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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


UCF

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:68.3
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:81
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:72
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-623.00.01%
23-723.40.09%
22-832.20.88%
21-940.04.51%
20-1049.012.88%
19-1158.423.81%
18-1269.027.02%
17-1382.019.86%
16-1497.08.79%
15-15113.91.85%
14-16132.30.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCF.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mercer (170.4)SCH88-79W100%0.0
11-15Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthH68-65W100%0.0
11-18William & Mary (95.1)CAAH75-64W100%0.0
11-23Nebraska (100.5)B10N68-59W100%0.0
11-24West Virginia (15.9)B12N45-83L0%0.0
11-26St. John's (95.3)BEN43-46L0%0.0
11-30Missouri (45.0)SECH59-62L0%0.0
12-3Alabama (40.5)SECA62-65W100%0.0
12-9Southern (302.8)SWACH76-60W100%0.0
12-12Southeastern Louisiana (205.0)SlndH61-53W100%0.0
12-19Stetson (305.8)ASunA55-74W100%0.0
12-21South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACH89-64W100%0.0
12-27SMU (42.6)AmerA56-51L0%0.0
12-31East Carolina (279.7)AmerA39-59W100%0.0
1-3Memphis (118.6)AmerH65-56W100%0.0
1-7Temple (61.5)AmerH60-39W100%0.0
1-10Connecticut (102.6)AmerA62-53L0%0.0
1-16Cincinnati (11.4)AmerH38-49L0%0.0
1-20South Florida (296.6)AmerA69-71W100%0.0
1-25Wichita St. (18.0)AmerA0-013%-12.8
1-31Connecticut (102.6)AmerH0-073%6.8
2-3Houston (42.5)AmerH0-046%-1.2
2-6Cincinnati (11.4)AmerA0-09%-14.8
2-11Memphis (118.6)AmerA0-055%1.5
2-14South Florida (296.6)AmerH0-096%20.0
2-17SMU (42.6)AmerH0-039%-3.0
2-21Tulsa (128.6)AmerA0-050%0.1
2-25Temple (61.5)AmerA0-041%-2.6
3-1Wichita St. (18.0)AmerH0-028%-6.4
3-4Tulane (107.7)AmerH0-075%7.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCF's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCF's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCF.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCFAmer26.3426.2265.5258.278.174.34
MemphisAmer2.984.0768.4261.041.100.90
CincinnatiAmer2.974.0788.8984.862.312.84
ConnecticutAmer2.774.0550.0046.280.00-0.30
Wichita St.Amer0.274.0478.9577.220.162.20
South FloridaAmer2.984.0236.8427.80-0.78-1.79
SMUAmer2.844.0268.4269.901.041.60
TempleAmer2.834.0255.5653.310.310.27
TulaneAmer0.492.4963.1659.030.130.45
HoustonAmer0.202.4678.9573.630.121.16
TulsaAmer0.342.4655.0053.440.030.17
East CarolinaAmer2.902.4344.4433.63-0.32-0.79
AlabamaSEC2.771.7872.2260.951.230.39
MissouriSEC2.771.7564.7161.930.810.42
MercerSC2.771.7547.0656.82-0.160.24
StetsonASun2.761.7535.2938.35-0.81-0.41
NebraskaB102.771.7370.0061.811.110.41
St. John'sBE2.771.7244.4440.16-0.31-0.34
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.631.6956.2557.070.330.24
SouthernSWAC2.631.6929.4142.44-1.08-0.26
West VirginiaB122.701.6983.3377.441.800.93
Gardner WebbBSth2.631.6741.1842.30-0.46-0.26
South Carolina St.MEAC2.631.6729.4132.85-1.08-0.57
William & MaryCAA2.631.6768.7562.290.990.41
New OrleansSlnd0.200.2237.5045.24-0.05-0.02
AuburnSEC0.280.2289.4777.000.220.12
Coppin St.MEAC0.280.229.5217.90-0.22-0.14
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.2027.7834.50-0.07-0.06
DrexelCAA0.220.1730.0030.99-0.09-0.07
FloridaSEC0.220.1773.6871.560.100.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.1630.0036.50-0.08-0.04
VillanovaBE0.210.1694.7490.310.190.13
ArkansasSEC0.140.1668.4264.200.050.05
LSUSEC0.140.1661.1153.170.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1672.2258.920.060.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.1566.6765.640.020.05
SamfordSC0.220.1427.7832.66-0.10-0.05
TCUB120.140.1473.6865.600.070.04
BaylorB120.140.1461.1156.090.030.02
WisconsinB100.210.1450.0046.300.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1468.4254.090.030.01
OklahomaB120.070.1477.7867.910.040.05
Texas A&MSEC0.210.1468.4263.960.080.04
ArizonaP120.200.1380.0078.940.120.08
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1233.3333.77-0.05-0.04
CampbellBSth0.220.1247.0647.41-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.1220.0041.73-0.09-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.1257.8966.260.010.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1245.0049.29-0.02-0.00
LibertyBSth0.150.1250.0054.190.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.1236.8444.11-0.06-0.01
ElonCAA0.140.1252.6351.080.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1150.0052.460.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.117.1414.82-0.12-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1121.0539.48-0.04-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1116.6724.26-0.09-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1138.8935.37-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1168.4260.550.000.02
IllinoisB100.210.1147.3744.27-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.210.1166.6755.940.070.01
South CarolinaSEC0.210.1161.1151.910.050.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1129.4139.63-0.06-0.02
Iowa St.B120.070.1161.1147.220.02-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.1127.7831.11-0.03-0.04
KentuckySEC0.000.1173.6867.970.000.04
XavierBE0.140.1185.7180.080.100.07
USC UpstateASun0.150.0911.1118.00-0.11-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.0916.6724.91-0.10-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0922.2227.33-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.150.0943.7549.23-0.02-0.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0931.5835.15-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.140.0952.9459.340.010.02
NJITASun0.140.0938.8942.61-0.03-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0925.0031.45-0.07-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0927.7827.10-0.06-0.04
RadfordBSth0.140.0957.8958.850.020.02
WinthropBSth0.150.0950.0059.450.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0928.5731.26-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0950.0051.380.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.090.0010.67-0.15-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0978.9576.750.080.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0910.0019.63-0.12-0.05
FurmanSC0.150.0966.6768.540.050.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0938.8943.43-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0963.1661.020.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0912.5025.450.00-0.04
MaristMAAC0.210.0821.0522.02-0.12-0.05
FIUCUSA0.140.0835.2935.54-0.04-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0810.5316.75-0.05-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.080.009.09-0.21-0.07
