Wyoming

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	98.0
Current RPI:	98
Expected SOS:	98
Current SOS:	98
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-2
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	52
Expected OOC SOS:	53

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	98.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	74-65	W	100%
11-13	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	66-75	W	100%
11-20	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	N	77-65	W	100%
11-21	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	N	70-61	W	100%
11-22	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	N	78-53	L	0%
11-29	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	88-78	L	0%
12-2	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	96-89	W	100%
12-6	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	A	80-64	L	0%
12-9	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	86-72	W	100%
12-12	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	93-88	W	100%
12-16	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	72-66	W	100%
12-19	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	84-91	L	0%
12-27	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	82-69	W	100%
1-3	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	92-83	L	0%
1-6	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	79-78	W	100%
1-10	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	75-66	L	0%
1-13	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	73-78	L	0%
1-20	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	77-85	W	100%
1-24	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	104-103	W	100%
1-27	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	86-90	W	100%
1-31	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	86-91	W	100%
2-3	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	62-80	L	0%
2-7	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	83-65	W	100%
2-10	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	85-70	L	0%
2-14	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	87-77	L	0%
2-17	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	89-75	W	100%
2-20	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	114-119	L	0%
2-24	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	68-78	W	100%
2-28	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	66-54	W	100%
3-3	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	95-87	L	0%
3-7	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	N	74-61	W	100%
3-8	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	N	85-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wyoming	MWC	26.40	26.40	58.45	58.45	4.46	4.46
New Mexico	MWC	5.55	5.55	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	5.45	5.45	11.54	11.54	-4.19	-4.19
Utah St.	MWC	4.10	4.10	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
San Diego St.	MWC	4.08	4.08	68.97	68.97	1.55	1.55
Nevada	MWC	4.04	4.04	81.25	81.25	2.52	2.52
Colorado St.	MWC	4.00	4.00	31.03	31.03	-1.52	-1.52
Fresno St.	MWC	3.94	3.94	64.29	64.29	1.13	1.13
Boise St.	MWC	3.94	3.94	75.00	75.00	1.97	1.97
UNLV	MWC	2.61	2.61	59.38	59.38	0.49	0.49
Air Force	MWC	2.54	2.54	35.71	35.71	-0.73	-0.73
Denver	Sum	1.75	1.75	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.66	1.66	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Pacific	WCC	1.66	1.66	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.64	1.64	82.76	82.76	1.08	1.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Drake	MVC	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	1.56	1.56	26.67	26.67	-0.73	-0.73
Cincinnati	Amer	1.56	1.56	87.88	87.88	1.18	1.18
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.56	1.56	83.33	83.33	1.04	1.04
Oregon St.	P12	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	1.56	1.56	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.56	1.56	45.45	45.45	-0.14	-0.14
South Dakota	Sum	0.32	0.32	73.33	73.33	0.15	0.15
Southern Utah	BSky	0.28	0.28	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado	P12	0.28	0.28	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	16.67	16.67	-0.15	-0.15
Oregon	P12	0.23	0.23	64.71	64.71	0.07	0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.19	0.19	83.33	83.33	0.13	0.13
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
San Diego	WCC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.17	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.16	0.16	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Arizona	P12	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
TCU	B12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Valparaiso	MVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02