live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


UCF

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:76.9
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:177
Current Record:13-4
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:236



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-530.70.03%
24-633.20.90%
23-739.83.82%
22-849.010.52%
21-960.219.64%
20-1073.224.70%
19-1188.221.40%
18-12103.912.69%
17-13121.34.79%
16-14138.21.30%
15-15155.30.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCF.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nicholls St. (254.1)SlndH80-56W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi St. (119.3)SECN86-61W100%0.0
11-18College of Charleston (73.1)CAAA40-60W100%0.0
11-20Villanova (3.3)BEN57-67L0%0.0
11-26Seattle (276.4)WACH67-51W100%0.0
11-30Stetson (327.4)ASunH81-45W100%0.0
12-3Massachusetts (105.3)A10A62-65W100%0.0
12-10Maryland Eastern Shore (306.2)MEACH76-58W100%0.0
12-12Penn (195.9)IvyH49-58L0%0.0
12-15George Washington (154.8)A10A74-59L0%0.0
12-18Miami OH (281.5)MACH80-73W100%0.0
12-21Bethune Cookman (346.6)MEACH71-41W100%0.0
12-28Tulane (281.3)AmerA72-85W100%0.0
12-31Temple (98.6)AmerH77-53W100%0.0
1-3East Carolina (235.8)AmerH48-45W100%0.0
1-8Connecticut (132.5)AmerA64-49L0%0.0
1-14Houston (46.9)AmerH77-70W100%0.0
1-17South Florida (284.3)AmerH0-093%16.2
1-22Memphis (99.1)AmerA0-040%-2.9
1-25SMU (30.7)AmerH0-039%-3.2
1-28Tulsa (114.9)AmerA0-054%1.1
2-1Houston (46.9)AmerA0-024%-7.8
2-4Memphis (99.1)AmerH0-062%3.4
2-8Cincinnati (15.2)AmerA0-012%-13.2
2-11Connecticut (132.5)AmerH0-066%4.5
2-14Tulsa (114.9)AmerH0-075%7.4
2-18East Carolina (235.8)AmerA0-072%6.4
2-22Temple (98.6)AmerA0-048%-0.7
2-26Cincinnati (15.2)AmerH0-027%-6.9
3-2South Florida (284.3)AmerA0-081%10.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCF's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCF's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCF.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCFAmer26.5126.2874.6565.4613.078.13
TempleAmer3.464.2255.5655.080.380.43
South FloridaAmer0.424.1837.5030.67-0.10-1.62
East CarolinaAmer3.274.1750.0043.390.00-0.55
ConnecticutAmer3.104.1333.3341.37-1.03-0.71
CincinnatiAmer0.324.1188.2486.840.253.03
MemphisAmer0.184.1172.2265.180.081.25
HoustonAmer3.114.1076.4773.591.651.94
TulsaAmer0.254.1056.2552.360.030.19
SMUAmer0.242.5578.9577.210.141.39
TulaneAmer2.942.5525.0021.33-1.47-1.46
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.051.8413.3325.34-2.23-0.91
George WashingtonA103.111.8347.0645.80-0.18-0.15
VillanovaBE3.211.7894.4488.812.851.38
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.021.7513.3334.94-2.22-0.53
StetsonASun3.021.7526.6728.37-1.41-0.76
College of CharlestonCAA3.101.7582.3573.292.000.81
MassachusettsA103.021.7564.7161.180.890.39
PennIvy3.101.7538.4646.07-0.71-0.14
Nicholls St.Slnd3.031.7038.4637.61-0.70-0.42
Miami OHMAC2.941.6742.8635.75-0.42-0.48
Mississippi St.SEC2.941.6780.0060.081.760.34
SeattleWAC2.941.6742.8638.57-0.42-0.38
Florida A&MMEAC0.260.2312.5020.01-0.20-0.14
George MasonA100.270.1964.7156.530.080.03
La SalleA100.240.1966.6762.150.080.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.240.1950.0047.550.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.160.1964.7167.000.050.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.1729.4134.21-0.11-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1733.3333.47-0.03-0.06
HarvardIvy0.250.1758.3361.490.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.170.0014.42-0.25-0.12
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1781.2572.930.000.08
New OrleansSlnd0.090.1546.1551.22-0.010.00
DelawareCAA0.180.1429.4127.56-0.07-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1460.0072.720.030.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.1423.0831.10-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.260.1456.2539.400.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.1458.8252.810.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.1365.0055.360.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.1288.2484.380.150.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1252.9455.240.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.1220.0024.58-0.05-0.06
North FloridaASun0.090.1218.7530.20-0.06-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.1218.7535.75-0.06-0.03
BrownIvy0.110.1250.0043.300.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1223.0831.01-0.06-0.04
YaleIvy0.180.1257.1465.270.030.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1157.1453.400.010.01
SamfordSC0.200.1164.7159.940.060.02
HowardMEAC0.170.1112.5028.47-0.13-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.1137.5044.66-0.04-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.1141.1847.61-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.080.1141.1845.41-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.1147.0649.68-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.1166.6763.320.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1156.2553.900.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.1126.6740.15-0.04-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.1125.0031.95-0.05-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.260.1188.8978.090.210.06
St. John'sBE0.260.1145.0038.60-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1137.5036.25-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.1152.6348.240.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1176.4777.720.000.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.1188.2484.300.060.07
DavidsonA100.160.1156.2555.710.020.01
ButlerBE0.080.1184.2178.360.050.06
DePaulBE0.150.1142.1130.46-0.02-0.04
XavierBE0.080.1172.2267.490.030.04
UMKCWAC0.190.0938.8940.01-0.04-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.0953.3361.470.010.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.0925.0033.65-0.10-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0956.2553.440.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0922.2225.46-0.05-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0950.0047.440.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.110.0935.2935.38-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0935.7148.96-0.03-0.00
AkronMAC0.190.0981.2573.540.120.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0917.6529.59-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.180.0962.5057.020.050.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0964.7154.930.030.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0861.1154.400.020.01
WagnerNEC0.170.0840.0049.71-0.03-0.00
MissouriSEC0.180.0831.2526.61-0.07-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0877.7882.460.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.170.0843.7537.53-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.090.0857.8950.960.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.170.0876.4768.380.090.03
Oregon St.P120.090.0817.6515.00-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.090.0853.3345.920.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.0825.0029.61-0.09-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.170.0866.6766.780.060.03
OklahomaB120.090.0843.7536.61-0.01-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0850.0058.110.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0850.0042.110.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0861.1150.470.020.00
RichmondA100.080.0864.7158.460.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0864.7161.890.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0858.8263.660.010.02
