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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Manhattan

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:263.0
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:174
Current SOS:174
Current Record:10-22
Expected Record:10-22
Current Conf Record:5-16
Expected Conf Record:5-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:167
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-22263.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Manhattan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bucknell (63.0)PatA76-64L0%0.0
11-15Winthrop (70.0)BSthH81-94L0%0.0
11-18Hofstra (196.0)CAAH80-68W100%0.0
11-20Temple (137.0)AmerA88-67L0%0.0
11-26Detroit (289.0)HorzA81-84W100%0.0
11-28West Virginia (24.0)B12A108-61L0%0.0
12-2Canisius (171.0)MAACH76-77L0%0.0
12-4Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA84-70L0%0.0
12-6Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA85-82L0%0.0
12-10Fordham (215.0)A10H60-53W100%0.0
12-17Florida St. (14.0)ACCN83-67L0%0.0
12-20St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA54-61W100%0.0
12-22Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH81-54W100%0.0
1-2Marist (276.0)MAACA90-88L0%0.0
1-5Fairfield (180.0)MAACH79-97L0%0.0
1-7Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACA81-72L0%0.0
1-10Niagara (275.0)MAACH78-69W100%0.0
1-13Rider (198.0)MAACH76-73W100%0.0
1-17Iona (89.0)MAACH67-82L0%0.0
1-20Monmouth (49.0)MAACA82-71L0%0.0
1-22Siena (122.0)MAACH68-81L0%0.0
1-26Niagara (275.0)MAACA69-70W100%0.0
1-28Canisius (171.0)MAACA78-64L0%0.0
1-31Fairfield (180.0)MAACA78-49L0%0.0
2-4Marist (276.0)MAACH68-67W100%0.0
2-10Monmouth (49.0)MAACH58-62L0%0.0
2-12Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH50-69L0%0.0
2-16Siena (122.0)MAACA94-71L0%0.0
2-19Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACH95-74W100%0.0
2-22Rider (198.0)MAACA93-82L0%0.0
2-24Iona (89.0)MAACA72-51L0%0.0
3-2Rider (198.0)MAACN69-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Manhattan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Manhattan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Manhattan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
ManhattanMAAC26.3626.3630.0030.00-10.54-10.54
RiderMAAC5.635.6353.3353.330.380.38
SienaMAAC4.244.2446.8846.88-0.26-0.26
IonaMAAC4.234.2362.5062.501.061.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC4.184.1856.6756.670.560.56
CanisiusMAAC4.164.1651.6151.610.130.13
NiagaraMAAC4.144.1432.2632.26-1.47-1.47
MonmouthMAAC4.134.1380.6580.652.532.53
FairfieldMAAC4.104.1050.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC4.084.0823.3323.33-2.18-2.18
QuinnipiacMAAC4.084.0831.0331.03-1.55-1.55
Florida St.ACC1.681.6875.0075.000.840.84
FordhamA101.681.6840.0040.00-0.34-0.34
BucknellPat1.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6610.3410.34-1.32-1.32
TempleAmer1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
West VirginiaB121.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
DetroitHorz1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
WinthropBSth1.591.5979.3179.310.930.93
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
DrexelCAA0.270.2725.8125.81-0.13-0.13
WagnerNEC0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
BrownIvy0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
HartfordAE0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LafayettePat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
RutgersB100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
NevadaMWC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
PacificWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
LehighPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01