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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:105.1
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:170
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:3-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-431.20.04%
26-540.00.33%
25-646.71.51%
24-755.73.39%
23-866.27.67%
22-977.312.40%
21-1089.716.90%
20-11103.517.82%
19-12116.816.03%
18-13133.211.46%
17-14148.56.49%
16-15165.23.60%
15-16182.41.66%
14-17201.40.50%
13-18212.60.14%
12-19236.70.03%
11-20264.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Florida St. (35.9)ACCA99-78L0%0.0
11-20Nevada (46.2)MWCA91-76L0%0.0
11-24Drake (308.2)MVCN64-53W100%0.0
11-25Weber St. (209.7)BSkyN54-76W100%0.0
11-26Nevada (46.2)MWCN75-73W100%0.0
12-2Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACA65-79W100%0.0
12-4Niagara (266.5)MAACH58-74L0%0.0
12-7Fairleigh Dickinson (254.8)NECA0-071%6.5
12-10Ohio (88.0)MACH0-052%0.8
12-14NJIT (186.5)ASunH0-076%8.4
12-21UC Santa Barbara (269.9)BWN0-076%8.4
12-22Towson (154.9)CAAN0-055%1.6
12-28Delaware (225.1)CAAA0-061%3.4
12-31Marist (246.8)MAACH0-088%13.9
1-2Fairfield (164.8)MAACA0-052%0.7
1-6Monmouth (66.9)MAACA0-031%-5.8
1-8Canisius (198.8)MAACH0-078%9.5
1-14Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACA0-069%6.0
1-17Manhattan (261.3)MAACA0-070%6.5
1-20Fairfield (164.8)MAACH0-072%7.0
1-23Quinnipiac (254.3)MAACH0-085%12.2
1-27Siena (144.9)MAACA0-048%-0.7
1-29Saint Peter's (191.1)MAACH0-074%7.8
2-3Rider (198.1)MAACA0-058%2.5
2-7Siena (144.9)MAACH0-068%5.5
2-12Niagara (266.5)MAACA0-068%5.5
2-14Canisius (198.8)MAACA0-061%3.2
2-17Marist (246.8)MAACA0-074%7.7
2-19Rider (198.1)MAACH0-077%8.7
2-24Manhattan (261.3)MAACH0-086%12.7
2-26Monmouth (66.9)MAACH0-051%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC29.1326.4162.8666.447.498.68
MaristMAAC0.454.2044.4435.66-0.05-1.21
ManhattanMAAC0.514.2022.2232.70-0.28-1.45
Saint Peter'sMAAC7.144.2066.6753.572.380.30
CanisiusMAAC0.004.1837.5045.38-0.00-0.39
MonmouthMAAC0.004.1877.7873.150.001.93
RiderMAAC0.004.1857.1452.050.000.17
SienaMAAC0.004.1833.3350.58-0.000.05
NiagaraMAAC7.144.1814.2933.65-5.10-1.37
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.1728.5738.56-0.00-0.95
FairfieldMAAC0.004.1762.5057.230.000.60
NevadaMWC14.293.2885.7173.2710.201.53
TowsonCAA0.001.7542.8654.12-0.000.14
DelawareCAA0.001.7250.0041.800.00-0.28
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.511.6916.6740.38-0.34-0.33
Florida St.ACC7.141.6687.5066.385.360.55
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.660.0034.08-0.00-0.53
DrakeMVC7.141.610.0020.96-7.14-0.94
NJITASun0.001.6144.4452.60-0.000.08
OhioMAC0.001.6183.3372.380.000.72
Weber St.BSky7.141.6120.0051.70-4.290.05
DrexelCAA0.450.3250.0041.460.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC1.840.2433.3352.03-0.610.01
WagnerNEC0.000.2228.5752.65-0.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2212.5026.05-0.00-0.10
HofstraCAA0.000.2155.5643.870.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.450.1950.0043.770.00-0.02
FordhamA100.510.1950.0041.640.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1662.5054.660.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1642.8650.57-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.1670.0070.530.000.07
HartfordAE0.450.1622.2226.44-0.25-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.000.1637.5047.44-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.1662.5071.400.000.07
AlbanyAE0.000.1642.8660.66-0.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1675.0070.350.000.06
LipscombASun0.510.1411.1132.47-0.40-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.1457.1454.200.000.01
BradleyMVC0.790.1437.5025.74-0.20-0.07
ArmyPat0.000.1442.8650.29-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1375.0050.980.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.600.1357.1443.930.09-0.02
UC DavisBW1.190.1250.0045.660.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1144.4438.15-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1144.4453.29-0.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1142.8650.98-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.1175.0054.480.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1157.1471.170.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1162.5060.090.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1125.0030.02-0.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1162.5052.400.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1166.6761.690.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.1112.5030.17-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1144.4443.25-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1183.3377.290.000.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3346.06-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.760.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.110.0020.72-0.00-0.06
TempleAmer0.400.1175.0064.820.200.03
Boston UniversityPat0.510.1142.8655.07-0.070.01
Notre DameACC0.000.11100.0076.970.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.1057.1448.110.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.1050.0056.890.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.1028.5730.43-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.1090.0080.060.000.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1062.5058.130.000.02
PacificWCC0.790.1042.8645.98-0.11-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1060.0069.260.000.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1050.0040.690.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1062.5042.780.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1037.5038.08-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0912.5029.77-0.00-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.0922.2246.51-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3340.37-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0937.5028.47-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0830.0045.49-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.510.0842.8635.40-0.07-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0842.8645.85-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0828.5731.07-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.450.0887.5050.250.330.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0820.0035.15-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.030.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0857.1433.200.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0825.0041.19-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.400.0855.5642.150.04-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.910.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0862.5062.080.000.02
DetroitHorz0.400.080.0021.30-0.40-0.04
WinthropBSth0.400.0850.0071.340.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0064.910.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.56-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0625.0043.29-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.680.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0053.130.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0031.31-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0628.5727.38-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.900.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1149.12-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.49-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.49-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.420.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5043.19-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0633.3356.66-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.370.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.400.0588.8966.920.310.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0542.8643.78-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0092.200.000.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.78-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0514.2923.40-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.90-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0571.4360.090.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0540.0039.19-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0542.8658.24-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0514.2942.77-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0588.8977.470.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.220.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.790.0525.0045.82-0.40-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0571.4358.170.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0056.270.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0577.7866.740.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0020.63-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.790.0585.7177.000.570.03
Oregon St.P120.790.0525.0023.62-0.40-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0520.0060.00-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0566.6770.400.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.790.05100.0089.590.790.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.180.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.050.0026.22-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0575.0055.480.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0585.7169.920.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0562.5071.850.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.140.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0566.6753.730.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.980.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.450.0533.3331.35-0.15-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0585.7183.250.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5067.080.000.01
DenverSum0.600.0342.8645.65-0.09-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.92-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1120.27-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.600.0342.8633.51-0.09-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.88-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.30-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.15-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0385.7153.770.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.600.0366.6758.600.200.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.650.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0076.400.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0357.1457.780.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0050.170.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5030.11-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.600.0371.4337.680.26-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.17-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
South DakotaSum0.600.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0040.17-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.88-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.600.0355.5649.660.07-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.03-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0357.1456.540.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.860.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.490.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.190.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.400.0320.0038.50-0.24-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
IllinoisB100.400.0366.6751.140.130.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0048.980.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.400.0320.0017.37-0.24-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00