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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:56.8
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:16
Current Record:15-9
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-919.00.02%
21-1025.40.31%
20-1131.53.53%
19-1241.316.23%
18-1353.035.66%
17-1464.732.72%
16-1575.710.49%
15-1687.71.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Western Illinois (242.9)SumH67-69L0%0.0
11-15Siena (96.3)MAACH92-65W100%0.0
11-17North Dakota (219.7)BSkyH78-64W100%0.0
11-20Georgetown (70.4)BEN71-61L0%0.0
11-22VCU (46.5)A10N73-74W100%0.0
11-25Prairie View A&M (343.8)SWACH85-67W100%0.0
11-29Oklahoma (3.0)B12A65-48L0%0.0
12-2Syracuse (46.3)ACCA58-66W100%0.0
12-5Temple (73.6)AmerH76-60W100%0.0
12-9Milwaukee (155.2)HorzH67-68L0%0.0
12-12Marquette (117.6)BEH55-57L0%0.0
12-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndH64-49W100%0.0
12-23Green Bay (155.8)HorzH84-79W100%0.0
12-29Purdue (14.6)B10H55-61L0%0.0
1-2Rutgers (280.1)B10H79-57W100%0.0
1-5Indiana (31.1)B10A59-58L0%0.0
1-9Maryland (5.4)B10H60-63L0%0.0
1-12Northwestern (120.6)B10A70-65L0%0.0
1-17Michigan St. (18.7)B10H77-76W100%0.0
1-21Penn St. (131.2)B10A60-66W100%0.0
1-26Indiana (31.1)B10H82-79W100%0.0
1-31Illinois (157.1)B10A55-63W100%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (90.7)B10H79-68W100%0.0
2-10Nebraska (149.5)B10H72-61W100%0.0
2-13Maryland (5.4)B10A0-018%-9.9
2-18Michigan St. (18.7)B10A0-012%-13.0
2-21Illinois (157.1)B10H0-083%10.4
2-24Iowa (8.5)B10A0-015%-11.2
2-28Michigan (47.4)B10H0-051%0.2
3-2Minnesota (243.6)B10A0-073%6.7
3-6Purdue (14.6)B10A0-015%-11.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.1426.1054.6352.802.421.46
MarylandB102.513.8086.9683.161.852.52
PurdueB102.383.7879.1776.891.392.03
IllinoisB102.423.7847.8346.52-0.11-0.26
IndianaB104.423.7882.6177.462.892.08
Michigan St.B102.383.7583.3384.131.592.56
IowaB100.612.3379.1778.680.351.34
MinnesotaB100.592.3025.0027.27-0.30-1.04
Ohio St.B102.552.2762.5057.420.640.34
NebraskaB102.522.2754.1752.460.210.11
MichiganB100.432.2570.8367.350.180.78
RutgersB102.462.2422.7321.04-1.34-1.30
NorthwesternB102.462.2262.5060.830.620.48
Penn St.B102.382.2252.1748.320.10-0.07
GeorgetownBE2.211.7454.1751.290.180.04
MilwaukeeHorz2.131.7059.0961.130.390.38
MarquetteBE2.121.6962.5056.490.530.22
Green BayHorz2.131.6759.0959.750.390.33
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.171.669.5217.72-1.76-1.07
TempleAmer2.081.6468.1864.510.760.48
VCUA102.131.6473.9173.401.020.77
Western IllinoisSum2.081.6427.7829.08-0.93-0.69
SyracuseACC2.121.6470.8366.210.890.53
North DakotaBSky2.081.6147.3750.07-0.110.00
OklahomaB122.081.6186.3682.021.521.03
SienaMAAC2.081.6168.0067.080.750.55
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.081.6180.0075.091.250.81
CreightonBE0.350.2764.0062.070.100.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.2230.4332.24-0.07-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.260.2170.8370.130.110.09
St. John'sBE0.340.2125.0023.43-0.17-0.11
ProvidenceBE0.210.2172.0069.130.090.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.209.5210.67-0.15-0.15
Chicago St.WAC0.230.194.357.71-0.21-0.16
Notre DameACC0.210.1870.8367.910.090.07
VillanovaBE0.170.1887.5086.850.130.14
ButlerBE0.170.1870.8368.990.070.07
South DakotaSum0.140.1744.0043.56-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1621.7422.78-0.08-0.09
OaklandHorz0.180.1665.3865.500.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.170.1683.3378.390.110.09
DePaulBE0.210.1633.3334.02-0.07-0.05
DukeACC0.250.1675.0071.810.130.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1560.8759.830.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.1539.1341.06-0.05-0.03
IUPUISum0.190.1538.4638.50-0.04-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.1431.8235.12-0.07-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1455.5652.480.020.01
Iowa St.B120.130.1370.8367.960.060.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1324.0025.68-0.07-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1329.1733.75-0.05-0.04
RadfordBSth0.220.1352.1754.090.010.01
Seton HallBE0.170.1370.8368.090.070.05
XavierBE0.120.1387.5081.840.090.08
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1329.1726.68-0.05-0.06
IPFWSum0.140.1270.8368.650.060.04
DetroitHorz0.140.1145.4543.88-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1182.6183.030.060.07
Wright St.Horz0.180.1154.1753.810.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1140.0042.85-0.04-0.02
TexasB120.090.1166.6762.200.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1122.2231.13-0.10-0.04
MemphisAmer0.130.1158.3359.310.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1140.0040.34-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.130.1124.0024.92-0.07-0.05
KansasB120.090.1182.6179.210.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1120.0022.24-0.08-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.090.1156.0055.750.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.1138.4641.36-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1172.0071.570.080.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1115.0018.12-0.09-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.090.1066.6763.330.030.03
George WashingtonA100.130.1075.0071.980.070.05
Wake ForestACC0.170.1041.6739.90-0.03-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1080.7781.890.100.07
FloridaSEC0.080.1066.6766.320.030.03
PittsburghACC0.080.1072.7367.600.040.04
DenverSum0.150.1052.0049.300.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0958.3358.580.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0973.9174.640.030.05
Montana St.BSky0.090.0943.4844.81-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.140.0858.3356.290.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0850.0049.890.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0835.0034.87-0.01-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0826.3232.42-0.04-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.0823.8129.52-0.07-0.03
ElonCAA0.090.0850.0050.080.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0816.6719.49-0.09-0.05
BaylorB120.090.0873.9168.450.040.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0870.8367.980.040.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0845.8342.30-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.090.0845.8339.36-0.01-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0860.8755.310.010.01
DuquesneA100.130.0860.8756.270.030.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.0854.1751.980.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0852.1753.440.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0858.3358.410.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.089.0912.25-0.07-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0850.0054.220.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0842.3146.12-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0845.4554.18-0.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0837.5042.32-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0836.3638.95-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.130.0852.1755.080.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.120.0842.3144.49-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0840.0043.21-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0854.1754.100.010.01
LehighPat0.080.0839.1342.83-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0879.1776.000.020.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0833.3330.27-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0862.5064.110.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0858.3363.160.010.02
