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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:77.0
Current RPI:77
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:147
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:19-4
Expected Conf Record:19-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1077.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA83-58L0%0.0
11-17Oregon St. (33.0)P12A93-73L0%0.0
11-20Delaware (274.0)CAAH92-77W100%0.0
12-1Fairfield (142.0)MAACH101-77W100%0.0
12-4Marist (318.0)MAACA66-101W100%0.0
12-8Tulsa (58.0)AmerA90-81L0%0.0
12-16Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH83-73W100%0.0
12-19Rhode Island (119.0)A10A79-74L0%0.0
12-22UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWN76-80L0%0.0
12-23Akron (34.0)MACN78-64L0%0.0
12-28Drexel (247.0)CAAH77-70W100%0.0
1-2Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA66-78W100%0.0
1-4Niagara (315.0)MAACH65-52W100%0.0
1-7Rider (242.0)MAACH67-58W100%0.0
1-9Marist (318.0)MAACH90-80W100%0.0
1-15Monmouth (52.0)MAACH102-110L0%0.0
1-17Rider (242.0)MAACA79-75L0%0.0
1-22Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH64-58W100%0.0
1-24Fairfield (142.0)MAACA98-91L0%0.0
1-29Manhattan (229.0)MAACH70-56W100%0.0
2-1Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA67-75W100%0.0
2-5Canisius (220.0)MAACA66-84W100%0.0
2-7Niagara (315.0)MAACA61-75W100%0.0
2-13Siena (104.0)MAACH78-81L0%0.0
2-15Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH78-59W100%0.0
2-19Monmouth (52.0)MAACA67-83W100%0.0
2-22Siena (104.0)MAACA81-87W100%0.0
2-26Manhattan (229.0)MAACA73-86W100%0.0
2-28Canisius (220.0)MAACH86-78W100%0.0
3-4Canisius (220.0)MAACN73-55W100%0.0
3-6Siena (104.0)MAACA70-81W100%0.0
3-7Monmouth (52.0)MAACN76-79W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC26.5626.5671.6271.6211.4911.49
MonmouthMAAC5.805.8083.8783.873.933.93
SienaMAAC5.725.7266.6766.671.911.91
CanisiusMAAC5.725.7246.6746.67-0.38-0.38
RiderMAAC4.304.3038.7138.71-0.97-0.97
FairfieldMAAC4.274.2760.0060.000.850.85
ManhattanMAAC4.274.2744.8344.83-0.44-0.44
NiagaraMAAC4.224.2223.3323.33-2.25-2.25
MaristMAAC4.224.2225.0025.00-2.11-2.11
QuinnipiacMAAC4.224.2232.1432.14-1.51-1.51
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.194.1950.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P121.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
DrexelCAA1.681.6820.6920.69-0.99-0.99
DelawareCAA1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
Rhode IslandA101.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6179.3179.310.950.95
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
AkronMAC1.591.5975.0075.000.790.79
TulsaAmer1.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
Texas SouthernSWAC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
HofstraCAA0.270.2771.8871.880.120.12
CornellIvy0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
AlbanyAE0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
USCP120.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.220.2273.3373.330.100.10
HartfordAE0.200.2028.1228.12-0.09-0.09
BrownIvy0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
BucknellPat0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
WagnerNEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
ElonCAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
La SalleA100.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
UCLAP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
RutgersB100.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01