live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Baylor

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:58.5
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:67
Current Record:11-7
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-812.60.09%
21-918.31.07%
20-1025.74.03%
19-1134.710.62%
18-1244.218.09%
17-1354.523.50%
16-1465.821.41%
15-1580.013.49%
14-1697.05.80%
13-17114.91.60%
12-18135.90.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Baylor.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH107-66W100%0.0
11-13Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.4)SlndH70-46W100%0.0
11-17Alcorn St. (342.9)SWACH78-61W100%0.0
11-20Wisconsin (130.2)B10N65-70W100%0.0
11-21Creighton (29.1)BEN65-59W100%0.0
11-28Xavier (6.2)BEA76-63L0%0.0
12-2Wichita St. (17.9)AmerH62-69L0%0.0
12-4Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndH84-56W100%0.0
12-14Texas Southern (208.4)SWACH99-68W100%0.0
12-17Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH118-86W100%0.0
12-20Southern (302.3)SWACH80-60W100%0.0
12-29Texas Tech (25.9)B12A77-53L0%0.0
1-2TCU (28.3)B12H78-81L0%0.0
1-6Texas (46.5)B12H69-60W100%0.0
1-9West Virginia (15.9)B12A57-54L0%0.0
1-13Iowa St. (106.2)B12A75-65L0%0.0
1-15Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12H76-60W100%0.0
1-20Kansas (5.9)B12A70-67L0%0.0
1-22Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-066%4.7
1-27Florida (25.9)SECA0-034%-4.7
1-30Oklahoma (22.4)B12A0-035%-4.3
2-3Iowa St. (106.2)B12H0-080%9.4
2-6Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12A0-053%0.9
2-10Kansas (5.9)B12H0-038%-3.3
2-12Texas (46.5)B12A0-043%-2.0
2-17Texas Tech (25.9)B12H0-052%0.7
2-20West Virginia (15.9)B12H0-042%-2.2
2-24TCU (28.3)B12A0-037%-3.8
2-27Oklahoma (22.4)B12H0-058%2.1
3-3Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Baylor's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Baylor's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Baylor.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
BaylorB1226.3726.3256.0652.573.201.35
Texas TechB123.154.2377.7871.671.751.83
Oklahoma St.B123.074.2372.2256.211.370.53
Iowa St.B123.234.2358.8246.360.57-0.31
KansasB123.224.2383.3379.662.152.51
TCUB123.074.2372.2264.491.371.23
OklahomaB120.514.2277.7868.920.281.60
Kansas St.B120.444.2073.6863.960.211.17
TexasB123.224.2066.6759.621.070.81
West VirginiaB123.074.2083.3378.122.052.36
Texas SouthernSWAC3.091.8922.2245.73-1.72-0.16
Alcorn St.SWAC3.071.8913.3326.45-2.25-0.89
Wichita St.Amer2.931.8077.7876.581.630.96
Central ArkansasSlnd3.061.7947.3750.97-0.160.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.951.7946.6750.99-0.200.04
SouthernSWAC2.851.7829.4142.43-1.17-0.27
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.931.768.3324.25-2.45-0.90
CreightonBE2.931.7578.9573.131.700.81
XavierBE2.921.7585.0079.412.041.03
Savannah St.MEAC2.921.7529.4135.73-1.20-0.50
WisconsinB102.841.6952.6347.800.15-0.07
FloridaSEC0.001.6773.6871.730.000.72
TulsaAmer0.290.2555.0053.290.030.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.230.2452.9452.620.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.270.237.1414.82-0.23-0.16
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.230.0010.65-0.31-0.18
Texas A&MSEC0.220.2268.4263.980.080.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.215.8819.37-0.14-0.13
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.2016.6724.29-0.10-0.10
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1936.8435.55-0.02-0.06
NorthwesternB100.140.1955.0050.370.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1710.5316.75-0.07-0.12
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1730.0036.48-0.07-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.240.1736.8444.12-0.06-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.240.1738.8943.43-0.05-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.240.1721.0539.47-0.14-0.04
MarquetteBE0.210.1668.4260.530.080.03
ButlerBE0.210.1666.6763.070.070.04
Seton HallBE0.280.1675.0067.890.140.06
AlabamaSEC0.070.1668.4258.990.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1625.0028.02-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.070.1673.6867.950.030.06
LamarSlnd0.260.1650.0054.850.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.157.6920.09-0.13-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1580.0078.860.000.09
MississippiSEC0.190.1452.6345.860.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1466.6755.930.040.02
YaleIvy0.300.1441.1847.51-0.05-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1489.4785.520.110.10
UCFAmer0.150.1468.4260.880.060.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1468.4264.200.000.04
MissouriSEC0.150.1466.6763.200.050.04
GonzagaWCC0.220.1480.9583.260.130.09
NebraskaB100.210.1466.6759.780.070.03
Arizona St.P120.140.1378.9576.130.080.07
New OrleansSlnd0.180.1337.5045.22-0.04-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.290.1245.0045.02-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1250.0051.480.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.1252.9455.040.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.230.1147.0652.51-0.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1127.7831.67-0.06-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.220.1115.7920.92-0.15-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1110.0019.62-0.12-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1129.4139.62-0.06-0.02
IowaB100.150.1147.6244.03-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.140.1165.0063.830.040.03
DukeACC0.150.1189.4785.190.120.08
VirginiaACC0.220.1194.4485.440.200.08
DePaulBE0.070.1142.1134.32-0.01-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.1168.4254.090.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.210.1170.0060.460.080.02
SMUAmer0.150.1170.0070.630.060.05
St. John'sBE0.140.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.1194.7490.310.060.09
AmericanPat0.070.1126.3228.14-0.03-0.05
NevadaMWC0.150.1185.7182.070.100.07
Oral RobertsSum0.070.1130.0032.53-0.03-0.04
