live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:71.0
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:152
Current SOS:152
Current Record:23-9
Expected Record:23-9
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-971.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH78-70W100%0.0
11-22Colorado (116.0)P12H56-33W100%0.0
11-24Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH66-45W100%0.0
11-26Stetson (335.0)ASunH65-41W100%0.0
11-29New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH78-75W100%0.0
12-2Denver (232.0)SumH68-42W100%0.0
12-5SMU (12.0)AmerA66-53L0%0.0
12-10California (95.0)P12A45-42L0%0.0
12-14Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH70-61W100%0.0
12-20Southern (223.0)SWACH57-39W100%0.0
12-23Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA51-61W100%0.0
12-31UNLV (114.0)MWCH76-71W100%0.0
1-3San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA59-64W100%0.0
1-7Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA54-60W100%0.0
1-10Boise St. (40.0)MWCH65-54W100%0.0
1-14San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH52-60L0%0.0
1-17Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA65-70W100%0.0
1-24New Mexico (172.0)MWCH63-62W100%0.0
1-27Utah St. (143.0)MWCA56-44L0%0.0
1-31Nevada (306.0)MWCH63-55W100%0.0
2-4Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH59-48W100%0.0
2-7Air Force (240.0)MWCA73-50L0%0.0
2-11San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA67-41L0%0.0
2-14San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH77-60W100%0.0
2-17Nevada (306.0)MWCA58-64W100%0.0
2-25Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH59-64L0%0.0
2-28UNLV (114.0)MWCA69-57L0%0.0
3-4Utah St. (143.0)MWCH76-53W100%0.0
3-7New Mexico (172.0)MWCA52-49L0%0.0
3-12Utah St. (143.0)MWCN67-65W100%0.0
3-13Boise St. (40.0)MWCN66-71W100%0.0
3-14San Diego St. (26.0)MWCN43-45W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC26.5326.5373.0873.0812.2512.25
San Diego St.MWC5.585.5876.6776.672.982.98
Utah St.MWC5.485.4859.2659.261.021.02
Colorado St.MWC4.204.2086.6786.673.083.08
UNLVMWC4.124.1253.3353.330.270.27
Fresno St.MWC4.094.0942.8642.86-0.58-0.58
Boise St.MWC4.074.0779.3179.312.392.39
New MexicoMWC4.064.0648.2848.28-0.14-0.14
NevadaMWC4.064.0625.9325.93-1.96-1.96
San Jose St.MWC3.963.960.000.00-3.96-3.96
Montana St.BSky3.183.1822.2222.22-1.77-1.77
Air ForceMWC2.652.6539.2939.29-0.57-0.57
Northern ColoradoBSky1.821.8248.1548.15-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC1.791.7970.0070.000.720.72
CaliforniaP121.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
ColoradoP121.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC1.671.677.147.14-1.43-1.43
StetsonASun1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
DenverSum1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
SMUAmer1.561.5680.6580.650.960.96
SouthernSWAC1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.300.3036.6736.67-0.08-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.290.2917.8617.86-0.19-0.19
MontanaBSky0.290.2960.0060.000.060.06
Weber St.BSky0.270.2739.2939.29-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.240.2491.1891.180.200.20
USCP120.220.2237.5037.50-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.220.2251.6151.610.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.210.2132.1432.14-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
UC DavisBW0.190.1979.3179.310.110.11
IdahoBSky0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Washington St.P120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
PortlandWCC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Arizona St.P120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
SeattleWAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0762.9662.960.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TexasB120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01