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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:25.0
Current RPI:25
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:27
Current Record:24-11
Expected Record:24-11
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:44
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1125.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Howard (337.0)MEACH76-58W100%0.0
11-13IUPUI (218.0)SumH77-65W100%0.0
11-17Marquette (60.0)BEN61-79W100%0.0
11-18SMU (13.0)AmerN76-54W100%0.0
11-23South Carolina (42.0)SECA61-46L0%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH64-47W100%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH70-73L0%0.0
12-3Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH82-55W100%0.0
12-6Texas (156.0)B12H53-50W100%0.0
12-10UCLA (16.0)P12A102-84L0%0.0
12-13Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH97-53W100%0.0
12-17Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH98-49W100%0.0
12-22Furman (96.0)SCH68-62W100%0.0
1-1Iowa (81.0)B10A86-83L0%0.0
1-4Penn St. (101.0)B10H72-69W100%0.0
1-7Maryland (36.0)B10H70-77L0%0.0
1-11Illinois (62.0)B10A85-69L0%0.0
1-14Nebraska (107.0)B10H91-85W100%0.0
1-17Wisconsin (35.0)B10A68-64L0%0.0
1-21Illinois (62.0)B10H66-57W100%0.0
1-26Indiana (79.0)B10H90-60W100%0.0
1-29Michigan St. (51.0)B10A70-62L0%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (90.0)B10H66-70L0%0.0
2-7Michigan St. (51.0)B10H86-57W100%0.0
2-12Indiana (79.0)B10A63-75W100%0.0
2-16Wisconsin (35.0)B10H64-58W100%0.0
2-19Minnesota (20.0)B10A83-78L0%0.0
2-22Rutgers (177.0)B10A64-68W100%0.0
2-25Purdue (19.0)B10H82-70W100%0.0
3-1Northwestern (50.0)B10A67-65L0%0.0
3-5Nebraska (107.0)B10A57-93W100%0.0
3-9Illinois (62.0)B10N75-55W100%0.0
3-10Purdue (19.0)B10N70-74W100%0.0
3-11Minnesota (20.0)B10N77-84W100%0.0
3-12Wisconsin (35.0)B10N56-71W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.2726.2768.0968.099.509.50
WisconsinB104.954.9577.4277.422.712.71
IllinoisB104.824.8257.1457.140.690.69
MinnesotaB103.543.5474.1974.191.711.71
IndianaB103.543.5458.0658.060.570.57
Michigan St.B103.523.5258.0658.060.570.57
NebraskaB103.473.4739.2939.29-0.74-0.74
PurdueB103.453.4583.3383.332.302.30
NorthwesternB102.282.2866.6766.670.760.76
Penn St.B102.212.2146.8846.88-0.14-0.14
IowaB102.172.1754.8454.840.210.21
Ohio St.B102.162.1651.6151.610.070.07
MarylandB102.122.1273.3373.330.990.99
RutgersB102.092.0945.1645.16-0.20-0.20
IUPUISum1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
HowardMEAC1.541.5425.8125.81-0.75-0.75
MarquetteBE1.541.5463.3363.330.410.41
UCLAP121.501.5087.5087.501.121.12
Virginia TechACC1.501.5067.7467.740.530.53
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.501.5038.7138.71-0.34-0.34
Central ArkansasSlnd1.491.4925.8125.81-0.72-0.72
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.471.4757.5857.580.220.22
Kennesaw St.ASun1.451.4541.3841.38-0.25-0.25
TexasB121.451.4534.3834.38-0.45-0.45
FurmanSC1.431.4365.5265.520.440.44
SMUAmer1.431.4390.9190.911.171.17
South CarolinaSEC1.431.4366.6766.670.480.48
Florida St.ACC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
CreightonBE0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
NJITASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.143.333.33-0.13-0.13
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
ButlerBE0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
ClemsonACC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
SyracuseACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
OklahomaB120.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.090.0980.0080.000.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0991.1891.180.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0436.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0437.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0436.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0432.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0440.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
OregonP120.040.0484.8584.850.030.03
Oregon St.P120.040.0412.9012.90-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
George MasonA100.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
StanfordP120.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0418.5218.52-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.040.0467.7467.740.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0410.0010.00-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.040.0446.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00