live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:162.9
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:213
Current Record:11-5
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:164
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-579.00.08%
21-689.21.22%
20-7106.65.51%
19-8126.514.59%
18-9147.722.41%
17-10169.125.35%
16-11189.218.68%
15-12208.78.62%
14-13225.42.83%
13-14242.40.66%
12-15255.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACH82-70W100%0.0
11-12North Dakota (215.5)BSkyH81-78W100%0.0
11-13Troy (207.6)SBH72-67W100%0.0
11-24Nevada (15.0)MWCH54-67L0%0.0
12-2Utah (70.5)P12A80-60L0%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (267.9)SWACH72-60W100%0.0
12-17Utah Valley (84.7)WACH70-69W100%0.0
12-22Miami FL (28.3)ACCH57-75L0%0.0
12-23Davidson (82.5)A10H79-71W100%0.0
12-25Princeton (141.3)IvyH63-77L0%0.0
12-29Howard (331.0)MEACH84-59W100%0.0
1-4Long Beach St. (191.0)BWA89-81L0%0.0
1-6Cal St. Northridge (334.7)BWA46-65W100%0.0
1-10Cal Poly (282.2)BWH57-45W100%0.0
1-13UC Santa Barbara (108.2)BWH77-76W100%0.0
1-20UC Davis (106.3)BWH77-72W100%0.0
1-27Cal St. Fullerton (161.0)BWH0-065%4.3
2-1UC Santa Barbara (108.2)BWA0-028%-6.4
2-3Cal Poly (282.2)BWA0-063%3.6
2-7UC Riverside (301.1)BWH0-081%9.8
2-10Cal St. Northridge (334.7)BWH0-088%12.9
2-15UC Irvine (176.1)BWA0-037%-3.6
2-17UC Riverside (301.1)BWA0-062%3.5
2-22Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH0-069%5.4
2-24UC Irvine (176.1)BWH0-060%2.8
3-1UC Davis (106.3)BWA0-031%-5.5
3-3Cal St. Fullerton (161.0)BWA0-043%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.4026.4057.8158.714.124.60
UC DavisBW3.364.6962.5064.600.841.37
Cal St. FullertonBW0.534.6856.2557.710.070.72
UC IrvineBW0.524.6630.0039.12-0.21-1.01
UC RiversideBW0.444.6617.6523.55-0.29-2.46
Cal PolyBW3.404.6625.0028.94-1.70-1.96
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.304.6575.0072.211.652.07
Long Beach St.BW3.314.6336.8441.74-0.87-0.77
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.304.6218.7520.34-2.06-2.74
Utah ValleyWAC3.312.1670.5968.551.360.80
NevadaMWC3.312.0185.0081.492.321.27
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.382.0122.2240.78-1.88-0.37
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.391.9831.5837.66-1.25-0.49
PrincetonIvy3.311.9550.0058.800.000.34
North DakotaBSky3.381.9531.2536.05-1.27-0.54
TroySB3.301.9137.5044.34-0.82-0.22
Miami FLACC3.221.8875.0067.951.610.68
UtahP123.211.8858.8257.480.570.28
DavidsonA103.201.8862.5063.630.800.51
HowardMEAC3.121.8511.1128.28-2.43-0.80
MontanaBSky0.280.3370.5973.140.110.15
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.3016.6724.46-0.18-0.15
CaliforniaP120.180.3036.8431.12-0.05-0.11
Fresno St.MWC0.410.2866.6763.420.140.08
PepperdineWCC0.260.2610.5318.34-0.21-0.16
PacificWCC0.340.2645.0044.46-0.03-0.03
USCP120.270.2371.4368.300.120.09
Idaho St.BSky0.360.2343.7540.93-0.05-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.2283.3384.230.240.15
IdahoBSky0.260.2264.7166.850.080.08
San FranciscoWCC0.340.2250.0048.740.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.2027.7829.11-0.04-0.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.2058.8257.140.050.03
Oregon St.P120.320.1857.8950.810.050.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.1638.8946.03-0.06-0.01
StanfordP120.170.1655.0050.370.020.00
George WashingtonA100.360.1645.0043.49-0.04-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.160.1545.0045.50-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.150.0010.65-0.16-0.12
HarvardIvy0.000.1437.5046.630.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1370.0071.230.000.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1357.8954.500.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1390.4888.940.000.10
Montana St.BSky0.180.1350.0047.670.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.280.1344.4450.31-0.030.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.1345.0045.02-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.180.1370.0061.440.070.03
Washington St.P120.090.1350.0042.180.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.260.1356.2557.400.030.02
PittsburghACC0.180.1340.0030.87-0.04-0.05
ArizonaP120.160.1380.0078.980.100.07
Arizona St.P120.090.1378.9576.130.050.07
UCLAP120.090.1365.0062.040.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.150.1237.5031.76-0.04-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.1233.3332.96-0.08-0.04
UNLVMWC0.170.1273.6865.280.080.04
Colorado St.MWC0.080.1245.0041.34-0.01-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.1210.5316.75-0.06-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.1216.6724.29-0.05-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1212.5025.47-0.12-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.1236.8444.12-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.1238.8943.43-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.160.1227.7840.97-0.07-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.1221.0544.26-0.05-0.01
BYUWCC0.270.1080.9576.230.160.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.1058.8263.210.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1060.0062.030.040.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1050.0052.440.000.00
George MasonA100.180.1045.0041.35-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.1029.4139.62-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.170.1064.7162.780.050.03
Georgia St.SB0.170.1066.6765.530.060.03
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1068.4263.980.060.03
RadfordBSth0.170.1061.1160.790.040.02
SMUAmer0.170.1070.0070.630.070.04
NebraskaB100.170.0966.6759.780.060.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0911.1115.300.00-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0972.2272.970.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0937.5033.78-0.02-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.0910.0019.62-0.14-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.0946.6746.98-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.160.0966.6763.200.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0983.3381.410.050.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0766.6755.930.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0727.7827.300.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0729.4133.22-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.070.003.12-0.09-0.06
