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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:8.0
Current RPI:8
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:10
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:64


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-78.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas Southern (234.0)SWACH77-57W100%0.0
11-13Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH92-59W100%0.0
11-15San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH77-67W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina St. (343.0)MEACH70-50W100%0.0
11-23Texas Arlington (111.0)SlndH75-65W100%0.0
11-29Prairie View A&M (294.0)SWACH90-54W100%0.0
12-4Northwestern (63.0)B10A41-69W100%0.0
12-14Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACH69-42W100%0.0
12-17Brigham Young (46.0)WCCA83-86W100%0.0
12-22St. Mary's (28.0)WCCN72-59W100%0.0
12-23West Virginia (57.0)BEN81-83W100%0.0
12-28Mississippi St. (75.0)SECN54-52W100%0.0
1-2Texas A&M (165.0)B12H61-52W100%0.0
1-7Texas Tech (241.0)B12A60-73W100%0.0
1-10Kansas St. (45.0)B12A73-75W100%0.0
1-14Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12H106-65W100%0.0
1-16Kansas (6.0)B12A92-74L0%0.0
1-21Missouri (10.0)B12H88-89L0%0.0
1-24Oklahoma (137.0)B12A65-77W100%0.0
1-28Texas (50.0)B12H76-71W100%0.0
2-1Texas A&M (165.0)B12A60-63W100%0.0
2-4Oklahoma St. (124.0)B12A60-64W100%0.0
2-8Kansas (6.0)B12H54-68L0%0.0
2-11Missouri (10.0)B12A72-57L0%0.0
2-13Iowa St. (33.0)B12H79-64W100%0.0
2-18Kansas St. (45.0)B12H56-57L0%0.0
2-20Texas (50.0)B12A72-77W100%0.0
2-25Oklahoma (137.0)B12H70-60W100%0.0
2-27Texas Tech (241.0)B12H77-48W100%0.0
3-3Iowa St. (33.0)B12A80-72L0%0.0
3-8Kansas St. (45.0)B12N82-74W100%0.0
3-9Kansas (6.0)B12N72-81W100%0.0
3-10Missouri (10.0)B12N90-75L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1226.5026.5077.4277.4214.5314.53
MissouriB125.505.5087.1087.104.084.08
KansasB125.455.4583.3383.333.633.63
Kansas St.B125.425.4271.4371.432.322.32
TexasB124.074.0764.5264.521.181.18
Texas A&MB124.074.0744.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Oklahoma St.B124.044.0446.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Iowa St.B124.004.0070.0070.001.601.60
OklahomaB124.004.0051.7251.720.140.14
Texas TechB123.973.9727.5927.59-1.78-1.78
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.681.6839.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Texas SouthernSWAC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Jackson St.SWAC1.641.6420.6920.69-0.96-0.96
South Carolina St.MEAC1.631.6310.7110.71-1.28-1.28
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.621.6250.0050.000.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC1.611.6186.2186.211.171.17
West VirginiaBE1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
Brigham YoungWCC1.591.5976.6776.670.850.85
Mississippi St.SEC1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Texas ArlingtonSlnd1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
NorthwesternB101.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
San Diego St.MWC1.521.5280.0080.000.910.91
Alcorn St.SWAC0.270.2725.0025.00-0.14-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.270.2763.6463.640.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.240.2420.0020.00-0.14-0.14
GramblingSWAC0.200.2014.2914.29-0.14-0.14
SouthernSWAC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1719.2319.23-0.11-0.11
North TexasSB0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
RiceCUSA0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
PittsburghBE0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
ArkansasSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.126.676.67-0.10-0.10
CaliforniaP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
IllinoisB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
UCLAP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Longwoodind0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Texas St.Slnd0.090.0934.6234.62-0.03-0.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.090.0918.7518.75-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
South FloridaBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiBE0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
St. LouisA100.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
DukeACC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
North DakotaGWC0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.073.123.12-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.070.076.456.45-0.06-0.06
MercerASun0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
NavyPat0.070.077.147.14-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NevadaWAC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
HoustonCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
DenverSB0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
LipscombASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TempleA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0396.4396.430.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
SyracuseBE0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00