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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UCF

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:68.0
Current RPI:68
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:101
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:116
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1168.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCF.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH80-56W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi St. (150.0)SECN86-61W100%0.0
11-18College of Charleston (64.0)CAAA40-60W100%0.0
11-20Villanova (1.0)BEN57-67L0%0.0
11-26Seattle (287.0)WACH67-51W100%0.0
11-30Stetson (328.0)ASunH81-45W100%0.0
12-3Massachusetts (195.0)A10A62-65W100%0.0
12-10Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH76-58W100%0.0
12-12Penn (203.0)IvyH49-58L0%0.0
12-15George Washington (102.0)A10A74-59L0%0.0
12-18Miami OH (302.0)MACH80-73W100%0.0
12-21Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH71-41W100%0.0
12-28Tulane (296.0)AmerA72-85W100%0.0
12-31Temple (137.0)AmerH77-53W100%0.0
1-3East Carolina (213.0)AmerH48-45W100%0.0
1-8Connecticut (118.0)AmerA64-49L0%0.0
1-14Houston (54.0)AmerH77-70W100%0.0
1-17South Florida (316.0)AmerH86-64W100%0.0
1-22Memphis (120.0)AmerA70-65L0%0.0
1-25SMU (13.0)AmerH60-65L0%0.0
1-28Tulsa (134.0)AmerA77-66L0%0.0
2-1Houston (54.0)AmerA82-64L0%0.0
2-4Memphis (120.0)AmerH72-57W100%0.0
2-8Cincinnati (12.0)AmerA60-50L0%0.0
2-11Connecticut (118.0)AmerH63-66L0%0.0
2-14Tulsa (134.0)AmerH71-53W100%0.0
2-18East Carolina (213.0)AmerA58-61W100%0.0
2-22Temple (137.0)AmerA69-71W100%0.0
2-26Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH53-49W100%0.0
3-2South Florida (316.0)AmerA56-59W100%0.0
3-10Memphis (120.0)AmerN84-54W100%0.0
3-11SMU (13.0)AmerN70-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCF's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UCF's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UCF.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UCFAmer26.3326.3365.0065.007.907.90
MemphisAmer5.425.4262.0762.071.311.31
ConnecticutAmer4.084.0843.3343.33-0.54-0.54
SMUAmer4.054.0587.5087.503.043.04
TempleAmer4.054.0553.3353.330.270.27
East CarolinaAmer4.034.0348.3948.39-0.13-0.13
CincinnatiAmer4.034.0387.5087.503.023.02
South FloridaAmer4.004.0025.0025.00-2.00-2.00
TulsaAmer3.973.9746.6746.67-0.26-0.26
HoustonAmer3.953.9568.9768.971.501.50
TulaneAmer2.492.4920.0020.00-1.49-1.49
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
George WashingtonA101.711.7156.2556.250.210.21
VillanovaBE1.661.6690.9190.911.361.36
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
StetsonASun1.641.6428.5728.57-0.70-0.70
MassachusettsA101.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
PennIvy1.631.6344.4444.44-0.18-0.18
College of CharlestonCAA1.631.6375.0075.000.820.82
Nicholls St.Slnd1.591.5938.4638.46-0.37-0.37
Miami OHMAC1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
Mississippi St.SEC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
SeattleWAC1.561.5638.4638.46-0.36-0.36
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
Saint Joseph'sA100.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1719.2319.23-0.11-0.11
George MasonA100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
La SalleA100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.173.333.33-0.16-0.16
Rhode IslandA100.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.150.1561.5461.540.040.04
LSUSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1332.0032.00-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1067.8667.860.040.04
NJITASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
IowaB100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
RichmondA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ButlerBE0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
XavierBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0718.5218.52-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01