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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:101.0
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:225
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:16-2
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10101.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H64-74L0%0.0
11-12Siena (193.0)MAACH77-66W100%0.0
11-16Bryant (177.0)NECA87-64L0%0.0
11-18Providence (40.0)BEA70-49L0%0.0
11-21Wagner (218.0)NECA68-61L0%0.0
11-24Duke (9.0)ACCA91-90L0%0.0
11-27Illinois St. (134.0)MVCN76-87W100%0.0
11-29San Francisco (68.0)WCCA72-61L0%0.0
12-15Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH67-80L0%0.0
12-18UMass Lowell (283.0)AEA48-62W100%0.0
12-21Harvard (46.0)IvyA74-68L0%0.0
1-4Dartmouth (266.0)IvyA53-62W100%0.0
1-8Yale (147.0)IvyA59-67W100%0.0
1-11Albany (185.0)AEH68-38W100%0.0
1-16Maine (330.0)AEA46-83W100%0.0
1-18UMBC (327.0)AEA47-73W100%0.0
1-20New Hampshire (340.0)AEH57-40W100%0.0
1-24Stony Brook (165.0)AEA67-64L0%0.0
1-26Binghamton (325.0)AEH72-39W100%0.0
1-29Hartford (234.0)AEA60-67W100%0.0
2-1Albany (185.0)AEA45-55W100%0.0
2-4Maine (330.0)AEH93-65W100%0.0
2-12UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH83-58W100%0.0
2-15UMBC (327.0)AEH76-52W100%0.0
2-19New Hampshire (340.0)AEA44-79W100%0.0
2-23Hartford (234.0)AEH72-47W100%0.0
2-27Stony Brook (165.0)AEH69-53W100%0.0
3-2Binghamton (325.0)AEA82-92W100%0.0
3-8New Hampshire (340.0)AEN77-60W100%0.0
3-9Albany (185.0)AEA67-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE26.5026.5072.4672.4611.9011.90
AlbanyAE6.046.0458.6258.621.041.04
New HampshireAE5.925.9219.2319.23-3.64-3.64
HartfordAE4.434.4354.8454.840.430.43
Stony BrookAE4.424.4270.0070.001.771.77
MaineAE4.354.3519.2319.23-2.68-2.68
BinghamtonAE4.334.3325.0025.00-2.16-2.16
UMBCAE4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
UMass LowellAE4.244.2436.0036.00-1.19-1.19
DartmouthIvy2.072.0740.0040.00-0.41-0.41
YaleIvy2.052.0553.8553.850.160.16
BryantNEC1.931.9353.3353.330.130.13
QuinnipiacMAAC1.911.9163.3363.330.510.51
SienaMAAC1.821.8248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy1.821.8285.7185.711.301.30
ProvidenceBE1.761.7666.6766.670.590.59
Saint Joseph'sA101.751.7571.8871.880.760.76
Illinois St.MVC1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
San FranciscoWCC1.691.6962.0762.070.410.41
WagnerNEC1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
DukeACC1.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
BrownIvy0.520.5251.8551.850.020.02
NJITind0.480.4836.0036.00-0.14-0.14
CornellIvy0.320.323.703.70-0.29-0.29
DuquesneA100.310.3141.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.300.3034.4834.48-0.09-0.09
ColumbiaIvy0.300.3060.0060.000.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.290.2959.3859.380.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.280.2841.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.2816.1316.13-0.19-0.19
La SalleA100.260.2648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.240.2428.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Loyola MDPat0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.180.1870.3770.370.070.07
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
St. BonaventureA100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
St. John'sBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
TowsonCAA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
George WashingtonA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
MarquetteBE0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.08-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
LehighPat0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
AmericanPat0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01