UMKCWAC0.090.0721.0524.71-0.05-0.03
KentuckySEC0.180.0773.6867.950.080.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0744.4442.74-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0045.130.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0762.5058.700.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0727.7838.13-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0766.6765.620.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0720.0032.26-0.06-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0733.3333.36-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0721.4326.210.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0766.6765.360.030.02
LamarSlnd0.090.0750.0054.850.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0783.3381.350.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0726.6729.040.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.0775.0070.270.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0725.0028.02-0.05-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0763.1657.540.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0750.0045.900.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0742.1143.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0750.0051.360.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0741.1847.510.00-0.00
DukeACC0.180.0789.4785.190.140.05
AkronMAC0.180.0647.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0633.3337.22-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0627.7831.12-0.04-0.02
ButlerBE0.180.0666.6763.070.060.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.060.009.15-0.09-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.170.0680.9583.260.110.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0650.0051.650.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.0672.2274.700.080.03
ColoradoP120.000.0660.0053.730.000.00
FordhamA100.090.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0615.7920.920.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5656.710.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0643.7554.09-0.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0666.6768.700.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.0622.2227.33-0.10-0.03
La SalleA100.090.0640.0042.72-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0680.0075.050.060.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0694.4485.440.080.04
Texas St.SB0.170.0657.8950.210.030.00
OregonP120.170.0665.0063.830.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0668.4255.060.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3336.470.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0673.6869.610.040.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0673.6862.720.000.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0685.0083.180.050.04
RiderMAAC0.000.0665.0065.370.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0668.4257.780.000.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0684.2178.170.050.03
New MexicoMWC0.160.0645.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0678.9576.970.040.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0658.8262.830.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0611.7612.81-0.06-0.04
WyomingMWC0.070.0661.1156.830.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0343.7549.10-0.01-0.00
UTSACUSA0.090.0341.1839.65-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0368.4264.200.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.090.0375.0070.690.050.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0377.7879.160.050.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0323.5332.62-0.05-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0342.1145.97-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.090.0322.2227.51-0.05-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0322.2225.260.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0327.7840.88-0.04-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0341.1838.46-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0361.1164.130.020.01
AmericanPat0.080.0326.3228.14-0.04-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0320.0028.72-0.06-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0323.5325.63-0.05-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.940.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.100.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
IndianaB100.080.0357.8950.680.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.220.030.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0352.9457.320.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.090.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
Saint LouisA100.090.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0327.7834.50-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0327.7831.67-0.04-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0333.3334.11-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01
VMISC0.090.0325.0024.17-0.05-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0350.0053.160.000.00
ClemsonACC0.090.0384.2173.210.060.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0341.1843.41-0.02-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0377.7869.360.000.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0363.6457.640.030.00
NavyPat0.090.0360.0055.160.020.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4257.770.000.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.270.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0344.4441.150.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.050.01
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0355.0053.290.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0360.0060.340.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.520.060.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0352.6350.250.000.00
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.590.040.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.52-0.04-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0378.9571.810.040.01