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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:11.0
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:6
Current SOS:6
Current Record:24-7
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-711.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH76-61W100%0.0
11-15Oregon (9.0)P12H66-49W100%0.0
11-18Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH81-72W100%0.0
11-23VCU (22.0)A10N71-63W100%0.0
11-24Michigan St. (51.0)B10N58-73W100%0.0
11-25Louisville (7.0)ACCN66-63W100%0.0
11-30Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH79-45W100%0.0
12-3Xavier (37.0)BEH76-61W100%0.0
12-14Southern (320.0)SWACH89-59W100%0.0
12-17Jackson St. (323.0)SWACN82-57W100%0.0
12-21Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH89-63W100%0.0
12-30Oklahoma (168.0)B12A50-76W100%0.0
1-4Iowa St. (21.0)B12H65-63W100%0.0
1-7Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H61-57W100%0.0
1-10West Virginia (24.0)B12A89-68L0%0.0
1-14Kansas St. (57.0)B12A68-77W100%0.0
1-17Texas (156.0)B12H74-64W100%0.0
1-21TCU (67.0)B12A53-62W100%0.0
1-25Texas Tech (124.0)B12H65-61W100%0.0
1-28Mississippi (77.0)SECA75-78W100%0.0
2-1Kansas (4.0)B12A73-68L0%0.0
2-4Kansas St. (57.0)B12H54-56L0%0.0
2-8Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A69-72W100%0.0
2-11TCU (67.0)B12H70-52W100%0.0
2-13Texas Tech (124.0)B12A84-78L0%0.0
2-18Kansas (4.0)B12H65-67L0%0.0
2-21Oklahoma (168.0)B12H60-54W100%0.0
2-25Iowa St. (21.0)B12A72-69L0%0.0
2-27West Virginia (24.0)B12H71-62W100%0.0
3-4Texas (156.0)B12A64-75W100%0.0
3-9Kansas St. (57.0)B12N64-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1226.3226.3277.0477.0414.2314.23
Kansas St.B125.685.6860.0060.001.141.14
TCUB124.254.2558.0658.060.690.69
West VirginiaB124.254.2578.1278.122.392.39
Iowa St.B124.224.2270.9770.971.771.77
TexasB124.174.1735.4835.48-1.21-1.21
OklahomaB124.144.1437.9337.93-1.00-1.00
KansasB124.124.1286.6786.673.023.02
Texas TechB124.124.1256.6756.670.550.55
Oklahoma St.B124.124.1265.5265.521.281.28
Texas SouthernSWAC1.801.8069.7069.700.710.71
SouthernSWAC1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Jackson St.SWAC1.741.7442.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Oral RobertsSum1.711.7122.2222.22-0.95-0.95
Michigan St.B101.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
MississippiSEC1.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.641.6479.3179.310.960.96
LouisvilleACC1.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
OregonP121.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
VCUA101.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
XavierBE1.611.6163.6463.640.440.44
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.280.2821.8821.88-0.16-0.16
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.2120.0020.00-0.13-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
AuburnSEC0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.180.1873.5373.530.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.166.906.90-0.14-0.14
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1587.8887.880.120.12
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.1532.0032.00-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
MarylandB100.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
KentuckySEC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
CreightonBE0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
Washington St.P120.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01