Vermont

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	134.0
Current RPI:	134
Expected SOS:	230
Current SOS:	230
Current Record:	21-11
Expected Record:	21-11
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	116
Expected OOC SOS:	197

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-11	134.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	53-54	W	100%
11-13	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	A	67-49	L	0%
11-17	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	55-66	W	100%
11-21	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	65-52	W	100%
11-27	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	78-85	W	100%
12-1	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	A	76-66	L	0%
12-5	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	64-68	L	0%
12-8	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	46-53	W	100%
12-12	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	52-50	W	100%
12-16	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	68-58	L	0%
12-22	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	76-62	W	100%
12-29	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	50-62	L	0%
1-2	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	51-64	W	100%
1-5	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	70-45	W	100%
1-8	Boston University (148.0)	AE	A	63-53	L	0%
1-12	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	68-53	W	100%
1-16	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	61-37	W	100%
1-18	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	81-73	W	100%
1-22	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	71-68	L	0%
1-26	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	43-50	W	100%
1-30	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	43-49	W	100%
2-6	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	63-48	W	100%
2-9	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	55-67	W	100%
2-12	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	59-64	L	0%
2-15	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	65-48	L	0%
2-20	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	73-61	W	100%
2-23	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	87-79	W	100%
2-28	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	61-78	W	100%
3-3	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	58-61	L	0%
3-9	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	N	61-42	W	100%
3-10	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	N	85-72	W	100%
3-16	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	49-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Vermont	AE	26.56	26.56	66.03	66.03	8.51	8.51
Albany	AE	5.70	5.70	74.19	74.19	2.76	2.76
MD Baltimore County	AE	5.63	5.63	25.93	25.93	-2.71	-2.71
New Hampshire	AE	5.60	5.60	32.00	32.00	-2.01	-2.01
Hartford	AE	4.19	4.19	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
Stony Brook	AE	4.19	4.19	78.57	78.57	2.39	2.39
Maine	AE	4.18	4.18	33.33	33.33	-1.39	-1.39
Boston University	AE	4.11	4.11	55.56	55.56	0.46	0.46
Binghamton	AE	4.06	4.06	7.41	7.41	-3.46	-3.46
Canisius	MAAC	1.84	1.84	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.84	1.84	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	1.81	1.81	42.86	42.86	-0.26	-0.26
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.81	1.81	30.77	30.77	-0.70	-0.70
Siena	MAAC	1.81	1.81	25.81	25.81	-0.88	-0.88
Harvard	Ivy	1.75	1.75	69.23	69.23	0.67	0.67
Connecticut	BE	1.75	1.75	65.52	65.52	0.54	0.54
Niagara	MAAC	1.74	1.74	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Northeastern	CAA	1.70	1.70	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Towson	CAA	1.69	1.69	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.64	1.64	23.33	23.33	-0.87	-0.87
College of Charleston	SC	1.59	1.59	71.88	71.88	0.69	0.69
Rhode Island	A10	1.56	1.56	25.00	25.00	-0.78	-0.78
Brown	Ivy	0.48	0.48	44.44	44.44	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.40	0.40	65.62	65.62	0.13	0.13
Marist	MAAC	0.35	0.35	32.26	32.26	-0.13	-0.13
Cornell	Ivy	0.33	0.33	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.31	0.31	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.31	0.31	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.30	0.30	29.03	29.03	-0.13	-0.13
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.28	0.28	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Holy Cross	Pat	0.27	0.27	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.26	0.26	34.38	34.38	-0.08	-0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.26	0.26	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.22	0.22	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.19	0.19	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	14.29	14.29	-0.10	-0.10
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.13	0.13	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.13	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01