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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:234.2
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:175
Current SOS:101
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:169



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-971.00.01%
21-1079.00.01%
20-11108.00.04%
19-12110.90.11%
18-13130.60.44%
17-14143.61.15%
16-15162.33.75%
15-16179.76.77%
14-17198.211.00%
13-18215.614.95%
12-19233.217.09%
11-20249.616.12%
10-21265.613.07%
9-22279.78.41%
8-23293.14.55%
7-24304.51.81%
6-25316.40.57%
5-26323.10.11%
4-27335.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bucknell (97.9)PatA76-64L0%0.0
11-15Winthrop (119.7)BSthH81-94L0%0.0
11-18Hofstra (237.3)CAAH80-68W100%0.0
11-20Temple (58.9)AmerA88-67L0%0.0
11-26Detroit (301.2)HorzA81-84W100%0.0
11-28West Virginia (16.0)B12A108-61L0%0.0
12-2Canisius (211.7)MAACH0-054%1.3
12-4Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACA0-026%-7.8
12-6Morgan St. (332.1)MEACA0-062%3.5
12-10Fordham (205.9)A10H0-042%-2.3
12-17Florida St. (50.8)ACCN0-06%-18.9
12-20St. Francis NY (314.7)NECA0-058%2.5
12-22Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH0-048%-0.7
1-2Marist (236.1)MAACA0-044%-1.7
1-5Fairfield (134.7)MAACH0-039%-3.3
1-7Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACA0-044%-1.9
1-10Niagara (304.2)MAACH0-069%6.0
1-13Rider (212.4)MAACH0-051%0.3
1-17Iona (82.5)MAACH0-027%-7.5
1-20Monmouth (65.5)MAACA0-010%-15.4
1-22Siena (144.9)MAACH0-039%-3.4
1-26Niagara (304.2)MAACA0-049%-0.2
1-28Canisius (211.7)MAACA0-034%-4.9
1-31Fairfield (134.7)MAACA0-022%-9.5
2-4Marist (236.1)MAACH0-065%4.5
2-10Monmouth (65.5)MAACH0-022%-9.2
2-12Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACH0-044%-1.7
2-16Siena (144.9)MAACA0-021%-9.5
2-19Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACH0-064%4.2
2-22Rider (212.4)MAACA0-031%-5.9
2-24Iona (82.5)MAACA0-013%-13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC28.9326.3538.4638.76-6.68-5.93
SienaMAAC0.004.2328.5749.17-0.00-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.004.2360.0051.900.000.16
CanisiusMAAC0.004.2033.3340.53-0.00-0.80
RiderMAAC0.004.2050.0047.240.00-0.23
IonaMAAC0.004.2060.0069.440.001.63
FairfieldMAAC0.004.2083.3361.520.000.97
MaristMAAC0.004.1842.8635.00-0.00-1.25
MonmouthMAAC0.004.1871.4370.720.001.73
NiagaraMAAC0.004.1816.6726.08-0.00-2.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.004.1716.6733.45-0.00-1.38
Florida St.ACC2.121.7585.7161.351.520.40
BucknellPat8.331.7271.4366.593.570.57
FordhamA100.001.7257.1443.200.00-0.23
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.7216.6728.94-0.00-0.72
HofstraCAA8.331.6666.6741.952.78-0.27
TempleAmer9.031.6666.6762.363.010.41
DetroitHorz8.331.640.0020.20-8.33-0.98
West VirginiaB128.931.6480.0079.905.360.98
WinthropBSth8.331.6450.0069.370.000.63
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.6142.8646.58-0.00-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.6116.6737.04-0.00-0.42
DrexelCAA0.000.2642.8636.82-0.00-0.07
WagnerNEC0.000.2433.3353.85-0.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.2150.0042.420.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.2166.6770.740.000.09
Holy CrossPat0.000.2142.8647.69-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.1933.3345.58-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1920.0034.22-0.00-0.06
VermontAE0.600.1862.5071.630.150.08
AlbanyAE0.000.1850.0060.380.000.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.600.1642.8638.05-0.09-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1671.4350.570.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1642.8637.60-0.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1650.0053.530.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1640.0040.65-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.1612.5022.55-0.00-0.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.520.130.0038.35-0.52-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1350.0054.490.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.1333.3331.87-0.00-0.05
George WashingtonA100.000.1357.1444.160.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1150.0064.840.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.110.0034.18-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE2.820.1150.0057.480.000.02
IllinoisB102.220.1157.1442.660.32-0.02
RutgersB100.000.1183.3344.770.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1116.6730.27-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.110.0023.47-0.00-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3340.49-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1183.3370.360.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.1183.3358.030.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.1137.5034.65-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1183.3357.990.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.11100.0075.010.000.05
La SalleA100.600.1160.0051.780.120.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.690.1112.5048.98-0.52-0.00
MassachusettsA100.600.1083.3358.080.400.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1040.0050.91-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.1028.5730.63-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.1087.5078.680.000.06
KansasB120.000.1085.7176.170.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1085.7159.740.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1075.0070.470.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6732.240.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.0925.0033.54-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0950.0051.260.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0925.0038.72-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.600.080.0018.22-0.60-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0024.19-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0850.0052.140.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0840.0057.97-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0883.3377.170.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.32-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.77-0.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.600.0842.8642.47-0.09-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0814.2933.07-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0857.1459.480.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.320.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0885.7163.780.000.02
RichmondA100.520.0857.1448.600.07-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.520.0825.0039.28-0.26-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.0871.4370.330.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0082.550.000.05
NJITASun0.000.0842.8650.32-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0063.95-0.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6770.140.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0620.0048.38-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0583.3376.370.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.690.0583.3380.700.460.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0585.7175.950.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5750.20-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.050.0028.15-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0516.6725.61-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0585.7156.490.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0557.1448.240.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.520.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0540.0043.86-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0540.0055.44-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0516.6735.65-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0024.25-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6753.460.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0041.31-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0575.0047.510.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0550.0071.330.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0056.260.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0528.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0528.5743.62-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0540.0030.80-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0580.0068.320.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0550.0049.010.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
TCUB120.000.05100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.44-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0525.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.520.0571.4352.370.220.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0520.0054.94-0.000.01
FurmanSC0.830.0320.0049.38-0.50-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.690.0350.0055.850.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
BradleyMVC0.600.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
South DakotaSum0.600.0357.1447.220.09-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0316.6733.82-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
ButlerBE0.520.03100.0075.690.520.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.320.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.690.030.0024.77-0.69-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.520.0316.6740.71-0.35-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.520.0357.1448.860.07-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0333.3364.14-0.000.01