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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:228.0
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:240
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:242
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17228.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH80-79W100%0.0
11-18Harvard (117.0)IvyH73-69W100%0.0
11-20UMKC (256.0)WACN63-74L0%0.0
11-21Missouri St. (136.0)MVCN69-65L0%0.0
11-22Northern Illinois (241.0)MACN70-68L0%0.0
11-26Fordham (290.0)A10A70-57L0%0.0
12-1Holy Cross (265.0)PatN54-70W100%0.0
12-2Towson (153.0)CAAN56-55L0%0.0
12-9Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH80-66W100%0.0
12-16Tulsa (89.0)AmerA80-66L0%0.0
12-20Hofstra (121.0)CAAA61-63W100%0.0
12-23Seton Hall (31.0)BEA74-62L0%0.0
12-30Fairfield (180.0)MAACH61-58W100%0.0
1-2Marist (324.0)MAACA96-101W100%0.0
1-5Monmouth (199.0)MAACA77-66L0%0.0
1-7Rider (69.0)MAACH76-82L0%0.0
1-11Fairfield (180.0)MAACA53-59W100%0.0
1-13Siena (299.0)MAACH72-61W100%0.0
1-19Canisius (124.0)MAACH59-68L0%0.0
1-21Saint Peter's (251.0)MAACA57-68W100%0.0
1-24Niagara (163.0)MAACA72-63L0%0.0
1-27Iona (107.0)MAACN65-78L0%0.0
1-30Marist (324.0)MAACH59-62L0%0.0
2-2Siena (299.0)MAACA47-51W100%0.0
2-8Rider (69.0)MAACA77-73L0%0.0
2-10Monmouth (199.0)MAACH93-76W100%0.0
2-15Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACA71-70L0%0.0
2-18Niagara (163.0)MAACH82-72W100%0.0
2-23Iona (107.0)MAACA88-75L0%0.0
2-25Quinnipiac (277.0)MAACH92-86W100%0.0
3-3Iona (107.0)MAACN72-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC26.3026.3046.0446.04-2.08-2.08
IonaMAAC5.655.6556.6756.670.750.75
FairfieldMAAC4.264.2654.8454.840.410.41
QuinnipiacMAAC4.084.0835.4835.48-1.19-1.19
SienaMAAC4.084.0826.6726.67-1.90-1.90
MonmouthMAAC4.054.0534.4834.48-1.26-1.26
RiderMAAC4.034.0368.9768.971.531.53
NiagaraMAAC4.034.0360.0060.000.810.81
MaristMAAC4.004.0017.2417.24-2.62-2.62
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.702.7045.1645.16-0.26-0.26
CanisiusMAAC2.522.5264.5264.520.730.73
HofstraCAA1.821.8262.0762.070.440.44
Holy CrossPat1.761.7640.0040.00-0.35-0.35
TowsonCAA1.691.6951.7251.720.060.06
Seton HallBE1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
FordhamA101.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
HarvardIvy1.661.6658.6258.620.290.29
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6639.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Morgan St.MEAC1.641.6437.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
TulsaAmer1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
UMKCWAC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
PennIvy0.260.2674.1974.190.130.13
ArmyPat0.260.2641.3841.38-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
DrexelCAA0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.210.2137.9337.93-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.180.1838.4638.46-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.180.1870.0070.000.070.07
YaleIvy0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.180.1839.3939.39-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
ElonCAA0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
Rhode IslandA100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
NortheasternCAA0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
NavyPat0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
CornellIvy0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
MemphisAmer0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.130.1323.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Loyola MDPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
LafayettePat0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
St. John'sBE0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
DelawareCAA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.110.119.689.68-0.09-0.09
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
HartfordAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
OhioMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
TulaneAmer0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
VCUA100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
ButlerBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02