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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Hawaii

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:89.7
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:241
Current SOS:246
Current Record:16-3
Expected Record:22-5
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-364.97.55%
23-475.527.55%
22-589.035.84%
21-6104.821.44%
20-7123.36.31%
19-8142.61.21%
18-9162.30.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Montana St. (256.6)BSkyH87-76W100%0.0
11-15Coastal Carolina (156.5)BSthH74-63W100%0.0
11-16Nevada (133.8)MWCH76-75W100%0.0
11-22Nicholls St. (323.6)SlndH99-74W100%0.0
11-28Texas Tech (65.0)B12A82-74L0%0.0
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.4)SWACH75-47W100%0.0
12-22Northern Iowa (115.6)MVCH68-52W100%0.0
12-23Oklahoma (3.3)B12H81-84L0%0.0
12-25Auburn (167.7)SECH79-67W100%0.0
12-29Mississippi Valley St. (323.3)SWACH77-48W100%0.0
1-2Howard (297.5)MEACH94-59W100%0.0
1-6Cal Poly (215.8)BWH86-73W100%0.0
1-9UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWH65-57W100%0.0
1-14UC Riverside (263.9)BWA71-80W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWA79-86W100%0.0
1-23UC Davis (254.1)BWH78-62W100%0.0
1-30Long Beach St. (100.8)BWH64-78L0%0.0
2-4UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWA64-76W100%0.0
2-6Cal Poly (215.8)BWA60-75W100%0.0
2-11UC Irvine (68.4)BWH0-069%5.3
2-13Cal St. Fullerton (284.3)BWH0-093%16.1
2-18Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWA0-083%10.5
2-20UC Irvine (68.4)BWA0-045%-1.4
2-25UC Riverside (263.9)BWH0-092%15.4
2-27Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWH0-094%17.1
3-3UC Davis (254.1)BWA0-080%9.2
3-5Long Beach St. (100.8)BWA0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Hawaii's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Hawaii's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Hawaii.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
HawaiiBW26.4126.4079.0178.7615.3215.18
Cal St. FullertonBW3.204.6536.8434.57-0.84-1.43
UC IrvineBW0.634.6372.7373.690.292.19
UC RiversideBW3.094.6347.8344.35-0.13-0.52
Long Beach St.BW3.134.6342.8649.53-0.45-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.624.6228.5729.88-0.26-1.86
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.584.6247.3754.27-0.290.39
Cal PolyBW5.634.6233.3337.31-1.88-1.17
UC DavisBW3.064.6242.1138.90-0.48-1.02
NevadaMWC2.821.9957.8956.550.450.26
Texas TechB122.741.9457.1451.560.390.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.741.9425.0026.50-1.37-0.91
Coastal CarolinaBSth2.751.9263.1662.590.720.48
OklahomaB122.691.9186.3682.051.961.23
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.681.9120.8323.04-1.57-1.03
AuburnSEC2.701.8940.9136.65-0.49-0.50
Montana St.BSky2.701.8842.8645.27-0.39-0.18
HowardMEAC2.631.8538.1040.36-0.63-0.36
Nicholls St.Slnd2.631.8519.0521.90-1.63-1.04
Northern IowaMVC2.631.8556.5256.910.340.26
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.3339.1338.57-0.04-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.350.3145.8342.26-0.03-0.05
SeattleWAC0.360.2647.6244.99-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.250.2331.5837.70-0.09-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.130.2031.8229.12-0.05-0.08
Sacramento St.BSky0.250.2042.1145.67-0.04-0.02
USCP120.260.2078.2673.050.150.09
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2085.7185.380.140.14
UCLAP120.190.2056.5253.270.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.130.2063.6462.590.040.05
UNLVMWC0.250.2050.0055.190.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1954.5550.110.020.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.170.1930.4331.20-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.120.1982.6179.190.080.11
Iowa St.B120.280.1873.9170.050.130.07
Oregon St.P120.260.1761.9056.430.060.02
Air ForceMWC0.180.1645.4538.44-0.02-0.04
PacificWCC0.130.1625.0028.89-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1619.0525.89-0.07-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1652.3850.420.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.240.1658.3360.730.040.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1565.2268.600.030.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.280.1528.5733.36-0.12-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1575.0076.250.050.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1545.4554.14-0.020.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1440.0038.51-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.200.1361.9059.540.050.03
WashingtonP120.190.1365.2261.100.060.03
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1315.0015.34-0.09-0.09
PepperdineWCC0.060.1356.5257.280.010.02
WyomingMWC0.250.1343.4842.49-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1372.7372.110.080.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.1343.4850.65-0.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.1347.6249.40-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1325.0030.01-0.09-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1328.5726.98-0.05-0.06
OregonP120.060.1382.6179.220.040.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1245.0049.25-0.01-0.00
BYUWCC0.170.1266.6769.490.060.05
BaylorB120.120.1272.7366.400.050.04
Kansas St.B120.170.1260.8758.300.040.02
TCUB120.120.1245.8339.34-0.01-0.03
TexasB120.180.1266.6762.200.060.03
West VirginiaB120.120.1279.1778.090.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1236.8442.89-0.06-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1240.0040.31-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1215.0018.09-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1250.0054.200.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.129.0917.13-0.09-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.110.1261.9065.300.030.04
RadfordBSth0.190.1150.0051.300.000.00
High PointBSth0.130.1055.0057.460.010.02
UMBCAE0.190.1024.0026.33-0.10-0.05
IdahoBSky0.130.1054.5554.950.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1063.6462.150.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.190.1076.1972.280.100.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1033.3334.95-0.04-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1078.2677.860.070.06
HamptonMEAC0.120.1059.0961.320.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1045.0046.13-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1056.5256.320.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1077.2776.870.100.05
