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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:47.8
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:60
Current Record:16-7
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-720.80.94%
22-826.07.49%
21-935.122.12%
20-1046.231.80%
19-1157.124.65%
18-1268.110.59%
17-1379.62.17%
16-1492.80.23%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Elon (137.9)CAAH88-68W100%0.0
11-20Xavier (8.0)BEH70-86L0%0.0
11-25Connecticut (37.4)AmerN74-60L0%0.0
11-26Charlotte (237.7)CUSAN47-102W100%0.0
11-27Texas (27.6)B12N78-72W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina St. (116.4)ACCA59-66W100%0.0
12-5Houston Baptist (204.8)SlndH82-57W100%0.0
12-8SMU (11.5)AmerA82-58L0%0.0
12-12Delaware St. (349.1)MEACH80-33W100%0.0
12-15Northern Kentucky (245.7)HorzH77-62W100%0.0
12-19Youngstown St. (259.8)HorzH105-46W100%0.0
12-23Bryant (318.1)NECH96-60W100%0.0
12-30Illinois (156.8)B10A68-78W100%0.0
1-2Penn St. (130.7)B10H79-56W100%0.0
1-7Purdue (17.8)B10A87-70L0%0.0
1-12Maryland (6.0)B10H70-67W100%0.0
1-17Iowa (7.4)B10A82-71L0%0.0
1-20Minnesota (244.7)B10H74-69W100%0.0
1-23Nebraska (145.2)B10A68-81W100%0.0
1-27Rutgers (281.2)B10H68-57W100%0.0
1-30Penn St. (130.7)B10A72-79W100%0.0
2-2Indiana (39.1)B10H67-80L0%0.0
2-6Michigan St. (17.7)B10H73-89L0%0.0
2-10Minnesota (244.7)B10A0-082%10.1
2-13Purdue (17.8)B10H0-045%-1.4
2-16Ohio St. (96.3)B10A0-059%2.5
2-21Maryland (6.0)B10A0-027%-6.6
2-24Northwestern (112.5)B10H0-079%8.7
2-28Wisconsin (63.5)B10A0-051%0.2
3-5Iowa (7.4)B10H0-044%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.1726.1066.0264.028.397.32
PurdueB102.643.9678.2676.441.492.10
IowaB102.633.9381.8280.781.672.42
MarylandB102.543.9391.3087.082.102.91
Penn St.B104.623.9154.5549.930.42-0.01
MinnesotaB102.543.8827.2729.16-1.15-1.62
NorthwesternB100.462.3566.6764.860.150.70
NebraskaB102.642.3556.5253.580.340.17
IndianaB102.502.3278.2673.161.411.08
Michigan St.B102.592.3282.6182.461.691.51
Ohio St.B100.502.3258.3354.560.080.21
WisconsinB100.412.3260.8756.060.090.28
IllinoisB102.502.2947.8345.59-0.11-0.20
RutgersB102.542.2922.7321.05-1.38-1.33
ConnecticutAmer2.261.8372.7371.581.030.79
Youngstown St.Horz2.271.7831.8233.51-0.83-0.59
Northern KentuckyHorz2.271.7535.0036.43-0.68-0.48
SMUAmer2.171.7290.4885.681.761.23
XavierBE2.231.7090.9183.801.821.15
CharlotteCUSA2.221.7036.3642.30-0.61-0.26
Delaware St.MEAC2.221.699.5212.69-1.80-1.26
ElonCAA2.221.6954.5552.220.200.08
TexasB122.221.6969.5764.290.870.48
BryantNEC2.171.6726.0927.30-1.04-0.76
Houston BaptistSlnd2.171.6752.6351.680.110.06
North Carolina St.ACC2.171.6752.1750.720.090.02
GeorgetownBE0.230.2256.0052.770.030.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.200.2059.0959.640.040.04
TempleAmer0.190.1963.6459.840.050.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1721.7422.73-0.08-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1740.0045.50-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.190.1670.8367.730.080.06
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1670.8370.840.080.07
North CarolinaACC0.140.1682.6178.660.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.150.1556.5257.000.020.02
Green BayHorz0.150.1554.5556.000.010.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.155.007.23-0.13-0.12
OaklandHorz0.240.1568.0067.980.090.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1476.1972.290.080.06
TCUB120.240.1445.8339.31-0.02-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1429.1733.14-0.08-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.1429.1733.74-0.04-0.05
MarquetteBE0.140.1462.5056.200.040.02
DukeACC0.230.1475.0071.700.110.06
CreightonBE0.140.1462.5059.800.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.180.1475.0070.940.090.06
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1456.5262.790.020.03
SyracuseACC0.140.1466.6762.580.050.03
DePaulBE0.190.1434.7834.54-0.06-0.04
Iowa St.B120.140.1473.9170.050.070.05
MemphisAmer0.140.1460.8760.780.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.190.1443.4840.57-0.02-0.03
DetroitHorz0.150.1247.6245.85-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1281.8283.040.090.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.1252.9452.160.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.1114.2920.64-0.03-0.07
DrexelCAA0.140.1113.6418.14-0.10-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.190.1145.8346.64-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.090.1128.5732.70-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.140.1136.3638.93-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.190.1163.6459.460.050.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1113.0413.55-0.14-0.08
ClemsonACC0.090.1158.3358.410.020.02
St. John'sBE0.190.1125.0023.34-0.09-0.06
ButlerBE0.090.1169.5767.170.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.114.357.73-0.08-0.09
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1143.4842.00-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.1169.5764.850.050.03
HoustonAmer0.150.1169.5766.530.060.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1142.8646.36-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.1150.0051.180.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1145.8342.26-0.01-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.1134.7837.06-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.140.1120.0019.67-0.09-0.07
Texas TechB120.140.1159.0953.170.030.01
TulaneAmer0.140.1133.3332.31-0.05-0.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1165.2261.430.030.02
MissouriSEC0.140.1134.7830.38-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1130.4326.54-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.100.0930.0029.25-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0945.0049.42-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0935.0034.72-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0954.1750.940.010.00
RiderMAAC0.100.0940.0042.12-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0977.2776.870.060.05
DelawareCAA0.100.0921.7423.33-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.050.0959.0961.320.010.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0828.5729.68-0.02-0.03
West VirginiaB120.100.0882.6179.560.060.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0852.1754.150.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0871.4369.860.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0828.0030.74-0.06-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0886.3682.380.070.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0850.0051.900.000.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0873.9169.840.050.03
