live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:68
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-935.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH79-47W100%0.0
11-15Creighton (26.0)BEA79-67L0%0.0
11-17Chicago St. (318.0)WACH69-51W100%0.0
11-21Tennessee (82.0)SECN74-62W100%0.0
11-22Georgetown (106.0)BEN57-73W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina (5.0)ACCN71-56L0%0.0
11-27Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH95-50W100%0.0
11-29Syracuse (84.0)ACCH77-60W100%0.0
12-3Oklahoma (168.0)B12H90-70W100%0.0
12-7Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH78-44W100%0.0
12-10Marquette (60.0)BEA84-93W100%0.0
12-14Green Bay (157.0)HorzH73-59W100%0.0
12-23Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH90-37W100%0.0
12-27Rutgers (177.0)B10H72-52W100%0.0
1-3Indiana (79.0)B10A68-75W100%0.0
1-8Purdue (19.0)B10A66-55L0%0.0
1-12Ohio St. (90.0)B10H89-66W100%0.0
1-17Michigan (25.0)B10H68-64W100%0.0
1-21Minnesota (20.0)B10A76-78W100%0.0
1-24Penn St. (101.0)B10H82-55W100%0.0
1-28Rutgers (177.0)B10A54-61W100%0.0
1-31Illinois (62.0)B10A43-57W100%0.0
2-5Indiana (79.0)B10H65-60W100%0.0
2-9Nebraska (107.0)B10A69-70W100%0.0
2-12Northwestern (50.0)B10H59-66L0%0.0
2-16Michigan (25.0)B10A64-58L0%0.0
2-19Maryland (36.0)B10H71-60W100%0.0
2-23Ohio St. (90.0)B10A83-73L0%0.0
2-26Michigan St. (51.0)B10A84-74L0%0.0
3-2Iowa (81.0)B10H57-59L0%0.0
3-5Minnesota (20.0)B10H66-49W100%0.0
3-10Indiana (79.0)B10N70-60W100%0.0
3-11Northwestern (50.0)B10N76-48W100%0.0
3-12Michigan (25.0)B10N56-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.2226.2273.2973.2912.2112.21
MichiganB105.105.1068.7568.751.911.91
IndianaB105.015.0160.0060.001.001.00
NorthwesternB103.653.6568.7568.751.371.37
RutgersB103.573.5746.6746.67-0.24-0.24
MinnesotaB103.573.5777.4277.421.961.96
Ohio St.B103.533.5353.3353.330.240.24
Michigan St.B102.192.1956.2556.250.270.27
Penn St.B102.172.1746.8846.88-0.14-0.14
MarylandB102.172.1776.6776.671.161.16
PurdueB102.162.1677.4277.421.181.18
NebraskaB102.162.1637.9337.93-0.52-0.52
IllinoisB102.162.1656.6756.670.290.29
IowaB102.132.1354.8454.840.210.21
MarquetteBE1.621.6263.3363.330.430.43
GeorgetownBE1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
CreightonBE1.591.5971.8871.880.690.69
North CarolinaACC1.581.5878.1278.120.890.89
Central ArkansasSlnd1.531.5325.8125.81-0.74-0.74
SyracuseACC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
Chicago St.WAC1.511.5110.7110.71-1.19-1.19
TennesseeSEC1.491.4950.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC1.471.4718.5218.52-0.93-0.93
Green BayHorz1.471.4757.1457.140.210.21
Idaho St.BSky1.471.4713.7913.79-1.06-1.06
OklahomaB121.471.4736.6736.67-0.39-0.39
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.471.4736.6736.67-0.39-0.39
St. John'sBE0.270.2742.4242.42-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.270.2774.1974.190.130.13
DePaulBE0.250.2528.1228.12-0.11-0.11
Seton HallBE0.230.2365.6265.620.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
HowardMEAC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
VillanovaBE0.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
PittsburghACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Notre DameACC0.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.140.1487.5087.500.100.10
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Miami FLACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
UCLAP120.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
NJITASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
BryantNEC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00