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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:11.0
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:5
Current SOS:5
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-811.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH69-42W100%0.0
11-12South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH93-59W100%0.0
11-17Iowa St. (7.0)B12A77-70L0%0.0
11-21Long Beach St. (166.0)BWN85-61W100%0.0
11-22Florida St. (54.0)ACCN80-82W100%0.0
11-24Charlotte (151.0)CUSAN61-63L0%0.0
11-29Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH87-45W100%0.0
12-3Duke (9.0)ACCA79-69L0%0.0
12-7Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH107-53W100%0.0
12-14Arizona (2.0)P12H70-72L0%0.0
12-21Stanford (41.0)P12N65-68W100%0.0
12-28Holy Cross (127.0)PatH88-66W100%0.0
1-2Minnesota (50.0)B10A60-63W100%0.0
1-5Northwestern (123.0)B10H74-51W100%0.0
1-9Nebraska (48.0)B10A70-71W100%0.0
1-14Penn St. (114.0)B10H80-67W100%0.0
1-18Wisconsin (6.0)B10A70-77W100%0.0
1-22Iowa (56.0)B10H75-67W100%0.0
1-25Michigan St. (18.0)B10A75-80W100%0.0
1-30Purdue (145.0)B10H75-66W100%0.0
2-2Indiana (102.0)B10A63-52L0%0.0
2-5Nebraska (48.0)B10H79-50W100%0.0
2-8Iowa (56.0)B10A85-67L0%0.0
2-11Ohio St. (24.0)B10A60-70W100%0.0
2-16Wisconsin (6.0)B10H62-75L0%0.0
2-23Michigan St. (18.0)B10H79-70W100%0.0
2-26Purdue (145.0)B10A76-77W100%0.0
3-1Minnesota (50.0)B10H66-56W100%0.0
3-4Illinois (70.0)B10A53-84W100%0.0
3-8Indiana (102.0)B10H84-80W100%0.0
3-14Illinois (70.0)B10N64-63W100%0.0
3-15Ohio St. (24.0)B10N72-69W100%0.0
3-16Michigan St. (18.0)B10N55-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.2926.2975.8475.8413.5913.59
Michigan St.B105.275.2780.6580.653.233.23
Ohio St.B103.903.9078.1278.122.192.19
WisconsinB103.853.8580.6580.652.362.36
IllinoisB103.853.8561.2961.290.870.87
MinnesotaB103.803.8063.3363.331.011.01
IowaB103.793.7962.0762.070.910.91
NebraskaB103.773.7765.5265.521.171.17
IndianaB103.773.7753.3353.330.250.25
PurdueB103.753.7550.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB102.472.4743.7543.75-0.31-0.31
Penn St.B102.382.3848.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Florida St.ACC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
ArizonaP121.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
South Carolina St.MEAC1.591.5925.9325.93-0.76-0.76
StanfordP121.581.5865.6265.620.490.49
Iowa St.B121.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
DukeACC1.561.5675.7675.760.800.80
Coppin St.MEAC1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
CharlotteCUSA1.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
Long Beach St.BW1.541.5444.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Holy CrossPat1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
Houston BaptistSlnd1.521.5215.3815.38-1.05-1.05
UMass LowellAE1.521.5234.6234.62-0.47-0.47
Notre DameACC0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
SyracuseACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
VirginiaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
North CarolinaACC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
North FloridaASun0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
WashingtonP120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
West VirginiaB120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
MarylandACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
CaliforniaP120.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Arizona St.P120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
SienaMAAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Oregon St.P120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0434.6234.62-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0478.5778.570.030.03
OhioMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00