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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:60.0
Current RPI:60
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:171
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:18-5
Expected Conf Record:18-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:186



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-760.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9La Salle (98.0)A10A90-99W100%0.0
11-12Columbia (130.0)IvyA70-71W100%0.0
11-16George Washington (29.0)A10H74-80L0%0.0
11-20Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA70-79W100%0.0
11-26Fordham (226.0)A10H75-79L0%0.0
11-30Hofstra (277.0)CAAA59-66W100%0.0
12-6Marist (250.0)MAACA59-70W100%0.0
12-8Monmouth (292.0)MAACH75-66W100%0.0
12-15UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAA72-77W100%0.0
12-17South Carolina (140.0)SECA68-86W100%0.0
12-21Buffalo (106.0)MACN84-81W100%0.0
1-2Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACA62-74W100%0.0
1-4Fairfield (289.0)MAACH83-57W100%0.0
1-9Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA81-76L0%0.0
1-12Marist (250.0)MAACH86-79W100%0.0
1-16Siena (193.0)MAACH90-68W100%0.0
1-18Fairfield (289.0)MAACA71-67L0%0.0
1-24Rider (198.0)MAACH67-51W100%0.0
1-26Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH86-90L0%0.0
1-31Iona (59.0)MAACA85-73L0%0.0
2-4Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH64-49W100%0.0
2-7Canisius (96.0)MAACA73-84W100%0.0
2-9Niagara (302.0)MAACA77-78W100%0.0
2-13Rider (198.0)MAACA69-86W100%0.0
2-16Niagara (302.0)MAACH90-72W100%0.0
2-19Monmouth (292.0)MAACA61-75W100%0.0
2-21Siena (193.0)MAACA67-63L0%0.0
2-28Iona (59.0)MAACH80-77W100%0.0
3-2Canisius (96.0)MAACH68-63W100%0.0
3-8Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACN72-58W100%0.0
3-9Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACN87-68W100%0.0
3-10Iona (59.0)MAACN68-71W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC26.5926.5979.8879.8815.8915.89
IonaMAAC5.785.7872.4172.412.592.59
QuinnipiacMAAC5.745.7464.2964.291.641.64
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.725.7250.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC4.324.3222.5822.58-2.37-2.37
CanisiusMAAC4.314.3170.0070.001.731.73
SienaMAAC4.294.2946.6746.67-0.29-0.29
RiderMAAC4.284.2848.2848.28-0.15-0.15
MonmouthMAAC4.264.2636.6736.67-1.14-1.14
FairfieldMAAC4.244.2420.0020.00-2.54-2.54
MaristMAAC4.214.2141.3841.38-0.73-0.73
HofstraCAA1.761.7631.2531.25-0.66-0.66
La SalleA101.761.7650.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA101.731.7330.0030.00-0.69-0.69
George WashingtonA101.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
BuffaloMAC1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.631.6324.1424.14-0.84-0.84
ColumbiaIvy1.561.5662.0762.070.380.38
Illinois St.MVC1.561.5651.7251.720.050.05
South CarolinaSEC1.561.5642.4242.42-0.24-0.24
St. BonaventureA100.370.3753.1253.120.020.02
PennIvy0.270.2728.5728.57-0.12-0.12
HartfordAE0.250.2551.5251.520.010.01
DaytonA100.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
George MasonA100.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.16-0.16
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
VCUA100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
AlbanyAE0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
RichmondA100.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Seton HallBE0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
LehighPat0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
VermontAE0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
ElonSC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
WagnerNEC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
St. John'sBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00