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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:32.0
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:12
Current SOS:12
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1132.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)SlndH87-47W100%0.0
11-14Florida (7.0)SECA74-56L0%0.0
11-18Cornell (248.0)IvyH73-40W100%0.0
11-20Presbyterian (340.0)BSthH88-43W100%0.0
11-23Creighton (25.0)MVCN84-74L0%0.0
11-24Arkansas (89.0)SECN77-70W100%0.0
11-28Virginia (76.0)ACCH54-60L0%0.0
12-2California (54.0)P12H81-56W100%0.0
12-4Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumH86-40W100%0.0
12-8Marquette (13.0)BEA60-50L0%0.0
12-12Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH65-54W100%0.0
12-22Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)HorzH74-53W100%0.0
12-29Samford (291.0)SCH87-51W100%0.0
1-3Penn St. (186.0)B10H60-51W100%0.0
1-6Nebraska (104.0)B10A41-47W100%0.0
1-12Illinois (40.0)B10H74-51W100%0.0
1-15Indiana (8.0)B10A59-64W100%0.0
1-19Iowa (79.0)B10A70-66L0%0.0
1-22Michigan St. (9.0)B10H47-49L0%0.0
1-26Minnesota (34.0)B10H45-44W100%0.0
1-29Ohio St. (10.0)B10A58-49L0%0.0
2-3Illinois (40.0)B10A68-74W100%0.0
2-6Iowa (79.0)B10H74-70W100%0.0
2-9Michigan (20.0)B10H65-62W100%0.0
2-14Minnesota (34.0)B10A58-53L0%0.0
2-17Ohio St. (10.0)B10H71-49W100%0.0
2-20Northwestern (168.0)B10A41-69W100%0.0
2-26Nebraska (104.0)B10H77-46W100%0.0
3-3Purdue (136.0)B10H56-69L0%0.0
3-7Michigan St. (9.0)B10A58-43L0%0.0
3-10Penn St. (186.0)B10A60-63W100%0.0
3-15Michigan (20.0)B10N68-59W100%0.0
3-16Indiana (8.0)B10N56-68W100%0.0
3-17Ohio St. (10.0)B10N50-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.2826.2865.9765.978.408.40
Ohio St.B105.165.1680.0080.003.103.10
NebraskaB103.813.8148.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Michigan St.B103.753.7573.3373.331.751.75
MichiganB103.743.7483.3383.332.492.49
IndianaB103.743.7487.1087.102.772.77
IllinoisB103.713.7167.7467.741.321.32
IowaB103.673.6764.5264.521.071.07
MinnesotaB103.663.6663.3363.330.980.98
Penn St.B103.643.6434.4834.48-1.13-1.13
NorthwesternB102.292.2941.9441.94-0.37-0.37
PurdueB102.262.2645.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
FloridaSEC1.571.5778.1278.120.880.88
CreightonMVC1.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
ArkansasSEC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
MarquetteBE1.541.5473.3373.330.720.72
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz1.541.5420.6920.69-0.90-0.90
PresbyterianBSth1.521.5217.8617.86-0.98-0.98
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.521.5239.2939.29-0.32-0.32
Nebraska OmahaSum1.521.5235.7135.71-0.43-0.43
CornellIvy1.501.5041.3841.38-0.26-0.26
VirginiaACC1.491.4964.5264.520.430.43
CaliforniaP121.491.4966.6766.670.500.50
SamfordSC1.471.4733.3333.33-0.49-0.49
Southern CaliforniaP120.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
DukeACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
WinthropBSth0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
ButlerA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
IUPUISum0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
South DakotaSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
NC AshevilleBSth0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
LamarSlnd0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
OaklandSum0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.090.0984.3884.380.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Arizona St.P120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
ColgatePat0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0980.6580.650.060.06
OregonP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0885.1985.190.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
BrownIvy0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AmericanPat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameBE0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0757.6957.690.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MemphisCUSA0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
ToledoMAC0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0493.7593.750.040.04
HawaiiBW0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0414.2914.29-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.040.0455.8855.880.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Boston UniversityAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
PacificBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianB120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
XavierA100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00