live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:286.4
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:295
Current SOS:306
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10126.00.01%
18-11150.60.05%
17-12172.00.29%
16-13191.20.92%
15-14213.12.79%
14-15234.96.99%
13-16256.111.85%
12-17275.116.80%
11-18291.719.16%
10-19305.518.15%
9-20315.812.43%
8-21324.06.77%
7-22330.42.79%
6-23336.30.76%
5-24341.20.19%
4-25345.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Florida St. (208.6)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
11-18Massachusetts (89.3)A10A77-68L0%0.0
11-22Binghamton (342.1)AEN63-78W100%0.0
11-23Northeastern (133.4)CAAN65-51L0%0.0
11-29George Mason (217.2)A10A64-63L0%0.0
12-5Fairfield (247.9)MAACA67-54L0%0.0
12-7Marist (329.3)MAACH60-38W100%0.0
12-14Rutgers (159.4)B10N63-55L0%0.0
12-17Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCA65-56L0%0.0
12-20Morgan St. (302.2)MEACH0-077%8.5
12-22Fordham (262.5)A10H0-072%6.9
1-2Niagara (281.4)MAACA0-047%-0.9
1-4Canisius (127.5)MAACA0-020%-10.0
1-7Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACH0-053%0.9
1-10Niagara (281.4)MAACH0-075%7.8
1-16Saint Peter's (222.8)MAACA0-025%-7.9
1-18Rider (186.5)MAACH0-055%1.3
1-23Quinnipiac (228.3)MAACA0-029%-6.6
1-25Monmouth (176.5)MAACH0-048%-0.7
1-30Siena (213.1)MAACH0-054%1.2
2-1Monmouth (176.5)MAACA0-021%-9.4
2-6Canisius (127.5)MAACH0-046%-1.3
2-8Rider (186.5)MAACA0-026%-7.4
2-13Iona (80.3)MAACH0-029%-6.5
2-15Fairfield (247.9)MAACH0-070%6.2
2-21Siena (213.1)MAACA0-026%-7.5
2-23Marist (329.3)MAACA0-059%2.7
2-27Iona (80.3)MAACA0-010%-15.2
3-1Quinnipiac (228.3)MAACH0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC27.6626.4124.2437.20-14.25-6.76
MonmouthMAAC0.284.5544.4455.96-0.030.54
IonaMAAC0.004.5566.6772.260.002.02
SienaMAAC0.284.5433.3348.09-0.09-0.17
RiderMAAC0.004.5250.0052.690.000.24
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.284.5236.3646.66-0.08-0.30
FairfieldMAAC5.864.5137.5038.29-1.47-1.06
CanisiusMAAC0.284.5155.5661.170.031.01
NiagaraMAAC0.314.5112.5028.60-0.23-1.93
MaristMAAC5.564.4811.1118.52-4.32-2.82
QuinnipiacMAAC0.314.4844.4449.08-0.03-0.08
MassachusettsA106.142.0555.5653.790.680.16
FordhamA100.001.9228.5728.07-0.00-0.84
PittsburghACC5.561.8462.5051.281.390.05
George MasonA105.561.8414.2923.75-3.97-0.97
NortheasternCAA6.421.8462.5056.481.600.24
Florida St.ACC6.141.8444.4436.17-0.68-0.51
RutgersB105.561.8455.5632.750.62-0.63
Morgan St.MEAC0.001.7818.1836.44-0.00-0.48
BinghamtonAE5.561.720.0012.29-5.56-1.30
St. BonaventureA100.310.3575.0065.210.150.11
AlbanyAE0.000.3033.3348.78-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.2950.0050.810.000.00
La SalleA100.000.2650.0049.930.00-0.00
PennIvy0.560.2637.5033.00-0.14-0.09
VermontAE0.000.2444.4457.69-0.000.04
CornellIvy0.620.2355.5648.170.07-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.2055.5640.440.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.830.2066.6742.760.28-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.1887.5076.810.000.10
LehighPat0.000.1737.5047.68-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.590.1740.0036.30-0.12-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.590.1733.3342.54-0.20-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.560.1777.7869.590.310.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.310.1722.2230.49-0.17-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1577.7870.500.000.06
Rhode IslandA100.000.1562.5073.430.000.07
George WashingtonA100.280.1566.6766.380.090.05
RichmondA100.000.1555.5657.270.000.02
MarylandB100.000.1490.9167.370.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.1437.5047.90-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.350.1433.3340.96-0.12-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1466.6751.280.000.00
DaytonA100.000.1277.7869.970.000.05
MaineAE0.000.1211.1121.27-0.00-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.000.1233.3355.14-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1260.0033.900.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1270.0071.450.000.05
Loyola MDPat0.000.1233.3327.57-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.310.1228.5731.22-0.13-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.1290.9153.570.000.01
Notre DameACC0.830.1190.9172.430.680.05
DukeACC0.310.11100.0087.560.310.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1154.5559.120.000.02
WoffordSC0.310.1177.7875.790.170.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1155.5638.620.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.280.1160.0044.120.06-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0036.23-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.1177.7851.830.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.1114.2933.57-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0038.520.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0988.8964.830.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0955.5654.330.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0938.4644.31-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0957.1453.100.000.01
New HampshireAE0.280.0957.1464.570.040.03
ArmyPat0.560.0977.7868.880.310.03
ProvidenceBE0.560.0972.7353.500.250.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.350.0950.0045.370.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.350.0990.0067.450.280.03
HawaiiBW0.590.0966.6754.760.200.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0818.1831.71-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0840.0046.66-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.0828.5741.46-0.12-0.01
IndianaB100.310.0880.0057.340.190.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0085.970.000.06
Miami FLACC0.000.0881.8266.320.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0872.7373.190.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0850.0040.680.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.280.0890.0067.320.220.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0822.2240.60-0.15-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6758.330.000.01
VirginiaACC0.280.08100.0085.760.280.06
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.48-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.91-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.98-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.570.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5659.230.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.97-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.00-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7366.650.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.350.0690.0078.440.280.03
NavyPat0.590.0620.0021.61-0.35-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0061.960.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.67-0.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0630.0029.59-0.11-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0645.4550.81-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.310.0650.0073.610.000.03
South DakotaSum0.310.0627.2738.75-0.14-0.01
VMISC0.280.0633.3338.93-0.09-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5057.080.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.52-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.72-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.43-0.00-0.05
HarvardIvy0.590.0685.7172.890.420.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.860.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3333.03-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.840.000.01
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.210.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.460.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.280.0666.6744.280.09-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0072.100.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.670.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.96-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.770.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.300.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.18-0.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.800.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.650.000.01
ColgatePat0.280.0320.0043.07-0.17-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5038.31-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.350.0370.0058.740.140.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.320.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.350.0390.0081.790.280.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.640.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0027.89-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.00-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4347.640.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.06-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0360.0049.590.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.79-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.89-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8642.92-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5746.99-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6768.290.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.310.0342.8638.86-0.04-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.280.0342.8649.88-0.04-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.82-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.140.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.120.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.430.000.01
Kansas St.B120.310.0360.0037.150.06-0.01
LSUSEC0.280.0380.0064.030.170.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0066.580.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.610.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.280.0350.0057.210.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.370.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.32-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.460.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.380.000.00
SamfordSC0.310.0333.3331.23-0.10-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.310.0370.0073.030.120.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0344.4444.86-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.120.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.15-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.280.0316.6730.30-0.19-0.01
UCFAmer0.280.0355.5634.700.03-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.280.0375.0060.310.140.01
Western MichiganMAC0.310.0362.5055.010.080.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.540.000.02