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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Michigan

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:39.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:52
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-25.00.01%
26-33.30.07%
25-45.00.37%
24-57.51.48%
23-610.83.78%
22-715.58.32%
21-821.213.73%
20-928.717.74%
19-1037.818.91%
18-1149.116.04%
17-1261.910.40%
16-1376.25.79%
15-1492.22.19%
14-15110.00.86%
13-16126.10.27%
12-17146.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Bucknell (231.7)PatH77-53W100%0.0
11-20Detroit (108.1)HorzH71-62W100%0.0
11-24Oregon (66.8)P12N63-70W100%0.0
11-25Villanova (25.3)BEN55-60L0%0.0
11-29Nicholls St. (296.5)SlndH0-099%26.6
12-2Syracuse (39.0)ACCH0-059%2.8
12-6NJIT (303.4)indH0-099%26.7
12-9Eastern Michigan (159.8)MACH0-092%16.9
12-13Arizona (18.1)P12A0-033%-5.3
12-20SMU (36.8)AmerH0-068%5.5
12-22Coppin St. (283.4)MEACH0-099%26.9
12-30Illinois (47.9)B10H0-065%4.6
1-3Purdue (51.0)B10A0-039%-3.2
1-6Penn St. (130.5)B10A0-070%6.2
1-10Minnesota (74.0)B10H0-071%6.6
1-13Ohio St. (32.1)B10A0-032%-5.6
1-17Northwestern (159.1)B10H0-091%15.8
1-20Rutgers (229.7)B10A0-088%14.0
1-24Wisconsin (7.1)B10H0-038%-3.7
1-27Nebraska (77.9)B10H0-075%8.2
2-1Michigan St. (31.5)B10A0-032%-5.7
2-5Iowa (46.6)B10H0-061%3.4
2-8Indiana (88.9)B10A0-052%0.6
2-12Illinois (47.9)B10A0-042%-2.5
2-17Michigan St. (31.5)B10H0-055%1.5
2-22Ohio St. (32.1)B10H0-055%1.6
2-28Maryland (40.4)B10A0-040%-3.1
3-3Northwestern (159.1)B10A0-076%8.6
3-7Rutgers (229.7)B10H0-096%21.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
MichiganB1029.7926.1468.7563.2911.176.95
IllinoisB100.004.17100.0067.070.001.42
Michigan St.B100.004.1175.0073.600.001.94
NorthwesternB100.004.08100.0045.910.00-0.33
Ohio St.B100.004.02100.0075.950.002.09
RutgersB100.004.0250.0025.570.00-1.96
IndianaB100.002.4780.0058.420.000.42
IowaB100.002.4560.0065.140.000.74
Penn St.B100.002.4483.3348.610.00-0.07
PurdueB100.002.4480.0067.260.000.84
WisconsinB100.002.42100.0085.060.001.70
MarylandB100.002.42100.0072.490.001.09
NebraskaB100.002.3875.0054.300.000.21
MinnesotaB100.002.3666.6760.580.000.50
OregonP1213.751.9075.0065.356.880.58
VillanovaBE13.541.87100.0077.2913.541.02
Coppin St.MEAC1.251.840.0028.51-1.25-0.79
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.81100.0053.080.000.11
ArizonaP120.001.78100.0076.200.000.93
BucknellPat13.751.7840.0037.92-2.75-0.43
SyracuseACC0.001.7880.0068.800.000.67
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.750.0032.98-0.00-0.60
DetroitHorz13.751.7575.0061.356.880.40
NJITind0.001.7520.0029.20-0.00-0.73
SMUAmer0.001.7540.0067.77-0.000.62
OaklandHorz0.000.2120.0029.38-0.00-0.09
HamptonMEAC0.000.1820.0045.09-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1850.0030.040.00-0.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1850.0037.650.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.1760.0054.250.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.540.1514.2929.93-2.53-0.06
ToledoMAC3.540.1540.0060.63-0.710.03
St. John'sBE0.000.15100.0052.030.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.1580.0071.450.000.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1520.0031.41-0.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.14100.0084.950.000.10
CaliforniaP120.000.1475.0069.250.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0079.500.000.08
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0058.780.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.1425.0039.71-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1233.3346.11-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1260.0042.550.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0053.790.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6753.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1260.0047.180.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.12100.0065.220.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.12100.0066.730.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3340.07-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0038.95-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.1220.0031.41-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1266.6756.780.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1250.0053.310.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.1160.0057.160.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1120.0038.78-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1140.0036.72-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1166.6744.530.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1125.0048.23-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.1150.0028.900.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1133.3333.44-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0065.620.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.11100.0069.870.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0023.12-0.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0053.250.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.1033.3361.54-0.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0036.60-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1025.0046.48-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0925.0037.60-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.090.0028.76-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0025.45-0.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.0975.0065.570.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0050.30-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0925.0044.79-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0044.550.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0940.0038.29-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.000.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0059.140.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0070.310.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0039.00-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0966.6769.740.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0925.0037.50-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0975.0054.260.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0048.890.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0049.930.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0060.560.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0027.32-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0059.500.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0980.0070.420.000.04
UtahP120.000.0966.6772.710.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0052.850.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0055.960.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0933.3329.16-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0052.120.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6772.650.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0049.350.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.30-0.00-0.04
LehighPat1.250.090.0035.78-1.25-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0940.0028.76-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0081.280.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0017.79-0.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.08100.0057.240.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0850.0050.280.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0850.0031.510.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.070.0017.58-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0046.74-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0047.30-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0028.11-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB1.250.060.0038.65-1.25-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.41-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0030.42-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.25-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0055.470.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0070.940.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.980.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0020.71-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.01-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.350.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0041.110.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0067.350.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.34-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0029.35-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.300.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0640.0039.52-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0064.97-0.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.07-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0085.190.000.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0057.70-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0675.0073.980.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.380.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0032.36-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0055.20-0.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0044.83-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0043.080.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3337.42-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.90-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0044.920.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0057.210.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0049.91-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.040.0633.3340.46-0.35-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3349.68-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0042.26-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.26-0.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.980.000.01
VCUA102.500.0680.0073.821.500.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.71-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0031.79-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3336.17-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.74-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0056.990.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0675.0047.770.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0053.43-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.74-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0044.90-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.43-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0042.64-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.850.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.830.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0366.6762.900.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.34-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0066.760.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.72-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.550.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0058.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.110.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3333.84-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3323.56-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0072.230.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0325.0036.61-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.15-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6738.430.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3344.17-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0050.46-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0040.73-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.950.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.32-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.500.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.22-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6761.780.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0031.23-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC1.040.030.0031.98-1.04-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.940.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0040.15-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.03-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6750.600.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0068.250.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0018.08-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.41-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.70-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.780.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0073.990.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.110.000.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6754.750.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.120.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6754.040.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0043.63-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.56-0.000.00