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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:226.6
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:188
Current SOS:182
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12155.70.03%
15-13169.50.85%
14-14185.96.12%
13-15203.018.32%
12-16221.232.77%
11-17240.627.35%
10-18260.112.38%
9-19278.52.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Saint Mary's (38.6)WCCA89-63L0%0.0
11-21Bucknell (168.4)PatH67-80L0%0.0
11-25George Mason (184.2)A10H69-67W100%0.0
11-28Fordham (187.9)A10A87-64L0%0.0
12-4Siena (100.1)MAACA89-54L0%0.0
12-6Marist (312.2)MAACH70-75L0%0.0
12-9Columbia (125.6)IvyH71-72L0%0.0
12-12Memphis (114.1)AmerA89-57L0%0.0
12-14St. Francis NY (283.5)NECH71-60W100%0.0
12-20Morgan St. (329.8)MEACA66-78W100%0.0
12-29Eastern Kentucky (197.1)OVCA76-64L0%0.0
1-2Fairfield (170.0)MAACH72-66W100%0.0
1-4Siena (100.1)MAACH92-87W100%0.0
1-7Canisius (216.9)MAACA86-94W100%0.0
1-9Niagara (308.0)MAACA55-53L0%0.0
1-15Canisius (216.9)MAACH62-65L0%0.0
1-17Niagara (308.0)MAACH69-64W100%0.0
1-21Monmouth (41.5)MAACH78-71W100%0.0
1-29Iona (124.5)MAACA70-56L0%0.0
2-2Rider (226.7)MAACH65-57W100%0.0
2-7Fairfield (170.0)MAACA80-70L0%0.0
2-11Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACH0-066%4.5
2-13Marist (312.2)MAACA0-051%0.3
2-15Monmouth (41.5)MAACA0-05%-17.5
2-21Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACA0-042%-2.2
2-23Saint Peter's (228.2)MAACH0-056%1.6
2-26Iona (124.5)MAACH0-030%-5.8
2-28Rider (226.7)MAACA0-025%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC26.4626.3740.2340.55-5.17-4.99
FairfieldMAAC5.514.6454.5554.420.500.41
RiderMAAC3.184.6241.6742.42-0.53-0.70
SienaMAAC5.464.6265.2265.091.661.39
CanisiusMAAC5.354.5843.4844.99-0.70-0.46
MonmouthMAAC3.164.5882.6183.062.063.03
NiagaraMAAC5.404.5821.7422.81-3.05-2.49
IonaMAAC3.124.5859.0958.920.570.82
MaristMAAC3.064.5819.0521.05-1.90-2.65
QuinnipiacMAAC0.884.5838.1036.81-0.21-1.21
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.892.8838.1041.86-0.21-0.47
BucknellPat2.631.9352.3856.590.130.25
ColumbiaIvy2.531.8865.0063.970.760.52
Morgan St.MEAC2.431.8421.0527.73-1.41-0.82
George MasonA102.441.8236.3635.29-0.67-0.53
St. Francis NYNEC2.381.8239.1344.86-0.52-0.19
FordhamA102.431.8152.6350.520.130.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.381.7950.0048.530.00-0.05
MemphisAmer2.381.7959.0959.460.430.34
Saint Mary'sWCC2.381.7985.0084.831.671.24
WagnerNEC0.410.2963.6465.030.110.09
AlbanyAE0.290.2775.0075.850.150.14
CornellIvy0.350.2742.1140.16-0.06-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.310.2431.5831.79-0.11-0.09
HartfordAE0.190.2426.0926.50-0.09-0.11
VermontAE0.240.2454.1757.520.020.04
St. BonaventureA100.340.2371.4368.970.140.09
BrownIvy0.210.2131.5831.05-0.08-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.160.2156.5256.610.020.03
Holy CrossPat0.160.1939.1338.34-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.210.1852.1753.380.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1854.1755.570.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.1872.2274.710.050.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.320.1882.6178.890.210.10
Loyola MDPat0.250.1834.7837.15-0.08-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.1834.7837.07-0.06-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.220.1530.4335.11-0.08-0.05
DelawareCAA0.160.1521.7423.32-0.09-0.08
LehighPat0.210.1533.3337.25-0.07-0.04
La SalleA100.110.1520.0020.45-0.06-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.200.1547.8348.91-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.100.1322.7324.04-0.06-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.1315.0022.36-0.12-0.07
ColgatePat0.170.1245.4546.10-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1250.0051.910.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.1261.9056.420.010.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1228.0030.73-0.07-0.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1278.2674.420.060.06
RichmondA100.110.1254.5554.490.010.01
YaleIvy0.160.1273.6874.650.070.06
Saint LouisA100.100.1236.3633.47-0.03-0.04
St. John'sBE0.200.1226.0923.72-0.10-0.06
DrexelCAA0.100.1213.6418.14-0.07-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.150.1263.6459.440.040.02
DaytonA100.160.1286.3682.380.120.08
BryantNEC0.140.1225.0026.37-0.07-0.06
HofstraCAA0.190.1265.2264.220.060.03
USCP120.100.1278.2673.060.060.05
MaineAE0.060.0934.7834.00-0.02-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0925.0033.21-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0940.9139.36-0.01-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.0913.0413.54-0.08-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0940.0045.51-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0938.8937.66-0.01-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0965.2261.450.020.02
NorthwesternB100.160.0966.6763.420.050.02
CincinnatiAmer0.160.0970.8370.840.070.04
DavidsonA100.050.0960.0057.960.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0929.1733.15-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0956.5262.780.020.02
Penn St.B100.150.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
