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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:47.8
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:41
Current Record:18-10
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:8-7
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1034.812.84%
20-1143.440.04%
19-1252.536.66%
18-1363.710.45%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Howard (339.6)MEACH76-58W100%0.0
11-13IUPUI (230.6)SumH77-65W100%0.0
11-17Marquette (63.6)BEN61-79W100%0.0
11-18SMU (17.9)AmerN76-54W100%0.0
11-23South Carolina (30.8)SECA61-46L0%0.0
11-26Mount St. Mary's (154.6)NECH64-47W100%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (45.3)ACCH70-73L0%0.0
12-3Kennesaw St. (269.8)ASunH82-55W100%0.0
12-6Texas (155.2)B12H53-50W100%0.0
12-10UCLA (17.7)P12A102-84L0%0.0
12-13Central Arkansas (289.7)SlndH97-53W100%0.0
12-17Maryland Eastern Shore (301.7)MEACH98-49W100%0.0
12-22Furman (99.8)SCH68-62W100%0.0
1-1Iowa (108.6)B10A86-83L0%0.0
1-4Penn St. (86.9)B10H72-69W100%0.0
1-7Maryland (26.7)B10H70-77L0%0.0
1-11Illinois (66.4)B10A85-69L0%0.0
1-14Nebraska (83.8)B10H91-85W100%0.0
1-17Wisconsin (20.9)B10A68-64L0%0.0
1-21Illinois (66.4)B10H66-57W100%0.0
1-26Indiana (90.9)B10H90-60W100%0.0
1-29Michigan St. (47.4)B10A70-62L0%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (86.4)B10H66-70L0%0.0
2-7Michigan St. (47.4)B10H86-57W100%0.0
2-12Indiana (90.9)B10A63-75W100%0.0
2-16Wisconsin (20.9)B10H64-58W100%0.0
2-19Minnesota (20.9)B10A83-78L0%0.0
2-22Rutgers (174.2)B10A64-68W100%0.0
2-25Purdue (17.2)B10H0-042%-2.1
3-1Northwestern (48.9)B10A0-048%-0.6
3-5Nebraska (83.8)B10A0-066%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1026.1826.0961.1160.725.825.60
WisconsinB104.063.8384.0082.962.762.53
NebraskaB102.273.8345.8344.58-0.19-0.41
Michigan St.B103.893.7860.0058.480.780.64
IllinoisB103.993.7856.0055.380.480.41
IndianaB104.063.7857.6956.590.630.50
NorthwesternB100.692.3371.4368.880.300.88
Ohio St.B102.352.3051.8550.750.090.03
IowaB102.312.2851.8549.970.09-0.00
MinnesotaB102.372.2774.0772.591.141.03
MarylandB102.342.2576.9276.201.261.18
Penn St.B102.342.2551.8550.360.090.02
PurdueB100.622.2482.1481.550.401.42
RutgersB102.312.2244.4443.79-0.26-0.28
HowardMEAC1.921.7520.0022.20-1.15-0.97
IUPUISum1.921.7540.0040.53-0.38-0.33
MarquetteBE1.921.7265.3863.530.590.47
Virginia TechACC1.861.7069.2368.180.710.62
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.851.7032.0034.92-0.67-0.51
UCLAP121.851.6988.4687.651.431.28
Central ArkansasSlnd1.851.6628.5729.11-0.79-0.70
Kennesaw St.ASun1.821.6442.3142.26-0.28-0.25
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.821.6453.5755.500.130.18
TexasB121.791.6437.0436.00-0.46-0.46
FurmanSC1.791.6166.6766.810.600.54
SMUAmer1.791.6188.8988.401.391.24
South CarolinaSEC1.791.6169.2369.530.690.63
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1620.0020.88-0.12-0.10
CreightonBE0.130.1677.7875.390.070.08
GeorgetownBE0.200.1650.0049.130.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1625.9327.44-0.06-0.07
KansasB120.130.1689.2987.840.100.12
ButlerBE0.160.1678.5777.620.090.09
St. John'sBE0.200.1642.8642.05-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.140.003.38-0.17-0.13
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1450.0049.670.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1475.0077.120.080.07
ClemsonACC0.130.1451.8553.680.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1353.8554.930.010.01
Seton HallBE0.160.1362.9661.760.040.03
PittsburghACC0.160.1353.5750.750.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1340.7442.17-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.160.1378.5777.800.090.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.1342.8645.36-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.160.1382.1480.660.100.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1314.2918.10-0.09-0.08
South DakotaSum0.070.1162.9662.810.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1120.0022.21-0.08-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1165.3866.650.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1169.2370.270.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1128.0029.86-0.06-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1173.0873.880.060.05
Fort WayneSum0.100.1160.0060.590.020.02
NJITASun0.100.1129.6330.60-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1121.4321.43-0.08-0.06
UMBCAE0.130.1161.5460.470.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1144.0045.06-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1122.2222.75-0.07-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1114.8115.43-0.09-0.07
DePaulBE0.100.1132.1430.89-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.130.1178.5776.210.070.06
SyracuseACC0.130.1158.6257.910.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1151.8552.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.130.1166.6767.600.040.04
DukeACC0.130.1078.5776.170.070.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1038.4638.56-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1082.1481.760.090.07
LouisvilleACC0.100.1078.5778.520.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1066.6765.160.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.130.1075.0071.920.060.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1066.6763.170.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.1075.0074.370.030.05
ArizonaP120.100.1089.2987.680.080.08
BaylorB120.100.1081.4878.550.060.06
Iowa St.B120.130.1066.6764.750.040.03
OklahomaB120.130.1033.3333.59-0.04-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.1046.4344.09-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.100.0840.7440.78-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0851.8551.810.000.00
StetsonASun0.100.0829.6328.76-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0826.0925.92-0.03-0.04
AmericanPat0.100.0825.0025.07-0.05-0.04
The CitadelSC0.100.0823.0822.08-0.05-0.05
VMISC0.100.0816.0016.75-0.07-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.100.0826.9225.66-0.05-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0825.9326.05-0.05-0.04
George WashingtonA100.100.0851.8551.210.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0846.1546.92-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0833.3334.37-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.040.0880.7779.440.020.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0832.1430.40-0.02-0.03
VCUA100.100.0882.1479.370.060.05
WinthropBSth0.100.0876.0077.350.050.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0870.3767.240.030.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0860.7159.870.010.02
MissouriSEC0.100.0825.9325.77-0.05-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0851.7249.530.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.100.0857.6957.630.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0848.1548.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0837.0436.81-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0886.2186.330.070.06
ProvidenceBE0.060.0860.7160.840.010.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0851.8551.660.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0853.5751.920.010.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0889.6688.760.050.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0818.5220.01-0.06-0.05
Kansas St.B120.100.0860.7159.890.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0842.3143.88-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0835.7137.15-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0812.0011.80-0.05-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0888.8987.450.070.06
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0850.0049.270.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0860.7158.720.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0822.7323.17-0.03-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0859.0960.070.010.02
TCUB120.100.0859.2657.620.020.01
USCP120.100.0877.7875.870.050.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0876.0076.570.050.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0832.1431.91-0.04-0.03
