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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:21.8
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:17
Current Record:18-6
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:19.66%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-612.53.70%
24-716.223.78%
23-820.840.92%
22-926.724.58%
21-1033.86.11%
20-1143.10.84%
19-1255.00.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Kennesaw St. (317.6)ASunH85-31W100%0.0
11-16Colgate (296.0)PatH68-41W100%0.0
11-19Wofford (173.4)SCH69-33W100%0.0
11-22Missouri Kansas City (240.4)SumH77-31W100%0.0
11-25Bradley (248.0)MVCN43-66W100%0.0
11-26Brigham Young (44.9)WCCN56-73W100%0.0
11-30North Carolina (4.6)ACCA60-57L0%0.0
12-3Marquette (15.5)BEH54-61L0%0.0
12-7Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzH70-42W100%0.0
12-10Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)MWCH62-51W100%0.0
12-13Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzA54-60W100%0.0
12-15Savannah St. (214.3)MEACH66-33W100%0.0
12-23Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH79-45W100%0.0
12-27Nebraska (117.6)B10A40-64W100%0.0
12-31Iowa (139.5)B10H65-72L0%0.0
1-3Michigan St. (8.2)B10H60-63L0%0.0
1-8Michigan (25.3)B10A59-41L0%0.0
1-12Purdue (65.0)B10A62-67W100%0.0
1-15Nebraska (117.6)B10H50-45W100%0.0
1-18Northwestern (66.2)B10H77-57W100%0.0
1-22Illinois (39.4)B10A63-67W100%0.0
1-26Indiana (20.6)B10H57-50W100%0.0
1-31Penn St. (163.2)B10A46-52W100%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (3.4)B10H52-58L0%0.0
2-9Minnesota (68.5)B10A0-073%6.6
2-16Michigan St. (8.2)B10A0-039%-3.0
2-19Penn St. (163.2)B10H0-097%20.7
2-23Iowa (139.5)B10A0-084%11.0
2-25Ohio St. (3.4)B10A0-023%-7.9
2-28Minnesota (68.5)B10H0-089%13.3
3-4Illinois (39.4)B10H0-087%12.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.2126.2069.6471.1110.3011.06
Michigan St.B102.593.9775.0072.381.301.78
NebraskaB104.533.9657.8950.140.720.01
IllinoisB102.463.9276.1968.441.291.44
MinnesotaB100.463.9269.5764.210.181.11
Ohio St.B102.603.8986.3685.271.892.74
IowaB102.503.8952.1748.870.11-0.09
Penn St.B102.553.8643.4841.23-0.33-0.68
IndianaB102.642.4078.2678.311.491.36
NorthwesternB102.512.4065.0057.040.750.34
MichiganB102.492.3871.4365.661.070.74
PurdueB102.452.3568.1862.600.890.59
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz2.281.7559.0959.790.410.34
Missouri Kansas CitySum2.221.7236.3636.45-0.61-0.47
North CarolinaACC2.231.7286.3682.601.621.12
BradleyMVC2.221.7025.0025.69-1.11-0.82
Wisconsin Green BayHorz2.221.6936.8440.90-0.58-0.31
Nevada Las VegasMWC2.181.6986.3684.251.581.16
MarquetteBE2.181.6778.2675.181.230.84
WoffordSC2.171.6761.9059.990.520.33
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.181.6752.3860.160.100.34
Savannah St.MEAC2.131.6455.0059.930.210.33
Brigham YoungWCC2.081.6178.2678.721.180.93
ColgatePat2.081.6131.8230.55-0.76-0.63
Kennesaw St.ASun2.081.619.0912.08-1.70-1.22
ButlerHorz0.330.2050.0050.800.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.140.2041.6740.61-0.02-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.140.1919.0521.29-0.09-0.11
CreightonMVC0.280.1987.5085.410.210.13
DukeACC0.140.1886.3683.090.100.12
ValparaisoHorz0.240.1765.2263.610.070.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1750.0051.530.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1673.9175.490.070.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1631.8242.13-0.07-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.140.1681.8281.490.090.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1626.0928.60-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1461.9063.520.020.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1440.9138.38-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1417.3922.00-0.12-0.08
Southern CaliforniaP120.140.1325.0025.13-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1356.5254.220.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.090.1335.0039.29-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.130.1335.0035.31-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.140.1345.8346.68-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.1350.0042.830.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1340.9139.56-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1362.5061.500.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1281.8280.430.060.07
DetroitHorz0.100.1247.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1230.0030.06-0.04-0.05
South DakotaSum0.190.1126.3228.83-0.09-0.05
WyomingMWC0.140.1176.1970.730.070.05
Wake ForestACC0.190.1147.8343.66-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.1135.0040.78-0.04-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1116.6723.02-0.10-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1150.0048.900.00-0.00
LehighPat0.090.1173.9174.910.050.05
Texas ChristianMWC0.140.1157.1449.540.02-0.00
VirginiaACC0.100.1181.8276.800.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1127.2735.02-0.08-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.1173.9175.000.020.05
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1128.5734.20-0.04-0.03
LafayettePat0.090.1143.4842.95-0.01-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.1133.3337.25-0.01-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1134.7837.24-0.06-0.03
StetsonASun0.180.1131.8231.31-0.07-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1142.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.115.267.30-0.12-0.09
Virginia TechACC0.090.1156.5255.200.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.1142.8641.13-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.140.1173.9168.430.070.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.1119.0525.52-0.06-0.05
LipscombASun0.090.1143.4843.82-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.1154.5556.090.010.01
MississippiSEC0.130.1063.6456.710.040.01
Chicago St.GWC0.090.104.769.95-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.090.1036.8441.45-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.090.1052.1750.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1045.4544.02-0.02-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.1062.5062.060.020.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1095.8392.570.120.09
MarylandACC0.090.1059.0950.820.020.00
IUPUISum0.140.0834.7835.50-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.140.0869.5764.530.060.02
OaklandSum0.090.0848.0050.21-0.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0810.0014.93-0.12-0.06
St. Mary'sWCC0.130.0890.9187.740.110.06
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0852.6348.410.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.100.0859.0956.350.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0838.8943.93-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.0869.5765.150.060.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0843.4844.25-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0881.8281.030.060.05
Georgia TechACC0.140.0839.1342.12-0.03-0.01
