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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:22.2
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:57
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-23.50.10%
28-35.41.02%
27-47.64.05%
26-510.49.79%
25-614.216.72%
24-718.220.28%
23-823.320.30%
22-929.514.15%
21-1037.48.18%
20-1147.13.60%
19-1258.21.30%
18-1372.30.37%
17-1488.00.12%
16-1592.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndH79-47W100%0.0
11-15Creighton (23.9)BEA79-67L0%0.0
11-17Chicago St. (273.9)WACH69-51W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee (130.0)SECN74-62W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (97.1)BEN57-73W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina (5.3)ACCN71-56L0%0.0
11-27Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH95-50W100%0.0
11-29Syracuse (52.7)ACCH77-60W100%0.0
12-3Oklahoma (79.1)B12H90-70W100%0.0
12-7Idaho St. (284.4)BSkyH0-099%29.9
12-10Marquette (46.7)BEA0-054%1.1
12-14Green Bay (148.5)HorzH0-097%22.0
12-23Florida A&M (345.5)MEACH0-0100%38.7
12-27Rutgers (168.4)B10H0-096%20.4
1-3Indiana (20.4)B10A0-044%-1.9
1-8Purdue (28.0)B10A0-042%-2.5
1-12Ohio St. (39.3)B10H0-077%8.7
1-17Michigan (38.7)B10H0-074%7.7
1-21Minnesota (36.2)B10A0-062%3.8
1-24Penn St. (121.4)B10H0-092%16.9
1-28Rutgers (168.4)B10N0-092%17.3
1-31Illinois (93.1)B10A0-075%8.2
2-5Indiana (20.4)B10H0-064%4.4
2-9Nebraska (86.3)B10A0-076%8.5
2-12Northwestern (51.2)B10H0-078%9.1
2-16Michigan (38.7)B10A0-055%1.4
2-19Maryland (85.4)B10H0-089%14.9
2-23Ohio St. (39.3)B10A0-058%2.4
2-25Michigan St. (48.5)B10A0-061%3.3
3-2Iowa (195.6)B10H0-094%18.4
3-5Minnesota (36.2)B10H0-080%10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1028.6526.0975.7675.9714.7613.55
MichiganB100.003.8375.0068.570.001.42
IndianaB100.353.8087.5076.450.262.01
Ohio St.B100.003.7887.5071.090.001.59
MinnesotaB100.003.7887.5070.730.001.57
RutgersB100.003.7585.7148.180.00-0.14
MarylandB100.312.3087.5061.000.230.51
NorthwesternB100.002.2875.0067.630.000.80
Penn St.B100.002.2766.6747.710.00-0.10
Michigan St.B100.002.2755.5659.250.000.42
NebraskaB100.002.2757.1445.640.00-0.20
IowaB100.002.2237.5038.79-0.00-0.50
IllinoisB100.002.2262.5051.600.000.07
PurdueB100.002.2275.0075.900.001.15
GeorgetownBE5.561.7762.5049.491.39-0.02
MarquetteBE0.001.7775.0067.100.000.61
CreightonBE5.561.75100.0075.835.560.90
North CarolinaACC5.561.7285.7181.363.971.08
Central ArkansasSlnd5.561.6614.2931.40-3.97-0.62
SyracuseACC5.561.6683.3368.923.700.63
Chicago St.WAC5.561.6425.0023.63-2.78-0.86
TennesseeSEC5.561.6450.0042.540.00-0.24
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.610.0023.44-0.00-0.86
Green BayHorz0.001.6142.8653.68-0.000.12
Idaho St.BSky0.001.6112.5030.16-0.00-0.64
OklahomaB125.561.6183.3350.023.700.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.561.6116.6732.36-3.70-0.57
St. John'sBE0.000.2937.5037.03-0.00-0.08
DePaulBE0.000.2766.6735.430.00-0.08
ButlerBE0.350.26100.0074.440.350.13
Seton HallBE0.000.2471.4354.560.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.2175.0056.590.000.03
HowardMEAC0.310.1916.6744.34-0.21-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.19100.0084.840.000.13
PittsburghACC0.000.1875.0049.180.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1687.5059.310.000.03
Notre DameACC0.560.16100.0077.380.560.09
XavierBE0.000.1687.5070.890.000.07
Oklahoma St.B121.000.1671.4354.310.430.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0025.23-0.00-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.1687.5075.590.000.08
VirginiaACC0.000.1687.5078.510.000.09
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1414.2938.26-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1412.5037.99-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.1342.8638.63-0.05-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1342.8638.17-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.1387.5075.860.000.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1350.0046.240.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.13100.0086.690.000.10
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.990.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.1337.5051.64-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.350.1375.0051.040.170.00
South CarolinaSEC0.400.13100.0078.850.400.08
TexasB120.000.1357.1438.680.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1387.5065.250.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.560.1357.1436.010.08-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0039.53-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.1388.8978.400.000.07
UMKCWAC0.350.1162.5052.330.090.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1171.4356.250.000.01
OaklandHorz0.560.1185.7177.150.400.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.82-0.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1125.0030.23-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.400.1171.4354.860.170.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1150.0041.990.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.1150.0049.780.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1116.6739.78-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1114.2943.58-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.800.000.07
Miami FLACC0.000.1175.0066.100.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.310.1075.0066.370.150.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1033.3339.61-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1011.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6757.300.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0942.8658.58-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0922.2221.23-0.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.560.0942.8645.44-0.08-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.990.000.04
