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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:14.4
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:272
Current Record:5-0
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:5-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:83



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-11.00.10%
27-21.60.62%
26-32.12.13%
25-43.26.23%
24-54.811.14%
23-67.416.68%
22-710.819.17%
21-815.517.30%
20-921.713.19%
19-1029.47.87%
18-1138.53.63%
17-1249.41.43%
16-1364.60.40%
15-1473.10.09%
14-15100.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14McNeese St. (242.4)SlndH80-39W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina (85.9)SECA65-69W100%0.0
11-21Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH60-45W100%0.0
11-24Stephen F. Austin (107.8)SlndH67-51W100%0.0
11-27Memphis (89.3)AmerN47-71W100%0.0
12-1Texas Southern (240.5)SWACH0-098%25.5
12-4Vanderbilt (122.7)SECA0-072%7.0
12-9Texas A&M (47.8)SECH0-074%7.9
12-17New Mexico St. (79.3)WACH0-083%11.6
12-22Southern (302.0)SWACH0-099%29.2
12-30Norfolk St. (232.2)MEACH0-098%24.2
1-3Oklahoma (21.5)B12A0-040%-3.0
1-7Kansas (20.0)B12H0-069%5.9
1-10TCU (125.0)B12A0-066%5.1
1-14Iowa St. (54.5)B12H0-074%7.8
1-17Kansas St. (106.3)B12A0-067%5.4
1-24Oklahoma (21.5)B12H0-064%4.2
1-27Oklahoma St. (52.5)B12A0-056%1.7
1-31Texas (7.7)B12H0-053%0.8
2-4TCU (125.0)B12H0-085%12.3
2-7West Virginia (28.4)B12A0-048%-0.5
2-9Oklahoma St. (52.5)B12H0-077%8.9
2-14Kansas (20.0)B12A0-046%-1.3
2-17Texas Tech (158.8)B12A0-079%9.5
2-21Kansas St. (106.3)B12H0-085%12.6
2-25Iowa St. (54.5)B12A0-052%0.6
2-28West Virginia (28.4)B12H0-071%6.7
3-2Texas (7.7)B12A0-030%-6.3
3-6Texas Tech (158.8)B12H0-092%16.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1234.5826.37100.0074.0934.5812.70
Oklahoma St.B120.834.45100.0062.380.831.10
TCUB120.834.43100.0060.800.830.96
Iowa St.B120.004.4375.0062.870.001.14
Kansas St.B120.004.4350.0047.670.00-0.21
Texas TechB120.004.4075.0047.350.00-0.23
TexasB120.004.37100.0080.460.002.66
West VirginiaB120.004.37100.0070.850.001.82
KansasB120.004.3675.0064.090.001.23
OklahomaB120.004.3680.0072.200.001.94
Prairie View A&MSWAC12.922.080.0042.06-12.92-0.33
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.960.0042.53-0.00-0.29
South CarolinaSEC10.001.9060.0054.112.000.16
SouthernSWAC0.001.900.0036.76-0.00-0.50
MemphisAmer10.831.8550.0062.620.000.47
Texas A&MSEC0.001.8475.0070.140.000.74
Stephen F. AustinSlnd10.831.8233.3370.82-3.610.76
McNeese St.Slnd10.001.810.0049.65-10.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.001.81100.0054.650.000.17
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.7825.0049.54-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.7550.0072.850.000.80
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.290.0015.46-0.00-0.20
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.280.0050.53-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.2660.0056.260.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.2416.6732.00-0.00-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.240.0020.98-0.00-0.14
MissouriSEC0.000.2440.0036.39-0.00-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.230.0033.90-0.00-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.000.2360.0056.890.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.2360.0062.400.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.2380.0058.550.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.23100.0089.470.000.18
TennesseeSEC0.000.2366.6746.480.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.2220.0035.95-0.00-0.06
LamarSlnd0.000.2225.0036.27-0.00-0.06
AuburnSEC0.000.2060.0037.710.00-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.000.190.0035.74-0.00-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.1875.0039.180.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0032.17-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.180.0063.05-0.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1820.0043.38-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1860.0055.660.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1875.0053.040.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.18100.0079.690.000.10
UMKCWAC0.000.1720.0042.43-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1775.0069.780.000.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1650.0065.020.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.15100.0045.140.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1440.0054.55-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1450.0031.400.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1240.0038.51-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1266.6748.060.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.12100.0071.310.000.05
George MasonA100.000.1220.0022.17-0.00-0.06
LafayettePat0.000.1260.0061.400.000.03
IowaB100.000.1166.6765.220.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0022.17-0.00-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.100.0030.59-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0023.72-0.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0052.770.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1033.3352.29-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6750.170.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0966.6739.850.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0050.480.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0036.81-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0960.0056.430.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0065.590.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0025.08-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.830.0925.0028.63-0.42-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.19-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.090.0043.66-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0950.0045.460.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0983.3368.400.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0840.0053.54-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0030.50-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.02-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0028.59-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.490.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.96-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0046.34-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.230.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.53-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6756.430.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0640.0043.47-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3364.43-0.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0666.6758.390.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.700.000.00
UtahP120.000.0675.0073.700.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.210.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.930.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0052.78-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC1.670.06100.0083.181.670.04
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0023.91-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.13-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0042.050.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3348.21-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.26-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3330.52-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0625.0022.65-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0076.220.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.03-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0680.0070.550.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.720.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0064.840.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0047.410.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.34-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.910.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0016.54-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0045.71-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0680.0071.340.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0077.100.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.370.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0052.42-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3337.74-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC1.250.03100.0077.871.250.02
XavierBE1.250.03100.0078.731.250.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0053.47-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.20-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4356.020.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.830.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.880.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0037.69-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0052.73-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.330.000.01
AkronMAC0.830.0360.0066.680.170.01
CharlotteCUSA0.830.0360.0067.380.170.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.620.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0069.610.000.01
CornellIvy0.830.0342.8641.73-0.12-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0375.0044.850.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.20-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.830.0340.0051.36-0.170.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.90-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.53-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.450.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.260.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.470.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3366.19-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.830.0325.0053.73-0.420.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0375.0057.260.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.73-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.400.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.300.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0054.380.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0040.660.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0380.0074.820.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0056.380.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0380.0074.350.000.01