New HampshireAE0.140.0857.1453.980.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0856.5256.630.010.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0841.6741.24-0.02-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.0886.9686.360.070.06
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0827.7829.14-0.02-0.03
YaleIvy0.140.0873.6874.680.070.04
ColoradoP120.140.0869.5765.360.050.03
George WashingtonA100.140.0878.2674.430.080.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.089.0917.12-0.07-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.0852.3845.690.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0845.4546.27-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0834.7835.64-0.03-0.02
BucknellPat0.140.0854.5558.170.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0836.8441.40-0.04-0.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0865.2266.070.030.03
IUPUISum0.090.0840.0039.79-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.090.0881.8277.600.060.04
Miami FLACC0.140.0881.8276.750.090.04
OklahomaB120.050.0886.9682.610.030.05
PittsburghACC0.090.0876.1968.210.050.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0856.5260.010.010.02
VMISC0.090.0815.0016.70-0.06-0.05
WashingtonP120.140.0865.2261.090.040.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.580.020.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
ToledoMAC0.100.0659.0960.100.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0621.0527.79-0.06-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0618.1821.06-0.07-0.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0654.1751.640.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0640.9143.53-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0617.6529.21-0.06-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.100.0650.0052.350.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0627.7834.19-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0615.0026.98-0.07-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0665.2264.210.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0670.8369.500.040.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.410.020.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0640.9145.29-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0621.7423.39-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0647.3749.98-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.06-0.04-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0631.5831.08-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0621.7423.66-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0645.4547.56-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0647.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.73-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.320.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.700.020.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.690.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.030.010.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.360.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.2676.800.030.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0564.0064.140.010.02
StanfordP120.090.0550.0046.620.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0526.0929.19-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0524.0025.69-0.05-0.03
BaylorB120.050.0572.7366.460.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0544.0045.27-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0563.6456.440.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0522.7327.19-0.05-0.02
FurmanSC0.090.0554.1754.070.010.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.8758.370.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0536.3639.78-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0571.4368.720.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0579.1776.080.050.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.0022.32-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0560.8763.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3333.02-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0550.0051.290.000.00
SamfordSC0.090.0541.6742.60-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0582.6179.410.060.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0566.6770.550.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.6413.62-0.03-0.04
VermontAE0.050.0552.0054.870.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0582.6178.070.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0554.1749.230.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.620.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.04-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.79-0.04-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.37-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.15-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0352.3847.040.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.630.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.50-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.17-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.62-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.100.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.170.010.01
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.490.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.040.010.00
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.570.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.60-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.76-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.49-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.47-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.720.030.02
USCP120.050.0378.2673.050.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.30-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0320.8324.10-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.9686.690.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0354.1754.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0315.0018.08-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.570.020.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.9171.560.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0334.7837.17-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.12-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0369.5769.090.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.160.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0363.1658.810.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0317.3920.66-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0352.1751.940.000.00
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.910.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01