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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:161.2
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:213
Current Record:13-12
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12139.25.49%
17-13153.147.01%
16-14167.836.29%
15-15183.110.22%
14-16199.60.96%
13-17213.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACA70-50L0%0.0
11-15Purdue (15.3)B10A107-79L0%0.0
11-18Quinnipiac (274.8)MAACH83-70W100%0.0
11-21Niagara (308.3)MAACN67-85W100%0.0
11-22Buffalo (92.4)MACN77-71L0%0.0
11-25Florida (24.3)SECA86-62L0%0.0
11-29Marist (313.2)MAACH86-60W100%0.0
12-2Dartmouth (290.9)IvyA63-68W100%0.0
12-5Yale (55.4)IvyA72-54L0%0.0
12-8St. Bonaventure (52.1)A10A80-68L0%0.0
12-16UC Santa Barbara (121.7)BWH75-68W100%0.0
12-22Northeastern (148.9)CAAA77-65L0%0.0
12-29Siena (99.5)MAACH73-64W100%0.0
1-3Harvard (213.7)IvyA62-65W100%0.0
1-6Maine (304.0)AEA72-90W100%0.0
1-9Albany (89.1)AEH57-69L0%0.0
1-16Hartford (313.4)AEA68-83W100%0.0
1-18UMass Lowell (262.8)AEH82-93L0%0.0
1-21Binghamton (309.3)AEA52-61W100%0.0
1-24UMBC (320.1)AEH79-72W100%0.0
1-27New Hampshire (194.6)AEA50-66W100%0.0
1-30Stony Brook (45.6)AEH61-72L0%0.0
2-3Maine (304.0)AEH85-68W100%0.0
2-6Albany (89.1)AEA75-71L0%0.0
2-8UMass Lowell (262.8)AEA100-93L0%0.0
2-14Hartford (313.4)AEH0-092%15.2
2-17Binghamton (309.3)AEH0-091%14.7
2-20UMBC (320.1)AEA0-071%6.1
2-24New Hampshire (194.6)AEH0-080%9.2
2-27Stony Brook (45.6)AEA0-011%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE26.3526.3356.5258.383.444.41
AlbanyAE4.694.2973.9174.612.242.11
HartfordAE2.754.2726.0928.38-1.31-1.84
MaineAE4.574.2036.3635.58-1.25-1.21
BinghamtonAE2.694.2021.7425.55-1.52-2.05
New HampshireAE2.604.1760.0057.520.520.63
Stony BrookAE2.634.1680.9581.701.632.64
UMBCAE2.594.1525.0027.15-1.30-1.90
UMass LowellAE4.474.1428.5730.70-1.91-1.60
QuinnipiacMAAC2.372.0038.1037.44-0.56-0.50
DartmouthIvy2.321.9933.3332.97-0.77-0.68
NiagaraMAAC2.381.9825.0025.37-1.19-0.97
SienaMAAC2.341.9266.6766.270.780.62
MaristMAAC2.301.9222.7325.05-1.25-0.96
YaleIvy2.121.9072.2273.710.940.90
HarvardIvy2.151.8236.8439.92-0.56-0.37
BuffaloMAC2.191.8154.5555.510.200.20
St. BonaventureA102.171.8170.0067.840.870.64
NortheasternCAA2.101.7643.4844.80-0.27-0.18
Eastern MichiganMAC2.091.7236.8441.26-0.55-0.30
FloridaSEC2.041.6965.2265.190.620.51
PurdueB102.041.6979.1777.201.190.92
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.001.6745.0052.26-0.200.08
CornellIvy0.400.3842.1140.21-0.06-0.07
BrownIvy0.320.3631.5831.07-0.12-0.14
Boston UniversityPat0.390.3254.1755.600.030.04
Holy CrossPat0.390.3239.1338.31-0.09-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.360.3144.0045.31-0.04-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.270.2854.1754.140.020.02
RiderMAAC0.260.2840.0042.11-0.05-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.290.2840.9143.29-0.05-0.04
NJITASun0.310.2654.1755.280.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.2613.0413.55-0.23-0.19
IonaMAAC0.260.2560.8760.720.060.05
ColumbiaIvy0.200.2466.6765.220.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.200.2472.2274.700.090.12
PennIvy0.200.2438.8937.63-0.04-0.06
ColgatePat0.210.2343.4844.80-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.200.2242.8642.05-0.03-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.300.2280.0081.160.180.14
Boston CollegeACC0.270.2129.1726.74-0.11-0.10
BryantNEC0.240.1825.0026.39-0.12-0.09
ConnecticutAmer0.220.1873.9172.480.100.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.260.1747.8348.87-0.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.1734.7837.05-0.07-0.05
HofstraCAA0.170.1765.2264.220.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.170.1734.7837.17-0.05-0.04
Michigan St.B100.210.1780.0081.600.130.11
Kent St.MAC0.140.1565.2260.590.040.03
ArmyPat0.170.1454.1754.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1456.5259.860.020.03
LongwoodBSth0.180.1422.7324.97-0.10-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1450.0045.840.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.1482.6178.910.110.08
AmericanPat0.090.1230.4331.91-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.130.1270.8367.790.060.04
LehighPat0.140.1236.3639.78-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.1260.8762.040.020.03
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1231.8232.69-0.05-0.04
WagnerNEC0.170.1263.6465.020.050.04
AkronMAC0.140.1282.6181.140.090.07
OhioMAC0.050.1263.6461.420.010.03
Miami OHMAC0.140.1134.7833.09-0.04-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.090.1130.0034.55-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.090.1136.3633.54-0.02-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1150.0049.460.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.170.1121.7423.34-0.10-0.06
DuquesneA100.090.1160.8756.430.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.1140.0045.50-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1137.5043.38-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.130.1136.3638.92-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1175.0072.610.060.05
TowsonCAA0.080.1165.2259.770.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1129.1733.12-0.07-0.04
SMUAmer0.100.0990.9186.110.080.07
