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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:82.3
Current RPI:93
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:169
Current Record:12-7
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-749.72.49%
22-858.412.78%
21-968.724.75%
20-1081.027.44%
19-1196.119.30%
18-12113.09.55%
17-13131.62.98%
16-14151.30.61%
15-15172.20.08%
14-16184.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Albany (131.7)AEA69-67L0%0.0
11-14Syracuse (43.7)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
11-17Weber St. (183.0)BSkyN72-80W100%0.0
11-18Northern Kentucky (88.6)HorzN72-85L0%0.0
11-19Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBN84-89L0%0.0
11-28Ohio (171.2)MACA88-93W100%0.0
12-2Fairleigh Dickinson (278.6)NECH82-75W100%0.0
12-9NJIT (274.8)ASunA70-74W100%0.0
12-12Yale (203.6)IvyH83-67W100%0.0
12-17St. John's (95.0)BEA69-59L0%0.0
12-19Holy Cross (304.1)PatA68-82W100%0.0
12-21Rhode Island (14.4)A10A80-74L0%0.0
12-29Niagara (187.6)MAACA93-98W100%0.0
12-31Canisius (141.9)MAACA85-78L0%0.0
1-5Saint Peter's (226.6)MAACH73-69W100%0.0
1-7Fairfield (217.8)MAACH84-65W100%0.0
1-11Siena (259.9)MAACH71-69W100%0.0
1-14Rider (106.0)MAACH91-64W100%0.0
1-19Monmouth (175.3)MAACA73-76W100%0.0
1-21Canisius (141.9)MAACH0-074%7.2
1-27Manhattan (216.7)MAACN0-073%6.7
1-29Fairfield (217.8)MAACA0-064%3.9
2-2Quinnipiac (307.8)MAACH0-093%16.5
2-4Marist (318.3)MAACA0-083%10.8
2-8Monmouth (175.3)MAACH0-073%6.8
2-10Saint Peter's (226.6)MAACA0-061%3.0
2-12Siena (259.9)MAACA0-072%6.6
2-16Niagara (187.6)MAACH0-084%11.3
2-23Manhattan (216.7)MAACH0-081%9.9
2-25Rider (106.0)MAACA0-048%-0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC26.3626.2969.8871.7310.4811.43
MonmouthMAAC2.984.2229.4142.83-1.23-0.60
SienaMAAC2.904.1731.5832.92-1.07-1.42
CanisiusMAAC2.984.1457.8960.160.470.84
ManhattanMAAC0.494.1447.3749.96-0.03-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC3.054.1347.0651.08-0.180.09
NiagaraMAAC2.984.1160.0056.360.600.52
RiderMAAC2.914.1168.4268.181.071.50
FairfieldMAAC2.834.1041.1846.06-0.50-0.32
MaristMAAC0.332.5521.0522.18-0.19-1.42
QuinnipiacMAAC0.412.5531.5830.79-0.15-0.98
AlbanyAE2.981.8968.4266.951.100.64
Holy CrossPat2.911.8627.7831.52-1.29-0.69
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.851.7825.0033.88-1.42-0.58
YaleIvy2.771.7543.7549.21-0.35-0.03
NJITASun2.711.7041.1844.24-0.48-0.20
Rhode IslandA102.701.7082.3580.751.751.04
Coastal CarolinaSB2.631.6723.5335.84-1.39-0.47
Northern KentuckyHorz2.631.6764.7172.250.770.74
OhioMAC2.631.6750.0050.170.000.01
St. John'sBE2.631.6744.4440.18-0.29-0.33
SyracuseACC2.631.6766.6759.980.880.33
Weber St.BSky2.631.6760.0059.600.530.32
Seton HallBE0.440.3175.0067.890.220.11
St. BonaventureA100.410.2766.6768.700.140.10
VermontAE0.290.2373.6877.120.140.12
Robert MorrisNEC0.270.2257.1460.400.040.05
LehighPat0.290.2238.8944.75-0.06-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.270.2272.2274.900.120.11
HofstraCAA0.200.2257.8959.470.030.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.370.2140.0042.57-0.07-0.03
WagnerNEC0.290.2164.7164.540.090.06
New HampshireAE0.270.2029.4138.15-0.11-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.290.1830.0033.49-0.12-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.1733.3335.19-0.02-0.05
LafayettePat0.220.1722.2227.51-0.12-0.08
BrownIvy0.300.1750.0045.130.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.210.179.5217.08-0.17-0.11
ColgatePat0.280.1750.0051.040.000.00
PennIvy0.150.1764.7162.780.040.04
MassachusettsA100.210.1750.0046.780.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.130.1761.1160.530.030.04
DartmouthIvy0.130.1721.4326.21-0.08-0.08
BucknellPat0.210.1761.9068.010.050.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.1457.8966.250.030.05
PrincetonIvy0.150.1452.9460.270.010.03
La SalleA100.220.1440.0042.72-0.04-0.02
HarvardIvy0.070.1437.5046.63-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.200.1420.0041.76-0.12-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.210.1470.0060.460.080.03
HartfordAE0.130.1452.6346.880.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.130.1433.3333.36-0.04-0.05
VirginiaACC0.220.1494.4485.440.190.10
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1233.3333.80-0.05-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.150.1250.0045.900.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.1268.4269.240.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.060.1252.9459.250.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.140.1122.2228.67-0.08-0.05
DrexelCAA0.140.1130.0030.99-0.06-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.140.1129.4130.67-0.06-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1120.0023.36-0.08-0.06
Texas St.SB0.140.1157.8950.210.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1160.0062.030.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.1121.0523.50-0.04-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.070.1120.0032.26-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.1166.6765.620.070.04
MemphisAmer0.200.1165.0058.490.060.02
Wake ForestACC0.140.1144.4441.15-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.140.1152.6351.090.010.00
XavierBE0.140.1185.7180.080.100.07
LouisvilleACC0.130.1177.7869.360.070.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0916.6724.91-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0942.1144.97-0.02-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.0952.3848.520.01-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0933.3336.92-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.220.0970.0065.320.090.03
Penn St.B100.140.0961.9055.770.030.01
OaklandHorz0.140.0961.9065.160.030.03
DaytonA100.150.0947.3750.95-0.010.00
UMBCAE0.070.0958.8258.360.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.140.0950.0053.160.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.140.0944.4444.86-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.0830.0036.48-0.06-0.02
BYUWCC0.140.0880.9576.230.090.04
ToledoMAC0.150.0866.6767.690.050.03
CreightonBE0.150.0875.0070.690.070.03
FordhamA100.000.0831.5829.060.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.140.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.1839.13-0.01-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.0850.0055.650.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0810.5314.86-0.05-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.0810.5316.75-0.11-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0852.6347.390.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.210.0868.4254.090.080.01
