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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:11.5
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:10
Current Record:7-0
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:7-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-11.00.02%
28-21.20.28%
27-31.61.19%
26-42.23.90%
25-53.48.94%
24-65.414.28%
23-78.018.79%
22-811.319.42%
21-915.115.36%
20-1019.79.96%
19-1125.04.78%
18-1233.12.22%
17-1340.90.67%
16-1449.50.12%
15-1564.40.05%
14-1671.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oral Roberts (305.9)SumH76-61W100%0.0
11-15Oregon (50.4)P12H66-49W100%0.0
11-18Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunH81-72W100%0.0
11-23VCU (31.1)A10N71-63W100%0.0
11-24Michigan St. (41.5)B10N58-73W100%0.0
11-25Louisville (6.5)ACCN66-63W100%0.0
11-30Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndH79-45W100%0.0
12-3Xavier (11.9)BEH0-063%3.8
12-14Southern (238.0)SWACH0-099%26.9
12-17Jackson St. (300.4)SWACN0-099%28.2
12-21Texas Southern (107.3)SWACH0-095%20.1
12-30Oklahoma (70.0)B12A0-060%3.1
1-4Iowa St. (31.7)B12H0-059%2.6
1-7Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12H0-076%8.4
1-10West Virginia (16.0)B12A0-024%-8.3
1-14Kansas St. (99.4)B12A0-065%4.7
1-17Texas (135.5)B12H0-089%14.5
1-21TCU (53.5)B12A0-061%3.4
1-25Texas Tech (68.9)B12H0-073%7.5
1-28Mississippi (134.5)SECA0-084%11.8
2-1Kansas (7.5)B12A0-030%-6.3
2-4Kansas St. (99.4)B12H0-082%10.9
2-8Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12A0-057%2.2
2-11TCU (53.5)B12H0-079%9.6
2-13Texas Tech (68.9)B12A0-054%1.3
2-18Kansas (7.5)B12H0-050%-0.1
2-21Oklahoma (70.0)B12H0-078%9.3
2-25Iowa St. (31.7)B12A0-038%-3.6
2-27West Virginia (16.0)B12H0-043%-2.1
3-4Texas (135.5)B12A0-076%8.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1228.7626.32100.0073.1328.7612.18
OklahomaB120.004.2383.3353.430.000.29
TCUB120.004.23100.0061.580.000.98
KansasB120.004.2185.7177.270.002.29
Kansas St.B120.004.2185.7157.920.000.67
TexasB120.004.2150.0037.500.00-1.05
Texas TechB120.004.2185.7165.690.001.32
West VirginiaB120.004.2183.3381.530.002.65
Iowa St.B120.004.2071.4370.210.001.70
Oklahoma St.B120.004.2083.3358.220.000.69
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.8757.1469.100.000.71
SouthernSWAC0.601.8125.0058.98-0.300.33
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.780.0044.09-0.00-0.21
Oral RobertsSum7.141.780.0020.01-7.14-1.07
Michigan St.B107.741.7357.1463.651.110.47
MississippiSEC0.601.7071.4347.000.26-0.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd7.141.7060.0060.861.430.37
Florida Gulf CoastASun7.591.6960.0074.081.520.82
LouisvilleACC7.141.69100.0078.497.140.96
OregonP127.141.6783.3369.034.760.63
VCUA107.141.67100.0080.767.141.03
XavierBE0.001.67100.0076.040.000.87
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.310.0024.77-0.45-0.16
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.2314.2934.56-0.00-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.230.0024.25-0.00-0.12
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.2316.6732.62-0.00-0.08
AuburnSEC0.000.2283.3355.200.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0013.30-0.00-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0032.39-0.00-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1728.5734.18-0.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.170.0037.92-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1733.3348.73-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.1783.3362.840.000.04
Long Beach St.BW1.110.170.0039.35-1.11-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.960.1671.4386.030.410.12
WashingtonP120.000.1457.1452.630.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1450.0043.610.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.1457.1448.600.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.1457.1461.940.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.510.1450.0047.560.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1471.4349.590.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.1471.4359.850.000.03
MarylandB100.000.1485.7156.490.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.510.1425.0034.47-0.26-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1366.6754.380.000.01
KentuckySEC0.450.13100.0086.250.450.10
LSUSEC0.510.1371.4349.770.22-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1225.0053.29-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.120.0038.51-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.600.1166.6739.720.20-0.02
FloridaSEC0.600.1187.5075.320.450.06
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0022.69-0.00-0.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1185.7159.740.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.600.1157.1464.940.090.03
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1185.7180.960.000.07
ClemsonACC0.000.1166.6753.460.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1112.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1140.0057.49-0.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1175.0059.100.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6756.020.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.1183.3368.880.000.04
DukeACC0.450.1187.5078.680.330.06
IllinoisB100.000.1157.1442.660.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1183.3375.060.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1171.4366.530.000.04
St. John'sBE0.960.1128.5733.92-0.41-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1171.4356.050.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0950.0056.430.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.600.0914.2928.66-0.43-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0925.0030.93-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.090.0034.01-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.09100.0069.770.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0061.810.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0021.30-0.00-0.05
TulaneAmer0.000.0914.2926.81-0.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.600.0960.0039.200.12-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0850.0046.670.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0860.0051.780.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0842.8637.25-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0840.0030.80-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0828.5750.51-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.600.0814.2947.44-0.43-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0816.6718.96-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.510.0833.3338.76-0.17-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0024.19-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0850.0029.280.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0842.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0871.4365.740.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
UtahP120.000.0875.0061.040.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0857.1448.860.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0875.0073.840.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.0850.0036.820.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.450.0885.7170.990.320.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0842.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0866.6751.460.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0820.0032.60-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0871.4366.220.000.03
PurdueB100.510.0871.4374.450.220.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0885.7169.010.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.100.000.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.0850.0064.840.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0056.71-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.600.0680.0068.320.360.02
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE1.110.0642.8640.94-0.16-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.600.0683.3378.430.400.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0075.690.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0583.3361.490.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0566.6772.440.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0580.0035.960.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0520.0048.38-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0557.1442.940.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0533.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.050.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0525.0024.66-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0533.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3358.080.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0585.7173.010.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0585.7165.670.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0571.4343.020.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0550.0052.140.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0075.010.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.510.0566.6765.810.170.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0585.7155.550.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0571.4356.280.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0533.3336.31-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0525.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0550.0053.560.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0528.5728.46-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0083.120.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
VMISC0.000.050.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0557.1444.160.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0571.4363.090.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6770.140.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.600.0340.0050.88-0.120.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0366.6754.420.200.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.510.0333.3345.58-0.17-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.510.0350.0058.980.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.510.0385.7174.430.360.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.510.0333.3340.39-0.17-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.510.0340.0050.71-0.100.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.510.0325.0063.95-0.260.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.510.0340.0055.44-0.100.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01