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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:30.0
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:8
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:12-10
Expected Conf Record:12-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:12
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1130.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Colorado (34.0)P12N72-60W100%0.0
11-12South Carolina (140.0)SECH66-64W100%0.0
11-17Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH87-68W100%0.0
11-20Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH69-64W100%0.0
11-26Dayton (43.0)A10N66-67W100%0.0
11-27Syracuse (16.0)ACCN67-74L0%0.0
12-6Kentucky (17.0)SECN67-62W100%0.0
12-18Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH91-84W100%0.0
12-22Southern (171.0)SWACH81-56W100%0.0
12-30Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH81-55W100%0.0
1-3Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH80-50W100%0.0
1-7Iowa St. (7.0)B12A87-72L0%0.0
1-11TCU (212.0)B12H88-62W100%0.0
1-15Texas Tech (121.0)B12A82-72L0%0.0
1-18Oklahoma (26.0)B12H64-66L0%0.0
1-20Kansas (3.0)B12A78-68L0%0.0
1-25Texas (36.0)B12H60-74L0%0.0
1-28West Virginia (88.0)B12H64-66L0%0.0
2-1Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A70-76W100%0.0
2-4Kansas (3.0)B12H52-69L0%0.0
2-8Oklahoma (26.0)B12A88-72L0%0.0
2-12TCU (212.0)B12A58-91W100%0.0
2-15Kansas St. (51.0)B12H87-73W100%0.0
2-17Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H70-64W100%0.0
2-22West Virginia (88.0)B12A75-88W100%0.0
2-26Texas (36.0)B12A74-69L0%0.0
3-1Texas Tech (121.0)B12H59-49W100%0.0
3-4Iowa St. (7.0)B12H74-61W100%0.0
3-8Kansas St. (51.0)B12A74-76W100%0.0
3-12TCU (212.0)B12N76-68W100%0.0
3-13Oklahoma (26.0)B12N73-78W100%0.0
3-14Texas (36.0)B12N69-86W100%0.0
3-15Iowa St. (7.0)B12N74-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1226.6026.6063.9563.957.427.42
Iowa St.B125.545.5480.0080.003.333.33
TexasB125.505.5070.0070.002.202.20
OklahomaB125.455.4572.4172.412.442.44
TCUB125.435.4326.9226.92-2.51-2.51
Oklahoma St.B124.124.1267.7467.741.461.46
KansasB124.124.1270.9770.971.731.73
Kansas St.B124.074.0766.6766.671.361.36
West VirginiaB124.054.0553.3353.330.270.27
Texas TechB124.024.0243.3343.33-0.54-0.54
Oral RobertsSlnd1.621.6246.4346.43-0.12-0.12
ColoradoP121.611.6169.7069.700.630.63
Northwestern St.Slnd1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC1.581.5842.4242.42-0.24-0.24
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
KentuckySEC1.541.5472.7372.730.700.70
Charleston SouthernBSth1.521.5234.6234.62-0.47-0.47
DaytonA101.521.5271.8871.880.660.66
Savannah St.MEAC1.521.5237.9337.93-0.37-0.37
SouthernSWAC1.521.5257.1457.140.220.22
SyracuseACC1.521.5283.8783.871.031.03
TulsaCUSA0.250.2563.6463.640.070.07
UT ArlingtonSB0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.230.2324.0024.00-0.12-0.12
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.220.2253.5753.570.020.02
FloridaSEC0.210.2194.1294.120.180.18
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.2193.1093.100.180.18
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.2014.8114.81-0.14-0.14
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2078.7978.790.110.11
AlabamaSEC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
LSUSEC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
George MasonA100.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.160.1676.4776.470.090.09
MississippiSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
ArizonaP120.140.1488.2488.240.110.11
MercerASun0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
AkronMAC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
BYUWCC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
LongwoodBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Washington St.P120.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
LamarSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.100.1086.2186.210.070.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UCLAP120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
WashingtonP120.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00