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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:152.0
Current RPI:152
Expected SOS:166
Current SOS:166
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13152.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH85-57W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH72-65W100%0.0
11-18High Point (89.0)BSthH54-62L0%0.0
11-21Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH74-70W100%0.0
11-24San Francisco (181.0)WCCN73-88L0%0.0
11-25Marist (317.0)MAACN62-55W100%0.0
11-26East Carolina (219.0)AmerN75-73W100%0.0
12-2Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH75-60W100%0.0
12-6BYU (36.0)WCCN90-70L0%0.0
12-22Nebraska (158.0)B10H66-58W100%0.0
12-23Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH79-80L0%0.0
12-25Colorado (116.0)P12H69-66W100%0.0
12-29Southern (223.0)SWACH71-57W100%0.0
12-30Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH76-68W100%0.0
1-7Cal Poly (199.0)BWH57-61L0%0.0
1-10Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH83-68W100%0.0
1-17UC Riverside (234.0)BWA66-62L0%0.0
1-22UC Davis (75.0)BWH84-76W100%0.0
1-24UC Irvine (88.0)BWH72-78L0%0.0
1-29Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA73-84W100%0.0
1-31Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA65-50L0%0.0
2-5Cal Poly (199.0)BWA56-59W100%0.0
2-7UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA75-74L0%0.0
2-12UC Riverside (234.0)BWH73-52W100%0.0
2-14Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH81-61W100%0.0
2-19UC Irvine (88.0)BWA75-60L0%0.0
2-21UC Davis (75.0)BWA74-67L0%0.0
2-26Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH78-59W100%0.0
3-4UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH90-98L0%0.0
3-7Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA70-91W100%0.0
3-12Long Beach St. (111.0)BWN72-79W100%0.0
3-13UC Davis (75.0)BWN58-65W100%0.0
3-14UC Irvine (88.0)BWN67-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.5326.5355.1755.172.742.74
UC IrvineBW5.475.4757.1457.140.780.78
UC DavisBW5.415.4184.6284.623.743.74
Long Beach St.BW5.395.3946.4346.43-0.39-0.39
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.034.0353.5753.570.290.29
UC RiversideBW3.993.9940.7440.74-0.74-0.74
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.983.9824.1424.14-2.06-2.06
Cal PolyBW3.963.9640.0040.00-0.79-0.79
Cal St. FullertonBW3.903.9025.9325.93-1.88-1.88
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
San FranciscoWCC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
BYUWCC1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.621.6237.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
SouthernSWAC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
ColoradoP121.541.5448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
MaristMAAC1.521.5222.5822.58-0.83-0.83
NebraskaB101.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
PittsburghACC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
Wichita St.MVC1.521.5286.6786.671.111.11
SeattleWAC0.280.2848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.270.2723.3323.33-0.14-0.14
San Diego St.MWC0.250.2575.7675.760.130.13
OregonP120.240.2472.7372.730.110.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2368.9768.970.090.09
UCLAP120.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.200.2093.9493.940.180.18
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
PepperdineWCC0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
PacificWCC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1964.7164.710.060.06
NevadaMWC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Washington St.P120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
ArizonaP120.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
LouisvilleACC0.170.1775.0075.000.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1762.9662.960.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1586.6786.670.110.11
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
San Jose St.MWC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
Utah St.MWC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
WashingtonP120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
PortlandWCC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Oregon St.P120.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
South DakotaSum0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01