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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:25.0
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:5
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:68



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH97-55W100%0.0
11-16Oregon (2.0)P12A74-67L0%0.0
11-20Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH77-60W100%0.0
11-23Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH100-61W100%0.0
11-27Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH94-72W100%0.0
12-2Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH80-41W100%0.0
12-6Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH69-67W100%0.0
12-8Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH75-62W100%0.0
12-19Texas A&M (18.0)SECA80-61L0%0.0
12-23New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH85-70W100%0.0
12-29Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH72-59W100%0.0
1-2Kansas (1.0)B12A102-74L0%0.0
1-5Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H79-62W100%0.0
1-9Iowa St. (23.0)B12A89-94W100%0.0
1-13TCU (174.0)B12H82-54W100%0.0
1-16Texas Tech (36.0)B12A60-63W100%0.0
1-20Kansas St. (92.0)B12H79-72W100%0.0
1-23Oklahoma (6.0)B12H72-82L0%0.0
1-27Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A65-69W100%0.0
1-30Georgia (62.0)SECH83-73W100%0.0
2-1Texas (27.0)B12H59-67L0%0.0
2-6West Virginia (10.0)B12A80-69L0%0.0
2-10Kansas St. (92.0)B12A72-82W100%0.0
2-13Texas Tech (36.0)B12H66-84L0%0.0
2-16Iowa St. (23.0)B12H100-91W100%0.0
2-20Texas (27.0)B12A64-78W100%0.0
2-23Kansas (1.0)B12H60-66L0%0.0
2-27TCU (174.0)B12A71-86W100%0.0
3-1Oklahoma (6.0)B12A73-71L0%0.0
3-5West Virginia (10.0)B12H58-69L0%0.0
3-10Texas (27.0)B12N61-75W100%0.0
3-11Kansas (1.0)B12N70-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1226.4226.4261.8161.816.246.24
KansasB125.635.6386.6786.674.134.13
TexasB125.555.5565.5265.521.721.72
West VirginiaB124.164.1675.0075.002.082.08
Kansas St.B124.164.1654.8454.840.400.40
TCUB124.124.1238.7138.71-0.93-0.93
OklahomaB124.094.0976.6776.672.182.18
Iowa St.B124.064.0670.0070.001.631.63
Oklahoma St.B124.044.0440.0040.00-0.81-0.81
Texas TechB124.044.0462.0762.070.970.97
Texas A&MSEC1.811.8175.7675.760.930.93
VanderbiltSEC1.781.7861.2961.290.400.40
Jackson St.SWAC1.761.7654.8454.840.170.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.731.7323.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Texas SouthernSWAC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
GeorgiaSEC1.661.6661.2961.290.370.37
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.651.6585.1985.191.161.16
OregonP121.641.6481.2581.251.031.03
Arkansas St.SB1.641.6432.1432.14-0.58-0.58
Savannah St.MEAC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd1.621.6221.7421.74-0.91-0.91
New Mexico St.WAC1.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.300.3024.2424.24-0.15-0.15
WashingtonP120.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
FloridaSEC0.240.2457.5857.580.040.04
MissouriSEC0.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
KentuckySEC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.2176.6776.670.110.11
AuburnSEC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.2022.8622.86-0.11-0.11
SouthernSWAC0.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
TennesseeSEC0.170.1744.1244.12-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1456.0056.000.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
UMKCWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
StanfordP120.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
HarvardIvy0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
UCLAP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1087.1087.100.080.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.030.03
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
MontanaBSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01