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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:5.3
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:38
Current Record:10-1
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:8
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-12.54.90%
29-23.117.51%
28-34.228.27%
27-45.526.15%
26-57.614.53%
25-610.16.17%
24-712.81.97%
23-817.10.39%
22-920.10.09%
21-1026.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Kentucky (219.7)ASunH62-31W100%0.0
11-16Chattanooga (214.2)SCH89-45W100%0.0
11-19Green Bay (52.1)HorzH84-60W100%0.0
11-22Boise St. (60.0)MWCH78-54W100%0.0
11-26UAB (230.3)CUSAN43-72W100%0.0
11-27Georgetown (46.6)BEN65-68W100%0.0
11-28Oklahoma (18.5)B12N69-56W100%0.0
12-3Duke (4.5)ACCH70-80L0%0.0
12-6Marquette (92.0)BEA38-49W100%0.0
12-10Milwaukee (258.7)HorzA54-93W100%0.0
12-13Nicholls St. (332.5)SlndH86-43W100%0.0
12-22California (48.4)P12A0-081%10.3
12-28Buffalo (42.9)MACH0-096%20.1
12-31Penn St. (103.3)B10H0-098%25.2
1-4Northwestern (162.0)B10A0-094%18.0
1-7Purdue (59.1)B10H0-091%15.6
1-11Rutgers (159.4)B10A0-097%21.2
1-15Nebraska (100.9)B10H0-098%23.2
1-20Iowa (50.0)B10H0-091%15.8
1-24Michigan (137.8)B10A0-091%15.5
1-31Iowa (50.0)B10A0-073%7.0
2-3Indiana (78.9)B10H0-095%19.4
2-7Northwestern (162.0)B10H0-099%26.7
2-10Nebraska (100.9)B10A0-089%14.5
2-15Illinois (53.3)B10H0-092%16.2
2-18Penn St. (103.3)B10A0-092%16.5
2-21Minnesota (45.9)B10H0-091%15.5
2-24Maryland (49.5)B10A0-078%9.1
3-1Michigan St. (26.6)B10H0-084%11.8
3-5Minnesota (45.9)B10A0-072%6.8
3-8Ohio St. (11.1)B10A0-045%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1027.8726.1186.2788.1620.2219.93
IowaB100.003.8472.7365.480.001.19
MinnesotaB100.003.8480.0070.000.001.54
NebraskaB100.253.8366.6747.190.08-0.22
NorthwesternB100.003.8160.0042.900.00-0.54
Penn St.B100.003.7890.9156.940.000.52
Michigan St.B100.452.2872.7375.100.211.14
Ohio St.B100.232.2890.0085.430.181.61
IllinoisB100.002.2572.7367.010.000.77
MarylandB100.002.2590.9168.890.000.85
MichiganB100.382.2555.5643.640.04-0.29
IndianaB100.002.2280.0059.090.000.40
RutgersB100.002.2260.0035.970.00-0.62
PurdueB100.002.2272.7365.590.000.69
Northern KentuckyASun4.771.7537.5044.66-1.19-0.19
MarquetteBE4.551.7266.6751.301.520.04
GeorgetownBE4.551.6975.0061.722.270.40
MilwaukeeHorz4.551.6737.5035.89-1.14-0.47
Green BayHorz4.551.6785.7180.163.251.01
ChattanoogaSC4.801.6744.4451.55-0.530.05
Nicholls St.Slnd4.551.640.0019.08-4.55-1.01
UABCUSA4.551.6433.3338.22-1.52-0.39
DukeACC4.551.64100.0087.144.551.22
Boise St.MWC4.551.6185.7171.733.250.70
BuffaloMAC0.001.6177.7872.780.000.73
CaliforniaP120.001.6190.9170.340.000.66
OklahomaB124.551.6187.5069.643.410.63
ButlerBE0.730.2780.0072.370.440.12
CreightonBE0.250.1975.0051.760.130.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1950.0057.210.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1988.8964.830.000.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1718.1821.03-0.00-0.10
OaklandHorz0.000.1730.0031.32-0.00-0.06
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0081.870.000.10
SyracuseACC0.000.1666.6758.330.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1670.0072.100.000.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1545.4543.81-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.1544.4448.82-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1460.0057.640.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.1436.3633.52-0.06-0.05
DePaulBE0.250.1460.0034.020.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.380.1450.0038.520.00-0.03
UCLAP120.860.1472.7357.230.390.02
FurmanSC0.230.1422.2231.52-0.13-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1490.0067.320.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1388.8963.400.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0085.970.000.09
Miami OHMAC0.000.1330.0028.56-0.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.1390.0081.650.000.08
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.120.0017.19-0.00-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1275.0074.680.000.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1233.3349.72-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1280.0070.970.000.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.480.1162.5067.130.120.04
Morehead St.OVC0.760.1116.6737.98-0.51-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.1172.7353.500.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1120.0041.08-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1180.0070.970.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.250.1188.8963.880.200.03
KansasB120.250.1188.8969.210.200.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1160.0063.510.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.1160.0056.170.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1185.7170.370.000.04
UMBCAE0.000.1110.0020.97-0.00-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1162.5055.010.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.230.1077.7851.830.130.00
Arizona St.P120.230.1060.0053.630.050.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1090.0078.440.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.1090.9172.430.000.05
USCP120.000.1060.0036.070.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.090.0036.84-0.25-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.0920.0045.49-0.15-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0920.0046.54-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.280.0977.7869.590.160.04
IdahoBSky0.540.0937.5050.55-0.130.00
LipscombASun0.000.0922.2238.12-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.380.0972.7367.410.170.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0960.0064.800.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.0844.4455.60-0.030.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0820.0039.24-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.250.0890.0067.450.200.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0850.0038.230.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0830.0029.59-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.540.0825.0051.83-0.270.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0860.0058.890.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.480.0830.0039.58-0.19-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.250.0860.0075.470.050.04
Miami FLACC0.280.0881.8266.320.180.03
SamfordSC0.000.0833.3331.23-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.230.0816.6730.30-0.15-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0822.2237.12-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0833.3338.93-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0877.7875.790.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.230.0862.5059.500.060.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.0850.0047.740.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.0881.8264.670.180.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0871.4363.270.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0825.0032.93-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0855.5649.770.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.08100.0082.300.000.05
BucknellPat0.000.0840.0036.30-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0866.6757.860.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0890.0073.800.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0860.0037.150.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0855.5648.170.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0825.0036.23-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.65-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.250.0844.4431.92-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0818.1836.00-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0842.8633.87-0.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.08100.0071.400.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0028.56-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0840.0033.52-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.230.0837.5047.90-0.06-0.00
FordhamA100.000.0828.5728.06-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6766.380.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0845.4550.81-0.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0810.0018.50-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.230.0875.0057.490.110.01
