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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:6.2
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:180
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:25-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-01.20.61%
28-11.63.58%
27-22.29.96%
26-33.118.16%
25-44.322.57%
24-56.319.77%
23-69.113.59%
22-712.86.96%
21-817.63.40%
20-925.11.04%
19-1032.80.27%
18-1142.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Kentucky (256.4)ASunH62-31W100%0.0
11-16Chattanooga (254.5)SCH89-45W100%0.0
11-19Green Bay (105.3)HorzH84-60W100%0.0
11-22Boise St. (78.3)MWCH78-54W100%0.0
11-26UAB (191.5)CUSAN0-096%21.1
12-3Duke (2.5)ACCH0-054%1.1
12-6Marquette (171.2)BEA0-089%14.4
12-10Milwaukee (267.7)HorzA0-096%20.4
12-13Nicholls St. (281.8)SlndH0-0100%32.6
12-22California (45.1)P12A0-066%4.9
12-28Buffalo (78.0)MACH0-096%20.9
12-31Penn St. (122.0)B10H0-095%19.6
1-4Northwestern (169.8)B10A0-092%16.5
1-7Purdue (64.5)B10H0-088%14.4
1-11Rutgers (170.5)B10A0-090%15.6
1-15Nebraska (84.0)B10H0-091%16.0
1-20Iowa (38.6)B10H0-081%10.5
1-24Michigan (46.1)B10A0-067%5.2
1-31Iowa (38.6)B10A0-061%3.3
2-3Indiana (67.9)B10H0-089%14.8
2-7Northwestern (169.8)B10H0-098%23.7
2-10Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-077%8.8
2-15Illinois (42.0)B10H0-084%11.9
2-18Penn St. (122.0)B10A0-085%12.4
2-21Minnesota (62.9)B10H0-087%13.7
2-24Maryland (57.7)B10A0-071%6.6
3-1Michigan St. (30.7)B10H0-079%9.6
3-5Minnesota (62.9)B10A0-071%6.5
3-8Ohio St. (38.8)B10A0-062%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1036.9826.16100.0085.2136.9818.42
IowaB100.004.1250.0068.090.001.49
MinnesotaB100.004.1266.6764.330.001.18
NebraskaB102.084.1166.6755.100.690.42
NorthwesternB100.004.09100.0044.740.00-0.43
Penn St.B100.004.0675.0049.820.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.002.45100.0072.450.001.10
IllinoisB100.002.43100.0068.860.000.92
MarylandB100.002.42100.0065.720.000.76
MichiganB100.002.42100.0065.530.000.75
Michigan St.B100.002.4266.6773.390.001.13
RutgersB100.002.3950.0038.520.00-0.55
PurdueB100.002.39100.0062.300.000.59
IndianaB100.002.36100.0063.740.000.65
Northern KentuckyASun12.501.8750.0042.560.00-0.28
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.790.0034.29-0.00-0.56
Green BayHorz12.501.790.0070.31-12.500.73
ChattanoogaSC12.501.790.0048.34-12.50-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.750.0036.24-0.00-0.48
UABCUSA0.001.750.0044.63-0.00-0.19
DukeACC0.001.75100.0087.460.001.31
MarquetteBE0.001.7533.3342.00-0.00-0.28
Boise St.MWC12.501.72100.0065.3812.500.53
BuffaloMAC0.001.7266.6762.560.000.43
CaliforniaP120.001.7275.0071.020.000.72
North FloridaASun0.000.210.0047.13-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.190.0032.48-0.00-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1925.0035.65-0.00-0.06
ButlerBE2.080.18100.0061.852.080.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.17100.0073.290.000.08
SyracuseACC0.000.1775.0068.160.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1725.0035.61-0.00-0.05
DetroitHorz0.000.1733.3354.50-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1666.6758.650.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1520.0026.89-0.00-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.1550.0041.630.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.1533.3325.18-0.00-0.07
St. John'sBE0.000.15100.0052.540.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0078.630.000.08
Miami OHMAC0.000.1466.6734.100.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1433.3346.93-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1466.6754.020.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.130.0019.92-0.00-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.13100.0052.260.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1325.0059.16-0.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0033.700.00-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0055.850.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.120.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.12100.0053.080.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.12100.0056.330.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0074.620.000.06
UMBCAE0.000.120.0036.19-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.1166.6763.730.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0046.020.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0054.710.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0033.75-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1075.0071.100.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.09100.0037.850.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0950.0047.120.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.090.0042.80-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.09100.0051.050.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0950.0045.600.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0966.6746.620.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0025.73-0.00-0.04
MontanaBSky1.560.090.0048.00-1.56-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0925.0031.88-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0028.08-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0073.530.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0056.980.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0065.270.000.03
VMISC0.000.0933.3339.27-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.090.0044.01-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0933.3341.77-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.09100.0062.510.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0933.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0033.08-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0062.070.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0032.70-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0975.0075.140.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0049.250.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3364.19-0.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0925.0035.71-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.030.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6751.200.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0040.40-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6768.230.000.03
OregonP120.000.09100.0071.440.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0069.320.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0925.0037.31-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0940.0040.58-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.090.0032.23-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.090.0035.11-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6776.510.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0018.48-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0966.6733.180.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0825.0051.56-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.08100.0045.990.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0031.92-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0875.0071.090.000.04
TexasB120.000.08100.0081.740.000.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0057.63-0.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0044.91-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0053.00-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0034.07-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0028.76-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.07100.0045.790.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.860.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.03-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.810.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.890.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.400.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.21-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.670.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0080.630.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.53-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0053.210.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0057.480.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.98-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.080.060.0024.17-2.08-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0033.68-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0041.91-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.72-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0633.3346.76-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0068.880.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.850.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0047.840.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.22-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0035.64-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6758.230.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0056.270.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.720.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
USCP120.000.0650.0027.780.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.540.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0633.3322.74-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0044.810.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0072.420.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.58-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0025.43-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0366.6767.990.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.030.0045.18-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.98-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.060.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3336.99-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.580.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC1.560.0333.3327.10-0.52-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0375.0060.550.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.830.000.01
San DiegoWCC1.560.0366.6748.330.52-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC2.080.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3345.63-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6768.980.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.59-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0044.850.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.36-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0034.71-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.650.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0035.36-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0038.370.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3357.45-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.97-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.07-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0072.02-0.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.32-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.33-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.24-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0045.12-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0060.360.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.100.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.720.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0325.0031.12-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.540.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0049.460.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0053.100.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.700.000.01