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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:153.4
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:226
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:283



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-525.00.02%
22-640.20.10%
21-754.60.43%
20-867.01.82%
19-982.33.64%
18-1098.67.64%
17-11115.113.23%
16-12134.716.76%
15-13154.417.78%
14-14174.915.72%
13-15196.011.13%
12-16217.07.00%
11-17236.63.24%
10-18256.41.06%
9-19269.70.36%
8-20284.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Montana (243.3)BSkyA72-73W100%0.0
11-19South Dakota St. (240.0)SumH77-67W100%0.0
11-22Pacific (171.2)WCCA73-65L0%0.0
11-25California (71.4)P12A71-61L0%0.0
11-30Denver (246.0)SumH82-70W100%0.0
12-3Northern Iowa (117.4)MVCH81-73W100%0.0
12-10Montana (243.3)BSkyH0-073%7.3
12-17Cornell (264.7)IvyH0-083%11.7
12-19Troy (247.7)SBH0-081%10.8
12-22DePaul (205.8)BEN0-057%2.1
12-28Air Force (167.3)MWCH0-062%3.5
12-31UNLV (188.7)MWCA0-044%-1.9
1-4Fresno St. (197.2)MWCA0-049%-0.2
1-11Utah St. (122.3)MWCH0-054%1.1
1-14Nevada (46.4)MWCH0-036%-4.4
1-18San Jose St. (190.4)MWCA0-049%-0.3
1-21New Mexico (89.7)MWCA0-028%-7.0
1-25UNLV (188.7)MWCH0-064%4.3
1-28Boise St. (113.1)MWCH0-048%-0.6
1-31San Diego St. (64.0)MWCA0-019%-10.4
2-4Air Force (167.3)MWCA0-041%-2.8
2-8Fresno St. (197.2)MWCH0-069%6.1
2-11Utah St. (122.3)MWCA0-033%-5.2
2-14Colorado St. (95.8)MWCH0-049%-0.2
2-18Boise St. (113.1)MWCA0-028%-6.9
2-25New Mexico (89.7)MWCH0-048%-0.7
2-28Colorado St. (95.8)MWCA0-029%-6.5
3-4San Jose St. (190.4)MWCH0-069%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC28.5226.4172.7352.2012.961.16
San Jose St.MWC0.604.5250.0041.530.00-0.77
Air ForceMWC0.004.4757.1448.480.00-0.14
Colorado St.MWC0.004.4771.4360.520.000.94
Boise St.MWC0.004.4742.8655.60-0.000.50
Fresno St.MWC0.004.4766.6739.980.00-0.90
UNLVMWC0.004.4562.5043.640.00-0.57
New MexicoMWC0.004.4462.5058.190.000.73
Utah St.MWC0.004.4342.8649.55-0.00-0.04
MontanaBSky8.333.6428.5750.49-3.570.04
NevadaMWC0.602.8177.7872.220.331.25
San Diego St.MWC0.602.8060.0068.670.121.05
DenverSum8.331.9850.0046.610.00-0.13
South Dakota St.Sum8.931.9128.5741.01-3.83-0.34
PacificWCC8.331.8833.3344.28-2.78-0.21
CaliforniaP128.851.8583.3360.925.900.40
TroySB0.001.8242.8636.82-0.00-0.48
CornellIvy0.001.8228.5730.47-0.00-0.71
Northern IowaMVC8.331.8240.0054.80-1.670.17
DePaulBE0.001.7966.6735.170.00-0.53
Idaho St.BSky0.000.3012.5029.15-0.00-0.13
OregonP120.000.3075.0072.250.000.13
IdahoBSky0.520.2450.0052.760.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.2475.0070.180.000.10
UC IrvineBW2.230.2150.0054.070.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2133.3346.38-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.600.2116.6749.65-0.40-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.190.0019.67-0.00-0.11
PortlandWCC0.000.1950.0054.070.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.1875.0062.620.000.05
Arizona St.P120.690.1862.5040.460.17-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.180.0024.64-0.00-0.09
Oral RobertsSum0.520.180.0022.31-0.52-0.10
South DakotaSum0.520.1850.0046.020.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky1.190.180.0022.01-1.19-0.10
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1675.0086.710.000.11
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1660.0058.590.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.15100.0089.330.000.12
Washington St.P120.520.1542.8628.98-0.07-0.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1525.0022.93-0.00-0.08
USCP120.520.15100.0076.680.520.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1516.6739.20-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.1571.4357.970.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.600.1571.4355.160.260.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0032.52-0.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1342.8650.11-0.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1333.3332.35-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1342.8644.71-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.1262.5066.900.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1260.0067.760.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1275.0066.410.000.04
XavierBE1.390.1287.5070.891.040.05
Fort WayneSum0.000.1271.4370.210.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1237.5051.64-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1242.8655.09-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1257.1458.940.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0016.68-0.00-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1257.1449.130.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1228.5742.90-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.1266.6758.060.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.1275.0068.370.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz1.040.1228.5732.62-0.45-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1242.8633.23-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.1250.0062.380.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1212.5023.75-0.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.000.1240.0043.41-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1071.4358.920.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1025.0063.27-0.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.600.0966.6757.300.200.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0942.8641.51-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0950.0041.540.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.920.000.08
San DiegoWCC0.000.0937.5031.23-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0942.8627.96-0.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.600.0957.1459.280.090.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.600.090.0034.27-0.60-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.600.0942.8650.12-0.090.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0950.0045.970.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.69-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0985.7153.560.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3354.32-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0971.4354.560.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.600.0928.5733.77-0.26-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0728.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0755.5646.970.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0742.8642.62-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.55-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0720.0046.79-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0733.3356.57-0.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0742.8663.41-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1450.080.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.58-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0048.030.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.390.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.600.06100.0086.690.600.04
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.990.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.370.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.400.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
MississippiSEC0.520.0675.0048.500.26-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.520.0675.0051.040.260.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3333.36-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0322.2238.49-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.690.0362.5046.900.17-0.00
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
OklahomaB120.690.0371.4348.350.30-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.83-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.520.0383.3379.850.350.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UMKCWAC0.520.0362.5052.330.130.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.600.0342.8651.95-0.090.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8645.44-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.600.0350.0071.020.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01