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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:114.0
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:28
Current SOS:28
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18114.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH85-50W100%0.0
11-12Yale (183.0)IvyH89-61W100%0.0
11-16Xavier (3.0)BEH70-80L0%0.0
11-20Baylor (68.0)B12N65-70L0%0.0
11-21UCLA (36.0)P12N70-72L0%0.0
11-24Milwaukee (231.0)HorzH71-49W100%0.0
11-27Virginia (1.0)ACCA49-37L0%0.0
12-2Ohio St. (20.0)B10H58-83L0%0.0
12-4Penn St. (77.0)B10A63-64W100%0.0
12-6Temple (52.0)AmerA59-55L0%0.0
12-9Marquette (58.0)BEH63-82L0%0.0
12-13Western Kentucky (39.0)CUSAH81-80W100%0.0
12-23Green Bay (303.0)HorzH81-60W100%0.0
12-27Chicago St. (335.0)WACH82-70W100%0.0
12-30UMass Lowell (289.0)AEH82-53W100%0.0
1-2Indiana (125.0)B10H71-61W100%0.0
1-5Rutgers (203.0)B10A64-60L0%0.0
1-9Nebraska (56.0)B10A63-59L0%0.0
1-16Purdue (9.0)B10A78-50L0%0.0
1-19Illinois (181.0)B10H75-50W100%0.0
1-23Iowa (157.0)B10A85-67L0%0.0
1-26Michigan St. (14.0)B10A76-61L0%0.0
1-29Nebraska (56.0)B10H63-74L0%0.0
2-1Northwestern (168.0)B10H52-60L0%0.0
2-4Maryland (74.0)B10A68-63L0%0.0
2-8Illinois (181.0)B10A69-78W100%0.0
2-11Michigan (12.0)B10H72-83L0%0.0
2-15Purdue (9.0)B10H57-53W100%0.0
2-19Minnesota (171.0)B10H73-63W100%0.0
2-22Northwestern (168.0)B10A64-70W100%0.0
2-25Michigan St. (14.0)B10H63-68L0%0.0
3-1Maryland (74.0)B10N54-59W100%0.0
3-2Michigan St. (14.0)B10N63-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.1626.1640.1440.14-5.16-5.16
Michigan St.B105.115.1186.6786.673.753.75
PurdueB103.713.7184.3884.382.552.55
MarylandB103.663.6658.6258.620.630.63
IllinoisB103.643.6444.8344.83-0.38-0.38
NorthwesternB103.623.6244.8344.83-0.37-0.37
NebraskaB103.593.5966.6766.671.201.20
MichiganB102.362.3678.7978.791.361.36
RutgersB102.292.2940.6240.62-0.43-0.43
Penn St.B102.272.2763.6463.640.620.62
IowaB102.172.1740.6240.62-0.41-0.41
MinnesotaB102.172.1748.3948.39-0.07-0.07
IndianaB102.172.1753.3353.330.140.14
Ohio St.B102.102.1074.1974.191.021.02
Chicago St.WAC1.661.663.453.45-1.54-1.54
MarquetteBE1.631.6358.0658.060.260.26
XavierBE1.591.5984.3884.381.091.09
MilwaukeeHorz1.571.5750.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
Green BayHorz1.561.5634.4834.48-0.49-0.49
UCLAP121.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Western KentuckyCUSA1.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
YaleIvy1.541.5451.7251.720.050.05
BaylorB121.541.5453.3353.330.100.10
TempleAmer1.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
UMass LowellAE1.521.5239.2939.29-0.32-0.32
VirginiaACC1.521.5293.7593.751.331.33
DePaulBE0.280.2835.4835.48-0.08-0.08
CreightonBE0.260.2664.5264.520.080.08
ButlerBE0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
OaklandHorz0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1932.3532.35-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
DetroitHorz0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.160.1688.2488.240.130.13
North CarolinaACC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
UMBCAE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
IUPUIHorz0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
BrownIvy0.130.1338.4638.46-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
DukeACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
PennIvy0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
OklahomaB120.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Texas TechB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1015.6215.62-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
StanfordP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
ValparaisoMVC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
LipscombASun0.040.0468.9768.970.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01