St. BonaventureA100.130.0872.7370.390.060.03
VermontAE0.080.0852.0054.840.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0654.5555.550.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0656.5255.330.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0647.6248.05-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0660.0062.700.010.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0627.2726.46-0.02-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.100.0666.6769.760.030.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.710.020.03
Texas St.SB0.100.0640.0038.87-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0514.2924.87-0.07-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0575.0075.350.050.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0536.8442.87-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0528.5733.29-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0541.6739.50-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0552.1753.740.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0556.0054.080.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0550.0051.150.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0573.6875.880.020.03
SMUAmer0.050.0586.9682.930.030.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.72-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.9065.340.010.02
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0552.1751.840.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0536.0034.84-0.01-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0566.6764.730.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0550.0044.640.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0528.5732.73-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0579.1778.100.030.03
DaytonA100.000.0587.5083.730.000.04
La SalleA100.090.0519.0520.30-0.05-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0545.4549.06-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0572.7370.510.040.02
LSUSEC0.090.0562.5059.070.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0550.0048.970.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0583.3381.270.060.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0524.0026.42-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.040.0560.8760.430.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0552.1754.970.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0583.3383.710.030.04
CornellIvy0.080.0540.0039.00-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.040.0561.9058.180.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0526.0927.89-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.040.0533.3333.62-0.01-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.8760.730.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0525.0026.38-0.04-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0533.3335.19-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0545.4543.17-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0521.7424.25-0.05-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0582.6177.600.050.03
New MexicoMWC0.040.0558.3360.710.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0523.0823.85-0.04-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0529.1733.08-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0548.0048.59-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0534.7834.94-0.01-0.02
RichmondA100.040.0556.5255.820.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0534.7832.39-0.01-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0543.4844.24-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.040.0583.3379.820.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0558.3359.970.010.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0583.3378.460.060.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0552.0048.910.00-0.00
VMISC0.090.0519.0519.67-0.05-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0531.8234.54-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.040.0575.0075.100.020.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.860.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.880.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.039.5212.09-0.04-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.450.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0330.0035.92-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0340.0045.19-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0314.2914.92-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0328.5734.10-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0356.0054.430.010.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.17-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.60-0.03-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0323.8125.99-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0333.3332.04-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0347.6244.07-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.070.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0312.5013.26-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0314.2920.63-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0325.0024.91-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0320.8323.28-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0343.4845.20-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.450.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5037.41-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0336.8437.30-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0365.2264.330.000.01
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.530.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0334.7831.64-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0373.9176.700.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.040.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.770.020.01
AmericanPat0.040.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0356.0053.630.010.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0368.0066.640.010.01
BrownIvy0.040.0330.0030.54-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0354.1754.420.000.00
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.040.0370.8365.570.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.020.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.040.0352.3850.690.000.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.710.010.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.620.020.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.54-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.17-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0343.4842.42-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.040.0366.6767.110.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0368.1867.730.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0360.0057.680.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0323.8125.48-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0333.3336.30-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.040.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0323.8122.85-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0352.1754.140.000.00
StetsonASun0.040.0322.7327.37-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.120.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0362.5063.450.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0377.2773.930.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0368.1871.340.020.01