Belmont

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	70.5
Current RPI:	91
Expected SOS:	180
Current SOS:	184
Current Record:	16-7
Expected Record:	22-8
Current Conf Record:	10-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	52.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	59
Expected OOC SOS:	69

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	59.5	30.81%
22-8	69.7	43.02%
21-9	81.9	20.85%
20-10	94.7	4.73%
19-11	109.4	0.53%
18-12	125.2	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Duke (4.2)	ACC	A	77-76	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	97-81	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Towson (304.8)	CAA	N	87-41	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	84-87	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	H	98-52	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	82-78	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	H	75-62	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	65-62	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	78-55	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	A	66-61	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	87-86	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	A	67-77	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	79-74	W	100%	0.0
1-2	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	53-83	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	A	63-75	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	H	74-85	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	84-71	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	95-53	W	100%	0.0
1-21	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	A	79-78	L	0%	0.0
1-23	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	A	70-82	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	85-71	W	100%	0.0
1-30	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	83-69	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	A	58-84	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	H	0-0		95%	17.9
2-11	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	0-0		80%	9.1
2-13	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	A	0-0		88%	13.0
2-18	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	H	0-0		90%	14.2
2-20	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	0-0		91%	14.9
2-23	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	A	0-0		97%	20.7
2-25	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	A	0-0		56%	1.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Belmont	ASun	26.57	26.55	74.75	78.34	13.15	15.05
Lipscomb	ASun	5.10	4.34	42.86	43.36	-0.73	-0.58
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.89	4.31	55.00	56.55	0.29	0.57
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.85	4.26	9.09	12.40	-2.33	-3.20
Mercer	ASun	2.85	4.26	73.91	75.20	1.36	2.15
North Florida	ASun	4.97	4.26	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	4.97	4.25	19.05	23.63	-3.08	-2.24
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.79	4.25	52.38	56.22	0.13	0.53
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.88	4.25	52.38	51.89	0.14	0.16
Stetson	ASun	2.88	4.25	33.33	33.27	-0.96	-1.42
Austin Peay	OVC	2.59	3.59	34.78	38.36	-0.79	-0.84
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.59	3.54	86.36	87.34	3.34	2.64
Marshall	CUSA	4.40	3.39	60.00	60.44	0.88	0.71
Troy	SB	2.51	1.93	30.00	31.38	-1.01	-0.72
Memphis	CUSA	2.41	1.89	68.18	70.56	0.88	0.78
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.36	1.87	59.09	55.07	0.43	0.19
Miami OH	MAC	2.23	1.73	26.32	31.71	-1.05	-0.63
Duke	ACC	2.17	1.67	85.71	82.53	1.55	1.08
Towson	CAA	2.17	1.67	4.17	5.43	-1.99	-1.49
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.32	0.34	4.35	9.66	-0.30	-0.28
UAB	CUSA	0.48	0.32	40.91	39.82	-0.09	-0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.29	0.29	60.87	59.76	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.29	0.29	34.78	38.42	-0.09	-0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.19	0.25	100.00	94.55	0.19	0.23
Central Florida	CUSA	0.20	0.23	71.43	66.60	0.08	0.08
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.21	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.24	0.20	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.18	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.23	0.18	33.33	37.16	-0.08	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.28	0.18	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.24	0.17	68.18	67.91	0.09	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.17	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.17	81.82	77.20	0.13	0.09
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.23	0.17	38.10	42.78	-0.06	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.23	0.17	82.61	77.63	0.15	0.10
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.23	0.17	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.17	72.73	71.71	0.09	0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.17	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.17	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.24	0.17	86.96	85.46	0.18	0.12
Miami FL	ACC	0.19	0.17	65.00	60.02	0.06	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.17	56.52	55.20	0.03	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.17	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.19	0.17	85.71	82.18	0.14	0.11
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	38.10	40.81	-0.04	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.15	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.14	38.10	37.86	-0.02	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	0.14	26.32	29.71	-0.09	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.14	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.14	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.14	60.87	59.05	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.10	0.12	35.00	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.12	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.12	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.12	19.05	22.37	-0.09	-0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.11	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.11	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.19	0.11	68.18	69.10	0.07	0.04
Furman	SC	0.14	0.11	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.14	0.11	33.33	35.26	-0.05	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.18	0.11	34.78	33.46	-0.06	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.11	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.11	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.11	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.08
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.14	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.14	0.09	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.07
North Texas	SB	0.14	0.09	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.15	0.09	69.57	65.47	0.06	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.09	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.09	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	33.33	34.47	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.14	0.09	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.08	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.08	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.15	0.08	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.08	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.08	61.90	58.59	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.08	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.14	0.08	19.05	25.52	-0.09	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.06	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.02	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.04
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.04	0.05	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.05	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.05	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.05	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.05	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.05	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.04	0.05	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.00	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.04	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.04	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.04	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.04	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.04	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.04	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.04	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01