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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:34.7
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:195
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-11.00.01%
26-22.60.05%
25-33.20.27%
24-44.20.82%
23-56.52.53%
22-69.76.26%
21-714.010.69%
20-820.215.50%
19-928.018.11%
18-1037.416.98%
17-1149.013.26%
16-1261.98.32%
15-1377.24.72%
14-1494.91.71%
13-15111.90.57%
12-16128.10.17%
11-17146.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Bucknell (168.0)PatH77-53W100%0.0
11-20Detroit (133.3)HorzH71-62W100%0.0
11-24Oregon (39.3)P12N0-055%1.4
11-29Nicholls St. (282.8)SlndH0-098%25.3
12-2Syracuse (24.9)ACCH0-056%1.8
12-6NJIT (306.5)indH0-099%27.6
12-9Eastern Michigan (167.0)MACH0-093%17.6
12-13Arizona (25.1)P12A0-039%-3.4
12-20SMU (33.0)AmerH0-067%5.2
12-22Coppin St. (265.1)MEACH0-098%25.3
12-30Illinois (42.2)B10H0-065%4.6
1-3Purdue (63.6)B10A0-048%-0.6
1-6Penn St. (125.3)B10A0-067%5.3
1-10Minnesota (55.3)B10H0-066%5.0
1-13Ohio St. (32.4)B10A0-034%-5.1
1-17Northwestern (162.9)B10H0-089%15.0
1-20Rutgers (176.7)B10A0-076%8.3
1-24Wisconsin (7.6)B10H0-042%-2.6
1-27Nebraska (92.0)B10H0-078%9.4
2-1Michigan St. (30.2)B10A0-033%-5.2
2-5Iowa (29.3)B10H0-056%1.8
2-8Indiana (64.5)B10A0-047%-0.8
2-12Illinois (42.2)B10A0-041%-2.6
2-17Michigan St. (30.2)B10H0-056%1.9
2-22Ohio St. (32.4)B10H0-057%2.1
2-28Maryland (60.2)B10A0-047%-0.8
3-3Northwestern (162.9)B10A0-074%7.8
3-7Rutgers (176.7)B10H0-090%15.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1035.4226.16100.0063.6435.427.13
IllinoisB100.004.30100.0066.980.001.46
Michigan St.B100.004.2666.6772.490.001.92
NorthwesternB100.004.23100.0045.530.00-0.38
Ohio St.B100.004.17100.0074.890.002.08
RutgersB100.004.1750.0037.640.00-1.03
IndianaB100.002.57100.0064.220.000.73
IowaB100.002.5450.0068.630.000.94
Penn St.B100.002.5375.0045.640.00-0.22
PurdueB100.002.53100.0060.880.000.55
WisconsinB100.002.51100.0081.920.001.60
MarylandB100.002.51100.0064.060.000.70
NebraskaB100.002.47100.0052.120.000.10
MinnesotaB100.002.4550.0064.790.000.72
OregonP126.251.97100.0071.596.250.85
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.910.0032.79-0.00-0.66
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.88100.0052.580.000.10
ArizonaP120.001.85100.0069.250.000.71
DetroitHorz25.001.820.0057.51-25.000.27
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.820.0036.71-0.00-0.48
BucknellPat25.001.8250.0048.490.00-0.05
SMUAmer0.001.8133.3368.95-0.000.69
SyracuseACC0.001.8175.0071.090.000.77
NJITind0.001.7933.3329.97-0.00-0.72
OaklandHorz0.000.220.0033.70-0.00-0.07
Arizona St.P120.000.18100.0058.420.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1833.3359.35-0.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1850.0033.640.00-0.06
VillanovaBE4.170.15100.0067.364.170.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1533.3336.31-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.15100.0069.430.000.06
CaliforniaP120.000.1575.0073.240.000.07
DukeACC0.000.15100.0086.380.000.11
ColgatePat0.000.150.0036.43-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0079.370.000.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1333.3343.51-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.1333.3331.34-0.00-0.05
UCLAP120.000.13100.0061.850.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1333.3363.82-0.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.13100.0060.630.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1350.0041.490.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0045.780.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0055.380.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0054.250.000.01
NavyPat0.000.120.0032.22-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.12100.0050.080.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3338.27-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0052.540.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0038.27-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.1266.6764.270.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0059.350.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0049.10-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.1233.3338.39-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1250.0036.850.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.12100.0066.050.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0020.87-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.100.0041.53-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1050.0063.960.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0034.37-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0034.15-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1025.0029.11-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.1066.6762.890.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.100.0036.14-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.100.0033.17-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.10100.0052.280.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.100.0035.60-0.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0025.67-0.00-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.100.0054.88-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.100.0051.62-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0045.530.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.580.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0065.86-0.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.090.0033.64-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0037.45-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0064.850.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0075.400.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.09100.0044.620.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0045.610.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.09100.0068.420.000.03
StanfordP120.000.09100.0068.290.000.03
USCP120.000.0950.0026.710.00-0.04
UtahP120.000.0966.6770.360.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0056.460.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0933.3327.05-0.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.0966.6738.520.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6750.370.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0048.390.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.20-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6777.370.000.05
ButlerBE0.000.09100.0054.180.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0933.3344.93-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0052.690.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.090.0027.11-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0073.200.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0015.85-0.00-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0041.370.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6751.250.000.00
MaineAE0.000.070.0016.80-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0045.64-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0053.20-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0038.65-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0038.12-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0054.660.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.070.0035.33-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0033.39-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.070.0051.78-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0666.6768.330.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0054.170.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0048.22-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0650.0021.230.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.95-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.29-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.23-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0057.810.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3357.87-0.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6766.420.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.950.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
LehighPat0.000.060.0035.69-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.29-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0065.36-0.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.86-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.360.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0047.150.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0666.6760.730.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0062.910.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0054.32-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0056.300.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3336.04-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.06100.0061.420.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.88-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0036.810.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.060.0034.73-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.340.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.16-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.70-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.04-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0057.560.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0041.64-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.14-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.06100.0058.330.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6747.240.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0054.04-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.040.0029.61-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.040.0043.82-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.04100.0046.320.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0061.070.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.040.0067.54-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.040.0053.38-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.040.0046.30-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0450.0057.440.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0067.860.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0057.620.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0046.41-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.810.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.410.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0016.72-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.690.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6763.800.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0035.570.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0069.720.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.91-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0035.880.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6745.850.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.100.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.210.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.850.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0060.970.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0025.820.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0065.390.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3330.78-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6755.230.000.00
MaristMAAC4.170.030.0043.44-4.17-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0043.21-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0051.300.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3332.57-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3347.72-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3358.87-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0045.55-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0033.930.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0040.180.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0044.430.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.03-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0043.330.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0056.150.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.040.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.870.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.220.000.00
VMISC0.000.0350.0043.730.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0043.90-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.560.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3352.91-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3347.78-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0051.000.000.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0084.130.000.02