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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:59.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:121
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:19-4
Expected Conf Record:19-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:148
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1059.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA73-69L0%0.0
11-16Wofford (153.0)SCH76-55W100%0.0
11-19Kansas (3.0)B12A86-66L0%0.0
11-23George Mason (164.0)A10H89-73W100%0.0
12-1Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA72-90W100%0.0
12-4Marist (250.0)MAACH83-74W100%0.0
12-8Fairfield (289.0)MAACA72-83W100%0.0
12-14St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H89-102L0%0.0
12-19Dayton (43.0)A10A96-84L0%0.0
12-22Nevada (137.0)MWCA80-72L0%0.0
12-28Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA90-78L0%0.0
1-4Niagara (302.0)MAACH118-92W100%0.0
1-6Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA86-74L0%0.0
1-10Fairfield (289.0)MAACH84-75W100%0.0
1-12Siena (193.0)MAACA78-87W100%0.0
1-17Canisius (96.0)MAACH83-85L0%0.0
1-19Siena (193.0)MAACH88-74W100%0.0
1-24Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH95-73W100%0.0
1-26Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA63-71W100%0.0
1-31Manhattan (60.0)MAACH85-73W100%0.0
2-4Monmouth (292.0)MAACA71-89W100%0.0
2-7Niagara (302.0)MAACA89-90W100%0.0
2-9Canisius (96.0)MAACA91-101W100%0.0
2-12Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH62-59W100%0.0
2-14Monmouth (292.0)MAACH89-70W100%0.0
2-21Rider (198.0)MAACA77-80W100%0.0
2-23Marist (250.0)MAACA67-86W100%0.0
2-28Manhattan (60.0)MAACA80-77L0%0.0
3-2Rider (198.0)MAACH97-81W100%0.0
3-8Rider (198.0)MAACN94-71W100%0.0
3-9Canisius (96.0)MAACN75-72W100%0.0
3-10Manhattan (60.0)MAACN68-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC26.5826.5872.6072.6012.0212.02
ManhattanMAAC5.785.7879.3179.313.393.39
CanisiusMAAC5.755.7568.9768.972.182.18
RiderMAAC5.725.7250.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC4.294.2922.5822.58-2.35-2.35
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.284.2848.2848.28-0.15-0.15
QuinnipiacMAAC4.284.2865.5265.521.331.33
SienaMAAC4.264.2650.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC4.244.2436.6736.67-1.13-1.13
FairfieldMAAC4.214.2123.3323.33-2.25-2.25
MaristMAAC4.214.2141.3841.38-0.73-0.73
St. BonaventureA101.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
George MasonA101.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
DaytonA101.611.6168.7568.750.600.60
Northern IowaMVC1.591.5948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
KansasB121.561.5671.8871.880.680.68
NevadaMWC1.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
WoffordSC1.561.5660.7160.710.330.33
La SalleA100.320.3248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.290.2932.2632.26-0.10-0.10
PennIvy0.250.2528.5728.57-0.11-0.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.240.2472.7372.730.110.11
BuffaloMAC0.220.2264.2964.290.060.06
AlbanyAE0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
HartfordAE0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.170.1780.6580.650.110.11
PurdueB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
HofstraCAA0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
ElonSC0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
LehighPat0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.120.123.703.70-0.11-0.11
DuquesneA100.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
BinghamtonAE0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
VermontAE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
LamarSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
South DakotaSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01