live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:135.0
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:126
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:132
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14135.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH78-60W100%0.0
11-13Colorado (34.0)P12A63-58L0%0.0
11-16Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH85-64W100%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH73-65W100%0.0
11-22South Dakota (255.0)SumH70-53W100%0.0
11-25Ohio St. (24.0)B10A65-50L0%0.0
11-30Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH79-54W100%0.0
12-7South Dakota (255.0)SumN66-67W100%0.0
12-15Denver (139.0)SumA64-61L0%0.0
12-20SMU (53.0)AmerH54-62L0%0.0
12-22Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH72-59W100%0.0
1-4Nevada (137.0)MWCA61-58L0%0.0
1-8New Mexico (12.0)MWCH69-72L0%0.0
1-11Boise St. (82.0)MWCA50-52W100%0.0
1-18San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH67-56W100%0.0
1-22Air Force (251.0)MWCA59-66W100%0.0
1-25Nevada (137.0)MWCH64-62W100%0.0
1-29Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA67-62L0%0.0
2-1Utah St. (116.0)MWCH74-57W100%0.0
2-5New Mexico (12.0)MWCA66-61L0%0.0
2-8UNLV (108.0)MWCA48-46L0%0.0
2-11San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH68-62W100%0.0
2-15San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA38-46W100%0.0
2-18Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH72-66W100%0.0
2-22Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA82-67L0%0.0
2-25Air Force (251.0)MWCH53-55L0%0.0
3-1Boise St. (82.0)MWCH63-72L0%0.0
3-5Utah St. (116.0)MWCA65-54L0%0.0
3-8Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH83-75W100%0.0
3-13UNLV (108.0)MWCA71-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC26.3626.3651.6751.670.880.88
Air ForceMWC4.304.3034.6234.62-1.32-1.32
Boise St.MWC4.304.3060.0060.000.860.86
Colorado St.MWC4.284.2846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
New MexicoMWC4.284.2880.6580.652.622.62
Fresno St.MWC4.264.2648.2848.28-0.15-0.15
UNLVMWC4.254.2558.0658.060.690.69
NevadaMWC4.224.2246.6746.67-0.28-0.28
Utah St.MWC4.224.2255.1755.170.440.44
San Jose St.MWC4.194.1918.5218.52-2.64-2.64
South DakotaSum3.483.4836.0036.00-0.97-0.97
San Diego St.MWC2.742.7490.0090.002.192.19
DenverSum1.911.9148.2848.28-0.07-0.07
ColoradoP121.871.8766.6766.670.620.62
Jackson St.SWAC1.811.8136.6736.67-0.48-0.48
Tennessee MartinOVC1.801.8021.4321.43-1.03-1.03
Northern ColoradoBSky1.781.7857.1457.140.250.25
Arkansas St.SB1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
Montana St.BSky1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Ohio St.B101.671.6772.7372.730.760.76
SMUAmer1.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
Weber St.BSky0.310.3160.7160.710.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.2848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.250.253.573.57-0.23-0.23
Western IllinoisSum0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.2378.5778.570.130.13
Portland St.BSky0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
CaliforniaP120.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.1867.8667.860.070.07
IPFWSum0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
IUPUISum0.180.1810.3410.34-0.14-0.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
PacificWCC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.120.12
UC RiversideBW0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1430.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
TroySB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Arizona St.P120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01