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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:152.0
Current RPI:152
Expected SOS:142
Current SOS:142
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:83
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14152.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Montana (221.0)BSkyA72-73W100%0.0
11-19South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH77-67W100%0.0
11-22Pacific (223.0)WCCA73-65L0%0.0
11-25California (53.0)P12A71-61L0%0.0
11-30Denver (207.0)SumH82-70W100%0.0
12-3Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH81-73W100%0.0
12-10Montana (221.0)BSkyH85-83W100%0.0
12-17Cornell (270.0)IvyH97-78W100%0.0
12-19Troy (147.0)SBH72-66W100%0.0
12-22DePaul (239.0)BEN58-72W100%0.0
12-23USC (40.0)P12N94-92L0%0.0
12-28Air Force (250.0)MWCH84-72W100%0.0
12-31UNLV (242.0)MWCA81-75L0%0.0
1-4Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA85-70L0%0.0
1-11Utah St. (181.0)MWCH95-87W100%0.0
1-14Nevada (29.0)MWCH74-89L0%0.0
1-18San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA70-80W100%0.0
1-21New Mexico (86.0)MWCA78-71L0%0.0
1-25UNLV (242.0)MWCH66-65W100%0.0
1-28Boise St. (72.0)MWCH65-80L0%0.0
1-31San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA77-68L0%0.0
2-4Air Force (250.0)MWCA74-83W100%0.0
2-8Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH102-100W100%0.0
2-11Utah St. (181.0)MWCA81-74L0%0.0
2-14Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH73-78L0%0.0
2-18Boise St. (72.0)MWCA91-87L0%0.0
2-25New Mexico (86.0)MWCH82-71W100%0.0
2-28Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA78-76L0%0.0
3-4San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH74-62W100%0.0
3-8Air Force (250.0)MWCN68-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC26.4126.4151.6751.670.880.88
Air ForceMWC5.855.8532.1432.14-2.09-2.09
Colorado St.MWC4.294.2963.3363.331.141.14
San Jose St.MWC4.274.2746.1546.15-0.33-0.33
Fresno St.MWC4.254.2560.7160.710.910.91
Utah St.MWC4.234.2342.8642.86-0.60-0.60
Boise St.MWC4.204.2059.2659.260.780.78
UNLVMWC4.184.1833.3333.33-1.39-1.39
New MexicoMWC4.184.1855.1755.170.430.43
MontanaBSky3.423.4253.3353.330.230.23
NevadaMWC2.792.7981.8281.821.771.77
San Diego St.MWC2.782.7854.8454.840.270.27
DenverSum1.881.8855.1755.170.190.19
South Dakota St.Sum1.801.8051.6151.610.060.06
USCP121.801.8071.8871.880.790.79
PacificWCC1.751.7529.0329.03-0.73-0.73
CaliforniaP121.741.7462.5062.500.440.44
TroySB1.721.7260.6160.610.370.37
CornellIvy1.721.7225.9325.93-0.83-0.83
Northern IowaMVC1.691.6946.4346.43-0.12-0.12
DePaulBE1.671.6729.0329.03-0.70-0.70
OregonP120.340.3484.8584.850.240.24
Idaho St.BSky0.270.2713.3313.33-0.20-0.20
IdahoBSky0.270.2755.1755.170.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.240.2483.3383.330.160.16
ColoradoP120.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Arizona St.P120.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.210.2112.9012.90-0.15-0.15
Weber St.BSky0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
Washington St.P120.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
DrakeMVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.120.12
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1487.5087.500.100.10
XavierBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.8887.880.100.10
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
WashingtonP120.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
IUPUISum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.1096.9796.970.100.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
PennIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00