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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:37.6
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:58
Current Record:16-5
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-512.60.40%
24-617.03.41%
23-722.813.27%
22-829.926.07%
21-938.527.35%
20-1047.918.95%
19-1158.68.32%
18-1270.91.93%
17-1385.20.28%
16-14105.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Florida (241.9)ASunH86-66W100%0.0
11-13Central Michigan (146.9)MACH72-65W100%0.0
11-16Southern Miss (223.2)CUSAH61-47W100%0.0
11-20LSU (102.7)SECN77-75L0%0.0
11-22VCU (127.7)A10N68-60W100%0.0
11-26UC Riverside (301.7)BWH87-42W100%0.0
11-29North Carolina (5.5)ACCA86-71L0%0.0
12-2Indiana (115.7)B10H69-55W100%0.0
12-4Ohio St. (21.1)B10A71-62L0%0.0
12-9UCLA (63.4)P12H78-69W100%0.0
12-12Texas (46.2)B12A52-59W100%0.0
12-16Detroit (297.3)HorzN90-58W100%0.0
12-21Alabama A&M (348.6)SWACH97-47W100%0.0
12-30Jacksonville (301.6)ASunH76-51W100%0.0
1-2Iowa (156.8)B10A68-75W100%0.0
1-6Illinois (161.2)B10H79-69W100%0.0
1-9Purdue (6.5)B10H69-70L0%0.0
1-13Michigan St. (21.5)B10A72-82W100%0.0
1-15Maryland (45.2)B10H68-67W100%0.0
1-18Nebraska (100.5)B10A72-52L0%0.0
1-21Rutgers (187.9)B10H62-47W100%0.0
1-25Purdue (6.5)B10A0-014%-11.8
1-29Northwestern (127.8)B10H0-077%8.2
2-3Minnesota (98.1)B10H0-077%8.1
2-6Northwestern (127.8)B10A0-056%1.8
2-11Wisconsin (128.8)B10A0-057%2.0
2-14Iowa (156.8)B10H0-083%10.6
2-18Ohio St. (21.1)B10H0-060%2.9
2-21Penn St. (114.6)B10A0-055%1.3
2-24Maryland (45.2)B10A0-043%-2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.3126.1175.2970.8713.3110.89
Ohio St.B102.683.9380.0076.991.612.12
MarylandB102.673.9373.6867.871.271.41
PurdueB102.613.9190.0088.062.092.97
IowaB102.743.9150.0046.470.00-0.28
NorthwesternB100.303.9055.0051.530.030.12
Penn St.B100.242.3861.9056.100.060.29
MinnesotaB100.482.3763.6458.770.130.42
Michigan St.B102.862.3589.4785.972.261.69
WisconsinB100.412.3550.0046.420.00-0.17
IndianaB102.502.3261.1152.460.550.11
RutgersB102.672.3257.8948.300.42-0.08
NebraskaB102.562.2765.0058.480.770.38
IllinoisB102.552.2750.0045.800.00-0.19
North FloridaASun2.631.8133.3336.45-0.88-0.49
North CarolinaACC2.501.7578.9574.231.450.85
JacksonvilleASun2.441.7335.2935.07-0.72-0.52
Alabama A&MSWAC2.451.7211.1117.31-1.91-1.13
VCUA102.511.7263.1661.690.660.40
UCLAP122.441.7268.4264.190.900.49
LSUSEC2.441.7058.8251.550.430.05
DetroitHorz2.441.6922.2226.89-1.36-0.78
Southern MissCUSA2.441.6943.7539.95-0.31-0.34
TexasB122.441.6966.6759.550.810.32
Central MichiganMAC2.381.6766.6760.870.790.36
UC RiversideBW2.381.6718.7524.74-1.49-0.84
LipscombASun0.250.2052.9459.340.010.04
ButlerBE0.240.1966.6763.070.080.05
Chicago St.WAC0.110.190.003.07-0.11-0.18
UABCUSA0.260.1761.1164.130.060.05
NJITASun0.190.1538.8942.61-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.1533.3336.93-0.02-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.130.1511.1118.00-0.10-0.09
OhioMAC0.200.1447.0648.41-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.1438.8943.43-0.04-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.130.1447.3748.77-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.180.1442.1134.31-0.03-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.190.1468.4258.980.070.02
Notre DameACC0.250.1463.1661.020.070.03
StanfordP120.180.1455.0050.370.020.00
DukeACC0.180.1489.4785.210.150.10
MarquetteBE0.180.1468.4260.550.070.03
SouthernSWAC0.120.1427.7840.97-0.05-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1336.8444.11-0.05-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1257.8966.260.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1216.6724.91-0.09-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.200.1246.6746.97-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.1221.0523.51-0.11-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1245.0047.07-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1140.0043.35-0.04-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.1141.1839.16-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.190.1136.8431.12-0.05-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1120.0023.34-0.11-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.1165.0056.340.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1168.4270.810.050.05
IUPUIHorz0.120.1127.7829.83-0.05-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1137.5033.78-0.05-0.04
CreightonBE0.120.1175.0070.700.060.05
Georgia TechACC0.120.1152.6343.110.01-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.180.1136.8445.21-0.05-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1123.5332.57-0.06-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1168.4257.740.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.1168.4264.200.050.03
BucknellPat0.180.1161.9068.020.040.04
ColoradoP120.120.1160.0053.720.020.01
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7867.910.000.04
Texas TechB120.060.1178.9571.810.040.05
LouisvilleACC0.120.1178.9569.790.070.04
TennesseeSEC0.120.1172.2268.930.050.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1116.6724.26-0.08-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1184.2173.240.080.05
Iowa St.B120.120.1161.1147.220.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.1121.0544.26-0.03-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.140.0961.1158.700.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0923.5328.21-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0952.6355.290.000.01
UTSACUSA0.130.0941.1839.65-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.0972.2258.920.060.02
Wright St.Horz0.130.0968.4269.250.050.03
ToledoMAC0.140.0966.6767.700.050.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0952.9452.230.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0930.0039.93-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.0938.8940.78-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.190.0973.6869.640.090.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0927.7831.71-0.06-0.03
MissouriSEC0.130.0966.6763.200.040.02
FairfieldMAAC0.120.0838.8944.08-0.03-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0825.0027.94-0.03-0.04
OaklandHorz0.120.0861.9065.160.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0847.0641.41-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0836.8432.76-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0877.7870.480.030.03
La SalleA100.060.0840.0042.69-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.180.0875.0067.890.090.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0866.6768.730.020.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0868.4261.230.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0868.4263.960.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.0812.5025.45-0.10-0.04
ArizonaP120.060.0880.0078.940.030.05
FordhamA100.120.0831.5829.06-0.04-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.120.0833.3337.23-0.04-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0861.1156.090.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0855.0048.980.01-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0845.0041.300.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0845.0043.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.120.0880.9583.260.070.05
