Michigan

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	14.0
Current RPI:	14
Expected SOS:	13
Current SOS:	13
Current Record:	23-9
Expected Record:	23-9
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	60
Expected OOC SOS:	146

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-9	14.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Towson (311.0)	CAA	H	64-47	W	100%
11-17	Western Illinois (150.0)	Sum	H	59-55	W	100%
11-21	Memphis (16.0)	CUSA	N	61-73	W	100%
11-22	Duke (5.0)	ACC	N	82-75	L	0%
11-23	UCLA (117.0)	P12	N	79-63	W	100%
11-29	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	A	70-58	L	0%
12-3	Iowa St. (33.0)	B12	H	76-66	W	100%
12-10	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	N	90-80	W	100%
12-13	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	63-50	W	100%
12-17	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	H	87-57	W	100%
12-22	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	H	77-66	W	100%
12-29	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	H	71-53	W	100%
1-1	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	H	61-56	W	100%
1-5	Indiana (17.0)	B10	A	73-71	L	0%
1-8	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	H	59-41	W	100%
1-11	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	H	66-64	W	100%
1-14	Iowa (130.0)	B10	A	75-59	L	0%
1-17	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	H	60-59	W	100%
1-21	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	A	66-64	L	0%
1-24	Purdue (48.0)	B10	A	64-66	W	100%
1-29	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	A	64-49	L	0%
2-1	Indiana (17.0)	B10	H	68-56	W	100%
2-5	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	A	64-54	L	0%
2-8	Nebraska (154.0)	B10	A	46-62	W	100%
2-12	Illinois (92.0)	B10	H	70-61	W	100%
2-18	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	H	56-51	W	100%
2-21	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	A	55-67	W	100%
2-25	Purdue (48.0)	B10	H	61-75	L	0%
3-1	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	61-72	W	100%
3-4	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	65-71	W	100%
3-9	Minnesota (89.0)	B10	N	73-69	W	100%
3-10	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	N	55-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Michigan	B10	26.26	26.26	73.48	73.48	12.33	12.33
Ohio St.	B10	5.46	5.46	80.65	80.65	3.35	3.35
Michigan St.	B10	3.96	3.96	80.65	80.65	2.43	2.43
Purdue	B10	3.92	3.92	64.52	64.52	1.14	1.14
Indiana	B10	3.91	3.91	77.42	77.42	2.15	2.15
Northwestern	B10	3.89	3.89	62.07	62.07	0.94	0.94
Minnesota	B10	3.88	3.88	61.29	61.29	0.88	0.88
Illinois	B10	3.84	3.84	56.67	56.67	0.51	0.51
Penn St.	B10	3.82	3.82	40.00	40.00	-0.76	-0.76
Wisconsin	B10	2.45	2.45	75.00	75.00	1.22	1.22
Iowa	B10	2.43	2.43	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	2.37	2.37	41.38	41.38	-0.41	-0.41
Duke	ACC	1.70	1.70	81.25	81.25	1.06	1.06
Oakland	Sum	1.64	1.64	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.62	1.62	34.38	34.38	-0.51	-0.51
Western Illinois	Sum	1.61	1.61	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	1.61	1.61	70.00	70.00	0.64	0.64
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.61	1.61	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
Arkansas	SEC	1.59	1.59	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Towson	CAA	1.59	1.59	3.23	3.23	-1.49	-1.49
Bradley	MVC	1.59	1.59	22.58	22.58	-0.87	-0.87
Iowa St.	B12	1.59	1.59	70.97	70.97	0.67	0.67
Memphis	CUSA	1.56	1.56	78.79	78.79	0.90	0.90
UCLA	P12	1.56	1.56	58.06	58.06	0.25	0.25
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.26	0.26	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.25	0.25	63.64	63.64	0.07	0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.20	0.20	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Kansas	B12	0.19	0.19	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.18	0.18	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.17	85.29	85.29	0.12	0.12
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
Grambling	SWAC	0.16	0.16	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Alabama	SEC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.15	0.15	18.75	18.75	-0.09	-0.09
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.00	28.00	-0.06	-0.06
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.12	94.12	94.12	0.11	0.11
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	ASun	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	96.43	96.43	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01