DenverSum0.070.0657.1456.680.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0655.5655.680.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0665.3864.780.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0630.7732.11-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0650.0049.750.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0677.7877.990.040.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0641.6743.49-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0655.5656.300.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0669.2368.790.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0644.4443.90-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0634.7836.95-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0537.5039.90-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0532.1432.21-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0551.8551.270.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0550.0048.770.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.0551.8553.220.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0564.2963.820.020.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0574.0773.870.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0565.5264.140.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0553.8551.910.010.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0522.2222.38-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0582.1480.600.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0551.8550.690.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0562.9662.600.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0560.7159.030.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0564.2964.300.010.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0561.5459.750.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0560.7159.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0555.5652.750.010.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0557.1455.800.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0536.3636.47-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0558.6259.810.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0569.2368.600.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0530.7730.10-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.060.0555.5655.660.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0546.4343.89-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0564.0065.600.010.02
George MasonA100.060.0562.9661.470.020.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0557.6958.300.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0570.3769.130.030.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0516.0016.87-0.04-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0531.8233.09-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.060.0544.0043.41-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0540.7442.89-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0544.0046.00-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0534.7833.41-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.070.0550.0048.510.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0527.2728.66-0.01-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0574.0773.500.030.02
OregonP120.070.0585.7185.930.050.04
Oregon St.P120.070.0514.2913.58-0.05-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0530.7734.71-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0537.9339.64-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0544.8343.96-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0548.2848.17-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0510.7111.38-0.02-0.04
StanfordP120.060.0550.0047.370.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0552.1753.700.000.00
TempleAmer0.060.0548.2850.61-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0560.7159.310.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0518.5218.47-0.04-0.03
TulsaAmer0.030.0546.1547.81-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0512.5014.87-0.05-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.060.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.060.0552.0053.230.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0533.3332.52-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.030.0542.3139.94-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0542.3143.63-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0328.0028.91-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.9661.340.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0329.6331.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0382.1481.630.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0348.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.7729.92-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0353.3353.310.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.0013.36-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0357.6956.380.010.00
AkronMAC0.030.0377.7876.390.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.3864.150.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0340.9140.59-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6765.300.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.5462.870.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0312.0011.56-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0340.0041.64-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0329.1729.85-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.6742.37-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0328.5729.06-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0316.0018.13-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0344.4444.02-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0357.6957.750.010.00
HartfordAE0.030.0330.0029.22-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0344.0045.26-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0350.0050.080.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0333.3331.80-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0317.2417.48-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0382.7681.880.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0357.1456.440.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0331.0331.60-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0325.0025.84-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.2659.930.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0357.1457.270.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0364.2961.960.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0382.7682.940.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0339.2938.46-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0364.0064.920.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.3373.730.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0369.5771.400.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0343.4843.27-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0366.6766.210.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0026.71-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0331.0332.74-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0330.4331.13-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0357.6955.370.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0059.400.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.3865.420.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.5042.38-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0355.5655.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0350.0052.050.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0359.2660.160.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.0055.900.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0320.0021.74-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0348.1549.03-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0353.8554.710.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0363.6464.970.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0348.0047.41-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0348.1547.59-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.6329.44-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0358.3359.220.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.7440.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.8762.050.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0326.0928.38-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0328.0028.37-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0360.0060.170.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.3143.98-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0362.9662.450.010.01