Hawaii

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	210.0
Current RPI:	210
Expected SOS:	234
Current SOS:	234
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-4
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	230
Expected OOC SOS:	191

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	210.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	H	76-64	W	100%
11-11	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	81-54	W	100%
11-12	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	73-60	W	100%
11-16	Illinois (40.0)	B10	H	77-78	L	0%
11-20	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	71-66	W	100%
12-1	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	77-63	L	0%
12-8	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	56-63	L	0%
12-22	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	H	58-73	L	0%
12-23	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	84-61	W	100%
12-25	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	H	66-81	L	0%
12-29	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	74-71	W	100%
1-3	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	90-88	W	100%
1-5	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	76-61	W	100%
1-9	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	68-64	L	0%
1-12	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	76-72	L	0%
1-17	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	60-52	W	100%
1-19	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	82-93	L	0%
1-24	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	88-59	L	0%
1-26	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	73-78	W	100%
1-31	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	68-72	W	100%
2-2	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	75-77	W	100%
2-7	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	94-73	W	100%
2-9	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	78-72	W	100%
2-14	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	89-65	L	0%
2-16	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	80-71	L	0%
2-23	Northern Arizona (255.0)	BSky	H	84-50	W	100%
2-28	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	70-66	W	100%
3-2	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	61-64	L	0%
3-7	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	88-75	L	0%
3-14	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	N	71-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hawaii	BW	26.42	26.42	46.88	46.88	-1.65	-1.65
UC Irvine	BW	6.06	6.06	53.33	53.33	0.40	0.40
Pacific	BW	4.47	4.47	63.33	63.33	1.19	1.19
Long Beach St.	BW	4.40	4.40	57.14	57.14	0.63	0.63
Cal Poly	BW	4.37	4.37	51.85	51.85	0.16	0.16
UC Davis	BW	4.36	4.36	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.33	4.33	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.32	4.32	33.33	33.33	-1.44	-1.44
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.30	4.30	40.74	40.74	-0.80	-0.80
UC Riverside	BW	4.29	4.29	15.38	15.38	-2.97	-2.97
Pepperdine	WCC	1.89	1.89	35.71	35.71	-0.54	-0.54
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.80	1.80	35.48	35.48	-0.52	-0.52
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.77	1.77	71.88	71.88	0.77	0.77
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.75	1.75	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.73	1.73	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.72	1.72	7.41	7.41	-1.47	-1.47
North Dakota	BSky	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	1.69	1.69	75.76	75.76	0.87	0.87
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.69	1.69	30.00	30.00	-0.68	-0.68
Illinois	B10	1.67	1.67	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Miami FL	ACC	1.67	1.67	81.25	81.25	1.04	1.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.41	0.41	32.14	32.14	-0.15	-0.15
Nevada	MWC	0.35	0.35	36.67	36.67	-0.09	-0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.27	0.27	32.26	32.26	-0.10	-0.10
Southern Utah	BSky	0.25	0.25	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
UCLA	P12	0.25	0.25	73.53	73.53	0.12	0.12
Weber St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	80.00	80.00	0.14	0.14
Santa Clara	WCC	0.22	0.22	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.22	0.22	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.22	81.25	81.25	0.14	0.14
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.14	0.14	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	93.75	93.75	0.12	0.12
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	79.31	79.31	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00