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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:277.6
Current RPI:284
Expected SOS:309
Current SOS:312
Current Record:13-13
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:8-6
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13252.110.04%
14-14268.343.77%
13-15292.146.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11SIU Edwardsville (334.1)OVCH68-69L0%0.0
11-13Texas St. (203.4)SBH74-68W100%0.0
11-14Florida Atlantic (273.8)CUSAH64-63W100%0.0
11-18North Carolina (4.1)ACCH68-83L0%0.0
11-25Troy (192.3)SBH63-65L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (342.4)SWACH64-44W100%0.0
12-6Seton Hall (50.7)BEN57-68L0%0.0
12-7Princeton (51.9)IvyN62-75L0%0.0
12-22Illinois St. (30.3)MVCH45-71L0%0.0
12-23Utah (82.8)P12H52-66L0%0.0
12-25Southern Miss (330.3)CUSAH60-46W100%0.0
12-29Delaware St. (331.5)MEACH77-66W100%0.0
1-5Cal St. Fullerton (300.7)BWA67-64L0%0.0
1-7UC Irvine (147.4)BWA84-56L0%0.0
1-14Long Beach St. (219.2)BWH114-107W100%0.0
1-18Cal St. Northridge (273.0)BWH80-77W100%0.0
1-21UC Davis (192.9)BWH70-76L0%0.0
1-25UC Riverside (329.2)BWH64-70L0%0.0
1-28UC Santa Barbara (325.4)BWH78-56W100%0.0
2-2UC Riverside (329.2)BWA63-72W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Northridge (273.0)BWA72-76W100%0.0
2-9Cal Poly (288.8)BWH74-65W100%0.0
2-11UC Irvine (147.4)BWH58-72L0%0.0
2-16UC Santa Barbara (325.4)BWA56-54L0%0.0
2-18Cal Poly (288.8)BWA61-82W100%0.0
2-25Cal St. Fullerton (300.7)BWH64-58W100%0.0
3-2UC Davis (192.9)BWA0-031%-5.2
3-4Long Beach St. (219.2)BWA0-034%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.4026.4040.4841.26-5.03-4.61
Long Beach St.BW2.934.5039.2939.29-0.63-0.97
Cal PolyBW4.624.5033.3335.50-1.54-1.31
UC RiversideBW4.704.4921.7421.81-2.66-2.53
UC IrvineBW4.634.4850.0051.860.000.17
UC DavisBW2.824.4757.6956.460.430.58
Cal St. FullertonBW4.584.4647.8348.38-0.20-0.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.584.4643.4844.67-0.60-0.48
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.584.4613.0414.03-3.38-3.21
Texas St.SB2.071.9158.3356.950.340.27
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.031.8833.3331.61-0.68-0.69
UtahP122.001.8560.0060.540.400.39
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.001.8514.8114.81-1.41-1.30
PrincetonIvy2.001.8573.9174.810.960.92
TroySB2.001.8550.0049.620.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC1.961.8582.1480.581.261.13
Southern MissCUSA1.961.8226.9226.02-0.91-0.87
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.921.7922.2223.05-1.07-0.96
Delaware St.MEAC1.921.7925.9326.93-0.93-0.82
Illinois St.MVC1.921.7982.1482.141.241.15
Seton HallBE1.921.7962.9661.340.500.41
CaliforniaP120.290.3167.8666.480.100.10
UCLAP120.300.2989.6690.150.240.23
WashingtonP120.260.2532.1430.72-0.09-0.10
UTSACUSA0.260.2337.0436.94-0.07-0.06
PortlandWCC0.230.2027.5927.59-0.10-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.2053.5753.570.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.1967.8666.440.080.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1950.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.220.1944.4445.02-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1640.0041.50-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.150.1648.1546.78-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1663.3363.330.050.04
UABCUSA0.140.1650.0052.300.000.01
SeattleWAC0.150.1640.0039.27-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1662.0762.070.040.04
St. John'sBE0.180.1644.8343.89-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.1626.9228.27-0.08-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.150.1642.3142.60-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.150.1334.4833.87-0.05-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1372.0072.040.070.06
San DiegoWCC0.150.1341.3841.38-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1346.1546.13-0.01-0.01
USCP120.150.1372.4173.260.070.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1346.1546.81-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.140.1323.0822.49-0.08-0.07
RiceCUSA0.140.1366.6765.550.050.04
New MexicoMWC0.140.1355.1754.850.010.01
NevadaMWC0.150.1379.3179.090.090.07
PacificWCC0.150.1330.0030.00-0.06-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1257.6957.810.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1266.6765.850.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1244.4444.44-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1213.7913.43-0.08-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.110.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1229.6331.85-0.06-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1276.9276.820.060.07
DrakeMVC0.100.1221.4321.43-0.06-0.07
Little RockSB0.110.1242.3141.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.127.698.10-0.12-0.10
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1286.6786.670.070.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1280.7781.310.060.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1041.6741.50-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.120.1023.0823.48-0.06-0.05
DenverSum0.110.1055.1755.170.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1014.8114.35-0.08-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1051.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.1085.7186.430.050.07
SMUAmer0.110.1086.2186.520.080.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.1067.8668.870.030.04
Arizona St.P120.110.1046.6745.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1062.5062.610.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.100.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0924.0025.26-0.06-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.0944.4445.74-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0923.0824.04-0.04-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0950.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0955.5655.560.010.01
TulsaAmer0.100.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0974.0774.070.030.04
TulaneAmer0.110.0917.8618.08-0.07-0.06
IndianaB100.100.0955.1753.960.010.01
ArizonaP120.110.0986.6786.550.080.07
ButlerBE0.070.0979.3179.350.040.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0959.2658.100.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.0961.5460.990.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0936.0040.25-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.0960.7159.700.020.02
XavierBE0.110.0962.0762.620.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0932.1432.14-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0960.7163.340.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0979.3179.060.040.05
