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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:6.0
Current RPI:6
Expected SOS:2
Current SOS:2
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:1-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:1
Expected OOC SOS:10



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-76.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8St. John's (67.0)BEN86-75W100%0.0
11-12Florida (1.0)SECH59-53W100%0.0
11-16Green Bay (58.0)HorzA66-69W100%0.0
11-19North Dakota (197.0)BSkyH103-85W100%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (194.0)MACH88-64W100%0.0
11-23Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH76-67W100%0.0
11-26Saint Louis (27.0)A10N63-57W100%0.0
11-27West Virginia (88.0)B12N63-70W100%0.0
12-4Virginia (8.0)ACCA38-48W100%0.0
12-7Marquette (92.0)BEH70-64W100%0.0
12-11Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH78-52W100%0.0
12-14Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH86-61W100%0.0
12-28Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH80-43W100%0.0
1-2Northwestern (123.0)B10A49-76W100%0.0
1-5Iowa (56.0)B10H75-71W100%0.0
1-8Illinois (70.0)B10H95-70W100%0.0
1-14Indiana (102.0)B10A75-72L0%0.0
1-18Michigan (11.0)B10H70-77L0%0.0
1-22Minnesota (50.0)B10A81-68L0%0.0
1-25Purdue (145.0)B10A58-72W100%0.0
1-29Northwestern (123.0)B10H56-65L0%0.0
2-1Ohio St. (24.0)B10H58-59L0%0.0
2-4Illinois (70.0)B10A63-75W100%0.0
2-9Michigan St. (18.0)B10H60-58W100%0.0
2-13Minnesota (50.0)B10H78-70W100%0.0
2-16Michigan (11.0)B10A62-75W100%0.0
2-22Iowa (56.0)B10A74-79W100%0.0
2-25Indiana (102.0)B10H69-58W100%0.0
3-2Penn St. (114.0)B10A66-71W100%0.0
3-5Purdue (145.0)B10H76-70W100%0.0
3-9Nebraska (48.0)B10A77-68L0%0.0
3-14Minnesota (50.0)B10N83-57W100%0.0
3-15Michigan St. (18.0)B10N75-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.2526.2577.1277.1214.2414.24
MinnesotaB105.205.2062.0762.071.261.26
MichiganB103.853.8577.4277.422.112.11
NorthwesternB103.833.8341.9441.94-0.62-0.62
Michigan St.B103.823.8278.1278.122.152.15
IowaB103.773.7765.5265.521.171.17
IllinoisB103.763.7661.2961.290.850.85
PurdueB103.733.7350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB103.733.7353.3353.330.250.25
Ohio St.B102.412.4172.7372.731.091.09
Penn St.B102.362.3648.3948.39-0.08-0.08
NebraskaB102.262.2660.0060.000.450.45
Green BayHorz1.611.6180.7780.770.990.99
MilwaukeeHorz1.601.6062.5062.500.400.40
Bowling GreenMAC1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
St. John'sBE1.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
MarquetteBE1.581.5854.8454.840.150.15
Saint LouisA101.571.5783.3383.331.041.04
Oral RobertsSlnd1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
West VirginiaB121.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
VirginiaACC1.541.5484.8584.851.081.08
North DakotaBSky1.541.5450.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
FloridaSEC1.521.5296.9796.971.421.42
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.521.5231.2531.25-0.57-0.57
Florida St.ACC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
UICHorz0.190.1913.7913.79-0.14-0.14
XavierBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
ButlerBE0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
DePaulBE0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
VillanovaBE0.140.1487.5087.500.110.11
Iowa St.B120.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
PennIvy0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0441.1841.18-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00