NevadaWAC0.130.0880.9576.420.080.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0817.6527.10-0.06-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0817.3924.41-0.06-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.0845.4545.70-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0854.5554.300.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0880.9577.380.060.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0868.1869.680.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0872.7371.710.040.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0827.7829.87-0.04-0.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0882.6177.630.060.04
MissouriB120.090.0891.3087.180.080.06
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0854.1757.200.010.01
Notre DameBE0.130.0865.2262.650.040.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.090.0819.0524.61-0.06-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.130.0882.6180.420.080.05
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0830.4326.44-0.03-0.04
ClemsonACC0.040.0850.0048.360.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0865.0060.020.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0870.8364.420.040.02
South FloridaBE0.090.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.090.0665.2263.790.030.02
ArmyPat0.050.0640.9141.72-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0638.1042.78-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.090.0658.3359.980.020.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0676.1976.760.020.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0619.0522.37-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0640.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0640.9142.05-0.01-0.01
Longwoodind0.090.0630.0027.84-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0659.0957.760.020.01
NavyPat0.050.069.5213.19-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0680.7780.750.060.03
PepperdineWCC0.040.0631.8233.83-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0621.7421.70-0.02-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.0620.8320.60-0.06-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0633.3333.82-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0656.5253.770.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
Southern UtahSum0.090.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.069.5211.44-0.08-0.04
BaylorB120.090.0590.9183.850.080.04
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0517.3919.81-0.06-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0525.0037.58-0.05-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0518.1821.13-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0555.5658.010.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0550.0047.590.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0534.7838.77-0.03-0.01
High PointBSth0.090.0531.8232.75-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0518.1822.22-0.06-0.03
North DakotaGWC0.090.0533.3341.31-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0547.6247.18-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.090.0595.8392.010.080.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0540.9142.96-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0547.3742.16-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0530.0037.30-0.04-0.01
BelmontASun0.050.0569.5773.280.020.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0547.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.090.0550.0056.760.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0566.6760.800.020.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0552.3852.860.000.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.0515.0015.73-0.03-0.04
MercerASun0.050.0570.8371.640.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0585.7178.050.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.0046.13-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0559.0957.280.020.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0565.2263.740.030.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0566.6768.050.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0556.5253.100.010.00
BrownIvy0.040.0527.2723.80-0.02-0.03
CampbellBSth0.040.0556.0055.650.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.000.0569.5765.470.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0560.8760.960.000.01
HartfordAE0.040.0517.3920.97-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0578.2678.390.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0561.9067.230.010.02
Long IslandNEC0.040.0570.8371.050.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0034.15-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.040.058.7013.10-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.050.0550.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0562.5062.490.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0526.3229.71-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0534.7832.06-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0560.0059.060.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.000.0521.7424.58-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0545.4546.08-0.01-0.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0545.0044.15-0.00-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0360.0060.420.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.040.0368.4266.450.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0355.0060.330.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0019.96-0.00-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.38-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.590.010.00
UtahP120.040.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.040.0350.0052.930.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.040.0380.0076.840.030.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0375.0074.610.020.01
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.050.0369.5771.510.020.01
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.66-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.04-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.00
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
ConnecticutBE0.000.0368.1863.990.000.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0379.1778.100.020.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0334.7832.08-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
LouisvilleBE0.040.0378.2672.660.020.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.040.0313.6416.35-0.03-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.050.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
PittsburghBE0.040.0360.8758.160.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.040.0356.5250.270.010.00
RutgersBE0.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.060.020.01
TexasB120.050.0360.8761.370.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0369.5765.870.020.01
WashingtonP120.040.0369.5766.540.020.01
West VirginiaBE0.000.0365.2265.170.000.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.740.010.01