live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:173.1
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:289
Current SOS:285
Current Record:15-10
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Probability of Auto Bid:28.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10148.712.26%
20-11163.334.27%
19-12178.634.70%
18-13193.615.31%
17-14208.73.28%
16-15223.60.17%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12South Florida (96.1)BEA61-59L0%0.0
11-16Dartmouth (320.3)IvyA53-65W100%0.0
11-19Marist (276.6)MAACN84-75W100%0.0
11-20Long Island (107.1)NECN80-75L0%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (126.1)CAAA63-65W100%0.0
11-26Siena (226.0)MAACH64-62W100%0.0
12-1Harvard (36.7)IvyH48-55L0%0.0
12-3Yale (117.5)IvyA68-52L0%0.0
12-7St. Louis (32.0)A10A62-43L0%0.0
12-11Quinnipiac (175.1)NECH58-62L0%0.0
12-17Iona (46.0)MAACH72-73L0%0.0
12-21Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)NECA53-71W100%0.0
12-23Towson (304.8)CAAA49-65W100%0.0
12-30Northeastern (164.6)CAAH51-53L0%0.0
1-2Stony Brook (154.7)AEA65-59L0%0.0
1-5Boston University (175.2)AEH83-69W100%0.0
1-8Hartford (328.5)AEA59-72W100%0.0
1-12Binghamton (343.4)AEH73-53W100%0.0
1-14New Hampshire (315.8)AEA72-64L0%0.0
1-16Maine (261.2)AEH79-65W100%0.0
1-19Albany (208.3)AEH73-69W100%0.0
1-22MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEA62-90W100%0.0
1-29New Hampshire (315.8)AEH77-60W100%0.0
2-1Boston University (175.2)AEA67-68W100%0.0
2-4Hartford (328.5)AEH82-56W100%0.0
2-6Maine (261.2)AEA0-061%3.1
2-12Stony Brook (154.7)AEH0-058%2.1
2-15Albany (208.3)AEA0-050%0.0
2-18Niagara (208.7)MAACH0-077%8.1
2-21Binghamton (343.4)AEA0-094%16.8
2-25MD Baltimore County (332.6)AEH0-097%20.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE26.3826.3160.9863.405.797.05
HartfordAE4.694.1319.0522.52-2.90-2.27
AlbanyAE2.774.1162.5062.870.691.06
Boston UniversityAE4.644.1152.1755.460.200.45
New HampshireAE4.574.0933.3337.67-1.52-1.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE2.584.0714.2917.46-1.84-2.65
Stony BrookAE2.654.0665.0067.800.801.45
MaineAE2.534.0352.6352.160.130.17
BinghamtonAE2.634.010.004.09-2.63-3.69
MaristMAAC2.321.9836.3634.62-0.63-0.61
NiagaraMAAC0.351.9237.5042.16-0.09-0.30
QuinnipiacNEC2.311.8654.5555.620.210.21
DartmouthIvy2.291.8415.0017.79-1.60-1.19
TowsonCAA2.171.844.175.43-1.99-1.64
NortheasternCAA2.201.8345.4546.72-0.20-0.12
SienaMAAC2.171.8347.6247.17-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy2.231.8170.5961.720.920.42
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.171.819.0912.57-1.78-1.35
IonaMAAC2.181.8078.2679.421.231.06
HarvardIvy2.231.7890.0087.471.781.34
Long IslandNEC2.171.7869.5770.050.850.71
Old DominionCAA2.251.7762.5060.230.560.36
South FloridaBE2.081.6752.3846.830.10-0.11
St. LouisA102.001.6176.1976.881.050.87
BrownIvy0.480.4027.2723.80-0.22-0.21
CornellIvy0.310.3936.8441.45-0.08-0.07
Loyola MDMAAC0.320.3877.2773.450.180.18
RiderMAAC0.310.3837.5038.52-0.08-0.09
St. Peter'sMAAC0.300.3821.7424.58-0.17-0.19
Sacred HeartNEC0.460.3444.0045.89-0.06-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.210.3317.3919.81-0.14-0.20
ColumbiaIvy0.270.3255.0054.800.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.310.3054.5554.300.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.300.3068.0069.070.110.11
HofstraCAA0.370.3032.0035.39-0.13-0.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.270.2845.4545.70-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.340.2726.0928.60-0.16-0.12
Holy CrossPat0.390.2640.9142.05-0.07-0.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.140.2654.5556.840.010.04
ColgatePat0.320.2530.4329.50-0.12-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.140.2347.3752.87-0.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.320.2330.4326.44-0.13-0.11
MonmouthNEC0.170.2228.0028.91-0.08-0.09
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.2256.5255.950.020.03
DrexelCAA0.210.2279.1778.100.120.12
La SalleA100.250.1970.8368.820.100.07
DelawareCAA0.200.1947.8350.65-0.010.00
George MasonCAA0.200.1876.0072.500.100.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1833.3334.47-0.05-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.190.1720.8320.60-0.11-0.10
RutgersBE0.190.1750.0046.810.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.280.178.3310.86-0.23-0.13
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1621.7422.76-0.10-0.09
BucknellPat0.210.1673.9175.000.100.08
