UCF

Conference:	Amer
Expected RPI:	84.0
Current RPI:	84
Expected SOS:	67
Current SOS:	67
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	68
Expected OOC SOS:	125

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	84.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UCF.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	88-79	W	100%
11-15	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	68-65	W	100%
11-18	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	75-64	W	100%
11-23	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	N	68-59	W	100%
11-24	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	N	45-83	L	0%
11-26	St. John's (92.0)	BE	N	43-46	L	0%
11-30	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	H	59-62	L	0%
12-3	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	62-65	W	100%
12-9	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	76-60	W	100%
12-12	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	61-53	W	100%
12-19	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	55-74	W	100%
12-21	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	89-64	W	100%
12-27	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	56-51	L	0%
12-31	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	39-59	W	100%
1-3	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	H	65-56	W	100%
1-7	Temple (52.0)	Amer	H	60-39	W	100%
1-10	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	62-53	L	0%
1-16	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	H	38-49	L	0%
1-20	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	69-71	W	100%
1-25	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	A	81-62	L	0%
1-31	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	H	70-61	W	100%
2-3	Houston (18.0)	Amer	H	65-69	L	0%
2-6	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	77-40	L	0%
2-11	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	64-68	W	100%
2-14	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	H	72-57	W	100%
2-17	SMU (113.0)	Amer	H	52-37	W	100%
2-21	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	70-61	L	0%
2-25	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	75-56	L	0%
3-1	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	H	71-75	L	0%
3-4	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	H	60-51	W	100%
3-8	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	N	66-52	W	100%
3-9	Houston (18.0)	Amer	N	56-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UCF's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UCF's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UCF.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UCF	Amer	26.22	26.22	57.04	57.04	3.69	3.69
Cincinnati	Amer	3.99	3.99	87.50	87.50	2.99	2.99
Memphis	Amer	3.98	3.98	65.62	65.62	1.24	1.24
Houston	Amer	3.97	3.97	77.42	77.42	2.18	2.18
SMU	Amer	3.93	3.93	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
Wichita St.	Amer	3.92	3.92	76.67	76.67	2.09	2.09
South Florida	Amer	3.88	3.88	33.33	33.33	-1.29	-1.29
Temple	Amer	3.88	3.88	53.33	53.33	0.26	0.26
Connecticut	Amer	3.87	3.87	43.33	43.33	-0.52	-0.52
East Carolina	Amer	3.85	3.85	35.71	35.71	-1.10	-1.10
Tulane	Amer	2.44	2.44	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
Tulsa	Amer	2.39	2.39	60.00	60.00	0.48	0.48
Alabama	SEC	1.66	1.66	57.58	57.58	0.25	0.25
Stetson	ASun	1.64	1.64	29.63	29.63	-0.67	-0.67
Missouri	SEC	1.63	1.63	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Mercer	SC	1.63	1.63	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Nebraska	B10	1.61	1.61	70.97	70.97	0.68	0.68
St. John's	BE	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.59	1.59	65.52	65.52	0.49	0.49
Southern	SWAC	1.59	1.59	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
West Virginia	B12	1.59	1.59	69.70	69.70	0.63	0.63
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.56	1.56	39.29	39.29	-0.33	-0.33
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.56	1.56	27.59	27.59	-0.70	-0.70
William & Mary	CAA	1.56	1.56	60.71	60.71	0.33	0.33
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.22	0.22	15.62	15.62	-0.15	-0.15
Auburn	SEC	0.22	0.22	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
New Orleans	Slnd	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02