Vermont

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	173.1
Current RPI:	175
Expected SOS:	289
Current SOS:	285
Current Record:	15-10
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	9-2
Expected Conf Record:	13-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	28.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-2
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	7-8
Expected OOC RPI:	180
Expected OOC SOS:	190

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	148.7	12.26%
20-11	163.3	34.27%
19-12	178.6	34.70%
18-13	193.6	15.31%
17-14	208.7	3.28%
16-15	223.6	0.17%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	South Florida (96.1)	BE	A	61-59	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Dartmouth (320.3)	Ivy	A	53-65	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	N	84-75	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	N	80-75	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	A	63-65	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	64-62	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	48-55	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Yale (117.5)	Ivy	A	68-52	L	0%	0.0
12-7	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	A	62-43	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	H	58-62	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	72-73	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	53-71	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Towson (304.8)	CAA	A	49-65	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	H	51-53	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	65-59	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	83-69	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	59-72	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	73-53	W	100%	0.0
1-14	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	72-64	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	79-65	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	73-69	W	100%	0.0
1-22	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	62-90	W	100%	0.0
1-29	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	77-60	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Boston University (175.2)	AE	A	67-68	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	82-56	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	0-0		61%	3.1
2-12	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	0-0		58%	2.1
2-15	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	0-0		50%	0.0
2-18	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	0-0		77%	8.1
2-21	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	0-0		94%	16.8
2-25	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	0-0		97%	20.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Vermont	AE	26.38	26.31	60.98	63.40	5.79	7.05
Hartford	AE	4.69	4.13	19.05	22.52	-2.90	-2.27
Albany	AE	2.77	4.11	62.50	62.87	0.69	1.06
Boston University	AE	4.64	4.11	52.17	55.46	0.20	0.45
New Hampshire	AE	4.57	4.09	33.33	37.67	-1.52	-1.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.58	4.07	14.29	17.46	-1.84	-2.65
Stony Brook	AE	2.65	4.06	65.00	67.80	0.80	1.45
Maine	AE	2.53	4.03	52.63	52.16	0.13	0.17
Binghamton	AE	2.63	4.01	0.00	4.09	-2.63	-3.69
Marist	MAAC	2.32	1.98	36.36	34.62	-0.63	-0.61
Niagara	MAAC	0.35	1.92	37.50	42.16	-0.09	-0.30
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.31	1.86	54.55	55.62	0.21	0.21
Dartmouth	Ivy	2.29	1.84	15.00	17.79	-1.60	-1.19
Towson	CAA	2.17	1.84	4.17	5.43	-1.99	-1.64
Northeastern	CAA	2.20	1.83	45.45	46.72	-0.20	-0.12
Siena	MAAC	2.17	1.83	47.62	47.17	-0.10	-0.10
Yale	Ivy	2.23	1.81	70.59	61.72	0.92	0.42
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.17	1.81	9.09	12.57	-1.78	-1.35
Iona	MAAC	2.18	1.80	78.26	79.42	1.23	1.06
Harvard	Ivy	2.23	1.78	90.00	87.47	1.78	1.34
Long Island	NEC	2.17	1.78	69.57	70.05	0.85	0.71
Old Dominion	CAA	2.25	1.77	62.50	60.23	0.56	0.36
South Florida	BE	2.08	1.67	52.38	46.83	0.10	-0.11
St. Louis	A10	2.00	1.61	76.19	76.88	1.05	0.87
Brown	Ivy	0.48	0.40	27.27	23.80	-0.22	-0.21
Cornell	Ivy	0.31	0.39	36.84	41.45	-0.08	-0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.32	0.38	77.27	73.45	0.18	0.18
Rider	MAAC	0.31	0.38	37.50	38.52	-0.08	-0.09
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.30	0.38	21.74	24.58	-0.17	-0.19
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.46	0.34	44.00	45.89	-0.06	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.21	0.33	17.39	19.81	-0.14	-0.20
Columbia	Ivy	0.27	0.32	55.00	54.80	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.31	0.30	54.55	54.30	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.30	0.30	68.00	69.07	0.11	0.11
Hofstra	CAA	0.37	0.30	32.00	35.39	-0.13	-0.09
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.27	0.28	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.34	0.27	26.09	28.60	-0.16	-0.12
Holy Cross	Pat	0.39	0.26	40.91	42.05	-0.07	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.14	0.26	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.32	0.25	30.43	29.50	-0.12	-0.10
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.23	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.32	0.23	30.43	26.44	-0.13	-0.11
Monmouth	NEC	0.17	0.22	28.00	28.91	-0.08	-0.09
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.22	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.22	79.17	78.10	0.12	0.12
La Salle	A10	0.25	0.19	70.83	68.82	0.10	0.07
Delaware	CAA	0.20	0.19	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.20	0.18	76.00	72.50	0.10	0.08
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.18	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.19	0.17	20.83	20.60	-0.11	-0.10
Rutgers	BE	0.19	0.17	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.28	0.17	8.33	10.86	-0.23	-0.13
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.16	21.74	22.76	-0.10	-0.09
Bucknell	Pat	0.21	0.16	73.91	75.00	0.10	0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.17	0.16	12.50	13.44	-0.12	-0.12
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.17	0.16	80.00	78.06	0.10	0.09
Army	Pat	0.19	0.14	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.19	0.14	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.14	0.14	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.17	0.14	68.00	70.03	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.22	0.14	73.91	68.58	0.10	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.14	82.61	84.57	0.11	0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.13	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.17	0.13	45.45	46.08	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.11	68.18	63.99	0.05	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.11	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.11	8.70	13.10	-0.07	-0.08
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.17	0.11	71.43	66.60	0.07	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.11	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.11	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.08	0.11	91.30	87.18	0.07	0.08
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.11	9.52	13.19	-0.10	-0.08
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.11	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.04	0.11	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.02
American	Pat	0.09	0.08	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.08	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.08	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.08	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.08	81.82	80.43	0.08	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.04	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.06	73.91	74.91	0.04	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.05	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.04	0.05	78.26	72.66	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.05	33.33	38.38	-0.03	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.05	95.83	92.57	0.08	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.03
Texas	B12	0.08	0.05	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.04	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.04	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.02	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Denver	SB	0.04	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.03	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.02	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.00	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.04	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.04	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.00	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.00	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01