Vermont

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	60.0
Current RPI:	60
Expected SOS:	195
Current SOS:	195
Current Record:	26-7
Expected Record:	26-7
Current Conf Record:	17-2
Expected Conf Record:	17-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-0
Current OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC RPI:	35
Expected OOC SOS:	84

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-7	60.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	73-69	L	0%
11-17	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	N	64-65	W	100%
11-18	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	N	67-80	W	100%
11-19	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	N	64-66	W	100%
11-25	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	A	73-79	W	100%
11-29	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	65-71	W	100%
12-2	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	81-77	L	0%
12-5	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	91-81	L	0%
12-9	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	71-67	L	0%
12-11	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	81-57	W	100%
12-16	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	N	81-79	L	0%
12-21	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	80-73	W	100%
1-2	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	56-62	W	100%
1-4	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	77-88	W	100%
1-6	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	71-56	W	100%
1-10	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	A	78-91	W	100%
1-13	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	73-62	W	100%
1-15	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	83-62	W	100%
1-18	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	56-67	W	100%
1-21	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	53-76	W	100%
1-24	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	61-50	W	100%
1-31	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	54-68	W	100%
2-3	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	53-81	W	100%
2-8	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	67-72	W	100%
2-11	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	81-69	W	100%
2-15	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	71-58	W	100%
2-18	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	68-69	L	0%
2-21	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	75-54	W	100%
2-24	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	60-69	W	100%
2-27	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	62-74	W	100%
3-3	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	75-60	W	100%
3-6	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	70-51	W	100%
3-10	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	62-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Vermont	AE	26.52	26.52	80.98	80.98	16.43	16.43
UMBC	AE	5.48	5.48	71.43	71.43	2.35	2.35
Stony Brook	AE	5.42	5.42	42.86	42.86	-0.77	-0.77
Maine	AE	5.40	5.40	14.81	14.81	-3.80	-3.80
Albany	AE	4.04	4.04	72.41	72.41	1.81	1.81
Hartford	AE	4.03	4.03	58.62	58.62	0.70	0.70
New Hampshire	AE	3.96	3.96	29.63	29.63	-1.61	-1.61
UMass Lowell	AE	3.95	3.95	40.74	40.74	-0.73	-0.73
Binghamton	AE	3.88	3.88	33.33	33.33	-1.29	-1.29
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.82	1.82	24.00	24.00	-0.94	-0.94
Quinnipiac	MAAC	1.74	1.74	37.50	37.50	-0.43	-0.43
Yale	Ivy	1.70	1.70	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Siena	MAAC	1.68	1.68	25.81	25.81	-0.81	-0.81
Harvard	Ivy	1.67	1.67	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Bucknell	Pat	1.66	1.66	72.73	72.73	0.75	0.75
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.64	1.64	77.42	77.42	0.90	0.90
Northern Kentucky	Horz	1.59	1.59	71.43	71.43	0.68	0.68
Northeastern	CAA	1.59	1.59	67.74	67.74	0.56	0.56
Richmond	A10	1.58	1.58	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
Kentucky	SEC	1.54	1.54	69.70	69.70	0.61	0.61
Bradley	MVC	1.52	1.52	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
Coastal Carolina	SB	1.52	1.52	39.29	39.29	-0.32	-0.32
Marquette	BE	1.52	1.52	58.06	58.06	0.24	0.24
Columbia	Ivy	0.38	0.38	26.92	26.92	-0.18	-0.18
Boston University	Pat	0.34	0.34	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.31	0.31	40.74	40.74	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.31	0.31	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.28	0.28	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.26	0.26	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
Colgate	Pat	0.24	0.24	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.23	0.23	9.68	9.68	-0.18	-0.18
Massachusetts	A10	0.22	0.22	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Penn	Ivy	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
Loyola MD	Pat	0.20	0.20	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.19	0.19	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.18	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.18	0.18	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	6.67	6.67	-0.11	-0.11
George Mason	A10	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Chicago St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	3.33	3.33	-0.11	-0.11
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Davidson	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
VCU	A10	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.04	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.04	0.04	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.04	0.04	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.04	0.04	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.04	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01