Baylor

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	68.0
Current RPI:	68
Expected SOS:	22
Current SOS:	22
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	63
Expected OOC SOS:	123

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	68.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	107-66	W	100%
11-13	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	70-46	W	100%
11-17	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	78-61	W	100%
11-20	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	N	65-70	W	100%
11-21	Creighton (44.0)	BE	N	65-59	W	100%
11-28	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	76-63	L	0%
12-2	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	H	62-69	L	0%
12-4	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	84-56	W	100%
12-14	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	99-68	W	100%
12-17	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	H	118-86	W	100%
12-20	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	80-60	W	100%
12-29	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	77-53	L	0%
1-2	TCU (26.0)	B12	H	78-81	L	0%
1-6	Texas (51.0)	B12	H	69-60	W	100%
1-9	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	A	57-54	L	0%
1-13	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	A	75-65	L	0%
1-15	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	H	76-60	W	100%
1-20	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	70-67	L	0%
1-22	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	H	83-90	L	0%
1-27	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	81-60	L	0%
1-30	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	A	98-96	L	0%
2-3	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	H	81-67	W	100%
2-6	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	56-67	W	100%
2-10	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	80-64	W	100%
2-12	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	73-74	W	100%
2-17	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	H	59-57	W	100%
2-20	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	H	60-71	L	0%
2-24	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	82-72	L	0%
2-27	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	H	87-64	W	100%
3-3	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	77-67	L	0%
3-8	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	N	78-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Baylor	B12	26.32	26.32	51.22	51.22	0.64	0.64
West Virginia	B12	5.73	5.73	67.74	67.74	2.03	2.03
Kansas	B12	4.26	4.26	81.25	81.25	2.66	2.66
Texas Tech	B12	4.21	4.21	74.19	74.19	2.04	2.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	4.19	4.19	61.29	61.29	0.95	0.95
Texas	B12	4.17	4.17	61.29	61.29	0.94	0.94
Kansas St.	B12	4.16	4.16	64.52	64.52	1.21	1.21
Iowa St.	B12	4.14	4.14	41.38	41.38	-0.71	-0.71
TCU	B12	4.13	4.13	63.33	63.33	1.10	1.10
Oklahoma	B12	4.13	4.13	58.62	58.62	0.71	0.71
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.82	1.82	45.45	45.45	-0.17	-0.17
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.82	1.82	25.93	25.93	-0.87	-0.87
Wichita St.	Amer	1.74	1.74	77.42	77.42	0.95	0.95
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.73	1.73	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.73	1.73	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
Southern	SWAC	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.69	1.69	32.00	32.00	-0.61	-0.61
Creighton	BE	1.69	1.69	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Xavier	BE	1.69	1.69	84.38	84.38	1.16	1.16
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.69	1.69	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Wisconsin	B10	1.64	1.64	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Florida	SEC	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Tulsa	Amer	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.22	0.22	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.22	0.22	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	8.00	8.00	-0.18	-0.18
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.21	0.21	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.21	0.21	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.21	0.21	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.21	0.21	12.50	12.50	-0.15	-0.15
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.19	0.19	10.71	10.71	-0.15	-0.15
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.17	0.17	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.17	0.17	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Butler	BE	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.14	0.14	12.50	12.50	-0.11	-0.11
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	93.94	93.94	0.11	0.11
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Temple	Amer	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00