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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:105.0
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:247
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10105.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wright St. (264.0)HorzA73-70L0%0.0
11-17Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA62-87W100%0.0
11-22Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA63-64W100%0.0
11-24Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH82-77W100%0.0
11-26Denver (232.0)SumH78-57W100%0.0
11-29Ohio (231.0)MACA81-83W100%0.0
12-2Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH63-59W100%0.0
12-9Evansville (118.0)MVCH62-65L0%0.0
12-11Wright St. (264.0)HorzH71-79L0%0.0
12-16VCU (15.0)A10A78-51L0%0.0
12-20Fairfield (299.0)MAACA61-73W100%0.0
12-28Butler (31.0)BEA67-56L0%0.0
1-1Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH78-77W100%0.0
1-7SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH73-69W100%0.0
1-10Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA84-73L0%0.0
1-15Murray St. (63.0)OVCA92-77L0%0.0
1-17Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA83-89W100%0.0
1-22Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH72-67W100%0.0
1-25Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA55-63W100%0.0
1-29Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH103-82W100%0.0
1-31Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH71-53W100%0.0
2-5Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA81-69L0%0.0
2-7Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA73-71L0%0.0
2-11Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA72-70L0%0.0
2-14Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH58-57W100%0.0
2-19Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH66-61W100%0.0
2-21Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA82-88W100%0.0
2-28Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH88-62W100%0.0
3-5Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCN97-64W100%0.0
3-6Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCN53-52W100%0.0
3-7Murray St. (63.0)OVCN88-87W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.4726.4771.8571.8511.5711.57
Eastern KentuckyOVC5.505.5064.0064.001.541.54
Morehead St.OVC4.074.0746.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Tennessee St.OVC4.034.0311.1111.11-3.14-3.14
Tennessee TechOVC4.014.0138.4638.46-0.92-0.92
Murray St.OVC4.014.0185.7185.712.862.86
Jacksonville St.OVC3.953.9533.3333.33-1.32-1.32
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.903.9051.8551.850.140.14
LipscombASun3.403.4042.3142.31-0.52-0.52
Wright St.Horz3.253.2525.9325.93-1.57-1.57
Austin PeayOVC2.462.4622.2222.22-1.36-1.36
Tennessee MartinOVC2.392.3959.2659.260.440.44
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.372.3740.0040.00-0.47-0.47
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.362.3640.7440.74-0.44-0.44
EvansvilleMVC1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.751.7554.5554.550.160.16
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7262.0762.070.410.41
ButlerBE1.641.6467.7467.740.580.58
OhioMAC1.641.6434.4834.48-0.51-0.51
DenverSum1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
FairfieldMAAC1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
VCUA101.611.6173.5373.530.760.76
North FloridaASun0.320.3264.5264.520.090.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.3134.3834.38-0.10-0.10
Northern KentuckyASun0.250.2539.2939.29-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.250.2583.3383.330.170.17
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Green BayHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1925.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
UABCUSA0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.170.1763.3363.330.050.05
IUPUISum0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.040.04
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.060.06
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01