live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:190.3
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:111
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13125.00.03%
15-14139.90.69%
14-15156.35.84%
13-16171.918.71%
12-17187.032.17%
11-18201.529.00%
10-19215.611.78%
9-20229.11.77%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Indiana St. (132.8)MVCA70-55L0%0.0
11-22Montana St. (270.0)BSkyN83-82L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACH68-64W100%0.0
11-28Montana St. (270.0)BSkyH82-68W100%0.0
12-2Denver (213.1)SumA52-68W100%0.0
12-5California (49.1)P12H72-78L0%0.0
12-10Southern (176.1)SWACH58-68L0%0.0
12-13New Mexico St. (124.0)WACA59-62W100%0.0
12-19Nebraska Omaha (121.1)SumH76-75W100%0.0
12-21Marshall (132.8)CUSAN82-90L0%0.0
12-22Houston (99.4)AmerN89-94L0%0.0
12-30San Diego St. (55.3)MWCA67-55L0%0.0
1-2Nevada (129.7)MWCA71-68L0%0.0
1-6Air Force (247.0)MWCH64-52W100%0.0
1-9UNLV (110.5)MWCH59-57W100%0.0
1-13San Jose St. (299.1)MWCA62-55L0%0.0
1-16New Mexico (90.1)MWCA68-70W100%0.0
1-20Nevada (129.7)MWCH69-75L0%0.0
1-23Boise St. (79.5)MWCH71-81L0%0.0
1-26Fresno St. (138.2)MWCA71-60L0%0.0
1-30Colorado St. (188.2)MWCH83-76W100%0.0
2-2Air Force (247.0)MWCA70-62L0%0.0
2-6Utah St. (154.2)MWCH0-054%1.1
2-13Boise St. (79.5)MWCA0-016%-11.0
2-17Fresno St. (138.2)MWCH0-050%-0.1
2-20Colorado St. (188.2)MWCA0-032%-5.1
2-24San Diego St. (55.3)MWCH0-029%-6.0
2-27UNLV (110.5)MWCA0-013%-12.1
3-2San Jose St. (299.1)MWCH0-080%9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC26.5326.4139.0037.91-5.84-6.39
San Jose St.MWC3.094.4021.0519.57-1.79-2.68
Air ForceMWC5.104.3542.1133.94-0.81-1.40
NevadaMWC5.034.3552.9452.730.300.24
Fresno St.MWC2.894.3357.8955.970.460.52
Colorado St.MWC2.714.3352.6349.840.14-0.01
San Diego St.MWC2.784.3270.0069.721.111.70
UNLVMWC2.834.3255.0058.490.280.73
Boise St.MWC2.724.2965.0064.090.821.21
Montana St.BSky4.833.6736.8440.58-1.27-0.69
New MexicoMWC2.882.7566.6766.230.960.89
Utah St.MWC0.662.6847.3749.50-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC2.541.9166.6770.730.850.79
Nebraska OmahaSum2.491.8761.9061.680.590.44
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.381.8568.4270.210.880.75
DenverSum2.431.8554.5550.530.220.02
CaliforniaP122.331.7861.9060.540.550.38
SouthernSWAC2.321.7561.1164.900.520.52
HoustonAmer2.271.7271.4366.900.970.58
Indiana St.MVC2.271.7252.3853.720.110.13
MarshallCUSA2.271.7245.4548.91-0.21-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.430.3181.8281.010.270.19
ArizonaP120.270.2978.2677.230.150.16
Utah ValleyWAC0.270.2535.0035.36-0.08-0.07
MontanaBSky0.220.2455.5660.900.020.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.270.2430.0029.98-0.11-0.10
OregonP120.220.2381.8278.210.140.13
SeattleWAC0.220.2245.0042.81-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.390.2133.3339.27-0.13-0.05
South DakotaSum0.260.2139.1339.48-0.06-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.2161.9060.410.050.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.220.215.2610.18-0.20-0.17
ColoradoP120.320.2172.7366.970.150.07
IdahoBSky0.280.1957.1457.940.040.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1915.0015.65-0.11-0.13
Wichita St.MVC0.230.1876.1979.640.120.11
Oral RobertsSum0.200.1840.9143.01-0.04-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1815.7916.39-0.11-0.12
UMKCWAC0.220.1630.0034.84-0.09-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.1631.8232.32-0.08-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.160.1533.3329.23-0.05-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.1517.3921.76-0.14-0.09
IUPUISum0.200.1541.6740.25-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.154.7614.01-0.15-0.11
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1542.8651.33-0.020.00
UTEPCUSA0.210.1550.0050.040.000.00
Arizona St.P120.160.1552.1750.240.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1552.1754.140.010.01
RiceCUSA0.210.1425.0028.19-0.10-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.110.134.557.91-0.10-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.160.1247.8343.92-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.110.1272.7371.670.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.050.1242.1142.70-0.01-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.1268.4271.820.020.05
DrakeMVC0.220.1222.7324.85-0.12-0.06
HawaiiBW0.230.1283.3380.130.150.07
IPFWSum0.100.1273.9170.210.050.05
PacificWCC0.180.1221.0524.61-0.10-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1276.1976.220.080.06
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1227.7829.23-0.07-0.05
BradleyMVC0.050.128.709.77-0.04-0.10
Cal PolyBW0.110.1231.5836.16-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1273.9176.040.080.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1252.1747.620.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1240.9140.96-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1244.4446.94-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1237.5036.54-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1244.4448.52-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1275.0073.480.080.06
UC DavisBW0.160.1236.8434.20-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.170.1260.0054.590.030.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1238.1042.99-0.05-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1245.4541.98-0.01-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1210.0015.28-0.13-0.08
