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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:43.0
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:17
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:99
Expected OOC SOS:37



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1243.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Western Illinois (262.0)SumH67-69L0%0.0
11-15Siena (104.0)MAACH92-65W100%0.0
11-17North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH78-64W100%0.0
11-20Georgetown (106.0)BEN71-61L0%0.0
11-22VCU (37.0)A10N73-74W100%0.0
11-25Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH85-67W100%0.0
11-29Oklahoma (6.0)B12A65-48L0%0.0
12-2Syracuse (72.0)ACCA58-66W100%0.0
12-5Temple (60.0)AmerH76-60W100%0.0
12-9Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH67-68L0%0.0
12-12Marquette (110.0)BEH55-57L0%0.0
12-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH64-49W100%0.0
12-23Green Bay (112.0)HorzH84-79W100%0.0
12-29Purdue (15.0)B10H55-61L0%0.0
1-2Rutgers (294.0)B10H79-57W100%0.0
1-5Indiana (24.0)B10A59-58L0%0.0
1-9Maryland (14.0)B10H60-63L0%0.0
1-12Northwestern (115.0)B10A70-65L0%0.0
1-17Michigan St. (12.0)B10H77-76W100%0.0
1-21Penn St. (125.0)B10A60-66W100%0.0
1-26Indiana (24.0)B10H82-79W100%0.0
1-31Illinois (149.0)B10A55-63W100%0.0
2-4Ohio St. (74.0)B10H79-68W100%0.0
2-10Nebraska (165.0)B10H72-61W100%0.0
2-13Maryland (14.0)B10A57-70W100%0.0
2-18Michigan St. (12.0)B10A69-57L0%0.0
2-21Illinois (149.0)B10H69-60W100%0.0
2-24Iowa (28.0)B10A59-67W100%0.0
2-28Michigan (56.0)B10H68-57W100%0.0
3-2Minnesota (257.0)B10A49-62W100%0.0
3-6Purdue (15.0)B10A91-80L0%0.0
3-10Nebraska (165.0)B10N58-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.0626.0658.9058.904.644.64
NebraskaB103.803.8046.8846.88-0.24-0.24
PurdueB103.793.7975.0075.001.901.90
MarylandB103.763.7676.6776.672.012.01
IllinoisB103.753.7546.8846.88-0.23-0.23
Michigan St.B103.753.7587.5087.502.812.81
IndianaB103.703.7080.0080.002.222.22
IowaB102.282.2870.0070.000.910.91
MichiganB102.282.2865.6265.620.710.71
MinnesotaB102.252.2526.6726.67-1.05-1.05
Ohio St.B102.252.2562.5062.500.560.56
RutgersB102.222.2220.0020.00-1.33-1.33
NorthwesternB102.182.1861.2961.290.490.49
Penn St.B102.182.1851.6151.610.070.07
GeorgetownBE1.681.6843.7543.75-0.21-0.21
MilwaukeeHorz1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
Green BayHorz1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
MarquetteBE1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.631.6323.3323.33-0.87-0.87
TempleAmer1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
VCUA101.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
Western IllinoisSum1.591.5926.0926.09-0.76-0.76
SyracuseACC1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
North DakotaBSky1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB121.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
SienaMAAC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.561.5679.3179.310.920.92
CreightonBE0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
St. John'sBE0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
VillanovaBE0.210.2185.2985.290.150.15
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.190.1969.7069.700.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Chicago St.WAC0.180.183.453.45-0.16-0.16
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Notre DameACC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
DePaulBE0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
ButlerBE0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
South DakotaSum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.150.1582.3582.350.090.09
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
OaklandHorz0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
DukeACC0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1424.2424.24-0.07-0.07
XavierBE0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.120.1256.0056.000.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
DenverSum0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
VermontAE0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01