live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:10.0
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:3
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:24



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-910.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH80-39W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina (91.0)SECA65-69W100%0.0
11-21Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH60-45W100%0.0
11-24Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndH67-51W100%0.0
11-27Memphis (83.0)AmerN47-71W100%0.0
11-28Illinois (73.0)B10N54-62L0%0.0
12-1Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH75-49W100%0.0
12-4Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA63-66W100%0.0
12-9Texas A&M (67.0)SECH77-63W100%0.0
12-17New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH66-55W100%0.0
12-22Southern (223.0)SWACH70-66W100%0.0
12-30Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH92-51W100%0.0
1-3Oklahoma (18.0)B12A73-63L0%0.0
1-7Kansas (2.0)B12H55-56L0%0.0
1-10TCU (131.0)B12A59-66W100%0.0
1-14Iowa St. (9.0)B12H74-73W100%0.0
1-17Kansas St. (100.0)B12A63-61L0%0.0
1-24Oklahoma (18.0)B12H69-58W100%0.0
1-27Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A64-53L0%0.0
1-31Texas (42.0)B12H83-60W100%0.0
2-4TCU (131.0)B12H77-57W100%0.0
2-7West Virginia (24.0)B12A69-87W100%0.0
2-9Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H65-74L0%0.0
2-14Kansas (2.0)B12A74-64L0%0.0
2-17Texas Tech (183.0)B12A49-54W100%0.0
2-21Kansas St. (100.0)B12H69-42W100%0.0
2-25Iowa St. (9.0)B12A70-79W100%0.0
2-28West Virginia (24.0)B12H78-66W100%0.0
3-2Texas (42.0)B12A61-59L0%0.0
3-6Texas Tech (183.0)B12H77-74W100%0.0
3-12West Virginia (24.0)B12N80-70W100%0.0
3-13Kansas (2.0)B12N62-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1226.4126.4171.3271.3211.2611.26
KansasB125.615.6174.1974.192.712.71
West VirginiaB125.515.5179.3179.313.233.23
Iowa St.B124.214.2180.6580.652.582.58
TCUB124.174.1758.0658.060.670.67
Oklahoma St.B124.114.1153.5753.570.290.29
OklahomaB124.094.0970.0070.001.641.64
TexasB124.094.0961.2961.290.920.92
Kansas St.B124.094.0946.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Texas TechB124.064.0643.3343.33-0.54-0.54
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.881.8845.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Texas SouthernSWAC1.811.8166.6766.670.600.60
SouthernSWAC1.731.7348.3948.39-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC1.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
MemphisAmer1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Texas A&MSEC1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.641.6489.6689.661.301.30
VanderbiltSEC1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
McNeese St.Slnd1.641.6442.3142.31-0.25-0.25
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
New Mexico St.WAC1.591.5970.0070.000.630.63
IllinoisB101.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
TennesseeSEC0.290.2950.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.290.2955.5655.560.030.03
LSUSEC0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
MissouriSEC0.250.2525.8125.81-0.12-0.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.240.2418.7518.75-0.15-0.15
GeorgiaSEC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
FloridaSEC0.220.2248.4848.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.220.22100.00100.000.220.22
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.2116.6716.67-0.14-0.14
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
AuburnSEC0.200.2041.1841.18-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.190.190.000.00-0.19-0.19
LamarSlnd0.180.1842.3142.31-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1762.9662.960.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1672.4172.410.070.07
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1630.7730.77-0.06-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
UMKCWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
MarylandB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
PurdueB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1027.2727.27-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
LipscombASun0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01