UtahP120.160.1272.7368.550.070.04
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0940.9138.03-0.01-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.0925.0029.52-0.08-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.0966.6765.410.050.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.0947.6257.27-0.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.0950.0053.090.000.01
TulaneAmer0.110.0933.3332.41-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.160.0926.3236.93-0.08-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.0940.9139.22-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0956.5253.350.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.0981.8278.720.070.05
TulsaAmer0.100.0963.6459.950.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0947.6247.96-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0665.2256.530.020.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0657.1457.560.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.2944.50-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0626.3233.83-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0621.7424.60-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.0636.8432.84-0.03-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.0657.8957.330.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0616.6720.71-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0650.0056.540.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.0685.0085.230.080.04
BYUWCC0.050.0669.5773.030.020.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.0958.550.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.55-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.0086.120.040.04
ArmyPat0.110.0654.5556.020.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.110.0657.1457.510.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0610.0014.87-0.05-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0682.6177.370.040.03
KansasB120.050.0680.9577.000.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0659.0955.550.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0633.3332.69-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0682.6181.380.040.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0666.6767.310.020.02
Ohio St.B100.110.0658.3354.120.020.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0659.0958.100.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0652.3848.890.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.110.0666.6762.710.040.02
The CitadelSC0.110.0635.0031.39-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0623.8125.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0072.220.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0640.0049.74-0.02-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0673.9173.090.020.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0672.7372.440.020.03
SMUAmer0.100.0690.4885.550.080.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.8320.11-0.06-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0661.9058.420.010.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.0047.170.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0636.3642.19-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.0669.5768.670.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0670.0068.920.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0654.5561.950.000.01
StanfordP120.050.0652.6347.690.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0681.8278.320.030.03
USCP120.050.0678.2673.130.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0638.1033.45-0.01-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0333.3332.01-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0372.7369.920.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0376.1967.350.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0338.8943.22-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0342.8641.75-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0336.3630.98-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0310.5325.37-0.05-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.190.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0368.1865.420.020.01
LipscombASun0.050.0321.7427.64-0.03-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0361.9062.050.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0335.0034.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0380.9583.050.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.70-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0354.5555.990.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8279.750.030.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0342.8637.19-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.7922.51-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0357.8955.400.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0353.3355.180.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.770.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.3854.240.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0330.0029.46-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
PurdueB100.050.0382.6178.230.030.02
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.680.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3333.64-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0314.2913.97-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.01
WashingtonP120.000.0368.1862.190.000.01