VCUA100.160.0877.7873.920.090.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0881.2576.190.050.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.0616.6718.41-0.07-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.200.0656.2559.170.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0661.1162.970.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0640.0044.63-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0622.2230.94-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0646.1545.99-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4323.21-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0049.650.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.110.0660.0066.130.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.200.0647.0640.37-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.200.0650.0034.750.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0668.7573.520.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.180.0617.6524.63-0.12-0.03
Notre DameACC0.180.0688.8977.800.140.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0614.2927.63-0.07-0.03
NavyPat0.190.0641.1843.68-0.03-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.190.0668.7569.250.070.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0614.2929.37-0.07-0.02
LafayettePat0.180.0631.2524.77-0.07-0.03
Miami FLACC0.190.0675.0063.150.090.02
The CitadelSC0.170.0635.2930.57-0.05-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0652.9457.140.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3341.38-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0660.0054.070.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0621.4327.27-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.780.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0650.0048.000.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0671.4369.670.000.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0661.1156.560.020.01
OregonP120.090.0688.2482.770.070.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0657.8952.840.010.00
TroySB0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.180.0618.7523.85-0.11-0.03
AmericanPat0.170.0623.5329.81-0.09-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0653.8558.520.000.01
MichiganB100.090.0666.6758.160.030.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0633.3337.37-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0644.4445.47-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0627.7830.30-0.04-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0643.7549.93-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0617.6535.25-0.05-0.02
South DakotaSum0.080.0657.8957.120.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.180.0620.0019.52-0.11-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0050.990.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0650.0052.220.000.00
VermontAE0.080.0673.6877.320.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0642.8647.10-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5653.980.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0656.2551.280.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0617.6527.61-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0656.2562.950.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0562.5057.280.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.170.0553.3355.860.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.160.0558.8252.990.030.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0543.7543.54-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0594.4484.740.070.04
DaytonA100.080.0575.0076.040.040.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0537.5045.32-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0535.2931.83-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0564.7161.910.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0531.2545.28-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0538.8938.40-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0566.6761.490.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0555.5660.010.000.01
MercerSC0.080.0535.2944.06-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0523.5328.53-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0573.6873.940.000.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0553.3357.150.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0513.3314.86-0.06-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0529.4125.22-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0566.6758.210.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0550.0066.220.000.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0588.2484.630.060.04
ColoradoP120.100.0352.9454.280.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0325.0028.48-0.05-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0311.1123.11-0.08-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0312.5019.03-0.07-0.02
UC DavisBW0.100.0352.9454.860.010.00
WashingtonP120.100.0347.0642.27-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0330.7736.76-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.0311.7616.67-0.08-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.0353.3354.210.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0330.7743.59-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0362.5062.550.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0331.5839.33-0.04-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0360.0061.150.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0346.1553.13-0.010.00
Texas TechB120.110.0376.4763.780.060.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0346.6745.24-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0327.7834.27-0.04-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0312.5021.96-0.07-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0337.5043.12-0.02-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0323.5324.37-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.090.0343.7541.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0355.5655.680.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0323.5328.53-0.05-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0362.5054.170.020.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0356.2553.650.010.00
IUPUISum0.100.0335.2942.41-0.03-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0362.5068.360.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0358.8257.870.020.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0327.7829.47-0.04-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0350.0051.640.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0362.5058.760.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0376.4762.000.050.01
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0326.6727.57-0.05-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0358.8254.990.020.00
Arizona St.P120.090.0350.0044.340.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0343.7543.63-0.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0375.0076.810.050.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0382.3576.960.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0364.7147.180.03-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0388.2487.320.000.02
LehighPat0.090.0356.2566.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0331.2539.84-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0384.2180.580.060.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0337.5051.06-0.020.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0356.2553.010.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0347.0643.82-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0318.7520.57-0.05-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0343.7550.72-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0347.3748.91-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.080.0338.8934.94-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6753.190.000.00
PurdueB100.080.0377.7876.220.040.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0338.8945.72-0.02-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0352.9447.220.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.0381.2565.210.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0342.1140.71-0.01-0.00
USCP120.000.0384.2172.840.000.01