Iona

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	46.0
Current RPI:	57
Expected SOS:	151
Current SOS:	159
Current Record:	19-5
Expected Record:	24-6
Current Conf Record:	11-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	55.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	26
Expected OOC SOS:	51

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-5	37.6	32.12%
24-6	45.7	43.44%
23-7	55.3	19.57%
22-8	66.9	4.49%
21-9	78.1	0.36%
20-10	92.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	Purdue (65.0)	B10	N	90-91	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	N	94-88	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	N	63-89	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	H	104-99	W	100%	0.0
11-28	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	100-84	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	57-69	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	62-98	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	78-80	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	82-63	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Richmond (135.3)	A10	A	79-88	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	72-73	W	100%	0.0
12-21	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	A	65-83	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	83-75	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	N	95-59	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	73-61	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	76-100	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	72-75	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	74-63	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	91-71	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	65-62	L	0%	0.0
1-27	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	62-71	W	100%	0.0
1-29	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	40-64	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	105-86	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	73-85	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	0-0		63%	3.6
2-12	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	0-0		98%	22.7
2-15	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	0-0		83%	10.4
2-18	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	H	0-0		77%	8.2
2-24	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	0-0		84%	10.8
2-26	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	0-0		98%	22.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Iona	MAAC	26.43	26.34	83.06	82.87	17.48	17.32
Siena	MAAC	4.74	4.28	45.00	45.22	-0.47	-0.41
Manhattan	MAAC	4.88	4.26	69.57	70.39	1.91	1.74
Niagara	MAAC	4.80	4.26	40.91	44.40	-0.87	-0.48
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.89	4.26	22.73	26.26	-1.58	-2.02
Rider	MAAC	2.81	4.23	39.13	40.59	-0.61	-0.80
Canisius	MAAC	4.75	4.23	19.05	21.27	-2.94	-2.43
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.89	4.23	80.95	77.51	1.79	2.33
Marist	MAAC	2.88	4.20	36.36	35.83	-0.79	-1.19
Fairfield	MAAC	2.80	4.17	57.14	57.73	0.40	0.64
Vermont	AE	2.27	1.86	62.50	64.57	0.57	0.54
Hofstra	CAA	2.21	1.83	29.17	33.24	-0.92	-0.61
Long Island	NEC	2.21	1.78	73.91	73.50	1.06	0.83
Richmond	A10	2.17	1.75	52.17	50.10	0.09	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.13	1.72	65.22	64.57	0.65	0.50
William & Mary	CAA	2.13	1.72	13.04	13.91	-1.57	-1.24
Purdue	B10	2.13	1.69	63.64	59.27	0.58	0.31
Western Michigan	MAC	2.13	1.69	42.86	44.44	-0.30	-0.19
Denver	SB	2.08	1.67	73.91	74.81	1.00	0.83
Marshall	CUSA	2.08	1.67	57.14	58.28	0.30	0.28
Maryland	ACC	2.08	1.67	61.90	52.57	0.50	0.09
Nevada	WAC	0.00	1.67	80.95	78.42	0.00	0.95
Drexel	CAA	0.31	0.30	79.17	78.10	0.18	0.17
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.36	0.28	60.00	59.06	0.07	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.22	0.28	13.64	16.35	-0.16	-0.19
Binghamton	AE	0.30	0.25	0.00	4.02	-0.30	-0.23
New Hampshire	AE	0.22	0.23	35.00	38.58	-0.07	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.26	0.22	60.00	58.29	0.05	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.22	0.22	17.39	20.97	-0.14	-0.13
James Madison	CAA	0.30	0.22	40.00	40.18	-0.06	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.22	0.22	39.13	36.10	-0.05	-0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.28	0.20	26.09	28.60	-0.13	-0.08
Buffalo	MAC	0.22	0.19	68.42	66.45	0.08	0.06
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.22	0.19	56.52	57.15	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.18	0.19	60.00	60.42	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.22	0.19	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.17	0.16	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.26	0.16	40.91	34.50	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.23	0.16	77.27	75.06	0.12	0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.14	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	73.91	75.00	0.07	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.19	0.14	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	69.57	61.31	0.05	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.14	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.14	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.14	73.91	68.58	0.09	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.13	0.14	8.70	12.13	-0.11	-0.10
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.14	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.14	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.21	0.14	80.00	78.06	0.13	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.17	0.14	76.00	72.50	0.09	0.06
Towson	CAA	0.21	0.14	4.00	5.26	-0.19	-0.12
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.11	95.83	92.57	0.08	0.10
South Dakota	Sum	0.18	0.11	26.32	28.83	-0.09	-0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.08	0.11	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.11	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.14	0.11	8.70	13.10	-0.11	-0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.11	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.11	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.04	0.11	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.11	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.11	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.11	72.73	64.43	0.06	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.11	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.11	70.83	68.82	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.11	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.09	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.09	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.09	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.05
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	85.71	82.18	0.06	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.09	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.08	30.43	29.50	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.08	71.43	69.05	0.04	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.08	73.91	74.91	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.08	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.12	0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.08	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.08	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.08	27.27	27.21	-0.06	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.08	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.08	5.26	7.30	-0.08	-0.07
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.08	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.04	0.08	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.08	82.61	84.57	0.08	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.08	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.08	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.05
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.08	91.30	87.18	0.11	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.08	33.33	38.38	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.08	73.91	75.49	0.06	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.08	21.74	22.76	-0.07	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.08	20.83	20.60	-0.05	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.08	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.00	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.00	0.06	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.00	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.00	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.00	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.00	0.06	27.27	26.95	-0.00	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.09	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.04	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.06	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.04	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.08	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.04	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.06	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.09	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.03	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.02	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.05	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.05	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
American	Pat	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.05	27.27	23.80	-0.04	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.05	90.48	87.91	0.07	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.05	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.04	0.05	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.05	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.00	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.00	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.00	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.00	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.00	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.00	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.00	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.00	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.00	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.00	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.00	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.00	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.04	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.04	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.04	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.00	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.04	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.04	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.04	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.04	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.00	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.04	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.04	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.04	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.00	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.04	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.04	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.03	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.04	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.04	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.04	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01