DetroitHorz0.000.080.0021.22-0.00-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.400.0816.6739.20-0.26-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0857.1453.990.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0842.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.47-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0857.1471.520.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0842.8650.12-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0828.5731.44-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0871.4355.160.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0833.3354.32-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0862.5051.790.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0887.5062.040.000.02
LamarSlnd0.400.0850.0041.540.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.350.0875.0048.500.17-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0828.5738.15-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0885.7183.660.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.450.000.01
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.070.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0022.31-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.400.0840.0054.54-0.080.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0862.5040.460.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0885.7166.190.000.03
ChattanoogaSC1.250.0871.4373.040.540.04
Northern IowaMVC0.400.0833.3352.84-0.130.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.400.0820.0041.92-0.24-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0828.5723.12-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.790.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0840.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0875.0054.490.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.060.0017.13-0.31-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.400.060.0027.12-0.40-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.560.060.0016.68-0.56-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.01-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5066.900.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0550.0071.020.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.06-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0533.3332.92-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0550.0040.600.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.240.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0550.0041.310.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.400.0566.6740.030.13-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0522.2226.33-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0048.030.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3330.44-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.680.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0550.0066.300.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0562.5046.900.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0055.500.000.01
OregonP120.860.0575.0072.250.430.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0525.0027.53-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.740.0512.5023.93-0.56-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0575.0086.710.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0533.3336.74-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.400.0512.5029.71-0.30-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0516.6730.34-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0571.4370.210.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0533.3356.24-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0533.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.350.0566.6761.330.120.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0571.4355.820.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0571.4363.930.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0017.61-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.400.0575.0070.620.200.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0516.6738.58-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0525.0037.38-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.34-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.56-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.860.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.130.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0525.0055.33-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0522.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0557.1467.260.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.390.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.590.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8646.14-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.350.0371.4368.980.150.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.560.0316.6729.80-0.37-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.350.0333.3352.21-0.120.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.920.000.02
HoustonAmer0.400.0385.7178.280.280.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.350.0342.8645.94-0.05-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.400.0325.0022.93-0.20-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.06-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.400.03100.0089.330.400.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
UTSACUSA0.400.0325.0029.54-0.20-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
Washington St.P120.350.0342.8628.98-0.05-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
ArmyPat0.350.0342.8650.09-0.050.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
ElonCAA0.310.0371.4359.470.130.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
HawaiiBW0.350.0350.0050.450.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.400.0337.5047.37-0.10-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.350.030.0038.27-0.35-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.400.0312.5034.79-0.30-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.350.0328.5734.28-0.15-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4356.260.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.310.0344.4441.30-0.03-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.350.0316.6736.03-0.23-0.01