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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:244.5
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:143
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:12-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-5102.50.02%
19-698.50.10%
18-7115.70.61%
17-8139.31.54%
16-9161.93.94%
15-10186.17.98%
14-11206.813.23%
13-12230.516.48%
12-13251.818.49%
11-14271.516.03%
10-15290.011.12%
9-16305.26.46%
8-17319.72.98%
7-18330.00.81%
6-19336.80.18%
5-20340.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (310.7)SWACH85-57W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Bakersfield (305.6)WACH72-65W100%0.0
11-18High Point (142.1)BSthH54-62L0%0.0
11-21Pittsburgh (71.9)ACCN0-019%-10.3
11-24San Francisco (101.8)WCCN0-025%-8.0
12-2Delaware St. (253.0)MEACH0-074%7.9
12-6BYU (39.1)WCCN0-016%-12.0
12-22Nebraska (86.6)B10H0-031%-6.1
12-29Southern (255.6)SWACH0-073%7.5
1-7Cal Poly (225.1)BWH0-066%4.8
1-10Cal St. Northridge (216.3)BWH0-063%4.0
1-17UC Riverside (314.3)BWA0-060%2.9
1-22UC Davis (270.6)BWH0-070%6.5
1-24UC Irvine (122.8)BWH0-041%-2.8
1-29Cal St. Northridge (216.3)BWA0-040%-3.1
1-31Long Beach St. (115.9)BWA0-024%-8.3
2-5Cal Poly (225.1)BWA0-042%-2.3
2-7UC Santa Barbara (142.0)BWA0-024%-8.5
2-12UC Riverside (314.3)BWH0-080%10.1
2-14Cal St. Fullerton (260.4)BWH0-067%5.4
2-19UC Irvine (122.8)BWA0-020%-10.0
2-21UC Davis (270.6)BWA0-048%-0.7
2-26Long Beach St. (115.9)BWH0-046%-1.1
3-5UC Santa Barbara (142.0)BWH0-046%-1.3
3-7Cal St. Fullerton (260.4)BWA0-044%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW32.6426.4946.1543.47-2.51-3.46
Long Beach St.BW0.005.060.0045.11-0.00-0.49
UC RiversideBW0.005.060.0028.44-0.00-2.18
Cal PolyBW0.005.050.0033.81-0.00-1.63
Cal St. FullertonBW0.005.030.0039.04-0.00-1.10
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.005.0333.3345.38-0.00-0.46
UC DavisBW0.005.02100.0043.720.00-0.63
UC IrvineBW0.005.0250.0063.930.001.40
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.005.010.0054.34-0.000.43
San FranciscoWCC0.002.15100.0060.340.000.44
BYUWCC0.002.15100.0067.720.000.76
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC21.532.1450.0035.860.00-0.61
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC22.222.140.0032.08-22.22-0.77
High PointBSth21.532.07100.0056.3321.530.26
SouthernSWAC0.002.070.0045.54-0.00-0.18
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.0050.0044.150.00-0.23
NebraskaB100.002.00100.0051.120.000.04
PittsburghACC0.002.00100.0056.520.000.26
SeattleWAC0.000.3650.0053.850.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.30100.0071.430.000.13
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2950.0047.360.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2933.3328.73-0.00-0.12
PepperdineWCC0.000.28100.0050.890.000.01
San Diego St.MWC2.080.28100.0080.042.080.17
OregonP120.000.25100.0064.920.000.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.250.0038.34-0.00-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.22100.0087.640.000.17
San DiegoWCC0.000.2266.6749.560.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.2250.0030.220.00-0.09
NevadaMWC0.000.22100.0051.540.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2150.0046.970.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.21100.0051.640.000.01
UCLAP120.000.21100.0064.410.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.21100.0077.610.000.12
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.19100.0071.680.000.08
Fresno St.MWC0.000.190.0032.05-0.00-0.07
Washington St.P120.000.150.0032.60-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.150.0034.11-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.150.0042.76-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1533.3364.95-0.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.15100.0049.930.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.15100.0063.690.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1550.0043.010.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0070.580.000.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.140.0019.51-0.00-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1433.3350.61-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.140.0038.55-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.140.0062.68-0.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.140.0021.31-0.00-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1433.3335.35-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0016.22-0.00-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.140.0033.38-0.00-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.140.0066.74-0.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.1466.6770.630.000.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0038.86-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.140.0053.19-0.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.11100.0078.150.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.1150.0044.770.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.110.0030.64-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.110.0025.74-0.00-0.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1150.0062.330.000.03
UtahP120.000.1150.0063.450.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0028.74-0.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.1050.0056.950.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0035.01-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.1033.3333.83-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.08100.0063.800.000.02
KansasB120.000.0850.0060.040.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.08100.0068.990.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.08100.0044.490.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0833.3369.45-0.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0850.0066.190.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.070.0025.25-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.86-0.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0024.870.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0750.0061.050.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.210.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.070.0047.69-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0032.76-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3343.60-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0052.100.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0766.6755.190.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0056.020.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0073.880.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0750.0046.570.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0031.05-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0026.57-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0060.930.000.02
IowaB100.000.0766.6773.790.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0060.010.000.01
MarylandB100.000.07100.0067.780.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0046.120.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0053.570.000.01
TexasB120.000.07100.0084.350.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0028.940.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.510.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0056.380.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0081.830.000.05
XavierBE0.000.07100.0070.050.000.03
IndianaB100.000.07100.0064.540.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0066.390.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.07100.0053.320.000.00
StanfordP120.000.07100.0059.450.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0766.6741.230.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0029.01-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0044.790.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0063.68-0.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0725.0030.26-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0023.81-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0766.6761.240.000.02
USCP120.000.0733.3326.65-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0050.460.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0766.6747.950.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0750.0053.110.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0450.0051.650.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.04100.0068.310.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.04100.0059.190.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0466.6743.460.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0450.0043.990.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.040.0017.64-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.040.0049.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0450.0061.220.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.040.0036.86-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0450.0046.350.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.040.0050.29-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.04100.0070.330.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.040.0021.38-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.04100.0065.830.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0055.970.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.04100.0062.600.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.040.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.040.0041.07-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.04100.0061.300.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0450.0067.190.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.04100.0063.480.000.01
MichiganB100.000.04100.0067.240.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.040.0049.27-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0466.6760.300.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0450.0035.720.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0433.3351.93-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0433.3338.23-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0044.320.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0466.6746.550.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.04100.0061.020.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0450.0034.150.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.040.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0450.0035.660.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0450.0035.370.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.040.0059.82-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.04100.0055.290.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.610.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0051.350.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.060.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.69-0.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0050.010.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0061.790.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0032.81-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.740.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.030.0057.31-0.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0029.100.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0333.3329.88-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0044.49-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0067.660.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.58-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0070.180.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0034.44-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.99-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.10-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.28-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.330.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0055.09-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0057.150.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0045.040.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.03100.0043.270.00-0.00