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Through games of Jan 24, 2015.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:190.4
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:204
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-3
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-8109.70.14%
21-9123.51.06%
20-10139.84.57%
19-11156.913.26%
18-12175.922.59%
17-13194.426.88%
16-14212.318.97%
15-15229.99.26%
14-16247.02.81%
13-17262.80.41%
12-18280.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.5)SWACH85-57W100%0.0
11-15Cal St. Bakersfield (309.2)WACH72-65W100%0.0
11-18High Point (100.0)BSthH54-62L0%0.0
11-21Pittsburgh (95.8)ACCN74-70W100%0.0
11-24San Francisco (187.0)WCCN73-88L0%0.0
11-25Marist (337.8)MAACN62-55W100%0.0
11-26East Carolina (259.8)AmerN75-73W100%0.0
12-2Delaware St. (217.6)MEACH75-60W100%0.0
12-6BYU (55.1)WCCN90-70L0%0.0
12-22Nebraska (97.3)B10H66-58W100%0.0
12-23Wichita St. (13.4)MVCH79-80L0%0.0
12-25Colorado (93.9)P12H69-66W100%0.0
12-29Southern (242.7)SWACH71-57W100%0.0
12-30Prairie View A&M (293.2)SWACH76-68W100%0.0
1-7Cal Poly (159.6)BWH57-61L0%0.0
1-10Cal St. Northridge (273.3)BWH83-68W100%0.0
1-17UC Riverside (262.6)BWA66-62L0%0.0
1-22UC Davis (124.6)BWH84-76W100%0.0
1-24UC Irvine (115.2)BWH72-78L0%0.0
1-29Cal St. Northridge (273.3)BWA0-060%2.7
1-31Long Beach St. (81.5)BWA0-025%-7.3
2-5Cal Poly (159.6)BWA0-036%-3.8
2-7UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWA0-023%-8.1
2-12UC Riverside (262.6)BWH0-079%8.9
2-14Cal St. Fullerton (287.5)BWH0-083%10.5
2-19UC Irvine (115.2)BWA0-025%-7.6
2-21UC Davis (124.6)BWA0-033%-4.9
2-26Long Beach St. (81.5)BWH0-048%-0.6
3-5UC Santa Barbara (107.8)BWH0-045%-1.3
3-7Cal St. Fullerton (287.5)BWA0-063%3.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.3826.3450.6051.520.320.80
Long Beach St.BW0.374.2042.1151.07-0.060.09
UC RiversideBW2.944.1935.2934.72-0.87-1.28
Cal PolyBW2.844.1846.6747.77-0.19-0.19
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.874.1726.3228.68-1.36-1.78
Cal St. FullertonBW0.314.1633.3332.03-0.10-1.50
UC IrvineBW2.774.1650.0055.050.000.42
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.224.1647.0653.53-0.010.29
UC DavisBW2.774.1680.0069.201.661.60
San FranciscoWCC2.851.8236.8439.88-0.75-0.37
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.851.8126.3233.71-1.35-0.59
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.851.7827.7837.68-1.27-0.44
BYUWCC2.701.7863.1666.420.710.58
SouthernSWAC2.771.7735.2947.30-0.81-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.701.7523.5339.15-1.43-0.38
High PointBSth2.771.7268.7567.251.040.59
ColoradoP122.701.7055.5652.930.300.10
Delaware St.MEAC2.631.6750.0051.430.000.05
East CarolinaAmer2.631.6737.5032.74-0.66-0.58
MaristMAAC2.631.675.5612.35-2.34-1.26
NebraskaB102.631.6766.6753.210.880.11
PittsburghACC2.631.6770.5957.001.080.23
Wichita St.MVC2.631.6788.2487.192.011.24
SeattleWAC0.150.2947.0649.64-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.420.2925.0025.40-0.21-0.14
San Diego St.MWC0.350.2673.6875.840.160.13
Saint Mary'sWCC0.290.2478.9574.010.170.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.2447.3741.09-0.01-0.04
OregonP120.220.2368.4259.850.080.05
UCLAP120.140.2355.0052.130.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.200.2357.8956.290.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.380.2144.4437.95-0.04-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.290.2020.0027.15-0.18-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.2061.1166.550.050.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.1910.5315.25-0.17-0.13
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.1942.1156.86-0.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.210.1895.0094.580.190.16
NevadaMWC0.080.1825.0026.14-0.04-0.08
Washington St.P120.150.1847.3738.18-0.01-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.150.1864.7161.590.040.04
PacificWCC0.210.1738.8934.81-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.130.1745.0045.94-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.270.1750.0047.460.00-0.01
UtahP120.280.1782.3583.030.180.11
ArizonaP120.210.1790.0087.180.170.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1720.0029.52-0.08-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.1761.5465.600.020.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1717.6523.40-0.09-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.170.007.13-0.15-0.14
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1725.0038.14-0.07-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.1683.3376.670.040.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.1557.8956.220.040.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.1550.0062.000.000.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1481.2584.470.090.10
DelawareCAA0.230.1221.0522.35-0.13-0.07
CaliforniaP120.150.1255.0045.750.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.1235.2938.26-0.02-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.220.1255.5653.210.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.120.002.08-0.08-0.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1247.3750.43-0.010.00
BradleyMVC0.150.1230.0031.23-0.06-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.220.1235.2936.78-0.06-0.03
PortlandWCC0.130.1152.6349.040.01-0.00
MemphisAmer0.150.1163.1661.620.040.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.1150.0043.330.00-0.02
USCP120.070.1147.3739.90-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.1177.7865.930.040.04
XavierBE0.000.1165.0063.100.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1170.0058.840.000.02
CampbellBSth0.150.0922.2229.76-0.09-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.0937.5045.85-0.04-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.0943.7552.34-0.020.00
Green BayHorz0.150.0978.9577.960.090.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.0938.4633.64-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0978.9577.540.040.05
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0989.4783.130.050.06
Oregon St.P120.000.0972.2262.220.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0973.6869.120.070.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0925.0030.05-0.07-0.03
TempleAmer0.080.0965.0062.140.020.02
TulsaAmer0.150.0977.7872.280.080.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0937.5032.90-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.140.0945.0047.79-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0972.2272.450.070.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.0833.3335.68-0.04-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0870.0074.650.030.04
MinnesotaB100.140.0860.0056.670.030.01
HoustonAmer0.140.0836.8435.27-0.04-0.02
StanfordP120.130.0873.6869.340.060.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0860.0047.800.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0844.4444.98-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0816.6723.70-0.05-0.04
SamfordSC0.140.0836.3636.13-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0847.0640.34-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.0850.0044.230.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.080.0635.2937.84-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0666.6767.030.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0656.2555.420.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0668.7569.140.030.02
FurmanSC0.080.0623.5328.67-0.04-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0652.9455.350.000.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0637.5043.65-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0617.6518.13-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0661.1161.370.020.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0643.7548.25-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.150.0657.1458.270.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.0616.6722.12-0.10-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.065.5611.58-0.06-0.05
