Manhattan

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	115.3
Current RPI:	118
Expected SOS:	237
Current SOS:	231
Current Record:	17-8
Expected Record:	21-10
Current Conf Record:	10-3
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	17.55%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	141
Expected OOC SOS:	281

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	98.1	13.35%
22-9	108.3	35.12%
21-10	119.4	33.65%
20-11	131.6	14.73%
19-12	145.2	2.82%
18-13	161.5	0.32%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)	GWC	H	62-48	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Syracuse (2.1)	BE	A	92-56	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Brown (305.2)	Ivy	N	52-54	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	N	83-85	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	A	91-86	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Columbia (150.3)	Ivy	H	41-59	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	75-72	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	55-71	W	100%	0.0
12-4	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	68-42	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Fordham (243.2)	A10	H	81-47	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	59-68	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Towson (304.8)	CAA	A	62-81	W	100%	0.0
12-23	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	81-61	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	51-94	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	77-88	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	61-60	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	53-51	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	A	72-75	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	72-53	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	44-61	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	71-64	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	66-78	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	70-87	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	73-51	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	73-85	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	0-0		44%	-1.6
2-11	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	0-0		81%	9.7
2-14	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		69%	5.3
2-18	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	H	0-0		84%	11.0
2-24	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		97%	19.9
2-26	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	0-0		66%	4.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Manhattan	MAAC	26.44	26.34	70.73	71.58	10.96	11.37
Siena	MAAC	2.77	4.15	47.62	47.76	-0.13	-0.19
Rider	MAAC	4.61	4.13	36.36	37.72	-1.26	-1.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.73	4.13	22.73	25.67	-1.49	-2.01
Iona	MAAC	4.69	4.12	81.82	82.25	2.98	2.66
Canisius	MAAC	2.82	4.12	18.18	21.15	-1.79	-2.38
Niagara	MAAC	4.57	4.10	40.91	44.40	-0.83	-0.46
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.69	4.09	76.19	73.95	1.41	1.96
Marist	MAAC	4.70	4.09	38.10	35.90	-1.12	-1.15
Fairfield	MAAC	2.64	4.04	57.14	56.26	0.38	0.51
Hofstra	CAA	2.21	1.88	33.33	36.57	-0.74	-0.51
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.27	1.83	52.38	55.40	0.11	0.20
George Mason	CAA	2.17	1.80	75.00	71.59	1.08	0.78
Binghamton	AE	2.17	1.78	0.00	4.17	-2.17	-1.63
Columbia	Ivy	2.13	1.77	52.63	53.13	0.11	0.11
Brown	Ivy	2.09	1.75	28.57	24.62	-0.89	-0.89
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	1.74	39.13	36.83	-0.03	-0.46
Fordham	A10	2.13	1.72	42.86	35.74	-0.30	-0.49
Towson	CAA	2.12	1.72	4.17	5.43	-1.94	-1.53
Syracuse	BE	2.05	1.64	95.65	91.74	1.87	1.37
Colorado St.	MWC	2.00	1.61	65.00	59.35	0.60	0.30
Fresno St.	WAC	2.00	1.61	40.91	46.06	-0.36	-0.13
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.00	1.61	35.29	39.97	-0.59	-0.32
Drexel	CAA	0.42	0.35	79.17	78.10	0.24	0.19
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.34	0.32	13.64	16.35	-0.25	-0.22
James Madison	CAA	0.33	0.32	40.00	40.18	-0.07	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.30	0.30	60.00	62.49	0.06	0.07
New Hampshire	AE	0.27	0.28	35.00	38.58	-0.08	-0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.26	0.27	60.00	59.06	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.27	0.27	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.26	0.24	17.39	20.97	-0.17	-0.14
Albany	AE	0.22	0.24	60.00	60.42	0.04	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.25	0.24	60.00	58.29	0.05	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.21	0.24	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.36	0.22	30.43	29.50	-0.14	-0.09
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.21	80.00	78.06	0.07	0.12
Long Island	NEC	0.27	0.19	70.83	71.05	0.11	0.08
Cornell	Ivy	0.19	0.19	36.84	41.45	-0.05	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.14	0.19	90.48	87.91	0.11	0.14
Bucknell	Pat	0.26	0.19	73.91	75.00	0.12	0.10
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	0.19	12.50	13.44	-0.12	-0.14
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.16	14.29	17.17	-0.07	-0.11
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.16	72.22	63.19	0.06	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.16	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.12	0.16	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.14	0.15	30.00	27.84	-0.06	-0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.19	0.14	73.91	68.58	0.09	0.05
Maine	AE	0.13	0.14	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.14	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.14	68.18	63.99	0.03	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.22	0.14	66.67	68.05	0.07	0.05
Providence	BE	0.17	0.13	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.13	20.83	20.60	-0.10	-0.08
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.13	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.21	0.13	28.00	28.91	-0.09	-0.06
La Salle	A10	0.17	0.13	70.83	68.82	0.07	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.17	0.13	68.00	70.03	0.06	0.05
Army	Pat	0.19	0.12	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.15	0.11	8.70	12.13	-0.12	-0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.11	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.13	0.11	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.11	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.11	95.83	92.57	0.12	0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.11	26.09	28.60	-0.04	-0.05
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.11	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.05
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.04
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.11	8.70	13.10	-0.10	-0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.11	69.57	61.31	0.03	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.13	0.11	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.11	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.11	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.04	0.11	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.11	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.17	0.10	60.87	58.16	0.04	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.15	0.09	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.09	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.08	40.91	42.05	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.08	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.08	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.13	0.08	70.83	72.23	0.05	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.08	30.43	31.43	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.08	69.57	68.29	0.05	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.08	73.91	74.91	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.08	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.08	91.30	87.18	0.10	0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.08	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.08	82.61	77.63	0.08	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.06	38.10	37.86	-0.02	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.04	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.05	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.04	0.05	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.05	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.05	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.04	0.05	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.05	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.05	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.04	0.05	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.04	0.05	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.05	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.04	0.05	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.04	0.05	76.19	75.94	0.02	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.05	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.05	18.18	22.22	-0.05	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.05	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.03	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.05	63.64	63.16	0.02	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.05	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.05	21.74	22.76	-0.05	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.05	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.05	81.82	76.80	0.05	0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.05	82.61	84.57	0.06	0.04
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.03	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.00	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.00	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.04	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.00	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.04	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.04	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.04	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.04	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.04	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.04	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.04	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.04	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01