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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wisconsin

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:4.0
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:14
Current SOS:14
Current Record:31-3
Expected Record:31-3
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
31-34.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH62-31W100%0.0
11-16Chattanooga (112.0)SCH89-45W100%0.0
11-19Green Bay (54.0)HorzH84-60W100%0.0
11-22Boise St. (40.0)MWCH78-54W100%0.0
11-26UAB (130.0)CUSAN43-72W100%0.0
11-27Georgetown (25.0)BEN65-68W100%0.0
11-28Oklahoma (18.0)B12N69-56W100%0.0
12-3Duke (6.0)ACCH70-80L0%0.0
12-6Marquette (147.0)BEA38-49W100%0.0
12-10Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA54-93W100%0.0
12-13Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH86-43W100%0.0
12-22California (95.0)P12A56-68W100%0.0
12-28Buffalo (28.0)MACH68-56W100%0.0
12-31Penn St. (108.0)B10H89-72W100%0.0
1-4Northwestern (125.0)B10A58-81W100%0.0
1-7Purdue (55.0)B10H62-55W100%0.0
1-11Rutgers (178.0)B10A67-62L0%0.0
1-15Nebraska (158.0)B10H70-55W100%0.0
1-20Iowa (43.0)B10H82-50W100%0.0
1-24Michigan (81.0)B10A64-69W100%0.0
1-31Iowa (43.0)B10A63-74W100%0.0
2-3Indiana (61.0)B10H92-78W100%0.0
2-7Northwestern (125.0)B10H65-50W100%0.0
2-10Nebraska (158.0)B10A55-65W100%0.0
2-15Illinois (73.0)B10H68-49W100%0.0
2-18Penn St. (108.0)B10A47-55W100%0.0
2-21Minnesota (98.0)B10H63-53W100%0.0
2-24Maryland (13.0)B10A59-53L0%0.0
3-1Michigan St. (23.0)B10H68-61W100%0.0
3-5Minnesota (98.0)B10A63-76W100%0.0
3-8Ohio St. (41.0)B10A48-72W100%0.0
3-13Michigan (81.0)B10N71-60W100%0.0
3-14Purdue (55.0)B10N71-51W100%0.0
3-15Michigan St. (23.0)B10N80-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wisconsin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wisconsin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
WisconsinB1026.1526.1591.7791.7721.8521.85
Penn St.B103.633.6356.2556.250.450.45
Michigan St.B103.633.6371.8871.881.591.59
MinnesotaB103.603.6056.6756.670.480.48
NorthwesternB103.583.5850.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB103.583.5851.7251.720.120.12
NebraskaB103.583.5844.8344.83-0.37-0.37
IowaB103.583.5870.0070.001.431.43
PurdueB103.553.5567.7467.741.261.26
Ohio St.B102.242.2471.8871.880.980.98
IllinoisB102.202.2061.2961.290.500.50
IndianaB102.172.1762.5062.500.540.54
MarylandB102.172.1781.2581.251.361.36
RutgersB102.152.1529.0329.03-0.90-0.90
Northern KentuckyASun1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
MarquetteBE1.581.5841.9441.94-0.26-0.26
GeorgetownBE1.541.5470.0070.000.620.62
Green BayHorz1.521.5275.8675.860.790.79
MilwaukeeHorz1.521.5244.4444.44-0.17-0.17
ChattanoogaSC1.521.5268.9768.970.580.58
Nicholls St.Slnd1.521.5228.0028.00-0.67-0.67
DukeACC1.511.5187.5087.501.141.14
UABCUSA1.501.5056.2556.250.190.19
Boise St.MWC1.471.4776.6776.670.780.78
BuffaloMAC1.471.4774.1974.190.710.71
CaliforniaP121.471.4756.2556.250.180.18
OklahomaB121.471.4770.9770.970.620.62
ButlerBE0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
North FloridaASun0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
CreightonBE0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.190.1994.1294.120.160.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
OaklandHorz0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
SyracuseACC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
DetroitHorz0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.140.1468.5768.570.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
ArizonaP120.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
Miami OHMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
KansasB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1058.3358.330.020.02
LipscombASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.9190.910.080.08
UMBCAE0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
WyomingMWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.050.05
WashingtonP120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
FIUCUSA0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.040.000.00-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.040.0448.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00