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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Belmont

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:57.0
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:15-3
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:52
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-957.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Belmont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA83-87W100%0.0
11-11Richmond (75.0)A10A69-61L0%0.0
11-14Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH96-95W100%0.0
11-17North Carolina (25.0)ACCA80-83W100%0.0
11-20Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH94-64W100%0.0
11-23Holy Cross (127.0)PatN70-81W100%0.0
11-24Hofstra (277.0)CAAN85-75W100%0.0
12-1VCU (13.0)A10H68-81L0%0.0
12-3Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA58-70W100%0.0
12-14South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA85-72L0%0.0
12-17Denver (139.0)SumA90-62L0%0.0
12-21Kentucky (17.0)SECA93-80L0%0.0
12-28Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA85-73L0%0.0
1-2Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH78-67W100%0.0
1-4Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH64-62W100%0.0
1-9Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA94-107W100%0.0
1-11Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA72-87W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA74-63L0%0.0
1-18Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA65-79W100%0.0
1-20Fairfield (289.0)MAACH62-53W100%0.0
1-23Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH80-66W100%0.0
1-25Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH84-81W100%0.0
1-29Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA73-76W100%0.0
2-1Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA81-76L0%0.0
2-6Murray St. (142.0)OVCH99-96W100%0.0
2-8Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH93-68W100%0.0
2-13Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH73-71W100%0.0
2-20Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH82-63W100%0.0
2-26SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA75-94W100%0.0
3-1Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA53-76W100%0.0
3-7Morehead St. (141.0)OVCN86-63W100%0.0
3-8Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCN73-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Belmont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Belmont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Belmont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BelmontOVC26.3926.3977.0877.0814.2914.29
Eastern KentuckyOVC5.405.4071.4371.432.312.31
Morehead St.OVC5.375.3764.2964.291.531.53
Tennessee TechOVC3.963.9648.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Tennessee St.OVC3.883.8814.8114.81-2.73-2.73
Jacksonville St.OVC3.803.8029.6329.63-1.55-1.55
LipscombASun3.313.3151.8551.850.120.12
Indiana St.MVC3.153.1568.9768.971.201.20
Murray St.OVC2.302.3061.5461.540.530.53
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.252.2555.1755.170.230.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.222.2233.3333.33-0.74-0.74
Tennessee MartinOVC2.202.2021.4321.43-1.26-1.26
Austin PeayOVC2.202.2037.0437.04-0.57-0.57
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.202.2032.1432.14-0.78-0.78
VCUA101.711.7175.7675.760.880.88
RichmondA101.701.7056.2556.250.210.21
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.651.6573.3373.330.770.77
North CarolinaACC1.631.6374.1974.190.790.79
DenverSum1.621.6248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
Holy CrossPat1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
FairfieldMAAC1.611.6122.5822.58-0.88-0.88
KentuckySEC1.591.5969.7069.700.630.63
HofstraCAA1.591.5931.2531.25-0.59-0.59
IPFWSum0.340.3467.7467.740.120.12
East Tennessee St.ASun0.340.3453.1253.120.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.2830.0030.00-0.11-0.11
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.2329.0329.03-0.10-0.10
IUPUISum0.210.2110.3410.34-0.17-0.17
South DakotaSum0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.210.21100.00100.000.210.21
TennesseeSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.170.1780.6580.650.110.11
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
AuburnSEC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
MercerASun0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
North FloridaASun0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
FordhamA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00