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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:56.0
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:45
Current SOS:45
Current Record:21-12
Expected Record:21-12
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1256.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Elon (160.0)CAAH88-68W100%0.0
11-20Xavier (7.0)BEH70-86L0%0.0
11-25Connecticut (32.0)AmerN74-60L0%0.0
11-26Charlotte (234.0)CUSAN47-102W100%0.0
11-27Texas (27.0)B12N78-72W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA59-66W100%0.0
12-5Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH82-57W100%0.0
12-8SMU (13.0)AmerA82-58L0%0.0
12-12Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH80-33W100%0.0
12-15Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH77-62W100%0.0
12-19Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH105-46W100%0.0
12-23Bryant (320.0)NECH96-60W100%0.0
12-30Illinois (149.0)B10A68-78W100%0.0
1-2Penn St. (125.0)B10H79-56W100%0.0
1-7Purdue (15.0)B10A87-70L0%0.0
1-12Maryland (14.0)B10H70-67W100%0.0
1-17Iowa (28.0)B10A82-71L0%0.0
1-20Minnesota (257.0)B10H74-69W100%0.0
1-23Nebraska (165.0)B10A68-81W100%0.0
1-27Rutgers (294.0)B10H68-57W100%0.0
1-30Penn St. (125.0)B10A72-79W100%0.0
2-2Indiana (24.0)B10H67-80L0%0.0
2-6Michigan St. (12.0)B10H73-89L0%0.0
2-10Minnesota (257.0)B10A74-82W100%0.0
2-13Purdue (15.0)B10H61-56W100%0.0
2-16Ohio St. (74.0)B10A76-66L0%0.0
2-21Maryland (14.0)B10A86-82L0%0.0
2-24Northwestern (115.0)B10H72-63W100%0.0
2-28Wisconsin (43.0)B10A68-57L0%0.0
3-5Iowa (28.0)B10H61-71L0%0.0
3-10Northwestern (115.0)B10N72-70W100%0.0
3-11Indiana (24.0)B10N69-72W100%0.0
3-12Purdue (15.0)B10N76-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.2126.2161.9061.906.246.24
PurdueB105.185.1877.4277.422.842.84
MarylandB103.703.7076.6776.671.971.97
IowaB103.683.6865.5265.521.141.14
NorthwesternB103.663.6666.6766.671.221.22
IndianaB103.643.6480.0080.002.182.18
Penn St.B103.643.6453.3353.330.240.24
MinnesotaB103.643.6427.5927.59-1.63-1.63
NebraskaB102.342.3448.4848.48-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB102.322.3245.4545.45-0.21-0.21
Michigan St.B102.292.2984.8584.851.601.60
Ohio St.B102.242.2459.3859.380.420.42
WisconsinB102.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
RutgersB102.142.1420.0020.00-1.29-1.29
ConnecticutAmer1.661.6669.7069.700.650.65
Youngstown St.Horz1.641.6431.0331.03-0.62-0.62
Northern KentuckyHorz1.591.5925.9325.93-0.77-0.77
SMUAmer1.561.5682.7682.761.021.02
XavierBE1.541.5483.8783.871.041.04
CharlotteCUSA1.541.5443.7543.75-0.19-0.19
ElonCAA1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC1.541.5417.2417.24-1.01-1.01
TexasB121.541.5464.5264.520.450.45
BryantNEC1.521.5224.1424.14-0.78-0.78
Houston BaptistSlnd1.521.5246.4346.43-0.11-0.11
North Carolina St.ACC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
TempleAmer0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.110.11
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
MemphisAmer0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.040.04
DetroitHorz0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
OaklandHorz0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1276.6776.670.070.07
TCUB120.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1256.0056.000.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
Iowa St.B120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
SyracuseACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0729.1729.17-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VermontAE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0424.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00