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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:36.5
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:26
Current SOS:153
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-33.90.10%
26-45.80.26%
25-57.11.35%
24-610.83.89%
23-715.58.15%
22-820.212.48%
21-926.717.48%
20-1034.217.80%
19-1142.815.61%
18-1253.211.34%
17-1364.86.69%
16-1481.03.06%
15-1596.51.19%
14-16113.20.37%
13-17133.70.18%
12-18149.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACH85-50W100%0.0
11-12Yale (127.9)IvyH89-61W100%0.0
11-16Xavier (9.4)BEH70-80L0%0.0
11-20Baylor (41.9)B12N0-048%-0.5
11-24Milwaukee (165.5)HorzH0-093%18.0
11-27Virginia (15.8)ACCA0-031%-5.9
12-2Ohio St. (85.4)B10H0-077%8.7
12-4Penn St. (87.4)B10A0-062%3.7
12-6Temple (53.0)AmerA0-061%3.5
12-9Marquette (88.1)BEH0-076%8.6
12-13Western Kentucky (180.6)CUSAH0-095%19.7
12-23Green Bay (236.8)HorzH0-096%21.4
12-27Chicago St. (324.5)WACH0-0100%36.7
12-30UMass Lowell (285.2)AEH0-099%26.5
1-2Indiana (137.3)B10H0-085%12.5
1-5Rutgers (181.4)B10A0-078%9.2
1-9Nebraska (165.0)B10A0-077%8.9
1-16Purdue (9.2)B10A0-021%-9.6
1-19Illinois (84.8)B10H0-078%9.3
1-23Iowa (98.1)B10A0-059%2.8
1-26Michigan St. (23.7)B10A0-030%-6.4
1-29Nebraska (165.0)B10H0-089%14.9
2-1Northwestern (80.7)B10H0-076%8.3
2-4Maryland (25.7)B10A0-041%-2.7
2-8Illinois (84.8)B10A0-061%3.3
2-11Michigan (60.4)B10H0-070%6.2
2-15Purdue (9.2)B10H0-038%-3.6
2-19Minnesota (39.3)B10H0-061%3.4
2-22Northwestern (80.7)B10A0-058%2.3
2-25Michigan St. (23.7)B10H0-049%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1031.9426.1546.1563.99-2.467.32
IllinoisB100.003.96100.0061.280.000.89
PurdueB100.003.96100.0086.460.002.89
NorthwesternB100.003.9375.0056.650.000.52
Michigan St.B100.003.9350.0079.070.002.28
NebraskaB100.003.9266.6741.800.00-0.64
RutgersB100.002.41100.0047.730.00-0.11
MinnesotaB100.002.38100.0072.800.001.08
MarylandB100.002.38100.0072.200.001.06
Penn St.B100.002.35100.0061.180.000.53
MichiganB100.002.35100.0062.840.000.60
IndianaB100.002.3533.3342.130.00-0.37
IowaB100.002.32100.0058.880.000.41
Ohio St.B100.002.29100.0061.180.000.51
Chicago St.WAC0.001.840.007.950.00-1.55
MarquetteBE0.001.8150.0051.870.000.07
XavierBE16.671.75100.0078.2716.670.99
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.73100.0061.910.000.41
Green BayHorz0.001.720.0046.350.00-0.13
South Carolina St.MEAC18.751.700.0035.26-18.75-0.50
YaleIvy18.751.7033.3356.89-6.250.23
BaylorB120.001.69100.0061.440.000.39
TempleAmer0.001.67100.0057.240.000.24
UMass LowellAE0.001.6750.0044.260.00-0.19
VirginiaACC0.001.67100.0074.330.000.81
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.670.0046.520.00-0.12
DePaulBE0.000.2933.3331.290.00-0.11
CreightonBE2.080.26100.0067.462.080.09
OaklandHorz0.000.2066.6765.630.000.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2033.3333.580.00-0.07
ButlerBE0.000.2075.0052.360.000.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.170.0032.200.00-0.06
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0082.960.000.11
Stony BrookAE0.000.170.0047.400.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.17100.0054.590.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.170.0025.140.00-0.09
Seton HallBE0.000.17100.0067.950.000.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.150.0041.210.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.15100.0050.450.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.150.0029.290.00-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.140.0027.250.00-0.07
BrownIvy0.000.14100.0039.270.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.14100.0073.730.000.07
Georgia TechACC0.000.140.0057.520.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.14100.0061.780.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1466.6749.100.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0066.990.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1475.0064.570.000.04
UMBCAE0.000.120.0052.900.000.01
VermontAE0.000.1266.6774.120.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3341.010.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1250.0048.410.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.12100.0070.960.000.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.12100.0058.070.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.12100.0075.130.000.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1250.0069.320.000.04
Boston CollegeACC2.080.1175.0045.291.04-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1150.0038.730.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.11100.0082.910.000.08
OklahomaB120.000.11100.0060.070.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.11100.0059.760.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.110.0029.880.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.11100.0083.580.000.08
HamptonMEAC0.000.110.0048.070.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0022.840.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0044.630.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0975.0071.560.000.04
AlbanyAE2.080.09100.0072.512.080.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0975.0072.950.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0925.0038.080.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0933.3326.430.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3343.810.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3334.680.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.090.0038.210.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0036.640.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.090.0037.310.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0933.3329.980.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0933.3333.620.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0933.3338.350.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0029.620.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.0975.0051.210.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0078.160.000.05
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0036.690.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0933.3349.350.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0933.3327.100.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.000.09100.0062.240.000.02
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.150.000.02
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0966.6771.200.000.04
Wichita St.Amer0.000.09100.0082.290.000.06
DrakeMVC0.000.0950.0035.740.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6757.890.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0082.350.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0933.3350.350.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0054.680.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0833.3354.200.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6745.880.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.080.0044.950.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0049.250.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0825.0035.000.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0035.330.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0625.0040.490.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.700.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0062.930.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0650.0051.070.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0028.770.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.060.0051.010.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0046.410.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0050.360.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.06100.0062.630.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UCLAP122.080.06100.0064.912.080.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.060.0030.230.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0074.500.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.0017.060.00-0.04
RiderMAAC2.780.0666.6755.210.930.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0064.720.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0023.260.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0375.0048.770.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.03100.0063.590.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0023.830.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.030.0061.460.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0333.3339.360.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.03100.0057.270.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.180.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0046.000.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.03100.0038.710.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3342.010.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0333.3357.840.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Morehead St.OVC2.780.0333.3336.61-0.93-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0051.840.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02