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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:89.3
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:14
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:75
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-427.00.02%
24-521.60.10%
23-627.10.48%
22-734.01.76%
21-842.94.64%
20-951.69.20%
19-1062.815.00%
18-1175.917.00%
17-1290.817.57%
16-13107.614.17%
15-14126.210.40%
14-15144.95.37%
13-16163.12.83%
12-17185.11.02%
11-18203.40.31%
10-19225.40.10%
9-20247.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Albany (93.1)AEA69-67L0%0.0
11-14Syracuse (45.7)ACCA71-62L0%0.0
11-17Weber St. (168.8)BSkyN72-80W100%0.0
11-18Northern Kentucky (98.6)HorzN72-85L0%0.0
11-28Ohio (174.6)MACA0-053%0.9
12-2Fairleigh Dickinson (237.1)NECH0-087%13.2
12-9NJIT (312.5)ASunA0-082%10.8
12-12Yale (127.9)IvyH0-062%3.7
12-17St. John's (65.5)BEA0-022%-9.4
12-19Holy Cross (207.8)PatA0-067%5.3
12-21Rhode Island (26.4)A10A0-016%-12.1
12-29Niagara (180.5)MAACA0-060%3.0
12-31Canisius (227.2)MAACA0-063%4.0
1-5Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACH0-079%9.8
1-7Fairfield (168.0)MAACH0-076%8.4
1-11Siena (227.7)MAACH0-082%11.1
1-14Rider (152.2)MAACH0-072%6.9
1-19Monmouth (75.4)MAACA0-041%-2.8
1-21Canisius (227.2)MAACH0-080%10.0
1-27Manhattan (178.2)MAACN0-067%5.2
1-29Fairfield (168.0)MAACA0-058%2.4
2-2Quinnipiac (307.4)MAACH0-090%15.4
2-4Marist (316.7)MAACA0-083%11.3
2-8Monmouth (75.4)MAACH0-061%3.2
2-10Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACA0-063%3.8
2-12Siena (227.7)MAACA0-066%5.1
2-16Niagara (180.5)MAACH0-077%9.0
2-23Manhattan (178.2)MAACH0-075%8.2
2-25Rider (152.2)MAACA0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC33.3326.3431.2563.72-12.507.23
MonmouthMAAC0.004.3966.6760.480.000.92
SienaMAAC0.004.340.0037.850.00-1.06
CanisiusMAAC0.004.3133.3347.550.00-0.21
ManhattanMAAC0.004.30100.0057.390.000.64
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.3033.3350.150.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.004.2850.0053.310.000.28
RiderMAAC0.004.2866.6756.520.000.56
FairfieldMAAC0.004.2866.6756.510.000.56
QuinnipiacMAAC0.002.6725.0033.290.00-0.89
MaristMAAC0.002.670.0024.080.00-1.38
AlbanyAE12.501.95100.0071.5612.500.84
Holy CrossPat0.001.94100.0049.380.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.850.0046.170.00-0.14
YaleIvy2.081.8125.0055.54-1.040.20
NJITASun0.001.7633.3333.780.00-0.57
Rhode IslandA100.001.7550.0072.820.000.80
Northern KentuckyHorz12.501.72100.0069.8512.500.68
OhioMAC0.001.7233.3348.530.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.001.72100.0053.720.000.13
SyracuseACC12.501.72100.0060.9812.500.38
Weber St.BSky12.501.72100.0068.6712.500.64
Seton HallBE0.000.34100.0067.950.000.12
St. BonaventureA100.000.2950.0054.450.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.2475.0056.120.000.03
LehighPat0.000.2466.6751.580.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.230.0036.070.00-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.23100.0061.010.000.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2225.0045.730.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.2166.6749.940.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.210.0048.110.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.190.0030.910.00-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.190.0037.310.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.180.0021.970.00-0.10
BrownIvy0.000.18100.0039.270.00-0.04
ColgatePat0.000.1850.0050.310.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.1850.0042.160.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.180.0030.230.00-0.07
PennIvy0.000.1833.3349.350.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.170.0061.460.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.170.0033.700.00-0.06
VermontAE0.000.1766.6774.120.000.08
HarvardIvy0.000.1533.3354.200.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1575.0064.570.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.1550.0053.620.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1566.6773.200.000.07
PrincetonIvy0.000.150.0051.010.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.1533.3326.430.00-0.07
CornellIvy2.080.1433.3334.68-0.69-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0029.620.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.120.0041.210.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.1275.0051.210.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1233.3333.580.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1233.3359.680.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.1250.0042.730.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1233.3339.360.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.12100.0078.990.000.07
Loyola MDPat0.000.120.0038.210.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.120.0027.250.00-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1233.3350.350.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.1233.3350.840.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0050.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0074.140.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0066.990.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.1033.3333.620.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0925.0040.490.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0933.3336.170.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.090.0031.380.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0966.6762.150.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0966.6765.630.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0067.460.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6767.320.000.03
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
Boston UniversityPat2.080.090.0047.69-2.08-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.09100.0066.010.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0058.070.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.09100.0064.120.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.910.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0022.610.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.090.0064.600.000.03
MaineAE0.000.090.0013.450.00-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0966.6768.790.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0925.0035.000.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0056.360.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0028.170.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0766.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.070.0024.440.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0733.3338.880.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.07100.0048.130.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0033.930.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0733.3327.100.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA4.170.070.0031.81-4.17-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC2.080.0633.3357.84-0.690.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0044.830.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.060.0032.200.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0633.3331.290.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.06100.0039.920.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0650.0052.870.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.06100.0044.740.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0046.410.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0333.3351.560.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.030.0031.910.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC2.080.0350.0050.190.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3336.610.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6749.100.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0078.910.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0033.850.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0037.120.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC2.080.030.0050.36-2.080.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01