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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Iona

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:44.8
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:59
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:87



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-111.20.12%
29-217.01.10%
28-320.74.03%
27-425.79.96%
26-532.216.95%
25-639.221.56%
24-748.219.33%
23-857.613.96%
22-969.37.76%
21-1081.53.53%
20-1195.01.18%
19-12107.60.36%
18-13113.90.14%
17-14136.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Iona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cleveland St. (147.4)HorzH78-73W100%0.0
11-18Wofford (56.8)SCA86-73L0%0.0
11-21Wake Forest (92.9)ACCA81-85W100%0.0
11-23North Texas (223.0)CUSAA58-78W100%0.0
11-26Delaware St. (276.9)MEACH126-76W100%0.0
11-30Arkansas (23.2)SECA0-024%-8.4
12-7Monmouth (184.3)MAACA0-072%6.8
12-10Rider (209.8)MAACH0-092%16.6
12-13Indiana St. (185.9)MVCH0-090%15.1
12-20George Mason (226.8)A10A0-082%10.9
12-23Florida Gulf Coast (82.3)ASunH0-076%8.3
12-28Drexel (223.8)CAAA0-079%9.8
12-30Massachusetts (41.1)A10A0-041%-2.7
1-4Siena (133.8)MAACA0-063%4.0
1-6Quinnipiac (169.2)MAACH0-087%13.5
1-10Canisius (151.1)MAACH0-087%13.6
1-13Fairfield (256.9)MAACH0-096%21.1
1-16Niagara (272.7)MAACA0-088%14.2
1-18Canisius (151.1)MAACA0-070%6.4
1-22Rider (209.8)MAACA0-078%9.4
1-25Niagara (272.7)MAACH0-096%21.4
1-31Saint Peter's (234.0)MAACH0-091%16.4
2-2Fairfield (256.9)MAACA0-088%13.9
2-6Siena (133.8)MAACH0-082%11.2
2-8Marist (276.4)MAACH0-095%19.7
2-13Manhattan (206.0)MAACA0-073%7.5
2-15Quinnipiac (169.2)MAACA0-070%6.4
2-20Marist (276.4)MAACA0-085%12.6
2-22Monmouth (184.3)MAACH0-088%14.0
2-27Manhattan (206.0)MAACH0-089%14.6
3-1Saint Peter's (234.0)MAACA0-078%9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Iona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Iona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Iona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
IonaMAAC30.5826.4086.9683.2622.6117.56
ManhattanMAAC0.004.2625.0050.77-0.000.07
MaristMAAC0.004.2420.0034.81-0.00-1.29
FairfieldMAAC1.004.2440.0034.15-0.20-1.34
CanisiusMAAC0.004.2350.0055.060.000.43
SienaMAAC0.004.2333.3364.03-0.001.19
MonmouthMAAC0.004.2250.0054.350.000.37
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.2120.0043.60-0.00-0.54
NiagaraMAAC0.004.2133.3331.84-0.00-1.53
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.2150.0058.240.000.69
RiderMAAC0.004.2150.0049.200.00-0.07
MassachusettsA100.001.8483.3366.860.000.62
ArkansasSEC2.081.70100.0079.892.081.01
George MasonA100.001.6920.0021.85-0.00-0.95
Delaware St.MEAC11.251.6933.3341.09-3.75-0.30
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.6980.0073.470.000.79
North TexasCUSA11.251.67100.0040.2511.25-0.32
Wake ForestACC10.001.6780.0053.326.000.11
WoffordSC10.001.6775.0076.625.000.89
Cleveland St.Horz10.001.6133.3350.88-3.330.03
DrexelCAA0.001.6120.0037.27-0.00-0.41
Indiana St.MVC0.001.6175.0044.930.00-0.16
St. BonaventureA100.000.2575.0052.090.000.01
PennIvy1.250.240.0023.29-1.25-0.13
FordhamA100.000.240.0026.01-0.00-0.12
CornellIvy0.000.2242.8640.94-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.2250.0063.440.000.06
HartfordAE0.000.2280.0051.800.000.01
La SalleA100.000.22100.0056.620.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.1980.0066.690.000.06
BucknellPat0.000.1933.3335.82-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1760.0057.880.000.03
LehighPat0.000.1720.0042.40-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.1750.0065.840.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1625.0037.52-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1660.0039.490.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.160.0030.79-0.00-0.06
RutgersB100.000.1650.0024.520.00-0.08
BuffaloMAC0.000.1475.0064.180.000.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1416.6739.87-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1466.6761.870.000.03
DukeACC0.000.13100.0083.600.000.09
ElonCAA0.000.1140.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1175.0046.370.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1180.0057.990.000.02
VCUA100.000.1180.0073.080.000.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1125.0053.31-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1140.0031.26-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.000.1125.0036.44-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1140.0038.71-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.11100.0060.350.000.02
RichmondA100.000.1150.0064.050.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.110.0045.08-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.11100.0069.720.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1140.0038.08-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0925.0027.83-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0975.0077.520.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0940.0053.46-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0019.74-0.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0077.900.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0980.0074.520.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0975.0056.120.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0820.0042.29-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0840.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0866.6756.860.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0820.0038.01-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0875.0069.280.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0820.0034.26-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0833.3335.00-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0871.4357.180.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.000.0850.0065.310.000.02
South DakotaSum1.000.080.0038.82-1.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0820.0031.47-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0875.0071.150.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.08100.0065.430.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0051.96-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0073.600.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0065.300.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.58-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3330.11-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0045.69-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0052.52-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.50-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0030.90-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0056.00-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0042.970.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0058.990.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.060.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.390.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0024.98-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0068.330.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.230.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.930.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0040.810.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0049.570.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6750.870.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6747.140.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0072.490.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3329.25-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0044.930.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.83-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0022.97-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0625.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.64-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0058.400.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.830.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.77-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0066.080.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.23-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0019.27-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0614.2931.08-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0633.3354.15-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.040.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.44-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.760.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.64-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC1.250.0640.0033.60-0.25-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.63-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0058.520.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0065.760.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.63-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.550.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.05100.0079.800.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd2.080.050.0031.85-2.08-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.05100.0054.340.000.00
LouisvilleACC1.250.05100.0079.151.250.03
ArmyPat0.000.05100.0069.410.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.050.0023.00-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0580.0076.610.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0533.3339.40-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.05100.0064.150.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0025.37-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0050.770.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0550.0064.920.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.05100.0049.260.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0560.0055.990.000.01
MarylandB100.000.05100.0071.860.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0052.920.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.05100.0045.580.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0036.41-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0583.3369.220.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0550.0051.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0044.110.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6751.430.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3354.73-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.810.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0030.92-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0071.480.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.100.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.970.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.110.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.81-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.830.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.610.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.250.030.0015.65-1.25-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0061.400.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.410.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0042.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0068.13-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.520.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0028.760.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0041.79-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.670.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6753.550.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.42-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC1.250.0325.0031.71-0.62-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0029.79-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0066.35-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0375.0064.910.000.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.060.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.89-0.00-0.02
StanfordP121.000.0380.0070.970.600.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.320.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0026.31-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.430.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.550.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.000.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.970.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.440.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0062.480.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.070.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.830.0325.0036.66-0.42-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0375.0067.420.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0048.64-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0066.690.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0044.18-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0068.140.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
TulaneAmer0.830.0366.6739.850.28-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.830.0325.0052.61-0.420.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.810.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0036.000.00-0.01