Manhattan

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	183.0
Current RPI:	183
Expected SOS:	144
Current SOS:	144
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Conf Record:	11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	245
Expected OOC SOS:	196

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	183.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Louisville (3.0)	BE	A	79-51	L	0%
11-16	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	79-45	L	0%
11-21	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	67-56	W	100%
11-24	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	66-58	L	0%
11-29	Fordham (228.0)	A10	A	58-65	W	100%
12-2	George Washington (147.0)	A10	A	67-55	L	0%
12-7	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	62-58	L	0%
12-9	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	75-55	W	100%
12-16	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	75-48	L	0%
12-22	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	H	57-63	L	0%
12-29	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	69-58	L	0%
1-1	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	44-50	L	0%
1-4	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	53-55	W	100%
1-6	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	78-70	L	0%
1-10	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	60-69	L	0%
1-13	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	65-53	W	100%
1-17	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	64-60	L	0%
1-19	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	64-60	L	0%
1-25	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	41-51	L	0%
1-27	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	51-62	W	100%
2-1	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	66-63	L	0%
2-3	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	57-49	W	100%
2-7	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	67-54	W	100%
2-12	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	40-62	W	100%
2-15	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	74-73	W	100%
2-17	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	56-60	L	0%
2-23	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	A	64-65	W	100%
3-1	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	34-31	W	100%
3-3	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	63-61	L	0%
3-9	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	N	52-55	W	100%
3-10	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	N	60-42	W	100%
3-11	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	N	60-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Manhattan	MAAC	26.52	26.52	46.48	46.48	-1.87	-1.87
Fairfield	MAAC	5.70	5.70	61.29	61.29	1.29	1.29
Iona	MAAC	5.67	5.67	60.00	60.00	1.13	1.13
Loyola MD	MAAC	5.57	5.57	65.52	65.52	1.73	1.73
Niagara	MAAC	4.20	4.20	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Siena	MAAC	4.18	4.18	23.33	23.33	-2.23	-2.23
Rider	MAAC	4.17	4.17	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Canisius	MAAC	4.17	4.17	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
Marist	MAAC	4.15	4.15	31.03	31.03	-1.58	-1.58
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.14	4.14	32.14	32.14	-1.48	-1.48
Fordham	A10	1.76	1.76	23.33	23.33	-0.94	-0.94
Stony Brook	AE	1.71	1.71	75.86	75.86	0.89	0.89
Columbia	Ivy	1.69	1.69	36.00	36.00	-0.47	-0.47
Long Island	NEC	1.67	1.67	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Buffalo	MAC	1.66	1.66	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Harvard	Ivy	1.65	1.65	65.38	65.38	0.51	0.51
George Washington	A10	1.64	1.64	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Dayton	A10	1.61	1.61	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Hofstra	CAA	1.61	1.61	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
South Carolina	SEC	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Louisville	BE	1.56	1.56	84.85	84.85	1.09	1.09
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.32	0.32	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.27	0.27	70.00	70.00	0.11	0.11
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.27	0.27	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.27	0.27	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
Vermont	AE	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.22	0.22	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.22	0.22	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.21	0.21	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Boston University	AE	0.21	0.21	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.20	0.20	6.90	6.90	-0.18	-0.18
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	84.38	84.38	0.14	0.14
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.18	0.18	23.33	23.33	-0.09	-0.09
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.17	0.17	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Hartford	AE	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Temple	A10	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Rhode Island	A10	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00