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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:91.3
Current RPI:75
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:109
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-2
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:9-5
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-333.90.07%
26-440.50.56%
25-548.93.43%
24-658.99.18%
23-770.016.65%
22-882.821.68%
21-996.120.76%
20-10110.913.59%
19-11127.08.50%
18-12144.03.49%
17-13162.51.57%
16-14181.40.35%
15-15199.60.12%
14-16213.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACA70-94W100%0.0
11-14Providence (75.1)BEA80-58L0%0.0
11-16Marist (236.1)MAACA72-76W100%0.0
11-21Wofford (257.2)SCN59-60W100%0.0
11-22Hofstra (237.3)CAAN73-87W100%0.0
11-23Houston (42.7)AmerN72-71L0%0.0
11-26Yale (103.3)IvyH67-65W100%0.0
12-1South Carolina (17.4)SECA68-50L0%0.0
12-7Dartmouth (310.5)IvyH0-091%16.4
12-10Northeastern (167.3)CAAH0-075%8.1
12-17Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-062%3.6
12-21Butler (14.7)BEA0-09%-16.2
12-29Siena (144.9)MAACA0-052%0.5
1-2Harvard (224.3)IvyH0-075%8.0
1-5Maine (310.8)AEA0-086%12.9
1-8Hartford (335.7)AEH0-095%20.0
1-11Binghamton (270.8)AEA0-079%9.8
1-13UMBC (212.5)AEH0-084%11.8
1-16New Hampshire (156.1)AEA0-061%3.2
1-19UMass Lowell (255.3)AEH0-088%14.1
1-25Albany (156.7)AEA0-055%1.6
1-28Stony Brook (298.6)AEA0-079%9.6
2-1Maine (310.8)AEH0-094%19.1
2-4Hartford (335.7)AEA0-088%13.9
2-6Binghamton (270.8)AEH0-091%16.0
2-9New Hampshire (156.1)AEH0-078%9.4
2-12UMBC (212.5)AEA0-068%5.6
2-15UMass Lowell (255.3)AEA0-075%8.0
2-22Albany (156.7)AEH0-074%7.8
2-25Stony Brook (298.6)AEH0-091%15.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE28.9726.3371.0574.2212.2012.75
MaineAE0.004.2616.6726.73-0.00-1.98
HartfordAE0.004.2412.5023.51-0.00-2.25
AlbanyAE0.004.2350.0062.170.001.03
Stony BrookAE0.004.2016.6735.19-0.00-1.24
New HampshireAE0.454.1950.0059.640.000.81
UMass LowellAE0.454.1725.0042.39-0.22-0.63
BinghamtonAE0.004.1442.8642.95-0.00-0.58
UMBCAE0.004.1380.0057.840.000.65
DartmouthIvy0.452.000.0024.04-0.45-1.04
MaristMAAC6.251.9250.0036.870.00-0.50
YaleIvy6.251.9040.0066.71-1.250.64
QuinnipiacMAAC6.251.8820.0035.49-3.75-0.55
NortheasternCAA0.001.8757.1449.050.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.001.8628.5750.57-0.000.02
HarvardIvy0.001.850.0043.77-0.00-0.23
ProvidenceBE6.251.8466.6754.822.080.18
HofstraCAA6.251.8166.6741.952.08-0.29
ButlerBE0.001.72100.0075.160.000.87
HoustonAmer6.251.7080.0075.563.750.87
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.6750.0056.520.000.22
South CarolinaSEC6.251.67100.0080.116.251.00
WoffordSC6.251.670.0034.83-6.25-0.51
CornellIvy0.520.4528.5730.63-0.22-0.17
BrownIvy0.450.4450.0042.420.00-0.07
ColumbiaIvy0.970.4242.8642.47-0.14-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.450.2942.8647.69-0.06-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2640.0037.65-0.00-0.06
TowsonCAA0.000.2350.0054.490.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2350.0053.530.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.2283.3357.990.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.2233.3341.52-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2216.6727.03-0.00-0.10
RiderMAAC0.000.2250.0047.990.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2050.0027.250.00-0.09
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1983.3362.080.000.05
DrexelCAA0.000.1942.8636.82-0.00-0.05
PennIvy0.000.1940.0057.97-0.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1925.0063.95-0.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.450.1933.3338.19-0.15-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.970.1971.4371.570.410.08
James MadisonCAA0.000.170.0028.15-0.00-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.000.1733.3340.49-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.1740.0040.65-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.1742.8638.05-0.06-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1728.5733.92-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.520.1671.4354.520.220.01
IonaMAAC0.000.1660.0070.140.000.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1660.0052.760.000.01
BryantNEC0.520.1628.5750.20-0.220.00
SMUAmer0.000.1457.1469.300.000.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1485.7180.960.000.09
TempleAmer0.000.1271.4363.570.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1216.6736.35-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.1240.0027.05-0.00-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1285.7162.920.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1240.0043.86-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1283.3358.080.000.02
NavyPat0.000.1228.5743.62-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.1220.0041.31-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.1142.8650.32-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.450.1171.4370.330.190.05
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1162.5056.500.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.1183.3358.030.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1183.3377.170.000.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.1140.0055.44-0.000.01
MemphisAmer0.450.1185.7159.740.320.02
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.650.000.06
DePaulBE0.000.1180.0035.960.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1150.0047.560.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1171.4363.090.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
XavierBE0.000.11100.0074.800.000.05
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0019.51-0.00-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.090.0039.35-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.520.0933.3367.01-0.170.03
Kent St.MAC0.620.0950.0051.820.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0940.0050.91-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0925.0024.66-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
LSUSEC1.150.0971.4349.770.49-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0883.3375.060.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0840.0050.71-0.000.00
DukeACC0.450.0887.5078.680.330.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.450.0850.0056.260.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.450.0816.6729.36-0.30-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0833.3353.85-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.520.0685.7155.550.370.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.970.06100.0082.550.970.04
SyracuseACC0.450.0666.6770.140.150.02
BradleyMVC1.070.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.520.0633.3346.81-0.17-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.970.0657.1447.220.14-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0575.0067.660.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6770.740.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0540.0030.80-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
WashingtonP120.520.0357.1452.630.070.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.620.0371.4359.850.270.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.030.0018.22-0.45-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.520.0357.1442.940.07-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.520.03100.0091.060.520.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.450.0340.0067.95-0.090.01
MichiganB100.450.0371.4366.530.190.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.520.0316.6737.09-0.35-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.450.030.0027.77-0.45-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.450.0328.5734.18-0.19-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
Ohio St.B100.450.0385.7172.660.320.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01