Ball St.MAC0.090.0960.8757.190.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.140.0947.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0960.0057.610.020.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0968.0067.980.030.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0940.9139.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0979.1776.070.050.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0965.2267.130.030.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0964.0062.060.020.02
RutgersB100.130.0921.7420.37-0.07-0.05
FordhamA100.080.0955.0052.190.010.00
DukeACC0.140.0975.0071.800.070.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0975.0070.990.050.04
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0856.5262.790.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0862.5062.370.020.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0825.0023.40-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.080.0860.8755.830.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0635.0034.80-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.24-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0656.5256.320.010.01
USCP120.100.0678.2673.050.060.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0635.0032.27-0.01-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0628.5728.55-0.02-0.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0684.2181.660.070.04
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0640.0036.76-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.100.0672.7371.650.040.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.090.0661.9056.430.020.01
IllinoisB100.090.0645.8344.13-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.300.040.04
FIUCUSA0.040.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0662.5056.050.020.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0639.1335.43-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.090.0673.9173.970.040.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
RichmondA100.090.0654.5554.470.010.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0663.6460.920.010.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0613.6418.15-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.080.0652.1750.420.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0670.8369.490.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0620.0019.68-0.05-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0676.1973.420.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0671.4369.830.040.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0582.6177.520.050.03
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0559.0955.300.010.01
IowaB100.080.0582.6180.550.050.03
LSUSEC0.040.0565.2260.260.010.01
MarylandB100.040.0587.5083.700.030.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0529.1733.74-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.040.0569.5766.220.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0562.5058.930.020.01
NebraskaB100.040.0554.1751.880.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0528.5726.98-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.040.0543.4840.46-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0530.4332.36-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.700.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.67-0.04-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.970.030.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.690.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.490.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.830.010.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.650.040.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6244.99-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.02
WashingtonP120.050.0365.2261.100.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.940.010.00
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0378.2674.410.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.46-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.22-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.170.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.530.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0322.7327.22-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0373.9170.050.020.01
LipscombASun0.040.0325.0029.30-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0359.0953.250.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0053.100.000.00
BucknellPat0.040.0354.5558.160.000.00
ButlerBE0.040.0369.5767.150.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.6252.05-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0369.5764.890.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0352.9452.080.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0379.1774.040.000.01
IUPUISum0.040.0340.0039.81-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0326.0927.79-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.78-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.33-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.730.010.01
Ohio St.B100.040.0360.0055.500.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.630.020.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0350.0051.300.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.110.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.040.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0378.2677.860.020.01
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.090.020.02