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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:100
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:55



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18187.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA70-55L0%0.0
11-22Montana St. (260.0)BSkyN83-82L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH68-64W100%0.0
11-28Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH82-68W100%0.0
12-2Denver (188.0)SumA52-68W100%0.0
12-5California (16.0)P12H72-78L0%0.0
12-10Southern (186.0)SWACH58-68L0%0.0
12-13New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA59-62W100%0.0
12-19Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH76-75W100%0.0
12-21Marshall (128.0)CUSAN82-90L0%0.0
12-22Houston (87.0)AmerN89-94L0%0.0
12-30San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA67-55L0%0.0
1-2Nevada (118.0)MWCA71-68L0%0.0
1-6Air Force (226.0)MWCH64-52W100%0.0
1-9UNLV (147.0)MWCH59-57W100%0.0
1-13San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA62-55L0%0.0
1-16New Mexico (141.0)MWCA68-70W100%0.0
1-20Nevada (118.0)MWCH69-75L0%0.0
1-23Boise St. (101.0)MWCH71-81L0%0.0
1-26Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA71-60L0%0.0
1-30Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH83-76W100%0.0
2-2Air Force (226.0)MWCA70-62L0%0.0
2-6Utah St. (151.0)MWCH84-65W100%0.0
2-13Boise St. (101.0)MWCA94-71L0%0.0
2-17Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH75-79L0%0.0
2-20Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA66-84W100%0.0
2-24San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH61-73L0%0.0
2-27UNLV (147.0)MWCA79-74L0%0.0
3-2San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH81-78W100%0.0
3-9Utah St. (151.0)MWCN70-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC26.3726.3737.6837.68-6.50-6.50
Colorado St.MWC4.364.3653.3353.330.290.29
San Diego St.MWC4.354.3570.0070.001.741.74
Fresno St.MWC4.354.3570.0070.001.741.74
San Jose St.MWC4.314.3119.2319.23-2.65-2.65
NevadaMWC4.284.2853.5753.570.310.31
Air ForceMWC4.264.2639.2939.29-0.91-0.91
Utah St.MWC4.264.2648.1548.15-0.16-0.16
UNLVMWC4.264.2651.7251.720.150.15
Boise St.MWC4.214.2157.1457.140.600.60
Montana St.BSky3.543.5442.8642.86-0.51-0.51
New MexicoMWC2.712.7154.8454.840.260.26
New Mexico St.WAC1.861.8670.0070.000.740.74
Nebraska OmahaSum1.831.8357.1457.140.260.26
DenverSum1.811.8153.3353.330.120.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.801.8075.0075.000.900.90
CaliforniaP121.721.7268.7568.750.640.64
SouthernSWAC1.701.7060.0060.000.340.34
HoustonAmer1.671.6770.0070.000.670.67
Indiana St.MVC1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
MarshallCUSA1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.270.2779.3179.310.160.16
ArizonaP120.270.2775.7675.760.140.14
Utah ValleyWAC0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
MontanaBSky0.230.2362.0762.070.050.05
SeattleWAC0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
OregonP120.210.2181.8281.820.130.13
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.2018.5218.52-0.12-0.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.2010.7110.71-0.15-0.15
Portland St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
ColoradoP120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
IdahoBSky0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
UMKCWAC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1614.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Oregon St.P120.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
North DakotaBSky0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00