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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:203.0
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:299
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:260
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13203.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Canisius (180.0)MAACA64-60L0%0.0
11-17Siena (261.0)MAACA76-84W100%0.0
11-22Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A68-60L0%0.0
11-26Bryant (189.0)NECH73-47W100%0.0
11-30Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA89-73L0%0.0
12-3Hartford (244.0)AEH81-69W100%0.0
12-6Harvard (52.0)IvyH52-64L0%0.0
12-14Wagner (294.0)NECH61-47W100%0.0
12-18Yale (64.0)IvyH56-57L0%0.0
12-21Saint Louis (272.0)A10A58-55L0%0.0
12-30USC (207.0)P12A64-56L0%0.0
1-2UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA64-57L0%0.0
1-7Maine (339.0)AEA54-68W100%0.0
1-10Stony Brook (107.0)AEH71-57W100%0.0
1-14Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH55-52W100%0.0
1-17UMBC (346.0)AEA54-71W100%0.0
1-19Binghamton (332.0)AEH64-44W100%0.0
1-22New Hampshire (193.0)AEA73-68L0%0.0
1-25UMass Lowell (266.0)AEA50-61W100%0.0
1-28Albany (99.0)AEH44-47L0%0.0
1-31Hartford (244.0)AEA46-65W100%0.0
2-3Maine (339.0)AEH68-49W100%0.0
2-7Stony Brook (107.0)AEA48-57W100%0.0
2-11UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH96-53W100%0.0
2-14UMBC (346.0)AEH74-51W100%0.0
2-18Binghamton (332.0)AEA57-55L0%0.0
2-25New Hampshire (193.0)AEH64-49W100%0.0
2-28Albany (99.0)AEA79-73L0%0.0
3-4UMBC (346.0)AEH66-39W100%0.0
3-8Stony Brook (107.0)AEH77-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE26.4926.4957.6957.694.084.08
Stony BrookAE5.985.9868.9768.972.272.27
UMBCAE5.835.8314.8114.81-4.10-4.10
AlbanyAE4.504.5073.3373.332.102.10
New HampshireAE4.384.3859.2659.260.810.81
HartfordAE4.364.3648.1548.15-0.16-0.16
MaineAE4.364.3610.7110.71-3.42-3.42
BinghamtonAE4.304.3014.2914.29-3.07-3.07
UMass LowellAE4.244.2442.3142.31-0.65-0.65
DartmouthIvy2.042.0451.8551.850.080.08
YaleIvy1.981.9865.5265.520.620.62
QuinnipiacMAAC1.971.9748.2848.28-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC1.871.8753.3353.330.120.12
CanisiusMAAC1.851.8551.7251.720.060.06
HarvardIvy1.841.8473.0873.080.850.85
SienaMAAC1.831.8336.6736.67-0.49-0.49
WagnerNEC1.781.7832.1432.14-0.63-0.63
Saint Joseph'sA101.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Saint LouisA101.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.671.6755.1755.170.170.17
USCP121.671.6735.4835.48-0.48-0.48
NJITind0.480.4856.0056.000.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.390.3940.0040.00-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.360.3644.4444.44-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.350.3541.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.340.3445.1645.16-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.320.3237.9337.93-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.300.3026.6726.67-0.14-0.14
PennIvy0.290.2932.1432.14-0.10-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.290.2940.6240.62-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.2516.1316.13-0.17-0.17
RiderMAAC0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
St. BonaventureA100.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
MaristMAAC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.12-0.12
FairfieldMAAC0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
Loyola MDPat0.220.2236.6736.67-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
IonaMAAC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
Holy CrossPat0.170.1744.8344.83-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.170.1770.0070.000.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
George WashingtonA100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
La SalleA100.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Oregon St.P120.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
WashingtonP120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
BucknellPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00