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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:82.3
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:165
Current Record:15-6
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-662.911.40%
24-771.429.49%
23-882.231.76%
22-996.118.57%
21-10111.57.04%
20-11129.81.55%
19-12147.60.17%
18-13168.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Washington (76.6)P12A86-82L0%0.0
11-13Vanderbilt (143.0)SECH69-60W100%0.0
11-16Middle Tennessee (32.7)CUSAA63-69W100%0.0
11-18Houston Baptist (334.4)SlndH93-88W100%0.0
11-19Seattle (199.6)WACH90-77W100%0.0
11-22Providence (44.5)BEA66-65L0%0.0
11-27Lipscomb (133.1)ASunH66-74L0%0.0
11-29TCU (28.0)B12A87-76L0%0.0
12-2Green Bay (325.1)HorzH86-75W100%0.0
12-4Lipscomb (133.1)ASunA69-54L0%0.0
12-13Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH82-63W100%0.0
12-16Pepperdine (307.7)WCCH79-62W100%0.0
12-19Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA72-75W100%0.0
12-28Southeast Missouri St. (243.3)OVCA72-94W100%0.0
12-30Tennessee Martin (301.8)OVCA58-65W100%0.0
1-4Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCH80-67W100%0.0
1-6Jacksonville St. (151.6)OVCH60-64L0%0.0
1-11SIU Edwardsville (271.7)OVCA61-76W100%0.0
1-13Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCA66-75W100%0.0
1-18Murray St. (87.3)OVCH79-72W100%0.0
1-20Austin Peay (214.6)OVCH83-59W100%0.0
1-25Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCH0-091%14.7
1-27SIU Edwardsville (271.7)OVCH0-096%19.3
2-1Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCA0-081%9.6
2-3Morehead St. (262.1)OVCA0-079%8.8
2-8Tennessee St. (211.6)OVCA0-071%6.3
2-10Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCA0-072%6.5
2-15Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCH0-092%16.0
2-17Morehead St. (262.1)OVCH0-092%15.2
2-22Jacksonville St. (151.6)OVCA0-054%1.1
2-24Tennessee St. (211.6)OVCH0-087%12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.4826.3472.6376.4111.9913.91
Tennessee St.OVC0.724.1135.2942.06-0.21-0.65
Tennessee TechOVC2.724.0661.1156.100.600.50
Morehead St.OVC0.644.0223.5329.79-0.34-1.63
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.574.0031.5834.15-0.21-1.27
Jacksonville St.OVC2.523.9868.4267.880.931.42
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.703.9431.2536.27-1.01-1.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.643.9238.8935.03-0.59-1.17
LipscombASun4.823.4046.6755.96-0.320.41
Austin PeayOVC2.892.4647.0647.71-0.17-0.11
Murray St.OVC2.832.4375.0078.871.411.41
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.652.4244.4445.06-0.29-0.24
Tennessee MartinOVC2.652.4227.7832.63-1.18-0.84
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.581.7876.4777.381.360.98
Western KentuckyCUSA2.511.7572.2273.251.120.82
Green BayHorz2.511.7326.3228.97-1.19-0.73
VanderbiltSEC2.581.7238.8936.76-0.57-0.46
TCUB122.441.6972.2264.461.090.49
MilwaukeeHorz2.441.6747.3748.75-0.13-0.04
ProvidenceBE2.511.6768.4259.150.920.31
WashingtonP122.501.6768.4260.150.920.34
Houston BaptistSlnd2.501.666.2520.06-2.19-1.00
SeattleWAC2.441.6461.1156.520.540.21
PepperdineWCC2.381.6111.1118.99-1.85-1.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.320.2916.6724.91-0.22-0.15
IUPUIHorz0.310.2927.7829.83-0.14-0.12
MarshallCUSA0.190.2568.4263.650.070.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.2366.6773.210.040.11
StetsonASun0.260.2133.3336.93-0.09-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2133.3333.77-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.270.2090.4888.370.210.16
Western IllinoisSum0.260.2042.8635.24-0.04-0.06
DetroitHorz0.320.2021.0525.97-0.19-0.10
ChattanoogaSC0.240.1922.2228.59-0.14-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.270.1857.8966.260.040.06
USC UpstateASun0.060.1811.1118.00-0.05-0.11
TexasB120.200.1763.1657.630.050.03
Wright St.Horz0.250.1768.4269.250.090.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.240.1672.2258.920.110.03
Oregon St.P120.060.1657.8950.840.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.350.1552.9452.650.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1545.0049.290.00-0.00
KansasB120.120.1484.2179.750.080.08
Oklahoma St.B120.200.1468.4254.090.070.01
NJITASun0.000.1238.8942.610.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.140.1231.5835.15-0.05-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.1250.0045.870.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1168.4257.740.050.02
TennesseeSEC0.200.1172.2268.930.090.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.1116.6724.26-0.04-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.1155.0052.470.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.1150.0051.380.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.130.110.003.07-0.13-0.11
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1120.0023.34-0.07-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1142.1146.00-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1161.9065.160.030.03
UMKCWAC0.190.1121.0524.75-0.11-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1121.0523.51-0.07-0.06
Saint LouisA100.250.1147.3746.92-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.1166.6763.070.020.03
MarquetteBE0.130.1168.4260.550.050.02
XavierBE0.060.1185.7180.080.040.07
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1162.5058.690.030.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1138.8946.05-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.190.1152.6355.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1111.1117.680.00-0.07
MississippiSEC0.070.1152.6345.860.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.130.1161.1164.130.030.03
CreightonBE0.180.1175.0070.700.090.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1125.0028.01-0.09-0.05
Kansas St.B120.190.1173.6862.720.090.03
AlabamaSEC0.200.0968.4258.980.070.02
BradleyMVC0.130.0965.0057.880.040.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0827.7827.28-0.03-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.0890.4888.960.100.07
AuburnSEC0.140.0889.4777.000.110.05
UTSACUSA0.070.0841.1839.65-0.01-0.02
WisconsinB100.180.0850.0046.300.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.0843.7554.11-0.020.01
