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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:300.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:311
Current SOS:311
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:195



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16300.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH68-69L0%0.0
11-13Texas St. (179.0)SBH74-68W100%0.0
11-14Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH64-63W100%0.0
11-18North Carolina (5.0)ACCH68-83L0%0.0
11-25Troy (147.0)SBH63-65L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH64-44W100%0.0
12-6Seton Hall (43.0)BEN57-68L0%0.0
12-7Princeton (47.0)IvyN62-75L0%0.0
12-22Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH45-71L0%0.0
12-23Utah (83.0)P12H52-66L0%0.0
12-25Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH60-46W100%0.0
12-29Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH77-66W100%0.0
1-5Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA67-64L0%0.0
1-7UC Irvine (135.0)BWA84-56L0%0.0
1-14Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH114-107W100%0.0
1-18Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH80-77W100%0.0
1-21UC Davis (166.0)BWH70-76L0%0.0
1-25UC Riverside (330.0)BWH64-70L0%0.0
1-28UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH78-56W100%0.0
2-2UC Riverside (330.0)BWA63-72W100%0.0
2-4Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA72-76W100%0.0
2-9Cal Poly (297.0)BWH74-65W100%0.0
2-11UC Irvine (135.0)BWH58-72L0%0.0
2-16UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA56-54L0%0.0
2-18Cal Poly (297.0)BWA61-82W100%0.0
2-25Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH64-58W100%0.0
3-2UC Davis (166.0)BWA68-59L0%0.0
3-4Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA84-75L0%0.0
3-9Long Beach St. (214.0)BWN73-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.4126.4137.2337.23-6.75-6.75
Long Beach St.BW6.086.0837.9337.93-1.47-1.47
UC IrvineBW4.534.5354.8454.840.440.44
UC DavisBW4.504.5060.0060.000.900.90
Cal St. FullertonBW4.444.4451.8551.850.160.16
Cal PolyBW4.404.4033.3333.33-1.47-1.47
UC RiversideBW4.394.3920.0020.00-2.64-2.64
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.374.3738.4638.46-1.01-1.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.314.3116.0016.00-2.93-2.93
Texas St.SB1.861.8660.0060.000.370.37
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.811.8129.6329.63-0.74-0.74
TroySB1.811.8157.5857.580.270.27
North CarolinaACC1.801.8078.1278.121.021.02
UtahP121.791.7960.7160.710.380.38
PrincetonIvy1.781.7877.7877.780.990.99
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.781.7814.8114.81-1.25-1.25
Southern MissCUSA1.751.7525.0025.00-0.88-0.88
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
Delaware St.MEAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Illinois St.MVC1.721.7280.6580.651.061.06
Seton HallBE1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
CaliforniaP120.310.3163.6463.640.090.09
UCLAP120.300.3087.8887.880.230.23
WashingtonP120.260.2629.0329.03-0.11-0.11
UTSACUSA0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
RiceCUSA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
StanfordP120.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
UABCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Oregon St.P120.140.1412.9012.90-0.10-0.10
PepperdineWCC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
San DiegoWCC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
USCP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
NevadaMWC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
DenverSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00