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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:20.0
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:47
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:17
Expected OOC SOS:187


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-720.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12IUPUI (326.0)SumH91-54W100%0.0
11-13Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH77-47W100%0.0
11-21Pittsburgh (44.0)BEN67-62W100%0.0
11-23Kansas St. (19.0)B12N71-57W100%0.0
11-27North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCH79-72W100%0.0
12-1Bradley (190.0)MVCA66-74W100%0.0
12-4Western Michigan (128.0)MACH73-41W100%0.0
12-8Arkansas (89.0)SECH80-67W100%0.0
12-11Binghamton (336.0)AEH67-39W100%0.0
12-15West Virginia (146.0)B12N66-81W100%0.0
12-20Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACH93-54W100%0.0
12-29Central Michigan (268.0)MACH88-73W100%0.0
1-3Northwestern (168.0)B10A66-94W100%0.0
1-6Iowa (79.0)B10H95-67W100%0.0
1-9Nebraska (104.0)B10H62-47W100%0.0
1-13Ohio St. (10.0)B10A56-53L0%0.0
1-17Minnesota (34.0)B10A75-83W100%0.0
1-24Purdue (136.0)B10H68-53W100%0.0
1-27Illinois (40.0)B10A60-74W100%0.0
1-30Northwestern (168.0)B10H68-46W100%0.0
2-2Indiana (8.0)B10A81-73L0%0.0
2-5Ohio St. (10.0)B10H76-74W100%0.0
2-9Wisconsin (32.0)B10A65-62L0%0.0
2-12Michigan St. (9.0)B10A75-52L0%0.0
2-17Penn St. (186.0)B10H79-71W100%0.0
2-24Illinois (40.0)B10H71-58W100%0.0
2-27Penn St. (186.0)B10A84-78L0%0.0
3-3Michigan St. (9.0)B10H58-57W100%0.0
3-6Purdue (136.0)B10A75-80W100%0.0
3-10Indiana (8.0)B10H71-72L0%0.0
3-14Penn St. (186.0)B10N83-66W100%0.0
3-15Wisconsin (32.0)B10N68-59L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.2726.2779.2379.2315.3615.36
Penn St.B105.365.3632.1432.14-1.91-1.91
WisconsinB103.973.9765.6265.621.241.24
Ohio St.B103.943.9480.6580.652.412.41
PurdueB103.923.9250.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB103.923.9280.6580.652.402.40
IllinoisB103.873.8767.7467.741.371.37
Michigan St.B103.873.8776.6776.672.062.06
NorthwesternB103.853.8543.3343.33-0.51-0.51
IowaB102.462.4665.6265.620.770.77
NebraskaB102.462.4646.8846.88-0.15-0.15
MinnesotaB102.352.3564.5264.520.680.68
Eastern MichiganMAC1.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Central MichiganMAC1.741.7434.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Western MichiganMAC1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
North Carolina St.ACC1.691.6972.7372.730.770.77
West VirginiaB121.661.6641.9441.94-0.27-0.27
BradleyMVC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Kansas St.B121.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
ArkansasSEC1.611.6161.2961.290.360.36
IUPUISum1.591.5913.7913.79-1.15-1.15
Cleveland St.Horz1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
BinghamtonAE1.561.567.147.14-1.34-1.34
PittsburghBE1.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
Ball St.MAC0.300.3048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.220.2285.2985.290.150.15
ToledoMAC0.200.2053.5753.570.010.01
OaklandSum0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ButlerA100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
TexasB120.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
OklahomaB120.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Texas ChristianB120.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
New HampshireAE0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
CreightonMVC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
FloridaSEC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Virginia TechACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
ArmyPat0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
South DakotaSum0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
CornellIvy0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.7593.750.080.08
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
VirginiaACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Texas St.WAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
ColgatePat0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Notre DameBE0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.037.147.14-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
MississippiSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01