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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:80.0
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:234
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:255



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-580.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH87-76W100%0.0
11-15Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH74-63W100%0.0
11-16Nevada (118.0)MWCH76-75W100%0.0
11-22Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH99-74W100%0.0
11-28Texas Tech (36.0)B12A82-74L0%0.0
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH75-47W100%0.0
12-22Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH68-52W100%0.0
12-23Oklahoma (6.0)B12H81-84L0%0.0
12-25Auburn (175.0)SECH79-67W100%0.0
12-29Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH77-48W100%0.0
1-2Howard (328.0)MEACH94-59W100%0.0
1-6Cal Poly (236.0)BWH86-73W100%0.0
1-9UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH65-57W100%0.0
1-14UC Riverside (267.0)BWA71-80W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA79-86W100%0.0
1-23UC Davis (281.0)BWH78-62W100%0.0
1-30Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH64-78L0%0.0
2-4UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA64-76W100%0.0
2-6Cal Poly (236.0)BWA60-75W100%0.0
2-11UC Irvine (75.0)BWH74-52W100%0.0
2-13Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH76-59W100%0.0
2-18Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA63-69W100%0.0
2-20UC Irvine (75.0)BWA71-75W100%0.0
2-25UC Riverside (267.0)BWH71-77L0%0.0
2-27Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH89-78W100%0.0
3-3UC Davis (281.0)BWA65-67W100%0.0
3-5Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA74-72L0%0.0
3-10Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWN75-44W100%0.0
3-11UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWN88-76W100%0.0
3-12Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN64-60W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.6226.6280.1580.1516.0516.05
Long Beach St.BW6.026.0255.1755.170.620.62
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.965.9662.9662.961.551.55
Cal St. FullertonBW5.925.9232.0032.00-2.13-2.13
UC IrvineBW4.444.4476.6776.672.372.37
UC RiversideBW4.374.3737.9337.93-1.06-1.06
UC DavisBW4.374.3734.6234.62-1.34-1.34
Cal PolyBW4.344.3430.7730.77-1.67-1.67
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.284.2830.7730.77-1.65-1.65
NevadaMWC1.821.8258.6258.620.310.31
Texas TechB121.741.7460.0060.000.350.35
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.741.7425.0025.00-0.87-0.87
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
OklahomaB121.721.7277.4277.420.940.94
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.721.7223.5323.53-0.91-0.91
AuburnSEC1.701.7036.6736.67-0.45-0.45
Montana St.BSky1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
HowardMEAC1.671.6734.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Nicholls St.Slnd1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
Northern IowaMVC1.671.6765.6265.620.520.52
Loyola MarymountWCC0.340.3443.3343.33-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.310.3137.5037.50-0.08-0.08
SeattleWAC0.280.2842.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
USCP120.200.2063.6463.640.060.06
Oregon St.P120.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
UCLAP120.200.2046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
WashingtonP120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1783.8783.870.120.12
PacificWCC0.170.1723.0823.08-0.09-0.09
UNLVMWC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
PortlandWCC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
OregonP120.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Kansas St.B120.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
TexasB120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01