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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


UCF

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:84.0
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:67
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1384.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCF.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Mercer (174.0)SCH88-79W100%0.0
11-15Gardner Webb (244.0)BSthH68-65W100%0.0
11-18William & Mary (94.0)CAAH75-64W100%0.0
11-23Nebraska (56.0)B10N68-59W100%0.0
11-24West Virginia (27.0)B12N45-83L0%0.0
11-26St. John's (92.0)BEN43-46L0%0.0
11-30Missouri (43.0)SECH59-62L0%0.0
12-3Alabama (42.0)SECA62-65W100%0.0
12-9Southern (315.0)SWACH76-60W100%0.0
12-12Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndH61-53W100%0.0
12-19Stetson (325.0)ASunA55-74W100%0.0
12-21South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH89-64W100%0.0
12-27SMU (113.0)AmerA56-51L0%0.0
12-31East Carolina (274.0)AmerA39-59W100%0.0
1-3Memphis (106.0)AmerH65-56W100%0.0
1-7Temple (52.0)AmerH60-39W100%0.0
1-10Connecticut (123.0)AmerA62-53L0%0.0
1-16Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH38-49L0%0.0
1-20South Florida (278.0)AmerA69-71W100%0.0
1-25Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA81-62L0%0.0
1-31Connecticut (123.0)AmerH70-61W100%0.0
2-3Houston (18.0)AmerH65-69L0%0.0
2-6Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA77-40L0%0.0
2-11Memphis (106.0)AmerA64-68W100%0.0
2-14South Florida (278.0)AmerH72-57W100%0.0
2-17SMU (113.0)AmerH52-37W100%0.0
2-21Tulsa (89.0)AmerA70-61L0%0.0
2-25Temple (52.0)AmerA75-56L0%0.0
3-1Wichita St. (16.0)AmerH71-75L0%0.0
3-4Tulane (175.0)AmerH60-51W100%0.0
3-8East Carolina (274.0)AmerN66-52W100%0.0
3-9Houston (18.0)AmerN56-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCF's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCF's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCF.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCFAmer26.2226.2257.0457.043.693.69
CincinnatiAmer3.993.9987.5087.502.992.99
MemphisAmer3.983.9865.6265.621.241.24
HoustonAmer3.973.9777.4277.422.182.18
SMUAmer3.933.9351.6151.610.130.13
Wichita St.Amer3.923.9276.6776.672.092.09
South FloridaAmer3.883.8833.3333.33-1.29-1.29
TempleAmer3.883.8853.3353.330.260.26
ConnecticutAmer3.873.8743.3343.33-0.52-0.52
East CarolinaAmer3.853.8535.7135.71-1.10-1.10
TulaneAmer2.442.4446.6746.67-0.16-0.16
TulsaAmer2.392.3960.0060.000.480.48
AlabamaSEC1.661.6657.5857.580.250.25
StetsonASun1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
MissouriSEC1.631.6360.0060.000.330.33
MercerSC1.631.6355.1755.170.170.17
NebraskaB101.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
St. John'sBE1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.591.5965.5265.520.490.49
SouthernSWAC1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
West VirginiaB121.591.5969.7069.700.630.63
Gardner WebbBSth1.561.5639.2939.29-0.33-0.33
South Carolina St.MEAC1.561.5627.5927.59-0.70-0.70
William & MaryCAA1.561.5660.7160.710.330.33
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.2215.6215.62-0.15-0.15
AuburnSEC0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
New OrleansSlnd0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.180.1837.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
VillanovaBE0.150.1588.2488.240.110.11
FloridaSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
BaylorB120.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
CampbellBSth0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
TCUB120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
ArizonaP120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
OklahomaB120.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
LipscombASun0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1032.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.108.008.00-0.08-0.08
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1032.3532.35-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
KansasB120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02