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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:159
Current Record:22-12
Expected Record:22-12
Current Conf Record:15-8
Expected Conf Record:15-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1289.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Florida St. (14.0)ACCA99-78L0%0.0
11-20Nevada (29.0)MWCA91-76L0%0.0
11-24Drake (314.0)MVCN64-53W100%0.0
11-25Weber St. (185.0)BSkyN54-76W100%0.0
11-26Nevada (29.0)MWCN75-73W100%0.0
12-2Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA65-79W100%0.0
12-4Niagara (275.0)MAACH58-74L0%0.0
12-7Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA73-90W100%0.0
12-10Ohio (117.0)MACH79-75W100%0.0
12-14NJIT (290.0)ASunH94-80W100%0.0
12-21UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWN57-73W100%0.0
12-22Towson (88.0)CAAN69-76L0%0.0
12-28Delaware (235.0)CAAA63-54L0%0.0
12-31Marist (276.0)MAACH93-80W100%0.0
1-2Fairfield (180.0)MAACA93-87L0%0.0
1-6Monmouth (49.0)MAACA92-74L0%0.0
1-8Canisius (171.0)MAACH98-75W100%0.0
1-14Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA97-91L0%0.0
1-17Manhattan (263.0)MAACA67-82W100%0.0
1-20Fairfield (180.0)MAACH96-89W100%0.0
1-23Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH84-74W100%0.0
1-27Siena (122.0)MAACA66-77W100%0.0
1-29Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH69-66W100%0.0
2-3Rider (198.0)MAACA76-95W100%0.0
2-7Siena (122.0)MAACH79-81L0%0.0
2-12Niagara (275.0)MAACA76-90W100%0.0
2-14Canisius (171.0)MAACA89-83L0%0.0
2-17Marist (276.0)MAACA88-95W100%0.0
2-19Rider (198.0)MAACH85-103L0%0.0
2-24Manhattan (263.0)MAACH72-51W100%0.0
2-26Monmouth (49.0)MAACH73-79L0%0.0
3-4Rider (198.0)MAACN88-70W100%0.0
3-5Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACN65-73W100%0.0
3-6Siena (122.0)MAACA86-87W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC26.5526.5567.0767.079.079.07
SienaMAAC5.425.4251.6151.610.170.17
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.395.3965.5265.521.671.67
RiderMAAC5.375.3756.6756.670.720.72
CanisiusMAAC4.014.0154.8454.840.390.39
MonmouthMAAC4.014.0180.6580.652.462.46
NiagaraMAAC3.993.9929.0329.03-1.67-1.67
ManhattanMAAC3.983.9833.3333.33-1.33-1.33
MaristMAAC3.963.9626.6726.67-1.85-1.85
FairfieldMAAC3.953.9553.5753.570.280.28
QuinnipiacMAAC3.943.9431.0331.03-1.49-1.49
NevadaMWC2.992.9984.3884.382.062.06
TowsonCAA1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
DelawareCAA1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Florida St.ACC1.521.5275.0075.000.760.76
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.511.5119.2319.23-0.93-0.93
DrakeMVC1.471.4721.4321.43-0.84-0.84
NJITASun1.471.4732.1432.14-0.53-0.53
OhioMAC1.471.4765.5265.520.460.46
Weber St.BSky1.471.4758.6258.620.250.25
DrexelCAA0.300.3025.8125.81-0.14-0.14
WagnerNEC0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
HofstraCAA0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.2110.0010.00-0.17-0.17
FordhamA100.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
BrownIvy0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
HartfordAE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.160.1684.8584.850.110.11
AlbanyAE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
BradleyMVC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
ArmyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
PacificWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
ClemsonACC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.040.0431.2531.25-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
MemphisAmer0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0421.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.040.0478.5778.570.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0473.3373.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.040.0412.9012.90-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
WashingtonP120.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00