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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:41.9
Current RPI:214
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:311
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-32.00.02%
25-42.30.11%
24-53.90.38%
23-66.41.02%
22-79.72.80%
21-814.95.71%
20-919.910.39%
19-1027.015.73%
18-1135.117.73%
17-1244.817.12%
16-1356.713.03%
15-1471.18.81%
14-1585.84.20%
13-16103.52.07%
12-17121.50.68%
11-18147.60.14%
10-19149.00.04%
9-20193.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH107-66W100%0.0
11-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndH70-46W100%0.0
11-17Alcorn St. (317.1)SWACH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Wisconsin (36.5)B10N0-052%0.5
11-28Xavier (9.4)BEA0-029%-6.6
12-2Wichita St. (10.9)AmerH0-048%-0.7
12-4Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndH0-098%23.9
12-14Texas Southern (177.8)SWACH0-097%22.1
12-17Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH0-0100%34.0
12-20Southern (281.6)SWACH0-099%28.8
12-29Texas Tech (67.9)B12A0-045%-1.4
1-2TCU (44.2)B12H0-065%4.7
1-6Texas (42.7)B12H0-060%3.0
1-9West Virginia (33.4)B12A0-029%-6.8
1-13Iowa St. (151.6)B12A0-069%6.0
1-15Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12H0-064%4.5
1-20Kansas (4.9)B12A0-019%-10.4
1-22Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-065%4.5
1-27Florida (14.6)SECA0-027%-7.5
1-30Oklahoma (39.9)B12A0-040%-3.1
2-3Iowa St. (151.6)B12H0-084%12.0
2-6Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12A0-045%-1.6
2-10Kansas (4.9)B12H0-036%-4.4
2-12Texas (42.7)B12A0-040%-3.0
2-17Texas Tech (67.9)B12H0-065%4.5
2-20West Virginia (33.4)B12H0-047%-0.8
2-24TCU (44.2)B12A0-046%-1.4
2-27Oklahoma (39.9)B12H0-060%2.9
3-3Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1235.4226.39100.0058.2335.424.34
KansasB120.004.42100.0083.630.002.97
Oklahoma St.B120.004.41100.0060.550.000.93
Texas TechB120.004.41100.0063.880.001.23
Iowa St.B120.004.4150.0039.870.00-0.89
TCUB120.004.41100.0062.330.001.09
OklahomaB120.004.41100.0060.830.000.95
Kansas St.B120.004.38100.0064.190.001.24
TexasB120.004.38100.0064.860.001.30
West VirginiaB120.004.3866.6771.880.001.92
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.960.0051.930.000.08
Alcorn St.SWAC16.671.930.0038.55-16.67-0.44
Wichita St.Amer0.001.87100.0083.400.001.25
Central ArkansasSlnd16.671.860.0036.83-16.67-0.49
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.850.0049.050.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.001.840.0046.190.00-0.14
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd16.671.820.0047.91-16.67-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.810.0026.070.00-0.87
WisconsinB100.001.7566.6767.620.000.62
XavierBE0.001.75100.0079.270.001.03
FloridaSEC0.001.72100.0080.480.001.05
TulsaAmer0.000.2650.0048.690.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.250.0036.830.00-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.250.0022.920.00-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.240.0018.970.00-0.15
Texas A&MSEC0.000.23100.0071.010.000.10
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.220.0038.960.00-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2166.6749.990.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.18100.0061.320.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0022.610.00-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.180.0026.180.00-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.180.0023.910.00-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.180.0032.770.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.180.0044.500.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.180.0033.850.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.170.0035.760.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.1775.0071.830.000.08
LamarSlnd0.000.17100.0065.580.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.160.0029.630.00-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.16100.0069.350.000.06
MississippiSEC0.000.16100.0053.790.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.15100.0053.240.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.15100.0082.350.000.10
ArkansasSEC0.000.15100.0071.180.000.06
New OrleansSlnd0.000.130.0042.810.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1350.0043.710.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.130.0044.130.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.170.1350.0035.330.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1233.3335.150.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC2.080.1266.6763.220.690.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0018.400.00-0.08
NorthwesternB100.000.1275.0055.040.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.12100.0076.260.000.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0034.040.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0074.140.000.06
YaleIvy0.000.1225.0054.930.000.01
IowaB100.000.12100.0058.250.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.120.0030.350.00-0.05
ButlerBE0.000.1275.0052.360.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1275.0058.930.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0046.410.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.11100.0078.910.000.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0023.260.00-0.06
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0067.950.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.11100.0062.760.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6740.070.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0023.170.00-0.05
LSUSEC2.080.10100.0046.082.08-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1033.3338.350.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.09100.0054.140.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.090.0037.050.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0061.780.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0048.070.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0056.600.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0022.840.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0028.770.00-0.04
CreightonBE2.080.09100.0067.462.080.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6757.890.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0048.110.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.09100.0048.350.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0077.820.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.090.0026.150.00-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0933.3335.210.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.09100.0061.710.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.09100.0060.010.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.09100.0068.200.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0059.240.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0966.6761.500.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0950.0050.870.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0933.3336.610.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0975.0049.860.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.09100.0041.780.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0866.6765.630.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.08100.0062.240.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.08100.0064.120.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0650.0051.070.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.06100.0038.710.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.560.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3331.290.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0650.0050.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3336.410.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0633.3345.780.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0059.870.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0366.6773.200.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
RutgersB100.000.03100.0046.880.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
UCLAP124.170.03100.0064.914.170.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0057.360.000.00