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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Wyoming

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:87.2
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:316
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-218.00.06%
26-321.00.28%
25-427.41.30%
24-537.63.61%
23-647.77.61%
22-759.614.07%
21-873.018.13%
20-987.718.14%
19-10104.215.91%
18-11119.511.05%
17-12136.75.86%
16-13155.42.66%
15-14174.00.97%
14-15193.40.29%
13-16203.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wyoming.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northern Colorado (203.7)BSkyH78-70W100%0.0
11-22Colorado (82.5)P12H56-33W100%0.0
11-24Florida A&M (347.3)MEACH66-45W100%0.0
11-26Stetson (310.1)ASunH65-41W100%0.0
11-29New Mexico St. (74.9)WACH0-060%2.9
12-2Denver (137.6)SumH0-078%9.2
12-5SMU (45.7)AmerA0-030%-6.2
12-10California (48.7)P12A0-024%-8.4
12-14Montana St. (311.6)BSkyH0-097%22.9
12-20Southern (302.4)SWACH0-096%21.1
12-23Montana St. (311.6)BSkyA0-090%15.7
12-31UNLV (125.0)MWCH0-076%8.3
1-3San Jose St. (307.3)MWCA0-083%11.6
1-7Colorado St. (54.8)MWCA0-037%-4.1
1-10Boise St. (85.7)MWCH0-067%5.2
1-14San Diego St. (17.7)MWCH0-035%-4.8
1-17Fresno St. (273.6)MWCA0-076%8.6
1-24New Mexico (133.3)MWCH0-072%6.9
1-27Utah St. (151.4)MWCA0-055%1.6
1-31Nevada (187.5)MWCH0-079%9.8
2-4Colorado St. (54.8)MWCH0-060%3.1
2-7Air Force (197.6)MWCA0-064%4.3
2-11San Diego St. (17.7)MWCA0-016%-12.0
2-14San Jose St. (307.3)MWCH0-094%18.7
2-17Nevada (187.5)MWCA0-059%2.7
2-25Fresno St. (273.6)MWCH0-091%15.8
2-28UNLV (125.0)MWCA0-054%1.2
3-4Utah St. (151.4)MWCH0-077%8.8
3-7New Mexico (133.3)MWCA0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wyoming's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wyoming's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wyoming.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WyomingMWC32.2926.42100.0068.6632.299.86
Colorado St.MWC0.004.42100.0069.520.001.72
Fresno St.MWC0.004.360.0023.47-0.00-2.31
New MexicoMWC0.004.3660.0056.770.000.59
NevadaMWC0.004.3625.0044.35-0.00-0.49
UNLVMWC0.004.3075.0052.870.000.25
Utah St.MWC0.004.3060.0056.650.000.57
San Diego St.MWC0.004.3083.3385.230.003.03
San Jose St.MWC0.004.290.0019.92-0.00-2.58
Montana St.BSky0.003.510.0021.70-0.00-1.99
Air ForceMWC1.562.7233.3345.83-0.52-0.23
Boise St.MWC0.002.6980.0064.060.000.76
Northern ColoradoBSky12.502.030.0054.31-12.500.17
New Mexico St.WAC5.732.0050.0073.060.000.92
ColoradoP1212.501.88100.0062.3212.500.46
CaliforniaP120.001.8880.0070.070.000.75
Florida A&MMEAC12.501.850.0019.07-12.50-1.14
StetsonASun12.501.850.0032.08-12.50-0.66
DenverSum0.001.7950.0062.190.000.44
SMUAmer0.001.7250.0065.150.000.52
SouthernSWAC0.001.720.0036.57-0.00-0.46
MontanaBSky0.000.3133.3351.01-0.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.300.0024.87-0.00-0.15
Weber St.BSky0.000.2725.0052.85-0.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2620.0038.42-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.000.24100.0055.210.000.03
USCP120.000.2350.0028.760.00-0.10
ArizonaP120.000.23100.0075.690.000.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2120.0050.03-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.210.0016.41-0.00-0.14
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2180.0074.900.000.10
Grand CanyonWAC1.040.2140.0046.02-0.21-0.02
UtahP120.000.2075.0073.450.000.10
UC DavisBW0.000.19100.0053.380.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1925.0033.19-0.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1850.0050.040.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.1833.3329.54-0.00-0.08
PortlandWCC0.000.18100.0051.720.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.1833.3351.34-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.1833.3348.27-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1875.0051.040.000.00
UCLAP120.000.1880.0063.410.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.180.0038.82-0.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.1760.0053.110.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1780.0070.970.000.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.1533.3335.63-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1366.6755.570.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1333.3339.69-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.1325.0044.95-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.12100.0056.970.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1250.0045.290.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.12100.0072.490.000.06
PacificWCC0.000.1233.3331.37-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0040.80-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1225.0051.07-0.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1225.0035.38-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0047.310.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3354.73-0.000.01
San DiegoWCC1.040.1275.0049.940.52-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.1250.0067.000.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1233.3338.74-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0061.080.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1260.0050.320.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.090.0045.69-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.58-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.0940.0052.52-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun1.040.0966.6751.210.350.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0916.6731.72-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0020.69-0.00-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0933.3330.11-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.47-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0966.6762.950.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0975.0045.520.00-0.01
UCFAmer1.560.0966.6740.010.52-0.02
ClemsonACC1.040.0960.0050.770.210.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6760.360.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.830.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0033.69-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0940.0038.45-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0933.3367.52-0.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6753.550.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0071.650.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.690.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.71-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0633.3354.15-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.50-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA1.560.0650.0042.970.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.51-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.99-0.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.55-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0044.930.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0015.65-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0042.16-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0064.150.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.110.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0069.010.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.64-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0068.330.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.230.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.81-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.070.000.05
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0033.15-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0068.710.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.580.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.68-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0066.35-0.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.60-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.330.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3350.63-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0055.460.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.29-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.520.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.31-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.060.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0086.460.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.440.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.13-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.25-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3359.02-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.880.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.310.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.260.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0024.69-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.410.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0051.010.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.78-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC1.560.0360.0037.550.31-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6726.420.00-0.01
DrexelCAA1.560.0320.0036.68-0.94-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.970.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4357.180.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0062.480.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.830.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.330.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.610.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0065.430.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0058.990.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.750.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0076.610.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.61-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.67-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0088.520.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0316.6745.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.23-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.110.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0036.41-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2931.08-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.610.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0052.150.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.87-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.91-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.900.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.63-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.900.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.270.000.02