La SalleA100.140.0840.0042.69-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.0826.6729.04-0.07-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.150.0872.2268.930.060.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0870.0060.470.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0850.0051.640.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0823.5325.64-0.07-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.0820.0023.34-0.08-0.04
HowardMEAC0.140.0810.5327.29-0.11-0.04
RutgersB100.070.0855.0046.690.01-0.01
UCLAP120.140.0865.0062.050.040.02
CreightonBE0.130.0875.0070.700.070.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0852.6345.860.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0873.6862.720.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.210.0840.0043.35-0.04-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0857.8950.710.010.00
KansasB120.130.0884.2179.750.090.05
Michigan St.B100.130.0885.0083.200.090.05
MinnesotaB100.130.0863.6457.630.040.01
TexasB120.140.0863.1657.630.040.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0657.8959.490.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.150.0625.0028.24-0.08-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0663.1663.220.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0663.1665.970.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.150.0668.4263.650.060.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0652.9452.650.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.16-0.05-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0652.6358.590.000.01
Green BayHorz0.150.0625.0027.94-0.07-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0680.9576.520.050.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.08-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0650.0054.890.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0680.0078.850.090.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.150.040.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.82-0.05-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5656.740.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0643.7554.11-0.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0621.0544.26-0.04-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0618.7518.360.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.600.030.02
VMISC0.070.0625.0024.15-0.04-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.690.000.02
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.250.030.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0652.3848.530.01-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0689.4785.210.060.04
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0665.0054.670.040.01
IowaB100.070.0647.6244.02-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0666.6763.070.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0636.8431.120.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.240.050.03
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.31-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.0668.4254.070.050.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0647.3746.090.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.41-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.720.020.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0675.0067.890.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.980.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0621.0524.750.00-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0531.5829.06-0.03-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0541.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0536.8435.57-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0533.3337.23-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0578.9576.990.040.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0550.0053.260.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0572.2274.930.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0523.5328.21-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0550.0051.030.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0520.0032.25-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.97-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0527.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0511.1115.29-0.05-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
OregonP120.070.0565.0063.850.020.01
Penn St.B100.060.0561.9055.760.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0531.5834.36-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0536.8445.21-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.230.030.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
UMBCAE0.070.0555.5655.540.010.01
USCP120.070.0571.4368.280.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0545.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0568.4270.810.020.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0561.1156.830.020.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0571.4370.240.030.02
BryantNEC0.070.059.5217.12-0.05-0.04
Little RockSB0.070.0522.2225.25-0.04-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0578.9569.790.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0522.2228.66-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0566.6773.210.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0528.5729.94-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.070.0561.1164.130.010.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.035.8819.35-0.07-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.370.050.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0377.7870.480.040.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.130.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.037.6923.280.00-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.300.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.50-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0345.0041.330.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.640.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0366.6765.520.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0360.0064.110.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0340.0042.520.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0350.0050.860.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0330.0032.520.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.920.00-0.00
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.710.020.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.230.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
MichiganB100.060.0376.1970.740.030.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0355.0050.330.010.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0390.4888.370.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.050.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.140.060.02