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1025.0022.73-0.06-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.099.0912.24-0.09-0.07
DrakeMVC0.180.0920.8323.21-0.10-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.120.0973.9176.720.060.05
HarvardIvy0.170.0935.0038.50-0.05-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.0952.9452.080.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.0917.6529.05-0.08-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.110.0947.3749.93-0.01-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.0917.6526.57-0.08-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0935.0034.80-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.0950.0049.790.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.110.0930.0029.27-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0914.2924.89-0.04-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.170.0933.3333.04-0.06-0.03
OhioMAC0.110.0963.6461.420.030.02
CampbellBSth0.130.0728.5729.65-0.06-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0723.8126.56-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0745.4547.57-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0725.0026.86-0.07-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0765.2266.200.020.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0765.0063.410.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0737.5040.54-0.03-0.01
IPFWSum0.130.0770.8368.550.050.03
UTSACUSA0.130.0713.6413.63-0.10-0.05
AkronMAC0.130.0782.6181.140.080.04
Arizona St.P120.130.0754.1751.690.010.00
CaliforniaP120.130.0765.2262.830.040.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0714.2920.67-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.130.0760.8760.720.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0729.1733.74-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0760.0057.610.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0741.6741.23-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.130.0752.0054.860.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0756.5257.010.000.01
ArizonaP120.060.0679.1778.350.030.04
DukeACC0.060.0675.0071.800.030.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0657.8962.320.010.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0627.7834.43-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.0013.14-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.060.0673.9169.970.030.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0683.3378.470.040.04
ColoradoP120.120.0669.5765.330.050.02
MemphisAmer0.120.0660.8760.820.030.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0625.0033.22-0.06-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0659.0953.250.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0053.100.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0629.1726.74-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.110.0612.5012.90-0.08-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0666.6767.700.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.790.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.0955.300.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.940.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0652.1751.910.000.00
LSUSEC0.110.0665.2260.260.030.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5058.930.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0643.4843.78-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.81-0.01-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0628.5729.66-0.02-0.03
RichmondA100.110.0654.5554.470.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0672.0070.540.050.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0656.5259.860.010.01
Washington St.P120.110.0636.3631.98-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0643.4842.66-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.0634.7830.33-0.03-0.02
NebraskaB100.110.0654.1751.880.010.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0463.6460.920.020.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0434.7836.50-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0422.7324.97-0.04-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0443.4840.46-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0443.4846.22-0.01-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0366.6765.220.020.01
CornellIvy0.060.0342.1140.21-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0340.9139.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.12-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0380.0077.930.040.02
RutgersB100.060.0321.7420.37-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0338.1037.68-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0352.1754.170.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.830.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0356.5256.990.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0352.3854.080.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0369.5764.890.020.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0369.5766.580.020.01
SMUAmer0.060.0390.9186.110.050.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.530.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0365.0069.240.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0390.4886.910.050.02
CreightonBE0.060.0364.0062.090.020.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0366.6766.320.020.01
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0340.0038.98-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0375.0072.610.030.01
MercerSC0.060.0369.5769.020.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0371.4369.410.020.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.79-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.390.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0339.1341.10-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0386.3679.110.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0347.8350.19-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.370.040.02
UtahP120.060.0369.5767.500.020.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0387.5086.910.040.02
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.830.010.00
XavierBE0.060.0387.5081.810.040.02
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.580.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.430.010.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.120.030.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.600.030.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.060.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.860.00-0.00