VCUA100.110.0973.9173.900.050.04
LongwoodBSth0.160.0922.7324.97-0.09-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0914.2917.92-0.10-0.06
BYUWCC0.110.0766.6769.500.040.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0778.2676.810.030.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0739.1338.57-0.01-0.02
PacificWCC0.110.0725.0028.89-0.06-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0756.5257.280.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0740.0038.50-0.01-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.0731.8229.14-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0754.5550.110.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0730.4331.18-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.0666.6767.690.040.02
AmericanPat0.110.0630.4331.89-0.04-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0657.1459.470.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.450.010.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0640.9149.27-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0615.0015.35-0.07-0.04
HowardMEAC0.120.0638.1040.73-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0630.4326.50-0.04-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0635.0035.98-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0650.0053.300.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0681.8280.030.030.04
HarvardIvy0.060.0635.0038.52-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.860.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0642.8650.41-0.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.040.030.04
DuquesneA100.050.0663.6456.430.010.01
TowsonCAA0.110.0665.2259.750.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0666.6770.540.040.02
VirginiaACC0.110.0682.6178.050.070.03
NJITASun0.110.0654.1755.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0666.6766.540.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0625.0024.36-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.350.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.0682.6178.690.060.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.670.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0613.6415.80-0.07-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.100.0659.0958.880.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.02-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0673.9172.480.050.03
DukeACC0.100.0673.9170.040.050.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0643.4842.01-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0654.1752.340.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0652.6350.220.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.690.040.04
MississippiSEC0.100.0665.2259.020.030.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0669.5765.850.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0675.0070.940.020.02
RadfordBSth0.100.0650.0051.270.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.35-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.130.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0620.0019.66-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0663.6459.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.34-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.700.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.240.010.00
WisconsinB100.100.0660.8755.840.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0365.2262.880.020.01
StanfordP120.060.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0340.0036.77-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0372.7371.620.030.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0328.5728.54-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0328.5729.65-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.5213.52-0.05-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0321.0523.58-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0355.0057.480.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0373.9169.830.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0360.8758.470.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0380.9582.700.040.02
WoffordSC0.060.0340.9145.38-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.440.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.550.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.70-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.15-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.400.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.550.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.30-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.04-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0369.5766.510.000.01
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.79-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.500.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.710.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0372.7370.750.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.160.010.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.040.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.98-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00