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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:229.0
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:204
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:10-12
Expected Conf Record:10-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:226
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18229.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA89-63L0%0.0
11-21Bucknell (183.0)PatH67-80L0%0.0
11-25George Mason (201.0)A10H69-67W100%0.0
11-28Fordham (176.0)A10A87-64L0%0.0
12-4Siena (104.0)MAACA89-54L0%0.0
12-6Marist (318.0)MAACH70-75L0%0.0
12-9Columbia (132.0)IvyH71-72L0%0.0
12-12Memphis (139.0)AmerA89-57L0%0.0
12-14St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH71-60W100%0.0
12-20Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA66-78W100%0.0
12-29Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA76-64L0%0.0
1-2Fairfield (142.0)MAACH72-66W100%0.0
1-4Siena (104.0)MAACH92-87W100%0.0
1-7Canisius (220.0)MAACA86-94W100%0.0
1-9Niagara (315.0)MAACA55-53L0%0.0
1-15Canisius (220.0)MAACH62-65L0%0.0
1-17Niagara (315.0)MAACH69-64W100%0.0
1-21Monmouth (52.0)MAACH78-71W100%0.0
1-29Iona (77.0)MAACA70-56L0%0.0
2-2Rider (242.0)MAACH65-57W100%0.0
2-7Fairfield (142.0)MAACA80-70L0%0.0
2-11Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACH84-77W100%0.0
2-13Marist (318.0)MAACA73-81W100%0.0
2-15Monmouth (52.0)MAACA79-70L0%0.0
2-17Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACA70-69L0%0.0
2-21Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA59-63W100%0.0
2-23Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH40-61L0%0.0
2-26Iona (77.0)MAACH73-86L0%0.0
2-28Rider (242.0)MAACA60-57L0%0.0
3-3Marist (318.0)MAACN81-63W100%0.0
3-5Siena (104.0)MAACA89-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC26.5126.5142.2242.22-4.12-4.12
SienaMAAC5.895.8963.3363.331.571.57
MaristMAAC5.795.7922.2222.22-3.22-3.22
IonaMAAC4.414.4166.6766.671.471.47
FairfieldMAAC4.404.4060.0060.000.880.88
MonmouthMAAC4.404.4081.2581.252.752.75
RiderMAAC4.374.3738.7138.71-0.99-0.99
CanisiusMAAC4.344.3441.9441.94-0.70-0.70
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.314.3142.8642.86-0.62-0.62
NiagaraMAAC4.294.2920.0020.00-2.57-2.57
QuinnipiacMAAC4.284.2832.1432.14-1.53-1.53
BucknellPat1.761.7653.5753.570.130.13
ColumbiaIvy1.691.6964.2964.290.480.48
St. Francis NYNEC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC1.661.6627.5927.59-0.74-0.74
George MasonA101.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
FordhamA101.641.6453.5753.570.120.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
MemphisAmer1.611.6154.5554.550.150.15
Saint Mary'sWCC1.611.6183.3383.331.081.08
AlbanyAE0.280.2874.1974.190.140.14
CornellIvy0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.260.2660.6160.610.050.05
WagnerNEC0.250.2567.7467.740.090.09
BrownIvy0.240.2425.9325.93-0.12-0.12
DartmouthIvy0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
HartfordAE0.230.2328.1228.12-0.10-0.10
St. BonaventureA100.230.2373.3373.330.110.11
Holy CrossPat0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.190.1977.7877.780.100.10
ArmyPat0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
DelawareCAA0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
RichmondA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
LehighPat0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
La SalleA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
ColgatePat0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
DrexelCAA0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
USCP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01