PittsburghACC0.150.1140.0030.87-0.03-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1161.1151.900.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1135.2940.48-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0928.5731.270.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.110.0941.1839.65-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.170.0961.1153.160.040.01
TulaneAmer0.160.0963.1657.900.040.01
Little RockSB0.230.0922.2225.26-0.13-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.140.0820.0041.76-0.09-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.089.5217.94-0.12-0.05
IllinoisB100.150.0847.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.0083.180.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.150.0864.7159.980.040.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.0845.0047.05-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.210.0823.5328.70-0.11-0.04
TempleAmer0.070.0852.6351.730.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0872.2268.920.000.03
UCLAP120.210.0865.0062.040.060.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.0872.2272.970.060.04
UMKCWAC0.070.0821.0524.71-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.070.0811.1117.96-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.070.0873.6869.610.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0875.0070.270.040.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0829.4138.15-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.150.0861.9065.160.030.02
StanfordP120.070.0855.0050.370.010.00
SyracuseACC0.150.0868.4261.270.050.02
ToledoMAC0.150.0866.6767.690.050.03
Washington St.P120.070.0850.0042.180.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.0666.6765.620.050.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.760.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0643.7554.09-0.010.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.0677.7879.160.080.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.0668.4263.640.050.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0633.3337.22-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.750.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0678.9576.970.040.03
CaliforniaP120.140.0636.8431.12-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.150.0678.9572.990.080.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.640.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1839.13-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0627.7827.300.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0671.4368.300.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0642.8635.25-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4445.98-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0571.4374.650.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0568.4255.060.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0584.2173.210.050.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0516.6724.91-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0552.9459.360.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0540.0043.34-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0526.6729.04-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0552.6355.290.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0510.5314.86-0.06-0.04
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0521.99-0.04-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0545.0048.56-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.070.0538.8942.60-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0511.1115.300.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.140.0580.9576.520.090.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0510.5318.34-0.06-0.03
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.380.060.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0511.1117.69-0.06-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.900.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0573.6872.360.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0542.1143.500.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0566.6768.700.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0557.8953.190.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0530.0039.930.00-0.01
VCUA100.070.0560.0059.690.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0570.0061.440.030.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.030.01
Texas St.SB0.110.0357.8950.210.020.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0362.5058.700.020.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0364.7166.850.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0333.3332.96-0.03-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0366.6766.010.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.440.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.150.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0366.6765.360.030.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0310.5327.31-0.06-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.220.030.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.350.050.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0370.0068.420.030.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.710.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.52-0.04-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.490.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.050.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.230.050.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.12-0.07-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0341.1843.410.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0325.0028.250.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0377.7871.650.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.320.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0363.6457.640.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.940.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.770.020.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.370.020.01
RutgersB100.070.0357.8947.140.01-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.070.0329.4130.67-0.03-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00