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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Vermont

Conference:AE
Expected RPI:165.1
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:279
Current SOS:250
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:1-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:170
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-570.60.05%
22-677.40.44%
21-790.51.78%
20-8106.15.16%
19-9122.911.08%
18-10139.716.82%
17-11158.020.18%
16-12178.018.74%
15-13198.313.18%
14-14220.07.47%
13-15240.73.33%
12-16261.01.37%
11-17278.60.29%
10-18295.10.09%
9-19296.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Vermont.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Canisius (126.6)MAACA64-60L0%0.0
11-17Siena (202.5)MAACA76-84W100%0.0
11-22Saint Joseph's (193.4)A10A68-60L0%0.0
11-26Bryant (202.3)NECH73-47W100%0.0
11-30Quinnipiac (248.6)MAACA89-73L0%0.0
12-3Hartford (213.4)AEH81-69W100%0.0
12-6Harvard (51.4)IvyH52-64L0%0.0
12-14Wagner (274.6)NECH61-47W100%0.0
12-18Yale (68.3)IvyH0-052%0.7
12-21Saint Louis (268.1)A10A0-067%5.2
12-30USC (182.0)P12A0-045%-1.4
1-2UC Santa Barbara (78.9)BWA0-017%-11.2
1-7Maine (325.0)AEA0-078%9.0
1-10Stony Brook (145.9)AEH0-066%4.9
1-14Dartmouth (186.6)IvyH0-069%5.7
1-17UMBC (335.5)AEA0-080%9.8
1-19Binghamton (342.3)AEH0-096%21.0
1-22New Hampshire (160.0)AEA0-036%-4.4
1-25UMass Lowell (181.8)AEA0-048%-0.5
1-28Albany (224.6)AEH0-075%8.0
1-31Hartford (213.4)AEA0-051%0.1
2-3Maine (325.0)AEH0-093%17.7
2-7Stony Brook (145.9)AEA0-037%-3.9
2-11UMass Lowell (181.8)AEH0-076%8.2
2-14UMBC (335.5)AEH0-094%18.5
2-18Binghamton (342.3)AEA0-085%12.2
2-25New Hampshire (160.0)AEH0-064%4.4
2-28Albany (224.6)AEA0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Vermont's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Vermont's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Vermont.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
VermontAE28.1726.3850.0062.750.006.73
MaineAE0.454.5511.1121.67-0.35-2.58
AlbanyAE0.784.5433.3349.60-0.26-0.04
HartfordAE6.644.5455.5652.820.740.26
New HampshireAE0.454.5057.1465.680.061.41
Stony BrookAE0.004.4837.5055.54-0.000.50
UMass LowellAE0.004.4855.5655.870.000.53
BinghamtonAE0.004.450.0012.21-0.00-3.36
UMBCAE0.004.4510.0021.64-0.00-2.52
DartmouthIvy0.312.2044.4448.04-0.03-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC6.952.1328.5743.96-2.98-0.26
YaleIvy1.152.1170.0065.440.460.65
BryantNEC6.252.0133.3348.92-2.08-0.04
CanisiusMAAC6.251.9742.8660.28-0.890.41
SienaMAAC6.641.9742.8653.30-0.950.13
HarvardIvy6.251.9483.3371.854.170.85
WagnerNEC6.251.9116.6735.05-4.17-0.57
Saint Joseph'sA106.251.8250.0038.140.00-0.43
Saint LouisA100.001.8260.0034.050.00-0.58
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.001.7937.5063.87-0.000.50
USCP120.001.7960.0036.630.00-0.48
NJITind0.000.5036.3640.81-0.00-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.350.4125.0040.49-0.17-0.08
CornellIvy0.390.3855.5648.590.04-0.01
BrownIvy0.450.3540.0033.85-0.09-0.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.3550.0058.660.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.450.3562.5065.190.110.11
PennIvy0.450.3237.5032.89-0.11-0.11
Boston CollegeACC0.000.3266.6741.940.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.700.3114.2931.11-0.50-0.12
RiderMAAC0.700.2845.4552.00-0.060.01
Boston UniversityPat0.840.2633.3341.58-0.28-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.2627.2737.77-0.00-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.2522.2231.12-0.17-0.09
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.700.2536.3647.27-0.19-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.390.2544.4439.99-0.04-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2522.2237.72-0.00-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.780.2475.0064.990.390.07
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2244.4456.70-0.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.2272.7352.880.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.2110.0018.78-0.00-0.13
Holy CrossPat0.760.1957.1452.640.110.01
ColgatePat0.000.1920.0042.80-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1950.0062.870.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1937.5038.03-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA101.230.1960.0055.530.250.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1866.6772.380.000.08
FordhamA100.390.1828.5728.28-0.17-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.740.1833.3327.49-0.25-0.08
ArmyPat0.450.1877.7868.810.250.07
Rhode IslandA100.000.1862.5073.580.000.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.350.1628.5741.30-0.15-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.1528.5731.25-0.00-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1330.0039.75-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1322.2240.77-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.1390.9171.750.000.05
LehighPat0.390.1242.8652.31-0.060.01
Oregon St.P120.000.1275.0049.720.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.450.1260.0056.780.090.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1266.6766.690.000.04
La SalleA100.390.1250.0049.770.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0936.3638.88-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0977.7869.420.000.04
HofstraCAA0.450.0977.7878.200.250.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0026.68-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0033.280.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0940.0036.15-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.390.0975.0069.340.200.04
OregonP120.000.0966.6759.200.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0072.030.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.0955.5648.830.04-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0977.7869.890.000.04
George MasonA100.000.0925.0025.95-0.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.520.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0760.0034.930.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0762.5055.120.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.270.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8638.02-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.69-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.090.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0049.99-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0637.5041.84-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.620.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.350.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.530.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.91-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8643.73-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.450.0675.0069.390.220.02
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9154.060.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0029.07-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.060.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.470.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.330.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.450.0657.1456.210.060.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.460.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0044.01-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.75-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.37-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.890.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8963.530.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0666.6751.310.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.840.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.41-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0650.0053.980.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.650.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.600.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.470.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.580.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.040.000.03
DrexelCAA0.350.0625.0037.61-0.17-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0057.040.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.410.000.01
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.670.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.450.0350.0052.290.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.37-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.450.0371.4348.780.19-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.450.0366.6757.570.150.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.970.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.730.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.460.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.540.000.01
MarylandB100.450.0390.9167.700.370.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.610.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5046.46-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.340.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.870.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.69-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.390.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.270.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0055.940.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.15-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.830.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.03-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.350.0390.0091.070.280.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.97-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.320.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.440.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.23-0.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0357.1447.960.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0024.33-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1454.700.000.00
TempleAmer0.350.0360.0053.790.070.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.71-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.33-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.110.000.00
VillanovaBE0.350.03100.0082.310.350.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.210.000.02