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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:130.2
Current RPI:131
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:54
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1147.80.05%
19-1258.80.17%
18-1370.51.49%
17-1484.25.92%
16-1599.914.12%
15-16117.423.04%
14-17136.326.18%
13-18154.918.48%
12-19172.48.17%
11-20188.42.07%
10-21201.00.30%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACH85-50W100%0.0
11-12Yale (203.6)IvyH89-61W100%0.0
11-16Xavier (6.2)BEH70-80L0%0.0
11-20Baylor (58.5)B12N65-70L0%0.0
11-21UCLA (63.0)P12N70-72L0%0.0
11-24Milwaukee (243.0)HorzH71-49W100%0.0
11-27Virginia (4.4)ACCA49-37L0%0.0
12-2Ohio St. (21.0)B10H58-83L0%0.0
12-4Penn St. (113.7)B10A63-64W100%0.0
12-6Temple (61.9)AmerA59-55L0%0.0
12-9Marquette (52.5)BEH63-82L0%0.0
12-13Western Kentucky (45.0)CUSAH81-80W100%0.0
12-23Green Bay (324.7)HorzH81-60W100%0.0
12-27Chicago St. (335.8)WACH82-70W100%0.0
12-30UMass Lowell (320.4)AEH82-53W100%0.0
1-2Indiana (115.9)B10H71-61W100%0.0
1-5Rutgers (185.2)B10A64-60L0%0.0
1-9Nebraska (100.4)B10A63-59L0%0.0
1-16Purdue (6.5)B10A78-50L0%0.0
1-19Illinois (159.6)B10H75-50W100%0.0
1-23Iowa (157.0)B10A0-046%-1.1
1-26Michigan St. (21.2)B10A0-09%-15.1
1-29Nebraska (100.4)B10H0-068%5.2
2-1Northwestern (126.0)B10H0-060%2.9
2-4Maryland (43.3)B10A0-026%-7.3
2-8Illinois (159.6)B10A0-047%-0.9
2-11Michigan (38.7)B10H0-043%-2.0
2-15Purdue (6.5)B10H0-017%-10.7
2-19Minnesota (98.6)B10H0-060%2.8
2-22Northwestern (126.0)B10A0-037%-3.5
2-25Michigan St. (21.2)B10H0-022%-8.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.3026.0942.5040.37-3.94-5.03
PurdueB102.823.8490.0088.162.262.93
IllinoisB102.563.8150.0045.530.00-0.34
Michigan St.B100.323.7885.0083.060.222.50
NebraskaB102.683.7865.0059.350.810.71
NorthwesternB100.493.7855.0050.320.050.02
RutgersB102.622.3055.5645.310.29-0.22
MichiganB100.372.2775.0070.730.190.94
MinnesotaB100.442.2763.6458.220.120.37
MarylandB100.242.2770.0065.000.100.68
Penn St.B102.632.2565.0057.630.790.34
IndianaB102.562.2561.1152.430.570.11
IowaB100.442.2247.6243.71-0.02-0.28
Ohio St.B102.572.1980.0075.731.541.13
Chicago St.WAC2.631.770.003.23-2.63-1.66
MarquetteBE2.681.7466.6759.170.890.32
XavierBE2.641.6985.0079.411.841.00
MilwaukeeHorz2.561.6747.3748.73-0.13-0.04
Green BayHorz2.561.6726.3228.98-1.21-0.70
South Carolina St.MEAC2.641.6729.4132.80-1.09-0.57
UCLAP122.571.6763.1660.730.680.36
Western KentuckyCUSA2.561.6672.2273.251.140.77
YaleIvy2.571.6443.7549.21-0.32-0.03
BaylorB122.561.6458.8254.580.450.15
TempleAmer2.501.6150.0050.070.000.00
UMass LowellAE2.501.6131.2531.81-0.94-0.59
VirginiaACC2.501.6194.1284.942.211.13
CreightonBE0.320.2975.0070.690.160.12
DePaulBE0.190.2742.1134.32-0.03-0.08
ButlerBE0.240.2166.6763.070.080.06
OaklandHorz0.190.1961.9065.160.040.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1920.0023.36-0.11-0.10
DetroitHorz0.190.1721.0525.98-0.11-0.08
IUPUIHorz0.250.1727.7829.84-0.11-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.070.1638.8946.68-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.210.1652.6343.120.01-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1627.7834.50-0.06-0.05
Seton HallBE0.260.1675.0067.890.130.06
VillanovaBE0.260.1694.7490.310.230.13
St. John'sBE0.120.1647.3742.18-0.01-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.190.1468.4269.240.070.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1421.0523.50-0.11-0.07
BrownIvy0.220.1450.0045.130.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.1441.1839.13-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.130.1363.1661.050.030.03
UCFAmer0.190.1368.4260.880.070.03
MarshallCUSA0.190.1368.4263.640.070.04
LouisvilleACC0.130.1377.7869.360.070.05
North CarolinaACC0.130.1380.0075.050.080.07
ProvidenceBE0.130.1370.0060.460.050.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1142.1145.97-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1166.6773.240.040.05
UMBCAE0.140.1158.8258.360.020.02
VermontAE0.210.1173.6877.120.100.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1170.0071.230.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1183.3384.230.090.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.119.5217.94-0.10-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.130.1120.0041.76-0.08-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1129.4133.94-0.08-0.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1161.1147.260.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1144.4445.98-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.1177.7867.900.000.04
Texas TechB120.070.1178.9571.810.040.05
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1178.9577.360.080.06
Boston CollegeACC0.200.1168.4255.060.070.01
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1189.4785.520.150.08
SouthernSWAC0.140.1127.7840.97-0.06-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1152.6347.390.00-0.01
DukeACC0.070.1189.4785.190.050.07
GeorgetownBE0.070.1168.4254.090.020.01
KansasB120.130.1184.2179.740.090.06
ValparaisoMVC0.060.1150.0051.360.000.00
ColoradoP120.120.1160.0053.730.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.1040.0043.34-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.150.0970.0068.050.060.03
HartfordAE0.140.0852.6346.880.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0833.3333.36-0.02-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0844.4442.74-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.190.0871.4374.650.080.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0822.2228.67-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.130.0866.6763.200.040.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0830.0033.49-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.190.0844.4446.10-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0829.4133.22-0.05-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0833.3333.80-0.04-0.03
PennIvy0.070.0864.7162.780.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0820.0032.26-0.04-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0837.5046.630.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0843.7554.09-0.010.01
TCUB120.140.0873.6865.590.070.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.0845.0049.27-0.02-0.00
MaristMAAC0.130.0821.0521.99-0.08-0.05
StetsonASun0.120.0833.3336.92-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.0868.4257.770.070.01
La SalleA100.070.0840.0042.72-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0878.9576.760.080.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0868.4261.270.030.02
TexasB120.070.0863.1657.620.020.01
VCUA100.140.0860.0059.690.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0844.4441.15-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.140.0884.2178.170.100.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.080.009.15-0.13-0.07
DrakeMVC0.060.0855.0049.070.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.0836.8432.79-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.130.0884.2173.210.090.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.0823.5332.62-0.07-0.03
StanfordP120.120.0855.0050.370.010.00
UABCUSA0.070.0861.1164.130.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0868.4257.780.030.01
ArizonaP120.060.0880.0078.980.040.05
George WashingtonA100.180.0845.0043.49-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0831.5835.150.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0844.4446.64-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0841.1839.65-0.01-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0837.5033.780.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0610.5314.860.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.070.0629.4138.15-0.03-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0610.0019.62-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0652.3848.520.01-0.00
