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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:81.0
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:10
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1681.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Bucknell (136.0)PatH77-53W100%0.0
11-20Detroit (205.0)HorzH71-62W100%0.0
11-24Oregon (27.0)P12N63-70W100%0.0
11-25Villanova (3.0)BEN55-60L0%0.0
11-29Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH91-62W100%0.0
12-2Syracuse (69.0)ACCH68-65W100%0.0
12-6NJIT (159.0)indH70-72L0%0.0
12-9Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH42-45L0%0.0
12-13Arizona (5.0)P12A80-53L0%0.0
12-20SMU (12.0)AmerH51-62L0%0.0
12-22Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH72-56W100%0.0
12-30Illinois (73.0)B10H73-65W100%0.0
1-3Purdue (55.0)B10A64-51L0%0.0
1-6Penn St. (108.0)B10A64-73W100%0.0
1-10Minnesota (98.0)B10H62-57W100%0.0
1-13Ohio St. (41.0)B10A71-52L0%0.0
1-17Northwestern (125.0)B10H56-54W100%0.0
1-20Rutgers (178.0)B10A50-54W100%0.0
1-24Wisconsin (4.0)B10H64-69L0%0.0
1-27Nebraska (158.0)B10H58-44W100%0.0
2-1Michigan St. (23.0)B10A76-66L0%0.0
2-5Iowa (43.0)B10H54-72L0%0.0
2-8Indiana (61.0)B10A70-67L0%0.0
2-12Illinois (73.0)B10A64-52L0%0.0
2-17Michigan St. (23.0)B10H67-80L0%0.0
2-22Ohio St. (41.0)B10H64-57W100%0.0
2-28Maryland (13.0)B10A66-56L0%0.0
3-3Northwestern (125.0)B10A82-78L0%0.0
3-7Rutgers (178.0)B10H79-69W100%0.0
3-12Illinois (73.0)B10N55-73W100%0.0
3-13Wisconsin (4.0)B10N71-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.1826.1842.8642.86-3.74-3.74
IllinoisB105.485.4862.0762.071.321.32
Michigan St.B103.993.9965.6265.621.251.25
WisconsinB103.933.9390.6290.623.193.19
NorthwesternB103.893.8946.6746.67-0.26-0.26
Ohio St.B103.843.8470.9770.971.611.61
RutgersB103.793.7933.3333.33-1.26-1.26
Penn St.B102.382.3854.5554.550.220.22
PurdueB102.382.3862.5062.500.590.59
IndianaB102.382.3859.3859.380.450.45
IowaB102.332.3364.5264.520.680.68
MinnesotaB102.332.3354.8454.840.230.23
MarylandB102.332.3381.2581.251.451.45
NebraskaB102.302.3043.3343.33-0.31-0.31
OregonP121.811.8175.0075.000.910.91
VillanovaBE1.771.7793.9493.941.561.56
Coppin St.MEAC1.741.7424.1424.14-0.90-0.90
Eastern MichiganMAC1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
ArizonaP121.691.6990.9190.911.381.38
SyracuseACC1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
BucknellPat1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
Nicholls St.Slnd1.661.6628.0028.00-0.73-0.73
DetroitHorz1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
SMUAmer1.641.6480.6580.651.001.00
NJITind1.641.6454.1754.170.140.14
MarquetteBE0.250.2540.6240.62-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
ToledoMAC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
DukeACC0.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Arizona St.P120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
AmericanPat0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
BrownIvy0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
LouisvilleACC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
North CarolinaACC0.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
USCP120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AlbanyAE0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01