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0085.760.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.0855.5638.620.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0625.0048.53-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.31-0.00-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.250.0625.0028.59-0.13-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.280.0662.5071.350.070.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.22-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.15-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.380.0642.8636.96-0.05-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2933.59-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.580.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7868.980.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.490.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.760.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.740.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.430.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0073.030.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.81-0.00-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0049.970.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0660.0052.190.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.060.0024.34-0.25-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.510.0644.4445.51-0.06-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.140.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.53-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.250.0520.0027.11-0.15-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0511.1125.05-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0577.7873.540.000.03
FloridaSEC0.480.0560.0064.140.100.02
NJITind0.230.0536.3641.21-0.06-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0014.67-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0570.0071.300.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.0522.2240.60-0.14-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0575.0067.160.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0544.4450.85-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0550.0052.110.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0575.0059.530.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0542.8637.74-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0533.3343.77-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0034.05-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0542.8626.94-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.05100.0066.920.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0590.0055.490.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0550.0053.800.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3644.80-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0044.120.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0550.0046.960.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0528.5731.22-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0026.51-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.59-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0555.5656.260.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0575.0057.990.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.850.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0550.0058.380.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0511.1144.75-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0575.0060.310.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.84-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0073.610.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.530.000.02
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.50-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8638.37-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.34-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.280.0320.0020.26-0.17-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.280.0337.5038.43-0.07-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.280.0377.7871.170.160.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
AuburnSEC0.250.0344.4435.91-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4347.640.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.250.0342.8652.90-0.040.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.09-0.14-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.280.0362.5057.080.070.00
San DiegoWCC0.280.0354.5557.650.030.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.36-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0327.2738.75-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.280.0314.2929.35-0.20-0.01
UMKCWAC0.250.0322.2242.00-0.14-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.230.0357.1470.410.030.01
RadfordBSth0.250.0355.5659.230.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.0344.4449.69-0.03-0.00
TowsonCAA0.250.0366.6751.280.080.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.030.0028.67-0.23-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5737.33-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.87-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5661.600.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0026.38-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.230.0366.6764.740.080.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.230.0316.6744.58-0.15-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0095.110.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.230.0333.3345.26-0.08-0.00
LSUSEC0.230.0380.0064.030.140.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.32-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0081.790.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.71-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6755.450.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.230.0344.4444.86-0.03-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.210.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.230.0355.5645.620.03-0.00
TulsaAmer0.250.0360.0056.900.050.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.0314.2945.11-0.16-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5655.500.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0360.0071.320.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.44-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0064.750.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0318.1838.45-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.98-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.230.0377.7868.880.130.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.55-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.760.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6768.290.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.86-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.039.0929.87-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.56-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.49-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0043.07-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.620.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.230.0350.0057.700.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.230.0344.4440.07-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0328.5741.46-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.60-0.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.500.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.00-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.220.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3333.03-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.380.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.840.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0059.930.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.84-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0021.61-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.570.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7855.570.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.230.030.008.14-0.23-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3340.96-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.58-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.680.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.79-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.120.000.01
TempleAmer0.230.0363.6455.560.060.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.330.000.00
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.680.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0314.2933.57-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.57-0.00-0.00