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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:274.4
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:321
Current SOS:277
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:296
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-6137.30.12%
19-7162.10.47%
18-8186.51.52%
17-9205.23.90%
16-10226.47.75%
15-11245.613.43%
14-12265.018.03%
13-13282.518.80%
12-14298.216.52%
11-15311.210.53%
10-16322.85.70%
9-17330.42.15%
8-18337.40.77%
7-19342.90.24%
6-20343.00.05%
5-21346.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCH68-69L0%0.0
11-13Texas St. (251.4)SBH74-68W100%0.0
11-14Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAH64-63W100%0.0
11-18North Carolina (5.9)ACCH68-83L0%0.0
11-25Troy (265.2)SBH63-65L0%0.0
11-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH64-44W100%0.0
12-6Seton Hall (76.8)BEN0-014%-13.1
12-7Princeton (95.0)IvyN0-023%-8.8
12-22Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-022%-9.2
12-29Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-083%11.5
1-5Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWA0-060%3.0
1-7UC Irvine (155.6)BWA0-028%-6.8
1-14Long Beach St. (199.2)BWH0-056%1.7
1-18Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWH0-063%4.0
1-21UC Davis (236.9)BWH0-064%4.3
1-25UC Riverside (291.2)BWH0-073%7.2
1-28UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWH0-069%5.8
2-2UC Riverside (291.2)BWA0-053%1.0
2-4Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWA0-043%-2.2
2-9Cal Poly (281.6)BWH0-070%6.3
2-11UC Irvine (155.6)BWH0-048%-0.7
2-16UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWA0-049%-0.4
2-18Cal Poly (281.6)BWA0-051%0.2
2-25Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWH0-078%9.2
3-2UC Davis (236.9)BWA0-044%-1.9
3-4Long Beach St. (199.2)BWA0-035%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW29.2526.4430.0044.51-11.70-2.90
Long Beach St.BW0.604.860.0038.26-0.60-1.14
Cal PolyBW0.004.8533.3335.64-0.00-1.39
UC DavisBW0.004.8257.1448.570.00-0.14
UC IrvineBW0.004.8250.0054.160.000.40
Cal St. FullertonBW0.004.8116.6729.94-0.00-1.93
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.004.8116.6742.97-0.00-0.68
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.810.0032.81-0.00-1.65
UC RiversideBW0.004.800.0033.13-0.00-1.62
Texas St.SB9.762.0660.0044.911.95-0.21
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC9.861.9950.0038.390.00-0.46
Florida AtlanticCUSA9.621.9925.0035.71-4.81-0.57
PrincetonIvy0.001.9925.0063.44-0.000.54
TroySB8.331.9920.0029.81-5.00-0.80
North CarolinaACC8.331.9983.3379.345.561.17
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC8.331.920.0025.09-8.33-0.96
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.9216.6737.04-0.00-0.50
Illinois St.MVC0.001.9250.0065.720.000.60
Seton HallBE0.001.9271.4353.420.000.13
UCLAP120.000.28100.0083.550.000.19
CaliforniaP120.000.2783.3363.610.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.2260.0057.170.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2133.3348.73-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.600.2150.0056.260.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2137.5036.24-0.00-0.06
WashingtonP120.000.2057.1452.630.000.01
UTSACUSA0.690.1728.5728.46-0.30-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC1.670.1775.0054.320.830.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1720.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1714.2934.56-0.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.1728.5733.92-0.00-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1571.4349.590.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1450.0059.670.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.1428.5727.50-0.00-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1460.0058.950.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1442.8645.30-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1471.4358.670.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.140.0021.30-0.00-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1416.6737.09-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1475.0070.470.000.06
PacificWCC0.000.1450.0049.010.00-0.00
UABCUSA1.530.1457.1461.940.220.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1471.4386.030.000.10
Arkansas St.SB0.600.1385.7168.390.430.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.390.1350.0043.490.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1366.6761.340.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.1383.3361.150.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1357.1464.940.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1350.0035.230.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.1360.0057.900.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1314.2937.52-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1371.4368.100.000.05
CornellIvy0.000.1128.5730.63-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1142.8642.47-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1133.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1157.1447.320.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.600.1150.0046.670.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.690.1083.3350.740.460.00
SMUAmer0.000.1057.1469.300.000.04
USCP120.000.10100.0075.380.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1042.8661.90-0.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1075.0059.100.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.690.10100.0069.770.690.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1040.0057.49-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1020.0036.00-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1028.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1020.0032.60-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1050.0045.410.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.1060.0067.410.000.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1083.3370.360.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1050.0071.330.000.04
IndianaB100.600.1083.3375.060.400.05
MarquetteBE0.000.1071.4363.090.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1016.6732.62-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0013.30-0.00-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.000.1042.8640.94-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1057.1467.020.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.1085.7175.950.000.05
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0042.420.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0023.47-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.070.0043.04-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0714.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0716.6740.71-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0740.0057.97-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0775.0061.040.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0733.3364.14-0.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0750.0046.780.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0058.980.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0029.280.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0733.3340.39-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0716.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0714.2929.81-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0733.3346.81-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0766.6754.420.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0785.7173.010.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0775.0064.960.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0725.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0023.26-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0766.6766.100.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0725.0043.26-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0034.18-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.600.0728.5747.72-0.26-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0760.0039.200.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0740.0030.80-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0785.7169.010.000.03
South FloridaAmer1.530.0766.6732.240.51-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0757.1436.050.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0740.0041.65-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0760.0039.610.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0750.0050.290.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0750.0038.430.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0771.4371.570.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0771.4365.740.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0042.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0783.3369.840.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.0785.7170.990.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0783.3380.700.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0023.46-0.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0740.0050.88-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.32-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0766.6775.370.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0061.810.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0714.2928.15-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0783.3378.430.000.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0089.040.000.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0720.0054.94-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.600.0714.2926.81-0.43-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0740.0040.65-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0742.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.600.0683.3356.560.400.01
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.0475.0067.660.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0471.4368.660.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0433.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0433.3367.01-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0440.0050.71-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0485.7178.150.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0466.6751.090.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0466.6770.930.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0457.1440.550.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0440.0067.95-0.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0483.3359.600.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0485.7172.660.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0466.6765.810.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0433.3323.33-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.04100.0059.480.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0442.8634.17-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.690.030.0020.01-0.69-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0320.0034.22-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.02
George WashingtonA100.830.0357.1444.160.12-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.830.0328.5750.51-0.360.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0366.6769.810.200.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
WisconsinB100.600.0375.0073.840.300.01