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0652.9459.360.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0611.1115.30-0.06-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0658.8257.140.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0658.8263.210.010.02
RutgersB100.150.0657.8947.140.02-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0616.6724.46-0.05-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1117.96-0.06-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.160.0625.0028.25-0.08-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3337.220.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0627.7831.120.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.98-0.04-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0677.7879.160.080.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0625.0027.94-0.04-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1145.97-0.01-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.84-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.150.0650.0054.850.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.260.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.05-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0626.3228.140.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.760.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.700.020.01
DavidsonA100.000.0658.8261.440.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0641.1843.41-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.065.8819.37-0.06-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0647.0641.450.00-0.01
NavyPat0.070.0660.0055.160.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.760.040.03
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.060.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.650.000.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0684.2173.210.050.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0652.6343.120.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0644.4442.74-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.01
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.32-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.950.030.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.530.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0670.0068.420.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0629.4139.620.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0666.6759.780.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0657.8950.810.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0638.8946.68-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.1666.000.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0655.0053.290.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0630.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.710.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7490.310.060.04
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.190.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0537.5031.76-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0568.4255.060.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0552.6347.360.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0563.6457.640.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0518.7536.76-0.04-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0545.0044.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0535.2940.48-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0540.0030.87-0.01-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0365.0057.870.020.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0338.8946.030.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0366.6763.420.030.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.140.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0047.670.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0345.0045.50-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0366.6766.010.030.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.530.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0383.3381.350.050.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0323.5328.70-0.04-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.900.020.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.980.030.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.620.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.990.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0312.5025.47-0.06-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.750.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.94-0.06-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.100.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0368.4263.640.030.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.070.050.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0321.0539.47-0.04-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.350.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.91-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0327.7831.67-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.080.0373.6865.590.040.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0368.4270.810.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.230.000.00
WisconsinB100.080.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
ColoradoP120.000.0360.0053.730.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0352.9457.320.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0366.6763.200.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0370.5975.930.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.22-0.02-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0318.7518.400.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.880.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.610.030.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.740.050.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0376.4769.020.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.050.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4257.770.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.050.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0321.0544.26-0.04-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0368.4257.780.030.00