KansasB120.120.0884.2179.750.080.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.0835.2940.48-0.04-0.02
VirginiaACC0.120.0894.7486.140.110.06
Western CarolinaSC0.120.0838.8935.37-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0672.2274.710.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0656.2556.830.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0617.6519.30-0.05-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0668.7563.990.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0644.4444.92-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0658.8262.440.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0670.5969.630.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.0668.4263.650.050.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0673.6872.380.060.03
SeattleWAC0.130.0657.8954.500.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.0668.4254.070.050.00
North TexasCUSA0.130.0644.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.9576.750.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0629.4133.20-0.06-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0673.6871.560.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.0670.0071.230.050.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.0643.7549.13-0.02-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.0657.8953.190.020.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.1146.000.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0666.6773.210.020.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.0610.0019.63-0.10-0.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0670.5973.150.030.03
WoffordSC0.120.0668.7563.690.050.02
Fort WayneSum0.130.0652.6351.690.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.065.8819.35-0.11-0.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0647.3746.92-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.140.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6755.940.020.01
KentuckySEC0.130.0673.6867.970.060.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0622.2228.660.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0615.7920.91-0.04-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.060.0665.0063.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0657.8950.840.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0630.0033.470.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0642.1146.090.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.0626.3231.50-0.06-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0655.5655.540.010.01
USCP120.000.0671.4368.280.000.02
UtahP120.060.0663.1659.710.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0636.8435.57-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0544.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.059.5217.90-0.05-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0552.6345.860.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.130.0527.7832.66-0.06-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.0542.1140.46-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0530.0036.50-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0565.0054.670.030.01
DavidsonA100.060.0558.8261.450.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0547.3750.94-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0573.6862.720.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0583.3381.370.040.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.050.0010.67-0.06-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0557.1453.050.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0563.1663.220.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0568.4254.090.020.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0530.0032.520.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0540.0030.870.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0521.0539.480.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0557.8958.850.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0531.5834.36-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0557.1460.410.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0572.2272.980.030.02
TCUB120.060.0573.6865.600.030.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0518.7518.36-0.04-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0584.2178.170.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0564.7159.990.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.460.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.640.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.740.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.29-0.05-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.140.010.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0347.0644.910.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.020.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0377.7879.150.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0370.5975.950.030.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0378.9576.130.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.000.000.02
BryantNEC0.060.039.5217.12-0.05-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0352.3848.530.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0389.4785.550.050.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0310.5327.29-0.05-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0344.4446.02-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0316.6716.16-0.04-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0383.3384.240.040.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0343.7554.11-0.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.850.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0373.6865.260.030.01
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.020.01
Washington St.P120.060.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.1139.940.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0347.0647.410.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0320.0032.250.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.030.009.09-0.06-0.02
DuquesneA100.060.0370.0058.090.020.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0329.4133.93-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0366.6765.520.020.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0337.5046.690.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0321.0522.02-0.03-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0333.3340.08-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.76-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.037.1414.82-0.05-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0060.470.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.430.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0365.0065.320.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0350.0051.640.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0363.1657.890.020.00
UCFAmer0.060.0368.4260.860.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3333.870.00-0.01
VMISC0.060.0325.0024.15-0.03-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0350.0059.450.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0341.1847.560.00-0.00