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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:126.0
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:182
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13126.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA70-50L0%0.0
11-15Purdue (15.0)B10A107-79L0%0.0
11-18Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH83-70W100%0.0
11-21Niagara (315.0)MAACN67-85W100%0.0
11-22Buffalo (90.0)MACN77-71L0%0.0
11-25Florida (55.0)SECA86-62L0%0.0
11-29Marist (318.0)MAACH86-60W100%0.0
12-2Dartmouth (284.0)IvyA63-68W100%0.0
12-5Yale (44.0)IvyA72-54L0%0.0
12-8St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A80-68L0%0.0
12-16UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH75-68W100%0.0
12-22Northeastern (109.0)CAAA77-65L0%0.0
12-29Siena (104.0)MAACH73-64W100%0.0
1-3Harvard (193.0)IvyA62-65W100%0.0
1-6Maine (317.0)AEA72-90W100%0.0
1-9Albany (107.0)AEH57-69L0%0.0
1-16Hartford (292.0)AEA68-83W100%0.0
1-18UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH82-93L0%0.0
1-21Binghamton (299.0)AEA52-61W100%0.0
1-24UMBC (335.0)AEH79-72W100%0.0
1-27New Hampshire (177.0)AEA50-66W100%0.0
1-30Stony Brook (59.0)AEH61-72L0%0.0
2-3Maine (317.0)AEH85-68W100%0.0
2-6Albany (107.0)AEA75-71L0%0.0
2-8UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA100-93L0%0.0
2-14Hartford (292.0)AEH92-81W100%0.0
2-17Binghamton (299.0)AEH78-64W100%0.0
2-20UMBC (335.0)AEA54-99W100%0.0
2-24New Hampshire (177.0)AEH73-67W100%0.0
2-27Stony Brook (59.0)AEA62-76W100%0.0
3-2Maine (317.0)AEH99-82W100%0.0
3-7New Hampshire (177.0)AEH63-56W100%0.0
3-12Stony Brook (59.0)AEA80-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE26.5326.5363.9563.957.407.40
Stony BrookAE5.475.4781.4881.483.443.44
New HampshireAE5.425.4265.3865.381.671.67
MaineAE5.405.4029.6329.63-2.20-2.20
HartfordAE4.124.1230.0030.00-1.65-1.65
AlbanyAE4.064.0672.4172.411.821.82
BinghamtonAE4.014.0128.5728.57-1.72-1.72
UMBCAE3.973.9723.3323.33-2.12-2.12
UMass LowellAE3.883.8830.7730.77-1.49-1.49
DartmouthIvy1.851.8534.6234.62-0.57-0.57
QuinnipiacMAAC1.831.8331.0331.03-0.69-0.69
NiagaraMAAC1.781.7822.5822.58-0.98-0.98
SienaMAAC1.741.7465.6265.620.540.54
MaristMAAC1.741.7424.1424.14-0.90-0.90
YaleIvy1.721.7276.9276.920.930.93
HarvardIvy1.651.6544.4444.44-0.18-0.18
BuffaloMAC1.641.6456.2556.250.210.21
St. BonaventureA101.641.6472.4172.410.730.73
NortheasternCAA1.621.6251.6151.610.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
PurdueB101.541.5475.7675.760.790.79
FloridaSEC1.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.521.5258.6258.620.260.26
BrownIvy0.370.3725.9325.93-0.18-0.18
CornellIvy0.340.3433.3333.33-0.11-0.11
Holy CrossPat0.330.3342.4242.42-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.310.3154.8454.840.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.290.2942.4242.42-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.270.2739.3939.39-0.06-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.260.2613.7913.79-0.19-0.19
NJITASun0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
IonaMAAC0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
ManhattanMAAC0.240.2441.9441.94-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2465.5265.520.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.240.2477.7877.780.130.13
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.13-0.13
ColgatePat0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.220.2237.0437.04-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1979.4179.410.110.11
BryantNEC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
HofstraCAA0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Loyola MDPat0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
AkronMAC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Notre DameACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
LehighPat0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
SMUAmer0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
FordhamA100.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UC DavisBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
NavyPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
IowaB100.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
MarylandB100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.040.0447.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01