XavierA100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00