Hawaii

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	184.5
Current RPI:	204
Expected SOS:	178
Current SOS:	266
Current Record:	12-9
Expected Record:	15-13
Current Conf Record:	5-3
Expected Conf Record:	8-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	4.87%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-7
Expected OOC RPI:	258
Expected OOC SOS:	272

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-9	115.8	0.12%
18-10	129.5	1.56%
17-11	146.1	7.84%
16-12	164.0	20.59%
15-13	182.8	30.81%
14-14	200.5	26.22%
13-15	216.9	11.04%
12-16	232.8	1.81%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Cal St. Northridge (309.6)	BW	H	86-67	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Gonzaga (27.9)	WCC	N	73-54	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Eastern Washington (210.5)	BSky	H	72-89	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Pacific (265.6)	BW	H	75-70	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Pepperdine (250.7)	WCC	A	73-67	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Pacific (265.6)	BW	A	64-54	L	0%	0.0
12-11	UC Davis (342.2)	BW	H	74-61	W	100%	0.0
12-18	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	N	65-57	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Auburn (147.6)	SEC	H	62-65	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Xavier (55.8)	A10	H	84-82	W	100%	0.0
12-25	Clemson (148.3)	ACC	H	75-68	W	100%	0.0
12-29	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	H	100-73	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	H	69-74	L	0%	0.0
1-7	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	H	82-69	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	68-74	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	A	77-74	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	70-74	L	0%	0.0
1-21	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	H	91-87	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	77-72	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	70-76	W	100%	0.0
2-4	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	A	81-83	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	H	0-0		43%	-2.1
2-11	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	0-0		56%	1.8
2-17	Montana (101.6)	BSky	A	0-0		22%	-8.5
2-23	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	A	0-0		16%	-10.8
2-25	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	A	0-0		48%	-0.4
3-1	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	0-0		54%	1.0
3-3	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	H	0-0		48%	-0.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Hawaii	WAC	26.39	26.37	52.63	48.72	1.39	-0.68
Nevada	WAC	3.03	4.43	80.00	76.25	1.82	2.33
Fresno St.	WAC	2.99	4.41	40.91	46.14	-0.54	-0.34
Idaho	WAC	2.97	4.40	50.00	53.23	0.00	0.28
Utah St.	WAC	2.99	4.38	47.83	51.29	-0.13	0.11
San Jose St.	WAC	5.14	4.34	30.00	28.94	-2.06	-1.83
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.82	4.31	72.73	70.83	1.28	1.80
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.81	4.31	40.00	41.06	-0.56	-0.77
Pacific	BW	5.04	3.88	33.33	36.47	-1.68	-1.05
UC Davis	BW	2.78	2.14	0.00	5.56	-2.78	-1.91
Cal St. Northridge	BW	2.61	2.07	22.22	23.36	-1.45	-1.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.55	1.98	38.10	41.96	-0.61	-0.32
Montana	BSky	0.22	1.98	70.00	73.09	0.09	0.91
Gonzaga	WCC	2.60	1.91	80.95	80.83	1.61	1.18
Pepperdine	WCC	2.55	1.88	28.57	31.28	-1.09	-0.70
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.44	1.85	81.82	80.80	1.55	1.14
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.38	1.85	35.00	38.63	-0.71	-0.42
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.38	1.85	10.53	15.48	-1.88	-1.28
Xavier	A10	2.44	1.82	68.18	65.94	0.89	0.58
Auburn	SEC	2.38	1.79	54.55	47.05	0.22	-0.11
Clemson	ACC	2.38	1.79	52.38	50.03	0.11	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.74	0.57	47.83	47.87	-0.03	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.56	0.47	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.06
Seattle	ind	0.32	0.46	23.53	33.28	-0.17	-0.15
Long Beach St.	BW	0.46	0.42	71.43	73.35	0.20	0.20
UC Riverside	BW	0.58	0.39	42.86	39.66	-0.08	-0.08
UC Irvine	BW	0.52	0.36	35.00	35.26	-0.16	-0.10
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.35	0.35	55.56	58.01	0.04	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.44	0.35	56.52	53.77	0.06	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.29	0.29	65.00	66.70	0.09	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.40	0.29	28.57	26.30	-0.17	-0.14
Montana St.	BSky	0.33	0.29	45.00	41.76	-0.03	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.27	0.28	42.86	41.13	-0.04	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.26	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.08
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.26	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.21	0.25	75.00	76.00	0.11	0.13
Weber St.	BSky	0.21	0.25	80.00	76.84	0.13	0.13
Portland	WCC	0.22	0.22	21.74	21.70	-0.12	-0.13
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.16	0.22	30.00	33.20	-0.07	-0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.26	0.21	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.16	0.19	13.64	16.14	-0.12	-0.13
St. Mary's	WCC	0.27	0.19	90.91	87.74	0.22	0.14
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.19	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.07
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.18	85.71	82.18	0.11	0.12
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.18	81.82	81.03	0.10	0.11
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.16	33.33	33.82	-0.04	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.22	0.16	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.12	0.16	30.00	27.84	-0.05	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.22	0.16	38.10	42.78	-0.05	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.17	0.16	19.05	22.37	-0.10	-0.09
Stanford	P12	0.23	0.16	69.57	68.29	0.09	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	30.43	31.43	-0.06	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.21	0.15	57.14	60.75	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.16	0.15	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.13	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.13	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.13	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.22	0.13	42.11	49.81	-0.04	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.22	0.12	25.00	37.58	-0.11	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.12	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.16	0.12	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.12	76.19	75.94	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.12	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.12	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.12	78.26	72.34	0.06	0.05
Washington	P12	0.12	0.10	69.57	66.54	0.05	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.10	63.64	63.16	0.02	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.10	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.09	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.09	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.17	0.09	34.78	38.77	-0.05	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.09	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.09	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.17	0.09	40.91	39.56	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.05
California	P12	0.16	0.09	75.00	74.61	0.08	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.09	72.73	71.71	0.05	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.05
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.06	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.07	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.00	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.00	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.00	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.01