Manhattan

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	228.0
Current RPI:	228
Expected SOS:	240
Current SOS:	240
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	242
Expected OOC SOS:	254

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	228.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	80-79	W	100%
11-18	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	73-69	W	100%
11-20	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	N	63-74	L	0%
11-21	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	N	69-65	L	0%
11-22	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	N	70-68	L	0%
11-26	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	70-57	L	0%
12-1	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	N	54-70	W	100%
12-2	Towson (153.0)	CAA	N	56-55	L	0%
12-9	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	80-66	W	100%
12-16	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	80-66	L	0%
12-20	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	61-63	W	100%
12-23	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	74-62	L	0%
12-30	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	H	61-58	W	100%
1-2	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	A	96-101	W	100%
1-5	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	A	77-66	L	0%
1-7	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	76-82	L	0%
1-11	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	53-59	W	100%
1-13	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	H	72-61	W	100%
1-19	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	59-68	L	0%
1-21	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	57-68	W	100%
1-24	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	72-63	L	0%
1-27	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	65-78	L	0%
1-30	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	59-62	L	0%
2-2	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	47-51	W	100%
2-8	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	A	77-73	L	0%
2-10	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	93-76	W	100%
2-15	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	A	71-70	L	0%
2-18	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	82-72	W	100%
2-23	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	88-75	L	0%
2-25	Quinnipiac (277.0)	MAAC	H	92-86	W	100%
3-3	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	72-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Manhattan	MAAC	26.30	26.30	46.04	46.04	-2.08	-2.08
Iona	MAAC	5.65	5.65	56.67	56.67	0.75	0.75
Fairfield	MAAC	4.26	4.26	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
Quinnipiac	MAAC	4.08	4.08	35.48	35.48	-1.19	-1.19
Siena	MAAC	4.08	4.08	26.67	26.67	-1.90	-1.90
Monmouth	MAAC	4.05	4.05	34.48	34.48	-1.26	-1.26
Rider	MAAC	4.03	4.03	68.97	68.97	1.53	1.53
Niagara	MAAC	4.03	4.03	60.00	60.00	0.81	0.81
Marist	MAAC	4.00	4.00	17.24	17.24	-2.62	-2.62
Saint Peter's	MAAC	2.70	2.70	45.16	45.16	-0.26	-0.26
Canisius	MAAC	2.52	2.52	64.52	64.52	0.73	0.73
Hofstra	CAA	1.82	1.82	62.07	62.07	0.44	0.44
Holy Cross	Pat	1.76	1.76	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Towson	CAA	1.69	1.69	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Fordham	A10	1.67	1.67	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
Harvard	Ivy	1.66	1.66	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
St. Francis NY	NEC	1.66	1.66	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Missouri St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.61	1.61	34.48	34.48	-0.50	-0.50
Tulsa	Amer	1.61	1.61	60.00	60.00	0.32	0.32
UMKC	WAC	1.61	1.61	25.00	25.00	-0.81	-0.81
Penn	Ivy	0.26	0.26	74.19	74.19	0.13	0.13
Army	Pat	0.26	0.26	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.21	0.21	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.18	0.18	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.18	0.18	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	CAA	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Elon	CAA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Memphis	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.13	0.13	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola MD	Pat	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02