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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:160.0
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:220
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11160.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH85-55W100%0.0
11-9Western Michigan (66.0)MACH78-68W100%0.0
11-12New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH88-95L0%0.0
11-16Missouri (49.0)SECN92-80L0%0.0
11-27New Orleans (260.0)SlndH91-58W100%0.0
11-29Montana (183.0)BSkyH72-61W100%0.0
12-7Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyA66-76W100%0.0
12-22Boise St. (82.0)MWCH61-62L0%0.0
12-23Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCH76-74W100%0.0
12-25Oregon St. (100.0)P12H79-73W100%0.0
12-30Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH77-66W100%0.0
1-3Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH77-73W100%0.0
1-9Cal Poly (208.0)BWA77-65L0%0.0
1-11Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA79-78L0%0.0
1-18UC Riverside (319.0)BWH100-69W100%0.0
1-23UC Davis (326.0)BWA73-90W100%0.0
1-25UC Irvine (111.0)BWA86-90W100%0.0
1-30Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH83-92L0%0.0
2-1Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH77-63W100%0.0
2-6UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH64-75L0%0.0
2-8Cal Poly (208.0)BWH69-60W100%0.0
2-13UC Riverside (319.0)BWA76-87W100%0.0
2-15Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA80-83W100%0.0
2-20UC Irvine (111.0)BWH56-60L0%0.0
2-22UC Davis (326.0)BWH86-77W100%0.0
2-27Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA63-61L0%0.0
3-6UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA86-77L0%0.0
3-8Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH81-77W100%0.0
3-13Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWN84-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.3926.3956.4956.493.433.43
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.106.1043.3343.33-0.81-0.81
Cal PolyBW4.494.4935.7135.71-1.28-1.28
Long Beach St.BW4.464.4639.2939.29-0.96-0.96
UC IrvineBW4.424.4266.6766.671.471.47
Cal St. FullertonBW4.364.3637.9337.93-1.05-1.05
UC RiversideBW4.354.3529.6329.63-1.77-1.77
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.354.3565.3865.381.341.34
UC DavisBW4.304.3025.9325.93-2.07-2.07
MissouriSEC1.811.8165.6265.620.570.57
Western MichiganMAC1.811.8173.3373.330.840.84
Boise St.MWC1.791.7958.0658.060.290.29
Northern ArizonaBSky1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
New Mexico St.WAC1.781.7872.7372.730.810.81
MontanaBSky1.781.7855.5655.560.200.20
Tennessee St.OVC1.781.7814.2914.29-1.27-1.27
New OrleansSlnd1.751.7538.1038.10-0.42-0.42
Saint Mary'sWCC1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
Nebraska OmahaSum1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Oregon St.P121.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
SeattleWAC0.530.5339.2939.29-0.11-0.11
Montana St.BSky0.390.3941.3841.38-0.07-0.07
IdahoWAC0.380.3845.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.350.3542.8642.86-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.310.3146.8846.88-0.02-0.02
USCP120.270.2732.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Fresno St.MWC0.270.2748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.260.263.573.57-0.24-0.24
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.2355.1755.170.020.02
ArizonaP120.220.2288.2488.240.170.17
UNLVMWC0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
WashingtonP120.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.190.1971.8871.880.090.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1657.1457.140.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
UCLAP120.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
CaliforniaP120.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
South DakotaSum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1293.1093.100.100.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0724.0024.00-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01