BrownIvy0.080.0738.4639.38-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0724.0022.79-0.02-0.04
HarvardIvy0.040.0769.5767.060.020.02
MontanaBSky0.080.0748.2848.65-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0728.0030.25-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.080.0748.0049.55-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.080.0758.3360.030.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0765.3865.550.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0714.8115.93-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.080.0761.2961.290.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0750.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.080.0745.8345.20-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0711.1111.98-0.06-0.05
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0753.5752.890.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0740.0041.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.7136.08-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0642.3142.27-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0653.5754.970.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0664.2964.650.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0644.8345.81-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0653.5753.810.010.00
ElonCAA0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0657.6957.830.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0686.2186.570.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0652.0053.480.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0644.4441.81-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0683.8783.870.050.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0625.9325.22-0.04-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0625.9326.04-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.070.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0648.1547.91-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0671.4369.290.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0633.3332.49-0.01-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0619.2319.72-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.040.0652.0053.420.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.060.001.83-0.07-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0676.0077.290.040.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0662.9662.960.010.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0625.0025.07-0.02-0.03
OaklandHorz0.040.0675.8675.860.020.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0636.0035.08-0.01-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.040.0656.0057.060.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0679.3177.540.040.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0655.1754.140.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0678.5778.180.040.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0654.1752.440.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0666.6765.560.010.02
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0074.570.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0631.0330.04-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0678.5778.180.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0640.0041.22-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0648.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0640.0042.28-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0689.6688.490.030.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0623.3323.33-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0617.2420.08-0.02-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0662.0762.540.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0689.6689.660.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.070.0646.1545.04-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0634.4834.12-0.01-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0644.4445.15-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0690.0089.570.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0667.8666.120.020.02
DukeACC0.030.0675.8674.140.020.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0651.7250.150.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0667.8668.150.010.02
BucknellPat0.040.0374.1974.190.020.02
BYUWCC0.040.0367.7467.740.010.01
LafayettePat0.040.0328.5728.57-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0360.7160.710.010.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0357.1457.140.010.00
VCUA100.040.0379.3178.000.020.02
HofstraCAA0.040.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0355.1754.740.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.7780.770.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0332.1431.69-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0320.8321.37-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0350.0049.680.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0355.5656.670.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0325.9325.17-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0319.2322.18-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0318.5220.52-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.1547.90-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.0035.98-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0330.7730.93-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0357.1456.900.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0351.8550.780.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.040.0311.1111.53-0.03-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0379.3179.350.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0355.1754.140.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0342.8642.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0371.4371.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0355.5655.160.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0331.0329.49-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0362.9663.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0350.0052.370.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0351.8551.280.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0353.5752.450.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0382.7682.930.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0375.8674.710.020.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.6757.420.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0051.170.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0371.4370.190.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0357.1455.730.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0375.8676.270.020.02