FIUCUSA0.130.0835.2935.54-0.04-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.130.0841.1838.47-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.120.0880.9583.260.080.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0827.7829.10-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.130.0845.0048.56-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0823.5325.64-0.03-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0878.9576.750.040.04
CaliforniaP120.120.0836.8431.12-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.120.0847.3741.44-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.120.0861.1147.220.03-0.00
LSUSEC0.130.0861.1153.170.030.01
USCP120.190.0871.4368.280.080.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.0826.6729.04-0.06-0.03
VillanovaBE0.060.0894.7490.310.060.06
Seton HallBE0.060.0875.0067.890.030.03
NavyPat0.140.0660.0055.160.030.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0661.9063.140.000.02
NebraskaB100.070.0666.6759.820.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5656.740.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0658.8262.820.010.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0610.0019.63-0.10-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.200.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0670.0071.230.030.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.890.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0628.5731.26-0.03-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3384.240.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0643.7549.13-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.067.6923.280.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0652.6347.520.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.130.0647.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0641.1839.16-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.0617.6523.86-0.08-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.060.0680.9576.240.040.03
DaytonA100.060.0647.3750.94-0.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0652.6351.690.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0666.6768.540.020.02
IndianaB100.060.0657.8950.710.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0615.7920.91-0.04-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.120.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0645.0044.47-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0663.1657.540.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.0650.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3332.94-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0031.450.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.820.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.480.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0566.6763.200.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0552.6358.590.010.01
VirginiaACC0.130.0594.7486.140.120.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0544.4446.650.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0533.3334.100.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0568.4263.960.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0572.2274.930.030.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0510.5327.29-0.05-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0531.5834.36-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0527.7832.66-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0527.7834.50-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.130.0570.0070.570.050.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.130.040.03
BaylorB120.060.0561.1156.090.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0560.0053.720.010.00
DePaulBE0.060.0542.1134.31-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0573.6871.560.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0568.4254.070.000.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0573.6867.970.030.02
OklahomaB120.130.0577.7867.910.070.02
OregonP120.000.0565.0063.850.000.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0547.3742.16-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0555.0050.370.010.00
Texas TechB120.000.0578.9571.810.000.02
UtahP120.060.0563.1659.710.020.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0584.2178.170.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0522.02-0.04-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.0083.200.050.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.850.000.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0317.6519.30-0.04-0.02
ElonCAA0.060.0352.6351.080.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0378.9574.190.030.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.480.040.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0358.8257.140.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.220.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0370.5969.630.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0356.2557.400.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.230.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0370.0068.300.030.01
OhioMAC0.060.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0312.5025.45-0.05-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.940.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0350.0052.460.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0365.0054.670.020.00
BrownIvy0.060.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.940.000.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0378.9572.990.030.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0363.6457.630.020.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.020.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0385.7182.090.040.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0357.8958.850.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0383.3381.430.040.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.320.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0330.0033.47-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0361.1151.910.010.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0373.6872.380.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0366.6768.730.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0336.8445.21-0.02-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0358.8262.440.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0365.0062.050.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.990.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00