KansasB120.000.0684.2175.960.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0647.3751.60-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0643.7538.83-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0627.7828.15-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0631.5838.42-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0661.1159.630.020.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0056.780.000.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0675.0076.160.040.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.0615.7926.55-0.10-0.03
ClemsonACC0.150.0657.8948.810.02-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0658.8260.180.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.065.5616.72-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0616.6718.13-0.05-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0643.7540.74-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.060.004.40-0.08-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.0642.1141.54-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0661.1161.280.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0647.3744.60-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0661.1158.450.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0652.3857.180.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0633.3334.70-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0665.0062.970.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0689.4782.920.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0633.3332.50-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0640.0037.49-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.150.0663.1653.870.040.00
UCFAmer0.000.0647.0641.71-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0661.1162.930.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0644.4444.57-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.150.0677.7871.550.080.02
George WashingtonA100.140.0680.0071.470.090.02
North TexasCUSA0.150.0635.2933.29-0.04-0.02
PennIvy0.150.0633.3333.95-0.05-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0660.0056.940.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.150.0668.7568.430.050.02
WyomingMWC0.140.0683.3376.420.090.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.0075.860.050.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0645.0040.42-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0650.0052.250.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0657.8962.550.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0631.5831.66-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.570.020.01
IowaB100.070.0665.0063.320.020.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.0077.540.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0655.0055.870.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0616.6720.02-0.04-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.0657.8956.620.020.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0661.9062.350.020.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0645.0048.04-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0644.4440.56-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0670.5961.580.000.01
TexasB120.000.0673.6868.840.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0664.7156.920.000.01
WisconsinB100.070.0690.0087.110.060.04
IndianaB100.140.0578.9568.920.080.02
Michigan St.B100.140.0565.0063.990.040.02
OhioMAC0.140.0541.1838.69-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.140.0555.0041.160.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0311.7617.50-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0321.0526.14-0.04-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0352.6355.870.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0358.8262.380.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0316.6723.13-0.05-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0365.0068.100.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0366.6760.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0378.9572.060.040.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0322.2232.03-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0314.2915.43-0.06-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0352.6355.510.000.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0342.1145.89-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0352.9458.930.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0370.5973.720.030.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0342.8642.63-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0337.5042.74-0.02-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0377.7868.130.040.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0373.6872.630.030.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0352.6353.030.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0357.8956.190.010.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0363.1663.590.020.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0053.230.000.00
NJITind0.000.0350.0051.930.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0355.0061.960.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0370.5977.580.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.26-0.01-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0344.4437.39-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0317.6526.23-0.05-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0372.2262.360.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0355.0060.900.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0355.5654.920.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0335.2941.31-0.02-0.00
ArmyPat0.070.0364.7159.760.020.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0350.0040.150.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0341.1838.09-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0350.0051.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.030.003.89-0.07-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0345.0039.23-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0352.3843.130.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0327.7829.52-0.03-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0347.3744.07-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0372.2265.330.030.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0354.5565.340.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0341.1842.85-0.01-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0357.8950.370.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0338.8940.90-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0338.8943.45-0.02-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0352.6343.260.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0366.6758.710.020.00
Penn St.B100.000.0365.0051.740.000.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0326.6730.45-0.03-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0347.6237.42-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0344.4439.74-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0368.7575.250.030.01
TCUB120.070.0373.6861.590.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0358.8257.870.010.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0343.7545.87-0.01-0.00
VMISC0.070.0331.5837.61-0.03-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0049.170.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0388.8982.600.060.02
DuquesneA100.070.0329.4127.40-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0350.0045.560.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0341.1842.95-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0373.6870.620.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0061.690.020.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.0082.690.000.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0333.3340.27-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0364.7156.740.020.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0344.4434.61-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0366.6762.710.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0378.5774.650.040.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0323.5327.70-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0378.9578.160.040.01