Wyoming

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	75.0
Current RPI:	75
Expected SOS:	54
Current SOS:	54
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	12-0
Expected OOC Record:	12-0
Expected OOC RPI:	18
Expected OOC SOS:	192

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	75.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	73-60	W	100%
11-15	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	71-51	W	100%
11-16	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	67-60	W	100%
11-21	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	A	60-69	W	100%
11-24	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	63-49	W	100%
11-28	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	40-68	W	100%
12-1	Colorado (38.0)	P12	H	76-69	W	100%
12-4	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	67-81	W	100%
12-18	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	71-61	W	100%
12-21	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	56-40	W	100%
1-2	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	56-59	W	100%
1-9	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	61-63	L	0%
1-12	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	48-59	W	100%
1-16	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	49-36	L	0%
1-19	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	58-45	W	100%
1-24	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	62-50	L	0%
1-26	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	48-57	L	0%
1-30	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	59-63	L	0%
2-2	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	65-46	L	0%
2-6	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	53-61	W	100%
2-9	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	68-61	L	0%
2-13	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	68-48	W	100%
2-16	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	55-51	W	100%
2-19	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	79-51	L	0%
2-23	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	42-65	L	0%
2-26	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	72-66	L	0%
3-2	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	53-42	L	0%
3-6	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	56-78	L	0%
3-12	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	N	85-81	W	100%
3-13	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	N	59-46	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wyoming	MWC	26.61	26.61	55.80	55.80	3.09	3.09
New Mexico	MWC	5.95	5.95	83.87	83.87	4.03	4.03
Nevada	MWC	5.82	5.82	40.74	40.74	-1.08	-1.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.47	4.47	70.97	70.97	1.87	1.87
Colorado St.	MWC	4.47	4.47	72.41	72.41	2.00	2.00
San Diego St.	MWC	4.46	4.46	67.86	67.86	1.59	1.59
Boise St.	MWC	4.32	4.32	62.96	62.96	1.12	1.12
Fresno St.	MWC	4.28	4.28	30.77	30.77	-1.65	-1.65
Air Force	MWC	4.28	4.28	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.49	3.49	41.67	41.67	-0.58	-0.58
UC Santa Barbara	BW	3.47	3.47	33.33	33.33	-1.16	-1.16
Colorado	P12	1.84	1.84	67.74	67.74	0.65	0.65
Southern	SWAC	1.73	1.73	71.43	71.43	0.74	0.74
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.73	1.73	70.37	70.37	0.70	0.70
South Dakota	Sum	1.73	1.73	29.63	29.63	-0.70	-0.70
Illinois St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Denver	WAC	1.72	1.72	72.41	72.41	0.77	0.77
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.72	1.72	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.33	0.33	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Pacific	BW	0.32	0.32	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
UC Irvine	BW	0.31	0.31	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.29	0.29	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.26	0.26	14.29	14.29	-0.19	-0.19
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.26	0.26	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
California	P12	0.25	0.25	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Long Beach St.	BW	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Utah Valley	GWC	0.19	0.19	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.18	0.18	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.16	0.16	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.15	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	79.31	79.31	0.08	0.08
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.13	0.13	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01