Iona

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	107.0
Current RPI:	107
Expected SOS:	161
Current SOS:	161
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	110
Expected OOC SOS:	111

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	107.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	69-67	L	0%
11-14	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	71-62	L	0%
11-17	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	N	72-80	W	100%
11-18	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	N	72-85	L	0%
11-19	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	N	84-89	L	0%
11-28	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	88-93	W	100%
12-2	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	82-75	W	100%
12-9	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	70-74	W	100%
12-12	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	83-67	W	100%
12-17	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	69-59	L	0%
12-19	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	68-82	W	100%
12-21	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	80-74	L	0%
12-29	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	93-98	W	100%
12-31	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	85-78	L	0%
1-5	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	H	73-69	W	100%
1-7	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	84-65	W	100%
1-11	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	71-69	W	100%
1-14	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	91-64	W	100%
1-19	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	73-76	W	100%
1-21	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	82-84	L	0%
1-27	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	N	65-78	W	100%
1-29	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	103-100	L	0%
2-2	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	87-82	W	100%
2-4	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	64-98	W	100%
2-8	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	50-72	L	0%
2-10	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	77-86	W	100%
2-12	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	82-78	L	0%
2-16	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	84-85	L	0%
2-23	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	H	88-75	W	100%
2-25	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	110-101	L	0%
3-3	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	N	72-60	W	100%
3-4	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	N	65-62	W	100%
3-5	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	N	83-71	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Iona	MAAC	26.47	26.47	64.05	64.05	7.44	7.44
Saint Peter's	MAAC	5.39	5.39	48.28	48.28	-0.19	-0.19
Fairfield	MAAC	5.38	5.38	53.33	53.33	0.36	0.36
Manhattan	MAAC	5.31	5.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	4.01	4.01	34.48	34.48	-1.24	-1.24
Siena	MAAC	3.91	3.91	23.33	23.33	-2.09	-2.09
Rider	MAAC	3.91	3.91	72.41	72.41	1.75	1.75
Niagara	MAAC	3.91	3.91	60.00	60.00	0.78	0.78
Canisius	MAAC	3.84	3.84	63.33	63.33	1.02	1.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	2.58	2.58	37.50	37.50	-0.65	-0.65
Marist	MAAC	2.49	2.49	20.00	20.00	-1.49	-1.49
Holy Cross	Pat	1.71	1.71	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Albany	AE	1.71	1.71	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.64	1.64	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Yale	Ivy	1.59	1.59	51.72	51.72	0.05	0.05
NJIT	ASun	1.54	1.54	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
Rhode Island	A10	1.54	1.54	77.42	77.42	0.84	0.84
Coastal Carolina	SB	1.52	1.52	35.71	35.71	-0.43	-0.43
Northern Kentucky	Horz	1.52	1.52	67.86	67.86	0.54	0.54
Ohio	MAC	1.52	1.52	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
St. John's	BE	1.52	1.52	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
Syracuse	ACC	1.52	1.52	59.38	59.38	0.28	0.28
Weber St.	BSky	1.52	1.52	62.96	62.96	0.39	0.39
Seton Hall	BE	0.32	0.32	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.25	0.25	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.24	0.24	78.12	78.12	0.13	0.13
Hofstra	CAA	0.22	0.22	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Vermont	AE	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.20	0.20	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Lehigh	Pat	0.19	0.19	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Lafayette	Pat	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.15	0.15	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Brown	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.15	23.08	23.08	-0.08	-0.08
Army	Pat	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	93.94	93.94	0.10	0.10
Elon	CAA	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
UMass Lowell	AE	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
College of Charleston	CAA	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01