Wyoming

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	55.5
Current RPI:	69
Expected SOS:	98
Current SOS:	132
Current Record:	16-5
Expected Record:	20-8
Current Conf Record:	4-3
Expected Conf Record:	8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	5.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC Record:	12-2
Expected OOC RPI:	71
Expected OOC SOS:	295

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-5	26.9	0.40%
22-6	33.2	4.80%
21-7	41.7	20.38%
20-8	51.8	34.86%
19-9	64.1	28.97%
18-10	79.7	9.22%
17-11	95.3	1.32%
16-12	114.0	0.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	H	75-56	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	52-44	L	0%	0.0
11-22	South Dakota (280.2)	Sum	H	67-56	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	H	65-51	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	73-43	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	73-58	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	H	74-41	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	H	66-49	W	100%	0.0
12-9	Colorado (75.2)	P12	A	54-65	W	100%	0.0
12-13	UC Irvine (260.2)	BW	H	58-48	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	57-46	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	A	56-80	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	A	70-76	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	H	73-49	W	100%	0.0
1-14	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	H	62-72	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	53-64	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	H	70-51	W	100%	0.0
1-24	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	H	42-52	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	64-75	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	58-52	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	H	68-66	W	100%	0.0
2-11	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	A	0-0		19%	-9.7
2-15	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	H	0-0		88%	12.9
2-18	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	0-0		49%	-0.2
2-22	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	0-0		39%	-3.1
2-25	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	H	0-0		80%	9.2
2-28	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	0-0		86%	11.8
3-3	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	0-0		19%	-9.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wyoming	MWC	26.41	26.47	74.73	71.05	13.06	11.14
Colorado St.	MWC	2.89	4.43	70.00	63.52	1.15	1.20
Boise St.	MWC	2.88	4.42	45.00	43.53	-0.29	-0.57
New Mexico	MWC	2.84	4.40	80.95	80.32	1.76	2.67
Air Force	MWC	2.83	4.38	50.00	45.18	0.00	-0.42
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.72	4.34	86.36	84.37	1.98	2.98
Texas Christian	MWC	2.72	4.33	55.00	48.99	0.27	-0.09
San Diego St.	MWC	2.72	4.33	85.00	77.86	1.90	2.41
Idaho St.	BSky	5.05	3.83	36.84	36.49	-1.33	-1.03
Utah Valley	GWC	4.82	3.60	60.00	62.30	0.96	0.89
Portland St.	BSky	2.83	2.14	45.00	47.49	-0.28	-0.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.77	2.07	31.58	32.80	-1.02	-0.71
Denver	SB	2.61	1.98	69.57	71.24	1.02	0.84
Colorado	P12	2.50	1.92	70.00	64.97	1.00	0.57
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.56	1.92	21.05	20.70	-1.48	-1.12
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.50	1.85	45.00	45.00	-0.25	-0.18
Bradley	MVC	2.38	1.79	25.00	25.69	-1.19	-0.87
South Dakota	Sum	2.38	1.79	27.78	30.04	-1.06	-0.71
UC Irvine	BW	2.38	1.79	36.84	36.62	-0.63	-0.48
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	2.38	1.79	31.58	37.05	-0.88	-0.46
Montana	BSky	0.45	0.39	70.00	73.28	0.18	0.18
North Dakota	GWC	0.44	0.38	33.33	41.31	-0.15	-0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.18	0.33	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.45	0.32	45.00	41.76	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.46	0.29	80.00	76.84	0.28	0.16
Southern California	P12	0.28	0.28	25.00	25.13	-0.14	-0.14
Chicago St.	GWC	0.23	0.26	4.76	9.95	-0.21	-0.21
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.23	0.26	19.05	24.61	-0.14	-0.13
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.35	0.26	13.64	16.14	-0.25	-0.18
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.23	0.26	30.00	33.20	-0.09	-0.09
California	P12	0.27	0.25	75.00	74.61	0.14	0.12
Seattle	ind	0.33	0.23	23.53	33.28	-0.18	-0.08
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.34	0.23	34.78	35.20	-0.10	-0.07
Utah St.	WAC	0.33	0.22	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.23	0.22	39.13	44.52	-0.05	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.28	0.22	69.57	68.90	0.11	0.08
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.16	0.19	25.00	28.52	-0.08	-0.08
Long Beach St.	BW	0.17	0.19	71.43	73.35	0.07	0.09
Utah	P12	0.23	0.19	18.18	15.01	-0.14	-0.13
Idaho	WAC	0.17	0.19	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.17	0.19	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.19	55.56	58.01	0.02	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.16	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.22	0.16	85.71	82.18	0.16	0.10
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.16	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.16	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.16	0.15	8.70	8.99	-0.13	-0.12
Nevada	WAC	0.16	0.15	80.95	76.42	0.10	0.08
Wichita St.	MVC	0.20	0.15	82.61	80.42	0.13	0.09
Oakland	Sum	0.17	0.14	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.18	0.14	45.45	44.30	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.12	0.13	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.18	0.13	17.39	19.81	-0.12	-0.08
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.13	21.05	22.46	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.16	0.13	5.26	7.30	-0.15	-0.11
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.13	35.00	37.47	-0.04	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.18	0.13	0.00	5.37	-0.18	-0.12
UC Riverside	BW	0.12	0.13	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.16	0.13	15.00	15.73	-0.12	-0.09
Houston	CUSA	0.16	0.13	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.13	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.23	0.13	59.09	57.76	0.04	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.13	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.18	0.13	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.13	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.13	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.13	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.17	0.12	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.12	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.12	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.08	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.11	0.09
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.12	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.12	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.10	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.10	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.10	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.10	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.10	69.57	65.15	0.06	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.12	0.10	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.10	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.10	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.10	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.09	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.12	0.09	27.27	26.95	-0.05	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.09	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.09	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.07	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.07	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.13	0.07	80.77	80.75	0.08	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.07	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.06	0.07	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.07	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.07	79.17	75.98	0.07	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.12	0.07	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.07	27.27	35.02	-0.05	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.07	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.07	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.03
Maine	AE	0.11	0.07	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.12	0.07	65.22	63.61	0.04	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.07	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.07	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.04	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.06	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.00	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00