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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:123.7
Current RPI:147
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:229
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:11-3
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-986.32.46%
19-1099.816.27%
18-11116.136.35%
17-12134.230.86%
16-13152.011.72%
15-14168.32.19%
14-15183.10.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Valparaiso (37.2)HorzA83-58L0%0.0
11-17Oregon St. (57.9)P12A93-73L0%0.0
11-20Delaware (275.2)CAAH92-77W100%0.0
12-1Fairfield (170.5)MAACH101-77W100%0.0
12-4Marist (313.2)MAACA66-101W100%0.0
12-8Tulsa (66.2)AmerA90-81L0%0.0
12-16Texas Southern (194.5)SWACH83-73W100%0.0
12-19Rhode Island (97.3)A10A79-74L0%0.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWN76-80L0%0.0
12-23Akron (33.3)MACN78-64L0%0.0
12-28Drexel (265.2)CAAH77-70W100%0.0
1-2Quinnipiac (274.8)MAACA66-78W100%0.0
1-4Niagara (308.3)MAACH65-52W100%0.0
1-7Rider (227.7)MAACH67-58W100%0.0
1-9Marist (313.2)MAACH90-80W100%0.0
1-15Monmouth (40.5)MAACH102-110L0%0.0
1-17Rider (227.7)MAACA79-75L0%0.0
1-22Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACH64-58W100%0.0
1-24Fairfield (170.5)MAACA98-91L0%0.0
1-29Manhattan (227.3)MAACH70-56W100%0.0
2-1Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACA67-75W100%0.0
2-5Canisius (216.0)MAACA66-84W100%0.0
2-7Niagara (308.3)MAACA61-75W100%0.0
2-13Siena (99.5)MAACH0-062%3.2
2-15Quinnipiac (274.8)MAACH0-090%14.0
2-19Monmouth (40.5)MAACA0-021%-8.8
2-22Siena (99.5)MAACA0-037%-3.5
2-26Manhattan (227.3)MAACA0-070%5.8
2-28Canisius (216.0)MAACH0-081%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC26.5426.4263.9263.477.397.12
MonmouthMAAC3.024.5279.1780.581.762.77
RiderMAAC5.194.5239.1341.57-1.13-0.76
QuinnipiacMAAC3.034.5238.1038.46-0.72-1.04
MaristMAAC5.094.5123.8125.98-2.67-2.17
CanisiusMAAC3.014.4945.8347.77-0.25-0.20
NiagaraMAAC5.014.4926.0926.24-2.40-2.13
SienaMAAC1.024.4964.0065.080.291.35
FairfieldMAAC5.094.4954.5554.440.460.40
ManhattanMAAC2.844.4245.0044.14-0.28-0.52
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.024.4245.0046.62-0.50-0.30
Oregon St.P122.371.8760.0054.810.470.18
DelawareCAA2.271.8522.7324.17-1.24-0.95
DrexelCAA2.221.8414.2918.82-1.58-1.15
Rhode IslandA102.311.8156.5255.740.300.21
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.271.7840.0048.56-0.45-0.05
ValparaisoHorz2.271.7880.9582.441.411.16
AkronMAC2.231.7581.8280.491.421.07
TulsaAmer2.231.7563.6460.140.610.36
Texas SouthernSWAC2.171.7247.6256.01-0.100.21
VermontAE0.280.2652.0054.860.010.03
HartfordAE0.320.2325.0026.75-0.16-0.11
HofstraCAA0.190.2365.2264.220.060.07
AlbanyAE0.230.2376.0076.310.120.12
CornellIvy0.190.2342.1140.21-0.03-0.04
BrownIvy0.330.2031.5831.07-0.12-0.08
USCP120.190.2078.2673.050.110.09
St. BonaventureA100.180.1971.4368.940.080.07
BucknellPat0.140.1754.5558.160.010.03
DartmouthIvy0.230.1731.5831.75-0.08-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.140.1765.2260.590.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.1721.7422.74-0.13-0.09
WagnerNEC0.220.1763.6465.020.060.05
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1566.6765.220.060.05
Holy CrossPat0.190.1539.1338.31-0.04-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.140.1456.5256.990.020.02
La SalleA100.230.1420.0020.46-0.14-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.230.1482.6178.910.150.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1237.5043.38-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1263.6460.920.040.03
ElonCAA0.100.1252.1750.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.150.1270.8369.490.060.05
NortheasternCAA0.090.1245.8346.64-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.190.1265.2259.770.060.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1276.1973.420.100.06
William & MaryCAA0.140.1271.4369.830.060.05
FordhamA100.100.1255.0052.190.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1219.0525.89-0.09-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.190.1272.2274.700.080.06
UCLAP120.100.1256.5253.270.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1234.7837.05-0.04-0.03
ArmyPat0.140.1254.1754.580.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.1254.1755.600.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1230.4332.36-0.07-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.090.1134.7837.17-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.040.1186.9682.300.030.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0935.0032.27-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.0965.2262.830.030.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.0950.0051.920.000.00
OregonP120.100.0982.6179.220.070.05
MemphisAmer0.050.0960.8760.820.010.02
George MasonA100.100.0933.3333.68-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.140.0978.2674.410.080.04
Green BayHorz0.100.0954.5556.020.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.0963.6459.810.030.02
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.140.0947.6249.35-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.090.0963.6461.420.030.02
HoustonAmer0.140.0969.5766.580.050.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.0823.8126.56-0.07-0.04
MarylandB100.130.0887.5083.700.100.06
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0856.5262.790.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.130.0875.0070.990.070.04
Arizona St.P120.100.0654.1751.690.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.55-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.100.0669.5765.330.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0652.0050.250.000.00
HawaiiBW0.100.0684.2181.660.070.04
LafayettePat0.100.0621.7423.00-0.06-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.380.040.04
Seton HallBE0.100.0673.9169.970.050.02
StanfordP120.050.0650.0046.540.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0640.0036.76-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0672.7371.650.050.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.100.0669.5767.500.040.02
WashingtonP120.050.0665.2261.100.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.3679.110.070.03
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3631.98-0.01-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.0666.6766.540.030.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.065.007.21-0.09-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0633.3333.13-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.630.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.22-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.06-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.980.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.010.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0660.8757.190.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0652.1751.910.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0639.1337.81-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.0019.68-0.03-0.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0687.5086.910.070.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.89-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.36-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0640.0040.31-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0624.0025.67-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.540.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0643.4841.96-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.09-0.03-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.200.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0629.1733.74-0.04-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.09-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.32-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.0683.3378.390.060.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0660.0057.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0664.0062.060.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.069.0917.13-0.08-0.04
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.110.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0661.9065.300.010.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0633.3332.36-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.860.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0673.6874.680.040.03
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0026.39-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0675.0071.800.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.040.0656.0052.830.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0650.0049.790.00-0.00
LehighPat0.040.0636.3639.78-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0647.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0640.9139.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0618.1821.15-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.12-0.04-0.02
Notre DameACC0.040.0670.8367.790.020.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0051.300.000.00
RutgersB100.040.0621.7420.37-0.02-0.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.40-0.04-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.0660.8755.830.000.01
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.460.000.00
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.010.00
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.63-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.66-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.12-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.200.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.74-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.90-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.05-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.24-0.04-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0053.100.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.910.040.02
BaylorB120.050.0372.7366.400.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.01-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.310.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.44-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.92-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.30-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.210.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.78-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.730.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.10-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.530.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.040.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.720.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.91-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0360.0057.940.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.430.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.880.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.470.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.54-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.34-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0373.9173.970.000.01