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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:168.0
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:275
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:16-7
Expected Conf Record:16-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:296
Expected OOC SOS:325



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-13168.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Florida St. (110.0)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
11-18Massachusetts (80.0)A10A77-68L0%0.0
11-22Binghamton (332.0)AEN63-78W100%0.0
11-23Northeastern (86.0)CAAN65-51L0%0.0
11-29George Mason (221.0)A10A64-63L0%0.0
12-5Fairfield (299.0)MAACA67-54L0%0.0
12-7Marist (317.0)MAACH60-38W100%0.0
12-14Rutgers (178.0)B10N63-55L0%0.0
12-17Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA65-56L0%0.0
12-20Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH73-69W100%0.0
12-22Fordham (238.0)A10N57-71W100%0.0
1-2Niagara (287.0)MAACA73-61L0%0.0
1-4Canisius (180.0)MAACA60-63W100%0.0
1-7Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH68-63W100%0.0
1-10Niagara (287.0)MAACH84-75W100%0.0
1-16Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA65-72W100%0.0
1-18Rider (140.0)MAACH79-82L0%0.0
1-23Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACA73-59L0%0.0
1-25Monmouth (176.0)MAACH71-64W100%0.0
1-30Siena (261.0)MAACH87-79W100%0.0
2-1Monmouth (176.0)MAACA76-87W100%0.0
2-6Canisius (180.0)MAACH78-69W100%0.0
2-8Rider (140.0)MAACA85-77L0%0.0
2-13Iona (51.0)MAACH67-70L0%0.0
2-15Fairfield (299.0)MAACH79-70W100%0.0
2-21Siena (261.0)MAACA74-80W100%0.0
2-23Marist (317.0)MAACA54-67W100%0.0
2-27Iona (51.0)MAACA79-75L0%0.0
3-1Quinnipiac (226.0)MAACH69-65W100%0.0
3-7Marist (317.0)MAACN74-58W100%0.0
3-8Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACN65-48W100%0.0
3-9Iona (51.0)MAACN69-79W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC26.5626.5663.0463.046.936.93
IonaMAAC5.835.8377.4277.423.203.20
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.805.8051.6151.610.190.19
MaristMAAC5.725.7224.1424.14-2.96-2.96
MonmouthMAAC4.334.3358.0658.060.700.70
SienaMAAC4.324.3237.9337.93-1.04-1.04
RiderMAAC4.254.2563.3363.331.131.13
FairfieldMAAC4.244.2420.6920.69-2.49-2.49
NiagaraMAAC4.224.2225.0025.00-2.11-2.11
QuinnipiacMAAC4.224.2250.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC4.224.2257.1457.140.600.60
MassachusettsA101.861.8651.6151.610.060.06
FordhamA101.761.7631.0331.03-0.67-0.67
George MasonA101.711.7124.1424.14-0.88-0.88
RutgersB101.681.6829.0329.03-0.70-0.70
PittsburghACC1.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
NortheasternCAA1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
Florida St.ACC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC1.611.6123.3323.33-0.86-0.86
BinghamtonAE1.561.5617.2417.24-1.02-1.02
St. BonaventureA100.310.3158.0658.060.050.05
HartfordAE0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.270.2751.5251.520.010.01
AlbanyAE0.260.2675.0075.000.130.13
PennIvy0.250.2532.1432.14-0.09-0.09
CornellIvy0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
BucknellPat0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
LehighPat0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
ElonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Stony BrookAE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
VCUA100.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
RichmondA100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
MarylandB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
ClemsonACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
ArmyPat0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
HawaiiBW0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
WagnerNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00