William & MaryCAA0.170.1612.5013.44-0.12-0.12
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.170.1680.0078.060.100.09
ArmyPat0.190.1440.9141.72-0.03-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.190.1456.5250.270.020.00
FordhamA100.140.1440.9134.50-0.02-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1468.0070.030.060.06
MassachusettsA100.220.1473.9168.580.100.05
WagnerNEC0.170.1482.6184.570.110.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1362.5062.490.040.03
VillanovaBE0.170.1345.4546.08-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.120.1340.0040.18-0.02-0.03
IndianaB100.090.1275.0075.780.050.06
ConnecticutBE0.140.1168.1863.990.050.03
Notre DameBE0.140.1165.2262.650.040.03
RadfordBSth0.090.118.7013.10-0.07-0.08
St. John'sBE0.130.1143.4840.28-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.170.1171.4366.600.070.04
Penn St.B100.170.1141.6738.67-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.080.1166.6769.690.030.04
MissouriB120.080.1191.3087.180.070.08
NavyPat0.130.119.5213.19-0.10-0.08
NC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1139.1336.10-0.03-0.03
PittsburghBE0.040.1160.8758.160.010.02
AmericanPat0.090.0865.2263.790.030.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.140.0836.3639.72-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0860.0059.060.020.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.090.0845.0044.15-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.0881.8280.430.080.05
MarylandACC0.080.0859.0950.820.010.00
SyracuseBE0.040.0895.8392.010.040.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0654.5557.690.000.01
Seton HallBE0.100.0665.2263.740.030.02
DaytonA100.090.0660.8760.960.020.01
DuquesneA100.050.0659.0956.350.010.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0634.7832.08-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.090.0673.9174.910.040.03
Longwoodind0.090.0630.0027.84-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0659.0957.760.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0645.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0625.0037.58-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0634.7832.06-0.03-0.02
XavierA100.050.0665.2263.740.010.02
LafayettePat0.090.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.040.0578.2672.660.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.0533.3338.38-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0595.8392.570.080.05
KansasB120.090.0578.2678.390.050.03
TexasB120.080.0560.8761.370.020.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0382.6177.630.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0330.0037.30-0.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0324.0024.86-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.040.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0370.8364.420.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0359.0954.700.010.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
Seattleind0.050.0323.5333.28-0.03-0.01
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.060.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.000.0369.5765.470.000.01
DenverSB0.040.0370.8372.230.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0379.1775.980.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0359.0959.720.010.01
NevadaWAC0.000.0380.9576.420.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0368.1869.680.020.01
PurdueB100.040.0365.2260.580.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.030.02
Texas St.Slnd0.040.0322.2227.62-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.000.0365.2265.170.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
BelmontASun0.040.0369.5773.280.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0368.4266.450.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.040.0344.4441.71-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.040.0318.1822.22-0.03-0.01
MercerASun0.000.0370.8371.640.000.01
MichiganB100.040.0372.7366.810.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0354.1757.200.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.040.0334.7833.46-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0362.5061.500.010.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0363.6463.160.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0326.3229.79-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0373.9175.490.000.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0381.8276.800.030.01