NJITASun0.140.0638.8942.60-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.210.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.76-0.04-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.130.0629.4127.74-0.05-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0652.9460.270.000.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0657.8954.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.710.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0645.0045.020.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0666.6766.010.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0652.9452.230.010.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.0512.5025.47-0.11-0.03
BryantNEC0.140.059.5217.08-0.11-0.04
FIUCUSA0.060.0535.2935.57-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.0510.5327.31-0.11-0.02
LehighPat0.140.0538.8944.75-0.03-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.92-0.05-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.140.0527.7840.88-0.06-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0566.6768.700.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0547.0652.51-0.010.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0542.1132.48-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0573.6869.610.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.130.0566.6755.930.040.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0578.9572.990.040.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0573.6862.720.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0517.6517.23-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.070.0561.1153.160.010.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0572.2274.700.030.03
OhioMAC0.070.0547.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0568.4254.090.030.00
OregonP120.060.0565.0063.830.020.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0557.8950.810.010.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0544.4448.910.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.130.0570.0070.630.050.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0535.0026.14-0.02-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0541.1838.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0526.3231.52-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0563.1657.900.020.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0555.0053.290.010.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0573.6865.280.030.02
USCP120.000.0571.4368.300.000.02
UtahP120.060.0561.1158.950.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0510.5316.750.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.130.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0537.5037.680.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0576.4769.020.000.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0540.0030.87-0.01-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0521.0544.26-0.07-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0538.8944.14-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.055.8819.370.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0552.9459.360.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0529.4134.76-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0530.0032.53-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.120.0565.0065.370.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.920.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0535.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.160.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.57-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0372.2258.940.030.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.540.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.440.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0365.0057.870.020.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0320.0028.72-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.620.020.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0352.6351.090.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.500.020.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0363.1666.880.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0377.7871.650.030.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.620.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.710.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0342.8635.25-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0346.6758.78-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.12-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.050.01
BucknellPat0.000.0361.9068.010.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5058.700.000.00
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.440.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.98-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.550.000.01
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.06-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.700.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0341.1843.410.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.430.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0373.6867.950.030.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.420.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0345.0048.560.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.410.050.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.690.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.650.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.10-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.900.010.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0373.6872.360.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.037.6923.28-0.06-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0317.6523.890.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.640.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.110.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.060.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.990.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0316.6724.290.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0333.3337.22-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.200.000.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0377.7879.160.030.02
George MasonA100.060.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0380.9583.260.040.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.120.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.350.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0347.0641.45-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.140.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.70-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0357.1453.220.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.1663.180.020.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0361.1160.790.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.400.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0372.2272.970.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0368.4263.980.020.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0318.7518.40-0.04-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0311.1117.960.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0338.8935.350.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0364.7159.980.020.01