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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:214.5
Current RPI:54
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:157
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:13-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:177
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-332.00.01%
21-467.70.03%
20-570.60.05%
19-692.00.45%
18-7110.01.79%
17-8132.84.31%
16-9155.18.84%
15-10179.514.23%
14-11202.317.04%
13-12224.919.04%
12-13245.415.28%
11-14264.310.17%
10-15282.15.44%
9-16297.42.30%
8-17312.70.77%
7-18321.00.22%
6-19333.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACH82-70W100%0.0
11-12North Dakota (191.6)BSkyH81-78W100%0.0
11-13Troy (191.8)SBH72-67W100%0.0
11-24Nevada (20.5)MWCH0-015%-12.6
12-2Utah (45.4)P12A0-07%-17.8
12-6Prairie View A&M (301.8)SWACH0-087%13.3
12-17Utah Valley (141.8)WACH0-050%0.1
12-22Miami FL (24.3)ACCH0-08%-17.1
12-29Howard (252.7)MEACH0-074%7.6
1-4Long Beach St. (152.8)BWA0-030%-6.4
1-6Cal St. Northridge (271.1)BWA0-049%-0.3
1-10Cal Poly (242.5)BWH0-067%5.3
1-13UC Santa Barbara (198.5)BWH0-056%1.8
1-20UC Davis (154.8)BWH0-050%0.1
1-27Cal St. Fullerton (247.8)BWH0-068%5.5
2-1UC Santa Barbara (198.5)BWA0-036%-4.2
2-3Cal Poly (242.5)BWA0-048%-0.7
2-7UC Riverside (276.4)BWH0-073%7.3
2-10Cal St. Northridge (271.1)BWH0-068%5.7
2-15UC Irvine (114.9)BWA0-026%-7.8
2-17UC Riverside (276.4)BWA0-054%1.3
2-22Long Beach St. (152.8)BWH0-049%-0.4
2-24UC Irvine (114.9)BWH0-044%-1.8
3-1UC Davis (154.8)BWA0-031%-6.0
3-3Cal St. Fullerton (247.8)BWA0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW32.6426.50100.0047.6132.64-1.27
UC DavisBW0.005.1166.6757.240.000.74
Cal St. FullertonBW0.005.100.0034.510.00-1.58
UC RiversideBW0.005.0833.3331.480.00-1.88
UC IrvineBW0.005.0833.3352.440.000.25
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.005.0733.3349.940.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.005.0550.0050.310.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.005.040.0040.780.00-0.93
Cal PolyBW0.005.0333.3337.670.00-1.24
Utah ValleyWAC0.002.3550.0060.840.000.51
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.002.170.0034.560.00-0.67
NevadaMWC0.002.14100.0078.700.001.23
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC22.222.140.0024.68-22.22-1.08
North DakotaBSky21.532.10100.0048.5621.53-0.06
TroySB21.532.0750.0048.070.00-0.08
UtahP120.002.03100.0066.200.000.66
HowardMEAC0.002.000.0046.790.00-0.13
Miami FLACC0.002.00100.0073.840.000.95
CaliforniaP120.000.3466.6740.170.00-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.000.3250.0060.060.000.06
PepperdineWCC0.000.290.0031.910.00-0.11
MontanaBSky0.000.2950.0060.130.000.06
PacificWCC0.000.280.0033.520.00-0.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.260.0033.930.00-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.000.260.0028.170.00-0.11
San FranciscoWCC0.000.2566.6756.400.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2350.0034.730.00-0.07
USCP120.000.23100.0073.190.000.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2233.3338.880.00-0.05
StanfordP120.000.1875.0049.860.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1833.3351.560.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1850.0069.320.000.07
IdahoBSky0.000.1750.0060.380.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1750.0050.190.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0018.970.00-0.10
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.15100.0088.360.000.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.15100.0075.130.000.07
Montana St.BSky0.000.1533.3350.350.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1533.3353.520.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1533.3334.560.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.1533.3350.150.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.1550.0046.810.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.15100.0041.780.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1450.0035.330.00-0.04
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0083.700.000.10
Arizona St.P120.000.14100.0062.760.000.04
UCLAP120.000.14100.0064.910.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.1466.6766.020.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.140.0042.340.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1466.6742.260.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.13100.0044.740.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1366.6742.170.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0022.610.00-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0026.180.00-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0037.120.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0032.770.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.130.0044.500.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0044.630.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0050.360.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.110.0051.010.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.110.0035.450.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.11100.0071.560.000.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1133.3335.150.00-0.03
SMUAmer2.080.11100.0076.262.080.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.11100.0071.010.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1166.6757.890.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.11100.0048.130.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1133.3327.100.00-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0053.280.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.100.0018.400.00-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1066.6761.500.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.10100.0064.720.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.08100.0053.240.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.080.0029.710.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0866.6768.790.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0042.670.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.007.670.00-0.06
George MasonA100.000.0775.0048.930.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.07100.0065.580.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.070.0035.760.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.07100.0052.950.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0036.490.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.070.0026.150.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.320.000.03
DukeACC0.000.07100.0083.580.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.0775.0071.830.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0775.0045.290.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.07100.0052.860.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.07100.0068.200.000.03
MichiganB100.000.07100.0061.710.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0775.0061.940.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0766.6771.200.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6745.880.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0086.180.000.05
OregonP120.000.07100.0076.200.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0028.720.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0733.3342.010.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0733.3347.670.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.070.0021.590.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.070.0038.100.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.07100.0064.470.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0062.930.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0750.0059.190.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3346.880.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.070.0028.770.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0766.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0049.250.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0766.6755.210.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0733.3345.780.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0733.3346.090.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0650.0050.570.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0650.0062.630.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0021.010.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0057.360.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0066.490.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.040.0047.180.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0433.3338.350.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.040.0047.690.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0475.0052.360.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.04100.0054.960.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0067.460.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.040.0043.690.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.040.0057.520.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0475.0051.210.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.04100.0066.990.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.04100.0071.700.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.04100.0053.790.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0450.0052.870.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0466.6740.070.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.04100.0078.160.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.04100.0054.680.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.040.0036.690.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.040.0024.440.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.040.0022.920.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.04100.0073.730.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.04100.0062.240.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.04100.0074.140.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0425.0035.000.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0333.3357.840.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3360.630.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.030.0037.050.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.03100.0078.750.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01